From: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com (canslim-digest) To: canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Subject: canslim-digest V2 #194 Reply-To: canslim Sender: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Errors-To: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Precedence: bulk X-No-Archive: yes canslim-digest Saturday, April 18 1998 Volume 02 : Number 194 In this issue: [CANSLIM] Search engines and such [CANSLIM] Broadcom BRCM [CANSLIM] Two to watch KELL and SCTC Re: [CANSLIM] Search engines and such [CANSLIM] INTRO: Dave Voelker [CANSLIM] NEWBIE question follows... base pattern <> 80+ RS ???? Re: [CANSLIM] INTRO: Dave Voelker Re: [CANSLIM] INTRO: Dave Voelker [CANSLIM] Timeliness Interpretation Re: [CANSLIM] beware DGO Re: [CANSLIM] HPII Re: [CANSLIM] Cendant (CD) Re: [CANSLIM] INTRO: Dave Voelker Re: [CANSLIM] NEWBIE question follows... base pattern <> 80+ RS ???? Re: [CANSLIM] Timeliness Interpretation [CANSLIM] Not CS - for Jim Kelly, all else can ignore Re: [CANSLIM] HYSW Re: [CANSLIM] INTRO: Dave Voelker Re: [CANSLIM] My watch list Re: [CANSLIM] Timeliness Interpretation Re: [CANSLIM] HYSW Re: [CANSLIM] INFS Re: [CANSLIM] NEWBIE question follows... base pattern <> 80+ RS ???? [CANSLIM] AACE and MINI Re: [CANSLIM] Two to watch KELL and SCTC Re: [CANSLIM] NEWBIE question follows... base pattern <> 80+ RS ???? Re: [CANSLIM] NEWBIE question follows... base pattern <> 80+ RS ???? Re: [CANSLIM] NEWBIE question follows... base pattern <> 80+RS ???? Re: [CANSLIM] avei ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Date: Fri, 17 Apr 1998 20:35:01 -0400 From: Jeffry White <"postwhit@sover.net"@sover.net> Subject: [CANSLIM] Search engines and such > Very, very true! The only thought a person should have right now when looking > at these stocks is RISK. This group is experiencing the definition of a climax > run. A stock that trends strongly for several months and then suddenly runs up > even faster for days or weeks. Don't get me wrong, I think many of these > companies will be future leaders but they can be bought later when the > risk/reward situation has imporved. The people that bought at market this > morning think they are smart now but losses will likely be handed to them soon > enough. Anyone who purchased YHOO, XCIT,SEEK, or LCOS this morning is likely > on an emotional roller coast that is lead by PRICE and PRICE only. This is why > they will likely sell at a loss as these stock come back to earth. > > DSquires Very good point, which is why I'm short all of them and AMZN, as well. Jeffry - - ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 17 Apr 1998 20:50:02 EDT From: DCSquires Subject: [CANSLIM] Broadcom BRCM The market appears to love this stock. I found it few weeks ago on gaskinsco.com. They make chips, which is a no-no right now, but they should really be put in the internet group because they make chips that increases bandwidth in the "last mile" to our computers and cable boxes. The stock was originally priced at $12 and was revised to $24 and then opened at $70! IMO, this stock is a potential big winner as WON talks about it. Of course, I won't buy it until there is some kind of base to buy off of. I believe revenues have double quarter over quarter for the past few quarters and they are just starting to turn a profitable. here's two links on it http://www.herring.com/insider/1998/0417/broadcom.html http://gaskinsco.com/reviews.htm - - ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 17 Apr 1998 20:58:43 EDT From: DCSquires Subject: [CANSLIM] Two to watch KELL and SCTC Hi all! Here are two that I like for fresh money. SCTC... I read the earnings relaese and it appears that this company is firing on all cylinders. The chart looks good and is pulling back to a lower risk buy point. KELL is a nice C&H with good forward earning prospects. HYSW has already been mentioned and I still like. The shake out put the stock in stronger hands.....all the more reason to buy a valid BO. Dsquires - - ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 17 Apr 1998 21:35:12 -0400 (EDT) From: Deepak Kapur Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Search engines and such Jeffry, I agree with you about the valuation of internet stocks. But the way they run up, it is kind of a scary to short them. Bu the way, you have a good call on BALDF(?) a few weeks ago. What kind of discipline do you use? Give us some examples about where (at what price) you shorted them, and when you will cover, and what is stop loss? Thanks, Deepak - - ------------------------------ Date: Sat, 18 Apr 1998 00:11:16 -0400 From: Dave Voelker Subject: [CANSLIM] INTRO: Dave Voelker Hi - My name is Dave Voelker and I am excited to have found the CANSLIM list. From the few days worth of messages that I have seen so far I know that I will enjoy the conversations to come for quite some time. I am a Principal Systems Analyst in the information systems group of Fidelity Investments and so by default I stay somewhat