From: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com (canslim-digest) To: canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Subject: canslim-digest V2 #137 Reply-To: canslim Sender: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Errors-To: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Precedence: bulk canslim-digest Friday, March 6 1998 Volume 02 : Number 137 In this issue: Re: [CANSLIM] yikes - intc warning Re: [CANSLIM] Employment Report due Friday, 3/6/98; overall economics, bonds, gold, etc [CANSLIM] First Attempt: CACOA Re: [CANSLIM] Markets overnight / INTC [CANSLIM] Friday was a classic distribution day Re: [CANSLIM] MSCA (was Intro: Bud Barton and question) [CANSLIM] World Markets Re: [CANSLIM] Friday was a classic distribution day Re: [CANSLIM] First Attempt: CACOA Re: [CANSLIM] First Attempt: CACOA [CANSLIM] selling Re: [CANSLIM] selling [CANSLIM] CPQ Re: [CANSLIM] selling Re: [CANSLIM] First Attempt: CACOA Re: [CANSLIM] Markets overnight / INTC ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Date: Fri, 06 Mar 1998 03:43:42 GMT From: musicant@autobahn.org (Dan Musicant) Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] yikes - intc warning On Thu, 5 Mar 1998 11:08:56 -0800, you wrote: :Or use the backspace key to remove the line break.=20 : :Mike=20 Yes, that's the key. I copied and pasted it into a text editor, put my cursor on the end of the first line and hit the delete key. That makes it all one line that you can paste into your browser, and voila! Dan - - ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 06 Mar 1998 00:17:54 -0500 From: "Frank V. Wolynski" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Employment Report due Friday, 3/6/98; overall economics, bonds, gold, etc Tom, Thanks for a very impressive, concise, and easily understood analysis. I always look forward to your posts. Frank Wolynski At 22:25 3/5/98 -0500, Tom Worley wrote: >In the past two weeks, sentiment seems to have shifted dramatically. Two >weeks ago, the Asian Flu was a non-event, the Feds were most likely to lower >rates than to stand pat or raise, earnings were growing, employment was >weakening, inflation was not a worry, etc. Today was a good case in point. >The bond mkt expected money to flow out of equities and into the bond mkt, >instead it seems to have either gone to money mkts or be used to reduce >margin debits. The bond mkt did not benefit. > ...snipped... - - ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 05 Mar 1998 23:16:46 -0800 From: "Timothy A. Budd" Subject: [CANSLIM] First Attempt: CACOA Ok, as I indicated earlier, I am new to this game. Let me know what you guys think about CACOA. EPS 79, RS 98, Timeliness A. Please correct me if I am wrong, but is it forming a cup and handle? The left lip of the cup is higher than the right lip (does this matter?). The volume seems to be drying up somewhat in the handle. I know that EPS is lower than some would like, but it does look somewhat attractive. N'est pas? __________________________________________________________________________ "I can picture in my mind a world without war, a world without hate. And I can picture us attacking that world, because they'd never expect it." J.Handey - - ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 06 Mar 1998 09:08:45 +0100 From: Johan Van Houtven Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Markets overnight / INTC Tom wrote: >Well, as it turned out, unless the day traders were satisfied with less than >a pt or so swing, it wasn't a very good day. Did you or any one else expect something else? :-) For daytrading it was a good day. I could not resist getting into INTC. It gave a buying oppurtunity that lasted for several minutes. Does not happen often! A daytrader could easily pick it up at 75 3/8 and sell near 77. You have to have real-time quotes and fast execution. And I would say you should only do this with at least 1K shares IMHO. Did you notice that INTC refused to go as low as during the Asia-related market drop last Q of 1997? I'd bet some VALUE investors were happily buying INTC. Long-term, i.e. 2 years or longer, INTC is a hell of a investment in my opinion. Not that I would buy it now to hold, because I can not bring my self to hold long term. I like to trade. Anyway, this has nothing to do with CANSLIM. DELL bounced from opening 131.4 to 135.6 and then sold off like INTC. Best action of the day was in the oils though. >I saw very little "bounce" in the day. Both INTC and DELL closed >close to the low of the day as just two examples. These type of bounces are very short lived. Several minutes (INTC) to hours (DELL) as I wrote. >I am also looking at April Intel and CPQ calls. Quite clever. I'd agree that ones bearishness in some of these excellent tech co's gets to the max, it is time to buy 'm. So MOT is on my watch list for the next weeks. If someone FORCED me to do any long term stock betting: I'd buy INTC, MOT, TXN, etc during so-called "disaster" periods like NOV last years and INTC now. Back to CANSLIM now. :-) Let's hope the market goes down to side-ways for a while now. Looking at the charts, I'd say we need it. - --- Johan Van Houtven - - ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 06 Mar 1998 06:05:30 -0500 From: Jeffry White <"postwhit@sover.net"@sover.net> Subject: [CANSLIM] Friday was a classic distribution day Nasdaq and SP made a higher high and closed unchanged to lower on a volume increase from the prior day's action. Maybe NYSE wasn't a distribution day. (Sorry, I don't really pay much attention to the NYSE). Jeffry - - ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 6 Mar 1998 01:30:55 -0500 From: "Bud Barton" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] MSCA (was Intro: Bud Barton and question) - -----Original Message----- From: Tom Worley To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Date: Thursday, March 05, 1998 7:55 PM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] MSCA (was Intro: Bud Barton and question) > >What type of "small