From: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com (canslim-digest) To: canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Subject: canslim-digest V2 #1259 Reply-To: canslim Sender: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Errors-To: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Precedence: bulk Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable X-No-Archive: yes canslim-digest Thursday, April 5 2001 Volume 02 : Number 1259 In this issue: Re: [CANSLIM] Another one bites the dust Re: [CANSLIM] Economics Re: [CANSLIM] headfake? Re: [CANSLIM] Another one bites the dust Re: [CANSLIM] wbb Re: [CANSLIM] wbb Re: [CANSLIM] wbb ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Date: Thu, 5 Apr 2001 21:30:08 -0400 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Another one bites the dust Tim, I agree that most stocks drop when a secondary is offered. It has become something of a self fulfilling prophecy these days. I have seen a few that moved up after such an announcement, but they are less than 10%. The shares being sold by existing shareholders will not affect shareholder value, they are already counted even if restricted so long as the company has a requirement to register them, and that is usually the case. On the other hand, their sale will increase the liquidity of the float, but without the company receiving any funds from the sale. The company will only receive funds from the new shares being issued, which will affect shareholder value, esp since it's pretty likely they will be sold well below recent prices. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net ICQ # 5568838 - ----- Original Message ----- From: Tim Fisher To: Sent: Thursday, April 05, 2001 1:49 PM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Another one bites the dust Show me a stock which did not drop when a secondary was announced. It's dilution of shareholder value, pure and simple. That's clearly how the market sees it - even though you may be right, your opinion means nothing to the stock. In addition to listening to what the market tells you, it's wise to listen to what the stock tells you. This one tells you to get out and stay out until after the secondary is completed. On 10:39 AM 4/5/01, Vanchee1@aol.com Said: >Disagree, good management team will use the proceeds to their advantage, >opening or buying more outlets and growing the company. > >Chris Tim Fisher Ore-Rock-On and Pacific Fishery Biologists WWW Sites Tim@OreRockOn.com WWW: http://OreRockOn.com See naked fish and rocks! - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 5 Apr 2001 21:33:14 -0400 From: "Robert McGill" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Economics This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------=_NextPart_000_0006_01C0BE18.05AB9F80 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Maybe someone with more of an economics background could respond but it = is my impression that G believes in the Philips Curve, which says that = high employment leads to inflation. Also he has been repeating over and = over that tight labor mkts lead to wage inflation. Also, from, "The = Greenspan Effect", by Sicilia, there is an entire chpt devoted to , Chpt = 9, "Tight Labor Markets", from pp-70, "The problem of course, was that = labor shortages-more jobs chasing fewer available workers-would put = upward pressure on wages, which could easily translate into inflation", = etc... and from pp-73, "A reemergence of inflation is, without = question, the greatest threat to sustaining what has been a balanced = economic expansion virtually without parallel in recent decades." From: Tom Worley=20 To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20 Sent: Thursday, April 05, 2001 9:16 PM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Economics From everything I have read and seen from Mr. G in well over three = years, he would not agree with your statement at all. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net ICQ # 5568838 ----- Original Message -----=20 From: Robert McGill=20 To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20 Sent: Thursday, April 05, 2001 8:59 AM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Economics Greenspan wants more unemployment. As an avowed Keynesian he = believes that high employment is conducive to inflation. I do not see = this info being indicative of a rate cut. ----- Original Message -----=20 From: Tom Worley=20 To: CANSLIM=20 Sent: Thursday, April 05, 2001 8:57 AM Subject: [CANSLIM] Economics Initial Jobless Claims report this morning supports a rate cut = before the May FOMC meeting. Monthly Employment Report for tomorrow = expected to show an increase to 4.3% unemployment, and negligible job = creations. Also supports a rate cut soon. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net ICQ # 5568838 - ------=_NextPart_000_0006_01C0BE18.05AB9F80 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
Maybe someone with more of an economics background = could=20 respond but it is my impression that G believes in the Philips Curve, = which says=20 that high employment leads to inflation.  Also he has been = repeating over=20 and over that tight labor mkts lead to wage inflation.  Also,  = from,=20 "The Greenspan Effect", by Sicilia, there is an entire chpt devoted to , = Chpt 9,=20 "Tight Labor Markets",   from pp-70, "The problem of = course, was=20 that labor shortages-more jobs chasing fewer available workers-would put = upward=20 pressure on wages, which could easily translate into inflation",=20 etc...  and from pp-73, "A reemergence of = inflation is,=20 without question, the greatest threat to sustaining what has been a = balanced=20 economic expansion virtually without parallel in recent = decades."
From:=20 Tom = Worley=20
Sent: Thursday, April 05, 2001 = 9:16=20 PM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] = Economics

