From: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com (canslim-digest) To: canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Subject: canslim-digest V2 #114 Reply-To: canslim Sender: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Errors-To: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Precedence: bulk canslim-digest Wednesday, February 11 1998 Volume 02 : Number 114 In this issue: Re: [CANSLIM] Bid size and ask size Re: [CANSLIM] Possible Trades? [CANSLIM] World Markets [CANSLIM] Totally non-CANSLIM (SOCR) Re: [CANSLIM] Software? [CANSLIM] Intro: Craig Hogan Re: [CANSLIM] Intro: Craig Hogan Re: [CANSLIM] Intro: Craig Hogan Re: [CANSLIM] Intro: Craig Hogan [CANSLIM] Spot [CANSLIM] CNCX Re: [CANSLIM] Intro: Craig Hogan Re: [CANSLIM] CNCX Re: [CANSLIM] CNCX [CANSLIM] Short Term "M" [CANSLIM] CTI Re: [CANSLIM] ELNK (was CNCX) Re: [CANSLIM] CTI Re: [CANSLIM] ELNK Re: [CANSLIM] Intro: Craig Hogan ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Date: Tue, 10 Feb 1998 21:48:07 -0500 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Bid size and ask size Not sure what you mean by "processed". The displayed bid and ask size represents the nr of shares (in hundreds) being represented there. On listed securities (NYSE, AMEX) it should be an accurate nr as it comes from the floor specialist. On OTC stocks, it may not be accurate as it now only shows the quantity at the high bid and low offer BDs, and I have some doubts it even shows that. However, any other BD being presented with an order within mkt pricing must either honor the best bid/ask pricing or else send it to another BD, so it is common place for the offer for example to be 10 (representing 10 hundred shares (1000)) and see a thousand or more trade there and not see the size change. All this suggests is that the buyer bot his shares at a BD other than the one that was then the low offer. Using just the bid and ask size on a quote gives you some clue to whether the stock wants to go higher or lower. A larger bid size suggests that there is more demand for the stock than supply, altho may also suggest there is a finite price they are willing to pay. Size can sometimes also suggest short term support or resistance (say, for the next five minutes or so), but can also be misleading. On MDC today (hit another new high, thank goodness) I saw a single trade go thru for 12,000 shares on the offer (then 17.5), took the offer right out and went to 17.625, but the size of the offer at the time was for only a few thousand shares. Within minutes after that, someone went low offer at 17.5 for 1400 shares and it never traded over 17.5 for the rest of the day. I got excited when I saw such a large single trade go thru, esp on the offer (avg daily vol only 90,000), but had to settle for only a 4.8% gain for the day. I doubt there is any site that breaks down how many shares were either bot or sold, and truth is that for every share bot, there must be an equal nr sold, even if they were being shorted. If there is any site attempting to educate us on this area, hopefully someone will post it. However, I find it's a better guage to just use the up/down ratio, and watch whether it is increasing or decreasing . Any statements or opinions are strictly my own and not that of my employer. My comments should not be interpreted as a recommendation of any kind. I am a licensed (inactive) broker and an active investor. All investors should do their own research prior to any investment, especially one learned about on the Internet. Hopefully my comments will better inform and educate all investors. tom w - -----Original Message----- From: Arthur Hsiao To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Date: Tuesday, February 10, 1998 4:47 PM Subject: [CANSLIM] Bid size and ask size >When I check the bid/ask sizes, are they the ones that have been processed? > What is the >indication if they are equal or (one is bigger than the other)? > >Is there a place that I can check how many shares have been sold and >purchased for some certain >stocks everyday? > >Thanks > >- > - - ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 10 Feb 1998 22:33:55 -0500 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Possible Trades? Beg to differ, APCO is extended over 10% from its base, and below the $12 threshold recommended. GETTY has an EPS of 14, and also right at the 10% extended level. Monday's volume on ARBR was major, so was today's and it still managed a small gain. Considering the float, and the percent holdings by both management and funds, would investigate more carefully where the volume coming from. I haven't checked news to see if they did a secondary or some such, but definitely suspect, but too large to have come from "a fund" or "an insider" selling as an individual. This one may have some smoke to it, suggesting the