From: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com (canslim-digest) To: canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Subject: canslim-digest V2 #1819 Reply-To: canslim Sender: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Errors-To: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Precedence: bulk Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable X-No-Archive: yes canslim-digest Thursday, November 15 2001 Volume 02 : Number 1819 In this issue: Re: [CANSLIM] investors.com problem RE: [CANSLIM] BVF Re: [CANSLIM] did you get a Jtrader advertisement - Please stop Re: [CANSLIM] BVF Re: [CANSLIM] IBD Investors Corner EPS ratings. Re: [CANSLIM] IBD Investors Corner EPS ratings. Re: [CANSLIM] IBD Investors Corner EPS ratings. Re: [CANSLIM] BVF Re: [CANSLIM] IBD Investors Corner EPS ratings. Re: [CANSLIM] B/O's Re: [CANSLIM] LLURs + Double Bottoms ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Date: Thu, 15 Nov 2001 07:42:54 -0500 From: "Ann" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] investors.com problem I've had this problem often. It usually seems to happen when I go back and forth from Daily to Weekly to Check-up. I just log off and log on again to solve it. Ann - ----- Original Message ----- From: "Norman" To: Sent: Tuesday, November 13, 2001 8:45 PM Subject: [CANSLIM] investors.com problem : Are any other subscribers having trouble with being logged off this site and : getting the message to the effect that 'your logon is already being used'? : I keep getting logged off after several minutes to several hours logged on. : Customer service has not been able to help me. Even changed my pw and un to : no avail. : : Norm : : : - : -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" : -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or : -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. : - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 15 Nov 2001 11:21:23 -0500 From: "Tangen, Eric" Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] BVF Since you all asked, here's my .02 on BVF and float. I can't believe I'm expected to do actual WORK around here ;) 1. Float turnover days - the number of days it takes for the float to turn - has been a pretty constant 140-150 days over the last three months. I call this sleepy trading. Price action gets real exciting when this number drops to 5-30 days. Even with the 4 million share day yesterday, float turnover was reduced only from 151 to 147. FYI: float on BVF is 110,000,000. 2. My upper channel is at 50.68 or 51.09 depending on whether you go by a close or a high; 34 is the lower channel (recently moved up from 29).. Since the float turnover is pretty long on this stock right now, you can get these same numbers with long term support and resistance lines. 3. I have some volume weighted price supports and resistance values I calculate - yesterday, these come out at 44.5 and 46.3. Stock has been trading above my volume weighted price averages for most of this whole consolidation phase, which is a sign of strenth. 4. Float analysis "theory" isn't to the point where it can take into account secondary offerings and stock buybacks. Futher work remains to be done in this area. ERIC TANGEN - -----Original Message----- From: Spencer48@aol.com [mailto:Spencer48@aol.com] Sent: Wednesday, November 14, 2001 3:36 PM To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] BVF Eric and Katherine: As I understand the concept, float analysis relates the volume over a period of time to the float number available. If-over that time-the volume ='s the float, AND THE STOCK HAS BEEN TRADING SIDEWAYS (IE. CONSOLIDATING), then it can be assumed that the stock has been moving from weak to strong hands (particularly in JEC's case, because it didn't fall today). Eric, is that how you evaluate "float analysis"? jans In a message dated 11/14/2001 4:07:32 PM Eastern Standard Time, kmalm@earthlink.net writes: << We should get Eric T. to do his float analysis for us. Eric, you around today? >> - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 15 Nov 2001 08:29:44 -0800 (PST) From: Fanus Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] did you get a Jtrader advertisement - Please stop I didn't get it, but I get all the mails speculating who got it and why. Just delete spam and try keeping the CANSLIM list mostly CANSLIM. - - Fanus - --- Kent Norman wrote: > I don't think I did the Float Analysis. Best I > remember I looked it over and that was all. > > I think he picked us from this list. > > Kent > > --- Bill Triffet wrote: > > Yes I did. Did you by chance just sign up for that > > Float Analysis site? I > > thinking that is how I got it. If it is...he's got > > some 'splainin' to do! > > > > -Bill > > > > ----- Original Message ----- > > From: "Kent Norman" > > To: "CANSLIM" > > Sent: Wednesday, November 14, 2001 2:08 PM > > Subject: [CANSLIM] did you get a Jtrader > > advertisement > > > > > > > I just got spam from Warren > > > > > for J trader. Did you folks also get one? > > > > > > Kent Norman > > > > > > > __________________________________________________ > > > Do You Yahoo!? > > > Find the one for you at Yahoo! Personals > > > http://personals.yahoo.com > > > > > > - > > > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email > > "majordomo@xmission.com" > > > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > > > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in > your > > email. > > > > > > - > > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email > > "majordomo@xmission.com" > > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your > email. > > > __________________________________________________ > Do You Yahoo!? > Find the one for you at Yahoo! Personals > http://personals.yahoo.com > > - > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email > "majordomo@xmission.com" > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. __________________________________________________ Do You Yahoo!? Find the one for you at Yahoo! Personals http://personals.yahoo.com - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 15 Nov 2001 10:31:42 -0600 From: "Katherine Malm" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] BVF Eric, Doesn't it make you feel terrific to give to your needy friends? The holiday season is upon us, afterall. Thanks a million for going to the effort. I've not yet had a chance to completely absorb the info from the site you gave the other day, so I appreciate you using this as a "learning example." As you were learning about float analysis, did you read the text or go to a seminar? I see this as a very useful addition to interpretation of P/V action. Katherine kmalm@earthlink.net - ----- Original Message ----- From: "Tangen, Eric" To: Sent: Thursday, November 15, 2001 10:21 AM Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] BVF > Since you all asked, here's my .02 on BVF and float. I can't believe I'm > expected to do actual WORK around here ;) > > 1. Float turnover days - the number of days it takes for the float to turn - > has been a pretty constant 140-150 days over the last three months. I call > this sleepy trading. Price action gets real exciting when this number drops > to 5-30 days. Even with the 4 million share day yesterday, float turnover > was reduced only from 151 to 147. FYI: float on BVF is 110,000,000. > > 2. My upper channel is at 50.68 or 51.09 depending on whether you go by a > close or a high; 34 is the lower channel (recently moved up from 29).. Since > the float turnover is pretty long on this stock right now, you can get these > same numbers with long term support and resistance lines. > > 3. I have some volume weighted price supports and resistance values I > calculate - yesterday, these come out at 44.5 and 46.3. Stock has been > trading above my volume weighted price averages for most of this whole > consolidation phase, which is a sign of strenth. > > 4. Float analysis "theory" isn't to the point where it can take into account > secondary offerings and stock buybacks. Futher work remains to be done in > this area. > > > ERIC TANGEN > > > > -----Original Message----- > From: Spencer48@aol.com [mailto:Spencer48@aol.com] > Sent: Wednesday, November 14, 2001 3:36 PM > To: canslim@lists.xmission.com > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] BVF > > > Eric and Katherine: > > As I understand the concept, float analysis relates the volume over a > period of time to the float number available. If-over that time-the volume > ='s the float, AND THE STOCK HAS BEEN TRADING SIDEWAYS (IE. CONSOLIDATING), > then it can be assumed that the stock has been moving from weak to strong > hands (particularly in JEC's case, because it didn't fall today). > > > Eric, is that how you evaluate "float analysis"? > > jans > > > In a message dated 11/14/2001 4:07:32 PM Eastern Standard Time, > kmalm@earthlink.net writes: > > << We should get Eric T. to do his float analysis for us. Eric, you around > today? > >> > > - > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. > > - > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 15 Nov 2001 09:36:00 -0800 From: "Bill Triffet" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] IBD Investors Corner EPS ratings. This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------=_NextPart_000_0053_01C16DB8.EFE92A90 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable I remember reading in HTMMIS that when a stock appeared in Time or the = WSJ it was at the top of its game and was time to bail. Perhaps now in = this new information age, if you read it in IBD - it's too late! (g) - -Bill Triffet ----- Original Message -----=20 From: Tom Worley=20 To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20 Sent: Wednesday, November 14, 2001 8:49 PM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] IBD Investors Corner EPS ratings. Fat chance I'll ever post the stocks I own in my IRA (now up 84+% year = to date). They would be likely to stick them in Investors Corner, and = destroy them in a week! - ------=_NextPart_000_0053_01C16DB8.EFE92A90 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
I remember reading in HTMMIS that when = a stock=20 appeared in Time or the WSJ it was at the top of its game and was time = to bail.=20 Perhaps now in this new information age, if you read it in IBD - it's = too late!=20 (g)
 
