From: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com (canslim-digest) To: canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Subject: canslim-digest V2 #162 Reply-To: canslim Sender: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Errors-To: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Precedence: bulk X-No-Archive: yes canslim-digest Wednesday, March 25 1998 Volume 02 : Number 162 In this issue: Re: [CANSLIM] THRX and MTIC Re: [CANSLIM] OBV/MF Comparison [CANSLIM] EQNX [CANSLIM] Interest Rates & there effect Re: [CANSLIM] THRX and MTIC Re: [CANSLIM] VSAT PPD (Was [CANSLIM] MSFT) Re: [CANSLIM] EQNX Re: [CANSLIM] Pick of the Week (well... 2) Re: [CANSLIM] THRX and MTIC Re: [CANSLIM] VSAT Re: [CANSLIM] Interest Rates & there effect Re: [CANSLIM] EQNX Fw: [CANSLIM] OBV/MF Comparison [CANSLIM] World Markets [CANSLIM] Futures [CANSLIM] ATMI,JKHY,ROSE, [CANSLIM] USNA up 4% on 4 X ADV RE: [CANSLIM] EQNX Re: [CANSLIM] USNA up 4% on 4 X ADV [CANSLIM] Re: PDSF Re: [CANSLIM] USNA up 4% on 4 X ADV Re: [CANSLIM] USNA up 4% on 4 X ADV Re: [CANSLIM] Interest Rates & there effect Re: [CANSLIM] Re: PDSF Re: [CANSLIM] Interest Rates & there effect Re: [CANSLIM] Interest Rates & there effect Re: [CANSLIM] Interest Rates & there effect [CANSLIM] Market Direction Re: [CANSLIM] Interest Rates & there effect Re: [CANSLIM] Interest Rates & there effect ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Date: Tue, 24 Mar 1998 21:15:35 -0500 From: Peter Newell Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] THRX and MTIC THRX: just sold my shares, if you see it break and if it's trading above a previous days high you could give it a shot. Just don't wait do long if it goes against you. MTIC: looks good Peter Newell - ---------- > From: Anindo Majumdar > To: canslim@lists.xmission.com > Subject: [CANSLIM] THRX and MTIC > Date: Tuesday, March 24, 1998 6:56 PM > > Is this a buying opp for THRX or the beginning of a correction ? > What do people think about MTIC ? > > Anindo > > > - - - ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 24 Mar 1998 21:46:44 -0500 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] OBV/MF Comparison Thanks, Connie. If you are still interested in Pre Paid Legal, try PPD. Reversed a short downtrend today with a 3.125 upswing today, which would likely work for either an investor or a trader. Sorry you got diverted with the wrong symbol. Don't you hate that?? Any statements or opinions are strictly my own and not that of my employer. My comments should not be interpreted as a recommendation of any kind. I am a licensed (inactive) broker and an active investor. All investors should do their own research prior to any investment, especially one learned about on the Internet. Hopefully my comments will better inform and educate all investors. tom w - -----Original Message----- From: Connie Mack Rea To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Date: Tuesday, March 24, 1998 9:22 PM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] OBV/MF Comparison >Evening Tom-- > > >There is a serendipitous side to my thinking about your question. I was >thinking to pull up a stock to run some checks on and thought I >remembered a stock called PrePaid Legal because a friend of mine does >some work for the company. I punched in PPL, thinking that that was the >symbol. PPL is PP&L Resources. So I used it. > >What I found was that the stock fits my MF/OBV. It apparently doesn't >have enough average volume to have shown up on my regular scan. > >But there it is. PPL is pretty nice looking stock. It does, of course, >not have much price travel because it has a 7% dividend. It might fit >into someone's IRA. > - - ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 24 Mar 1998 19:46:30 -0600 From: Joe Scott Subject: [CANSLIM] EQNX This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------=_NextPart_000_0052_01BD575D.8A6FCE00 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Members Anyone see anything with EQNX, I bot in at 20, was looking real nice, = and has now pulled back. Volume slowing, any ideas, or cause to worry? = Tom I know you were watching this one a bit, your input would sure be = welcome. Sold WATR today it managed to move up 1/4 today, gave it two weeks, sold = for small loss. =20 Watched MDLK again today, damn hate missin that one. don't know a thing joe - ------=_NextPart_000_0052_01BD575D.8A6FCE00 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
Members
 
Anyone see anything with EQNX,  I bot in = at 20,=20 was looking real nice, and has now pulled back. Volume slowing, any = ideas, or=20 cause to worry?  Tom I know you were watching this one a bit, your = input=20 would sure be welcome.
