From: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com (canslim-digest) To: canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Subject: canslim-digest V2 #166 Reply-To: canslim Sender: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Errors-To: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Precedence: bulk X-No-Archive: yes canslim-digest Saturday, March 28 1998 Volume 02 : Number 166 In this issue: Re: [CANSLIM] Opinion on ASND Re: [CANSLIM] CHTT [CANSLIM] Re: HDWY Re: [CANSLIM] Head Count Re: [CANSLIM] CHTT Re: [CANSLIM] Re: HDWY Re: [CANSLIM] Stock Charts and Relative Strength Re: [CANSLIM] Stock Charts and Relative Strength Re: [CANSLIM] Market Direction Re: [CANSLIM] Head Count [CANSLIM] Head count - Send to headcount@hotmail.com [CANSLIM] Market Direction [CANSLIM] Market Direction [CANSLIM] Market Direction Re: [CANSLIM] Head count - Send to headcount@hotmail.com Re: [CANSLIM] Market Direction Re: [CANSLIM] Market Direction Re: [CANSLIM] VIX (was Head count - Send to headcount@hotmail.com) Re: [CANSLIM] VIX (was Head count - Send to headcount@hotmail.com) Re: [CANSLIM] VIX (was Head count - Send to headcount@hotmail.com) Re: [CANSLIM] VIX (was Head count - Send to headcount@hotmail.com) Re: [CANSLIM] Stock Charts and Relative Strength Re: [CANSLIM] Stock Charts and Relative Strength Re: [CANSLIM] Market Direction Re: [CANSLIM] Market Direction Re: [CANSLIM] Market Direction [CANSLIM] Worth a Look Re: [CANSLIM] CHTT Re: [CANSLIM] Worth a Look Re: [CANSLIM] Market Direction Re: [CANSLIM] Market Direction ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Date: Fri, 27 Mar 1998 21:08:46 -0500 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Opinion on ASND Still, RS 55, EPS 56, and 98 estimate only for up 3%, while 99 estimate for up 26%. There has also been a lot of insider selling, which may not mean anything, but the CS elements are not there. A better example in the same group is CSCO (87/95, 98 est +24%, 99 est +26%). Any statements or opinions are strictly my own and not that of my employer. My comments should not be interpreted as a recommendation of any kind. I am a licensed (inactive) broker and an active investor. All investors should do their own research prior to any investment, especially one learned about on the Internet. Hopefully my comments will better inform and educate all investors. tom w - -----Original Message----- From: Anindo Majumdar To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Date: Friday, March 27, 1998 4:50 PM Subject: [CANSLIM] Opinion on ASND > Whats the opinion on ASND ? Up on strong volume. Broke through the 200 day >MA. A play on the growth of the internet infrastructure buildout. > >Anindo > > >- > - - ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 27 Mar 1998 21:17:45 -0500 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] CHTT Too short a time period for a valid C&H, IMHO. I see a descending base, inspired by a volume driven breakout at a pivot point around 15, then a consolidation at 20, and a second pivot point as it broke out on volume from that price. Right now it looks to be consolidating (basing) that latest move. Basic CS good at 96/97, with volume drying up. Earnings in Q2 and Q3 of prior year look to good to be reliable based on far smaller change in revenues. Upcoming Q1 report has an easy qtr for comparison, after that will get mighty tough. Daily Graphs Online shows FY98 estimate at $1.20. Co is #2 in its group. Any statements or opinions are strictly my own and not that of my employer. My comments should not be interpreted as a recommendation of any kind. I am a licensed (inactive) broker and an active investor. All investors should do their own research prior to any investment, especially one learned about on the Internet. Hopefully my comments will better inform and educate all investors. tom w - -----Original Message----- From: Antista, Anthony To: 'CANSLIM' Date: Friday, March 27, 1998 12:46 PM Subject: [CANSLIM] CHTT >Does anyone have an opinion(or more info) on CHTT?? > >RS: 95 EPS: 97 A/D: A >ADV 60,700 > >Yearly eps growth: 67%, quarterly: 20% > Fiscal 1998 estimates (qtr ending 11/98) > $1.00 (from IBD), $1.29 from Yahoo! ?? > >1997 earnings .80 cents > >left side of cup formed late Feb. >right side formed last week >handle formed Past week.??? > >Qtr earnings due 4/2 > > >Thanks, >Tony > > >- > - - ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 27 Mar 1998 21:36:49 EST From: DCSquires Subject: [CANSLIM] Re: HDWY Tom, Our little small cap gem had a good day today, IMO. If memory serves me, this is the first time the bid was able to close above 8. I also saw some big blocks today go off at the ask.....a 22 mill and some 5 mill blocks. Dave Squires - - ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 27 Mar 1998 21:35:54 -0500 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Head Count I nominated Surindra!! Any statements or opinions are strictly my own and not that of my employer. My comments should not be interpreted as a recommendation of any kind. I am a licensed (inactive) broker and