close to the action. I have previously maintained Series 6, 7, and 63 securities licenses but have since moved away from that field. I am 32, married with my first on the way and wondering how much time I will have to pour over IBD after June 16th, our due date. I picked up WON's HTMMIS at the bookstore after spending an hour or so sampling many of the different stock books on the shelf. I was not a beginner to the markets, but I knew I was well in the dark on trading equities. I read through the book and subsequently subscribed to IBD, and on 2/2/98 I made my first CANSLIM buy, UVSGA at 33 3/8. Three weeks later UVSGA was pulling back from a high of 42 and I stopped out at 38 1/2 for a 15.4% gain less commissions. Since that time I have given back a portion of that profit but I expect to come out on top in the long run. I have been thoroughly impressed with the level of discourse that I have read so far and am anxious to participate. Thanks - Dave Voelker - - ------------------------------ Date: Sat, 18 Apr 1998 00:22:06 -0400 From: Dave Voelker Subject: [CANSLIM] NEWBIE question follows... base pattern <> 80+ RS ???? Hello all - I am new to the list and have a question about CANSLIM that has puzzled me for some time - CANSLIM recommends an RS of 80+, stocks coming off a solid base, and at or approaching new highs. I find this combination very difficult to screen for, even if it is the only thing I screen for! My understanding of RS leads me to believe that the only way I can find an RS of 80+ and a basing pattern is if the stock is rebounding from a long and/or steep decline in price, which I find suspect anyway. Most of the solid bases I see come with high RS numbers below 80, something I attribute to the fact that a basing stock should show flat price strength during the recent base period which is weighted heavier in the calculation of RS. Can you find a stock with a 90+ RS coming off a base? How does this affect your screens and what do you place more trust in, the chart or the RS? Dave Voelker - - ------------------------------ Date: Sat, 18 Apr 1998 05:15:39 -0400 From: "Frank V. Wolynski" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] INTRO: Dave Voelker At 00:11 4/18/98 -0400, Dave Voelker wrote: >Hi - > >My name is Dave Voelker and I am excited to have found the CANSLIM >list. From the few days worth of messages that I have seen so far I >know that I will enjoy the conversations to come for quite some time. > Hi Dave, I'm one of the newer members myself, but since I am having no luck sleeping this early hour in the A.M., let me be the first to welcome you. This is a great group of very helpful and knowledgable people. I consider it the lab that O'Neal needed for applying the theories and observations in HTMMIS, "How to Make Money in Stocks". Please feel free to ask questions and participate in the discussions, I know of no better place to discuss any aspect of William O'Neal's observations and writings. Frank Wolynski ( See, I get 'em right every now & then.) - - ------------------------------ Date: Sat, 18 Apr 1998 05:15:39 -0400 From: "Frank V. Wolynski" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] INTRO: Dave Voelker At 00:11 4/18/98 -0400, Dave Voelker wrote: >Hi - > >My name is Dave Voelker and I am excited to have found the CANSLIM >list. From the few days worth of messages that I have seen so far I >know that I will enjoy the conversations to come for quite some time. > Hi Dave, I'm one of the newer members myself, but since I am having no luck sleeping this early hour in the A.M., let me be the first to welcome you. This is a great group of very helpful and knowledgable people. I consider it the lab that O'Neal needed for applying the theories and observations in HTMMIS, "How to Make Money in Stocks". Please feel free to ask questions and participate in the discussions, I know of no better place to discuss any aspect of William O'Neal's observations and writings. Frank Wolynski ( See, I get 'em right every now & then.) - - ------------------------------ Date: Sat, 18 Apr 1998 05:22:33 -0400 From: "Frank V. Wolynski" Subject: [CANSLIM] Timeliness Interpretation Does anyone know or have a feel for how WON's staff assigns the timeliness ratings to securities. Some questions I have: What characteristics does a stock have to possess to receive an "A,B,C,D,E"? What triggers his system of changing the timeliness ratings? I get the sense that "A" is of course in a solid trend of new highs, price above the 50 & 200 dma's. The other apparent easy one is "E", solid trend of new lows, price beneath the 50 & 200 dma's. Are there more factors that he uses that I have overlooked? What are the criteria for "B,C,D"? Thanks for any help. Frank Wolynski - - ------------------------------ Date: Sat, 18 Apr 1998 07:10:57 -0400 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] beware DGO It's problems like this, promptly reported by us beta testers, that will hopefully keep this site available to us for free or at a reasonable cost. Tom