Sold WATR today it managed to move up 1/4 = today, gave=20 it two weeks, sold for small loss. 
Watched MDLK again today, damn hate missin = that=20 one.
 
don't know a = thing
joe
- ------=_NextPart_000_0052_01BD575D.8A6FCE00-- - - ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 24 Mar 1998 23:04:13 -0500 From: "Frank V. Wolynski" Subject: [CANSLIM] Interest Rates & there effect I'm always looking for a scrap of information that will give me a better assessment of risk to reward. Interested in the latest tug-o-war between the various investment vehicles, (commodities, treasuries, crude oil, stocks), I took a close look at the 30yr treasury against the S&P 500 and the Utilities Indexes. I've composed a graphic for the past 5 years and overlayed the periods with rising interest rates with vertical bars to identify them easily. I've uploaded the graphic to the canslim ftp site: ftp://chaos.csd.sdl.usu.edu/pub/canslim/RateEffects1.jpg Jeff Salisbury has been most efficient and prompt in placing the file in the public download area. Just doubleclick the link above (with Eudora anyway) and your browser should launch, if not, cut and paste the link into your browser and the 2-3 minutes transfer of the JPeg graphic will commence. You can get an expanded view of the 30year treasury yield at BigCharts. Symbol TYX, you can even run moving averages, other indicators. I like simple moving averages myself. The Intraday was interesting on the TYX today, the yield reversed and popped up towards the close of the day. I hope you find it useful. Frank Wolynski - - ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 24 Mar 1998 23:17:18 -0500 From: "Frank V. Wolynski" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] THRX and MTIC At 15:56 3/24/98 -0800, Anindo Majumdar wrote: > Is this a buying opp for THRX or the beginning of a correction ? >What do people think about MTIC ? > >Anindo > > THRX broke its latest trend line. Looks like it wants to find the 50day mov. MTIC is looking good. My momemtum indicators are making me very skiddish! I shouldn't even be responding feeling the "willies" like I am. I just can't shake the Asian Flu, Crude Oil price manipulation, overvaluation like the street wants me to. Frank Wolynski - - ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 24 Mar 1998 22:20:09 -0600 From: Dave Cameron Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] VSAT > Joe Scott wrote: > > Members, > Might be one to watch, came up in a scan, looks to be doing something today. > VSAT It did have a big volume day today; my biggest concern is that its more than 20% off its high from October. Dave Cameron p.s. > > don't know a thing, I don't believe that for a minute... > joe - - ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 24 Mar 1998 22:22:29 -0600 From: Dave Cameron Subject: PPD (Was [CANSLIM] MSFT) Patrick Wahl wrote: > > After the close today, Microsoft said they would have earnings ahead > of estimates. I don't suppose I need to add that this ought to be > very good for tech stocks tomorrow. Several of the leaders showed > signs of coming to life today - Dell, CSCO, also COMS perked up a > bit. PPD also spiked up through a fifty day moving average today on > heavy volume - trader type people like this sort of thing. PPD has a VERY nice looking EPS trend. The earnings seem to be steadily accelerating. Coupled with the big spike today, this looks like a real winner to me. Dave Cameron - - ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 24 Mar 1998 22:23:55 -0600 From: Dave Cameron Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] EQNX > Joe Scott wrote: > > Members > > Anyone see anything with EQNX, I bot in at 20, was looking real nice, and has > now pulled back. Volume slowing, any ideas, or cause to worry? Tom I know you > were watching this one a bit, your input would sure be welcome. I'm not Tom, but I'll comment. EQNX is just pulling back a bit. Stocks often do this after a breakout. As long as it stays above 20 - you're OK. Dave Cameron - - ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 24 Mar 1998 22:26:20 -0600 From: Dave Cameron Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Pick of the Week (well... 2) Tom Worley wrote: > > US Naval Academy (oops, my military background showing) I mean USNA > has strong mngmt ownership, and no insider selling showing. However, > it's way out of top five in its group. I'll bet you never knew that the U.S. Naval Academy was publicly traded. Its all part of selling off government assets to finance the national debt, you know! > > ASTX added to my watch list, I like the way it is trading, as well as > the CS elements. Looks like it should meet or beat full year > estimates. Thanks for the feedback, Dave Cameron - - ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 25 Mar 1998 00:02:39 EST From: DCSquires Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] THRX and MTIC In a message dated 98-03-24 18:59:09 EST, you write: << What do people think about MTIC ? >> I have been watching this one trade since it came out of the lower consolidation area. It was trading really sluggishly then. It had to trade some serious volume to churn through all the supply in the 13-14$ area. Since then trading has improved and I was happy to see it take a litte 1 1/2 week breather. I bought it late in the day when I saw a lot of blocks coming into it as it cleared 15. Looks good to test its old highs as long as "M" is up. The low group strength is the only real problem I have with it. DSquires - - ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 24 Mar 1998 23:04:05 -0600 From: "Joe Scott" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] VSAT This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------=_NextPart_000_0062_01BD5779.24DF1160 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Dave I noticed that, (VSAT being 20 % down from high) but chart looks good, = and can't find a thing wrong with company, except can't find anything on = next 5 years growth, don't like that. Going to watch it in the morning = (closely), see what happens.=20 Thanks on info on EQNX.=20 don't know a thing, joe - ------=_NextPart_000_0062_01BD5779.24DF1160 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
Dave
I noticed that, (VSAT being 20 % down from high) but chart looks = good, and=20 can't find a thing wrong with company, except can't find anything on = next 5=20 years growth, don't like that.  Going to watch it in the morning = (closely),=20 see what happens.
Thanks on info on EQNX.
 
don't know a = thing,
joe
- ------=_NextPart_000_0062_01BD5779.24DF1160-- - - ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 25 Mar 1998 06:52:44 -0500 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Interest Rates & there effect Frank, will take a look at the graphic later, for now some quick comments, tho. We have been in an economic expansion for eight years now. Looking back only five years will not show the possible, or apparent, relationships during a contraction. Currently we are enjoying a scenario that has never existed before: high employment with low interest rates and no sig inflation. Thus the results you get today may well not be similiar to what you might have gotten 20 years ago. Over the years I have met a number of commodities brokers, and asked each one the same question: do any of your clients consistently make money? The simple answer: no. The only ones to escape from commodities with a net gain were either the ones that made one big hit and quit, or the ones that knew what they were doing and made their own decisions, or the few that knew one commodity real well, and stuck to that one only (or the ones married to or having affairs with state governors!). Any statements or opinions are strictly my own and not that of my employer. My comments should not be interpreted as a recommendation of any kind. I am a licensed (inactive) broker and an active investor. All investors should do their own research prior to any investment, especially one learned about on the Internet. Hopefully my comments will better inform and educate all investors. tom w - -----Original Message----- From: Frank V. Wolynski To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Date: Tuesday, March 24, 1998 11:04 PM Subject: [CANSLIM] Interest Rates & there effect >I'm always looking for a scrap of information that will give me a better >assessment of risk to reward. Interested in the latest tug-o-war between >the various investment vehicles, (commodities, treasuries, crude oil, >stocks), I took a close look at the 30yr treasury against the S&P 500 and >the Utilities Indexes. > >I've composed a graphic for the past 5 years and overlayed the periods with >rising interest rates with vertical bars to identify them easily. > >I've uploaded the graphic to the canslim ftp site: > >ftp://chaos.csd.sdl.usu.edu/pub/canslim/RateEffects1.jpg > >Jeff Salisbury has been most efficient and prompt in placing the file in >the public download area. Just doubleclick the link above (with Eudora >anyway) and your browser should launch, if not, cut and paste the link into >your browser and the 2-3 minutes transfer of the JPeg graphic will commence. > >You can get an expanded view of the 30year treasury yield at BigCharts. >Symbol TYX, you can even run moving averages, other indicators. >I like simple moving averages myself. >The Intraday was interesting on the TYX today, the yield reversed and >popped up towards the close of the day. > >I hope you find it useful. > >Frank Wolynski > > >- > - - ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 25 Mar 1998 07:01:26 -0500 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] EQNX