From: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com (canslim-digest) To: canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Subject: canslim-digest V2 #124 Reply-To: canslim Sender: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Errors-To: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Precedence: bulk canslim-digest Sunday, February 22 1998 Volume 02 : Number 124 In this issue: [CANSLIM] Re: canslim-digest V2 #123 [CANSLIM] tmbs Re: [CANSLIM] tmbs Re: [CANSLIM] tmbs [CANSLIM] Fw: Weekly Economic Update [CANSLIM] Furon (FCY) Re: [CANSLIM] Furon (FCY) [CANSLIM] Re: canslim-digest V2 #123 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Date: Sat, 21 Feb 1998 13:29:19 -0800 (PST) From: Joseph Vaughn-Perling Subject: [CANSLIM] Re: canslim-digest V2 #123 Using a credit card over the internet is a lot like using it in a restaurant where the waiter picks it up and walks off with it. The waiter could run up US$10K of charges any you wouldn't have to pay for any of it because that is your agreement with the credit card company. The same is true of online transactions. I've had hundreds of dollars run up on a card that I used for an online transaction. 1 tem minute call later and the charges were removed from my bill. Then changed the number and received new cards. Debit cards are another matter as the agreements are usually very much more in favor of the bank. Be careful using one of those MC/VISA debit cards. Joseph Vaughn-Perling =-=-=-=- In response to: Date: Sat, 21 Feb 1998 12:35:03 -0800 From: "Charles A. Wilmot" Subject: [CANSLIM] SecureTax Has anyone had experience filing with SecureTax? How about the security concerning the use of your credit card in payment of same? Chuck Wilmot Charles A. Wilmot cwilmot@azstarnet.com - - ------------------------------ Date: Sun, 22 Feb 1998 11:12:46 +0200 From: "David S. Pinhasik" Subject: [CANSLIM] tmbs Need help here. It broke out at about 15 less than 2 weeks ago. Went steadily up till Friday, closed down on 2.5X ADV. I was in at about 16 and now is going for 17 3/8 down 9/16. That makes it 16% above the b/o and 8.5% for me. Should I get out now, or is this just short term profit taking? David - - ------------------------------ Date: Sun, 22 Feb 1998 08:21:08 -0500 From: Peter Newell Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] tmbs David, Congrads on what looks like a perfect position. I'd let it challange the $15 line. This chart looks good to me. Last four days have been tough on market. Peter Newell - ---------- > From: David S. Pinhasik > To: canslim@lists.xmission.com > Subject: [CANSLIM] tmbs > Date: Sunday, February 22, 1998 4:12 AM > > Need help here. It broke out at about 15 less than 2 weeks ago. Went > steadily up till Friday, closed down on 2.5X ADV. I was in at about 16 and > now is going for 17 3/8 down 9/16. That makes it 16% above the b/o and 8.5% > for me. Should I get out now, or is this just short term profit taking? > > David > > > - - - ------------------------------ Date: Sun, 22 Feb 1998 08:28:32 -0500 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] tmbs David, CANSLIM elements are fine, RS 98, EPS 99, a/d A, Timeliness A, u/d 4.1. ADV is now 118,900 per DGO, so Friday's vol only about 1.5X ADV. Trailing PE is only 27, so hardly high priced for its rate of earnings growth of 53%. Looks to me more likely to be short term profit taking, possibly because it was a Friday and double witching, with the added uncertainty of Iraq. Would watch it closely, tho. Any statements or opinions are strictly my own and not that of my employer. My comments should not be interpreted as a recommendation of any kind. I am a licensed (inactive) broker and an active investor. All investors should do their own research prior to any investment, especially one learned about on the Internet. Hopefully my comments will better inform and educate all investors. tom w - -----Original Message----- From: David S. Pinhasik To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Date: Sunday, February 22, 1998 4:09 AM Subject: [CANSLIM] tmbs >Need help here. It broke out at about 15 less than 2 weeks ago. Went >steadily up till Friday, closed down on 2.5X ADV. I was in at about 16 and >now is going for 17 3/8 down 9/16. That makes it 16% above the b/o and 8.5% >for me. Should I get out now, or is this just short term profit taking? > >David > > >- > - - ------------------------------ Date: Sun, 22 Feb 1998 08:44:13 -0500 From: Tom Worley Subject: [CANSLIM] Fw: Weekly Economic Update This is a free service I subscribe to, and one of the reasons I post less commentary on economic reports as it is available to all. I posted it once before, and am reposting Sunday's report (it comes out once a week, so won't load your inbox) both because I was on vacation last week as well as for the benefit of any newcomers in the group interested in the influence of economics on the stock market. Generally I agree with the opinions presented, and it is a good "economic week in review". I have snipped most of the commercials, but left in IBD's. If you want to individually subscribe, instructions