W - -----Original Message----- From: Mike Lucero To: 'canslim@lists.xmission.com' Date: Friday, April 17, 1998 2:44 PM Subject: [CANSLIM] beware DGO >Last night, after midnight Pacific time, I noticed that the stocks I was >looking at with Daily Graphs Online weren't matching the output from my >Quotes Plus scan. For instance, stocks that were reported to be at a new >high still looked like they were in a base. After a few of those, I - - ------------------------------ Date: Sat, 18 Apr 1998 07:28:04 -0400 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] HPII RS 77 and EPS 60, along with the lack of solid and consistent revenue growth, would stop me as well. Tom W - -----Original Message----- From: Joe Scott To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Date: Friday, April 17, 1998 4:54 PM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] HPII Looked to me to be a great chart, for break out from handle. but doesn't it have something like 90% fund ownership? that would stop me, and not qualify for CANSLIM because the "I" (institutional ownership). don't know a thing joe http://www.2fords.net/joe/ - - ------------------------------ Date: Sat, 18 Apr 1998 07:38:39 -0400 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Cendant (CD) Hi Joan, I know I had some regrets selling it myself at the time, after watching how it finally took off, but still I made more money in other stocks with the capital. Now, of course, I'm glad I was out. This company has never, IMO, enjoyed the "internet connection" like so many others, even tho that was a major focus of CUC before it merged with HFS to form CD. On the other hand, dropping past profits by $100 million is also significant, and the issue of the merger with Amer Bankers, and potential new lawsuits as a result of how that turns out, will likely cause bad news to continue for some time. With three people already fired (all I believe from CUC) and the CUC CEO now apparently taking a back seat, it appears that there is clearly a problem in that marriage. On the other hand, HFS's profitability was considerably better than CUC even without this restatement, so if the HFS CEO now is solely in charge, the mkt may take some confidence from that. Either way, tho, I suspect you have "dead capital" for some time. At least one class action lawsuit was immediately filed, and likely there will be others, eventually consolidated into a single lawsuit. It likely will take a year or more, but eventually you should receive a claim form to complete and return. Typically nine months to a year after that, you would get your settlement. If you sell for a net gain (because of how long you held it), then you may or may not be eligible, depending on how the settlement is structured. If you sell after the news broke, it is unlikely to affect your eligibility, unless a new unrelated event occurs in the future further affecting it. Hope this helps Tom W - -----Original Message----- From: Joan Sherman To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Date: Friday, April 17, 1998 4:27 PM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Cendant (CD) >Hi Tom, > I'm still holding CD, but I purchased it in 12/95, so I don't think I >qualify. But, I'd be glad to >know what my status is. By the way, my broker at Merrill Lynch put me in >it at the time. >Whenever I wanted to sell it because it never moved, he said to wait. He >knew Walter Forbes >personally. I no longer deal with him, but that was my choice several >months ago. > Thanks, > > >Joan Sherman, /\~~~/\ /\~~~/\ /\~/\ /\~/\ > ** ** ** ** > Help Support Animal Rescue > > > > > > > >- > - - ------------------------------ Date: Sat, 18 Apr 1998 08:06:30 -0400 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] INTRO: Dave Voelker Welcome to the group, Dave. Glad you have already enjoyed it so much. Tom W - -----Original Message----- From: Dave Voelker To: canslim@xmission.com Date: Saturday, April 18, 1998 12:07 AM Subject: [CANSLIM] INTRO: Dave Voelker >Hi - > >My name is Dave Voelker and I am excited to have found the CANSLIM >list. From the few days worth of messages that I have seen so far I >know that I will enjoy the conversations to come for quite some time. > >I am a Principal Systems Analyst in the information systems group of >Fidelity Investments and so by default I stay somewhat close to the - - ------------------------------ Date: Sat, 18 Apr 1998 08:20:27 -0400 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] NEWBIE question follows... base pattern <> 80+ RS ???? Hi again, Dave. My screening method is pretty primitive, don't use any software or such. What I look at are lists of stocks hitting new highs, and stocks with positive earnings surprises. In the latter case, I am mostly looking for stocks that have previously been overlooked. In both cases, I am mostly looking for small cap stocks, as I see earnings growth there both stronger and more consistent than the broader mkt. With these lists, I just start going thru the DailyGraphs