underlying fire, however it does have good CS elements. Remember too with OTC stocks you can get double volume reporting, esp when big blocks may have moved between two different BDs. That said, the last 4 qtrs of earnings and revenues, as well as the five year earnings growth rate of 14%, and a trailing PE of 38, all suggest to me that 1998 may be a "zero growth rate" for this one, thus still could prove to be a good short. Just don't be misled by the volume for yesterday and today without checking it out first. Any statements or opinions are strictly my own and not that of my employer. My comments should not be interpreted as a recommendation of any kind. I am a licensed (inactive) broker and an active investor. All investors should do their own research prior to any investment, especially one learned about on the Internet. Hopefully my comments will better inform and educate all investors. tom w - -----Original Message----- From: Jerry & Tonia Joldersma To: canslim@xmission.com Date: Monday, February 09, 1998 11:15 PM Subject: [CANSLIM] Possible Trades? >APCO and GETTY made new highs today on high volume; both have good CANSLIM >numbers. Feedback? > >Connie, ARBR is a possible short tomorrow morning -- pattern plus climax >volume surge plus hunch ..... > >-- Jerry > > > >- > - - ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 10 Feb 1998 22:53:23 -0500 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] World Markets Well, at this point not seeing the followthru I was hoping for in Asia. Big caps kinda ho-hum, altho techs appear to be still very strong. After such a good day on Wall Street, including a new record closing high by the Dow 30 and another record by the S&P500 and NASDAQ over 1700, did think we might see a reaction overseas. May just be too early, will take a peek tomorrow morning. I'm not kicking, my 401 funds did well today, and had 2 of 5 stocks I own hit new highs, one on 4X avg vol. The one stock in my IRA is up 43% in a month, and I am behaving real greedy. Just kicking myself for not moving on TIER this morning at 12.25, meant selling two underperformers, which naturally went south while TIER took off. Oh well, next time. Any statements or opinions are strictly my own and not that of my employer. My comments should not be interpreted as a recommendation of any kind. I am a licensed (inactive) broker and an active investor. All investors should do their own research prior to any investment, especially one learned about on the Internet. Hopefully my comments will better inform and educate all investors. tom w - - ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 10 Feb 1998 23:10:42 -0500 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] Totally non-CANSLIM (SOCR) Members, I will be the first to admit my personal bias in favor of fundamentals over technicals, that's why CANSLIM is important to me, it helps balance out that bias somewhat. But for long term investors, I must confess why I am still (stupidly) holding onto some Scan Optics shares. I have made some money trading partial positions, but still hold my original shares (at a loss). The more I read on this company the more I am impressed with the "N" (new). Altho I am concerned about their extensive Asian exposure, est for a small cap stock, I am most impressed with their technology. Their latest contract, announced yesterday, with Mitsubishi Trust, will provide a machine that can scan 10,000 stock certificates an hour, of varying sizes, and find and read the unique serial nr which may be found in four different places on each stock cert. It is easy for me to understand how this can benefit a major transfer agent such as M/T. If we've got any experts on optical scanning in the group, would appreciate any feedback on whether I am overestimating the power and significance of Scan Optics technology, not just on stock certs but on medical claims and the other stuff they apparently do better than any other company. One member did a great review of wireless technology, anyone out there that can do the same on optical scanning? Any statements or opinions are strictly my own and not that of my employer. My comments should not be interpreted as a recommendation of any kind. I am a licensed (inactive) broker and an active investor. All investors should do their own research prior to any investment, especially one learned about on the Internet. Hopefully my comments will better inform and educate all investors. tom w - - ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 10 Feb 1998 22:23:44 -0800 From: "Douglas Motsenbocker" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Software? Thanks for the advice on software from all who responded. The Traders.com site really gives a comprehensive evaluation. It was a real help. I'm checking out other suggestions also. Thanks. Doug - ---------- > From: