From: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com (canslim-digest) To: canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Subject: canslim-digest V2 #134 Reply-To: canslim Sender: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Errors-To: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Precedence: bulk canslim-digest Tuesday, March 3 1998 Volume 02 : Number 134 In this issue: Re: [CANSLIM] Big Cap Tech Stocks [CANSLIM] RCMT - Breakout RE: [CANSLIM] Callaway Golf? [CANSLIM] World Markets [CANSLIM] Re: ACRT and MTY - The Napeague Letter RE: [CANSLIM] SFSK action [CANSLIM] Re: 401k options [CANSLIM] THQI [CANSLIM] Accessing the discussion canslim archives... [CANSLIM] KELL [CANSLIM] TMBS Re: [CANSLIM] Callaway Golf? Re: [CANSLIM] TMBS [CANSLIM] Re: canslim-digest V2 #133 RE: [CANSLIM] SFSK action Re: [CANSLIM] TMBS [CANSLIM] Screening result. [CANSLIM] EPIQ RE: [CANSLIM] SFSK action Re: [CANSLIM] quiet times [CANSLIM] TNFI Re: [CANSLIM] TMBS RE: [CANSLIM] SFSK action Re: [CANSLIM] TMBS Re: [CANSLIM] Re: canslim-digest V2 #133 Re: [CANSLIM] EPIQ ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Date: Tue, 03 Mar 1998 05:35:38 GMT From: musicant@autobahn.org (Dan Musicant) Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Big Cap Tech Stocks On Mon, 02 Mar 1998 22:55:37 -0600, you wrote: :Maybe its just me, but I've been noticing that (aside from DELL) :the Large Cap tech stocks are hitting a rough spot. I watch :MSFT, SUNW, INTC, and some others. These 3 illustrate my point. :We've had a couple fading days. I actually own INTC - with a :stop at 83. If SUNW pierces 44 on the downside or INTC pierces :83 on the downside, that would be an indicator for me to sell :a good chunk of my tech holdings - even the ones doing well. :Why? These 3 stocks tend to be leaders. DELL is too... but I :wouldn't touch it - its too extended for me. : :Just some musings as I check my indicators tonight. : :Dave Cameron Dell was well down today for a change. On PBS they called it "profit taking in the techs". "Profit taking"... I think this term is overused. Dell looked very tempting to me when it was hanging around 80 to 85. It may still be a winner at this point. MSFT also looked good (in retrospect) when it dipped to the low 120's when all that stuff was in the media about them claiming they couldn't separate the Internet Explorer stuff from Windows 95. Now they've done their latest split and have had one bad day, but also up around 40% or more from the low of recent months. I saw SUNW pointed out as a likely winner not too long ago and INTC? I saw it put forth as a longterm winner, but I saw a guy on PBS the other day claim it was a candidate for a shortterm short good for 10 to 15%, and with the action of the last couple of days, I have to say it looks like he was right on it! It's half way there already.=20 Dan - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 02 Mar 1998 08:03:13 -0500 From: "Frank V. Wolynski" Subject: [CANSLIM] RCMT - Breakout RCMT - RCM Technologies broke out to NH's Friday on volume. Eps/Rs 90/92 U/D Vol 1.6 Float 3.4mil Funds 26% Mgmt 41% Group RS 90, the whole group popped last week. Comml Serv-Staffing. Currently ranked 20 and climbing. Earnings due 3/3. Should handly beat last yr qtr by over 100%. Frank Wolynski ( I am often wrong, please plan accordingly!) - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 2 Mar 1998 22:19:41 -0800 From: Mike Lucero Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Callaway Golf? Investor's Business Daily ranks stocks from 1-99. These are percentiles comparing the stock against the whole stock universe. EPS rank is the earnings rank RS is the relative strength rank Mike On Monday, March 02, 1998 9:16 PM, Ravi Raman [SMTP:rsr143@psu.edu] wrote: > Thank you so much. I will check the book out at a local library. By the way, > what does RS mean? > > Tom Worley wrote: > > > Ravi, > > Welcome to the group, I hate to be the bearer of sad tidings, but Calloway > > is not a good CANSLIM candidate even without the latest news. First, RS is > > only 34, way under the 80 or better you should be looking for. Second, EPS > > is 68, also well under the 80 or better you should seek. In today's trading, > > the stock gapped down 3 9/16, a drop of over 11%, so that should tell you > > how seriously the mkt weighs a disappointment in earnings. Add to that a 25 > > cent "miss" means over a 10% drop in full year expectations, and ........ > > > > The one saving grace (if you want to call it that) is the trailing PE is now > > only 17, and forecasted earnings had already been reduced, so a lot of the > > expectation had already been stripped out of the price. Having been a > > broker, and participated when this company went public, I remember well all > > the hoopla over Big Bertha. Unfortunately, it's not enought to deliver a > > good product, a co must also deliver the earnings expected (or usually beat > > them). > > > > I doubt this stock is going anywhere except south for some time. I would > > suggest you spend $20 on Wm O'Neill's book "How To Make Money In Stocks", > > and consider the remaining value you have in ELY as "dead capital". You will > > have to decide what's best for you in either holding a further loss for > > another six months in hopes of some recovery or else taking the loss and > > using the money for a better opportunity. But the book should educate you > > better in making that decision, as well as picking more rewarding stocks in > > the future. > > > > Any statements or opinions are strictly my own and not that of my employer. > > My comments should not be interpreted as a recommendation of any kind. I am > > a licensed (inactive) broker and an active investor. All investors should do > > their own research prior to any investment, especially one learned about on > > the Internet. Hopefully my comments will better inform and educate all > > investors. > > tom w > > -----Original Message----- > > From: Ravi Raman > > To: Canslim Investment Listserve > > Date: Monday, March 02, 1998 11:21 PM > > Subject: [CANSLIM] Callaway Golf? > > > > >Hi, > > > > > >I am fairly new to investing and just joined this list a few hours ago. > > > > > >By joining I help to educate myself about how to make prudent investment > > >decisions. > > > > > >I own stock in Callaway Golf[ELY]. The company is an industry leader and > > >has been performing well for the last 2 weeks(though it is still > > >slightly under my sept purchase price. They recently announced that they > > >were going to miss their March earnings estimates due to the "Asian > > >Flu". They said they could miss by as much as .25/share! > > > > > >My question is: should I hold the stock or sell it and buy it after a > > >drop? The company seems very solid in the golf industry, will the stock > > >drop due to panic by investors or is missing an earnings estimate really > > >that big of a deal? The long term outlook seems fine for callaway golf. > > > > > >thank you for reading my seemingly rudimentary question. > > > > > > > > >-- > > >________________________________________________________ > > >Ravi S. Raman-rsr143@psu.edu > > >Penn State University-www.psu.edu > > >________________________________________________________ > > >PSU Triathlon Club-Webmaster:www.clubs.psu.edu/triclub.psu.edu > > >Business Student Council-Events Committee Co-Chair > > >Finance Club-Communications Chair > > >________________________________________________________ > > > > > > > > > > > >- > > > > > > > - > > > > -- > ________________________________________________________ > Ravi S. Raman-rsr143@psu.edu > Penn State University-www.psu.edu > ________________________________________________________ > PSU Triathlon Club-Webmaster:www.clubs.psu.edu/triclub.psu.edu > Business Student Council-Events Committe Co-Chair > Finance Club-Communications Chair > ________________________________________________________ > > > > > - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 2 Mar 1998 08:28:53 -0500 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] World Markets Asia had a mixed day, altho Japan back over 17000 and the yen up strongly. Europe is up across the board and holding. Futures however were not strong and now weakening with NASDAQ 100 now down fractionally. I would expect a positive opening but likely only 10 - 20 pts, and may weaken after that on profit taking. UN Security Council expected to vote on the Iraq resolution today, passage expected. Zippergate is being featured more in the news with Slick Willie admitting a "relationship", but not a sexual one, with Monica. And the personal attacks on Staar (so far no one seems to have caught him lying, then having to admit he lied) are picking up, thus generating even more news. Any statements or opinions are strictly my own and not that of my employer. My comments should not be interpreted as a recommendation of any kind. I am a licensed (inactive) broker and an active investor. All investors should do their own research prior to any investment, especially one learned about on the Internet. Hopefully my comments will better inform and educate all investors. tom w - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 02 Mar 1998 01:14:09 -0500 From: Craig Griffin Subject: [CANSLIM] Re: ACRT and MTY - The Napeague Letter Hi all, Many of you may be familiar with the Napeague letter published by Bob Davis. Mr. Davis is an investor who seems to enjoy researching small cap and microcap stocks and publishing his opinion of those he selects. He uses a great deal of fundamental analysis as well as a bit of astute technical analysis. I have been following several of his recommended stocks and most are somewhat mediocre performers so far (due to the long term horizon necessary for value investing, perhaps). I do expect 1 or 2 or 3 of his picks to make some decent progress this year. MTY in particular looks like a "Canslim colt" to me, to coin a phrase, (under $12/share, but pretty solid Canslim numbers - wobbles on his legs, but might grow up to be a racehorse - or a nag). Mr. Davis also has a review of ACRT's trading over the past year - based on fundamental valuation and what appears to have been a "bear raid" on the stock. I found the article VERY insightful. It provides some additional reasons (beyond such things as a climax run) why a "Canslim stock" with good news can decline precipitously and suddenly (for example: overvaluation, short