CS elements are still strong - 95/89/A/A with up/down at 1.3. If you use an 8% stop on a buy at 20, your stop is around 18.40, which fits the chart pattern protecting you back down to the last reversal, and sharp spike up. It's never good to end up with even a paper loss after being in profits, so you have to weigh that in considering whether to stick with an original stop or raise it up. Volume has been drying up on the decline, which is also encouraging. I suspect it may find a base somewhere around 20 or so, then need to build volume again. Any statements or opinions are strictly my own and not that of my employer. My comments should not be interpreted as a recommendation of any kind. I am a licensed (inactive) broker and an active investor. All investors should do their own research prior to any investment, especially one learned about on the Internet. Hopefully my comments will better inform and educate all investors. tom w - -----Original Message----- From: Dave Cameron To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Date: Tuesday, March 24, 1998 11:23 PM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] EQNX >> Joe Scott wrote: >> >> Members >> >> Anyone see anything with EQNX, I bot in at 20, was looking real nice, and has >> now pulled back. Volume slowing, any ideas, or cause to worry? Tom I know you >> were watching this one a bit, your input would sure be welcome. > >I'm not Tom, but I'll comment. EQNX is just pulling back a bit. Stocks >often do this after a breakout. As long as it stays above 20 - you're OK. > >Dave Cameron > >- > - - ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 25 Mar 1998 06:55:04 -0500 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Fw: [CANSLIM] OBV/MF Comparison I never saw this one bounce back last night, so resending. - -----Original Message----- From: Tom Worley To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Date: Tuesday, March 24, 1998 9:46 PM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] OBV/MF Comparison >Thanks, Connie. If you are still interested in Pre Paid Legal, try >PPD. Reversed a short downtrend today with a 3.125 upswing today, >which would likely work for either an investor or a trader. Sorry you >got diverted with the wrong symbol. Don't you hate that?? > >Any statements or opinions are strictly my own and not that of my >employer. My comments should not be interpreted as a recommendation of >any kind. I am a licensed (inactive) broker and an active investor. >All investors should do their own research prior to any investment, >especially one learned about on the Internet. Hopefully my comments >will better inform and educate all investors. >tom w >-----Original Message----- >From: Connie Mack Rea >To: canslim@lists.xmission.com >Date: Tuesday, March 24, 1998 9:22 PM >Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] OBV/MF Comparison > > >>Evening Tom-- >> >> >>There is a serendipitous side to my thinking about your question. I >was >>thinking to pull up a stock to run some checks on and thought I >>remembered a stock called PrePaid Legal because a friend of mine does >>some work for the company. I punched in PPL, thinking that that was >the >>symbol. PPL is PP&L Resources. So I used it. >> >>What I found was that the stock fits my MF/OBV. It apparently >doesn't >>have enough average volume to have shown up on my regular scan. >> >>But there it is. PPL is pretty nice looking stock. It does, of >course, >>not have much price travel because it has a 7% dividend. It might >fit >>into someone's IRA. >> > > - - ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 25 Mar 1998 07:22:14 -0500 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] World Markets It's going to be frustrating for me today, as I am off work to go to a job interview. NASDAQ100 futures up 14 pts (over 1%) while S&P500 up nearly half a percentage pt. Asia did well for the most part, as is Europe, with several important mkts such as France and Germany up well over 1%. Looks like a strong opening, and I don't expect the economic reports today to be able to have any major adverse effects. Any statements or opinions are strictly my own and not that of my employer. My comments should not be interpreted as a recommendation of any kind. I am a licensed (inactive) broker and an active investor. All investors should do their own research prior to any investment, especially one learned about on the Internet. Hopefully my comments will better inform and educate all investors. tom w - - ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 25 Mar 1998 08:28:22 -0500 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] Futures NASDAQ100 futures now up 23.40, S&P500 up 6 pts, the trend is growing. Looks like a solid start to the day. Any statements or opinions are strictly my own and not that of my