-Bill Triffet
----- Original Message -----
From:=20 Tom = Worley=20
Sent: Wednesday, November 14, = 2001 8:49=20 PM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] IBD = Investors=20 Corner EPS ratings.
 
Fat chance I'll ever post the stocks I own in my = IRA (now up=20 84+% year to date). They would be likely to stick them in Investors = Corner,=20 and destroy them in a week!
 
- ------=_NextPart_000_0053_01C16DB8.EFE92A90-- - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 15 Nov 2001 11:35:31 -0600 From: "Katherine Malm" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] IBD Investors Corner EPS ratings. This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------=_NextPart_000_0044_01C16DC9.A1FDBF60 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Just a thought, Tom. Investor's Corner is always post-analysis. I would = think it to be a sign of your excellent investing skill that they would = use the stocks that you have purchased and already sold as their = examples! Katherine ----- Original Message -----=20 From: Bill Triffet=20 To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20 Sent: Thursday, November 15, 2001 11:36 AM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] IBD Investors Corner EPS ratings. I remember reading in HTMMIS that when a stock appeared in Time or the = WSJ it was at the top of its game and was time to bail. Perhaps now in = this new information age, if you read it in IBD - it's too late! (g) -Bill Triffet ----- Original Message -----=20 From: Tom Worley=20 To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20 Sent: Wednesday, November 14, 2001 8:49 PM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] IBD Investors Corner EPS ratings. Fat chance I'll ever post the stocks I own in my IRA (now up 84+% = year to date). They would be likely to stick them in Investors Corner, = and destroy them in a week! - ------=_NextPart_000_0044_01C16DC9.A1FDBF60 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
Just a thought, Tom. Investor's Corner = is always=20 post-analysis. I would think it to be a sign of your = excellent investing=20 skill that they would use the stocks that you have purchased and = already=20 sold as their examples!
 
Katherine
----- Original Message -----
From:=20 Bill=20 Triffet
Sent: Thursday, November 15, = 2001 11:36=20 AM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] IBD = Investors=20 Corner EPS ratings.

I remember reading in HTMMIS that = when a stock=20 appeared in Time or the WSJ it was at the top of its game and was time = to=20 bail. Perhaps now in this new information age, if you read it in IBD - = it's=20 too late! (g)
 
-Bill Triffet
----- Original Message -----
From:=20 Tom=20 Worley
Sent: Wednesday, November 14, = 2001 8:49=20 PM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] IBD = Investors=20 Corner EPS ratings.
 
Fat chance I'll ever post the stocks I own in my = IRA (now=20 up 84+% year to date). They would be likely to stick them in = Investors=20 Corner, and destroy them in a week!
 
- ------=_NextPart_000_0044_01C16DC9.A1FDBF60-- - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 15 Nov 2001 09:41:55 -0800 From: "Bill Triffet" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] IBD Investors Corner EPS ratings. This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------=_NextPart_000_005C_01C16DB9.C369E940 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable I forgot to add: in today's New America they mentioned Krispy Kreme = Donuts...(rip). - -Bill Triffet - ------=_NextPart_000_005C_01C16DB9.C369E940 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
I forgot to add: in today's New America = they=20 mentioned Krispy Kreme Donuts...(rip).
 
