From: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com (canslim-digest) To: canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Subject: canslim-digest V2 #118 Reply-To: canslim Sender: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Errors-To: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Precedence: bulk canslim-digest Monday, February 16 1998 Volume 02 : Number 118 In this issue: [CANSLIM] Options [CANSLIM] Changing your canslim subscription Re: [CANSLIM] When do you sell a stock Re: [CANSLIM] Options Re: [CANSLIM] When do you sell a stock Re: [CANSLIM] When do you sell a stock Re: [CANSLIM] When do you sell a stock Re: [CANSLIM] Breakouts - GX & HCFP Re: [CANSLIM] various Re: [CANSLIM] various Re: [CANSLIM] various Re: [CANSLIM] various RE: [CANSLIM] SE Re: [CANSLIM] SE [CANSLIM] Re: Daily Graphs Online Re: [CANSLIM] Breakouts: GART, BBRC, GLE Re: [CANSLIM] GSMS Re: [CANSLIM] Breakouts - GX & HCFP Re: [CANSLIM] When do you sell a stock [CANSLIM] Fw: Mitel Corp (MLT) Re: [CANSLIM] airline group (was various) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Date: Sun, 15 Feb 1998 09:42:11 -0500 From: Jeffry White <"postwhit@sover.net"@sover.net> Subject: [CANSLIM] Options > Date: Sun, 15 Feb 1998 08:23:39 -0500 > From: "Tom Worley" > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Options > I had one broker in the office (since terminated with extreme prejudice) who > more recently used in the money long calls on CS type stocks. Did well so > long as he was willing to cut the loss on the ones not working out. It's > easy to be down 50% real fast, and you have to be tough in accepting that > and taking the loss and salvaging what's left. Too often he would gamble on > what was left and it would end up expiring worthless for a 100% loss. Cutting the loss when they are not working is key. However, we should make clear that even though being down 50% is easy, that is still likely less than being stopped out on an 8% stop loss order, if you buy the Calls right. And if purchased correctly, the total risk is around 15% loss on the actual stock position from point of entry. For example, when WFMI was down around 48 recently, I bought June 45's at 6 1/4. The 50 day was around 45. Entering the stock at 48 would require a stop placement around 44 or so. If the stock got in trouble in a big way after entry, your fill may be a little lower, but your risk is around 4 points. With the June 45's, the risk is finite at 6 1/4, however, and if the stock tanks, you can still salvage some of that with the time premium (which is why I do not buy unless I can buy at least 4 months out). 50% down on those Calls would be less than an 8% stop. Also, if it tanks, you can hold on for a bounce, a foolish game with a stock position. The maximum risk in options stays the same. ALWAYS. The real problem for me, as I mentioned before, is the "greed bug". Lots and lots of leverage, and with only $625 as the cost to play WFMI with a one lot (as opposed to cash or margin exposure of $4800), the exposure to significant loss increases. So far, I have successfully kept my option activity to 25% of my account, which, according to WON, is too much. However, when the "M" is right, I feel a little more confident. I can easily see the temptation to trade nothing but options, and I hope to keep that temptation at bay. The WFMI position worked out, and my 6 1/4 options were liquidated late this week at 15 5/8 for a two week gain of a bit less than 150%. The greed element becomes obvious if you imagine the return if I'd put on an 8 lot (the cash equivalent of 100 shares of WFMI)!!! As it stands, a 2 lot was enough for me. My account would not have allowed me to play WFMI very easily and maintain 5 or 6 open positions as I like to do. Other drawbacks are increased commissions, liquidity and ridiculous percentage spreads. BTW, your comment on the "M" favorability to CANSLIM stocks surprises me. There has been no "distribution" in the indices which would indicate a top, in my opinion. Although we had a distribution day a while back, it was not the type I usually associate with "topping" action, just backing and filling. Are you relying on HTTMIS/WON criteria here, or something independent of that? Jeffry - - ------------------------------ Date: Sun, 15 Feb 1998 08:00:04 -0700 From: jeff@scrooge.csd.sdl.usu.edu (Jeff Salisbury) Subject: [CANSLIM] Changing your canslim subscription This is a monthly posting to the CANLSLIM group. Frequently, people sign up for the canslim list and then are overwhelmed by the volume of the email. There are two remedies for this problem: 1) You can leave our group, or 2) you can switch to the digest version which "conglomerates" many canslim messages into one large message. To change your configuration, email a message to: majordomo@xmission.com The remove yourself from the canslim list, write in the body of the email: unsubscribe canslim To add yourself to the digest version of the canslim list, write in the body of the email: subscribe canslim-digest For general help with majordomo commands, write in the body of the email: help If you need