employer. My comments should not be interpreted as a recommendation of any kind. I am a licensed (inactive) broker and an active investor. All investors should do their own research prior to any investment, especially one learned about on the Internet. Hopefully my comments will better inform and educate all investors. tom w - - ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 25 Mar 1998 09:46:51 -0500 From: "Bud Barton" Subject: [CANSLIM] ATMI,JKHY,ROSE, This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------=_NextPart_000_0008_01BD57D2.F06A7820 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable ATMI popped up from my screening this morning. CS numbers look good to = me although there are some differences between DG and Rapid Research on = EPS. Seems to be basing around 29 and looks like a lot of people jumped = ship in Dec @ 21. Comments? JKHY big run up couple months ago and basing nicely. CS numbers look = good and no overhead resistance. Comments? ROSE just made right side of cup. This year est earnings dn 5% next = year up 11%. Comments? - ------=_NextPart_000_0008_01BD57D2.F06A7820 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
ATMI popped up from my screening = this=20 morning.  CS numbers look good to me although there are some = differences=20 between DG and Rapid Research on EPS.  Seems to be basing around 29 = and=20 looks like a lot of people jumped ship in Dec @ 21.  = Comments?
 
JKHY big run up couple months ago = and basing=20 nicely.  CS numbers look good and no overhead resistance. =20 Comments?
 
ROSE just made right side of = cup.  This=20 year est earnings dn 5% next year up 11%. =20 Comments?
- ------=_NextPart_000_0008_01BD57D2.F06A7820-- - - ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 25 Mar 1998 11:21:58 -0500 From: "Bud Barton" Subject: [CANSLIM] USNA up 4% on 4 X ADV This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------=_NextPart_000_0006_01BD57E0.397C9A40 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable anyone buy in today? - ------=_NextPart_000_0006_01BD57E0.397C9A40 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
anyone buy in = today?
- ------=_NextPart_000_0006_01BD57E0.397C9A40-- - - ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 24 Mar 1998 20:46:48 -0800 From: Mike Lucero Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] EQNX I think WATR looks like it's still behaving itself. The volume has dried up while the price drooped, and the close is above the 10 DMA. MDLK is only 4-5% above the high close from October. Mike On Tuesday, March 24, 1998 5:47 PM, Joe Scott [SMTP:joe@2fords.net] wrote: > Members > > Anyone see anything with EQNX, I bot in at 20, was looking real nice, and has now pulled back. Volume slowing, any ideas, or cause to worry? Tom I know you were watching this one a bit, your input would sure be welcome. > Sold WATR today it managed to move up 1/4 today, gave it two weeks, sold for small loss. > Watched MDLK again today, damn hate missin that one. > > don't know a thing > joe > << File: ATT00002.htm >> - - ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 25 Mar 1998 11:33:50 EST From: DCSquires Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] USNA up 4% on 4 X ADV In a message dated 98-03-25 11:25:41 EST, you write: << anyone buy in today? >> I did. It is trading OK. I expected it to trade better coming through 26. I will be unhappy if it doesn't hold a bid of 26 on the close. I hate sticky bids and like to see the bid follow the ask up evenly. USNA has low ADV and that might account for it. DSquires - - ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 25 Mar 1998 11:37:45 EST From: DCSquires Subject: [CANSLIM] Re: PDSF Hi all, I don't know if anyone has mentioned this stock yet but it looks good. PDSF is in the finance industry. GS-83, ACC-B, RS-91, EPS-75, U/D-1.2. PDSF has tremendous sales and earnings momentum with good comps in the forward quarter, which is very important to me. The chart looks great and a move to 8 on volume is a good buy point (ADV=23000). Warning.......WON says don't buy stocks under 12 bucks, so buyer beware. DSquires - - ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 25 Mar 1998 11:01:31 -0600 From: "Joe Scott" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] USNA up 4% on 4 X ADV This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------=_NextPart_000_0026_01BD57DD.5DFB9680 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Still watching USNA, to late do you think? Its really not that much off = base, where would you consider base? Anyone watching MERQ today? don't know a thing joe - ------=_NextPart_000_0026_01BD57DD.5DFB9680 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
Still watching USNA, to late do you think? = Its really=20 not that much off base, where would you consider base?