sellers, potential bad news feared from investors scanning the horizon, etc.). Overvaluation/undervaluation is not directly a Canslim factor of course, but many investors do invest based entirely on valuation models. These investors are a big force that often provide solid Canslim stocks with launch pads from their first stage bases as well as providing selling on the way up to the ultimate highs. Mr. Davis' description of a bear raid and some internet postings by a "Mr. Pink" are also eye openers. If you read the monthly table provided by Mr. Davis of "average trading days sold short" and compare it to price action, one can extrapolate that the rapid advance in ACRT's price from 07/18/97 to 07/31/97 was a short squeeze. I base this conclusion on the precipitous drop in short figures the following month (although Mr. Davis does not specifically refer to this price action in his article). Many of you who were on the Canslim list in July/August 97 may remember my wondering about that particular advance in ACRT at the time. Lots of cool stuff here. Mr. Davis apparently does it all as a sort of hobby, so his site and email newsletter are free. Take a look at the following URL for the ACRT article ---> http://www.napeague.com/acrt-discussion.html Best regards, Craig - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 2 Mar 1998 23:14:26 -0800 From: Mike Lucero Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] SFSK action Well, I held this until 2/26 when it bounced back up from 60 again, but on lower volume. I don't regret selling it, since it was probably a poor buy, with high fund ownership and PE, as Tom mentioned, plus a breakout from a 4th stage base (which WON says to avoid because of the tendency to crash afterwards.) Still, I need to work on selling correctly. I prematurely set my stops above the pivot point and was stopped out of ABF, MLHR and THRX. I bought back ABF and MLHR, but THRX got away from me. I'm seeing the wisdom of not using hard stops, since being shaken-out feels so bad. Mike On Monday, February 09, 1998 4:56 PM, Tom Worley [SMTP:stkguru@netside.net] wrote: > The breakout appears to have stalled on very heavy volume, today being no > exception. Earnings are due 2/20. RS line also shows a small downtrend for > past several days. Closed today near its low of the day on nearly twice avg > daily vol. Funds have 44%, and PE trailing is 50. Support and 50 dma line > both around 55, so looks to have about a $5 downside from here, having > already given up $5 of the breakout. If I owned it close to the base of 55, > I would probably hang on and try to weather out the selling pressure (then > again I still own SOCR and MSON, so what does that tell you?? However, I > also still own EPIQ as well despite being up 32% so far!). If I had bot it > as it was breaking out of the base at 55, say at 57 or 58, I would be more > likely to heed the high PE and recent trading trend, and watch it carefully > tomorrow. Any further erosion in that case and I would likely be history on > this one. > > Any statements or opinions are strictly my own and not that of my employer. > My comments should not be interpreted as a recommendation of any kind. I am > a licensed (inactive) broker and an active investor. All investors should do > their own research prior to any investment, especially one learned about on > the Internet. Hopefully my comments will better inform and educate all > investors. > tom w > -----Original Message----- > From: Mike Lucero > To: 'canslim@lists.xmission.com' > Date: Monday, February 09, 1998 3:52 PM > Subject: [CANSLIM] SFSK action > > > >SFSK has been at 60 all day. I feel like that's a bad thing, although it > >looks like some big money is supporting it there. Does it look about to > >break down? > > > >Thanks, > > > >Mike Lucero > > > >- > > > > > > - - ------------------------------ Date: Sun, 01 Mar 1998 19:07:56 -0700 From: Tim Fisher Subject: [CANSLIM] Re: 401k options At 08:02 PM 3/1/98 -0500, you wrote: >Timothy, for shame, you call yourself a lawyer and consider that to be a >"long winded introduction"?? You didn't even cover your tenth of an hour!! > >Anyway, enough lawyer bashing, welcome to the group. As to your 401, I agree >and share your frustration. I have seen to date few 401 plans that manage to >even compare neutrally with mkt conditions. I think the basic problem is the >administrators are so conservative in protecting the capital. The worst of >these are the "private" ones where it takes them nearly the full qtr to tell >you how you did the prior qtr, and then barely have time to make any >decisions for the next qtr. The best are the ones that use publicly traded >mutual funds, and allow you to change your investments on a daily basis. But >even there you are limited to the funds offered by the plan, and they're not >always the best. I do encourage people nonetheless to use their 401 plan, >esp if there is any corp matching. This can often offset the poor >performance of the funds available. > Or do as I did: pester your plan administrator into getting a 401k with a firm that hooks up with a brokerage house and lets you trade your contributions. We got Diversified Investment Advisors and they offer a Personal Choice