From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Intro: Mike Lieske - and a question Date: 01 Dec 1998 07:30:05 -0500 Welcome to the group, Mike. One obvious source of CANSLIM data is to pay for it from Wm O'Neil, either thru his paper (IBD), or through his Daily Graphs either on paper or online. None are cheap, but DG Online is a comprehensive source for me of CANSLIM data. Tom W -----Original Message----- Greetings group! I am a 38 years old and live in Chicago IL. I have always been fascinated with the stock market (and with making money!). However, to date I pretty much invest in mutual funds. I recently read "How to Make Money In Stocks" and want to try my hand at individual stock picking. My time is pretty limited so I have a hard time pouring through IBD hard copy. Ideally, it would be great to have as much of CANSLIM automated as possible. This is where I am looking for advice. I saw Ron Russell's weekly screen list. This is the kind of thing I am looking for in other aspects of CANSLIM as well (Institutional sponsorship, vol percent change, general market indicatores, etc.). Are there places on the web were I can find this information? Thanks! Mike L. ____________________________________________________________________ Michael G. Lieske / IBM Field Applications Engineer (847) 981-6458 t/l 788 - 6458 e-mail: mglieske@us.ibm.com ____________________________________________________________________ - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: mckeener@ix.netcom.com Subject: [CANSLIM] M cup Date: 01 Dec 1998 07:59:38 -0600 (CST) Frank, This helps a whole lot. I'm still digesting your post. Much appreciated, Mary - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Joe Scott" Subject: [CANSLIM] Three big, deep cups? Date: 01 Dec 1998 08:58:22 -0500 I'm looking at the S&P 500, Dow Industrials, and NASDAQ charts. I can't believe that I didn't see this sell off coming as clearly as it looks to me now. Even though I debated selling on Friday afternoon, I didn't. I didn't "see" these charts like I do today. Something about closing the door after the horse ran out comes to mind. All three charts look the same, huge cups starting the middle of July and coming back up to the rim on Friday. Was yesterday the start of the handles? WON writes to watch the market charts everyday, and I know I have not diligently watched the market charts like I watch stock charts. I remember reading something like, "If you don't get the market direction right all of the rest is meaningless" I'll be putting up a "speculating" ;-), or well maybe an "investing" page on my web site. I am going to post my buys, and sells to the world. I'm doing it more for myself than anything. I think if I actually have to post them for scrutiny that it might keep me a little more honest in my picks, and my timing. joe - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Johan Van Houtven Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] "M" Date: 01 Dec 1998 12:29:07 +0100 We have had 5 distribution days in 14 trading days (NASDAQ): 11/30 11/24 11/13 11/11 11/10 WON says 4 or 5 in a few weeks is enough to start selling a few stocks or at least think about selling some of the laggards or weaker stocks in your portfolio. Question for the experienced 'distribution' watchers: Am I doing the counting correctly? We have already discussed the question about whether or not one should start to count again if one encounters a 1% up day on volume. This is not the case, as can be seen on the market chart of one of the articles of WON's educational series in IBD. WON continued the count even after a clear 1% up on volume day. I do like Craig's idea about not worrying about 'the count' until you see a distribution day. Then you look back a few weeks to determine if there have been enough other distribution days in the previous weeks to start worrying about a potential top. In case anyone is interested (I track it myself because I find it interesting): Had I not sold it all on the previous distribution day, i.e. Tuesday 11/24, I could have made some nice extra money by selling during the next 2 trading days. But how could one have predicted these 2 nice days (Wednesday and Friday)? On the 3rd trading day after I sold, Monday 30/11, all positions but one, closed significantly lower than what they were sold for on Tuesday 11/24. That one exception was ELNK. Had I not sold that Tuesday, it would have made me a very nice extra profit as it shot up almost 20 points on Friday, because of a bullish write up in Business Week about a possible buyout. So the fact that I should have held that position was due to something exceptional that no one could have predicted, and therefor is of no or little interest to me re: when to sell. Another thing I'm struggling with: - Should I always sell because of WON's selling rules (which I need to study), even when we have had a couple of distribution days in a row in the last few weeks? Or is the fact that we have had a number of distribution days and the extreem bullish sentiment, enough to sell it all? Obviously I wouldn't sell thse stocks that were still going up that last distribution day. But all my positions were going down that Tuesday, and were showing weakness every time they went up again during the day it was met by more selling into strenght. To much of a daytrader perspective here maybe? On the otherhand: Why should I wait until a further 5% of the profits have disappeared and sell then? Especially when one is not afraid to rebuy lower when you notice strong support or rebuy higher when one has made a selling mistake? At 08:58 PM 30/11/98 -0500, you wrote: >Sentiment numbers up another notch late last week...Bulls at 57.9%, >Bears under 30%...Puts/Calls ratio at 5 year low which is bearish... > >distribution day on Tuesday last confirmed with a smashing down day >today on huge volume...the 'nuts (leaders) are showing weakness after >exhausting runs... > >danger... > >%'s favor the downside here for a spell, I think. Could be short-lived >with another rally to the highs before it dies a dramatic death... For >a cover signal, look for a multi-day low in the downside with a reversal >to the high of the day, unchanged to higher on an increase in daily >volume... > >JW > >- > > -- Johan Van Houtven - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com (Jeff Salisbury) Subject: [CANSLIM] Changing your canslim subscription Date: 01 Dec 1998 08:00:02 -0700 This is a monthly posting to the CANLSLIM group. Frequently, people sign up for the canslim list and then are overwhelmed by the volume of the email. There are two remedies for this problem: 1) You can leave our group, or 2) you can switch to the digest version which "conglomerates" many canslim messages into one large message. To change your configuration, email a message to: majordomo@xmission.com The remove yourself from the canslim list, write in the body of the email: unsubscribe canslim To add yourself to the digest version of the canslim list, write in the body of the email: subscribe canslim-digest For general help with majordomo commands, write in the body of the email: help If you need further clarification, write me directly at: canslim-owner@lists.xmission.com Best Regards, Jeff Salisbury - CANSLIM list admin / owner - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: dbphoenix Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] "M" Date: 01 Dec 1998 07:18:14 -0800 (PST) <<- Should I always sell because of WON's selling rules (which I need to study), even when we have had a couple of distribution days in a row in the last few weeks? Or is the fact that we have had a number of distribution days and the extreem bullish sentiment, enough to sell it all? Obviously I wouldn't sell thse stocks that were still going up that last distribution day. But all my positions were going down that Tuesday, and were showing weakness every time they went up again during the day it was met by more selling into strenght. To much of a daytrader perspective here maybe? On the otherhand: Why should I wait until a further 5% of the profits have disappeared and sell then? Especially when one is not afraid to rebuy lower when you notice strong support or rebuy higher when one has made a selling mistake?>> Your questions come from several different perspectives. In order to create an internally consistent strategy, it would be helpful to determine your viewpoint. Is it important to you to sell at or near the very top? Is it enough for you to observe the market and act according to its behavior or do you want to be predictive? Do you want to create a plan for preemptive selling or are you satisfied with the use of stops? Are you investing in a short-term or intermediate-term timeframe? What chart patterns, indicators, trendlines, ratios, etc. do you follow? Why? Which do you trust? What mistakes have you made in the past year? Why did you make them? What could you have done differently at the time, without knowing anything of what was to come, that would have resulted in a more satisfactory outcome? Do the words "distribution day" have an emotional weight for you? Do you think "imminent collapse", or are you satisfied to observe the interplay of price, volume, support and resistance? What, to you, is the purpose of a stop? Within that context, where do you place it? How much weight do you place on market activity in the placement of the stop? How much input do you receive from outside yourself? How much weight do you give it? How much do you rely on yourself and your own judgement? --Db == "Lessons are repeated until they are learned." http://home.talkcity.com/MoneySt/dbphoenix/ _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Peter Newell" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] "M" Date: 01 Dec 1998 10:22:08 -0800 Johan, Yes, I look for a 1% down day on increased volume then I look at market action then stock action. Look at the last run up we had from Jan to April there were 3 1% down days on increased volume followed by a 1% on even higher volume. On the first three the new highs went down but not much the last time the market did not come back and the new highs got zapped. Also, check out WON's articles at their web site www.investors.com, he discusses how this is somewhat normal. My take, stock action was ok still new highs still good movement to upside by stocks. I'd what to see some improvement today so far new highs are dead. I'm selling a few weak hands. Peter Newell -----Original Message----- >We have had 5 distribution days in 14 trading days (NASDAQ): > >11/30 >11/24 >11/13 >11/11 >11/10 > >WON says 4 or 5 in a few weeks is enough to start selling a few stocks or >at least think about selling some of the laggards or weaker stocks in your >portfolio. > >Question for the experienced 'distribution' watchers: Am I doing the >counting correctly? > >We have already discussed the question about whether or not one should >start to count again if one encounters a 1% up day on volume. This is not >the case, as can be seen on the market chart of one of the articles of >WON's educational series in IBD. WON continued the count even after a clear >1% up on volume day. > >I do like Craig's idea about not worrying about 'the count' until you see a >distribution day. Then you look back a few weeks to determine if there have >been enough other distribution days in the previous weeks to start worrying >about a potential top. > >In case anyone is interested (I track it myself because I find it >interesting): Had I not sold it all on the previous distribution day, i.e. >Tuesday 11/24, I could have made some nice extra money by selling during >the next 2 trading days. But how could one have predicted these 2 nice days >(Wednesday and Friday)? On the 3rd trading day after I sold, Monday 30/11, >all positions but one, closed significantly lower than what they were sold >for on Tuesday 11/24. That one exception was ELNK. Had I not sold that >Tuesday, it would have made me a very nice extra profit as it shot up >almost 20 points on Friday, because of a bullish write up in Business Week >about a possible buyout. So the fact that I should have held that position >was due to something exceptional that no one could have predicted, and >therefor is of no or little interest to me re: when to sell. > >Another thing I'm struggling with: > >- Should I always sell because of WON's selling rules (which I need to >study), even when we have had a couple of distribution days in a row in the >last few weeks? Or is the fact that we have had a number of distribution >days and the extreem bullish sentiment, enough to sell it all? Obviously I >wouldn't sell thse stocks that were still going up that last distribution >day. But all my positions were going down that Tuesday, and were showing >weakness every time they went up again during the day it was met by more >selling into strenght. To much of a daytrader perspective here maybe? On >the otherhand: Why should I wait until a further 5% of the profits have >disappeared and sell then? Especially when one is not afraid to rebuy lower >when you notice strong support or rebuy higher when one has made a selling >mistake? > >At 08:58 PM 30/11/98 -0500, you wrote: >>Sentiment numbers up another notch late last week...Bulls at 57.9%, >>Bears under 30%...Puts/Calls ratio at 5 year low which is bearish... >> >>distribution day on Tuesday last confirmed with a smashing down day >>today on huge volume...the 'nuts (leaders) are showing weakness after >>exhausting runs... >> >>danger... >> >>%'s favor the downside here for a spell, I think. Could be short-lived >>with another rally to the highs before it dies a dramatic death... For >>a cover signal, look for a multi-day low in the downside with a reversal >>to the high of the day, unchanged to higher on an increase in daily >>volume... >> >>JW >> >>- >> >> > >-- Johan Van Houtven > > > >- > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Tim Fisher Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Three big, deep cups? Date: 01 Dec 1998 08:05:32 -0800 Why is everybody talking about selling on Friday? Where in HTMMIS does it say that you should dump your holdings on the first distribution day after a run-up? Nowhere. You should let your stops take you out or sell one or two of your non-performers. I'd rather talk about what happened with that rash of breakouts we all posted. VTSS, JKHY, and INSS are perilously close to my stops right now. Got bounced out of one of my mattress stuffers (NOT CANSLIM) - AOL - very handily this morning. Too bad the ugly are pulling the good down with them today. DELL on the other hand has gone nowhere since the last false b/o and is holding up rather well, I suspect because it didn't participate in the frenzy. So is CSCO. At 08:58 AM 12/1/98 -0500, you wrote: >I'm looking at the S&P 500, Dow Industrials, and NASDAQ charts. I can't >believe that I didn't see this sell off coming as clearly as it looks to me >now. Even though I debated selling on Friday afternoon, I didn't. > >I didn't "see" these charts like I do today. Something about closing the >door after the horse ran out comes to mind. > >All three charts look the same, huge cups starting the middle of July and >coming back up to the rim on Friday. >Was yesterday the start of the handles? > >WON writes to watch the market charts everyday, and I know I have not >diligently watched the market charts like I watch stock charts. I remember >reading something like, "If you don't get the market direction right all of >the rest is meaningless" > >I'll be putting up a "speculating" ;-), or well maybe an "investing" page >on my web site. >I am going to post my buys, and sells to the world. >I'm doing it more for myself than anything. >I think if I actually have to post them for scrutiny that it might keep me a >little more honest in my picks, and my timing. > >joe > Tim Fisher, 1995 President, Pacific Fishery Biologists Ore-ROCK-On Rockhounding Web Site PFB Information mailto:tim@OreRockOn.com WWW http://OreRockOn.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Joe Scott" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Three big, deep cups? Date: 01 Dec 1998 11:17:56 -0500 Had you sold AOL on Friday I would imagine your account balance would look much better today than waiting for it to hit a sell stop,,, >>>Got bounced out of one of my mattress stuffers (NOT CANSLIM) - AOL - very handily this morning. thats what I meant buy selling some positions on Friday.. joe - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Joe Scott" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Three big, deep cups? Date: 01 Dec 1998 11:27:11 -0500 >>You should let your stops take you out or sell one or two of your non-performers. <<< We could have "taken profits" and bought them back at a much lower price once they based up again,, is that CANSLIM heresy? I don't think so,, you still like AOL right? joe - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Tim Fisher Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Three big, deep cups? Date: 01 Dec 1998 08:35:16 -0800 And if I was omnicient I'd be retired after seling all my holdings months ago and making 500% on eBay. Your point? Tell me how I could have known that AOL would be hitting sell stops today last Friday. Did you know that? What do you think sell stops are for? To protet profit or protect against an unacceptable loss. In the case of AOL I protected a 47% profit. If would have sold on Friday I would have had something like 55% profit. I don't pretend to be able to get in at the bottom and sell at the absolute top, ever. What if AOL had gone on to new highs today? How could you know which way it was going to go? Was AOL showing an exhaustion gap on Friday? It didn't look like that to me, and in any case I have better things to do than sit in front of my computer waitig to enter sell orders. Am I the only one on this list that uses sell stops to protect my profits instead of guessing when a short term top has been reached and dumping everything? At 11:17 AM 12/1/98 -0500, you wrote: >Had you sold AOL on Friday I would imagine your account balance would look >much better today than waiting for it to hit a sell stop,,, > >>>>Got bounced out of one of my mattress stuffers (NOT CANSLIM) - AOL - >very handily this morning. > >thats what I meant buy selling some positions on Friday.. > >joe > > > >- > Tim Fisher, 1995 President, Pacific Fishery Biologists Ore-ROCK-On Rockhounding Web Site PFB Information mailto:tim@OreRockOn.com WWW http://OreRockOn.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Tim Fisher Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Three big, deep cups? Date: 01 Dec 1998 08:38:42 -0800 I'm getting a little tired of this. Quote me the text in HTMMIS that suggests you "take profits" on a strong up day following a series of up days in which most of the indices made a series of new highs. At 11:27 AM 12/1/98 -0500, you wrote: >>>You should let your stops take you out or sell one or two of >your non-performers. <<< > >We could have "taken profits" and bought them back at a much lower price >once they based up again,, >is that CANSLIM heresy? >I don't think so,, you still like AOL right? > >joe > Tim Fisher, 1995 President, Pacific Fishery Biologists Ore-ROCK-On Rockhounding Web Site PFB Information mailto:tim@OreRockOn.com WWW http://OreRockOn.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Dave Wood" Subject: [CANSLIM] snrz Date: 01 Dec 1998 11:45:50 -0500 I have a question concerning institutional sponsorship and QUOTESPLUS. I have found two wildly varying figures for the amount of snrz shares held by institutions. According to the ' fundamentals page ' of QUOTESPLUS2 95.00 % of the shares are under institutions, but another sources puts the figure at only 25.00 %. Can anyone tell me if Quotesplus calculates the figure differently. Dave - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: musicant@autobahn.org (Dan Musicant) Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Three big, deep cups? Date: 01 Dec 1998 16:46:29 GMT On Tue, 01 Dec 1998 08:05:32 -0800, you wrote: :Why is everybody talking about selling on Friday? Where in HTMMIS does = it say :that you should dump your holdings on the first distribution day after a :run-up? Nowhere. You should let your stops take you out or sell one or = two of :your non-performers. I'd rather talk about what happened with that rash = of :breakouts we all posted. VTSS, JKHY, and INSS are perilously close to my= stops :right now. Got bounced out of one of my mattress stuffers (NOT CANSLIM) = - AOL - :very handily this morning. Too bad the ugly are pulling the good down = with them :today. DELL on the other hand has gone nowhere since the last false b/o = and is :holding up rather well, I suspect because it didn't participate in the = frenzy. :So is CSCO.=20 Let's see. On friday, my one holding was down .75/24 =3D 3%. That would have been OK. I saw an additional 7% erosion yesterday before I pulled the plug. Today, it's down 2% more. Dan - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: dbphoenix Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Three big, deep cups? Date: 01 Dec 1998 08:53:57 -0800 (PST) <> No, Tim, you're not. But you and Joe are following two different strategies. And each of you could quote chapter and verse from The Book to support your position. Best to just acknowledge the difference in strategies. I agree with your point of view. I do not consider CS to be a short-term trading vehicle. Neither do I see the point in preemptive selling as it implies a requirement to predict. And, as we know, O'N prefers that the investor base his decisions on what the market is doing, not what he thinks it's going to do. On the other hand, if one is going to jump from stock to stock and always be within a hair of triggering a stop, it makes perfect sense to be preemptive since this strategy encourages fear much more than buying deep and staying there, and the only way to calm that fear is to sell. I asked Johan the questions I did because they're much the same questions I asked myself not too long ago when I felt I needed a "readjustment". I wrote in my journal at my website that I'd gone over my notes for the past couple of years to see where the money was coming from and where the losses were coming from. That exercise put me back on track. But my track isn't everyone's track. The most common complaint I get in my mailbox regards stops. But it's impossible to apply them properly until one decides what kind of investor he is. Both you and Joe know what kind of investors you are. You just don't happen to be the same kind. Therefore, you use stops differently. However, anyone who hasn't gone through the process of asking himself some basic questions isn't going to have the least idea of how to use them at all. --Db == "Lessons are repeated until they are learned." http://home.talkcity.com/MoneySt/dbphoenix/ _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: musicant@autobahn.org (Dan Musicant) Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Three big, deep cups? Date: 01 Dec 1998 16:50:13 GMT On Tue, 01 Dec 1998 08:38:42 -0800, you wrote: :I'm getting a little tired of this. Quote me the text in HTMMIS that = suggests :you "take profits" on a strong up day following a series of up days in = which :most of the indices made a series of new highs. I forget who it was, but WON quoted a successful trader who said his secret of success was simply to never buy at the bottom and never sell at the top. Buys on the way up, sells on the way up, IOW. Trying to anticipate the top, or selling on the way down are something different. Dan :At 11:27 AM 12/1/98 -0500, you wrote: :>>>You should let your stops take you out or sell one or two of :>your non-performers. <<< :> :>We could have "taken profits" and bought them back at a much lower = price :>once they based up again,, :>is that CANSLIM heresy? :>I don't think so,, you still like AOL right? :> :>joe :> : :Tim Fisher, 1995 President, Pacific Fishery Biologists :Ore-ROCK-On Rockhounding Web Site :PFB Information :mailto:tim@OreRockOn.com :WWW http://OreRockOn.com : :- - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Joe Scott" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Three big, deep cups? Date: 01 Dec 1998 11:59:03 -0500 >>>>>I'm getting a little tired of this. <<< Didn't mean to ruffle your feathers,, I'll concede that you are much more knowledgeable about CANSLIM practices than I. joe - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Joe Scott" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Three big, deep cups? Date: 01 Dec 1998 12:19:28 -0500 After looking at the charts of the S&P, NAZDAQ, and DOW, it just was so clear to me that it was the perfect day to take profits, friday that is,, indexs were up big wed, and fri, good volume. When I look back (hidesight for sure) I see the blow off when those index's came back to Julys highs again, and sure enough Monday was a profit taking day.. I'm not saying I would have sold everything, I have some positions that wouldn't have been affected by a profit taking day,, but I also have a few others similiar to AOL that were, I know which positions I have that will be hardest hit in a profit taking day.. I should have anticipated that sell off,, yes,, should have,, no excuse.. Hate that "should have stuff" joe and to Tim, I apologize if you felt I was attacking you or your thoughts on this. - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: dbphoenix Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Three big, deep cups? Date: 01 Dec 1998 10:36:24 -0800 (PST) <> He also quoted a successful trader who said that his secret of success was to buy right and sit tight. There's something for everyone and every point-of-view in HTMMIS. At bottom is what strategy enables you to maintain your discipline and focus, sleep at night, and make money. O'N does not advocate unquestioning buy-and-hold. But he does advocate holding on to your winners through minor corrections. O'N does not advocate trading in and out of stocks to the point where you're churning your own account. But he does advocate the use of stop-loss and profit-taking as a money management strategy. Approaching CS without preconceived notions is not a simple task. But it's made far easier by concentrating on O'N's recent series than on the book. --Db == "Lessons are repeated until they are learned." http://home.talkcity.com/MoneySt/dbphoenix/ _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Craig Griffin Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Three big, deep cups? Date: 01 Dec 1998 13:38:44 -0500 For Canslim'rs: If you have been holding stocks bought in breakouts, I don't have any idea why Friday would have been a sell signal per O'Neil. Neither do I see that yesterday's (Monday's) big reversal down would have been a sell signal. Yesterday I sold one of my weaker and more speculative holdings on a very tight stop loss. A couple of my other holdings tested the top of their base today on the initial gap down continuation of yesterday's selloff. Everything else held well above the top of the base and above my buying point. After ignoring the gap down, I bought a little in a stock that had come down to within it's buying range (pivot +10%) and was moving back up nicely. So I must agree with Tim Fisher ... I don't see a sell signal per O'Neil. For daytraders & short term traders: The facts that we have had a couple of distribution days lately and that we are testing all time highs and that this run from the bottom has been like a bottle rocket - might have kept me with my hand close to the trigger. I almost sold several things on that gap up opening Monday morning (the entire market gapped up and the low quality internet stocks have been exploding the last couple of days). That was clearly a short term top. If you wanted to be nimble and sell into it and buy back this morning or later - cool. But it is not Canslim investing, rather I would say it was daytrading using the knowledge of the market that can be gained with Canslim. Back to Canslim: With the market at resistance (old highs), and having had a tremendous run, and with lots of turkeys flying (speculation), I do expect a rest here. How long it will last or how far we will pullback is anybody's guess. My take on it is that this is a well deserved breather until proven otherwise ... although we might get some sell signals and the charts certainly support the possibility of a double top in the indices. Somehow, with quality companies such as MSFT and WCOM breaking out lately, I doubt a major retracement at this point. One never knows. "One day at a time." As far as having a trailing stop on a stock that one is well ahead on - in order to protect profits - I have never seen or heard O'Neil recommend such. If he has, I wish someone would point me to the "chapter and verse". The selling rules do say not to let a profit turn into a loss after being ahead 15% or so (essentially moving your stop to just ahead of your buying price). However, had I honored that point intraday today - I would have sold ATHM on the gap down at 54, but I used my judgement to hang on - due to yesterday's action and a sense that there was panic in the market at the open. If appears it will close today below 53, I will probably sell - but at this point that appears unlikely. The selling rules also give lots of other factors that would lead one to sell a stock. However, unless a couple of those come into play, O'Neil says to try to hold through the first base a stock makes after you buy it at the beginning of a new bull market. Assuming, for example, that a stock moves 35% after you buy and then forms a 20% base - with a 15% trailing stop, you will always get stopped out and never accomplish a long/intermediate term hold (which of course may not be your goal, but it is a goal of Canslim). IMO, when holding a Leader, it is wise to try to ride the bucking bronco for big gains once you are well ahead, because it takes so much less work than trading (unless those specific selling rules come into play). Canslim is supposed to work for those who do not have time to watch the market more than a couple of times a day (intraday) - and then just to actions of their stocks for any problems and to look for new breakouts and to get a sense of what the market is doing. Then at night look at the indicators and for new bases. This allows you to hold a job and still do Canslim. Of course, there is nothing wrong with applying the principles to help you make money any way you want to. I have used elements of what both Joe and Tim have been saying many times myself (as I mentioned, I was tempted to do a lot of selling on the gap up open yesterday). However, to strictly use Canslim the way O'Neil teaches it, to the best of my understanding, yesterday was just one more distribution day (and a bit frightening in its intensity, but no cause for panic). I basicly sat tight. Today I nibbled a tiny bit. Best Regards, Craig - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Tim Fisher Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Three big, deep cups? Date: 01 Dec 1998 10:53:13 -0800 DB said it better than I ever could, of course, but look at what you wrote: >I should have anticipated that sell off,, yes,, should have,, no excuse.. That is not CANSLIM at all, it's your own strategy; according to HTMMIS you don't need to "anticipate" anything; you let the market tell you where it is headed. I argue that by the rules of CANSLIM, however verbose, loose, and difficult to interpret the are, you should have NOT anticipated anything, but should have set stops on each holding according to how much risk you are willing to take. Personally I don't follow the zillion excuses for selling in the book, as they would bump me out of almost everything I ever have bought without much profit, but I firmly believe in and have adopted, for better or worse, stops as a reasonable method to protect myself from losing significant sums of money. On 09:19 AM 12/1/98 , Joe Scott Said: >After looking at the charts of the S&P, NAZDAQ, and DOW, it just was so >clear to me that it was the perfect day to take profits, friday that is,, >indexs were up big wed, and fri, good volume. >When I look back (hidesight for sure) I see the blow off when those index's >came back to Julys highs again, and sure enough Monday was a profit taking >day.. I'm not saying I would have sold everything, I have some positions >that wouldn't have been affected by a profit taking day,, but I also have a >few others similiar to AOL that were, I know which positions I have that >will be hardest hit in a profit taking day.. >I should have anticipated that sell off,, yes,, should have,, no excuse.. >Hate that "should have stuff" > >joe > >and to Tim, I apologize if you felt I was attacking you or your thoughts on >this. > Tim Fisher Ore-Rock-On and Pacific Fishery Biologists WWW Sites Tim@OreRockOn.com WWW: http://OreRockOn.com See naked fish and rocks! - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: mckeener@ix.netcom.com Subject: [CANSLIM] IBI CBP WATR Date: 01 Dec 1998 13:11:48 -0600 (CST) Tom, Ditto. Mary - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Johan Van Houtven Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Three big, deep cups? Date: 01 Dec 1998 20:43:29 +0100 Excellent post. You have a gift of explaining things clearly and understandably. While I do have a minor critique on 1 point, I'm going to hold it for myself, as it is not that important. Besides now that I know what I'm doing is 'cool' I am going to lay back and enjoy that feeling for while. Thanks, Craig. Craig wrote >If you wanted to be nimble and sell into it and buy back this morning or later >- cool. Johan - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: mckeener@ix.netcom.com Subject: [CANSLIM] Three big, deep cups? Date: 01 Dec 1998 13:50:24 -0600 (CST) Tim, I do also, but I've been stopped a lot lately due to the volatility in the market. I'm not sure when to get back into a stock I've been stopped out of if the chart and fundamentals meet CANSLIM criteria. Do you? I don't particularly like paying more for the same stock, yet don't want to lose profits either. Mary - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Joe Scott" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Three big, deep cups? Date: 01 Dec 1998 14:57:20 -0500 >>Excellent post. You have a gift of explaining things clearly and understandably.>> I agree, excellent Craig Yours too Db,, ;-) joe still kicking myself for not being a little more "nimble" CS or not... maybe I'm just being a "pig" ,, sure don't want to do that,, I know that can get me in trouble,, been there,, done that... - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: mckeener@ix.netcom.com Subject: [CANSLIM] Three big, deep cups? Date: 01 Dec 1998 13:59:49 -0600 (CST) Craig, Thanks for your post. I needed that. Mary - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: dbphoenix Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Three big, deep cups? Date: 01 Dec 1998 12:07:00 -0800 (PST) <> This is where knowing something about the interaction among price, volume, support, and resistance comes in handy. And even O'N gets into all this. But where he'd have you wait for another base, I'm more likely to buy back if I see the stock bouncing strongly off support, particularly if it's doing it for the second time. I suppose he doesn't counsel this because it's tough to make it mechanical. But I certainly wouldn't wait for a new high in these circumstances. In a volatile market, you'd be selling low and buying high over and over again. --Db == "Lessons are repeated until they are learned." http://home.talkcity.com/MoneySt/dbphoenix/ _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: dbphoenix Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Three big, deep cups? Date: 01 Dec 1998 12:06:58 -0800 (PST) Craig is the undisputed ZenMaster of CANSLIM around here. We should all want to be Craig when we grow up. I've still got posts of his that are yellowing around the edges. IMO, if O'N ever did a rewrite of HTMMIS (yeah, right), Craig is the one who ought to do it. Here's to ya, Craig. Wax on, wax off. --Db == "Lessons are repeated until they are learned." http://home.talkcity.com/MoneySt/dbphoenix/ _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Craig Griffin Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Three big, deep cups? Date: 01 Dec 1998 15:28:10 -0500 Thanks for all the kind words folks. Now if I don't watch it, my head will swell and the market will quickly "teach me some humility" (again) as Tom says . Best Regards - Craig - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Craig Griffin Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] "M" Date: 01 Dec 1998 17:07:26 -0500 At 12:29 PM 12/1/98 +0100, Johan wrote: >WON says 4 or 5 in a few weeks is enough to start selling a few stocks or >at least think about selling some of the laggards or weaker stocks in your >portfolio. > >Question for the experienced 'distribution' watchers: Am I doing the >counting correctly? I think so and I was tempted to sell one of my laggards into today's strength for that reason and because Monday so clearly appears to be a short term top (but if I knew that with certainty I would be rich already). >I do like Craig's idea about not worrying about 'the count' until you see a >distribution day. Then you look back a few weeks to determine if there have >been enough other distribution days in the previous weeks to start worrying >about a potential top. If I understand you correctly, I think Jeffry White wrote it (see quote below regarding smashing down day). He is one of the best around at reading the market and I always look forward to seeing his analysis. I do think it is important to notice the distribution days along the way as they occur, but it is not necessary to worry about it until you get some sort of warning (like Monday). I am unsure whether it should be treated as the first "sell signal" or not (my sense is no). A quick rally failure here would convince me that we have a sell signal. For example, if you look at 11/11/98, note that we rallied on to new highs a few days later without a "rally failure in between", so all was ok. Today, we have a strong rally, but not yet back to new highs, and on slightly lower volume (although volume on the NYSE actually picked up). If we undercut 1949 on the NASDAQ on a closing basis - that would be a definite sell signal (sell one or two of your weakest stocks). I would also be inclined to treat a new distribution day tomorrow (higher volume than today) as a sell signal (when coupled with the last few days of action). >Another thing I'm struggling with ... (snipped) I think a lot of your concerns in this area revolve around your daytrade type thinking. The overall trend on these stocks is still up. By definition, an intermediate term hold is going to run into lots of resistance on the way up when it forms a new base. Your approach is too time intensive for those who must hold day jobs, but may lead to superior returns for you if you have the time and knack for it (as you clearly do). It is much harder to learn (for most people) than Canslim. Thanks as always, for sharing your thoughts Johan - you certainly made me backup and review what I was doing as far as my read on the market. One thing I did was look back at prior tops and corrections over the last couple of years, as well as re-examine the recent distribution days. > >At 08:58 PM 30/11/98 -0500, Jeffry wrote: >>distribution day on Tuesday last confirmed with a smashing down day >>today on huge volume...the 'nuts (leaders) are showing weakness after >>exhausting runs... >> >>danger... >> >>%'s favor the downside here for a spell, I think. Could be short-lived >>with another rally to the highs before it dies a dramatic death... For >>a cover signal, look for a multi-day low in the downside with a reversal >>to the high of the day, unchanged to higher on an increase in daily >>volume... >> >>JW >> >>- >> >> > >-- Johan Van Houtven > Best Regards, Craig - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Tim Fisher Subject: [CANSLIM] I GIVE UP Date: 01 Dec 1998 13:58:33 -0800 OK what the heck happened today? Any analysis which makes sense will be appreciated, since I can't make any sense of this gyrating BS. E.g. AOL gaps down to 81 on the open, taking out a pile of stops no doubt, then closes UP 2.7% (yes, it IS sour grapes!). Meanwhile MSFT jumps back to the all time high reached Monday morning at the open (conveniently right where I bot it), DELL powers back to the top of the channel it has been trading in the past X weeks, CSCO and CPWR are in new high territory. Trading ranges on my holdings are unbelievably huge, looks like more than a shakeout than just a plain old good day. Tim Fisher Ore-Rock-On and Pacific Fishery Biologists WWW Sites Tim@OreRockOn.com WWW: http://OreRockOn.com See naked fish and rocks! - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "S Menon" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Three big, deep cups? Date: 01 Dec 1998 15:26:26 PST > >I forget who it was, but WON quoted a successful trader who said his >secret of success was simply to never buy at the bottom and never sell >at the top. Buys on the way up, sells on the way up, IOW. Trying to >anticipate the top, or selling on the way down are something >different. > >Dan But then you could miss some incredible run ups. For example, I bought SUNW at around 47-48 and sold at 61 3/4. If you look at the chart probably you will know why I got out at that point. I kick myself everyday for that stupid mistake. It was a decent profit but...SUNW is at 80 now! Same thing happend for INTC. Got out around 86 or so following Merrill Lynch's Tom Kurlack's (spelling?) downgrade. He made a good call (bearish) last year when everybody was upbeat about INTC. This year the guy was dead wrong. INTC is at 115 ! Regards SMenon ______________________________________________________ Get Your Private, Free Email at http://www.hotmail.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Krukever Subject: [CANSLIM] Message-ID: <071cf14312301c8NS2@arnet.com.ar> Date: 01 Dec 1998 20:31:16 -0300 PTVL and ELNK going down increasing their volume... not a good choice for now... AEOS and ANN seem to be a good chance. SALUDOS, DIEGO KRUKEVER.- - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: David Reid Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] I GIVE UP Date: 01 Dec 1998 19:15:45 -0800 I guess that is what you call a whipsaw. But if you notice the leaders got most of their losses back in ONE day, and those crazy second tier internet stocks had losses again. I think it would be a positive sign if the leaders and the broader market madcap continued strong and some of these speculative stocks move down or sideways. I actually wanted to buy some aol but it ran away from me again today. oh well maybe next time. Tim Fisher wrote: > OK what the heck happened today? Any analysis which makes sense will be > appreciated, since I can't make any sense of this gyrating BS. > > E.g. AOL gaps down to 81 on the open, taking out a pile of stops no doubt, then > closes UP 2.7% (yes, it IS sour grapes!). Meanwhile MSFT jumps back to the all > time high reached Monday morning at the open (conveniently right where I bot > it), DELL powers back to the top of the channel it has been trading in the past > X weeks, CSCO and CPWR are in new high territory. Trading ranges on my > holdings are unbelievably huge, looks like more than a shakeout than just a > plain old good day. > > Tim Fisher > Ore-Rock-On and Pacific Fishery Biologists WWW Sites > > Tim@OreRockOn.com > WWW: http://OreRockOn.com > See naked fish and rocks! > > - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] snrz Date: 01 Dec 1998 22:24:57 -0500 Hi Dave, Can't comment on how QP2 does the count, but can give you the data from DGO and review how they do the count. DGO shows 19.2 mil shares outstanding and a float of 12.8 mil. They show management with a 32% holding and funds with 60% position. Banks are reported with an additional 14%. What does this all mean in real numbers? Well, the "management" percentage is of the total issue (19.2 mil) which pretty well accounts for the difference between the issue and the float (difference is 6.4 mil and 32% of the issue would be 6.15 mil). The funds and banks percentage is measured by DGO as a percentage of the "float", not the issue, thus you can't add all these percentages together. This would indicate that the funds hold 60% of 12.8 mil, or slightly more than 7.5 mil. The banks holdings are not directly additive to the funds, as there can be some duplication between them. Still, the banks would take between a million and a million and a half shares of the float, for a total of 8.5 to 9 mil shares in stronger hands. This still leaves 3.8 to 4.3 mil shares freely trading. With an ADV of 438,900 shares, I would suspect that this data is stale, and more shares are actually freely trading, either thru insider sales or thru the funds lightening up. Remember that a lot can have happened since the last reports of funds and banks positions on 9/30. Now if you looked at the same data at a different site, where the funds holdings were measured as a percentage of the issue rather than the float, the funds would only show a 39% presence rather than 60%. A good example of why it's important to know how your favorite site reports things, and be consistent in what site you use. And if the funds have been selling since 9/30, their stake could be substantially less. Tom W -----Original Message----- I have a question concerning institutional sponsorship and QUOTESPLUS. I have found two wildly varying figures for the amount of snrz shares held by institutions. According to the ' fundamentals page ' of QUOTESPLUS2 95.00 % of the shares are under institutions, but another sources puts the figure at only 25.00 %. Can anyone tell me if Quotesplus calculates the figure differently. Dave - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: WON on protecting profits (was Re: [CANSLIM] Three big, deep cups?) Date: 01 Dec 1998 22:41:35 -0500 Hi Craig, I can't say I have been that surprised at how this week has progressed so far, including a pretty impressive reversal today. This mkt has been needing to take a breather for some time, esp on the internet stocks. And I fully agree with the many comments that it's important to look at how you are trying to trade/invest in the mkt. The day/short term traders must, by definition, be far more reactive in high volatility than the long term investors. As to WON advising on trailing stops to protect profits, I will try to find the article published many years ago in the magazine "Registered Representatives". At the time I sent copies to many clients. From memory, he advocated the basic 8% stop loss based on your entry point, and not changing this stop till you were either stopped out or up at least 15%. If up 15%, he then advocated moving the stop to a point 8% down from the current trading price as a "profit protection" mechanism, with further adjustments higher if the stock continued up. The article was published in this magazine (a trade journal for stock brokers) somewhere around '91 or early '92, back in the good ole days when a 50 pt move in the Dow really meant something. As far as I know, this was an idea WON only shared with stock brokers, I have never seen it in print elsewhere quite so clearly. Tom W -----Original Message----- Back to Canslim: With the market at resistance (old highs), and having had a tremendous run, and with lots of turkeys flying (speculation), I do expect a rest here. How long it will last or how far we will pullback is anybody's guess. My take on it is that this is a well deserved breather until proven otherwise As far as having a trailing stop on a stock that one is well ahead on - in order to protect profits - I have never seen or heard O'Neil recommend such. If he has, I wish someone would point me to the "chapter and verse". - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Rich Ralph Subject: [CANSLIM] Can EPS numbers be trusted? Date: 01 Dec 1998 23:20:39 -0500 Hi Folks, I've been reading more and more about the controversy surrounding the "new & creative" accounting practices that many newer companies are using, and I wonder: can the EPS numbers that CANSLIM relies so heavily upon be trusted? Since EPS comes from revenue numbers, can the actual and projected EPS be reliable indicators for growth? Below are excerpts from a recent TheStreet.com story that is pretty typical of what I've been reading on this issue: TheStreet.com; Herb on TheStreet: Why Aggressive Accounting Paid for America Online, 11/24/98, "you can't help but wonder if the company [AOL] would've gotten this far, this quickly, if it hadn't starting out using aggressive accounting"? same article, quoting a piece from The Wall Street Journal last June, in which AOL's then CFO, Len Leader says, "The Internet group of companies is doing business in very new ways that have not been tested in terms of business norms and accounting." -- so in other words he's saying, do whatever it takes until you've gotta stop. After all, once you've raised the cash, you won't have to give it back. And it's not just net stocks that are pushing the envelope, (or the balance sheet). The above article mentions that in Barron's, weekend before last, a piece on Safeskin had the same criticism about their accounting practices. Is anyone else concerned about this? Best regards, Rich Ralph - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "John Adair, M.D." Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Can EPS numbers be trusted? Date: 01 Dec 1998 22:57:28 -0600 Hi Rich Aol has a neat way of raising cash. When you terminate the service they continue billing you.My son and I both dropped the service and got bills for six months before we became aware since we didont check the credit cards carefully. When I called them on it they readily refunded the proper amount. Just think how many are billed this way and how much it brings in They collect the interest and refund you the principal. John Adair Rich Ralph wrote: > Hi Folks, > > I've been reading more and more about the controversy surrounding the "new > & creative" accounting practices that many newer companies are using, and I > wonder: can the EPS numbers that CANSLIM relies so heavily upon be trusted? > Since EPS comes from revenue numbers, can the actual and projected EPS be > reliable indicators for growth? Below are excerpts from a recent > TheStreet.com story that is pretty typical of what I've been reading on > this issue: > > TheStreet.com; Herb on TheStreet: Why Aggressive Accounting Paid for > America Online, 11/24/98, "you can't help but wonder if the company [AOL] > would've gotten this far, this quickly, if it hadn't starting out using > aggressive accounting"? > > same article, quoting a piece from The Wall Street Journal last June, in > which AOL's then CFO, Len Leader says, "The Internet group of companies is > doing business in very new ways that have not been tested in terms of > business norms and accounting." > -- so in other words he's saying, do whatever it takes until you've gotta > stop. After all, once you've raised the cash, you won't have to give it back. > > And it's not just net stocks that are pushing the envelope, (or the balance > sheet). The above article mentions that in Barron's, weekend before last, > a piece on Safeskin had the same criticism about their accounting practices. > > Is anyone else concerned about this? > > Best regards, > Rich Ralph > > - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "John Adair, M.D." Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Can EPS numbers be trusted? Date: 01 Dec 1998 22:57:28 -0600 Hi Rich Aol has a neat way of raising cash. When you terminate the service they continue billing you.My son and I both dropped the service and got bills for six months before we became aware since we didont check the credit cards carefully. When I called them on it they readily refunded the proper amount. Just think how many are billed this way and how much it brings in They collect the interest and refund you the principal. John Adair Rich Ralph wrote: > Hi Folks, > > I've been reading more and more about the controversy surrounding the "new > & creative" accounting practices that many newer companies are using, and I > wonder: can the EPS numbers that CANSLIM relies so heavily upon be trusted? > Since EPS comes from revenue numbers, can the actual and projected EPS be > reliable indicators for growth? Below are excerpts from a recent > TheStreet.com story that is pretty typical of what I've been reading on > this issue: > > TheStreet.com; Herb on TheStreet: Why Aggressive Accounting Paid for > America Online, 11/24/98, "you can't help but wonder if the company [AOL] > would've gotten this far, this quickly, if it hadn't starting out using > aggressive accounting"? > > same article, quoting a piece from The Wall Street Journal last June, in > which AOL's then CFO, Len Leader says, "The Internet group of companies is > doing business in very new ways that have not been tested in terms of > business norms and accounting." > -- so in other words he's saying, do whatever it takes until you've gotta > stop. After all, once you've raised the cash, you won't have to give it back. > > And it's not just net stocks that are pushing the envelope, (or the balance > sheet). The above article mentions that in Barron's, weekend before last, > a piece on Safeskin had the same criticism about their accounting practices. > > Is anyone else concerned about this? > > Best regards, > Rich Ralph > > - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: dbphoenix Subject: [CANSLIM] Non-CANSLIM--Marder and the Internets Date: 01 Dec 1998 21:00:42 -0800 (PST) Marder's got a new piece out on the Internets. http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/current/marder.htx?source=htx/http2_mw --Db == "Lessons are repeated until they are learned." http://home.talkcity.com/MoneySt/dbphoenix/ _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Can EPS numbers be trusted? Date: 01 Dec 1998 23:41:38 -0500 Rich, I'm not esp concerned about this, the practice is nothing new in the publicly owned securities field. Go back and look at BV some years ago, when one astute analyst dared to question their accounting practices, including using a 30 year lifetime to amortize the goodwill and inventory costs of acquired small regional video distributor chains. He had the audacity to point out that video tapes didn't physically last as long as they were amortizing the inventory, and what was worse, there was no likelihood that videos would still be in use in 30 years the way technology was going. BV's response was to bluster and deny, but over the next year they changed their accounting practices to account for almost everything that analyst had said. DGO, IBD, DG in paper all use the same source, Fed Filings by public companies. To the degree that you trust this source, their data is equally trustworthy. Having had the experience of owning a company willing to run the risks of filing a totally false report with the SEC, I temper my acceptance with considerable reading and scrutiny, then use my own judgement. With anything new, and internet stocks still fall in this category, I expect they will test the envelope. But GAAP (Generally Accepted Accounting Principles) is also constantly revising how finances should be reported. Bottom line, if you take the time to read enough 10Qs and 10Ks, and you encounter one that doesn't make a lot of sense, you don't have to be an accountant to steer clear. Tom W -----Original Message----- Hi Folks, I've been reading more and more about the controversy surrounding the "new & creative" accounting practices that many newer companies are using, and I wonder: can the EPS numbers that CANSLIM relies so heavily upon be trusted? Since EPS comes from revenue numbers, can the actual and projected EPS be reliable indicators for growth? Below are excerpts from a recent TheStreet.com story that is pretty typical of what I've been reading on this issue: TheStreet.com; Herb on TheStreet: Why Aggressive Accounting Paid for America Online, 11/24/98, "you can't help but wonder if the company [AOL] would've gotten this far, this quickly, if it hadn't starting out using aggressive accounting"? same article, quoting a piece from The Wall Street Journal last June, in which AOL's then CFO, Len Leader says, "The Internet group of companies is doing business in very new ways that have not been tested in terms of business norms and accounting." -- so in other words he's saying, do whatever it takes until you've gotta stop. After all, once you've raised the cash, you won't have to give it back. And it's not just net stocks that are pushing the envelope, (or the balance sheet). The above article mentions that in Barron's, weekend before last, a piece on Safeskin had the same criticism about their accounting practices. Is anyone else concerned about this? Best regards, Rich Ralph - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] I GIVE UP Date: 02 Dec 1998 00:14:11 -0500 Tim, I'll be the last to suggest I can "make sense" of today's trading, but will share my observations and thoughts. First, the global picture - the selloff on Monday (long overdue, especially with the mania on internet stocks) led to a selloff in Asia, which led to an even stronger selloff (return to sanity) in Europe), which led to a weak opening on Wall St. Second, also globally, nothing still has really changed on a fundamental basis. Third, in Japan, you have an incompetent and recently hired "old guard" traditionalist Finance Minister finally admitting he can't handle the job necessary to bring back one of the more important economies in the world. And at least he plans to step down, but time frame uncertain. Meanwhile, the announcement is overlaid by another Japanese bankruptcy filing, this time in the construction industry. Not a positive omen. Fourth, you have oil producers failing to take any new initiative to bolster still falling crude prices, again overlaid by the largest merger in history (Mobil/Exxon). There is much perception that the oil industry is in an era of "survival of the fittest", with many failures to follow. And among the major oil producers, there is much rumor of an "oil production war" to punish those failing to comply with production cuts, with hints of Mexico, Venezuela, and Saudi Arabia among others opening the flood gates of production (which should guarantee crude falling below $10 a barrel if it happens). Fifth, you have other commodities prices continuing to fall to historically low prices, amidst further economic reports showing quite clearly that the US economy continues to shrink despite the Fed cuts. This once again opens the door to further speculation on addl Fed cuts sooner rather than later. Meantime you also have the hopes of a rate cut in Germany once again dashed, at least till after the Euro commences 1/1/99 (hummmm, seems I've heard that here before, but now the market place is becoming a believer, thus strengthening the mark and weakening the dollar). Sixth, you still have a tremendous amount of cash sitting on the sidelines and pent up wanting to chase an ever rising mkt. Watch the action between the bond and stock mkt, they are once again closely tied as money moves back and forth. And remember that cash is constantly flowing in every month, looking for a home. So it's not just the sum of money that recently moved out of stocks into bonds, it's also the addl money that had moved into the investment community and has to be put somewhere. Seventh, watch VIX, it's moving back up. More volatility means more action, in both directions. Eighth, we're still pretty much at some sig resistance levels, expect further volatility, and large swings. It becomes that much more important to evaluate individual stocks on an individual basis, not on what the "market" is doing, or even groups or sectors. Ninth, the falling price of crude oil, as well as this weekend's election in Venezuela, cast even more "fear" of country and regional collapse into the "sentiment" factor. As emotions play an increasing part in decision making, expect volatility to swing even more wildly without logic playing as great a part. Tenth, pay attention to the speculative fever in internet stocks. There's a lot of inexperienced money being attracted to the astronomical gains possible if the past few weeks, heck days, performance can be repeated. Eleventh, my verbosity no longer surpasses my hunger pangs, time to go fix some dinner and get back to the basics of CANSLIM. The strength of today's impressive reversal cannot be ignored, nor should the risks. Both the stock and currency futures right now suggest some minor strengths, but Asian trading is contradictory. In Japan, which opened with minor gains, they are now showing minor losses. Other exchanges have also reversed opening levels. All in all, seems neutral to me, and little reaction to a strong reversal in the US mkt today. However, I expect the US mkt tomorrow will be affected more by how Europe does on 12/2 than how Asia does tonight. Tom W -----Original Message----- OK what the heck happened today? Any analysis which makes sense will be appreciated, since I can't make any sense of this gyrating BS. - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Patrick Wahl" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Three big, deep cups? Date: 01 Dec 1998 22:49:47 -0800 > We could have "taken profits" and bought them back at a much lower price > once they based up again,, > is that CANSLIM heresy? > I don't think so,, you still like AOL right? Very doubtful proposition. A few thoughts on this - You have to know when a short term top occurs and sell at the right time. You are going to miss these sometimes and watch the stock go on without you. If you are waiting for a base, you might never get a clear breakout for the next move (look at CPWR). You might miss it, you will certainly give up a point or two (there go a few percent) before you get back in as the stock breaks out of a base. You are going to pay taxes on your capital gains a couple of times instead of once, so you reinvest less money than if you let it ride. I don't have a current tax table, but lets say you pay 20% in taxes, do you think you can make up that difference by buying on by buying and selling? - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: dbphoenix Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Capital gains Date: 02 Dec 1998 06:43:29 -0800 (PST) <> The total amount you pay, however, is going to be the same regardless. The number of times you pay doesn't really enter into it. --Db == "Lessons are repeated until they are learned." http://home.talkcity.com/MoneySt/dbphoenix/ _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com (Jeff Salisbury) Subject: [CANSLIM] Sending large files to the canslim group Date: 02 Dec 1998 08:00:02 -0700 Everyone, There are times when you may wish to share large files with our group (i.e. gif, jpeg, spreadsheets, etc). Our list is configured to reject large postings (even if they are properly encoded) since the sheer volume has caused problems in the past. As an alternative, we have provided an anonymous ftp site. To provide your file to the group, please follow these instructions: 1. Send your file to: ftp://ftp.xmission.com/pub/users/m/mcjathan/incoming/ If you need some help doing this step, there are ftp instructions below. 2. Send mail to me directly at "owner-canslim@xmission.com" telling me the name of the file that you uploaded. I will move the file from the incoming directory, to the canslim directory where people will be able to download your file. 3. After I notify you that the file has been moved to the canslim directory, you should send an email to the canslim group describing your file, and its URL (i.e. ftp://ftp.xmission.com/pub/users/m/mcjathan/GreatBoom.gif). Although this may seem unwieldy at first, it really isn't too bad and it solves more problems than it creates. You should note that I do not monitor my email on the weekends as closely as during the week. Therefore, steps 2-3 may take longer over a weekend. Best Regards, Jeff Salisbury =========================================================================== FTP Instructions: 1. Using Netscape, go to the URL: ftp://ftp.xmission.com/pub/users/m/mcjathan/incoming/ 2. On the Netscape "File" menu, select "Upload File..." This will open a file selection widget on your hard-drive. Select the file you wish to upload and hit the "Ok" button. At this point, your file will be uploaded. 3. Eventhough your file has been uploaded, you will not be able to see the file in your netscape browser. The reason for this is that the "incoming" directory is set to write-only for security reasons. - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: When to sell and how to buy back (was Re: [CANSLIM] Three big, deep cups?) Date: 01 Dec 1998 23:06:58 -0500 One of the many lessons that I had to learn the hard way as a retail broker was that ultimately I was not "smarter" than the market, no matter how I valued my intellect. I would typically continue to follow a stock even after I had sold every share for every client, in order to review my sell decision making and application of the many WON sell rules. And I found it hurt if it continued on up, so had to learn to remind myself of how I felt at the actual time of a sell decision. If I sold at a profit and price that greatly pleased me and my clients at the time, then I had to remember that I did so on the basis of what I knew then (which didn't include the crystal ball ability to anticipate it going even higher in the future). It took some doing, but I came to accept that if I made the RIGHT decision for the RIGHT reasons at the RIGHT time, then I shouldn't beat myself up for it if I could have done even better for myself or my clients by waiting. What actually took longer was learning how to view a stock as an entirely new situation if I had visited it before. It's very easy to let the results of past visit(s) color your perceptions. This makes it tough to buy back a stock you sold for a loss, as well as tough to buy back a stock you sold, albeit for a profit, but at a much lower price than where it currently trades. But this same "new stock" perception is essential, and especially if you are holding a loser, as you ask yourself the question "if I didn't already own it, would I be buying it right now??". Of course, in most cases with losers the question is usually "hell NO!!", which then leads you to the question of why you are keeping capital tied up in a loser. "Tax reasons", esp this late in the year, is one of the few acceptable answers. Offhand, I can't think of many other reasons. Tom W -----Original Message----- >>Excellent post. You have a gift of explaining things clearly and understandably.>> I agree, excellent Craig Yours too Db,, ;-) joe still kicking myself for not being a little more "nimble" CS or not... maybe I'm just being a "pig" ,, sure don't want to do that,, I know that can get me in trouble,, been there,, done that... - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: dbphoenix Subject: [CANSLIM] Just for Fun Date: 02 Dec 1998 09:44:12 -0800 (PST) From "The Clueless Investor": http://cbs.marketwatch.com/archive/19981202/news/current/clueless.htx?source=blq/yhoo&dist=yhoo --Db == "Lessons are repeated until they are learned." http://home.talkcity.com/MoneySt/dbphoenix/ _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Joe Scott" Subject: Re: When to sell and how to buy back (was Re: [CANSLIM] Three big, deep cups?) Date: 02 Dec 1998 12:44:18 -0500 I think there are some that may be missing my point when I have talked about "anticipating the market",, but with 3 out of 4 stocks following market direction I feel I must watch and anticipate the market.. If for no other reason than to time my entry into a new position, I certainly wouldn't have bought into a new position last week with the Dow and nazdaq making huge daily gains and coming up on resistance after such a huge 7 week run. Even if the stock I was watching was breaking out of a base with the best CS, you would be asking to be stopped out, and btw I do honor my stops and understand why I have them in place, doesn't mean that market, volume, and other conditions occasionally don't change my mind on whether or not to honor that stop. Same with this weeks action, I wouldn't try to enter a new position until this calms down, bases, whatever it is going to do.. Well, unless it was to daytrade. I don't claim to be a fortune teller, but I hear lots of noise about getting stopped out on positions with this little pull back, could some of that be buying the stock right, but not looking closely enough at market conditions, and what it might do to your brand new buy with that 7 or 8% stop loss in place?? Now if you already have a gain in a stock and your protecting those gains I can understand that, but remember what WON said about breathing room.. joe - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Joe Scott" Subject: [CANSLIM] Re, mistake Date: 02 Dec 1998 12:57:31 -0500 Tom, I shouldn't have piggybacked your message as a reply... Mine was directed to the group not your post,, sorry joe - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: dbphoenix Subject: [CANSLIM] Re: Joe's Post Date: 02 Dec 1998 10:29:32 -0800 (PST) It sounds to me as though you're not so much anticipating the market as you are watching what it does and interpreting it within the context of what you know from study, observation, and experience. There are differences between (1) the market is X and therefore Y, (2) IF the market is going to X, then I will Y, and (3) the market IS GOING TO X, so I will Y in anticipation of that event. (1) is observation and analysis, (2) is strategy, (3) is clairvoyance. For the most part, message boards are loaded with (3). As far as the stop situation goes, if an investor buys it wrong, his stop is going to be in the wrong place, it's going to be triggered, the stock will more than likely rebound shortly thereafter, he'll complain that stops and CS don't work, etc., etc. If one buys too far past the buypoint, he has only himself to blame if things don't work out the way he expected. And I have no idea where this 8% trailing stop business came from. --Db == "Lessons are repeated until they are learned." http://home.talkcity.com/MoneySt/dbphoenix/ _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: mckeener@ix.netcom.com Subject: [CANSLIM] When to sell and how to buy back Date: 02 Dec 1998 12:33:08 -0600 (CST) Tom, This is my nemesis. I need to remember over and over again that I protected myself against overwhelming losses, and not cater to the greediness that is inherent in my human nature. As for getting back into a stock that I still favor for good fundamentals and chart movement, you said it so well - change perception by looking at the stock, not from past experience, but from what the stock's health or lack of it is at the time I'm considering buying it. Investing is really difficult. Thanks for the reminder. Mary - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Dave Wood" Subject: [CANSLIM] institutional sponsors Date: 02 Dec 1998 13:49:43 -0500 Hi Tom, Thanks for the post. This is one aspect of canslim that has always driven me nuts. I read an interview of Leo Fasciocco in STOCKS & COMMODIES magazine (4/93) where he said to " look for at least 5 % but no more than 15 %." When I run a quotesplus2 scan using this criteria, only four stocks are found. Dave original message: Can't comment on how QP2 does the count, but can give you the data from DGO and review how they do the count. - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Tim Fisher Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Re: Joe's Post Date: 02 Dec 1998 11:55:31 -0800 Tom posted where it came from. I picked it up from this list about 18 months ago, and we had discussed it ad nauseum before deciding (at least some of us did) that it was wise to loosen it to a 10-15% trailing stop after you are up 15-20% to account for today's higher volatility. E.g., I typically place a 10-15% trailing stop based on the lower of the 40d EMA or VectorVest's stop price, updated Sunday based on Friday's close. Sometimes looser stops are good, sometimes they hurt you. I still can't decide when they will hurt you and when they will save your butt ahead of time, so I use them just in case. I'd like to see more discussion of ways to protect yourself that don't involve constant monitoring via computer and a hair trigger. Stops are one solution; I'm sure there are others. I'd also like to talk about when to decide whether a stock needs a stop at all, or if this is even reasonable. E.g. Dell for the past 3 years hasn't needed a stop - could I have decided that ahead of time and still be holding from almost 2 years ago? On 10:29 AM 12/2/98 , dbphoenix Said: > >And I have no idea where this 8% trailing stop business came from. > >--Db > > > >== > >"Lessons are repeated until they are learned." > >http://home.talkcity.com/MoneySt/dbphoenix/ > > > >_________________________________________________________ >DO YOU YAHOO!? >Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com > > >- > Tim Fisher Ore-Rock-On and Pacific Fishery Biologists WWW Sites Tim@OreRockOn.com WWW: http://OreRockOn.com See naked fish and rocks! - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Joe Scott" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Re: Joe's Post Date: 02 Dec 1998 14:57:31 -0500 >>>you are watching what it does and interpreting it within the context of what you know from study, observation, and experience.<<<< and acting or not acting upon what I perceive to be the outcome, of that "study, observation, and experience". a combination of 1, 2, and 3? or,, "hmm,, market looks to be going to X, so I will, or will not do Y" >>I have no idea where this 8% trailing stop business came from.<< I was talking about the stop placed when first entering a position,, Lets say you buy the perfect CS stock at the perfect buy point, I believe then a 7 to 8% stop is suggested by WON. If you buy at a temporary top in the market, you still may get stopped out, not because of the stock but because of market conditions (3 out of 4 will follow the market). Wouldn't you agree that it would be wise to pass on entering that position if by using your "study, observation, and experience" you made an educated observation that the markets temporary trend was about to reverse? Even though it may only be short lived and temporary? It could certainly be enough to stop you out easily. If your using hard stops, and the stock you bought was breaking out on volume which often is followed with a small pull back anyway, it would be especially easy to be stopped out. Or do we enter those positions with no regard to what we perceive to be the outcome of the markets next few days or maybe even the next week, by studying, observing, and using our experience to make an educated decision as to whether we are giving our stock a fair chance in a up trending market? joe - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Peter Newell" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Re: Joe's Post Date: 02 Dec 1998 15:10:34 -0800 In WON's 26 week articles, and in my school of hard knocks buying stocks that start a breakout at the top/end of a market cycle tend to get creamed on the way down the winners usually breakout before the market advance starts, (anyone know how to handle that). However, I also made 25% in a month(wish these would happen more often) trading these stocks in 1997 before the Oct meltdown, most went down hard, like CLST and CELL. >Lets say you buy the perfect CS stock at the perfect buy point, I believe >then a 7 to 8% stop is suggested by WON. >If you buy at a temporary top in the market, you still may get stopped out, >not because of the stock but because of market conditions (3 out of 4 will >follow the market). > >Wouldn't you agree that it would be wise to pass on entering that position >if by using your "study, observation, and experience" you made an educated >observation that the markets temporary trend was about to reverse? Even >though it may only be short lived and temporary? It could certainly be >enough to stop you out easily. - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: dbphoenix Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Re: Joe's Post Date: 02 Dec 1998 12:30:17 -0800 (PST) <> I understand. My trailing stop comment was in reference to posts complaining about stops in general. A 7-8% stop below the purchase price is just fine, assuming the stock was bought in the right place. Unfortunately, the people who complain about stops most often are generally the same people who buy too far past the buypoint. Therefore, it's not the fault of the stop or the strategy but of the investor. <> According to your post, however, that's not what you were doing. You were noting the change in direction, not a reversal. But I may have misunderstood. A change in direction is an observation. A reversal is an anticipation. <> This is a moot point for me because I use a top-down approach. If the market and group aren't healthy, I don't enter. But it has nothing to do with next week or even tomorrow. It has only to do with today and events leading up to today. So far the markets are behaving just fine and my portfolio is green except for one stock which is down 5/16. Maybe that will change by the end of the day or tomorrow. If it does, I'll do what needs to be done at the time. But I have no reason to do any preemptive selling. If I were to follow preemptive selling, there wouldn't be much point in having stops in the first place. --Db == "Lessons are repeated until they are learned." http://home.talkcity.com/MoneySt/dbphoenix/ _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: dbphoenix Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Re: Joe's Post Date: 02 Dec 1998 12:31:02 -0800 (PST) <> It involves buying off V bottoms, but O'N discourages that. --Db == "Lessons are repeated until they are learned." http://home.talkcity.com/MoneySt/dbphoenix/ _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Joe Scott" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Re: Tim's Post Date: 02 Dec 1998 15:48:05 -0500 >>that it was wise to loosen it to a 10-15% trailing stop after you are up 15-20% to account for today's higher volatility<< I don't think it's enough to keep you from getting shaken out particularly with some of the tech's you have mentioned (DELL, CSCO, AOL). Thats why it seems so important to me not only to buy your stock at the proper moment and entry price, but to also buy it when market conditions, and the near future's perceived market conditions justify the purchase. Then you hopefully can get some of what I call "breathing room". I won't mention the stock, but I bought it at 45 1/4, it has run up to 70 in the past few weeks, I would have been stopped out in the past few days at 54, it has closed the past two days around 59, and should close there or around that today.. My stop has been 45 15/16. If this stock continues to build a base at 59 and then moves up into the 70's again, then I will raise my stop. This is an EXTREME case for me, but I don't see any other way with these type of stocks. I also still feel strongly in this stock, that is why I asked you the other day if you still liked AOL. Don't get me wrong, I have done the same, I have traded AOL probably 10 times, made money most of them, but would have done much better had I traded it 2 or 3 times instead. .>>>d also like to talk about when to decide whether a stock needs a stop at all, or if this is even reasonable. <<<<< If I am not going to be "in front of the computer", a hard stop for me is mandatory. Depending in what gain or loss I have in the stock and the type of company it is will depend on where I put it.. I always have mental stops written down in front of me.. joe - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Joe Scott" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Re: Joe's Post Date: 02 Dec 1998 16:17:31 -0500 Reverse, change direction, observation, anticipation??? lol,,, you lost me Db... What I meant was, in looking at the market on any given day (say today), and using your study, observation, and experience to try and predict what the market may do in the next few days (future)... With that prediction, do you let that influence your possible purchase or sale of a stock? You might be referring to my saying that "I should have anticipated Monday's profit taking" and sold into those rallies of Thursday and Friday, or like Craig said Monday mornings gap up,, that would have really been good, :) ... I wasn't talking about wholesale selling on my part, just a few positions, that I knew would be prone to heavy profit taking. >>>It has only to do with today and events leading up to today<<<< Aren't we betting on the future? >>>If I were to follow preemptive selling, there wouldn't be much point in having stops in the first place.<<<< In this case this would be more akin to Sell Limits rather than sell stops,, not so much protecting against loss, but maximizing gains. Thank you for your views Db.. it's always a learning experience. Regards joe - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: dbphoenix Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Re: Joe's Post Date: 02 Dec 1998 14:10:07 -0800 (PST) <> Let's back up a little. If you'll reread my original reply, I referred to YOUR experience, not mine. Next, I don't use anything to try and predict what the market may do in the next few days, so there's no prediction to influence my possible purchase or sale of a stock. If the price gets to a certain point, I sell. If it doesn't, I don't. <<>>>It has only to do with today and events leading up to today<<<< Aren't we betting on the future?>> If you mean in the sense that we are betting that the stock market will over time go up, then yes. But that has no effect on my intermediate-term buy and sell decisions. It would influence my behavior only if I put everything into an index fund and had no hand in the management of my portfolio at all. But I'd be better off buying a bar. <<>>>If I were to follow preemptive selling, there wouldn't be much point in having stops in the first place.<<<< In this case this would be more akin to Sell Limits rather than sell stops,, not so much protecting against loss, but maximizing gains.>> If you're selling before your stops are reached on the basis of a prediction of what the market is going to do in the future, I don't see a difference. But maybe that's just me. --Db == "Lessons are repeated until they are learned." http://home.talkcity.com/MoneySt/dbphoenix/ _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Jeffry White <"postwhit@sover.net"@sover.net> Subject: [CANSLIM] ZenMaster Craig Date: 02 Dec 1998 17:45:33 -0500 > I am unsure whether it should be treated as the > first "sell signal" or not (my sense is no). A quick rally failure here > would convince me that we have a sell signal. For example, if you look at > 11/11/98, note that we rallied on to new highs a few days later without a > "rally failure in between", so all was ok. Today, we have a strong rally, > but not yet back to new highs, and on slightly lower volume (although > volume on the NYSE actually picked up). If we undercut 1949 on the NASDAQ > on a closing basis - that would be a definite sell signal (sell one or two > of your weakest stocks). I would also be inclined to treat a new > distribution day tomorrow (higher volume than today) as a sell signal (when > coupled with the last few days of action). This is nicely articulated, Craig. Thank you. The 11/11 example is a good one on the Nasdaq, and all was indeed "ok". Here's where I see the differences between then and now. First, of course, sentiment and puts/calls (although the spike lately in the P/C off 5 year lows is encouraging). Far different was the sentiment. Even though it was a bit lofty mid-month November, bears were still out in numbers and the P/C ratio was reasonable. We also saw nice action in the A/D supporting the move. Lately, it's been unimpressive and negative yesterday, even on the Nas with a huge reversal off multi-day lows. More importantly, and to your point, is the action after the 11/11 distribution day in the Nas. Notice how volume dropped off after 11/11. We'd had two distribution days. 11/10 was also distribution day, IMO. They came at a significant point in the chart (handle type formation after a good run). But, as you note we moved nicely out of that dip, beyond the handle and on to new highs. Contrast that low volume move in front of the resulting rally with the action we are seeing now in the NAS and NYSE. We've seen two distribution days, again at significant points in the charts (old highs this time). However, volume on the distribution days has been dramatic, and the price move on Monday was eye opening. Obviously I think we are at a much more significant point in the move, and here's what I see. I like the reversal day yesterday (Tuesday). Volume was increased on the NYSE, and eventhough the NAS was fractionally shy of Monday's volume, they are both nice examples of a potential sign of extraordinary strength and a confounding continuation of this move. A/D was troubling, however, particularly on the NAS. Reversal days of this type do set us up, as you say, for a "failed rally" attempt of sorts, although I think that's really mixing apples and oranges (rally attempts describe failed bottoming indicators). However, another distribution day near the recent highs would be to the same effect, and I assume that is what you mean. Particularly if the move to those numbers is not accompanied by some improvement in breadth. On your NAS 1949 number, I would suggest instead that you treat the reversal day lows from yesterday in both the NAS and NYSE (today in the DOW if you watch it) as the critical points. This is much like the low from which one counts for follow through action after a significant market downturn. Take it out on a closing basis and I'd be selling. Short parting comment. I agree with your "sense" that Monday was not a first "sell signal", but I'd certainly be paying close attention to the issues in my portfolio which are showing signs of being the first to stumble. Otherwise, I'd set my stops and hope for the best. JW - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Tim Fisher Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] ZenMaster Craig Date: 02 Dec 1998 15:10:49 -0800 My take on M: stops triggered remain in MM for the time being. AOL can go on up without me. I don't see much for good bases right now except for a few, i.e. MCRL, but since they haven't participated very much so far, I'd be a little skeptical if they all-of-a-sudden broke out. Comments? I'd be a little more worried except for VTSS and DELL which surprised me by bucking the trend today. I was expecting to get stopped out of VTSS today. On 02:45 PM 12/2/98 , Jeffry White Said: >> I am unsure whether it should be treated as the >> first "sell signal" or not (my sense is no). A quick rally failure here >> would convince me that we have a sell signal. For example, if you look at >> 11/11/98, note that we rallied on to new highs a few days later without a >> "rally failure in between", so all was ok. Today, we have a strong rally, >> but not yet back to new highs, and on slightly lower volume (although >> volume on the NYSE actually picked up). If we undercut 1949 on the NASDAQ >> on a closing basis - that would be a definite sell signal (sell one or two >> of your weakest stocks). I would also be inclined to treat a new >> distribution day tomorrow (higher volume than today) as a sell signal (when >> coupled with the last few days of action). > >This is nicely articulated, Craig. Thank you. The 11/11 example is a >good one on the Nasdaq, and all was indeed "ok". Here's where I see the >differences between then and now. > >First, of course, sentiment and puts/calls (although the spike lately in >the P/C off 5 year lows is encouraging). Far different was the >sentiment. Even though it was a bit lofty mid-month November, bears >were still out in numbers and the P/C ratio was reasonable. We also saw >nice action in the A/D supporting the move. Lately, it's been >unimpressive and negative yesterday, even on the Nas with a huge >reversal off multi-day lows. > >More importantly, and to your point, is the action after the 11/11 >distribution day in the Nas. Notice how volume dropped off after >11/11. We'd had two distribution days. 11/10 was also distribution >day, IMO. They came at a significant point in the chart (handle type >formation after a good run). But, as you note we moved nicely out of >that dip, beyond the handle and on to new highs. > >Contrast that low volume move in front of the resulting rally with the >action we are seeing now in the NAS and NYSE. We've seen two >distribution days, again at significant points in the charts (old highs >this time). However, volume on the distribution days has been dramatic, >and the price move on Monday was eye opening. > >Obviously I think we are at a much more significant point in the move, >and here's what I see. > >I like the reversal day yesterday (Tuesday). Volume was increased on >the NYSE, and eventhough the NAS was fractionally shy of Monday's >volume, they are both nice examples of a potential sign of extraordinary >strength and a confounding continuation of this move. A/D was troubling, >however, particularly on the NAS. > >Reversal days of this type do set us up, as you say, for a "failed >rally" attempt of sorts, although I think that's really mixing apples >and oranges (rally attempts describe failed bottoming indicators). >However, another distribution day near the recent highs would be to the >same effect, and I assume that is what you mean. Particularly if the >move to those numbers is not accompanied by some improvement in breadth. > >On your NAS 1949 number, I would suggest instead that you treat the >reversal day lows from yesterday in both the NAS and NYSE (today in the >DOW if you watch it) as the critical points. This is much like the low >from which one counts for follow through action after a significant >market downturn. Take it out on a closing basis and I'd be selling. > >Short parting comment. I agree with your "sense" that Monday was not a >first "sell signal", but I'd certainly be paying close attention to the >issues in my portfolio which are showing signs of being the first to >stumble. Otherwise, I'd set my stops and hope for the best. > >JW > >- > Tim Fisher Ore-Rock-On and Pacific Fishery Biologists WWW Sites Tim@OreRockOn.com WWW: http://OreRockOn.com See naked fish and rocks! - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Krukever Subject: [CANSLIM] near the stops... Date: 02 Dec 1998 20:18:48 -0300 I had a little loss on vtss and getting close to the aeos and cree stops. Hoping to recover i=B4ve bought some ann at 34.