Chris > To: canslim@lists.xmission.com > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Software? > Date: Sunday, February 08, 1998 6:25 PM > > Doug, > Try > http://traders.com/Documentation/Survey/98Survey.html > It is a review and comparison of lots of software for equites analysis > from the folks at TA of Stocks and Commodities mag. > All the best > Chris Hyde > - - ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 11 Feb 1998 11:01:17 -0700 (MST) From: Craig Hogan Subject: [CANSLIM] Intro: Craig Hogan Hi- I feel like I'm in a 12 step doing an intro, but... I am a 25 year old software engineer that is just about ready to start investing now that the debt I accumulated in college is finally going away. I've been building up my 401k but I also want to get into stock picking. I'm giving this discussion group a try because I've read most of O'Neil's book and I'd like to find out how well people are doing with it. So I'd like to start out with a question/survey. The one thing I don't like about the book is that O'Neil's logic always seems to work backwards. Maybe this is typical analysis, but there appear to be flaws. He will mention a concept and give examples of companies that skyrocketed after showing certain behavoir, but he never says how often this happens. I could write a book showing lots of companies going up after their EPS went down from the prior year- there are always exceptions. So, does it bother anyone that he never says the approximate PERCENTAGE of firms that will go up based each of his methods? That would be a lot more valueable to me. Has anyone done a study that went back and applied CANSLIM to a random mix of historic data and come back with success percentages, rather than picking out the good eggs? thanks, Craig - -- ..................................................................... [ Craig Hogan ! Cure TAB archive, live Cure recordings: ] [ chogan@primenet.com ! http://www.primenet.com/~chogan/index.html ] [ Software Engineer ! "Smear this man across the wall" ] ::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::: - - ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 11 Feb 1998 14:01:04 -0500 From: Craig Griffin Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Intro: Craig Hogan Craig, Hello and welcome. O'Neil basicly says that you should be able to pick at least 2 out of 3 that work out (give you a 20%-25% profit). Assuming you cut your loss on the 3rd one at 8% or less - you end up with a nice profit. If you only pick 1 out of 3 that works, then you more or less break even. Novice Canslimers often pick 0 out of 3 that work. Or - do not respect their 8% absolute maximum stop loss. Or do not hold the winners long enough (sell on first little pullback, etc.). CANSLIM is not easy. And it is not mechanical. But it is IMO the best way to pick one's own stocks (instead of subscribing to a service or using a mutual fund). The potential for loss is great if you do not learn the methods first. For instance, not honoring a stop loss on a stock that subsequently declines 50% or 75% can seriously damage your equity. Or - another example - some people have one amazing success (a stock that soars 30% in three weeks) and come to think they can do no wrong - and start throwing money at anything that looks vaguely like a breakout from a base of any length and quickly get stopped out of a half dozen stocks. You get the idea. Backtesting or defining the percentage of success beyond that is difficult because it is all based on ones discipline, knowledge of the priniciples, and execution. If it could be reduced to a completely mechanical system, you could just buy a newsletter or hand it to a mutual fund or program a computer, but you can't (well actually there is an email newsletter - Brookins Buys - that appears to be pretty darned good, but I have no personal experience with it - have just seen a few free sample issues - believe it costs about $700 yearly). Best to start with paper trading. Don't risk real dollars, or if you must, do it in very small quantities. At 11:01 AM 2/11/98 -0700, you wrote: >So I'd like to start out with a question/survey. The one thing I >don't like about the book is that O'Neil's logic always seems to work >backwards. Maybe this is typical analysis, but there appear to be >flaws. He will mention a concept and give examples of companies that >skyrocketed after showing certain behavoir, but he never says how >often this happens. I could write a book showing lots of companies >going up after their EPS went down from the prior year- there are >always exceptions. Indeed and there are tons of exceptions to Canslim "rules": stocks just don't work out for whatever reason all the time. The main point with Canslim is to reduce risk by applying fundamental and technical analysis along with an understanding of the