From: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com (canslim-digest) To: canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Subject: canslim-digest V2 #136 Reply-To: canslim Sender: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Errors-To: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Precedence: bulk canslim-digest Thursday, March 5 1998 Volume 02 : Number 136 In this issue: Re: [CANSLIM] Non-canslim (economics?) RE: [CANSLIM] yikes - intc warning Re: [CANSLIM] yikes - intc warning [CANSLIM] DHI [CANSLIM] Friday was a classic distribution day? Fw: [CANSLIM] yikes - intc warning RE: [CANSLIM] DHI Re: [CANSLIM] DHI Re: [CANSLIM] KVCO (was EPIQ) [CANSLIM] World Markets Re: [CANSLIM]"Tom Worley" Re: [CANSLIM] yikes - intc warning Re: [CANSLIM] World Markets RE: [CANSLIM] yikes - intc warning Re: [CANSLIM] yikes - intc warning RE: [CANSLIM] yikes - intc warning [CANSLIM] Markets overnight / INTC [CANSLIM] Intro: Bud Barton and question RE: [CANSLIM] DHI Re: [CANSLIM] yikes - intc warning RE: [CANSLIM] yikes - intc warning Re: [CANSLIM] Markets overnight / INTC Re: [CANSLIM] MSCA (was Intro: Bud Barton and question) [CANSLIM] Employment Report due Friday, 3/6/98; overall economics, bonds, gold, etc ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Date: Wed, 04 Mar 1998 18:46:14 -0700 From: Tim Fisher Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Non-canslim (economics?) You may be too late. A friend was told to lock last Friday as rates went up in our area on Monday and are expected to go up further into the hot home buying period in the spring. At 07:20 PM 3/4/98 -0500, you wrote: >To the group, I was wondering where the group sees mortgage interest >rates going(rise or fall)? I watched the bond market rise today as the >stock market slumped. In addition, I have been watching the FED as well >as Greenspan's presentation on the Hill. I am settling on a home in 30 >days, and would appreciate the groups economic insight. > "To Lock(in) or not to Lock...That is my quest" Thanks in advance! > Jerry O'Malley Philadelphia, PA > Tim Fisher, 1995 President, Pacific Fishery Biologists Ore-ROCK-On Rockhounding Web Site PFB Information tfish@spiritone.com WWW http://www.spiritone.com/~tfish -- See naked fish and rocks! - - ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 4 Mar 1998 20:15:54 -0800 From: Mike Lucero Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] yikes - intc warning The last time this happened, I believe they took everyone by surprise by announcing it just before the market opened. Didn't a lot of tech stocks open sharply lower, and then bounce back up? At least this time, we could try to take advantage of the situation. Mike On Wednesday, March 04, 1998 3:08 PM, Tom Worley [SMTP:stkguru@netside.net] wrote: > How right you are Patrick. For once I'm glad I'm in cash. S&P500 down one > percent, but NASDAQ 100 already down over 2.5%. It's not a pretty picture. > As just one example of the fallout's range, DELL (which got battered Tuesday > on "profit taking" after the comments by CPQ on a tough pricing environment > in January, then managed to regain about half the loss closing down 4.5, > then today rallied on heavy volume to close up 7.75, was as a result of > INTC's news back down 7 in aftermkt trading to 131. I suspect aftermkt > trading will be worse than what we will see in regular day trading tomorrow, > but either way it's going to be ugly. Looks to me like the effects of the > Asian flu are finally being measured, just when the mkt was thinking it was > no big deal after all. > > Hope this chases some money into the small caps! > > Any statements or opinions are strictly my own and not that of my employer. > My comments should not be interpreted as a recommendation of any kind. I am > a licensed (inactive) broker and an active investor. All investors should do > their own research prior to any investment, especially one learned about on > the Internet. Hopefully my comments will better inform and educate all > investors. > tom w > -----Original Message----- > From: Patrick Wahl > To: canslim@lists.xmission.com > Date: Wednesday, March 04, 1998 4:31 PM > Subject: [CANSLIM] yikes - intc warning > > > After the market close, Intel warned of lower than expected earnings > in the first quarter. As a bellwether type stock, this probably > means bad things for tomorrow's market. The Globex S&P futures > quotes on the CME (www.cme.com) might give an idea of what is going > to happen on the open tomorrow. > > - > > > > > - - ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 4 Mar 1998 23:30:44 -0500 From: "Surindra Singh" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] yikes - intc warning Interesting concept. Look at this message at yahoo: http://messages.yahoo.com/bbs?action=m&board=yahoo.e4.06.4687857&topicid=0m2 &msgid=6dl772$5hc$1@m2.yahoo.com - -----Original Message----- From: Tom Worley To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Date: Wednesday, March 04, 1998 6:12 PM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] yikes - intc warning >How right you are Patrick. For once I'm glad I'm in cash. S&P500 down one >percent, but NASDAQ 100 already down over 2.5%. It's not a pretty picture. >As just one example of the fallout's range, DELL (which got battered Tuesday >on "profit taking" after the comments by CPQ on a tough pricing environment >in January, then managed to regain about half the loss closing down 4.5, >then today rallied on heavy volume to close up 7.75, was as a result of >INTC's news back down 7 in aftermkt trading to 131. I suspect aftermkt >trading will be worse than what we will see in regular day trading tomorrow, >but either way it's going to be ugly. Looks to me like the effects of the >Asian flu are finally being measured, just when the mkt was thinking it was >no big deal after all. > >Hope this chases some money into the small caps! > >Any statements or opinions are strictly my own and not that of my employer. >My comments should not be interpreted as a recommendation of any kind. I am >a licensed (inactive) broker and an active investor. All investors should do >their own research prior to any investment, especially one learned about on >the Internet. Hopefully my comments will better inform and educate all >investors. >tom w >-----Original Message----- >From: Patrick Wahl >To: canslim@lists.xmission.com >Date: Wednesday, March 04, 1998 4:31 PM >Subject: [CANSLIM] yikes - intc warning > > >After the market close, Intel warned of lower than expected earnings >in the first quarter. As a bellwether type stock, this probably >means bad things for tomorrow's market. The Globex S&P futures >quotes on the CME (www.cme.com) might give an idea of what is going >to happen on the open tomorrow. > >- > > > >- > - - ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 4 Mar 1998 23:19:31 -0500 From: "James Adams" Subject: [CANSLIM] DHI I haven't had the time to check the current CANSLIM #s, however a few weeks ago they were acceptable. DHI moving up on an upgrade by Alex Brown today. Vol/ADV 432,600/273,636 close at 23 3/16, up .18 I'm also researching the #s on these that I really like. PRCP, FOTO, CAST, PLCM RSC Any comments on these could save me some work..... TIA James Adams......................Maysville, KY USA http://www.cris.com/~jimadams/ Internet Pager 1343361@pager.mirabilis.com - - ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 04 Mar 1998 22:28:36 -0700 From: "Joe J." Subject: [CANSLIM] Friday was a classic distribution day? > From: Jeffry White <"postwhit@sover.net"@sover.net> > I just don't know what these have to do with WON's "M". Friday was a > classic "distribution day" in the NYSE, SP and Nasdaq and the Sentiment > numbers are lously, but not yet at 52 week marks. > Jeffery, why do you think of Friday as a classic distribution day. The NYSE's volume was down and the OEX advanced? I would view Wednesday's action as a distribution day - Market was down (NYSE) on increasing volume. Now, that hasn't happened in a while. Joe J. - - ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 5 Mar 1998 20:00:52 +1300 From: "Dean Edwards" Subject: Fw: [CANSLIM] yikes - intc warning Thanks for posting this information. "might give an idea of what is going to happen on the open tomorrow." Thats an understatement! You are too modest. The futures will definitely have an impact on tomorrow. There is an interesting article at http://www.adtrading.com/ titled "correlation". It looks at the dynamic price movements of futures, commodities, currencies, financials and stock indices. The correlation coefficient is an estimate of the degree to which two variables are related and is expressed as a number between 0 and 1. No relation is indicated by 0; a perfect relation is indicated by 1. In the article it goes on to state: "Often the European markets will have a tendency to mirror the previous day's performance of the US markets, but occasionally a significant trend starts in the European markets to be followed later that same day in the US markets; and other worldwide markets are sometimes the focus for the initiation of major market movements. " If you study the global market indices you can also get another indication of how the US market may trade the following day. http://quote.yahoo.com/m2 - -----Original Message----- From: Patrick Wahl To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Date: Thursday, March 05, 1998 10:34 AM Subject: [CANSLIM] yikes - intc warning After the market close, Intel warned of lower than expected earnings in the first quarter. As a bellwether type stock, this probably means bad things for tomorrow's market. The Globex S&P futures quotes on