=20 But it doesn=B4t matter a lot because of the huge gain i=B4ve obtained last= week. SALUDOS, DIEGO KRUKEVER.- - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Craig Griffin Subject: Re: WON on protecting profits (was Re: [CANSLIM] Three big, Date: 02 Dec 1998 10:00:38 -0500 Tom, Thanks for the response. If you run across that article, I would love to have a copy. It is always good to hear from you. Best Regards, Craig - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "S Menon" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Re: Joe's Post Date: 02 Dec 1998 17:44:52 PST >From: "Peter Newell" > >In WON's 26 week articles, and in my school of hard knocks buying stocks >that start a breakout at the top/end of a market cycle tend to get creamed >on the way down the winners usually breakout before the market advance >starts, (anyone know how to handle that). However, I also made 25% in a >month(wish these would happen more often) trading these stocks in 1997 >before the Oct meltdown, most went down hard, like CLST and CELL. > If that is the case, can we assume that this is just the beginning by looking at MSFT, CMVT ... breakouts ? Or come to the conclusion that they are not market leaders ? I am usually wrong about markets, but I have a feeling that this may just be a shake up and stocks moving from weak hands to strong hands.... ______________________________________________________ Get Your Private, Free Email at http://www.hotmail.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Patrick Wahl" Subject: [CANSLIM] semiconductor stocks Date: 02 Dec 1998 21:19:23 -0800 I noticed that a few of the semiconductor stocks that I watch broke out today - Micrel, AMAT, MXIM, and Vitesse did a few days ago, showed some strength today. The group MCRL is in has a RS of 99. Only negative is that I didn't see a lot of volume. - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: dbphoenix Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] semiconductor stocks Date: 03 Dec 1998 06:32:51 -0800 (PST) What concerns me about MCRL is the slope of its growth rate. Its TTM PE is only 38, and its trailing six-month growth rate was 53%, but its projected six-month growth rate is only 23%. The estimates (the most recent two figures in the table) do seem low according to the RQ stream, but not that far off, unlike VTSS or JKHY. Plus there was no earnings surprise during the most recent quarter. Even without considering them, the rate of growth has been slowing. Does anyone have any reason to believe that the estimates are off by more than two cents in each of the two coming quarters? 0.33 0.27 0.30 0.31 0.31 22% 0.16 0.19 0.21 0.25 69% 58% 48% 24% 0.10 0.11 0.12 0.14 60% 73% 75% 79% --Db == "Lessons are repeated until they are learned." http://home.talkcity.com/MoneySt/dbphoenix/ _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com (Jeff Salisbury) Subject: [CANSLIM] Accessing the discussion canslim archives... Date: 03 Dec 1998 08:00:02 -0700 From time to time, CANSLIM members may wish to browse the discussion archives. This posting provides instructions on how to access the archives. Thanks to David Cameron for compiling the essentials of this message. Here are the two ways to access the archives: 1. The best way is to use your web browser. To browse the archives, point your browser to: http://www.xmission.com/~mcjathan/cgi/lwgate.cgi/CANSLIM/ You can do simple key-word searches on the archive by going to: http://www.xmission.com/~mcjathan/canslim/search.html 2. (Not as convenient) via email: Send an email to majordomo@xmission.com with the following as the body of your message: "index canslim". Then send a follow up email to request an old email from either the "archive" or "latest" directory. Note that your request must be in the body of your email. For example: "get canslim latest/001" will retrieve file "001" from the "latest" directory. "get canslim archive/v01.n066" will retrieve file "v01.n066" from the "archive" dir. Best Regards, Jeff Salisbury - CANSLIM list owner/admin - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Ari Lawson Subject: Re: WON on protecting profits (was Re: [CANSLIM] Three big, deep cups?) Date: 03 Dec 1998 10:04:40 -0500 From the BOOK HTMMIS, pg. 102-103 When to Be Patient and Hold a Stock 1. After a new purchase,draw a red defensive sell line on a daily or weekly graph at the precise price level where you will sell and cut your loss.in the first 1.5 to 2 years of a new bull market,you may want to give stocks this much room on the downside and hold until the price touches the sell line before taking defensive action. The defensive,loss-cutting sell line may in some instances be raised but kept below the low of the first normal correction after your initial purchase.If you raise your sell point,don't move it up too close to the current price,because any normal little weakness will shake you out of your stock.If your stock increases 15% or more after a correct purchase,move the defensive sell line up to less than 5% below the pivot purchase price. I do not think you should continue to follow a stock up by raising stop-loss orders because you will be forced out near the low of an ineviitable,natural correction.Once your stock is15% above your purchase price, you can begin to concentrate on the definite price where you will sell on the way up to nail down your short term profit. ARI Tom Worley wrote: > Hi Craig, > > I can't say I have been that surprised at how this week has progressed > so far, including a pretty impressive reversal today. This mkt has > been needing to take a breather for some time, esp on the internet > stocks. And I fully agree with the many comments that it's important > to look at how you are trying to trade/invest in the mkt. The > day/short term traders must, by definition, be far more reactive in > high volatility than the long term investors. > > As to WON advising on trailing stops to protect profits, I will try to > find the article published many years ago in the magazine "Registered > Representatives". At the time I sent copies to many clients. From > memory, he advocated the basic 8% stop loss based on your entry point, > and not changing this stop till you were either stopped out or up at > least 15%. If up 15%, he then advocated moving the stop to a point 8% > down from the current trading price as a "profit protection" > mechanism, with further adjustments higher if the stock continued up. > The article was published in this magazine (a trade journal for stock > brokers) somewhere around '91 or early '92, back in the good ole days > when a 50 pt move in the Dow really meant something. As far as I know, > this was an idea WON only shared with stock brokers, I have never seen > it in print elsewhere quite so clearly. > > Tom W > > -----Original Message----- > From: Craig Griffin > To: canslim@lists.xmission.com > Date: Tuesday, December 01, 1998 1:50 PM > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Three big, deep cups? > > Back to Canslim: > With the market at resistance (old highs), and having had a tremendous > run, > and with lots of turkeys flying (speculation), I do expect a rest > here. > How long it will last or how far we will pullback is anybody's guess. > My > take on it is that this is a well deserved breather until proven > otherwise > > As far as having a trailing stop on a stock that one is well ahead > on - in > order to protect profits - I have never seen or heard O'Neil recommend > such. If he has, I wish someone would point me to the "chapter and > verse". > > - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: dbphoenix Subject: [CANSLIM] SYKE Date: 03 Dec 1998 07:14:11 -0800 (PST) SYKE has been breaking out over the past two days. Its TTM PE is 31, its TSM growth rate has been 46% and its AGR (anticipated growth rate) for the next two quarters is 59%. My surrogates also show Computer Services to be one of the few accelerating groups. E R G SRP GV Box 99 83 83 B 2 2 0.26(e) 0.16 0.20 0.21 0.28(e) 63% 0.12 0.14 0.14 0.18 33% 43% 50% 56% 0.06 0.06 0.08 0.11 100% 133% 75% 64% Any comments? --Db == "Lessons are repeated until they are learned." http://home.talkcity.com/MoneySt/dbphoenix/ _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Ari Lawson Subject: [CANSLIM] Re:HTMMIS Q? Date: 03 Dec 1998 10:25:22 -0500 I have a few questions for anyone who has the book or familiar with it. pg.10 Looking for accelerating quarterly earnings growth. Won says virtually every corp.stock with an outstanding upward price move showed accelerated Q earnings increases some time in the previous ten quarters before the towering price advance began. My question is does anyone know where to get the info about any given stocks last 10 quarterly earnings in a timely manner? Also Pg. 11, Consult Log Scale Weekly Graphs.Won seems to be telling the importance of looking at a log scale for earnings but giving examples of chart prices.Does anyone understand exactly what Won is saying here? Thanks in advance ARI - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: dbphoenix Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Re:HTMMIS Q? Date: 03 Dec 1998 07:46:20 -0800 (PST) <> http://www.stocksite.com --Db == "Lessons are repeated until they are learned." http://home.talkcity.com/MoneySt/dbphoenix/ _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Brian Nash Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] SYKE Date: 03 Dec 1998 07:48:36 -0800 Taking a brief look at Money Flow, OBV, etc, I note no negative divergences. Looks like a solid breakout to me. > -----Original Message----- > From: dbphoenix [SMTP:dbphoenix@yahoo.com] > Sent: Thursday, December 03, 1998 10:14 AM > To: . . > Subject: [CANSLIM] SYKE > > > SYKE has been breaking out over the past two days. Its TTM PE is 31, > its TSM growth rate has been 46% and its AGR (anticipated growth rate) > for the next two quarters is 59%. My surrogates also show Computer > Services to be one of the few accelerating groups. > > E R G SRP GV Box > 99 83 83 B 2 2 0.26(e) > > 0.16 0.20 0.21 0.28(e) > 63% > 0.12 0.14 0.14 0.18 > 33% 43% 50% 56% > 0.06 0.06 0.08 0.11 > 100% 133% 75% 64% > > Any comments? > > --Db > > > > == > > "Lessons are repeated until they are learned." > > http://home.talkcity.com/MoneySt/dbphoenix/ > > > > _________________________________________________________ > DO YOU YAHOO!? > Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com > > > - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Joe Scott" Subject: Re: WON on protecting profits (was Re: [CANSLIM] Three big, deep cups?) Date: 03 Dec 1998 11:05:55 -0500 >> I do not think you should continue to follow a stock up by raising stop-loss orders because you will be forced out near the low of an inevitable,natural correction.Once your stock is15% above your purchase price, you can begin to concentrate on the definite price where you will sell on the way up to nail down your short term profit. <<<<< This is one thing that $%##'s me off about WON,,, he says this, but shows all these 200 and 300% moves,, how are you going to get those kind of gains if your looking at nailing down a short term profit...?? I read this exact page last night.. I see several contradictions in his selling ideas.. and this is titled "When to Be Patient and Hold a Stock" while nailing down short term profits??? joe - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: dbphoenix Subject: [CANSLIM] Re: WON on protecting profits Date: 03 Dec 1998 08:37:00 -0800 (PST) <> Part of it is that he never has been and still is not clear about what is appropriate for short-term, intermediate-term, and long-term investors. It's all sort of there, but you have to figure it out for yourself. For me, it's always been one of the great short-comings of his strategy. Rather than separate all his "advice" into Column A, Column B, and Column C, I find it easier to just decide what timeframe you're interested in, whether that be based on temperament, time available, interest, skill, tools available, goals, whatever. Then select those buy and sell rules which apply to the timeframe you've selected. As you note, the key words here are "short term profits". If you're not interested in short-term profits, you're not interested in nailing them down. If you're more interested in intermediate-term profits, that short-term-profit-taking opportunity may be, for you, an opportunity to pyramid. I'm sure everyone is royally sick of hearing this, but it all starts with timeframe. The trendlines, areas of support and resistance, stops, price targets, sell rules, technical indicators and so on that one chooses to use and focus on all depend on the timeframe one chooses to look at. I don't have the time to go through the entire series, but my general impression from this IBD anthology has been that one should focus on the intermediate to long-term, that the real money is made by holding through the corrections along the way, if at all possible, and putting more and more money into the best that one owns. But I may be prejudiced here because I have an IT timeframe. --Db == "Lessons are repeated until they are learned." http://home.talkcity.com/MoneySt/dbphoenix/ _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Scott Vickery Subject: [CANSLIM] Another HTMMIS Question Date: 03 Dec 1998 11:47:48 -0500 Ok, I finally got a copy of HTMMIS adn read it. The copyright on it was 1988 (I borrowed it from my Dad). Is there a newer version of the book? The reason I ask, is that I do not recall seeing discussions on distribution days, reversal days, failed rallies and how to spot them. In particular, I did not see anything on counting the days between different events. These Market Timing topics are discussed frequently on this mailing list, and I have been lost when it comes to these discussions. I was hoping I would be able to follow along (or better yet, add my 2 cents), but that didn't happen. Are these items in the book and I missed it, or, have these items been garnered from other sources? Scott Vickery - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Joe Scott" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] SYKE Date: 03 Dec 1998 11:49:08 -0500 Looking at the chart only, which I must admit is something I have a habit of doing. I see it is extended about 15% above that base at 20. If it pulled back, which it probably will you might be able to get in at a good price, you didn't mention if you were in or not. I take it your not. Once it can get above this cup, double bottom thing its been in since July, it has overhead resistance, and lots of it, way back to the beginning of 97, up to about 26 or so. Its not a chart I like the look of. I will be passing on some very good charts because of current market conditions, PLAT for one, although I don't think it meets CS at this time, I love the chart. Once this shakiness in the Dow and nazdaq resolves itself I will be looking again, but I expect that to take a few weeks of sideways action, I hope. Myself, I won't be buying anything now, not necessarily selling either. joe - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Joe Scott" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Re: WON on protecting profits Date: 03 Dec 1998 12:29:58 -0500 >>>an IT timeframe.<<< ? whats IT ? >>>>I'm sure everyone is royally sick of hearing this, but it all starts with timeframe. The trendlines, areas of support and resistance, stops, price targets, sell rules, technical indicators and so on that one chooses to use and focus on all depend on the timeframe one chooses to look at. <<<< This is so true, anyone who has ever watched realtime, one minute charts will understand this,, then support could be one hour away on the chart.. and short term profits could be minutes away. Wasn't for me, been there, done that... >>If you're more interested in intermediate-term profits, that short-term-profit-taking opportunity may be, for you, an opportunity to pyramid.<<<< or on the start up move again after a brief pull back from that "short-term-profit-taking opportunity " Are we going to settle into a base in the 8900/9000 range in the Dow? Nazdaq starting a base at 2000? Time will tell joe - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: dbphoenix Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Another HTMMIS Question Date: 03 Dec 1998 09:53:24 -0800 (PST) <> Scott, so much of the details has changed since he wrote the book that you're probably better off getting your basic info from his Secrets to Success series in IBD and reading the book afterward as a supplement. The URL for the web version of the series is http://ibd.infostreet.com/won/. --Db == "Lessons are repeated until they are learned." http://home.talkcity.com/MoneySt/dbphoenix/ _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: dbphoenix Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Re: WON on protecting profits Date: 03 Dec 1998 09:58:10 -0800 (PST) <> Sorry. Intermediate term. <> Thanks. That's what I meant. <> I guess you've noticed that as some stocks go down, others go up. So we may just be looking at rotation again. Wouldn't be the first time. I know not everyone shares my enthusiasm for tracking group movements, but that may become increasingly important as the Winter and Spring roll by. --Db == "Lessons are repeated until they are learned." http://home.talkcity.com/MoneySt/dbphoenix/ _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: David Reid Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Re: WON on protecting profits Date: 03 Dec 1998 13:00:51 -0800 > we may just be looking at rotation again.> > > -Looks like the oil sector has gotten a boost today. I have been buying a little in the oil patch the last couple weeks. Some of the charts are showing triple bottoms. Could be gettting a technical rally in the sector. - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: dbphoenix Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] SYKE Date: 03 Dec 1998 10:03:44 -0800 (PST) <> WON says that the buypoint is the high end of the handle, which in this cas is 21. We'll see if that pans out. <> Not real concerned about that, partly because it's so old and partly because that long base last Spring provided an opportunity to work some of that off. Again, we'll see. Even so, the target on this is 27, based on 150% of the 50d, so we're only talking about a few points. However, if it can base at that level and give its 50d time to catch up, the fundies suggest substantial upside. --Db == "Lessons are repeated until they are learned." http://home.talkcity.com/MoneySt/dbphoenix/ _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Joe Scott" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Re: WON on protecting profits Date: 03 Dec 1998 13:57:29 -0500 Db, What would you consider Intermediate term? and what would say was your average hold time? joe - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: dbphoenix Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Re: WON on protecting profits Date: 03 Dec 1998 11:39:37 -0800 (PST) <> Depends on the chart and where the MAs are and the trendlines. It runs from weeks to months, but it depends on the stock, the group, and the market. Moves don't seem to be taking as long now as they did even a year ago. Look at VTSS. If I can reach an intermediate-term price target in a day, I'll take it. But I no longer like being chained to the computer. If something pops up and pulls back while I'm not looking, I'll go ahead and hold it for a longer period of time and wait for it to hit the target again at a steadier pace. Unless something better comes along. (As you can see, this is not exactly mechanical.) For example, I'm not willing to hold on to JKHY and QTRN when there are other opportunities out there. But if there weren't, I'd probably just hold them and wait. I'm not going to be too happy if we get into another sector rotation. Means too much more work. The longest hold I've had in quite a while was UTI last year for six months. But that was an unusual circumstance. If I buy right and the breakout is genuine, it shouldn't take more than a few weeks to reach the target. Is all that definite enough for you? :) --Db == "Lessons are repeated until they are learned." http://home.talkcity.com/MoneySt/dbphoenix/ _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Joe Scott" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Re: WON on protecting profits Date: 03 Dec 1998 14:47:21 -0500 >>Is all that definite enough for you? :) << Yes, thanks Db,, I have just visited your web site, and realized that my questions about your strategy are probably posted there.. It looks to be a very extensive and well done site, and I am sure there is something to learn for everyone there,, if others haven't visited yet, do so, you won't be disappointed. http://home.talkcity.com/MoneySt/dbphoenix/ I plan to visit more often to see what I can glean from it to add to my own strategy.. joe - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Charles Cangialosi" Subject: [CANSLIM] M Date: 03 Dec 1998 16:02:38 -0500 This past days posts have some of the most interesting and informative I have read thus far. I have some cash after being stopped out of ATHM. I expected to be, I had my stop at 59 which was about 20%. I got in mid 40's and when it went up to 70 and started its pullback I decided I was not giving back all of my gain. If it could not hold from 15% down from around 70 I was out, and I am out. Today it was lower after coming back some. All week I have been looking for something to buy but every chart looks a little extended. I cant get conformable with a choice. I am going over HTMMIS and the HGS 101. Ian is really good and I can stay CANSLIM'ish. His stuff is a little easier to understand. Also with regard to the distribution day mentioned on 11/11, I see that. What about 11/24 and 11/30 those days are causing hesitation. I am reluctant to trust a stock going up when mostly the Volume has been low on the ones I looked at. I did get JKHY last week I am still even on that one. I expected to get stopped out. I have it at 46. Charlie - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Jeffry White <"postwhit@sover.net"@sover.net> Subject: [CANSLIM] ESP Date: 03 Dec 1998 16:18:42 -0500 Uh.....! ;) JW - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Craig Griffin Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] ESP Date: 03 Dec 1998 16:33:29 -0500 >On your NAS 1949 number, I would suggest instead that you treat the >reversal day lows from yesterday in both the NAS and NYSE (today in the >DOW if you watch it) as the critical points. This is much like the low >from which one counts for follow through action after a significant >market downturn. Take it out on a closing basis and I'd be selling. Jeffry, Thank you for your earlier cogent response. I agree, 1924 is the more logical point (to use as a sell signal). I especially find your comments on the sentiment indicators, Put/Call ratio, and Advance/Decline line of concern. Together with the recent distribution signals they raised the warning flag, as you pointed out. Now that we have today's (12/03) distribution day with a failed retest of 2000+ on the NASDAQ, I think we have our first sell signal. (I raised cash this afternoon selling my weakest holdings first). In addition to my earlier thinking, let me add one more item. The last 4 trading days have been extremely heavy volume without making any progress (we are below the close of the 11/24 distribution day) - this would seem to be serious churning (major distribution). Had today closed up, I would have been looking for an expansion of volume and a slow move up, or a slowing of volume as we moved sideways. With a strong down day instead, I am warily watching for additional sell signals. Best Regards, Craig - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Joe Scott" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] M Date: 03 Dec 1998 16:39:49 -0500 >>>I have some cash after being stopped out of ATHM. I expected to be, I had my stop at 59 <<<< Bought at 45 1/4, have stop set at 49 1/4 , it has some good support there,, and it has run up very fast without basing anywhere on the way up. I figure if it breaks the support at 49 it will continue down, and I don't want to take a loss in it. Have only been in it a month, stopped out at 49 1/4 is still about 8%. Hate to say "shouldda", but a sell limit placed at a ridiculous 75.00 back on Nov 29 would have been nice. Next time I see those same crazy blow off run up days I will be putting in sell limit orders at dream sell prices. joe - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Joe Scott" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] ESP Date: 03 Dec 1998 16:41:03 -0500 is that kinda like an "Ouch" ?? joe - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Joe Scott" Subject: [CANSLIM] Elder Date: 03 Dec 1998 16:55:16 -0500 Dragged out Elder's "Trading for a living", been awhile since I read it, about ready for another go .... joe - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Craig Griffin Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] ESP Date: 03 Dec 1998 16:33:29 -0500 >On your NAS 1949 number, I would suggest instead that you treat the >reversal day lows from yesterday in both the NAS and NYSE (today in the >DOW if you watch it) as the critical points. This is much like the low >from which one counts for follow through action after a significant >market downturn. Take it out on a closing basis and I'd be selling. Jeffry, Thank you for your earlier cogent response. I agree, 1924 is the more logical point (to use as a sell signal). I especially find your comments on the sentiment indicators, Put/Call ratio, and Advance/Decline line of concern. Together with the recent distribution signals they raised the warning flag, as you pointed out. Now that we have today's (12/03) distribution day with a failed retest of 2000+ on the NASDAQ, I think we have our first sell signal. (I raised cash this afternoon selling my weakest holdings first). In addition to my earlier thinking, let me add one more item. The last 4 trading days have been extremely heavy volume without making any progress (we are below the close of the 11/24 distribution day) - this would seem to be serious churning (major distribution). Had today closed up, I would have been looking for an expansion of volume and a slow move up, or a slowing of volume as we moved sideways. With a strong down day instead, I am warily watching for additional sell signals. Best Regards, Craig - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Eatstock@aol.com Subject: [CANSLIM] DB - Great Site - Industry Groups Date: 03 Dec 1998 18:46:20 EST Hey DB, Finally got your site....you must of had some extra time on your hands, but I guess it works as a great journal for you, and others...very dynamic.... Also went to stocksite - are the industries which they list all the companies in an industry or a representative sampling. They dont have a nifty download feature for any information like YAHOO quotes do they? That would be great to get the earnings numbers as a csv and do some calculating automatically. I really dont feel like sifting thorugh the HTML to get it. thanks Chris - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: WON on protecting profits (was Re: [CANSLIM] Three big, deep cups?) Date: 03 Dec 1998 18:54:14 -0500 Ari, obviously what he said ten years ago to the public isn't the same as what he said to the brokerage industry in a slightly lessor time frame. Will try to find the article this weekend and refresh my memory by posting an excerpt. Tom W -----Original Message----- deep cups?) >From the BOOK HTMMIS, pg. 102-103 When to Be Patient and Hold a Stock 1. After a new purchase,draw a red defensive sell line on a daily or weekly graph at the precise price level where you will sell and cut your loss.in the first 1.5 to 2 years of a new bull market,you may want to give stocks this much room on the downside and hold until the price touches the sell line before taking defensive action. The defensive,loss-cutting sell line may in some instances be raised but kept below the low of the first normal correction after your initial purchase.If you raise your sell point,don't move it up too close to the current price,because any normal little weakness will shake you out of your stock.If your stock increases 15% or more after a correct purchase,move the defensive sell line up to less than 5% below the pivot purchase price. I do not think you should continue to follow a stock up by raising stop-loss orders because you will be forced out near the low of an ineviitable,natural correction.Once your stock is15% above your purchase price, you can begin to concentrate on the definite price where you will sell on the way up to nail down your short term profit. ARI Tom Worley wrote: > Hi Craig, > > I can't say I have been that surprised at how this week has progressed > so far, including a pretty impressive reversal today. This mkt has > been needing to take a breather for some time, esp on the internet > stocks. And I fully agree with the many comments that it's important > to look at how you are trying to trade/invest in the mkt. The > day/short term traders must, by definition, be far more reactive in > high volatility than the long term investors. > > As to WON advising on trailing stops to protect profits, I will try to > find the article published many years ago in the magazine "Registered > Representatives". At the time I sent copies to many clients. From > memory, he advocated the basic 8% stop loss based on your entry point, > and not changing this stop till you were either stopped out or up at > least 15%. If up 15%, he then advocated moving the stop to a point 8% > down from the current trading price as a "profit protection" > mechanism, with further adjustments higher if the stock continued up. > The article was published in this magazine (a trade journal for stock > brokers) somewhere around '91 or early '92, back in the good ole days > when a 50 pt move in the Dow really meant something. As far as I know, > this was an idea WON only shared with stock brokers, I have never seen > it in print elsewhere quite so clearly. > > Tom W > > -----Original Message----- > From: Craig Griffin > To: canslim@lists.xmission.com > Date: Tuesday, December 01, 1998 1:50 PM > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Three big, deep cups? > > Back to Canslim: > With the market at resistance (old highs), and having had a tremendous > run, > and with lots of turkeys flying (speculation), I do expect a rest > here. > How long it will last or how far we will pullback is anybody's guess. > My > take on it is that this is a well deserved breather until proven > otherwise > > As far as having a trailing stop on a stock that one is well ahead > on - in > order to protect profits - I have never seen or heard O'Neil recommend > such. If he has, I wish someone would point me to the "chapter and > verse". > > - - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Re: WON on protecting profits Date: 03 Dec 1998 19:22:53 -0500 You also must keep in mind that when WON writes, or speaks at a forum, he generalizes his comments to his audience, which typically ranges from the very experienced to the very novice; to the ones that have only lost money to the ones that steadily make profits, tho not to the magnitude of their liking. One of his best comments, for me, was regarding how you could loosen up your stops and other selling rules once you had built up a substantial profit in the portfolio. His guidance was that, first, you must take short term profits to create that real profit. After that, you could start risking someone else's losses (your profits) by letting stocks run further. Tom W -----Original Message----- <> Part of it is that he never has been and still is not clear about what is appropriate for short-term, intermediate-term, and long-term investors. It's all sort of there, but you have to figure it out for yourself. For me, it's always been one of the great short-comings of his strategy. Rather than separate all his "advice" into Column A, Column B, and Column C, I find it easier to just decide what timeframe you're interested in, whether that be based on temperament, time available, interest, skill, tools available, goals, whatever. Then select those buy and sell rules which apply to the timeframe you've selected. As you note, the key words here are "short term profits". If you're not interested in short-term profits, you're not interested in nailing them down. If you're more interested in intermediate-term profits, that short-term-profit-taking opportunity may be, for you, an opportunity to pyramid. I'm sure everyone is royally sick of hearing this, but it all starts with timeframe. The trendlines, areas of support and resistance, stops, price targets, sell rules, technical indicators and so on that one chooses to use and focus on all depend on the timeframe one chooses to look at. I don't have the time to go through the entire series, but my general impression from this IBD anthology has been that one should focus on the intermediate to long-term, that the real money is made by holding through the corrections along the way, if at all possible, and putting more and more money into the best that one owns. But I may be prejudiced here because I have an IT timeframe. --Db == "Lessons are repeated until they are learned." http://home.talkcity.com/MoneySt/dbphoenix/ _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: mckeener@ix.netcom.com Subject: [CANSLIM] I GIVE UP Date: 02 Dec 1998 10:47:42 -0600 (CST) Tom, Thanks for the global picture. I got tangled up in the U.S. market. Mary - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: dbphoenix Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Industry Groups Date: 03 Dec 1998 18:23:38 -0800 (PST) <> I assume it's a sampling since they have only 27 groups. <> Not that I know of, but it's a simple matter to create a spreadsheet template with the formulas to generate the percentages for you. That's where the earnings blocks I posted earlier today came from. If you use a series of filters, you won't be looking up the earnings on that many stocks anyway since you'll only have a handful left to start with. --Db == "Lessons are repeated until they are learned." http://home.talkcity.com/MoneySt/dbphoenix/ _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Frank V. Wolynski" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Another HTMMIS Question Date: 03 Dec 1998 21:33:42 -0500 I did not see an answer to the "newer version" question, so.... Second Edition, Copyright 1995. There are half a dozen charts that cover market tops. He treats the subject fairly extensively. It has been a year since I read it and I will make it my goal over the Holidays to do so. Then maybe I'll have more to offer the group on the subject. Frank Wolynski At 09:53 AM 12/3/98 -0800, you wrote: > ><was 1988 (I borrowed it from my Dad). Is there a newer version of the >book? > >The reason I ask, is that I do not recall seeing discussions on >distribution days, reversal days, failed rallies and how to spot them. >In particular, I did not see anything on counting the days between >different events. > >These Market Timing topics are discussed frequently on this mailing >list, and I have been lost when it comes to these discussions. I was >hoping I would be able to follow along (or better yet, add my 2 cents), >but that didn't happen. Are these items in the book and I missed it, >or, have these items been garnered from other sources? > >Scott Vickery>> > >Scott, so much of the details has changed since he wrote the book that >you're probably better off getting your basic info from his Secrets to >Success series in IBD and reading the book afterward as a supplement. >The URL for the web version of the series is >http://ibd.infostreet.com/won/. > >--Db > >== > >"Lessons are repeated until they are learned." > >http://home.talkcity.com/MoneySt/dbphoenix/ > > > >_________________________________________________________ >DO YOU YAHOO!? >Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com > > >- > > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Tim Fisher Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] semiconductor stocks Date: 03 Dec 1998 07:53:53 -0800 Seems to have gotten away from anyone who wasn't in at the open. Anyway I have watched it for over 18 months now and have not been impressed so far. Today may change my mind, however. I was in it, then the growth rate slowed (they only matched their estimate as I recall) and I got out with a loss. If I had gotten in earlier I might have a better opinion ;{ At 06:32 AM 12/3/98 -0800, you wrote: > > >What concerns me about MCRL is the slope of its growth rate. Its TTM >PE is only 38, and its trailing six-month growth rate was 53%, but its >projected six-month growth rate is only 23%. The estimates (the most >recent two figures in the table) do seem low according to the RQ >stream, but not that far off, unlike VTSS or JKHY. Plus there was no >earnings surprise during the most recent quarter. Even without >considering them, the rate of growth has been slowing. Does anyone >have any reason to believe that the estimates are off by more than two >cents in each of the two coming quarters? > > >0.33 > >0.27 0.30 0.31 0.31 >22% >0.16 0.19 0.21 0.25 >69% 58% 48% 24% >0.10 0.11 0.12 0.14 >60% 73% 75% 79% > >--Db > > > > > > >== > >"Lessons are repeated until they are learned." > >http://home.talkcity.com/MoneySt/dbphoenix/ > Tim Fisher, 1995 President, Pacific Fishery Biologists Ore-ROCK-On Rockhounding Web Site PFB Information mailto:tim@OreRockOn.com WWW http://OreRockOn.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: dbphoenix Subject: [CANSLIM] So What Now? Date: 03 Dec 1998 19:28:24 -0800 (PST) Not a day to warm the cockles. The Dow, NYSE and S&P all closed below their 17d. The Naz closed above it. Which, considering the fact that the Naz is the most overextended of any of them, is the last thing I'd have expected, if I were of a mind to expect anything, which, as everyone knows by now, I'm not. Be that as it may, the heaviest volume seems to have been the early morning and late afternoon, and there doesn't seem to have been a huge difference between them (somebody with intraday charts showing volume can check me on this). The heaviest volume seems to have come in in the last half hour, but even so it doesn't seem to have been all that heavy. I interpret this to be not so much heavy selling pressure as a lack of buyers. In other words, it didn't take that much volume to push prices down (I know it was a heavy volume day all round, but the volume bar curve and the price curve on the Naz are in an almost direct inverse relationship, sort of an almond shape. This may mean that the bulls are waiting for better prices and will halt the slide at any moment. None of which really matters as far as my own rules go since the 17s were violated on all the indices mentioned above except for the Naz. So unless there's one heck of a rally real early, looks like I'll have to do some pruning tomorrow (I have four or five stocks that are at or just above their 17d MAs). BTW, the 17d on the Naz coincides with Tuesday's intraday low that Craig and Jeffry having been discussing. --Db == "Lessons are repeated until they are learned." http://home.talkcity.com/MoneySt/dbphoenix/ _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: rolatzi Subject: [CANSLIM] Marder on Markets Date: 01 Dec 1998 09:28:34 -0800 (PST) There's a new column as of Dec 1 in which he discusses the blow off in internet stocks. ciao, rolatzi _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Patrick Wahl" Subject: [CANSLIM] LEVL Date: 03 Dec 1998 20:36:40 -0800 Level One had a nice breakout today, part of the semiconductor group according to QP anyway. EPS and RS > 90, other rankings are A's and B's. Also, good volume. I'm just a bit worried about how these breakouts might follow through with the recent volatility. - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Patrick Wahl" Subject: [CANSLIM] agph Date: 03 Dec 1998 20:44:25 -0800 There is a short article on Agouron Pharmaceutical (AGPH) at the CBS Marketwatch page. Has a little bit on what the N part of AGPH is. - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: David Reid Subject: [CANSLIM] RFMD this is what I call a breakout. Date: 03 Dec 1998 22:52:50 -0800 > RFMD > - This company is in my hometown of Greensboro NC. I had it on my watch list for about 6 months and thought it was getting too extended. Shows you how much I know. Check out the chart. It is a beautiful sight for those that bought early on. Wish I had listened to my broker on that one. David - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Joe Scott" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] So What Now? Date: 03 Dec 1998 23:22:12 -0500 >>>if I were of a mind to expect anything, which, as everyone knows by now, I'm not.<<<< Don't be doing that Db, you'll be anticipating this market ;) Wish I had access to intraday volume,, but don't,, but watching it most of today I would say your right.. I also have 5 or 6 stocks flirting with sell stops, and I have an appointment tomorrow morning that I really must make.. I'm hoping to be able to postpone until mid day. I don't like putting in hard sell stops, but I may have no choice, don't like being taken out on a gap down in the morning to find out it was the low for the day, and the markets rallied. joe - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Joe Scott" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] LEVL Date: 03 Dec 1998 23:21:43 -0500 >>>I'm just a bit worried about how these breakouts might follow through with the recent volatility.<<< Better you than me, I've put together a list of shorts that if this market continues down look to me to be ready to correct... just in case.. Definitely not CS.. joe - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Joe Scott" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Marder on Markets Date: 03 Dec 1998 23:24:06 -0500 rolatzi Could you please post the link to that article if it is convenient? Thank you joe - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: dbphoenix Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Marder on Markets Date: 03 Dec 1998 20:37:54 -0800 (PST) <> This may be the same one I posted yesterday. http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/current/marder.htx?source=htx/http2_mw --Db == "Lessons are repeated until they are learned." http://home.talkcity.com/MoneySt/dbphoenix/ _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: dbphoenix Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] RFMD this is what I call a breakout. Date: 03 Dec 1998 20:37:22 -0800 (PST) <> Unless you had bought it near 26, you'd be right. It's now twice its 200d MA and 150% of its 50d MA, so it's unlikely to go much farther. --Db == "Lessons are repeated until they are learned." http://home.talkcity.com/MoneySt/dbphoenix/ _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Another HTMMIS Question Date: 04 Dec 1998 07:19:10 -0500 Frank, there is not a newer edition. In fact, the Second edition is little changed from the First edition, copyrighted 1988. And WON had definitely changed some from then, as he did not advocate big cap stocks back then as mainstream CANSLIM, as just one example. Tom W -----Original Message----- I did not see an answer to the "newer version" question, so.... Second Edition, Copyright 1995. There are half a dozen charts that cover market tops. He treats the subject fairly extensively. It has been a year since I read it and I will make it my goal over the Holidays to do so. Then maybe I'll have more to offer the group on the subject. Frank Wolynski - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] LEVL Date: 04 Dec 1998 07:24:07 -0500 It's in the Electrical - Connectors group (GRS 77) per DGO. RS 94, EPS 98. Tom W -----Original Message----- Level One had a nice breakout today, part of the semiconductor group according to QP anyway. EPS and RS > 90, other rankings are A's and B's. Also, good volume. I'm just a bit worried about how these breakouts might follow through with the recent volatility. - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] So What Now? Date: 04 Dec 1998 07:29:01 -0500 As of 7:30 AM, futures suggest a positive opening tho Asia's partial recovery from last night doesn't seem to have set off a rally in Europe. The unexpected rate cuts yesterday in Europe seem to have created more fears of economic problems than in reassuring investors of a future economic recovery in Asia and emerging markets. Tom W -----Original Message----- >>>if I were of a mind to expect anything, which, as everyone knows by now, I'm not.<<<< Don't be doing that Db, you'll be anticipating this market ;) Wish I had access to intraday volume,, but don't,, but watching it most of today I would say your right.. I also have 5 or 6 stocks flirting with sell stops, and I have an appointment tomorrow morning that I really must make.. I'm hoping to be able to postpone until mid day. I don't like putting in hard sell stops, but I may have no choice, don't like being taken out on a gap down in the morning to find out it was the low for the day, and the markets rallied. joe - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: rolatzi Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Marder on Markets Date: 04 Dec 1998 06:04:27 -0800 (PST) watch the line break. The URL is: http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/current/marder.htx?source=htx/http2_mw ---Joe Scott wrote: > > rolatzi > > Could you please post the link to that article if it is convenient? > Thank you > > joe > > > > - > > _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Peter Newell" Subject: [CANSLIM] Prepare for blastoff - Breakouts LEVL, MXIM, MEDI, MYG Date: 04 Dec 1998 09:15:44 -0800 Does anyone have IBD numbers/letters for these LEVL - I think someone mentioned this already looks good if you can get in on time Nice vol dry up MXIM - Pulled back yesterday on heavy vol but still up vol dry up here MEDI - Nice Vol dryup right at the pivot MYG - Blue chip CSer nice double bottom pulled back yesterday, this company is growing well much to my surprise Happy hunting, Peter Newell - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: dbphoenix Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Prepare for blastoff - Breakouts LEVL, MXIM, MEDI, MYG Date: 04 Dec 1998 06:49:33 -0800 (PST) <> MXIM E R G SRP GV Box 95 90 99 A 7 3 0.33 0.32 0.34 0.26 0.29 0.31 0.33 27% 10% 10% 0.22 0.23 0.24 0.25 18% 26% 29% 32% --Db == "Lessons are repeated until they are learned." http://home.talkcity.com/MoneySt/dbphoenix/ _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: dbphoenix Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Prepare for blastoff - Breakouts LEVL, MXIM, MEDI, MYG Date: 04 Dec 1998 07:05:11 -0800 (PST) About MXIM. That Group Velocity number should be 3, not 7. It should soon be 0, perhaps by the end of the day (i.e., the end of this week). --Db == "Lessons are repeated until they are learned." http://home.talkcity.com/MoneySt/dbphoenix/ _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: TM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Prepare for blastoff - Breakouts LEVL, MXIM, MEDI, MYG Date: 04 Dec 1998 08:16:04 -0800 (PST) Sure, DB- LEVL AAB MXIM AAB MEDI ADB MYG ADB In this order:Igroup SPM A/d TM ---dbphoenix wrote: > > <> > > MXIM > E R G SRP GV Box > 95 90 99 A 7 3 0.33 0.32 0.34 > > 0.26 0.29 0.31 0.33 > 27% 10% 10% > 0.22 0.23 0.24 0.25 > 18% 26% 29% 32% > > > --Db > > == > > "Lessons are repeated until they are learned." > > http://home.talkcity.com/MoneySt/dbphoenix/ > > > > _________________________________________________________ > DO YOU YAHOO!? > Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com > > > - > > _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Dave Wood" Subject: [CANSLIM] myg Date: 04 Dec 1998 11:30:13 -0500 Today, IBD said " Maytag cleared a 33 week base Wednesday " in the "nyse stocks in the news " section. I seem to be confused. WON has said many times that a buy occurs when a stock clears the top of its base. Didn't MYG base between about 42 and 52 in a double bottom. In this case the buy occurred on 11/18/98 when it closed at 52 15/16. Any comments. - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: dbphoenix Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Prepare for blastoff - Breakouts LEVL, MXIM, MEDI, MYG Date: 04 Dec 1998 08:41:41 -0800 (PST) <> Just to keep things straight for whoever's interested in these, my MXIM post was in response to Peter's request. I did not ask for the info that TM is providing. Tack what she's done onto Peter's original post. --Db == "Lessons are repeated until they are learned." http://home.talkcity.com/MoneySt/dbphoenix/ _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: dbphoenix Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] myg Date: 04 Dec 1998 08:53:47 -0800 (PST) <> The "base" they're referring to began last April, though it's not a base by any definition they've supplied in HTMMIS, unless they're thinking of a cup (who knows?). The top of that base was 55 and was cleared a couple of days ago. --Db == "Lessons are repeated until they are learned." http://home.talkcity.com/MoneySt/dbphoenix/ _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Craig Griffin Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] myg Date: 04 Dec 1998 11:54:30 -0500 Dave, You wrote: > Today, IBD said " Maytag cleared a 33 week base Wednesday " in the "nyse >stocks in the news " section. I seem to be confused. WON has said many times >that a buy occurs when a stock clears the top of its base. Didn't MYG base >between about 42 and 52 in a double bottom. In this case the buy occurred on >11/18/98 when it closed at 52 15/16. Any comments. You are exactly right and IBD is exactly right. There are often these primary and secondary buy points. Both are valid buying opportunities: and if you buy the first one, you can then pyramid at the second one. I call the absolute new high the "primary pivot" and the point you have identified the "secondary pivot" and the related breakout to be a "low-level breakout" (ie. below old highs). Let me elucidate the IBD base and pivot point for MYG. The actual base begins at the old high on 04/14/98 at 55 3/4. The base then runs 33 weeks as IBD says. Near the end of the base on 11/23/98, the formation of a handle begins at about the old high (55 1/2). The handle then droops down until 12/1/98. On 12/2/98 (Tuesday), the stock makes a run at the top of the handle. Some early birds will buy "half way up the handle" on a day like this in a strong market. Your risk is higher, because often they meet resistance at the old high and pull back, sometimes significantly and quickly. In this case, it worked out and the breakout occurred on 12/3/98 (Wednesday), easily clearing 55 1/2 (the high point of the handle). I consider both buy points to be valid (and in many cases, I buy the low-level breakout and pyramid at the breakout to new highs - other times I only buy one or the other). Only some charts have both pivots, frequently there is just one. Occassionally when the stock meets resistance at the old high, it bases there for quite a while. In this case it simply built a nice little drooping down handle to use as a launch pad - ideal. RE: DELL By the way, on another subject - the DELL base is starting to form up. What looked so ugly and hard to read is now starting to look ugly, but maybe readable. When looked at on a weekly chart, looks like a cup/handle (long handle). Base starting 09/28/98 and with the pivot at 68-69 (not sure which to choose). 69 definitely clears the hurdle (you have to ignore three days of the fakeout 11/10-11/12. Volume characteristics look ok and it may be ready to go. Best Regards, Craig - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Craig Griffin Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] ESP Date: 04 Dec 1998 12:08:59 -0500 I wrote: >>On your NAS 1949 number, I would suggest instead that you treat the >Now that we have today's (12/03) distribution day with a failed retest of >2000+ on the NASDAQ, I think we have our first sell signal. (I raised cash >this afternoon selling my weakest holdings first). Turns out, this may be a misread of the market. Time will tell. With today's action. Maybe we are just in a volatile resting period for the averages with sector rotation going on. The semis are certainly strong now. Other stocks in other groups are still breaking out (ala. MYG and CPQ) as well. Nearly all of my positions continue to hold up very well (of the two I sold yesterday, happy about one, sad to have let the other go). On the other hand, over the last couple of years, at the last two or three selling points in the market there have continued to be breakouts and strong stocks, even as the averages were rolling over. Then later, the leaders pulled back to form new bases as well and the breakouts dribbled down to nothing. We shall see ... those semis certainly look like they are making the turn ... - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Jeffry White Subject: [CANSLIM] HTMMIS Question Date: 04 Dec 1998 12:17:500 -0500 >>The reason I ask, is that I do not recall seeing discussions on distribution days, reversal days, failed rallies and how to spot them. In particular, I did not see anything on counting the days between different events. These Market Timing topics are discussed frequently on this mailing list, and I have been lost when it comes to these discussions. I was hoping I would be able to follow along (or better yet, add my 2 cents), but that didn't happen. Are these items in the book and I missed it, or, have these items been garnered from other sources? Scott Vickery>> Db wrote: "Scott, so much of the details has changed since he wrote the book that you're probably better off getting your basic info from his Secrets to Success series in IBD and reading the book afterward as a supplement." Db, With respect to Market Direction, which details have changed since WON wrote the book? Jeffry P.S., Scott Vickery....Chapter 7 in whatever edition you have. Try pages 50 some odd to 60 some odd. - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Craig Griffin Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] myg Date: 04 Dec 1998 12:23:36 -0500 Three other details about low-level breakouts. 1. They generally work best when a clear line of resistance is seen as with MYG's multiple tests of around 52 1/2. 2. They should still overcome essentially all resistance on the chart (in other words there should not be much price action at higher levels). In the case of MYG, for example, there was only about 2 weeks of trading back in April that took place above 53. For a 33 week base, that is a negligable amount. 3. Finally, there should be a relatively short distance between the old highs (primary pivot point) and the low-level (secondary) pivot point. Generally between 8 and 15%. More than 15% is a push. In that case you will often get a whole new base below the primary pivot, but above the secondary pivot. In the case of MYG, the distance between the two pivots was 7%. This is all primarily my own thinking on the subject. I don't think O'Neil makes much if any reference to it. He generally references the the old high or the top of the handle (whichever comes first) as the pivot. - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Jeffry White Subject: [CANSLIM] ESP Date: 04 Dec 1998 12:23:500 -0500 >>Date: Thu, 3 Dec 1998 16:41:03 -0500 is that kinda like an "Ouch" ?? joe<< No, it's kinda like clairvoyance....ya know, the kinda stuff you see on bulletin boards and from geeks like Martin Zwieg...ya know.... ;) Jeffry - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: dbphoenix Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] HTMMIS Question Date: 04 Dec 1998 09:33:24 -0800 (PST) Perhaps none. I was suggesting that he read O'N's IBD series for his most current thinking on CS and use the book as a supplement to that. There have been a number of changes, such as base lengths, that may sound like user-variations to anyone who hasn't read the series. --Db <<>>The reason I ask, is that I do not recall seeing discussions on distribution days, reversal days, failed rallies and how to spot them. In particular, I did not see anything on counting the days between different events. These Market Timing topics are discussed frequently on this mailing list, and I have been lost when it comes to these discussions. I was hoping I would be able to follow along (or better yet, add my 2 cents), but that didn't happen. Are these items in the book and I missed it, or, have these items been garnered from other sources? Scott Vickery>> Db wrote: "Scott, so much of the details has changed since he wrote the book that you're probably better off getting your basic info from his Secrets to Success series in IBD and reading the book afterward as a supplement." Db, With respect to Market Direction, which details have changed since WON wrote the book? Jeffry P.S., Scott Vickery....Chapter 7 in whatever edition you have. Try pages 50 some odd to 60 some odd.>> == "Lessons are repeated until they are learned." http://home.talkcity.com/MoneySt/dbphoenix/ _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: dbphoenix Subject: [CANSLIM] IBI Date: 04 Dec 1998 09:44:07 -0800 (PST) IBI is a stock I've mentioned here and on the website recently. Those of you who picked up on it may find the following interesting: Thursday December 3 3:56 PM ET Psst -- Victoria's secret is a new Web site By Craig Bicknell SAN FRANCISCO (Wired) - It's hard to believe they didn't think of this sooner. Victoria's Secret, the lingerie retailer famous for its steamy catalogs, is preparing to launch an online site sure to draw the attention of investors-and bachelors. Details are still as scant as the panties, but Intimate Brands Inc (NYSE:IBI - news), the company that runs Victoria's Secret, said the site was designed with a male audience in mind. Among the features: chats with supermodels like Stephanie Seymour and Tyra Banks. The company hoped to unveil the site over the Thanksgiving weekend, but delayed the launch for fear that it couldn't handle the expected traffic surge. Traffic surge, maybe. But it remains to be seen whether chats with Ms. Seymour will translate into sales. == "Lessons are repeated until they are learned." http://home.talkcity.com/MoneySt/dbphoenix/ _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: mckeener@ix.netcom.com Subject: [CANSLIM] IBD - Dec. 4th Date: 04 Dec 1998 14:16:14 -0600 (CST) There are two articles worth reading in above issue of IBD - "WWW Internet Takes Cool Look At Red-Hot Sector" and "Fight The Fear: Buy Stocks Breaking Out To New Highs", both in the Funds and Personal Finance section. I don't have a scanner, otherwise I'd post the articles. Thanks to the group member who'll scan these for those who don't get IBD. Mary - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: dbphoenix Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] IBD - Dec. 4th Date: 04 Dec 1998 13:03:53 -0800 (PST) <> Perhaps one of the AOL members could look it up at the AOL/IBD site and copy-and-paste it from there. --Db == "Lessons are repeated until they are learned." http://home.talkcity.com/MoneySt/dbphoenix/ _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: mikelu Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] IBD - Dec. 4th Date: 04 Dec 1998 13:16:04 -0800 PA You get a call from your broker. He has a stock investment idea. The name: Sun Microsystems, the big computer workstation maker. ''What's the price?'' you ask. It's 54, a new high. You wince. ''Ah! It's too high already. I'm late on this one. I'll pass.'' Are you sure? Most new investors have a natural inclination to shy away from buying a stock making a new high. They feel instead they should buy a stock well off its high. They want a bargain. If the stock was 54 and is now 25, that's great. Their idea is that when business gets better, the stock will rise and they'll make a tidy bundle. There's also an unfounded sense that the stock can't go down much more. It's true some stocks will come back after falling sharply. However, many times ''damaged goods'' usually sit on the shelf and hardly anyone, particularly portfolio managers with real buying power, will buy them. The stocks get tagged with the name laggards. When the market rallies, those stocks generally don't rise much. Stocks making new highs - such as Sun Microsystems - are at the other end of the spectrum. The natural thought of the new investor is they are ''too expensive.'' But in the stock market, words like ''expensive'' and ''cheap'' are often misused and misunderstood. Actually, a stock making a new high may be cheap, not expensive. Why? The stock market is a discounting mechanism. It's looking way ahead - three, six or even nine months out -to what a company's business will be like. The market has already taken into consideration in the stock's present price all the news about the company. So even though Sun was making a new high when your broker called, it wasn't expensive. The stock climbed to 82 1/2 six weeks later and continues to act well. The lesson: It's better to buy a stock making a new high than one that is not. There are several places in IBD to find stocks making new highs. You can start with the 52-Week Highs & Lows list, today on Page A17. Charts of NYSE Stocks In The News (on Page A10) and Nasdaq Stocks In The News (on Page B12) show stocks that are at or near new highs. Also, the stock tables indicate stocks making new highs by placing an ''NH'' in the 52-week high column. You should especially avoid stocks near 52-week lows. That's why IBD replaced the new lows in its stock tables list with more important data. But there's a big caveat to buying stocks making new highs. You want to time your buying just when the stock is emerging from a consolidation, or a sideways trading pattern of at least seven weeks. The reason? If you buy a stock making a new high that has run straight up for several weeks, it may be ripe for a pullback. Normal profit-taking can knock a good stock down 10%, 20% or even 30%. Another reason new highs are good plays is that they don't have what is called ''overhead supply.'' That phenomenon sets up when a stock declines to a lower price. Investors who bought at higher prices will be itching to sell as the stock recovers. That selling pressure slows the stock's advance. Take the case of Compaq Computer. It peaked at 40 back in September '97. It then fell to 26 during the following three months. Every rally since then has been turned back in the high 30s. It is a clear case of upside resistance. Compaq is currently at 36 3/8. Rival Dell Computer was trading near 25 back in September '97. It broke out of its base and into new high ground in early February. It soared to a peak of 73 1/2 by mid-November of this year. Here are some key pointers to remember when buying stocks making new highs: * Buy when a stock is emerging from a base. * Never buy after a stock moves straight up. * Relative Strength should be above 80. * Earnings Per Share rating should be above 80. * Earnings growth should be over 20%. * Industry group rating should be strong. //////////////////////////////////////////////////////////// Copyright (c) 1998 Investors Business Daily, All rights reserved. Investor's Business Daily - Making Money in Mutuals (12/04/98) Fight The Fear: Buy Stocks Breaking Out To New Highs Leo Fasciocco By It's mid-October and the stock market is just recovering from a sharp decline. 12/3/98 6:01 PM -----Original Message----- Sent: Friday, December 04, 1998 1:04 PM <> Perhaps one of the AOL members could look it up at the AOL/IBD site and copy-and-paste it from there. --Db == "Lessons are repeated until they are learned." http://home.talkcity.com/MoneySt/dbphoenix/ _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Tim Fisher Subject: [CANSLIM] LU Date: 04 Dec 1998 14:10:31 -0800 Interesting, based very tightly at 85-90 w/ great volume dryup since Nov 7 them WHAM up 7 today on over 1.5x ADV. Looks like the MSFT b/o to 129. Another rare big cap b/o? Considering the performance of the RUT today I smell another rotation back to safe big caps with all this volatility. So when's Dell gonna do it's thing? Tim Fisher Ore-Rock-On and Pacific Fishery Biologists WWW Sites Tim@OreRockOn.com WWW: http://OreRockOn.com See naked fish and rocks! - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Charles Cangialosi" Subject: [CANSLIM] Software Date: 04 Dec 1998 18:52:41 -0500 I purchased Window on Wall St. Internet Version. It does a lot but I personally am not crazy about it. However YMMV. I am interested in QP2 w/IRL for surrogates. I also saw TC2000 in IBD. It is 29.95 a month but the software comes with it. Ian recommends QP2 so that is where I am leaning. I hate taking a loss on the WOW. Can I use this in conjunction with IRL. I'm really confused on this one. Someone mentioned a sub-group for QP2 users. Is there one? Can I get on it if there is. Any help would be appreciated. Thanks Charlie - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: dbphoenix Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Software Date: 04 Dec 1998 16:39:55 -0800 (PST) <> You don't say what you want to do with any of these programs. WOWS will do surrogates if that's all you're interested in. However, I'd send back the Internet version and pick up the older Deluxe. It's only $130 or $140. All the info is on my website. Also you can now download data from Prophet for $20/mo. --Db == "Lessons are repeated until they are learned." http://home.talkcity.com/MoneySt/dbphoenix/ _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Joe Scott" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] IBI Date: 04 Dec 1998 18:44:23 -0500 I saw today on a talk show a 5 million dollar diamond and ruby studded bra,, guess who was selling it. I understand they sold one for 1 million last year.. joe - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: mikelu Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] IBD - Dec. 4th Date: 04 Dec 1998 13:16:52 -0800 WWW Internet Takes Cool Look At Red-Hot Sector PA For the holders of Internet stocks, this is not a fantasy but a remarkable victory. Recently, in a matter of days or sometimes just hours, Internet stocks have been skyrocketing to heights that it takes large companies with strong, sustainable earnings decades to reach. The initial public offering of online auction company EBay, for example, opened for trading at 34 and soared to 216 within six weeks, and Theglobe.com, offered as an IPO at 9, opened to the public at 43, zoomed to 97 and closed at 67, all on the same day. On Thursday, USA Networks launched the public offering of its Ticketmaster Online-CitySearch unit, which jumped more than 30 points. The investors who buy these stocks do not seem to care that the balance sheets of many Internet companies are drenched in red ink, or that few of them have yet to earn a dime. Some may believe the Internet has the potential to become an industry unlike anything the world has seen before, and perhaps the most powerful driver of corporate profits ever known. Others care only about riding the Web wave as long as the momentum is with them. All of this raises interesting questions about the risks and rewards investors face when they buy into mutual funds that specialize in Internet stocks. Specifically, what are fund managers doing to minimize risk and maximize reward in the midst of this frenzied buying and selling of Internet stocks? For answers, IBD recently interviewed Lawrence York, 47, manager of WWW Internet Fund, a 2-year-old Internet fund with just $4 million in assets, but one that has taken a rational, long-term approach to the Internet craze. It was the first Internet fund in the U.S. The Lexington, Ky.-based fund was up 29% in November and is up 37% for the year through Wednesday. It has returned 55% since its inception in '96. That works out to an average annual return of 24%. Two other Internet funds are Munder NetNet in East Rutherford, N.J., which is up 70% this year, and Bethesda, Md.-based Monument. IBD: Where in the world is the volume coming from to drive Internet stocks so high? Who's buying them? York: There is a growing online trading population that is buying these stocks - the dentists in Indiana, so to speak. Some of these people are just in it for a quick trading profit. The transaction reports I see show that the majority of the trades are small, just 100 or 500 shares at a time, so individuals are probably doing most of the buying. IBD: Have you made a lot of money on the highfliers, such as EBay and Theglobe.com? York: I don't own EBay or Theglobe. EBay is essentially an online magazine for companies that are liquidating second-hand merchandise and inventory overruns. There is no barrier to entry in that business. Compaq could do it, so could Microsoft. So I see EBay as a flash in the pan. IBD: But it's been one heck of a blinding flash. Shouldn't you be capitalizing on these incredible price run-ups? York: That's a valid criticism. But we are not day traders or momentum players. We want to mitigate risk; we don't want to buy stocks that will eventually give back all their flashy gains. We look for Internet companies with long-term, sustainable earnings that we can hold for the long haul. We want to be the blue chip fund for Internet stocks, so we look for companies that will emerge as the winners over the long term. IBD: How do you find these companies? York: Internet stocks are a phenomenon. They are very much like venture-capital deals that happen to be public. Some of them are so weak financially that they should not even be public companies. So you have to develop different methods of assessing their valuation and growth potential. IBD: What are these methods? York: You look for the amount of venture capital a company has behind it, the expertise of management, and most important, the company should not have a lot of competition. You don't want a ''me- too'' company. Everybody, for example, can sell advertising on the Web. We look for products that stand alone. IBD: Which sector of Internet commerce do you think will be particularly strong? York: Retailing is an ever-growing sector, so is the business-to-business sector. The business-to-business sector will probably have the highest dollar volume, and it could be very explosive. IBD: Some retailers claim to be getting an enormous number of ''hits'' at their Web sites. Does this mean the shopping malls will be deserted in five years, and shoppers will use the Net instead? York: You have to be careful with predictions like that. A retailer can get a lot of hits, but you have to know how much it cost them to attract people to their sites. And there is no correlation right now between the number of hits and the amount of money people actually spend. There is a lot of browsing. IBD: Which companies are best positioned to take advantage of growth in interbusiness commerce? York: IBM, Microsoft and Lucent Technologies are the best. They have realized that the commerce surrounding bill presentment and bill payment is going to be enormous. We hold all three of these companies. IBD: So you own both pure Internet companies and Internet-related companies? York: Yes. We look for a combination of growth and value. We separate Internet companies into three groups: mature, midlife and adolescent. The mature companies are the large blue chip companies that are giants without the Internet, but they happen to be adapting themselves very well to becoming Internet companies. They are Microsoft, Cisco Systems, Compaq, Dell Computer, Lucent and Texas Instruments. The midlife companies are more narrowly focused on Internet products. But they are not start-ups or in development stages. They have high growth rates. They include PeopleSoft, Cendant and C- Cube Systems. IBD: And the adolescent companies are the newer highfliers that have been getting all the attention? York: Yes, but they are the most stable of an unstable lot. They include Yahoo, Netscape, Amazon.com and Lycos. We trimmed our positions in all of these stocks when they ran up, and we sold out of Yahoo altogether. I'll buy more when the price dips. IBD: Which of these groups has the heaviest weighting in your portfolio? York: It's currently weighted toward the midlife and adolescent companies. But this will change because the adolescent companies have had such a tremendous run-up. We will swing back to the group that offers the best value when it becomes clear which group will keep going up. IBD: Are there lesser-known companies that you believe will end up as big players over time? York: Yes, they include companies such as chipmaker Broadcom, Spyglass, Inso, Egghead.com, E-trade, CMG Information, U.S. Web and USA Networks. IBD: USA Networks, headed by Barry Diller, is an Internet stock? York: Yes. They have radio and TV holdings, but they acquired Ticketmaster, a company that I believe will do well on the Internet. We own Ticketmaster Online, as well. //////////////////////////////////////////////////////////// Copyright (c) 1998 Investors Business Daily, All rights reserved. Investor's Business Daily - Making Money in Mutuals (12/04/98) WWW Internet Takes Cool Look At Red-Hot Sector Peter McKenna By Imagine that you buy 1,000 shares of a stock at 35 and a few days later it's worth more than 200. Right before your wide-open and disbelieving eyes, $35,000 has turned into $200,000. 12/3/98 6:01 PM -----Original Message----- Sent: Friday, December 04, 1998 1:04 PM <> Perhaps one of the AOL members could look it up at the AOL/IBD site and copy-and-paste it from there. --Db == "Lessons are repeated until they are learned." http://home.talkcity.com/MoneySt/dbphoenix/ _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Tim Fisher Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] IBD - Dec. 4th Date: 04 Dec 1998 18:11:21 -0800 Considering the guy doesn't even know what eBay does, it's no wonder there's only $4 mil in his fund! Sheesh! At 01:16 PM 12/4/98 -0800, you wrote: > IBD: Have you made a lot of money on the highfliers, such as EBay and >Theglobe.com? > > York: I don't own EBay or Theglobe. EBay is essentially an online >magazine for companies that are liquidating second-hand merchandise and >inventory overruns. There is no barrier to entry in that business. Compaq >could do it, so could Microsoft. So I see EBay as a flash in the pan. > Tim Fisher, 1995 President, Pacific Fishery Biologists Ore-ROCK-On Rockhounding Web Site PFB Information mailto:tim@OreRockOn.com WWW http://OreRockOn.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Krukever Subject: [CANSLIM] Brasil down. Date: 05 Dec 1998 00:02:53 -0300 So here i=B4m suffering Brasil=B4s fallen and Argentina following the trend, luckily i=B4ve the us stocks that perform better. SALUDOS, DIEGO KRUKEVER.- - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: TM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Software Date: 04 Dec 1998 21:35:10 -0800 (PST) http://www4.techstocks.com/~wsapi/investor/Subject-9637 ; this one is new- Janene from QP2 replies to questions. QP2 will not make composites. It does contain Ian's IRL groups. It also has SIC headings which are excellent as well. I use and like QP2. I have heard that IRL and QP make a seamless package and are getting better all the time. I also use WOW Internet Deluxe for group work offline mainly. It is relatively new to me and I'm still getting it set up efficiently. I checked it all out before I bought it to make sure that I could tranfer data from QP2 into WOW offline. On the QP2 side it is seamless. On the WOW side, it keeps getting easier as I learn better what to do; it may well be seamless there too. The WOW E-mail address goes to the developers; they have magic powers. I have the basic level of service with WOW until my year's subscription to QP2 is up or the situtation changes. I have a lot to learn about the program and groups right now. Do your composites update intraday on WOW? TM ---Charles Cangialosi wrote: > > I purchased Window on Wall St. Internet Version. It does a lot but I > personally am not crazy about it. However YMMV. > I am interested in QP2 w/IRL for surrogates. I also saw TC2000 in IBD. It is > 29.95 a month but the software comes with it. > Ian recommends QP2 so that is where I am leaning. I hate taking a loss on > the WOW. Can I use this in conjunction with IRL. I'm really confused on this > one. > Someone mentioned a sub-group for QP2 users. Is there one? Can I get on it > if there is. > Any help would be appreciated. > Thanks > Charlie > > > - > > _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Brasil down. Date: 05 Dec 1998 08:06:17 -0500 Diego, Brazil's Congressional failure to pass the latest round of economic reforms, increasing employee contributions towards their retirement, spells a major problem for them eventually receiving the funds from IMF they desperately need if they are to avoid default and/or currency devaluation. And with the "line in the sand" drawn on Brazil, as goes this one country, so goes the region, barring a sudden and unlikely major increase in the price of oil. Brazil's bonds, many of which had been trading at par or better, are now below par and falling as the possibility of default becomes greater. Should this happen, we could easily see a reoccurence of the past months when the fear quotient became so high. Tom W -----Original Message----- Cc: canslim@lists.xmission.com So here i=B4m suffering Brasil=B4s fallen and Argentina following the trend, luckily i=B4ve the us stocks that perform better. SALUDOS, DIEGO KRUKEVER.- - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Jeff Salisbury" Subject: [CANSLIM] The canslim archives... Date: 05 Dec 1998 08:46:29 -0700 Fellow Canslim'ers, I've received a report that the canslim archives are not accessable. They seem to be working for me, but I'm local to Xmission. I would appreciate some help from you. If you have a spare minute or two, would you try to access the archives at: ftp://ftp.xmission.com/pub/lists/canslim/archive/ Then please contact me and let me know if you were able to read the archives. Rather than cluttering up the group's discussion with this debugging, please contact me directly at: mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com Best Regards, Jeff - canslim admin/owner - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Jeffry White <"postwhit@sover.net"@sover.net> Subject: [CANSLIM] ESP Date: 05 Dec 1998 11:31:14 -0500 > Date: Fri, 04 Dec 1998 12:08:59 -0500 > From: Craig Griffin > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] ESP > > I wrote: > >>On your NAS 1949 number, I would suggest instead that you treat the > >Now that we have today's (12/03) distribution day with a failed retest of > >2000+ on the NASDAQ, I think we have our first sell signal. (I raised cash > >this afternoon selling my weakest holdings first). > > Turns out, this may be a misread of the market. Time will tell. With > today's action. Maybe we are just in a volatile resting period for the > averages with sector rotation going on. The semis are certainly strong > now. Other stocks in other groups are still breaking out (ala. MYG and > CPQ) as well. Your read was correct (with the exception of the 2000+ which I don't see as significant), we had a sizeable distribution day. You began a scale back, nothing incorrect about that even if the market does not begin an intermediate term move to the down side. Discipline pays huge dividends. A/D looked good yesterday and semi leadership performed well. Trouble is...volume was not impressive, and although the lows held, I don't view Friday's action as comforting in any way. Gap down open creating new lows and reversal on volume improvement would have been the only thing that would have comforted me. Gap up open on Monday will signal increased danger, and a distribution day off that move will likely signal a new set of lows in this correction. JeffrynotaclarvoyantWhite - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "sam morrison" Subject: [CANSLIM] Archives Date: 05 Dec 1998 17:43:36 -0500 Archives work great for me. - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "sam morrison" Subject: [CANSLIM] software Date: 05 Dec 1998 17:54:23 -0500 I have purchased and am using Window on Wall Street Internet Trader Pro 7. I will be the first to admit that it is complicated and I have yet to learn everything. But I have achieved successful trades. I purchased the program mainly because it had the highest recommendation of all programs given by the American Association of Individual Investors.http://www.aaii.com/ of which I am a member. CanSlim is a challenge but I am in the process of learning. Thanks to Db's burrow and all the informative posts here on the CanSlim message board I am learning more. I had tried Vector Vest previosly through a trial offer and found that the software didn't perform with my new Dell computer. Sam - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "The Jacksons" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Elder Date: 05 Dec 1998 18:13:01 -0500 I've been thinking of using the triple screen on canslim stocks. -----Original Message----- >Dragged out Elder's "Trading for a living", been awhile since I read it, >about ready for another go .... > >joe > > > >- > > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Charles Cangialosi" Subject: [CANSLIM] MA Date: 05 Dec 1998 18:49:21 -0500 I have been looking at a lot of charts. All that comes across this list. I have made a startling discovery. (Remember I am new to this). In almost every chart when the 17DMA and the 50DMA crossed that was about the time to be in. It happened a lot at the beginning of Nov. OK, that is a big duhh for most everyone but it is the first thing that has really jumped out at me. Charlie - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Scott Vickery Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] HTMMIS Question Date: 05 Dec 1998 19:06:25 -0500 Thanks for the replies. I just went and printed out the IBM series. i am also re-reading ch. 7 in the book. Scott At 09:33 AM 12/4/98 -0800, you wrote: > >Perhaps none. I was suggesting that he read O'N's IBD series for his >most current thinking on CS and use the book as a supplement to that. >There have been a number of changes, such as base lengths, that may >sound like user-variations to anyone who hasn't read the series. > >--Db > > ><<>>The reason I ask, is that I do not recall seeing discussions on >distribution days, reversal days, failed rallies and how to spot them. >In particular, I did not see anything on counting the days between >different events. > >These Market Timing topics are discussed frequently on this mailing >list, and I have been lost when it comes to these discussions. I was >hoping I would be able to follow along (or better yet, add my 2 cents), >but that didn't happen. Are these items in the book and I missed it, >or, have these items been garnered from other sources? > >Scott Vickery>> > >Db wrote: > >"Scott, so much of the details has changed since he wrote the book that >you're probably better off getting your basic info from his Secrets to >Success series in IBD and reading the book afterward as a supplement." > >Db, > >With respect to Market Direction, which details have changed since WON >wrote >the book? > >Jeffry > >P.S., Scott Vickery....Chapter 7 in whatever edition you have. Try >pages >50 >some odd to 60 some odd.>> > > > > >== > >"Lessons are repeated until they are learned." > >http://home.talkcity.com/MoneySt/dbphoenix/ > > > >_________________________________________________________ >DO YOU YAHOO!? >Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com > > >- > > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Krukever Subject: [CANSLIM] Cc: upupandaway@shango.com Date: 05 Dec 1998 21:57:29 -0300 The last week market=B4s downside failed to reach my sell stops.=20 Now it=B4s my turn, i=B4ve bought cmvt, mxim, and on the IPO side tmcs and= ubid, let=B4s see what they have for me. Keep Your Hands And Feet Inside The Stochastic=20 Until Your Oscillator Comes To A Complete Stop =BFdoes this sounds to you Db? SALUDOS, DIEGO KRUKEVER.- - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Patrick Wahl" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] MA Date: 05 Dec 1998 20:18:32 -0800 > I have been looking at a lot of charts. All that comes across this list. I > have made a startling discovery. (Remember I am new to this). In almost > every chart when the 17DMA and the 50DMA crossed that was about the time to > be in. It happened a lot at the beginning of Nov. OK, that is a big duhh for > most everyone but it is the first thing that has really jumped out at me. All of the stocks mentioned here are those that are in an uptrend, so you are getting a skewed picture of the predictive ability of the crossover. I think most things would work in a favorable market and uptrending stocks. - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] DGO New Highs Date: 06 Dec 1998 10:23:49 -0500 Here's the list, usual qualifiers apply. The total on the list was 288, of which the following 134 met the 80/80 test. RACN, CBXC, ISCG, NBTB, SUNW, INSS, CSGS, ALSI, PLCE, NCOG, MWHS, BHW, NTAP, SERO, MRX, CCRD, ITGI, WMT, NSOL, MSFT, ARGX, CSCO, CGO, ELBO, WABC, ABDR, HGR, VRTS, IBM, BBBY, NSIT, DECO, CPWR, SCH, RAD, UFPI, TLTN, ORCL, SDG, BMET, LSTR, RI, ORLY, ELK, WCOM, RESM, CTSH, BOOL, ISTN, AVEI, PROX, EMC, MNMD, BBC, FOSL, BEBE, SGP, CACS, OXE, EDMC, JEC, SNPS, ZQK, IMPH, FDS, TAGS, MXIM, TSIC, VTSS, IBI, LLTC, MCRL, CUBE, MVSN, SANM, MTD, ALTR, RMBS, UNPH, VF, RGAA, HLYW, GAC, MYG, WAG, DTEK, GPS, HDI, PLT, CHTT, NTRS, ABH, EXAC, LEVL, RAIL, FLEX, USM, ECILF, BDY, PRGX, DNEX, SLR, CEFT, AHL, ACS, EAGL, DHR, GILTF, CPN, FPIC, DY, GENZ, RGA, BJICA, MHP, CMVT, PLXS, PMS, CPS, PBI, ESI, RGIS, VMC, WLP, VCI, NEG, AFL, TRK, BK SAH, NOKA, MMS, ABT, GDT. Do your own research. Not responsible for typos. Happy hunting. Tom W - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Frank V. Wolynski" Subject: [CANSLIM] IBD Industry Groups - 1 Week Performance Date: 06 Dec 1998 12:58:24 -0500 1 Week Group Performance Tabulations: Best 1 Week Performance: 1Wk Percentage This Week Last Week Rank Group Gain IBD Ranking IBD Ranking 0000,8080,0000# 1 Elec-Semiconductor Mfg 7.0 2 2 # 2 Comml Svcs-Linen Supply 5.3 73 65 # 3 Elec-Semiconductor Equip 4.4 9 28 # 4 Medical-Generic Drugs 4.2 19 29 # 5 Computer-Graphics 3.1 100 157 # 6 Retail-Super/Mini Mkts 2.9 49 36 # 7 Media-Books 2.9 26 34 # 8 Retail-Home Furnishing 2.9 109 139 # 9 Computer-Memory Devices 2.9 3 3 #10 Food-Meat Products 2.8 4 4 Worst 1 Week Performance: 1Wk Percentage This Week Last Week Rank Group Gain IBD Ranking IBD Ranking ffff,0000,0000#188 Oil&Gas-Machinery/Equip - 5.3 196 194 #189 Oil&Gas-US Integrated - 5.9 171 116 #190 Finance-Investment Bkrs - 6.1 57 56 #191 Metal Ores-Non Ferrous - 6.1 150 103 #192 Comml Svcs-Advertising - 6.6 35 19 #193 Oil&Gas-US Explo&Prod - 7.9 191 181 #194 Retail-Consumer Elect - 8.3 20 30 #195 Metal Ores-Gold/Silver - 8.3 102 79 #196 Retail/Whlsle-Cmptr/Cell -13.7 5 7 #197 Computer Softwr-Internet -58.1 1 1 FWIW, Frank Wolynski - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Frank V. Wolynski" Subject: [CANSLIM] IBD Industry Groups - 4 Week Performance Date: 06 Dec 1998 12:58:35 -0500 4 Week Group Performance Tabulations: Best 4 Week Performance: 1Wk Percentage This Week Last Week Rank Group Gain IBD Ranking IBD Ranking 0000,8080,0000# 1 Computer Softwr-Internet 55.2 1 1 # 2 Retail-Consumer Elect 24.5 20 30 # 3 Elec-Semiconductor Mfg 18.6 2 2 # 4 Elec-Semiconductor Equip 15.8 9 28 # 5 Computer Softwr-Desktop 15.6 7 8 # 6 Computer-Local Networks 15.0 6 6 # 7 Media-Cable Tv 13.6 13 12 # 8 Computer-Memory Devices 13.3 3 3 # 9 Computer-Mainframes 12.5 15 10 #10 Retail/Whlsle-Office Supl 11.5 40 52 Worst 4 Week Performance: 1Wk Percentage This Week Last Week Rank Group Gain IBD Ranking IBD Ranking ffff,0000,0000#188 Mining-Gems - 8.1 166 176 #189 Oil & Gas-US Royalty Tr - 9.4 176 166 #190 Steel-Producers -10.0 189 190 #191 Metal Ores-Non Ferrous -11.4 150 103 #192 Oil&Gas-Cdn Exp&Prod -12.3 179 160 #193 Metal Ores-Gold/Silver -14.0 102 79 #194 Oil&Gas-Field Services -16.6 193 191 #195 Oil&Gas-US Explo&Prod -17.1 191 181 #196 Oil & Gas-Drilling -19.9 197 196 #197 Oil&Gas-Machinery/Equip -20.0 196 194 FWIW, Frank Wolynski - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Frank V. Wolynski" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] DGO New Highs Date: 06 Dec 1998 13:21:23 -0500 Does anyone know the Industry group the following stocks are in? ABH, ELBO, RGAA TIA, Frank Wolynski At 10:23 12/6/98 -0500, you wrote: >Here's the list, usual qualifiers apply. > >The total on the list was 288, of which the following 134 met the >80/80 test. > >RACN, CBXC, ISCG, NBTB, SUNW, INSS, CSGS, ALSI, PLCE, NCOG, MWHS, BHW, >NTAP, SERO, MRX, CCRD, ITGI, WMT, NSOL, MSFT, ARGX, CSCO, CGO, ELBO, >WABC, ABDR, HGR, VRTS, IBM, BBBY, NSIT, DECO, CPWR, SCH, RAD, UFPI, >TLTN, ORCL, SDG, BMET, LSTR, RI, ORLY, ELK, WCOM, RESM, CTSH, BOOL, >ISTN, AVEI, PROX, EMC, MNMD, BBC, FOSL, BEBE, SGP, CACS, OXE, EDMC, >JEC, SNPS, ZQK, IMPH, FDS, TAGS, MXIM, TSIC, VTSS, IBI, LLTC, MCRL, >CUBE, MVSN, SANM, MTD, ALTR, RMBS, UNPH, VF, RGAA, HLYW, GAC, MYG, >WAG, DTEK, GPS, HDI, PLT, CHTT, NTRS, ABH, EXAC, LEVL, RAIL, FLEX, >USM, ECILF, BDY, PRGX, DNEX, SLR, CEFT, AHL, ACS, EAGL, DHR, GILTF, >CPN, FPIC, DY, GENZ, RGA, BJICA, MHP, CMVT, PLXS, PMS, CPS, PBI, ESI, >RGIS, VMC, WLP, VCI, NEG, AFL, TRK, BK SAH, NOKA, MMS, ABT, GDT. > >Do your own research. > >Not responsible for typos. > >Happy hunting. > >Tom W > > > >- > > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Knurley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] DGO New Highs Date: 06 Dec 1998 10:56:35 PST On Sun, 06 Dec 1998 13:21:23 -0500, Frank V. Wolynski wrote: > Does anyone know the Industry group the following stocks are in? > ABH, ELBO, RGAA > > TIA, > Frank Wolynski Acording to Yahoo Sym, Industry, Sector ABH, Security Systems & Services, Services ELBO, Retail (Technology), Services TIA, Insurance-Life, Financial RGA A is probably the same as RGA (same company name) RGA, Insurance (Accident & Health),Financial John _______________________________________________________ Get your free, private e-mail at http://mail.excite.com/ - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Charles Cangialosi" Subject: [CANSLIM] MA Date: 06 Dec 1998 14:09:39 -0500 Ya, that figures, thanks for the help. I had not considered that the market can do more than it is presently doing. Charlie > I have been looking at a lot of charts. All that comes across this list. I > have made a startling discovery. (Remember I am new to this). In almost > every chart when the 17DMA and the 50DMA crossed that was about the time to > be in. It happened a lot at the beginning of Nov. OK, that is a big duhh for > most everyone but it is the first thing that has really jumped out at me. All of the stocks mentioned here are those that are in an uptrend, so you are getting a skewed picture of the predictive ability of the crossover. I think most things would work in a favorable market and uptrending stocks. - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "S Menon" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] 10 Year T-Bill Date: 06 Dec 1998 12:45:58 PST Does anyone know of a site where I can plot the 10 year T-Bill or the interest rate ? If BigChart has it could someone tell me the symbol please ? Thanks SMenon ______________________________________________________ Get Your Private, Free Email at http://www.hotmail.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Charles Cangialosi" Subject: [CANSLIM] Upcoming groups/NASDAQ Date: 06 Dec 1998 16:05:39 -0500 Does anyone these are some of the better groups to look in. Elec-Semi Equip and Comp-Secure, Comp-Secure looks like the group is moving up (Rogers HGS). Elec-Semi seems to have arrived. According to my interpretation of Ian the NASDAQ is due for a correction. He says that if the NAZ is >24% from its recent low and >10% from its 200 DMA it is due to correct. The recent low was about 1340 in early oct. At this point so we are 33.1% above that. Also the 200DMA is about 1800 10.13% pretty close. Charlie - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Patrick Wahl" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] 10 Year T-Bill Date: 06 Dec 1998 14:37:03 -0800 > Does anyone know of a site where I can plot the 10 year T-Bill or > the interest rate ? If BigChart has it could someone tell me the > symbol please ? 10 year bonds are actually T Notes, not bills, but anyway, I would guess you can find a chart of the futures on the 10 yr. notes at the Chicago Board of Trade site, since that is where they are traded. www.cbot.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "S Menon" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] 10 Year T-Bill. Date: 06 Dec 1998 15:02:38 PST Thanks Patrik. >From: "Patrick Wahl" >To: canslim@lists.xmission.com >Date: Sun, 6 Dec 1998 14:37:03 -0800 >Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] 10 Year T-Bill >Reply-To: canslim@lists.xmission.com > >From: "S Menon" >To: canslim@lists.xmission.com > >> Does anyone know of a site where I can plot the 10 year T-Bill or >> the interest rate ? If BigChart has it could someone tell me the >> symbol please ? > >10 year bonds are actually T Notes, not bills, but anyway, I would >guess you can find a chart of the futures on the 10 yr. notes at the >Chicago Board of Trade site, since that is where they are traded. >www.cbot.com > > > >- > ______________________________________________________ Get Your Private, Free Email at http://www.hotmail.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Tim Fisher Subject: [CANSLIM] Killer CASLI November Scan Date: 06 Dec 1998 15:36:20 -0800 Scan results posted to: ftp://ftp.xmission.com/pub/users/m/mcjathan/canslim/CANSLIM_11-98.htm Tim Fisher, 1995 President, Pacific Fishery Biologists Ore-ROCK-On Rockhounding Web Site PFB Information mailto:tim@OreRockOn.com WWW http://OreRockOn.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Krukever Subject: [CANSLIM] =?iso-8859-1?Q?O=B4Neil?= . Date: 06 Dec 1998 21:36:09 -0300 I have dedicated this weekend to study O=B4Neil, the interviews and the lessons, let=B4s see how this can impact in my invetsing philosophy and in= my profits (or looses). SALUDOS, DIEGO KRUKEVER.- - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "twells5" Subject: [CANSLIM] Archives Date: 06 Dec 1998 19:54:46 -0500 I used the archives a short time ago and they seemed to work fine. Tim - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Patrick Wahl" Subject: [CANSLIM] The market Date: 06 Dec 1998 20:19:16 -0800 Inspired by Charles C's recent comments about the level of the NASDAQ versus its 200 day moving average, I put up charts of the last 2 1/'2 years of the nasdaq with a plot indicating how extended the nasdaq is currently versus the previous several years. It is pretty extended. General observation - Russell has held up pretty well with little volatility the last few weeks. Nasdaq looks like it need a rest, it is at a logical place to do so. Breakout above 2028 might mean we are off to the races again. Charles - you can eyeball the charts I put up and see how your 17 day - 50 day moving average crossover would work out. Charts are at - http://home.att.net/~pwahl - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Patrick Wahl" Subject: [CANSLIM] Article at CBS Date: 06 Dec 1998 21:55:23 -0800 Interesting article by Cedd Moses at the CBS Marketwatch site. Go to the front page and there will be a link to the article. Basically, he is bullish. - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Jeffry White Subject: [CANSLIM] A/D Opinion Date: 07 Dec 1998 08:26:500 -0500 For those who find A/D useful in determining Market Direction, one man's opinion: http://decisionpoint.com/ChartSpotliteFiles/ChartSpot20.html Jeffry - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Ronald J. Russell, Jr." Subject: [CANSLIM] Weekly Stock List - 12/04/1998 Date: 06 Dec 1998 23:22:02 -0500 All, I tightened up the selection criteria this week. Here's what I am now using: EPS > 69 RS > 84 GRS > 59 (New Criteria) A/D = "A" or "B" CLOSE > 10.00 (Was > 7.00) 30 Day ADV > 75,000 The result was to bring the list down to 245. Trade Well, Ron Symbol EPS RS GRS ERG A/D Close 30 ADV AAS 91 85 92 268 B $ 64.190 178,747 ABDR 98 88 86 272 A $ 57.130 132,767 ACCOB 78 90 77 245 B $ 50.500 105,220 ACRT 97 87 71 255 B $ 16.440 89,203 ACS 93 90 83 266 B $ 40.130 127,647 AEH 95 97 81 273 A $ 42.880 667,460 AFL 80 92 73 245 A $ 39.880 524,557 AGN 86 94 90 270 B $ 63.810 299,817 AGPH 75 95 92 262 A $ 45.500 595,773 AHAA 76 97 96 269 A $ 25.000 132,013 AIT 77 90 81 248 B $ 57.560 1,082,560 ALTR 82 95 99 276 A $ 55.690 2,448,886 AMSY 83 85 83 251 B $ 32.440 261,123 ANF 99 90 79 268 B $ 53.500 772,030 ANN 76 97 79 252 B $ 34.310 616,780 AOL 76 99 99 274 B $ 88.000 17,762,886 APCC 90 92 80 262 B $ 40.630 748,740 APEX 99 88 91 278 B $ 27.500 219,140 ARDT 76 96 94 266 B $ 17.380 245,750 ARX 84 94 76 254 A $ 13.810 156,633 ASDV 76 85 94 255 B $ 32.880 368,880 ASND 91 95 97 283 B $ 57.060 5,368,777 AT 78 88 81 247 B $ 54.000 906,737 AVEI 99 92 85 276 A $ 50.810 2,188,110 AVTC 89 88 94 271 B $ 22.880 85,993 AXNT 72 92 85 249 A $ 26.380 395,467 AZA 72 92 89 253 B $ 51.000 747,250 BBBY 96 94 79 269 B $ 29.750 1,445,003 BBC 87 96 92 275 B $ 31.000 589,323 BBK 88 89 72 249 B $ 39.060 416,327 BBRC 84 89 99 272 B $ 24.380 262,693 BDK 91 85 60 236 B $ 55.880 312,920 BDY 91 94 92 277 A $ 40.060 101,503 BEL 71 88 83 242 A $ 56.810 1,879,167 BEST 96 95 94 285 B $ 24.750 141,877 BGEN 73 97 92 262 B $ 80.440 1,228,550 BHW 84 91 83 258 B $ 34.500 131,537 BK 83 90 72 245 A $ 36.380 1,379,607 BMET 84 87 85 256 B $ 36.750 662,750 BMY 75 85 84 244 B $ 126.190 1,561,243 BOBJY 95 95 94 284 A $ 18.810 403,913 BRL 90 87 90 267 A $ 44.750 164,350 BSYS 85 90 83 258 B $ 48.630 94,733 BVSN 76 97 99 272 B $ 25.060 1,048,657 CAH 91 89 92 272 B $ 71.440 841,702 CAKE 85 85 66 236 B $ 23.750 176,597 CATH 73 91 79 243 B $ 10.880 102,060 CBSI 97 87 83 267 B $ 27.310 389,177 CBXC 97 98 80 275 A $ 38.750 122,780 CCL 90 89 62 241 B $ 36.690 1,150,190 CCRD 80 97 94 271 B $ 43.000 204,043 CDWC 97 97 97 291 A $ 88.130 235,820 CEN 79 90 83 252 B $ 65.810 412,823 CHCS 79 98 79 256 B $ 22.940 93,730 CHKPF 99 91 85 275 A $ 35.440 957,783 CKSG 79 98 82 259 A $ 30.500 235,357 CLFY 87 97 94 278 A $ 19.750 539,497 CLX 85 89 78 252 B $ 113.810 398,690 CMVT 97 95 87 279 A $ 64.750 666,800 COF 91 94 71 256 B $ 109.130 575,597 CREE 99 99 99 297 A $ 39.630 581,593 CSCO 97 96 97 290 B $ 78.250 13,903,446 CSGS 84 95 83 262 A $ 60.060 322,580 CTAL 76 96 89 261 B $ 18.130 309,393 CTL 87 93 83 263 B $ 58.880 313,073 CUBE 88 96 98 282 A $ 28.250 985,823 CZM 72 93 73 238 A $ 30.750 209,183 DDDDF 99 92 94 285 B $ 30.750 136,377 DHR 89 91 60 240 A $ 47.500 697,400 DLTR 97 92 64 253 B $ 42.750 348,207 DMMC 72 87 69 228 B $ 15.560 170,053 DT 73 85 83 241 B $ 29.310 135,033 EAT 73 89 66 228 A $ 24.880 293,100 ECILF 93 92 87 272 B $ 39.380 423,373 ECSGY 96 89 83 268 A $ 28.250 122,793 EDMC 99 94 70 263 A $ 46.880 83,300 ELE 78 88 75 241 A $ 26.630 111,300 EMC 96 98 98 292 B $ 79.000 2,843,160 ESRX 95 94 92 281 B $ 54.000 130,560 FLEX 98 99 99 296 A $ 75.750 425,717 FM 96 85 66 247 A $ 19.500 188,553 FMY 90 91 75 256 B $ 54.630 1,051,223 FTU 84 87 72 243 A $ 63.560 2,135,173 GAC 96 93 74 263 B $ 50.440 419,640 GDT 98 92 90 280 B $ 92.000 729,533 GENZ 90 97 92 279 A $ 47.000 1,395,630 GEOC 72 98 94 264 B $ 28.190 216,047 GILTF 96 95 87 278 B $ 52.750 230,443 GMAI 76 99 79 254 A $ 12.500 764,990 GTW 89 87 95 271 B $ 51.310 2,366,290 HLYW 83 99 79 261 A $ 26.340 723,137 HMK 99 87 82 268 B $ 32.560 134,823 IBI 85 86 79 250 B $ 27.810 378,090 IBM 85 94 93 272 B $ 164.250 3,578,327 IDXX 77 94 85 256 B $ 27.380 443,280 IMPH 99 93 68 260 B $ 39.250 86,923 INCY 75 85 92 252 B $ 32.880 269,970 INSO 75 98 94 267 A $ 27.380 138,563 INSS 99 98 83 280 A $ 53.340 218,237 INTL 95 93 87 275 A $ 23.630 197,580 INTV 79 98 87 264 A $ 27.190 318,413 IPG 88 87 82 257 B $ 66.940 359,997 IPL 85 86 75 246 B $ 52.190 84,460 ITWO 99 89 94 282 B $ 26.060 1,262,403 JBL 74 98 99 271 A $ 63.380 453,323 JKHY 99 94 91 284 B $ 52.500 129,943 JP 84 88 65 237 B $ 71.000 195,260 JVLN 76 85 91 252 A $ 11.880 118,637 KEP 76 97 75 248 A $ 15.310 283,913 KR 88 88 75 251 B $ 56.130 1,432,533 KROG 80 93 76 249 A $ 30.000 93,547 LAF 93 85 73 251 A $ 38.250 119,623 LEVL 98 95 91 284 A $ 33.750 1,062,880 LGTO 99 97 94 290 B $ 51.630 910,787 LLTC 89 91 99 279 B $ 79.130 1,179,210 LLY 89 89 89 267 B $ 86.130 2,063,713 LU 97 96 87 280 B $ 95.750 6,102,804 LVCI 76 97 84 257 A $ 17.500 165,073 MACR 76 99 96 271 A $ 27.560 877,783 MAPX 83 88 94 265 B $ 19.130 143,817 MAST 98 91 83 272 B $ 27.560 285,810 MCD 74 86 66 226 B $ 70.000 1,637,827 MCHP 70 95 98 263 A $ 36.750 1,020,853 MCRL 98 94 99 291 B $ 47.630 277,470 MCSC 98 97 80 275 B $ 24.250 102,207 MDT 80 88 85 253 B $ 70.380 1,633,503 MEDQ 95 96 86 277 B $ 33.500 253,303 MELI 94 91 87 272 A $ 15.500 76,623 MERQ 72 94 94 260 B $ 48.630 253,677 METZ 99 93 86 278 B $ 41.690 474,663 MFNX 76 99 83 258 A $ 54.130 386,833 MHP 83 87 86 256 A $ 95.000 340,843 MNMD 98 94 90 282 B $ 73.880 120,220 MRK 81 90 89 260 B $ 157.630 2,396,840 MRX 93 95 89 277 A $ 60.500 178,077 MSFT 97 94 96 287 B $ 127.380 14,699,530 MSPG 76 99 99 274 A $ 59.500 1,824,620 MTD 95 93 65 253 B $ 27.500 123,257 MTP 82 94 75 251 B $ 52.750 249,927 MWHS 84 97 69 250 A $ 28.380 558,737 MXIM 95 92 99 286 B $ 44.630 1,828,570 MYL 74 92 90 256 B $ 34.380 637,800 NCOG 98 97 86 281 A $ 37.750 140,177 NCR 76 91 95 262 A $ 38.810 312,387 NDN 94 93 64 251 A $ 42.000 109,403 NEG 85 93 75 253 B $ 57.440 203,583 NETA 82 93 85 260 B $ 51.500 2,035,153 NLCS 88 95 94 277 A $ 35.250 193,960 NOVL 76 97 97 270 A $ 17.940 6,977,887 NSIT 97 96 97 290 A $ 44.000 356,033 NSOL 84 99 83 266 B $ 59.130 311,220 NTAP 98 98 98 294 B $ 75.000 472,763 NTRS 82 87 72 241 B $ 85.880 333,220 ODP 90 88 80 258 A $ 32.880 1,440,577 ORBKF 90 86 95 271 A $ 40.630 140,523 ORCL 93 95 94 282 A $ 36.560 7,973,036 OSI 82 87 82 251 B $ 24.940 295,963 OSTE 70 92 90 252 A $ 32.380 126,000 OTEXF 76 92 97 265 A $ 19.250 206,423 PAYX 97 93 86 276 B $ 50.880 861,207 PDCO 90 86 81 257 B $ 40.380 116,667 PE 77 95 75 247 A $ 41.250 887,753 PERC 76 94 90 260 A $ 27.880 111,090 PERI 80 94 94 268 A $ 10.940 110,453 PFE 87 86 89 262 B $ 112.440 2,917,816 PGEX 99 86 83 268 A $ 48.750 591,863 PLAB 78 87 95 260 A $ 23.190 502,040 PLCE 94 99 79 272 A $ 18.500 136,990 PLCM 76 98 87 261 A $ 20.630 670,897 PLXS 91 97 99 287 A $ 31.810 132,753 PMS 89 93 91 273 A $ 54.940 158,740 POS 90 88 82 260 A $ 56.940 78,787 PPDI 87 93 68 248 A $ 28.310 300,193 PRGN 80 98 94 272 A $ 37.630 379,657 PRGS 78 95 94 267 B $ 28.630 150,297 PROX 84 96 76 256 A $ 23.880 213,143 PSDI 96 96 94 286 A $ 29.630 126,993 PSSI 95 90 81 266 A $ 22.250 553,577 PVN 96 96 71 263 B $ 93.130 865,473 QLGC 71 99 99 269 A $ 112.250 209,660 QTRN 98 85 68 251 B $ 52.000 851,390 RACN 80 95 68 243 A $ 14.630 94,960 RAD 89 89 94 272 B $ 45.500 1,645,400 RATL 73 97 94 264 A $ 24.130 1,987,847 RCGI 93 87 68 248 B $ 29.000 393,590 RESM 98 97 90 285 B $ 32.000 215,493 RGIS 85 89 79 253 A $ 34.750 140,333 RI 81 91 66 238 A $ 19.000 75,910 RMBS 84 98 96 278 B $ 94.280 942,050 RPC 76 96 89 261 B $ 23.000 150,503 RX 90 90 83 263 B $ 69.190 483,310 RYAN 81 92 66 239 A $ 13.000 120,280 SAI 95 95 71 261 B $ 79.440 928,787 SANM 97 97 99 293 B $ 55.940 949,773 SBC 82 90 81 253 A $ 50.130 3,003,040 SBUX 97 90 66 253 B $ 48.940 1,409,710 SCH 91 96 71 258 B $ 55.880 1,141,223 SCI 76 96 96 268 A $ 52.380 737,710 SCMM 84 90 85 259 B $ 57.000 152,533 SCUR 76 98 85 259 A $ 20.630 389,073 SDG 86 94 85 265 B $ 114.250 334,340 SDLI 92 94 99 285 B $ 28.750 169,377 SEGU 76 95 94 265 A $ 22.130 201,857 SEIC 95 96 83 274 B $ 94.130 81,603 SERO 93 96 68 257 B $ 28.500 137,203 SIPX 71 88 99 258 A $ 31.690 317,887 SLR 89 97 96 282 B $ 70.440 621,853 SNPS 93 93 94 280 A $ 49.630 814,303 SPLS 98 94 80 272 A $ 36.000 2,635,757 STK 88 88 98 274 A $ 39.060 805,563 STT 84 85 72 241 B $ 70.000 383,967 SUNW 94 97 95 286 B $ 75.190 7,866,500 SVU 70 88 74 232 A $ 27.250 441,473 SWY 95 93 75 263 B $ 53.380 2,862,550 SYKE 99 91 83 273 A $ 22.630 190,503 TAGS 97 99 70 266 A $ 33.500 165,103 TEX 76 92 72 240 A $ 27.630 112,303 TGO 90 91 83 264 B $ 28.750 317,510 THQI 99 98 89 286 A $ 28.690 431,333 TJX 92 86 79 257 B $ 25.380 1,885,847 TSFW 98 98 94 290 B $ 37.750 120,593 TWMC 76 92 79 247 B $ 21.750 491,770 TXCC 76 99 99 274 A $ 31.750 328,977 UIS 76 96 91 263 A $ 31.130 1,130,470 UNPH 89 92 87 268 B $ 60.000 858,597 URGI 76 93 79 248 A $ 10.250 95,057 VCELA 76 93 82 251 A $ 23.440 220,260 VISX 78 97 84 259 B $ 73.250 608,533 VOD 96 93 82 271 B $ 142.000 126,517 VRTS 99 95 94 288 A $ 60.750 705,683 VRTY 76 99 96 271 A $ 18.380 545,430 VSVR 83 92 97 272 A $ 13.750 156,867 VTSS 98 97 99 294 B $ 42.250 1,184,057 WAG 85 93 94 272 B $ 54.380 964,710 WAT 97 94 65 256 B $ 79.750 183,290 WCOM 81 94 83 258 B $ 61.810 10,319,349 WHIT 98 91 83 272 B $ 22.560 298,850 WLA 87 92 84 263 B $ 78.440 2,505,833 WPI 93 93 90 276 B $ 56.190 475,373 WSM 92 87 69 248 B $ 28.630 162,743 XIRC 76 98 97 271 B $ 31.250 705,123 XLSW 98 88 87 273 A $ 25.130 146,350 XOMD 99 94 85 278 B $ 27.500 132,498 YHOO 84 99 99 282 A $ 189.750 8,444,037 ZQK 88 95 70 253 A $ 24.000 77,077 - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Peter Newell" Subject: [CANSLIM] =?iso-8859-1?Q?Re:_=5BCANSLIM=5D_O=B4Neil_.?= Date: 07 Dec 1998 12:10:12 -0800 DIEGO KRUKEVER, One thing O'neill advocates is to doing your own homework, you may find w= ays that fit your style better. I like to look at the best stocks from each run and analyze them. And in doing this I have found that picking a real good stock with good and improving fundamentals usually be bought when the market turns, one examp= le Best Buy, went from 35 to 58. Peter Newell -----Original Message----- I have dedicated this weekend to study O=B4Neil, the interviews and the lessons, let=B4s see how this can impact in my invetsing philosophy and i= n my profits (or looses). SALUDOS, DIEGO KRUKEVER.- - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Scott Vickery Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Weekly Stock List - 12/04/1998 Date: 07 Dec 1998 07:41:15 -0500 Nice list. Whare are you using to generate htis list? Scott Ronald J. Russell, Jr. wrote: > All, > > I tightened up the selection criteria this week. Here's what I am now using: > > EPS > 69 > RS > 84 > GRS > 59 (New Criteria) > A/D = "A" or "B" > CLOSE > 10.00 (Was > 7.00) > 30 Day ADV > 75,000 > > The result was to bring the list down to 245. > > Trade Well, > Ron - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: dbphoenix Subject: [CANSLIM] Security SW Date: 07 Dec 1998 10:23:05 -0800 (PST) On my website last Friday, I noted that Security SW was one of the most rapidly accelerating groups. Two of the three stocks I mentioned at the time are doing well today, particularly VRSN. For those of you who are looking for something new, this may be a group worth investigating. --Db == "Lessons are repeated until they are learned." http://home.talkcity.com/MoneySt/dbphoenix/ _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Charles Cangialosi" Subject: [CANSLIM] NASDAQ Date: 07 Dec 1998 19:08:42 -0500 Patrick, I took your advice and printed out a copy of the NAZ for 5 years. I found that the 10% over the 200 DMA was a done deal every time in fact it was heigher. However the 24% over the previous low was interesting. There were 5 major corrections each was at least 24% above the previous low. The highest was 39%. The lowest was the recent correction was only up 17% from the previous low. That one was up 30% from the prior. The drop from the 17% point which was over 2000 was down to about 1340 and now we are up to 2040 which is 34% which is the second highest. I think Ian is pretty good at this and feel like I want to listen to his recommendations. OTOH, I keep getting opinions like if it is over 2040 it is time to buy. So do I sell the far and buy stocks or run for cover? Charlie - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] NASDAQ Date: 07 Dec 1998 20:08:04 -0500 Charlie, There's a grave danger in trying to anticipate what will transpire in the future on the basis of what has gone on before. Conditions over the past five years, just as sentiments, have changed dramatically. As little as two years ago, the Asian flu had not even been heard of, the only real question in the equation was how long the US economy could continue to expand. There was little thought being given to global economies, and the mere idea that Greenspan would cut rates for the benefit of the global economy, esp at the potential risk of domestic inflation, was heresy. Another risk is that predictive analysis is not CANSLIM. Note Wm O'Neil's words on trailing PE ratios vs forecasted ones (1st edition HTMMIS, Chapter 2, pp. 18-20). It's not so much what a company (or a collection of companies, e.g. the market) has done before, it's what it's expected to do in the future. Personally, I think Nasdaq's in dangerously overbot territory right now, but that's not to say that it won't break 2100, or even 2200, in the next few weeks (or even days, for that matter). I wish it would take a few weeks off and consolidate, a chart at the highs but basing like the R2000 would give me a much better feeling about "M", esp with NYSE looking so weak. Tom W -----Original Message----- Cc: pwahl@postoffice.worldnet.att.net Patrick, I took your advice and printed out a copy of the NAZ for 5 years. I found that the 10% over the 200 DMA was a done deal every time in fact it was heigher. However the 24% over the previous low was interesting. There were 5 major corrections each was at least 24% above the previous low. The highest was 39%. The lowest was the recent correction was only up 17% from the previous low. That one was up 30% from the prior. The drop from the 17% point which was over 2000 was down to about 1340 and now we are up to 2040 which is 34% which is the second highest. I think Ian is pretty good at this and feel like I want to listen to his recommendations. OTOH, I keep getting opinions like if it is over 2040 it is time to buy. So do I sell the far and buy stocks or run for cover? Charlie - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Joe Scott" Subject: [CANSLIM] BOP Date: 07 Dec 1998 20:18:41 -0500 Anyone know anything about this BOP indicator of Telechart 2000? I have owned SDTI for about 6 weeks now, and the past few days the BOP indicator has gone into distribution from accumulation while price is still rising, looks like its coming into some overhead resistance but anyone see any reason why I should cash it in?? I have my stop set at mentally at 13.50,, I have some support around 14, and it was upgraded today. This stock isn't CS. joe - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Joe Scott" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] NASDAQ Date: 07 Dec 1998 20:27:19 -0500 >>>>I wish it would take a few weeks off and consolidate, a chart at the highs but basing like the R2000 would give me a much better feeling about "M", esp with NYSE looking so weak.<<<<< I'll sure second that... A nice step to rest on would make me feel better about continuing up.. joe - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "james sullivan" Subject: [CANSLIM] new site Date: 07 Dec 1998 20:40:22 -0500 i just found this site...hope someone finds it useful! http://www.justquotes.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Joe Scott" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] DGO New Highs Date: 07 Dec 1998 20:58:25 -0500 Tom, Thanks for taking the time to post that list,, I just moved it into TC 2000 and will be sifting through it.. Recognized plenty of old friends in it,, also was already in a couple of them.. Thanks joe - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: dbphoenix Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] new site Date: 07 Dec 1998 18:04:30 -0800 (PST) Cool site, James. Thanks. --Db == "Lessons are repeated until they are learned." http://home.talkcity.com/MoneySt/dbphoenix/ _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Eatstock@aol.com Subject: [CANSLIM] IBI - Date: 07 Dec 1998 20:58:05 EST I noticed that IBI has just announced a web site and made it onto Rons list. It had strong volume today with little price change. This is the company which owns Victorias Secret. Now we all know this is a winning product line... I may take a small stake if it doesnt gap too far from tangibility. Let me know what you guys think..TA wise, CS wise Thanks Chris - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "S Menon" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Weekly Stock List - 12/04/1998 Date: 07 Dec 1998 18:10:16 PST Ron, Thanks for sharing the list with us. I think I have found a good one from your last list with >$7 criteria - CMED, it's getting ready to break out. Looks like a good company. I noticed this company last year but it went down with the RUT and I dropped it from my watch list. Any opinion before I take a plunge ? Thanks SMenon >From: "Ronald J. Russell, Jr." >To: "Canslim-Digest \(E-mail\)" >Subject: [CANSLIM] Weekly Stock List - 12/04/1998 >Date: Sun, 6 Dec 1998 23:22:02 -0500 >Reply-To: canslim@lists.xmission.com > >All, > >I tightened up the selection criteria this week. Here's what I am now using: > >EPS > 69 >RS > 84 >GRS > 59 (New Criteria) >A/D = "A" or "B" >CLOSE > 10.00 (Was > 7.00) >30 Day ADV > 75,000 > >The result was to bring the list down to 245. > >Trade Well, >Ron > > > ______________________________________________________ Get Your Private, Free Email at http://www.hotmail.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "james sullivan" Subject: [CANSLIM] LXK Date: 07 Dec 1998 21:24:08 -0500 LXK was posted here just recently, as a part of someone's research...didn't save the message :( Does anyone know (or willing to guess) the reason(s) behind the way it was traded today?? Thanks!! - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Patrick Wahl" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] NASDAQ Date: 07 Dec 1998 21:57:56 -0800 > I think Ian is pretty good at this and feel like I want to listen to his > recommendations. OTOH, I keep getting opinions like if it is over 2040 it is > time to buy. So do I sell the far and buy stocks or run for cover? Ian certainly is better at this than I am. I think Tom said most of what I was thinking. I try not to anticipate where the market is going. I do kind of try to figure out where it is going, but I don't act on that opinion too often, usually wrong. I would say if you have stocks with a profit, hang in there, if you see something you like breakout and you have some cash, jump on it. If you keep the discipline and cut losses at 8-10%, nothing too bad can happen. - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Patrick Wahl" Subject: [CANSLIM] MMGR Date: 07 Dec 1998 22:05:14 -0800 Medical Manager (MMGR) looks sort of primed to take off here. EPS and RS > 90, GRS is weak at C, other numbers (letters) from IBD are A's. Average volume is 170K. - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Tim Fisher Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] NASDAQ Date: 07 Dec 1998 21:07:57 -0800 I don't have a clue where it is going, all I know is I "think" the big cap techs breaking out lately will hold; picked up LU and INTC (NON-CANSLIM) on limit orders this AM at an attractive price, compared to their closing price today. I like some of the new ones on my scan also, esp. AEOS PGEX and OSTE but they need to base a bit and I am all in again, so have to watch them from the sidelines ;( At 09:57 PM 12/7/98 -0800, you wrote: >From: "Charles Cangialosi" >To: "canslim" > >> I think Ian is pretty good at this and feel like I want to listen to his >> recommendations. OTOH, I keep getting opinions like if it is over 2040 it is >> time to buy. So do I sell the far and buy stocks or run for cover? > >Ian certainly is better at this than I am. I think Tom said most of >what I was thinking. I try not to anticipate where the market is >going. I do kind of try to figure out where it is going, but I don't act >on that opinion too often, usually wrong. I would say if you have >stocks with a profit, hang in there, if you see something you like >breakout and you have some cash, jump on it. If you keep the >discipline and cut losses at 8-10%, nothing too bad can happen. > Tim Fisher, 1995 President, Pacific Fishery Biologists Ore-ROCK-On Rockhounding Web Site PFB Information mailto:tim@OreRockOn.com WWW http://OreRockOn.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Connie Mack Rea Subject: [CANSLIM] Technical stuff: oil service stocks [Connie Mack] Date: 08 Dec 1998 09:14:16 -0500 Oil service stocks have been nearly demolished. The smell of death and oil is as nauseating as it is depressing. Hard to imagine how oil can go much lower. Now might be a good time to be presumptuous and take a look at the oil well services. You'll see some double and triple bottoms, an occasional STO and MACD buy signal, and an even rarer MF or OBV, but not both. You might look at these: OII OLOG RIG UTI I will try to buy small lots this morning. For those who are still investing/trading in MU, AMD, and NOVL, you have some delicious profits. I am still day/swing trading all three (and no others). If you have not taken any profits, you ought to consider letting go of a half or a third of any position. Greed is a lovely succabus whom no one has ever tamed. I have advised my faculty stock group, some of whom have almost doubled their positions in MU, to let go half of all positions in each of the three stocks. Bright people are sometimes superlatively greedy. They are always textbook wise and, therefore, rational--except about the irrational market. Two in the group have made more than their salaries in four months. I hope they can take losses with the same aplomb that they have taken gains. I hate to see PhDs cry. Connie Mack - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: David Reid Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Technical stuff: oil service stocks [Connie Mack] Date: 08 Dec 1998 09:18:48 -0800 I bought NE and VRC last thursday connie. I agree with your opinion on the sector. I bought some to trade and some to hold. David Connie Mack Rea wrote: > Oil service stocks have been nearly demolished. The smell of death and > oil is as nauseating as it is depressing. > > Hard to imagine how oil can go much lower. Now might be a good time to > be presumptuous and take a look at the oil well services. You'll see > some double and triple bottoms, an occasional STO and MACD buy signal, > and an even rarer MF or OBV, but not both. > > You might look at these: > > OII OLOG RIG UTI > > I will try to buy small lots this morning. > > For those who are still investing/trading in MU, AMD, and NOVL, you have > some delicious profits. I am still day/swing trading all three (and no > others). If you have not taken any profits, you ought to consider > letting go of a half or a third of any position. Greed is a lovely > succabus whom no one has ever tamed. > > I have advised my faculty stock group, some of whom have almost doubled > their positions in MU, to let go half of all positions in each of the > three stocks. Bright people are sometimes superlatively greedy. They > are always textbook wise and, therefore, rational--except about the > irrational market. Two in the group have made more than their salaries > in four months. I hope they can take losses with the same aplomb that > they have taken gains. I hate to see PhDs cry. > > Connie Mack > > - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Ari Lawson Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Security SW Date: 08 Dec 1998 10:11:50 -0500 Where can I get a list of the stocks in this group?Thanks Ari dbphoenix wrote: > On my website last Friday, I noted that Security SW was one of the > most rapidly accelerating groups. Two of the three stocks I mentioned > at the time are doing well today, particularly VRSN. For those of you > who are looking for something new, this may be a group worth > investigating. > > --Db > > == > > "Lessons are repeated until they are learned." > > http://home.talkcity.com/MoneySt/dbphoenix/ > > _________________________________________________________ > DO YOU YAHOO!? > Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com > > - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Jeffry White Subject: [CANSLIM] On Sentiment? Date: 08 Dec 1998 10:08:500 -0500 "In individuals, insanity is rare; but in groups, parties, nations and epochs, it is the rule." -Friedrich Nietzsche - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Craig A. Griffin" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] On Sentiment? Date: 08 Dec 1998 10:42:05 -0500 At 10:16 AM 12/8/98 -0500, Jeffry wrote: >"In individuals, insanity is rare; but in groups, parties, nations and >epochs, it is the rule." > > -Friedrich Nietzsche Thin reed: retailers here in the Raleigh-Durham area state that they have never seen a Christmas buying spree like this one. Big ticket items are flying off the shelves. Mania's can run beyond all reason. You have to go with the flow, because it can be hard to separate a mania from the market seeing things that you don't. The NASDAQ had a breakout from a huge cup with handle type of formation yesterday. As Tim pointed out, the big cap techs are leading (AOL, YHOO, INTC earlier and now CPQ, MSFT, LU are picking up the pace). With this type of leadership, the market is still showing the green light (bull mode). As Patrick mentioned, you have to participate and use your selling rules from HTMMIS to get out of things that don't work out or which have climax runs. Nearly nothing I have bought on a decent looking breakout lately has threatened my 8% stop (but then I have been buying the leadership mentioned above, mostly, with only a bit of dabbling in the mid-caps and small caps. My earlier post on the distribution day that I judged as a sell signal actually caused me to sell my two weakest holdings. The breakouts that I have bought since then are performing better than those I sold. So net-net, I am about even on those trades (vs. holding straight through), but feel that I am in better stocks than the two I let go (the new ones are acting better). So even the invalid "sell signal" reading (if you can call it that) worked out well. Hopefully the markets will consolidate a bit right around these levels, or just above, before working their way higher. The volatility at the old resistance seems to have been a brief rotation during a decisive period. I am starting to rub my hands a bit (thanks for mentioning that phrase, Johan). So I continue to be worried ... (will this market breakout turn out to be just a fakeout? - who knows, but the leadership acting well relieves my worry a bit for now). Best Regards, Craig PS. Thanks for the thoughtful post on the oils Connie. A contrarian, non-Canslim type of thinking, of course, but well worth consideration for those who also play outside of the CS universe. Interesting, but probably not for me. - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Joe Scott" Subject: [CANSLIM] Market Watch Date: 08 Dec 1998 11:42:42 -0500 I know several here enjoy this site, including me.. Clipped from,Steve Harmon's stock report >>>>>Financial News Site: CBS MarketWatch.com Eyes Going Public Don't blink but the ever-evolving and constantly content driven financial news site CBS MarketWatch.com filed to go public at what our analysis shows could be 18x annualized quarterly sales or an estimated 10x 1999 sales. The San Francisco-based outfit employs 40 journalists to varying degrees (fulltime to freelance) to produce daily stock market news and commentary and wants to sell a piece of the operation to the public, some 2.75 million shares at a target $11 per share through underwriters led by BT Alex.Brown. With 11.75 million shares outstanding after the offer, or 13.66 million fully-diluted shares counting options, MarketWatch seeks a $150 million initial market cap. See table at http://www.internetnews.com/stocks/ MarketWatch (the official company name) posted $1.79 million sales and $2.54 million loss for the quarter ending September 30, 1998. The site began as DBC in 1995 and later formed a 50-50 joint venture with CBS for MarketWatch in October, 1997. CBS kicked in ad time on CBS TV and radio networks now through the year 2002 in exchange for its equity position. The ad value was originally set at $50 million then reduced to $30 million. After the IPO, both CBS and DBC will own 38% of MarketWatch.com and effectively control it. In addition, CBS gets a piece of all revenue, 6% to 8% (down from 30%). For October it reported 2.2 million users and 48 million page views and charged a CPM ad rate between $25 and $50, about double what a larger general purpose Web content aggregator may charge. More than 75 firms have advertised on the site including brokerages, financial news sites, and a few consumer goods firms. Four clients made up about half its ad revenue as of year-end 1997. Risks: the usual suspects--heavy competition from portals, financial magazine Web sites, online services, year 2000 unknowns (bugs in computers systems that may occur as a result of the year "2000" being unrecognized by some computer systems), uncertainty of ad market. Rewards: CBS MarketWatch has built a widespread offering of financial content with some top-notch writers and editors. Although the revenues lag its distant kissing cousin, CBS Sportline.com, we think MarketWatch may perform somewhat like Sportsline (NASDAQ:SPLN) in terms of growth and stock movement over time. Finance and sports are amazingly similar content businesses, both stat driven and real-time oriented with huge followings. The real question is if CBS TV and radio can drive people to use MarketWatch, can the 'Eye Network" deliver the eyeballs? Sportsline, for example, saw spikes in its usage following CBS broadcasting the Olympics and promos pointing to Sportsline.com, but traffic waned afterwards. Finance sites have similar spikes around big market swings up or down and some tapering off in between. And $30 million ad time may seem like a lot but in the high-rolling world of TV and radio time it's not. Nearly $6 million has already been spent with years to go on the contract. joe - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: dbphoenix Subject: [CANSLIM] CLFY Date: 09 Dec 1998 03:55:46 +1100 (EST) is breaking out on 2.5X ADV. Comp SW-Enterprise is one of the groups I've listed as having the highest intermediate-term RS. --Db == "Lessons are repeated until they are learned." http://home.talkcity.com/MoneySt/dbphoenix/ _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: dbphoenix Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Security SW Date: 09 Dec 1998 01:29:47 +0800 (SGT) <> If you mean the stocks mentioned on the website, go to the Home Page from the link below, then Workshop, then Workshop C. If you mean the entire group, you'd have to go to the IBD Ticker Symbol Guide. Perhaps someone here has a copy and would be willing to provide the list. Or perhaps IBD has done a recent feature and provided a list. --Db == "Lessons are repeated until they are learned." http://home.talkcity.com/MoneySt/dbphoenix/ _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: dbphoenix Subject: [CANSLIM] Re CLFY and SW Enterprise Date: 09 Dec 1998 04:26:23 +1100 (EST) BOBJY seems to be following suit--1.5X ADV and coming through resistance. --Db == "Lessons are repeated until they are learned." http://home.talkcity.com/MoneySt/dbphoenix/ _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Rich Ralph Subject: [CANSLIM] .com Internet stocks Date: 08 Dec 1998 13:08:26 -0500 This article fits in with our discussion of .com Internet stocks... Wrong! Dispatches from the Front: Devastation at the Hands of .com Mania By James J. Cramer 12/7/98 3:32 PM ET =A9 1998 TheStreet.com, All Rights Reserved. Attention, everybody else in the online and off-line media:=20 Will you please focus on how the .com stock business works? No, not the corporate .com business, but the stock-trading aspects. The fundamentals have become so divorced from the stocks that the life cycle (Web page, CNBC tease, CNBC) has become almost comical. Yet no one, not TheStreet.com or The Wall Street Journal or any other publication or service, has done this story.=20 I tried to do it a bit with Wavephore (WAVO:Nasdaq) on CNBC last week, but the consequence for me is that immediately I get referred to the Securities and Exchange Commission even though I have never once traded the darn thing!=20 Someone has to go to one of these day-trading shops and figure out the process by which a Thrustmaster (TMSR:Nasdaq) gets thrust into the multimillion-dollar-cap segment of the market after being a dog for years. (Now all the TMSRers will pillory me. Come get me, wise guys!!) Someone has to show the havoc and destruction this whole mania is causing to the traditional players in Nasdaq, all of whom have since stopped making money.=20 Someone has to elaborate on the game that is being played, explain it to us -- heck, even go undercover as a day trader. This phenomenon is the most important sea change that has occurred in the market in years, yet nobody is covering it.=20 =20 Best regards, Rich Ralph - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Connie Mack Rea Subject: [CANSLIM] Correction of general ignorance. {Connie Mack} Date: 08 Dec 1998 13:11:21 -0500 I wrote "succabus." I do know better. "Succubus." Sorry. Connie Mack - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Krukever Subject: [CANSLIM] M Date: 08 Dec 1998 23:09:12 -0300 The secret is to indentify the market turns. It isn=B4t easy to find the moment for Best Buy like you said. You cannot buy at the very bottom of the market because at that point you don=B4t have a turnaround signal until it makes it first up move.- Good trading, Diego Krukever.- =20 -----Original Message----- DIEGO KRUKEVER, One thing O'neill advocates is to doing your own homework, you may find ways that fit your style better. I like to look at the best stocks from each run and analyze them. And in doing this I have found that picking a real good stock with good and improving fundamentals usually be bought when the market turns, one example Best Buy, went from 35 to 58. Peter Newell - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] On Sentiment? Date: 08 Dec 1998 21:31:01 -0500 Retail sales levels, along with the continued pattern of consumer spending exceeding growth in income, and continued monthly record bankruptcy filings, is why I continue to hold, and maybe add to, my position in EPIQ. It's just such a shame that the "M" for small caps is so poor, or this would likely have most of the CS criteria. Unfortunately, holding and/or buying right now is anything but CANSLIM. Tom W -----Original Message----- Thin reed: retailers here in the Raleigh-Durham area state that they have never seen a Christmas buying spree like this one. Big ticket items are flying off the shelves. - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Ronald J. Russell, Jr." Subject: [CANSLIM] Re: Weekly Stock List Date: 08 Dec 1998 21:42:42 -0500 I'm glad you like the list. I use a combination of Excel and MS Access = =3D to pull the data together from several different sources. No one = =3D service/site has everything I would like to see. Ron <> - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] Fw: Bill Gates Buys Out Santa Date: 08 Dec 1998 22:33:55 -0500 An early Merry Christmas to all, and to all a good night. Tom W >> THE NIGHT BEFORE CHRISTMAS >> >> 'Twas the night before Christmas, when all through the house >> Not a creature was stirring, except Papa's mouse. >> The computer was humming, the icons were hopping, >> As Papa did last-minute Internet shopping. >> The stockings were hung by the modem with care >> In hope that St. Nicholas would bring new software. >> The children were nestled all snug in their beds, >> While visions of computer games danced in their heads. >> >> Dark Forces for Billy, and Doom II for Dan, >> And Carmen Sandiego for Pamela Ann. >> The letters to Santa had been sent out by Mom, >> To santaclaus@toyshop.northpole.com- >> Which has now been re-routed to Washington State >> Because Santa's workshop has been bought by Bill Gates. >> All the elves and reindeer have had to skedaddle >> To flashy new quarters in suburban Seattle. >> >> After centuries of life that was simple and spare, >> St. Nicholas is suddenly a new billionaire, >> With a shiny red Porsche in the place of his sleigh, >> And a house on Lake Washington that's just down the way >> From where Bill has his mansion. The old fellow preens >> In black Gucci boots and red Calvin Klein jeans. >> The elves have stock options and desks with a view, >> Where they write computer code for Johnny and Sue. >> No more dolls or toy soldiers or little toy drums >> Will be under the tree, only compact disk ROMS >> With Microsoft labels. So spin up your drive, >> From now on Christmas runs only on Windows 95. >> >> More rapid than eagles the competitors came, >> And Bill whistled, and shouted and called them by name. >> "Now, ADOBE! now, CLARIS! now, INTUIT! too, >> Now, APPLE! and NETSCAPE! you are all through, >> It is Microsoft's SANTA that the kids can't resist, >> It's the ultimate software with a traditional twist - >> Recommended by no less than the jolly old elf, >> And the package, a picture of Santa himself. >> Get 'em young, keep 'em long, is Microsoft's scheme, >> And a merger with Santa is a marketer's dream. >> To the top of the NASDAQ! to the top of the Dow! >> Now dash away! Dash away! Dash away - wow!" >> >> And Mama in her 'kerchief and I in my cap, >> Had just settled down for a long winter's nap, >> When out on the lawn there arose such a clatter, >> The whirr and the hum of our satellite platter, >> As it turned toward that new Christmas star in the sky, >> The SANTALITE owned by the Microsoft guy. >> As I sprang from my bed and was turning around, >> My computer turned on with a Jingle-Bells sound. >> And there on the screen was a smiling Bill Gates >> Next to jolly old Santa, two arm-in-arm mates. >> And I heard them exclaim in voice so bright, >> Have a MICROSOFT CHRISTMAS, >> and TO ALL A GOOD NIGHT! THE NIGHT BEFORE CHRISTMAS >> >> - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: TM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Security SW Date: 09 Dec 1998 13:05:02 +1100 (EST) ALDNF, AXNT, CTSC CHKPF, CYBG, CYLK, DVNTF, HNCS, ISFEA, MEMCF, SKY.TO, NETA, RNBO, SCMM, VONE, VRSN from IBD INDUSTRY BOOK TM ---dbphoenix wrote: > > > <> > > If you mean the stocks mentioned on the website, go to the Home Page > from the link below, then Workshop, then Workshop C. If you mean the > entire group, you'd have to go to the IBD Ticker Symbol Guide. > Perhaps someone here has a copy and would be willing to provide the > list. Or perhaps IBD has done a recent feature and provided a list. > > --Db > > > > > == > > "Lessons are repeated until they are learned." > > http://home.talkcity.com/MoneySt/dbphoenix/ > > > > _________________________________________________________ > DO YOU YAHOO!? > Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com > > > - > > _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Krukever Subject: [CANSLIM] =?iso-8859-1?Q?Santa=B4s?= gift.- Date: 09 Dec 1998 01:07:21 -0300 I=B4ve been loosing some money with the ipo=B4s, hoping for recovering and waiting for santa=B4s gift, i=B4ve entered in xcit and seek. Besides, my stocks seem to be asleep, the only stops i get are loosing ones. I hope they begin to go up, especially cmvt and mxim or aeos. SALUDOS, DIEGO KRUKEVER.- - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Charles Cangialosi" Subject: [CANSLIM] M Date: 09 Dec 1998 05:33:36 -0500 Thanks for the replies on the NASDAQ. I re-read M in HTMMIS last night. I was hit by his comment about not trying to predict the market, oddly enough it was mentioned when I read the list this morning. I sold INTC yesterday, I had a big gain. My reason, when I saw the NASDAQ turn yesterday afternoon. I was thinking that I was really going to go down so I locked in my profit. Possibly a stupid move. I am almost all in cash right now, which is also probably a stupid move. I wont have time to look at things till later today. Maybe I can buy something. Charlie - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Jeffry White <"postwhit@sover.net"@sover.net> Subject: [CANSLIM] On Sentiment? Date: 09 Dec 1998 06:34:35 -0500 Craig wrote: > My earlier post on the distribution day that I judged as a sell signal > actually caused me to sell my two weakest holdings. The breakouts that I > have bought since then are performing better than those I sold. So > net-net, I am about even on those trades (vs. holding straight through), > but feel that I am in better stocks than the two I let go (the new ones are > acting better). So even the invalid "sell signal" reading (if you can call > it that) worked out well. Distibution day on Tuesday in all indices. Jeffry - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Frank V. Wolynski" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Security SW Date: 09 Dec 1998 06:44:29 -0500 At 10:11 AM 12/8/98 -0500, you wrote: >Where can I get a list of the stocks in this group?Thanks > Ari > >dbphoenix wrote: > >> On my website last Friday, I noted that Security SW was one of the >> most rapidly accelerating groups. Two of the three stocks I mentioned >> at the time are doing well today, particularly VRSN. For those of you >> who are looking for something new, this may be a group worth >> investigating. >> --Db One of the smaller groups. Computer Software-Security ALDNF - Aladdin Knowledge Sys AXNT - Axent Technologies Inc CTSC - Cellular Technical Svcs CHKPF - Check Point Software Tech CYBG - Cyberguard Corp CYLK - Cylink Corp DVNTF - Diversinet Corp HNCS - HNC Software Inc ISSX - ISS Group Inc ISFEA - Infosafe Systems Inc MEMCF - Memco Software Limited MKY.TO - Milkyway Networks Corp NETA - Network Associates Inc RNBO - Rainbow Technologies SCMM - SCM Microsystems Inc VONE - V-One Corporation VRSN - Verisign Inc Regards, Frank Wolynski - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Scott Vickery Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Re: Weekly Stock List Date: 09 Dec 1998 03:20:42 -0500 Ronald J. Russell, Jr. wrote: > I'm glad you like the list. I use a combination of Excel and MS Access = to pull the data together from several different sources. No one = service/site has everything I would like to see. > Ron > < Scott>> > > - If you don't mind my asking: what is coming from which source? I certainly don't mind using several tools to get a job done. Scott - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Dave Wood" Subject: [CANSLIM] DB's site Date: 09 Dec 1998 08:34:27 -0500 DB, Just left your site - I plan to integrate several parts of your system into my trading plan; maybe even cut my workday down a bit. I have one question. You say "sixth step is to head to WSRN", What is the address of WSRN ? Dave - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Joe Scott" Subject: [CANSLIM] security sector article Date: 09 Dec 1998 08:30:27 -0500 This is an article by Steve Harmon on the security sector that has been mentioned here so much lately. http://fnews.yahoo.com/isdex/98/12/09/morning_981209.html joe - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: dbphoenix Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] DB's site Date: 10 Dec 1998 00:41:41 +1100 (EST) <> Looks like I neglected to link it. http://www.wsrn.com/ --Db == "Lessons are repeated until they are learned." http://home.talkcity.com/MoneySt/dbphoenix/ _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: dbphoenix Subject: [CANSLIM] Yesterday's posts Date: 10 Dec 1998 01:23:48 +1100 (EST) I made some posts yesterday morning regarding SW-Enterprise and CLFY and BOBJY but they haven't come back to me, so I assume they were eaten by the power outage. In any case, these may pull back to support. If so, you may want to look at them. The group is a strong one. Other high RS and accelerating groups are listed at my site. --Db == "Lessons are repeated until they are learned." http://home.talkcity.com/MoneySt/dbphoenix/ _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Deepak Kapur Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Yesterday's posts Date: 09 Dec 1998 09:27:54 -0500 (EST) Db, I did receive your posts on BOBJY and CLFY. So they did clear through the mailing list. Deepak - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: rolatzi Subject: [CANSLIM] LGTO Date: 09 Dec 1998 22:36:23 +0800 (SGT) LGTO is close to a break out at around 55 and fraction. The volume has dried up nicely and it completing a hybrid cup funnel. It may make a handle but judging from recent break outs many handles are too small to hold. Ciao, rolatzi _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Peter Newell" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] M Date: 09 Dec 1998 09:46:40 -0800 Krukever, That's right. I went in when the electric utilities tanked on a mini leap= of faith based on extensive research of what happens when the market turns a= nd high RS stocks. Since the fundamentals were still in place it and the st= ock was correcting normally, I went for it. Peter Newell ---------- The secret is to indentify the market turns. It isn=B4t easy to find the moment for Best Buy like you said. You cannot buy at the very bottom of t= he market because at that point you don=B4t have a turnaround signal until i= t makes it first up move.- Good trading, Diego Krukever.- -----Original Message----- DIEGO KRUKEVER, One thing O'neill advocates is to doing your own homework, you may find w= ays that fit your style better. I like to look at the best stocks from each run and analyze them. And in doing this I have found that picking a real good stock with good and improving fundamentals usually be bought when the market turns, one examp= le Best Buy, went from 35 to 58. Peter Newell - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Tim Fisher Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] security sector article Date: 09 Dec 1998 06:45:30 -0800 Not the same thing. He's talking about a small subsector of computer security software focused on internet applications. I'd venture that none of the companies mentioned in the article are remotely CANSLIM. At 08:30 AM 12/9/98 -0500, you wrote: >This is an article by Steve Harmon on the security sector that has been >mentioned here so much lately. >http://fnews.yahoo.com/isdex/98/12/09/morning_981209.html > >joe > Tim Fisher, 1995 President, Pacific Fishery Biologists Ore-ROCK-On Rockhounding Web Site PFB Information mailto:tim@OreRockOn.com WWW http://OreRockOn.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Tim Fisher Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] LGTO Date: 09 Dec 1998 06:57:00 -0800 Hmmm, was in this one before it was "discovered" quite so heavily. Do you think it really could break out with so much of the float held by institutions already? COMP-SOFTWARE Legato Systems TICKER LGTO EXCHANGE NSDQ SHARES OUT 37 24WK PCHG% 51.84 % INSTITUT 81.64 % INSIDERS 5.17 20D AVEVOL 600500 TREND EPGR 56.22 QEPS 0/-4 73.91 QEPS -1/-5 76.47 QEPS -2/-6 52.94 QEPS -3/-7 44.44 ROE 21.83 D/Equity 0.00 At 10:36 PM 12/9/98 +0800, you wrote: >LGTO is close to a break out at around 55 and fraction. The volume >has dried up nicely and it completing a hybrid cup funnel. It may >make a handle but judging from recent break outs many handles are too >small to hold. >Ciao, >rolatzi > > > > >_________________________________________________________ >DO YOU YAHOO!? >Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com > > >- > Tim Fisher, 1995 President, Pacific Fishery Biologists Ore-ROCK-On Rockhounding Web Site PFB Information mailto:tim@OreRockOn.com WWW http://OreRockOn.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Joe Scott" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] security sector article Date: 09 Dec 1998 10:34:07 -0500 Tim you wrote,,, >>>Not the same thing. He's talking about a small subsector of computer security software focused on internet applications. I'd venture that none of the companies mentioned in the article are remotely CANSLIM<<<< I don't know where you get that?? The exact three Db talked about are listed along with 3 others that are in the index,, look under Security.. along with some verbiage about these being overlooked stocks... Db had mentioned AXNT NETA VRSN,, I have been watching this group for some time because I have had a position in SDTI for 7 weeks.. I don't recall Db mentioning that these were pure CS plays. I only posted the link for the benefit of those that were also watching these stocks. joe Db, if I mention any of this in error please let me know,, I don't believe I have made a mistake with this.. - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Tim Fisher Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] security sector article Date: 09 Dec 1998 08:12:47 -0800 I reiterate: the article was tallking about a handful of the dozens of computer security co's, as provided in the full list posted to the group. The full group is doing very well in the group charts being posted to the list, no doubt in part due to the performance of the net security issues. I just wanted to point out that the "Security software" group in the article is not the same group as the IBD industry group. I could pick on the four you mention, but suffice it to say that there are many better out there that are basing or breaking out now. Each one has some faults that would keep them off my CANSLIM watch list. On 07:34 AM 12/9/98 , Joe Scott Said: >Tim you wrote,,, > >>>>Not the same thing. He's talking about a small subsector of computer >security >software focused on internet applications. I'd venture that none of the >companies mentioned in the article are remotely CANSLIM<<<< > >I don't know where you get that?? >The exact three Db talked about are listed along with 3 others that are in >the index,, look under Security.. along with some verbiage about these >being overlooked stocks... >Db had mentioned AXNT NETA VRSN,, I have been watching this group for some >time because I have had a position in SDTI for 7 weeks.. > >I don't recall Db mentioning that these were pure CS plays. > >I only posted the link for the benefit of those that were also watching >these stocks. > >joe > >Db, > if I mention any of this in error please let me know,, I don't believe I >have made a mistake with this.. > Tim Fisher Ore-Rock-On and Pacific Fishery Biologists WWW Sites Tim@OreRockOn.com WWW: http://OreRockOn.com See naked fish and rocks! - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Dennis Lehman Subject: [CANSLIM] BOP Date: 09 Dec 1998 12:52:49 -0500 I just look at your chart the bop, is not good, moneystream and TSV are fine but Candlestix are show a doji which means a change of trend meaning either a sideways movement or down, also you have high volume with no further increase in price which is a CANSLIM warning. You are correct about support at $14.00. I do not know at what price you purchased the stock, I would guess at $10.00, you already have a good profit , you may want to take some. I would keep a very sharp eye on it. The only information about Bop is in your help menu, goto contents, goto Learn more about TC2000., goto How you can do a BOP scan. There is more about BOP under Index. Dennis - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: dbphoenix Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] security sector article Date: 10 Dec 1998 01:43:44 +0800 (SGT) <> Not that I know of. Are we back to discussing CANSLIM only? It's so hard to keep track. --Db == "Lessons are repeated until they are learned." http://home.talkcity.com/MoneySt/dbphoenix/ _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Frank V. Wolynski" Subject: [CANSLIM] Internet Access - GTE offers ADSL Date: 09 Dec 1998 13:13:16 -0500 I received the following email today from GTE. Thought some of you Internuts might be interested. Regards, Frank Wolynski Work the web at new speeds up to 25 times faster than 56K with DSL from GTE Internetworking. GTE is excited to be the first to offer you this new, state-of-the-art DSL (Digital Subscriber Line) service, with speeds up to 1.5 Mbps. With DSL, you can work the web, play games and download at the highest possible speeds. DSL keeps you constantly connected to the Internet, so you're always just a few clicks away from your favorite Internet activity. And, it works with your current phone line. Here's a look at a few of the benefits of DSL: - Speeds up to 25 times faster than a 56K modem - Dedicated access - you're connected to the Internet 24 hours a day - Works on your existing phone line - Work the Web and talk or fax simultaneously - No more disconnects for busy signals You can be one of the first to take advantage of this exciting new technology from GTE Internetworking - so fasten your seat belt, and give us a call today to see if your area qualifies for DSL: 1-888-483-9703. GTE Internetworking **NOTE: DSL service is dependent upon local network conditions and distance from Central Office in each area. Each phone line must be tested and qualified. Testing may be done at time of order. DSL not available in all areas. - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "John Adair, M.D." Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] M Date: 09 Dec 1998 12:56:26 -0600 I am not sure how much weight to put on the Accumulation/distribution (a,b,c,d,e) of the 6000 charts in IBD but it seems to be holding up well if you look back a few months to july of 98 it is about the same for the A & B portion is now at about 63% of the group with only 5% in the E category. The % in the A+B group didont start dropping until May 98. It went from 65 in may to 54% in june ane 45% in july from there it was all down hill. However someone listed a site showing a different take. I wish he would list that site again so I could follow it. For now I am not fearful just aware. How do the others out there feel. John ADair Charles Cangialosi wrote: > Thanks for the replies on the NASDAQ. I re-read M in HTMMIS last night. I > was hit by his comment about not trying to predict the market, oddly enough > it was mentioned when I read the list this morning. > I sold INTC yesterday, I had a big gain. My reason, when I saw the NASDAQ > turn yesterday afternoon. I was thinking that I was really going to go down > so I locked in my profit. Possibly a stupid move. I am almost all in cash > right now, which is also probably a stupid move. > I wont have time to look at things till later today. Maybe I can buy > something. > > Charlie > > - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "John Adair, M.D." Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] M Date: 09 Dec 1998 12:56:26 -0600 I am not sure how much weight to put on the Accumulation/distribution (a,b,c,d,e) of the 6000 charts in IBD but it seems to be holding up well if you look back a few months to july of 98 it is about the same for the A & B portion is now at about 63% of the group with only 5% in the E category. The % in the A+B group didont start dropping until May 98. It went from 65 in may to 54% in june ane 45% in july from there it was all down hill. However someone listed a site showing a different take. I wish he would list that site again so I could follow it. For now I am not fearful just aware. How do the others out there feel. John ADair Charles Cangialosi wrote: > Thanks for the replies on the NASDAQ. I re-read M in HTMMIS last night. I > was hit by his comment about not trying to predict the market, oddly enough > it was mentioned when I read the list this morning. > I sold INTC yesterday, I had a big gain. My reason, when I saw the NASDAQ > turn yesterday afternoon. I was thinking that I was really going to go down > so I locked in my profit. Possibly a stupid move. I am almost all in cash > right now, which is also probably a stupid move. > I wont have time to look at things till later today. Maybe I can buy > something. > > Charlie > > - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Walter Stock Subject: [CANSLIM] Applying classic Elder to current Canslim "M" Date: 09 Dec 1998 15:44:13 -0500 When trying to decipher "M", I concentrate on three things (ok, ok, I admit I pay attention to lots of economic "noise" too). Anyway the three are: 1) WON's follow-through and distribution signals according to HTMMIS and his IBD series. 2) Market psychology (see IBD Thursday editions for sentiment indicators). 3) Dr. Alexander Elder's Triple Screen If you are using triple screen with the S&P 500 or Nasdaq indices this year, you are making substantial money. Go to Bigcharts and pull up a Nasdaq chart using the following parameters: Symbol: Nasdaq Time: 1 year Frequency: Weekly Lower indicator: MACD Leave the rest of the fields blank. Remember that these are the correct settings for an intermediate-term Canslim-style trader. Following this first screen alone, and looking for initial MACD-histogram upticks for entry into the market, this would have been your "M" schedule for the year: In: Last week of December 97 Out: 1st week April 98 In: 3rd week June Out: 3rd week July In: 2nd week Sept Out: 4th week Sept In: 2nd week October We are still in today and will exit with the first downtick in the MACD-histogram. More cautious triple-screeners will already be taking profits and exiting weaker stocks. ( I have already cut back to 30% invested.) I don't think you ask for much better "M" results for this year. Then again, Elder's approach works best in the kind of trending markets we have been in. (So don't fall in love with just one bloody indicator.) Newbies interested in applying this to individual stocks should look up my series from last spring in the archives (especially the applications using KEA and other stocks). The full triple screen is applied there in some detail. Hope this helps, Walter Stock Oakville, ON, Canada - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "John Adair, M.D." Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Applying classic Elder to current Canslim "M" Date: 09 Dec 1998 20:27:12 -0600 Sounds good. can you tell me how to get into the archives for a year ago. John Adair Walter Stock wrote: > When trying to decipher "M", I concentrate on three > things (ok, ok, I admit I pay attention to lots > of economic "noise" too). > > Anyway the three are: > 1) WON's follow-through and distribution signals > according to HTMMIS and his IBD series. > 2) Market psychology (see IBD Thursday editions > for sentiment indicators). > 3) Dr. Alexander Elder's Triple Screen > > If you are using triple screen with the S&P 500 or > Nasdaq indices this year, you are making substantial money. > > Go to Bigcharts and pull up a Nasdaq chart using > the following parameters: > > Symbol: Nasdaq > Time: 1 year > Frequency: Weekly > Lower indicator: MACD > Leave the rest of the fields blank. > > Remember that these are the correct settings for an > intermediate-term Canslim-style trader. > > Following this first screen alone, and looking for initial > MACD-histogram upticks for entry into the market, > this would have been your "M" schedule for the year: > > In: Last week of December 97 > Out: 1st week April 98 > > In: 3rd week June > Out: 3rd week July > > In: 2nd week Sept > Out: 4th week Sept > > In: 2nd week October > We are still in today and will exit with the first downtick > in the MACD-histogram. More cautious triple-screeners > will already be taking profits and exiting weaker stocks. > ( I have already cut back to 30% invested.) > > I don't think you ask for much better "M" results for > this year. Then again, Elder's approach works best in > the kind of trending markets we have been in. > (So don't fall in love with just one bloody indicator.) > > Newbies interested in applying this to individual stocks > should look up my series from last spring in the archives > (especially the applications using KEA and other stocks). > The full triple screen is applied there in some detail. > > Hope this helps, > > Walter Stock > Oakville, ON, Canada > > - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: rolatzi Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Applying classic Elder to current Canslim "M" Date: 10 Dec 1998 11:41:52 +0800 (SGT) Walter, I am using qp2 and running a scan to help me keep track of the market. Just hours before your posting I began to work on a scan to determine the MACD histogram for each of the indices that I use. I will do daily updates but want to use the MACD parameters which are appropriate for the weekly MACD. I need help in determining the correct parameters. For the moment I am using 5*5, 35*5 and 4*5 but I don't know if they are optimal. I started to look through Elder's book but didn't find the parameters. Any help from you would be appreciated. Thanks, Rolatzi ---Walter Stock wrote: > > When trying to decipher "M", I concentrate on three > things (ok, ok, I admit I pay attention to lots > of economic "noise" too). > > Anyway the three are: > 1) WON's follow-through and distribution signals > according to HTMMIS and his IBD series. > 2) Market psychology (see IBD Thursday editions > for sentiment indicators). > 3) Dr. Alexander Elder's Triple Screen > > If you are using triple screen with the S&P 500 or > Nasdaq indices this year, you are making substantial money. > > Go to Bigcharts and pull up a Nasdaq chart using > the following parameters: > > Symbol: Nasdaq > Time: 1 year > Frequency: Weekly > Lower indicator: MACD > Leave the rest of the fields blank. > > Remember that these are the correct settings for an > intermediate-term Canslim-style trader. > > Following this first screen alone, and looking for initial > MACD-histogram upticks for entry into the market, > this would have been your "M" schedule for the year: > > In: Last week of December 97 > Out: 1st week April 98 > > In: 3rd week June > Out: 3rd week July > > In: 2nd week Sept > Out: 4th week Sept > > In: 2nd week October > We are still in today and will exit with the first downtick > in the MACD-histogram. More cautious triple-screeners > will already be taking profits and exiting weaker stocks. > ( I have already cut back to 30% invested.) > > I don't think you ask for much better "M" results for > this year. Then again, Elder's approach works best in > the kind of trending markets we have been in. > (So don't fall in love with just one bloody indicator.) > > Newbies interested in applying this to individual stocks > should look up my series from last spring in the archives > (especially the applications using KEA and other stocks). > The full triple screen is applied there in some detail. > > Hope this helps, > > Walter Stock > Oakville, ON, Canada > > > > > > > > > > > > - > > _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: mikelu Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Applying classic Elder to current Canslim "M" Date: 09 Dec 1998 20:31:52 -0800 From the Equis website: MACD Histogram rev. 03/18/98 These two formulas are for the Dr. Alexander Elder indicators. The custom formula for the MACD Histogram is: ( Mov( C,12,E ) - Mov( C,26,E ) ) - Mov( ( Mov( C,12,E ) - Mov( C,26,E ) ),9,E ) The custom formula for the Weekly MACD Histogram utilizing daily data is: Mov(If(DayOfWeek()=5,C,Peak(1,If(DayOfWeek()=5,C,0),1)),60,E)- Mov(If(DayOfWeek()=5,C,Peak(1,If(DayOfWeek()=5,C,0),1)),130,E)- Mov(Mov(If(DayOfWeek()=5,C,Peak(1,If(DayOfWeek()=5,C,0),1)),60,E)- Mov(If(DayOfWeek()=5,C,Peak(1,If(DayOfWeek()=5,C,0),1)),130,E),45,E) -----Original Message----- Sent: Wednesday, December 09, 1998 7:42 PM Walter, I am using qp2 and running a scan to help me keep track of the market. Just hours before your posting I began to work on a scan to determine the MACD histogram for each of the indices that I use. I will do daily updates but want to use the MACD parameters which are appropriate for the weekly MACD. I need help in determining the correct parameters. For the moment I am using 5*5, 35*5 and 4*5 but I don't know if they are optimal. I started to look through Elder's book but didn't find the parameters. Any help from you would be appreciated. Thanks, Rolatzi ---Walter Stock wrote: > > When trying to decipher "M", I concentrate on three > things (ok, ok, I admit I pay attention to lots > of economic "noise" too). > > Anyway the three are: > 1) WON's follow-through and distribution signals > according to HTMMIS and his IBD series. > 2) Market psychology (see IBD Thursday editions > for sentiment indicators). > 3) Dr. Alexander Elder's Triple Screen > > If you are using triple screen with the S&P 500 or > Nasdaq indices this year, you are making substantial money. > > Go to Bigcharts and pull up a Nasdaq chart using > the following parameters: > > Symbol: Nasdaq > Time: 1 year > Frequency: Weekly > Lower indicator: MACD > Leave the rest of the fields blank. > > Remember that these are the correct settings for an > intermediate-term Canslim-style trader. > > Following this first screen alone, and looking for initial > MACD-histogram upticks for entry into the market, > this would have been your "M" schedule for the year: > > In: Last week of December 97 > Out: 1st week April 98 > > In: 3rd week June > Out: 3rd week July > > In: 2nd week Sept > Out: 4th week Sept > > In: 2nd week October > We are still in today and will exit with the first downtick > in the MACD-histogram. More cautious triple-screeners > will already be taking profits and exiting weaker stocks. > ( I have already cut back to 30% invested.) > > I don't think you ask for much better "M" results for > this year. Then again, Elder's approach works best in > the kind of trending markets we have been in. > (So don't fall in love with just one bloody indicator.) > > Newbies interested in applying this to individual stocks > should look up my series from last spring in the archives > (especially the applications using KEA and other stocks). > The full triple screen is applied there in some detail. > > Hope this helps, > > Walter Stock > Oakville, ON, Canada > > > > > > > > > > > > - > > _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Frank V. Wolynski" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Applying classic Elder to current Canslim "M" Date: 09 Dec 1998 23:55:30 -0500 Is my memory failing or doesn't Dr. Elder use the NYSE for the MACD oscillator Market timing signal? (Not trying to imply that it is therefore better, just striving for accuracy.) Regards, Frank Wolynski At 15:44 12/9/98 -0500, you wrote: >When trying to decipher "M", I concentrate on three >things (ok, ok, I admit I pay attention to lots >of economic "noise" too). > >Anyway the three are: >1) WON's follow-through and distribution signals >according to HTMMIS and his IBD series. >2) Market psychology (see IBD Thursday editions >for sentiment indicators). >3) Dr. Alexander Elder's Triple Screen > >If you are using triple screen with the S&P 500 or >Nasdaq indices this year, you are making substantial money. > >Go to Bigcharts and pull up a Nasdaq chart using >the following parameters: > >Symbol: Nasdaq >Time: 1 year >Frequency: Weekly >Lower indicator: MACD >Leave the rest of the fields blank. > >Remember that these are the correct settings for an >intermediate-term Canslim-style trader. > >Following this first screen alone, and looking for initial >MACD-histogram upticks for entry into the market, >this would have been your "M" schedule for the year: > >In: Last week of December 97 >Out: 1st week April 98 > >In: 3rd week June >Out: 3rd week July > >In: 2nd week Sept >Out: 4th week Sept > >In: 2nd week October >We are still in today and will exit with the first downtick >in the MACD-histogram. More cautious triple-screeners >will already be taking profits and exiting weaker stocks. >( I have already cut back to 30% invested.) > >I don't think you ask for much better "M" results for >this year. Then again, Elder's approach works best in >the kind of trending markets we have been in. >(So don't fall in love with just one bloody indicator.) > >Newbies interested in applying this to individual stocks >should look up my series from last spring in the archives >(especially the applications using KEA and other stocks). >The full triple screen is applied there in some detail. > >Hope this helps, > >Walter Stock >Oakville, ON, Canada > > > > > > > > > > > >- > > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Frank V. Wolynski" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Applying classic Elder to current Canslim "M" Date: 10 Dec 1998 00:01:54 -0500 I forgot to mention it, but the MACD histogram for the NYSE has ticked down. Two weeks in a row. The SPX has had 1 downtick. The RUT still upticking. DJ Industrials two weeks of downticks. TRAN upticking still. UTIL, downticks for almost 2 months. Regards, Frank Wolynski At 15:44 12/9/98 -0500, you wrote: >When trying to decipher "M", I concentrate on three >things (ok, ok, I admit I pay attention to lots >of economic "noise" too). > >Anyway the three are: >1) WON's follow-through and distribution signals >according to HTMMIS and his IBD series. >2) Market psychology (see IBD Thursday editions >for sentiment indicators). >3) Dr. Alexander Elder's Triple Screen > >If you are using triple screen with the S&P 500 or >Nasdaq indices this year, you are making substantial money. > >Go to Bigcharts and pull up a Nasdaq chart using >the following parameters: > >Symbol: Nasdaq >Time: 1 year >Frequency: Weekly >Lower indicator: MACD >Leave the rest of the fields blank. > >Remember that these are the correct settings for an >intermediate-term Canslim-style trader. > >Following this first screen alone, and looking for initial >MACD-histogram upticks for entry into the market, >this would have been your "M" schedule for the year: > >In: Last week of December 97 >Out: 1st week April 98 > >In: 3rd week June >Out: 3rd week July > >In: 2nd week Sept >Out: 4th week Sept > >In: 2nd week October >We are still in today and will exit with the first downtick >in the MACD-histogram. More cautious triple-screeners >will already be taking profits and exiting weaker stocks. >( I have already cut back to 30% invested.) > >I don't think you ask for much better "M" results for >this year. Then again, Elder's approach works best in >the kind of trending markets we have been in. >(So don't fall in love with just one bloody indicator.) > >Newbies interested in applying this to individual stocks >should look up my series from last spring in the archives >(especially the applications using KEA and other stocks). >The full triple screen is applied there in some detail. > >Hope this helps, > >Walter Stock >Oakville, ON, Canada > > > > > > > > > > > >- > > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] Late day rally in Europe Date: 10 Dec 1998 08:08:14 -0500 Looks like most of the European markets are staging a decent rally late in their day. Nasdaq looks determined to open down, but not by much. Maybe this will bring some life back to NYSE, and a minor down opening on Naz with a rally later on could be beneficial if we get some volume. Anyone else besides me concerned over the low total nr of new daily highs, esp on Naz with it once again hitting a new high yesterday? This far into a rally, these totals are pathetic! Tom W - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: mckeener@ix.netcom.com Subject: [CANSLIM] Fw: Bill Gates Buys Out Santa Date: 10 Dec 1998 07:37:42 -0600 (CST) Tom, Lovely, thanks. Mary - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: mckeener@ix.netcom.com Subject: [CANSLIM] M Date: 10 Dec 1998 07:48:44 -0600 (CST) Hi Charlie, Making a profit is never stupid. Being cautious is good, much better than losing profits, and even better than losing your own investment. Mary - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: mckeener@ix.netcom.com Subject: [CANSLIM] security sector article Date: 10 Dec 1998 08:04:04 -0600 (CST) Db, <> - --Db Perhaps we could reference our messages, NON-CANSLIM, when applicable. Since this board is named CANSLIM, I assume that's the focus members want to concentrate on, otherwise, I see loads of message boards that discuss all methods and strategies of investing. For me, that's what makes this board unique and attractive. Mary - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Walter Stock Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Applying classic Elder to current Canslim "M" Date: 10 Dec 1998 12:29:00 -0500 Hi Frank, Dr. Elder applies the MACD-histogram indicator to quite a variety of markets, and even commodities. Another of his applications is to apply his indicator to other indicators! Specifically he applies MACD- histogram to indicators like New High-New Low Index and the TRIN (trader's index aka ARMS index). Lots of applications are detailed in the Study Guide to his book "Trading for a Living". I highly recommend both works. Happy trading, Walter Frank V. Wolynski wrote: > Is my memory failing or doesn't Dr. Elder use the NYSE for the MACD > oscillator Market timing signal? > (Not trying to imply that it is therefore better, just striving for > accuracy.) > > Regards, > Frank Wolynski > > At 15:44 12/9/98 -0500, you wrote: > >When trying to decipher "M", I concentrate on three > >things (ok, ok, I admit I pay attention to lots > >of economic "noise" too). > > > >Anyway the three are: > >1) WON's follow-through and distribution signals > >according to HTMMIS and his IBD series. > >2) Market psychology (see IBD Thursday editions > >for sentiment indicators). > >3) Dr. Alexander Elder's Triple Screen > > > >If you are using triple screen with the S&P 500 or > >Nasdaq indices this year, you are making substantial money. > > > >Go to Bigcharts and pull up a Nasdaq chart using > >the following parameters: > > > >Symbol: Nasdaq > >Time: 1 year > >Frequency: Weekly > >Lower indicator: MACD > >Leave the rest of the fields blank. > > > >Remember that these are the correct settings for an > >intermediate-term Canslim-style trader. > > > >Following this first screen alone, and looking for initial > >MACD-histogram upticks for entry into the market, > >this would have been your "M" schedule for the year: > > > >In: Last week of December 97 > >Out: 1st week April 98 > > > >In: 3rd week June > >Out: 3rd week July > > > >In: 2nd week Sept > >Out: 4th week Sept > > > >In: 2nd week October > >We are still in today and will exit with the first downtick > >in the MACD-histogram. More cautious triple-screeners > >will already be taking profits and exiting weaker stocks. > >( I have already cut back to 30% invested.) > > > >I don't think you ask for much better "M" results for > >this year. Then again, Elder's approach works best in > >the kind of trending markets we have been in. > >(So don't fall in love with just one bloody indicator.) > > > >Newbies interested in applying this to individual stocks > >should look up my series from last spring in the archives > >(especially the applications using KEA and other stocks). > >The full triple screen is applied there in some detail. > > > >Hope this helps, > > > >Walter Stock > >Oakville, ON, Canada > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > >- > > > > > > - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: dbphoenix Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Applying classic Elder to current Canslim "M" Date: 11 Dec 1998 06:38:28 +1100 (EST) <> This is an interesting comparison, Walter. At the time we were discussing all this last Spring, I explained the triple screen that I use. It would have given similar signals, except that it would have put you in in late January, out the third week of April, in and out in June and July at the same time as yours, and not back in again until the third week in October. We haven't talked about MACD and stochastics of various speeds for months. Perhaps it's a subject worth revisiting. --Db == "Lessons are repeated until they are learned." http://home.talkcity.com/MoneySt/dbphoenix/ _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: dbphoenix Subject: [CANSLIM] Sperandeo's 2b Date: 11 Dec 1998 08:38:55 +0800 (SGT) We haven't talked much about Sperandeo's 2b rule, but it's being violated all over the place in all the indices, and it does makes a nice partner to O'N's distribution days. It shouldn't come as a surprise to anyone that the upward trend has been broken and that we have been in a sideways movement for three weeks in all the indices but the Naz. However, today marks the second time in nine days that an attempt to continue the uptrend in the Naz has failed (and two more of my stocks were stopped out today, though with good profits behind them). A change in trend to the downside won't be confirmed until we break below 1850, but whether the individual wants to ride the price down to that level or stop himself out before that point is a matter of choice. This is not to say that the trend channel from 1850 to 2050 should have anything to do with one's strategy, but it's helpful to know that the channel exists. --Db == "Lessons are repeated until they are learned." http://home.talkcity.com/MoneySt/dbphoenix/ _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Krukever Subject: [CANSLIM] mailing lists.