market. >So, does it bother anyone that he never says the approximate >PERCENTAGE of firms that will go up based each of his methods? >That would be a lot more valueable to me. Has anyone done a study >that went back and applied CANSLIM to a random mix of historic data >and come back with success percentages, rather than picking out the >good eggs? No way to say as I mentioned above, what qualifies as a valid Canslim breakout really lies in the eyes of the beholder. It is definitely partly art and partly science. However, there are a number of us on this list who can be given a list of stocks to evaluate and will come to approximately the same conclusions about how well each fits the criteria and what the correct buy point should be. And it is the best explanation I have ever seen of "how the market works" and "what really makes a stock go up". Glad to have you as a new member on the list. Take a look through our archives to get a feel for how Canslim works for us and for many discussions of the finer points and details. Or just hang out, ask questions, follow the discussions. Best Regards, Craig (Griffin) - - ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 11 Feb 1998 12:47:04 -0700 (MST) From: Craig Hogan Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Intro: Craig Hogan Thanks for the info. There is one other thing. I can't seem to grasp the "cup and handle" concept. O'Neil shows charts that he says make this shape, but it sems to vary widely. Also, it seems like you can't predict that a stock will do a cup and handle until it has already done it and by that time it may have run its course. Can anyone describe this concept better than O'Neil? thanks again, Craig - -- ..................................................................... [ Craig Hogan ! Cure TAB archive, live Cure recordings: ] [ chogan@primenet.com ! http://www.primenet.com/~chogan/index.html ] [ Software Engineer ! "Smear this man across the wall" ] ::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::: - - ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 11 Feb 1998 17:08:05 -0500 From: Peter Newell Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Intro: Craig Hogan Craig, I've been doing this for a year and a half. I'd consider the following buying the tapes IBD sells. Getting Market Wizards buy Jack Schwager it has excerpts from David Ryan and Bill O'Neil. Paper trading, although now I would consider trading lightly. And do your own review of the best stocks from 1997 on a day by day basis. Also, I'd throw in a few that went up a right back down like 3Com, Act Manufacturing etc. So you don't kick yourself for selling. Also, a trial subscription to dailygraphs is good and using the online version is nice. Personally I use quotes plus, www.quotes-plus.com for a down load and scan for stocks breaking out of a six week base and go from there, usually this is 2-6 stocks, yesterday it was 15. Hope this helps, Peter Newell - ---------- > From: Craig Hogan > To: canslim@lists.xmission.com > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Intro: Craig Hogan > Date: Wednesday, February 11, 1998 2:47 PM > > > Thanks for the info. There is one other thing. I can't seem to grasp > the "cup and handle" concept. O'Neil shows charts that he says make > this shape, but it sems to vary widely. Also, it seems like you can't > predict that a stock will do a cup and handle until it has already > done it and by that time it may have run its course. Can anyone > describe this concept better than O'Neil? > > thanks again, > > Craig > > -- > ..................................................................... > [ Craig Hogan ! Cure TAB archive, live Cure recordings: ] > [ chogan@primenet.com ! http://www.primenet.com/~chogan/index.html ] > [ Software Engineer ! "Smear this man across the wall" ] > ::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::: > > > - - - ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 11 Feb 1998 17:40:33 -0500 From: Sam Funchess Subject: [CANSLIM] Spot If anyone is in a aggressive mood they might want to check out pan am sat corp. Has a great n and good eps and rs. Would write more on it but am very short on time. Take care Sam - - ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 11 Feb 1998 16:11:13 -0800 (PST) From: Anindo Majumdar Subject: [CANSLIM] CNCX Does CNCX qualify as a CANSLIMER or is it just part of the group move which has been lifting all ISPs ever since AOL announced a price hike. Others in the group are ELNK, MSPG. Anindo > > Well, at this point not seeing the followthru I was hoping for in Asia. Big > caps kinda ho-hum, altho techs appear to be still very strong. After such a > good day on Wall Street, including a new record closing high by the Dow 30 > and another record by the S&P500 and NASDAQ over 1700, did think we might > see a reaction