From: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com (canslim-digest) To: canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Subject: canslim-digest V2 #122 Reply-To: canslim Sender: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Errors-To: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Precedence: bulk canslim-digest Thursday, February 19 1998 Volume 02 : Number 122 In this issue: [CANSLIM] CANSLIM archive search... Re: [CANSLIM] CANSLIM archive search... [CANSLIM] Economic Calendar week of February 16, 1998 Re: [CANSLIM] Re: Compaq TA [CANSLIM] World Markets [CANSLIM] Greenspan [CANSLIM] Reat-time quotes / break-outs Re: [CANSLIM] Reat-time quotes / break-outs [CANSLIM] Daily Graphs Online [CANSLIM] Attack on Iraq Census ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Date: Wed, 18 Feb 1998 16:19:21 -0700 From: jeff@scrooge.csd.sdl.usu.edu (Jeff Salisbury) Subject: [CANSLIM] CANSLIM archive search... Everyone, It's been a productive day! As promised, I installed a new web-page that will allow you to search the canslim archives. Check out the web-page at: http://www.xmission.com/~mcjathan/canslim/search.html This page and the other archive interface page I announced earlier were found on the web and installed in my xmission account. I didn't author these pages and associated scripts. They look pretty good to me. However, unfortunately the archive interface page and archive search page are not integrated with each other. I've also spotted some glitches and bugs. At some point in the future, I will work some more on these pages to correct bugs, and integrate these pages with each other and the other existing canslim pages. Despite some minor flaws, I hope these two new pages will help you to get more from our group... Best Regards, Jeff Salisbury - canslim list admin/owner - - ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 18 Feb 1998 18:56:44 -0500 From: Craig Griffin Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] CANSLIM archive search... Jeff, This is great news. Thank you! Best regards, Craig At 04:19 PM 2/18/98 -0700, you wrote: >Everyone, > >It's been a productive day! As promised, I installed a new web-page that will >allow you to search the canslim archives. Check out the web-page at: > > http://www.xmission.com/~mcjathan/canslim/search.html > >This page and the other archive interface page I announced earlier were found >on the web and installed in my xmission account. I didn't author these pages >and associated scripts. They look pretty good to me. However, unfortunately >the archive interface page and archive search page are not integrated with each >other. I've also spotted some glitches and bugs. At some point in the future, >I will work some more on these pages to correct bugs, and integrate these pages >with each other and the other existing canslim pages. > >Despite some minor flaws, I hope these two new pages will help you to get more >from our group... > >Best Regards, > >Jeff Salisbury - canslim list admin/owner > >- > > - - ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 18 Feb 1998 19:39:48 -0500 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] Economic Calendar week of February 16, 1998 TUESDAY Industrial Production, for January, last was up 0.5%, estimate for up 0.2%, and my vacationing mind has already forgot what was actually reported WEDNESDAY Producer Price Index, for January, last was down 0.2%, estimate for down 0.2%, and actual down 0.7%, helping today's stock mkt altho leading to apparent profit taking on the bond mkt. Excluding the volatile elements of food and energy, the core rate still dropped 0.1%, slightly below the expectation of unchanged. Housing Starts, for Jan, last was revised upward slightly to 1.53 million, estimate and actual was also for 1.53 mil THURSDAY Trade Balance, for Dec, last was down $8.0 bil, estimate for down $9.0 bil. This report, while not usually very significant, may refocus attention on the impact of the US GDP and economic growth as a result of the Asian flu. I have already seen more talk about deflation as a result of the PPI report. Initial Jobless Claims, week to 2/14, last was 303,000, estimate for 305,000 Money Supply (M2), week to 2/9, last was up $9.9 bil, estimate for down $1.5 bil Any statements or opinions are strictly my own and not that of my employer. My comments should not be interpreted as a recommendation of any kind. I am a licensed (inactive) broker and an active investor. All investors should do their own research prior to any investment, especially one learned about on the Internet. Hopefully my comments will better inform and educate all investors. tom w - - ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 18 Feb 1998 20:03:46 -0500 From: Craig Griffin Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Re: Compaq TA Hi Robert, I have had my eyes on CPQ at the top of my watch list the last couple of days. So here are some thoughts. On 01/26 and 01/27 it was downgraded from Buy to Accumulate by the Deutche Morgan & the Alex Brown brokerages (due to the merger announcement on 01/26 with DEC) and it is up 18% since then. Nobody cared much about the downgrades. It has formed a nice cup with handle over the last 5 months. The volume is drying up perfectly in the handle. The handle is in a tight 7% range and is forming approximately 10% below the top of the cup (from the left side) - which is ok. The 10dma just intersected with the handle yesterday. The 50dma has recently resumed it's uptrend and is at about 30 1/2 (stock is trading at about 35). Low point in handle thus far was 34 3/8. Highest point in handle was 36 7/8. This would be the pivot point. Stock was at 8 1/2 (split adjusted) two years ago - this is the longest rest it has taken since then. Most recent split was 2 for 1 on 1/21/98. Per DG - - -Average Daily Volume (ADV) is 21 million. - -ERG (EPS, Rel Str, Group RS) = 95/88/34. GRS is low at 34. But the group leader, DELL has a RS of 99. - -Timeliness rank is only C, not too hot. - -Next EPS due date is 4/16. - -Up/down is 1.0. Accum/Dist is B. - -Funds own 24%. - -1998 Estimate is $1.65 (+18%). 