Online charts and note the ones I like (RS 90+, EPS 75+, decent base, etc). But even looking at the stocks others in the group find using much more sophisticated methods, I see very few with a WON definition of a solid base (e.g. 6 to 8 weeks long, tight trading range, volume drying up hopefully, near a new high, etc). Five years ago, it was not hard to find CANSLIM stocks with 6-8 week long bases and other good CS elements. Now, with this mkt continuing to move higher, any stock that has stood still for 6 to 8 weeks is virtually suspect. Tom W - -----Original Message----- From: Dave Voelker To: canslim@xmission.com Date: Saturday, April 18, 1998 12:18 AM Subject: [CANSLIM] NEWBIE question follows... base pattern <> 80+ RS ???? >Hello all - > >I am new to the list and have a question about CANSLIM that has puzzled >me for some time - CANSLIM recommends an RS of 80+, stocks coming off a >solid base, and at or approaching new highs. I find this combination >very difficult to screen for, even if it is the only thing I screen >for! My understanding of RS leads me to believe that the only way I can >find an RS of 80+ and a basing pattern is if the stock is rebounding >from a long and/or steep decline in price, which I find suspect anyway. > >Most of the solid bases I see come with high RS numbers below 80, >something I attribute to the fact that a basing stock should show flat >price strength during the recent base period which is weighted heavier >in the calculation of RS. Can you find a stock with a 90+ RS coming off >a base? How does this affect your screens and what do you place more >trust in, the chart or the RS? > >Dave Voelker > > >- > - - ------------------------------ Date: Sat, 18 Apr 1998 08:32:41 -0400 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Timeliness Interpretation Per the Daily Graphs book (I think they had something similar at the online site, but last time I looked didn't find it): TIMELINESS RATING is a proprietary rating based upon recent earnings changes and price performance indicating possible or potential relative price performance over the next 12 months. General market factors are not considered in the stock rating. Ratings presented are updated weekly. A is highest and E is lowest. While stocks with rating of A and B may outperform stocks with rating of D and E in up markets, higher rated stocks can be more volatile and may involve added risk. Price stability may be improved by giving preference to stocks with lower betas; no debt or low debt; larger capitalization with more established markets; and extended in price no more than 5% to 10% above a recent consolidation or basing area of 8 or more week' duration. Tom W - -----Original Message----- From: Frank V. Wolynski To: canslim@mail.xmission.com Date: Saturday, April 18, 1998 5:52 AM Subject: [CANSLIM] Timeliness Interpretation >Does anyone know or have a feel for how WON's staff assigns the timeliness >ratings to securities. >Some questions I have: > What characteristics does a stock have to possess to receive an >"A,B,C,D,E"? > What triggers his system of changing the timeliness ratings? > >I get the sense that "A" is of course in a solid trend of new highs, price >above the 50 & 200 dma's. > >The other apparent easy one is "E", solid trend of new lows, price beneath >the 50 & 200 dma's. > >Are there more factors that he uses that I have overlooked? >What are the criteria for "B,C,D"? > >Thanks for any help. > >Frank Wolynski > > >- > - - ------------------------------ Date: Sat, 18 Apr 1998 08:35:39 -0400 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] Not CS - for Jim Kelly, all else can ignore Jim, again tried your email address, and again bounced back. Got any better one?? Tom W - -----Original Message----- From: Mailer-Daemon@sprintmail.com Date: Saturday, April 18, 1998 7:28 AM Subject: Undeliverable Mail from >A message could not be delivered for the following reason: > >Recipient jimkely is not authorized user > >The undeliverable message was as follows: > >Received: from unknown(205.159.140.2) by mailgate32-hme2 via dsmap-1.22 > id Q_10.1.1.26/Q_10136_1_35388e6b; Sat, 18 Apr 1998 04:28:43 -0700 >Received: from txw (stkguru@sunny.netside.net [205.159.140.2]) by netside.net (8.7.3/8.7.3) with SMTP id HAA20116 for ; Sat, 18 Apr 1998 07:26:14 -0400 (EDT) >From: "Tom Worley" >To: >Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] bad address - Jim Kelly >Date: Sat, 18 Apr 1998 07:21:25 -0400 >Message-ID: <01bd6abc$1fa2c9c0$0f02000a@txw> >MIME-Version: 1.0 >Content-Type: text/plain; > charset="iso-8859-1" >Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit >X-Priority: 3 >X-MSMail-Priority: Normal >X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 4.71.1712.3 >X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft MimeOLE V4.71.1712.3 > >Jim, what I had previously sent you was that a lawsuit was already >filed, so unlikely I can get you in as lead plantiff. A $100 million >reduction in past profits is a sig restatement, and the fact