- Date: 11 Dec 1998 00:07:18 -0300 Are you subscribed to other lists about stocks besides this? Please, if this is afirmative let me know. SALUDOS, DIEGO KRUKEVER.- - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Krukever Subject: [CANSLIM] cmvt+seek Date: 11 Dec 1998 00:12:12 -0300 CMVT is doing well, 4.56% up and increasing volume. Finally seems to= breakout. I was stopped twice in seek, first up and then down, i=B4m out but with a little profit, i cannot figure what=B4s happening there because it=B4s too volatile and there is a lot of volume on it =BFis it a breakout? SALUDOS, DIEGO KRUKEVER.- - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Krukever Subject: [CANSLIM] Bad day. Date: 11 Dec 1998 00:12:38 -0300 TIP: Hold your winners sell your losers. The problem in this kind of days is to identify the winners. SALUDOS, DIEGO KRUKEVER.- - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: FBNAirPlt@aol.com Subject: [CANSLIM] ACC/Dis Numbers Date: 10 Dec 1998 22:08:20 EST Here are the latest Acc/Dis Numbers: date A B C D E a+b/a-e %e 62-75% <4% Ideal Range 11/30/98 1368 3074 1226 804 256 66% 4% 12/1/98 1413 3049 1240 789 256 66% 4% 12/2/98 1276 3063 1283 838 274 64% 4% 12/3/98 1252 3050 1295 823 290 64% 4% 12/4/98 1239 3035 1256 848 318 64% 5% 12/7/98 1185 2994 1278 881 345 63% 5% 12/8/98 1212 3023 1250 871 330 63% 5% 12/9/98 1241 2983 1260 874 323 63% 5% 12/10/98 1213 2978 1279 884 329 63% 5% Spreedsheet Numbers date,A,B,C,D,E,a+b/a-e,%e, ,,,,,,62-75%,<4%,Ideal Range 11/30/98,1368,3074,1226,804,256,66%,4% 12/1/98,1413,3049,1240,789,256,66%,4% 12/2/98,1276,3063,1283,838,274,64%,4% 12/3/98,1252,3050,1295,823,290,64%,4% 12/4/98,1239,3035,1256,848,318,64%,5% 12/7/98,1185,2994,1278,881,345,63%,5% 12/8/98,1212,3023,1250,871,330,63%,5% 12/9/98,1241,2983,1260,874,323,63%,5% 12/10/98,1213,2978,1279,884,329,63%,5% Robert - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] cmvt+seek Date: 10 Dec 1998 22:43:03 -0500 Diego, Having helped birth CMVT many years ago, as well as holding its hand through two additional rounds of financing, I am certainly pleased to see how it has survived and flourished. Just wish I'd held onto some of my early stock. As for SEEK, with an EPS of 49, it fails one of the most basic tests of being a viable CANSLIM candidate. Simply put, with no earnings, it is trading on speculation of some future performance in terms of market share, increased sales, eventual profitability, momentum, etc as is the case with most of the internet stocks. As such, it is particularly vulnerable (in the absence of actual earnings) to the give and take momentum of the dotcom community. May be a nice situation for a day trader with the time to watch it, but hardly CANSLIM. And certainly not helped by Netscape's recent insistence on a 20% increase in payments for the Netscape generated traffic it receives (can we say "inflationary"??). Tom W -----Original Message----- Cc: upupandaway@shango.com CMVT is doing well, 4.56% up and increasing volume. Finally seems to breakout. I was stopped twice in seek, first up and then down, i=B4m out but with a little profit, i cannot figure what=B4s happening there because it=B4s to= o volatile and there is a lot of volume on it =BFis it a breakout? SALUDOS, DIEGO KRUKEVER.- - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] Asian market; more noise on "M" Date: 10 Dec 1998 23:41:46 -0500 Could be an interesting day tomorrow. Japan currently getting hammered, down another 2.3%, as the futures on the Nikkei mature. Looks like more selling pressure than the traders were expecting, and dragging down some of the other important Asian markets with it. With today's continued decline in commodities pricing, esp oil hitting a new 11 year low, regional and even worldwide economic problems seems to be a greater influence than the fear of inflation, and rightly so. Also rumors of another major hedge fund in trouble, will AG bail them out also?? Even the Bank of England's rate cut isn't helping, more of a relief rally that they didn't cut even more!! Maybe we're finally going to get the correction/consolidation we need so badly if we are to finally figure out whether we're in the midst of a bullish rally in a bear mkt; or the start of a new bull mkt on the beginnings of a new economic surge?? Tom W - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Craig A. Griffin" Subject: [CANSLIM] (OFF SUBJECT) Quotes Plus Index Data Errors Date: 10 Dec 1998 23:48:00 -0500 Occasionally, on a day like today, QP will be missing or in error on the open, high, low, or close of an index. Today, the open price was missing for the NASDAQ. It was also missing on Yahoo, so I guess they get their data from the same place. Tomorrow, they will correct it, but until then - if you want to update tonight's data, you need to get it somewhere. A good place to get this info for a single date on the web is at Metastock. Their Java charts display the data when you point at a date bar on the chart. Unfortunately, no volume on the NASDAQ chart (although there may be a separate symbol for it). Here is the URL for Metastock --> http://www.equis.com/java/ - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Patrick Wahl" Subject: [CANSLIM] misc stuff Date: 10 Dec 1998 22:02:13 -0800 Someone from this list needs to get into the WSJ dart throwing contest and let the rest of us know a day ahead of time what stock they will be recommending. Someone mentioned Craftmade (CRFT) today in the WSJ, it was up substantially, after breaking out yesterday (hmm, think anyone else got wind of this one day early?). Anyone have an opinion on Mastech (MAST)? Looks pretty good, has nice high EPS and RS numbers, and 3 A's in the IBD. Chart also looks pretty good. Sometimes new people to canslim don't know what a C&H looks like. If anyone want to see a textbook cup and handle, take a look at the chart of Worldcom (WCOM). Formed Cup from July to Nov 4 it looks like, then a 10 day handle, then a breakout to new highs. - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Patrick Wahl" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] M Date: 10 Dec 1998 22:10:30 -0800 Date sent: Thu, 10 Dec 1998 07:48:44 -0600 (CST) > Making a profit is never stupid. Being cautious > is good, much better than losing profits, and even > better than losing your own investment. Do you mean taking a profit? I don't agree that taking a profit is never stupid. I am not critquing this particular sale of INTC, I haven't watched it lately, but it is possible to be too quick to take a profit, to not make as much as you should have. Every now and then you need to get that big gainer and getting scared out of a stock every time the market hiccups assures you of keeping your profits small. Its pretty annoying when you buy the right stock and don't make as much as you should (I ought to know about that one). - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: dbphoenix Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] misc stuff Date: 11 Dec 1998 21:55:24 +0800 (SGT) <> Are you sure you don't mean a W pattern, Patrick? Though perhaps you have something else in mind. As far as MAST goes, the battle doesn't seem to have quieted down much. You could easily see another test of the 200 (notice there wasn't a whole lot of selling pressure that day). I'd rather see a tighter daily range, less volume, and a longer base, but if wishes were pennies . . . This one's also a W, though it's easier to see on a weekly chart. --Db == "Lessons are repeated until they are learned." http://home.talkcity.com/MoneySt/dbphoenix/ _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: mckeener@ix.netcom.com Subject: [CANSLIM] Late day rally in Europe Date: 11 Dec 1998 08:20:46 -0600 (CST) Tom, Since October 9th (the first day of the rally), the highest number of new highs on the NASDAQ was 120 on 11/30. With the exception of 11/23, new highs stayed below 100. Technology and a few other industries participated in the rally, but the lack of movers on a widespread basis leaves me unenthusiastic and skeptical about this bull market sustaining itself. We'll see, though. Mary - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: dbphoenix Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] misc stuff Date: 12 Dec 1998 00:53:13 +1100 (EST) <> Are you sure you don't mean a W pattern, Patrick? Though perhaps you have something else in mind. As far as MAST goes, the battle doesn't seem to have quieted down much. You could easily see another test of the 200 (notice there wasn't a whole lot of selling pressure that day). I'd rather see a tighter daily range, less volume, and a longer base, but if wishes were pennies . . . This one's also a W, though it's easier to see on a weekly chart. --Db == "Lessons are repeated until they are learned." http://home.talkcity.com/MoneySt/dbphoenix/ _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: David Reid Subject: Re: [CANSLIM]RFMD was misc stuff Date: 11 Dec 1998 09:47:25 -0800 If you folks read my post about RFMD last week, about it breaking out. Look at it today All I can say about this stock is WOW. dbphoenix wrote: > < like. If anyone want to see a textbook cup and handle, take a look > at the chart of Worldcom (WCOM). Formed Cup from July to Nov 4 > it looks like, then a 10 day handle, then a breakout to new highs.>> > > Are you sure you don't mean a W pattern, Patrick? Though perhaps you > have something else in mind. > > As far as MAST goes, the battle doesn't seem to have quieted down > much. You could easily see another test of the 200 (notice there > wasn't a whole lot of selling pressure that day). I'd rather see a > tighter daily range, less volume, and a longer base, but if wishes > were pennies . . . This one's also a W, though it's easier to see on > a weekly chart. > > --Db > > == > > "Lessons are repeated until they are learned." > > http://home.talkcity.com/MoneySt/dbphoenix/ > > _________________________________________________________ > DO YOU YAHOO!? > Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com > > - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Tim Fisher Subject: [CANSLIM] C&H Date: 11 Dec 1998 08:24:12 -0800 HH is forming a C&H with the cup from 11/7 to 12/4 and the handle forming this week. It isn't as neat as C&H's Ive seen in a more stable market but with all these double bottoms and funnels lately there isn't much to use as an example. SYMX is in a messy one with the right side substantially lower than the left. Tim Fisher, 1995 President, Pacific Fishery Biologists Ore-ROCK-On Rockhounding Web Site PFB Information mailto:tim@OreRockOn.com WWW http://OreRockOn.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: dbphoenix Subject: Re: [CANSLIM]RFMD was misc stuff Date: 11 Dec 1998 07:21:13 -0800 (PST) <> Sorry, David. What does this have to do with my comments on MAST and WCOM? --Db == "Lessons are repeated until they are learned." http://home.talkcity.com/MoneySt/dbphoenix/ _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: David Reid Subject: Re: [CANSLIM]RFMD was misc stuff Date: 11 Dec 1998 11:44:56 -0800 I apologize for improper thread etiquette David dbphoenix wrote: > < Look at it today > All I can say about this stock is WOW.>> > > Sorry, David. What does this have to do with my comments on MAST and > WCOM? > > --Db > > == > > "Lessons are repeated until they are learned." > > http://home.talkcity.com/MoneySt/dbphoenix/ > > _________________________________________________________ > DO YOU YAHOO!? > Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com > > - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: TM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] C&H Date: 12 Dec 1998 04:20:19 +1100 (EST) I see what you mean about HH. So what is the buypoint 26 3/8? Is the ADV around 20,000 to maybe 30,000? Thanks. TM ---Tim Fisher wrote: > > HH is forming a C&H with the cup from 11/7 to 12/4 and the handle forming > this week. It isn't as neat as C&H's Ive seen in a more stable market but > with all these double bottoms and funnels lately there isn't much to use as > an example. SYMX is in a messy one with the right side substantially lower > than the left. > > > Tim Fisher, 1995 President, Pacific Fishery Biologists > Ore-ROCK-On Rockhounding Web Site > PFB Information > mailto:tim@OreRockOn.com > WWW http://OreRockOn.com > > - > > _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Tim Fisher Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] HH Date: 11 Dec 1998 10:47:30 -0800 I'd say a b/o to significantly above the 52-wk at 26-1/2 would be a buy signal if M is still cooperating. Looking at the chart that high was a false b/o which formed the left side of the cup, so I would need to see it close above that by a good bit on a 5% advance on 1.5x ADV, which Yahoo says is 44k. The vol in the handle is a little high - I'd rather see it drop off while the price tightens. Guess I didn't answer your question but buypoints mean little to me, I can't hit them without gambling since I want to see the price charge up through them before I buy. On 09:20 AM 12/11/98 , TM Said: > >I see what you mean about HH. So what is the buypoint 26 3/8? Is the >ADV around 20,000 to maybe 30,000? Thanks. TM > > > >---Tim Fisher wrote: >> >> HH is forming a C&H with the cup from 11/7 to 12/4 and the handle >forming >> this week. It isn't as neat as C&H's Ive seen in a more stable >market but >> with all these double bottoms and funnels lately there isn't much to >use as >> an example. SYMX is in a messy one with the right side substantially >lower >> than the left. >> Tim Fisher Ore-Rock-On and Pacific Fishery Biologists WWW Sites Tim@OreRockOn.com WWW: http://OreRockOn.com See naked fish and rocks! - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Walter Stock Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Applying classic Elder to current Canslim "M" Date: 11 Dec 1998 15:43:31 -0500 Hello Doctor, You can access the archives at the following address: http://www.xmission.com/~mcjathan/cgi/lwgate.cgi/CANSLIM/ My series from the spring is in there. I don't have the volume numbers available, but will try to dig out the information when I have some time. In the interim if you want to find them, look for keywords: "Elder" and "Triple Screen". One other note: If the MACD-histogram display is hard to read or ambiguous on the computer screen, readers should print out the Bigchart charts on hardcopy. I find them far clearer on paper. This applies to my example of the Nasdaq index chart. Happy trading, Walter. John Adair, M.D. wrote: > Sounds good. can you tell me how to get into the archives for a year > ago. > John Adair > > Walter Stock wrote: > > > When trying to decipher "M", I concentrate on three > > things (ok, ok, I admit I pay attention to lots > > of economic "noise" too). > > > > Anyway the three are: > > 1) WON's follow-through and distribution signals > > according to HTMMIS and his IBD series. > > 2) Market psychology (see IBD Thursday editions > > for sentiment indicators). > > 3) Dr. Alexander Elder's Triple Screen > > > > If you are using triple screen with the S&P 500 or > > Nasdaq indices this year, you are making substantial money. > > > > Go to Bigcharts and pull up a Nasdaq chart using > > the following parameters: > > > > Symbol: Nasdaq > > Time: 1 year > > Frequency: Weekly > > Lower indicator: MACD > > Leave the rest of the fields blank. > > > > Remember that these are the correct settings for an > > intermediate-term Canslim-style trader. > > > > Following this first screen alone, and looking for initial > > MACD-histogram upticks for entry into the market, > > this would have been your "M" schedule for the year: > > > > In: Last week of December 97 > > Out: 1st week April 98 > > > > In: 3rd week June > > Out: 3rd week July > > > > In: 2nd week Sept > > Out: 4th week Sept > > > > In: 2nd week October > > We are still in today and will exit with the first downtick > > in the MACD-histogram. More cautious triple-screeners > > will already be taking profits and exiting weaker stocks. > > ( I have already cut back to 30% invested.) > > > > I don't think you ask for much better "M" results for > > this year. Then again, Elder's approach works best in > > the kind of trending markets we have been in. > > (So don't fall in love with just one bloody indicator.) > > > > Newbies interested in applying this to individual stocks > > should look up my series from last spring in the archives > > (especially the applications using KEA and other stocks). > > The full triple screen is applied there in some detail. > > > > Hope this helps, > > > > Walter Stock > > Oakville, ON, Canada > > > > - > > - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: dbphoenix Subject: Re: [CANSLIM]RFMD was misc stuff Date: 12 Dec 1998 04:53:42 +1100 (EST) <> No problem. Perhaps you have your email preferences set for automatic quoting in replies. --Db == "Lessons are repeated until they are learned." http://home.talkcity.com/MoneySt/dbphoenix/ _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "John Adair, M.D." Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] mailing lists.- Date: 11 Dec 1998 15:46:48 -0600 yes I use the quotes plus page John Adair: > Are you subscribed to other lists about stocks besides this? > Please, if this is afirmative let me know. > > SALUDOS, > DIEGO KRUKEVER.- > > - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "John Adair, M.D." Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Late day rally in Europe Date: 11 Dec 1998 15:52:22 -0600 Please explain to me The difference in the difference in significance of the new high of the advance decline line and the accumulation distribution (abcde) found in the dow segment of the general market page of IBD. If you just look at the latter it is in good shape. John Adair mckeener@ix.netcom.com wrote: > Tom, > > the low total nr of new daily highs, > esp on Naz with it once again hitting > a new high yesterday? This far into a > rally, these totals are pathetic!> > > Since October 9th (the first day of the > rally), the highest number of new highs > on the NASDAQ was 120 on 11/30. With > the exception of 11/23, new highs stayed > below 100. Technology and a few other > industries participated in the rally, > but the lack of movers on a widespread > basis leaves me unenthusiastic and > skeptical about this bull market sustaining > itself. We'll see, though. > > Mary > > - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "John Adair, M.D." Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Late day rally in Europe Date: 11 Dec 1998 15:52:22 -0600 Please explain to me The difference in the difference in significance of the new high of the advance decline line and the accumulation distribution (abcde) found in the dow segment of the general market page of IBD. If you just look at the latter it is in good shape. John Adair mckeener@ix.netcom.com wrote: > Tom, > > the low total nr of new daily highs, > esp on Naz with it once again hitting > a new high yesterday? This far into a > rally, these totals are pathetic!> > > Since October 9th (the first day of the > rally), the highest number of new highs > on the NASDAQ was 120 on 11/30. With > the exception of 11/23, new highs stayed > below 100. Technology and a few other > industries participated in the rally, > but the lack of movers on a widespread > basis leaves me unenthusiastic and > skeptical about this bull market sustaining > itself. We'll see, though. > > Mary > > - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "John Adair, M.D." Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] C&H of HH Date: 11 Dec 1998 16:04:02 -0600 I have never seen a more perfect C & H ( as of thursday eod data). Looking the chart on Get it is showing if it does breakout it will not be worthwhile. If it makes it to 27.61 it may go on up. This is my take on this stock (fwiw) John Adair TM wrote: > I see what you mean about HH. So what is the buypoint 26 3/8? Is the > ADV around 20,000 to maybe 30,000? Thanks. TM > > ---Tim Fisher wrote: > > > > HH is forming a C&H with the cup from 11/7 to 12/4 and the handle > forming > > this week. It isn't as neat as C&H's Ive seen in a more stable > market but > > with all these double bottoms and funnels lately there isn't much to > use as > > an example. SYMX is in a messy one with the right side substantially > lower > > than the left. > > > > > > Tim Fisher, 1995 President, Pacific Fishery Biologists > > Ore-ROCK-On Rockhounding Web Site > > PFB Information > > mailto:tim@OreRockOn.com > > WWW http://OreRockOn.com > > > > - > > > > > > _________________________________________________________ > DO YOU YAHOO!? > Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com > > - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Tim Fisher Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] C&H of HH Date: 11 Dec 1998 14:14:08 -0800 If you want to take the long view it is indeed a pretty but deep C&H going back to May and we are now in a 6 week handle. I really don't have a "handle" on the size these formations are supposed to take, but this is the second test of the all-time high set back then and maybe that's a good situation to be in. According to an article I just read the other day the second and third tests of a high have less and less selling pressure left and the breakout is that much stronger. John, why that price? Are you calculating a certain percentage over the 52-wk high? On 02:04 PM 12/11/98 , John Adair, M.D. Said: >I have never seen a more perfect C & H ( as of thursday eod data). Looking >the chart on Get it is showing if it does breakout it will not be >worthwhile. If it makes it to 27.61 it may go on up. This is my take on >this stock (fwiw) >John Adair > >TM wrote: > >> I see what you mean about HH. So what is the buypoint 26 3/8? Is the >> ADV around 20,000 to maybe 30,000? Thanks. TM >> >> ---Tim Fisher wrote: >> > >> > HH is forming a C&H with the cup from 11/7 to 12/4 and the handle >> forming >> > this week. It isn't as neat as C&H's Ive seen in a more stable >> market but >> > with all these double bottoms and funnels lately there isn't much to >> use as >> > an example. SYMX is in a messy one with the right side substantially >> lower >> > than the left. >> > Tim Fisher Ore-Rock-On and Pacific Fishery Biologists WWW Sites Tim@OreRockOn.com WWW: http://OreRockOn.com See naked fish and rocks! - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Late day rally in Europe Date: 11 Dec 1998 19:51:44 -0500 John, I didn't draw, nor would I, any parallels between these two measures. They are apples and oranges. My comment on the low nr of new highs simply refers to the expectation I have that a sustained rally such as this, which is now plowing new high territory as an index, should be showing much greater breadth if it is to be considered healthy. I would expect daily average new highs on both Nasdaq and NYSE to be routinely totalling over 200, and even pushing 300. Instead, only twice as Mary points out have they broken 100. Thus this is not only a big cap rally, it is extremely narrow in breadth and lacking sustainable support at this point. While accumulation/distribution may be looking good (and you may recall my comments on the fact that the 10 day ma of up volume on Naz was looking exceptionally positive several weeks ago), it is apparently not enough to drive large numbers of stocks to their own individual new highs. And now the up/down vol on NYSE has gone solidly bearish, while Naz is on the verge of following suit. Without the breadth of a rally, we are set up nicely for a correction. Tom W -----Original Message----- Cc: canslim@xmission.com Please explain to me The difference in the difference in significance of the new high of the advance decline line and the accumulation distribution (abcde) found in the dow segment of the general market page of IBD. If you just look at the latter it is in good shape. John Adair mckeener@ix.netcom.com wrote: > Tom, > > the low total nr of new daily highs, > esp on Naz with it once again hitting > a new high yesterday? This far into a > rally, these totals are pathetic!> > > Since October 9th (the first day of the > rally), the highest number of new highs > on the NASDAQ was 120 on 11/30. With > the exception of 11/23, new highs stayed > below 100. Technology and a few other > industries participated in the rally, > but the lack of movers on a widespread > basis leaves me unenthusiastic and > skeptical about this bull market sustaining > itself. We'll see, though. > > Mary > > - - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] Any commodities experts in the group?? Date: 11 Dec 1998 21:38:50 -0500 This is non CANSLIM, so please respond privately at stkguru@netside.net I am intrigued by some of the commodities contract prices right now. The time premium seems to be negligible to non-existent, In one case (palladium), the contracts actually get cheaper the further out you go. Would like some insight and understanding if you can help. Tom W - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] On Oils Date: 11 Dec 1998 21:53:10 -0500 Reading some comments that, despite the minor rally today in oils, the experts expect crude light - sweet to further test the all time low of $9.75 (it just this week broke the support at $11). It's not just oils, pretty much all the commodities are signaling lower prices to come, barring a sudden change in climate, at least. And this spells further trouble for the oil producing nations, in particular Latin America. Banks there are starting to fail, and we're not talking some minor ones, rather the top 2 or 3 in some countries. Even Gaddafi has called upon OPEC to cease totally all oil production for the winter in order to exhaust inventories and force prices higher. Doubtful anyone will listen to him, however. They all still need the cash flow even at these low prices. Tom W - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Walter Stock Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] On Oils Date: 11 Dec 1998 23:10:45 -0500 Hi Tom, Another way of checking how baskets of different commodities are doing (besides looking at the CRB and Goldman Sachs commodity indices) is to look at the performance of the principal Canadian exchange, the Toronto Stock Exchange (TSE). The TSE likes to think of itself as the premier natural-resource stock exchange in the world, and it probably is. Alone among the G-7 nations, Canada depends on its exports of commodities. In other words much of our economy is centered around oil, trees and rocks. Well oil, tree and rock stocks have been faring poorly for years, and the result is reflected in TSE performance which has lagged the US markets badly for more than a decade. The index to look at is the TSE 300 ( ^TSE on quote.yahoo.com). On the other hand if commodity prices were to reverse and move up strongly, then you would see the TSE start to outperform some of the US markets, as has happened in similar circumstances in the past. Walter Tom Worley wrote: > Reading some comments that, despite the minor rally today in oils, the > experts expect crude light - sweet to further test the all time low of > $9.75 (it just this week broke the support at $11). It's not just > oils, pretty much all the commodities are signaling lower prices to > come, barring a sudden change in climate, at least. And this spells > further trouble for the oil producing nations, in particular Latin > America. Banks there are starting to fail, and we're not talking some > minor ones, rather the top 2 or 3 in some countries. > > Even Gaddafi has called upon OPEC to cease totally all oil production > for the winter in order to exhaust inventories and force prices > higher. Doubtful anyone will listen to him, however. They all still > need the cash flow even at these low prices. > > Tom W > > - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Patrick Wahl" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] misc stuff Date: 11 Dec 1998 22:25:45 -0800 Date sent: Sat, 12 Dec 1998 00:53:13 +1100 (EST) > < like. If anyone want to see a textbook cup and handle, take a look > at the chart of Worldcom (WCOM). Formed Cup from July to Nov 4 > it looks like, then a 10 day handle, then a breakout to new highs.>> > > Are you sure you don't mean a W pattern, Patrick? Though perhaps you > have something else in mind. Nope, I meant a cup and handle, although perhaps my definition is a bit looser than yours (the beauty, or perhaps the problem, with chart interpretations). I did notice that it had a 2B type trade at the bottom, but looking at the chart of WCOM more broadly - it had a previous price runup from 30 or so up to 58 in July, declined to the mid 40's, roughly a 25% decline, returned to the old high in early November, met a small bit of selling pressure which led to a brief 10 day decline (the handle), then broke out of that formation to make new highs. Only thing missing might be high volume on the breakout, but as someone has pointed out, the large caps don't necessarily show the big volume increase on breakouts. That's my read on the chart, if yours is different, I'd like to hear it. - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: dbphoenix Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] misc stuff Date: 12 Dec 1998 06:48:25 -0800 (PST) <> It's not what I'd call a CWH since it fell to 40, rallied to 51 over a four-week period, then retested the lows at 39 before resuming an uptrend. I understand that to be a double-bottom pattern. --Db == "Lessons are repeated until they are learned." http://home.talkcity.com/MoneySt/dbphoenix/ _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "John Adair, M.D." Subject: [CANSLIM] Re: Fw: This could get expensive. Please read (noIW) Date: 12 Dec 1998 11:47:25 -0600 Arbuckle Drug & Alcohol Information Center wrote: > ---------- > > > > > > > > Please read the attached message and send your response to the listed > > website A.S.A.P. > > Date: Tue, 01 Dec 1998 12:21:40 -0500 > > CNN stated that the Government would in two weeks time decide to allow or > > not allow a Charge to your phone bill equal to a long distance call each > > time you access the internet. The address is: > > > > http://www.house.gov/writerep/ > > > > Please visit the address above and fill out the necessary form to your > > state representative! If EACH one of us, forward this message on to > > others > > in a hurry, we may be able to prevent this injustice from happening! > >John Adair > > > > > > > > ---------------------------------------------------------------------- > > 1. Need help? Contact the IrishWolfhound-H > > Administration Team at: WLFHOUND@WWONLINE.COM for assistance. All > > email sent through IRISHWOLFHOUND-H is Copyright 1998 by the original > author. > > Visit the Irish Wolfhound-H Web Site at > > http://www.netrover.com/~wolfie1/iwh/home.htm > > Read the archives at http://www.escribe.com/pets/iw/ > > User name=iw Password=iluviws > > > > ---------------------------------------------------------------------- > > > > ***** subscribe/unsubscribe to this list and subscribe to Top Irish > > Wolfhounds and The Irish Wolfhound Quarterly at http://www.hoflin.com > > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Johan Van Houtven Subject: [CANSLIM] 'M' Date: 12 Dec 1998 18:48:38 +0100 >Without the breadth of a rally, >we are set up nicely for a correction. We already are in a correction, IMHO. We have had more distribution days than WON deems necessary for a possible correction to occur. A minimum of 3 or 4 distribution days in a period of a few weeks is already enough to put you into 'a more alert' state to watch for rally failures. We've already seen two rally failures in the DOW. Johan - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "John Adair, M.D." Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] C&H of HH Date: 12 Dec 1998 12:00:03 -0600 Hi Tim The software program has a module caled MOB (Make or break). It is calculated based on fib numbers and makes a prediction that if an advance reaches the predicted point it has a 65/75 % of going higher. You cant bank on it but it is a good guideline. The MOB in this case is 27.61 John ADair Tim Fisher wrote: > If you want to take the long view it is indeed a pretty but deep C&H going back > to May and we are now in a 6 week handle. I really don't have a "handle" on > the size these formations are supposed to take, but this is the second test of > the all-time high set back then and maybe that's a good situation to be in. > According to an article I just read the other day the second and third tests of > a high have less and less selling pressure left and the breakout is that much > stronger. John, why that price? Are you calculating a certain percentage over > the 52-wk high? > > On 02:04 PM 12/11/98 , John Adair, M.D. Said: > >I have never seen a more perfect C & H ( as of thursday eod data). Looking > >the chart on Get it is showing if it does breakout it will not be > >worthwhile. If it makes it to 27.61 it may go on up. This is my take on > >this stock (fwiw) > >John Adair > > > >TM wrote: > > > >> I see what you mean about HH. So what is the buypoint 26 3/8? Is the > >> ADV around 20,000 to maybe 30,000? Thanks. TM > >> > >> ---Tim Fisher wrote: > >> > > >> > HH is forming a C&H with the cup from 11/7 to 12/4 and the handle > >> forming > >> > this week. It isn't as neat as C&H's Ive seen in a more stable > >> market but > >> > with all these double bottoms and funnels lately there isn't much to > >> use as > >> > an example. SYMX is in a messy one with the right side substantially > >> lower > >> > than the left. > >> > > > Tim Fisher > Ore-Rock-On and Pacific Fishery Biologists WWW Sites > > Tim@OreRockOn.com > WWW: http://OreRockOn.com > See naked fish and rocks! > > - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: dbphoenix Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] 'M' Date: 12 Dec 1998 10:06:35 -0800 (PST) <> Of course we are. That's why I made my Sperandeo post. From high to low, we're off 8% in the Dow, 4% in the NYSE and 3% in the Naz. Granted, 3 and 4% are not a big deal in and of themselves, but since they come from multiple rally failures, they're worth paying attention to. Plus nearly all the high RS group charts have rolled over or are in the process of doing so. --Db == "Lessons are repeated until they are learned." http://home.talkcity.com/MoneySt/dbphoenix/ _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Rich Ralph Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Any commodities experts in the group?? Date: 12 Dec 1998 12:43:37 -0500 At 09:38 PM 12/11/98 -0500, you wrote: >This is non CANSLIM, so please respond privately at >stkguru@netside.net > >I am intrigued by some of the commodities contract prices right now. >The time premium seems to be negligible to non-existent, In one case >(palladium), the contracts actually get cheaper the further out you >go. Would like some insight and understanding if you can help. > >Tom W Hi Tom, Did you get any replies to this post? If so, would you share them with me? I've been meaning to learn about commodities & futures, and any help will be appreciated. Best regards, Rich Ralph - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Rich Ralph Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Any commodities experts in the group?? Date: 12 Dec 1998 13:37:51 -0500 ...sorry. didn't mean to send that to the list. Rich Ralph - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: mckeener@ix.netcom.com Subject: [CANSLIM] M Date: 12 Dec 1998 13:32:55 -0600 (CST) Patrick, Yes, it is possible to be too quick in taking a profit. I do know and I've kicked myself a few times. Patrick, I do believe, though, that it's better to take a profit when your stock is up 15%-20% and it begins going down, than to sit and hope it doesn't hit your 8% stop. You can always buy it back if you're still a believer in it. Small profits are better than losses. Granted, the brokerage houses make money on frequent trades, but protection of profits (and reducing losses) are my primary goals. Also, I think it depends on the industry. For example, having an 8% stop loss in YHOO and MSPG forced me in and out of these stocks too often. Yet, if these stocks hadn't rebounded, then I would have been pleased with the profits. Whenever I profit from a trade (enough to take care of the commission and a $100 rise in my portfolio), I am happy, not elated, but happy. Does this make sense? Mary - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: mckeener@ix.netcom.com Subject: [CANSLIM] Late day rally in Europe Date: 12 Dec 1998 13:51:47 -0600 (CST) John, I was simply commenting on Tom's thoughts of the few number of stocks hitting new highs on the NASDAQ compared to the rally in that exchange. The health or lack of in the market depends on several factors: new highs/ new lows, advance/declines, distribution, volume, support and resistance levels, mutual fund index, Elder's triple screen and other indicators which appeal to investors. If more people are buying than selling, that's good for me as an intermediate-term investor in a bull market - A or B. If more are selling than buying in a bear market - D or E, that's good for me too if I'm short a trade. A change in distribution can be significant. It may mean the beginnings of a rally or a correction, a bull or bear market. Does this answer your question? Mary - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Joe Scott" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] M Date: 12 Dec 1998 15:43:13 -0500 Mary, Wouldn't that depend on how many 8% losses you might have, takes an awful lot of 100.00 profits to offset a few 8% losses? Even a trade as small as 100 shares of a 50.00 stock would cost you 400.00 if you took a 8% loss.. Thats four of those 100.00 "wins" not even counting commissions. I agree small profits are better than losses, but I think you have to hold winners long enough or you just churn your account for small gains and the benefit of your broker. Which I know I have done way too many times. Just some thoughts. joe "Its the sitting that makes the money", thats one I read every morning, taped to the monitor.. - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Tim Fisher Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Stops Date: 12 Dec 1998 13:22:07 -0800 Hence WON's never let a 20% profit turn into a loss rule. Using your example that $1000 profit offsets two bad trades and leaves $200 for profit. As a further cushion, figure both your buy and sell comissions into the 8% and 20% so you don't fail to account for those expenses. Then you only need one out of 3 to be a winner. That is still expecting pretty good picking skills, so you need to have some more than 20% winners in order to generate a decent rate of return. At 03:43 PM 12/12/98 -0500, you wrote: >Mary, > >Wouldn't that depend on how many 8% losses you might have, takes an awful >lot of 100.00 profits to offset a few 8% losses? >Even a trade as small as 100 shares of a 50.00 stock would cost you 400.00 >if you took a 8% loss.. Thats four of those 100.00 "wins" not even counting >commissions. > >I agree small profits are better than losses, but I think you have to hold >winners long enough or you just churn your account for small gains and the >benefit of your broker. Which I know I have done way too many times. >Just some thoughts. > >joe > >"Its the sitting that makes the money", >thats one I read every morning, >taped to the monitor.. > > > >- > Tim Fisher, 1995 President, Pacific Fishery Biologists Ore-ROCK-On Rockhounding Web Site PFB Information mailto:tim@OreRockOn.com WWW http://OreRockOn.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Tim Fisher Subject: [CANSLIM] Filter of Ron Russel's Dec list Date: 12 Dec 1998 14:07:19 -0800 Did a filter for EPS/RS 80/80, A/D = A or B, within 15% of high, ROE > 18%, insiders > 5%, and Debt/equity > 1, on Ron Russel's 12/6 list; came up with the following tickers, FWIW. Sorted in order of decreasing EPS/RS/GRS. CDWC MCRL LGTO MSFT PLXS THQI JKHY ASND INSS RMBS METZ WPI AVEI PAYX XLSW MAST ABDR ORBKF APCC POS BMET Tim Fisher, 1995 President, Pacific Fishery Biologists Ore-ROCK-On Rockhounding Web Site PFB Information mailto:tim@OreRockOn.com WWW http://OreRockOn.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "james sullivan" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] M Date: 12 Dec 1998 17:45:27 -0500 >"Its the sitting that makes the money", >thats one I read every morning, >taped to the monitor.. just taped it to my monitor, too.....thanks for the idea - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: JANSI1AUG1@aol.com Subject: [CANSLIM] Re. "Tech. Analysis of Stock and Commodities" Mag Date: 12 Dec 1998 19:48:28 EST Canslim Digest Subscribers and Db in particular: There is an edifying article ("Multiple Time Frame Trading ....") in this month's January issue of TASC. The reason I think Db in particular will be intrigued is that the author of the piece also uses more than one time frame in analyzing a stock. He uses, in effect, weekly prices to pinpoint trends and support/resistance areas;and he uses day prices for more accurate timing. TASC has a home site that, I believe, gives summaries of their articles. Its address is http://www.traders.com . Also, they have an interview this month with a technical maven. He mentions that some tech. tools (like odd lots and member shorts) are invalid in these times because individual investors are much more sophisticated. He discusses a new tool that appears seductively valid: using mutual fund inflows and outflows to equate with advances and declines. Thus, if the mutual fund rises, but there are more outflows generated than inflows, an advance/decline line of the inflows and outflows would show that divergence. What does anyone else think of this concept? Is it worth plugging to WON so that he'd graphically display mutual fund inflows/outflows under his IBD mutual fund graph? jans - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: dbphoenix Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Re. "Tech. Analysis of Stock and Commodities" Mag Date: 12 Dec 1998 18:15:04 -0800 (PST) <> You may find the following site interesting: http://www.amgdata.com/ --Db == "Lessons are repeated until they are learned." http://home.talkcity.com/MoneySt/dbphoenix/ _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Joe Scott" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Stops Date: 12 Dec 1998 21:19:49 -0500 Tim,, I don't understand what this has to do with my reply to Mary's post,, were you replying to me or Mary? I'm not sure where "my example of $1000 profit" you speak of comes from? joe >>>Hence WON's never let a 20% profit turn into a loss rule. Using your example that $1000 profit offsets two bad trades and leaves $200 for profit. As a further cushion, figure both your buy and sell comissions into the 8% and 20% so you don't fail to account for those expenses. Then you only need one out of 3 to be a winner. That is still expecting pretty good picking skills, so you need to have some more than 20% winners in order to generate a decent rate of return. At 03:43 PM 12/12/98 -0500, you wrote: >Mary, > >Wouldn't that depend on how many 8% losses you might have, takes an awful >lot of 100.00 profits to offset a few 8% losses? >Even a trade as small as 100 shares of a 50.00 stock would cost you 400.00 >if you took a 8% loss.. Thats four of those 100.00 "wins" not even counting >commissions. > >I agree small profits are better than losses, but I think you have to hold >winners long enough or you just churn your account for small gains and the >benefit of your broker. Which I know I have done way too many times. >Just some thoughts. > >joe > >"Its the sitting that makes the money", >thats one I read every morning, >taped to the monitor.. > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Jose Perez" Subject: [CANSLIM] CMED Date: 11 Dec 1998 16:56:43 PST Could someone fill me in on the numbers for CMED? rs/grs/adv and any other info. I am away from my homebase and don't have access to my database. Thanks, jose ______________________________________________________ Get Your Private, Free Email at http://www.hotmail.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Walter Stock Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] C&H of HH Date: 12 Dec 1998 22:39:37 -0500 This stock is developing a strong negative divergence between price and Money flow on the daily chart (from December 4th onwards). ...just something to consider and keep an eye on. Walter John Adair, M.D. wrote: > Hi Tim > The software program has a module caled MOB (Make or break). It is calculated based > on fib numbers and makes a prediction that if an advance reaches the predicted > point it has a 65/75 % of going higher. You cant bank on it but it is a good > guideline. The MOB in this case is 27.61 > John ADair > Tim Fisher wrote: > > > If you want to take the long view it is indeed a pretty but deep C&H going back > > to May and we are now in a 6 week handle. I really don't have a "handle" on > > the size these formations are supposed to take, but this is the second test of > > the all-time high set back then and maybe that's a good situation to be in. > > According to an article I just read the other day the second and third tests of > > a high have less and less selling pressure left and the breakout is that much > > stronger. John, why that price? Are you calculating a certain percentage over > > the 52-wk high? > > > > On 02:04 PM 12/11/98 , John Adair, M.D. Said: > > >I have never seen a more perfect C & H ( as of thursday eod data). Looking > > >the chart on Get it is showing if it does breakout it will not be > > >worthwhile. If it makes it to 27.61 it may go on up. This is my take on > > >this stock (fwiw) > > >John Adair > > > > > >TM wrote: > > > > > >> I see what you mean about HH. So what is the buypoint 26 3/8? Is the > > >> ADV around 20,000 to maybe 30,000? Thanks. TM > > >> > > >> ---Tim Fisher wrote: > > >> > > > >> > HH is forming a C&H with the cup from 11/7 to 12/4 and the handle > > >> forming > > >> > this week. It isn't as neat as C&H's Ive seen in a more stable > > >> market but > > >> > with all these double bottoms and funnels lately there isn't much to > > >> use as > > >> > an example. SYMX is in a messy one with the right side substantially > > >> lower > > >> > than the left. > > >> > > > > > Tim Fisher > > Ore-Rock-On and Pacific Fishery Biologists WWW Sites > > > > Tim@OreRockOn.com > > WWW: http://OreRockOn.com > > See naked fish and rocks! > > > > - > > - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Joe Scott" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] CMED Date: 12 Dec 1998 22:53:04 -0500 99 earnings .50 est. +35% 5 year growth 30% PE 24 EPS rank 97 A/D A Shares 10.7 4.9 Float dec.97 +33%,, Mar 98 +38%,, Jun 98 +33% Sep 98 +83% RS 91 Funds 0,,, Mgmt 54%,, debt 0,, Return on Equity 25% Group RS 83,, aver Daily Vol 102,000 EPS due 2/5 joe - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: FBNAirPlt@aol.com Subject: [CANSLIM] Acc/Dis & Cup & Handle program Date: 12 Dec 1998 23:19:08 EST Here are the latest Acc/Dis Numbers: Also at www.traders.com under traders tips there is programing language to search for C&H patterns using Tradestation/Supercharts, Technifilter plus, Smartrader. This is code for a story that ran in TA of Stocks & Commodities Magazine a couple of months ago. date A B C D E a+b/a-e %e 62-75% <4% 12/1/98 1413 3049 1240 789 256 66% 4% 12/2/98 1276 3063 1283 838 274 64% 4% 12/3/98 1252 3050 1295 823 290 64% 4% 12/4/98 1239 3035 1256 848 318 64% 5% 12/7/98 1185 2994 1278 881 345 63% 5% 12/8/98 1212 3023 1250 871 330 63% 5% 12/9/98 1241 2983 1260 874 323 63% 5% 12/10/98 1213 2978 1279 884 329 63% 5% 12/11/98 1204 2959 1279 858 341 63% 5% 12/14/98 1140 2914 1304 948 357 61% 5% Spreadsheet version: date,A,B,C,D,E,a+b/a-e,%e, ,,,,,,62-75%,<4%,Ideal Range 12/1/98,1413,3049,1240,789,256,66%,4% 12/2/98,1276,3063,1283,838,274,64%,4% 12/3/98,1252,3050,1295,823,290,64%,4% 12/4/98,1239,3035,1256,848,318,64%,5% 12/7/98,1185,2994,1278,881,345,63%,5% 12/8/98,1212,3023,1250,871,330,63%,5% 12/9/98,1241,2983,1260,874,323,63%,5% 12/10/98,1213,2978,1279,884,329,63%,5% 12/11/98,1204,2959,1279,858,341,63%,5% 12/14/98,1140,2914,1304,948,357,61%,5% FYI: the %ab's are edging below ideal range and %e is also above ideal. Robert - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] DGO's new highs Date: 13 Dec 1998 00:17:52 -0500 Total for the week is 281, of which 140 met the 80/80 rule: AGN, TK, WLP, WABC, PRGX, NCOG, LTEK, FOSL, NOKA, NTAP, ASND, SAH, AFL, NSIT, MHP, ABH, ECILF, NEG, TRK, AHL, PVN, GPS, CDWC, CREE, DNEX, BK, INOC, ARV, FLT, GILTF, CSGS, OTTR, MVSN, OCCF, CUBE, SLR, RGAA, TSIC, DL, THQI, BJICA, LOW, EAGL, VMC, CTL, FCBK, ABT, NLCS, RACN, RGA, BHW, ALTR, EMC, MMS, ITGI, CHTT, JWB, ALSI, PSEM, MRK, SANM, IMAXF, BMET, DHR, ELK, VTSS, CACS, BRL, GDXA, EXAC, MNMD, BOBJY, HD, PSDI, TLTN, WMT, GDT, RI, SDG, JWA, WAG, GENZ, SPLS, CAH, CRFT, TSFW, CTAS, ARMHY, AHO, FDS, CMVT, WCOM, AEG, SNPS, VCI RESM, BSYS, QTRN, KROG, CEFT, ACS, CLFY, LGTO, LEVL, CSCO, PMS, AEH, T, MYG, FIC, CHP, BDY, IPL, FPIC, USM, RGIS, PBI, ORCL, COST, PLCE, DY, HLYW, ESI, ANF, NSOL, RAIL, CPWR, EWB, EMPI, MSFT, SDLI, SWFT, AMSY, ABDR, SGP, CCRD, DORL, SWY, SBL. Of course, you must do your own homework, I'm not responsible for typos. Tom W - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: desmond michel Subject: [CANSLIM] Shareware programs Date: 13 Dec 1998 02:24:38 -0800 (PST) Dear All Can any1 advise me on freeware/shareware programs out there that I can use to track the markets. Thanz. _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: TM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Shareware programs Date: 13 Dec 1998 05:43:11 -0800 (PST) What do you think of Mach6.net? ---desmond michel wrote: > > Dear All > > > Can any1 advise me on freeware/shareware programs out there that I can > use to track the markets. Thanz. > _________________________________________________________ > DO YOU YAHOO!? > Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com > > > - > > _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Frank V. Wolynski" Subject: [CANSLIM] IBD Industry Groups - 4 Week Performance Date: 13 Dec 1998 13:01:43 -0500 4 Week Group Performance Tabulations: Best 4 Week Performance: 1Wk Percentage This Week Last Week Rank Group Gain IBD Ranking IBD Ranking 0000,8080,0000# 1 Computer Softwr-Internet 61.6 1 1 # 2 Retail-Consumer Elect 29.6 27 20 # 3 Media-Cable Tv 18.2 9 13 # 4 Computer Softwr-Security 14.3 25 29 # 5 Computer Softwr-Desktop 14.1 10 7 # 6 Elec-Semiconductor Mfg 13.9 2 2 # 7 Computer-Local Networks 13.4 5 6 # 8 Computer-Memory Devices 13.0 3 3 # 9 Comml Svcs-Linen Supply 12.6 51 73 #10 Computer Softwr-Med 12.3 52 95 Worst 4 Week Performance: 1Wk Percentage This Week Last Week Rank Group Gain IBD Ranking IBD Ranking ffff,0000,0000#188 Oil&Gas-Cdn Integrated - 8.8 168 162 #189 Metal Ores-Non Ferrous - 8.9 150 150 #190 Aerospace/Defense - 9.0 90 51 #191 Oil & Gas-US Royalty Tr - 9.2 176 176 #192 Oil&Gas-Cdn Exp&Prod -10.7 178 179 #193 Oil&Gas-Field Services -10.9 193 193 #194 Oil & Gas-Drilling -11.2 197 197 #195 Oil&Gas-Machinery/Equip -13.5 196 196 #196 Oil&Gas-US Explo&Prod -13.7 185 191 #197 Metal Ores-Gold/Silver -14.0 108 102 FWIW, Frank Wolynski - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Frank V. Wolynski" Subject: [CANSLIM] IBD Industry Groups - 1 Week Performance Date: 13 Dec 1998 13:01:35 -0500 1 Week Group Performance Tabulations: Best 1 Week Performance: 1Wk Percentage This Week Last Week Rank Group Gain IBD Ranking IBD Ranking 0000,8080,0000# 1 Computer Softwr-Internet 24.2 1 1 # 2 Media-Cable Tv 8.0 9 13 # 3 Computer Softwr-Security 7.6 25 29 # 4 Computer Softwr-Med 7.5 52 95 # 5 Retail-Major Disc Chains 5.3 68 81 # 6 Retail-Consumer Elect 4.4 27 20 # 7 Computer-Services 3.3 31 33 # 8 Media-Books 3.1 21 26 # 9 Oil&Gas-Intl Integrated 3.0 126 169 #10 Computer Softwr-Fin 2.8 45 60 Worst 1 Week Performance: 1Wk Percentage This Week Last Week Rank Group Gain IBD Ranking IBD Ranking ffff,0000,0000#188 Soap&Clng Preparatns - 4.3 54 43 #189 Banks-Super Regional - 4.8 83 58 #190 Aerospace/Defense - 5.0 90 51 #191 Medical-Generic Drugs - 5.0 24 19 #192 Beverages-Soft Drinks - 5.1 138 151 #193 Medical-Hospitals - 5.5 152 103 #194 Transportation-Airline - 5.7 177 158 #195 Banks-Money Center - 6.3 162 155 #196 Finance-Investment Mgmt - 9.7 139 156 #197 Computer-Optical Recogtn -10.5 91 84 FWIW, Frank Wolynski - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Patrick Wahl" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] M Date: 13 Dec 1998 11:57:04 -0800 Date sent: Sat, 12 Dec 1998 13:32:55 -0600 (CST) > Yes, it is possible to be too quick in taking a > profit. I do know and I've kicked myself a few > times. Patrick, I do believe, though, that it's > better to take a profit when your stock is up 15%-20% > and it begins going down, than to sit and hope it > doesn't hit your 8% stop. You can always buy it back Begins going down how much? That is always the hard part. I think if you only have a 15% profit, you almost have to keep a breakeven stop on things, not worry about exiting with a small profit. You also have to factor in other things - like, is the stock going down because the market is, or is it going down while the market is going up, is the volume heavy or light on the down days, what is the rest of the group doing. Also, what actually represents a trend reversal versus the usual random noise within an ongoing uptrend, what is the growth rate, what is the potential gain in a stock given a certain growth rate, how long did it take to acheive your 20% gain, etc. > if you're still a believer in it. Small profits are > better than losses. Granted, the brokerage houses make Sometimes its hard to time re-entries, and if you are still a believer in a stock, you should be willing to hold right down to the breakeven point, at least until you are up > 20%, then maybe think about protecting a small part of your profit. Regarding a $100 profit, at that point I figure that size profit does not help, I would rather risk that last little shred of profit in the hopes of a rebound in the stock than sell and end any possibility of making money in that stock. I think it is easy to get caught up in a stock chart itself, forgetting that there is a company with some fundamentals behind that chart, and if things are good, the stock price nearly has to work its way higher. I have held CPWR for about 9 months because I thought it was a solid company. If you want to see a scary ride, look at that chart over the last 9 months, but I did hold through the dips because I figured the price had to bounce back when market conditions improved. If I didn't know the company, which I don't for some of the stuff I buy, I would not have held through those dips. and I also, looking at the chart, don't really know where I would have felt comfortable rebuying the stock. I hope this is somewhat useful. PS - Remember the old Jesse Livermore quote about hope and fear and so on, that is, hoping your profit will turn into a larger one, fearing your loss will turn into a larger one. - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: mckeener@ix.netcom.com Subject: [CANSLIM] "M" and "Stops" Date: 13 Dec 1998 13:26:11 -0600 (CST) Joe and Tim, Joe Tim Yes, 8% losses quickly wipe out small profits. Learned that too. Good picking, buying at the right time and protecting extreme losses/decent profits in line with an individual's total investment will keep one's account in the "black". Still working on that. Mary - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: mckeener@ix.netcom.com Subject: [CANSLIM] "Tech. Analysis of Stock and Commodities" Mag Date: 13 Dec 1998 13:38:22 -0600 (CST) Wouldn't that be similar to looking at + and - volume for a particular day? If the mutual fund index is down but the + volume is up, that's a divergence worthy of attention. What do you think? Mary - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Joe Scott" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] M Date: 13 Dec 1998 16:13:29 -0500 Makes very good sense to me Patrick, I've had a wild ride in a few myself. Not that I would let them turn into losses. joe - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Jeffry White <"postwhit@sover.net"@sover.net> Subject: [CANSLIM] "Sitting..." Date: 13 Dec 1998 15:31:27 -0500 > joe > > "Its the sitting that makes the money", > thats one I read every morning, > taped to the monitor.. > > The quote is a bastardization of one from Livermore. It goes like this, and should be read in its entirety: "After spending many years in Wall Street and after making and losing millions of dollars I want to tell you this: It never was my thinking that made the big money for me. It was always my sitting. Got that? My sitting tight! It is no trick at all to be right on the market. You alway find lots of early bulls in bull markets and early bears in bear markets. I've known many men who were right at exactly the right time, and began buying or selling stocks when prices were at the very level which should show the greatest profit. And their experience invariably matched mine--that is, they made no real money out of it. Men who can both be right and sit tight are the uncommon. I found it one of the hardest things to learn. But it is only after a stock operator has firmly grasped this that he can make big money. It is literally true that millions come easiser to a trader after he knows how to trade than hundreds did in the days of his ignorance. "The reason is that a man may see straight and clearly and yet become impatient or doubtful when the market takes its time about doing as he figured it must do. That is why so many men in Wall Street, who are not at all in the sucker class, not even in the third grade, nevertheless lose money. The market does not beat them. They beat themselves, because though they have the brains they cannot sit tight." Reminiscence of a Stock Operator, pages 68-69, by Edward Lefevre http://franchise.fantasticshopping.com/traders-mainstore/detail.tam?oldpage%2Ectx=result%2Etam&item%2Ectx=9%2DS So, joe, here's to "sitting"...the hardest and most challenging part of the game. Thanks for posting, I needed to re-read this portion of Livermore. Most timely, for me at this moment. Jeffry - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "james sullivan" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Re. "Tech. Analysis of Stock and Commodities" Mag Date: 13 Dec 1998 18:03:37 -0500 >What does anyone else think of this concept? You asked for it ;^) >He >mentions that some tech. tools (like odd lots and member shorts) are >invalid in these times because individual investors are much more sophisticated. I believe individual investors(II's) have information and communication as never before, but the term "sophisticated" has me wondering. Today's II's may be more sophisticated, but the market _definitely_ is. Personally, sometimes I feel I have so much info, that I "my nerves get up" over buying, selling, holding, etc.; but 10, 20,or 50 years ago, wouldn't the LACK of info get "my nerves get up"? I guess, what I am inadequately trying to say is that, for me, it's the "apples and oranges" thing; but as far as the issue of being invalid, I believe most technical mavens are. >He discusses a new tool that appears seductively valid: using mutual fund >inflows and outflows to equate with advances and declines. Thus, if the >mutual fund rises, but there are more outflows generated than inflows, an >advance/decline line of the inflows and outflows would show that >divergence. I would probably find the tool more seductive if their cash positions were integrated. Please note that I have been wrong MANY times in the past. - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "John Adair, M.D." Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] bill to tax internet usage Date: 13 Dec 1998 21:20:46 -0600 Please read the attached message and send your response to the listed > website A.S.A.P. > Date: Tue, 01 Dec 1998 12:21:40 -0500 > CNN stated that the Government would in two weeks time decide to allow or > not allow a Charge to your phone bill equal to a long distance call each > time you access the internet. The address is: > > http://www.house.gov/writerep/ > > Please visit the address above and fill out the necessary form to your > state representative! If EACH one of us, forward this message on to > others > in a hurry, we may be able to prevent this injustice from happening! > > John Adair> Joe Scott wrote: > Tim,, > I don't understand what this has to do with my reply to Mary's post,, were > you replying to me or Mary? > > I'm not sure where "my example of $1000 profit" you speak of comes from? > > joe > > >>>Hence WON's never let a 20% profit turn into a loss rule. Using your > example > that $1000 profit offsets two bad trades and leaves $200 for profit. As a > further cushion, figure both your buy and sell comissions into the 8% and > 20% > so you don't fail to account for those expenses. Then you only need one out > of > 3 to be a winner. That is still expecting pretty good picking skills, so you > need to have some more than 20% winners in order to generate a decent rate > of > return. > > At 03:43 PM 12/12/98 -0500, you wrote: > >Mary, > > > >Wouldn't that depend on how many 8% losses you might have, takes an awful > >lot of 100.00 profits to offset a few 8% losses? > >Even a trade as small as 100 shares of a 50.00 stock would cost you 400.00 > >if you took a 8% loss.. Thats four of those 100.00 "wins" not even counting > >commissions. > > > >I agree small profits are better than losses, but I think you have to hold > >winners long enough or you just churn your account for small gains and the > >benefit of your broker. Which I know I have done way too many times. > >Just some thoughts. > > > >joe > > > >"Its the sitting that makes the money", > >thats one I read every morning, > >taped to the monitor.. > > > > - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "John Adair, M.D." Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] IRL Date: 13 Dec 1998 21:28:49 -0600 >Does anyone use the IRL component of Quotes PLus and if so in what way? >can anyone tell me how to export a list to excel and what format is necessary? John Adair > > - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "John Adair, M.D." Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] IRL Date: 13 Dec 1998 21:28:49 -0600 >Does anyone use the IRL component of Quotes PLus and if so in what way? >can anyone tell me how to export a list to excel and what format is necessary? John Adair > > - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Ronald J. Russell, Jr." Subject: [CANSLIM] Weekly Stock List - 12/11/1998 Date: 13 Dec 1998 23:38:44 -0500 All, Added the SMR rating to the full file this week. We dropped a few down to 239. Trade Well, Ron Symbol EPS RS GRS ERG A/D Close 30 ADV AFL 80 89 74 243 A $ 38.560 443,663 AVTC 89 89 94 272 B $ 23.250 80,597 ABDR 98 91 84 273 A $ 59.500 130,990 ANF 99 93 81 273 B $ 59.190 689,543 ACCS 96 90 75 261 B $ 37.560 269,933 ARX 84 94 79 257 A $ 13.130 149,850 ACS 93 90 85 268 B $ 40.630 117,013 AGPH 75 95 92 262 A $ 50.060 581,087 ABS 79 88 75 242 A $ 64.810 896,083 AEH 95 97 78 270 A $ 42.690 698,543 AGN 86 94 91 271 B $ 64.940 288,870 AHAA 76 98 99 273 A $ 24.750 142,053 ALTR 82 95 99 276 A $ 55.530 2,431,873 AZA 72 92 84 248 B $ 52.060 716,890 AOL 76 99 99 274 B $ 91.560 15,981,114 AMSY 83 89 85 257 A $ 35.880 271,307 APCC 90 92 83 265 B $ 41.690 634,903 AMGN 87 90 92 269 B $ 83.060 2,725,100 ANN 76 97 81 254 A $ 37.060 627,010 APEX 99 89 92 280 A $ 27.130 191,533 ARDT 76 96 94 266 B $ 18.000 278,367 AVEI 99 90 83 272 A $ 49.690 2,143,457 ASND 91 95 97 283 B $ 60.190 5,387,268 ASDV 76 88 94 258 B $ 36.750 280,203 AXNT 72 90 87 249 A $ 26.940 368,290 BSYS 85 91 85 261 B $ 50.750 102,183 BRL 88 88 88 264 A $ 46.000 159,513 BBBY 96 91 79 266 B $ 29.500 1,416,030 BHW 84 93 85 262 B $ 35.190 125,703 BBC 87 92 91 270 B $ 29.940 568,117 BDY 91 96 91 278 A $ 43.940 107,880 BGEN 73 97 92 262 B $ 81.910 1,227,310 BMET 84 87 83 254 B $ 37.060 680,540 EAT 73 92 71 236 A $ 26.250 300,177 BVSN 76 99 99 274 A $ 34.130 1,051,760 BBRC 83 88 99 270 B $ 21.500 254,410 BOBJY 95 94 94 283 B $ 19.060 504,157 CUBE 88 95 98 281 A $ 26.750 1,139,383 CDWC 97 97 98 292 A $ 88.630 177,530 CKSG 79 98 80 257 B $ 31.000 239,033 CSGS 84 97 85 266 A $ 68.560 343,087 CZM 72 94 73 239 A $ 30.750 206,640 CAH 91 88 91 270 B $ 71.440 722,982 CCL 90 88 67 245 B $ 38.250 1,444,813 POS 90 87 80 257 A $ 56.940 77,617 CTAL 76 93 84 253 B $ 18.060 255,310 CTL 87 93 87 267 A $ 61.190 293,920 CEN 79 86 85 250 B $ 65.000 376,907 CHKPF 99 92 87 278 A $ 36.380 1,067,743 CAKE 85 91 71 247 A $ 25.380 182,197 CHCS 79 98 81 258 B $ 23.380 108,570 PLCE 94 99 81 274 A $ 24.130 182,523 CTAS 87 87 74 248 B $ 59.250 200,490 CSCO 97 96 97 290 B $ 83.500 13,671,125 CTXS 97 95 94 286 B $ 82.500 779,443 CLFY 87 98 94 279 A $ 22.000 497,733 CLX 85 88 71 244 B $ 112.190 401,453 CMED 97 91 83 271 A $ 10.060 154,807 CBSI 97 86 85 268 B $ 29.500 377,510 CMNT 72 99 97 268 A $ 10.380 487,637 CSC 89 87 85 261 B $ 67.250 1,041,067 CPWR 98 94 94 286 B $ 67.000 1,937,170 CMVT 97 96 89 282 A $ 69.130 732,163 CCRD 80 98 94 272 B $ 52.630 190,557 ACCOB 78 90 78 246 B $ 52.250 95,240 COST 88 89 65 242 B $ 66.940 1,799,427 CREE 99 99 99 297 A $ 40.190 478,090 CBXC 97 98 83 278 A $ 39.750 114,053 DMMC 72 88 76 236 B $ 14.000 162,263 DRI 76 90 71 237 B $ 18.630 238,817 DRTE 76 94 75 245 A $ 22.690 336,340 ECILF 93 90 89 272 B $ 37.690 400,413 EMC 96 98 98 292 B $ 81.810 2,995,630 ECSGY 96 89 85 270 B $ 28.000 102,593 ELE 79 89 68 236 A $ 27.940 108,173 ENVY 76 88 85 249 B $ 40.940 211,883 EFX 85 85 84 254 B $ 41.940 220,453 XLSW 98 92 89 279 A $ 26.310 152,473 ESRX 95 95 91 281 B $ 55.880 117,943 FLEX 98 98 99 295 A $ 72.500 519,167 FOSL 87 96 63 246 B $ 28.380 131,073 GTW 89 88 95 272 B $ 53.440 2,314,410 GENZ 90 97 92 279 A $ 47.500 1,157,645 GEOC 72 98 94 264 B $ 28.190 209,723 GILTF 96 96 89 281 B $ 54.500 221,153 GMAI 76 99 79 254 A $ 13.630 778,087 GDT 98 89 91 278 B $ 92.000 715,327 HGR 96 93 91 280 B $ 22.690 77,880 HLYW 83 99 79 261 A $ 29.750 728,593 IDPH 76 94 92 262 A $ 43.560 523,343 RX 90 88 85 263 B $ 69.560 480,097 ITWO 99 88 94 281 B $ 25.690 1,048,487 IDXX 77 94 83 254 B $ 27.250 448,907 INCY 75 87 92 254 B $ 35.630 267,070 NSIT 97 96 98 291 A $ 43.750 349,177 INSO 75 93 94 262 B $ 20.630 189,093 INTL 95 88 89 272 B $ 22.690 193,970 INTV 79 99 89 267 A $ 32.130 285,433 IBM 85 94 93 272 B $ 168.000 3,399,663 INSS 99 97 85 281 B $ 53.000 214,723 IPL 85 86 68 239 A $ 52.940 88,127 IVX 76 89 88 253 A $ 11.130 350,007 JBL 74 97 99 270 A $ 63.190 427,523 JKHY 99 93 92 284 B $ 49.630 120,277 JVLN 76 86 92 254 A $ 11.810 87,093 JP 83 86 61 230 B $ 68.940 188,363 KBH 89 87 69 245 B $ 29.130 285,373 KTIC 91 85 64 240 A $ 24.250 95,953 KEP 76 98 68 242 A $ 18.000 363,277 KR 88 86 75 249 B $ 54.000 1,336,103 KROG 80 95 77 252 B $ 31.310 111,697 LAF 93 87 73 253 A $ 38.880 100,230 LVCI 76 97 90 263 A $ 17.250 202,517 LSON 93 93 84 270 B $ 57.500 272,827 LGTO 99 96 94 289 B $ 53.310 681,620 LEVL 98 95 99 292 A $ 33.190 1,081,943 LLY 88 89 84 261 B $ 89.940 2,110,433 LLTC 89 88 99 276 B $ 74.810 1,070,857 RDHS 93 89 71 253 B $ 23.250 82,590 LU 97 96 89 282 B $ 98.940 6,205,020 WCOM 81 95 87 263 B $ 64.380 10,015,408 MACR 76 99 97 272 A $ 29.630 899,803 MAST 98 89 85 272 A $ 27.500 255,890 MXIM 95 87 99 281 B $ 40.130 1,760,400 MMS 96 86 84 266 B $ 32.500 118,370 MXWL 70 94 67 231 A $ 34.630 76,890 MYG 95 88 66 249 A $ 58.500 505,373 MHP 83 88 88 259 A $ 97.690 331,920 MMGR 98 87 75 260 A $ 28.130 158,333 MRX 93 94 84 271 A $ 61.000 169,773 MEDQ 95 94 84 273 B $ 31.130 237,310 MDT 80 87 83 250 B $ 69.000 1,659,520 MERQ 71 95 94 260 B $ 52.630 222,347 MFNX 76 99 87 262 A $ 55.500 366,097 MTD 95 90 70 255 B $ 25.500 123,193 METZ 99 92 84 275 B $ 40.130 485,250 FMY 90 88 75 253 B $ 52.250 958,337 MCSC 98 96 72 266 B $ 23.000 99,727 MWHS 84 97 76 257 A $ 28.380 487,760 MCHP 70 96 98 264 A $ 37.880 1,060,747 MSFT 97 95 97 289 B $ 134.000 14,923,036 MSPG 76 99 99 274 A $ 64.130 1,640,823 MNMD 98 96 91 285 B $ 78.000 108,817 MTP 82 93 68 243 B $ 51.810 227,507 MYSW 76 99 97 272 A $ 10.130 248,427 NCOG 98 96 84 278 B $ 36.380 145,153 NCR 76 92 95 263 A $ 38.690 356,007 NLCS 88 93 94 275 A $ 32.500 197,273 NMGC 75 94 83 252 A $ 21.130 997,750 NTAP 98 98 98 294 B $ 71.750 458,757 NETA 99 91 87 277 A $ 53.380 1,898,540 NSOL 84 99 85 268 A $ 97.250 466,270 DDDDF 99 95 94 288 A $ 34.630 118,277 NEON 76 99 94 269 B $ 39.380 1,941,143 NOVL 76 96 97 269 A $ 17.810 6,414,963 ODP 90 87 72 249 B $ 30.940 1,488,630 OTEXF 76 91 97 264 A $ 18.310 189,030 ORCL 97 93 94 284 A $ 37.250 8,585,286 ORBKF 90 90 96 276 A $ 41.500 162,993 OSTE 70 92 91 253 A $ 32.000 128,150 OSSI 90 85 71 246 A $ 37.530 454,347 OSI 82 90 80 252 B $ 24.810 314,560 PE 77 93 68 238 B $ 39.000 788,723 PSSI 95 91 78 264 A $ 23.250 407,693 PDCO 90 87 78 255 B $ 41.500 118,747 PAYX 97 90 84 271 B $ 48.250 843,593 PERC 76 94 91 261 A $ 27.560 105,190 PRGN 80 97 94 271 A $ 39.250 357,367 PFGC 80 87 68 235 B $ 24.750 89,620 PERI 80 91 94 265 A $ 11.500 97,420 PFE 87 86 84 257 B $ 114.880 2,804,040 PPDI 87 92 65 244 A $ 27.630 211,483 PLXS 91 94 99 284 B $ 29.810 128,213 PMS 89 92 92 273 B $ 54.000 153,817 PLCM 76 98 89 263 B $ 19.810 732,577 PMRY 93 85 98 276 A $ 20.000 96,110 PRGS 78 96 94 268 B $ 31.000 140,590 PSDI 95 97 94 286 A $ 30.190 137,073 PVN 96 96 63 255 B $ 92.750 792,553 PROX 84 93 79 256 A $ 21.000 200,000 QLGC 71 99 99 269 A $ 112.380 202,783 ZQK 88 93 72 253 A $ 24.130 77,077 QTRN 98 88 65 251 B $ 55.750 741,620 RACN 81 95 62 238 A $ 13.630 91,267 RMBS 84 98 95 277 A $ 92.750 881,570 RATL 73 98 94 265 A $ 25.440 1,563,037 RGIS 85 90 79 254 A $ 36.630 134,320 RCGI 93 86 65 244 B $ 28.750 392,373 RESM 98 98 91 287 A $ 39.250 253,083 RPC 76 94 84 254 B $ 21.130 143,640 RYAN 82 85 71 238 A $ 11.880 123,447 SCI 76 95 95 266 A $ 49.500 637,723 SCMM 84 90 87 261 B $ 60.380 128,380 SDLI 91 97 99 287 A $ 32.630 166,243 SEIC 95 95 85 275 B $ 95.000 77,993 SLI 98 87 95 280 B $ 20.940 99,610 SWY 95 94 75 264 B $ 55.440 2,849,054 SALT 99 96 66 261 A $ 18.250 122,633 SANM 97 96 99 292 B $ 52.000 961,553 SGP 89 93 84 266 B $ 57.500 3,043,380 SCH 91 96 82 269 B $ 59.130 1,157,423 SCUR 76 97 87 260 A $ 18.000 415,850 SEGU 76 96 94 266 A $ 23.000 176,440 SERO 92 94 65 251 B $ 27.880 120,830 SFDS 80 86 94 260 A $ 28.000 267,287 SDG 86 94 83 263 B $ 113.750 331,707 SLR 89 97 95 281 B $ 71.500 602,703 TRK 94 89 67 250 B $ 27.500 77,080 SPLS 98 96 72 266 A $ 38.560 2,706,787 SBUX 97 90 71 258 B $ 50.190 1,428,590 SUNW 94 97 95 286 B $ 77.380 7,838,516 SYKE 99 93 84 276 A $ 24.060 193,663 SNPS 93 93 94 280 B $ 50.750 758,883 THQI 99 98 82 279 A $ 29.440 411,937 TSFW 98 98 94 290 B $ 39.250 124,477 TAGS 97 99 72 268 A $ 31.630 163,017 TGO 90 92 87 269 A $ 29.880 331,843 TLAB 98 91 89 278 B $ 64.810 3,300,817 TEX 76 85 64 225 A $ 25.310 118,437 TWMC 76 94 79 249 B $ 23.000 459,297 TXCC 76 99 99 274 A $ 31.000 295,117 UNPH 89 90 89 268 B $ 57.380 663,247 UIS 76 95 92 263 B $ 30.940 1,309,080 USM 81 90 85 256 A $ 40.500 75,697 VISX 78 98 90 266 B $ 77.440 430,637 VCELA 76 93 85 254 A $ 24.630 186,913 VRTS 99 94 94 287 B $ 56.500 619,117 VRTY 76 99 97 272 A $ 22.630 588,117 VSVR 83 90 97 270 A $ 13.250 129,637 VTSS 98 97 99 294 A $ 45.250 1,263,523 VOD 96 93 85 274 B $ 149.190 122,830 WMT 87 93 65 245 B $ 76.310 3,160,974 WAG 85 94 93 272 B $ 56.060 951,330 WLA 87 92 76 255 B $ 75.750 2,562,607 WAT 97 94 70 261 B $ 79.000 176,107 WPI 93 90 88 271 B $ 52.500 424,067 WTSLA 89 85 81 255 B $ 30.630 143,727 XOMD 99 95 83 277 B $ 28.250 113,917 YHOO 76 99 99 274 A $ 195.690 8,589,923 - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Ssingh@aol.com Subject: [CANSLIM] Merry Christmas and a happy new year (Non Canslim for sure) Date: 14 Dec 1998 00:25:07 EST To all Canslimmers: I wish all on the list Merry Christmas and Jeff has kindly helped me to send to all of you a beautiful Christmas tree at this address to download to your computer: ftp://ftp.xmission.com/pub/users/m/mcjathan/canslim/tree.exe This file is large and therefore will be available until Friday only. The file has been scanned and was found to be clean, but that everyone downloads and runs it at their own risk. Enjoy and have a wonderful new year. Surindra - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Thomas A. Moulton" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] bill to tax internet usage (way way off topic) Date: 14 Dec 1998 07:05:30 -0500 http://cnn.com/TECH/computing/9812/03/gingrich.idg/ While I agree it is worth watching, the issue may not be out of control yet... do you have a BILL #? -----Original Message----- >Please read the attached message and send your response to the listed >> website A.S.A.P. >> Date: Tue, 01 Dec 1998 12:21:40 -0500 >> CNN stated that the Government would in two weeks time decide to allow or >> not allow a Charge to your phone bill equal to a long distance call each >> time you access the internet. The address is: >> >> http://www.house.gov/writerep/ >> >> Please visit the address above and fill out the necessary form to your >> state representative! If EACH one of us, forward this message on to >> others >> in a hurry, we may be able to prevent this injustice from happening! >> >> >John Adair> - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Ari Lawson Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] 'M'DOW Head+Shoulders Date: 14 Dec 1998 10:14:13 -0500 Can someone tell me why this isn't just another head+shoulders or double H+S in the DOW? Thanks Ari Johan Van Houtven wrote: > >Without the breadth of a rally, > >we are set up nicely for a correction. > > We already are in a correction, IMHO. > > We have had more distribution days than WON deems necessary for a possible > correction to occur. A minimum of 3 or 4 distribution days in a period of a > few weeks is already enough to put you into 'a more alert' state to watch > for rally failures. > > We've already seen two rally failures in the DOW. > > Johan > > - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Peter D. Christiansen" Subject: [CANSLIM] LVCI numbers Date: 14 Dec 1998 22:31:16 +0700 Can someone with access to Daily Graphs Online give me the timeliness ranking and group strength for LVCI? It is not listed in my OTC book. Thanks you. -- Peter Christiansen Chiang Mai - Thailand * This year will go down in history. For the first time, a civilized nation has full gun registration! Our streets will be safer, our police more efficient, and the world will follow our lead into the future! -- Adolf Hitler, 1935 * - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Joe Scott" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] LVCI numbers Date: 14 Dec 1998 10:35:27 -0500 Timeliness A Acc/Dist A Group RS 90 joe - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: desmond michel Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Shareware programs Date: 14 Dec 1998 11:30:02 -0800 (PST) Please provide more info on Mach6.net. >>What do you think of Mach6.net?>> _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Jeffry White Subject: [CANSLIM] H&S DOW Date: 14 Dec 1998 15:18:500 -0500 >>From: Ari Lawson >>Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] 'M'DOW Head+Shoulders >>Can someone tell me why this isn't just another head+shoulders or double H+S in >>the DOW? >>Thanks Ari I agree, and we broke the neck line. JW (Thinking about sitting) - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Connie Mack Rea Subject: [CANSLIM] Technical stuff [Connie Mack] Date: 14 Dec 1998 15:42:36 -0500 Do not ignore that the 3/7/10 EMA has given a First, Second, and Third Level sell signal. These signals came within the first four days of December. Do not forget that this EMA would have taken you out of the market in the middle of October and shortly thereafter put you back in. Since that re-entry, you would have been in the market until the early December sell. Several indices are weak and weakening. To ignore this EMA is often to return to the market what it has given. To give back what the market has unwillingly given is to have taken out a loan that must be paid back in full, and often more. It is foolish to adhere to any intermediate to long term system in the face of short term buy and sell technical signals. A look at the MACD and Stochastic would have been further forewarnings. Preservation of capital ought to be the cardinal rule of every person in the market. Hawks take prey on the ground. Falcons take prey on the fly. The investor must be both hawk and falcon. Connie Mack - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Connie Mack Rea Subject: [CANSLIM] More technical stuff {Connie Mack} Date: 14 Dec 1998 15:56:22 -0500 I have told this to those with whom I privately correspond: I sold all my positions in MU, TIG, and BJS. I have sold these two such that I can take modest profits rather than because I think them weak. I have sold one half of my position in NOVL and am today trying to free the other. I am trying to take a further small profit out of the last half of my position; however, if NOVL doesn't look any weaker [down 1 at this writing] at the end of the day, I will consider restoring my original position. I have today bought small positions in MU and AMG with the intention of enlarging them on further weakness. Connie Mack - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Connie Mack Rea Subject: [CANSLIM] Money Axioms [Connie Mack] Date: 14 Dec 1998 16:15:35 -0500 Here are a few axioms to keep in mind. I did not author them. Connie Mack Golden Rules for Traders [and Investors] Many short-term players view trading as a form of gambling. Without planning or discipline, they throw money at the market. The occasional big score reinforces this easy money attitude but sets them up for ultimate failure. Without defensive rules, insiders easily feed off these losers and send them off to other hobbies. The discipline of technical analysis forces traders to distance themselves from this reckless behavior. Through detached execution and solid risk management, short-term trading can produce consistent profits. All you have to do is learn the rules: 1. Forget the news, remember the chart. You're not smart enough to know how news will affect price. The chart already knows the news is coming. 2. Buy the first pullback from a new high. Sell the first pullback from a new low. There's always a crowd that missed the first boat. 3. Buy at support, sell at resistance. Everyone sees the same thing and they're all just waiting to jump in the pool. 4. Short rallies not selloffs. When markets drop, shorts finally turn a profit and get ready to cover. 5. Don't buy up into a major moving average or sell down into one. See #3. 6. Don't chase momentum if you can't find the exit. Assume the market will reverse the minute you get in. If it's a long way to the door, you're in big trouble. 7. Exhaustion gaps get filled. Breakaway and continuation gaps don't. The old traders' wisdom is a lie. Trade in the direction of gap support whenever you can. 8. Trends test the point of last support/resistance. Enter here even if it hurts. 9. Trade with the TICK not against it. Don't be a hero. Go with the money flow. 10. If you have to look, it isn't there. Forget your college degree and trust your instincts. Markets invariably return to test prior support or resistance unless a natural barrier (such as a continuation gap) stands in the way. Besides price and pattern, common moving averages also provide classic swing reversal points. - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Dave Wood" Subject: [CANSLIM] quotes plus IRL Date: 14 Dec 1998 16:22:22 -0500 I use QP2 irl in place of those from IBD. Each Saturday, I make a 6 month performance ' report' ( usually 128 days) which I then export to excel. I basically use the qp2 the same way WON recommends using those of IBD ( buy the strongest stocks from the best performing IRLs) with one major caveat: Many of the stocks from qp2 are not part of an industry group. If you would like a copy of my excel spreadsheet just email me. Dave original message > >Does anyone use the IRL component of Quotes PLus and if so in what way? john Adair - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: David Reid Subject: [CANSLIM] FHT a sneaky internet play? Date: 14 Dec 1998 18:12:32 -0800 This company actually has earnings and has other nice fundamentals. any comments on this one would be appreciated. David > > > - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Ray Bunting" Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] quotes plus IRL Date: 14 Dec 1998 17:21:01 -0600 Dave, Please send me a copy of the excel spreadsheet.I am new to QP2. Do you run a scan if so could you give me a idea what goes in scan then do you export it to excel. Thanks for the help & spreadsheet. Ray Bunting -----Original Message----- [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com] On Behalf Of Dave Wood Sent: Monday, December 14, 1998 3:22 PM I use QP2 irl in place of those from IBD. Each Saturday, I make a 6 month performance ' report' ( usually 128 days) which I then export to excel. I basically use the qp2 the same way WON recommends using those of IBD ( buy the strongest stocks from the best performing IRLs) with one major caveat: Many of the stocks from qp2 are not part of an industry group. If you would like a copy of my excel spreadsheet just email me. Dave - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Charles Cangialosi" Subject: [CANSLIM] Darvas Date: 14 Dec 1998 19:22:41 -0500 I just read "How I made 2M in Stocks" by N. Darvas. I loved it. This guy was WON before WON. The interesting part of the book as it pertains to recent discussions on this list was his ability to hold onto a stock for a big gain. Having been away for a few days I have just caught up on the canslim reading. Much discussion on when to get out and when to stay in, small gains vs 8% stops. I am a newbie, and it was my post on INTL. My thinking was this. I purchased the stock at 80 (when you include the brokers fee). It was at 123. I was raising my stops to lock in a profit. At first I was giving lots of room. Then I became "clear" to me that the stock was going to have a turnaround, Mostly due to the market giving signs of correction. So I tightened up the stop. Finally when it got to 123 I put the stop real close. The stock turned and I was out at 120. I have no clue if this was a good decision or not. I just tried to read what the stock was doing. I know I was just lucky and there was no skill involved but I did not want to give back the money, I wanted it, it was mine. Darvas may have stuck it out, INTC is at 111 today. I am thinking of buying it again, I like the company a lot. If you have not read the book, do it, I read it in a day, while in airports and on planes. Charlie - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "John Adair, M.D." Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] charges for internet use Date: 14 Dec 1998 19:29:49 -0600 Please read the attached message and send your response to the listed > website A.S.A.P. > Date: Tue, 01 Dec 1998 12:21:40 -0500 > CNN stated that the Government would in two weeks time decide to allow or > not allow a Charge to your phone bill equal to a long distance call each > time you access the internet. The address is: > > http://www.house.gov/writerep/ > > Please visit the address above and fill out the necessary form to your > state representative! If EACH one of us, forward this message on to > others > in a hurry, we may be able to prevent this injustice from happening! > > John Adair> Peter D. Christiansen wrote: > Can someone with access to Daily Graphs Online give me the timeliness > ranking and group strength for LVCI? It is not listed in my OTC book. > Thanks you. > > -- > Peter Christiansen > Chiang Mai - Thailand > > > * This year will go down in history. For the first time, a civilized > nation has full gun registration! Our streets will be safer, our police > more efficient, and the world will follow our lead into the future! -- > Adolf Hitler, 1935 * > > - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] FHT a sneaky internet play? Date: 14 Dec 1998 20:31:57 -0500 Worsening or flat earnings in two of the last three qtrs, neg growth rate, EPS 54, ROE 7%, declining sales in two of the past three qtrs, debt of 54% - hard to believe it generates an RS of 95. Then again, if it was a true "internet" stock, who would care about these details? Yes, it does market via the net, but also uses TV, catalogs, telemarketing, and other media. Doesn't fit CANSLIM in any case. Tom W -----Original Message----- This company actually has earnings and has other nice fundamentals. any comments on this one would be appreciated. David > > > - - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "John Adair, M.D." Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Money Axioms [Connie Mack] Date: 14 Dec 1998 20:08:56 -0600 Hi Connie Mack Thanks for the axioms. I have printed them for posterity. I f I could just keep them in my psyche and act accordingly. John Adair Connie Mack Rea wrote: > Here are a few axioms to keep in mind. I did not author them. > > Connie Mack > > Golden Rules for Traders [and Investors] > > Many short-term players view trading as a form of > gambling. Without planning or discipline, they throw money at > the market. The occasional big score reinforces this easy money > attitude but sets them up for ultimate failure. Without defensive > rules, insiders easily feed off these losers and send them off to > other hobbies. > > The discipline of technical analysis forces traders to distance > themselves from this reckless behavior. Through detached > execution and solid risk management, short-term trading can > produce consistent profits. All you have to do is learn the rules: > > 1. Forget the news, remember the chart. You're not smart > enough to know how news will affect price. The chart already > knows the news is coming. > > 2. Buy the first pullback from a new high. Sell the first > pullback from a new low. There's always a crowd that missed > the first boat. > > 3. Buy at support, sell at resistance. Everyone sees the same > thing and they're all just waiting to jump in the pool. > > 4. Short rallies not selloffs. When markets drop, shorts finally > turn a profit and get ready to cover. > > 5. Don't buy up into a major moving average or sell down into > one. See #3. > > 6. Don't chase momentum if you can't find the exit. Assume the > market will reverse the minute you get in. If it's a long way to > the door, you're in big trouble. > > 7. Exhaustion gaps get filled. Breakaway and continuation > gaps don't. The old traders' wisdom is a lie. Trade in the > direction of gap support whenever you can. > > 8. Trends test the point of last support/resistance. Enter here > even if it hurts. > > 9. Trade with the TICK not against it. Don't be a hero. Go with > the money flow. > > 10. If you have to look, it isn't there. Forget your college degree > and trust your instincts. > > Markets > invariably > return to test > prior support > or resistance > unless a > natural > barrier (such > as a > continuation > gap) stands in > the way. > Besides price > and pattern, > common > moving > averages also > provide classic > swing reversal > points. > > - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Craig A. Griffin" Subject: [CANSLIM] Initial Market Decline May Be on Lower Volume Date: 14 Dec 1998 21:01:38 -0500 This might be relevant (if today is the beginning of a correction and not just another headfake) - O'Neil says HTMMIS, page 51: "Most stock technicians are fooled by the initial market decline off the top when they see volume contracting. They do not understand this is a normal occurrence after heavy distribution has occurred on the way up around the top. "Volume begins to pick up on the downside days or weeks later, when it becomes obvious to more investors." - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "John Adair, M.D." Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] bill to tax internet usage (way way off topic) Date: 14 Dec 1998 20:22:38 -0600 Sorry for the subject matter. I feel If we have to pay a lond distance fee to use the internet there will be no canslim board. I apologize and will stick to the topic at hand. John Adair No I dont have a bill # Thomas A. Moulton wrote: > http://cnn.com/TECH/computing/9812/03/gingrich.idg/ > > While I agree it is worth watching, the issue may not > be out of control yet... > > do you have a BILL #? > > -----Original Message----- > From: John Adair, M.D. > To: canslim@lists.xmission.com > Date: Sunday, December 13, 1998 10:15 PM > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] bill to tax internet usage > > >Please read the attached message and send your response to the listed > >> website A.S.A.P. > >> Date: Tue, 01 Dec 1998 12:21:40 -0500 > >> CNN stated that the Government would in two weeks time decide to allow or > >> not allow a Charge to your phone bill equal to a long distance call each > >> time you access the internet. The address is: > >> > >> http://www.house.gov/writerep/ > >> > >> Please visit the address above and fill out the necessary form to your > >> state representative! If EACH one of us, forward this message on to > >> others > >> in a hurry, we may be able to prevent this injustice from happening! > >> > >> > >John Adair> > > - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: TM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Shareware programs Date: 14 Dec 1998 21:02:59 -0800 (PST) You can watch a portfolio of delayed quotes during the market hours; you can download free software. Check it out at Mach6.net ---desmond michel wrote: > > Please provide more info on Mach6.net. > > > >>What do you think of Mach6.net?>> > > _________________________________________________________ > DO YOU YAHOO!? > Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com > > > - > > _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Connie Mack Rea Subject: [CANSLIM] Technical stuff [Connie Mack] Date: 15 Dec 1998 09:04:54 -0500 RDK and RCII, as I look at yesterday's close, ought to be worth a few dollars. Connie Mack - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Johan Van Houtven Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Initial Market Decline May Be on Lower Volume Date: 15 Dec 1998 11:53:22 +0100 Craig wrote: >This might be relevant (if today is the beginning of a correction and not >just another headfake) - > >O'Neil says HTMMIS, page 51: >"Most stock technicians are fooled by the initial market decline off the >top when they see volume contracting. They do not understand this is a >normal occurrence after heavy distribution has occurred on the way up >around the top. Craig, About the "...after heavy distribution has occurred on the way up around the top" I have always interpreted the above as: Look for distribution when the rally is still going strong, before the ultimate top. So for the NASDAQ (with the benefit of hindsight) we would have to look for distribution that occured before the 12/08 intra-day top. Is my interpretation correct? >"Volume begins to pick up on the downside days or weeks later, when it >becomes obvious to more investors." I assume you are looking at the NASDAQ when writing the above, as yesterdays decline was on lower vol than the previous day. Maybe we shouldn't have to wait before the NASDAQ confirms what the Dow has been telling us for a while now: we are in a significant correction. The Dow is not a popular index on this list, but even in the current 26 lesson series WON says one should watch this index. So it is still an important index, even if it is made up of 'only' 30 companies. IMHO, one should watch the 3 major indices as WON suggests. The Dow was giving much clearer 'correction comming / correction is here' clues before the NASDAQ started to point at a possible correction. Best regards, PS: just for fun: Here are the distribution days I noticed on the NASDAQ (based on QPv2 data): 12/10 12/08 12/03 11/30 11/24 -- Johan Van Houtven - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com (Jeff Salisbury) Subject: [CANSLIM] Changing your canslim subscription Date: 15 Dec 1998 08:00:01 -0700 This is a monthly posting to the CANLSLIM group. Frequently, people sign up for the canslim list and then are overwhelmed by the volume of the email. There are two remedies for this problem: 1) You can leave our group, or 2) you can switch to the digest version which "conglomerates" many canslim messages into one large message. To change your configuration, email a message to: majordomo@xmission.com The remove yourself from the canslim list, write in the body of the email: unsubscribe canslim To add yourself to the digest version of the canslim list, write in the body of the email: subscribe canslim-digest For general help with majordomo commands, write in the body of the email: help If you need further clarification, write me directly at: canslim-owner@lists.xmission.com Best Regards, Jeff Salisbury - CANSLIM list admin / owner - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "John Adair, M.D." Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] saving Weekly Stock List to excel Date: 14 Dec 1998 19:53:25 -0600 Hi Ronald Thanks of tid data. I would llike to save this to excel . Do you know how I can save this in to excel from this net mail. John Adair Ronald J. Russell, Jr. wrote: > All, > Added the SMR rating to the full file this week. We dropped a few down to 239. > > Trade Well, > Ron > Symbol EPS RS GRS ERG A/D Close 30 ADV > AFL 80 89 74 243 A $ 38.560 443,663 > XOMD 99 95 83 277 B $ 28.250 113,917 > YHOO 76 99 99 274 A $ 195.690 8,589,923 > > - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Craig A. Griffin" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Initial Market Decline May Be on Lower Volume Date: 15 Dec 1998 11:28:27 -0500 Johan wrote: >About the "...after heavy distribution has occurred on the way up around >the top" > >I have always interpreted the above as: Look for distribution when the >rally is still going strong, before the ultimate top. So for the NASDAQ >(with the benefit of hindsight) we would have to look for distribution that >occured before the 12/08 intra-day top. Is my interpretation correct? Johan, Yes, I interpret it the same way. And that, until you get a "sell signal", you should simply notice each distribution day as a sort of warning to be alert. I believe yesterday may have been the first sell signal (but I thought I saw one about a week ago too and that turned out to not be the case). As you know, O'Neil recommends selling one or two of your weakest performers at each sell signal. I now read it that, unless we hit new highs, any successive "rally failure" will be a new sell signal. >>"Volume begins to pick up on the downside days or weeks later, when it >>becomes obvious to more investors." > >I assume you are looking at the NASDAQ when writing the above, as >yesterdays decline was on lower vol than the previous day. Yes, NASDAQ. >Maybe we shouldn't have to wait before the NASDAQ confirms what the Dow has >been telling us for a while now: we are in a significant correction. Maybe. Divergences are a concern, because they will usually resolve themselves one way or the other before too long. I just did an interesting comparison. Do a weekly log chart of 999 weeks on QP of the NASDAQ (!COMP). Then do an overlay (Options, Overlay) of the Dow (!DJ30). They track each other quite well over the years. But, there are also several interesting periods in which they do not exactly track each other. I was unable to draw any particular conclusions about those periods. Over the long haul, however, if the Dow had tracked the NASDAQ exactly since July 1990, the DJIA would stand at about 13000 today. When one overlays the S&P 500 (!SPX), one gets, incredibly, an almost perfect match with the chart of the Dow. >The Dow is not a popular index on this list, but even in the current 26 >lesson series WON says one should watch this index. So it is still an >important index, even if it is made up of 'only' 30 companies. Agreed, it is still very important, if for no other reason than it's psychological affect on the market. Also, it is composed of several of the largest companies, which should reflect what is (will be) going on with the economy, and therefore with the rest of the market. >IMHO, one should watch the 3 major indices as WON suggests. The Dow was >giving much clearer 'correction comming / correction is here' clues before >the NASDAQ started to point at a possible correction. True it was. IMHO, the market has splintered. The advance has been made of a small number of stocks which are truely leading (ie. forming bases and breaking out to new highs with good followthrough). Until the advance broadens out, it is suspect. This may be one of those times when there is ok money to be made in either direction, short or long, with the right stocks. (Warning - all of the above paragraph is simply opinion.) Look at one of the leaders, AMZN, hitting new highs today. Look at an old leader, QTRN, finally chugging higher. Look at smaller stocks, like CBUK over the last couple of days, breaking out. There are still a few good bases around. On the other hand, there are quite a few stocks which have tried to rally and then pulled back. Some have just bounced off the bottom of their 50dma and are turning lower, those are the ones I would consider shorting. I am having a hard time reading this market. It looks like it "should" correct, but it acts like it just wants to shake people out. It dropped too far, too fast in September, and now it has come back too far, too fast. Is it a double top, heading into a long term bear, or is it the start of a correction, or just a bit of profit taking before turning higher? Personally, I would vote for bear or correction - but ... The Above is Simply More Opinion. As time goes on, it becomes clearer to me why HTMMIS seems a bit obscure at times. Zen master of the market that he is, O'Neil realizes that a few brush strokes sometimes paint a clearer picture and allow for the many unknowns and exceptions that exist. Thanks for the response, Johan. You did force me to reveal my uncertainties in more detail - which is probably useful, both to myself and to others. Best Regards, Craig - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Tim Fisher Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Initial Market Decline May Be on Lower Volume Date: 15 Dec 1998 08:48:26 -0800 Volume in the "leaders" was very close to average; I certainly did not see any panick selling in anything I own. So was it really the first "sell signal" or yet another cautionary distribution day? I am confused. I thought I was following the market signals going into the Oct correction but you seem to be contradicting the interpretation of index action that posters to this list made back then. Although I certainly wouldn't buy anything even if I did have the cash right now, I don't see a reason to sell stronger holdings yet. Weaker ones should be suspect; I think I'll dump JKHY if it doesn't hit my 8% stop by the end of the day. On 08:28 AM 12/15/98 , Craig A. Griffin Said: >Johan wrote: >>About the "...after heavy distribution has occurred on the way up around >>the top" >> >>I have always interpreted the above as: Look for distribution when the >>rally is still going strong, before the ultimate top. So for the NASDAQ >>(with the benefit of hindsight) we would have to look for distribution that >>occured before the 12/08 intra-day top. Is my interpretation correct? > >Johan, > >Yes, I interpret it the same way. And that, until you get a "sell signal", >you should simply notice each distribution day as a sort of warning to be >alert. I believe yesterday may have been the first sell signal (but I >thought I saw one about a week ago too and that turned out to not be the >case). As you know, O'Neil recommends selling one or two of your weakest >performers at each sell signal. > >I now read it that, unless we hit new highs, any successive "rally failure" >will be a new sell signal. > >>>"Volume begins to pick up on the downside days or weeks later, when it >>>becomes obvious to more investors." >> >>I assume you are looking at the NASDAQ when writing the above, as >>yesterdays decline was on lower vol than the previous day. > >Yes, NASDAQ. > >>Maybe we shouldn't have to wait before the NASDAQ confirms what the Dow has >>been telling us for a while now: we are in a significant correction. > Tim Fisher Ore-Rock-On and Pacific Fishery Biologists WWW Sites Tim@OreRockOn.com WWW: http://OreRockOn.com See naked fish and rocks! - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: rolatzi Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] quotes plus IRL Date: 15 Dec 1998 08:56:42 -0800 (PST) Dave, I have qp2 but not IRL. Would the spreadsheet be useful for my analysis. I am most interested in sticking to the strongest industries and the best stocks in that industry which I currently do by looking them up on Ian's list. If you send me the file Yahoo has a 500K limit on attachments. Please let me know if it ils bigger and I will give you another e-mail address to send to. Thanks, rolatzi ---Dave Wood wrote: > > I use QP2 irl in place of those from IBD. Each Saturday, I make a 6 month > performance ' report' ( usually 128 days) which I then export to excel. I > basically use the qp2 the same way WON recommends using those of IBD ( buy > the strongest stocks from the best performing IRLs) with one major caveat: > Many of the stocks from qp2 are not part of an industry group. If you would > like a copy of my excel spreadsheet just email me. > > Dave > original message > > > >Does anyone use the IRL component of Quotes PLus and if so in what way? > > john Adair > > > - > > _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Craig A. Griffin" Subject: [CANSLIM] Off Subject - Web (Tulip) Mania Date: 15 Dec 1998 13:12:23 -0500 I probably should stop mentioning stocks like YHOO and AMZN here. They clearly are overvalued as many before me have pointed out. And they do not have the C and A parts of Canslim. But the N and L have been overrides, which, to me, make them worthy speculations when breaking out of good bases (they are all Extended now so forget buying them). Anyway, here is an article from Forbes that re-enforces the concept of not shorting high fliers, regardless of the fundamentals. They can always go (a lot) higher. I sense, however, that the game is about over (for a while at least). AMZN's action today might even end up being the second part of a double top for that stock. http://www.forbes.com/forbes/98/1228/6214101a.htm - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: musicant@autobahn.org (Dan Musicant) Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Off Subject - Web (Tulip) Mania Date: 15 Dec 1998 19:58:03 GMT On Tue, 15 Dec 1998 13:12:23 -0500, you wrote: :I probably should stop mentioning stocks like YHOO and AMZN here. They :clearly are overvalued as many before me have pointed out. And they do = not :have the C and A parts of Canslim. But the N and L have been overrides, :which, to me, make them worthy speculations when breaking out of good = bases :(they are all Extended now so forget buying them). : :Anyway, here is an article from Forbes that re-enforces the concept of = not :shorting high fliers, regardless of the fundamentals. They can always = go :(a lot) higher.=20 : :I sense, however, that the game is about over (for a while at least). :AMZN's action today might even end up being the second part of a double = top :for that stock. =20 : :http://www.forbes.com/forbes/98/1228/6214101a.htm : Craig, I think history will be a little kinder to Web-mania than Tulip-mania (category - gross understatements). I wouldn't short either of these issues on a long term basis, only short term, and that's not something I'm thinking about doing. AMZN's actions today look very powerful (looking at the 2 day intra-day chart at Big Charts). As you note, they have N and L to spare... Dan - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Tim Fisher Subject: [CANSLIM] Fwd: Finance - Midday Update @ 12/15/98 Date: 15 Dec 1998 12:02:59 -0800 How do ya like this math? Must be "New Math"! (or "Media Math"?) >Finance - Midday Update for Tuesday, December 15, 1998 >U.S. TRADING SUMMARY: U.S. stocks were mostly higher at Tuesday's >midsession, but the market's overall tone remained cautious after >a new round of profit warnings and rising expectation that >President Bill Clinton will be impeached. The Dow Jones Industrial >Average was up 23 points at 8719 shortly after midday, reversing >nearly half a 126-point skid on Monday. Tim Fisher Ore-Rock-On and Pacific Fishery Biologists WWW Sites Tim@OreRockOn.com WWW: http://OreRockOn.com See naked fish and rocks! - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Craig Griffin Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Off Subject - Web (Tulip) Mania Date: 15 Dec 1998 16:13:54 -0500 I wrote: >I sense, however, that the game is about over (for a while at least). >AMZN's action today might even end up being the second part of a double top >for that stock. Dan wrote: >AMZN's actions today look very powerful Powerful indeed. Ha - just goes to show how quickly the market can prove you wrong . Looks more like a continuation move now that it powered on through 230. Best Regards, Craig - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: JANSI1AUG1@aol.com Subject: [CANSLIM] Re. Tech Analysis of Stocks and Commodities Date: 15 Dec 1998 16:01:49 EST Mary: Wouldn't that be similar to looking at + and - volume for a particular day? If the mutual fund index is down but the + volume is up, that's a divergence worthy of attention. What do you think? Mary, here's what I think. The price of a Mutual Fund tracks the prices of the stocks it invests in. Those who invest in mutual funds hypothetically redeem their shares at the Market's bottom (ie. they've lost all hope, and are completely pessimistic) or buy shares during a buying frenzy at the Market's top (ie. too late in the bull market). This makes intuitive sense since, for instance, the greater number of redemptions the more money is sitting on the side, so the greater chance that, when the Market's low is met, there will be enough fuel to pump it up. (I say "intuitive sense" because to break the inertia of a bear and change it into the acceleration of a rising bull, you need a lot of hay, viz. money.) Therefore, graphing an IBD "A" mutual fund with redemptions/cash inflows underneath, will display pictorially as the following: When the market bottoms and there is a high redemption rate (relative to the cash inflows) this will show up as a bullish divergence. And when the market tops and there is a lo redemtion rate (relative to the cash inflows), this will show up as a bearish divergence. As to your suggestion that it could be similar to the + and - volume in Big Charts: I don't know. It's similar in that both techniques can use "divergence analysis". But it's dissimilar in that one uses "volume" and one uses "cash flow". To me it's like comparing apples and oranges: They're both fruits, but they look and taste differently. To be candid, Mary, the idea was intriguing to me intellectually. And, I believe, it is a valid one. But I have NO empirical evidence that it would work in the real world. jans - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: mckeener@ix.netcom.com Subject: [CANSLIM] M Date: 15 Dec 1998 16:36:36 -0600 (CST) Patrick, Your points are well taken, and I must agree with you. No doubt that is the reason my portfolio profit picture doesn't look too good. My profits have been minimal compared to my losses. I would have rebought when it passed its resistance of 46-1/2 (first bottom). Have a laugh. It's so easy when you're looking back! Isn't a chart a visual representation of a business? It's the only way for me "to see" a company. I agree, though, with your statement about a stock eventually going up. However, when, and how long will it take? In the meantime, my investment is being tied up waiting on this one stock when I could be in another stock that is doing much better. Are you referring here to a stock that goes up or down because of its industry, or +/-earnings of a member group rather than on its own power? Very much because of the dialogue and sorting through thoughts. The reminder is needed. Mary - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "John Iding" Subject: [CANSLIM] QP2 Scans Date: 15 Dec 1998 14:36:49 -0800 I tried to look back at archives for previous discussions about this ... with no luck ... I am interested in QP2 scan criteria that comes close to CANSLIM criteria ... just got the software and playing with it ... thanks ... John - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "S Menon" Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] CMED breakout. Date: 15 Dec 1998 16:10:59 PST CMED broke out today. Picked up a few shares. Also added BRCM to my portfolio, Hope it will be a good long term play. SMenon ______________________________________________________ Get Your Private, Free Email at http://www.hotmail.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Scott Vickery Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Applying classic Elder to current Canslim "M" Date: 15 Dec 1998 20:58:45 -0500 Hey there, I am purusing the archive from last spring, and it is a bit tedious this way. Did I see a simple search engine for the archive somewhere? Seems like I did, but, I do not seem to see it now. Scott At 03:43 PM 12/11/98 -0500, you wrote: >Hello Doctor, > >You can access the archives at the following address: > >http://www.xmission.com/~mcjathan/cgi/lwgate.cgi/CANSLIM/ > >My series from the spring is in there. I don't have the volume >numbers available, but will try to dig out the information when >I have some time. In the interim if you want to find them, >look for keywords: "Elder" and "Triple Screen". > >One other note: If the MACD-histogram display is hard >to read or ambiguous on the computer screen, >readers should print out the Bigchart charts on hardcopy. >I find them far clearer on paper. This applies to my >example of the Nasdaq index chart. > >Happy trading, > >Walter. > >John Adair, M.D. wrote: > >> Sounds good. can you tell me how to get into the archives for a year >> ago. >> John Adair >> >> Walter Stock wrote: >> >> > When trying to decipher "M", I concentrate on three >> > things (ok, ok, I admit I pay attention to lots >> > of economic "noise" too). >> > >> > Anyway the three are: >> > 1) WON's follow-through and distribution signals >> > according to HTMMIS and his IBD series. >> > 2) Market psychology (see IBD Thursday editions >> > for sentiment indicators). >> > 3) Dr. Alexander Elder's Triple Screen >> > >> > If you are using triple screen with the S&P 500 or >> > Nasdaq indices this year, you are making substantial money. >> > >> > Go to Bigcharts and pull up a Nasdaq chart using >> > the following parameters: >> > >> > Symbol: Nasdaq >> > Time: 1 year >> > Frequency: Weekly >> > Lower indicator: MACD >> > Leave the rest of the fields blank. >> > >> > Remember that these are the correct settings for an >> > intermediate-term Canslim-style trader. >> > >> > Following this first screen alone, and looking for initial >> > MACD-histogram upticks for entry into the market, >> > this would have been your "M" schedule for the year: >> > >> > In: Last week of December 97 >> > Out: 1st week April 98 >> > >> > In: 3rd week June >> > Out: 3rd week July >> > >> > In: 2nd week Sept >> > Out: 4th week Sept >> > >> > In: 2nd week October >> > We are still in today and will exit with the first downtick >> > in the MACD-histogram. More cautious triple-screeners >> > will already be taking profits and exiting weaker stocks. >> > ( I have already cut back to 30% invested.) >> > >> > I don't think you ask for much better "M" results for >> > this year. Then again, Elder's approach works best in >> > the kind of trending markets we have been in. >> > (So don't fall in love with just one bloody indicator.) >> > >> > Newbies interested in applying this to individual stocks >> > should look up my series from last spring in the archives >> > (especially the applications using KEA and other stocks). >> > The full triple screen is applied there in some detail. >> > >> > Hope this helps, >> > >> > Walter Stock >> > Oakville, ON, Canada >> > >> > - >> >> - > > > > >- > > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] On "M" - some random thoughts Date: 15 Dec 1998 21:39:04 -0500 I haven't posted a whole lot on this topic, but some of the posts tonight got me to mulling over just what I see as going on. First, in both the stock and bond mkts, there have been some huge recent gains for those that cashed out prior to the last correction and moved back in anywhere along the rally up. So some profit taking must be expected. Second, in truth little has changed. Japan is still in trouble, mired in recession, facing major bank industry collapse. Latin America is still struggling with huge drops in commodities, esp oil, and fighting against slipping into recession, which is very near for several countries. Russia's mkt has remarkably recovered, however the ruble continues to fall, and the credit risk is extremely high amid major political uncertainty. The Euro goes into effect in two weeks, and is already seen as a major stabilizer, as well as competitor to the US dollar. Thus money is moving around. Brazil, which is promised guaranteed bailout by IMF, fails to deliver on required reform. Some new leadership such as S. Korea, New Zealand, and Singapore, may be trying to emerge but still struggling. The US dollar has weakened against most currencies, thus increasing the costs of their export products, and further stressing their domestic economies. Japan sees another govt takeover of a major bank (badly needed in the world opinion) and fears further banking collapse instead. Third, this rally, which started out fairly broad based, quickly evolved once again into a big cap rally. And it's the big caps which are warning of earnings shortfalls in Q4. The Russell 2000, which had a promising base, is resolving itself to the downside. The NYSE was the first clear signal of a rally failure, now the Nasdaq is confirming it along with the Trans index (if we were truly entering another economic expansion thanks to both Fed rate cuts and efforts by corps, this index should be leading the way). The 10 dma of up/down volume on Naz simply was not sustainable. Fourth, and particularly sig IMHO, we still have not seen a showing whether we are in a bull rally in a new bear mkt, or the start of a new bull calf. At the moment, if it's a calf, it's mewing rather than roaring. Inflation cannot be blamed, today's figures once again give Greenspan much latitude. With inventories continuing to grow, and mfr activity and capacity utilization dropping, we are not threatening inflation, if anything we are threatening recession during the prime shopping season. My conclusion is that we have rallied from excessively oversold conditions to an over exuberant mania for "potential" leaders such as is found among the internet stocks. Excessive optimism is always a warning signal to me, and it's abundant. I remain unconvinced that we are yet into a new bull mkt, however immature. For those willing to look and observe, and that's often very difficult, there have been many warning signs. The performance of the Dow 30, while at times spectacular, is signaling correction. The NYSE composite failed to follow suit, and now Naz and R2000 are signaling exhaustion failures, IMHO again. The upside is that volume has been dropping, but new highs/low never gained the level I would expect, and now are negative. Finally, of course, one should also be cognizant of the "noise" effect of news. If you consider the US economy and mkt to be the backbone of the world financial mkts, then you must consider the sentiment created by Slick Willy's current troubles. He is, without question, several steps closer to being impeached by the House. And with the Republicans steadfastly saying that censure is not an option for the House to consider (supported pretty well by Constitutional law) then impeachment by the full House becomes more likely (esp with 3 more undecided Republicans deciding to vote in favor of impeachment). Will the Senate remove him?? Highly unlikely in my opinion unless something far more damaging comes out, and that's doubtful. But a new poll indicating that some 52% of the voters think he should resign if impeached rather than stand trial is significant. That's a big shift in sentiment from the high percent that don't want him removed from office. He's got to stonewall it past Jan 19, 1999 to give Gore a shot at two full elected terms (fat chance), but I'm willing to bet that he'll make it at least that far. And the mere possibility of our truth embroidering sitting (or standing, as opposed to Walkin' Lawton Gov Chiles, may God rest his soul) Prez being forced out of office thru one means or another is putting a major blanket on our rally. Tom W - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Applying classic Elder to current Canslim "M" Date: 15 Dec 1998 22:35:46 -0500 Scott, Try this address, should work to the limits of its capability: http://www.xmission.com/~mcjathan/canslim/search.html Tom W -----Original Message----- Hey there, I am purusing the archive from last spring, and it is a bit tedious this way. Did I see a simple search engine for the archive somewhere? Seems like I did, but, I do not seem to see it now. Scott At 03:43 PM 12/11/98 -0500, you wrote: >Hello Doctor, > >You can access the archives at the following address: > >http://www.xmission.com/~mcjathan/cgi/lwgate.cgi/CANSLIM/ > >My series from the spring is in there. I don't have the volume >numbers available, but will try to dig out the information when >I have some time. In the interim if you want to find them, >look for keywords: "Elder" and "Triple Screen". > >One other note: If the MACD-histogram display is hard >to read or ambiguous on the computer screen, >readers should print out the Bigchart charts on hardcopy. >I find them far clearer on paper. This applies to my >example of the Nasdaq index chart. > >Happy trading, > >Walter. > >John Adair, M.D. wrote: > >> Sounds good. can you tell me how to get into the archives for a year >> ago. >> John Adair >> >> Walter Stock wrote: >> >> > When trying to decipher "M", I concentrate on three >> > things (ok, ok, I admit I pay attention to lots >> > of economic "noise" too). >> > >> > Anyway the three are: >> > 1) WON's follow-through and distribution signals >> > according to HTMMIS and his IBD series. >> > 2) Market psychology (see IBD Thursday editions >> > for sentiment indicators). >> > 3) Dr. Alexander Elder's Triple Screen >> > >> > If you are using triple screen with the S&P 500 or >> > Nasdaq indices this year, you are making substantial money. >> > >> > Go to Bigcharts and pull up a Nasdaq chart using >> > the following parameters: >> > >> > Symbol: Nasdaq >> > Time: 1 year >> > Frequency: Weekly >> > Lower indicator: MACD >> > Leave the rest of the fields blank. >> > >> > Remember that these are the correct settings for an >> > intermediate-term Canslim-style trader. >> > >> > Following this first screen alone, and looking for initial >> > MACD-histogram upticks for entry into the market, >> > this would have been your "M" schedule for the year: >> > >> > In: Last week of December 97 >> > Out: 1st week April 98 >> > >> > In: 3rd week June >> > Out: 3rd week July >> > >> > In: 2nd week Sept >> > Out: 4th week Sept >> > >> > In: 2nd week October >> > We are still in today and will exit with the first downtick >> > in the MACD-histogram. More cautious triple-screeners >> > will already be taking profits and exiting weaker stocks. >> > ( I have already cut back to 30% invested.) >> > >> > I don't think you ask for much better "M" results for >> > this year. Then again, Elder's approach works best in >> > the kind of trending markets we have been in. >> > (So don't fall in love with just one bloody indicator.) >> > >> > Newbies interested in applying this to individual stocks >> > should look up my series from last spring in the archives >> > (especially the applications using KEA and other stocks). >> > The full triple screen is applied there in some detail. >> > >> > Hope this helps, >> > >> > Walter Stock >> > Oakville, ON, Canada >> > >> > - >> >> - > > > > >- > > - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Patrick Wahl" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] M Date: 15 Dec 1998 21:42:20 -0800 Date sent: Tue, 15 Dec 1998 16:36:36 -0600 (CST) > Let's take CPWR as an example, if you don't > object. I presume you bought it sometime in > March if you've been holding it for 9 months. Maybe my math is bad, or I forgot it was Dec. already, bought in Feb. > Was your knowledge of the company based on "inside > information"? The reason for my question is because > strong companies with excellent fundamentals can go > down very quickly. How do you protect yourself if > you don't have inside information? Mostly, the company made enough very positive comments that they convinced me all those declines in the stock were strictly market events, and not due to any problem in the company itself. Also, sales and earnings were accelerating, and were very consistent over 8 quarters or so. Smaller companies can make some fairly sharp turns in their earnings, but mid-size (i'd call CPWR mid_size) and larger companies seem like it takes a bit more to slow them down. > Isn't a chart a visual representation of a business? Mostly yes, and I've bought plenty of companies knowing nothing more than what the chart looked like and how fast sales and earnings were growing. Usually you can get a pretty good handle on how well a company is doing just from the chart. But I was referring to trying to separate the company from the market when we have some abnormal market events. > Are you referring here to a stock that goes up or down > because of its industry, or +/-earnings of a member > group rather than on its own power? No, I mean looking at the big picture, is the stock still trending up by some broad measure even though it may be retracing part of a previous move. Selling is sort of complicated, don't really have it nailed down myself. I probably have a bunch of different rules and apply them a bit erratically. So these are just a few ideas for certain situations. - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: dbphoenix Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Initial Market Decline May Be on Lower Volume Date: 16 Dec 1998 00:58:49 +0000 (GMT) It's easy to get wrapped up in short-term buy and sell signals at times like these. It's also a big mistake. Craig's reference to broad brushstrokes was well-worth paying attention to. Bring up a price-and-volume bar chart of the Naz for the last few months and remove all MAs, trendlines, text notes, etc., and just look at the relationship of price and volume. Notice how volume has been contracting for nearly two weeks during this "dome". This is not to say that we are facing imminent collapse. The Dow and S&P have pulled back into their trading ranges very quickly, which is a good sign. The NYSE and the Naz have yet to fall through their trading ranges, which is also a plus. However, volume is nothing to get excited about. And we are very near Christmas, and those who have been through this period know what that's like. Maybe the major averages will all reach new highs on spectacular volume, but since the markets will be effectively closed during much of the next few weeks, one may not want to take any new positions if the only people around are daytraders. --Db == "Lessons are repeated until they are learned." http://home.talkcity.com/MoneySt/dbphoenix/ _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Patrick Wahl" Subject: [CANSLIM] amwd, snrz Date: 15 Dec 1998 22:02:11 -0800 American Woodmark (AMWD) looks interesting here, seems to have completed a base and may be ready to move to new highs. Volume tuesday not very impressive though. Sunrise Assisted Living (SNRZ) was mentioned in Barrons by Cedd Moses, who is a pretty sharp growth stock guy. Also has a constructive looking chart pattern, appears to have a good growth rate. - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Initial Market Decline May Be on Lower Volume Date: 16 Dec 1998 08:33:50 -0500 Don't overlook the fact that we are also in the middle of tax related selling season, where stocks that are up or down big time, either in recent months or for the year, will be sold for tax related reasons rather than their chart or fundies. This increases the selling pressure, while adding nothing to the buy side, at least till the very end of the month when most tax related sellers will have already sold. Tom W -----Original Message----- which is also a plus. However, volume is nothing to get excited about. And we are very near Christmas, and those who have been through this period know what that's like. Maybe the major averages will all reach new highs on spectacular volume, but since the markets will be effectively closed during much of the next few weeks, one may not want to take any new positions if the only people around are daytraders. --Db - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Re. Tech Analysis of Stocks and Commodities Date: 15 Dec 1998 21:45:52 -0500 The only thing that I would add to this is to consider that mutual fund investors tend to be long term players, they have cash (from whatever source, including selling at a prior high) that they want to invest but don't want the bother of day to day mkt tracking. They tend to stay invested thru the unsustainable highs, then plug in more cash at the perceived lows. Tom W -----Original Message----- Mary: Wouldn't that be similar to looking at + and - volume for a particular day? If the mutual fund index is down but the + volume is up, that's a divergence worthy of attention. What do you think? Mary, here's what I think. The price of a Mutual Fund tracks the prices of the stocks it invests in. Those who invest in mutual funds hypothetically redeem their shares at the Market's bottom (ie. they've lost all hope, and are completely pessimistic) or buy shares during a buying frenzy at the Market's top (ie. too late in the bull market). This makes intuitive sense since, for instance, the greater number of redemptions the more money is sitting on the side, so the greater chance that, when the Market's low is met, there will be enough fuel to pump it up. (I say "intuitive sense" because to break the inertia of a bear and change it into the acceleration of a rising bull, you need a lot of hay, viz. money.) Therefore, graphing an IBD "A" mutual fund with redemptions/cash inflows underneath, will display pictorially as the following: When the market bottoms and there is a high redemption rate (relative to the cash inflows) this will show up as a bullish divergence. And when the market tops and there is a lo redemtion rate (relative to the cash inflows), this will show up as a bearish divergence. As to your suggestion that it could be similar to the + and - volume in Big Charts: I don't know. It's similar in that both techniques can use "divergence analysis". But it's dissimilar in that one uses "volume" and one uses "cash flow". To me it's like comparing apples and oranges: They're both fruits, but they look and taste differently. To be candid, Mary, the idea was intriguing to me intellectually. And, I believe, it is a valid one. But I have NO empirical evidence that it would work in the real world. jans - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Johan Van Houtven Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Initial Market Decline May Be on Lower Volume Date: 16 Dec 1998 16:01:37 +0100 And Friday is a triple witching day. The preceding days often have pronounced volatility (in some stocks). At 08:33 AM 16/12/98 -0500, you wrote: >Don't overlook the fact that we are also in the middle of tax related >selling season, where stocks that are up or down big time, [snip] -- Johan Van Houtven - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Mypiason3@aol.com Subject: [CANSLIM] big block selling Date: 16 Dec 1998 10:34:50 EST I am assuming that big block selling is an institution and when they sell they sell into good news. Is there any rules to institutional selling such as they tend to sell into good news and then wait for more good news or once they make the decision to sell they continue to sell until their position is liquidated. Thanks ahead of time Bill White - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] big block selling Date: 16 Dec 1998 10:58:54 -0500 Institutional selling (or buying) is kinda wierd sometimes. By and large institutions do block trades. Thus if they want to buy, they may give an order to a broker dealer to pick up a qtr mil shares or so. These shares may be accumulated over the trading day, or even over several days. So by the time you see the actual block trade executed, it may be the opposite side of many much smaller trades. Likewise when they sell. If they are esp anxious to sell a large block, it often will be executed well below the mkt, with a broker dealer taking it into inventory and assuming mkt risk that they can piece it out to the mkt at a higher price. As to your basic question, yes, when an institution makes a buy or sell decision, they usually do the entire position. But a block trade does not necessarily equate institutional. A well established retail broker can easily take down 20 to 50 thousand shares (or more) for his clients. And like the institutional, he wants the same price for all his clients for easier bookkeeping, even if its an average of several prices. And if the block comes from a broker, then there could be several more blocks to follow as he contacts those clients he must speak to first. To contradict one point you made, institutions will sell into bad news even quicker than they will sell into good news, esp if the bad news is unexpected. Tom W -----Original Message----- I am assuming that big block selling is an institution and when they sell they sell into good news. Is there any rules to institutional selling such as they tend to sell into good news and then wait for more good news or once they make the decision to sell they continue to sell until their position is liquidated. Thanks ahead of time Bill White - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "David S. Pinhasik" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] CLFY Date: 16 Dec 1998 18:47:56 +0200 >is breaking out on 2.5X ADV. Comp SW-Enterprise is one of the groups >I've listed as having the highest intermediate-term RS. > >--Db Could someone list the CANSLI numbers? Thanks, David - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: rolatzi Subject: [CANSLIM] HH breakout Date: 16 Dec 1998 09:18:08 -0800 (PST) HH seems to be breaking out currently at 27 with a volume of 40,000 versus av daily vol of 49,000. Do I dare take on a new position with the reversal signals over the last two weeks? Stay tuned. Ciao, rolatzi _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Tim Fisher Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] HH breakout Date: 16 Dec 1998 11:48:45 -0800 My opinion: now is a very risky time to be taking new positions. I got out of three weak ones today and have no plans to cruise for new purchases until after the new year. I am seeing extreme volatility in stocks that have been relatively docile until this week - notably JKHY & GMSTF. P.S. I don't see a breakout in HH today - the volume's there but the price movement is sorry. On 09:18 AM 12/16/98 , rolatzi Said: >HH seems to be breaking out currently at 27 with a volume of 40,000 >versus av daily vol of 49,000. Do I dare take on a new position with >the reversal signals over the last two weeks? Stay tuned. >Ciao, >rolatzi > Tim Fisher Ore-Rock-On and Pacific Fishery Biologists WWW Sites Tim@OreRockOn.com WWW: http://OreRockOn.com See naked fish and rocks! - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Johan Van Houtven Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Initial Market Decline May Be on Lower Volume Date: 16 Dec 1998 21:40:33 +0100 Craig and all, >Yes, I interpret it the same way. And that, until you get a "sell signal", >you should simply notice each distribution day as a sort of warning to be >alert. Agreed (from a CANSLIM standpoint). >I just did an interesting comparison. Do a weekly log chart of 999 weeks >on QP of the NASDAQ (!COMP). Then do an overlay (Options, Overlay) of the >Dow (!DJ30). They track each other quite well over the years. But, there >are also several interesting periods in which they do not exactly track >each other. I was unable to draw any particular conclusions about those >periods. Over the long haul, however, if the Dow had tracked the NASDAQ >exactly since July 1990, the DJIA would stand at about 13000 today. Thank you. Very interesting exercise. >>IMHO, one should watch the 3 major indices as WON suggests. The Dow was >>giving much clearer 'correction comming / correction is here' clues before >>the NASDAQ started to point at a possible correction. > >True it was. IMHO, the market has splintered. The advance has been made >of a small number of stocks which are truely leading (ie. forming bases and >breaking out to new highs with good followthrough). Until the advance >broadens out, it is suspect. If it stays this narrow and continues to rally, chances are we'll see a narrow big cap rally with a blow off top like we experienced in July. >I am having a hard time reading this market. I haven't come across anyone who hasn't had a hard time reading this market the last few days. (I view this as a positive. It motivates me to get back in.) >It looks like it "should" >correct, but it acts like it just wants to shake people out. It dropped >too far, too fast in September, and now it has come back too far, too fast. > Is it a double top, heading into a long term bear, or is it the start of a >correction, or just a bit of profit taking before turning higher? >Personally, I would vote for bear or correction - but ... The Above is >Simply More Opinion. To add some more Opinion if I may: There are a lot of worries for the market and Saddam added Irak to the 'immediate worry list' again today. For me this signals a time to go shopping. (If that isn't perfectly ambiguous? Will I be shopping stocks or goods?) >As time goes on, it becomes clearer to me why HTMMIS seems a bit obscure at >times. Zen master of the market that he is, O'Neil realizes that a few >brush strokes sometimes paint a clearer picture and allow for the many >unknowns and exceptions that exist. What I have learned lately is that I do not have to sell so quickly when the 4 distribution days in a row present themselves. WON never said this either. I should only weed the weak ones. Especially with a market that has had this strong upward momentum there is plenty of time to phase out (if necessary). For myself, I'll remember this as follows: You do not fire your best employees (top performing stocks) when the going gets though (bad market), if some must go, it will be the worst performing onces. (Sorry for the harsh example, it just happens to be an easy way to keep this important rule in mind for me.) Thanks you for your knowlegdeable comments. Johan - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Mypiason3@aol.com Subject: [CANSLIM] large average trade size What does it mean? Date: 16 Dec 1998 15:35:20 EST My question regards the stock PDQ I feel that I can gain valuable knowledge by the action of this stock. The chart is a cup with a handle however the handle is blow its 200 MA and the handle formed in the bottom half of the stock. It is not a stock I own but I have been following this one. Lately it looked like it might be breaking out of the handle. So far today the volume doubled with almost no gain. The stock opened at 9 15/16 went to 10.25 then to a low of 9 13/16 and been trading the remainder of the day around 9 7/8. The confusing thing is the average trade size is 4838 for 128 trades. I don't know what possibilities are coming into play. I did watch the stock trade and noticed that the ask volume was showing around 25000 to 50000 all day. I was assuming it was an institution or trader unloading positions hence the question earlier. However, just as I am writing this post the volume on the ask and bid switched dramatically. The bid volume is now around 25000and the ask 3500. The bid price is 10 and ask 10 1/8. Has the buying overcome the selling? Does anyone have speculations as to what could have been occuring with the share trade volume being so high, as compared to the past couple months? Thank in advance and thank you Tom for answering the last question. Bill White - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] large average trade size What does it mean? Date: 16 Dec 1998 16:42:08 -0500 First, you gotta be sure of what you are dealing with. PDQ is not a valid CANSLIM stock, IMHO. RS 54, loads of debt, minimal insider ownership, heavy funds ownership, etc. The chart shows a solid downtrend, interrupted by a basing period marked by heavy (can we say obscene) insider buying (to the extent I would be suspect, since insiders are invariably wrong, looks like cohersion to me). On a chart like this, I would expect selling resistance all the way back up, but the size can vary widely as various players enter limit sells, then pull them back if the stock looks strong. I would not characterize the chart as a cup and handle, rather step back and look at the broader picture and I see a stock in a steady downtrend, which has now been interrupted by a basing pattern. Whether it continues higher or lower from this base remains to be seen, but it's still a base, not a c&h. Tom W -----Original Message----- My question regards the stock PDQ I feel that I can gain valuable knowledge by the action of this stock. The chart is a cup with a handle however the handle is blow its 200 MA and the handle formed in the bottom half of the stock. It is not a stock I own but I have been following this one. Lately it looked like it might be breaking out of the handle. So far today the volume doubled with almost no gain. The stock opened at 9 15/16 went to 10.25 then to a low of 9 13/16 and been trading the remainder of the day around 9 7/8. The confusing thing is the average trade size is 4838 for 128 trades. I don't know what possibilities are coming into play. I did watch the stock trade and noticed that the ask volume was showing around 25000 to 50000 all day. I was assuming it was an institution or trader unloading positions hence the question earlier. However, just as I am writing this post the volume on the ask and bid switched dramatically. The bid volume is now around 25000and the ask 3500. The bid price is 10 and ask 10 1/8. Has the buying overcome the selling? Does anyone have speculations as to what could have been occuring with the share trade volume being so high, as compared to the past couple months? Thank in advance and thank you Tom for answering the last question. Bill White - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Wayne & Laura Risner Subject: [CANSLIM] Merry Christmas Date: 15 Dec 1998 20:35:00 -0600 To all on Wayne's World and Laura's email list, I never sent an email to this many people in my life. I hope everyone has a Jerry Christmas and a happy new Weir. I mean a Merry Christmas and a happy new year. Wayne & Laura & the pugs ( Wyatt and Annie) - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "John Adair, M.D." Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Initial Market Decline May Be on Lower Volume Date: 16 Dec 1998 18:49:34 -0600 I think your suggestion to sit on it for the duration of 98 is a good one . Do you fear it enough to go to cash until 99 or after impeachment hearings are over. John Adair dbphoenix wrote: > It's easy to get wrapped up in short-term buy and sell signals at > times like these. It's also a big mistake. Craig's reference to > broad brushstrokes was well-worth paying attention to. > > Bring up a price-and-volume bar chart of the Naz for the last few > months and remove all MAs, trendlines, text notes, etc., and just look > at the relationship of price and volume. Notice how volume has been > contracting for nearly two weeks during this "dome". This is not to > say that we are facing imminent collapse. The Dow and S&P have pulled > back into their trading ranges very quickly, which is a good sign. > The NYSE and the Naz have yet to fall through their trading ranges, > which is also a plus. However, volume is nothing to get excited > about. And we are very near Christmas, and those who have been > through this period know what that's like. Maybe the major averages > will all reach new highs on spectacular volume, but since the markets > will be effectively closed during much of the next few weeks, one may > not want to take any new positions if the only people around are > daytraders. > > --Db > > == > > "Lessons are repeated until they are learned." > > http://home.talkcity.com/MoneySt/dbphoenix/ > > _________________________________________________________ > DO YOU YAHOO!? > Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com > > - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "sam morrison" Subject: [CANSLIM] OCLI Date: 16 Dec 1998 20:03:41 -0500 Could today's (12-16-98) price/volume action of OCLI be considered a breakout of a C/H pattern? And if so would it be proper canslim to take a position considering the current market conditions? I am a beginner and would appreciate comments. Sam - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Jeffry White Subject: [CANSLIM] M Date: 16 Dec 1998 20:00:58 -0500 Need help. IBD suggests today that the '90 bear market formed a similar cup and handle base as we are seeing now in the indices. The Iraq War (or whatever you want to call it) resulted in a breakout in January '91, the last documented bull market turn. The month-by-month comparision to this "bear" and "cup and handle" phase is interesting, the suggestion that Clinton impeachment efforts may provide the catalyst for a new "bull" is likewise intriguing. However, as I recall, sentiment from Summer '90 was way "bullish" and took until the end of the year to burn down to the levels we saw in early October of this year. Does anyone have access to ANY sentiment data from 10/90 through 1/91. A chart of Puts/Calls, advisor sentiment, newsletters, anything for a little bit of comparison. Frank? Didn't you send me a chart on sentiment from the 90-91 period? Thanks for your help. Jeff P.S. Found one from Frank back in August, but it's only from 1/91 forward. Ain't quite swift enough to send it the the ftp, or whatever. Perhaps someone out there can find one with all of '90 included so that we could have a look. Based upon the chart I'm looking at, sentiment was at the opposite extreme in late '90 early '91 from where we are now. - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Jeffry White Subject: [CANSLIM] Puts/Calls '90 and '91 Date: 16 Dec 1998 20:09:23 -0500 Here's a Puts/Calls ratio chart for the period: http://decisionpoint.com/HistCharts/PCfiles/pc9092.html JW - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "twells5" Subject: [CANSLIM] QP2 SCANS Date: 16 Dec 1998 20:17:40 -0500 John, From the QP2 Homepage there is a link to a site which has the "Largest QP2 scan database in the world." I saw at least one CANSLIM scan there, but I didn't download it so I don't know whether or not it is any good at CANSLIM screening. There may be others there as well. Good luck. Tim W. - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Krukever Subject: [CANSLIM] Just a little more uptend... Date: 16 Dec 1998 23:10:43 -0300 I just need a little more uptend to cash out for a good vacations, i hope to touch my sell stops in aol and cmvt. I think i will liquidate aeos and ann, they don=B4t seem to move from the range they=B4re in. It=B4s a pitty i got= out too soon from seek. SALUDOS, DIEGO KRUKEVER.- - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Tim Fisher Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] OCLI Date: 16 Dec 1998 18:32:00 -0800 The chart is remarkably similar to HH. Today appears to be a legit breakout on their earnings report. Some people don't like breakouts on news; AFAIK WON doesn't care what causes the move. It has decent fundies bu the debt would concern me. My sell stops are getting taken out one by one - for me that means no buying until a buy signal is given by the market. At 08:03 PM 12/16/98 -0500, you wrote: >Could today's (12-16-98) price/volume action of OCLI be considered a >breakout of a C/H pattern? And if so would it be proper canslim to take a >position considering the current market conditions? I am a beginner and >would appreciate comments. > >Sam > Tim Fisher, 1995 President, Pacific Fishery Biologists Ore-ROCK-On Rockhounding Web Site PFB Information mailto:tim@OreRockOn.com WWW http://OreRockOn.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Ssingh@aol.com Subject: [CANSLIM] (no subject) Date: 16 Dec 1998 22:00:26 EST * #*# *. *.- ~.~. ~ -._ . _.* ~~~~~~~ | | MARRY CHRISTMAS & HAPPY NEW YEAR - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Patrick Wahl" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Initial Market Decline May Be on Lower Volume Date: 16 Dec 1998 20:36:29 -0800 Date sent: Wed, 16 Dec 1998 21:40:33 +0100 > What I have learned lately is that I do not have to sell so quickly when > the 4 distribution days in a row present themselves. WON never said this > either. I should only weed the weak ones. Especially with a market that has > had this strong upward momentum there is plenty of time to phase out (if > necessary). I plotted the distribution days on the S&P a few months ago over the past few years, and didn't find them that predictive of market declines. Often they only signaled a pause or very brief decline. Regarding selling stocks, when I see volatility go up, as it has recently, I usually at least get off margin, and I do that by selling what I am closest to break even on. I try to hang on to anything that still seems to have upside potential if the market resumes its uptrend. - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Patrick Wahl" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] QP2 Scans Date: 16 Dec 1998 20:36:29 -0800 > I tried to look back at archives for previous discussions about this ... > with no luck ... I am interested in QP2 scan criteria that comes close to > CANSLIM criteria ... just got the software and playing with it ... thanks > ... John I think a good start is the 1,3, and 5 year revenue and earnings growth functions, then add in average volume, close > 15 or so, and maybe make sure price is greater than the 50 day moving average. That will give a manageable list that can be manually scanned. I am new on Quotes plus, can't hlep too much, maybe trying EPS growth > 30% a year is a good start. - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Patrick Wahl" Subject: [CANSLIM] geoc Date: 16 Dec 1998 20:42:36 -0800 Geotel (GEOC) broke out (again) from a flat base today. Volume looked to be a bit over double the average today. Also, Express Scipts is forming a nice base after a recent price rise. That is one to keep an eye on. - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] On "M" Date: 16 Dec 1998 23:14:59 -0500 Not surprisingly, Asia is mostly down following the US attack on Iraq. More interesting is New Zealand up over 2%, a lot of strength there. No surprise, the vote on impeaching Slick Willy has now been postponed. While I'm still idealistic enough to believe that the attack is unrelated to his political troubles, I am also glad I have no family members in the "cannon fodder" cadre. Japan again falling below 14 thousand level, reality once again winning out over sentiment. Prepare for more volatility in the marketplace, VIX back over 30 and climbing. Tom W - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Peter D. Christiansen" Subject: [CANSLIM] Breakouts AMTR, OCLI & TGO Date: 17 Dec 1998 11:16:23 +0700 OCLI and TGO staged convincing looking breakouts today. AMTR looks like it is starting to break out. -- Peter Christiansen Chiang Mai - Thailand * Those who would give up essential Liberty to purchase a little temporary Safety, deserve neither Liberty nor Safety. -- Benjamin Franklin, 1759 * - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Krukever Subject: [CANSLIM] Just a little more uptend... done. Date: 17 Dec 1998 01:17:30 -0300 >I just need a little more uptend to cash out for a good vacations, i hope to >touch my sell stops in aol and cmvt. I think i will liquidate aeos and ann, >they don=B4t seem to move from the range they=B4re in. It=B4s a pitty= i got out too >soon from seek. DONE!, i=B4ve cashed out everything. I think i got out too soon because i= had potential in aol... but, a good holiday is first. I=B4ll be out for a month, so have a happy new year and happy Christmas for everyone. I=B4ll not trade this month but i=B4ll leave you a stock list for analizing: cof c csco wcom "CMGI" "AOL" nsol vrio exds xmcm SALUDOS, DIEGO KRUKEVER.- - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Frank V. Wolynski" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] M Date: 16 Dec 1998 23:52:26 -0500 At 20:00 12/16/98 -0500, you wrote: >Need help. > >However, as I recall, sentiment from Summer '90 was way "bullish" and >took until the end of the year to burn down to the levels we saw in >early October of this year. Almost. Bulls High of 49.6% on 7/30/90. Bulls hit a low of 27.9% on 9/24/90 and then started back up. By 2/18/91 the Bulls were up to 51.3% > >Does anyone have access to ANY sentiment data from 10/90 through 1/91. >A chart of Puts/Calls, advisor sentiment, newsletters, anything for a >little bit of comparison. > >Frank? Didn't you send me a chart on sentiment from the 90-91 period? > >Thanks for your help. > >Jeff The chart I sent you is also available at Decision Point. http://decisionpoint.com/ChartsWeekly/0aaii.html I almost hate to admit that I have the AAII sentiment numbers, Market Vane, and Investors Intelligence from 7/3/89 to 9/13/93. I have the period you are interested in. It is on an old 286 laptop that the floppy doesn't work on anymore. I'll have to go through a modem transfer to get it to my current W95 machine. It is also in (God Jeffery, you're making me give away my ancientness) Quatro Pro Ver 1.0 format. I'll upconvert it, pretty it up, post it on a web site I'll post the 'URL' to here. I also have the weekly Put/Call ratios for the S&P100 and the CBOE Equity options from 6/18/90 to 9/20/93. Ditto on the process to get a chart to ya. If you'd like the raw data also, let me know and I'll make it so you can download either a .csv, .wb3 (quatro) file or an Excel. Sometime on Thursday is the best I can do as far as expediting the info though. Regards, Frank Wolynski - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: rolatzi Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] M Date: 16 Dec 1998 17:48:18 -0800 (PST) This is a list of Market Vane Bullish Sentiment from 1990-1991. I hope it helps. DAT MV 01/05/90 51% 01/12/90 50% 01/19/90 57% 01/26/90 59% 02/02/90 50% 02/09/90 43% 02/16/90 42% 02/23/90 47% 03/02/90 42% 03/09/90 46% 03/16/90 51% 03/23/90 52% 03/30/90 54% 04/06/90 53% 04/13/90 57% 04/20/90 56% 04/27/90 53% 05/04/90 51% 05/11/90 51% 05/18/90 58% 05/25/90 59% 06/01/90 62% 06/08/90 58% 06/15/90 57% 06/22/90 54% 06/29/90 50% 07/06/90 50% 07/13/90 55% 07/20/90 59% 07/27/90 55% 08/03/90 54% 08/10/90 45% 08/17/90 48% 08/24/90 44% 08/31/90 49% 09/07/90 51% 09/14/90 53% 09/21/90 51% 09/28/90 48% 10/05/90 51% 10/12/90 51% 10/19/90 43% 10/26/90 45% 11/02/90 48% 11/09/90 50% 11/16/90 45% 11/23/90 48% 11/30/90 47% 12/07/90 45% 12/14/90 49% 12/21/90 40% 12/28/90 40% 01/04/91 44% 01/11/91 41% 01/18/91 39% 01/25/91 46% 02/01/91 46% 02/08/91 49% 02/15/91 61% 02/22/91 71% 03/01/91 63% 03/08/91 60% 03/15/91 59% 03/22/91 56% 03/29/91 59% 04/05/91 59% 04/12/91 57% 04/19/91 57% 04/26/91 47% 05/03/91 58% 05/10/91 52% 05/17/91 50% 05/24/91 54% 05/31/91 52% 06/07/91 52% 06/14/91 51% 06/21/91 48% 06/28/91 39% 07/05/91 41% 07/12/91 41% 07/19/91 46% 07/26/91 47% 08/02/91 45% 08/09/91 42% 08/16/91 46% 08/23/91 39% 08/29/91 39% 09/05/91 40% 09/12/91 39% 09/19/91 36% 09/26/91 38% 10/03/91 40% 10/10/91 35% 10/17/91 38% 10/24/91 44% 10/31/91 52% 11/07/91 42% 11/14/91 45% 11/21/91 40% 11/28/91 36% 12/05/91 35% 12/12/91 36% 12/19/91 35% 12/26/91 35% ---Jeffry White wrote: > > Need help. > > IBD suggests today that the '90 bear market formed a similar cup and > handle base as we are seeing now in the indices. The Iraq War (or > whatever you want to call it) resulted in a breakout in January '91, the > last documented bull market turn. > > The month-by-month comparision to this "bear" and "cup and handle" phase > is interesting, the suggestion that Clinton impeachment efforts may > provide the catalyst for a new "bull" is likewise intriguing. > > However, as I recall, sentiment from Summer '90 was way "bullish" and > took until the end of the year to burn down to the levels we saw in > early October of this year. > > Does anyone have access to ANY sentiment data from 10/90 through 1/91. > A chart of Puts/Calls, advisor sentiment, newsletters, anything for a > little bit of comparison. > > Frank? Didn't you send me a chart on sentiment from the 90-91 period? > > Thanks for your help. > > Jeff > > P.S. Found one from Frank back in August, but it's only from 1/91 > forward. Ain't quite swift enough to send it the the ftp, or whatever. > Perhaps someone out there can find one with all of '90 included so that > we could have a look. Based upon the chart I'm looking at, sentiment > was at the opposite extreme in late '90 early '91 from where we are now. > > - > > _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Frank V. Wolynski" Subject: [CANSLIM] Sentiment - 90-91 Put/Call Date: 17 Dec 1998 07:00:51 -0500 My data started in mid 90. -------- || S&P 100 || || CBOE Equity || || Date || Puts Calls || Ratio || Puts Calls || Ratio || -------- 06/18/90 || 852165 927050 || 0.92 || 253411 813178 || 0.31 || 06/25/90 || 432814 401449 || 1.08 || 242400 594198 || 0.41 || 07/02/90 || 476605 477574 || 1.00 || 229370 551003 || 0.42 || 07/09/90 || 269917 231990 || 1.16 || 105530 350086 || 0.30 || 07/16/90 || 609729 618795 || 0.99 || 242663 830068 || 0.29 || 07/23/90 || 775762 790195 || 0.98 || 342204 944374 || 0.36 || 07/30/90 || 602346 444237 || 1.36 || 298628 723337 || 0.41 || 08/06/90 || 737342 583648 || 1.26 || 406243 828434 || 0.49 || 08/13/90 || 889307 751932 || 1.18 || 329710 671609 || 0.49 || 08/20/90 || 1008942 789995 || 1.28 || 356500 692807 || 0.51 || 08/27/90 || 805550 700317 || 1.15 || 357785 748105 || 0.48 || 09/03/90 || 527271 540074 || 0.98 || 237934 541907 || 0.44 || 09/10/90 || 424750 369079 || 1.15 || 169364 402326 || 0.42 || 09/17/90 || 641534 549504 || 1.17 || 217132 466827 || 0.47 || 09/24/90 || 906688 696625 || 1.30 || 344436 565299 || 0.61 || 10/01/90 || 705745 659777 || 1.07 || 347964 679455 || 0.51 || 10/08/90 || 642885 767835 || 0.84 || 293967 616694 || 0.48 || 10/15/90 || 958974 857896 || 1.12 || 404829 591569 || 0.68 || 10/22/90 || 989469 1043618 || 0.95 || 386421 745312 || 0.52 || 10/29/90 || 421590 507129 || 0.83 || 284849 567646 || 0.50 || 11/05/90 || 541642 613922 || 0.88 || 280763 462066 || 0.61 || 11/12/90 || 667795 694186 || 0.96 || 226769 440370 || 0.51 || 11/19/90 || 841351 902321 || 0.93 || 265989 718429 || 0.37 || 11/26/90 || 277639 254891 || 1.09 || 172909 318805 || 0.54 || 12/03/90 || 435888 499868 || 0.87 || 202546 441027 || 0.46 || 12/10/90 || 587653 645573 || 0.91 || 348547 797863 || 0.44 || 12/17/90 || 536294 444798 || 1.21 || 268320 549315 || 0.49 || 12/24/90 || 660530 710040 || 0.93 || 250107 650952 || 0.38 || 12/31/90 || 153693 125558 || 1.22 || 93614 179585 || 0.52 || 01/07/91 || 339347 327885 || 1.03 || 165915 349342 || 0.47 || 01/14/91 || 831350 698589 || 1.19 || 265942 491890 || 0.54 || 01/21/91 || 955582 926868 || 1.03 || 442373 930042 || 0.48 || 01/28/91 || 477154 440561 || 1.08 || 315372 635496 || 0.50 || 02/04/91 || 565121 553871 || 1.02 || 289211 646049 || 0.45 || 02/11/91 || 926869 930493 || 1.00 || 317075 1012180 || 0.31 || 02/18/91 || 968187 1119328 || 0.86 || 323658 1040373 || 0.31 || 02/25/91 || 405670 370081 || 1.10 || 229920 542222 || 0.42 || 03/04/91 || 534449 544273 || 0.98 || 286446 829038 || 0.35 || 03/11/91 || 675830 725988 || 0.93 || 264073 811660 || 0.33 || 03/18/91 || 787162 876547 || 0.90 || 310135 842050 || 0.37 || 03/25/91 || 428800 408897 || 1.05 || 341444 720479 || 0.47 || 04/01/91 || 307478 383152 || 0.80 || 228501 561122 || 0.41 || 04/08/91 || 515879 599858 || 0.86 || 258158 578233 || 0.45 || 04/15/91 || 587731 640167 || 0.92 || 250903 606359 || 0.41 || 04/22/91 || 920275 1099060 || 0.84 || 329283 994887 || 0.33 || 04/29/91 || 474661 459532 || 1.03 || 275294 828008 || 0.33 || 05/06/91 || 562625 540488 || 1.04 || 241651 543351 || 0.44 || 05/13/91 || 647819 677402 || 0.96 || 241736 585064 || 0.41 || 05/20/91 || 947079 860519 || 1.10 || 282997 555041 || 0.51 || 05/27/91 || 384380 346669 || 1.11 || 202917 447856 || 0.45 || 06/03/91 || 438062 447216 || 0.98 || 183811 584265 || 0.31 || 06/10/91 || 464118 463711 || 1.00 || 217141 552370 || 0.39 || 06/17/91 || 558824 567142 || 0.99 || 221327 443513 || 0.50 || 06/24/91 || 720605 699550 || 1.03 || 270979 550679 || 0.49 || 07/01/91 || 483314 419932 || 1.15 || 243319 459673 || 0.53 || 07/08/91 || 311094 281771 || 1.10 || 132409 312105 || 0.42 || 07/15/91 || 580695 594900 || 0.98 || 220770 495770 || 0.45 || 07/22/91 || 558673 700683 || 0.80 || 286733 762793 || 0.38 || 07/29/91 || 359670 375802 || 0.96 || 200654 459571 || 0.44 || 08/05/91 || 364656 415107 || 0.88 || 185664 482946 || 0.38 || 08/12/91 || 482862 562036 || 0.86 || 191195 450520 || 0.42 || 08/19/91 || 710804 773262 || 0.92 || 290542 698141 || 0.42 || 08/26/91 || 637546 581701 || 1.10 || 287651 651072 || 0.44 || 09/02/91 || 332828 321704 || 1.03 || 193282 486486 || 0.40 || 09/09/91 || 396398 356774 || 1.11 || 215204 452416 || 0.48 || 09/16/91 || 569981 534272 || 1.07 || 283347 583415 || 0.49 || 09/23/91 || 572037 597913 || 0.96 || 237246 630769 || 0.38 || 09/30/91 || 352062 391314 || 0.90 || 227732 601504 || 0.38 || 10/07/91 || 594735 555923 || 1.07 || 172460 421590 || 0.41 || 10/14/91 || 591941 595835 || 0.99 || 260661 481076 || 0.54 || 10/21/91 || 696838 823581 || 0.85 || 306231 814882 || 0.38 || 10/28/91 || 437518 425761 || 1.03 || 241920 499167 || 0.48 || 11/04/91 || 471437 518597 || 0.91 || 212499 555410 || 0.38 || 11/11/91 || 511519 558978 || 0.92 || 192129 493923 || 0.39 || 11/18/91 || 768283 760507 || 1.01 || 274257 610961 || 0.45 || 11/25/91 || 833967 665062 || 1.25 || 231335 635037 || 0.36 || 12/02/91 || 348118 348519 || 1.00 || 151550 330081 || 0.46 || 12/09/91 || 565505 552958 || 1.02 || 243686 567969 || 0.43 || 12/16/91 || 702927 642964 || 1.09 || 224270 518700 || 0.43 || 12/23/91 || 761382 741051 || 1.03 || 180809 574381 || 0.31 || 12/30/91 || 394028 431005 || 0.91 || 170937 478939 || 0.36 || - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Johan Van Houtven Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Initial Market Decline May Be on Lower Volume Date: 17 Dec 1998 10:08:47 +0100 >I plotted the distribution days on the S&P a few months ago over >the past few years, and didn't find them that predictive of market >declines. Often they only signaled a pause or very brief decline. Patrick, I'd always combine distribution reading with sentiment readings. Otherwise one is going to look at distribution days that are less meaningfull. Not all distribution days are 'imminent danger' signals. And as a side note: In the 'the past few years' the market has stormed ahead like crazy. Looking at the big pictures over a period of many years, every correction has been somewhat of a joke if you will. In that sence looking nealrly all distribution days have little meaning. -- Johan Van Houtven - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Connie Mack Rea Subject: [CANSLIM] OBV/MF/technical [Connie Mack] Date: 17 Dec 1998 09:40:24 -0500 These five stocks are OBV/MF: CERS TECH RSCR EOG APA They are in various stages of readiness to buy. Here is a chance to apply technical indicators to determine which show the most promise. E.g., apply the standard indicators: 3/7/10 EMA, stochastics, and MACD. Apply also the 50 and 200 EMA. Check for double bottom. Check support and resistance. EOG and RSCR look best. Connie Mack - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Scott Vickery Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Applying classic Elder to current Canslim "M" Date: 17 Dec 1998 05:08:04 -0500 Thanks Tom. Walter, I did not find the series of postings that you made. I assume that they were culled from Elder's book Trading for a Living. Correct? If so, I intend to get the book soon (either for Christmas, or the next day from Amazon :) ) Scott Tom Worley wrote: > Scott, > > Try this address, should work to the limits of its capability: > > http://www.xmission.com/~mcjathan/canslim/search.html > > Tom W > > -----Original Message----- > From: Scott Vickery > To: canslim@lists.xmission.com > Date: Tuesday, December 15, 1998 9:08 PM > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Applying classic Elder to current Canslim "M" > > Hey there, > I am purusing the archive from last spring, and it is a bit tedious > this way. > > Did I see a simple search engine for the archive somewhere? Seems > like I > did, but, I do not seem to see it now. > > Scott > > At 03:43 PM 12/11/98 -0500, you wrote: > >Hello Doctor, > > > >You can access the archives at the following address: > > > >http://www.xmission.com/~mcjathan/cgi/lwgate.cgi/CANSLIM/ > > > >My series from the spring is in there. I don't have the volume > >numbers available, but will try to dig out the information when > >I have some time. In the interim if you want to find them, > >look for keywords: "Elder" and "Triple Screen". > > > >One other note: If the MACD-histogram display is hard > >to read or ambiguous on the computer screen, > >readers should print out the Bigchart charts on hardcopy. > >I find them far clearer on paper. This applies to my > >example of the Nasdaq index chart. > > > >Happy trading, > > > >Walter. > > > >John Adair, M.D. wrote: > > > >> Sounds good. can you tell me how to get into the archives for a > year > >> ago. > >> John Adair > >> > >> Walter Stock wrote: > >> > >> > When trying to decipher "M", I concentrate on three > >> > things (ok, ok, I admit I pay attention to lots > >> > of economic "noise" too). > >> > > >> > Anyway the three are: > >> > 1) WON's follow-through and distribution signals > >> > according to HTMMIS and his IBD series. > >> > 2) Market psychology (see IBD Thursday editions > >> > for sentiment indicators). > >> > 3) Dr. Alexander Elder's Triple Screen > >> > > >> > If you are using triple screen with the S&P 500 or > >> > Nasdaq indices this year, you are making substantial money. > >> > > >> > Go to Bigcharts and pull up a Nasdaq chart using > >> > the following parameters: > >> > > >> > Symbol: Nasdaq > >> > Time: 1 year > >> > Frequency: Weekly > >> > Lower indicator: MACD > >> > Leave the rest of the fields blank. > >> > > >> > Remember that these are the correct settings for an > >> > intermediate-term Canslim-style trader. > >> > > >> > Following this first screen alone, and looking for initial > >> > MACD-histogram upticks for entry into the market, > >> > this would have been your "M" schedule for the year: > >> > > >> > In: Last week of December 97 > >> > Out: 1st week April 98 > >> > > >> > In: 3rd week June > >> > Out: 3rd week July > >> > > >> > In: 2nd week Sept > >> > Out: 4th week Sept > >> > > >> > In: 2nd week October > >> > We are still in today and will exit with the first downtick > >> > in the MACD-histogram. More cautious triple-screeners > >> > will already be taking profits and exiting weaker stocks. > >> > ( I have already cut back to 30% invested.) > >> > > >> > I don't think you ask for much better "M" results for > >> > this year. Then again, Elder's approach works best in > >> > the kind of trending markets we have been in. > >> > (So don't fall in love with just one bloody indicator.) > >> > > >> > Newbies interested in applying this to individual stocks > >> > should look up my series from last spring in the archives > >> > (especially the applications using KEA and other stocks). > >> > The full triple screen is applied there in some detail. > >> > > >> > Hope this helps, > >> > > >> > Walter Stock > >> > Oakville, ON, Canada > >> > > >> > - > >> > >> - > > > > > > > > > >- > > > > > > - > > - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: rolatzi Subject: [CANSLIM] Not CANSLIM: the Market Date: 17 Dec 1998 09:04:37 -0800 (PST) The market has spoken today. It suppports the bombing of Iraq and doesn't want to see Clinton impeached :-). Best wishes for happy and prosperous holiday to you all. Ciao, rolatzi _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Tim Fisher Subject: [CANSLIM] LHSG b/o Date: 17 Dec 1998 13:23:44 -0800 LHSG broke out of a flat base today (not any CANSLIM formation), up >10% on 1.X ADV. XLSW also broke out of an HTF-like formation. This one is marginal; LHSG has great fundies. IMRS has great fundies and broke out of a declining chart, again not a CANSLIM formation. Would like to see some more M opinions. I am still holding my cash. What are the rest of you doing? Tim Fisher Ore-Rock-On and Pacific Fishery Biologists WWW Sites Tim@OreRockOn.com WWW: http://OreRockOn.com See naked fish and rocks! - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Patrick Wahl" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] LHSG b/o Date: 17 Dec 1998 19:18:19 -0800 Date sent: Thu, 17 Dec 1998 13:23:44 -0800 > Would like to see some more M opinions. I am still holding my cash. What > are the rest of you doing? My market opinions usually aren't worth the electrons they are written with (something like that) but I am in the market, looking to buy more stuff. I can't figure out much more than market direction, and it seems to be up, so I am in. Many breakouts over the last few weeks, more than I can buy. Today, SNRZ looked like it might be ready to make a move. Also, NTAP moved out of a very short base. Finally, MMGR settled a Y2K lawsuit yesterday and moved up today, I think the buy point is 30, it is still a bit short of that point, but close. - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Frank V. Wolynski" Subject: [CANSLIM] Sentiment from 90 & 91 Date: 17 Dec 1998 06:51:06 -0500 Hope the formatting isn't messed up. |Investors Intelligence |Market Vane |AAII Index Date | Bulls Bears Correct| Bulls | Bulls Bears Neutral| 01/01/90 | 50.8% 31.4% 17.8% | 57% | 35% 34% 31% | 01/08/90 | 49.6% 37.2% 13.2% | 57% | 40% 30% 30% | 01/15/90 | 49.1% 36.9% 14.0% | 59% | 45% 17% 38% | 01/22/90 | 46.5% 35.1% 18.4% | 50% | 31% 20% 49% | 01/29/90 | 39.3% 44.6% 16.1% | 43% | 24% 40% 36% | 02/05/90 | 32.1% 54.5% 13.4% | 42% | 15% 48% 37% | 02/12/90 | 29.9% 57.3% 12.8% | 47% | 19% 51% 30% | 02/19/90 | 30.8% 57.3% 11.9% | 42% | 23% 34% 43% | 02/26/90 | 30.8% 56.4% 12.8% | 46% | 24% 38% 38% | 03/05/90 | 34.5% 53.4% 12.1% | 51% | 21% 42% 37% | 03/12/90 | 36.2% 52.6% 11.2% | 54% | 22% 38% 42% | 03/19/90 | 36.6% 48.2% 15.2% | 52% | 25% 40% 35% | 03/26/90 | 39.8% 47.8% 12.4% | 54% | 37% 24% 39% | 04/02/90 | 43.0% 44.7% 12.3% | 53% | 34% 31% 35% | 04/09/90 | 42.5% 46.0% 11.5% | 57% | 38% 25% 37% | 04/16/90 | 43.9% 43.0% 13.1% | 59% | 27% 17% 56% | 04/23/90 | 44.6% 42.7% 12.7% | 56% | 34% 23% 43% | 04/30/90 | 38.6% 46.5% 14.9% | 53% | 28% 37% 35% | 05/07/90 | 33.3% 49.6% 17.1% | 51% | 20% 45% 35% | 05/14/90 | 34.2% 48.2% 17.6% | 51% | 28% 34% 38% | 05/21/90 | 35.4% 47.8% 16.8% | 58% | 37% 28% 35% | 05/28/90 | 40.9% 45.5% 13.6% | 59% | 39% 29% 32% | 06/04/90 | 45.5% 41.1% 13.4% | 62% | 37% 35% 28% | 06/11/90 | 47.8% 35.4% 16.8% | 58% | 35% 30% 35% | 06/18/90 | 46.1% 33.9% 20.0% | 57% | 43% 25% 32% | 06/25/90 | 47.3% 33.9% 18.8% | 54% | 34% 34% 32% | 07/02/90 | 43.6% 37.6% 18.8% | 50% | 31% 38% 31% | 07/09/90 | 45.8% 35.0% 19.2% | 50% | 28% 38% 34% | 07/16/90 | 45.2% 34.7% 20.1% | 55% | 40% 30% 30% | 07/23/90 | 48.4% 33.1% 18.5% | 59% | 28% 38% 34% | 07/30/90 | 49.6% 34.1% 16.3% | 55% | 52% 24% 24% | 08/06/90 | 44.8% 39.2% 16.0% | 54% | 26% 46% 28% | 08/13/90 | 37.6% 45.6% 16.8% | 45% | 25% 54% 21% | 08/20/90 | 34.1% 48.4% 17.5% | 48% | 18% 59% 23% | 08/27/90 | 33.1% 48.0% 18.9% | 44% | 25% 51% 24% | 09/03/90 | 33.9% 48.8% 17.3% | 49% | 23% 61% 16% | 09/10/90 | 29.1% 52.0% 18.9% | 51% | 33% 49% 18% | 09/17/90 | 29.6% 56.0% 14.4% | 53% | 16% 51% 33% | 09/24/90 | 27.9% 55.7% 16.4% | 51% | 13% 56% 31% | 10/01/90 | 28.4% 55.3% 16.3% | 48% | 26% 54% 20% | 10/08/90 | 30.3% 51.7% 18.0% | 51% | 15% 59% 26% | 10/15/90 | 32.2% 53.7% 14.1% | 51% | 21% 52% 27% | 10/22/90 | 30.8% 55.8% 13.4% | 43% | 13% 67% 20% | 10/29/90 | 33.3% 52.5% 14.2% | 45% | 23% 58% 19% | 11/05/90 | 36.1% 51.3% 12.6% | 48% | 20% 44% 36% | 11/12/90 | 40.0% 50.0% 10.0% | 50% | 20% 48% 32% | 11/19/90 | 39.8% 49.2% 11.0% | 45% | 12% 55% 33% | 11/26/90 | 40.0% 47.5% 12.5% | 48% | 16% 47% 37% | 12/03/90 | 41.8% 47.5% 10.7% | 47% | 22% 45% 33% | 12/10/90 | 41.4% 50.0% 86.0% | 45% | 26% 41% 33% | 12/17/90 | 40.5% 47.4% 12.1% | 49% | 31% 38% 31% | 12/24/90 | 41.3% 45.9% 12.8% | 40% | 16% 50% 34% | 12/31/90 | 42.6% 43.5% 13.9% | 40% | 30% 40% 30% | 01/07/91 | 43.5% 45.4% 11.1% | 44% | 31% 30% 39% | 01/14/91 | 39.8% 46.6% 13.6% | 41% | 22% 48% 30% | 01/21/91 | 34.5% 52.1% 13.4% | 39% | 22% 51% 27% | 01/28/91 | 33.6% 54.3% 12.1% | 46% | 25% 50% 25% | 02/04/91 | 37.1% 49.1% 13.8% | 47% | 29% 42% 29% | 02/11/91 | 46.7% 41.7% 11.6% | 53% | 36% 36% 28% | 02/18/91 | 51.3% 36.1% 12.6% | 61% | 46% 24% 30% | 02/25/91 | 57.0% 32.5% 10.5% | 60% | 57% 23% 20% | 03/04/91 | 58.6% 29.3% 12.1% | 58% | 50% 32% 18% | 03/11/91 | 57.8% 27.6% 14.6% | 60% | 50% 29% 21% | 03/18/91 | 55.1% 26.3% 18.6% | 59% | 55% 23% 22% | 03/25/91 | 54.2% 23.8% 22.0% | 61% | 42% 27% 31% | 04/01/91 | 50.4% 24.8% 24.8% | 59% | 47% 25% 28% | 04/08/91 | 49.6% 24.4% 26.0% | 59% | 58% 20% 22% | 04/15/91 | 53.9% 23.9% 22.2% | 57% | 43% 25% 32% | 04/22/91 | 56.0% 24.1% 19.9% | 57% | 39% 22% 39% | 04/29/91 | 55.5% 23.1% 21.4% | 60% | 55% 17% 28% | 05/06/91 | 54.4% 23.7% 21.9% | 54% | 39% 28% 33% | 05/13/91 | 48.2% 28.1% 23.7% | 52% | 38% 28% 34% | 05/20/91 | 42.6% 27.8% 29.6% | 50% | 42% 26% 32% | 05/27/91 | 43.0% 28.9% 28.1% | 54% | 38% 23% 39% | 06/03/91 | 38.8% 28.4% 32.8% | 52% | 42% 23% 35% | 06/10/91 | 39.5% 26.3% 34.2% | 52% | 46% 17% 37% | 06/17/91 | 50.5% 27.5% 22.0% | 51% | 47% 22% 31% | 06/24/91 | 43.0% 28.9% 28.1% | 48% | 44% 16% 40% | 07/01/91 | 51.0% 24.5% 24.5% | 39% | 28% 35% 37% | 07/08/91 | 43.1% 26.6% 30.3% | 41% | 28% 33% 39% | 07/15/91 | 40.0% 30.9% 29.1% | 41% | 41% 20% 39% | 07/22/91 | 39.8% 33.3% 26.9% | 46% | 27% 22% 51% | 07/29/91 | 39.5% 33.9% 26.6% | 47% | 35% 23% 42% | 08/05/91 | 42.6% 36.1% 21.3% | 45% | 33% 31% 36% | 08/12/91 | 41.5% 36.0% 22.5% | 42% | 26% 29% 45% | 08/19/91 | 47.4% 32.5% 20.1% | 46% | 37% 30% 33% | 08/26/91 | 47.8% 33.1% 19.1% | 39% | 32% 32% 36% | 09/02/91 | 49.6% 32.1% 18.3% | 39% | 41% 19% 40% | 09/09/91 | 51.8% 28.9% 19.3% | 40% | 36% 33% 31% | 09/16/91 | 48.2% 32.5% 19.3% | 39% | 43% 18% 39% | 09/23/91 | 41.9% 32.5% 25.6% | 36% | 32% 20% 48% | 09/30/91 | 41.2% 33.3% 25.5% | 38% | 31% 31% 38% | 10/07/91 | 40.7% 31.5% 27.8% | 40% | 35% 35% 30% | 10/14/91 | 40.6% 28.8% 30.6% | 32% | 39% 24% 37% | 10/21/91 | 39.1% 30.9% 30.0% | 38% | 30% 39% 31% | 10/28/91 | 46.4% 30.0% 23.6% | 44% | 31% 33% 36% | 11/04/91 | 48.7% 31.9% 19.4% | 52% | 52% 36% 12% | 11/11/91 | 49.1% 31.9% 19.0% | 42% | 32% 32% 36% | 11/18/91 | 48.2% 31.6% 20.2% | 45% | 38% 29% 33% | 11/25/91 | 49.1% 30.9% 20.0% | 40% | 48% 20% 32% | 12/02/91 | 46.9% 34.5% 18.6% | 49% | 33% 40% 27% | 12/09/91 | 36.9% 39.7% 23.4% | 36% | 23% 45% 32% | 12/16/91 | 40.7% 38.9% 20.4% | 35% | 33% 31% 36% | 12/23/91 | 40.7% 39.8% 19.5% | 36% | 36% 34% 30% | 12/30/91 | 38.4% 41.1% 20.5% | 36% | 39% 32% 29% | - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: FBNAirPlt@aol.com Subject: [CANSLIM] Acc/Dis Numbers Date: 17 Dec 1998 22:31:35 EST Here art the latest Acc/Dis numbers: date A B C D E a+b/a-e %e 62-75% <4% Ideal Range 12/9/98 1241 2983 1260 874 323 63% 5% 12/10/98 1213 2978 1279 884 329 63% 5% 12/11/98 1204 2959 1279 858 341 63% 5% 12/14/98 1140 2914 1304 948 357 61% 5% 12/15/98 1093 2896 1304 1016 355 60% 5% 12/16/98 1019 2757 1342 1089 405 57% 6% 12/17/98 1009 2790 1347 1054 420 57% 6% Spreedsheet numbers: date,A,B,C,D,E,a+b/a-e,%e, ,,,,,,62-75%,<4%,Ideal Range 12/8/98,1212,3023,1250,871,330,63%,5% 12/9/98,1241,2983,1260,874,323,63%,5% 12/10/98,1213,2978,1279,884,329,63%,5% 12/11/98,1204,2959,1279,858,341,63%,5% 12/14/98,1140,2914,1304,948,357,61%,5% 12/15/98,1093,2896,1304,1016,355,60%,5% 12/16/98,1019,2757,1342,1089,405,57%,6% 12/17/98,1009,2790,1347,1054,420,57%,6% Robert - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: dbphoenix Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Initial Market Decline May Be on Lower Volume Date: 17 Dec 1998 19:55:38 -0800 (PST) <> I don't exactly fear it, but I'm going to be away from my computer for most of the next two weeks and I really don't want to spend my vacation checking on market activity. Since everything but the Naz is still in a downtrend, new highs continue to decline, new lows continue to increase, volume is still unimpressive, etc., etc., I'd rather just stay in cash until I have time to sit and watch all of it. When everything seems confused, perhaps the single best question to ask is whether the market is pushing you forward from behind or pushing you backward from ahead. There's a lot of roiling going on, a lot of tentativeness, a lot of misdirection. I see little difference between conditions now and conditions in July, and if we are to spend another year struggling for every point, I'd rather spend the next couple of weeks refining my non-canslim strategy and getting ready for the new year. The big money since September has been made by understanding trends and trendlines, and price-volume relationships, not by understanding traditional CS and HGS patterns. I want to make sure both barrels of my shotgun are loaded. --Db == "Lessons are repeated until they are learned." http://home.talkcity.com/MoneySt/dbphoenix/ _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Walter Stock Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Applying classic Elder to current Canslim "M" Date: 18 Dec 1998 06:19:07 -0500 Hi Scott, No, my postings were more about applying Elder's work in real life. They included examples of real trades that I had made. I will try to dig them out in the new year when I have some time. If you want to try Triple Screen for your own trades you really should study the book first, so I think you are on the right track. Try to find the study guide too. It has a lot of practical examples. Walter Scott Vickery wrote: > Thanks Tom. > > Walter, I did not find the series of postings that you made. I assume > that they were culled from Elder's book Trading for a Living. Correct? > If so, I intend to get the book soon (either for Christmas, or the next > day from Amazon :) ) > > Scott > > Tom Worley wrote: > > > Scott, > > > > Try this address, should work to the limits of its capability: > > > > http://www.xmission.com/~mcjathan/canslim/search.html > > > > Tom W - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Walter Stock Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Not CANSLIM: the Market and the Media Date: 18 Dec 1998 07:08:08 -0500 Rolatzi, I don't think "the market" supports bombing or faults impeachment one way or the other. I think at present that there is simply relief that the situation is not even worse. As usual, investors and others are ill-served by the American media. Regarding Iraq, there hasn't been this much anti-American feeling here in Canada since Vietnam. Virtually nobody here supports what Clinton is doing to Iraq. Not one newspaper column, not one television show, not one talk-show host, not the political leadership. When Madeleine Allbright, Clinton's Secretary of State goes on TV and says that Canada and other nations are offering broad support, nobody in the American media challenges the lie. Which major countries support Clinton's adventure in Iraq? Britain. That's the whole list. Clinton and his ilk aren't just lying to Americans anymore. Happy holidays, Walter Oakville, ON Canada rolatzi wrote: > The market has spoken today. > > It suppports the bombing of Iraq and doesn't want to see Clinton > impeached :-). > > Best wishes for happy and prosperous holiday to you all. > Ciao, > rolatzi - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] Interesting improvement Date: 18 Dec 1998 07:53:14 -0500 Noted this morning a measurable improvement in both the 10 day ma on up down volume as well as in the over sold conditions. Present on both Nasdaq and NYSE. Worth paying attention to for the short term. I'm better than 50% cash right now, and these signals are not enough to make me tempted to part with a penny of it just yet, but will keep watching. Tom W - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Johan Van Houtven Subject: [CANSLIM] Tim's inquiry about 'M' Date: 18 Dec 1998 11:24:02 +0100 At 01:23 PM 17/12/98 -0800, you wrote: >LHSG broke out of a flat base today (not any CANSLIM formation), up >10% on >1.X ADV. XLSW also broke out of an HTF-like formation. This one is >marginal; LHSG has great fundies. IMRS has great fundies and broke out of a >declining chart, again not a CANSLIM formation. > >Would like to see some more M opinions. I am still holding my cash. What >are the rest of you doing? Tim, I'd also like to know what other have been and are doing. My viewpoint/opinion (not facts): We have had a correction/consolidation or whatever you would choose to call it. That is good. Especially after the big run we have enjoyed the passed few months. The NASDAQ and NDX held up best, during the 'correction'. So I'm mostly interested in big cap tech stocks for now. Many good CS/HGS stocks broke out and even went to new 52W highs in the last few days. Sentiment: Enough fear was brought back into the markets the last few weeks for me to start think about buying again. Irak / impeachment / South American economies / Dow component earnings worries / and the old faithfulls are also still there: Japan / Asia and the Soviet Union. FWIW (nothing of course) I'm 111% invested. All the best, -- Johan Van Houtven - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Joe Scott" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Tim's inquiry about 'M' Date: 18 Dec 1998 08:26:12 -0500 >>I'd also like to know what other have been and are doing. <<<< I sold some of my weaker positions for small profits during the third week of Nov. I was also stopped out for a loss on two that I had entered too late in that run-up.. I bought them too close to resistance in the Dow and Nasdaq.. and just didn't have enough cushion to not get stopped out for an 8% loss.. My strong stocks took a dip, but pretty much came right back. There were a few of those that I had to give quite a bit of room, but they bounced right back, and have been trading sideways, to up during this correction .. I even added to one that was just running up to fast to be able to add to during the run-up.. Invested about 110% at this time. Watching closely, but so far even with all the turmoil the market seems to be holding up well,, consolidating gains, volume looks ok,, hopefully we stay sideways and don't have another leg down.. joe - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: rolatzi Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Not CANSLIM: the Market and the Media Date: 18 Dec 1998 06:41:57 -0800 (PST) Walter, I was afraid that my irony would be too subtle and misconstrued. Sorry. Ciao, rolatzi ---Walter Stock wrote: > > Rolatzi, > > I don't think "the market" supports bombing or faults > impeachment one way or the other. I think at present that > there is simply relief that the situation is not even worse. > > As usual, investors and others are ill-served by the > American media. Regarding Iraq, there hasn't been this much > anti-American feeling here in Canada since Vietnam. > Virtually nobody here supports what Clinton is doing to Iraq. > Not one newspaper column, not one television show, not one > talk-show host, not the political leadership. > > When Madeleine Allbright, Clinton's Secretary of State goes > on TV and says that Canada and other nations are offering broad > support, nobody in the American media challenges the lie. > Which major countries support Clinton's adventure in Iraq? > Britain. That's the whole list. > > Clinton and his ilk aren't just lying to Americans anymore. > > Happy holidays, > > Walter > Oakville, ON Canada > > > rolatzi wrote: > > > The market has spoken today. > > > > It suppports the bombing of Iraq and doesn't want to see Clinton > > impeached :-). > > > > Best wishes for happy and prosperous holiday to you all. > > Ciao, > > rolatzi > > > > > - > > _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Joe Scott" Subject: [CANSLIM] ABH Date: 18 Dec 1998 10:09:03 -0500 Anyone have a views on ABH ?? RS 98,, EPS 92,, Earnings past 4 quarters have been steady, difficult to go by the percentages because of small numbers last year.. 36 % 5 yr growth est. 50% earnings growth for next year,, 0 debt.. New industry, or one coming into its own anyway.. Anyone's ideas would be appreciated,, I'm thinking of taking a position,, and it has been difficult to pick an entry, I would take my chances now after it put in that small base at 14,, it is a little extended but not to.. ???? joe - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: TM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Applying classic Elder to current Canslim "M" Date: 18 Dec 1998 07:29:53 -0800 (PST) Scott, I am not sure that Walter would agree with how I characterized his remarks, but I made a worksheet back then that has the components as I saw them from the board comments. Again, in my Elder newbiness, I could be completely off, but this is what I have. I have recently gotten the workbook and am working my way through Elder with the workbook and will be adding to or changing my worksheet when I get there. Right now I'm just finishing chapter 4. Newbie-Triple Screen via Elder using MACD and SloSto 1. Screen One: Using Bigcharts: MACD setting, (12,26,9) could use (5, 34,7) year (time setting) _________ view by weeks. Uptick in vertical bar _______ Relationship to zero line : above (weaker) _______ below (stronger)________ at_________. # of confirmations: ______ 2. Screen Two: (5%K, 3%D) Slow Stochastics setting (5 days). View by hours Has Slo-sto gone to or below 30 in this time period _________________. 