From: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com (canslim-digest) To: canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Subject: canslim-digest V2 #1009 Reply-To: canslim Sender: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Errors-To: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Precedence: bulk Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable X-No-Archive: yes canslim-digest Friday, September 22 2000 Volume 02 : Number 1009 In this issue: Re: [CANSLIM] after the close Re: [CANSLIM] after the close Re: [CANSLIM] WON sales pitches in HTMMIS Re: [CANSLIM] Analyst Whores Re: [CANSLIM] WON sales pitches in HTMMIS Re: [CANSLIM] Analyst Whores [CANSLIM] Todays M [CANSLIM] No, oh well Re: [CANSLIM] No, oh well Re: [CANSLIM] Todays M Re: [CANSLIM] Todays M ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Date: 21 Sep 2000 18:11:54 -0700 From: "Tim Fisher" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] after the close Many of the techs were trading way down after hours. AMAT and AMD are following INTC to new YTD lows. Fallen angel TER was down 35% at one point. Tomorrow is guaranteed to be hell for techs. Strange, I sold AZA as it hit my +25% limit today, but will sell SUNW on my stop if the aftermarket quote holds up tomorrow. There is a real split between tech and non-tech (esp. chips, chip equip, box makers) after hours today. PMRY, DELL, MU, CPQ all bombed after hours. At 05:50 PM 9/21/00 -0600, you wrote: >Intel issued an earnings warning after the close, still early, but >NASDAQ futures are trading down 92 points, the S&P futures are >down around 25 points, so tomorrow will probably be pretty rocky >in the morning. I'm a terrible market prognosticator, but given the >recent weakness, this might be enough to kill any chances for a >rally in the next month to two (but like I said, I'm usually wrong on >these things). > >- Tim Fisher, 1995 President, Pacific Fishery Biologists Ore-ROCK-On Rockhounding Web Site PFB Information mailto:tim@OreRockOn.com WWW http://OreRockOn.com - - ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 21 Sep 2000 22:54:12 -0400 From: Surindra Singh Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] after the close If you are sitting on lots of cash, it may be buying time for next week or two (non canslim though).The gas prices are going up, what do you think of ifny (infinity)? hope everyone who believes in canslim is not out of the market tomorrow. time to make money i guess. surindra - ----- Original Message ----- From: "Patrick Wahl" To: Sent: Thursday, September 21, 2000 7:50 PM Subject: [CANSLIM] after the close Intel issued an earnings warning after the close, still early, but NASDAQ futures are trading down 92 points, the S&P futures are down around 25 points, so tomorrow will probably be pretty rocky in the morning. I'm a terrible market prognosticator, but given the recent weakness, this might be enough to kill any chances for a rally in the next month to two (but like I said, I'm usually wrong on these things). - - - - ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 21 Sep 2000 23:01:13 -0400 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] WON sales pitches in HTMMIS Hi Jim, You are correct that my copies are both First Edition, old like me. But since many of WON's formulas are proprietary, and have yet to be "cracked" to the best of my knowledge, where else will you get fully authentic CANSLIM data than IBD, DGO or Daily Graphs books? Most "system promoters" are also self promoters, so I am pretty insensitive to that stuff. Pushing his own products makes sense to me. But I must admit I am a little turned off by the growth of advertising in IBD over the past five years or so, especially from competitors. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net ICQ # 5568838 - ----- Original Message ----- From: To: Sent: Thursday, September 21, 2000 2:00 PM Subject: [CANSLIM] WON sales pitches in HTMMIS Tom, I'm guessing you have an earlier edition of HTMMIS than the copy I own. True, I've only read my copy three times, but my copy has what I consider an inordinate number of IBD and DGO sales pitches however veiled some of them are. His [and David Ryan's] audio tapes also have similar self-promotion. Most people have to earn a living [including WON], but I'm just revealing some of the biases his publications have IMO. When I have the perfect system, I'll probably have to blatantly promote it too. Caveat Emptor. Jim - - - - ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 21 Sep 2000 23:13:11 -0400 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Analyst Whores Hi Tim, I am also very biased against analysts, but don't find your list unusual. In a 3 month period or so, they initiated coverage, upgraded (presumably