that 3 >persons, apparently all from CUC, were fired over it does point blame, >so there will be evenually some settlement of the class action, I am >sure. In any case, you will be eligible as a likely member of the >class for some recovery. > >Since you held, you will need to decide what you do with the 100 >shares. My best advice is to unload on any sig rally, or else sell at >whatever point you need the tax writeoff. I suspect otherwise it will >be "dead capital" for some time. And the bad news may not be over, if >the acquisition of Amer. Bankers Ins falls thru, and there's a good >chance of that now as it was a stock swap (altho they may change the >ratio and still close the deal) then the test will be if the competing >bid at $58/share will be renewed. The mkt appears to be expecting >that, but if it doesn't happen, then Amer Bankers shareholders may >also sue CD for interfering in the original buyout which was already >on the table. In addition, CD will have a lots of expenses to write >off from the attempt, including both legal and media. Thus, my belief >that bad news will keep this price down for quite some time. > >Tom W > >-----Original Message----- >From: Jim Kelly >To: canslim@lists.xmission.com >Date: Friday, April 17, 1998 3:41 PM >Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] bad address - Jim Kelly > > >>This one came thru ok. >> >> >>-----Original Message----- >>From: Tom Worley >>To: CANSLIM >>Date: Friday, April 17, 1998 12:41 PM >>Subject: [CANSLIM] bad address - Jim Kelly >> >> >>>Jim, my email response to you bounced back as a bad address. >>> >>>Tom W >>> >>> >>> >>>- >>> >>> >> >> >> >>- >> > - - ------------------------------ Date: Sat, 18 Apr 1998 06:43:35 -0700 From: Tim Fisher Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] HYSW I thought that too. My mind got changed in a hurry. How? INFS! No more mental stops for me. That one little gap down into the toilet cost me more than any other loss I have taken on a stock. At 01:57 PM 4/17/98 -0800, you wrote: >This is one argument for keeping stops in your head, and deciding >whether or not to get out based on the close. With stops you run the >risk of these anomalous intraday price moves taking you out, where it >is not a legitimate change in price direction. Of course, without >stops you run the risk of talking yourself into keeping a stock >longer than you should. Personally, all my stops are in my head, and >once a stock gets down to where I figure I should sell, I dump it or >if I can justify it, give it another day or two to rebound. A couple >of weeks ago one of my stocks hit my stop price, but on very low >volume, I gave it another day, it has recovered 4 points. Of course >all these stories don't have a happy ending like this and you run the >risk that if something doesn't turn up it, you take a bigger hit than >you would with the stop in place. Anyway, just my stray thoughts, >hopefully somewhat helpful. > Tim Fisher, 1995 President, Pacific Fishery Biologists Ore-ROCK-On Rockhounding Web Site PFB Information tfish@spiritone.com WWW http://www.spiritone.com/~tfish -- See naked fish and rocks! - - ------------------------------ Date: Sat, 18 Apr 1998 06:43:37 -0700 From: Tim Fisher Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] INTRO: Dave Voelker Hi dave, good buy there, altho you jumped the gun on the C&H. Then again so did I and I'm glad I did. Guess you took WON's stops literally, I'm still in cause my stop was at 37-5/8 that day. After having made 15% you have two choices in my book, one is to protect it at all costs (WON), which to me seems a little artificial, i.e. what's magic about a 15% profit? The other is to loosen up (also WON, altho he I think he is looking for a 25% profit first). I loosen up and let them run if they are behaving correctly, which UVSGA has been ever since the two-day bump when their earnings came out. Good luck in the future! P.S. I stopped out of THRX, another C&H altho a weak one, and bot it back the next day last week. What a no-no! Anyway I didn't really want out and I even bot back at 1/8 higher than my previous stop, but I really wanted to be in after the split. Guess what it did yesterday after splitting? Right, another big move that may be the start of a repeat of the run-up it did after the split was announced. At 12:11 AM 4/18/98 -0400, you wrote: >I picked up WON's HTMMIS at the bookstore after spending an hour or so >sampling many of the different stock books on the shelf. I was not a >beginner to the markets, but I knew I was well in the dark on trading >equities. I read through the book and subsequently subscribed to IBD, >and on 2/2/98 I made my first CANSLIM buy, UVSGA at 33 3/8. Three weeks >later UVSGA was pulling back from a high of 42 and I stopped out at 38 >1/2 for a 15.4% gain less commissions. Since that time I have given >back a portion of that profit but I expect to come out on top in the >long run. > >I have been thoroughly impressed with the level of discourse that I have >read so far and