overseas. May just be too early, will take a peek tomorrow > morning. > > I'm not kicking, my 401 funds did well today, and had 2 of 5 stocks I own > hit new highs, one on 4X avg vol. The one stock in my IRA is up 43% in a > month, and I am behaving real greedy. Just kicking myself for not moving on > TIER this morning at 12.25, meant selling two underperformers, which > naturally went south while TIER took off. Oh well, next time. > > Any statements or opinions are strictly my own and not that of my employer. > My comments should not be interpreted as a recommendation of any kind. I am > a licensed (inactive) broker and an active investor. All investors should do > their own research prior to any investment, especially one learned about on > the Internet. Hopefully my comments will better inform and educate all > investors. > tom w > > > - > > - - ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 11 Feb 1998 20:22:09 -0500 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Intro: Craig Hogan Hi Craig, and welcome to the group, you just passed your first step with the intro and the admission you needed to learn! CANSLIM is much more a philosophy than a science. And it probably is backward in some respects, recall that WON developed it initially by taking the stocks proven to be winners over a decade or so back in the 50s and then regressed to find those characteristics of proven winners that could have been spotted early on and used to select candidates to buy. One of those characteristics was that the rate of growth of earnings surpassed most other companies, thus EPS was developed, and is a percentile ranking. As to the theoretical "perfect" cup and handle, the idea is that when a stock has made a major leg up in price, it will eventually reach a point where it needs to consolidate those gains before moving higher. This point marks the upper edge of the left side of the cup. As buying diminishes (and it's important to remember that not all investors follow CANSLIM rules) the stock will begin to drop. There will be some who see a buying opportunity, but gradually the stock will decline about 25% of its "leg up" from the latest high, then bottom out and finally begin to form the right side of the cup. If all works well in the perfect scenario, it will eventually form the handle in the vicinity of its prior high and base out there for 6-8 weeks. Finally, on at least 150% of ADV, it will break out and commence another leg up. Had you spotted this pattern forming, you could put the stock on your personal "watch" list and monitor it. As the handle forms, if you were aggressive you might buy early and not wait for the breakout, gambling that it will in fact break out to the upside. Or you could use a buy stop or buy stop limit, however this would not give you a volume based trigger, simply a price trigger. Or if you could watch it closely enough, just wait for the volume and price then buy it if it's going up. In other words, the c&h gives you a forecast of a possible future action and allows you to anticipate it and be ready, meanwhile keeping your cash busy doing something else or just earning interest without risk. As to having "already run its course" the idea is that the c&h marks the beginning of another leg up, not the rally off the bottom of the cup to the handle. There are investors that trade this part, usually called bottom fishers, and money can be made there as well, but it's not CANSLIM. One of the functions of the "handle" is to permit these investors to take their profits and get out of the way before the next leg starts. Any statements or opinions are strictly my own and not that of my employer. My comments should not be interpreted as a recommendation of any kind. I am a licensed (inactive) broker and an active investor. All investors should do their own research prior to any investment, especially one learned about on the Internet. Hopefully my comments will better inform and educate all investors. tom w - -----Original Message----- From: Craig Hogan To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Date: Wednesday, February 11, 1998 2:45 PM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Intro: Craig Hogan > >Thanks for the info. There is one other thing. I can't seem to grasp >the "cup and handle" concept. O'Neil shows charts that he says make >this shape, but it sems to vary widely. Also, it seems like you can't >predict that a stock will do a cup and handle until it has already >done it and by that time it may have run its course. Can anyone >describe this concept better than O'Neil? > >thanks again, > >Craig > >-- > ..................................................................... >[ Craig Hogan ! Cure TAB archive, live Cure recordings: ] >[ chogan@primenet.com ! http://www.primenet.com/~chogan/index.html ] >[ Software Engineer ! "Smear this