From everything I have read and seen from Mr. G in = well over=20 three years, he would not agree with your statement at = all.

Tom Worley
stkguru@netside.net
ICQ #=20 5568838
 
 
----- Original Message -----
From:=20 Robert McGill =
Sent: Thursday, April 05, = 2001 8:59=20 AM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] = Economics

Greenspan wants more unemployment.  As an = avowed=20 Keynesian he believes that high employment is conducive to = inflation. =20 I do not see this info being indicative of a rate cut.
----- Original Message ----- =
From:=20 Tom=20 Worley
To: CANSLIM
Sent: Thursday, April 05, = 2001 8:57=20 AM
Subject: [CANSLIM] = Economics

Initial Jobless Claims report this morning = supports a=20 rate cut before the May FOMC meeting. Monthly Employment Report = for=20 tomorrow expected to show an increase to 4.3% unemployment, and = negligible=20 job creations.  Also supports a rate cut soon.

Tom Worley
stkguru@netside.net
ICQ = #=20 5568838
 
 
- ------=_NextPart_000_0006_01C0BE18.05AB9F80-- - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 5 Apr 2001 21:44:24 -0400 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] headfake? Looked to me like almost every major index closed strong at the close, and close to or at the high of the day. That bodes well for tomorrow morning. Futures right now are up slightly from their close, but there's a lot of time left to market opening. Europe closed very strongly, as did Latin America. Asia right now is mostly up, but not big time. A lot of trading hours still left for Asia to head south again. Japan is counting on approval of an economic stimulus and banking bailout package, yet the yen is down right now against the dollar. And, of course, the biggie is the Employment Report due for release tomorrow morning at 8:30 AM (east coast time). The "hope" is that it will show sufficient weakness to prompt the Feds into a rate cut before they next meet on May 15. Expectation is for new jobs creation of 56K to 70K, down sharply from Feb. And overall unemployment is expected to rise to 4.3% from 4.2% (I won't be surprised with 4.4%, BTW). But if new jobs is substantially over 70K, or the rate remains at 4.2%, expect a sharp drop as the market gives up hope (at least for a week or two) for a quick rate cut. In another 19 hours, we will know for sure if we have to give it all back! Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net ICQ # 5568838 - ----- Original Message ----- From: Robert McGill To: Sent: Thursday, April 05, 2001 3:25 PM Subject: [CANSLIM] headfake? Can't believe it's real. Will we give it back tomorrow? - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 5 Apr 2001 22:02:17 -0400 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Another one bites the dust I'll tackle a couple points, Tim. You are correct, the overallotment shares are normally brand new shares issued by the company. Occasionally I have seen overallotment used for existing shares being registered for present shareholders, but it's not normal and usually only when the entire secondary is by existing shareholders. From experience, I would be willing to bet that some of the institutional selling (esp from funds) came about, not because RCII now fails any of their standards or tests, but only because they know they can replace the shares from the new secondary issue. So they sold pretty high, and hope to buy back cheaper on the secondary, and thereby also show they still support the company, or the market maker, or somebody. They have been promised some of those 5 million shares (2.8 million new, 2.2 million existing), and may even know where they will be priced, giving them a chance to not only take a short term profit, but also know they can buy them back cheaper. I would have to question the intelligence and management ability of a company trying to do a secondary in this "M". If you're not running out of cash, it's the wrong time. Most IPOs that have made it to market had to be priced down, many more were simply postponed or cancelled because of market conditions, and an inability to raise the money needed. It was more sensible to remain private and wait for better times. Same goes for a secondary. Look at LU's desperate attempt to spin off Agere, as just one example, which is now trading way under its IPO price of just a few weeks ago. Bet those shareholders are thrilled by it. If you're a solid company with increasing earnings, which RCII claims to be (I say claims because sequential earnings are essentially flat now for four quarters on only slightly increased revenues), there are better ways to raise capital. Color me cynical, Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net ICQ # 5568838 - ----- Original Message ----- From: Tim Fisher To: Sent: Thursday, April 05, 2001 3:59 PM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Another one bites the dust The dilution is on the new shares, you are right there, BTW they have an additional 600+k overallotment, which is all new shares AFAIK, so it's more like 2.8 mil new shares. The float will increase by 30%. The dilution to earnings will not be as great. The bottom line is that a dilution is a dilution, and I IMU(uninformed)O the drop was the growth funds, of which there are at least 5 major holders, dumping it since RCII no longer meets the growth rate criteria for their funds, due to the difficult EPS comparisons going forward. On 12:33 PM 4/5/01, Spencer48@aol.com Said: >Tim: > > I agree that any secondary will dilute shareholder interest; and I also >believe as you do that it doesn't matter what management will do (the way to >tell, I believe, how big holders of RCII perceive the fact that RCII's >management is superror, is to see if the stock is now merely correcting or >beginning a downtrend). > > However, how do you get that the secondary is 30% of the float? Do you >believe that the secondary offering will be 4.4, and not 2.2, million >(assuming Chris is right, and if you don't think so, why not?)