Retirement Account wherein I can transfer my contributions to Schwab and do what I like with them. Tim Fisher, 1995 President, Pacific Fishery Biologists Ore-ROCK-On Rockhounding Web Site PFB Information tfish@spiritone.com WWW http://www.spiritone.com/~tfish -- See naked fish and rocks! - - ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 03 Mar 1998 06:18:16 -0500 From: Jeffry White <"postwhit@sover.net"@sover.net> Subject: [CANSLIM] THQI Dave wrote: ate: Mon, 02 Mar 1998 22:51:31 -0600 From: Dave Cameron Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] THQI Jeffry White wrote (in response to Zoran): > As an example, let's track THQI. Initially, pull up a 3 month chart, or > shorter. If you'd been stalking this thing, like some who've posted > here before the breakout, those two indicators (along with the volume > spike) gave you a clear, low risk entry point on February 18 to buy > after the opening the following day. Now, let's watch the volume dry up > after this breakout and see where the stochastics and 3/7/10 EMA are at > the point where you would ordinarily be inclined to take an initial > position. I find that using volume alone, I was often early or wrong. > These indicators help avoid a bit of the guessing, but it still comes > down to using one's "neural network", as you say. > I do find this interesting, because I would never have bought THQI on Feb 18. Why? It closed at almost a new high - but it didn't quite match its previous high. Granted there was a lot of volume, but it could have been a double top. The breakout on 2/22(?) on higher volume would have brought it into my range if I wasn't already as invested as I care to be. But... I believe a CANSLIMer with money could have bought a couple days before the BIG news simply by using price/volume. They would have missed the first $1.50 of the move - but picked up the subsequent $5. I'd take that... However, I certainly see your point! Dave Cameron > Jeffry Thanks for your comments, Dave. I'm glad you see my point. I'm still experimenting with the indicators, but they seem to work extremely well. Not every time, of course, but many. Hope you will keep watching them, I could use some feedback. - - ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 03 Mar 1998 08:00:06 -0700 From: jeff@scrooge.csd.sdl.usu.edu (Jeff Salisbury) Subject: [CANSLIM] Accessing the discussion canslim archives... >From time to time, CANSLIM members may wish to browse the discussion archives. This posting provides instructions on how to access the archives. Thanks to David Cameron for compiling the essentials of this message. Here are the two ways to access the archives: 1. (BEST way) via your web browser at: ftp://ftp.xmission.com/pub/lists/canslim/ Click on either "archive" or "latest" and browse away. 2. (Not as convenient) via email: Send an email to majordomo@xmission.com with the following as the body of your message: "index canslim". Then send a follow up email to request an old email from either the "archive" or "latest" directory. Note that your request must be in the body of your email. For example: "get canslim latest/001" will retrieve file "001" from the "latest" directory. "get canslim archive/v01.n066" will retrieve file "v01.n066" from the "archive" dir. Best Regards, Jeff Salisbury - CANSLIM list owner/admin - - ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 3 Mar 1998 10:51:31 -0500 From: olafur.josefsson@analog.com (Oli Josefsson) Subject: [CANSLIM] KELL One of my core holdings seems to be breaking out of a W type of base. I used the opportunity to add some more. I do not have the CANSLIM stats with me here at work but they look pretty good. My only problem with the stock is that the insider ownership is only 7%. I am interested in hearing people's opinions about Kellstom (KELL) from a technical standpoint. Today it is one of the very few stocks that I track that is up. Oli - - ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 03 Mar 1998 10:06:42 -0600 From: Dave Cameron Subject: [CANSLIM] TMBS Well... with all the talk about TMBS - it must have opened down substantially this morning. It was at 18-1/4 2 days ago, and I got shaken out at 16 today. Anyone else get shaken out? Dave Cameron - - ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 3 Mar 1998 08:22:48 -0800 From: "Patrick Wahl" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Callaway Golf? > I own stock in Callaway Golf[ELY]. The company is an industry leader and > has been performing well for the last 2 weeks(though it is still > slightly under my sept purchase price. They recently announced that they > were going to miss their March earnings estimates due to the "Asian > Flu". They said they could miss by as much as .25/share! > > My question is: should I hold the stock or sell it and buy it after a > drop? The company seems very solid in the golf industry, will the stock > drop due to panic by investors or is missing an earnings estimate really > that big of a deal? The long term outlook seems fine for callaway golf. I think Tom already gave you some good comments on this one. I just thought I would add that the chart looks pretty lousy, it peaked back in July and has been heading down ever since. As