further clarification, write me directly at: canslim-owner@xmission.com Best Regards, Jeff Salisbury - CANSLIM list admin / owner - - ------------------------------ Date: Sun, 15 Feb 1998 10:19:15 -0500 From: Peter Newell Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] When do you sell a stock Carol, IBD has some tapes that discuss this a lot more. Personally I have b= een selling fast when the market has corrected, Aug and Oct, and it saved= me a bundle one stock Cellstar just plunged(50%), I sold it for +30%, and = it has great fundamentals went from almost a nothing to billion dollar co in 6 yrs= good earnings etc. The only bad sell was Dell but I'll take 90% in 2 mont= hs anyday. Everything, and I mean everything broke bad, I made the mista= ke of holding GLM due to hype lack of attention and I lost my 20% profit an= d then some. I think you have to find your own style. And my debate is whi= ch is more profitable buying a breaking stock and selling it with 20-90% profit or waiting = it out while others go up. Or some combination. At the beginning of a bull market after a recession holding longer probably pays better. The ta= pes say a stock runs 12-18mo, this fits dell then can die or hold. WON s= ays selling with a 20% profit is simple maybe thats a good way to start. =20 Best I can tell the initial market turn usually contains the market l= eaders for the first 13 weeks then they rotate out. I remember last April w= hen AEIS, RON, COO, MAVK started showing up on my screens and I was who a= re these guys, most of these stocks doubled. =20 I'd like to hear how the rest of the group deals with selling. Peter Newell - ---------- =46rom: David S. Pinhasik To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] When do you sell a stock Date: Sunday, February 15, 1998 5:26 AM Hi Carol, I am no expert, but WON has a very important chapter on sel= ling in HTMMIS. In short, sell after you have made 20% (don't be greedy) unle= ss the stock has gone the 20% in less than 8 weeks in which case hold on to = it for the full 8 weeks. He has several other suggestions, so it's a good id= ea to study that chapter. David - -----Original Message----- =46rom: carolreynolds@juno.com To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Date: =F9=E1=FA 14 =F4=E1=F8=E5=E0=F8 1998 16:48 Subject: [CANSLIM] When do you sell a stock >After you have bought a good stock and it has run up some, When do y= ou >sell. Decreased volume? > >Carol > >____________________________________________________________________= _ >You don't need to buy Internet access to use free Internet e-mail. >Get completely free e-mail from Juno at http://www.juno.com >Or call Juno at (800) 654-JUNO [654-5866] > > >- > > - - - ---------- - - ------------------------------ Date: Sun, 15 Feb 1998 10:42:31 -0500 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Options My reference was to the VIX (volatility) index dropping finally down to the 20 level. Mike Langston has posted on this one several times, and I agree with him that as the volatility decreases, CANSLIM stocks generally seem to behave better and more predictably. Any statements or opinions are strictly my own and not that of my employer. My comments should not be interpreted as a recommendation of any kind. I am a licensed (inactive) broker and an active investor. All investors should do their own research prior to any investment, especially one learned about on the Internet. Hopefully my comments will better inform and educate all investors. tom w - -----Original Message----- From: Jeffry White <"postwhit@sover.net"@sover.net> To: canslim@mail.xmission.com Date: Sunday, February 15, 1998 9:40 AM Subject: [CANSLIM] Options >> Date: Sun, 15 Feb 1998 08:23:39 -0500 >> From: "Tom Worley" >> Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Options > >> I had one broker in the office (since terminated with extreme prejudice) who >> more recently used in the money long calls on CS type stocks. Did well so >> long as he was willing to cut the loss on the ones not working out. It's >> easy to be down 50% real fast, and you have to be tough in accepting that >> and taking the loss and salvaging what's left. Too often he would gamble on >> what was left and it would end up expiring worthless for a 100% loss. > >Cutting the loss when they are not working is key. However, we should >make clear that even though being down 50% is easy, that is still likely >less than being stopped out on an 8% stop loss order, if you buy the >Calls right. And if purchased correctly, the total risk is around 15% >loss on the actual stock position from point of entry. > >For example, when WFMI was down around 48 recently, I bought June 45's >at 6 1/4. The 50 day was around 45. Entering the stock at 48 would >require a stop placement around 44 or so. If the stock got in trouble >in a big way after entry, your fill may be a little lower, but your risk >is around 4 points. With the June 45's, the risk is finite at 6 1/4, >however, and if the stock tanks, you can still salvage some of that with >the time premium (which is why I do not buy unless I can buy at least 4 >months out). 