the CME (www.cme.com) might give an idea of what is going to happen on the open tomorrow. - - - - ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 5 Mar 1998 15:18:33 +0700 From: Peter Christiansen Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] DHI DHI is too far extended from a base to safely buy. The same goes for PLCM. The others don't look even remotely like CANSLIM candidates. Why do you "really like" them? Peter Christiansen Chiang Mai, Thailand - -----Original Message----- From: James Adams [SMTP:jimadams@may-uky.campus.mci.net] Sent: Thursday, March 05, 1998 11:20 AM To: Canslim Cc: Bill Shower Subject: [CANSLIM] DHI I haven't had the time to check the current CANSLIM #s, however a few weeks ago they were acceptable. DHI moving up on an upgrade by Alex Brown today. Vol/ADV 432,600/273,636 close at 23 3/16, up .18 I'm also researching the #s on these that I really like. PRCP, FOTO, CAST, PLCM RSC Any comments on these could save me some work..... 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"" &``````# ````````1@`````XA0```0````$````` A````'@`]``$````%````4D4Z( `````#``TT_3<``)'E ` end - - ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 5 Mar 1998 07:32:59 -0500 From: "James Adams" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] DHI From: Peter Christiansen >DHI is too far extended from a base to safely buy. The same goes for PLCM. > The others don't look even remotely like CANSLIM candidates. Why do you >"really like" them? Peter, my post was poorly worded. DHI is the only one that I remember meeting the CANSLIM criteria. The others I mentioned appeared after screening on Marketplayer.com. I was looking for =< $25, up trending 50DMA and MFlow, EPS =>25% for the past 3 qtrs. I am going look at IBD when it arrive this morning for the CANSLIM #s. I probably shouldn't have mentioned these until then. Sorry.... - - ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 5 Mar 1998 07:47:52 -0500 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] KVCO (was EPIQ) While the chart looks good, the most critical CS elements are lacking. RS is weak at 72, worse still is EPS at 32. There may be other flaws, I stopped looking after these two. Any statements or opinions are strictly my own and not that of my employer. My comments should not be interpreted as a recommendation of any kind. I am a licensed (inactive) broker and an active investor. All investors should do their own research prior to any investment, especially one learned about on the Internet. Hopefully my comments will better inform and educate all investors. tom w - -----Original Message----- From: Joe Scott To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Date: Wednesday, March 04, 1998 9:52 PM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] EPIQ >Tom, >Thanks, I'm on my way to look.. I 'm reading his book, and have tryed to >find a few Canslim canidates. This is one that might fit, only thing I've >been able to find, not having any screening capibilities. >KVCO see what you think. >joe > > > > >- > - - ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 5 Mar 1998 08:26:11 -0500 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] World Markets NASDAQ 100 still limit down at minus 30 pts, S&P500 slid a little further overnight, down about 1.5% which is in line with most European mkts so far. Asian markets look much like they did during the worst of the Asian flu crises, with 2 and 3% drops common, and some 6% or more. Germany seems to be doing the worst of the major European mkts, down nearly 2%. I would anticipate the US mkt being down in excess of 100 pts once all 30 of the Dow are trading. That's likely to take about 10 minutes of the mkt to happen. I do not expect ground lost today to be made up tomorrow. Any statements or opinions are strictly my own and not that of my employer. My comments should not be interpreted as a recommendation of any kind. I am a licensed (inactive) broker and an active investor. All investors should do their own research prior to any investment, especially one learned about on the Internet. Hopefully my comments will better inform and educate all investors. tom w - - ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 05 Mar 1998 07:35:18 -0600 From: JOHN ENGLAND Subject: Re: [CANSLIM]"Tom Worley" Tom in a earlier letter you said that dailey graphs is free at the present time and they will inform when they start to charge....... Thanks in advance..I also enjoy reading your infor that you type in the canslim list I've learn alot from your info. Thanx alot for your knowledge in the market. Tom Worley wrote: > While the chart looks good, the most critical CS elements are lacking. RS is > weak at 72, worse still is EPS at 32. There may be other flaws, I stopped > looking after these two. > > Any statements or opinions are strictly my own and not