far as buying a stock after a drop, I hope no one on this list would tell you to do that. At least, not any CANSLIM stocks. That's a value deal which we don't try in the CANSLIM world. I think that besides Asian problems, ELY said El Nino has hurt their sales - rain in CA, no one is golfing, etc. - - ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 3 Mar 1998 18:28:04 +0200 From: "David S. Pinhasik" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] TMBS Dave, what "talk" have you heard about TMBS? Any bad news that caused the drop? I am not shaken out yet, I bought at 16 1/16 and my stop is 8% below. Wha= t's going on? The volume according to yahoo quotes is 146k. According to Tom'= s post about the ADV being about 120K (Yahoo says 64K) , what is the market telling us, or perhaps shouting at us to do? My gut feeling is to get out quick, but perhaps this is again just regula= r profit taking, against the backdrop of generally poor NASDAQ performance lately. Help. David - -----Original Message----- From: Dave Cameron To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Date: =E9=E5=ED =F9=EC=E9=F9=E9 03 =EE=F8=F5 1998 18:09 Subject: [CANSLIM] TMBS >Well... with all the talk about TMBS - it must have opened down substantially >this morning. It was at 18-1/4 2 days ago, and I got shaken out at 16 today. >Anyone else get shaken out? > >Dave Cameron > >- > > - - ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 03 Mar 1998 09:00:35 -0600 (CST) From: douglas gregor Subject: [CANSLIM] Re: canslim-digest V2 #133 You know my views on CANSLIM. I feel that it's a great way to analyze stocks. IFS is an average stock. You'll make money in IFS over the long run. Some other stocks I might add to your list are KEA, QWST, CPWR, and SAPHY (SAP). These are very strong stocks with an excellent track record so far. Do a little analysis of these stocks and let me know what you think? SAPHY (GREAT!), KEA (GREAT) looks like a great takeover canadidate, CPWR (GREAT!), QWST (GREAT) laying the digital and can only grow! Can I also add... most of the stocks mentioned do not get effected by the corrections in the market, and during the corrections the price creeps up. These stocks might not be CANSLIM candidates, but worth analyzing. Don't forget market direction! which I must add... during the corrections are great times to buy! Let me know what you think... good and the bad! Douglas Gregor dgregor@mcs.net http://www.mcs.net/~dgregor/Wyzer.html _____________________________________ - - ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 03 Mar 1998 09:00:11 -0800 From: Tim Fisher Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] SFSK action At 11:14 PM 3/2/98 -0800, you wrote: >Well, I held this until 2/26 when it bounced back up from 60 again, but on >lower volume. I don't regret selling it, since it was probably a poor buy, >with high fund ownership and PE, as Tom mentioned, plus a breakout from a >4th stage base (which WON says to avoid because of the tendency to crash >afterwards.) > I don't get it. Where's the problem with Safeskin? It's basing nicely above 60 after it's latest run from the base at 55. That base was 6 weeks long. The current base looks to be forming up with about the same volatility. You would be hard pressed to find a better-behaved stock for the past 2-year period! Tim Fisher / tfish@spiritone.com Ore-Rock-On and Pacific Fishery Biologists WWW Sites: http://www.spiritone.com/~tfish See naked fish and rocks! - - ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 03 Mar 1998 09:00:37 -0800 From: Tim Fisher Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] TMBS IMHO, it doesn't matter what the ADV is except on breakouts. Look at the candlestick chart. It advances on rising volume and falls on declining volume, and volume dries up when it bases. I.e. it's pretty well-behaved. Today's drop so far is on declining volume from the peak of 400k at the end of the rise last week (162k so far). If the volume gets bigger than 3-400k I'd say the selloff was feeding on itself and it's time to get out. Like Tom says it's a cheapie and although not thinly traded lately, it has been (thus the discrepancy between the ADV figures; I suspect Yahoo uses a longer baseline than DGO) and it's definitely a microcap at 116m cap. Therefore you need to give it some room to move around. It doesn't matter where you bought in at; the nearest support is around 14 and that could be considered weak support, but if I had a stop on it it would be around= 13-7/8.=20 If you want to see a failed breakout look at CDT; I'm out of this one with a loss ;( At 06:28 PM 3/3/98 +0200, you wrote: >Dave, what "talk" have you heard about TMBS? Any bad news that caused the >drop? >I am not shaken out yet, I bought at 16 1/16 and my stop is 8% below.