an active investor. All investors should do their own research prior to any investment, especially one learned about on the Internet. Hopefully my comments will better inform and educate all investors. tom w - -----Original Message----- From: John Iding To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Date: Friday, March 27, 1998 9:20 PM Subject: [CANSLIM] Head Count Who is counting? I am interested ... John >We need a head count of members of this group that would definitely >sign up for one year of DG Online at $99/each (regardless of whether >you are taking any other WON product). - - ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 27 Mar 1998 18:41:24 -0800 From: "Patrick Wahl" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] CHTT > From: "Antista, Anthony" > To: "'CANSLIM'" > left side of cup formed late Feb. > right side formed last week > handle formed Past week.??? I would call that thing from September to late Feb. the cup, the little hook down into March the handle, then a breakout. I don't have any strong feeling on whether or not it is past a buy point, if so, not by very much. - - ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 27 Mar 1998 21:48:52 -0500 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Re: HDWY I think you are right, first time to close the bid over 8, but it's been higher intraday as it must have moved the bid over 8 on Wednesday, when I was out of the office, as it hit a new high of 8.375 that day. Yes, today was decent, nearly 1.5X ADV and closed up and at the high of the day. I continue to view this stock as basing and am just waiting for a volume driven breakout of (hopefully) major proportions (or else a cash buyout at a gazillion dollars a share!!). I am the eternal optimist on my investments! Any statements or opinions are strictly my own and not that of my employer. My comments should not be interpreted as a recommendation of any kind. I am a licensed (inactive) broker and an active investor. All investors should do their own research prior to any investment, especially one learned about on the Internet. Hopefully my comments will better inform and educate all investors. tom w - -----Original Message----- From: DCSquires To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Date: Friday, March 27, 1998 9:36 PM Subject: [CANSLIM] Re: HDWY >Tom, > >Our little small cap gem had a good day today, IMO. If memory serves me, this >is the first time the bid was able to close above 8. I also saw some big >blocks today go off at the ask.....a 22 mill and some 5 mill blocks. > >Dave Squires > >- > - - ------------------------------ Date: Sat, 28 Mar 1998 10:54:12 +0700 (ICT) From: Peter Christiansen Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Stock Charts and Relative Strength I would like to suggest users of Daily Graphs Online that are put off by the pricing, think about trying out Quotes Plus. I am a beta tester of version 2, which should be out shortly. This new version gives you five years price and volume data on all stocks, mutual funds, and commodities. You can calculate their version of relative strength, which is close enough to Daily Graphs for my purposes. You can create reports showing the relative performance of all of the S&P industry groups for various time periods. They also now include extensive fundamental data, updated weekly, on all stocks. This data includes the following items: Company Description Price to Sales Ratio Industry Group Industry Sector Issue Type S&P Ranking Market Capitalization Annual Dividend Yield Options Book Value Beta Trailing 12 mo. Revenue per Share 1, 3, & 5 Year Revenue Growth Rate 1, 3, & 5 Year Earnings Growth Rate Earnings & Revenues per Share for Past 12 Quarters Dividends Paid P/E Float Shares Outstanding Float as % of Shares Outstanding Short Interest Short Interest as % of Float Institutional % Held This is about all I need for my decision making. If I need additional information, I can usually find it fairly quickly on the Internet. Best of all you can create sophisticated scans on all of this data. I don't know what the pricing will be for version 2, but the current version is is just 12.95 a month. I think it is a fantastic service, and recommend it without reservation. No.. I'm not affiliated with Quotes Plus; just a happy customer. Peter Christiansen Chiang Mai - Thailand - - ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 27 Mar 1998 23:41:46 EST From: Mulack Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Stock Charts and Relative Strength Tom I think it is a great idea and although I am new would eagerly participate. Sincerely Frank - - ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 27 Mar 1998 21:03:35 -0800 From: Dan Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Market Direction Gentlemanly said! Tom Worley wrote: > Jeffrey, > You posted a simple statement that a particular day was > distributional. In hopes of learning from you, I asked you why. Your > response was that certain indexes were down for the day, and why > didn't I agree with you. I noted at the time that