man across the wall" ] > ::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::: > > >- > - - ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 11 Feb 1998 20:41:10 -0500 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] CNCX Shows a pretty impressive move for a stock with an RS of 64, an EPS of 38, and a loss for the past year of $5.43 a share (about 12% of their revenues, which are increasing). I would guess at a sympathy move, certainly fundamentals and technicals don't appear to justify it just yet. Contrast this move with the chart on Mindspring (MSPG) which is just turning profitable, or Ozemail (OZEMY) which is profitable but not growing as rapidly. Any statements or opinions are strictly my own and not that of my employer. My comments should not be interpreted as a recommendation of any kind. I am a licensed (inactive) broker and an active investor. All investors should do their own research prior to any investment, especially one learned about on the Internet. Hopefully my comments will better inform and educate all investors. tom w - -----Original Message----- From: Anindo Majumdar To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Date: Wednesday, February 11, 1998 7:10 PM Subject: [CANSLIM] CNCX > Does CNCX qualify as a CANSLIMER or is it just part of the group move >which has been lifting all ISPs ever since AOL announced a price hike. >Others in the group are ELNK, MSPG. > >Anindo >> >> Well, at this point not seeing the followthru I was hoping for in Asia. Big >> caps kinda ho-hum, altho techs appear to be still very strong. After such a >> good day on Wall Street, including a new record closing high by the Dow 30 >> and another record by the S&P500 and NASDAQ over 1700, did think we might >> see a reaction overseas. May just be too early, will take a peek tomorrow >> morning. >> >> I'm not kicking, my 401 funds did well today, and had 2 of 5 stocks I own >> hit new highs, one on 4X avg vol. The one stock in my IRA is up 43% in a >> month, and I am behaving real greedy. Just kicking myself for not moving on >> TIER this morning at 12.25, meant selling two underperformers, which >> naturally went south while TIER took off. Oh well, next time. >> >> Any statements or opinions are strictly my own and not that of my employer. >> My comments should not be interpreted as a recommendation of any kind. I am >> a licensed (inactive) broker and an active investor. All investors should do >> their own research prior to any investment, especially one learned about on >> the Internet. Hopefully my comments will better inform and educate all >> investors. >> tom w >> >> >> - >> >> > > >- > - - ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 11 Feb 1998 21:20:32 -0500 From: averil@legendcomm.com (Averil Strauss) Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] CNCX Actually if you want an impressive move, look at ELNK. They are being bought by Sprint and were up 8 1/8 on the day. Wish I had bought in when I noticed. Averil Strauss averil@legendcomm.com 800-668-7077 - - ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 11 Feb 1998 21:03:38 -0500 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] Short Term "M" The bond mkt had a nice rally today, driven largely by interest from Europe which caught US traders by surprise who had hedged in the face of the qtrly 10 year note auction today by shorting, and were squeezed out adding to the buy side support. Bond mkt ended up 1 and two ticks with a yield of 5.85%, down seven basis points. Thus both the T bills and notes auctions have gone better than expected, and historically one of the three won't do well, so that leaves the 30 year bond auction tomorrow in confusion. Traders reportedly did not hedge with shorting, as they are uncertain of the outcome. The action in the bond mkt today, tho, may have taken some of the steam out of the stock mkt. I am reading both NASDAQ and NYSE as substantially overbought right now, and ready for some consolidation. We've seen some profit taking on the big caps, including today, along with a lot of talk of how the small caps are ready to flourish. I just hope some of that money flows that way, I was already fooled once by a small cap rally and leadership, stopped in its tracks by Asia. However, I am seeing some encouraging signs in the Russell 2000, and my own small cap portfolio (two of five hit new highs again today, one is up 53% since I bot it a month ago, the other up over 9% in about 2 weeks). We went into this earnings reporting cycle with a high degree of concern over the Asian flu impact on earnings. Thus far, most of the major cos have reported, and even IFMX managed to pull off positive earnings surprises (up a point in aftermarket). There were some negative ones, but overall we remained positive on balance, altho not as well as in past qtrs. But because