3. Screen Three: Set the price. Choose the highest price the stock sold for during the past day __________, -1day ___________, -2day______________,-3day_____________, -4 day____________,. Add 1 tick to the price. That is the buy price. Assumption: if stock meets your buy price you are in; otherwise you do not buy. For Intermediate trading: Use weekly MACD by days Use Daily SloSto by hours For Short-Term trading Use Daily MACD by hours Use Intraday Slo-Sto by quarter hours ---Scott Vickery wrote: > > Thanks Tom. > > Walter, I did not find the series of postings that you made. I assume > that they were culled from Elder's book Trading for a Living. Correct? > If so, I intend to get the book soon (either for Christmas, or the next > day from Amazon :) ) > > Scott > > Tom Worley wrote: > > > Scott, > > > > Try this address, should work to the limits of its capability: > > > > http://www.xmission.com/~mcjathan/canslim/search.html > > > > Tom W > > > > -----Original Message----- > > From: Scott Vickery > > To: canslim@lists.xmission.com > > Date: Tuesday, December 15, 1998 9:08 PM > > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Applying classic Elder to current Canslim "M" > > > > Hey there, > > I am purusing the archive from last spring, and it is a bit tedious > > this way. > > > > Did I see a simple search engine for the archive somewhere? Seems > > like I > > did, but, I do not seem to see it now. > > > > Scott > > > > At 03:43 PM 12/11/98 -0500, you wrote: > > >Hello Doctor, > > > > > >You can access the archives at the following address: > > > > > >http://www.xmission.com/~mcjathan/cgi/lwgate.cgi/CANSLIM/ > > > > > >My series from the spring is in there. I don't have the volume > > >numbers available, but will try to dig out the information when > > >I have some time. In the interim if you want to find them, > > >look for keywords: "Elder" and "Triple Screen". > > > > > >One other note: If the MACD-histogram display is hard > > >to read or ambiguous on the computer screen, > > >readers should print out the Bigchart charts on hardcopy. > > >I find them far clearer on paper. This applies to my > > >example of the Nasdaq index chart. > > > > > >Happy trading, > > > > > >Walter. > > > > > >John Adair, M.D. wrote: > > > > > >> Sounds good. can you tell me how to get into the archives for a > > year > > >> ago. > > >> John Adair > > >> > > >> Walter Stock wrote: > > >> > > >> > When trying to decipher "M", I concentrate on three > > >> > things (ok, ok, I admit I pay attention to lots > > >> > of economic "noise" too). > > >> > > > >> > Anyway the three are: > > >> > 1) WON's follow-through and distribution signals > > >> > according to HTMMIS and his IBD series. > > >> > 2) Market psychology (see IBD Thursday editions > > >> > for sentiment indicators). > > >> > 3) Dr. Alexander Elder's Triple Screen > > >> > > > >> > If you are using triple screen with the S&P 500 or > > >> > Nasdaq indices this year, you are making substantial money. > > >> > > > >> > Go to Bigcharts and pull up a Nasdaq chart using > > >> > the following parameters: > > >> > > > >> > Symbol: Nasdaq > > >> > Time: 1 year > > >> > Frequency: Weekly > > >> > Lower indicator: MACD > > >> > Leave the rest of the fields blank. > > >> > > > >> > Remember that these are the correct settings for an > > >> > intermediate-term Canslim-style trader. > > >> > > > >> > Following this first screen alone, and looking for initial > > >> > MACD-histogram upticks for entry into the market, > > >> > this would have been your "M" schedule for the year: > > >> > > > >> > In: Last week of December 97 > > >> > Out: 1st week April 98 > > >> > > > >> > In: 3rd week June > > >> > Out: 3rd week July > > >> > > > >> > In: 2nd week Sept > > >> > Out: 4th week Sept > > >> > > > >> > In: 2nd week October > > >> > We are still in today and will exit with the first downtick > > >> > in the MACD-histogram. More cautious triple-screeners > > >> > will already be taking profits and exiting weaker stocks. > > >> > ( I have already cut back to 30% invested.) > > >> > > > >> > I don't think you ask for much better "M" results for > > >> > this year. Then again, Elder's approach works best in > > >> > the kind of trending markets we have been in. > > >> > (So don't fall in love with just one bloody indicator.) > > >> > > > >> > Newbies interested in applying this to individual stocks > > >> > should look up my series from last spring in the archives > > >> > (especially the applications using KEA and other stocks). > > >> > The full triple screen is applied there in some detail. > > >> > > > >> > Hope this helps, > > >> > > > >> > Walter Stock > > >> > Oakville, ON, Canada > > >> > > > >> > - > > >> > > >> - > > > > > > > > > > > > > > >- > > > > > > > > > > - > > > > - > > > - > > _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Craig Griffin Subject: [CANSLIM] M Date: 18 Dec 1998 10:35:19 -0500 If we hold above about 2052 on the NASDAQ on a closing basis, then I would say that the index has had a breakout from the cup with handle it has formed. What it shows (in this case) is that the largest (capitalization) stocks are continuing to lead the index higher. This is a positive sign for the market (not as significant as a breakout on a stock, however). The market continues to show underlying strength and resilience here in the pre-holiday season. I would read a close above 2052 as a confirmation signal that the bull trend is continuing. (Given the chart pattern of the NASDAQ, it is considerably more significant than just any day when the index hits a new high.) It would be better to see a longer handle with a huge volume surge on the liftoff, of course. But you take what you get. We may end with a strong volume day today at least - so far it is going at a 1 billion shares run-rate, but that may change later. The big cap tech stocks like AOL, LU, MSFT, WCOM, INTC do not seem to want to correct much. I think the internet is driving the PC business and the telecom business in a more powerful way than many expected. I am sort of surprised that DELL has not joined the party yet. Worth watching is that certain chip stocks like MU and TXN that continue to act well. Happy Holidays to everybody. See you after Christmas. Best Regards, Craig - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Dan Cash Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Not CANSLIM: the Market and the Media Date: 18 Dec 1998 07:37:44 -0800 Morning Walter, Regarding your second paragraph particularly: Are any overtly opposing the U.S. actions? IS there anti-American sentiment being expressed in your media? Interesting and thought provoking posting! Walter Stock wrote: > Rolatzi, > > I don't think "the market" supports bombing or faults > impeachment one way or the other. I think at present that > there is simply relief that the situation is not even worse. > > As usual, investors and others are ill-served by the > American media. Regarding Iraq, there hasn't been this much > anti-American feeling here in Canada since Vietnam. > Virtually nobody here supports what Clinton is doing to Iraq. > Not one newspaper column, not one television show, not one > talk-show host, not the political leadership. > > When Madeleine Allbright, Clinton's Secretary of State goes > on TV and says that Canada and other nations are offering broad > support, nobody in the American media challenges the lie. > Which major countries support Clinton's adventure in Iraq? > Britain. That's the whole list. > > Clinton and his ilk aren't just lying to Americans anymore. > > Happy holidays, > > Walter > Oakville, ON Canada > > rolatzi wrote: > > > The market has spoken today. > > > > It suppports the bombing of Iraq and doesn't want to see Clinton > > impeached :-). > > > > Best wishes for happy and prosperous holiday to you all. > > Ciao, > > rolatzi > > - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Craig Griffin Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] M Date: 18 Dec 1998 11:01:45 -0500 At 10:35 AM 12/18/98 -0500, I wrote: >If we hold above about 2052 on the NASDAQ on a closing basis, then I would >say that the index has had a breakout from the cup with handle it has >formed. One other thought, if we have big volume and close flat or down for the day, today (another distribution day), then that would not be so hot. But, even in that case, it may simply be a sign that the "handle" will continue. Or it could turn out to be more ominous, of course. The market sort of seems to be churning through this "handle", but there has been a bit of a tail-off in volume. Anyway, a close up more than 1/2% or 3/4% today on the NASDAQ would be a positive signal (IMHO). Craig - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: rolatzi Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] M Date: 18 Dec 1998 08:35:50 -0800 (PST) Keep i m;ind that today is expiration day on December options. I'm not sure but I think it is a triple witching day which can lead to big volume and volatility and not necessarily reveal the true sentiment of the market. ciao, rolatzi ---Craig Griffin wrote: > > At 10:35 AM 12/18/98 -0500, I wrote: > >If we hold above about 2052 on the NASDAQ on a closing basis, then I would > >say that the index has had a breakout from the cup with handle it has > >formed. > > One other thought, if we have big volume and close flat or down for the > day, today (another distribution day), then that would not be so hot. But, > even in that case, it may simply be a sign that the "handle" will continue. > Or it could turn out to be more ominous, of course. > > The market sort of seems to be churning through this "handle", but there > has been a bit of a tail-off in volume. Anyway, a close up more than 1/2% > or 3/4% today on the NASDAQ would be a positive signal (IMHO). > > Craig > > - > > _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Craig Griffin Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] M Date: 18 Dec 1998 11:40:18 -0500 At 08:35 AM 12/18/98 -0800, you wrote: >Keep i m;ind that today is expiration day on December options. I'm >not sure but I think it is a triple witching day which can lead to big >volume and volatility and not necessarily reveal the true sentiment of >the market. >ciao, >rolatzi Thanks, Rolatzi. I had forgotten that aspect of today's trading. I wonder to what degree that should affect how we read today's action? Any opinions out there? I never have heard / read WON's take on expiration trading. Best Regards, Craig - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Joe Scott" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] M Date: 18 Dec 1998 11:55:09 -0500 >>>. I wonder to what degree that should affect how we read today's action? Any opinions out there? I never have heard / read WON's take on expiration trading.<<< I don't claim to know much, or anything about this "triple witching" business,, but I have heard from several sources that this has become much less of a market jitter in today's markets, and judging from the past few it seems to me that may be true.. joe - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Craig Griffin Subject: [CANSLIM] (Off Topic) GE Breakout Date: 18 Dec 1998 12:15:23 -0500 GE breakout in progress. Too large my orders of magnitude for CANSLIM. - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Johan Van Houtven Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] M Date: 18 Dec 1998 21:57:55 +0100 At 11:01 AM 18-12-98 -0500, you wrote: >One other thought, if we have big volume and close flat or down for the >day, today (another distribution day), then that would not be so hot. But, >even in that case, it may simply be a sign that the "handle" will continue. > Or it could turn out to be more ominous, of course. > >The market sort of seems to be churning through this "handle", but there >has been a bit of a tail-off in volume. Anyway, a close up more than 1/2% >or 3/4% today on the NASDAQ would be a positive signal (IMHO). Up more than 1% on increased volume. 4th day of the ralley. I'd call this a follow-through day. Thank you, 'M'. (BTW, no matter what all those foreign critics are saying... this 'critic' still thinks the US is the place to be... especially it's 'M'. B^) Happy holidays to all of you, Johan - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "S Menon" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] M - Options Date: 18 Dec 1998 18:51:27 PST I am interested in knowing why experts like Craig are not using options to hedge the portfolio or generate income. Appreciate everybody's thoughts - positive and negative views. Thanks. SMenon PS: Yes, today was a triple witching day >Date: Fri, 18 Dec 1998 11:40:18 -0500 >To: canslim@lists.xmission.com >From: Craig Griffin >Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] M >Reply-To: canslim@lists.xmission.com > >At 08:35 AM 12/18/98 -0800, you wrote: >>Keep i m;ind that today is expiration day on December options. I'm >>not sure but I think it is a triple witching day which can lead to big >>volume and volatility and not necessarily reveal the true sentiment of >>the market. >>ciao, >>rolatzi > >Thanks, Rolatzi. I had forgotten that aspect of today's trading. I wonder >to what degree that should affect how we read today's action? Any opinions >out there? I never have heard / read WON's take on expiration trading. > >Best Regards, >Craig > >- > > ______________________________________________________ Get Your Private, Free Email at http://www.hotmail.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] M Date: 19 Dec 1998 00:43:32 -0500 Once upon a time, to share ancient history (defined today as anything over a few months), triple witching expiration marked a time of extreme volatility. However, over the past several years, the mkts have redefined "extreme volatility", while at the same time the options players decided they didn't like this, and would start adjusting their options portfolio on Thursday. Gradually, Thursday before options expiration became more volatile, so the conservative ones decided they would move their trades to Wednesday, and accept whatever profits or losses they had at that time. Now, behold, we have an entire week or more of options related volatility before every expiration period. We are not limited to just the "triple witching" when currency, equity and index options all expire on the same day. We can do this every month around the third week of the month!! Such fun! And we can really confuse the mkt with how we trade the underlying equities, currencies or indexes in hopes of manipulating the mkts to close on Friday in or out of the money. Tom W -----Original Message----- >>>. I wonder to what degree that should affect how we read today's action? Any opinions out there? I never have heard / read WON's take on expiration trading.<<< I don't claim to know much, or anything about this "triple witching" business,, but I have heard from several sources that this has become much less of a market jitter in today's markets, and judging from the past few it seems to me that may be true.. joe - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] DGO Weekly Highs Date: 19 Dec 1998 08:19:51 -0500 No surprise, nrs down this week. Of all the stocks in the DG books, only 223 made new highs, and of them 121 had both RS and EPS of 80 or better. Saw several buyouts in this list causing the new high, so be careful and do your homework. QTRN, PLCE, ARMHY, ACS, MAI, VOD, EMPI, ANF, INTV, SLR, CMED, AMWD, CPN, ZQK, BDY, SALT, FPIC, IK, COST, ORCL, SDLI, CTL, SPLS, FDS, CTAS, SWY, RESM, WAT, CPRT, JP, MTD, AHO, CBUK, ECL, CPWR, WMT, DNEX, MDT, FRE, WATR, PVN, CSCO, AIB, KNGT, AEG, NOKA, HH, CEFT, UVSGA, EWB, LEVL, LSTR, SDG, PROX, PRFN, FIC, NSIT, HD, DORL, LXK, TECH, MNMD, DHR, SUNW, SAH, XLSW, FNM, VSVR, DV, IBM, INSS, LLTC, T, INOC, EBAY (Ebay?? EBAY?!?!?! One of the internet rockets of the year?? Oh my god, what is canslim coming to, I can't believe it, an internet stock with an EPS of 82 and it's this year's IPO??), MTP, SAI, BK, BELFA, TGO, SPEQ, DY, RI, GDT, EFX, AVEI, BHW, CAKE, IPL, IPG, KROG, SCH, FLEX, MLM, NLCS, CPS, PBI, GE, SANM, GNTX SYK, VTSS, PLXS, ABH, MSFT, AMGN, SNRZ, NTAP, SWFT, BELFB, OCLI, SONC, CDWC, NSOL, CMVT, RCII, DDDDF, RGIS, MCRL, WCOM, SYKE. If anyone out there (yes, that includes all you lurkers) is finding anything useful out of these lists, would appreciate you letting me or the group know. As always, you're on your own for typos. Tom W - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] ABH Date: 19 Dec 1998 08:38:52 -0500 Great hold, but too extended for a fresh buy. Coming up against a tough qtr for comparison purposes, and has to do about 25 cents just to meet full year estimates, which could be a stretch for it. Minimal management ownership would make me hesitate (and did back when it came out of its base around 10, so shows what I know! - urrrggghhhhh - 80% in six weeks, drat these small caps!) Tom W -----Original Message----- Anyone have a views on ABH ?? RS 98,, EPS 92,, Earnings past 4 quarters have been steady, difficult to go by the percentages because of small numbers last year.. 36 % 5 yr growth est. 50% earnings growth for next year,, 0 debt.. New industry, or one coming into its own anyway.. Anyone's ideas would be appreciated,, I'm thinking of taking a position,, and it has been difficult to pick an entry, I would take my chances now after it put in that small base at 14,, it is a little extended but not to.. ???? joe - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] M Date: 19 Dec 1998 08:30:53 -0500 Hi Craig, Well, we got the new high on Nasdaq with increased volume on Friday. However I remain unconvinced. Granted on Naz we are seeing higher lows and now higher highs, but the volume is not there. May just be that seasonal time of year preventing the volume from confirming, however on NYSE we are still seeing lower highs and lower lows, so a marked divergence, mostly due the techs, internets esp. Just barely managed to break 800 mil shares on Naz, and 839 mil on NYSE. And the new highs/lows remains pathetic, as does the up/down volume ratios and the advance/decline ratios. I would disagree that a "rally" led and supported solely by the big cap stocks is healthy. Yes, it could lead this limited sector for some time to higher levels, but it is unlikely to generate any move in the secondary stocks or small caps, which are the ones more fitting to CANSLIM. Even with the drop in VIX on Friday, we still remain too volatile for decent CANSLIM pickings. Tom W -----Original Message----- If we hold above about 2052 on the NASDAQ on a closing basis, then I would say that the index has had a breakout from the cup with handle it has formed. What it shows (in this case) is that the largest (capitalization) stocks are continuing to lead the index higher. This is a positive sign for the market (not as significant as a breakout on a stock, however). The market continues to show underlying strength and resilience here in the pre-holiday season. I would read a close above 2052 as a confirmation signal that the bull trend is continuing. (Given the chart pattern of the NASDAQ, it is considerably more significant than just any day when the index hits a new high.) It would be better to see a longer handle with a huge volume surge on the liftoff, of course. But you take what you get. We may end with a strong volume day today at least - so far it is going at a 1 billion shares run-rate, but that may change later. The big cap tech stocks like AOL, LU, MSFT, WCOM, INTC do not seem to want to correct much. I think the internet is driving the PC business and the telecom business in a more powerful way than many expected. I am sort of surprised that DELL has not joined the party yet. Worth watching is that certain chip stocks like MU and TXN that continue to act well. Happy Holidays to everybody. See you after Christmas. Best Regards, Craig - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "John Adair, M.D." Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] LHSG b/o Date: 19 Dec 1998 17:57:48 -0600 I think the short term( 2-3)weeks may be down and provide a buying point.I have a watch list and will be watching my list for a bottom and an up tick. I will probably look at tc2000tsv and dgo. fwiw John Adair Patrick Wahl wrote: > Date sent: Thu, 17 Dec 1998 13:23:44 -0800 > To: canslim@lists.xmission.com > > > Would like to see some more M opinions. I am still holding my cash. What > > are the rest of you doing? > > My market opinions usually aren't worth the electrons they are > written with (something like that) but I am in the market, looking to > buy more stuff. I can't figure out much more than market direction, > and it seems to be up, so I am in. Many breakouts over the last > few weeks, more than I can buy. > > Today, SNRZ looked like it might be ready to make a move. Also, > NTAP moved out of a very short base. Finally, MMGR settled a > Y2K lawsuit yesterday and moved up today, I think the buy point is > 30, it is still a bit short of that point, but close. > > - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Charles Cangialosi" Subject: [CANSLIM] Short Date: 19 Dec 1998 19:34:57 -0500 This is not CANSLIM, but it is just a question about going short. Something I have never done nor do I really understand. What I think you have to do is when a stock gets to a particular price you can sell X number of shares which is borrowed from your broker. If the price then continues down you can purchase the shares to repay the broker and you get the difference. OTOH if the stock goes up you then have to purchase it for more than you sold if for to cover the short. If a stock is at 49 can you short at 48 even though the stock is not there yet? I dont know why anyone would want to do that, seems like you could put the order in at 48 if it goes it is executed if not it isn't. As a profit protection (loss protection) tool e.g.: Purchase stock at 51 stock goes to 49. Short at 49 with a stop at 51. Stop for the long purchase at 46. The stock would actually have to go to 53 to be even due to the loss on the short sale, after it is profit. OTOH if it goes down you can only loose 2 points and if it drops to 44 you are even. Does this make sense 1: is my understanding of the process correct. 2. Is this actually done or is it a bad idea. Charlie - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "james sullivan" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] DGO Weekly Highs Date: 19 Dec 1998 19:34:06 -0500 >No surprise, nrs down this week. Of all the stocks in the DG books, >only 223 made new highs, and of them 121 had both RS and EPS of 80 or >better Tom, what are "DG books"?? thanks - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: rolatzi Subject: [CANSLIM] Tracking the market indices Date: 19 Dec 1998 19:12:54 -0800 (PST) I have written a scan on QP2 to track the market indices according to the teachings of WON. I am appending to the bottom of this message the results for the last three months and would appreciate any feedback on whether it is useful, correct, etc. My criteria as I have read from WON and from our group are as follows: Bottom: close(i)>1.01*close(i-1) or close(i)>1.01*low(i) on increased volume Follow through: days 3 through 9 after bottom Reversal: open(i)>close(i-1) or high(i)>high(i-1) and close(i)colume(i-1) Compression: volume(i)> volume(i-1) close(i) Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Short Date: 19 Dec 1998 20:19:44 -0800 I've never shorted either, but hope I can answer your question. Shorting is conceptually just the reverse of going long. If you wanted to buy (go long) a stock when it broke out above a resistance, say at 50, you could set a buy stop at 50 1/8. Similarly, you may want to sell (go short) a stock if it breaks down below support, say at 50, you might set a sell short stop at 49 7/8. There are some complications with shorting that make it harder to do than buying, such as the uptick rule, broker not being able to find shares to borrow, plus having to pay any dividends to the borrowee while you are borrowing them. As for profit protection, shorting a stock that you already own causes you to no longer profit or lose by it's price movements. It used to be that you could do this if you wanted to sell the stock, but didn't want to pay capital gains taxes this year, but I believe that "loophole" has been removed. As to your example, if you enter a position, lose $2/share, add an opposing position so you are net neither long nor short, then it can go up and down and you've still got your $2/share loss. When you close either your long or short position, you will again participate in the stock's price movements. Mike -----Original Message----- Sent: Saturday, December 19, 1998 4:35 PM This is not CANSLIM, but it is just a question about going short. Something I have never done nor do I really understand. What I think you have to do is when a stock gets to a particular price you can sell X number of shares which is borrowed from your broker. If the price then continues down you can purchase the shares to repay the broker and you get the difference. OTOH if the stock goes up you then have to purchase it for more than you sold if for to cover the short. If a stock is at 49 can you short at 48 even though the stock is not there yet? I dont know why anyone would want to do that, seems like you could put the order in at 48 if it goes it is executed if not it isn't. As a profit protection (loss protection) tool e.g.: Purchase stock at 51 stock goes to 49. Short at 49 with a stop at 51. Stop for the long purchase at 46. The stock would actually have to go to 53 to be even due to the loss on the short sale, after it is profit. OTOH if it goes down you can only loose 2 points and if it drops to 44 you are even. Does this make sense 1: is my understanding of the process correct. 2. Is this actually done or is it a bad idea. Charlie - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: musicant@autobahn.org (Dan Musicant) Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Short Date: 20 Dec 1998 04:23:31 GMT On Sat, 19 Dec 1998 19:34:57 -0500, you wrote: : This is not CANSLIM, but it is just a question about going short. = Something :I have never done nor do I really understand. What I think you have to = do is :when a stock gets to a particular price you can sell X number of shares :which is borrowed from your broker. If the price then continues down you= can :purchase the shares to repay the broker and you get the difference. OTOH= if :the stock goes up you then have to purchase it for more than you sold if= for :to cover the short. : If a stock is at 49 can you short at 48 even though the stock is not = there :yet? I dont know why anyone would want to do that, seems like you could = put :the order in at 48 if it goes it is executed if not it isn't. : As a profit protection (loss protection) tool e.g.: Purchase stock at = 51 :stock goes to 49. Short at 49 with a stop at 51. Stop for the long = purchase :at 46. The stock would actually have to go to 53 to be even due to the = loss :on the short sale, after it is profit. OTOH if it goes down you can only :loose 2 points and if it drops to 44 you are even. Does this make sense = 1: :is my understanding of the process correct. 2. Is this actually done or = is :it a bad idea. : :Charlie : Your description of the shorting process is essentially correct. I have never done the type of plays you are describing here, being going long and short simultaneously, which I believe is called "shorting against the box." That strategy had some popularity until recently when (as I understand it) certain tax loopholes were closed that had made it advantageous to short against the box. I don't know how prevalent the practice is now. Dan - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: musicant@autobahn.org (Dan Musicant) Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] DGO Weekly Highs Date: 20 Dec 1998 04:26:11 GMT On Sat, 19 Dec 1998 19:34:06 -0500, you wrote: :>No surprise, nrs down this week. Of all the stocks in the DG books, :>only 223 made new highs, and of them 121 had both RS and EPS of 80 or :>better : :Tom, what are "DG books"?? : :thanks : Tom's talking about Daily Graphs, the book version as opposed to the online version. The book version has been available for quite some time, whereas the online version became available somewhat less than a year ago, though it was free in beta for quite a while. Dan - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Dan Cash Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] DGO Weekly Highs Date: 19 Dec 1998 23:43:33 -0800 Hi Tom, I take your and others who submit a list of symbols and cut and paste them into a new yahoo portfolio, look at insiders, profile and look at a few stats such as number of shares. Then since I use metastock, I cut and paste them into the Downloader a line at a time, going back and deleting related symbols that the D.L. presents, then collect the data. Then I go through and look at the indicators, and charts. I am appreciative of the quality and high standard represented by the IBD numbers profiling most presented here. To answer your question as to the value of these lists by you (and others), it is yes, they are of value to me. I do not have the resources of information and the skills to write scans nor the time to collect this kind of quality, qualified data and I depend on the largess of those of you who take the time and effort to make it available to me. So please keep posting your results if your time permits. I also want to thank those of you who take the time and extend the effort to make available to the group, the results of your scans. Dan Tom Worley wrote: > .......DDDDF, RGIS, MCRL, WCOM, SYKE. > > If anyone out there (yes, that includes all you lurkers) is finding > anything useful out of these lists, would appreciate you letting me or > the group know. > > As always, you're on your own for typos. > > Tom W > > - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] Totally (or at least mostly) non-CANSLIM Date: 20 Dec 1998 07:48:40 -0500 I know within our group membership we have a substantial number of countries represented outside the United States. I would appreciate hearing from them on how yesterday's impeachment of President Clinton is being viewed in your country. Please respond privately to me at stkguru@netside.net. Is it considered serious, or a joke? Is it seen as the end of his job, or recognized as just that charges have now been brought and it's up to the Senate to hold a trial? Is it seen as an issue of his sexual affairs, or a result of him lying under oath and to the American people? What is the local expectation on what will happen? I am also interested in global feedback on the US/UK bombing of Iraq. In particular, am interested in hearing what people think will happen now and in the future since Hussein already announced that he's not letting the UN inspectors back in, and the US announced that bombings will resume if he tries to rebuild his "weapons of mass destruction" facilities. As a side issue, I am also interested in just how many countries are represented in this group. My guess is about 20. If I get enough responses to put together a post on a global perspective of this mess, and how it may affect "M", I will provide feedback to the group. I will also post the list of countries represented among us. Tom W - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Short Date: 20 Dec 1998 08:20:11 -0500 Charlie, I will try not to duplicate what mikelu and Dan already posted. Your understanding of the concept is basically correct, however you should understand that a short sell is not the same as a normal sell. The big difference is that you must meet an uptick rule, which varys according to the exchange. On NYSE and AMEX, the uptick rule simply requires that the latest trade must be higher than the preceding one, then short sell orders can be executed until you have a downtick. Neither the bid nor ask must change. On NASDAQ however, the uptick rule requires that the best bid being quoted must go up before short sell orders can be executed. Thus if you try to short a stock being hammered already, it is common for it to drop several points or more before any uptick occurs. In this situation it's often better to use a limit on your short sell order to avoid selling too low (better no execution than a bad one). On the other hand, if you decide to short sell a stock while it's still running up, a market order will likely work quite well. Here, however, you must correctly judge just how much further the stock may run (e.g. some of the internet stocks can move 20 or more pts in a single day). Shorting is always done on margin, so if you don't understand margin then don't even think about shorting. Basically, you can hold a short position forever even if it goes against you. Just as with a long position however, if your equity in the account drops below certain levels you will be required to put in more cash or sell something you are long or cover something you are short. In addition to the uptick rule, your broker must also be able to find shares to "loan" to you for the purpose of the sale. In a stock already heavily shorted, this may prove impossible. And even if the shares can be borrowed then, if the true owner of those shares later sells them or transfers them to another firm or takes physical delivery, then you may be forced to cover right then if your firm is not then able to find you new shares to borrow. The old tax strategy of "shorting against the box" is indeed history. It went out in 97 with the new rules on capital gains. Basically that had permitted you to lock in a capital gain, but delay the recognition of it for tax purposes until a later tax period. Now, if you short a stock where you have an existing long position, then the net gain or loss must be recognized immediately. You cannot short a stock in an IRA or other tax sheltered account. You cannot short a stock if you aren't approved for margin. When you short a stock your potential gain is the price where you sell (e.g. the stock goes to 0). The potential loss is infinite (e.g. the stock goes to 400 from 50). Thus the risk/reward ratio can be different than with a long position, and you should be even more attentive and careful. Your example of having both a long and short position, with stop loss order on the long position and stop buy on the short could still backfire. Using a $50 stock with the long position purchased at 40 and the short side sold at 48, with a stop loss for the long side at 46 and a stop buy for the short side at 52, either a gap up or down could be costly. Example: stock has terrible news and opens for trading at 35 - your stop loss is executed and you lose $5 on the long side. Now the stock rebounds to 42 and you have a paper gain on the short side of $6, for a net of $1 instead of the original $8. Or the stock has good news (or is an internet with momentum) and opens for trading at $65 and your stop buy is executed for a loss of $17 on the short, then settles down for trading at $58 for a paper gain on the long side of $18, again a net of $1 instead of the original $8 (and remember you already owe taxes on that $8 as of when you did the short sell). Tom W -----Original Message----- This is not CANSLIM, but it is just a question about going short. Something I have never done nor do I really understand. What I think you have to do is when a stock gets to a particular price you can sell X number of shares which is borrowed from your broker. If the price then continues down you can purchase the shares to repay the broker and you get the difference. OTOH if the stock goes up you then have to purchase it for more than you sold if for to cover the short. If a stock is at 49 can you short at 48 even though the stock is not there yet? I dont know why anyone would want to do that, seems like you could put the order in at 48 if it goes it is executed if not it isn't. As a profit protection (loss protection) tool e.g.: Purchase stock at 51 stock goes to 49. Short at 49 with a stop at 51. Stop for the long purchase at 46. The stock would actually have to go to 53 to be even due to the loss on the short sale, after it is profit. OTOH if it goes down you can only loose 2 points and if it drops to 44 you are even. Does this make sense 1: is my understanding of the process correct. 2. Is this actually done or is it a bad idea. Charlie - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] DGO Weekly Highs Date: 20 Dec 1998 08:36:13 -0500 DG books are the Daily Graphs books published by Wm O'Neil's IBD (Investors Business Daily) newspaper. And, of course, DGO is Daily Graphs Online. The DG books only include several thousand stocks, while DGO has all stocks but only has complete CANSLIM data on the ones in the books. The rest have some CS data but lack things like ROE, Timeliness, and up/down ratio. Tom W -----Original Message----- >No surprise, nrs down this week. Of all the stocks in the DG books, >only 223 made new highs, and of them 121 had both RS and EPS of 80 or >better Tom, what are "DG books"?? thanks - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] DGO Weekly Highs Date: 20 Dec 1998 08:41:21 -0500 Thanks Dan The main point of my comment, which I think I failed to make clear, is that I am used to building my watch list from stocks hitting new highs, including the full list from DGO. And lately I am finding very little of interest to me among the "new highs" group. A lot of this is because most of the new highs are in higher price ranges, as well as so many are quickly extended lately. And with VIX remaining high, this is also contributing. But I just wondered if I was the only one struggling to find good CS candidates. Tom W -----Original Message----- Hi Tom, I take your and others who submit a list of symbols and cut and paste them into a new yahoo portfolio, look at insiders, profile and look at a few stats such as number of shares. Then since I use metastock, I cut and paste them into the Downloader a line at a time, going back and deleting related symbols that the D.L. presents, then collect the data. Then I go through and look at the indicators, and charts. I am appreciative of the quality and high standard represented by the IBD numbers profiling most presented here. To answer your question as to the value of these lists by you (and others), it is yes, they are of value to me. I do not have the resources of information and the skills to write scans nor the time to collect this kind of quality, qualified data and I depend on the largess of those of you who take the time and effort to make it available to me. So please keep posting your results if your time permits. I also want to thank those of you who take the time and extend the effort to make available to the group, the results of your scans. Dan Tom Worley wrote: > .......DDDDF, RGIS, MCRL, WCOM, SYKE. > > If anyone out there (yes, that includes all you lurkers) is finding > anything useful out of these lists, would appreciate you letting me or > the group know. > > As always, you're on your own for typos. > > Tom W > > - - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "mdor" Subject: [CANSLIM] - Intel Date: 20 Dec 1998 07:59:51 -0600 I thought I would share this sample as this is coming from a program that I am writing in visual basic and accessing Excel and Access. This stock, I own in my DRIP portfolio. Guess that I am in the right place at the right time. Any comments would be welcome on Intel as a CANSLIM stock or other. Mike Doroshenko begin 666 MyHTML.htm M/$A434P^#0H\2$5!1#X-"CQM971A(&AT=' M97%U:78](D-O;G1E;G0M5'EP M92(@8V]N=&5N=#TB=&5X="]H=&UL.R!C:&%R2!T:&4@26YT97)N970@07-S:7-T86YT(%=I>F%R9"!F;W(@36EC M Subject: [CANSLIM] Short Date: 20 Dec 1998 09:17:07 -0500 Tom, and the others who explained shorting; Thanks for the explanation on shorting. I printed all that out so I can read it over a couple of times. The uptick rule is confusing but I think I have it. I have no plans to short anything till I figure out long a little better but it was bothering me not to understand it. Also, I look at all the stocks mentioned in the DGO print outs. I dont have DG so it is a big help to look at the chart patterns and appreciate them being posted. Charlie - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Joe Scott" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] DGO Weekly Highs Date: 20 Dec 1998 10:11:45 -0500 Tom,, you know I go through your lists,, and appreciate it very much.. I also make it a point to look at every stock posted to this group,, problem for me is, so many good companies, and so few dollars to spend.. joe - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "John Adair, M.D." Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] market Date: 20 Dec 1998 10:13:00 -0600 This market must be extremly strong to survive an impeachment and tripple witching and an attack on a foreign power. John Adair Tom Worley wrote: > I know within our group membership we have a substantial number of > countries represented outside the United States. I would appreciate > hearing from them on how yesterday's impeachment of President Clinton > is being viewed in your country. Please respond privately to me at > stkguru@netside.net. Is it considered serious, or a joke? Is it seen > as the end of his job, or recognized as just that charges have now > been brought and it's up to the Senate to hold a trial? Is it seen as > an issue of his sexual affairs, or a result of him lying under oath > and to the American people? What is the local expectation on what will > happen? > > I am also interested in global feedback on the US/UK bombing of Iraq. > In particular, am interested in hearing what people think will happen > now and in the future since Hussein already announced that he's not > letting the UN inspectors back in, and the US announced that bombings > will resume if he tries to rebuild his "weapons of mass destruction" > facilities. > > As a side issue, I am also interested in just how many countries are > represented in this group. My guess is about 20. > > If I get enough responses to put together a post on a global > perspective of this mess, and how it may affect "M", I will provide > feedback to the group. I will also post the list of countries > represented among us. > > Tom W > > - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "John Adair, M.D." Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] market Date: 20 Dec 1998 10:13:00 -0600 This market must be extremly strong to survive an impeachment and tripple witching and an attack on a foreign power. John Adair Tom Worley wrote: > I know within our group membership we have a substantial number of > countries represented outside the United States. I would appreciate > hearing from them on how yesterday's impeachment of President Clinton > is being viewed in your country. Please respond privately to me at > stkguru@netside.net. Is it considered serious, or a joke? Is it seen > as the end of his job, or recognized as just that charges have now > been brought and it's up to the Senate to hold a trial? Is it seen as > an issue of his sexual affairs, or a result of him lying under oath > and to the American people? What is the local expectation on what will > happen? > > I am also interested in global feedback on the US/UK bombing of Iraq. > In particular, am interested in hearing what people think will happen > now and in the future since Hussein already announced that he's not > letting the UN inspectors back in, and the US announced that bombings > will resume if he tries to rebuild his "weapons of mass destruction" > facilities. > > As a side issue, I am also interested in just how many countries are > represented in this group. My guess is about 20. > > If I get enough responses to put together a post on a global > perspective of this mess, and how it may affect "M", I will provide > feedback to the group. I will also post the list of countries > represented among us. > > Tom W > > - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: mckeener@ix.netcom.com Subject: [CANSLIM] DGO Weekly Highs Date: 20 Dec 1998 10:06:35 -0600 (CST) Tom, This list is helpful so please continue posting it when you can. A buyout boosts the stock of the acquired company, however, if the CANSLIM elements are met and are strong, that shouldn't be a problem. Like all stocks, though, continual monitoring is necessary. Is that what you mean by the above statement? Mary - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Patrick Wahl" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] DGO Weekly Highs Date: 20 Dec 1998 10:09:50 -0800 > But I just wondered if I was the only one struggling to find good CS > candidates. I seem to be finding quite a few charts, maybe we look for some slightly different things. Here are some I have mentioned here previously, plus a couple of new ones. All are canslim stocks, so I am not going to post EPS and RS numbers, they're good. Feel free to make any comments.... American Woodmark (AMWD) This made a new high, but not on very impressive volume. First Tenn. (FTEN) I'm not much on banks, but has a nice chart pattern, marginal canslim numbers. Medical Manager (MMGR) this is my favorite off this list. Just settled a Y2K lawsuit, which is what dragged it down in August. I think it might be getting ready to pop. New Dimensions (DDDDF) Hmm, just checked on this, it broke out on Friday, it was a new one and I hadn't gotten it into my watch list yet. Might already be too extended. Renal Care Group (RCGI) This one is basing pretty nicely. Sunrise Assisted Living (SNRZ) - right at a buy point now. - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] DGO Weekly Highs Date: 20 Dec 1998 14:05:37 -0500 A stock that has made its new high on the back of news should be examined more closely than one doing so on technical or fundamental basis. Likewise, one under a buyout scenario is likely already gained most of its full value, leaving little profit potential for a fresh buy. And if the buyout is for stock in part or all, then you must also examine the acquiring company to see if you really want stock in that company. Tom W -----Original Message----- Tom, This list is helpful so please continue posting it when you can. A buyout boosts the stock of the acquired company, however, if the CANSLIM elements are met and are strong, that shouldn't be a problem. Like all stocks, though, continual monitoring is necessary. Is that what you mean by the above statement? Mary - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Charles Cangialosi" Subject: [CANSLIM] ddddf Date: 20 Dec 1998 14:53:35 -0500 I went through the list that Tom W. sent and also through the "Weekend Review" in IBD in an effort to find something that looked good and was not totally extended. A few looked good but had inst. ownership of 80+%. I think it was recommended that we not invest in something with that much inst. ownership. DDDDF (despite the annoying ticker) really looked good to me. I did a spreadsheet as suggested by Db. I think based on past performance that the projected earnings are low. We were warned that could happen. Most of my info came for E-Trade. They use Baseline and seem very reliable. So if M cooperates I am going to give this one a shot. Any comments and suggestions would be welcome especially on the chart. Anyone who wants a copy of the excel spreadsheet I did email me and I will send it as an attachment. Charlie - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Scott Vickery Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Applying classic Elder to current Canslim "M" Date: 20 Dec 1998 22:34:53 -0500 Great, thank you. Scott At 07:29 AM 12/18/98 -0800, you wrote: > >Scott, > >I am not sure that Walter would agree with how I characterized his >remarks, but I made a worksheet back then that has the components as I >saw them from the board comments. Again, in my Elder newbiness, I >could be completely off, but this is what I have. I have recently >gotten the workbook and am working my way through Elder with the >workbook and will be adding to or changing my worksheet when I get >there. Right now I'm just finishing chapter 4. > > >Newbie-Triple Screen via Elder using MACD and SloSto >1. Screen One: Using Bigcharts: >MACD setting, (12,26,9) could use (5, 34,7) year (time setting) >_________ view by weeks. >Uptick in vertical bar _______ >Relationship to zero line : above (weaker) _______ below >(stronger)________ at_________. > # of confirmations: ______ >2. Screen Two: (5%K, 3%D) >Slow Stochastics setting (5 days). View by hours >Has Slo-sto gone to or below 30 in this time period _________________. > >3. Screen Three: >Set the price. Choose the highest price the stock sold for during the >past day __________, >-1day ___________, -2day______________,-3day_____________, -4 >day____________,. >Add 1 tick to the price. That is the buy price. >Assumption: if stock meets your buy price you are in; otherwise you >do not buy. > > >For Intermediate trading: > Use weekly MACD by days > Use Daily SloSto by hours > >For Short-Term trading > Use Daily MACD by hours > Use Intraday Slo-Sto by quarter hours > > > > > > > > > > > ---Scott Vickery wrote: >> >> Thanks Tom. >> >> Walter, I did not find the series of postings that you made. I >assume >> that they were culled from Elder's book Trading for a Living. >Correct? >> If so, I intend to get the book soon (either for Christmas, or the >next >> day from Amazon :) ) >> >> Scott >> >> Tom Worley wrote: >> >> > Scott, >> > >> > Try this address, should work to the limits of its capability: >> > >> > http://www.xmission.com/~mcjathan/canslim/search.html >> > >> > Tom W >> > >> > -----Original Message----- >> > From: Scott Vickery >> > To: canslim@lists.xmission.com >> > Date: Tuesday, December 15, 1998 9:08 PM >> > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Applying classic Elder to current Canslim "M" >> > >> > Hey there, >> > I am purusing the archive from last spring, and it is a bit tedious >> > this way. >> > >> > Did I see a simple search engine for the archive somewhere? Seems >> > like I >> > did, but, I do not seem to see it now. >> > >> > Scott >> > >> > At 03:43 PM 12/11/98 -0500, you wrote: >> > >Hello Doctor, >> > > >> > >You can access the archives at the following address: >> > > >> > >http://www.xmission.com/~mcjathan/cgi/lwgate.cgi/CANSLIM/ >> > > >> > >My series from the spring is in there. I don't have the volume >> > >numbers available, but will try to dig out the information when >> > >I have some time. In the interim if you want to find them, >> > >look for keywords: "Elder" and "Triple Screen". >> > > >> > >One other note: If the MACD-histogram display is hard >> > >to read or ambiguous on the computer screen, >> > >readers should print out the Bigchart charts on hardcopy. >> > >I find them far clearer on paper. This applies to my >> > >example of the Nasdaq index chart. >> > > >> > >Happy trading, >> > > >> > >Walter. >> > > >> > >John Adair, M.D. wrote: >> > > >> > >> Sounds good. can you tell me how to get into the archives for a >> > year >> > >> ago. >> > >> John Adair >> > >> >> > >> Walter Stock wrote: >> > >> >> > >> > When trying to decipher "M", I concentrate on three >> > >> > things (ok, ok, I admit I pay attention to lots >> > >> > of economic "noise" too). >> > >> > >> > >> > Anyway the three are: >> > >> > 1) WON's follow-through and distribution signals >> > >> > according to HTMMIS and his IBD series. >> > >> > 2) Market psychology (see IBD Thursday editions >> > >> > for sentiment indicators). >> > >> > 3) Dr. Alexander Elder's Triple Screen >> > >> > >> > >> > If you are using triple screen with the S&P 500 or >> > >> > Nasdaq indices this year, you are making substantial money. >> > >> > >> > >> > Go to Bigcharts and pull up a Nasdaq chart using >> > >> > the following parameters: >> > >> > >> > >> > Symbol: Nasdaq >> > >> > Time: 1 year >> > >> > Frequency: Weekly >> > >> > Lower indicator: MACD >> > >> > Leave the rest of the fields blank. >> > >> > >> > >> > Remember that these are the correct settings for an >> > >> > intermediate-term Canslim-style trader. >> > >> > >> > >> > Following this first screen alone, and looking for initial >> > >> > MACD-histogram upticks for entry into the market, >> > >> > this would have been your "M" schedule for the year: >> > >> > >> > >> > In: Last week of December 97 >> > >> > Out: 1st week April 98 >> > >> > >> > >> > In: 3rd week June >> > >> > Out: 3rd week July >> > >> > >> > >> > In: 2nd week Sept >> > >> > Out: 4th week Sept >> > >> > >> > >> > In: 2nd week October >> > >> > We are still in today and will exit with the first downtick >> > >> > in the MACD-histogram. More cautious triple-screeners >> > >> > will already be taking profits and exiting weaker stocks. >> > >> > ( I have already cut back to 30% invested.) >> > >> > >> > >> > I don't think you ask for much better "M" results for >> > >> > this year. Then again, Elder's approach works best in >> > >> > the kind of trending markets we have been in. >> > >> > (So don't fall in love with just one bloody indicator.) >> > >> > >> > >> > Newbies interested in applying this to individual stocks >> > >> > should look up my series from last spring in the archives >> > >> > (especially the applications using KEA and other stocks). >> > >> > The full triple screen is applied there in some detail. >> > >> > >> > >> > Hope this helps, >> > >> > >> > >> > Walter Stock >> > >> > Oakville, ON, Canada >> > >> > >> > >> > - >> > >> >> > >> - >> > > >> > > >> > > >> > > >> > >- >> > > >> > > >> > >> > - >> > >> > - >> >> >> - >> >> > >_________________________________________________________ >DO YOU YAHOO!? >Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com > > >- > > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] ddddf Date: 20 Dec 1998 23:09:15 -0500 The 11% gain on Friday makes it already too extended for a fresh buy unless it pulls back into the base. Tom W -----Original Message----- I went through the list that Tom W. sent and also through the "Weekend Review" in IBD in an effort to find something that looked good and was not totally extended. A few looked good but had inst. ownership of 80+%. I think it was recommended that we not invest in something with that much inst. ownership. DDDDF (despite the annoying ticker) really looked good to me. I did a spreadsheet as suggested by Db. I think based on past performance that the projected earnings are low. We were warned that could happen. Most of my info came for E-Trade. They use Baseline and seem very reliable. So if M cooperates I am going to give this one a shot. Any comments and suggestions would be welcome especially on the chart. Anyone who wants a copy of the excel spreadsheet I did email me and I will send it as an attachment. Charlie - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Ronald J. Russell, Jr." Subject: [CANSLIM] Weekly Stock List Date: 20 Dec 1998 23:11:48 -0500 No list tonight. Crazy time of year with a little too much to do and too little time to do it. Bottom line, I left most of the data on my office PC. I'll try to get it out tomorrow night. Best, Ron - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Ronald J. Russell, Jr." Subject: [CANSLIM] Date: Sun, 20 Dec 1998 23:30:19 -0500 Date: 20 Dec 1998 21:34:15 -0700 Scott, Sorry to take so long to reply. This is a great list, but I am having a = hard time keeping up with all of the posts here. Anyway, to partially answer your question, the underlying data comes = from DGO, QP2, StockQuest, and some is calculated. I'd rather not go = into a detailed discussion here laying out the source for each and every = column. Ron < I'm glad you like the list. I use a combination of Excel and MS = Access =3D to pull the data together from several different sources. No = one service/site has everything I would like to see. > Ron > < Scott>> > > - If you don't mind my asking: what is coming from which source? I = certainly don't mind using several tools to get a job done. Scott>> - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "James H. Coburn" Subject: [CANSLIM] VRTY, CMED, NCOG. I'm confused--sponsorship going down, price goes up. Date: 20 Dec 1998 22:59:43 -0700 A couple of stocks I was looking at recently have me a bit confused regarding their price movement, their volume as shown in DGO and their percentage of institutional sponsorship. ______________________________________________________________ VRTY (Verity Inc) C = 149, 111, 173, na A = na N = near a new high (-7%), intro'd a new product 12/98. S = 11.6 M L = EPS = 76 (a little short of the 80 cut off). I = 6%, down from 9% three months ago. M = --- The institutional sponsorship is down in the period of Oct.-Dec. by 33% yet the price has doubled in that time. I was under the (simple) belief that higher volumes indicated on a chart while a price was advancing indicated accumulation and higher volumes with prices declining was distribution. I'm assuming that institutional sponsorship (I.S.) going from 9% to 6% is distribution and expected not to see such a strong upward price movement. Since the I.S. is "only" 6%-9%, that leaves 91%-94% owned by others-I suppose that amount of other ownership could drive the stock up. My recollection is that WON says that 1%-35% sponsorship is enough of an indicator that "funds" think it's worth investing in and could potentially move the stock if more decide to purchase. Two other similar / related stocks: 1) CMED (Colorado Medtech Inc) C = 83, 33, 38, 33 A = 30 (stability = 8) N = near a new high (-1%), rec'd new orders in 11/98 S = 10.7 M L = EPS = 97 I = 0%, down from 1% three months ago. M = --- This stock's graph (DGO) shows strong increase in volume in November and December along with upward price movement, yet institutions are not the one(s) picking it up. 2) NCOG (NCO Group Inc) C = 60, 47, 42, 40, 88 A = 73 (stability = 24) N = ??, 12/98 a new acquistion of Medaphis Services Corp. S = 17.9 M L = EPS = 98 I = 47%, down from 89% three months ago. *********************** M = --- On this stock the I.S. change is considerably more significant (42%) yet the daily volume figures over the last three months don't seem to be greatly changed and the stock price has made a 40% upward move. What am I missing? Comments? James Coburn Albuq., New Mexico - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: mikelu Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] VRTY, CMED, NCOG. I'm confused--sponsorship going down, price goes up. Date: 20 Dec 1998 23:33:15 -0800 I look at fund ownership, and personally don't buy any stock with more than 30% fund ownership. The idea is that a stock with low fund ownership has upside potential if the funds start buying, while a stock with high fund ownership has downside potential if the funds start selling. However, I think the numbers are based on reports from mutual funds that are 90 days old. (I haven't gotten DGO to tell me exactly.) Still, I think they're good enough for a low/high indicator. Mike -----Original Message----- Sent: Sunday, December 20, 1998 10:00 PM Cc: James H. Coburn price goes up. A couple of stocks I was looking at recently have me a bit confused regarding their price movement, their volume as shown in DGO and their percentage of institutional sponsorship. ______________________________________________________________ VRTY (Verity Inc) C = 149, 111, 173, na A = na N = near a new high (-7%), intro'd a new product 12/98. S = 11.6 M L = EPS = 76 (a little short of the 80 cut off). I = 6%, down from 9% three months ago. M = --- The institutional sponsorship is down in the period of Oct.-Dec. by 33% yet the price has doubled in that time. I was under the (simple) belief that higher volumes indicated on a chart while a price was advancing indicated accumulation and higher volumes with prices declining was distribution. I'm assuming that institutional sponsorship (I.S.) going from 9% to 6% is distribution and expected not to see such a strong upward price movement. Since the I.S. is "only" 6%-9%, that leaves 91%-94% owned by others-I suppose that amount of other ownership could drive the stock up. My recollection is that WON says that 1%-35% sponsorship is enough of an indicator that "funds" think it's worth investing in and could potentially move the stock if more decide to purchase. Two other similar / related stocks: 1) CMED (Colorado Medtech Inc) C = 83, 33, 38, 33 A = 30 (stability = 8) N = near a new high (-1%), rec'd new orders in 11/98 S = 10.7 M L = EPS = 97 I = 0%, down from 1% three months ago. M = --- This stock's graph (DGO) shows strong increase in volume in November and December along with upward price movement, yet institutions are not the one(s) picking it up. 2) NCOG (NCO Group Inc) C = 60, 47, 42, 40, 88 A = 73 (stability = 24) N = ??, 12/98 a new acquistion of Medaphis Services Corp. S = 17.9 M L = EPS = 98 I = 47%, down from 89% three months ago. *********************** M = --- On this stock the I.S. change is considerably more significant (42%) yet the daily volume figures over the last three months don't seem to be greatly changed and the stock price has made a 40% upward move. What am I missing? Comments? James Coburn Albuq., New Mexico - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] VRTY, CMED, NCOG. I'm confused--sponsorship going down, price goes up. Date: 21 Dec 1998 06:36:59 -0500 You are correct, the data on institutional holdings mostly comes from the quarterly reports published by all funds. Thus the percentage holdings currently being reported comes from data as of 9/30/98 and a lot can and will have changed since then. A better measure of institutional activity during the course of a quarter is to watch block trading activity rather than overall volume. There have been some net sites mentioned here in the past as having more current data than quarterly, however don't know where they are getting it from or its accuracy since mutual funds only publish qtrly. Tom W -----Original Message----- going down, price goes up. I look at fund ownership, and personally don't buy any stock with more than 30% fund ownership. The idea is that a stock with low fund ownership has upside potential if the funds start buying, while a stock with high fund ownership has downside potential if the funds start selling. However, I think the numbers are based on reports from mutual funds that are 90 days old. (I haven't gotten DGO to tell me exactly.) Still, I think they're good enough for a low/high indicator. Mike -----Original Message----- Sent: Sunday, December 20, 1998 10:00 PM Cc: James H. Coburn down, price goes up. A couple of stocks I was looking at recently have me a bit confused regarding their price movement, their volume as shown in DGO and their percentage of institutional sponsorship. ______________________________________________________________ VRTY (Verity Inc) C = 149, 111, 173, na A = na N = near a new high (-7%), intro'd a new product 12/98. S = 11.6 M L = EPS = 76 (a little short of the 80 cut off). I = 6%, down from 9% three months ago. M = --- The institutional sponsorship is down in the period of Oct.-Dec. by 33% yet the price has doubled in that time. I was under the (simple) belief that higher volumes indicated on a chart while a price was advancing indicated accumulation and higher volumes with prices declining was distribution. I'm assuming that institutional sponsorship (I.S.) going from 9% to 6% is distribution and expected not to see such a strong upward price movement. Since the I.S. is "only" 6%-9%, that leaves 91%-94% owned by others-I suppose that amount of other ownership could drive the stock up. My recollection is that WON says that 1%-35% sponsorship is enough of an indicator that "funds" think it's worth investing in and could potentially move the stock if more decide to purchase. Two other similar / related stocks: 1) CMED (Colorado Medtech Inc) C = 83, 33, 38, 33 A = 30 (stability = 8) N = near a new high (-1%), rec'd new orders in 11/98 S = 10.7 M L = EPS = 97 I = 0%, down from 1% three months ago. M = --- This stock's graph (DGO) shows strong increase in volume in November and December along with upward price movement, yet institutions are not the one(s) picking it up. 2) NCOG (NCO Group Inc) C = 60, 47, 42, 40, 88 A = 73 (stability = 24) N = ??, 12/98 a new acquistion of Medaphis Services Corp. S = 17.9 M L = EPS = 98 I = 47%, down from 89% three months ago. *********************** M = --- On this stock the I.S. change is considerably more significant (42%) yet the daily volume figures over the last three months don't seem to be greatly changed and the stock price has made a 40% upward move. What am I missing? Comments? James Coburn Albuq., New Mexico - - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Thomas A. Moulton" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Short Date: 21 Dec 1998 07:46:37 -0500 Cc: stkguru@netside.net > >Tom, and the others who explained shorting; >Thanks for the explanation on shorting. I printed all that out so I can read >it over a couple of times. The uptick rule is confusing but I think I have >it. I have no plans to short anything till I figure out long a little better >but it was bothering me not to understand it. >Also, I look at all the stocks mentioned in the DGO print outs. I dont have >DG so it is a big help to look at the chart patterns and appreciate them >being posted. I know this is less Canslim than Selling short is but you might want to learn about PUT options since they have LESS risk than selling Short. tom m - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Johan Van Houtven Subject: [CANSLIM] Marder Date: 21 Dec 1998 15:56:01 +0100 A must read about the 'M': Marder on the Markets: http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/current/marder.htx?source=htx/http2_mw -- Johan Van Houtven - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Tim Fisher Subject: [CANSLIM] Excellent Marder article Date: 21 Dec 1998 07:33:08 -0800 Seems Marder thinks we should be all in right now. http://cbs.marketwatch.com/archive/19981221/news/current/marder.htx?source=b lq/yhoo&dist=yhoo Tim Fisher, 1995 President, Pacific Fishery Biologists Ore-ROCK-On Rockhounding Web Site PFB Information mailto:tim@OreRockOn.com WWW http://OreRockOn.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: administrator@alltel.com Subject: [CANSLIM] Message not deliverable Date: 21 Dec 1998 11:02:02 -0600 Tom, and the others who explained shorting; Thanks for the explanation on shorting. I printed all that out so I can read it over a couple of times. The uptick rule is confusing but I think I have it. I have no plans to short anything till I figure out long a little better but it was bothering me not to understand it. Also, I look at all the stocks mentioned in the DGO print outs. I dont have DG so it is a big help to look at the chart patterns and appreciate them being posted. Charlie - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: administrator@alltel.com Subject: [CANSLIM] Message not deliverable Date: 21 Dec 1998 11:02:01 -0600 Thanks Dan The main point of my comment, which I think I failed to make clear, is that I am used to building my watch list from stocks hitting new highs, including the full list from DGO. And lately I am finding very little of interest to me among the "new highs" group. A lot of this is because most of the new highs are in higher price ranges, as well as so many are quickly extended lately. And with VIX remaining high, this is also contributing. But I just wondered if I was the only one struggling to find good CS candidates. Tom W -----Original Message----- Hi Tom, I take your and others who submit a list of symbols and cut and paste them into a new yahoo portfolio, look at insiders, profile and look at a few stats such as number of shares. Then since I use metastock, I cut and paste them into the Downloader a line at a time, going back and deleting related symbols that the D.L. presents, then collect the data. Then I go through and look at the indicators, and charts. I am appreciative of the quality and high standard represented by the IBD numbers profiling most presented here. To answer your question as to the value of these lists by you (and others), it is yes, they are of value to me. I do not have the resources of information and the skills to write scans nor the time to collect this kind of quality, qualified data and I depend on the largess of those of you who take the time and effort to make it available to me. So please keep posting your results if your time permits. I also want to thank those of you who take the time and extend the effort to make available to the group, the results of your scans. Dan Tom Worley wrote: > .......DDDDF, RGIS, MCRL, WCOM, SYKE. > > If anyone out there (yes, that includes all you lurkers) is finding > anything useful out of these lists, would appreciate you letting me or > the group know. > > As always, you're on your own for typos. > > Tom W > > - - - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Mypiason3@aol.com Subject: [CANSLIM] MAIR Date: 21 Dec 1998 13:57:53 EST Tom thanks for the evaluation of the pdq graph, it is appreciated. Anyone in the group willing to look at the chart of the stock MAIR it is an affiliate of N.W. aitline. The company has issued a $30 million stock buy back program. My question is is the chart a healthy correction? Bill White - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Mypiason3@aol.com Subject: [CANSLIM] THQI Date: 21 Dec 1998 14:06:39 EST Canslim stock but is it overextended? How is the chart? It looked like it was forming a head and shoulders top? Anyone? Bill White - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Mypiason3@aol.com Subject: [CANSLIM] noncanslim If a stock is shorted does the shorted shares come off the float Date: 21 Dec 1998 15:02:08 EST Thanks Bill White - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Johan Van Houtven Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] M Date: 21 Dec 1998 22:02:34 +0100 I wrote: >Up more than 1% on increased volume. 4th day of the ralley. I'd call this a >follow-through day. Thank you, 'M'. > >(BTW, no matter what all those foreign critics are saying... this 'critic' >still thinks the US is the place to be... especially it's 'M'. B^) Today is another follow-through day. Up 1% or more (duh) on higher volume than previous day. It looks like it will be though to find a good CS stock that is not already extended after today's action... ;^) Johan - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Walter Stock Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Applying classic Elder to current Canslim "M" Date: 21 Dec 1998 17:22:03 -0500 Hi TM, Looks like a good screen for candidates. Two other points: 1) I try to use Triple Screen with stocks that feature some strong Canslim features as well (e.g. high EPS, high RS etc.). 2) For the short-term trading mentioned in your last paragraph, Elder would tell you to use intraday Slosto by 10 minute frequency, (not quarter hour periods). See "Trading for a Living" p. 237. I recognize that if you are using Bigcharts, that currently Bigcharts does not give you a choice of using a 10 minute frequency. Then again, if you are daytrading you will want a real-time service. Good luck with your screen. Walter TM wrote: > Scott, > > I am not sure that Walter would agree with how I characterized his > remarks, but I made a worksheet back then that has the components as I > saw them from the board comments. Again, in my Elder newbiness, I > could be completely off, but this is what I have. I have recently > gotten the workbook and am working my way through Elder with the > workbook and will be adding to or changing my worksheet when I get > there. Right now I'm just finishing chapter 4. > > Newbie-Triple Screen via Elder using MACD and SloSto > 1. Screen One: Using Bigcharts: > MACD setting, (12,26,9) could use (5, 34,7) year (time setting) > _________ view by weeks. > Uptick in vertical bar _______ > Relationship to zero line : above (weaker) _______ below > (stronger)________ at_________. > # of confirmations: ______ > 2. Screen Two: (5%K, 3%D) > Slow Stochastics setting (5 days). View by hours > Has Slo-sto gone to or below 30 in this time period _________________. > > 3. Screen Three: > Set the price. Choose the highest price the stock sold for during the > past day __________, > -1day ___________, -2day______________,-3day_____________, -4 > day____________,. > Add 1 tick to the price. That is the buy price. > Assumption: if stock meets your buy price you are in; otherwise you > do not buy. > > For Intermediate trading: > Use weekly MACD by days > Use Daily SloSto by hours > > For Short-Term trading > Use Daily MACD by hours > Use Intraday Slo-Sto by quarter hours > > > > ---Scott Vickery wrote: - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Walter Stock Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Not CANSLIM: the Market and the Media Date: 21 Dec 1998 18:02:34 -0500 Hi Dan, To answer your question, there has been little overt opposition to the US actions in Iraq (only some small demonstrations in a couple of cities). With the attacks over, I doubt that there will be any more. However, the only public opinion poll that I have seen so far shows opposition to the US actions running at 73%. Among the leaders and opinion shapers in Canada, opposition seems even higher. This is interesting because back in the original Gulf War of the early 90's, Canadians supported intervention. We sent naval destroyers to the Persian Gulf, and Canadian F-18's attacked Iraqi troop concentrations in the desert. This time though, Canadians that I have talked to view the missions as an effort by Clinton to distract people and to prop up his presidency. This time our Prime Minister calls the attacks on Iraq an "unfortunate situation" and reassures Canadians that "we are not involved". Americans may have to rally around your President at a time like this. Up here, we really don't. Walter Oakville ON, Canada Dan Cash wrote: > Morning Walter, > > Regarding your second paragraph particularly: Are any overtly > opposing the U.S. actions? IS there anti-American sentiment being > expressed in your media? > > Interesting and thought provoking posting! - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "John Adair, M.D." Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Tracking the market indices Date: 20 Dec 1998 10:09:18 -0600 Hi I think this post is very good but I dont understand it for the folowing reasons which I hope you will clearify. 1:by compression do you mean distribution day and reversal as an expansion day or is it a change in trend. 2: would you paste your actual scan on the board. 3: what is a triple scan according to elder. Thanks JOhn Adair rolatzi wrote: > I have written a scan on QP2 to track the market indices according to > the teachings of WON. I am appending to the bottom of this message > the results for the last three months and would appreciate any > feedback on whether it is useful, correct, etc. > My criteria as I have read from WON and from our group are as follows: > Bottom: close(i)>1.01*close(i-1) or close(i)>1.01*low(i) > on increased volume > Follow through: days 3 through 9 after bottom > Reversal: open(i)>close(i-1) or high(i)>high(i-1) > and close(i) volume(i)>colume(i-1) > Compression: volume(i)> volume(i-1) > close(i) I am also including a calculation of the Weekly MACD Histogram as > first screen for people who use Elder Triple screen. I am interested > to see how it meshes with WON's market watching but haven't yet > analyzed the data in detail. > If it is useful I can post weekly the previous week's results. > > Ciao, > rolatzi > The scan follows: > Weekly > MACD > Index,Date, High,Low, Close, Vol, Histo, Comment > !DJ30,09/24/1998,8227.53,7906.73,8001.99, 83.18,-169.61 > !COMP,12/16/1998,2027.10,1996.80,2009.30, 0.85, 42.05,Reversal > !COMP,12/17/1998,2043.80,2014.70,2043.80, 0.80, 42.46 > !COMP,12/18/1998,2086.14,2055.83,2086.14, 0.91, 43.43,Up 1% wVol > > _________________________________________________________ > DO YOU YAHOO!? > Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com > > - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Charles Cangialosi" Subject: [CANSLIM] ddddf Date: 21 Dec 1998 19:17:06 -0500 I bought DDDDF today. I felt that it was not extended on Friday because it just made a new high granted it was a big move to do it. There was a better time to buy it but it was noticeable to me with the benefit of hindsight. I would not have picked it then. This is no doubt the area I need to work on. If it was 11% extend as Tom suggested at $39 (and I believe he is correct). I really messed up. It was at 41.88 when I bought it. So it was super extended. I did this because I could not get to the computer till about 10:30 AM and had been working on this decision all weekend. I figured the market had a fair chance to continue up. I did place the stop at $36. I realize it is loose but I had to give it more room cause I got in late. However I did cut my purchase in half so in the event I was messing up, which I know at the time was a possibility I would not get hammered as hard. Charlie - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "S Menon" Subject: [CANSLIM] ATHM Date: 21 Dec 1998 17:46:02 PST Does anyone know what happened to ATHM today ? Sell off happened at the last moment. Thanks > ______________________________________________________ Get Your Private, Free Email at http://www.hotmail.