part of your > reasoning was that NASDAQ closed in the lower half of the range for > the day (yet still up almost a full percentage point), thus I felt it > worth pointing out that some of the indexes you indicated as down > were, in fact, up. Your response was "so what". > > I don't happen to view a single day, or even two or three (we are now > down on the Dow 30 three consecutive days) as singularly proving > distribution. Nor do I consider the Dow 30 as the best indicator of > "M". Nor do I buy index funds, or options on the indexes, thus am more > concerned whether a particular stock is distributional, than whether > some index is. However, that said, I definitely don't consider > "distribution" when a major index like the NASDAQ composite is up > nearly a percentage point, and on respectable volume, and setting a > new high, to prove distribution. > > You may believe this, that is your right, but I don't like your > sarcasm, and will thus choose to hit the delete button in the future > rather than the Reply to Author. I respect your right to your point of > view, and attempted to learn from it. I don't appreciate the response. > > Any statements or opinions are strictly my own and not that of my > employer. My comments should not be interpreted as a recommendation of > any kind. I am a licensed (inactive) broker and an active investor. > All investors should do their own research prior to any investment, > especially one learned about on the Internet. Hopefully my comments > will better inform and educate all investors. > tom w > -----Original Message----- > From: Jeffry White > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > Date: Friday, March 27, 1998 4:04 PM > Subject: [CANSLIM] Market Direction > > >Well, Tom. All the indices are down today, with the exception of the > >Philadelphia Semiconductor Index and the Transports are up .01%. Is > >this a "distribution day" in your book, or do we have to have some > >newsworthy item like Saddam, Monica, Newt, Boris before we start > >thinking short term (at minimum) top? > > > >- > > > > - - - ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 27 Mar 1998 23:29:43 -0700 (MST) From: cando@highfiber.com Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Head Count >Who is counting? I am interested ... John >>We need a head count of members of this group that would definitely > >sign up for one year of DG Online at $99/each (regardless of whether > >you are taking any other WON product). I'd go for it. James Coburn Albuquerque, NM - - ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 27 Mar 1998 19:42:40 -0800 (PST) From: Rich Subject: [CANSLIM] Head count - Send to headcount@hotmail.com OK, everyone Iwill do the headcount. I will set up data base and keep track of it. After we have the numbers we will discuss how to deal with WON. I would suggest sending to me at headcount@hotmail.com the following information. 1. e-amil address 2. number of trades a year 3. subscribe at $100? 4. subscribe at $200? 5. subscribe at $300? 6. subscribe at $400? 7. anything else you think would be useful. I will give you a running count every few days. BTW, does anyone follow the VIX. It has moved up bigtime this week and is currently at 24.4 indicating a possible top. Ciao, Rich _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - - ------------------------------ Date: Sat, 28 Mar 1998 06:45:19 -0500 From: Jeffry White <"postwhit@sover.net"@sover.net> Subject: [CANSLIM] Market Direction Fair enough on the sarcasm point, but it's not only my nature, but something I have a hard time controlling with one who seemingly deviates so far from some CANSLIM, requirements particularly the "L" and the "M". Not to mention, cheap stocks only for a round lot entitlement and sitting through a market crash with no stops on a couple of those cheap stocks, selling a good mover (albeit cheap) because of some emotionalism over Saddam. Maybe it's a sarcasm out of fear that one day I'll get my head all cluttered up with noise and will forget the simple application with which I have had such good fortune since paying a couple of years tuition to the market. On distribution. . . there is no requirement that an index close lower to fall within the HTMMIS definition of a "distribution day". Where an index such as the NAS gaps up over a percent and a half after a run like we've had (on good volume), closes within the lower half of the day's range, ALL other major indices close unchanged to lower (the R2000 included) on volume higher than the prior day, reading anything other than distribution in the Nasdaq on Wednesday is just wishful, emotionalism which will have you holding stocks through the next short to intermediate to long move down. By the way, just so we are clear. I didn't respond "so what?" before I had explained that all of the indices were unchanged to down other than the NAS on higher volume. Your reponse was simply that the SP100, Russell, etc were up. Once again, so what? You find some comfort in those indices being up? You *think* the small caps are about to rally so that you