= What's >going on? The volume according to yahoo quotes is 146k. According to Tom's >post about the ADV being about 120K (Yahoo says 64K) , what is the market >telling us, or perhaps shouting at us to do? >My gut feeling is to get out quick, but perhaps this is again just regular >profit taking, against the backdrop of generally poor NASDAQ performance >lately. > >Help. > >David > >-----Original Message----- >From: Dave Cameron >To: canslim@lists.xmission.com >Date: =E9=E5=ED =F9=EC=E9=F9=E9 03 =EE=F8=F5 1998 18:09 >Subject: [CANSLIM] TMBS > > >>Well... with all the talk about TMBS - it must have opened down >substantially >>this morning. It was at 18-1/4 2 days ago, and I got shaken out at 16 >today. >>Anyone else get shaken out? >> >>Dave Cameron >> Tim Fisher / tfish@spiritone.com Ore-Rock-On and Pacific Fishery Biologists WWW Sites: http://www.spiritone.com/~tfish See naked fish and rocks! - - ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 03 Mar 98 09:19:00 PST From: Chih Yu Chao Subject: [CANSLIM] Screening result. Hi, good day, Made a CS screening over the weekend, the results are: SAPE, KEA, IMRS, ADVP, HCFP, CHRZ, TGIC, STAF, PPD. Some other stocks which you might have interests: TOC, DTRX, EONE I also checked some stocks that had heavy insider buying that might interest you, too. ;-) MDM, MRM, GPI, ENR, IDTI(Yes, IDTI) Happy trading/investing. ChihYu - - ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 03 Mar 1998 13:14:00 -0500 From: Jeffry White Subject: [CANSLIM] EPIQ Tom, you wrote: > While I was ready to reenter EPIQ, and it did sell off on the open as I > expected, I did not buy it back. I wanted to pick it up in the low 14 dollar > range, and just as I was ready to do so, one broker in my office gave me > orders for 4000 shares, which took priority. Never had a chance after that. > Will be watching tomorrow if we get any further selling on it. My preference > is to buy it in the 12 dollar level, but may be willing to pay high 13 or > low 14 depending on how it is trading. A couple of questions: Can you explain why you have chosen a "price" entry target in EPIQ, as opposed to a volume driven entry without regard to price. Also, why would you initiate a position in any stock after the "M" has given you a number of "distribution day" signal (most noticeably Friday) and the sentiment indicators are not favorable? Thanks for your time and thoughts. Jeffry - - ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 3 Mar 1998 10:15:59 -0800 (PST) From: Rolatzi Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] SFSK action Safeskin IMHO is too extended. It is begining to look tired and maybe topping out. The timeliness has moved from A to B this past week and the relative strength is beginning to decline. I'm considering shorting this baby if its numbers continue to decline. Ciao, Rich - ---Tim Fisher wrote: > > At 11:14 PM 3/2/98 -0800, you wrote: > >Well, I held this until 2/26 when it bounced back up from 60 again, but on > >lower volume. I don't regret selling it, since it was probably a poor buy, > >with high fund ownership and PE, as Tom mentioned, plus a breakout from a > >4th stage base (which WON says to avoid because of the tendency to crash > >afterwards.) > > > I don't get it. Where's the problem with Safeskin? It's basing nicely above > 60 after it's latest run from the base at 55. That base was 6 weeks long. > The current base looks to be forming up with about the same volatility. You > would be hard pressed to find a better-behaved stock for the past 2-year > period! > > > Tim Fisher / tfish@spiritone.com > Ore-Rock-On and Pacific Fishery Biologists WWW Sites: > http://www.spiritone.com/~tfish > See naked fish and rocks! > > - > > _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - - ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 3 Mar 1998 13:58:58 -0500 (EST) From: Zoran Mitrovski Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] quiet times Robert Urban wrote: > Zoran, > Would you or someone give a reference as to Elder's > ?book on the "Triple Screen"? Also, is the "quiet > retracement an intraday or day on day phenomenon? The book reference was given by Joe. "Quiet" could be monthly, weekly, daily, or intraday phenomenon. It all depends on what chart you are viewing. > What makes these events "quiet"? Low (or decreasing volume) and proper behavior which implies hiden sentiment that is opposite of the price movement. > When you talk about past precedence and especially > support/resistance are you referring to trend lines > day on day with ?closing prices or ? I am referring to ANYTHING that has historically been shown to influence price/volume behavior of the stock. The goal is to infer some knowledge about the structure and the character of the traders/investors that are watching the stock. > Which moving average(s) do you prefer in this instance? They differ depending on the stock and on my goals set for the trade. 