am anxious to participate. > >Thanks - > >Dave Voelker > Tim Fisher, 1995 President, Pacific Fishery Biologists Ore-ROCK-On Rockhounding Web Site PFB Information tfish@spiritone.com WWW http://www.spiritone.com/~tfish -- See naked fish and rocks! - - ------------------------------ Date: Sat, 18 Apr 1998 09:57:14 -0400 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] My watch list Very nice list, John. I think you might want to delete MTXC from it however, as it is being acquired by FNF for stock (the deal is collared at a max of 0.8 shares of FNF with FNF at a max of $35, and it's already over that, thus the max value to be received by MTXC is $28 where it is already trading <0.8*$35)>). BTW, I already suspected this as soon as I looked at the chart, these patterns have become very obvious once enough time has elapsed from the buyout announcement. I generally agree with your pivot points, altho a few like GRDG might be adjustable downward a little if they base out further, then move on heavy volume (at least 1.5X ADV). You can get sometimes get a little more aggressive if there is a decent base and not wait for them to first hit a new high. Tom W - -----Original Message----- From: John Nogueira (mssm2000) To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Date: Friday, April 17, 1998 12:54 AM Subject: [CANSLIM] My watch list >Only the following factors were considered in making this CANSLIM watch >list: > >EPS, RS, Chart, Shares > >Symbol EPS RS Chart Avg. Vol. Pivot? >------ --- -- ----- --------- ------ >mtxc 96 97 Tight Base 24,700 $28 >astx 99 86 Base (cup w/handle?) 110,600 $17 >belf 97 93 Short Base 40,700 $27 1/2 >nsit 97 87 Long Base 49,700 $43 >fdpc 96 86 Short Base 17,000 $13 7/8 >grdg 95 93 Short Base 135,200 $22 1/2 > >Should any breakouts occur, please do your homework before purchasing. >Also note that my readings of the pivot points may differ from yours. > >John F. Nogueira, Jr. > > > > > > > >- > - - ------------------------------ Date: Sat, 18 Apr 1998 10:44:53 EDT From: DCSquires Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Timeliness Interpretation Hi Frank, I used to use this stat in my screening but I quickly realized it has a lagging nature. I don't even look at it anymore. If you can judge the RS and earnings of the company individually why bother with a combined indicator that responses to these stats after the fact. JMO. DSquires - - ------------------------------ Date: Sat, 18 Apr 1998 10:49:32 -0500 From: Bill Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] HYSW Tim - I wonder if Connie's OBV/MF/EMA technical indicators might have prevented your visit to the toilet? In hindsight, there appears to be ample evidence to suggest a downturn in late Feb and early March. - ie negative OBV/MF divergence, EMA divergence, SAR suggesting a reversal, etc. I am new at this so don't jump on me for suggesting something other than what WON recommends. Another point to consider is what someone mentioned here several months ago regarding the display of stop loss orders on 'level II' screens and the ability of the mm/dealer to downtick the prices to sweep up all of the stop loss orders to satisfy current demand. Not sure how that works but have had similar and suspicious experience with hard stop loss orders. Bill-->> - ----------------------------------------- At 6:43 AM -0700 4/18/98, Tim Fisher wrote: >I thought that too. My mind got changed in a hurry. How? INFS! No more >mental stops for me. That one little gap down into the toilet cost me more >than any other loss I have taken on a stock. > >At 01:57 PM 4/17/98 -0800, you wrote: >>This is one argument for keeping stops in your head, and deciding >>whether or not to get out based on the close. With stops you run the >>risk of these anomalous intraday price moves taking you out, where it >>is not a legitimate change in price direction. Of course, without >>stops you run the risk of talking yourself into keeping a stock >>longer than you should. Personally, all my stops are in my head, and >>once a stock gets down to where I figure I should sell, I dump it or >>if I can justify it, give it another day or two to rebound. A couple >>of weeks ago one of my stocks hit my stop price, but on very low >>volume, I gave it another day, it has recovered 4 points. Of course >>all these stories don't have a happy ending like this and you run the >>risk that if something doesn't turn up it, you take a bigger hit than >>you would with the stop in place. Anyway, just my stray thoughts, >>hopefully somewhat helpful. >> >Tim Fisher, 1995 President, Pacific Fishery Biologists >Ore-ROCK-On Rockhounding Web Site >PFB Information >tfish@spiritone.com >WWW http://www.spiritone.com/~tfish -- See naked fish and rocks! > > >- - - ------------------------------ Date: Sat, 18 Apr 1998 08:12:32 -0700 From: Tim Fisher Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] INFS Hindsight is 20/20. If I did it again I'd probably buy it again. There were so many positive articles on the co. both