-Bill = Triffet
- ------=_NextPart_000_005C_01C16DB9.C369E940-- - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 15 Nov 2001 13:21:41 EST From: Spencer48@aol.com Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] BVF Tom: Thanks for a thoughtful perspective. jans In a message dated 11/14/2001 10:09:46 PM Eastern Standard Time, stkguru@netside.net writes: << With only 4 million shares of the new 12 million offer trading today, suggests to me that most of the buyers of the offering (all likely to be institutional) held onto their shares instead of immediately dumping them and buying them back. Don't assume that earnings per share will automatically decrease as a result of a primary offering. It all depends on what they do with the fresh cash. For example, if they have an acquisition already lined up for cash, it could be immediately additive to earnings. Or maybe buy new equipment that makes their production line not only more cost efficient, but increases capacity (important if they were already near full capacity and unable to grow). Or maybe buy a competing or complimentary product line with an already established market... >> - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 15 Nov 2001 13:43:21 EST From: Spencer48@aol.com Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] IBD Investors Corner EPS ratings. Bill: Did you read that? The article says that Krispy Kreme is hoping to expand their sales by using smaller stores. They believe the smaller store will add value to the larger (regional) factory store in that the smaller stores will be able to make the dougnuts more efficiently. Doesn't that seem wrongheaded? The reason customers buy "fresh-baked" dougnuts is because they are freshly baked. How's Krispy going to advertise: "We "fresh-bake". Not once, but TWICE." jans In a message dated 11/15/2001 12:38:28 PM Eastern Standard Time, btriffet@earthlink.net writes: << I forgot to add: in today's New America they mentioned Krispy Kreme Donuts...(rip). >> - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 15 Nov 2001 13:59:32 EST From: Spencer48@aol.com Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] B/O's esetser: You could be right about that. I've re-read it, and to me his view comes across as kind of equivocal (which may be the way he wants it). Anyway, here is the full text from IBD.com (By the way, if any IBD gnome is reading this-my name is Tom Worley;): Ask Bill O'Neil, 10/19/01 "The Big Picture" says we are in a confirmed rally. Yet many quality stocks are reversing their breakouts. Could this mean the market will reverse again? - - Submitted from Allendale, N.J. The lack of breakouts has more to do with the fact the market suffered through a climactic sell-off last month. Stocks are building the right side of their bases, and it may be weeks or even months before they're ready to be bought, which is normal. True, more than a few breakouts have failed. But many were the product of unsound bases - - either too short or showing too much adverse volume within the base. Others, especially outside the medical sector, are doing fine. Keep an eye on the major averages and, as always, cut any initial losses quickly jans In a message dated 11/14/2001 10:18:25 PM Eastern Standard Time, esetser@covad.net writes: << Oops, I think that was "..UP TO 10-14 weeks", which means you want to buy right at the follow-through sometimes, and wait sometimes??? >> - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 15 Nov 2001 14:34:40 -0600 From: "Katherine Malm" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] LLURs + Double Bottoms This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------=_NextPart_000_00B0_01C16DE2.A8A66C40 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable John, Thanks for the kind words. Katherine ----- Original Message -----=20 From: John Adair=20 To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20 Sent: Wednesday, November 14, 2001 6:57 PM Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] LLURs + Double Bottoms I like your analysis.=20 I think swing trading requires a different personality. Usually = someone willing to spend a lot of time at their computer during market = hours. =20 John=20 =20 -----Original Message----- From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com = [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Katherine Malm Sent: Tuesday, November 13, 2001 4:50 PM To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] LLURs + Double Bottoms =20 Looks like we're of like mind on much of this. I was having a similar = discussion with someone just today and would like to speak to the idea = of CANSLIM as a trading style. =20 The CANSLIM approach comes at a cost. That is, it is a growth stock = investing strategy plain and simple. It says that if you're going to = make a lot of money on a stock, you want to get it when its growth rate = is accelerating. That means that, if you discount that future = accelerating earnings stream to the present, this stock should have a = higher price than a stock that has a low or decelerating growth rate. = Furthermore, the price should appreciate at a faster rate as more = information becomes known about the company, its products and its = markets. As a result, the downside to CANSLIM is that if the majority of = stocks in the market are experiencing decelerating growth rates, the = universe of stocks that you can pick from greatly diminishes. Thus, the = "M" in CANSLIM. =20 WON always says "stay out of the market" when stocks are declining. = What he's saying is, you can't apply CANSLIM as easily when the majority = of the stocks are going down. Why? Because macroevents are driving up = interest rates and/or inflation and these combine to wreak havoc on a = company's earnings. Add that to an environment where people were = mispricing stocks to the upside and you have a recipe for disaster =3D = Big Bad Bear. Plain and simple, but I don't think most people get that, = and certainly not if they've just started investing in CANSLIM since = early 2000.