50% down on those Calls would be less than an 8% stop. >Also, if it tanks, you can hold on for a bounce, a foolish game with a >stock position. The maximum risk in options stays the same. ALWAYS. > >The real problem for me, as I mentioned before, is the "greed bug". >Lots and lots of leverage, and with only $625 as the cost to play WFMI >with a one lot (as opposed to cash or margin exposure of $4800), the >exposure to significant loss increases. So far, I have successfully >kept my option activity to 25% of my account, which, according to WON, >is too much. However, when the "M" is right, I feel a little more >confident. I can easily see the temptation to trade nothing but >options, and I hope to keep that temptation at bay. > >The WFMI position worked out, and my 6 1/4 options were liquidated late >this week at 15 5/8 for a two week gain of a bit less than 150%. The >greed element becomes obvious if you imagine the return if I'd put on an >8 lot (the cash equivalent of 100 shares of WFMI)!!! As it stands, a 2 >lot was enough for me. My account would not have allowed me to play >WFMI very easily and maintain 5 or 6 open positions as I like to do. > >Other drawbacks are increased commissions, liquidity and ridiculous >percentage spreads. > >BTW, your comment on the "M" favorability to CANSLIM stocks surprises >me. There has been no "distribution" in the indices which would >indicate a top, in my opinion. Although we had a distribution day a >while back, it was not the type I usually associate with "topping" >action, just backing and filling. Are you relying on HTTMIS/WON >criteria here, or something independent of that? > >Jeffry > >- > - - ------------------------------ Date: Sun, 15 Feb 1998 11:06:19 -0500 (EST) From: Deepak Kapur Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] When do you sell a stock Peter, >earnings etc. The only bad sell was Dell but I'll take 90% in 2 months >anyday. Everything, and I mean everything broke bad, I made the mistake of Congratulations for making such good calls. >I'd like to hear how the rest of the group deals with selling. Yes, I would like to hear too, as I believe most of my mistakes have been in selling. I had BBY which I sold when it hit near 30 after pocketing 20% profit, but then it keeps on soaring. The same with KEA; I sold it when it hit 35 or so on Jan. 9. However, the losers (which at some point had made money for me) are still with me, such as SOCR, MSON, and others. I think I have learned a lot from this group, but one thing that has baffled me is when to sell. Regards, Deepak - - ------------------------------ Date: Sun, 15 Feb 1998 08:52:27 -0700 From: Tim Fisher Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] When do you sell a stock At 10:19 AM 2/15/98 -0500, you wrote: >I'd like to hear how the rest of the group deals with selling. > >Peter Newell > Not very well! IMHO it's the toughest part of trading. For me, selling makes picking stocks and buying decisions look easy. I held on to a 15-20% trailing stop from close-of-trading highs early on; it burned me when the market turned down. After that I used Vectorvest stops; worked for a while but they were easily as loose and sometimes looser than 20% trailing stops. I am still trying to refine my stops to be able to hold on to winners through corrections and dump losers before they tank. So far I think my system is no better than random. I.e. half the stocks I get stopped out on go up significantly after I'm out; the other half tank or go into a holding pattern. My system right now is to set the stop using VectorVest after I buy, unless the VV stop is more than 15% off the high; then I got with a 15% trailing stop. I have simulated 8% stops and I firmly believe that I cannot pick these breakouts with anything approaching perfection and so would have been stopped out of virtually everything I have bought the past few months. About the only thing that would get me would be nice Xmas cards from my brokers ;( After I am up 30% I am trying to protect 20% profits by setting the stop there; however if the VV stop is significantly below that point I am sticking with the 15% trailing stop since the technical analysis they use seems to make sense. On a few winners that past couple of weeks I have been protecting 2 levels of profit by setting two stops to sell half at, e.g., 25% and 35% profit. The higher stop is tight; about 10%. I don't know how this will work out since it has yet to be tested; certainly it would have worked with some of the financials which turned sharply down before hitting new highs early this month. I still can't fathom how to handle something like MSFT which I got stopped out of with a small profit on the exact bottom tick of the bottom day of its chart last month. That was a VectorVest stop and it seemed that they got it _almost_ exactly right. Of course since I was stopped out so it was the wrong stop for me. Oh yeah and I will not ever lower a stop again; if I change them I raise them. Tim Fisher, 1995 President, Pacific Fishery Biologists Ore-ROCK-On Rockhounding Web Site PFB Information tfish@spiritone.com