Anyone watching MERQ today?
 
don't know a = thing
joe
- ------=_NextPart_000_0026_01BD57DD.5DFB9680-- - - ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 25 Mar 1998 12:15:44 EST From: DCSquires Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] USNA up 4% on 4 X ADV In a message dated 98-03-25 12:03:58 EST, you write: << Still watching USNA, to late do you think? Its really not that much off base, where would you consider base? >> The base is a two month ascending triangle. My breakout point was pinned at 25 1/4 but as I said the bid wouldn't move. When the bid has trouble moving out of the base as false breakout becomes more likely,IMO. PGEX's attempted BO last week was a great example of this. However, the bid-ask on USNA has improved since this mouring. DSquires - - ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 25 Mar 1998 12:32:23 -0500 From: "Frank V. Wolynski" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Interest Rates & there effect At 06:52 3/25/98 -0500, Tom Worley wrote: >We have been in an economic expansion for eight years now. Looking >back only five years will not show the possible, or apparent, >relationships during a contraction. > Big charts only had 4.x years of data for the 30yr treasury, I couldn't go back further. Wasn't looking for a true economic contraction period, I am not attempting to forecast an end to these times. >Currently we are enjoying a scenario that has never existed before: >high employment with low interest rates and no sig inflation. Thus the >results you get today may well not be similiar to what you might have >gotten 20 years ago. > I couldn't agree more, however wasn't looking to analyze 20 years ago, just the current Oil / Interest Rate / Stock connections. Also as you say, trying to determine the current significance of the Oil / Interest Rate landscape. >Over the years I have met a number of commodities brokers, and asked >each one the same question: do any of your clients consistently make >money? The simple answer: no. The only ones to escape from commodities >with a net gain were either the ones that made one big hit and quit, >or the ones that knew what they were doing and made their own >decisions, or the few that knew one commodity real well, and stuck to >that one only (or the ones married to or having affairs with state >governors!). > No Commodity trader here! Not having an affair with the Governor either! So, I guess I'm doomed to trading stocks! Now if I knew the right Governors wife, I could do well in stocks! :-) I do not presume to know where the markets will go, but I do know they will go! I'm counting on it. I will study where they have been and play the trend. I have had no success calling a top or a bottom, but snatching the middle hasn't been to bad! I know the stock market hates interest rate boosts, so therefore, I look to the Long Bond for signs of where rates have been and are they more likely to reverse or stay trending. The only thing I would infer from the charts are that if stocks get the idea that Interest rates are going to trend in the direction of the last reversal, then a correction is only ticks away. I'm calling the last few weeks a reversal, because the yield has broken the down trend line. The 30 yr yield is above the 50day MOV and with Oil rallying looks like it may have some fuel. (No pun intended!) Of course if the yield wallows around in the current range a bit, stocks would most probably continue to rally, they are certainly trending! Housing starts up a record amount sent the 30yr treasuries into bit of a sell early today, thus raising the Yield, today, which could change tomorrow. It could be taken out, by a reversal in Oil futures, some other data that causes the bonds to rally and thus bring down the yields, but again, I can't predict the future. I just study the past. Just be really carefull and stick to your rules! I know Tom has some sound ones, I hope everyone else does too! Frank Wolynski ( I am often wrong, plan accordingly!) - - ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 25 Mar 1998 12:32:00 -0500 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Re: PDSF I traded this one once several years ago, and in about the same price range. Don't remember if I made money or lost, and thinking back it had to be over 4 years ago as I still had clients then. Finally got out of it when I continued to be unimpressed with what was happening with the gaming industry at the time. Today, I am still not impressed with the gaming industry. Too much competition, and too many other options for the gamblers than a vacation to a casino. I also don't like the looks of such a huge jump in revenues, without more profits floating to the bottom line. It appears that costs grew