? If current >stock holders are offering the other 2.2, then EPS will not be diluted by >4.4-it's merely a 2.2 change of captains, not a 4.4 new launching of >additonal shares. I least this is what I believe according to my experience >in the stock market. Am I incorrect in this belief and in precisely what >way (ie. how did you figure what you figured)? > >Jans > >- >-To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" >-In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or >-"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. Tim Fisher Ore-Rock-On and Pacific Fishery Biologists WWW Sites Tim@OreRockOn.com WWW: http://OreRockOn.com See naked fish and rocks! - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 5 Apr 2001 22:10:15 -0400 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] wbb I wouldn't have to go any further than the earnings forecast of 14% this year, and 9% next year. That's way under the recommended 20%, and even further below my personal criteria of 40-50%. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net ICQ # 5568838 - ----- Original Message ----- From: To: Sent: Thursday, April 05, 2001 8:59 PM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] wbb Nancy, Here's how I see it. We are in a bear market, and I believe WON has said that stocks in bear markets should be given more leeway than the same stock would be given in a bull market. The other reasons why I don't believe that the handle is too low is that: The last four days the stock has indeed declined. However, the first two were on significantly less than ADV (the 50 day moving average's volume, ie. Average Daily Volume) meaning to me that there weren't too many sellers. Additonally, the last two days it has declined on immense ADV. To me this says that the weak hands (who in the first two days wouldn't sell) finally capitulated. But, the huge volume suggests that institutions were supporting it. It is just below the fifty day MA (moving average) price line (by the way, I am using DG-Online to analyze WBB). WON says the fifty MA is significant because that (and the 200 MA line) is where institutions will support a stock if they have faith in it. The most significant point, I believe, is that (although I'm not too crazy about the fact that the stock fell today-but maybe it was just having an idiosyncratic day) it churned-down today-that is, it lost only 17 cents on huge volume (nearly 3X ADV). This says to me that buyers were coming in to support it, even though WBB is in the midst of a deep decline (its trend seems to be down;however, this could just be the cup&handle chart formation). IBD has an article (I believe it's fairly recent) in the investors corner archives about down-day churns. IBD's conclusion is that a downday churn indicates that the stock is being supported by institutions. While WBB may indeed be a weak stock, I think if we were in a bull market, it's the kind of stock that would take off. The annual EPS this year and next year are 14 and 9%, respectively. Moreover, its ROE is 17%. The only downside (besides the fact that it's in a bear market) is that debt is 208%, but its industry is construction, and so I don't believe that's out of line. Also, its growth rate/PE is 19/6-so it has not only a lo PE (6), its growth rate/PE ratio is superior-and this is particularly significant because it EPS is over $4.50 (I say this because many brokers-how about you, Tom?-believe if the growth rate outpaces the PE than the stock is undervalued). It also has a nice up-trending relative strength line-this indicates that in the past it has been stronger than the market. And its February and March troughs were met with a strong divergence in this comparitive RS line. Because of these reasons I believe WBB should be watched and considered as a Canslim candidate-not discarded. 26 seems to be the support area too watch. WBB closed at 28.18. Its BO pivot point is at, I believe, 32 1/8. However, even if it crossed its pivot, I don't believe I'd buy it. However, that decision would not be because of the stock, but rather because of the stock market-I believe we are still in a bear. Jans In a message dated 4/5/2001 12:14:19 PM Eastern Daylight Time, NDiFabio@irell.com writes: << Should I be worried about the handle on WBB? Has it fallen too low? Nancy >> - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 5 Apr 2001 22:11:46 -0400 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] wbb This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------=_NextPart_000_0093_01C0BE1D.67963480 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable RE: [CANSLIM] wbbNever, Nancy. The only question not worthy of some kind = of response is the one not asked! Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net ICQ # 5568838 ----- Original Message -----=20 From: DiFabio, Nancy=20 To: 'canslim@lists.xmission.com'=20 Sent: Thursday, April 05, 2001 9:12 PM Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] wbb Thank you, Spencer for taking the time to provide me with all this = information. =20 During that long silence prior to hearing from Hugh, I thought that = the group did not esteem my question to be worthy of a response. Nancy=20 -----Original Message-----=20 From: Spencer48@aol.com [mailto:Spencer48@aol.com]=20 Sent: Thursday, April 05, 2001 6:00 PM=20 To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20 Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] wbb=20 Nancy,=20 Here's how I see it. We are in a bear market, and I believe WON = has=20 said that stocks in bear markets should be given more leeway than the = same=20 stock would be given in a bull market. =20 The other reasons why I don't believe that the handle is too low = is=20 that: The last four days the stock has indeed declined. However, = the first=20 two were on significantly less than ADV (the 50 day moving average's = volume,=20 ie. Average Daily Volume) meaning to me that there weren't too many = sellers. =20 Additonally, the last two days it has declined on immense ADV. To me = this=20 says that the weak hands (who in the first two days wouldn't sell) = finally=20 capitulated. But, the huge volume suggests that institutions were = supporting=20 it. It is just below the fifty day MA (moving average) price line (by = the=20 way, I am using DG-Online to analyze WBB). WON says the fifty MA is=20 significant because that (and the 200 MA line) is where institutions = will=20 support a stock if they have faith in it. =20 The most significant point, I believe, is that (although I'm not = too=20 crazy about the fact that the stock fell today-but maybe it was just = having=20 an idiosyncratic day) it churned-down today-that is, it lost only 17 = cents on=20 huge volume (nearly 3X ADV). This says to me that buyers were coming = in to=20 support it, even though WBB is in the midst of a deep decline (its = trend=20 seems to be down;however, this could just be the cup&handle chart = formation).=20 IBD has an article (I believe it's fairly recent) in the investors = corner=20 archives about down-day churns. IBD's conclusion is that a downday = churn=20 indicates that the stock is being supported by institutions.=20 While WBB may indeed be a weak stock, I think if we were in a = bull=20 market, it's the kind of stock that would take off. The annual EPS = this year=20 and next year are 14 and 9%, respectively. Moreover, its ROE is 17%. = The=20 only downside (besides the fact that it's in a bear market) is that = debt is=20 208%, but its industry is construction, and so I don't believe that's = out of=20 line. Also, its growth rate/PE is 19/6-so it has not only a lo PE (6), = its=20 growth rate/PE ratio is superior-and this is particularly significant = because it EPS is over $4.50 (I say this because many brokers-how = about you,=20 Tom?-believe if the growth rate outpaces the PE than the stock is=20 undervalued). It also has a nice up-trending relative strength = line-this=20 indicates that in the past it has been stronger than the market. And = its=20 February and March troughs were met with a strong divergence in this=20 comparitive RS line.=20 Because of these reasons I believe WBB should be watched and = considered=20 as a Canslim candidate-not discarded. 26 seems to be the support area = too=20 watch. WBB closed at 28.18. Its BO pivot point is at, I believe, 32 = 1/8. =20 However, even if it crossed its pivot, I don't believe I'd buy it. = However,=20 that decision would not be because of the stock, but rather because of = the=20 stock market-I believe we are still in a bear.=20 Jans=20 =20 In a message dated 4/5/2001 12:14:19 PM Eastern Daylight Time,=20 NDiFabio@irell.com writes:=20 << Should I be worried about the handle on WBB? Has it fallen too = low?=20 =20 Nancy >>=20 -=20 -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com"=20 -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or=20 -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email.=20 "WorldSecure " made the following annotations on 04/05/01 18:10:56 = - -------------------------------------------------------------------------= - ----- PLEASE NOTE: This message, including any attachments, may include = privileged, confidential and/or inside information. Any distribution or = use of this communication by anyone other than the intended recipient(s) = is strictly prohibited and may be unlawful. If you are not the intended = recipient, please notify the sender by replying to this message and then = delete it from your system. Thank you. = =3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D= =3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D= =3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D= =3D=3D=3D - ------=_NextPart_000_0093_01C0BE1D.67963480 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable RE: [CANSLIM] wbb
Never, Nancy. The only question not worthy of some = kind of=20 response is the one not asked!