can buy some more cheap stocks in a dangerous market? Sorry, Tom. I have an opinion, obviously. I wish I could deliver it without sarcasm, but I find many of your stray comments disturbing and have a hard time understanding how you make any money at all in these markets. I've stated my thoughts before, and this time, I'll simply suggest that you would do well to read HTMMIS again and try to get rid of some of those old habits and all that garbage in your head that has let you stray so far from what is really a rather simple system, if you are willing to put some blinders on. For anyone who tries to follow the WON "M", I offer my thoughts. Distribution in all indices on Wednesday and Friday in the Nasdaq have me cautious. Sentiment approaching 52 week numbers. We may find a bottom without an intermediate move to the downside, or several more distribution days along a sideways move. I don't guess, I just get cautious. The market will tell you if you let it. More distribution, I'm out. More leaders losing their highflying RS and Group RS status (notice the distribution in some of the internet stocks, transportation stocks, and software stocks), and I'm out and moving more vigourously to the down side. For Frank, I don't speculate on where the bottom may lie. That is a game of fools. The market will tell you where the bottom may lie, if that's good enough for you. Regards Jeffry - - ------------------------------ Date: Sat, 28 Mar 1998 06:57:12 -0500 From: Jeffry White <"postwhit@sover.net"@sover.net> Subject: [CANSLIM] Market Direction Tom, you wrote: > thus am more concerned whether a particular stock is distributional, than whether > some index is. Could you explain how that thinking fits into CANSLIM, as opposed to CANSLI-? I'm particularly curious how you square that comment with WON HTMMIS that the "M" is the single most important criterion? Thanks Jeffry - - ------------------------------ Date: Sat, 28 Mar 1998 08:24:36 -0500 From: Jeffry White <"postwhit@sover.net"@sover.net> Subject: [CANSLIM] Market Direction "On one of the days in the uptrend, the total volume for the market will increase over the preceding day's high volume, but the [index's] closing average will show stalling action, or substantially less upward movement, than the prior few days. "The spread from the daily high to the daily low of the market index may be a little larger than on earlier days. ***THE MARKET AVERAGE DOES NOT HAVE TO CLOSE DOWN FOR THE DAY, ALTHOUGH IN SOME INSTANCES IT WILL DO SO, MAKING IT MUCH EASIER TO RECOGNIZE DISTRIBUTION AS PROFESSIONAL INVESTORS SELL OR LIQUIDATE STOCK.*** "Normal liquidation near the market peak will only occur on ONE OR TWO days, which are part of the uptrend. The stock market comes under distribution while it is advancing! ***THIS IS ONE REASON SO FEW PEOPLE KNOW HOW TO RECOGNIZE DISTRIBUTION (SELLING)*** "Immediately following the first selling near the top, a vacuum exists where volume may subside and the market averages will sell off for perhaps four days. The second and probably last early chance to recognize a top reversal is when the market attempts its first rally, which it will ALWAYS do after a number of days down from its highest point." HTTMIS, Chapter 7, page 50. (emphasis added). "General market top reversals are USUALLY LATE SIGNALS -- the last straw before a cave in. In most cases, distribution or selling in individual market leaders has, for days or even weeks, preceeded the approaching market break.... "If you miss the [indices] topping signals, WHICH IS EXCEEDINGLY EASY TO DO SINCE THEY OCCUR ON ONLY ONE OR TWO DAYS, you will be wrong on the direction of the market and wrong on almost everything you do. "Recognizing when the market has hit a top or bottomed out is 50% of the whole complicated ball game. It is also the key investing skill that all-too-many professional and amateur invstors seem to lack." HTTMIS, Chapter 7, page 46. (emphasis added) JW - - ------------------------------ Date: Sat, 28 Mar 1998 08:49:59 -0500 From: Joan Sherman Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Head count - Send to headcount@hotmail.com > >BTW, does anyone follow the VIX. It has moved up bigtime this week >and is currently at 24.4 indicating a possible top. What is the VIX? Joan Sherman /\~~~/\ /\~~~/\ /\~~~/\ /\~/\ /\~/\ and the gang ** ** ** ** ** Support Animal Rescue - - ------------------------------ Date: Sat, 28 Mar 1998 08:51:23 -0500 From: "Frank V. Wolynski" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Market Direction At 06:45 3/28/98 -0500, Jeffry White wrote: >For Frank, I don't speculate on where the bottom may >lie. That is a game of fools. The market will tell you where the >bottom may lie, if that's good enough for you. >Regards >Jeffry > I couldn't agree more and it is how I read it also! Good enough for me? Well, it has to be, that is all there is, my thoughts haven't moved one yet! Although I too spent a couple of years trying it that way! I don't speculate either, just curious if you might've. Glad you didn't. Best Regards, Frank Wolynski (Getting much