WWW http://www.spiritone.com/~tfish -- See naked fish and rocks! - - ------------------------------ Date: Sun, 15 Feb 1998 13:02:21 -0500 (EST) From: Zoran Mitrovski Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] When do you sell a stock I have never used fixed percentage thresholds (such as 8% stop-loss or 20% limit-profit). I let price and volume movement tell me WHEN and HOW MUCH I will sell . I am rarely 100% convinced that I should buy or sell an asset at a given time, so I plan the sizes of each sell and buy position to be proportional to the level of my conviction that THAT is the right thing to do. Stocks are good in that respect because, for instance, you cannot sell half of your car now and leave the second half for sale six weeks later -- same thing with your house or your computer. With stocks you CAN play with buy and sell position sizes to maximize reward and comfort, and to minimize risk. Whenever faced with a dilemma whether to sell a stock or not, I ask myself the following questions: 1. How much pain will I experience if I didn't sell now and the stock went down from here following that? 2. How much pain will I experience if I sold now and the stock went up from here following that? 3. How probable is an up move from here? Same for a down move. I use fuzzy logic to calculate ball park values for the above parameters by zooming down the 3yr, 2yr, 1yr, 6month, 1month, 5day(intraday), 1 day(intraday) charts, and looking for precedents or patterns of price/volume behavior in terms of obeying support-resistance levels, obeying important moving averages, action following previous breakouts, types of previous pull-backs, etc. For me THIS is the fun part of investing and/or trading and so far it appears to be profitable as well. Every stock builds a unique structure together with the thousands of pairs of eyes watching it -- each of these pairs of eyes hooked to original brains each with their own levels of fear, greed, and comfort -- each of these brains controlling their pockets of varying depths that excert varying buying/selling powers on the price movement. Trying to figure out this unique structure for each stock and act accordingly, to me, is the right - -- and the most comfortable -- way to go. I simply cannot let a set of universal, and yet rigid, buy/sell rules override my custom-derived decision for a particular decision. I hope I made sense in what I said above. I feel as if I could have explained things better than I did. Zoran - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 16 Feb 1998 01:27:44 +0700 From: Peter Christiansen Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Breakouts - GX & HCFP I said I didn't care what the REASON was for the failure. I think you misunderstood my original message. I stated that SUT was breaking out, not that it would break out in the future. When it broke above resistance at $31.20 on 11/20 (on huge volume), I considered it a valid breakout. As I recall, I took a small position in SUT on 11/20, but sold out two days later - when the it pulled back into the base. > Thanks for the reply to my inquiry about SUT's predicted breakout. I > don't really care whether you care if the breakout is failing or not. I > am trying to learn what led you, or what might lead me or anyone to > expect a breakout. What was it that you saw that led you to believe > that SUT was breaking out three months ago, when you made that post? > What criteria should I look for, to indicate a breakout is probable, and > when should I conclude that the expected breakout has not, and probably > will not materialize? - -- Peter Christiansen Chiang Mai, Thailand - - ------------------------------ Date: Sun, 15 Feb 1998 15:12:41 EST From: CA011667@aol.com Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] various To Tom W. I rarely post to the group, however I do read most posts. I find you have excellent insight and well educated opinions of the markets. That being said, I was wondering what your analysis of the airline group is taking in to account the apparent technical reverse several of the leaders suffered in Fridays trading. I own Comair and Southwest on thier recent breakouts in the 26.00 area. In short, do you think this is a temporary pull back or the start of an intermidiate term correction. If it is the latter, this does not bode well for DJIA if you are a Dow theorist. Thanks in advance for your reply and God bless. Chris. - - ------------------------------ Date: 16 Feb 98 10:04:04 From: Dean Edwards Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] various Just to add my perspective. There was an interesting article in the paper this morning regarding international air travel. Both Quantas and Air NZ - Australia and New Zealand have cut back or cancelling their international flights to Asia. There has been large reversal in air travel and Quantas has announced they will expect to lose Aus $20 million. I was very bullish on the US airline group especially with some of the brokerage upgrades but not now. If the US international airlines start announcing bearish news such as a slow down