From: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com (canslim-digest) To: canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Subject: canslim-digest V2 #119 Reply-To: canslim Sender: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Errors-To: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Precedence: bulk canslim-digest Tuesday, February 17 1998 Volume 02 : Number 119 In this issue: Re: [CANSLIM] various Re: [CANSLIM] various Re: [CANSLIM] SE Re: [CANSLIM] Fw: Mitel Corp (MLT) Re: [CANSLIM] airline group (was various) Re: [CANSLIM] Options RE: [CANSLIM] SE Re: [CANSLIM] airline group (was various) Re: [CANSLIM] SBL, SEBL (was SE) Re: [CANSLIM] airline group (was various) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Date: Mon, 16 Feb 1998 07:02:09 -0500 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] various The Australia/New Zealand economy is linked far closer to Asia than is the US economy. This includes travel, airlines, etc. But even the major US airlines with Asian exposure still depend for the most part on domestic travel, thus I wouldn't expect any more impact on them from the Asian flu than we have thus far seen in other industry groups (and the impact should be less than on tech stocks, and look at how they bounced back). Any statements or opinions are strictly my own and not that of my employer. My comments should not be interpreted as a recommendation of any kind. I am a licensed (inactive) broker and an active investor. All investors should do their own research prior to any investment, especially one learned about on the Internet. Hopefully my comments will better inform and educate all investors. tom w - -----Original Message----- From: Deepak Kapur To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Date: Sunday, February 15, 1998 4:41 PM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] various >Dean, > >I have the impression that Quantas and Air NZ depend a lot on >Asia for their revenues and profits, whereas for US carriers, >that may not be true. I have the same question as Chris, but it >may be too early to tell whether we have a reversal, especially >when many airlines including US Air, SouthWest and perhaps other >regionals made new highs in the past week. Just like Chris, I >also noticed a major reversal on Friday afternoon when Delta, and >Amerian went into negative territory having been up strongly in >the morning. > >Deepak > > >- > - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 16 Feb 1998 07:15:53 -0500 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] various Actually, Iraq has been exporting some oil, altho the total quantity is small compared to OPEC, with the proceeds supposed to go for food and medicine. Of course, I also note that the children are starving to death, there is an extreme shortage of medical supplies, and 70 or so new palaces were nonetheless financed and built. A military strike on Iraq will cause crude oil prices to spike, just as they did a month or so ago when the fear of a strike was high. On the other hand, with demand in Asia down, warmer weather in North America due El Nino (as well as some other parts of the globe), and OPEC having recently increased production and export by about 10%, supply/demand dynamics will bring the price back down once the damage assessment in Iraq is clear. Counterbalancing this, however, is that some major cos have been cutting back on exploration, drilling and production in marginal fields due to the lower prices. Any statements or opinions are strictly my own and not that of my employer. My comments should not be interpreted as a recommendation of any kind. I am a licensed (inactive) broker and an active investor. All investors should do their own research prior to any investment, especially one learned about on the Internet. Hopefully my comments will better inform and educate all investors. tom w - -----Original Message----- From: Chip Anderson To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Date: Sunday, February 15, 1998 5:03 PM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] various >Great discussion! My prediction is that the airlines will continue up >as long as oil prices continue down. Asia's supposedly had a big drop >in demand for oil which is depressing prices. So a related question >is what will US action in Iraq do to oil prices? Iraq's not exporting >so it shouldn't affect supply/demand equations, but the psychological >effect can't be good. If the crisis gets defused, will oil prices >continue down? If so, will airlines continue up? > - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 16 Feb 1998 07:38:24 -0500 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] SE Mike, I never expect meaningful support from an 8 month old high, all that represents to me is potential resistance. I read this chart as forming a base at the 35 to 36 level going back to late Oct, with two prior attempts to breakout. Most recently, the base appears to have inched its way into the 37 territory, but the current price still puts it more than 10% over this price. As to RS, yes, it may dwindle during an esp lengthy basing formation, as should volume. I still expect a strong