of high bearish sentiment, the positives have been exaggerated in effect. I am still fully invested, but may start pulling back to a cash position over the next several weeks unless I see continued strength in small caps. If I were in big caps, I would be even more aggressive with tight stops, and few if any fresh buys. I do not see the same quality in up/down volume or new highs/lows as we were seeing six months ago, so the correction if it happens will likely have less resistance, happen faster, and possibly be more severe now that we are essentially thru the earnings cycle and there is no news pending to support the mkt moving higher. Of course, the swing in sentiment from bearish back to bullish may succeed in offsetting this, but no predictions from me on this. There are still some major minefields out there to circumnavigate, the most visible of which are Iraq, Slick Willie's Dategate, and potential financial problems in Latin America. Nor am I convinced we have heard the last from Asia. There are indications that Q1, and possibly Q2, will be more severely impacted than was Q4, so bearish sentiment could again rise up, along with earnings projections being cut by analysts. Any statements or opinions are strictly my own and not that of my employer. My comments should not be interpreted as a recommendation of any kind. I am a licensed (inactive) broker and an active investor. All investors should do their own research prior to any investment, especially one learned about on the Internet. Hopefully my comments will better inform and educate all investors. tom w - - ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 11 Feb 1998 21:26:21 -0500 From: averil@legendcomm.com (Averil Strauss) Subject: [CANSLIM] CTI What is the opinion on CTI? Up today on over double average volume. Yesterday consolidated, was up the day before. Averil Strauss averil@legendcomm.com 800-668-7077 - - ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 11 Feb 1998 21:09:39 -0500 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] ELNK (was CNCX) Looks like it started moving up on heavy vol on either rumors or news leaks. Wonder how long it will take the SEC or NASDAQ to start investigating who were the buyers and why? Any statements or opinions are strictly my own and not that of my employer. My comments should not be interpreted as a recommendation of any kind. I am a licensed (inactive) broker and an active investor. All investors should do their own research prior to any investment, especially one learned about on the Internet. Hopefully my comments will better inform and educate all investors. tom w - -----Original Message----- From: Averil Strauss To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Date: Wednesday, February 11, 1998 8:59 PM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] CNCX >Actually if you want an impressive move, look at ELNK. They are being bought >by Sprint and were up 8 1/8 on the day. Wish I had bought in when I >noticed. > >Averil Strauss >averil@legendcomm.com >800-668-7077 > > > >- > - - ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 11 Feb 1998 21:19:20 -0500 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] CTI RS 80, EPS 68, no base, GRS 38, very extended, u/d 0.8, #5 in its group, and at a trailing PE of 16 at high end of its historic PE range. Would consider it strictly as a momentum play, not CANSLIM. Any statements or opinions are strictly my own and not that of my employer. My comments should not be interpreted as a recommendation of any kind. I am a licensed (inactive) broker and an active investor. All investors should do their own research prior to any investment, especially one learned about on the Internet. Hopefully my comments will better inform and educate all investors. tom w - -----Original Message----- From: Averil Strauss To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Date: Wednesday, February 11, 1998 9:05 PM Subject: [CANSLIM] CTI >What is the opinion on CTI? Up today on over double average volume. >Yesterday consolidated, was up the day before. > >Averil Strauss >averil@legendcomm.com >800-668-7077 > > > >- > - - ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 11 Feb 1998 21:48:31 -0500 From: averil@legendcomm.com (Averil Strauss) Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] ELNK The news was on Yahoo early. Averil Strauss averil@legendcomm.com 800-668-7077 - -----Original Message----- From: Tom Worley To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Date: Wednesday, February 11, 1998 8:40 PM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] ELNK (was CNCX) >Looks like it started moving up on heavy vol on either rumors or news leaks. >Wonder how long it will take the SEC or NASDAQ to start investigating who >were the buyers and why? > >Any statements or opinions are strictly my own