in Aaia earnings, it should wash over to the entire group including the hotel industry. This has happened to me before. Just as I was about to enter the oil group, the whole industry took a nose dive. My advice watch the leaders closely! - ---------------------- Forwarded by Dean Edwards on 16/02/98 09:47 - --------------------------- CA011667@aol.com on 16/02/98 08:12:41 To: canslim@lists.xmission.com @ INTERNET cc: (bcc: Dean Edwards) Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] various To Tom W. I rarely post to the group, however I do read most posts. I find you have excellent insight and well educated opinions of the markets. That being said, I was wondering what your analysis of the airline group is taking in to account the apparent technical reverse several of the leaders suffered in Fridays trading. I own Comair and Southwest on thier recent breakouts in the 26.00 area. In short, do you think this is a temporary pull back or the start of an intermidiate term correction. If it is the latter, this does not bode well for DJIA if you are a Dow theorist. Thanks in advance for your reply and God bless. Chris. - - - - ------------------------------ Date: Sun, 15 Feb 1998 16:44:14 -0500 (EST) From: Deepak Kapur Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] various Dean, I have the impression that Quantas and Air NZ depend a lot on Asia for their revenues and profits, whereas for US carriers, that may not be true. I have the same question as Chris, but it may be too early to tell whether we have a reversal, especially when many airlines including US Air, SouthWest and perhaps other regionals made new highs in the past week. Just like Chris, I also noticed a major reversal on Friday afternoon when Delta, and Amerian went into negative territory having been up strongly in the morning. Deepak - - ------------------------------ Date: Sun, 15 Feb 1998 14:06:34 -0800 (PST) From: Chip Anderson Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] various Great discussion! My prediction is that the airlines will continue up as long as oil prices continue down. Asia's supposedly had a big drop in demand for oil which is depressing prices. So a related question is what will US action in Iraq do to oil prices? Iraq's not exporting so it shouldn't affect supply/demand equations, but the psychological effect can't be good. If the crisis gets defused, will oil prices continue down? If so, will airlines continue up? If you haven't been following things closely recently, check out the S&P Energy and Transportation sector charts on my site and then, as they say, "now is the time to place your bets!" Chip http://coolhistory.com/ChipsCharts - ---Dean Edwards wrote: > > Just to add my perspective. > There was an interesting article in the paper this morning regarding > international air travel. Both Quantas and Air NZ - Australia and New Zealand > have cut back or cancelling their international flights to Asia. There has been > large reversal in air travel and Quantas has announced they will expect to lose > Aus $20 million. > I was very bullish on the US airline group especially with some of the > brokerage upgrades but not now. If the US international airlines start > announcing bearish news such as a slow down in Aaia earnings, it should wash > over to the entire group including the hotel industry. > This has happened to me before. Just as I was about to enter the oil group, > the whole industry took a nose dive. My advice watch the leaders closely! > > ---------------------- Forwarded by Dean Edwards on 16/02/98 09:47 > --------------------------- > > > CA011667@aol.com on 16/02/98 08:12:41 > To: canslim@lists.xmission.com @ INTERNET > cc: (bcc: Dean Edwards) > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] various > > To Tom W. > > I rarely post to the group, however I do read most posts. I find you have > excellent insight and well educated opinions of the markets. That being said, > I was wondering what your analysis of the airline group is taking in to > account the apparent technical reverse several of the leaders suffered in > Fridays trading. I own Comair and Southwest on thier recent breakouts in the > 26.00 area. In short, do you think this is a temporary pull back or the start > of an intermidiate term correction. If it is the latter, this does not bode > well for DJIA if you are a Dow theorist. Thanks in advance for your reply and > God bless. Chris. > > - > > > > > - > > _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - - ------------------------------ Date: Sun, 15 Feb 1998 16:15:57 -0800 From: Mike Lucero Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] SE It's only about 4% above July 16's closing high of 39.625. Don't you find that some of these bigger patterns often have lower RS? Would you expect a bigger pattern to have less potential than an 8-12 week pattern? For some reason, I thought a bigger pattern would be more powerful. Thanks, Mike On Sunday, February 15, 1998 5:55 AM, Tom Worley [SMTP:stkguru@netside.net] wrote: > RS of 74 would keep this off my watch list even more than the extended > condition. > > Any