=20 =20 On the other hand, I think it's a disservice to categorize people = investing in '98 or '99, especially if they were new to CANSLIM, as = "throwing darts." While it may be true there were some who did, all the = while calling it CANSLIM because they were reading IBD, there is plenty = of evidence to show that there were many more who were doing their = fundamental homework on these companies and investing in them at the = right time using technicals. There seems to be plenty of people like = that here on the discussion list, and I'd like to think that's why = they're here. Going forward, I believe that the people who follow the = same CANSLIM discipline will outperform the market going forward. That's = not any different than what you are doing, selecting good companies in = good industries with good fundamentals.=20 =20 Swing trading takes advantage of mispricing of stocks in a short = period of time. It works in any market, but it requires trading only on = technicals. A swing trader could care less what the industry is doing or = what the fundamentals are doing. The people who do this, including = yourself, make money when they stick to their discipline. For a CANSLIM = trader, however, the time frame is different. They are looking at = intermediate time periods and technical patterns within them. = Fundamentals matter here. So, during a period of time where earnings are = decelerating, they have the option of staying out of the market or = shorting former winners with deteriorating fundamentals. =20 When the market finally turns in their favor, they will find winning = stocks with accelerating fundamentals and/or proven turnarounds.(One of = the "N"s). But the final move off the bottom is never a CANSLIM play. = The stuff moving off the bottom is either (1) grossly underpriced as a = result of overreaction to the events of 9/11, (2) big cap stocks that = have low growth rates, but are perceived as "safe" investments, (3) = familiar names that people rush to because they were "big winners" in = the last bull. Not a single one of those would qualify as a CANSLIM = stock! I think if people put that in perspective, they say, "I do not = participate in that move because to do so would cause me to act outside = my discipline." In the end, "luck" is about being prepared and taking = the right action when the opportunity presents itself. =20 Respectfully, Katherine =20 =20 ----- Original Message -----=20 From: Gene Ricci=20 To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20 Sent: Tuesday, November 13, 2001 4:27 PM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] LLURs + Double Bottoms =20 Katherine, I have no doubt that pure CANSLIM will work in an upward = trending market, once it is clearly established. I also know that if the = market continues as it has, CANSLIM is not the answer. I believe that = the IBD/DGO RS data is too slow and the Grp RS slower yet. IBD just = started to graduate their A/D ratings and hopefully they'll do the same = for RS/GrpRS. =20 I also believe in market cycles and know that technology is about to = come in favor. My goal is to identify the best companies in 4 or 5 = industries (competitive advantage, good management, customer acceptance, = new products, blah, blah) .... and because of the last year or so ... = disregard current EPS and RS ratings.. because they'll change = drastically once the orders start rolling in. =20 Back to darts... if one started CANSLIM in 1998 or 1999 most of their = darts managed to find good companies and stuck.... if however someone = started in 2000 (and are still with us) they are wondering what happened = to their darts.... they fall out just when one reaches for a little = profit. =20 In addition to recent trading (since August) of fallen angels, the = only trading style that has really worked for me in 2001 is Swing = Trading with an average 3 day holding period. My watchlist comes from = stocks with =3D> ratings of EPS 77; RS 60 and SMR B. =20 Prefer Fallen Angels over Bottom Fishing even though I've caught = hundreds of fresh water striped bass (prized game fish) in Lake = Texoma... with the bait just 3 turns off the bottom. =20 Gene =20 =20 ----- Original Message -----=20 From: Katherine Malm=20 To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20 Sent: Tuesday, November 13, 2001 2:23 PM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] LLURs + Double Bottoms =20 Gene, I think the difference might be, however--do the darts or the = "good stocks in the right industries emerging from sound bases" give the = most consistent returns over time. If you believe it to be darts, then = you believe in the efficient market hypothesis. If you believe in the = efficient market hypothesis, then you do not believe that a person can = consistently generate excess returns on the market. If that is so, then = why would a person bother to invest in individual stocks at all? This is = not meant as any indictment of you personally by any means, just that a = comment like that seems to negate the whole reason that we choose to = follow a particular trading style--CANSLIM. =20 Katherine ----- Original Message -----=20 From: Gene Ricci=20 To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20 Sent: Tuesday, November 13, 2001 2:06 PM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] LLURs + Double Bottoms =20 I seem to remember that throwing darts at the IBD newspaper produced = great winners during that time period. Almost like throwing darts at a = list of 'fallen angels' over the past 3 weeks. =20 =20 ----- Original Message -----=20 From: Bill Triffet=20 To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20 Sent: Tuesday, November 13, 2001 1:51 PM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] LLURs =20 ----- Original Message ----- From: "Katherine Malm" To: Sent: Tuesday, November 13, 2001 10:55 AM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] LLURs > I'd agree, Norm. This is the perfect environment for LLUR's. Most = common to > find them in new bulls. If the market hadn't been suffering, most = often, > these stocks would have broken out of more traditional patterns like = flat > bases or C&H. Solid breakouts from these patterns are more often = than not > the strongest players going into a new upswing. If I remember right, = YHOO > and AOL emerged from these patterns coming out of the correction in = late > '98. I seem to remember my best breakouts in late'98 were from double = bottoms (related to the drop in early Oct of that year). I would expect to = see more of these also. -Bill Triffet - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - ------=_NextPart_000_00B0_01C16DE2.A8A66C40 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
John, Thanks for the kind = words.
 