Tom Worley
stkguru@netside.net
ICQ #=20 5568838
 
 
----- Original Message -----
From:=20 DiFabio,=20 Nancy
To: 'canslim@lists.xmission.com' =
Sent: Thursday, April 05, 2001 = 9:12=20 PM
Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] = wbb


Thank you, Spencer for taking the time to provide me = with all=20 this information. 

During that long silence prior to hearing from Hugh, = I thought=20 that the group did not esteem my   question to be worthy of = a=20 response.

Nancy
-----Original=20 Message-----
From: Spencer48@aol.com [mailto:Spencer48@aol.com] =
Sent: Thursday, April 05, 2001 6:00 PM
To:=20 canslim@lists.xmission.com
Subject: Re: = [CANSLIM]=20 wbb


Nancy,

     Here's how I see it.  = We are in=20 a bear market, and I believe WON has
said = that stocks=20 in bear markets should be given more leeway than the same =
stock would be given in a bull market. 

     The other reasons why I = don't believe=20 that the handle is too low is
that:  = The last=20 four days the stock has indeed  declined.  However, the = first=20
two were on significantly less than ADV (the = 50 day=20 moving average's volume,
ie. Average Daily = Volume)=20 meaning to me that there weren't too many sellers.  =
Additonally, the last two days it has declined on immense = ADV.  To=20 me this
says that the weak hands (who in the = first two=20 days wouldn't sell) finally
capitulated.  But,=20 the huge volume suggests that institutions were supporting =
it.  It is just below the fifty day MA (moving average) = price line=20 (by the
way, I am using DG-Online to analyze = WBB).  WON says the fifty MA is
significant=20 because that (and the 200 MA line) is where institutions will =
support a stock if they have faith in it. 

     The most significant point, = I=20 believe, is that (although I'm not too
crazy = about the=20 fact that the stock fell today-but maybe it was just having =
an idiosyncratic day) it churned-down today-that is, it lost = only 17=20 cents on
huge volume (nearly 3X ADV).  = This says=20 to me that buyers were coming in to
support = it, even=20 though WBB is in the midst of a deep decline (its trend =
seems to be down;however, this could just be the = cup&handle chart=20 formation).
 IBD has an article (I = believe it's=20 fairly recent) in the investors corner
archives about=20 down-day churns. IBD's conclusion is that a downday churn =
indicates that the stock is being supported by = institutions.=20

     While WBB may indeed be a = weak stock,=20 I think if we were in a bull
market, it's = the kind of=20 stock that would take off.  The annual EPS this year =
and next year are 14 and 9%, respectively. Moreover, its ROE = is=20 17%.  The
only downside (besides the = fact that=20 it's in a bear market) is that debt is
208%, = but its=20 industry is construction, and so I don't believe that's out of=20
line. Also, its growth rate/PE is 19/6-so it = has not=20 only a lo PE (6), its
growth rate/PE ratio = is=20 superior-and this is  particularly significant
because it EPS is over $4.50 (I say this because many = brokers-how about=20 you,
Tom?-believe if the growth rate = outpaces the PE=20 than the stock is
undervalued). It also has = a nice=20 up-trending relative strength line-this
indicates that=20 in the past it has been stronger than the market.  And its=20
February and March troughs were met with a = strong=20 divergence in this
comparitive RS = line.