that of my employer. > My comments should not be interpreted as a recommendation of any kind. I am > a licensed (inactive) broker and an active investor. All investors should do > their own research prior to any investment, especially one learned about on > the Internet. Hopefully my comments will better inform and educate all > investors. > tom w > -----Original Message----- > From: Joe Scott > To: canslim@lists.xmission.com > Date: Wednesday, March 04, 1998 9:52 PM > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] EPIQ > > >Tom, > >Thanks, I'm on my way to look.. I 'm reading his book, and have tryed to > >find a few Canslim canidates. This is one that might fit, only thing I've > >been able to find, not having any screening capibilities. > >KVCO see what you think. > >joe > > > > > > > > > >- > > > > - - - ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 05 Mar 1998 13:56:42 GMT From: musicant@autobahn.org (Dan Musicant) Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] yikes - intc warning On Wed, 4 Mar 1998 23:30:44 -0500, you wrote: :Interesting concept. Look at this message at yahoo: : :http://messages.yahoo.com/bbs?action=3Dm&board=3Dyahoo.e4.06.4687857&top= icid=3D0m2 :&msgid=3D6dl772$5hc$1@m2.yahoo.com Surindra, When I try this address, I get the following at Yahoo: - - - - - Sorry, we can't process your request. You may want to check the URL and try again. Click the Back button on your browser to go back from whence you came. - - - - - - --Dan - - ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 5 Mar 1998 08:57:39 -0500 (EST) From: "Surindra J. Singh" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] World Markets It is interesting to watch how one major company's news of lower than expected earning can affect the world markets by as much as 6% downwards. I guess it is Christmas in march if you have money and wish to take advantage of the down market. Any ............................ Surindra On Thu, 5 Mar 1998, Tom Worley wrote: > NASDAQ 100 still limit down at minus 30 pts, S&P500 slid a little further > overnight, down about 1.5% which is in line with most European mkts so far. > Asian markets look much like they did during the worst of the Asian flu > crises, with 2 and 3% drops common, and some 6% or more. Germany seems to be > doing the worst of the major European mkts, down nearly 2%. > > I would anticipate the US mkt being down in excess of 100 pts once all 30 of > the Dow are trading. That's likely to take about 10 minutes of the mkt to > happen. I do not expect ground lost today to be made up tomorrow. > > Any statements or opinions are strictly my own and not that of my employer. > My comments should not be interpreted as a recommendation of any kind. I am > a licensed (inactive) broker and an active investor. All investors should do > their own research prior to any investment, especially one learned about on > the Internet. Hopefully my comments will better inform and educate all > investors. > tom w > > > - > > - - ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 5 Mar 1998 14:57:27 +0100 From: Derrick REAGINS Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] yikes - intc warning The correct url is: http://messages.yahoo.com/?action=m&board=yahoo.e4.06.4687857&topicid=0m 2&msgid=6auru3$dt5$1@m2.yahoo.com Derrick REAGINS dreagins@businessobjects.com > -----Original Message----- > From: musicant@autobahn.org [SMTP:musicant@autobahn.org] > Sent: Thursday, March 05, 1998 2:57 PM > To: canslim@lists.xmission.com > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] yikes - intc warning > > On Wed, 4 Mar 1998 23:30:44 -0500, you wrote: > > :Interesting concept. Look at this message at yahoo: > : > :http://messages.yahoo.com/bbs?action=m&board=yahoo.e4.06.4687857&topi > cid=0m2 > :&msgid=6dl772$5hc$1@m2.yahoo.com > > Surindra, > > When I try this address, I get the following at Yahoo: > - - - - > Sorry, we can't process your request. You may want to check the URL > and try again. > > Click the Back button on your browser to go back from whence you came. > - - - - > > > --Dan > > > > > - - - ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 5 Mar 1998 09:06:17 -0500 (EST) From: "Surindra J. Singh" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] yikes - intc warning Dan: Sorry! I am at work and do not have web access yet!! (primitive world), and can not confirm the address, but I will try to paste the message if possible in the evening. Someone on the yahoo message board calculated what it actually meant in terms of dollar amount, and came up with practically no loss in income per share of intel as I recall. Surindra On Thu, 5 Mar 1998, Dan Musicant wrote: > On Wed, 4 Mar 1998 23:30:44 -0500, you wrote: > > :Interesting concept. Look at this message at yahoo: > : > :http://messages.yahoo.com/bbs?action=m&board=yahoo.e4.06.4687857&topicid=0m2 > :&msgid=6dl772$5hc$1@m2.yahoo.com > > Surindra, > > When I try this address, I get the following at Yahoo: > - - - - > Sorry, we can't process your request. You may want to check the URL > and try again. > > Click the Back button on your browser to go back from whence you came. > - - - - > > > --Dan > > > > > - > > - - ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 5 Mar 1998 09:10:23 -0500 (EST) From: "Surindra J. Singh" Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] yikes - intc warning Thanks Derrick. Surindra On Thu, 5 Mar 1998, Derrick REAGINS wrote: > The correct url is: > http://messages.yahoo.com/?action=m&board=yahoo.e4.06.4687857&topicid=0m > 2&msgid=6auru3$dt5$1@m2.yahoo.com > > Derrick REAGINS > dreagins@businessobjects.com > > > -----Original Message----- > > From: musicant@autobahn.org [SMTP:musicant@autobahn.org] > > Sent: Thursday, March 05, 1998 2:57 PM > > To: canslim@lists.xmission.com > > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] yikes - intc warning > > > > On Wed, 4 Mar 1998 23:30:44 -0500, you wrote: > > > > :Interesting concept. Look at this message at yahoo: > > : > > :http://messages.yahoo.com/bbs?action=m&board=yahoo.e4.06.4687857&topi > > cid=0m2 > > :&msgid=6dl772$5hc$1@m2.yahoo.com > > > > Surindra, > > > > When I try this address, I get the following at Yahoo: > > - - - - > > Sorry, we can't process your request. You may want to check the URL > > and try again. > > > > Click the Back button on your browser to go back from whence you came. > > - - - - > > > > > > --Dan > > > > > > > > > > - > > - > > - - ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 05 Mar 1998 13:20:55 +0100 From: Johan Van Houtven Subject: [CANSLIM] Markets overnight / INTC Some random comments about the Markets and INTC. Take note that most comments have nothing or very little to do with CANSLIM. Thanks to INTC's warning it is going to be a daytraders paradise out there Thursday. I expect that a pack of tech related stocks, who may have noting to do with Intel, will get whacked early in the morning. Why a daytraders paradise. Extreme fear, often creates nice trading oppurtunities. People are sacred to deadth and will have their "sell at market" orders lined up in the morning. After the hoard has sold in panic, only buyers remain. And the stock bounces up. Typically the stock gaps down (from the previous day close) and then bounces. At least for a few minutes or hours. Just something I've noted before. I'm not suggesting you should hold on to INTC if you are still holding it. CANSLIMers who follow Stan Weinsteins sell principles should be out two days ago, when the uptrend line (+/- 45 degree line beginning early January till a few days ago) was broken. And I'm also not suggesting you should daytrade INTC. But I might be a interesting experience if you are interested in daytrading. Personally I'm not going to touch it, but I will be enjoying the show. :-) INTC is down in after hours to approx 75 1/2. A gap down of approx 11$. Ouch. The markets: The Hang Seng fell almost 5%, In Korea the market fell more than 6%. European stock markets are mostly down as I'm writing. - --- Johan Van Houtven - - ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 5 Mar 1998 09:31:56 -0500 From: "Bud Barton" Subject: [CANSLIM] Intro: Bud Barton and question This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------=_NextPart_000_003D_01BD4819.8A8E3640 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Greetings all! My name is Bud Barton and I am a small business owner. = I have been investing for 3 years with mixed success. I am going to = figure out how to get out of having to deal with the public and = government on a daily basis. I believe trading stocks is one ticket out = of my current situation but just seem to be spinning my wheels with = inconsistent results. I look forward to learning from this group. My first question is: What do you think about MS Carriers (NASDQ-MSCA)? = I looks good in the IBD and from RapidResearch.com. I would say short = term cup but no handle. Any personal recommendations? - ------=_NextPart_000_003D_01BD4819.8A8E3640 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
Greetings all!  My name is Bud = Barton and I=20 am a small business owner.  I have been investing for 3 years with = mixed=20 success.  I am going to figure out how to get out of having to deal = with=20 the public and government on a daily basis.  I believe trading = stocks is=20 one ticket out of my current situation but just seem to be spinning my = wheels=20 with inconsistent results.  I look forward to learning from this=20 group.
 
My first question is:  What do = you think=20 about MS Carriers (NASDQ-MSCA)?  I looks good in the IBD and from=20 RapidResearch.com.  I would say short term cup but no handle.  = Any=20 personal recommendations?