RS (over 80 at a minimum and preferably well over 90, esp in today's mkt conditions) for a good b/o candidate. Certainly, many stocks may "breakout" on lower vol and RS, and only build these nrs as the mkt becomes convinced that the b/o is real and sustained, but by then most will be more than 10% extended from the lengthy base. So either you take higher risk on a low RS stock with a lengthy base "appearing" to break out, or you wait for the technicals to confirm the breakout and buy it as a momemtum play (as opposed to CANSLIM) when it is already extended. Any statements or opinions are strictly my own and not that of my employer. My comments should not be interpreted as a recommendation of any kind. I am a licensed (inactive) broker and an active investor. All investors should do their own research prior to any investment, especially one learned about on the Internet. Hopefully my comments will better inform and educate all investors. tom w - -----Original Message----- From: Mike Lucero To: 'canslim@lists.xmission.com' Date: Sunday, February 15, 1998 7:13 PM Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] SE >It's only about 4% above July 16's closing high of 39.625. > >Don't you find that some of these bigger patterns often have lower RS? >Would you expect a bigger pattern to have less potential than an 8-12 week >pattern? For some reason, I thought a bigger pattern would be more >powerful. > >Thanks, > >Mike > >On Sunday, February 15, 1998 5:55 AM, Tom Worley [SMTP:stkguru@netside.net] >wrote: >> RS of 74 would keep this off my watch list even more than the extended >> condition. >> - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 16 Feb 1998 09:44:16 -0500 From: Peter Newell Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Fw: Mitel Corp (MLT) Tom, I think your right its on the NYSE and below $15 which is their cutoff. Thanks for the input, Peter - ---------- > From: Tom Worley > To: CANSLIM > Subject: [CANSLIM] Fw: Mitel Corp (MLT) > Date: Monday, February 16, 1998 6:23 AM > > Well, at least DG's response confirms the group ID, even tho it sheds no > light on why it's not in the book. > > Any statements or opinions are strictly my own and not that of my employer. > My comments should not be interpreted as a recommendation of any kind. I am > a licensed (inactive) broker and an active investor. All investors should do > their own research prior to any investment, especially one learned about on > the Internet. Hopefully my comments will better inform and educate all > investors. > tom w > -----Original Message----- > From: Customer Service > To: 'Tom Worley' > Date: Sunday, February 15, 1998 7:22 PM > Subject: RE: Mitel Corp (MLT) > > > >MLT is in the Telecommunicatons Equip industry. Moreover, the fundamental > >(datablock) is not available if a stock has not met the criteria to be in > >the printed product. > > > >Thank you, > >Daily Graphs Online > > > >-----Original Message----- > >From: Tom Worley [SMTP:stkguru@netside.net] > >Sent: Sunday, February 15, 1998 4:39 AM > >To: DGOnline Customer Service > >Subject: Mitel Corp (MLT) > > > >I'm curious why MLT does not have a data block or (presumably) is in the DG > >books. Is this due to the ADV of 60,500 being relatively low for its group, > >or due to its current price (11 7/8)? Also can you confirm that it is in > >the > >Telecom-Equip group? > > > >Thanks > > > >Any statements or opinions are strictly my own and not that of my employer. > >My comments should not be interpreted as a recommendation of any kind. I am > >a licensed (inactive) broker and an active investor. All investors should > >do > >their own research prior to any investment, especially one learned about on > >the Internet. Hopefully my comments will better inform and educate all > >investors. > >tom w > > > > > - - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 16 Feb 1998 09:07:18 -0800 From: "Mike Artobello" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] airline group (was various) On 16 Feb 98 at 6:56, Tom Worley wrote: > I haven't followed this group that closely in some time, altho have noted it > was doing well lately. Several airline stocks have made my CARS scan, which looks for LLUR chart patterns. Here's the list: ACAI - on the list for 3 weeks ALK - on the list for 15 weeks CAI B - first week on the list LUV - on the list for 3 weeks MAIR - first week on the list SKYW - on the list for 3 weeks I haven't checked the IBD numbers on these yet, but the charts look good, if you like LLUR chart patterns. If anyone's interested, my scan files are located at http://www.ccnet.com/~marto/qpscan/ Regards, Mike - ----------------------------------------------------------- Mike Artobello marto@ccnet.com http://www.ccnet.com/~marto/ - ----------------------------------------------------------- - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 16 Feb 1998 13:57:49 -0800 (PST) From: Rolatzi Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Options Jeffrey: I hate to raise it but I have used some of the ideas of Henry Ford who uses some of ideas of CANSLIM with options. I did really well until last fall when the market dropped out and I lost a lot of money. Over all