     Because of these reasons I = believe=20 WBB should be watched and considered
as a = Canslim=20 candidate-not discarded. 26 seems to be the support area too =
watch. WBB closed at 28.18.  Its BO pivot point is at, I = believe,=20 32 1/8. 
However, even if it crossed = its pivot, I=20 don't believe I'd buy it.  However,
that decision=20 would not be because of the stock, but rather because of the =
stock market-I believe we are still in a bear.

Jans

     



In a message dated 4/5/2001 12:14:19 PM Eastern = Daylight Time,=20
NDiFabio@irell.com writes:

<< Should I be worried about the handle on = WBB? =20 Has it fallen too low?
  =
 Nancy >>

-
-To = subscribe/unsubscribe, email=20 "majordomo@xmission.com"
-In the email body, = write=20 "subscribe canslim" or
-"unsubscribe = canslim". =20 Do not use quotes in your email.

"WorldSecure <irell.com>" made the following
annotations = on=20 04/05/01=20 = 18:10:56
-------------------------------------------------------------= - -----------------
PLEASE=20 NOTE: This message, including any attachments, may include privileged, = confidential and/or inside information. Any distribution or use of = this=20 communication by anyone other than the intended recipient(s) is = strictly=20 prohibited and may be unlawful. If you are not the intended recipient, = please=20 notify the sender by replying to this message and then delete it from = your=20 system. Thank=20 = you.


=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D= =3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D= =3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D= =3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D