astronomically, and I would use caution till I discovered why, and where that money was going. Any statements or opinions are strictly my own and not that of my employer. My comments should not be interpreted as a recommendation of any kind. I am a licensed (inactive) broker and an active investor. All investors should do their own research prior to any investment, especially one learned about on the Internet. Hopefully my comments will better inform and educate all investors. tom w - -----Original Message----- From: DCSquires To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Date: Wednesday, March 25, 1998 11:36 AM Subject: [CANSLIM] Re: PDSF >Hi all, > >I don't know if anyone has mentioned this stock yet but it looks good. PDSF is >in the finance industry. GS-83, ACC-B, RS-91, EPS-75, U/D-1.2. PDSF has >tremendous sales and earnings momentum with good comps in the forward quarter, >which is very important to me. The chart looks great and a move to 8 on volume >is a good buy point (ADV=23000). Warning.......WON says don't buy stocks under >12 bucks, so buyer beware. > >DSquires > >- > - - ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 25 Mar 1998 12:47:05 -0500 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Interest Rates & there effect My read on the bond market over the past several months is we have gone from an unjustified "euphoric" dream of a Fed rate cut to accepting that no change is the most likely status thru the middle of the year, and after that any bias is to raising, not lowering, rates. Refinancing of home mortgages is now surging, as are sales of new and existing homes, as borrowers rush to lock in rates. The tendency historically is to hold off locking in rates when the rates look to be dropping, then rush to lock in when they appear to bottom or be rising. By and large, I think Treasuries are in a trading range for now. I don't expect the Asian Flu to make a big difference at this point. Nor do I anticipate any change by the Feds for at least several months. But unless we start seeing a steady drop in employment, I do expect a rate hike by late this year, as inflation pressures, being ignored for now, continue to build. The unexpectedly large drop in durable goods reported this morning may once again signal some easing of the "tight labor market", but I haven't yet seen the entire report so am only guessing. Any statements or opinions are strictly my own and not that of my employer. My comments should not be interpreted as a recommendation of any kind. I am a licensed (inactive) broker and an active investor. All investors should do their own research prior to any investment, especially one learned about on the Internet. Hopefully my comments will better inform and educate all investors. tom w - -----Original Message----- From: Frank V. Wolynski To: canslim@lists.xmission.com ; canslim@lists.xmission.com Date: Wednesday, March 25, 1998 12:33 PM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Interest Rates & there effect >The only thing I would infer from the charts are that if stocks get the >idea that Interest rates are going to trend in the direction of the last >reversal, then a correction is only ticks away. I'm calling the last few >weeks a reversal, because the yield has broken the down trend line. The 30 >yr yield is above the 50day MOV and with Oil rallying looks like it may >have some fuel. >(No pun intended!) > >Of course if the yield wallows around in the current range a bit, stocks >would most probably continue to rally, they are certainly trending! > - - ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 25 Mar 1998 13:32:32 -0500 From: "Frank V. Wolynski" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Interest Rates & there effect At 12:47 3/25/98 -0500, Tom Worley wrote: ...sniped... >The unexpectedly large drop in durable goods >reported this morning may once again signal some easing of the "tight >labor market", but I haven't yet seen the entire report so am only >guessing. > Thanks for a thorough treatment of the interest rate issue! I'll continue to watch them closely, as well as crud err... crude oil futures! Am I assuming correctly that the large drop in durable goods orders infers you to believe those companies affected may be inclined to forestall new hires? That could apply some nice self correcting moderation to the job market! Best Regards, Frank Wolynski (I am often wrong, plan accordingly!) - - ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 25 Mar 1998 11:27:09 -0800 From: "Ken Davidson" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Interest Rates & there effect It has been quite sometime since I have had a chance to say anything as I have been very busy but I noticed people are looking for a long term chart