- ------=_NextPart_000_003D_01BD4819.8A8E3640-- - - ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 5 Mar 1998 06:41:21 -0800 From: Brian Nash Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] DHI I've owned DHI since last summer, and it's been a good performer. It's too far extended from its pivot around 20 to buy right now. The most salient fact about DHI is the short interest, almost 10 million shares. Several builders have significant short interest. From a fundamental basis, I think LEN is the best stock in this group. It's only a 53 EPS, due to a spinoff of LNR realty. Before the spinoff, it was an 83. Good base-on-base chart. > -----Original Message----- > From: James Adams [SMTP:jimadams@may-uky.campus.mci.net] > Sent: Wednesday, March 04, 1998 11:20 PM > To: Canslim > Cc: Bill Shower > Subject: [CANSLIM] DHI > > I haven't had the time to check the current CANSLIM #s, however a few > weeks > ago they were acceptable. > > DHI moving up on an upgrade by Alex Brown today. > Vol/ADV 432,600/273,636 close at 23 3/16, up .18 > > I'm also researching the #s on these that I really like. > PRCP, FOTO, CAST, PLCM RSC > > Any comments on these could save me some work..... > > TIA > James Adams......................Maysville, KY USA > http://www.cris.com/~jimadams/ > Internet Pager 1343361@pager.mirabilis.com > > > - - - ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 05 Mar 1998 06:43:57 -0800 From: Dan Cash Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] yikes - intc warning Dan Musicant wrote: > > On Wed, 4 Mar 1998 23:30:44 -0500, you wrote: > > :Interesting concept. Look at this message at yahoo: > : > :http://messages.yahoo.com/bbs?action=m&board=yahoo.e4.06.4687857&topicid=0m2 > :&msgid=6dl772$5hc$1@m2.yahoo.com > > Surindra, > > When I try this address, I get the following at Yahoo: > - - - - > Sorry, we can't process your request. You may want to check the URL > and try again. > > Click the Back button on your browser to go back from whence you came. > - - - - > > --Dan > > - The address works, but you have to copy the TWO lined address into your "Location" in your browser to execute. Since there are two lines in address, clicking on it will not execute! - - ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 5 Mar 1998 11:08:56 -0800 From: Mike Lucero Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] yikes - intc warning Or use the backspace key to remove the line break. Mike On Thursday, March 05, 1998 6:44 AM, Dan Cash [SMTP:dcash@compuall.net] wrote: > The address works, but you have to copy the TWO lined address into your > "Location" in your browser to execute. Since there are two lines in > address, clicking on it will not execute! > > Dan Musicant wrote: > > > > On Wed, 4 Mar 1998 23:30:44 -0500, you wrote: > > > > :Interesting concept. Look at this message at yahoo: > > : > > :http://messages.yahoo.com/bbs?action=m&board=yahoo.e4.06.4687857&topicid=0m2&msgid=6dl772$5hc$1@m2.yahoo.com > > > > Surindra, > > > > When I try this address, I get the following at Yahoo: > > - - - - > > Sorry, we can't process your request. You may want to check the URL > > and try again. > > > > Click the Back button on your browser to go back from whence you came. > > - - - - > > > > --Dan > > > > - > > > > - - ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 5 Mar 1998 19:39:53 -0500 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Markets overnight / INTC Well, as it turned out, unless the day traders were satisfied with less than a pt or so swing, it wasn't a very good day. I watch a lot of tech stocks (INTC, CPQ, IBM, DELL, AMAT, TXN, HWP, MOT, CUBE, MSFT, SUNW, MU, GTW, AMD, and a bunch of other lesser names). Aside from it being an extremely hectic and busy day (INTC alone accounted for over 10% of the 882 million shares trading on NASDAQ with over $6.6 billion changing hands) I saw very little "bounce" in the day. Both INTC and DELL closed close to the low of the day as just two examples. And the overall worst point in NASDAQ came in the mid to late afternoon. Adding to today was MOT's aftermarket announcement of flat sales, Asian crises, lower earnings, yada yada yada. So the Telecom group is likely to take a hit tomorrow. Also WAXS (a small telecom co) pre-announced its earnings which appear to be well under estimates. Another interesting story was Tech Data (TECD) which had a nice chart and good CS elements till today's trading. It was due to announce earnings on 3/26 but preannounced right before the close. I strongly suspect this was done to reassure institutional investors that there was nothing wrong with the earnings to account for the nearly 5 pt drop today. This one will be one of my barometers of any "bounce quality" tomorrow. I may even try to play some options on it since I can't afford the stock itself. I am also looking at April