From: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com (canslim-digest) To: canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Subject: canslim-digest V2 #1959 Reply-To: canslim Sender: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Errors-To: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Precedence: bulk Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable X-No-Archive: yes canslim-digest Saturday, December 15 2001 Volume 02 : Number 1959 In this issue: Re: [CANSLIM] Length of Bases RE: [CANSLIM] Re:bzh & chbs [CANSLIM] from IBD RE: [CANSLIM] duplicatein a column RE: [CANSLIM] Interview [CANSLIM] Worley's Weekend Weeview ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Date: Sat, 15 Dec 2001 20:35:03 -0600 From: Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Length of Bases check out monday's IBD under NASDAQ the real most active-has a byline on BREL-that it shot free out of a seven-week base. david - ----- Original Message ----- From: "esetser" To: Sent: Saturday, December 15, 2001 8:26 PM Subject: [CANSLIM] Length of Bases > Here is some further data I found on the length of base subject. In > HTMMIS, on page 162, in Search with Cup-with-a-Handle Price Patterns, WON > goes on to define a CUP as a 7 to 65 week pattern. The handle is talked > about later and doesn't seem to bring up the total time, just usually 1 to > 2 weeks or more for the handle. > > However, given the discussion, I decided maybe a quick peak at the 26 > lesson course to see if it is more specific was a good idea. Okay, lesson > #9 discusses patterns, and there is an illustrated cup with handle base > they discuss. Oh-oh, WON states that the base requires at least 7 to 8 > weeks from point A to point E, where E is the breakout point. I guess this > clarifies it better than HTMMIS as it is very specific. NOte that Point C > was the end of the cup and high of the handle. I'll copy the exact text > and figure below: > > "...A proper ''cup with handle'' must take at least seven or eight weeks to > form (from Point A to Point E). Otherwise, it may be unsound and fail > after its breakout. Some bases may actually be three, six or as many as 15 > months in duration. Most decline 20% to 30% from their absolute peak to > the low of the cup (from A to B). Handles can be a short one or two weeks > or a number of weeks longer and need to drift downward along their lows or > have a shakeout (break below a prior week's low in the handle). This > serves the purpose of getting a needed pullback or price correction out of > the way. Proper handles rarely pull back in price more than 10% or 15% and > will usually show either a marked dry- up in volume near their lows, which > means there is no more selling coming into the stock, or they will have > several tight areas where the price varies only a tiny amount and for > several weeks may close virtually unchanged in price. This is a > constructive signal. " > > - ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- - ---- > > - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Sat, 15 Dec 2001 20:35:21 -0600 From: "John Adair" Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Re:bzh & chbs This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------=_NextPart_000_0050_01C185A8.0464CF40 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit I learned .Thanks - -----Original Message----- From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Tom Worley Sent: Saturday, December 15, 2001 4:55 AM To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Re: BREL Tim, After reading all the comments about this one, I must agree with you. I believe it was Katherine that mentioned the handle does not get counted as part of the "basing formation" but I do not recall that being correct (at least I always counted since it is an essential part of a c&h formation). One point no one seems to have mentioned is that this is a small cap stock that was under $12 on 9/28, when it actually began its move. Up to then, it was characterized by a lengthy flat line base, just the kind of stock I look for. Can't believe I missed it, because the key was the Q2 results, where they showed strong growth in earnings both y2y and sequentially. Sales also showed good growth. Management owns 43% of the issue, leaving only 4.7 million shares in the float. Of that, funds owned 18% as of the last report (presumably as of 9/30) so their holdings may have increased substantially. While ADV now is over 300K shares a day, before the end of Sept it was a sleepy eyed stock, often trading less than a 1000 shares a day. BIG change in less than 3 months, and not all due to the anthrax attacks, since growth was already occurring before then. With the float turning over in just 16 days, you are usually going to get a shortened "basing formation", so even if the handle is not to be counted, the five weeks forming the cup is still valid in my book. Some tolerance and deviation from the strict rules must be given due the small float and rapid growth in daily volume. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net AIM: TexWorley - ----- Original Message ----- From: Tim Fisher To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Sent: Friday, December 14, 2001 11:09 AM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Re: BREL I see a short, flat handle starting Dec 5 forming at the old high of 32.50, range of about 29-33. I do not see an upward slope in either the closing price or the trading range in the handle. At 11:01 AM 12/14/2001 -0500, you wrote: >Doesn't the upward-sloping handle on BREL concern you? > >- >-To subscribe/unsubscribe, email " majordomo@xmission.com " >-In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or >-"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. Tim Fisher Ore-ROCK-On Rockhounding Web Site Pacific Fishery Biologists Information mailto:tim@OreRockOn.com WWW http://OreRockOn.com - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email " majordomo@xmission.com " - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - ------=_NextPart_000_0050_01C185A8.0464CF40 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable