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Anindo Majumdar Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] DGO Weekly Highs Date: 21 Dec 1998 18:06:23 -0800 (PST) How much does the DGO service cost and is it worth it ? Comments. Thanks Anindo > > DG books are the Daily Graphs books published by Wm O'Neil's IBD > (Investors Business Daily) newspaper. > > And, of course, DGO is Daily Graphs Online. > > The DG books only include several thousand stocks, while DGO has all > stocks but only has complete CANSLIM data on the ones in the books. > The rest have some CS data but lack things like ROE, Timeliness, and > up/down ratio. > > Tom W > > -----Original Message----- > From: james sullivan > To: canslim@lists.xmission.com > Date: Saturday, December 19, 1998 7:38 PM > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] DGO Weekly Highs > > > >No surprise, nrs down this week. Of all the stocks in the DG books, > >only 223 made new highs, and of them 121 had both RS and EPS of 80 or > >better > > Tom, what are "DG books"?? > > thanks > > > - > > > > - > > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: rolatzi Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Tracking the market indices Date: 21 Dec 1998 18:13:16 -0800 (PST) John: ---"John Adair, M.D." wrote: > > Hi > I think this post is very good but I dont understand it for the folowing > reasons which I hope you will clearify. > 1:by compression do you mean distribution day and reversal as an > expansion day or is it a change in trend. Compression is: close lower than previous day on increased volume. Reversal is: open is greater than previous day close or the high is greater than the previous day high and the closing price is down on increased volume compared with previous day. > 2: would you paste your actual scan on the board. I will send you the scan. > 3: what is a triple scan according to elder. The triple scan has been discussed extensively on this board and within the last week by TM with a reply today from Walter Stock. Ciao, rolatzi > Thanks JOhn Adair > > rolatzi wrote: > > > I have written a scan on QP2 to track the market indices according to > > the teachings of WON. I am appending to the bottom of this message > > the results for the last three months and would appreciate any > > feedback on whether it is useful, correct, etc. > > My criteria as I have read from WON and from our group are as follows: > > Bottom: close(i)>1.01*close(i-1) or close(i)>1.01*low(i) > > on increased volume > > Follow through: days 3 through 9 after bottom > > Reversal: open(i)>close(i-1) or high(i)>high(i-1) > > and close(i) > volume(i)>colume(i-1) > > Compression: volume(i)> volume(i-1) > > close(i) > I am also including a calculation of the Weekly MACD Histogram as > > first screen for people who use Elder Triple screen. I am interested > > to see how it meshes with WON's market watching but haven't yet > > analyzed the data in detail. > > If it is useful I can post weekly the previous week's results. > > > > Ciao, > > rolatzi > > The scan follows: > > Weekly > > MACD > > Index,Date, High,Low, Close, Vol, Histo, Comment > > !DJ30,09/24/1998,8227.53,7906.73,8001.99, 83.18,-169.61 > > > > > !COMP,12/16/1998,2027.10,1996.80,2009.30, 0.85, 42.05,Reversal > > !COMP,12/17/1998,2043.80,2014.70,2043.80, 0.80, 42.46 > > !COMP,12/18/1998,2086.14,2055.83,2086.14, 0.91, 43.43,Up 1% wVol > > > > _________________________________________________________ > > DO YOU YAHOO!? > > Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com > > > > - > > > > > - > > _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Ssingh@aol.com Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] ddddf Date: 21 Dec 1998 23:33:20 EST In a message dated 12/21/98 7:19:01 PM Eastern Standard Time, chcng@worldnet.att.net writes: > I bought DDDDF today. I felt that it was not extended on Friday because it > just made a new high granted it was a big move to do it. There was a better > time to buy it but it was noticeable to me with the benefit of hindsight. I > would not have picked it then. This is no doubt the area I need to work on. > If it was 11% extend as Tom suggested at $39 (and I believe he is correct). > I really messed up. It was at 41.88 when I bought it. So it was super > extended. I did this because I could not get to the computer till about > 10:30 AM and had been working on this decision all weekend. I figured the > market had a fair chance to continue up. I did place the stop at $36. I > realize it is loose but I had to give it more room cause I got in late. > However I did cut my purchase in half so in the event I was messing up, > which I know at the time was a possibility I would not get hammered as hard. > Charlie > good job charlie..... - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Bill Triffet" Subject: [CANSLIM] Charting Software for CANSLIM Date: 21 Dec 1998 21:26:34 -0800 I hope this question hasn't been beat to the ground but... I'm looking at TC2000 or Windows on Wallstreet for camslim searching. Up till now I've been going through my IBD (which is slow and untimely) then following up on some of the fine searchs folks have posted here. What are the strengths and weaknesses of each package as a screening tool? Both, it appears make their money on the required data service. What is the level of data required to get good scans ie, both have several levels of data pricing. Is Daily Graphs a better way to go? I realize this is purely subjective but would really like to hear your comments/advise on this as I'm trying to reduce my screening time. Thanks in advance. Bill - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] Asian mkts Date: 22 Dec 1998 00:50:07 -0500 Japan getting hammered as I write, down nearly 400 points, and well under support around 14,000 (down 2.7%). New Zealand maintaining support, tho S. Korea giving up some of its recent gains. Singapore also holding up with some strength. Tom W - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] MAIR Date: 22 Dec 1998 07:18:11 -0500 While the chart may have some attractive features, the RS of 59 and EPS of 69 clearly takes it off any CANSLIM list. As a side note, I have been intrigued at how badly the airline sector has done lately despite the record low prices in oil. Their fuel costs historically have tracked inversely well with stock price performance, but not now and I don't know why. Tom W -----Original Message----- Tom thanks for the evaluation of the pdq graph, it is appreciated. Anyone in the group willing to look at the chart of the stock MAIR it is an affiliate of N.W. aitline. The company has issued a $30 million stock buy back program. My question is is the chart a healthy correction? Bill White - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] THQI Date: 22 Dec 1998 07:15:06 -0500 Bill, I don't see it as overextended. All the CS elements look decent. But from a fundis standpoint, I would be concerned that it must do 52 cents in Q4 (double what it did in each of the last two qtrs) just to meet analyst's expectations. And at 52 cents, it still would fall short of year ago Q4. Tom W -----Original Message----- Canslim stock but is it overextended? How is the chart? It looked like it was forming a head and shoulders top? Anyone? Bill White - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] On "M" Date: 22 Dec 1998 07:39:28 -0500 I remain concerned over the lack of new highs on both NYSE and Nasdaq, as well as the "euphoria" in internet stocks. Simply unbelievable! I also don't like the lack of up volume even on good days. As a side comment, anyone wanting to see a fairly textbook cup and handle, take a look at the S&P500 chart. Yesterday's spike may be the classic breakout from the handle, tho volume was certainly not 150%. However, this time of year it's pretty hard to get volume, and also the volume trend line has been steadily moving up for over a month. And you just don't typically get volume spikes on indexes. Tom W - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] DGO Weekly Highs Date: 21 Dec 1998 21:36:04 -0500 It's obviously worth it to me as I am a subscriber. The annual cost is $720, higher if you subscribe for shorter periods (monthly for example is about $67). However the cheapest way to go is to subscribe to one of the DB books on a monthly basis (cost $295/year) then take the discounted offer for book subscribers ($299) for a total cost annually of $530. Check out the full pricing if interested at http://www.dailygraphs.com/download.htm There are several cheaper options, including a free demo and a cheap 7 day trial, so that you can see the features and charts in case you've never seen it before. There is also a cheap ($43 for both NYSE and NASDAQ/AMEX books) for four weeks for the printed version. Tom W -----Original Message----- How much does the DGO service cost and is it worth it ? Comments. Thanks Anindo > > DG books are the Daily Graphs books published by Wm O'Neil's IBD > (Investors Business Daily) newspaper. > > And, of course, DGO is Daily Graphs Online. > > The DG books only include several thousand stocks, while DGO has all > stocks but only has complete CANSLIM data on the ones in the books. > The rest have some CS data but lack things like ROE, Timeliness, and > up/down ratio. > > Tom W > > -----Original Message----- > From: james sullivan > To: canslim@lists.xmission.com > Date: Saturday, December 19, 1998 7:38 PM > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] DGO Weekly Highs > > > >No surprise, nrs down this week. Of all the stocks in the DG books, > >only 223 made new highs, and of them 121 had both RS and EPS of 80 or > >better > > Tom, what are "DG books"?? > > thanks > > > - > > > > - > > - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "S Menon" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] DGO Weekly Highs Date: 22 Dec 1998 05:44:06 PST Tom, Is there any search capability ? I could not see anything in the Demo. Thanks SMenon >From: "Tom Worley" >To: >Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] DGO Weekly Highs >Date: Mon, 21 Dec 1998 21:36:04 -0500 >Reply-To: canslim@lists.xmission.com > >It's obviously worth it to me as I am a subscriber. > >The annual cost is $720, higher if you subscribe for shorter periods >(monthly for example is about $67). However the cheapest way to go is >to subscribe to one of the DB books on a monthly basis (cost >$295/year) then take the discounted offer for book subscribers ($299) >for a total cost annually of $530. > >Check out the full pricing if interested at >http://www.dailygraphs.com/download.htm > >There are several cheaper options, including a free demo and a cheap 7 >day trial, so that you can see the features and charts in case you've >never seen it before. There is also a cheap ($43 for both NYSE and >NASDAQ/AMEX books) for four weeks for the printed version. > >Tom W >-----Original Message----- >From: Anindo Majumdar >To: canslim@lists.xmission.com >Date: Monday, December 21, 1998 9:07 PM >Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] DGO Weekly Highs > > >How much does the DGO service cost and is it worth it ? Comments. > >Thanks >Anindo >> >> DG books are the Daily Graphs books published by Wm O'Neil's IBD >> (Investors Business Daily) newspaper. >> >> And, of course, DGO is Daily Graphs Online. >> >> The DG books only include several thousand stocks, while DGO has all >> stocks but only has complete CANSLIM data on the ones in the books. >> The rest have some CS data but lack things like ROE, Timeliness, and >> up/down ratio. >> >> Tom W >> >> -----Original Message----- >> From: james sullivan >> To: canslim@lists.xmission.com >> Date: Saturday, December 19, 1998 7:38 PM >> Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] DGO Weekly Highs >> >> >> >No surprise, nrs down this week. Of all the stocks in the DG books, >> >only 223 made new highs, and of them 121 had both RS and EPS of 80 >or >> >better >> >> Tom, what are "DG books"?? >> >> thanks >> >> >> - >> >> >> >> - >> >> > > >- > > > > > >- > ______________________________________________________ Get Your Private, Free Email at http://www.hotmail.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Joe Scott" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] DGO Weekly Highs Date: 22 Dec 1998 09:21:36 -0500 No search or (scanning?) capabilities at all,, it offers several reports of highest RS , new highs, that type of thing, etc. but as for scans it offers nothing,, you can't even create your own watch lists,, I find it very limiting, but I like the look and feel of the chart, and fundamental information it gives for the stocks is very good, .. .. I also find it to be very slow at times bringing up the chart,, I also have TC2000,, and I love it,, I have it on a no charge promo from Schwab for 6 months... Just my opinion... joe - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: musicant@autobahn.org (Dan Musicant) Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] noncanslim If a stock is shorted does the shorted shares come off the float Date: 22 Dec 1998 14:25:43 GMT On Mon, 21 Dec 1998 15:02:08 EST, you wrote: :Thanks :Bill White : The shorted shares are traded in the same way long shares are traded. The only difference is that someone is buying shares from you, who have borrowed them from the broker. The broker can lend these to you if someone else has bought them on margin. This is how I understand it. All publicly traded shares are part of the float, which represents the portion of shares that are publicly traded as opposed to those that are internally held by members of the company. Dan - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: musicant@autobahn.org (Dan Musicant) Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Totally (or at least mostly) non-CANSLIM Date: 22 Dec 1998 14:42:14 GMT Hiya Tom, Well, technically perhaps not outside the U.S., but I'm in Berkeley, considered by some to be a free state in its own right! In my view, the impeachment proceedings are somewhat farcical and it's become clear in just the last 48 hours that nothing serious is going to come of them. Censure, very possibly without a trial, is the almost certain outcome. This means that all in all it's a lot of smoke, no fire.=20 So, our boy Bill has built himself a rep as the guy who smoked the weed, dodged the draft, demonstrated against his country in a foreign land, engaged in free sex, and generally lived up to the reputation of his generation. This ranckles some Republicans. It all fits a pretty consistent picture if you think about it this way. Quit? Ousted from office? Never.=20 I've seen a lot of talk about the gravity, the terrible stain that is being left here. I believe this is all ridiculous and perfectly laughable. I don't think Bill feels this way, and doubt that he will ever take it seriously. Now, others will take things as they prefer or have a bent to, and it's always like that. Dan On Sun, 20 Dec 1998 07:48:40 -0500, you wrote: :I know within our group membership we have a substantial number of :countries represented outside the United States. I would appreciate :hearing from them on how yesterday's impeachment of President Clinton :is being viewed in your country. Please respond privately to me at :stkguru@netside.net. Is it considered serious, or a joke? Is it seen :as the end of his job, or recognized as just that charges have now :been brought and it's up to the Senate to hold a trial? Is it seen as :an issue of his sexual affairs, or a result of him lying under oath :and to the American people? What is the local expectation on what will :happen? Tom, seriously, lieing about an affair, even under oath to a grand jury can be seen as justifiable in the eyes of many sentient people, though it may be difficult to state those views in chambers or halls of justice. The Republicans are presumably for family values, as they call them, and they don't consider Bill's efforts to keep his pecadillo hidden and protect his family to be justified. There is a palpable hypocrisy in this in my view. It's all pretty laughable, I hope you can imagine. :I am also interested in global feedback on the US/UK bombing of Iraq. :In particular, am interested in hearing what people think will happen :now and in the future since Hussein already announced that he's not :letting the UN inspectors back in, and the US announced that bombings :will resume if he tries to rebuild his "weapons of mass destruction" :facilities. This question of the bombing of Iraq is the more interesting, by far. Did you read Walter Stock's words to the effect that only the US and UK support the actions? This IS important. :As a side issue, I am also interested in just how many countries are :represented in this group. My guess is about 20. 21! Free in Berkeley! Dan Musicant :If I get enough responses to put together a post on a global :perspective of this mess, and how it may affect "M", I will provide :feedback to the group. I will also post the list of countries :represented among us. : :Tom W You got your answer yesterday, concerning the impeachment. The clear indications that the Republicans realize now that public opinion is solidly against them is causing them to beat a hasty retreat. The markets rejoiced yesterday. - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Scott Vickery Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Charting Software for CANSLIM Date: 22 Dec 1998 04:45:18 -0500 I think that the Worden Brothers have done a fine job with TC2000. They do not have IBD specific indicators such as RS and EPS, but EPS at least can be approximated. While not canslim, the Worden's put notes about stocks in every day that I find very useful. The other thing that the software does not provide for that I find frustrating, is a programable way to do scans. The scans that they allow however seem to be very powerful. Also, they have some proprietary indicators of their own that I think are pretty useful: Moneystream, Time Segmented Volume, and Balance of Power. You can try it for 30 days for free to see what it is like. Scott Bill Triffet wrote: > I hope this question hasn't been beat to the ground but... > > I'm looking at TC2000 or Windows on Wallstreet for camslim searching. Up > till now I've been going through my IBD (which is slow and untimely) then > following up on some of the fine searchs folks have posted here. > > What are the strengths and weaknesses of each package as a screening tool? > Both, it appears make their money on the required data service. What is the > level of data required to get good scans ie, both have several levels of > data pricing. Is Daily Graphs a better way to go? I realize this is purely > subjective but would really like to hear your comments/advise on this as I'm > trying to reduce my screening time. > > Thanks in advance. > > Bill > > - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Johan Van Houtven Subject: [CANSLIM] DGO ... slow Date: 22 Dec 1998 16:16:53 +0100 Joe wrote [about DGO]: >I also find it to be very slow at times bringing up the chart,, Thank you for mentioning that, Joe. I also find it VERY slow at times, but I thought it had to do with my 'long distance' internet connection (all the way from Belgium to the US). Maybe they have so many subscribers that they will need to upgrade their servers and line capacity? Have you mailed them about the lack of speed? -- Johan Van Houtven - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Tim Fisher Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] THQI Date: 22 Dec 1998 07:21:11 -0800 Tom, it's Xmas, the expectations are that they should have double the earnings this qtr because their games are very popular. My kids want most of them ;) It is basing, still way high on my watch list, I want in again for the next run up. Very positive commentary on it from The Street and MF lately. At 07:15 AM 12/22/98 -0500, you wrote: >Bill, I don't see it as overextended. All the CS elements look decent. >But from a fundis standpoint, I would be concerned that it must do 52 >cents in Q4 (double what it did in each of the last two qtrs) just to >meet analyst's expectations. And at 52 cents, it still would fall >short of year ago Q4. > >Tom W > >-----Original Message----- >From: Mypiason3@aol.com >To: canslim@xmission.com >Date: Monday, December 21, 1998 2:09 PM >Subject: [CANSLIM] THQI > > >Canslim stock but is it overextended? How is the chart? It looked >like it >was forming a head and shoulders top? Anyone? > >Bill White > Tim Fisher, 1995 President, Pacific Fishery Biologists Ore-ROCK-On Rockhounding Web Site PFB Information mailto:tim@OreRockOn.com WWW http://OreRockOn.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Robert Miller" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] DGO ... slow Date: 22 Dec 1998 11:57:05 -0500 I have not had any real problems with speed on DGO. It usually loads a chart in about 2 seconds. However, about 1 in 50 times it may take longer, about 5 to 10 seconds, but this is not really a problem. I find that it loads very much the same way other content on the internet loads. Mostly fast, but sometimes slow. I also have a very good ISP. I use a standard 56K connection, but my ISP is very fast and reliable. I have tried other ISP's in the past year and I find that it greatly affects how fast DGO works. (IMO, My local ISP is much faster than any of the national providers) -----Original Message----- >Joe wrote [about DGO]: >>I also find it to be very slow at times bringing up the chart,, > >Thank you for mentioning that, Joe. I also find it VERY slow at times, but >I thought it had to do with my 'long distance' internet connection (all the >way from Belgium to the US). > >Maybe they have so many subscribers that they will need to upgrade their >servers and line capacity? > >Have you mailed them about the lack of speed? > > > >-- Johan Van Houtven > > > >- > > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Ssingh@aol.com Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] DGO ... slow Date: 22 Dec 1998 12:03:28 EST I found the service very slow when I use at&t worldnet service (usual connection 26000 baud's), but much faster on AOL (usual connection 37333 baud's). So I think AOL will continue to climb into new highs.... Surindra In a message dated 12/22/98 10:19:25 AM Eastern Standard Time, Johan.VanHoutven@ping.be writes: > Joe wrote [about DGO]: > >I also find it to be very slow at times bringing up the chart,, > > Thank you for mentioning that, Joe. I also find it VERY slow at times, but > I thought it had to do with my 'long distance' internet connection (all the > way from Belgium to the US). > > Maybe they have so many subscribers that they will need to upgrade their > servers and line capacity? > > Have you mailed them about the lack of speed? > > > > -- Johan Van Houtven > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tony Austin" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Charting Software for CANSLIM Date: 22 Dec 1998 13:22:13 -0500 Bill, TC2000, for windows, is a great screening tool. While you cant short list on each of the specific canslim criteria. You can get very close with combinations of other factors, such as range and beta. Email me directly if you have any specific questions about the screens I have set up. Happy Holidays. Tony ______________________________ Tony Austin email me at tony@radixinc.com send me a note via icq at 14719809 You can get icq at http://icq.com/ -----Original Message----- >I hope this question hasn't been beat to the ground but... > >I'm looking at TC2000 or Windows on Wallstreet for camslim searching. Up >till now I've been going through my IBD (which is slow and untimely) then >following up on some of the fine searchs folks have posted here. > >What are the strengths and weaknesses of each package as a screening tool? >Both, it appears make their money on the required data service. What is the >level of data required to get good scans ie, both have several levels of >data pricing. Is Daily Graphs a better way to go? I realize this is purely >subjective but would really like to hear your comments/advise on this as I'm >trying to reduce my screening time. > >Thanks in advance. > >Bill > > >- > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Joe J." Subject: [CANSLIM] alternative to canslim Date: 22 Dec 1998 11:28:35 -0700 I have been a member of this list for quite some time now (my guess is about 1 1/2 years). I used to follow CS but I don't any more. I stayed on the Digest version of the list because I still enjoy some of the posts (mostly on non-CS stuff like the software, good web sites, etc.). I noticed that some of you are using Elder's triple screen to scan stocks and that Connie will still post on his methods once in a while. I have read Elder's book and also tested Connie's method. I just wanted to throw out one that you may not have heard of. Bill Williams' Chaos Theory. He has two books out. The first is "Trading Chaos" and the second is "New Trading Dimensions". If you only get one, get the second one. In some respects, his methods are like CS where you are buying off a base. However, you can toss what I consider vague concepts like the cup and handle out the window and use the leveling of 3 moving averages combined with two MACD's to identify your base. Then, you wait for a fractal high or low on which to set your buy or sell stops. Fundamentals are completely ignored in his method. You also know exactly where to set stops, add to positions, and take profits. The system works for shorts or longs. The rules are much clearer than CS, in my opinion. I've used this system to enter a number of the internet companies in what I consider a "safe" manner. I say that because I sense that some of you have been a bit frustrated in missing this group because of lack of earnings making it non-CS. I personally like the system because I'm sure of where I'm going with it. It is much less subjective than CS, in my opinion. I run a nightly scan on MetaStock and get my data from QuotePlus2. One thing I have learned in my 10 years of investing/trading life is that there are many methods that will make money and many that won't. You have to find one that works for you. Just thought I'd throw that out there in case anyone is looking for a good book to read over the holidays. Good Trading, Joe J. - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Scott Vickery Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] alternative to canslim Date: 22 Dec 1998 08:43:58 -0500 Joe, Sounds very interesting. Could you sum up the strategy in a more specific way For example. what 3 ma's are used, which 2 MACD's are used, and how are these used together to determine a base? What is a fractal high and a fractal low, and how are they constructed? Scott Joe J. wrote: > I have been a member of this list for quite some time now (my guess is > about 1 1/2 years). I used to follow CS but I don't any more. I stayed > on the Digest version of the list because I still enjoy some of the > posts (mostly on non-CS stuff like the software, good web sites, etc.). > I noticed that some of you are using Elder's triple screen to scan > stocks and that Connie will still post on his methods once in a while. > I have read Elder's book and also tested Connie's method. > > I just wanted to throw out one that you may not have heard of. Bill > Williams' Chaos Theory. He has two books out. The first is "Trading > Chaos" and the second is "New Trading Dimensions". If you only get one, > get the second one. > > In some respects, his methods are like CS where you are buying off a > base. However, you can toss what I consider vague concepts like the cup > and handle out the window and use the leveling of 3 moving averages > combined with two MACD's to identify your base. Then, you wait for a > fractal high or low on which to set your buy or sell stops. > Fundamentals are completely ignored in his method. You also know > exactly where to set stops, add to positions, and take profits. The > system works for shorts or longs. The rules are much clearer than CS, > in my opinion. > > I've used this system to enter a number of the internet companies in > what I consider a "safe" manner. I say that because I sense that some > of you have been a bit frustrated in missing this group because of lack > of earnings making it non-CS. I personally like the system because I'm > sure of where I'm going with it. It is much less subjective than CS, in > my opinion. I run a nightly scan on MetaStock and get my data from > QuotePlus2. > > One thing I have learned in my 10 years of investing/trading life is > that there are many methods that will make money and many that won't. > You have to find one that works for you. > > Just thought I'd throw that out there in case anyone is looking for a > good book to read over the holidays. > > Good Trading, > > Joe J. > > - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Tim Fisher Subject: [CANSLIM] VTSS Article Date: 22 Dec 1998 13:20:25 -0800 Argument that VTSS run is over for now. Here's the excerpt; URL below. I don't buy it - since when did PE's ever mean anything? If they did then AMZN would be $3 not $300. P.S. Boy did INSS ever pop another cork today! That's three days in a row. Almost like they were getting added to the NASDAQ 100. Oops, that's VTSS. Silly me. Impressive given the 1-4% drops in my other techs and the profit taking on the techs in general. Vitesse is merely great Has anything changed in Vitesse's fundamentals? Well, yes. After a year of unbelievable growth, Vitesse looks set for a year of merely great growth. The company's revenue, which had climbed by 67% from the year-earlier period in the June quarter, rose 75% in September; earnings, after jumping 50% in June, climbed 62% in September. This caps a growth explosion at Vitesse -- the company grew earnings per share by 57% in fiscal 1998 and 100% in fiscal 1997. Next year, though, analysts are projecting only a 20% earnings increase, to 85 cents a share, in part because they feel the big expansion in manufacturing capacity that Vitesse got this year when it opened its second factory is over. I think the projection is low, and that the company will continue to increase its profit margins and to wring additional capacity out of its factories. So I'd put earnings growth for calendar 1999 at 35% -- to 97 cents a share. But for a stock trading at Vitesse's price-earnings ratio -- currently 62 -- a drop from 60% growth to 35% growth is very dangerous. When I set my $40 price target for the company, I used a P/E ratio of 53 -- slightly lower than the company's earnings growth rate. I wouldn't give the stock a higher P/E ratio next year on lower growth. Using a P/E ratio of 50, which is still pretty generous, I get a December 1999 price for Vitesse of $48.50 a share. That's only about $6 above the stock's current levels. So for me, Vitesse goes down as a sell. I'm dropping it from Jubak's Picks with this column with a gain of 152% since I recommended it in June 1997. http://moneycentral.msn.com/articles/invest/jubak/2851.asp Tim Fisher Ore-Rock-On and Pacific Fishery Biologists WWW Sites Tim@OreRockOn.com WWW: http://OreRockOn.com See naked fish and rocks! - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "S Menon" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] DGO Weekly Highs Date: 22 Dec 1998 13:42:01 PST Thanks Joe. >From: "Joe Scott" >To: >Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] DGO Weekly Highs >Date: Tue, 22 Dec 1998 09:21:36 -0500 >Reply-To: canslim@lists.xmission.com > >No search or (scanning?) capabilities at all,, it offers several reports of >highest RS , new highs, that type of thing, etc. but as for scans it offers >nothing,, you can't even create your own watch lists,, I find it very >limiting, but I like the look and feel of the chart, and fundamental >information it gives for the stocks is very good, .. .. >I also find it to be very slow at times bringing up the chart,, > >I also have TC2000,, and I love it,, I have it on a no charge promo from >Schwab for 6 months... >Just my opinion... > >joe > > > >- > > ______________________________________________________ Get Your Private, Free Email at http://www.hotmail.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "twells5" Subject: [CANSLIM] Charting software for CANSLIM Date: 22 Dec 1998 19:31:47 -0500 Bill, I'm very new to canslim... and stock investing in general... but having seen both WOW and TC2000, I would definately suggest that you check out the QP2 plus software before buying either. I think it is a better all around package and the price is right. The web address is www.qp2.com. Tim W. - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "John Adair, M.D." Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] DGO Weekly Highs Date: 22 Dec 1998 20:06:53 -0600 I think DGO is good for someone with limited experience in picking stocks.There are many sources to get similar information but not all inthe same place. I love it and it is a good buy if you get one monthly book and the DGO for $500.00. I like the sorting of stocks into "A" rated for timeliness, 100 fastest growing companies, top 100 rs, eps and 100 moving up in rating and down. I am sold on the DGO. I use it in conjunction with excel and back to quotes plus2 for further analysis. If you have got an extra 500 its worth it. I personally need all the help I can get. John Adair Anindo Majumdar wrote: > How much does the DGO service cost and is it worth it ? Comments. > > Thanks > Anindo > > > > DG books are the Daily Graphs books published by Wm O'Neil's IBD > > (Investors Business Daily) newspaper. > > > > And, of course, DGO is Daily Graphs Online. > > > > The DG books only include several thousand stocks, while DGO has all > > stocks but only has complete CANSLIM data on the ones in the books. > > The rest have some CS data but lack things like ROE, Timeliness, and > > up/down ratio. > > > > Tom W > > > > -----Original Message----- > > From: james sullivan > > To: canslim@lists.xmission.com > > Date: Saturday, December 19, 1998 7:38 PM > > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] DGO Weekly Highs > > > > > > >No surprise, nrs down this week. Of all the stocks in the DG books, > > >only 223 made new highs, and of them 121 had both RS and EPS of 80 or > > >better > > > > Tom, what are "DG books"?? > > > > thanks > > > > > > - > > > > > > > > - > > > > > > - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] THQI Date: 22 Dec 1998 21:37:45 -0500 I recognize that the Q4 is their peak qtr, but as I said, even if they double what they did past 2 qtrs, they still fall short of a year ago. And I'm willing to bet many investors expect them to solidly beat year ago earnings with all the hot new games. Just an opinion, not a stock I've followed closely or researched, simply an opinion on the fundies. Tom W -----Original Message----- Tom, it's Xmas, the expectations are that they should have double the earnings this qtr because their games are very popular. My kids want most of them ;) It is basing, still way high on my watch list, I want in again for the next run up. Very positive commentary on it from The Street and MF lately. At 07:15 AM 12/22/98 -0500, you wrote: >Bill, I don't see it as overextended. All the CS elements look decent. >But from a fundis standpoint, I would be concerned that it must do 52 >cents in Q4 (double what it did in each of the last two qtrs) just to >meet analyst's expectations. And at 52 cents, it still would fall >short of year ago Q4. > >Tom W > >-----Original Message----- >From: Mypiason3@aol.com >To: canslim@xmission.com >Date: Monday, December 21, 1998 2:09 PM >Subject: [CANSLIM] THQI > > >Canslim stock but is it overextended? How is the chart? It looked >like it >was forming a head and shoulders top? Anyone? > >Bill White > Tim Fisher, 1995 President, Pacific Fishery Biologists Ore-ROCK-On Rockhounding Web Site PFB Information mailto:tim@OreRockOn.com WWW http://OreRockOn.com - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] DGO Weekly Highs Date: 22 Dec 1998 22:24:43 -0500 There's no direct search or scanning capability, tho some of the lists are already a result of scans. I think all the lists however can be downloaded in either a Lotus or Excel file, and you can then use those software packages to sort and sift. Lacking either program, I just use the old fashioned digital technology method, you know, print the report then slide the first digit of the right hand down the printed page?? They have indicated that they plan to add scanning capability in the future, but no specifics on what will be possible. Scanning was a big issue during the year long beta testing. So far they are slow to make changes, and careful in what they do to ensure it will work. They are also very good in responding to email, I usually get a response within 12 hours, and most of my emails are sent when the West Coast is still 4 or 5 hours from even waking up. For me the greatest value is that I am getting authentic CANSLIM data directly from Wm O'Neil's shop, something that I have grown accustomed to over the past 7 years or so. And with DGO, unlike DG, I get at least partial data on every publicly traded stock. I don't have to wait for it to meet the criteria of volume or price or a few other standards to make its way into the book. Tom W -----Original Message----- Tom, Is there any search capability ? I could not see anything in the Demo. Thanks SMenon >From: "Tom Worley" >To: >Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] DGO Weekly Highs >Date: Mon, 21 Dec 1998 21:36:04 -0500 >Reply-To: canslim@lists.xmission.com > >It's obviously worth it to me as I am a subscriber. > >The annual cost is $720, higher if you subscribe for shorter periods >(monthly for example is about $67). However the cheapest way to go is >to subscribe to one of the DB books on a monthly basis (cost >$295/year) then take the discounted offer for book subscribers ($299) >for a total cost annually of $530. > >Check out the full pricing if interested at >http://www.dailygraphs.com/download.htm > >There are several cheaper options, including a free demo and a cheap 7 >day trial, so that you can see the features and charts in case you've >never seen it before. There is also a cheap ($43 for both NYSE and >NASDAQ/AMEX books) for four weeks for the printed version. > >Tom W >-----Original Message----- >From: Anindo Majumdar >To: canslim@lists.xmission.com >Date: Monday, December 21, 1998 9:07 PM >Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] DGO Weekly Highs > > >How much does the DGO service cost and is it worth it ? Comments. > >Thanks >Anindo >> >> DG books are the Daily Graphs books published by Wm O'Neil's IBD >> (Investors Business Daily) newspaper. >> >> And, of course, DGO is Daily Graphs Online. >> >> The DG books only include several thousand stocks, while DGO has all >> stocks but only has complete CANSLIM data on the ones in the books. >> The rest have some CS data but lack things like ROE, Timeliness, and >> up/down ratio. >> >> Tom W >> >> -----Original Message----- >> From: james sullivan >> To: canslim@lists.xmission.com >> Date: Saturday, December 19, 1998 7:38 PM >> Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] DGO Weekly Highs >> >> >> >No surprise, nrs down this week. Of all the stocks in the DG books, >> >only 223 made new highs, and of them 121 had both RS and EPS of 80 >or >> >better >> >> Tom, what are "DG books"?? >> >> thanks >> >> >> - >> >> >> >> - >> >> > > >- > > > > > >- > ______________________________________________________ Get Your Private, Free Email at http://www.hotmail.com - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "S Menon" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] DGO Weekly Highs - Thanks Tom. Date: 22 Dec 1998 19:35:32 PST Thanks Tom. >From: "Tom Worley" >To: >Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] DGO Weekly Highs >Date: Tue, 22 Dec 1998 22:24:43 -0500 >Reply-To: canslim@lists.xmission.com > >There's no direct search or scanning capability, tho some of the lists >are already a result of scans. I think all the lists however can be >downloaded in either a Lotus or Excel file, and you can then use those >software packages to sort and sift. Lacking either program, I just use >the old fashioned digital technology method, you know, print the >report then slide the first digit of the right hand down the printed >page?? > >They have indicated that they plan to add scanning capability in the >future, but no specifics on what will be possible. Scanning was a big >issue during the year long beta testing. So far they are slow to make >changes, and careful in what they do to ensure it will work. They are >also very good in responding to email, I usually get a response within >12 hours, and most of my emails are sent when the West Coast is still >4 or 5 hours from even waking up. > >For me the greatest value is that I am getting authentic CANSLIM data >directly from Wm O'Neil's shop, something that I have grown accustomed >to over the past 7 years or so. And with DGO, unlike DG, I get at >least partial data on every publicly traded stock. I don't have to >wait for it to meet the criteria of volume or price or a few other >standards to make its way into the book. > >Tom W > >-----Original Message----- >From: S Menon >To: canslim@lists.xmission.com >Date: Tuesday, December 22, 1998 8:45 AM >Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] DGO Weekly Highs > > >Tom, >Is there any search capability ? I could not see anything in the Demo. > >Thanks >SMenon > > > >>From: "Tom Worley" >>To: >>Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] DGO Weekly Highs >>Date: Mon, 21 Dec 1998 21:36:04 -0500 >>Reply-To: canslim@lists.xmission.com >> >>It's obviously worth it to me as I am a subscriber. >> >>The annual cost is $720, higher if you subscribe for shorter periods >>(monthly for example is about $67). However the cheapest way to go is >>to subscribe to one of the DB books on a monthly basis (cost >>$295/year) then take the discounted offer for book subscribers ($299) >>for a total cost annually of $530. >> >>Check out the full pricing if interested at >>http://www.dailygraphs.com/download.htm >> >>There are several cheaper options, including a free demo and a cheap >7 >>day trial, so that you can see the features and charts in case you've >>never seen it before. There is also a cheap ($43 for both NYSE and >>NASDAQ/AMEX books) for four weeks for the printed version. >> >>Tom W >>-----Original Message----- >>From: Anindo Majumdar >>To: canslim@lists.xmission.com >>Date: Monday, December 21, 1998 9:07 PM >>Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] DGO Weekly Highs >> >> >>How much does the DGO service cost and is it worth it ? Comments. >> >>Thanks >>Anindo >>> >>> DG books are the Daily Graphs books published by Wm O'Neil's IBD >>> (Investors Business Daily) newspaper. >>> >>> And, of course, DGO is Daily Graphs Online. >>> >>> The DG books only include several thousand stocks, while DGO has >all >>> stocks but only has complete CANSLIM data on the ones in the books. >>> The rest have some CS data but lack things like ROE, Timeliness, >and >>> up/down ratio. >>> >>> Tom W >>> >>> -----Original Message----- >>> From: james sullivan >>> To: canslim@lists.xmission.com >>> Date: Saturday, December 19, 1998 7:38 PM >>> Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] DGO Weekly Highs >>> >>> >>> >No surprise, nrs down this week. Of all the stocks in the DG >books, >>> >only 223 made new highs, and of them 121 had both RS and EPS of 80 >>or >>> >better >>> >>> Tom, what are "DG books"?? >>> >>> thanks >>> >>> >>> - >>> >>> >>> >>> - >>> >>> >> >> >>- >> >> >> >> >> >>- >> > > >______________________________________________________ >Get Your Private, Free Email at http://www.hotmail.com > >- > > > >- > ______________________________________________________ Get Your Private, Free Email at http://www.hotmail.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Joe Scott" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] DGO ... slow Date: 22 Dec 1998 10:42:18 -0500 Johan,, No I haven't,, but at times it crawls... I was going to drop the service,, I tryed it for a quarter,, and forgot to cancel... Now I'm in for one more quarter then won't renew it... I just don't feel its worth the cost... I'll use TC2000 from now on,,, joe - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Bill Triffet" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Charting software for CANSLIM Date: 22 Dec 1998 21:02:36 -0800 Tim, I dl'd the earler demo version of this program a while back. I forgot all about it. I just checked out again on the web site. It looks like it exports Metastock compatible data for use in other apps like Windows on Wallstreet. 18.95 a month isn't out of line. I'll check into it. Thanks Bill > I'm very new to canslim... and stock investing in general... but having >seen both WOW and TC2000, I would definately suggest that you check out the >QP2 plus software before buying either. I think it is a better all around >package and the price is right. >The web address is www.qp2.com. > > Tim >W. - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Bill Triffet" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Charting software for CANSLIM Date: 22 Dec 1998 21:02:36 -0800 Tim, I dl'd the earler demo version of this program a while back. I forgot all about it. I just checked out again on the web site. It looks like it exports Metastock compatible data for use in other apps like Windows on Wallstreet. 18.95 a month isn't out of line. I'll check into it. Thanks Bill > I'm very new to canslim... and stock investing in general... but having >seen both WOW and TC2000, I would definately suggest that you check out the >QP2 plus software before buying either. I think it is a better all around >package and the price is right. >The web address is www.qp2.com. > > Tim >W. - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Bill Triffet" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Charting Software for CANSLIM Date: 22 Dec 1998 21:09:35 -0800 Is the their data service (30 month) the only way to get EOD stock updates? Thanks, Bill > >TC2000, for windows, is a great screening tool. While you cant short list >on each of the specific canslim criteria. You can get very close with >combinations of other factors, such as range and beta. > >Email me directly if you have any specific questions about the screens I >have set up. > >Happy Holidays. > >Tony > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Bill Triffet" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Charting Software for CANSLIM Date: 22 Dec 1998 21:18:20 -0800 Scott, Looks like I've narrowed it down to TC2000 or Qoutes Plus 2. It's the data service that I'm trying to cut costs on. I wish my brokerage house (Fidelity) offered this kind of service. 29.75 month is a bit steep for me. Then agian, if I can increase my returns in successful picks, it should be worth it. Thanks, Bill >I think that the Worden Brothers have done a fine job with TC2000. > >They do not have IBD specific indicators such as RS and EPS, but EPS at least >can be approximated. While not canslim, the Worden's put notes about stocks in >every day that I find very useful. > >The other thing that the software does not provide for that I find frustrating, >is a programable way to do scans. The scans that they allow however seem to be >very powerful. > >Also, they have some proprietary indicators of their own that I think are >pretty useful: Moneystream, Time Segmented Volume, and Balance of Power. > >You can try it for 30 days for free to see what it is like. > >Scott - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Charles Cangialosi" Subject: [CANSLIM] WOW Date: 23 Dec 1998 04:54:50 -0500 Bill, I bought WOW internet trader deluxe. It does charting really well. There is a slight downside however. 1: The discs do not adjust for splits and I have encountered some other errors as well. Mostly having to do with incorrect volume. When I called cust. svc. they said they were aware of some of them and when I purchase the quarterly discs at 99 annual fee they will be corrected. Also if you want to do scans it can be expensive monthly, you only get limited quotes per day unless you go for the 39.99 a month service. I saw ad's for TC2000 they are 29.99 and you dont need to buy software. Though I like the capability of WOW, they succeeded in pissing me off so I am keeping the program not subscribing to their service and have purchased Q2 with IRL instead, I understand this can be transported into WOW. I have not received them yet so I dont have any other info. To be fair I know there are other versions of WOW. They may be a lot better. They were recommended and the Internet trader was not. e: Mon, 21 Dec 1998 21:26:34 -0800 I hope this question hasn't been beat to the ground but... I'm looking at TC2000 or Windows on Wallstreet for camslim searching. Up till now I've been going through my IBD (which is slow and untimely) then following up on some of the fine searchs folks have posted here. What are the strengths and weaknesses of each package as a screening tool? Both, it appears make their money on the required data service. What is the level of data required to get good scans ie, both have several levels of data pricing. Is Daily Graphs a better way to go? I realize this is purely subjective but would really like to hear your comments/advise on this as I'm trying to reduce my screening time. Thanks in advance. Bill - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Ari Lawson Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] TC2000 Date: 23 Dec 1998 09:13:12 -0500 Joe, Can you please tell me where I can get the info I need to take a look at TC2000? Thanks Ari Joe Scott wrote: > Johan,, > No I haven't,, but at times it crawls... > I was going to drop the service,, I tryed it for a quarter,, and forgot to > cancel... Now I'm in for one more quarter then won't renew it... > I just don't feel its worth the cost... > I'll use TC2000 from now on,,, > > joe > > - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Connie Mack Rea Subject: [CANSLIM] Technical stuff [Connie Mack] Date: 23 Dec 1998 09:17:52 -0500 I've a few OBV/MF stocks and a comment on MU. MU first. The MF on MU is looking negatively divergent. Never a good sign, but remember this is a gross indication. I bought two small lots near the low, and I'll watch these closely. Should it break down through yesterday's low, support wouldn't come in until around 47. Think I saw that Merrill issued a downgrade. I also bought some MCH and RDRT. These are the OBV/MF stocks: MGG ART AIN IXX CTV RJF PDLI WMO WDR Make these checks before you buy. Check each in relation to the 50 and 100 EMA. The significance of these long term indicators changes as a market advances to the degree this one has. Check the 3/7/10 EMA for short term entry. Put the stock up to a 1-day/15-minute chart to determine entry for today; use, too, the MACD and stochastic. I depend on the EMA first and the MACD second. The stochastic is often too erratic. Double bottoms offer a further degree of safety whether they appear intermediately or at yearly low. Connie Mack - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Joe Scott" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] TC2000 Date: 23 Dec 1998 09:23:29 -0500 Ari,,,, Here you go,,, http://www.tc2000.com/ see if your broker offers any deals on it,, schwab offers a six month promo.. The more I use it the more I like it.. joe - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Dean Edwards" Subject: [CANSLIM]CDWC It takes courage to be a a pig Date: 24 Dec 1998 02:54:09 +1300 It takes courage to be a a pig. Here is my number 1 pick for next year. CDW COMPUTER (Nasdaq:CDWC) Merry Xmas and a happy new year to you all. Raphael met with Soros. "I've done the reseach on Jaguar" "What do you think?" "I really like the way the compay is performing. We'll be OK, I think in = the position we've taken." To Raphael's shock, Soros picked up the telephoned and ordered his traders: "Buy another quarter of a million shares of Jaguar." OK apparently meant different things to Raphael and Soros. To Raphael it meant "What we've done so far is OK. But lett's not commit ourselves to anythin= g more until we see how the land lies." To Soros it meant that if you like the situation now, why not follow you instincts and go with all you've got? "If the stock goes up", Soros went = on, "you buy more. You don't care how big the position gets as part of your portfolio. If you get it right, then build" Soros, explained Drukenmiller, argued that the way to build longterm retu= rns was "through preservation of capital and home runs. You can be far more aggressive when you're making profits. Many mangers, once they're up 30-4= 0 percent, will book their year (i.e trade very cautiously for the remainde= r of the year so as not to jeopardize the very good return that has already been realized) The way to attain truly superior long-tem returns is to gr= ind it out until you're up 30-40 percent, and then if you have the conviction= s, go for a 100 percent. If you can put together a few near-100 percent year= s and avoid down years, then you can achieve really outstanding long-term returns. >I thought readers might be interested in the following article based on = the >book, "The Mind of a Trader: Lessons in trading strategy from the world'= s >leading traders."(FT Pitman 1998) > >The Mind of a Trader: the most profitable trading tool of all. > >=93You made how much?=94 I screamed down the phone to the calm voice on = the >other >side of the Atlantic. Tapping away at my calculator, I continued in >disbelief, =93but that means you earned for Salomon Brothers an average = of >$250,000 each and every single trading day for 8 years!=94 I resisted th= e urge >to faint, or swear. > >I had spoken to many successful traders, but the conversation with Bill >Lipschutz, with whom I had had the above conversation, former Global Hea= d of >Foreign Exchange and Managing Director at Salomon Brother, stuck in my m= ind >for the size of his trading successes. > >This was my point of arrival, after having spoken and interviewed, even >cross-examined and interrogated, the world=92s leading traders. The orig= inal quest >was >to find what, if anything, they had in common despite their differences.= I >did >not want the trite and over-used =91cut your losses short, set stop-loss= es >etc. >etc.=92 type of insight. Traders know to cut their losses short, they wa= nt to >know they are cutting it short and not cutting a potential profit short. Too >often the trite rule has missed the real difficult issue. > >Nor did I want advice which only the professional trader could utilize o= r >understand. I wanted to discover something for professional and private >trader >alike. I wanted to rip out and hold in my hand for close inspection the very >heart of trading success. > >Any conclusions would be irresistibly and irrefutably strong (as well as >hopefully being insightful and original ) because it would relate to trading >itself, not just one product, or technique or tool or country. I was not >disappointed. > >The common element that linked them all, and separated them from their l= ess >successful colleagues was their frame of mind; their attitudes to tradin= g, >to >losses, to open positions, to profits, to success and failure. Indeed, t= hey >redefined success and failure itself. Their perspective was unlike that >exhibited by any less successful traders. They had a way of viewing trad= ing >such that if you were to force them to trade according to a particular >system, >they would still be more profitable than their colleagues using the same >system. They added a value to any potentially profitable trading techniq= ue >and >tool to turn it into a superior profit maker. > >If I had to list and summarize the main traits these leading traders >exemplified, they would be these: > >Opportunity knocks the door down >Since kindergarten each of us is taught to grab opportunities for they d= o >not >knock twice. It is precisely that type of advice, which is so useful in >other >walks of life that is detrimental in trading. > >Many traders, armed with their trading plan or strategy, will often hast= ily >and prematurely enter a trade. Their decision is often driven by fear; t= he >fear of the missed opportunity. Their mind will be screaming, =93quick g= et on >the trade, you=92re going to miss it, so what if all your criteria for >entering >a trade have not been met? Most of them have, so get on, the big traders >wouldn=92t hang around.=94 > >The inevitable result is that the trade will not be profitable or as >profitable as it would have been had the trader waited for the precise >moment >to strike. > >In trading the fear of the missed opportunity leads to many avoidable >losses. >And the game of trading is as much about avoiding losses as about captur= ing >profits. The leading traders have a different perspective on opportunity. >Counter-intuitively they know opportunity knocks once, twice and then ki= cks >the door down. They know that if this trade does not feel absolutely >perfect, >there will be another one along in a short while that will. That knowled= ge >alleviates and over-rides any fear. That knowledge is the key to unlocki= ng >greater profits by waiting for all the trade entry criteria to be met an= d >not >cutting corners. > >Bill Lipschutz summed it up when he said, =93Out of 250 trades in a year= , it >comes down to five, three of those will be wrong and you will lose a fortune >and two will be right and you will make a fortune; for the other 245 >trades-you should have been sitting on your hands.=94 > >Great traders tend to be risk averse There is a general perception, once >again more propagated by life and not trading experiences, that one need= s to >risk a lot to profit a lot. Every one of the traders I interviewed state= d >unequivocally that they were risk-averse. As Bernard Oppetit, Global Hea= d of >Equity Derivatives at Banque Paribas put it, =93you do not need to risk = a lot >to profit a lot.=94 Jon Najarian, CBOE Director and the Chairman of Merc= ury >Trading put it similarly, =93making money today is not more important th= an >being able to come back tomorrow.=94 > >Pat Arbor, chairman of the Chicago Board of Trade, warned against going = for >the =91home-run=92. His trading philosophy is based on =91una fagiola=92= ; one bean, >at a time into the bag. As one of the most experienced and successful >traders >on CBOT, he insists trying to put lots of =91beans into the bag=92 at on= ce will >result in most not going in. He counsels that the steady approach will >result >in far more profits in the longer run. > >The message is to wait, and wait for a high probability trade in the >knowledge >that they do exist and can lead to as great profit as more risky trades. >Moreover the danger of riskier trades is not only a loss, but also such = a >loss >that you have no funds left. > >Luck: Stacking the Odds Following on from the nature of traders as being >risk-averse, they have a knack for stacking the odds. As Lipchutz puts i= t, >=93I >happen to believe that by far the biggest component of trading success i= s >luck, it=92s not the rolling the dice type of luck, but stacking the odd= s.=94 >These top traders practice their risk aversion by ensuring the odds of a >successful outcome are heavily stacked in their favor. > >This is not only done by ample research and planning, but also recognizi= ng >that when they are in a good trade to =91push their luck.=92 As David Ky= te, >Chairman of the Kyte Group and the largest local on LIFFE put it, =91you= do >not >step in the way of a train that=92s going at full steam.=94 Najarian and= Kyte >both said, =93You make your own luck in this game=94 meaning that you st= ack the >odds of making a profitable trade by planning and waiting until all your >trade entry criteria are satisfied, if then the trade does prove to be a= s >lucrative as it promised you =91push your luck=92 by perhaps adding to t= he >position and riding it for all it is worth. > > >The Emotional Problem >Trader=92s attitude to their potential and existing positions is often a great >determinant of success. As every trader knows, the moment a trade is >executed, >everything is different. That is the point at which it becomes real, no >longer >digits on a screen and numbers in an account. Now expectation is joined = by >anticipation. The brain is joined by the heart. Reason is joined by emotion. >You exchange detachment for attachment. > >When you have an open position and you are looking to close it, you will >either have a profit or a loss. The emotions relating to each are quite >different. For instance, when sitting on a loss many traders experience hope >that the position will turn around because they fear and deny that it ma= y >not. It is for you to recognize these emotions and to discard them. Your >judgment has to be based on detached reason relating to your analysis of the >company. > >How you behave once you have an open position is all important. Without >clear >thinking you could exit too soon or too late. Your key concern with an o= pen >position is timing your exit. Of course there are times when you are >deciding >whether to add to a position, but generally you are concerned with exit. >With >an open position you are concerned with closing the position. In order t= o do >that an open position requires an open mind. > >=93The key is to be intellectually honest. You have to think of every da= y as a >clean slate. You've got to forget about your loss or how much you paid y= ou >have to treat each day as a completely new day. You have to start everyd= ay >with a blank page. Mark to market should be the rule so you start each d= ay >afresh. There is no expected profit or loss on the book so you have to start >from scratch each morning.=94 says Oppetit. > > >P**s poor planning produces pathetic performance Although an SAS motto, = the >above is equally applicable to trading. The top traders did not trade =91= by >the >seat of their pants.=92 Planning and its benefits was a key aspect to th= e way >they viewed the markets. The top traders plan =91what if=92 scenarios an= d think >about their response to each probable outcome. The main benefits were th= at >with plan in hand or in mind the trader=92s confidence is enhanced, fear= of >loss reduced and that in turn assists clear thinking and removal of hope= so >ensuring the trader stays focused on his original reason for entering th= e >trade. > >Oppetit summed this up well when he said, =93whether I get out at a prof= it or >loss does not matter.=94 Martin Burton, founder and Managing Director of >Monument Derivatives and former director of NatWest Markets was talking >about >the same thing when he said, =93it is not a 90 minute game=94. They both= know >that sticking to their plan is far more important than temporary blips i= n >their profit and loss accounts. > >Losses - a curious view The top traders were totally at ease with losing. >This is not something one expects from those at the top of their profession. >Although true in other walks of life, that perfection is to be striven f= or, >in trading perfection is not an option. Paul RT Johnson, Vice President = at >ING Securities and a Director on CBOT said bluntly, =93you are going to = be >wrong. You are not perfect.=94 > >The top traders would cut their loss and move on. The issue was not whet= her >the market may turn around if they hung in there. They cut their loss if= it >is what they had said they would do in their plan. They would get out at the >predetermined level. The discipline of sticking to the plan was primary = and >the real issue. To say =91cut your losses short=92 missed the whole poin= t and >was >of no help to anyone. By cutting their loss they would free up capital t= o >place in more profitable positions elsewhere, and free up mental energy = to >focus on new opportunities. Pat Arbor summed it up by saying, =93your fi= rst >loss is your best loss=94. Jon Najarian had a saying as to why =91cuttin= g losses >=92 >was so important, =93you can=92t eat like a bird and s**t like an elepha= nt.=94 > >Conclusion It is not possible to do justice to the wisdom and accumulate= d >experiences of the world=92s leading traders in a short article. However= , I >have tried to convey how their minds work in a way that apparently runs >against common intuition. These differing perspectives ensure that with = the >same tools and products to trade with as anyone else they make far more = in >profits because their minds are different. > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Robert Miller" Subject: [CANSLIM] DGO - sorting Date: 23 Dec 1998 09:52:07 -0500 I have found that DGO offers the best way to find stocks. I have used QuotesPlus, SuperCharts, and various other programs to scan for stocks, but then I have to go back and look for Canslim data in the paper. With DGO, I can sort the data in excel, which is the easiest method I have found. You can sort the following data: P/E ratio, timeliness, 52 week high and low, alpha, beta, market cap, avg. volume, group relative strength, industry group name, EPS rank, RS rank, SMR rank, A/D rank, and price. What I do is download all of the data for a week. By Thursday I have all of the data updated. I then combine all of the data into one spreadsheet. From here I can simultaneously sort all of the data. In addition, I add a column which shows the % of 52 week high so I can scan for stocks within 20% of their old high. This is by far the quickest and easiest (and also the best) method I have found for scanning stocks in all the programs I have tried. Rob - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Walter Stock Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] alternative to canslim Date: 23 Dec 1998 14:17:59 -0500 Hi Joe, I have been a member of the list for about the same time period as you have. During these months I have read the many posts on Canslim investing and HGS investing, Connie's daytrading methods, and other, briefer discussions of Pitbull, Farmer, and Turtle trading, which I have investigated on my own. Db has contributed a lot of material on classical technical analysis (trendlines, areas of support/resistance, etc...). I have tried to bring Elder and his Triple Screen to the table. I think that you are right about some members of the group becoming frustrated, because I see all of this non-Canslim material (including my own) being posted, and discussed. My own trading is arguably non-Canslim because I ignore a number of Canslim elements, use Elder, and trade big caps. I am always looking for more sharp arrows for the quiver. Williams sounds interesting. Over the holidays, would it be possible to take us through a historical trade that you have made, and showing us a little of Williams' method ? Thank you for an interesting post. Walter Joe J. wrote: > I have been a member of this list for quite some time now (my guess is > about 1 1/2 years). I used to follow CS but I don't any more. I stayed > on the Digest version of the list because I still enjoy some of the > posts (mostly on non-CS stuff like the software, good web sites, etc.). > I noticed that some of you are using Elder's triple screen to scan > stocks and that Connie will still post on his methods once in a while. > I have read Elder's book and also tested Connie's method. > > I just wanted to throw out one that you may not have heard of. Bill > Williams' Chaos Theory. He has two books out. The first is "Trading > Chaos" and the second is "New Trading Dimensions". If you only get one, > get the second one. > > In some respects, his methods are like CS where you are buying off a > base. However, you can toss what I consider vague concepts like the cup > and handle out the window and use the leveling of 3 moving averages > combined with two MACD's to identify your base. Then, you wait for a > fractal high or low on which to set your buy or sell stops. > Fundamentals are completely ignored in his method. You also know > exactly where to set stops, add to positions, and take profits. The > system works for shorts or longs. The rules are much clearer than CS, > in my opinion. > > I've used this system to enter a number of the internet companies in > what I consider a "safe" manner. I say that because I sense that some > of you have been a bit frustrated in missing this group because of lack > of earnings making it non-CS. I personally like the system because I'm > sure of where I'm going with it. It is much less subjective than CS, in > my opinion. I run a nightly scan on MetaStock and get my data from > QuotePlus2. > > One thing I have learned in my 10 years of investing/trading life is > that there are many methods that will make money and many that won't. > You have to find one that works for you. > > Just thought I'd throw that out there in case anyone is looking for a > good book to read over the holidays. > > Good Trading, > > Joe J. > > - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Bill Triffet" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] WOW Date: 23 Dec 1998 09:24:40 -0800 Charles, I think you hit the nail on the head. Their (WOW) data service is pricey. Quotes Plus is only 18.75 month for unlimited EOD quotes. Also, I went to their discussion forum (a link from their page) and found many happy users. I also saw many users willing to help with writting screens. Perhaps I'll do like you and eventually get WOW just for furthur screening as it will import Q2 data. TC2000 looks like the most popular but there again, the data is pricey. The key here for me is to be able to screen the whole market quickly without having to "pre-select" my initial choices. I'm doing that now and then going to various web sites for furthur analysis. While very free, It's also very time consumming. BTW, what does IRL do and is it in addition the regular data service? Thanks! Bill > I bought WOW internet trader deluxe. It does charting really well. There is >a slight downside however. 1: The discs do not adjust for splits and I have >encountered some other errors as well. Mostly having to do with incorrect >volume. When I called cust. svc. they said they were aware of some of them >and when I purchase the quarterly discs at 99 annual fee they will be >corrected. > Also if you want to do scans it can be expensive monthly, you only get >limited quotes per day unless you go for the 39.99 a month service. > I saw ad's for TC2000 they are 29.99 and you dont need to buy software. > Though I like the capability of WOW, they succeeded in pissing me off so I >am keeping the program not subscribing to their service and have purchased >Q2 with IRL instead, I understand this can be transported into WOW. I have >not received them yet so I dont have any other info. > To be fair I know there are other versions of WOW. They may be a lot >better. They were recommended and the Internet trader was not. - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: TM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] WOW Date: 23 Dec 1998 16:23:11 -0800 (PST) Bill, I second what Charlie says; I use WOW every day now. QP2 is a great service and only $204 a year after you buy the software for ~$70. I import the data from QP2 into WOW everynight, while not seamless, it is nearly so. If you ever want the steps I set up, let me know, I'll E-mail you privately. TM ---Charles Cangialosi wrote: > > Bill, > I bought WOW internet trader deluxe. It does charting really well. There is > a slight downside however. 1: The discs do not adjust for splits and I have > encountered some other errors as well. Mostly having to do with incorrect > volume. When I called cust. svc. they said they were aware of some of them > and when I purchase the quarterly discs at 99 annual fee they will be > corrected. > Also if you want to do scans it can be expensive monthly, you only get > limited quotes per day unless you go for the 39.99 a month service. > I saw ad's for TC2000 they are 29.99 and you dont need to buy software. > Though I like the capability of WOW, they succeeded in pissing me off so I > am keeping the program not subscribing to their service and have purchased > Q2 with IRL instead, I understand this can be transported into WOW. I have > not received them yet so I dont have any other info. > To be fair I know there are other versions of WOW. They may be a lot > better. They were recommended and the Internet trader was not. > > e: Mon, 21 Dec 1998 21:26:34 -0800 > From: "Bill Triffet" > Subject: [CANSLIM] Charting Software for CANSLIM > > I hope this question hasn't been beat to the ground but... > > I'm looking at TC2000 or Windows on Wallstreet for camslim searching. Up > till now I've been going through my IBD (which is slow and untimely) then > following up on some of the fine searchs folks have posted here. > > What are the strengths and weaknesses of each package as a screening tool? > Both, it appears make their money on the required data service. What is the > level of data required to get good scans ie, both have several levels of > data pricing. Is Daily Graphs a better way to go? I realize this is purely > subjective but would really like to hear your comments/advise on this as I'm > trying to reduce my screening time. > > Thanks in advance. > > Bill > > > - > > _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "John Adair, M.D." Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] excel sorting Date: 23 Dec 1998 18:59:55 -0600 Hi Robert I have been doing the same thing sort of. I ran into a wall when the columns didont match. How do you handle the mismatches. John Adair Robert Miller wrote: > I have found that DGO offers the best way to find stocks. I have used > QuotesPlus, SuperCharts, and various other programs to scan for stocks, but > then I have to go back and look for Canslim data in the paper. With DGO, I > can sort the data in excel, which is the easiest method I have found. You > can sort the following data: P/E ratio, timeliness, 52 week high and low, > alpha, beta, market cap, avg. volume, group relative strength, industry > group name, EPS rank, RS rank, SMR rank, A/D rank, and price. What I do is > download all of the data for a week. By Thursday I have all of the data > updated. I then combine all of the data into one spreadsheet. From here I > can simultaneously sort all of the data. In addition, I add a column which > shows the % of 52 week high so I can scan for stocks within 20% of their old > high. This is by far the quickest and easiest (and also the best) method I > have found for scanning stocks in all the programs I have tried. > > Rob > > - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: John Kraemer Subject: [CANSLIM] TGO Date: 23 Dec 1998 20:19:55 -0600 A company that I have been watching for a while and also have buying over the last two weeks is Teleglobe (TGO). The stock has just started moving out of a six month base on an increase in volume. Over the last few days the stock has hit a new high. The stock closed to day at 34 7/16, +1 5/16. Has anyone been following TGO? Exchange:NYSE EPS = 90 RS = 93 IGRS = A S+PM+ROE = B Acc/Distr = A 52 week low = 14 1/4 52 week high = 34 15/16 - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Peter D. Christiansen" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] TGO Date: 24 Dec 1998 10:36:03 +0700 I am following TGO, and bought some calls on it when it was trading around $31. So far so good. John Kraemer wrote: > A company that I have been watching for a while and also have buying over the last > two weeks is Teleglobe (TGO). The stock has just started moving out of a six month > base on an increase in volume. Over the last few days the stock has hit a new > high. The stock closed to day at 34 7/16, +1 5/16. Has anyone been following TGO? > > Exchange:NYSE > EPS = 90 > RS = 93 > IGRS = A > S+PM+ROE = B > Acc/Distr = A > 52 week low = 14 1/4 > 52 week high = 34 15/16 > > - -- Peter Christiansen Chiang Mai - Thailand * We can't be so fixated on our desire to preserve the rights of ordinary Americans... -- William J. Clinton, USA Today, March 11, 1993 * - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Robert Miller" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] excel sorting Date: 23 Dec 1998 23:09:57 -0500 John, I assume you mean that when you paste the columns together the tickers don't match anymore. I start by importing the printed index with the industry group data. This is updated over the weekend. The books are updated once a week. If you start here then the company list will remain unchanged through Friday night. After I have imported all five days ending with market cap, I use this last import as my main spreadsheet, since it has the most current price, RS, etc. I then paste all of the desired columns from the other imports into the main spreadsheet. I have never run across a mismatch this way. Mismatches will occur only if you use data from two different weeks. For example, if you start with timeliness and finish with industry group, then your data will not match. I hope this helps. Rob -----Original Message----- >Hi Robert >I have been doing the same thing sort of. I ran into a wall when the columns >didont match. How do you handle the mismatches. >John Adair > >Robert Miller wrote: > >> I have found that DGO offers the best way to find stocks. I have used >> QuotesPlus, SuperCharts, and various other programs to scan for stocks, but >> then I have to go back and look for Canslim data in the paper. With DGO, I >> can sort the data in excel, which is the easiest method I have found. You >> can sort the following data: P/E ratio, timeliness, 52 week high and low, >> alpha, beta, market cap, avg. volume, group relative strength, industry >> group name, EPS rank, RS rank, SMR rank, A/D rank, and price. What I do is >> download all of the data for a week. By Thursday I have all of the data >> updated. I then combine all of the data into one spreadsheet. From here I >> can simultaneously sort all of the data. In addition, I add a column which >> shows the % of 52 week high so I can scan for stocks within 20% of their old >> high. This is by far the quickest and easiest (and also the best) method I >> have found for scanning stocks in all the programs I have tried. >> >> Rob >> >> - > > >- > > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "twells5" Subject: [CANSLIM] Charting software Date: 23 Dec 1998 23:19:09 -0500 Bill, Yes, it exports to Metastock compatable software almost seamlessly as it downloads data each day, using a utility included with the package. I use Windows on Wall Street along with the chart program included in the package and have not had any problems. Tim W. - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] alternative to canslim Date: 24 Dec 1998 07:40:33 -0500 Walter, You are correct that some of us are frustrated by all this non-CANSLIM posting on a CANSLIM dedicated board. I find myself deleting well over half the posts I receive from the mail list manager without ever reading them, as I am not interested in the virtues of various automated sorting software packages, or how to make them emulate Wm O'Neil's often proprietary formulas. Likewise, I'm not interested in trying other investment strategies other than CANSLIM, been there, done that, lost my money and gravitated to CANSLIM. That's why I am a member here. It's especially frustrating when much of this has been discussed time and time again, and can be found in the CANSLIM archives if someone wants to take the time to go back and search for it. Certainly any member has a right to post on non-CANSLIM topics, but I for one would greatly appreciate it if the discussion could be continued off this board. In the past when I have posted something off topic, I have requested members to respond privately to me. Some do, some simply hit Reply To Sender, in which case their response goes back to the Mail List Manager instead of the author, and we all end up getting it. When this happens, it's not much trouble to delete the address in the "TO" line then cut and paste in the original sender's address from his or her email, in most cases already included in the response. Another alternative would be to post a site available where such discussion is already taking place. Then those that have an interest can go there. But with a number of indexes hitting new highs, and VIX having FINALLY broken 20 to the downside, I'd prefer to spend my Christmas weekend reading and discussing matters related to CANSLIM, such as are we seeing the result of a new double bottom in the NYSE? If so, why is the RS still in a nearly 3 month long downtrend compared to the S&P500? Is this only because the S&P500 has large cap stocks, presumably of better quality, compared to the entire NYSE? (HINT: look at the Russell 2000, composed of just small cap stocks, for a possible answer). And finally, what does this tell us, if anything, about the all important "M"??? Thanks to all the members who continue to post on CANSLIM topics or post their CS stocks. I am still over 50% cash, and plan to spend much of my holiday weekend searching for some new investment "gifts" for myself. I hope all members have a happy and joyous holiday weekend no matter how you spend it. Tom W -----Original Message----- I think that you are right about some members of the group becoming frustrated, because I see all of this non-Canslim material (including my own) being posted, and discussed. My own trading is arguably non-Canslim because I ignore a number of Canslim elements, use Elder, and trade big caps. I am always looking for more sharp arrows for the quiver. Williams sounds interesting. Over the holidays, would it be possible to take us through a historical trade that you have made, and showing us a little of Williams' method ? - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: John Kraemer Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] TGO Date: 24 Dec 1998 15:48:49 -0600 FYI - Teleglobe (TGO) is featured in IBD's Companies in the New section today (Thursday, Dec. 24, 1998) on page B20. Anyone following this company? What are your thoughts about the company? John Kraemer wrote: > A company that I have been watching for a while and also have buying over the last > two weeks is Teleglobe (TGO). The stock has just started moving out of a six month > base on an increase in volume. Over the last few days the stock has hit a new > high. The stock closed today at 34 7/16, +1 5/16. Has anyone been following TGO? > > Exchange:NYSE > EPS = 90 > RS = 93 > IGRS = A > S+PM+ROE = B > Acc/Distr = A > 52 week low = 14 1/4 > 52 week high = 34 15/16 > > - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] TGO Date: 24 Dec 1998 17:17:21 -0500 John, If I was already in it, I might hold on and hope for the best (e.g. they announce they just opened an internet telecom auction site or some such). But for a fresh buy, it doesn't offer much. ROE is only 12%, 5 year growth rate is only 14%, this year's earnings forecast is for a gain of 9% after a cut in estimates, and only 21% for next year. Most important to me is that while net EPS has been growing, sales have not. Tom W -----Original Message----- FYI - Teleglobe (TGO) is featured in IBD's Companies in the New section today (Thursday, Dec. 24, 1998) on page B20. Anyone following this company? What are your thoughts about the company? John Kraemer wrote: > A company that I have been watching for a while and also have buying over the last > two weeks is Teleglobe (TGO). The stock has just started moving out of a six month > base on an increase in volume. Over the last few days the stock has hit a new > high. The stock closed today at 34 7/16, +1 5/16. Has anyone been following TGO? > > Exchange:NYSE > EPS = 90 > RS = 93 > IGRS = A > S+PM+ROE = B > Acc/Distr = A > 52 week low = 14 1/4 > 52 week high = 34 15/16 > > - - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Peter D. Christiansen" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] TGO Date: 25 Dec 1998 11:16:21 +0700 While the 5 year growth rate is only 14%, the three year growth rate is 36.862%. They also have a history of beating earnings estimates. The chart speaks for itself. Tom Worley wrote: > John, > > If I was already in it, I might hold on and hope for the best (e.g. > they announce they just opened an internet telecom auction site or > some such). But for a fresh buy, it doesn't offer much. ROE is only > 12%, 5 year growth rate is only 14%, this year's earnings forecast is > for a gain of 9% after a cut in estimates, and only 21% for next year. > Most important to me is that while net EPS has been growing, sales > have not. > > Tom W > > -----Original Message----- > From: John Kraemer > To: canslim@lists.xmission.com > Date: Thursday, December 24, 1998 4:55 PM > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] TGO > > FYI - > > Teleglobe (TGO) is featured in IBD's Companies in the New section > today (Thursday, > Dec. 24, 1998) on page B20. Anyone following this company? What are > your thoughts > about the company? > > John Kraemer wrote: > > > A company that I have been watching for a while and also have buying > over the last > > two weeks is Teleglobe (TGO). The stock has just started moving out > of a six month > > base on an increase in volume. Over the last few days the stock has > hit a new > > high. The stock closed today at 34 7/16, +1 5/16. Has anyone been > following TGO? > > > > Exchange:NYSE > > EPS = 90 > > RS = 93 > > IGRS = A > > S+PM+ROE = B > > Acc/Distr = A > > 52 week low = 14 1/4 > > 52 week high = 34 15/16 > > > > - > > - > > - -- Peter Christiansen Chiang Mai - Thailand * "Happiness is that state of consciousness which proceeds from the achievement of one's values." -- "Atlas Shrugged" * - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Charles Cangialosi" Subject: [CANSLIM] Options Date: 26 Dec 1998 11:16:24 -0500 Hi, This is non-canslim. If anyone is willing to answer a question or two on options please email me off list. Thanks Charlie - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Bill Triffet" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] WOW - end of thread. Date: 26 Dec 1998 17:00:50 -0800 Thanks one and all for the advise on charting software. I asked these questions on the Investors forum at Compuserve and got no response. That was when I posted here. My apologies for any inconvenience this has caused anyone here. I will in the future keep all my posts directly CANSLIM related as this will reduce everyones time spent going through the many messages here. Happy Holidays! Bill >Bill, > >I second what Charlie says; I use WOW every day now. QP2 is a great >service and only $204 a year after you buy the software for ~$70. I >import the data from QP2 into WOW everynight, while not seamless, it >is nearly so. If you ever want the steps I set up, let me know, I'll >E-mail you privately. > >TM - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Ronald J. Russell, Jr." Subject: [CANSLIM] Re: Saving Weekly Stock List to Excel Date: 26 Dec 1998 21:47:30 -0500 Catch up day here! On December 14, John Adair Wrote: Hi Ronald Thanks of tid data. I would like to save this to excel . Do you know how I can save this in to excel from this net mail. John Adair John, I don't know about net mail but I do send out a self extracting archive of the full Weekly Stock List to those who have requested it. The archive expands into two files, first an Excel 97 workbook, and second a comma delimited file for those who do not have Excel 97. The contents of both files are identical and contain far more data than I am able to post here. If you (or anyone else) want to be added to my list, just drop a private email to me at ronrussell@home.com. Ron - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Ronald J. Russell, Jr." Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] DGO Weekly Highs Date: 26 Dec 1998 22:21:13 -0500 Joe, During the Beta phase I corresponded with DGO technical support over = some issue or another and they indicated that a full scanning engine was = in their plans. I have no idea if this is still true or for when it = might be planned but I guess we can always hope. Ron Joe Scott wrote: No search or (scanning?) capabilities at all,, it offers several reports = of highest RS , new highs, that type of thing, etc. but as for scans it = offers nothing,, you can't even create your own watch lists,, I find it = very limiting, but I like the look and feel of the chart, and = fundamental information it gives for the stocks is very good, .. .. I also find it to be very slow at times bringing up the chart,, I also have TC2000,, and I love it,, I have it on a no charge promo from = Schwab for 6 months... Just my opinion... joe - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Ronald J. Russell, Jr." Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] DGO - sorting Date: 26 Dec 1998 22:54:25 -0500 On Wed, 23 Dec 1998 at 09:52:07 -0500 Robert Miller wrote: I have found that DGO offers the best way to find stocks. I have used = QuotesPlus, SuperCharts, and various other programs to scan for stocks, = but then I have to go back and look for Canslim data in the paper. With = DGO, I can sort the data in excel, which is the easiest method I have = found. You can sort the following data: P/E ratio, timeliness, 52 week = high and low, alpha, beta, market cap, avg. volume, group relative = strength, industry group name, EPS rank, RS rank, SMR rank, A/D rank, = and price. What I do is download all of the data for a week. By = Thursday I have all of the data updated. I then combine all of the data = into one spreadsheet. From here I can simultaneously sort all of the = data. In addition, I add a column which shows the % of 52 week high so = I can scan for stocks within 20% of their old high. This is by far the = quickest and easiest (and also the best) method I have found for = scanning stocks in all the programs I have tried. Rob Rob, This is very similar to how I use the Weekly Stock List I compile. I = download the "Daily Graphs Printed Product Co. Index" each day (For = those unfamiliar with DGO, this report reflects all of the stocks that = are printed in the weekly DG hard copy books. Each day has different = data available and is easily exported to Excel.) and then combine the = five days together with some additional data from QP2 and StockQuest = using Access. I export the results back to Excel and, after some = additional massaging for mostly cosmetic reasons, I have the final = product. In addition to sorting, the "AutoFilter" (Data - Filter - AutoFilter) = function is very useful. With this function on, you can set filter = criteria for as many columns as you would like. One I do each week I = call 9090AAA. As you can probably guess, it pulls out all stocks with = EPS 90+, RS 90+, GRS =3D A (80+), A/D =3D A and SMR =3D A. This weeks = 9090AAA list is: APCC AMERICAN POWR CONVERSION AVEI ARTERIAL VASCULAR ENG CBUK CUTTER & BUCK INC CBXC CYBEX COMPUTER PRODUCTS CDWC C D W COMPUTER CENTERS CHKPF CHECK POINT SOFTWAR TECH CMED COLORADO MEDTECH INC CMVT COMVERSE TECHNOLOGY CREE CREE RESEARCH DDDDF NEW DIMENSION SOFTWARE DSP D S P COMMUNICATIONS INC EMC E M C CORP MASS FLEX FLEXTRONICS INTL LTD GDT GUIDANT CORP INSS INTL NETWORK SVCS ITWO I TWO TECHNOLOGIES LEVL LEVEL ONE COMMUNICATIONS MELI MELITA INTL CORP MRX MEDICIS PHARMACEUT CL A NETA NETWORK ASSOCIATES INC ORBKF ORBOTECH LTD ORCL ORACLE CORP PLCE CHILDRENS PLACE RETAIL PSDI PROJECT SOFTWARE & DEV RESM RESMED INC SANM SANMINA CORP SCH SCHWAB CHARLES CORP SLR SOLECTRON CORP TAGS TARRANT APPAREL GROUP THQI T H Q INC VTSS VITESSE SEMICONDUCTOR WSM WILLIAMS SONOMA INC XLSW EXCEL SWITCHING CORP I cut and paste the symbols from this list and a few others into QP2 = lists which I then use as input to additional scans as well as to export = data from QP2 to MetaStock for yet more scans and study. Ron PS. I'll be posting this weeks full list shortly. - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Ronald J. Russell, Jr." Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Applying classic Elder to current Canslim "M" Date: 26 Dec 1998 23:06:41 -0500 For those (like myself) who have been searching for the series Walter = referred to, there are some posts in v02.n291 through v02.n294. The = real meat of the series seems to be a little later in v02.n317 through = v02.n320. Ron - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] DGO New Highs Date: 27 Dec 1998 07:12:53 -0500 Considering that it wasn't all that spectacular a week, and VIX moved back up, I was surprised to see that 355 of the stocks in the Daily Graphs books made new highs. Of this number, 179 also had RS/EPS of 80/80 or better. Considering that the overall new highs/lows nrs are pretty anemic, this suggests to me a greater focus on stocks with above average earnings. Here's the list: SYKE, AVTC, FDS, IPL, WHIT, SAI, RESM, PLXS, FNM, OCLI, LXK, APCC, SAH, DY, SAPE, SUNW, SONC, FIC, WATR, BELFA, SNPS, DNEX, T, RMBS, AEG, SDLI, BEBE, LLTC, DV, SDG, CTXS, VTSS, AMGN, CREE, PROX, SANM, AIG, ABH, PBI, LEVL, MDT, NSIT, BELFB, DHR, TSS, UVSGA, SBL, GNTX, MVSN, YHOO, SNRZ, BJ, CPRT, URS, CMED, NDC, NLCS, ACXM, CTSH, NSOL, VOD, WCOM, CSCO, KROG, NTAP, ESRX, GNE, AMSY, MYE, EBAY, JP, GKSRA, TSAI, XLSW, ASND, SWY, NTRS, LIN, ZQK, PRFN, AFL, MYG, EAGL, SALT, CPWR, BBC, CNMD, FTEN, AIB, DORL, CEFT, CLFY, WMT, METZ, VCI, LSTR, INSS, MCCO, SPEQ, BHW, FCBK, ASO, MTP, ORCL, NVR, LU, CPS, SPLS, MLM, JWB, IK, CDWC, TGO, FM, WAT, ANF, FLEX, AVEI, DELL, EWB, BOBJY, INOC, ORLY, SCH, HHS, RAIL, RI, MSFT, NOKA, OVRL, GISX, FRE, CTS, CAKE, MWHS, TYC, FISV, TAGS, COST, ACS, PG, PCCC, LOW, TSFW, WABC, JWA, NETA, BK, CCL, HDI, NDN, DDDDG, RX, ATI, LGTO, FSR, HD, JEC, PVN, SLR, MNMD, EL, GE, PDX, ECL, MHP, GDT, FMY, SBC, PGR, IPG, POS, PLT, WAG, IBM, KSS, KR, CTL, GPS. Whew, hope this list doesn't get much bigger (just kidding). Takes me back to my days as a crypto officer typing random groups of five letters. Anyway, hope someone finds something useful here. Tom W - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Ronald J. Russell, Jr." Subject: [CANSLIM] Weekly Stock List - 12/24/1998 Date: 26 Dec 1998 23:20:02 -0500 All, The list is down to 206 this week. Also, the Alpha and Beta numbers are = old. Somehow I lost this week's numbers - pre holiday rush I guess. Trade Well, Ron Symbol EPS RS GRS ERG A/D Close 30 ADV ABS 79 88 75 242 B $ 66.250 799,287=20 ACS 93 90 92 275 B $ 41.940 116,243=20 ACXM 94 86 92 272 A $ 29.250 549,973=20 AEOS 76 98 82 256 A $ 64.250 343,050=20 AGN 86 91 93 270 B $ 61.310 277,003=20 AGPH 75 95 91 261 A $ 54.000 558,237=20 AHAA 76 99 99 274 A $ 33.500 187,980=20 ALTR 82 96 99 277 A $ 57.500 2,064,393=20 AMGN 87 94 91 272 A $ 101.000 3,218,573=20 ANF 99 95 82 276 A $ 63.560 505,913=20 AOL 76 99 99 274 A $ 136.630 15,349,462=20 APCC 90 93 81 264 A $ 44.130 578,900=20 ARX 84 90 77 251 B $ 13.250 102,413=20 ASMLF 76 86 96 258 A $ 30.250 731,990=20 ASND 91 96 98 285 A $ 66.000 5,050,006=20 ATI 95 90 81 266 B $ 67.880 1,776,360=20 AVEI 99 93 83 275 A $ 52.880 2,003,040=20 AXNT 72 93 94 259 A $ 31.130 362,420=20 AZA 72 86 80 238 A $ 49.000 733,890=20 BBBY 96 90 86 272 A $ 31.380 1,430,387=20 BEL 73 85 84 242 A $ 57.810 1,823,337=20 BGEN 74 95 91 260 A $ 79.310 1,759,493=20 BK 83 88 62 233 A $ 38.250 1,397,330=20 BMY 76 86 63 225 A $ 127.880 1,592,843=20 BOOL 92 88 95 275 A $ 28.750 369,423=20 BPI 80 85 69 234 A $ 20.000 153,900=20 BRKT 96 85 88 269 B $ 17.000 177,113=20 BRL 88 90 73 251 A $ 44.250 119,630=20 BSYS 85 87 92 264 A $ 48.750 158,833=20 CAKE 85 95 69 249 B $ 30.060 187,397=20 CBUK 98 94 80 272 A $ 34.630 88,123=20 CBXC 97 97 81 275 A $ 25.500 115,030=20 CCL 91 92 63 246 A $ 44.810 2,442,424=20 CDWC 97 97 97 291 A $ 98.500 136,167=20 CEFT 98 96 69 263 A $ 38.880 584,670=20 CELL 99 85 97 281 A $ 13.310 1,161,923=20 CEN 79 87 92 258 B $ 69.500 345,470=20 CF 73 89 62 224 B $ 73.940 257,153=20 CHCS 79 98 82 259 A $ 22.810 103,943=20 CHKPF 99 91 94 284 A $ 41.000 1,060,450=20 CLFY 87 98 95 280 B $ 23.380 347,910=20 CLX 85 90 68 243 A $ 115.750 392,820=20 CMED 97 96 83 276 A $ 12.940 202,943=20 CMGI 77 99 86 262 A $ 121.880 1,292,213=20 CMVT 97 94 90 281 A $ 68.630 715,997=20 COF 91 92 69 252 A $ 121.130 463,590=20 CPWR 98 93 95 286 A $ 70.250 2,106,457=20 CREE 99 99 99 297 A $ 44.810 424,007=20 CSC 89 88 92 269 B $ 67.940 951,840=20 CSCO 97 97 98 292 A $ 94.190 13,607,634=20 CTAS 90 88 74 252 A $ 62.000 234,023=20 CTL 87 94 84 265 A $ 64.130 232,570=20 CTXS 98 93 95 286 A $ 88.690 727,850=20 CUBE 89 93 98 280 B $ 25.750 893,133=20 DANB 97 85 69 251 B $ 23.880 90,520=20 DDDDF 99 97 95 291 A $ 45.000 117,340=20 DELL 99 97 95 291 A $ 74.560 20,004,450=20 DH 84 86 71 241 B $ 49.380 2,301,957=20 DLTR 98 92 74 264 A $ 43.630 412,637=20 DMMC 73 86 91 250 B $ 14.380 129,907=20 DRTE 76 96 78 250 B $ 27.750 329,423=20 DSP 98 94 99 291 A $ 14.750 413,460=20 DV 87 93 61 241 A $ 28.190 122,557=20 DY 97 97 67 261 A $ 54.380 172,197=20 ECILF 93 87 90 270 A $ 35.880 489,883=20 ECSGY 96 90 92 278 B $ 30.000 95,480=20 EDMC 99 90 61 250 A $ 45.130 83,880=20 EL 88 91 62 241 B $ 80.630 234,403=20 EMC 96 97 98 291 A $ 81.630 2,951,510=20 ESRX 95 96 92 283 A $ 64.880 112,270=20 FAST 94 90 61 245 A $ 45.130 227,693=20 FISV 90 85 92 267 A $ 51.190 317,313=20 FLEX 98 98 99 295 A $ 81.250 487,023=20 FM 96 90 69 255 A $ 21.250 154,487=20 FMY 90 92 75 257 A $ 57.380 760,047=20 GDT 98 95 93 286 A $ 111.940 665,377=20 GENZ 90 93 91 274 B $ 43.880 1,005,098=20 GEOC 72 99 95 266 A $ 38.000 229,473=20 GILTF 96 94 90 280 A $ 53.500 199,740=20 GML 74 95 91 260 A $ 22.500 98,873=20 GPS 96 96 82 274 A $ 54.130 2,141,062=20 HD 93 96 61 250 A $ 60.000 3,396,626=20 HLI 87 86 65 238 A $ 57.440 86,400=20 HLYW 83 98 86 267 B $ 29.000 619,763=20 IBI 85 86 82 253 A $ 28.880 570,627=20 IBM 85 96 96 277 B $ 187.940 3,327,633=20 INSS 99 97 92 288 A $ 64.250 237,900=20 INTL 94 89 90 273 B $ 22.380 179,673=20 IONAY 96 92 95 283 A $ 35.000 140,217=20 IPG 89 90 76 255 A $ 75.630 313,130=20 ITWO 99 92 95 286 A $ 30.440 880,027=20 JKHY 99 89 88 276 A $ 48.130 122,203=20 JP 84 88 65 237 B $ 74.690 188,927=20 JVLN 76 93 88 257 B $ 13.880 77,150=20 KROG 80 97 73 250 A $ 35.630 114,137=20 LAF 93 87 72 252 A $ 40.000 110,480=20 LEVL 98 96 99 293 A $ 36.500 973,437=20 LGTO 99 97 95 291 A $ 62.250 536,110=20 LLTC 90 93 99 282 A $ 84.190 964,637=20 LLY 89 85 80 254 A $ 85.250 2,163,323=20 LOW 92 95 61 248 B $ 50.250 1,461,037=20 LSON 93 90 86 269 A $ 55.250 221,527=20 LU 97 96 90 283 A $ 107.500 6,065,754=20 LXK 97 97 81 275 A $ 93.250 463,747=20 MBRS 82 91 86 259 B $ 28.000 76,857=20 MCD 75 89 69 233 A $ 76.310 1,686,550=20 MCHP 70 94 98 262 A $ 37.500 801,157=20 MCRL 98 95 99 292 A $ 49.000 271,257=20 MCSC 98 97 85 280 B $ 25.630 87,603=20 MDT 80 90 83 253 A $ 75.380 1,672,607=20 MEDQ 95 94 86 275 B $ 34.750 239,923=20 MELI 94 96 90 280 A $ 18.750 81,333=20 MERQ 72 96 95 263 A $ 58.000 204,680=20 METZ 99 91 86 276 A $ 44.630 515,027=20 MHP 83 90 87 260 B $ 103.060 305,550=20 MLM 85 91 72 248 A $ 56.560 101,667=20 MMGR 98 86 78 262 A $ 28.630 135,350=20 MNMD 98 98 93 289 B $ 101.810 104,590=20 MRX 93 93 80 266 A $ 60.000 119,080=20 MSFT 97 94 94 285 A $ 141.750 13,698,117=20 MTD 95 92 64 251 B $ 27.880 108,370=20 MTP 82 94 66 242 B $ 55.940 216,670=20 MXIM 95 91 99 285 A $ 43.000 1,445,707=20 MXWL 70 96 66 232 B $ 39.130 86,967=20 MYG 95 91 76 262 A $ 61.750 465,750=20 NCOG 98 93 86 277 A $ 37.060 149,777=20 NDC 96 88 92 276 A $ 46.060 173,657=20 NEG 85 88 66 239 B $ 54.750 168,803=20 NETA 99 96 94 289 A $ 66.000 2,164,783=20 NLCS 88 95 95 278 B $ 36.380 160,830=20 NSIT 98 95 97 290 B $ 45.500 296,693=20 NSOL 84 99 92 275 A $ 133.000 754,913=20 NTAP 99 98 98 295 A $ 44.880 920,380=20 ODP 90 93 85 268 B $ 36.630 1,343,693=20 OMC 91 85 76 252 A $ 56.250 419,460=20 ORBKF 90 91 96 277 A $ 45.380 131,303=20 ORCL 97 95 95 287 A $ 41.190 8,125,450=20 OSI 72 85 76 233 B $ 26.500 318,897=20 OSSI 90 90 69 249 A $ 39.810 426,063=20 OSTE 70 97 93 260 A $ 43.250 122,943=20 PBI 84 87 60 231 A $ 64.000 448,837=20 PDCO 90 87 71 248 B $ 42.130 84,123=20 PE 78 94 66 238 B $ 41.690 628,263=20 PFE 87 86 80 253 A $ 119.380 2,653,764=20 PLCE 94 99 82 275 A $ 23.310 196,810=20 PMS 90 89 88 267 B $ 51.750 169,073=20 POS 90 87 76 253 A $ 60.310 76,263=20 POWI 72 98 77 247 B $ 25.560 342,843=20 PPDI 87 87 64 238 B $ 27.560 242,723=20 PRGS 78 95 95 268 B $ 33.500 151,737=20 PRGX 90 93 86 269 A $ 35.000 120,030=20 PSDI 95 95 95 285 A $ 28.810 80,983=20 PSEM 87 96 99 282 B $ 10.130 161,040=20 PVN 96 96 69 261 A $ 71.630 901,712=20 RDHS 93 88 69 250 A $ 23.500 111,513=20 RESM 97 98 93 288 A $ 45.000 255,547=20 RGIS 85 86 86 257 B $ 35.630 91,867=20 RMBS 84 97 99 280 A $ 100.750 730,220=20 RX 90 87 92 269 A $ 71.560 514,997=20 SAI 95 95 69 259 A $ 83.940 826,923=20 SALT 99 97 76 272 A $ 22.380 91,427=20 SANM 97 96 99 292 A $ 59.000 1,031,487=20 SAPE 99 95 95 289 A $ 61.130 319,323=20 SBUX 97 85 69 251 B $ 52.380 1,156,590=20 SCH 91 98 83 272 A $ 60.380 1,719,918=20 SDG 86 93 83 262 A $ 123.000 227,393=20 SEBL 99 86 95 280 A $ 32.750 1,206,900=20 SERO 92 89 64 245 A $ 27.000 107,167=20 SGP 89 88 80 257 A $ 54.940 3,065,287=20 SIPX 72 94 99 265 A $ 37.440 221,893=20 SLR 93 97 97 287 A $ 84.500 787,187=20 SNPS 93 93 95 281 A $ 51.940 621,933=20 SONC 88 88 69 245 A $ 24.440 89,177=20 SORC 74 98 86 258 A $ 11.880 113,600=20 SPLS 98 97 85 280 B $ 45.190 2,735,533=20 SUIT 94 89 82 265 B $ 29.500 176,847=20 SUNW 94 97 95 286 A $ 83.310 7,719,253=20 SWY 95 94 75 264 A $ 59.190 2,315,827=20 SYK 88 87 83 258 A $ 49.250 154,473=20 SYKE 99 92 86 277 B $ 26.500 234,217=20 T 85 86 84 255 B $ 74.560 5,022,930=20 TAGS 97 99 80 276 A $ 38.000 87,680=20 TGO 90 94 84 268 B $ 34.440 368,397=20 THQI 99 96 85 280 A $ 28.000 312,137=20 TJX 92 92 82 266 B $ 27.690 1,326,150=20 TLAB 98 88 90 276 A $ 69.940 3,049,540=20 TSG 70 89 63 222 A $ 43.000 93,227=20 USM 81 87 81 249 B $ 37.880 106,303=20 UVSGA 93 94 70 257 A $ 25.250 133,247=20 VISX 78 98 88 264 A $ 80.750 344,420=20 VOD 96 95 81 272 A $ 164.310 117,083=20 VRTS 99 89 95 283 A $ 57.500 638,630=20 VTSS 97 97 99 293 A $ 45.060 1,196,300=20 WAG 85 94 89 268 B $ 60.190 888,000=20 WAT 97 95 64 256 A $ 83.630 139,260=20 WCOM 81 96 84 261 B $ 70.130 9,760,241=20 WHIT 97 86 92 275 A $ 25.310 397,923=20 WMT 87 94 71 252 B $ 81.130 2,821,344=20 WPI 93 86 73 252 A $ 52.310 308,683=20 WSM 91 95 91 277 A $ 35.250 178,877=20 WTSLA 89 88 82 259 A $ 30.190 132,003=20 XLSW 98 94 90 282 A $ 32.560 171,327=20 XOMD 99 90 83 272 B $ 26.440 104,272=20 XRX 87 87 60 234 B $ 110.500 922,530=20 YHOO 84 99 99 282 B $ 247.130 7,393,071=20 ZQK 95 96 80 271 B $ 29.750 95,010=20 - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Charles Cangialosi" Subject: [CANSLIM] Options Date: 27 Dec 1998 11:29:07 -0500 I would like to thank everyone once again who responded to my questions on options. It was an entire options course in a day. Thanks Charlie - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: dbphoenix Subject: [CANSLIM] Re: non-canslim postings Date: 27 Dec 1998 13:59:17 -0800 (PST) Seems to me that we're going to have to figure out how to encourage newcomers and lurkers to post without crabbing at them about all the non-cs posts. I, for one, am thrilled to see so many people posting who have never (or rarely) posted before, as opposed to the same-old same-old from the elders. If some of these posts are irritants to some of the greybeards, perhaps the GBs could be specific as to why the posts are not canslim. For example, I see nothing anti-cs about using scanning software. Anyone who believes that WON scans his database with his finger is in need of a reality check. OTOH, why is the use of some moving averages OK and the use of others not OK? If the use of MAs is OK, then why not the use of MACD, since it is nothing more than a means of restating MAs? At one point, even some of the greybeards were using it. Those who fail with cs generally do so because they're trying to use it as a system instead of trying to figure out why it works. Only when one understands why it works can he modify it to suit changing market conditions. If one believes it should never be modified, then he will be out of the market during those periods when the "system" is inappropriate. In which case he'll have no motivation to read all this email anyway. --Db == "Lessons are repeated until they are learned." http://home.talkcity.com/MoneySt/dbphoenix/ _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Walter Stock Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Applying classic Elder to current Canslim "M" Date: 27 Dec 1998 21:43:31 -0500 Hi Ronald, Many thanks for speeding things up and finding the material. I had been grinding through the earlier archive months, but you have indeed found the meat of the series, particularly v02-n317 and v02-320. Walter Ronald J. Russell, Jr. wrote: > For those (like myself) who have been searching for the series Walter referred to, there are some posts in v02.n291 through v02.n294. The real meat of the series seems to be a little later in v02.n317 through v02.n320. > Ron > > - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Re: non-canslim postings Date: 27 Dec 1998 22:14:00 -0500 It's funny, we didn't used to have so much trouble getting the newbies (either to this group or to CANSLIM) to post, and still managed to remain a CANSLIM board. Somehow, someway, lately they seem to be intimidated about posting here. For those few that have posted anyway, my congrats and appreciation. You're on target, db, I do have a beard, and it's quite grey. Doesn't make me any wiser or "elder" however, than any other member here, yourself included. It's maintenance requires extra work, but I continue to wear it in respect to my wife. Is "scanning software discussions" off topic? To a degree, no, if the goal is to find better CS candidates. Is discussing totally different investment strategies than CANSLIM off topic for a board dedicated to CANSLIM? In my opinion, absolutely yes. Is challenging the merits of CANSLIM by someone disenchanted with CANSLIM off topic, of course not. But urging members to try some other method is not CANSLIM either. Far better to discuss why CANSLIM didn't work for that member, and maybe we can all learn something about applying the rules. Do I think WON scans with his finger? Of course not. In fact I understand he has three different computers at his home used solely for investment making activities. On the other hand, I pay for DGO, thus don't have the need for extensive ancillary software, so can "get by" scanning Wm O'Neil's data with one digit. But I must admit I miss the days of this group when a member, often a "newbie" to the group, could post on a stock that they thought was a good CANSLIM candidate and get viable feedback from some of the knowledgable and experienced members of the group. I don't think my posted response was out of line, and am not apologizing for it. Jeff Salisbury, as list owner, has created this board for discussing CANSLIM matters. I for one would like to see that remain as the primary topic. Tom W -----Original Message----- Seems to me that we're going to have to figure out how to encourage newcomers and lurkers to post without crabbing at them about all the non-cs posts. I, for one, am thrilled to see so many people posting who have never (or rarely) posted before, as opposed to the same-old same-old from the elders. If some of these posts are irritants to some of the greybeards, perhaps the GBs could be specific as to why the posts are not canslim. For example, I see nothing anti-cs about using scanning software. Anyone who believes that WON scans his database with his finger is in need of a reality check. OTOH, why is the use of some moving averages OK and the use of others not OK? If the use of MAs is OK, then why not the use of MACD, since it is nothing more than a means of restating MAs? At one point, even some of the greybeards were using it. Those who fail with cs generally do so because they're trying to use it as a system instead of trying to figure out why it works. Only when one understands why it works can he modify it to suit changing market conditions. If one believes it should never be modified, then he will be out of the market during those periods when the "system" is inappropriate. In which case he'll have no motivation to read all this email anyway. --Db == "Lessons are repeated until they are learned." http://home.talkcity.com/MoneySt/dbphoenix/ _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Joe J." Subject: [CANSLIM] Response to Alternative to CS-Example of a trade Date: 27 Dec 1998 22:23:27 -0700 Walter responded to my recent post on Williams' Chaos Theory asking if I could post an example of an actual trade and how the method worked. Tom later posted his remarks that he wasn't interested. Well, I've been around this list long enough to remember the Tom and Jeff war and remember Tom leaving the list on two different occasions, yada yada. I don't wish to offend anyone with this post so just skip if you have no interest. But, let me say this - I've been in the market off and on since 1988. I've traded stocks, options, and futures. I've tried a lot of different things during that time (including CS). Some worked better than others and some didn't work at all. There are methods that work in the market besides CS, let me assure you of that! Ultimately, everyone needs to find one that works for them and that they are comfortable with. Bill Williams' method works for me. I think enough of this group to share that with you. Here is an actual recent trade I entered into: After the market close on 12/18 (a Friday), I downloaded my daily quote information from QuotePlus 2 and updated my MetaStock (MS) directories (I do this every night and run the MS scan every night). I basically keep two directories in MS, one is higher average volume stocks with some decent volatility and an internet directory which has every stock that I could find which has an internet related business (these databases are of my own choice not that of Bill Williams). I then run MS's Explorer with a custom scan I wrote to look for "flat" moving averages. Basically, you are looking for charts which have three moving averages coming together in a flat pattern. The MA's (all exponential) are a 13 day moved forward 8 days, an 8 day moved forward 5 days, and a 5 day moved forward 3 days. What I mean by moved forward is for example a 5 day moving average's value 3 days ago. When these three averages are "flat" and wound together, you are in a "range". You then need to look for fractal breakouts either to the upside or downside. Fractals are a high (for upside breakouts) or a low (for downside breakouts) which are a intraday high with two lower highs on the prior two days and two lower highs on the following two days and vice versa for the fractal low. In addition, two MACD's are used to basically find values close to zero relative to the stock's MACD's history (basically a 5/34/5 is used but of the midpoint not the close). Again, confirming the idea of a "base" in the stock. Now, pull up a chart of AMTD. On 12/18, the stock was in a "flat" trading period. The last fractal high was on 12/10/98 when the high was 21 3/8 and the last fractal low was on 12/14 at 19 1/8. For Monday 12/21, I placed an order to buy 300 shares of AMTD on a buy stop limit for 21 7/16 (a tick above 21 3/8). It was hit that day as the high was 21 3/4. I set my stop to a tick below the fractal low at 19 1/16. The next day the stock gaps open on "news" and trades over 37. I took 150 shares down at 29 plus and another 75 shares down around 33 plus that day (this to is not per Williams just my "gut" feeling that when these internet stocks move up 50% in one day - ah, take some profits since they can come crashing down just as fast). Normally, unless a stock jumps 25% or more in one day, I just move my trailing stops up with the price action (all explained in Williams' book). Internets have there "own" set of rules! Actually, I had a couple of internets shoot up on me (CYCH and WAVO) - both doubling in a couple of days only to come crashing down just as quick over the next couple of days leaving me with less profit than I would have liked to risk giving back that prompted me to take at least something off the table with the internets. I have used this method to trade non-internets quite well also. Recent examples include SBUX, AES, BBY, ERICY just to name a few. Obviously, I can't post the whole system so I don't do Bill Williams' book, "New Trading Dimensions" justice here. But, if you like the concept of buying or shorting off a base, ignoring the fundamentals, and don't mind buying or shorting breakouts, you might find this system works for you. What I like about it is that you can really go with what's hot. Poor CS get largely zapped from the internet frenzy because of the harsh rules. Ask yourself this, do you really want to follow a system that has left you out of the internet frenzy? If so, fine no problem. I agree that it is not for everyone. But, if not here is something that you might want to explore. Good Trading, Joe J. - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Charles Cangialosi" Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Re: non-canslim postings Date: 28 Dec 1998 05:14:42 -0500 CANSLIM was my original interest and still is. The best part of this list centers on various stocks achieving different levels of canslimablility. OTOH, there has been a lot of other informative stuff too. Books to read, articles on the internet, various other internet pages to view, software choices and alternate investing strategies that I would not want to miss. All of these subjects pertain to investing in general. CANSLIM does not exist in a vacuum. Though on this list CANSLIM should be the underlying current, as it was the original intent. I appreciate this list it has been a real help. The "graybeards" have been really good to continue to unselfishly answer questions that must get boring after wave upon wave of newbies come and go. I tried going off list for stuff that IMO was not list material. It worked great. Only one persons opinion. Charlie - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "james sullivan" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Re: non-canslim postings Date: 28 Dec 1998 07:21:47 -0500 >Somehow, someway, lately they seem to be >intimidated about posting here. Being fairly new to this group, I'd like to respond.... "intimidation" is not the term I would use, "trying to fit in" is....I greatly enjoy this group....but, I find the discussions to be more technical than fundamental (please don't post any percentage stats to correct me.. ;^) )....fundamental is what I "need"; any more, I can get all/most technical indicators on the I-net.... the tough parts is the market and protecting a position by selling or options (especially that first base) >Is "scanning software discussions" off topic? ....for CANSLIM scanning, I think not.... >Far >better to discuss why CANSLIM didn't work for that >member, and maybe >we can all learn something about applying the rules. ....an excellent thought....I'm sure there is something to be learned >Do I think WON scans with his finger? Of course not. ....wouldn't matter to me if he did; it's the winning that matters....I believe, Einstein considered his pencil and pad his office.... >But I must admit I miss the days of this group when a >member, often a "newbie" to the group, could post on >a stock that they thought was a good CANSLIM >candidate and get viable feedback from some of the >knowledgable and experienced members of the group. Why do you think it has changed? > Jeff >Salisbury, as list owner, has created this board for >discussing CANSLIM matters. I for one would like >to see that remain as the primary topic. absolutely >Seems to me that we're going to have to figure out how >to encourage newcomers and lurkers to post without >crabbing at them about all the non-cs posts I filter my e-mail....any message with CANSLIM in the Subject goes to a CANSLIM folder (Win95)...we could take that one step further by utilizing some key words.... such as "scanning"....just a thought.... >If one believes it should never be modified, then >he will be out of the market during those periods when >the "system" is inappropriate. hmmm?!? - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: rolatzi Subject: [CANSLIM] State of the Market Date: 28 Dec 1998 05:20:05 -0800 (PST) CANSLIMers, Posted below is my scan for the previous week of the market indicies. I will continue to post the state of the market list weekly with the previous months performance for DJ30, NY, NAS and DJ20 only if people think it is of value. Ciao, rolatzi !DJ30,12/01/1998,9214.66,8934.52,9133.54,104.50,130.53 !DJ30,12/02/1998,9154.40,8922.94,9064.54, 92.35,130.30 !DJ30,12/03/1998,9112.69,8839.78,8879.68, 78.46,126.68 !DJ30,12/04/1998,9078.70,8873.76,9016.14, 69.61,125.36 !DJ30,12/07/1998,9146.93,8946.11,9070.47, 53.31,124.76 !DJ30,12/08/1998,9153.63,8903.37,9027.98, 79.24,123.19,Reversal !DJ30,12/09/1998,9138.18,8881.23,9009.19, 80.31,121.14,Compress !DJ30,12/10/1998,9034.42,8795.24,8841.58, 76.63,116.16 !DJ30,12/11/1998,8916.24,8680.41,8821.76, 71.70,110.99 !DJ30,12/14/1998,8868.10,8610.63,8695.60, 71.52,103.89 !DJ30,12/15/1998,8878.40,8614.75,8823.30, 77.34, 99.28 !DJ30,12/16/1998,8922.94,8675.52,8790.60, 70.31, 94.28 !DJ30,12/17/1998,8959.76,8725.21,8875.82, 71.75, 90.91 !DJ30,12/18/1998,9012.28,8789.31,8903.63, 95.15, 88.06 !DJ30,12/21/1998,9150.54,8874.28,8988.85, 77.84, 86.65 !DJ30,12/22/1998,9122.99,8909.29,9044.46, 58.51, 86.07 !DJ30,12/23/1998,9211.04,9043.18,9202.03, 65.37, 87.94 !DJ30,12/24/1998,9289.57,9146.42,9217.99, 24.50, 89.68 !NYA ,12/01/1998,573.74,564.56,573.33, 7.88, 7.10 !NYA ,12/02/1998,573.33,566.29,571.79, 7.30, 7.20 !NYA ,12/03/1998,573.84,563.14,563.45, 8.03, 7.14,Reversal !NYA ,12/04/1998,573.64,563.45,573.49, 7.12, 7.23 !NYA ,12/07/1998,577.72,573.19,577.33, 6.60, 7.37 !NYA ,12/08/1998,579.36,571.38,574.92, 7.28, 7.43,Reversal !NYA ,12/09/1998,575.94,572.30,574.79, 7.00, 7.47 !NYA ,12/10/1998,574.79,565.35,566.08, 7.53, 7.34,Compress !NYA ,12/11/1998,566.08,559.72,564.82, 6.88, 7.19 !NYA ,12/14/1998,564.82,552.83,554.53, 7.02, 6.85,Compress !NYA ,12/15/1998,562.74,554.53,562.74, 7.81, 6.67,Up 1% wVol !NYA ,12/16/1998,564.31,559.95,562.89, 7.36, 6.49 !NYA ,12/17/1998,570.16,562.84,570.15, 7.44, 6.44,Up 1% wVol !NYA ,12/18/1998,572.54,568.77,572.07, 8.42, 6.40 !NYA ,12/21/1998,581.01,571.79,577.70, 7.45, 6.44 !NYA ,12/22/1998,580.82,574.13,578.75, 7.45, 6.49 !NYA ,12/23/1998,589.58,578.66,588.95, 6.88, 6.68 !NYA ,12/24/1998,589.94,587.82,589.07, 2.47, 6.84 !COMP,12/01/1998,2003.80,1924.10,2003.70, 1.03, 33.77 !COMP,12/02/1998,2005.70,1973.20,1995.20, 0.99, 35.23 !COMP,12/03/1998,2012.70,1954.30,1954.30, 1.05, 35.79,Reversal !COMP,12/04/1998,2003.10,1975.00,2003.10, 0.89, 37.03 !COMP,12/07/1998,2040.80,2007.30,2040.60, 0.81, 38.70 !COMP,12/08/1998,2060.98,2018.16,2034.75, 0.92, 40.02,Reversal !COMP,12/09/1998,2052.70,2031.80,2050.40, 0.86, 41.38 !COMP,12/10/1998,2058.38,2015.73,2015.96, 0.87, 41.94,Reversal !COMP,12/11/1998,2035.00,2004.90,2029.30, 0.79, 42.57 !COMP,12/14/1998,2029.30,1962.00,1966.90, 0.75, 41.98 !COMP,12/15/1998,2012.60,1981.20,2012.60, 0.77, 42.10,Up 1% wVol !COMP,12/16/1998,2027.10,1996.80,2009.30, 0.85, 42.04,Reversal !COMP,12/17/1998,2043.80,2014.70,2043.80, 0.80, 42.46 !COMP,12/18/1998,2086.10,2055.80,2086.10, 0.91, 43.43,Up 1% wVol !COMP,12/21/1998,2143.80,2104.10,2138.00, 0.96, 45.07,Up 1% wVol !COMP,12/22/1998,2144.60,2105.50,2120.90, 0.91, 46.15 !COMP,12/23/1998,2172.50,2134.20,2172.50, 0.97, 47.87,Up 1% wVol !COMP,12/24/1998,2171.30,2162.67,2163.03, 0.45, 49.15 !DJ20,12/01/1998,3089.36,2977.77,3047.84, 14.07, 42.32 !DJ20,12/02/1998,3119.46,3022.43,3101.95, 13.25, 45.32 !DJ20,12/03/1998,3123.87,3022.15,3039.15, 11.73, 46.96 !DJ20,12/04/1998,3116.61,3028.64,3052.25, 9.19, 48.62 !DJ20,12/07/1998,3189.79,3051.11,3115.83,15.82, 51.13,Up 1% wVol !DJ20,12/08/1998,3187.45,3066.52,3105.45, 14.62, 53.18 !DJ20,12/09/1998,3131.14,3024.87,3063.80, 11.45, 54.27 !DJ20,12/10/1998,3091.18,2993.09,3012.55, 8.75, 54.34 !DJ20,12/11/1998,3010.99,2886.43,2929.51, 15.30, 52.92,Compress !DJ20,12/14/1998,2949.15,2835.31,2858.66, 10.93, 50.37 !DJ20,12/15/1998,2919.65,2815.33,2883.32, 11.94, 48.38 !DJ20,12/16/1998,2933.40,2840.24,2869.82, 11.77, 46.28 !DJ20,12/17/1998,3003.47,2862.30,2970.64,15.34, 46.00,Up 1% wVol !DJ20,12/18/1998,3045.80,2934.96,3009.04, 14.69, 46.31 !DJ20,12/21/1998,3088.06,2987.90,3025.52, 11.66, 46.82 !DJ20,12/22/1998,3084.69,2950.79,3036.16, 12.18, 47.38 _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: mckeener@ix.netcom.com Subject: [CANSLIM] alternative to canslim Date: 28 Dec 1998 07:43:28 -0600 (CST) Walter and Tom and all members, Topics will come up that have nothing or little to do with CANSLIM. As Tom suggested, e-mailing individual members would be appropriate in these instances. Even though I am interested in NON- CANSLIM topics, I like this message board because it is CANSLIM. Still a novice in the investment world, I believe I will be more successful as a trader if I focus on one method. There are numerous sites that provide alternatives for those who want additional options. The best to everyone on the board in '99. Of course, profitable trades, more learning, and continued stimulating discussions. Happy New Year, Mary Walter, You are correct that some of us are frustrated by all this non-CANSLIM posting on a CANSLIM dedicated board. I find myself deleting well over half the posts I receive from the mail list manager without ever reading them, as I am not interested in the virtues of various automated sorting software packages, or how to make them emulate Wm O'Neil's often proprietary formulas. Likewise, I'm not interested in trying other investment strategies other than CANSLIM, been there, done that, lost my money and gravitated to CANSLIM. That's why I am a member here. It's especially frustrating when much of this has been discussed time and time again, and can be found in the CANSLIM archives if someone wants to take the time to go back and search for it. Certainly any member has a right to post on non-CANSLIM topics, but I for one would greatly appreciate it if the discussion could be continued off this board. In the past when I have posted something off topic, I have requested members to respond privately to me. Some do, some simply hit Reply To Sender, in which case their response goes back to the Mail List Manager instead of the author, and we all end up getting it. When this happens, it's not much trouble to delete the address in the "TO" line then cut and paste in the original sender's address from his or her email, in most cases already included in the response. Another alternative would be to post a site available where such discussion is already taking place. Then those that have an interest can go there. But with a number of indexes hitting new highs, and VIX having FINALLY broken 20 to the downside, I'd prefer to spend my Christmas weekend reading and discussing matters related to CANSLIM, such as are we seeing the result of a new double bottom in the NYSE? If so, why is the RS still in a nearly 3 month long downtrend compared to the S&P500? Is this only because the S&P500 has large cap stocks, presumably of better quality, compared to the entire NYSE? (HINT: look at the Russell 2000, composed of just small cap stocks, for a possible answer). And finally, what does this tell us, if anything, about the all important "M"??? Thanks to all the members who continue to post on CANSLIM topics or post their CS stocks. I am still over 50% cash, and plan to spend much of my holiday weekend searching for some new investment "gifts" for myself. I hope all members have a happy and joyous holiday weekend no matter how you spend it. Tom W - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: rolatzi Date: 28 Dec 1998 04:58:42 -0800 (PST) My scan of the state of the market for last week including data from Dec. 1 onward. I will continue to post this only if people think it is useful and correct. Ciao, rolatzi !DJ30,12/01/1998,9214.66,8934.52,9133.54,104.50,130.53 !DJ30,12/02/1998,9154.40,8922.94,9064.54, 92.35,130.30 !DJ30,12/03/1998,9112.69,8839.78,8879.68, 78.46,126.68 !DJ30,12/04/1998,9078.70,8873.76,9016.14, 69.61,125.36 !DJ30,12/07/1998,9146.93,8946.11,9070.47, 53.31,124.76 !DJ30,12/08/1998,9153.63,8903.37,9027.98, 79.24,123.19,Reversal !DJ30,12/09/1998,9138.18,8881.23,9009.19, 80.31,121.14,Compress !DJ30,12/10/1998,9034.42,8795.24,8841.58, 76.63,116.16 !DJ30,12/11/1998,8916.24,8680.41,8821.76, 71.70,110.99 !DJ30,12/14/1998,8868.10,8610.63,8695.60, 71.52,103.89 !DJ30,12/15/1998,8878.40,8614.75,8823.30, 77.34, 99.28 !DJ30,12/16/1998,8922.94,8675.52,8790.60, 70.31, 94.28 !DJ30,12/17/1998,8959.76,8725.21,8875.82, 71.75, 90.91 !DJ30,12/18/1998,9012.28,8789.31,8903.63, 95.15, 88.06 !DJ30,12/21/1998,9150.54,8874.28,8988.85, 77.84, 86.65 !DJ30,12/22/1998,9122.99,8909.29,9044.46, 58.51, 86.07 !DJ30,12/23/1998,9211.04,9043.18,9202.03, 65.37, 87.94 !DJ30,12/24/1998,9289.57,9146.42,9217.99, 24.50, 89.68 !NYA ,12/01/1998,573.74,564.56,573.33, 7.88, 7.10 !NYA ,12/02/1998,573.33,566.29,571.79, 7.30, 7.20 !NYA ,12/03/1998,573.84,563.14,563.45, 8.03, 7.14,Reversal !NYA ,12/04/1998,573.64,563.45,573.49, 7.12, 7.23 !NYA ,12/07/1998,577.72,573.19,577.33, 6.60, 7.37 !NYA ,12/08/1998,579.36,571.38,574.92, 7.28, 7.43,Reversal !NYA ,12/09/1998,575.94,572.30,574.79, 7.00, 7.47 !NYA ,12/10/1998,574.79,565.35,566.08, 7.53, 7.34,Compress !NYA ,12/11/1998,566.08,559.72,564.82, 6.88, 7.19 !NYA ,12/14/1998,564.82,552.83,554.53, 7.02, 6.85,Compress !NYA ,12/15/1998,562.74,554.53,562.74, 7.81, 6.67,Up 1% wVol !NYA ,12/16/1998,564.31,559.95,562.89, 7.36, 6.49 !NYA ,12/17/1998,570.16,562.84,570.15, 7.44, 6.44,Up 1% wVol !NYA ,12/18/1998,572.54,568.77,572.07, 8.42, 6.40 !NYA ,12/21/1998,581.01,571.79,577.70, 7.45, 6.44 !NYA ,12/22/1998,580.82,574.13,578.75, 7.45, 6.49 !NYA ,12/23/1998,589.58,578.66,588.95, 6.88, 6.68 !NYA ,12/24/1998,589.94,587.82,589.07, 2.47, 6.84 !COMP,12/01/1998,2003.80,1924.10,2003.70, 1.03, 33.77 !COMP,12/02/1998,2005.70,1973.20,1995.20, 0.99, 35.23 !COMP,12/03/1998,2012.70,1954.30,1954.30, 1.05, 35.79,Reversal !COMP,12/04/1998,2003.10,1975.00,2003.10, 0.89, 37.03 !COMP,12/07/1998,2040.80,2007.30,2040.60, 0.81, 38.70 !COMP,12/08/1998,2060.98,2018.16,2034.75, 0.92, 40.02,Reversal !COMP,12/09/1998,2052.70,2031.80,2050.40, 0.86, 41.38 !COMP,12/10/1998,2058.38,2015.73,2015.96, 0.87, 41.94,Reversal !COMP,12/11/1998,2035.00,2004.90,2029.30, 0.79, 42.57 !COMP,12/14/1998,2029.30,1962.00,1966.90, 0.75, 41.98 !COMP,12/15/1998,2012.60,1981.20,2012.60, 0.77, 42.10,Up 1% wVol !COMP,12/16/1998,2027.10,1996.80,2009.30, 0.85, 42.04,Reversal !COMP,12/17/1998,2043.80,2014.70,2043.80, 0.80, 42.46 !COMP,12/18/1998,2086.10,2055.80,2086.10, 0.91, 43.43,Up 1% wVol !COMP,12/21/1998,2143.80,2104.10,2138.00, 0.96, 45.07,Up 1% wVol !COMP,12/22/1998,2144.60,2105.50,2120.90, 0.91, 46.15 !COMP,12/23/1998,2172.50,2134.20,2172.50, 0.97, 47.87,Up 1% wVol !COMP,12/24/1998,2171.30,2162.67,2163.03, 0.45, 49.15 !DJ20,12/01/1998,3089.36,2977.77,3047.84, 14.07, 42.32 !DJ20,12/02/1998,3119.46,3022.43,3101.95, 13.25, 45.32 !DJ20,12/03/1998,3123.87,3022.15,3039.15, 11.73, 46.96 !DJ20,12/04/1998,3116.61,3028.64,3052.25, 9.19, 48.62 !DJ20,12/07/1998,3189.79,3051.11,3115.83,15.82, 51.13,Up 1% wVol !DJ20,12/08/1998,3187.45,3066.52,3105.45, 14.62, 53.18 !DJ20,12/09/1998,3131.14,3024.87,3063.80, 11.45, 54.27 !DJ20,12/10/1998,3091.18,2993.09,3012.55, 8.75, 54.34 !DJ20,12/11/1998,3010.99,2886.43,2929.51, 15.30, 52.92,Compress !DJ20,12/14/1998,2949.15,2835.31,2858.66, 10.93, 50.37 !DJ20,12/15/1998,2919.65,2815.33,2883.32, 11.94, 48.38 !DJ20,12/16/1998,2933.40,2840.24,2869.82, 11.77, 46.28 !DJ20,12/17/1998,3003.47,2862.30,2970.64,15.34, 46.00,Up 1% wVol !DJ20,12/18/1998,3045.80,2934.96,3009.04, 14.69, 46.31 !DJ20,12/21/1998,3088.06,2987.90,3025.52, 11.66, 46.82 !DJ20,12/22/1998,3084.69,2950.79,3036.16, 12.18, 47.38 _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Thomas A. Moulton" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Re: non-canslim postings Date: 28 Dec 1998 09:38:27 -0500 The problem I see is that while CANSLI are pretty easy to evaluate it is much harder to evaluate M and the market has changed such that the chart patterns may have changed with technology providing better tools to evaluate stocks faster... As well as people being able to evaluate/decide/trade faster than say 10 years ago. CANSLIm still help people find the best stocks to trade and sometimes it helps tell you when to trade. I use canslim to find what to trade and then use Triple Screen to decide when to trade. tom m - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: mckeener@ix.netcom.com Subject: [CANSLIM] non-canslim postings Date: 28 Dec 1998 10:34:14 -0600 (CST) Db, I agree. It is good to hear from lurkers and newcomers. Newness brings much needed fresh air. However, there's something to say for experienc too. I'm for both. Not one grey hair on my non-existent beard. Mary - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "The Jacksons" Subject: [CANSLIM] MELI Date: 28 Dec 1998 12:04:28 -0500 Hello All, Any thoughts on MELI, breakout to a new high on double adv (as of 12 pm. mon) I'd be particularly interested in hearing comments about the chart's structure. thanks, Mark - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "The Jacksons" Subject: [CANSLIM] MELI Date: 28 Dec 1998 12:04:28 -0500 Hello All, Any thoughts on MELI, breakout to a new high on double adv (as of 12 pm. mon) I'd be particularly interested in hearing comments about the chart's structure. thanks, Mark - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: xchen@raptor.mti.sgi.com (Xiang Chen) Subject: [CANSLIM] NTAP Date: 28 Dec 1998 10:11:11 -0800 (PST) Hi, I am a kind of newbie in this list. I bought a small position of NTAP at 41.375. It seems going side way now. I would like to hear any comments on this one. Thanks a lot. -- Xiang Feng Chen xchen@mti.sgi.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Charles Cangialosi" Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] MELI Date: 28 Dec 1998 15:13:27 -0500 Mark, I am inexperience but I would like to venture an opinion on the chart. I think it looks like a good break out from a valid CWH. I started to buy this when I looked at the IBD readings 90's and A's. I think I missed it (again) it is up over 20. I think the buy point was around 16-18. Maybe I should jump at it. Two things stop me. 1. I am reading "Trading for a Living" by Elder. He does not recommend any emotional responses. That for me is a toughie. 2. I keep thinking the market is extended. I dont see any turn around's but again I have no experience. So I guess I will either miss it or wait for a pull back. Hope you caught it. Charlie > -----Original Message----- > From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com > [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of The Jacksons > Sent: Monday, December 28, 1998 12:04 PM > To: canslim@lists.xmission.com; canslim@xmission.com > Subject: [CANSLIM] MELI > > > > Hello All, > Any thoughts on MELI, breakout to a new high on double adv (as of 12 pm. > mon) I'd be particularly interested in hearing comments about the chart's > structure. thanks, Mark > > > - > > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Tim Fisher Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] MELI Date: 28 Dec 1998 13:54:00 -0800 Can't comment on the fundies since I don't have good data on this one, but the chart looks more like a double bottom than a C&H - threre's no handle. Also the first breakout was back at 15 - you could have bot at 17-1/2 or so last Tues and caught it. This is a second stage move off very little support so carries higher risk than the first breakout. Also flirting with it's 52 week high today but doesn't seem to be encountering much resistance there - I take that as a good sign. When you think the mkt is extended that's when it will go higher and leave you behind. Look for the sell signals and act accordingly. If you are following WON's M then you are still pretty heavily invested right now (80-100% or so). I gave up on being queasy and got back to 100% invested last Monday. Might as well book some paper profits from this Santa Claus rally before we lose some of it when the pros come back to work next Monday. I for one am gonna make sure my stops are where I want them by this Sunday. On another front at least VTSS is flirting with the lower end of its breakout range today - anyone else notice weakness in other recent breakouts? Another recent b/o, INSS is powering up on good volume for this time of year, so I guess I shouldn't be alarmed about VTSS quite yet. On 12:13 PM 12/28/98 , Charles Cangialosi Said: >Mark, >I am inexperience but I would like to venture an opinion on the chart. I >think it looks like a good break out from a valid CWH. I started to buy this >when I looked at the IBD readings 90's and A's. I think I missed it (again) >it is up over 20. I think the buy point was around 16-18. Maybe I should >jump at it. Two things stop me. 1. I am reading "Trading for a Living" by >Elder. He does not recommend any emotional responses. That for me is a >toughie. 2. I keep thinking the market is extended. I dont see any turn >around's but again I have no experience. So I guess I will either miss it or >wait for a pull back. Hope you caught it. >Charlie > > >> -----Original Message----- >> From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com >> [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of The Jacksons >> Sent: Monday, December 28, 1998 12:04 PM >> To: canslim@lists.xmission.com; canslim@xmission.com >> Subject: [CANSLIM] MELI >> >> >> >> Hello All, >> Any thoughts on MELI, breakout to a new high on double adv (as of 12 pm. >> mon) I'd be particularly interested in hearing comments about the chart's >> structure. thanks, Mark >> >> >> - >> >> > > >- > Tim Fisher Ore-Rock-On and Pacific Fishery Biologists WWW Sites Tim@OreRockOn.com WWW: http://OreRockOn.com See naked fish and rocks! - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Charles Cangialosi" Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] MELI Date: 28 Dec 1998 18:51:26 -0500 Tim, On MELI. I see the double bottom in the July to Nov timeframe. About every chart I have seen thus far has one of those. My question is on the handle. Nov 30 to Dec 14 the Price line slopes down and the volume drys up. Then the stock pops up. I can see where 15 would have been perfect. I would have been stopped out though. I would set an 8% stop, I surly would have done that. I would have gotten wacked on Dec 16th. I would have had better luck in the $17 area. Now at $20 I just dont have enough confidence in my ability to read these things to follow it. Ian says something about a greasy pole. WON says dont chase over 5% up. This is no doubt a good rule. However I have been unable to catch anything at that point. It moves to fast and I cant watch it all day. What do you think of limit orders. EG: if you are following something set the order at the b/o price. I have been reluctant to do that. Now it seems the only way to go. I am sure you are right about your observations but I am not clear on the questions I asked. Thanks Charlie > -----Original Message----- > From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com > [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Tim Fisher > Sent: Monday, December 28, 1998 4:54 PM > To: canslim@lists.xmission.com > Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] MELI > > > Can't comment on the fundies since I don't have good data on this > one, but the > chart looks more like a double bottom than a C&H - threre's no > handle. Also the > first breakout was back at 15 - you could have bot at 17-1/2 or > so last Tues > and caught it. This is a second stage move off very little > support so carries > higher risk than the first breakout. Also flirting with it's 52 > week high today > but doesn't seem to be encountering much resistance there - I > take that as a > good sign. > > When you think the mkt is extended that's when it will go higher > and leave you > behind. Look for the sell signals and act accordingly. If you > are following > WON's M then you are still pretty heavily invested right now > (80-100% or so). I > gave up on being queasy and got back to 100% invested last > Monday. Might as > well book some paper profits from this Santa Claus rally before > we lose some of > it when the pros come back to work next Monday. I for one am > gonna make sure my > stops are where I want them by this Sunday. > > On another front at least VTSS is flirting with the lower end of > its breakout > range today - anyone else notice weakness in other recent > breakouts? Another > recent b/o, INSS is powering up on good volume for this time of year, so I > guess I shouldn't be alarmed about VTSS quite yet. > > On 12:13 PM 12/28/98 , Charles Cangialosi Said: > >Mark, > >I am inexperience but I would like to venture an opinion on the chart. I > >think it looks like a good break out from a valid CWH. I started > to buy this > >when I looked at the IBD readings 90's and A's. I think I missed > it (again) > >it is up over 20. I think the buy point was around 16-18. Maybe I should > >jump at it. Two things stop me. 1. I am reading "Trading for a Living" by > >Elder. He does not recommend any emotional responses. That for me is a > >toughie. 2. I keep thinking the market is extended. I dont see any turn > >around's but again I have no experience. So I guess I will > either miss it or > >wait for a pull back. Hope you caught it. > >Charlie > > > > > >> -----Original Message----- > >> From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com > >> [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of The Jacksons > >> Sent: Monday, December 28, 1998 12:04 PM > >> To: canslim@lists.xmission.com; canslim@xmission.com > >> Subject: [CANSLIM] MELI > >> > >> > >> > >> Hello All, > >> Any thoughts on MELI, breakout to a new high on double adv > (as of 12 pm. > >> mon) I'd be particularly interested in hearing comments about > the chart's > >> structure. thanks, Mark > >> > >> > >> - > >> > >> > > > > > >- > > > > Tim Fisher > Ore-Rock-On and Pacific Fishery Biologists WWW Sites > > Tim@OreRockOn.com > WWW: http://OreRockOn.com > See naked fish and rocks! > > - > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] MELI Date: 28 Dec 1998 19:00:08 -0500 All the CS data looks good, RS 96, EPS 94, GRS 90, A/A, ROE 32%, no debt, etc. Sequential and year to year earnings and sales growth look consistent. Management has a huge stake still (76%) and funds own nearly half (48%) of the float of 3.6 mil shares. This lessens the likelihood of further funds purchasing, and increases the chance of insider selling, tho there's no evidence so far of the latter. But it does increase the risk. Chart wise I would probably call this a double bottome. If you look all the way back to July, you might make a case for a very shallow cup. But considered in light of its shallowness, as well as what the mkt was doing during that time, I would opt for the dbl bottom. Today's volume impressive in a rather slow day. Tom W -----Original Message----- canslim@xmission.com Hello All, Any thoughts on MELI, breakout to a new high on double adv (as of 12 pm. mon) I'd be particularly interested in hearing comments about the chart's structure. thanks, Mark - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] NTAP Date: 28 Dec 1998 19:08:42 -0500 Once again the CS elements are excellent, RS 98, EPS 99, GRS 98, A/D B, Timeliness A. Chartwise too extended for a fresh buy, tho if it can base for a week or so might be appropriate to add to an existing position on a further volume driven move up. Doesn't meet the "traditional" CANSLIM rules on size with 61 mil shares in the float and funds already holding 27% of that. Management only owns 10%. But with WON's slant toward liquidity and big cap stocks over the past several years, don't know that this matters much anymore (at least till the small cap mkt heats up, anyway). Well on track to meet full year earnings estimates, but my bias shows here as I dislike companies with non standard fiscal years (their's ends April). Tom W -----Original Message----- Hi, I am a kind of newbie in this list. I bought a small position of NTAP at 41.375. It seems going side way now. I would like to hear any comments on this one. Thanks a lot. -- Xiang Feng Chen xchen@mti.sgi.com - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Connie Mack Rea Subject: [CANSLIM] Technical stuff: Semiconductors [Connie Mack] Date: 28 Dec 1998 19:40:16 -0500 Sometimes questions posed to me by my faculty investor/trading group might be useful to members. Because there are several new group members in the last three months, questions before answered have to be answered again. Question: What are the stocks in the semiconductor group? Because most of the money I have made and the group has made in the last three months has been drawn from the semis [MU], that group has held and continues to hold particular attention. In fact, I intend to trade the semis almost exclusively, for I think there is much money to be made there. For a list of stocks in the semis, do this. Go to Clearstation: http://clearstation.com Enter a symbol, say MU, in the box to the right. This will bring up a chart of MU with this text: Micron Technology Inc (MU) Electrical Computer - Semiconductor : 4 new highs in group of 82 High lighted will be "in group of 82." Click on this text. You should then get a list, about 80, of stocks in this group. If you are not familiar with Clearstation, become so. It is one of the best investor sites. For an interesting, and perhaps semi-serious site, look at this: http://lookaheadcharts.com I continue to trade MU [almost 70 times in the last three months]. With neither profit nor loss, I traded it today. I am getting a bit wary, for the MF has shown a negative divergence this last month. A negtive divergence is like an accident looking for a place to happen. Connie Mack - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Tim Fisher Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] MELI Date: 28 Dec 1998 17:14:39 -0800 That's one reason to only trade stocks over $20; the volatility on stocks under $20 stops you out more often if you follow WON's rules to the letter. I dunno if double bottoms are supposed to have a handle or not; it's just a riskier chart to buy off of than a C&H IMO. It's good that it based first before breaking out; many of my recent buys haven't based more than a week before taking off. Some just blasted through my buy point and I bot them anyway. Some did that and I waited for a base, and kick myself now for not buying. IMO again 8% stops are too tight and with the VIX still relatively high will stop you out way too often to make any kind of money unless youa are one heck of a picker or just plain lucky. My initial stops are 10-15% below my buy price and are based on the 30d EMA and/or visible support. I also have trouble with the 5% extended rule and almost never consider it. I look at the chart and the b/o action to determine whether I want to chase it or not. I don't have as much of a problem with "chasing" as I used to because like you I can't sit here with my finger on the button on the day they break out. I'm lucky if I catch it 2 days later. Also a certain ex-member of this group had no problems with chasing stocks and made a convincing argument that these are the stocks to buy - you ride them up that rocket slope and dump out when they inevitably start to correct. The trick is knowing how far the rocket is gonna go and I can't help you there. I love all the analysis about INTC these days, it's funny to see the "Intel bears" dissing the current run as unjustifiable - wonder what they'd say about AOL? Is any price truly justifiable? It's worth what someone will pay for it, no more and no less. On 03:51 PM 12/28/98 , Charles Cangialosi Said: >Tim, > On MELI. I see the double bottom in the July to Nov timeframe. About every >chart I have seen thus far has one of those. My question is on the handle. >Nov 30 to Dec 14 the Price line slopes down and the volume drys up. Then the >stock pops up. > I can see where 15 would have been perfect. I would have been stopped out >though. I would set an 8% stop, I surly would have done that. I would have >gotten wacked on Dec 16th. I would have had better luck in the $17 area. Now >at $20 I just dont have enough confidence in my ability to read these things >to follow it. Ian says something about a greasy pole. WON says dont chase >over 5% up. This is no doubt a good rule. However I have been unable to >catch anything at that point. It moves to fast and I cant watch it all day. > What do you think of limit orders. EG: if you are following something set >the order at the b/o price. I have been reluctant to do that. Now it seems >the only way to go. > I am sure you are right about your observations but I am not clear on the >questions I asked. >Thanks >Charlie > Tim Fisher Ore-Rock-On and Pacific Fishery Biologists WWW Sites Tim@OreRockOn.com WWW: http://OreRockOn.com See naked fish and rocks! - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Craig Griffin Subject: [CANSLIM] (Off Topic) PFE Breakout Date: 29 Dec 1998 14:14:57 -0500 Pivot could be read as 117 (in which case it broke out last week) or 120. Volume will probably not be 150% of adv (not unusual with big cap breakouts). Far too large to meet "S" in canSlim. Potentially good as a mattress stuffer though. - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] On "M" Date: 30 Dec 1998 07:33:16 -0500 It's particularly tough to judge the "M" on a day to day basis during this holiday weakened period. However, a few observations. On Nasdaq, volume continues surprisingly high. And the trend line for up volume also is solidly positive. Compare this to NYSE, where the volume is light, the up volume line is essentially flat, and the decrease in volume comes mostly from a decrease in down volume. I read this as a cessation of tax related selling more than anything, which is normal this late in the year. The Russell 2000, while still trailing, is acting like it may break through the last of resistance just below 420. There has been much talk of 1999 being a small cap year, time will tell. Certainly earnings growth is better there, however I would not expect money managers to give up liquidity unless they feel very bullish about long term trends. Volatility will also need to drop considerably further for small caps to have their day. Iraq continues to thumb its nose at the USA, and get hit. Much like two bullies in a school yard, with nothing ultimately changed. Most of Asia continues to recover, with the exception of Japan. Most indexes have recovered 30% or more from this year's lows, with some up over 100%. South Korea and New Zealand and Singapore continue to look the strongest overall to me. Japan finishes the year having recovered only about 12% from its low, and remains close to an 11 year low with little improvement in its economy or governmental policies likely any time soon. Oil prices also remain near long term lows, and the industry is starting to be marked with acquisitions, consolidations, cost cutting, layoffs, non recurring charges (often due to plants closing or layoffs) as cost cutting efforts increase. Other industry groups have gone thru this, and usually emerge healthier for the experience. Retail sales, including online, appear robust and the sector is doing well. Internet stocks continue to trade mostly on future expectations, which is to say lacking fundamentals, earnings, or in many cases sig sales. Still, this sector is an evolving technology and marketing concept. Eventually it will have to settle down, start trading a tad closer to reality, and undergo its period of consolidation and mergers. Some of that has already happened, but it's only beginning. I am slowly moving back into the mkt, now only about 40% cash remaining. This past week of looking at charts showed me some more constructive patterns emerging, and my watch list is expanding. However, this is a difficult week to use as an indicator of what the new year may bring. This will likely be my last post on "M" this year. May all members have a relaxing and enjoyable New Year, and may 1999 be the Year of the CANSLIMers. Tom W - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Connie Mack Rea Subject: [CANSLIM] Technical stuff [Connie Mack] Date: 30 Dec 1998 09:32:57 -0500 OBV/MF candidates from today's run: PTI IXX WLL ARX TIER NVH JH AMFI WDRY CARY PBKS Some of these are sitting on or just breaking through 50/100 EMAs. Therefore, there is some safety in purchase at the present price. That the stock is sitting on a double bottom would give further safety. Keep in mind that OBV/MF criteria must, for me, show positive divergence. That double criterion [criteria] likely forbids that any of these stocks will be CS stocks. That I require both positive divergence of OBV/MF almost always means that a stock near a new high or making a new high doesn't have technical room to show positive divergence. The stock may easily show OBV/MF that is commensurate with price, but there is usually not room to show a positive divergence. E.g., MELI has been mentioned lately. Its OBV/MF is strong. I.e., both OBV/MF and price are rising. For there to be a positive divergence, one would have to establish some relative number or angle of inclination line to say that there was a positive divergence. If one did so establish an OBV/MF positive divergence, the interpretation would be that this strong stock was even stronger than the price indicated. Double bottoms appear both in the stocks that my OBV/MF scans recover and in CS scans that often recover new high breakouts. This is so because stocks that are recovering from lows often make a double bottom before beginning a believable up trend. [Single bottoms are given less trust.] By analogy, stocks that are breaking out to new highs often need to have based, or double bottomed, to be believed. A double bottom is one of the most powerful signatures for technicians irrespective that it may occur at a low, or intermediate, or high price. Connie Mack - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Tim Fisher Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] (Off Topic) PFE Breakout Date: 30 Dec 1998 09:19:44 -0800 Hmmm, seems to me that it's a reaction to being named co. of the year by Forbes. So caveat emptor on a b/o generated by that kind of so-what news. On 11:14 AM 12/29/98 , Craig Griffin Said: >Pivot could be read as 117 (in which case it broke out last week) or 120. >Volume will probably not be 150% of adv (not unusual with big cap >breakouts). Far too large to meet "S" in canSlim. Potentially good as a >mattress stuffer though. > Tim Fisher Ore-Rock-On and Pacific Fishery Biologists WWW Sites Tim@OreRockOn.com WWW: http://OreRockOn.com See naked fish and rocks! - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Craig Griffin Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] (Off Topic) PFE Breakout Date: 30 Dec 1998 13:16:22 -0500 Tim wrote: >Hmmm, seems to me that it's a reaction to being named co. of the year by >Forbes. So caveat emptor on a b/o generated by that kind of so-what news. > But, news is News. Regardless, it broke out at exactly the right place in the chart (and it had to be sitting there when the news came out, or there would not have been a breakout, just a move up). A slightly longer handle would have been preferable, however. Also, it continues to act well today (after the short term effect of the news is fading). It might not work out - but, I, unlike you, do not find the news effect suspect. In fact, I find it positive and likely to provide some long term support for the stock. If the stock closes below 120, I will be a bit worried. Below 117, I will be stopped out. One reason I post these larger cap breakouts is that they are much "safer" (although there is no such thing as a "safe" stock) and also slower off the pivot (generally). - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Johan Van Houtven Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] (Off Topic) PFE Breakout Date: 30 Dec 1998 19:56:11 +0100 Tim, PFE has based for approximately 8 months. That is a nice base. It needed a base, to wear of the Viagra run up. It is an excellent large cap company with quality products. My wife is a pharmacist, so I know a bit about there products and upcomming products ('N'). Definately one of the leaders in its field ('L'). Because of the large float it is not pure CS. I couldn't care less about the large float, as I believe it is much less of any issue now that gorilla big caps have proven to make nice moves quickly. Just sold my margined position in AOL. And I have grown to love big caps this year, as they have been very good to me (LU, MSFT & DELL are other examples from the past 12 months). The news probably helped, but the stock was ready to breakout any day anyway. CS nrs: 87 87 B, not to shabby. I wanted a non-tech stock for now as I feel more comfortable with a non-tech right now. When the market gets rough drug stocks often behave as safe havens. Might just be a functional fantasy however. ;^) I own a lot of PFE so you have a right to call my opinion above biased to the max, if you wish. B) At 01:16 PM 30-12-98 -0500, you wrote: >Tim wrote: >>Hmmm, seems to me that it's a reaction to being named co. of the year by >>Forbes. So caveat emptor on a b/o generated by that kind of so-what news. >> > >But, news is News. Regardless, it broke out at exactly the right place in >the chart (and it had to be sitting there when the news came out, or there >would not have been a breakout, just a move up). A slightly longer handle >would have been preferable, however. > >Also, it continues to act well today (after the short term effect of the >news is fading). It might not work out - but, I, unlike you, do not find >the news effect suspect. In fact, I find it positive and likely to provide >some long term support for the stock. If the stock closes below 120, I >will be a bit worried. Below 117, I will be stopped out. One reason I >post these larger cap breakouts is that they are much "safer" (although >there is no such thing as a "safe" stock) and also slower off the pivot >(generally). > >- > > Johan - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Charles Cangialosi" Subject: [CANSLIM] limit orders Date: 30 Dec 1998 16:34:17 -0500 I have been watching the internet stock go up and down today. I was stopped out of XCIT. Very little loss. It did nothing but go sideways anyway. I was also stopped out of AOL for a profit. I made a decision on how much I wanted to keep and set the stop and stuck with it. I guess the system worked for the guy who was trying to shake out weaker holders. I thought since SEEK was coming down and looked to be turning around I would get some of that since I suddenly had some cash. It was at 49 13/16 or something close to 50. I put in a limit order at 50 hoping to catch it and bang it was executed. Moments later I find that SEEK is at 49 3/4. I thought that the limit order was executed when the stock made the indicated price. Guess I was wrong AGAIN. I dont like feeling rushed in making a transaction but I wanted SEEK at 50 before, I felt like this is my chance. Dr. Alexander Elder probably would have a field day with that one. Charlie - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Joe J." Subject: [CANSLIM] Re: limit orders Date: 30 Dec 1998 14:52:56 -0700 Charles: You want to use a buy stop limit (say at 50, if you want the stock to trade at 50 first and then pay no more than 50) order or just a buy stop (say at 50, if you want the stock to trade at 50 but you will buy at the market once it does) not just a limit order for situations where you want to hit the price prior to entering. Good Trading, Joe J. - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Tim Fisher Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] limit orders Date: 30 Dec 1998 15:18:21 -0800 You put in a buy limit order, which means that you want it at or under the limit price. Since it was trading under the limit, it executed immediately. Maybe what you wanted to do is place a buy stop. WON says, and I agree, never mess with limit orders. Buy at the market and forget about it. On 01:34 PM 12/30/98 , Charles Cangialosi Said: > I have been watching the internet stock go up and down today. I was stopped >out of XCIT. Very little loss. It did nothing but go sideways anyway. I was >also stopped out of AOL for a profit. I made a decision on how much I wanted >to keep and set the stop and stuck with it. I guess the system worked for >the guy who was trying to shake out weaker holders. > I thought since SEEK was coming down and looked to be turning around I >would get some of that since I suddenly had some cash. It was at 49 13/16 >or something close to 50. I put in a limit order at 50 hoping to catch it >and bang it was executed. Moments later I find that SEEK is at 49 3/4. I >thought that the limit order was executed when the stock made the indicated >price. Guess I was wrong AGAIN. I dont like feeling rushed in making a >transaction but I wanted SEEK at 50 before, I felt like this is my chance. >Dr. Alexander Elder probably would have a field day with that one. > >Charlie > > >- > Tim Fisher Ore-Rock-On and Pacific Fishery Biologists WWW Sites Tim@OreRockOn.com WWW: http://OreRockOn.com See naked fish and rocks! - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Charles Cangialosi" Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] limit orders Date: 30 Dec 1998 18:32:55 -0500 Fortunately this was not a very expensive lesson, I was only a few cents off and it was not a lot of shares. I took limited position till I can watch how it goes. In the future a buy stop order is the way to go when I want something at a particular price. With regard to AOL. I have this feeling that I am missing something. Probably tomorrow it will be way up. WON says that one should never be sorry for protecting profit. Perhaps I need to re-evaluate my stop area. Thanks Charlie > -----Original Message----- > From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com > [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Tim Fisher > Sent: Wednesday, December 30, 1998 6:18 PM > To: canslim@lists.xmission.com > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] limit orders > > > You put in a buy limit order, which means that you want it at or under the > limit price. Since it was trading under the limit, it executed > immediately. > Maybe what you wanted to do is place a buy stop. WON says, and I > agree, never > mess with limit orders. Buy at the market and forget about it. > > On 01:34 PM 12/30/98 , Charles Cangialosi Said: > > I have been watching the internet stock go up and down > today. I was > stopped > >out of XCIT. Very little loss. It did nothing but go sideways > anyway. I was > >also stopped out of AOL for a profit. I made a decision on how > much I wanted > >to keep and set the stop and stuck with it. I guess the system worked for > >the guy who was trying to shake out weaker holders. > > I thought since SEEK was coming down and looked to be > turning around I > >would get some of that since I suddenly had some cash. It was > at 49 13/16 > >or something close to 50. I put in a limit order at 50 hoping to catch it > >and bang it was executed. Moments later I find that SEEK is at 49 3/4. I > >thought that the limit order was executed when the stock made > the indicated > >price. Guess I was wrong AGAIN. I dont like feeling rushed in making a > >transaction but I wanted SEEK at 50 before, I felt like this is > my chance. > >Dr. Alexander Elder probably would have a field day with that one. > > > >Charlie > > > > > >- > > > > Tim Fisher > Ore-Rock-On and Pacific Fishery Biologists WWW Sites > > Tim@OreRockOn.com > WWW: http://OreRockOn.com > See naked fish and rocks! > > - > > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: mglieske@us.ibm.com Subject: [CANSLIM] Plotting EPS on a log scale Date: 30 Dec 1998 12:08:49 -0600 I am farily new to Canslim and I just want to confirm I am interpreting O'Neil's recommendation for looking at EPS acceleration and deceleration. In "How to Make Money in Stock" (page 12) he explains how to do it. By example, this is how I interpret his words. Quarterly earnings 1Q97 1 2Q97 2 3Q97 3 4Q97 4 1Q98 2 2Q98 5 3Q98 8 4Q98 11 So I would plot 4 data points (1+2+3+4)=10, (2+3+4+2)=11, Prior (3+4+2+5)=14, Latest (2+5+8+11)=26 on a log scale and look for trending up or down. Anyone have any commets? Thanks, Mike L. ____________________________________________________________________ - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Ari Lawson Subject: [CANSLIM] Re:state of M Date: 30 Dec 1998 19:27:18 -0500 Ciao, I think your scan of the" state of the market" is useful. Thanks Ari - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Walter Stock Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] limit orders Date: 30 Dec 1998 21:34:07 -0500 Hi Charlie, Further to your comment on Elder and Triple Screen, if your time frame is intermediate, then the most recent set of entry points possible occurred back in October. If your time frame is shorter term (daily MACD), then the most recent entry points possible would be back on the 4th or 7th of December. Dr Elder would definitely not be buying SEEK here, unless it were for a very short-term intraday trade. Just wanted to clear this up for any newbies. Walter Charles Cangialosi wrote: > I have been watching the internet stock go up and down today. I was stopped > out of XCIT. Very little loss. It did nothing but go sideways anyway. I was > also stopped out of AOL for a profit. I made a decision on how much I wanted > to keep and set the stop and stuck with it. I guess the system worked for > the guy who was trying to shake out weaker holders. > I thought since SEEK was coming down and looked to be turning around I > would get some of that since I suddenly had some cash. It was at 49 13/16 > or something close to 50. I put in a limit order at 50 hoping to catch it > and bang it was executed. Moments later I find that SEEK is at 49 3/4. I > thought that the limit order was executed when the stock made the indicated > price. Guess I was wrong AGAIN. I dont like feeling rushed in making a > transaction but I wanted SEEK at 50 before, I felt like this is my chance. > Dr. Alexander Elder probably would have a field day with that one. > > Charlie > > - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Walter Stock Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Response to Alternative to CS-Example of a trade Date: 30 Dec 1998 21:57:16 -0500 Hi Joe, Thank you for the detailed description of this trade. I appreciate your time and effort. Insofar as both Williams and WON look for bases on a chart, they have at least this element in common, though Williams seem a little more technical in his search. My local bookstore doesn't carry either of the two books you mentioned, although Amazon does (and has a brief description and comments from readers), so I may order from them. Last question: does Williams' method provide consistent results, or does it rely on a few big winners to offset a lot of losers ? If the question is too "non-Canslim" please reply privately. Thanks again, Walter Joe J. wrote: > Walter responded to my recent post on Williams' Chaos Theory asking if I > could post an example of an actual trade and how the method worked. Tom > later posted his remarks that he wasn't interested. Well, I've been > around this list long enough to remember the Tom and Jeff war and > remember Tom leaving the list on two different occasions, yada yada. I > don't wish to offend anyone with this post so just skip if you have no > interest. But, let me say this - I've been in the market off and on > since 1988. I've traded stocks, options, and futures. I've tried a lot > of different things during that time (including CS). Some worked better > than others and some didn't work at all. There are methods that work in > the market besides CS, let me assure you of that! Ultimately, everyone > needs to find one that works for them and that they are comfortable > with. Bill Williams' method works for me. I think enough of this group > to share that with you. > > Here is an actual recent trade I entered into: > > After the market close on 12/18 (a Friday), I downloaded my daily quote > information from QuotePlus 2 and updated my MetaStock (MS) directories > (I do this every night and run the MS scan every night). I basically > keep two directories in MS, one is higher average volume stocks with > some decent volatility and an internet directory which has every stock > that I could find which has an internet related business (these > databases are of my own choice not that of Bill Williams). I then run > MS's Explorer with a custom scan I wrote to look for "flat" moving > averages. > > Basically, you are looking for charts which have three moving averages > coming together in a flat pattern. The MA's (all exponential) are a 13 > day moved forward 8 days, an 8 day moved forward 5 days, and a 5 day > moved forward 3 days. What I mean by moved forward is for example a 5 > day moving average's value 3 days ago. When these three averages are > "flat" and wound together, you are in a "range". You then need to look > for fractal breakouts either to the upside or downside. Fractals are a > high (for upside breakouts) or a low (for downside breakouts) which are > a intraday high with two lower highs on the prior two days and two lower > highs on the following two days and vice versa for the fractal low. > > In addition, two MACD's are used to basically find values close to zero > relative to the stock's MACD's history (basically a 5/34/5 is used but > of the midpoint not the close). Again, confirming the idea of a "base" > in the stock. > > Now, pull up a chart of AMTD. On 12/18, the stock was in a "flat" > trading period. The last fractal high was on 12/10/98 when the high was > 21 3/8 and the last fractal low was on 12/14 at 19 1/8. For Monday > 12/21, I placed an order to buy 300 shares of AMTD on a buy stop limit > for 21 7/16 (a tick above 21 3/8). It was hit that day as the high was > 21 3/4. I set my stop to a tick below the fractal low at 19 1/16. The > next day the stock gaps open on "news" and trades over 37. I took 150 > shares down at 29 plus and another 75 shares down around 33 plus that > day (this to is not per Williams just my "gut" feeling that when these > internet stocks move up 50% in one day - ah, take some profits since > they can come crashing down just as fast). Normally, unless a stock > jumps 25% or more in one day, I just move my trailing stops up with the > price action (all explained in Williams' book). Internets have there > "own" set of rules! Actually, I had a couple of internets shoot up on > me (CYCH and WAVO) - both doubling in a couple of days only to come > crashing down just as quick over the next couple of days leaving me with > less profit than I would have liked to risk giving back that prompted me > to take at least something off the table with the internets. > > I have used this method to trade non-internets quite well also. Recent > examples include SBUX, AES, BBY, ERICY just to name a few. > > Obviously, I can't post the whole system so I don't do Bill Williams' > book, "New Trading Dimensions" justice here. But, if you like the > concept of buying or shorting off a base, ignoring the fundamentals, and > don't mind buying or shorting breakouts, you might find this system > works for you. What I like about it is that you can really go with > what's hot. Poor CS get largely zapped from the internet frenzy because > of the harsh rules. Ask yourself this, do you really want to follow a > system that has left you out of the internet frenzy? If so, fine no > problem. I agree that it is not for everyone. But, if not here is > something that you might want to explore. > > Good Trading, > > Joe J. > > - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: mikelu Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Plotting EPS on a log scale Date: 30 Dec 1998 19:57:15 -0800 For growth, compare a quarter with the same quarter a year ago. So you have 1Q98: 2/1-1=100% growth from previous year's quarter 2Q98: 5/2-1=150% 3Q98: 8/3-1=167% 4Q98: 11/4-1=175% Since the growth number itself is growing, you have acceleration. Mike -----Original Message----- Sent: Wednesday, December 30, 1998 10:09 AM I am farily new to Canslim and I just want to confirm I am interpreting O'Neil's recommendation for looking at EPS acceleration and deceleration. In "How to Make Money in Stock" (page 12) he explains how to do it. By example, this is how I interpret his words. Quarterly earnings 1Q97 1 2Q97 2 3Q97 3 4Q97 4 1Q98 2 2Q98 5 3Q98 8 4Q98 11 So I would plot 4 data points (1+2+3+4)=10, (2+3+4+2)=11, Prior (3+4+2+5)=14, Latest (2+5+8+11)=26 on a log scale and look for trending up or down. Anyone have any commets? Thanks, Mike L. ____________________________________________________________________ - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Zoran Mitrovski" Subject: [CANSLIM] PFE, CMVT, ... Date: 30 Dec 1998 23:32:48 -0500 I agree with Craig and Johan on PFE. Rarely has there been a chance within the past five years to enter this rocket off of such a substantial base. And what a five year (logarithmic) chart that one is! I stuffed my mattress with this one. On a different note. Take a look at CMVT (97 94 A A A) and how it slowly approaches its 17 DMA on diminishing volume. Simple trade: Get in here ($69) and wait. Stop @ 66. Enter with a position size which would produce a loss of 2% of your trading capital if the stop got hit (Elder). Cheers, Zoran mitrovski@att.net - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Charles Cangialosi" Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] limit orders Date: 31 Dec 1998 03:45:50 -0500 Hi Walter, I am not up to Elders trading system yet. I was referring to part of the book where he refers to trading just to trade. I had thought about that but decided that I have been wanting to buy SEEK for a while but was going to wait till I had cash did not want to do it on margin. I am really looking forward to getting up to the triple screen part. I have been hearing a lot about it and so far I really like the book. Thanks Charlie > -----Original Message----- > From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com > [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Walter Stock > Sent: Wednesday, December 30, 1998 9:34 PM > To: canslim@lists.xmission.com > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] limit orders > > > Hi Charlie, > > Further to your comment on Elder and Triple Screen, if your time frame > is intermediate, then the most recent set of entry points possible > occurred back in October. > > If your time frame is shorter term (daily MACD), then the most > recent entry points possible would be back on the 4th or 7th of December. > > Dr Elder would definitely not be buying SEEK here, unless it were for a > very short-term intraday trade. > > Just wanted to clear this up for any newbies. > > Walter > > > Charles Cangialosi wrote: > > > I have been watching the internet stock go up and down > today. I was stopped > > out of XCIT. Very little loss. It did nothing but go sideways > anyway. I was > > also stopped out of AOL for a profit. I made a decision on how > much I wanted > > to keep and set the stop and stuck with it. I guess the system > worked for > > the guy who was trying to shake out weaker holders. > > I thought since SEEK was coming down and looked to be > turning around I > > would get some of that since I suddenly had some cash. It was > at 49 13/16 > > or something close to 50. I put in a limit order at 50 hoping > to catch it > > and bang it was executed. Moments later I find that SEEK is at 49 3/4. I > > thought that the limit order was executed when the stock made > the indicated > > price. Guess I was wrong AGAIN. I dont like feeling rushed in making a > > transaction but I wanted SEEK at 50 before, I felt like this is > my chance. > > Dr. Alexander Elder probably would have a field day with that one. > > > > Charlie > > > > - > > > > > - > > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: musicant@autobahn.org (Dan Musicant) Subject: [CANSLIM] Sell before new year for tax purposes? Date: 31 Dec 1998 15:57:18 GMT I think (hope!) that I will have a less tax burden this year than next. I have one position, and am about 70% in cash. Should I sell my one position today? Last year I was 100% in cash on New Years Day, and figuring things out was simple. How does this work? I will have one buy that isn't balanced by a sell. Thanks for the help. Dan - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Johan Van Houtven Subject: [CANSLIM] CANSLIM board on Yahoo Date: 31 Dec 1998 19:17:30 +0100 Came across a CANSLIM 'club' board at: http://clubs.yahoo.com/clubs/canslim As I find these WEB-based boards to much of a hassle (they are so slow) I haven't read a lot of msgs on that board, but there seem to be a few knowledgeable people over there. Maybe someone could invite them over? :) Johan - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] Happy New Year, and small caps KICK BUTT Date: 31 Dec 1998 16:38:39 -0500 Don't have the final figures yet, but I sure like the way the Russell 2000 finished the year. Looks like a 2.5% gain for New Year's Eve, again beating the rest of the indexes. My only regret is not being more aggressive with my #1 buy, would have made me over 10% today alone. At this point, appears that R2000 is passing thru resistance and ready to strive for new records early in 1999, which would fit with the models. Tom W - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "John Iding" Subject: [CANSLIM] Happy New Year! Date: 31 Dec 1998 14:09:11 -0800 Wishing all of you a great new year ... and continued success in 1999 ... which has a nice ring to it ... John - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "John Iding" Subject: [CANSLIM] Happy New Year! Date: 31 Dec 1998 14:09:11 -0800 Wishing all of you a great new year ... and continued success in 1999 ... which has a nice ring to it ... John - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "james sullivan" Subject: [CANSLIM] HAPPY NEW YEAR Date: 31 Dec 1998 17:27:54 -0500 A very Happy New Year to all of you!! - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: JANSI1AUG1@aol.com Subject: [CANSLIM] Re. IBD 12/31/98 Article Date: 31 Dec 1998 18:20:45 EST Canslimmers: I copied and pasted this IBD article I read in today's IBD. I believe it has a lot of useful information. Everyone: Have a Happy & PROSPEROUS New Year. jans Timing your stock buys can be a tricky affair. No one likes to buy a stock and then find himself staring at a loss. When you buy there's a bit of naive enthusiasm that permeates the psyche. You've researched this stock. It looks good. Earnings look fine. The technical pattern is just right. It should work. I N V E S T O R ' S C O R N E R But then the stock reverses. It falls back into the base. Dismay and confusion set in. You don't know what to do. Even with the general market rallying, stocks such as Mylan Laboratories, BMC Software and yes, even one of the hot Internet stocks - RealNetworks -did the unthinkable. They failed on a breakout. Investors must be on their toes when buying a stock on a breakout from what appears to be a solid base of at least seven weeks. A base is a sideways stock price pattern formed following a previous advance. The general anticipation is the stock will follow through on the breakout and move higher. This is not always the case. Investors who learn to spot these duds quickly will be able to avoid having their money tied up in non- performers and possible big losers. ''The most important rule of trading is to play great defense, not great offense,'' said Paul Tudor Jones in ''Market Wizards,'' Jack Schwager's classic collection of interviews with top traders. ''Every day I assume every position I have is wrong.'' There are some key elements to quickly spotting a breakout that is false: * The stock fails to follow through. * It shows heavy volume on down days. * It fails to rise on strong market days. * It undercuts prior support. Strayer Education is a typical example. The stock broke out of a 13-month basing pattern on expanding volume and moved into new high ground. The move came on Nov. 18 as the stock drove ahead to 40 1/2, cutting through resistance at 37. The provider of undergraduate and graduate programs has decent earnings growth of 20%. The breakout looked legit. The stock rose to an intraday high of 41 1/4 the next day. All seemed well. However, the stock then drifted back the next six sessions. It eventually gave up the ghost. It fell back into the base and is now around 35. Will it re-emerge? Maybe. In any case, the stock is in its prior trading range. The breakout failed. Dell Computer, a leader with a 99 Earnings Per Share rating from IBD, attempted a breakout Nov. 10 when it rose to 72 1/2, overcoming resistance at 69. The breakout came on expanding volume. The stock moved to as high as 73 1/2 the next day. There was a hitch, though. Volume declined from the day before. The breakout was showing a lack of conviction. Dell then fell back with volume expanding the next two sessions. The stock dropped back into its base. The breakout failed. Dell has since attempted another breakout in late December, getting to 74 5/8. The jury is still out on whether the stock will head substantially higher. Volume once again showed the same light pattern on up days like in November. However, it may be the result of the holidays. BMC Software is a case of a breakout where the stock failed to move higher with the market. The key here: its Relative Strength had weakened. BMC drove to 56 1/4 on Dec. 2, pushing through the top of a consolidation at 53. But the stock was lagging. Its Relative Strength line had been in a downtrend since early October. The breakout failed the next day. The stock fell back 5 1/4 points to 51. Any investor who bit on this one should have been out on the immediate reversal day. The stock retreated to as low as 39 during the next two weeks. It's a clear example of what can happen if you don't react quickly to a reversal. RealNetworks attempted a breakout Nov. 10. The stock closed at 47 3/4, leaping out of the top of its base at 42. All looked well as volume expanded on the move. The next day the stock did an about face, falling back to 41 5/8 and back into the base. The stock violated the basic principle of a breakout. When it broke out of the base, 42 represented resistance. After clearing that hurdle, 42 became a potential support area. The fact the stock was unable to use 42 as support was the tip-off the breakout was doomed. It failed the test. RealNetworks fell back to as low as 32 during the next four weeks. It then recovered, but on Wednesday RealNetworks was again retesting its recent lows. //////////////////////////////////////////////////////////// Copyright (c) 1998 Investors Business Daily, All rights reserved. Investor's Business Daily - Investor's Corner (12/31/98) How To Spot Trouble With Breakouts By Leo Fasciocco 12/31/98 11:58 - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Joan Sherman Subject: [CANSLIM] Happy New Year Date: 31 Dec 1998 19:04:53 -0400 Party safely everybody. Happy New Year to you all. Joan Sherman - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: David Reid Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] HAPPY NEW YEAR Date: 31 Dec 1998 19:44:45 -0800 ditto from me thanks for all the advice this year . It has been an education for me. David Reid Brown Summit NC james sullivan wrote: > A very Happy New Year to all of you!! > > - -