Intel and CPQ calls. As of a few minutes ago, futures were not showing any serious further selling. While my opinion is not set yet until I see the overnight mkts and futures tomorrow morning, my ideal scenario will be for a moderate gap down in the major tech names on the open, followed by 10 or 10:15 AM with a strong reversal. From what I see at the moment, this may be possible, however I am afraid we will have to contend with a unexpectedly strong jobs report (more to follow on this). Any statements or opinions are strictly my own and not that of my employer. My comments should not be interpreted as a recommendation of any kind. I am a licensed (inactive) broker and an active investor. All investors should do their own research prior to any investment, especially one learned about on the Internet. Hopefully my comments will better inform and educate all investors. tom w - -----Original Message----- From: Johan Van Houtven To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Date: Thursday, March 05, 1998 9:23 AM Subject: [CANSLIM] Markets overnight / INTC >Some random comments about the Markets and INTC. Take note that most >comments have nothing or very little to do with CANSLIM. > >Thanks to INTC's warning it is going to be a daytraders paradise out there >Thursday. I expect that a pack of tech related stocks, who may have noting >to do with Intel, will get whacked early in the morning. > >Why a daytraders paradise. Extreme fear, often creates nice trading >oppurtunities. People are sacred to deadth and will have their "sell at >market" orders lined up in the morning. > >After the hoard has sold in panic, only buyers remain. And the stock >bounces up. > >Typically the stock gaps down (from the previous day close) and then >bounces. At least for a few minutes or hours. > >Just something I've noted before. I'm not suggesting you should hold on to >INTC if you are still holding it. CANSLIMers who follow Stan Weinsteins >sell principles should be out two days ago, when the uptrend line (+/- 45 >degree line beginning early January till a few days ago) was broken. > >And I'm also not suggesting you should daytrade INTC. But I might be a >interesting experience if you are interested in daytrading. Personally I'm >not going to touch it, but I will be enjoying the show. :-) > >INTC is down in after hours to approx 75 1/2. A gap down of approx 11$. Ouch. > >The markets: > >The Hang Seng fell almost 5%, In Korea the market fell more than 6%. > >European stock markets are mostly down as I'm writing. > > > >--- Johan Van Houtven > > > >- > - - ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 5 Mar 1998 19:47:09 -0500 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] MSCA (was Intro: Bud Barton and question) Welcome to the group, Bud. I hope your trading ambitions are fully met. This is a good group in which to learn, for sure. What type of "small business" are you running? I took a brief look at MSCA, CS elements not bad, however in past two weeks stock moved up nearly 20% from a short (3.5 week) base at 25. Even with today's mild retreat of 43 cents, it's still more than 15% over any support, thus not a good candidate for a buy but definitely I would hold onto it had I bot it correctly. Both earnings and revenues are growing nicely, and it should benefit from the continued strong economic growth. I do note that its 5 year earnings growth rate is only 2%, and the forecast for 98 and 99 are for 14% and 17% growth respectively. Any statements or opinions are strictly my own and not that of my employer. My comments should not be interpreted as a recommendation of any kind. I am a licensed (inactive) broker and an active investor. All investors should do their own research prior to any investment, especially one learned about on the Internet. Hopefully my comments will better inform and educate all investors. tom w - -----Original Message----- From: Bud Barton To: canslim@xmission.com Date: Thursday, March 05, 1998 9:29 AM Subject: [CANSLIM] Intro: Bud Barton and question Greetings all! My name is Bud Barton and I am a small business owner. I have been investing for 3 years with mixed success. I am going to figure out how to get out of having to deal with the public and government on a daily basis. I believe trading stocks is one ticket out of my current situation but just seem to be spinning my wheels with inconsistent results. I look forward to learning from this group. My first question is: What do you think about MS Carriers (NASDQ-MSCA)? I looks good in the IBD and from RapidResearch.com. I would say short term cup but no handle. Any personal recommendations? - - ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 5 Mar 1998 22:25:43 -0500 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] Employment Report due Friday, 3/6/98; overall economics, bonds, gold, etc In the past two