statements or opinions are strictly my own and not that of my employer. > My comments should not be interpreted as a recommendation of any kind. I am > a licensed (inactive) broker and an active investor. All investors should do > their own research prior to any investment, especially one learned about on > the Internet. Hopefully my comments will better inform and educate all > investors. > tom w > -----Original Message----- > From: Komkit Tukovinit > To: 'canslim@lists.xmission.com' > Date: Saturday, February 14, 1998 5:43 PM > Subject: [CANSLIM] SE > > > >This stock seems to be in the third day of its break out, which may make > >it too extended. > > > >kom > > > > > >- > > > > > > - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 16 Feb 1998 00:34:26 GMT From: musicant@autobahn.org (Dan Musicant) Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] SE On Sun, 15 Feb 1998 16:15:57 -0800, you wrote: :It's only about 4% above July 16's closing high of 39.625. : :Don't you find that some of these bigger patterns often have lower RS?=20 :Would you expect a bigger pattern to have less potential than an 8-12 = week=20 :pattern? For some reason, I thought a bigger pattern would be more=20 :powerful. : :Thanks, : :Mike I think this is an interesting pattern. It is a long base if you consider it as starting in July when it downtrended from its high of about 40. Every time it has approached this (Oct., Nov., Dec., and at New Year's), it has bounced off this like a ball off a ceiling. This time, however, it appears to have pierced through this resistance, and may well not look back (well, perhaps for a moment :) ). It's one way of looking at this -- a sort of psychological anayisis if you will. Dan :> Subject: [CANSLIM] SE :> :> :> >This stock seems to be in the third day of its break out, which may = make :> >it too extended. :> > :> >kom - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 16 Feb 1998 00:39:09 GMT From: musicant@autobahn.org (Dan Musicant) Subject: [CANSLIM] Re: Daily Graphs Online It it just my flaking system, or is DGO crashing today when you try to check out the market indexes or the Reports (or whatever the right-most button is)? I think I'm about to have a major HD failure (my File Allocation Tables on my partitions are getting scrambled), so there's a good chance the problem's just on my end.=20 Dan - - ------------------------------ Date: Sun, 15 Feb 1998 17:26:24 -0800 From: "Robert Venchiarutti" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Breakouts: GART, BBRC, GLE I'd been following GART for about two weeks, waiting for a volume spike, and bought on the 11th at 38. I tend to agree with Zoran and Patrick on interpretation of the chart. My stop is at 35.5, so I guess Patrick and I read the chart similarly in terms of support level. Beware, now that I'm in, I've probably given the stock the kiss of death. As for whether the stock is a good buy now, I don't know. It's given up 2 points in two days, but I'm encouraged by the big decrease in volume on the second day. If price rises on very heavy volume, I may buy some more. Also, if volume decreases, but price stabilizes in the 38-40 range (a base on a base), I may buy some more. We'll see what happens. - -----Original Message----- From: Zoran Mitrovski To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Cc: Zoran Mitrovski Date: Saturday, February 14, 1998 9:50 PM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Breakouts: GART, BBRC, GLE > >I agree with Patrick and I like the looks of GART too. I even bought >me some on Friday. Few things to pay attention to: >1. It has been pulling back towards the top of the base on steadily >decreasing volume. >2. The cup that Patrick mentions is not really a cup but to me >is sonething even better since it is a double bottom formation >with the second bottom being higher than the first one. >3. In the handle of this big cup there is a smaller cup nested >as well. >4. A 2 year chart would show the importance of 42 as a significant >old resistance point. But if it breaks above that one, good things >can happen. > >I love buying on pull-backs because the waters are calmer, because >the decreasing volume speaks volumes, and because I am closer to >the "something's wrong" point. In GART's case, if it goes up, I >would sell half just below 42, expecting it to pull back down after >that. If the volume dries up on the pull-back again, I'll be ready >for another entry and waiting for the 42+ move. > >(I don't have the chart in front of me so I hope the above numbers >are OK) > >Zoran > > >> > Date: Sat, 14 Feb 1998 11:34:59 -0700 >> > To: >> >> > These three broke out last week. My numbers (different from IBD!) for them are: >> > EPS GRS RS >> > GART 99 94 90 >> > BBRC 94 63 51 >> > GLE 96 43 40 >> > >> >> >> I have been watching GART, I think it looks pretty good. I would >> read the chart as a breakout from a base to a new high on heavy >> volume. Looks like a person would risk about 3 1/2 points, down to >> 35 1/2. I think you can call the period from June to Feb a C&H, >> handle forming in the last few weeks. (I did see Tom's