and not that of my employer. >My comments should not be interpreted as a recommendation of any kind. I am >a licensed (inactive) broker and an active investor. All investors should do >their own research prior to any investment, especially one learned about on >the Internet. Hopefully my comments will better inform and educate all >investors. >tom w >-----Original Message----- >From: Averil Strauss >To: canslim@lists.xmission.com >Date: Wednesday, February 11, 1998 8:59 PM >Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] CNCX > > >>Actually if you want an impressive move, look at ELNK. They are being >bought >>by Sprint and were up 8 1/8 on the day. Wish I had bought in when I >>noticed. >> >>Averil Strauss >>averil@legendcomm.com >>800-668-7077 >> >> >> >>- >> > > >- > - - ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 12 Feb 1998 03:28:52 GMT From: musicant@autobahn.org (Dan Musicant) Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Intro: Craig Hogan On Wed, 11 Feb 1998 11:01:17 -0700 (MST), you wrote: :Hi- : :I feel like I'm in a 12 step doing an intro, but... I am a 25 year :old software engineer that is just about ready to start investing now :that the debt I accumulated in college is finally going away. I've :been building up my 401k but I also want to get into stock picking. :I'm giving this discussion group a try because I've read most of=20 :O'Neil's book and I'd like to find out how well people are doing with=20 :it. : :So I'd like to start out with a question/survey. The one thing I :don't like about the book is that O'Neil's logic always seems to work :backwards. Maybe this is typical analysis, but there appear to be :flaws. He will mention a concept and give examples of companies that :skyrocketed after showing certain behavoir, but he never says how :often this happens. I could write a book showing lots of companies :going up after their EPS went down from the prior year- there are :always exceptions. =20 :So, does it bother anyone that he never says the approximate :PERCENTAGE of firms that will go up based each of his methods? :That would be a lot more valueable to me. Has anyone done a study :that went back and applied CANSLIM to a random mix of historic data :and come back with success percentages, rather than picking out the :good eggs? : :thanks, :Craig : :--=20 : ..................................................................... :[ Craig Hogan ! Cure TAB archive, live Cure recordings: ] :[ chogan@primenet.com ! http://www.primenet.com/~chogan/index.html ] :[ Software Engineer ! "Smear this man across the wall" ] : ::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::: Hi Craig, I think your feeling about the book is shared by many. I understand your feeling about the backwards approach of O'Neill, and thanks for objectifying this. Like they say, "hindsight is 20-20", and WON's analysis of the winingest stocks of the previous 4 or 5 decades does beg for a scientific or statistical analysis to get a handle on how effective the methods are and just how one could apply them with a reasonable sense of certainty. I have seen virtually the same question asked before right here on the CANSLIM board (if I can call it that). That is, I saw posts discussing the feasibility of objective statistical analysis of CANSLIM stock picking techniques. I seem to recall a few months ago a person who rather rudely asserted that CANSLIM would not measure up to his or other criteria. With brash bravado he challenged members of this board to a contest. However, I believe I recall other more considered discussions of this sort here. I also remember a suggestion made here concerning possible significant effects resulting from a fair proportion of the investing community using the techniques. Obviously, if a lot of people are looking for the same criteria, things are going to get strange, no? But of course, everyone who adheres to CANSLIM criteria does it differently, as has been noted. And this would partly be due to the unscientific nature of it. Perhaps, the easier course is Connie Mack's: an extreme dependency on technical analysis can free you from the burden of subjective analysis. Connie doesn't even bother to check for news or even the nature of a company's business, figuring that the significance of these things are already reflected in his technical indicators. What's the bit about the website? Is that your webpage? Are you a musician? A Cure Fan? I can't hear the songs...am I supposed to? Dan - - ------------------------------ End of canslim-digest V2 #114 ***************************** To unsubscribe to canslim-digest, send an email to "majordomo@xmission.com" with "unsubscribe canslim-digest" in the body of the message. For information on digests or retrieving files and old messages send "help" to the same address. Do not use quotes in your message.