for the year I was still up about 30% but I gave back most of my profits. I started by running 5-10 K in options for a single company and by the time the market dropped I was doing 10-15 K of up to three different options at a time. I actually like the idea of options because you can leave most of your assets in money market and decide how much you are willing to wager. I used call options at least three months out and sold them if they went to 30 days from expiration. In addition, I only used options that were about $5 in the money. In terms of choosing companies, I would use the normal CANSLIM principles but would only choose companies that had very good volume (for liquidity) and small spreads in the bid and ask. I have been too busy at work to continue it lately, it requires a lot of time and the ability to look a few times a day at the option prices and the market as a whole. I will get back to it. Encouragement would be appreciated. While, CANSLIM priciples encourages the holding of stocks for long periods, my experience has been that stop losses are hit quickly for almost all the companies I have invested in. Ciao, Rich - ---Jeffry White <"postwhit@sover.net"@sover.net> wrote: > > Tom: > > I recently began using in the money Calls on CANSLIM stocks priced over > 30 bucks with good results. It has eliminated what I always considered > one of the biggest psychological impediments to my speculation efforts. > That is, I always sought out the cheaper stocks because my account > lacked the capital to hold higher priced issues. I also have had a hard > time actually setting that important stop loss order. In the money Call > buying solves both of these problems. They feed the "greed bug" a bit, > but that is usually less of a problem for me than lack of capital and > stop loss placement. > > In light of our similar tendencies on price and stop loss placement > (sorry, but I think you agree), have you tried options as an alternative > to the issue itself? > > > Jeffry > > - > >
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- - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 16 Feb 1998 15:24:00 -0800 From: Komkit Tukovinit Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] SE Hi, I posted the stock because I liked its fundamentals. Sales is growing at a good clip (47% mrq), and so is EPS (28% mrq). The balance sheet also looked really strong. As tomw has mentioned, though, the stock has a low RS. Further check on my part shows that the stock has been underperforming S&P 500 as well as the entire software sector in the past year (a laggard???), which probably has a correlation with the low RS. Also, Baseline indicates that the stocks are 86% owned by institutions, which I am sure, are not an acceptable level for many members in this group. The stock has been moved from my possible invesment op list to a tech-watch list. I don't subscribe to IBD, and therefore, don't have access to its RS indicator, so I have to apologize for posting a "lower quality" stock. I used to subscribe in the past but found I was too impatient to look through the papers every day. Nowadays, I do research mostly on-line (instant gratification), and am fine-tuning my scanning criteria. Here are some stocks that didn't come up on the screen, but are on my watch list, and seem to be doing good things: SBL - C&H Completed. Drawback: 88% owned by institutions SEBL - will be C&H if there's a break through on Tuesday. Drawback: 36% owned by institutions, 96PE, although with 300% EPS growth for 1997. ANF - C&H kom It's only about 4% above July 16's closing high of 39.625. Don't you find that some of these bigger patterns often have lower RS? Would you expect a bigger pattern to have less potential than an 8-12 week pattern? For some reason, I thought a bigger pattern would be more powerful. Thanks, - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 16 Feb 1998 23:19:14 -0500 From: "Frank V. Wolynski" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] airline group (was various) >Thus, I would consider the industry to be in good shape, >has made some strong moves recently, and needs to do some consolidating. > Could not resist offering my 2cents. The Airlines Group has moved well for the past 12 months. Up 94% in 240 trading days. Since early november it has tacked on 45% of that gain. It was ranked by IBD, #1 the last week of Jan and 1st week of February. I would think that anyone who was the least bit interested in the stock market would have seen the performance of the airlines especially being highlighted on CNBC for a couple of months now. So the question is, "who's left to buy 'em?" Maybe lots..... That said, the Techs & Semi's last summer and the Energy & Oils in Oct 97 ran up slightly over 100% before topping and then declining. One thing both groups had in common was the ability to stir up the mud. That is to say, the move also carried the worst stocks in the group up also. That doesn't seem to be a prerequisite for a top however. What news could possibly affect them negatively? Dunno, I don't consider the "after the move" news relevant. I've only tracked the IBD Industry groups for 8 months and have never seen a group hold the