comments, >> goes to show how subjective this chart reading is, no wonder a few >> people have questions about applying Canslim accurately.) >> >> >> >> >> - >> >> > > >- > > - - ------------------------------ Date: Sun, 15 Feb 1998 21:34:43 -0600 From: Dave Cameron Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] GSMS Mike Lucero wrote: > > GSMS broke above 35 on 12/29, out of an 11 week base, on > lower-than-50-day-average volume. A couple weeks later, after hitting a > closing high of around 37, it fell back into it's old base. Today (Friday), > it broke above 35 again on higher than average volume. > I just looked at the chart; for me this is a tough one. I honestly don't like that it fell all the way back to 32 before gaining steam again. If it had broken out at 35 - stayed at 37 for a week - then fell back to 35 and stayed there, then I'd watch for another break above 35. But since it fell to 32, I'd stop watching it. Just my two cents. Dave Cameron - - ------------------------------ Date: Sun, 15 Feb 1998 22:16:15 -0600 From: Dave Cameron Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Breakouts - GX & HCFP Neil Himber wrote: > > Hi Dan: > Thanks for helping me understand what constitutes a breakout and a > failed breakout. The more I learn about this IBD CANSLIM method the > less suitable it seems to be for me. It seems to require a high degree > of technical alalysis skill, and the ability to act very quickly. I > don't have access to an online computer at work during the day, and I > travel on business about one week a month so a stock could drop past the > 8% sell point before I knew it. I subscribe to IBD, and I've watched > the videos and read HTMMIS and I've attended the seminar, but I've made > more money following the Beating the Dow method as described in Michael > O'Higgins book by the same name. CANSLIM is not for everyone; one needs the proper psychological bent to use it as your primary driver for investing. I don't agree that it requires the ability to act very quickly though. I don't have access to a computer where I can 'trade' during the day, but I've done fine. First, as long as you catch breakouts that are not TOO extended, you can usually get out quickly by placing a stop-loss order shortly after your purchase has been recorded. I've had a number of stocks where I've bought at a supposed breakout only to watch it go back into the base. Oftentimes this means it eventually retreats to the bottom of the base. So... I put a stop about 1/2 below the high of the base. This means my broker gets a lot of money (well... at $13/trade, not THAT much), but it saves big losses. Most on-line brokers worth their salt let you leave these in place for quite a while. I use www.bclnet.com Second, you can use the same logic if you are away on business. I learned this the hard way. I had a stock I bought at $27. It rocketed up to $39 within about 9 days. Using O'Neil's rule of not selling until 8 weeks, I held on. I then went on vacation for a week. When I came back, the stock was at $31. Psychologically, I couldn't sell at that point. This was also a mistake (sort of), I watched the stock go to $28; sold it; then watched as it went to $44. Had I set a stop at $35 when I went on vacation, I would have been satisfied. Sure... I missed the $44 price, but I wouldn't have sold at the local low. In short, I wouldn't give up because you can't make transactions during the day; I'd only give up if your psychology is not compatible with CANSLIM! Dave Cameron - - ------------------------------ Date: Sun, 15 Feb 1998 22:20:43 -0600 From: Dave Cameron Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] When do you sell a stock Gee... I mention Zoran's name as a "previous subscriber", and all of a sudden he comes out of the woodwork to pass on some nuggets of wisdom. It is paragraphs such as the following that demonstrate moving beyond the mechanical rules of CANSLIM while still generally retaining its guiding spirit as the foundation for investing or trading. I would encourage those of you who are uncomfortable with hard, fast rules to re-read this. Dave Cameron Zoran Mitrovski wrote: > > I have never used fixed percentage thresholds (such as 8% stop-loss or > 20% limit-profit). I let price and volume movement tell me WHEN > and HOW MUCH I will sell . I am rarely 100% convinced that I should > buy or sell an asset at a given time, so I plan the sizes of each > sell and buy position to be proportional to the level of my conviction > that THAT is the right thing to do. Stocks are good in that respect > because, for instance, you cannot sell half of your car now and > leave the second half for sale six weeks later -- same thing with > your house or your computer. With stocks you CAN play with buy and > sell position sizes to maximize reward and comfort, and to minimize > risk. > - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 16 Feb 1998 06:23:49 -0500 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] Fw: Mitel Corp (MLT) Well, at least DG's response confirms the group ID, even tho it sheds no light on why it's not in the book. Any