better, but I'm still wrong enough that you'd better plan accordingly!) - - ------------------------------ Date: Sat, 28 Mar 1998 08:51:23 -0500 From: "Frank V. Wolynski" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Market Direction At 06:45 3/28/98 -0500, Jeffry White wrote: >For Frank, I don't speculate on where the bottom may >lie. That is a game of fools. The market will tell you where the >bottom may lie, if that's good enough for you. >Regards >Jeffry > I couldn't agree more and it is how I read it also! Good enough for me? Well, it has to be, that is all there is, my thoughts haven't moved one yet! Although I too spent a couple of years trying it that way! I don't speculate either, just curious if you might've. Glad you didn't. Best Regards, Frank Wolynski (Getting much better, but I'm still wrong enough that you'd better plan accordingly!) - - ------------------------------ Date: Sat, 28 Mar 1998 08:53:13 -0500 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] VIX (was Head count - Send to headcount@hotmail.com) Joan, VIX is the volatility indicator, and Mike Langston has reviewed this several times in the past (will see if I can find a copy and repost it). Simply put, if VIX is below 20, CANSLIM type stocks seem to have a favorable environment, but when it is over 20 (as it now is at 24.40) these type stocks have more trouble performing. Since Mike first mentioned it, I put it on my monitor at work and pay attention to it. Seems to track real well with actual stocks I am watching with good CS elements and has been a factor in some of my recent sell decisions. Any statements or opinions are strictly my own and not that of my employer. My comments should not be interpreted as a recommendation of any kind. I am a licensed (inactive) broker and an active investor. All investors should do their own research prior to any investment, especially one learned about on the Internet. Hopefully my comments will better inform and educate all investors. tom w - -----Original Message----- From: Joan Sherman To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Date: Saturday, March 28, 1998 8:39 AM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Head count - Send to headcount@hotmail.com > >> >>BTW, does anyone follow the VIX. It has moved up bigtime this week >>and is currently at 24.4 indicating a possible top. > >What is the VIX? > > >Joan Sherman /\~~~/\ /\~~~/\ /\~~~/\ /\~/\ /\~/\ > and the gang ** ** ** ** ** > Support Animal Rescue > > > > > > > >- > - - ------------------------------ Date: Sat, 28 Mar 1998 09:11:24 -0500 From: Joan Sherman Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] VIX (was Head count - Send to headcount@hotmail.com) Tom, That was quick, thanks. I'll pay attention. Joan Sherman /\~~~/\ /\~~~/\ /\~~~/\ /\~/\ /\~/\ and the gang ** ** ** ** ** Support Animal Rescue - - ------------------------------ Date: Sat, 28 Mar 1998 09:11:18 -0500 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] VIX (was Head count - Send to headcount@hotmail.com) Just finished searching for Mike's post, would have sworn I have saved it, but must have lost it in my last HD crash. Guess you will have to ask Mike to repost. Any statements or opinions are strictly my own and not that of my employer. My comments should not be interpreted as a recommendation of any kind. I am a licensed (inactive) broker and an active investor. All investors should do their own research prior to any investment, especially one learned about on the Internet. Hopefully my comments will better inform and educate all investors. tom w - -----Original Message----- From: Joan Sherman To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Date: Saturday, March 28, 1998 9:00 AM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] VIX (was Head count - Send to headcount@hotmail.com) >Tom, > That was quick, thanks. I'll pay attention. > > >Joan Sherman /\~~~/\ /\~~~/\ /\~~~/\ /\~/\ /\~/\ > and the gang ** ** ** ** ** > Support Animal Rescue > > > > > > > >- > - - ------------------------------ Date: Sat, 28 Mar 1998 09:16:12 -0500 From: "Frank V. Wolynski" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] VIX (was Head count - Send to headcount@hotmail.com) At 09:11 3/28/98 -0500, Joan Sherman wrote: >Tom, > That was quick, thanks. I'll pay attention. > >Joan Sherman /\~~~/\ /\~~~/\ /\~~~/\ /\~/\ /\~/\ > and the gang ** ** ** ** ** > Support Animal Rescue > The VIX is available on Bigcharts back to 1994 I believe. Who or what is "the gang"? Frank Wolynski - - ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 27 Mar 1998 21:24:40 -0500 From: "Gary M. Pess" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Stock Charts and Relative Strength Count me in for $99! Gary M. Pess > We need a head count of members of this group that would definitely > sign up for one year of DG Online at $99/each - - ------------------------------ Date: Sat, 28 Mar 1998 09:37:54 EST From: SACADS Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Stock Charts and Relative Strength Yeah, me too. - - ------------------------------ Date: Sat, 28 Mar 