business" are you running? A Collection Agency - - ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 6 Mar 1998 08:44:34 -0500 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] World Markets Looks like NASDAQ at least should regain some of the lost ground from yesterday. Asia was ok, Europe up across the board, France and Germany esp strong, even Switzerland and UK doing nicely. Futures are positive, and NASDAQ 100 looks to be surging as we approach the opening. Any statements or opinions are strictly my own and not that of my employer. My comments should not be interpreted as a recommendation of any kind. I am a licensed (inactive) broker and an active investor. All investors should do their own research prior to any investment, especially one learned about on the Internet. Hopefully my comments will better inform and educate all investors. tom w - - ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 06 Mar 1998 09:04:17 -0500 From: Peter Newell Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Friday was a classic distribution day Jeffery, I like see 4 to 5 distribution days with a 1% drop on higher volume, and a confirmation by some other indicators look at Oct bunch of them there then the 1% break and the New High/New Low etc confirming. I'd almost expect to see a few with the latest runnup. Time will tell. Peter Newell - ---------- > From: Jeffry White <"postwhit@sover.net"@sover.net> > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > Subject: [CANSLIM] Friday was a classic distribution day > Date: Friday, March 06, 1998 6:05 AM > > Nasdaq and SP made a higher high and closed unchanged to lower on a > volume increase from the prior day's action. Maybe NYSE wasn't a > distribution day. (Sorry, I don't really pay much attention to the > NYSE). > > Jeffry > > - - - ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 06 Mar 1998 09:08:46 -0500 From: Peter Newell Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] First Attempt: CACOA Timothy, Looks like a base on a base. This can be very bullish. Look for it to break on volume over 13. The earnings and sales growth are sluggish wonder if they are in expansion mode. Peter Newell - ---------- > From: Timothy A. Budd > To: canslim@lists.xmission.com > Subject: [CANSLIM] First Attempt: CACOA > Date: Friday, March 06, 1998 2:16 AM > > Ok, as I indicated earlier, I am new to this game. Let me know what you > guys think about CACOA. EPS 79, RS 98, Timeliness A. > > Please correct me if I am wrong, but is it forming a cup and handle? The > left lip of the cup is higher than the right lip (does this matter?). The > volume seems to be drying up somewhat in the handle. I know that EPS is > lower than some would like, but it does look somewhat attractive. N'est pas? > > __________________________________________________________________________ > "I can picture in my mind a world without war, a world without hate. And I > can picture us attacking that world, because they'd never expect it." J.Handey > > - - - ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 6 Mar 1998 07:29:32 -0800 From: "Patrick Wahl" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] First Attempt: CACOA > Date: Thu, 05 Mar 1998 23:16:46 -0800 > To: canslim@lists.xmission.com > From: "Timothy A. Budd" > Ok, as I indicated earlier, I am new to this game. Let me know what you > guys think about CACOA. EPS 79, RS 98, Timeliness A. > > Please correct me if I am wrong, but is it forming a cup and handle? The > left lip of the cup is higher than the right lip (does this matter?). The > volume seems to be drying up somewhat in the handle. I know that EPS is > lower than some would like, but it does look somewhat attractive. N'est pas? > I think that is too short to be considered a C&H. I think those things need about 8 weeks and up to form. But the stock looks ok, it is headed in the right direction anyway. - - ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 6 Mar 1998 12:38:25 -0800 From: Mike Lucero Subject: [CANSLIM] selling I sold HD the day it broke below 64 with higher volume than the day before. It seems to have turned around, with support at 64 holding, after all. I'm confused on when to sell. If we sell when it looks like the stock is topping, or even when the stock has headed down on increasing volume, we may have lost our longer-term perspective. Should we ignore the short-term signs until we have a 20% profit? I'm interested in how others decide. For example, GNCI looked like it was topping and then broke below it's daily trend yesterday. It doesn't look as bad on a weekly trend. If it's ultimately going down, today would have been the day to get out. I'll hold on since I've held it less than 8 weeks(unless it breaks 38.) Thanks, Mike Lucero - - ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 06 Mar 1998 17:31:31 -0500 From: Peter Newell Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] selling Mike, Somebody was selling some HD the last few days. Don't get upset when your taking a profit. Same with GNCI although its not as severe as with HD. WON says a 20% rule is a good simple system to use while getting your feet wet. Another simple rule is selling below the 50 dma or the 20 dma. Maybe you can use the money to find a stock with accelerating earnings that is breaking out. Peter Newell - ---------- > From: Mike Lucero > To: 'canslim@lists.xmission.com' > Subject: [CANSLIM] selling > Date: Friday, March 06, 1998 3:38 PM > > > I sold HD the day it broke below 64 with higher volume than the day before. > It seems to have turned around, with support at 64 holding, after all. > > I'm confused on when to sell. If we sell when it looks like the stock is > topping, or even when the stock has headed down on increasing volume, we > may have lost our longer-term perspective. Should we ignore the short-term > signs until we have a 20% profit? > > I'm interested in how others decide. For example, GNCI looked like it was > topping and then broke below it's daily trend yesterday. It doesn't look as > bad on a