on the net and locally that I would have found many more reasons to buy than not to buy. Plus that was a true gap down - look at the chart. It opened one day way below the previous days' range and never recovered. At 10:49 AM 4/18/98 -0500, you wrote: >Tim - I wonder if Connie's OBV/MF/EMA technical indicators might have >prevented your visit to the toilet? In hindsight, there appears to be ample >evidence to suggest a downturn in late Feb and early March. - ie negative >OBV/MF divergence, EMA divergence, SAR suggesting a reversal, etc. > >I am new at this so don't jump on me for suggesting something other than >what WON recommends. > >Another point to consider is what someone mentioned here several months ago >regarding the display of stop loss orders on 'level II' screens and the >ability of the mm/dealer to downtick the prices to sweep up all of the stop >loss orders to satisfy current demand. Not sure how that works but have had >similar and suspicious experience with hard stop loss orders. > >Bill-->> >----------------------------------------- > >At 6:43 AM -0700 4/18/98, Tim Fisher wrote: >>I thought that too. My mind got changed in a hurry. How? INFS! No more >>mental stops for me. That one little gap down into the toilet cost me more >>than any other loss I have taken on a stock. >> >>At 01:57 PM 4/17/98 -0800, you wrote: >>>This is one argument for keeping stops in your head, and deciding >>>whether or not to get out based on the close. With stops you run the >>>risk of these anomalous intraday price moves taking you out, where it >>>is not a legitimate change in price direction. Of course, without >>>stops you run the risk of talking yourself into keeping a stock >>>longer than you should. Personally, all my stops are in my head, and >>>once a stock gets down to where I figure I should sell, I dump it or >>>if I can justify it, give it another day or two to rebound. A couple >>>of weeks ago one of my stocks hit my stop price, but on very low >>>volume, I gave it another day, it has recovered 4 points. Of course >>>all these stories don't have a happy ending like this and you run the >>>risk that if something doesn't turn up it, you take a bigger hit than >>>you would with the stop in place. Anyway, just my stray thoughts, >>>hopefully somewhat helpful. >>> >>Tim Fisher, 1995 President, Pacific Fishery Biologists >>Ore-ROCK-On Rockhounding Web Site >>PFB Information >>tfish@spiritone.com >>WWW http://www.spiritone.com/~tfish -- See naked fish and rocks! >> >> >>- > > > > >- > > > Tim Fisher, 1995 President, Pacific Fishery Biologists Ore-ROCK-On Rockhounding Web Site PFB Information tfish@spiritone.com WWW http://www.spiritone.com/~tfish -- See naked fish and rocks! - - ------------------------------ Date: Sat, 18 Apr 1998 11:47:52 EDT From: DCSquires Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] NEWBIE question follows... base pattern <> 80+ RS ???? Hi Dave! Welcome to the group. I have got to tell you I have been a lot of CS discussion groups and this one has them all beat! As I think you have stated there are two ways for a stock to achieve a high RS. Either rise quicker then the gerenal market or resist a general market downtrend. IMO, the latter is much better. Of cousre, niether of these situations are worth pursuing if the stock is extended. IMO, a sound base structure is equally as important and sometimes more important than RS, especially in a rotational market like we have had in recent times. WON says to buy high RS stocks coming out of sound bases. Well, at this stage in the up move most high RS stocks are now extended and stocks that are still in bases, by definition, have falling RS numbers. Many of them are likely in the 70's, but in this rotational market many of these stocks could be goods risks if they are the next group to get money flow. A good example is the tele-equipment makers. They had been underperforming but are now getting money flows but many of them have weaker RS than WON approves of because of the rising market. I guess what I am trying to say is that WON's rules must be interpreted within the market contexted. Of course, if you are just trying to narrow down your list to a more managable number most of what I have said does not apply. As for where to look for the stocks I think DG's is a grest source as is the Telescan Prosearch software.....niether of them is a bargin but they will uncover many good opportunities and likey pay for themselves quickly. DSquires - - ------------------------------ Date: Sat, 18 Apr 1998 12:05:15 -0700 From: Subject: [CANSLIM] AACE and MINI AACE seems to be moving to higher grounds. Earnings are due to be released on 4-22 Mini seems to be forming a new base 11 to 12 Check it out and tell me what you think. David the rookie - - ------------------------------ Date: Sat, 18 Apr 1998 11:15:09 -0500 From: Dave Cameron Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Two to watch KELL and SCTC DCSquires wrote: > > Hi all! > > Here are two that I like for fresh money. SCTC... I