1998 09:47:18 -0500 From: "Frank V. Wolynski" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Market Direction At 08:24 3/28/98 -0500, Jeffry White wrote: >"General market top reversals are USUALLY LATE SIGNALS -- the last straw >before a cave in. In most cases, distribution or selling in individual >market leaders has, for days or even weeks, preceeded the approaching >market break.... > Excerpts from IBD Top 10 percentage losers for the week. # 4 Transportation - Airlines @ -3.1% # 9 Medical-Drug/Diversified @ -2.5% #17 Auto Mfrs-Domestic @ -2.1% #22 Finance-Investment Brokers @ -1.6% Excerpts from IBD Top percentage gainers for the week: # 1 Metal Ores-Gold/Silver @ +15.6% # 2 Oil & Gas-Drilling @ + 8.4% # 6 Machinery-Const/Mining @ + 5.7% 5 other Oil related groups showed up in the top 10 percentage gainers for the week. I am amazed the Bldg-Resident/Commrcl group held up this past week. What with the Long Bond inching up. Group # 13 (lost 5 in ranking, gained .7%) Not that I'm predicting anything, I guess the record setting home starts reported for the week, helped. They may be safe as long as the long bond doesn't break above 6.2%. I'm not trying to glean anything or persuade anyone, just a report on activity that I'm sure most of you have been observing anyway. My personal take is that some heretofore leader groups are undergoing distribution as observed directly from the charts of individual securities, others are being accumulated! (How's that for a good, middle of the road, noncommital observation of the obvious! I'm not even involved in politics!) I guess the Metal Ores move surprised me more than anything. Of course the Central Banks will probably come out and sell some more, but Gold did find its heretofore bottom at approx $300/ounce, then reversed. Well, here's a toast to Gold, Oil and Interest rates being a false rally! "Make it so Number One!" Frank Wolynski - - ------------------------------ Date: Sat, 28 Mar 1998 09:47:18 -0500 From: "Frank V. Wolynski" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Market Direction At 08:24 3/28/98 -0500, Jeffry White wrote: >"General market top reversals are USUALLY LATE SIGNALS -- the last straw >before a cave in. In most cases, distribution or selling in individual >market leaders has, for days or even weeks, preceeded the approaching >market break.... > Excerpts from IBD Top 10 percentage losers for the week. # 4 Transportation - Airlines @ -3.1% # 9 Medical-Drug/Diversified @ -2.5% #17 Auto Mfrs-Domestic @ -2.1% #22 Finance-Investment Brokers @ -1.6% Excerpts from IBD Top percentage gainers for the week: # 1 Metal Ores-Gold/Silver @ +15.6% # 2 Oil & Gas-Drilling @ + 8.4% # 6 Machinery-Const/Mining @ + 5.7% 5 other Oil related groups showed up in the top 10 percentage gainers for the week. I am amazed the Bldg-Resident/Commrcl group held up this past week. What with the Long Bond inching up. Group # 13 (lost 5 in ranking, gained .7%) Not that I'm predicting anything, I guess the record setting home starts reported for the week, helped. They may be safe as long as the long bond doesn't break above 6.2%. I'm not trying to glean anything or persuade anyone, just a report on activity that I'm sure most of you have been observing anyway. My personal take is that some heretofore leader groups are undergoing distribution as observed directly from the charts of individual securities, others are being accumulated! (How's that for a good, middle of the road, noncommital observation of the obvious! I'm not even involved in politics!) I guess the Metal Ores move surprised me more than anything. Of course the Central Banks will probably come out and sell some more, but Gold did find its heretofore bottom at approx $300/ounce, then reversed. Well, here's a toast to Gold, Oil and Interest rates being a false rally! "Make it so Number One!" Frank Wolynski - - ------------------------------ Date: Sat, 28 Mar 1998 09:03:28 -0600 From: Dave Cameron Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Market Direction Jeffry White wrote: > > For anyone who tries to follow the WON "M", I offer my thoughts. > Distribution in all indices on Wednesday and Friday in the Nasdaq have > me cautious. Sentiment approaching 52 week numbers. We may find a > bottom without an intermediate move to the downside, or several more > distribution days along a sideways move. I don't guess, I just get > cautious. The market will tell you if you let it. More distribution, > I'm out. I'm not going to get into the disagreement, here, but I don't understand. I own 8 stocks (a max for me), and none of them are down more than a couple percent from their highs. To me, it seems that unless some of them start dropping through recent support levels, I'm not selling a thing no matter what the general indices are doing. Am I missing something here? Dave Cameron - - ------------------------------ Date: Sat, 28 Mar 1998 10:15:21 -0500 From: Connie Mack Rea Subject: [CANSLIM] Worth a Look Members-- Hardly a day passes that a member does not ask about a stock he holds. What would I do with it? You know