Katherine
----- Original Message -----
From:=20 John=20 Adair
Sent: Wednesday, November 14, = 2001 6:57=20 PM
Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] LLURs + = Double=20 Bottoms

I like=20 your analysis.

I=20 think swing trading requires a different personality. Usually someone = willing=20 to spend a lot of time at their computer during  market hours.  =20

John=20

 

-----Original=20 Message-----
From: = owner-canslim@lists.xmis= sion.com=20 [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On=20 Behalf Of Katherine Malm
Sent: Tuesday, November 13, = 2001 4:50=20 PM
To:=20 canslim@lists.xmission.com
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] LLURs + = Double=20 Bottoms

 

Looks=20 like we're of like mind on much of this. I was having a similar=20 discussion with someone just today and would like to speak to the idea = of=20 CANSLIM as a trading style.

 

The=20 CANSLIM approach comes at a cost. That is, it is a growth stock = investing=20 strategy plain and simple. It says that if you're going to make a lot = of money=20 on a stock, you want to get it when its growth rate is accelerating. = That=20 means that, if you discount that future accelerating earnings stream = to the=20 present, this stock should have a higher price than a stock that has a = low or=20 decelerating growth rate. Furthermore, the price should appreciate at = a faster=20 rate as more information becomes known about the company, its products = and its=20 markets. As a result, the downside to CANSLIM is that if the majority = of=20 stocks in the market are experiencing decelerating growth rates, the = universe=20 of stocks that you can pick from greatly diminishes. Thus, the "M" in=20 CANSLIM.

 

WON=20 always says "stay out of the market" when stocks are declining. What = he's=20 saying is, you can't apply CANSLIM as easily when the majority of the = stocks=20 are going down. Why? Because macroevents are driving up interest rates = and/or=20 inflation and these combine to wreak havoc on a company's = earnings.=20 Add that to an environment where people were mispricing stocks to the = upside=20 and you have a recipe for disaster =3D Big Bad Bear. Plain and = simple, but=20 I don't think most people get that, and certainly not if they've just = started=20 investing in CANSLIM since early 2000.

 

On the=20 other hand, I think it's a disservice to categorize people investing = in '98 or=20 '99, especially if they were new to CANSLIM, as "throwing darts." = While it may=20 be true there were some who did, all the while calling it CANSLIM = because they=20 were reading IBD, there is plenty of evidence to show that there were = many=20 more who were doing their fundamental homework on these companies and=20 investing in them at the right time using technicals. There seems to = be plenty=20 of people like that here on the discussion list, and I'd like to think = that's=20 why they're here. Going forward, I believe that the people who = follow the=20 same CANSLIM discipline will outperform the market going forward. = That's not=20 any different than what you are doing, selecting good companies in = good=20 industries with good fundamentals.

 

Swing=20 trading takes advantage of mispricing of stocks in a short period of = time. It=20 works in any market, but it requires trading only on technicals. A = swing=20 trader could care less what the industry is doing or what the = fundamentals are=20 doing. The people who do this, including yourself, make money when = they stick=20 to their discipline. For a CANSLIM trader, however, the time frame is=20 different. They are looking at intermediate time periods and technical = patterns within them. Fundamentals matter here. So, during a period of = time=20 where earnings are decelerating, they have the option of staying out = of the=20 market or shorting former winners with deteriorating=20 fundamentals.

 

When=20 the market finally turns in their favor, they will find winning stocks = with=20 accelerating fundamentals and/or proven turnarounds.(One of the "N"s). = But the=20 final move off the bottom is never a CANSLIM play. The stuff moving = off the=20 bottom is either (1) grossly underpriced as a result of overreaction = to the=20 events of 9/11, (2) big cap stocks that have low growth rates, but are = perceived as "safe" investments, (3) familiar names that people rush = to=20 because they were "big winners" in the last bull. Not a single one of = those=20 would qualify as a CANSLIM stock! I think if people put that in = perspective,=20 they say, "I do not participate in that move because to do so would = cause me=20 to act outside my discipline." In the end, "luck" is about being = prepared and=20 taking the right action when the opportunity presents=20 itself.