number one performance slot for longer than 2 weeks. Semi's may have done it last summer, I just don't have the data available. Airlines could be the first group to do so. Frank Wolynski I am often wrong, plan accordingly. >-----Original Message----- >From: CA011667@aol.com >To: canslim@lists.xmission.com >Date: Sunday, February 15, 1998 3:11 PM >Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] various > > >>To Tom W. >> >>I rarely post to the group, however I do read most posts. I find you have >>excellent insight and well educated opinions of the markets. That being >said, >>I was wondering what your analysis of the airline group is taking in to >>account the apparent technical reverse several of the leaders suffered in >>Fridays trading. I own Comair and Southwest on thier recent breakouts in >the >>26.00 area. In short, do you think this is a temporary pull back or the >start >>of an intermidiate term correction. If it is the latter, this does not bode >>well for DJIA if you are a Dow theorist. Thanks in advance for your reply >and >>God bless. Chris. >> >>- >> > > >- > > - - ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 17 Feb 1998 06:52:06 -0500 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] SBL, SEBL (was SE) Checked the institutional holdings on these two at DG Online, on SBL it shows funds 29% and banks 10%; and on SEBL only shows funds 7% and banks 3%. I did note that management holds 67% on SEBL. Be careful about "impatience", I've made my biggest mistakes because I was in a hurry. However, you might want to download and register for Daily Graphs Online (www.dailygraphs.com), don't know how much longer it will remain in beta and free, but it gives you far more CANSLIM data in one site than even IBD. Any statements or opinions are strictly my own and not that of my employer. My comments should not be interpreted as a recommendation of any kind. I am a licensed (inactive) broker and an active investor. All investors should do their own research prior to any investment, especially one learned about on the Internet. Hopefully my comments will better inform and educate all investors. tom w - -----Original Message----- From: Komkit Tukovinit To: 'canslim@lists.xmission.com' Date: Monday, February 16, 1998 6:25 PM Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] SE >I don't subscribe to IBD, and therefore, don't have access to its RS >indicator, so I have to apologize for posting a "lower quality" stock. >I used to subscribe in the past but found I was too impatient to look >through the papers every day. Nowadays, I do research mostly on-line watch >list, and seem to be doing good things: > >SBL - C&H Completed. Drawback: 88% owned by institutions >SEBL - will be C&H if there's a break through on Tuesday. Drawback: 36% >owned by institutions, 96PE, although with 300% EPS growth for 1997. >ANF - C&H >kom > >It's only about 4% above July 16's closing high of 39.625. >Don't you find that some of these bigger patterns often have lower RS? >Would you expect a bigger pattern to have less potential than an 8-12 >week pattern? For some reason, I thought a bigger pattern would be more >powerful. > Thanks, > > >- > - - ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 17 Feb 1998 06:58:31 -0500 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] airline group (was various) Nice group of charts, Mike. Saw a few with weaker EPS than I would like, but all had good charts and very high RS. GRS is still 99. SKYW, ALK, & MAIR are currently #1, 2 and 4 in this group. Any statements or opinions are strictly my own and not that of my employer. My comments should not be interpreted as a recommendation of any kind. I am a licensed (inactive) broker and an active investor. All investors should do their own research prior to any investment, especially one learned about on the Internet. Hopefully my comments will better inform and educate all investors. tom w - -----Original Message----- From: Mike Artobello To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Date: Monday, February 16, 1998 12:05 PM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] airline group (was various) Several airline stocks have made my CARS scan, which looks for LLUR chart patterns. Here's the list: ACAI - on the list for 3 weeks ALK - on the list for 15 weeks CAI B - first week on the list LUV - on the list for 3 weeks MAIR - first week on the list SKYW - on the list for 3 weeks I haven't checked the IBD numbers on these yet, but the charts look good, if you like LLUR chart patterns. If anyone's interested, my scan files are located at http://www.ccnet.com/~marto/qpscan/ Regards, Mike - ----------------------------------------------------------- Mike Artobello marto@ccnet.com http://www.ccnet.com/~marto/ - ----------------------------------------------------------- - - - - ------------------------------ End of canslim-digest V2 #119 ***************************** To unsubscribe to canslim-digest, send an email to "majordomo@xmission.com" with "unsubscribe canslim-digest" in the body of the message. For information on digests or retrieving files and old messages send "help" to the same address. Do not use quotes in your message.