20, 50, 100, 200 DMA (or EMA) are most widely watched. I prefer the MA that I conclude has been best respected as shown by the price/volume behavior. > How much high volume in relation to what? In relation to the most recent price action. Especially after large perturbing price/volume events 30 or 50 day volume averages lose their meaning. My goals is to watch price/price volume action on EVERY time scale and to infer the story on the buyers and sellers andf their motivations. How much of some volume was on the buy side? How much of some volume was on the sell side? Did most of the buyers on the strong up day actually manage to get rid of their holdings during the retracement? Did they want to? What (indicators) are they watching to make their buy/sell decisions? Many of these things can be infered from the precedents -- of course, up to a certain level of accuracy, but I'll take anything that would increase my chances for a successful trade. > Is the "something wrong point" referring to the possibility > of breaking through the support level in the underlining > trend line? Quite often, but not necessarily. Signs of "something's wrong" turn ON whenever the positive assumptions that I had taken into consideration when making the entry trade are shown to be wrong by the subsequent price/volume action. Example: If I had noticed 3 precedents where a stock touches the 50 dma on decreasing volume and goes up on increased volume immediately afterwards, I would give high weigth to the positive assumtion that it will happen again. The higher the cumulative weigth of the positive assumtions that get broken, the higher the probability of something wrong happening, the larger the position in the exit trade. > What calls your attention to such a stock? screen? Depending on how much time I have. This group does a good job of giving me good candidates to watch. After that I just watch them. Telescan and Quotes Plus seem to be very nice, I hear. > Thanks for your info in advance. I have been following the > discussions for 6 mos. and have learned a lot. I would > appreciate any comments others might have. Robert Urban I hope I helped. Zoran - - ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 3 Mar 1998 12:23:19 -0800 From: "Patrick Wahl" Subject: [CANSLIM] TNFI A stock mentioned in today's IBD, North Face(TNFI), looks pretty ripe for a potential breakout. Has high EPS and RS numbers, A/D is A. A breakout would be around 29-29 1/2. Avg Daily Volume is 276K. It is down today however, so no boost from IBD. - - ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 03 Mar 1998 14:38:31 -0600 From: Dave Cameron Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] TMBS Thanks for the comments to date on TMBS. I agree with Tim that the real base is just short of 15. I got in at 16-3/8 - and put a stop at 16. This is because I didn't want to lose too much, and the current range (last 2 weeks) has been tighter between 16-1/4 and 18. In fact, for the past couple of days, the stock had not been below 17-1/2 or so. Today, it dropped to about 15-5/8 sometime during the day, taking out my stop. Not a real big deal - that's why we have stops - but surprising to me. The volume is not really an issue. I just had an automatic stop order at 16. It got filled at 15-7/8. Dave Cameron - - ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 03 Mar 1998 13:02:20 -0800 From: Tim Fisher Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] SFSK action Well, we'll see who's right. I have a stop based on recent support around 55. I think that their Q1 earnings are going to blow away estimates, since estimates have not been changed to reflect the fact that they are getting their product, which is mfgr'ed in Thailand, at a hell of a discount. It's on my list of two or three to which I will add to my position if it breaks out while I have cash lying around. Also, they have the upcoming split and the acquisition of one of their competitors to factor in to future earnings. At 10:15 AM 3/3/98 -0800, you wrote: > > >Safeskin IMHO is too extended. It is begining to look tired and maybe >topping out. The timeliness has moved from A to B this past week and >the relative strength is beginning to decline. I'm considering >shorting this baby if its numbers continue to decline. > >Ciao, >Rich > Tim Fisher / tfish@spiritone.com Ore-Rock-On and Pacific Fishery Biologists WWW Sites: http://www.spiritone.com/~tfish See naked fish and rocks! - - ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 03 Mar 1998 16:53:22 -0700 From: Kirby Benson Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] TMBS > I jumped off at 18 and took a little profit.  I agree with Tim and others that > the support for TMBS is probably around 14.  Also, using one of Connie's > indicators on BigCharts (Money Flow) it is possible to see some divergence since > around Feb 5 or 6 to present.   Also, going back to mid Jan and drawing a > trendline up through mid Feb it was hard for me to see it going on up given that > the market is probably ready for some breathing room. >   Kirby Benson > -- Visit The Great White Trout Studios: http://www.zianet.com/kbenson/trout.html   - - ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 3 Mar 1998 20:19:00 -0500 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Re: canslim-digest V2 #133 Douglas, would agree that KEA and CPWR are worth considering, and would also agree with you that IFS and QWST "might not be CANSLIM candidates". RS on IFS is only 65 with EPS at 75, and I also note seven incidents of insider selling, with no buys, recently. On Qwst, the RS (97) is fine however EPS is only 58. More significantly for me, the co earned 32 cents in 1997 and is forecast to LOSE 5 cents in 1998. No comment on SAPHY as it came up as an invalid symbol at DGO. Is this a new issue by chance? How about the name? Any statements or opinions are strictly my own and not that of my employer. My comments should