weeks, sentiment seems to have shifted dramatically. Two weeks ago, the Asian Flu was a non-event, the Feds were most likely to lower rates than to stand pat or raise, earnings were growing, employment was weakening, inflation was not a worry, etc. Today was a good case in point. The bond mkt expected money to flow out of equities and into the bond mkt, instead it seems to have either gone to money mkts or be used to reduce margin debits. The bond mkt did not benefit. On Monday nite, when I posted the economic calendar, the expectation for tomorrow's jobs report was for a more moderate job growth of plus 253,000 new jobs with an overall unemployment rate of 4.7%. Currently, the mkt is still "officially" expecting about 250K new jobs, and an employment rate of 4.6 or 4.7%. However, it's worth examining the accuracy of this most important report for the past several months in light of recent, including today's, reports. Month Feb Jan Dec Nov Forecast up 250K up 260K up 215K up 215K Actual ??? up 358K up 355K up 429K Overall Unemployment Forecast 4.6% 4.6% 4.6% 4.7% Actual ??? 4.7% 4.7% 4.6% Today's weekly new claims was expected to drop by 5000, instead it dropped by 16,000. Continuing claims fell by 103,000 to 2,115,000 which is the lowest since July 1, 1989! Factory orders today were expected to rise by 0.5%, and did, the seventh rise in the past eight months. Durable goods alone rose 1.6%, much greater than the expectation of a 0.7% rise. Unfilled orders also rose by 0.7%. The one "non inflationary" part of the report was that the nondurable goods new orders component fell by 0.9%. Unexpectedly strong retail store chain sales reports also showed strong consumer spending (as an example, KM continued its breakout on huge volume). Intel's warnings of a weak first qtr were first dismissed as simply the long awaited effects of the Asian flu. But after they made it clear it was rather the result of a weak demand for PCs and other products, the problem became greater and affected other sectors in addition to the semi-conductors. I listened to one report today that uses state withholding taxes as a measure of employment. That report suggests that new jobs will once again top 300,000 (the average for the past three months is 380,000 so despite beating the forecast, a low 300K nr might actually be positive for the mkt). However, the bond mkt appears to be bracing for a report significantly higher than the low 300K level. Meanwhile, the gold market again sold off, this time on fears of central bank selling pressure, taking it once again well under the magical $300/ounce level. Forecasters are already suggesting the long bond will settle in the 6% to 6.125% range unless we get an exceptionally weak jobs report on Friday. Meanwhile, sentiment on the Feds next action has swung away from looking for a rate cut to worrying about a rate hike (IMHO, not likely to happen before mid summer at the earliest). What's my bottom line?? I think we are headed back into the same mental attitude we had several months ago, when we were affected by worries over earnings declines, Asian Flu, recession, etc., before the failure to prove out these events caused them to be dismissed. I think Greenspan's warnings that they would not really show up till the first qtr are starting to be felt. However, at the same time domestic consumption is still growing sufficient to absorb a lot of any mfr'ing slowdown due to Asia, with the net effect that mfr's cannot raise prices due to the demand as the competition and Asia would otherwise cost them mkt share. Net effect: reduction in corp earnings. By the time we can weather this latest onslaught on mkt pricing, we are likely to be thru the Q1 earnings cycle and into the normal summer doldrums. Any recovery in mkt index valuations are likely to be suppressed until we can eke our way into the usual fall rallies. Fortunately, there is a lot of money that must be put somewhere. I am still in cash, but will continue my personal belief in finding small cap opportunities. They may end up being the only game in town for the next 3 to 6 months. Any statements or opinions are strictly my own and not that of my employer. My comments should not be interpreted as a recommendation of any kind. I am a licensed (inactive) broker and an active investor. All investors should do their own research prior to any investment, especially one learned about on the Internet. Hopefully my comments will better inform and educate all investors. tom w - - ------------------------------ End of canslim-digest V2 #136 ***************************** To unsubscribe to canslim-digest, send an email to "majordomo@xmission.com" with "unsubscribe canslim-digest" in the body of the message. For information on digests or retrieving files and old messages send "help" to the same address. Do not use quotes in your message.