that I am reticent about giving advice to others on precise actions, for I don't want the member to make a poor decision on my account. I would speak without reservation with Tom on a stock; and I have so spoken in the past. But Tom and I have been around the block a couple of times and can dismiss the thought that one would ever hold the other personally accountable for advice that went sour. What I might advise today might not be what I'd advise after tomorrow's action. I seem to be much better at operating in the short term. However, of late, I am acting against what the market is telling me. I.e., technically the market looks strong; therefore, I should be more in than the 40% that I am. I just can't get rid of my gut feeling that sitting down is the best position. My position on members' questions is to gladly take a look at the charts and point out my reading. Should anyone buy, sell, or hold? I would rather not say. I have finally answered all the personal mail from members. Some of your questions have set me to thinking about problems I have not examined in a long time. It is good for me to explain rather than just do. A stock that I kicked out this morning--in fact, the only one--is not a stock to buy but one to watch, for it has powerful characteristics. The stock is INVA. Pull up a 3-mos chart on BigCharts and click on MoneyFlow. I read the chart in this way. The MF has been uniform at a neutral level for over a month and a half. The price has risen modestly against this uniformity. This is to be read as a slight weakness. From the first of February to the middle, MF tracks the move from 15 to 19. The MF has risen from zero to 26 million. Then there is a a sharp correction from 19 to 13.5, but the MF refuses to follow so precipitously; it holds at 17 million for over three weeks, and this against a big decline in price. A strongly positive point. Draw a trend line on MF from the middle of February to the present. Draw a second on the price chart from the top in February to the low in the latter part of March. Notice the flat, and in this instance powerful, line in the MF window as opposed to the declining one in the price window. Note, too, that the MF has resisted the last 5-6 days of decline in the price. Both are positive divergences. The 5/10/15 EMA gave a sell two days ago, and the SAR reversed Friday. The OBV [On Balance Volume] is a look-alike chart. That both the MF and OBV are positively divergent is unusual, even rare. Out of my data base of over 250 stocks I came up with but one Friday. The Slow Stochastic blue line is about to pass through the red; this passing is an early and presumptuous buy. To temper your enthusiasm, you may wait until the blue line passes through the zero line. However, you may wait to see the 5/10/15 EMA go to a buy and then use the Slow Stochastic as a confirmation. Remember that both the OBV and the MF have for 5-6 days been positively divergent with price. Because of this late positive divergence, I anticipate that the price will respond quickly to the next 5/10/15 EMA buy signal. Had the divergence appeared a month ago, I would be less sure. The MACD has told the truth for these last three months. It now says to expect a downturn, and that downturn continues. The Volulme+ indicator shows a nice, slight upward bias for three months. The last few days' volume shows nothing ominous. Pull up a 6-mos chart. INVA is getting down to two support areas: 13.25 and 12.75. To break these is to expect further deterioration. A 1-year chart offers nothing to change my reading thus far. What may I expect from this stock? This would be a presumptuous strategy. If INVA doesn't breach the 13.25-12.75 resistance, I'd buy a couple hundred shares at 13.5. Two hundred more at 14; two more at 14.5, and a final 200 at 15. Here I'd hold. I'd expect the 5/10/15 EMA to have given a buy. The SAR should have already reversed to buy or be close. Both the Slow and Fast Stochastic ought to have undergone a bullish cross [blue line crossing the red]. The Fast Stochastic will have probably crossed the zero line. The MACD ought to be rising and have given a buy. If all goes well, I can expect to see 16.5 and then 19. If all my buy points have been met, I own 800 shares at about 14.125. I would be sure to put a stop at 13.125. or 13.25 [7% or so]. This should get you out at about even, depending on what your commissions have been. If you're paying more than $30 round trip, your paying a lot of money to be trading. With some houses, you can round trip for $15. On the upside, you may wish to sell half at 16.5 and set another stop for the remaining 400 at 15.25 [a pretty lenient stop]. Then sell 200 at 19 and take a flyer on the remaining 200. A rule that approaches the axiomatic: Don't ever take a loss once you have a profit. Connie Mack - - ------------------------------ Date: Sat, 28 Mar 1998 09:50:49 -0600 From: Dave Cameron Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] CHTT I don't really see a c-and-h here, but I do see a breakout at 20-1/2 or so which failed in Feb. and succeeded in Mar. It