with some target figure), then downgraded (maybe because their target was reached quicker than expected thus stripping out the premium). The biggest gripe I have with analysts is downgrading just because their 12 month target is reached in six months or so, without reviewing their original basis for the forecast, and assessing if the company is doing better than they expected (in which case they should up their target and renew or upgrade their recommendation instead). Downgrades should only occur when the company's fundamentals (or the industry group) have measurably deteriorated. And what truly and frequently amazes me is the magnitude of drops on a downgrade. When it's a big house, it is readily apparent that not only their retail brokers, but also their fund managers, immediately adopt the company line and sell without any thought on their part. So much for fund managers being independent thinkers. Their philosophy of "OK, I was right and we made money on that one, now let's see if I can be right on another one" really grates on me. It is also contrary to the CANSLIM concept of holding on to your strongest stocks. Were I independently wealthy, I would love to build a free website (maybe with some future subscription costs as I would hate to prostitute myself to the advertising revenues game) where I could monitor and grade analysts and media airhead commentators on their accuracy and history. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net ICQ # 5568838 - ----- Original Message ----- From: Tim Fisher To: Sent: Thursday, September 21, 2000 11:23 AM Subject: [CANSLIM] Analyst Whores OK, I know I'm personally biased against analysts, but maybe Tom or someone could shed some light on this. SCSC, which I own, was downgraded today by BB&T. Now I have never heard of them, so I looked up the history of SCSC recommendations on CNET. Here's what I got. (warning, I'm messing with formatting here again!). My question is, are these guys whores or what? Who ever heard of changing your recommendation practically every month? One thing is for sure, SCSC never seems to react to these dorks. Date Broker Report Source 9/21/00 BB&T Capital Mkts ScanSource downgraded from Strong Buy to Long Term Buy at BB&T Capital Mkts Briefing.com 8/18/00 BB&T Capital Mkts ScanSource upgraded from Long Term Buy to Strong Buy at BB&T Capital Mkts Briefing.com 6/28/00 BB&T Capital Mkts ScanSource initiated at BB&T Capital Mkts with a Long Term Buy Briefing.com 6/23/00 Raymond James ScanSource, Inc. initiated at Raymond James with a Strong Buy Briefing.com Tim Fisher Ore-Rock-On and Pacific Fishery Biologists WWW Sites Tim@OreRockOn.com WWW: http://OreRockOn.com See naked fish and rocks! - - - - ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 21 Sep 2000 22:19:53 -0500 From: Kent Norman Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] WON sales pitches in HTMMIS It may be seen as self promotion, but don't we all talk about good things? Many like the CANSLIM method and therefore tout it. Others like and speak of it. Seems it would be a red alarm is WON were to say something like " my products are the best, but I use astrology". If I invent a good system, you can bet I will tell all my friends. But don't hold your breath. Kent - ---- Tom Worley wrote: > Hi Jim, > > Most "system promoters" are also self promoters, so > I am pretty insensitive to that stuff. Pushing his own products > makes sense to me. But I must admit I am a little turned off by > the growth of advertising in IBD over the past five years or so, > especially from competitors. - - ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 22 Sep 2000 09:53:48 -0700 From: Eric Shen Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Analyst Whores Tom, There's http://www.validea.com that ranks the experts. However it looks a bit dated. There's also http://www.bigtipper.com It's $5/month. Don't know about this one. Tom Worley wrote: > > Hi Tim, > > I am also very biased against analysts, but don't find your list > unusual. In a 3 month period or so, they initiated coverage, > upgraded (presumably with some target figure), then downgraded > (maybe because their target was reached quicker than expected > thus stripping out the premium). > > The biggest gripe I have with analysts is downgrading just > because their 12 month target is reached in six months or so, > without reviewing their original basis for the forecast, and > assessing if the company is doing better than they expected (in > which case they should up their target and renew or upgrade their > recommendation instead). Downgrades should only occur when the > company's fundamentals (or the industry group) have measurably > deteriorated. > > And what truly and frequently amazes me is the magnitude of drops > on a