- ------=_NextPart_000_0093_01C0BE1D.67963480-- - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 5 Apr 2001 22:15:09 -0400 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] wbb This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------=_NextPart_000_00A4_01C0BE1D.E11BD300 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable RE: [CANSLIM] wbbNever, Nancy. The only question not worthy of some kind = of response is the one not asked! Take note, you lurkers. You should = know by now that there is not much I will not answer.=20 Sorry I am home so late, Nancy, had a Homeowners Assn meeting to attend = (yeah, there are occasionally other issues that can actually get my = attention besides the markets) or you would have heard from me sooner. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net ICQ # 5568838 =20 ----- Original Message -----=20 From: DiFabio, Nancy=20 To: 'canslim@lists.xmission.com'=20 Sent: Thursday, April 05, 2001 9:12 PM Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] wbb Thank you, Spencer for taking the time to provide me with all this = information. =20 During that long silence prior to hearing from Hugh, I thought that = the group did not esteem my question to be worthy of a response. Nancy=20 -----Original Message-----=20 From: Spencer48@aol.com [mailto:Spencer48@aol.com]=20 Sent: Thursday, April 05, 2001 6:00 PM=20 To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20 Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] wbb=20 Nancy,=20 Here's how I see it. We are in a bear market, and I believe WON = has=20 said that stocks in bear markets should be given more leeway than the = same=20 stock would be given in a bull market. =20 The other reasons why I don't believe that the handle is too low = is=20 that: The last four days the stock has indeed declined. However, = the first=20 two were on significantly less than ADV (the 50 day moving average's = volume,=20 ie. Average Daily Volume) meaning to me that there weren't too many = sellers. =20 Additonally, the last two days it has declined on immense ADV. To me = this=20 says that the weak hands (who in the first two days wouldn't sell) = finally=20 capitulated. But, the huge volume suggests that institutions were = supporting=20 it. It is just below the fifty day MA (moving average) price line (by = the=20 way, I am using DG-Online to analyze WBB). WON says the fifty MA is=20 significant because that (and the 200 MA line) is where institutions = will=20 support a stock if they have faith in it. =20 The most significant point, I believe, is that (although I'm not = too=20 crazy about the fact that the stock fell today-but maybe it was just = having=20 an idiosyncratic day) it churned-down today-that is, it lost only 17 = cents on=20 huge volume (nearly 3X ADV). This says to me that buyers were coming = in to=20 support it, even though WBB is in the midst of a deep decline (its = trend=20 seems to be down;however, this could just be the cup&handle chart = formation).=20 IBD has an article (I believe it's fairly recent) in the investors = corner=20 archives about down-day churns. IBD's conclusion is that a downday = churn=20 indicates that the stock is being supported by institutions.=20 While WBB may indeed be a weak stock, I think if we were in a = bull=20 market, it's the kind of stock that would take off. The annual EPS = this year=20 and next year are 14 and 9%, respectively. Moreover, its ROE is 17%. = The=20 only downside (besides the fact that it's in a bear market) is that = debt is=20 208%, but its industry is construction, and so I don't believe that's = out of=20 line. Also, its growth rate/PE is 19/6-so it has not only a lo PE (6), = its=20 growth rate/PE ratio is superior-and this is particularly significant = because it EPS is over $4.50 (I say this because many brokers-how = about you,=20 Tom?-believe if the growth rate outpaces the PE than the stock is=20 undervalued). It also has a nice up-trending relative strength = line-this=20 indicates that in the past it has been stronger than the market. And = its=20 February and March troughs were met with a strong divergence in this=20 comparitive RS line.=20 Because of these reasons I believe WBB should be watched and = considered=20 as a Canslim candidate-not discarded. 26 seems to be the support area = too=20 watch. WBB closed at 28.18. Its BO pivot point is at, I believe, 32 = 1/8. =20 However, even if it crossed its pivot, I don't believe I'd buy it. = However,=20 that decision would not be because of the stock, but rather because of = the=20 stock market-I believe we are still in a bear.=20 Jans=20 =20 In a message dated 4/5/2001 12:14:19 PM Eastern Daylight Time,=20 NDiFabio@irell.com writes:=20 << Should I be worried about the handle on WBB? Has it fallen too = low?=20 =20 Nancy >>=20 -=20 -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com"=20 -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or=20 -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email.=20 "WorldSecure " made the following annotations on 04/05/01 18:10:56 = - -------------------------------------------------------------------------= - ----- PLEASE NOTE: This message, including any attachments, may include = privileged, confidential and/or inside information. Any distribution or = use of this communication by anyone other than the intended recipient(s) = is strictly prohibited and may be unlawful. If you are not the intended = recipient, please notify the sender by replying to this message and then = delete it from your system. Thank you. = =3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D= =3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D= =3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D= =3D=3D=3D - ------=_NextPart_000_00A4_01C0BE1D.E11BD300 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable RE: [CANSLIM] wbb
Never, Nancy. The only question not worthy of some = kind of=20 response is the one not asked!  Take note, you lurkers. You should = know by=20 now that there is not much I will not answer.
 
Sorry I am home so late, Nancy, had a Homeowners = Assn meeting=20 to attend (yeah, there are occasionally other issues that can actually = get my=20 attention besides the markets) or you would have heard from me=20 sooner.

Tom Worley
stkguru@netside.net
ICQ #=20 5568838
 
 
----- Original Message -----
From:=20 DiFabio,=20 Nancy
To: 'canslim@lists.xmission.com' =
Sent: Thursday, April 05, 2001 = 9:12=20 PM
Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] = wbb


Thank you, Spencer for taking the time to provide me = with all=20 this information. 

During that long silence prior to hearing from Hugh, = I thought=20 that the group did not esteem my   question to be worthy of = a=20 response.

Nancy
-----Original=20 Message-----
From: Spencer48@aol.com [mailto:Spencer48@aol.com] =
Sent: Thursday, April 05, 2001 6:00 PM
To:=20 canslim@lists.xmission.com
Subject: Re: = [CANSLIM]=20 wbb


Nancy,

     Here's how I see it.  = We are in=20 a bear market, and I believe WON has
said = that stocks=20 in bear markets should be given more leeway than the same =
stock would be given in a bull market. 