weekly trend. If it's ultimately going down, today would have been > the day to get out. I'll hold on since I've held it less than 8 > weeks(unless it breaks 38.) > > Thanks, > > Mike Lucero > > - - - ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 6 Mar 1998 20:37:49 -0500 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] CPQ For those that didn't already pick up on the news, after the close on Friday Compaq announced that its sales will be flat compared to the fourth qtr, and they expect a break even on earnings (First Call had them looking for around 35 cents I believe). While analysts had already been cutting forecasts, and the stock had already rolled over in anticipation, it still caused the stock to drop another two bucks in after mkt trading tonight. Also Intel clarified its earnings shortfall to be in the range of 25% below expectations (or about 12 cents). We are now in the time period for major corps and mkt leaders to do their pre-announcements if analysts haven't adjusted their forecasts sufficiently. You should expect more of the same, at least with big cap stocks with significant Asian or technology exposure. I think in CPQ's case they did blame the Asian flu and weak currency exchange problems, while in Intel's case they simply blamed weak PC mfr demand along with a tough pricing environment. As an aside, I am expecting news like we had this past week from INTC, MOT and CPQ to cause analysts to be ruthless in slashing earnings forecasts. The net effect may be to create the same environment we saw today with the bond mkt when the employment report was substantially stronger than forecast, but much weaker than feared. It's a time to either stay in cash, or do an even better job in your research and analysis of stocks. Any statements or opinions are strictly my own and not that of my employer. My comments should not be interpreted as a recommendation of any kind. I am a licensed (inactive) broker and an active investor. All investors should do their own research prior to any investment, especially one learned about on the Internet. Hopefully my comments will better inform and educate all investors. tom w - - ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 06 Mar 1998 21:37:10 -0600 From: Dave Cameron Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] selling Mike Lucero wrote: > > I sold HD the day it broke below 64 with higher volume than the day before. > It seems to have turned around, with support at 64 holding, after all. Well... yesterday followed by today would shake a lot of people out, I wouldn't feel too bad unless this happens frequently. Looking at a chart for HD, I would think that its most recent base really was between 53 and 60. Thus, a drop from 68 to 63 wouldn't be a big deal for me unless I'd bought on the first huge volume day where it hit 65. Then I would have been shaken out. > > I'm confused on when to sell. If we sell when it looks like the stock is > topping, or even when the stock has headed down on increasing volume, we > may have lost our longer-term perspective. Should we ignore the short-term > signs until we have a 20% profit? > It depends. If you ignore the short-term signs, you may lose ALL your profit. I know, I've done it frequently. On the other hand, the reason I've done it frequently is that I've rode out a couple to 50%+ gains. Usually I let the chart tell me. HD is what James called a LLUR stock. GNCI fits the same framework. If GNCI broke below 34, I'd be nervous because that (to me) is its last extended base. The latter ones don't span more than 4 weeks. > I'm interested in how others decide. For example, GNCI looked like it was > topping and then broke below it's daily trend yesterday. It doesn't look as > bad on a weekly trend. If it's ultimately going down, today would have been > the day to get out. I'll hold on since I've held it less than 8 > weeks(unless it breaks 38. I don't think GNCI is dropping on big volume. In November, the volume was twice what it is now. Just my opinion (since you asked). I hope it helps. Dave Cameron > > Thanks, > > Mike Lucero > > - - - ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 06 Mar 1998 21:39:52 -0600 From: Dave Cameron Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] First Attempt: CACOA Timothy A. Budd wrote: > > Ok, as I indicated earlier, I am new to this game. Let me know what you > guys think about CACOA. EPS 79, RS 98, Timeliness A. Nice looking chart; I think the action you refer to is to short a time frame to be a c-and-h. If you're in, stay in. But it may base for quite a while in its current range. The run up from 9-1/2 to 13+ was pretty recent. Lately it looks like volume has dried up. This is a good sign, but may be quite a wait. Dave Cameron > > Please correct me if I am wrong, but is it forming a cup and handle? The > left lip of the cup is higher than the right lip (does this matter?). The > volume seems to be drying up somewhat in the handle. I know that EPS is > lower than some would like, but it does look somewhat attractive. N'est pas? > > __________________________________________________________________________ > "I can picture in my mind a world without war, a world without hate. And I > can picture us attacking that world, because they'd never expect it." J.Handey > > - - - ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 6 Mar 1998 19:41:07 -0800 From: " Richard T." Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Markets overnight / INTC good post, I am short in INTC, thinking that we were going to get our very needed correction! Wrong again, no problem though, got to keep on trying. This is a very strong market/economy we are in. Seeya - - ------------------------------ End of canslim-digest V2 #137 ***************************** To unsubscribe to canslim-digest, send an email to "majordomo@xmission.com" with "unsubscribe canslim-digest" in the body of the message. For information on digests or retrieving files and old messages send "help" to the same address. Do not use quotes in your message.