on the 30 year bond. If you look at Terry Laundrys site, at http://www.amshar.com/update/tupdate.html he has a great chart of interest rates from the 1940's to today. It is a technical site using a T theory and has nothing to do with Canslim but it is a great chart that looks at the big picture. Ken www.agoraoutlook.com The information contained in this commentary is based upon data that is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed, and subject to change without notice. All projections, forecasts, opinions, and track records cannot be guaranteed to equal our past performance. Persons reading this are responsible for their actions. Officers and employees of this publication may at times have a position in the securities mentioned, or related services. >Thanks for a thorough treatment of the interest rate issue! >I'll continue to watch them closely, as well as crud err... crude oil futures! > >Am I assuming correctly that the large drop in durable goods orders infers >you to believe those companies affected may be inclined to forestall new >hires? >That could apply some nice self correcting moderation to the job market! > >Best Regards, > >Frank Wolynski >(I am often wrong, plan accordingly!) > > >- > > - - ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 25 Mar 1998 18:17:50 -0500 From: Jeffry White <"postwhit@sover.net"@sover.net> Subject: [CANSLIM] Market Direction Rather sizeable distribution day in all indices. Just call me shorty.;) Jeffry - - ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 25 Mar 1998 19:12:35 -0500 From: "Frank V. Wolynski" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Interest Rates & there effect At 11:27 3/25/98 -0800, Ken Davidson wrote: >It has been quite sometime since I have had a chance to say anything as I >have been very busy but I noticed people are looking for a long term chart >on the 30 year bond. If you look at Terry Laundrys site, at >http://www.amshar.com/update/tupdate.html he has a great chart of interest >rates from the 1940's to today. It is a technical site using a T theory and >has nothing to do with Canslim but it is a great chart that looks at the big >picture. Thanks Ken, interesting site and theory. Best Regards, Frank Wolynski - - ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 25 Mar 1998 21:12:59 -0500 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Interest Rates & there effect I was expecting weakness in the Transportation component, primarily from aircraft orders. This is the single most volatile element, and is largely responsible for keeping the overall report from being a reliable economic indicator. Will try to review the entire report tomorrow and comment. If most of the drop was due to aircraft orders, then probably won't mean much, as this portion swings wildly month to month. But if there was underlying weakness in some of the more consistent parts, then we may be seeing some effect from lower demand from Asia. And yes, in that case, new hires may decrease, and in some industries we may even see some layoffs. Any statements or opinions are strictly my own and not that of my employer. My comments should not be interpreted as a recommendation of any kind. I am a licensed (inactive) broker and an active investor. All investors should do their own research prior to any investment, especially one learned about on the Internet. Hopefully my comments will better inform and educate all investors. tom w - -----Original Message----- From: Frank V. Wolynski To: canslim@lists.xmission.com ; canslim@lists.xmission.com Date: Wednesday, March 25, 1998 1:33 PM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Interest Rates & there effect >At 12:47 3/25/98 -0500, Tom Worley wrote: >...sniped... >>The unexpectedly large drop in durable goods >>reported this morning may once again signal some easing of the "tight >>labor market", but I haven't yet seen the entire report so am only >>guessing. >> > >Thanks for a thorough treatment of the interest rate issue! >I'll continue to watch them closely, as well as crud err... crude oil futures! > >Am I assuming correctly that the large drop in durable goods orders infers >you to believe those companies affected may be inclined to forestall new >hires? >That could apply some nice self correcting moderation to the job market! > >Best Regards, > >Frank Wolynski >(I am often wrong, plan accordingly!) > > >- > - - ------------------------------ End of canslim-digest V2 #162 ***************************** To unsubscribe to canslim-digest, send an email to "majordomo@xmission.com" with "unsubscribe canslim-digest" in the body of the message. For information on digests or retrieving files and old messages send "help" to the same address. Do not use quotes in your message.