     The other reasons why I = don't believe=20 that the handle is too low is
that:  = The last=20 four days the stock has indeed  declined.  However, the = first=20
two were on significantly less than ADV (the = 50 day=20 moving average's volume,
ie. Average Daily = Volume)=20 meaning to me that there weren't too many sellers.  =
Additonally, the last two days it has declined on immense = ADV.  To=20 me this
says that the weak hands (who in the = first two=20 days wouldn't sell) finally
capitulated.  But,=20 the huge volume suggests that institutions were supporting =
it.  It is just below the fifty day MA (moving average) = price line=20 (by the
way, I am using DG-Online to analyze = WBB).  WON says the fifty MA is
significant=20 because that (and the 200 MA line) is where institutions will =
support a stock if they have faith in it. 

     The most significant point, = I=20 believe, is that (although I'm not too
crazy = about the=20 fact that the stock fell today-but maybe it was just having =
an idiosyncratic day) it churned-down today-that is, it lost = only 17=20 cents on
huge volume (nearly 3X ADV).  = This says=20 to me that buyers were coming in to
support = it, even=20 though WBB is in the midst of a deep decline (its trend =
seems to be down;however, this could just be the = cup&handle chart=20 formation).
 IBD has an article (I = believe it's=20 fairly recent) in the investors corner
archives about=20 down-day churns. IBD's conclusion is that a downday churn =
indicates that the stock is being supported by = institutions.=20

     While WBB may indeed be a = weak stock,=20 I think if we were in a bull
market, it's = the kind of=20 stock that would take off.  The annual EPS this year =
and next year are 14 and 9%, respectively. Moreover, its ROE = is=20 17%.  The
only downside (besides the = fact that=20 it's in a bear market) is that debt is
208%, = but its=20 industry is construction, and so I don't believe that's out of=20
line. Also, its growth rate/PE is 19/6-so it = has not=20 only a lo PE (6), its
growth rate/PE ratio = is=20 superior-and this is  particularly significant
because it EPS is over $4.50 (I say this because many = brokers-how about=20 you,
Tom?-believe if the growth rate = outpaces the PE=20 than the stock is
undervalued). It also has = a nice=20 up-trending relative strength line-this
indicates that=20 in the past it has been stronger than the market.  And its=20
February and March troughs were met with a = strong=20 divergence in this
comparitive RS = line.

     Because of these reasons I = believe=20 WBB should be watched and considered
as a = Canslim=20 candidate-not discarded. 26 seems to be the support area too =
watch. WBB closed at 28.18.  Its BO pivot point is at, I = believe,=20 32 1/8. 
However, even if it crossed = its pivot, I=20 don't believe I'd buy it.  However,
that decision=20 would not be because of the stock, but rather because of the =
stock market-I believe we are still in a bear.

Jans

     



In a message dated 4/5/2001 12:14:19 PM Eastern = Daylight Time,=20
NDiFabio@irell.com writes:

<< Should I be worried about the handle on = WBB? =20 Has it fallen too low?
  =
 Nancy >>

-
-To = subscribe/unsubscribe, email=20 "majordomo@xmission.com"
-In the email body, = write=20 "subscribe canslim" or
-"unsubscribe = canslim". =20 Do not use quotes in your email.

"WorldSecure <irell.com>" made the following
annotations = on=20 04/05/01=20 = 18:10:56
-------------------------------------------------------------= - -----------------
PLEASE=20 NOTE: This message, including any attachments, may include privileged, = confidential and/or inside information. Any distribution or use of = this=20 communication by anyone other than the intended recipient(s) is = strictly=20 prohibited and may be unlawful. If you are not the intended recipient, = please=20 notify the sender by replying to this message and then delete it from = your=20 system. Thank=20 = you.


=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D= =3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D= =3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D= =3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D

- ------=_NextPart_000_00A4_01C0BE1D.E11BD300-- - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ End of canslim-digest V2 #1259 ****************************** To unsubscribe to canslim-digest, send an email to "majordomo@xmission.com" with "unsubscribe canslim-digest" in the body of the message. For information on digests or retrieving files and old messages send "help" to the same address. Do not use quotes in your message.