1999 estimate is $2.15 (+30%). - -FYE is December. I do not know to what extent if any the DEC numbers have been included. DEC is a turnaround. Earned $.68 for 1997. FYE is June. Estimates are for $2.30 in 1998 (+238%) and $3.55 in 1999 (+54%). Looks like it should be a nice extra load of coal for the CPQ growth engine's boiler room. The industry, customers, and investment community have generally applauded the proposed merger with DEC. See http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/980127/compaq_dig_1.html for more info, but here is a relevant quote from the news release: >The combined company will create the largest channel network >in the world delivering over 80 percent of its products and >solutions to customers. Compaq's field resources will continue >to complement the strong reseller channel, focusing on building > enduring customer relationships worldwide. These resources >include individuals dedicated to pre-sales and sales account >management, professional and consulting services and global > service and support. ... snip ... >The operational model is designed to fully leverage the >solutions, business partners, employees, and customers of each company. The deal will be paid for with $4.8 billion cash (from available $8.5 billion in liquidity) and 150 million shares of new CPQ stock (there are currently 1500 million shares outstanding, so this will increase shares out by 10% only). This of course blows the "S" in CANSLIM all to pieces (but then DELL has 250 million shares out too), but who cares if the stock performs ;^). Wonder how much of the recent price and volume action is related to some kind of arbitrage between CPQ and DEC shares (like mutual funds selling DEC and moving into CPQ for instance)? I have no clue how to tell. Chaiken 21 day money flow (is this what Connie refers too?) went positive concurrent with the DEC announcement and has stayed positive ever since. Candlesticks look bullish due to the price action on 2/3 and 2/4 (long white bars). Stochastics looks negative to me. Bollinger bands are wide - upper is at about 38 1/2, lower is at about 28. Resistance from back in September-October is at about 38. Support from around November-December is at around 33. That's it from my perspective. Hopefully Connie will contribute a more practiced opinion re: stochastics, money flow, and others. Regards, Craig PS. See URL below for latest news re:DELL earnings from Yahoo at 6:25pm http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980218/after_the__1.html >After the markets closed, Dell reported fourth-quarter >earnings per share of $0.81 against $0.50 for the same >period a year before. A First Call consensus had been >for earnings of $0.76 a share. At 12:52 PM 2/18/98 -0600, you wrote: >If the group would indulge me, could I suggest a short >term project.Compaq has lead in volume sales for the last >2 wks +/- for that matter every day. Not a CANSLIM type >but I have a fascination with some of Connies's >comments about tech indicators and have been analysing >certain stocks like CPQ. It seems to me that there is an >opportunity to study what is happening to compaq given >certain factors we can all tend to agree on: > >market breaking through all time high >good company cpq, good numbers >good sector with good other leaders (e.g. Dell) >huge sustained volume interest >more? > >May I suggest a technical forum for a few days. >where we discuss different technical approaches. e.g >I have looked at OBV and I interpret volume going in >to support an upward short term price move. (as of yesterday) > - - ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 19 Feb 1998 06:23:53 -0500 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] World Markets Looks like we may be heading into a day of consolidation, after the short term run we have had, no surprise. Still, may only last for the morning, and so far doesn't look severe. NASDAQ futures up slightly, so if tech stocks hold up we might see a positive day on that exchange at least. Russell 2000 starting to look pretty weak by comparison in the past few days. I have also been noting the steady drop in the 10 day moving average of up volume on both NYSE and NASDAQ, while the down vol MA is slowly climbing. Probably a lot of the reason why both mkts are not as overbought as a week ago. This may help soften any consolidation. Am considering cashing out the two funds in my 401, they seem to give ground easily in any consolidation/correction. So far have not sold anything else, altho I am real twitchy on my EPIQ with better than a 50% gain in five weeks, but with heavy volume and new highs almost every day, I am torn between taking profits and holding on. I set an 8 week target of 22 mostly in jest, but hitting 16.25 yesterday makes it look more plausible. Each day is a new day, and time will tell. Any statements or opinions are strictly my own and not that of my employer. My comments should not be interpreted as a recommendation of any kind. I am a licensed (inactive) broker and an active investor. All investors should do their own research prior to any