are at the bottom. Any statements or opinions are strictly my own and not that of my employer. My comments should not be interpreted as a recommendation of any kind. I am a licensed (inactive) broker and an active investor. All investors should do their own research prior to any investment, especially one learned about on the Internet. Hopefully my comments will better inform and educate all investors. tom w - -----Original Message----- From: timely-invest@mail-list.com To: stkguru@netside.net Date: Saturday, February 21, 1998 6:22 PM Subject: Weekly Economic Update >WELCOME - Vol. 3 No. 12 > >TIMELY INVESTMENT INFORMATION - Weekly Economic Update >====================================================== > >For new and old subscribers, there is an Archive Section >http://www.stockresearch.com/archive.html for your >convenience. It lists the original copy of each of our >research reports, updates to those reports, and articles >that we have published. > >======================================================== > >Please support this week's sponsors, as they support us. > >Investor's Business Daily >========================= > >FREE TWO WEEK TRIAL to America's Fastest Growing Newspaper >and the FREE VIDEOTAPE "The Real Secrets of Making Money." >Just click on the link http://www.stockresearch.com/ibdform.html >and fill out the simple form. Or send email to: >mailto:bobbose@stockresearch.com with IBD FREE TRIAL in the >Subject line and your complete United States Postal Address in >the message body. FOR US ADDRESSES ONLY. > >======================================================== > >This is a text only copy that should be fairly well >formatted for most e-mail programs. For those of you >that would prefer an easier to read format, simply click >on the link to our website, and if you want, print a copy. >http://www.stockresearch.com/weekecon.html > >========================================================= > >WEEKLY UPDATE FOR: February 21, 1998 > >Prior Week in Review: > >Financial Market Highlights: >============================ > > 02/20/98 02/13/98 %Change > >S&P 500 1,034.21 1,020.09 +1.38% >Dow Jones 8,413.94 8,370.10 +.52% >NASD Comp 1,728.13 1,710.42 +1.04% >Russell 2000 453.99 454.29 -.07% >SOX Index 314.14 306.81 +2.39% >Value Line 473.02 469.06 +.84% >MS Growth 476.00 471.95 +.86% >MS Cyclical 512.25 510.39 +.36% >T - Bill 5.07% 5.08% -1 BP >Long Bond 5.86% 5.84% +2 BP > > > >Economic News: >============== > >The "D" Word, as in Deflation, is Back in Use > It Makes for Good Headlines, But Bad Forecasts > >*Industrial Production Unchanged in January - See Comments >*Capacity Utilization slips to 83.0% from 83.3% in December >*January Producer Prices fell -0.7% - Core Rate (Ex Volatile > Food and Energy) fell -0.1% - Third consecutive decline >*Housing Starts for January ease -0,3% to 1.534 - See Below >*Housing Permits rose +3.5%, also to 1.534 million rate >*December Trade Deficit increased to $10.79 billion - But > Weakening was not with Asian Countries >*Jobless Claims decline 2,000 to 301,000 - Four Week Moving > Average drops to 302,000 - A decline of 6,500 >*Philadelphia FED Index eases to 12.8 in February from 17.3 > > >For those that are concerned about deflation, generally >defined as a period of broadly based falling prices, there >was supporting economic data last week. Our view, though, is >that deflation is not a serious risk, but that the buildup >of inflationary pressure is the bigger risk. Fortunately >we view neither outcome as most likely, believing instead >that the best bet is still solid economic growth with very >low levels of reported inflation. > >The headline grabber was clearly the Producer Price Index >report, as prices fell for the seventh straight month, >and even at the core level, which excludes the more >volatile food and energy prices, the rate has fallen very >modestly for three months in a row. And the more >forward looking Crude Goods and Intermediate Goods Indexes >have also declined. So, the deflationists have some data >to support their claim. > >But, and I am stating the obvious here, goods prices are >only one factor in the cost of production. What counts >is the overall cost of production, and whether overall >costs are rising/falling, and whether or not increased >costs can be passed on, or decreased costs lead to price >declines that then stimulate demand to prevent a >deflationary spiral from developing. And, in most cases >other costs of production are more dominant, to say nothing >of the fact that services account for an increasing >percentage of economic output. So, our view remains that >deflation is not a serious risk. > >Other data that the deflationists would rely on was that >industrial production failed to increase for the first time >since 1996, and that therefore the Asian crisis was already >slowing economic growth. Not so, or more accurately not yet. > >The industrial production index is seasonally adjusted, and >has several sub-components. One of those sub-components is >Utility Output, and because of the unseasonably warm weather, >courtesy of El Nino, utility output declined -4.0% - a huge >one month change. The only other component that was down >was consumer goods at -.1%. All other components, including >the manufacturing sector that would be impacted from an Asian >slowdown, were up. Not too surprisingly, then, our view is >that no change in industrial production is not a precursor >of a dramatically weaker economy, but simply a weather >induced seasonal adjustment. And, those things happen at >this time of year. > >So, the deflationist might ask, if the weather was so warm, >why were housing starts down? Well, down is not exactly the >right term, but it makes the headlines. Yes starts were >down versus the now revised December data, but they were >up from the originally reported data. And, at a rate in >excess of 1.5 million units annualized, with permits also >above 1.5 million units, the housing sector is very strong. > >It's only when the trade deficit is considered that there >are signs of weakness. The problem is that the widening >did not reflect a problem with the Asian economies, but >with our other trading partners. So, it is likely that >the trade deficit will get worse as more of the Asian >crisis impact is reflected in the data. > >Given the more current trade data, it is a certainty that >the revision to the previously reported fourth quarter Gross >Domestic Product will be significant. And, it also seems >likely that the Asian impact will hit harder in the >first quarter, so reported growth will be depressed. But, >the real issue is one of timing, at least in our opinion. > >Simply put, in our view the domestic economy is very strong, >and operating above non-inflationary trendline growth. The >Asian crisis will slow the growth rate, but will it slow it >sufficiently, and soon enough, to prevent a buildup of >inflationary pressures, particularly in the labor market. If >it does, the FED will remain on hold, but it seems highly >unlikely that they will lower rates without significant >evidence of economic weakness. > >If, however, the Asian crisis just produces a pause, and >then the consumer sector re-accelerates, the FED might >be forced to raise rates given the already high level of >resource utilization and the late stage of the economic >cycle. Versus a deflationary threat, in our view this >would be a more likely outcome. > >At the moment, though, our best case scenario is a middle >path, and the continuation of the Goldilocks Economy - Not >too hot, not too cold, but just right. We should know >more this week as Chairman Greenspan testifies before >Congress, often a volatile period for the financial markets >as participants weigh every word, as at times his remarks >are intended to convey a message. So, stay tuned it should >be an interesting week ! > > >Current Weekly Calendar of Economic Data: >========================================= > >Monday: >Tuesday: Consumer Price Index, Consumer Confidence, > Greenspan's Humphrey-Hawkins Testimony Begins >Wednesday: Existing Home Sales, Greenspan's Testimony Ends >Thursday: Jobless Claims, Durable Goods Orders >Friday: GDP 4th Qtr Revision, Chicago Purchasing > Managers' Index, Univ. of Michigan Consumer > Sentiment Index > > >Editor's Notes: >=============== > >As always, we appreciate it when you recommend our Website, our >newsletter, and the Investor's Business Daily FREE Trial Offer >to your friends and associates. 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Get completely free e-mail from Juno at http://www.juno.com Or call Juno at (800) 654-JUNO [654-5866] - - ------------------------------ Date: Sun, 22 Feb 1998 08:21:23 -0800 (PST) From: Rolatzi Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Furon (FCY) David: The stock didn't form a cup and handle, and didn't break out from distriubtion. Since your option will lose time value very rapidly in its last month, i would sell as soon as possible. This advice is worth what you paid for it. Ciao, Rich - ---David w Markle wrote: > > Furon (FCY) has been on in and outof this discussion group , so some of > you are probably familiar with it. I own some MAR 20 call options on > Furon and would like some TA/CANSLIM advice on what price/date to sell. > Please remember I already own the options. The time frame is the next > month (March 20th) > > Thanks a ton > > David Markle > > _____________________________________________________________________ > You don't need to buy Internet access to use free Internet e-mail. > Get completely free e-mail from Juno at http://www.juno.com > Or call Juno at (800) 654-JUNO [654-5866] > > > - > > _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - - ------------------------------ Date: Sun, 22 Feb 1998 18:09:45 -0500 From: snl1@pipeline.com Subject: [CANSLIM] Re: canslim-digest V2 #123 Can anyone tell me their opinion on these; on my "watch list"?: OSTE CMSX Thanks, Steven - - ------------------------------ End of canslim-digest V2 #124 ***************************** To unsubscribe to canslim-digest, send an email to "majordomo@xmission.com" with "unsubscribe canslim-digest" in the body of the message. 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