statements or opinions are strictly my own and not that of my employer. My comments should not be interpreted as a recommendation of any kind. I am a licensed (inactive) broker and an active investor. All investors should do their own research prior to any investment, especially one learned about on the Internet. Hopefully my comments will better inform and educate all investors. tom w - -----Original Message----- From: Customer Service To: 'Tom Worley' Date: Sunday, February 15, 1998 7:22 PM Subject: RE: Mitel Corp (MLT) >MLT is in the Telecommunicatons Equip industry. Moreover, the fundamental >(datablock) is not available if a stock has not met the criteria to be in >the printed product. > >Thank you, >Daily Graphs Online > >-----Original Message----- >From: Tom Worley [SMTP:stkguru@netside.net] >Sent: Sunday, February 15, 1998 4:39 AM >To: DGOnline Customer Service >Subject: Mitel Corp (MLT) > >I'm curious why MLT does not have a data block or (presumably) is in the DG >books. Is this due to the ADV of 60,500 being relatively low for its group, >or due to its current price (11 7/8)? Also can you confirm that it is in >the >Telecom-Equip group? > >Thanks > >Any statements or opinions are strictly my own and not that of my employer. >My comments should not be interpreted as a recommendation of any kind. I am >a licensed (inactive) broker and an active investor. All investors should >do >their own research prior to any investment, especially one learned about on >the Internet. Hopefully my comments will better inform and educate all >investors. >tom w > - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 16 Feb 1998 06:56:23 -0500 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] airline group (was various) I haven't followed this group that closely in some time, altho have noted it was doing well lately, and I think a number of the majors beat earnings estimates on the latest cycle. Certainly the drop in fuel costs should continue to help the bottom line, and the strong economy and high employment should encourage travel. I also note that the "deep discount" airlines that I have watched (such as Valuejet before its merger, and Pan Am) do not seem to be attracting riders like before the Valuejet corkscrew into the Everglades, thus the majors should benefit with heavier load rates. I tend to judge the "quality" of airline business by the price wars, lately there haven't been many, which suggests to me that business remains strong. Barring a major disruption of oil supply, I also don't anticipate any sharp increases in fuel (one of their major and uncontrollable costs) for at least several more months, nor am I aware of any labor problems or upcoming contract renewals. Thus, I would consider the industry to be in good shape, has made some strong moves recently, and needs to do some consolidating. As to the two stocks you mention, I have always liked LUV (Southwest Air), their symbol says a lot about top mngmt's attitude, and they consistently rate high in consumer satisfaction ratings. I'm not familiar with Comair, so no comment there. Among my many split personalities, I am also a Dow Theorist, and am concerned there by Boeing's recent failure to lock down several important contracts. Airbus seems to be beating them, and not sure why. Even Latin America seems to be swinging to Airbus over Boeing. Thanks for the compliment, Chris, always glad to share what I've learned, or still trying to learn, like #*@($&*@%#$& selling rules, vis a vis MSON and SOCR!! Any statements or opinions are strictly my own and not that of my employer. My comments should not be interpreted as a recommendation of any kind. I am a licensed (inactive) broker and an active investor. All investors should do their own research prior to any investment, especially one learned about on the Internet. Hopefully my comments will better inform and educate all investors. tom w - -----Original Message----- From: CA011667@aol.com To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Date: Sunday, February 15, 1998 3:11 PM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] various >To Tom W. > >I rarely post to the group, however I do read most posts. I find you have >excellent insight and well educated opinions of the markets. That being said, >I was wondering what your analysis of the airline group is taking in to >account the apparent technical reverse several of the leaders suffered in >Fridays trading. I own Comair and Southwest on thier recent breakouts in the >26.00 area. In short, do you think this is a temporary pull back or the start >of an intermidiate term correction. If it is the latter, this does not bode >well for DJIA if you are a Dow theorist. Thanks in advance for your reply and >God bless. Chris. > >- > - - ------------------------------ End of canslim-digest V2 #118 ***************************** To unsubscribe to canslim-digest, send an email to "majordomo@xmission.com" with "unsubscribe canslim-digest" in the body of the message. For information on digests or retrieving files and old messages send "help" to the same address. Do not use quotes in your message.