investment, especially one learned about on the Internet. Hopefully my comments will better inform and educate all investors. tom w - - ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 19 Feb 1998 06:30:36 -0500 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] Greenspan Alan Greenspan addresses the Senate on Feb 25 at 10AM. This is the second leg of his Humphrey-Hawkins testimony. I do not expect any surprises or major deviation from what he already told the House, depending on what questions he might get asked. The one new item that may come up is his opinion on the latest Japanese economic stimulus, to be announced on Friday. He will also have more data on the effect of the Asian flu on the US economy by then. Any statements or opinions are strictly my own and not that of my employer. My comments should not be interpreted as a recommendation of any kind. I am a licensed (inactive) broker and an active investor. All investors should do their own research prior to any investment, especially one learned about on the Internet. Hopefully my comments will better inform and educate all investors. tom w - - ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 19 Feb 1998 11:52:39 -0800 From: Komkit Tukovinit Subject: [CANSLIM] Reat-time quotes / break-outs Real-time quotes are available for free at www.money.com (50 quotes / day), although you have to give some information away. B/O today: ERTS. (has been underperforming the entire sector: good revenue/earning growth, although the company seems to be in a very dynamic (unstable) sector) (+8% on a very high volume) MEMCF: Is this a double-bottom B/O or is this just another momentum play? Hopefully B/O someday: THQI, DCTM kom - - ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 19 Feb 1998 15:51:46 -0500 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Reat-time quotes / break-outs Low RS, as well as mediocre EPS, on ERTS and MEMCF would make me leary (remember even laggards can rise in a bull trend). The inconsistency of earnings and revenues on THQI doesn't look so hot. DCTM has possibilities. Any statements or opinions are strictly my own and not that of my employer. My comments should not be interpreted as a recommendation of any kind. I am a licensed (inactive) broker and an active investor. All investors should do their own research prior to any investment, especially one learned about on the Internet. Hopefully my comments will better inform and educate all investors. tom w - -----Original Message----- From: Komkit Tukovinit To: 'CANSLIM' Date: Thursday, February 19, 1998 3:00 PM Subject: [CANSLIM] Reat-time quotes / break-outs >B/O today: >ERTS. (has been underperforming the entire sector: good >revenue/earning growth, although the company seems to be in a very >dynamic (unstable) sector) (+8% on a very high volume) >MEMCF: Is this a double-bottom B/O or is this just another momentum >play? > >Hopefully B/O someday: THQI, DCTM > >kom > > >- > - - ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 19 Feb 1998 16:39:50 -0500 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] Daily Graphs Online For any DGO beta testers in the group, if you input a symbol you know is good and get the error message of invalid symbol, send email to CusServ. Apparently there were some symbols "inadvertently deleted or omitted" and the problem should be fixed by this weekend. Any statements or opinions are strictly my own and not that of my employer. My comments should not be interpreted as a recommendation of any kind. I am a licensed (inactive) broker and an active investor. All investors should do their own research prior to any investment, especially one learned about on the Internet. Hopefully my comments will better inform and educate all investors. tom w - - ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 19 Feb 1998 23:32:45 -0500 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] Attack on Iraq Census With about 600 members in the main group, plus many additional I am asking this of, I hope to get some kind of grass roots feel for the following: A) do you as an individual expect the US to attack Iraq in the next several weeks? B) if so, when is the earliest you think the first attack will happen? C) among your contacts, associates, friends, neighbors etc, what seems to be the general expectation on whether or not the US will attack? Please respond directly to me at stkguru@netside.net. Do not send to any of the group addresses as I do not wish to clog up the groups. I will summarize results by sometime Sunday, so a timely response would be appreciated. What I am trying to do is get a world wide feel for "expectations", and thus some glimmer of an idea on how the international markets will react. For those outside the USA, it would help if you identify your country. Thanks for the help. Any statements or opinions are strictly my own and not that of my employer. My comments should not be interpreted as a recommendation of any kind. I am a licensed (inactive) broker and an active investor. All investors should do their own research prior to any investment, especially one learned about on the Internet. Hopefully my comments will better inform and educate all investors. tom w/tom worley/tex worley '70 - - ------------------------------ End of canslim-digest V2 #122 ***************************** To unsubscribe to canslim-digest, send an email to "majordomo@xmission.com" with "unsubscribe canslim-digest" in the body of the message. For information on digests or retrieving files and old messages send "help" to the same address. 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