read the earnings relaese > and it appears that this company is firing on all cylinders. The chart looks > good and is pulling back to a lower risk buy point. KELL is a nice C&H with > good forward earning prospects. HYSW has already been mentioned and I still > like. The shake out put the stock in stronger hands.....all the more reason to > buy a valid BO. DC, I'm confused here... I've looked at all 3 charts. I agree with you on KELL and HYSW. Watching for a breakout could certainly be rewarding. But, I don't understand SCTC. The chart I pull up on DGO appears to me to be running up, not pulling back to a lower risk buy point. In addition, the last quarter's growth in earnings was the worst advance (albeit still great) in about 2 years. What do you see in SCTC that I don't, and why don't you think it needs to base awhile? Thanks, Dave Cameron > > Dsquires > > - - - ------------------------------ Date: Sat, 18 Apr 1998 11:18:23 -0500 From: Dave Cameron Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] NEWBIE question follows... base pattern <> 80+ RS ???? Dave, I can only add a little to what Tom and DC Squires have already stated. I think both their points are excellent. I would merely add that there are some stocks which had sizable runups earlier, and are currently basing. These can have high RS. Look at HYSW (mentioned several times here). ASTX seems to me to be another good one. I also recently bought USNA which I think fits the pattern. ASTX & USNA have shorter bases now (4 weeks), but had longer bases prior to their most recent short move. These are rare, but it saves looking through a lot of stocks! :-) Dave Cameron dfcameron@ameritech.net Dave Voelker wrote: > > Hello all - > > I am new to the list and have a question about CANSLIM that has puzzled > me for some time - CANSLIM recommends an RS of 80+, stocks coming off a > solid base, and at or approaching new highs. I find this combination > very difficult to screen for, even if it is the only thing I screen > for! My understanding of RS leads me to believe that the only way I can > find an RS of 80+ and a basing pattern is if the stock is rebounding > from a long and/or steep decline in price, which I find suspect anyway. > > Most of the solid bases I see come with high RS numbers below 80, > something I attribute to the fact that a basing stock should show flat > price strength during the recent base period which is weighted heavier > in the calculation of RS. Can you find a stock with a 90+ RS coming off > a base? How does this affect your screens and what do you place more > trust in, the chart or the RS? > > Dave Voelker > > - - - ------------------------------ Date: Sat, 18 Apr 1998 12:36:27 -0500 From: Bill Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] NEWBIE question follows... base pattern <> 80+ RS ???? Tom, can you please explain why 'volume drying up' is a positive breakout signal? Thanks, Bill-->> - ------------------------------------------ At 8:20 AM -0400 4/18/98, Tom Worley wrote: >I see very few with a WON definition of a >solid base (e.g. 6 to 8 weeks long, tight trading range, volume drying >up hopefully, near a new high, etc). - - ------------------------------ Date: Sat, 18 Apr 1998 12:50:56 EDT From: DCSquires Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] NEWBIE question follows... base pattern <> 80+RS ???? In a message dated 98-04-18 12:39:22 EDT, you write: << Tom, can you please explain why 'volume drying up' is a positive breakout signal? >> I'm not Tom but I want to comment on this. I get very excited when I see volume drying up in the handle..........the more the volume contracts the better. The reason why is that it signals the exhaustion of weak hands (sellers) at the brink of a new high. In short, it is last of the "get out even" croud. Going forward the stock is now in stronger hands and the BO is more likely to succeed. DSquires - - ------------------------------ Date: Sat, 18 Apr 1998 10:06:34 -0800 From: "Patrick Wahl" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] avei > From: Anindo Majumdar > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] avei > Isn't that a bearish sign that the stock didn't move up after posting such > strong earnings and revenue growth. Could be concern about increasing > competition in this field. Its at least a warning sign. Sometimes there are some concerns about something or other and the company has to demonstrate they have overcome whatever the potential problems are. With that growth rate, I definitely at least want to keep an eye on it. I don't know enough about AVEI and the industry at this point to know what those concerns are. - - ------------------------------ End of canslim-digest V2 #194 ***************************** To unsubscribe to canslim-digest, send an email to "majordomo@xmission.com" with "unsubscribe canslim-digest" in the body of the message. For information on digests or retrieving files and old messages send "help" to the same address. Do not use quotes in your message.