 

Respectfully,

Katherine

 

 

----- = Original=20 Message -----

From: Gene Ricci =

To: canslim@lists.xmission.com= =20

Sent: Tuesday, = November=20 13, 2001 4:27 PM

Subject: Re: = [CANSLIM] LLURs=20 + Double Bottoms

 

Katherine,=20 I have no doubt that pure CANSLIM will work in an upward trending = market, once=20 it is clearly established. I also know that if the market = continues as it=20 has,  CANSLIM is not the answer. I believe that the = IBD/DGO RS=20 data is too slow and the Grp RS slower yet. IBD just started to = graduate their=20 A/D ratings and hopefully they'll do the same=20 for RS/GrpRS.

 

I also=20 believe in market cycles and know that technology is about to come in=20 favor. My goal is to identify the best companies in 4 or 5 = industries=20 (competitive advantage, good management, customer acceptance, new = products,=20 blah, blah) .... and because of the last year or so ... disregard = current EPS=20 and RS ratings.. because they'll change drastically once the = orders start=20 rolling in.

 

Back to=20 darts... if one started CANSLIM in 1998 or 1999 most of their = darts=20 managed to find good companies and stuck.... if however someone = started in=20 2000 (and are still with us) they are wondering what happened to their = darts.... they fall out just when one reaches for a little=20 profit.

 

In=20 addition to recent trading (since August) of fallen angels, the only = trading=20 style that has really worked for me in 2001 is Swing Trading with an = average=20 3 day holding period. My watchlist comes from stocks with  = =3D>=20 ratings of EPS 77; RS 60 and SMR B.

 

Prefer=20 Fallen Angels over Bottom Fishing even though I've caught = hundreds of=20 fresh water striped bass (prized game fish) in Lake Texoma... with the = bait=20 just 3 turns off the bottom.

 

Gene

 

 

----- = Original=20 Message -----

From: Katherine Malm=20

To: canslim@lists.xmission.com= =20

Sent: Tuesday, = November=20 13, 2001 2:23 PM

Subject: Re: = [CANSLIM] LLURs=20 + Double Bottoms

 

Gene, I = think the=20 difference might be, however--do the darts or the "good stocks in the = right=20 industries emerging from sound bases" give the most consistent returns = over=20 time. If you believe it to be darts, then you believe in the efficient = market=20 hypothesis. If you believe in the efficient market hypothesis, then = you do not=20 believe that a person can consistently generate excess returns on the = market.=20 If that is so, then why would a person bother to invest in individual = stocks=20 at all? This is not meant as any indictment of you personally by any = means,=20 just that a comment like that seems to negate the whole reason that we = choose=20 to follow a particular trading style--CANSLIM.

 

Katherine

----- = Original=20 Message -----

From: Gene Ricci =

To: canslim@lists.xmission.com= =20

Sent: Tuesday, = November=20 13, 2001 2:06 PM

Subject: Re: = [CANSLIM] LLURs=20 + Double Bottoms

 

I seem to=20 remember that throwing darts at the IBD newspaper produced great = winners=20 during that time period. Almost like throwing darts at a list of = 'fallen=20 angels' over the past 3 weeks.

 

 

----- = Original=20 Message -----

From: Bill=20 Triffet

To: canslim@lists.xmission.com= =20

Sent: Tuesday, = November=20 13, 2001 1:51 PM

Subject: Re: = [CANSLIM]=20 LLURs

 


----- Original Message=20 -----
From: "Katherine Malm" <kmalm@earthlink.net>
To: = <canslim@lists.xmission.com= >
Sent:=20 Tuesday, November 13, 2001 10:55 AM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM]=20 LLURs


> I'd agree, Norm. This is the perfect environment = for=20 LLUR's. Most common
to
> find them in new bulls. If the = market hadn't=20 been suffering, most often,
> these stocks would have broken out = of more=20 traditional patterns like flat
> bases or C&H. Solid = breakouts from=20 these patterns are more often than not
> the strongest players = going=20 into a new upswing. If I remember right, YHOO
> and AOL emerged = from=20 these patterns coming out of the correction in late
> = '98.

I seem=20 to remember my best breakouts in late'98 were from double = bottoms
(related=20 to the drop in  early Oct of that year). I would expect to see = more
of=20 these also.

-Bill Triffet


-
-To = subscribe/unsubscribe,=20 email "majordomo@xmission.com"
-In= the=20 email body, write "subscribe canslim" or
-"unsubscribe = canslim".  Do=20 not use quotes in your email.

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