not be interpreted as a recommendation of any kind. I am a licensed (inactive) broker and an active investor. All investors should do their own research prior to any investment, especially one learned about on the Internet. Hopefully my comments will better inform and educate all investors. tom w - -----Original Message----- From: douglas gregor To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Cc: canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Date: Tuesday, March 03, 1998 11:49 AM Subject: [CANSLIM] Re: canslim-digest V2 #133 > >You know my views on CANSLIM. I feel that it's a great way to analyze >stocks. IFS is an average stock. You'll make money in IFS over the long >run. Some other stocks I might add to your list are KEA, QWST, CPWR, and >SAPHY (SAP). These are very strong stocks with an excellent track record >so far. Do a little analysis of these stocks and let me know what you >think? SAPHY (GREAT!), KEA (GREAT) looks like a great takeover >canadidate, CPWR (GREAT!), QWST (GREAT) laying the digital and can only >grow! Can I also add... most of the stocks mentioned do not get effected >by the corrections in the market, and during the corrections the price >creeps up. These stocks might not be CANSLIM candidates, but worth >analyzing. Don't forget market direction! which I must add... during the >corrections are great times to buy! > >Let me know what you think... good and the bad! > >Douglas Gregor >dgregor@mcs.net >http://www.mcs.net/~dgregor/Wyzer.html >_____________________________________ > > > > > >- > - - ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 3 Mar 1998 20:49:08 -0500 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] EPIQ Answers/comments imbedded below: Any statements or opinions are strictly my own and not that of my employer. My comments should not be interpreted as a recommendation of any kind. I am a licensed (inactive) broker and an active investor. All investors should do their own research prior to any investment, especially one learned about on the Internet. Hopefully my comments will better inform and educate all investors. tom w - -----Original Message----- From: Jeffry White To: canslim@mail.xmission.com Date: Tuesday, March 03, 1998 1:11 PM Subject: [CANSLIM] EPIQ >Tom, you wrote: > >> While I was ready to reenter EPIQ, and it did sell off on the open as I >> expected, I did not buy it back. I wanted to pick it up in the low 14 dollar >> range, and just as I was ready to do so, one broker in my office gave me >> orders for 4000 shares, which took priority. Never had a chance after that. >> Will be watching tomorrow if we get any further selling on it. My preference >> is to buy it in the 12 dollar level, but may be willing to pay high 13 or >> low 14 depending on how it is trading. > >A couple of questions: > >Can you explain why you have chosen a "price" entry target in EPIQ, as >opposed to a volume driven entry without regard to price. The price "goal" is not immune from the volume and trading action. Because I can watch a stock (assuming I'm not busy) in real time, I can make some judgement calls on "how" it is trading, which reflects both price and volume action. In this case, I have found this stock to generally track right along the 10DMA. When it gets too far above this line, it tends to correct back to at least the 10DMA, and often to or thru the 50DMA. Add to this on its recent run up, it based for a week in the 14-15 range on good then declining volume, then broke out again. It was clear to me that this stock had gotten way ahead of itself on record setting volume. Thus a correction was in order, and I expected the first support to come in around 14-15. If that held, then it could move back up if the buy side volume was there. If that failed then I expected it to drop further to around the 12.5-13.5 level, where there had been better action and steady volume support. If the CS elements were not so sweet on this one (99, 99, A, A) then I would have thanked the stock gods, done my sacrificial offering, and moved on without looking at it again. But I viewed this stock as simply getting ahead of itself, having been discovered by the investment community several weeks (and dollars) after I found it. > >Also, why would you initiate a position in any stock after the "M" has >given you a number of "distribution day" signal (most noticeably Friday) >and the sentiment indicators are not favorable? I would disagree that either "M" or the stock had given me distributional signals. Volume remained extremely heavy, often 20-30 times ADV, it opened up almost consistently (in fact when it didn't it was a warning signal it was getting too pricey), and both NYSE and NASDAQ had weathered overbot conditions without the moving avg on down vol upticking, and had moved back to a neutral stance. > >Thanks for your time and thoughts. > >Jeffry > >- > - - ------------------------------ End of canslim-digest V2 #134 ***************************** To unsubscribe to canslim-digest, send an email to "majordomo@xmission.com" with "unsubscribe canslim-digest" in the body of the message. For information on digests or retrieving files and old messages send "help" to the same address. Do not use quotes in your message.