downgrade. When it's a big house, it is readily apparent > that not only their retail brokers, but also their fund managers, > immediately adopt the company line and sell without any thought > on their part. So much for fund managers being independent > thinkers. > > Their philosophy of "OK, I was right and we made money on that > one, now let's see if I can be right on another one" really > grates on me. It is also contrary to the CANSLIM concept of > holding on to your strongest stocks. > > Were I independently wealthy, I would love to build a free > website (maybe with some future subscription costs as I would > hate to prostitute myself to the advertising revenues game) where > I could monitor and grade analysts and media airhead commentators > on their accuracy and history. > > Tom Worley > stkguru@netside.net > ICQ # 5568838 > > ----- Original Message ----- > From: Tim Fisher > To: > Sent: Thursday, September 21, 2000 11:23 AM > Subject: [CANSLIM] Analyst Whores > > OK, I know I'm personally biased against analysts, but maybe Tom > or someone > could shed some light on this. SCSC, which I own, was downgraded > today by > BB&T. Now I have never heard of them, so I looked up the history > of SCSC > recommendations on CNET. Here's what I got. (warning, I'm messing > with > formatting here again!). My question is, are these guys whores or > what? Who > ever heard of changing your recommendation practically every > month? One > thing is for sure, SCSC never seems to react to these dorks. > > Date > Broker > Report > > Source > 9/21/00 > BB&T Capital Mkts > ScanSource downgraded from Strong Buy > to Long > Term Buy at BB&T > Capital Mkts > > Briefing.com > 8/18/00 > BB&T Capital Mkts > ScanSource upgraded from Long Term Buy > to Strong > Buy at BB&T Capital > Mkts > > Briefing.com > 6/28/00 > BB&T Capital Mkts > ScanSource initiated at BB&T Capital > Mkts with a > Long Term Buy > > Briefing.com > 6/23/00 > Raymond James > ScanSource, Inc. initiated at Raymond > James with > a Strong Buy > > Briefing.com > > Tim Fisher > Ore-Rock-On and Pacific Fishery Biologists WWW Sites > > Tim@OreRockOn.com > WWW: http://OreRockOn.com > See naked fish and rocks! > > - > > - - -- Eric Shen MS LOC3-8 Intel Corporation email: eshen@level1.com 9750 Goethe Road Tel: (916) 855 5177 x4497 Sacramento, CA 95827 - - ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 22 Sep 2000 17:10:33 EDT From: Kraus0R@cs.com Subject: [CANSLIM] Todays M I have a quick question about todays trading on NAS. Would it be considered A or D. I realize that we ended down, but the entire day was spent moving up from the open. Curious to hear your opinions. Thanks, Roger - - ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 22 Sep 2000 20:10:46 -0400 From: "John Hobbs" Subject: [CANSLIM] No, oh well Here's my brave thing to do this after joining this list, being a newbie, ask about a local stock - Michigan, don't know why i can not find it in IBD, maybe dyslexic. Anyone got an interest in this one? Co. is Comuware (CPWR) Sales: 2,230.6M - 3/00 increase 36% 1,638.4M - 3/99 increase 48% 1,139.3M - 3/98 increase 40% 812.9M - 3/97 increase 32% 614.4 M - 3/96 Net Income: o.k not as great an increase last year vs. this - EPS same kind of let down this year 352.0 - 3/00 349.9 - 3/99 193.9 - 3/98 97.4 - 3/97 44.2 - 3/96 There was a lot of stuff going on with this co. during Y2K, a small part of their resource commitment. (stock highs?) Anyway, look at the charts and i (Mr. trying to read the numbers) see this as maybe a good 12 month call. Admittedly, i did not wait for the cup handle. net profit margin 12%, well maybe that's CanSlimian. But anyway, being just the beginner i bought shares today. - - ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 22 Sep 2000 20:56:36 -0400 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] No, oh well Hi John, As for not finding it in IBD, you misspelled it below, and that may be the problem. Correct spelling is Compuware. It is not a CANSLIM stock at present. While sales had been growing strongly, the past two quarters were only up 16% year over year according to DGO. And while full year earnings were also growing, the results for 4th quarter last year (ended March '00) were down 52% from 4th qtr '99. And 1st qtr this year earnings were down 63%. Reflecting this, consensus of the analysts is for only a net this full year of 68 cents, down 33% over last year. EPS is currently at 51, and RS at 6, further blocking any CANSLIM consideration. I have bottom fished a number of stocks myself, don't do that any more, just try to stick to ones with high RS and EPS where the earnings are accelerating, not falling. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net ICQ # 5568838 - ----- Original Message ----- From: John Hobbs To: Sent: Friday, September 22, 2000 8:10 PM Subject: [CANSLIM] No, oh well Here's my brave thing to do this after joining this list, being a newbie, ask about a local stock - Michigan, don't know why i can not find it in IBD, maybe dyslexic. Anyone got an interest in this one? Co. is Comuware (CPWR) Sales: 2,230.6M - 3/00 increase 36% 1,638.4M - 3/99 increase 48% 1,139.3M - 3/98 increase 40% 812.9M - 3/97 increase 32% 614.4 M - 3/96 Net Income: o.k not as great an increase last year vs. this - EPS same kind of let down this year 352.0 - 3/00 349.9 - 3/99 193.9 - 3/98 97.4 - 3/97 44.2 - 3/96 There was a lot of stuff going on with this co. during Y2K, a small part of their resource commitment. (stock highs?) Anyway, look at the charts and i (Mr. trying to read the numbers) see this as maybe a good 12 month call. Admittedly, i did not wait for the cup handle. net profit margin 12%, well maybe that's CanSlimian. But anyway, being just the beginner i bought shares today. - - - - ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 22 Sep 2000 19:11:35 -0600 From: Earl Setser Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Todays M I would count this as a Distribution Day, we lost ground overall on higher volume. However, you would certainly want to put an asterik saying that the day started poorly, and gained all day. The market also seemed to bounce back above support fairly nicely. However, there was still big volume and a small loss for the day. At 05:10 PM 9/22/00 EDT, you wrote: >I have a quick question about todays trading on NAS. Would it be considered >A or D. I realize that we ended down, but the entire day was spent moving up >from the open. Curious to hear your opinions. > >Thanks, >Roger > >- > > > - - ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 22 Sep 2000 21:46:06 -0400 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Todays M I would say it was a day for the big boys to take a bruising, and come out still surviving. After starting the day down over 200 points, and futures being limit down all night before that, it was pretty impressive to see the day end with NASDAQ down only 25 points. And on over two billion shares. And without any meaningful recovery by Intel. And the DOW 30 finished up for the day, despite the presence of Intel. While both the Naz Composite and the Naz 100 closed down for the day, it was less than a percent, and at the high of the day. Not bad for a Friday, clearly many were willing to hold a position over the weekend. And the Russell 2000, which gave ground only grudgingly, closed up about 0.8% for the day on good volume. My IRA, entirely in low priced small and micro cap stocks, gained 2.5% for the day. I'm not unhappy! Note that the bases formed back in June, July and early August are proving to be support areas now. Both the Naz 100 and Composite closed today right smack dab in the middle of those bases. But they could quickly turn into overhead resistance as well. What really amazes me about today (aside from the record of over 300 million shares of Intel that traded representing over 11 billion dollars) is how quickly the commentators and analysts could take Intel's comments about how revenues will fall short due a weak Euro and interpret it as a slowdown in sales. Note that Intel did not talk about an earnings shortfall, maybe they already hedged the Euro?? Don't these airheads understand foreign exchange / currency exchange rates? And did Intel's announcement have any bearing on the timing of five interventions on behalf of the Euro early this morning (USA, Canada, Japan, Britain, European Central Bank). This is only the second time the USA has intervened, and comes a day before the G-7 meet to discuss, among other things, the weak Euro and its affect on developed nations. I expect oil pricing will be another hot topic. Coming before the meeting, and being coordinated with several powerful nations, came as quite a surprise to the currency traders. News this weekend from G-7, and trading next week, look most interesting. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net ICQ # 5568838 - ----- Original Message ----- From: To: Sent: Friday, September 22, 2000 5:10 PM Subject: [CANSLIM] Todays M I have a quick question about todays trading on NAS. Would it be considered A or D. I realize that we ended down, but the entire day was spent moving up from the open. Curious to hear your opinions. Thanks, Roger - - - - ------------------------------ End of canslim-digest V2 #1009 ****************************** To unsubscribe to canslim-digest, send an email to "majordomo@xmission.com" with "unsubscribe canslim-digest" in the body of the message. For information on digests or retrieving files and old messages send "help" to the same address. Do not use quotes in your message.