still looks to be climbing. I don't think its all that extended. My only gripe would be the earnings pattern. Its too volatile for me. Dave Cameron - - ------------------------------ Date: Sat, 28 Mar 1998 09:57:56 -0600 From: Dave Cameron Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Worth a Look Connie Mack Rea wrote: > > Members-- > > What I might advise today might not be what I'd advise after tomorrow's > action. I seem to be much better at operating in the short term. > However, of late, I am acting against what the market is telling me. > I.e., technically the market looks strong; therefore, I should be more > in than the 40% that I am. I just can't get rid of my gut feeling that > sitting down is the best position. > Interesting.... Jeffry has pointed out why he is watching to see if the market is topping. Connie can't find any strong technical reason that it is, yet his gut feeling tells him otherwise. Gut feeling for experienced traders can often be a good thing. OTOH, Connie has had this gut feeling for 4 weeks now, and the general indices have advanced somewhat steadily during that time. This is not to say I disagree, only to point out that rules have exceptions, opinions may not work out in the short run. I am AWFUL at reading the market. I have never succeeded in guessing, so I guess I am CANSLI in my approach. I admit it, and have given up trying. I would point out that current events may be misleading because of end-of-quarter window dressing by the big players. Cheers, Dave Cameron - - ------------------------------ Date: Sat, 28 Mar 1998 12:44:56 -0500 From: Peter Newell Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Market Direction We do appear to be churning a bit and IBD even mentioned this last week. Still above the 20dma and nh/nl seems to be okay. I have been taken out of several stocks lately. However strong replacements have appeared. Peter Newell - ---------- > From: Dave Cameron > To: canslim@lists.xmission.com > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Market Direction > Date: Saturday, March 28, 1998 10:03 AM > > Jeffry White wrote: > > > > For anyone who tries to follow the WON "M", I offer my thoughts. > > Distribution in all indices on Wednesday and Friday in the Nasdaq have > > me cautious. Sentiment approaching 52 week numbers. We may find a > > bottom without an intermediate move to the downside, or several more > > distribution days along a sideways move. I don't guess, I just get > > cautious. The market will tell you if you let it. More distribution, > > I'm out. > > I'm not going to get into the disagreement, here, but I don't understand. > I own 8 stocks (a max for me), and none of them are down more than a > couple percent from their highs. To me, it seems that unless some of > them start dropping through recent support levels, I'm not selling a > thing no matter what the general indices are doing. > > Am I missing something here? > > Dave Cameron > > - - - ------------------------------ Date: Sat, 28 Mar 1998 10:01:09 -0800 From: "Ken Davidson" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Market Direction It's kind of funny listening to all the different arguments on market direction. Of course they are all valid but It reminds me of the reason why I left stock trading for index trading with credit spreads. I don't have to worry about the exact direction up or down and it's easier to gauge. Looking at the bigger picture is easier because no matter how overbought, oversold, distributed a stock or index is there are always more reasons to drive them lower or higher. Just to remind everyone in case you think I'm a flake I've been trading stocks and indexes for over 15 years full time and lived rather well through the 1987 crash buying cheap stock. Some people then thought the crash was coming, some didn't, kind of like how you guys sound. Even I have wondered if were in another blow off period today but to be truthful, I also don't really care! I would agree though that the most important thing to do is to look at the individual stock. Not every stock went down in the crash!! By the way I'm not saying were about to crash here either. The move were having right now almost looks identical to the move last year in May June with less volatility. Ken The information contained in this commentary is based upon data that is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed, and subject to change without notice. All projections, forecasts, opinions, and track records cannot be guaranteed to equal our past performance. Persons reading this are responsible for their actions. Officers and employees of this publication may at times have a position in the securities mentioned, or related services. - - ------------------------------ End of canslim-digest V2 #166 ***************************** To unsubscribe to canslim-digest, send an email to "majordomo@xmission.com" with "unsubscribe canslim-digest" in the body of the message. For information on digests or retrieving files and old messages send "help" to the same address. Do not use quotes in your message.