I = learned .Thanks

 

-----Original Message-----
From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com = [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Tom Worley
Sent: Saturday, December = 15, 2001 4:55 AM
To: = canslim@lists.xmission.com
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] = Re: BREL

 

Tim,<= /p>

 <= /p>

After reading all the comments about this one, I must agree with you.  I believe = it was Katherine that mentioned the handle does not get counted as part of the "basing formation" but I do not recall that being correct (at = least I always counted since it is an essential part of a c&h = formation).<= /p>

 <= /p>

One point no one seems to have mentioned is that this is a small cap stock that was = under $12 on 9/28, when it actually began its move. Up to then, it was = characterized by a lengthy flat line base, just the kind of stock I look for. Can't = believe I missed it, because the key was the Q2 results, where they showed strong = growth in earnings both y2y and sequentially. Sales also showed good = growth.<= /p>

 <= /p>

Management owns 43% of the issue, leaving only 4.7 million shares in the float. Of = that, funds owned 18% as of the last report (presumably as of 9/30) so their = holdings may have increased substantially. While ADV now is over 300K shares a = day, before the end of Sept it was a sleepy eyed stock, often trading less = than a 1000 shares a day. BIG change in less than 3 months, and not all due to = the anthrax attacks, since growth was already occurring before = then.<= /p>

 <= /p>

With the float turning over in just 16 days, you are usually going to get a = shortened "basing formation", so even if the handle is not to be = counted, the five weeks forming the cup is still valid in my book. Some tolerance and deviation from the strict rules must be given due the small float and = rapid growth in daily volume.

 <= /p>

Tom Worley
stkguru@netside.net
AIM: TexWorley

----- Original Message -----

=

To: canslim@lists.xmission.com

Sent: Friday, = December 14, 2001 11:09 AM

Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Re: BREL

 <= /p>

I = see a short, flat handle starting Dec 5 forming at the old high of 32.50,
range of about 29-33. I do not see an upward slope in either the = closing
price or the trading range in the handle.

At 11:01 AM 12/14/2001 -0500, you wrote:
>Doesn't the upward-sloping handle on BREL concern you?
>
>-
>-To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" >-In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or
>-"unsubscribe canslim".  Do not use quotes in your = email.

Tim Fisher
Ore-ROCK-On Rockhounding Web Site
Pacific Fishery Biologists Information
mailto:tim@OreRockOn.com
WWW http://OreRockOn.com

- -
- -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or
- -"unsubscribe canslim".  Do not use quotes in your = email.<= /p>

- ------=_NextPart_000_0050_01C185A8.0464CF40-- - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Sat, 15 Dec 2001 20:04:55 -0700 From: "Patrick Wahl" Subject: [CANSLIM] from IBD
Someone posted this on the Motley Fool from an IBD Q/A on 12/12.

After a severe bear market, many stocks still need time to build proper bases. What we are seeing now are many patterns where stocks have come up off their bottoms but are now in handle-building phases. Currently many of these bases are wide and loose, or wedging, or have some other defect indicating that they simply need more time to shape up. This is actually very normal behavior after a severe bear market. Many of our models from prior cycles where stocks were recovering from a brutal bear show similar patterns, and in some cases these stocks need as much as 8 months to build a proper base before they launch on huge moves. In 1962, after a terrible bear period going into the Cuban Missile Crisis of October 1962, Xerox needed 8 months of wide and loose, back and forth handle- building in its base before launching on a seven-fold move. This may be a very valid precedent for the action of many stocks today. The only antidote is time, so patience and the ability to recognize when a proper base has been formed for a stock's breakout to work are virtues in this environment.

- - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Sat, 15 Dec 2001 21:11:53 -0600 From: "John Adair" Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] duplicatein a column Microsoft product support has several ways to perform the function you wish . 1 determine if duplicate values already exist 2 find unique elements in a list 3 finding unique elements in a list http://support.microsoft.com/support query words 4.00a howto list however they just now told me they had no such item but I have a copy of a report fro them showing how There are several very comprehensive web sites which will answer all your excel questions. Don't attempt to learn vb unless you are under 50 years old and have a lot of time to be frusterated. Enter the following information in a ss A1 field name b1 field name c1 field name A2 lori b2 c2 lori A3 frank b3 c3 frank A4 john b4 c4 john A5 frank A6 lori A7 lori In cell b2 enter the formula =(sum((a2=$b$1:b1)*1)=0,a2," ") fill down The unique set of values will be displayed in cells b2:b6 - -----Original Message----- From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Tangen, Eric Sent: Friday, December 14, 2001 4:37 PM To: 'canslim@lists.xmission.com' Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Spreadsheet Question You have several options: 1. Write a VBA routine...well worth learning and this is about as good a starter project as it gets. 2. Use Access - (the database program you get with the Professional version of Office)...again, easy if you know database programming. 3. Look into Pivot Tables in Excel...there might be something there. All I know about pivot tables is how to spell it, so this may be a dead end. ERIC TANGEN - -----Original Message----- From: Perry Stanfield [mailto:mpstan@attbi.com] Sent: Friday, December 14, 2001 3:04 PM To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Subject: [CANSLIM] Spreadsheet Question Is there a way to compare two columns of stock symbols in a spreadsheet and determine which symbols are "new" in the second column? This comes up with scans.........It would be nice to automate the process of identifying stocks that are just making a screen for the first time. There must be a way with Excel........... Thanks Perry - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Sat, 15 Dec 2001 21:20:38 -0600 From: "John Adair" Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Interview Wait till the market quiets down we are all kind of crazy now. - -----Original Message----- From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Jack Stephenson Sent: Friday, December 14, 2001 1:44 PM To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Subject: [CANSLIM] Interview Until now, I have been a quiet member of this CANSLIM community. I marvel at the knowledge, commitment, and discipline exhibited by members of this group. One of my responsibilities as a psychologist has been to conduct telephone interviews with various investors and traders on the psychology of investing. I like to explore the interviewee's emotional experiences in the stock market and methods of managing these emotions. Interviews tend to last about 45 - 60 minutes. Some of these interviews, with the interviewee's permission, are posted on the website, Innerworth.com, which is devoted to investment psychology. If anyone is interested in participating in this thought-provoking conversation, please contact me at jacksteph@adelphia.net. Regards, Jack Stephenson, Ph.D. - ----- Original Message ----- From: "Katherine Malm" To: Sent: Friday, December 14, 2001 10:45 AM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Re: BREL > No, the handle is not part of the base. It is a separate consolidation that > shakes out the last of the weak holders. So that means, BREL has a 5-1/2 > week base and a handle slightly longer than a week.According to WON, its > duration should be proportional to the length and depth of the base itself. > > No, I haven't posted my sell rules because these things are different for > each person depending on their experience, risk tolerance and goals. I > started with WON, pared it down, cleared up the fuzzy ones, then added a few > from my own experience. But I'd say that if a trader doesn't have definitive > rules that can be written down on a list, emotion will always take over when > it's time to sell. And *that* is the way most people lose big money! > > Katherine > ----- Original Message ----- > From: > To: > Sent: Friday, December 14, 2001 12:40 PM > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Re: BREL > > > > katherine, i thought WON included the handle as part of the base. also, if > i > > count correctly, with the base starting on 10/26/01, it's 7 weeks long as > of > > today, the minimum according to WON for a C&H base. also, have you posted > > your sell rules? thanks, david > > ----- Original Message ----- > > From: "Katherine Malm" > > To: > > Sent: Friday, December 14, 2001 12:17 PM > > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Re: BREL > > > > > > > Yes. That would be my read. I think that B. would've considered this > part > > of > > > the cup. But I don't know that for sure without rereading the chapter > > > closely. The good news is, however, if a stock were to form a high > handle > > > where the right lip was higher than the left lip, that would mean the > > > failure rate out of the pattern drops. > > > > > > But all that aside, when I look at the BREL chart, I see the left side > of > > > the cup at $24.90 on 10/26. I see the high of the handle at $33.35 on > 12/5 > > > and I see 6 days in the handle and a B/O today. The problem I have is > that > > > this makes a cup only 5-1/2 weeks long and that is too short to be > valid. > > 7 > > > weeks is minimum. On my sell rule checklist, if a stock near its highs > > > breaks out of a base > > > that is too short, it gets the axe. > > > > > > Katherine > > > > > > ----- Original Message ----- > > > From: > > > To: > > > Sent: Friday, December 14, 2001 11:52 AM > > > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Re: BREL > > > > > > > > > > katherine, i'm sorry i don't really understand your answer. does it > > > > mean(maybe in your opinion) that since the price is cranking above the > > > pivot > > > > that it isn`t really a handle. and BREL might have done that in this > > case? > > > > david > > > > ----- Original Message ----- > > > > From: "Katherine Malm" > > > > To: > > > > Sent: Friday, December 14, 2001 11:27 AM > > > > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Re: BREL > > > > > > > > > > > > > >>. it looks to me like a > > > > > > slightly upward handle which kind of concerned me. ...what does > Mr. > > B > > > > > > say about this? > > > > > > > > > > You know, off the top of my head, I don't remember that he mentioned > > > > upward > > > > > sloping handles. He did say that it didn't matter statistically > > whether > > > or > > > > > not they were downward sloping. So I'm going to guess that he's > > implying > > > > > that it shouldn't crank up above the pivot, or it's not really a > > handle. > > > > > But, that's just an opinion, not a fact. > > > > > > > > > > Katherine > > > > > ----- Original Message ----- > > > > > From: > > > > > To: > > > > > Sent: Friday, December 14, 2001 11:09 AM > > > > > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Re: BREL > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > tim and dave, got into BREL early this morning . it looks to me > like > > a > > > > > > slightly upward handle which kind of concerned me. Katherine what > > does > > > > Mr. > > > > > B > > > > > > say about this? anyother thoughts from others? Andreas, great > saying > > > > from > > > > > > Goethe. david > > > > > > ----- Original Message ----- > > > > > > From: "Dave" > > > > > > To: > > > > > > Sent: Friday, December 14, 2001 10:01 AM > > > > > > Subject: [CANSLIM] Re: BREL > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Doesn't the upward-sloping handle on BREL concern you? > > > > > > > > > > > > > > - > > > > > > > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > > > > > > > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > > > > > > > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > - > > > > > > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > > > > > > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > > > > > > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > - > > > > > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > > > > > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > > > > > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. > > > > > > > > > > > > - > > > > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > > > > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > > > > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. > > > > > > > > > > > > - > > > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > > > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > > > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. > > > > > > - > > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. > > > - > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Sat, 15 Dec 2001 22:18:42 -0500 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] Worley's Weekend Weeview This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------=_NextPart_000_007A_01C185B6.74806C40 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable EARNINGS WARNING SEASON It's that time of the quarter again, and the news releases on what to = expect from corporate America for the current quarter are starting to = roll in, and will heat up next week. I get an almost daily email this = time of the quarter summarizing what was released, and my overall = impression is that more are raising expectations or confirming forecasts = than are lowering expectations, both on revenues and earnings. In the = 3rd qtr, earnings for the S&P500 fell nearly 22%, worst fall year over = year in a decade. For the 4th quarter, expectations are for a drop of = 19%, better but still not good. But with both INTC and CSCO saying nice = things, as well as PG, even MRK's forecast of no growth for 2002 fades = in importance as it is company related more than sector related.=20 - -------------------------------------------------------------------------= - ------- JAPAN What can I say? This second largest economy remains mired in government = inaction and indecisiveness. The banking industry remains on the verge = of collapse, overwhelmed by bad loans. This past week, one of the = largest banks (Asahi) finally cut off credit to Aoki Corp, which = promptly filed bankruptcy, leading to fears that other banks will start = cutting off corps with whom they have long standing business = relationships. On Thursday, the banking index (now at new 3 year lows) = led the Nikkei to losses that wiped out what was made on Wednesday. = Everyone seems to be worried, or even panicking, except the government = who this week pulled off a successful devaluation of the yen, moving it = to a three year low against the US dollar. While this may temporarily = strengthen their exports, it will also raise the cost of imports, = leading to more inflation during their recession. And it will also = likely cause other devaluations of currency throughout Asia as those = countries try to hold onto market share. China and Malaysia may be hurt = the worst by this, as they have pegged their currency to the dollar, and = will try to defend it. Ultimately, this could lead to another financial = crisis similar to 1997 when Thailand started the domino effect. But with = Japan, the biggest economy in Asia, starting the process, it could = happen a lot faster this time.=20 - -------------------------------------------------------------------------= - ------- FED CUT The news wasn't that they cut 25 BP (basis points), it was that they = left the bias in place, suggesting the possibility of another 25 BP cut = at the January meeting. - -------------------------------------------------------------------------= - ------- ON THE ECONOMY No surprise, at least it shouldn't have been, the auto makers couldn't = keep up the Japanese style of zero percent loans in order to induce = buying decisions. As a result, retail sales fell more than expected to = 3.7% (expected was a 3.1% drop) after rising 6.4% jump in October = (almost all on car sales). Still, that's nearly a 3% net for two months, = guess we'll take that, even if Christmas sales at the retailers appear = so far to be slower than anticipated. But the PPI (Producer Price Index) = also fell more than expected, to 0.6% (expected was a drop to 0.3 or = 0.4%), down further from October, hinting that inflation continues to be = a no show.=20 - -------------------------------------------------------------------------= - ------- WORLEY'S WATCHLIST WANNABES Appears like I will have fewer stocks to consider this weekend As always, Bx means a flat line "B"ase of "x" weeks, IMO. If I see other = formations like c&h, double bottom, LLUR, CAT, RAT, I will say so. ACS - LLUR ACTN - RAT LLUR AGM - B3 ASF - c&h, handle drooping on declining volume BIOA - RAT LLUR BLL - LLUR, earnings decline forecasted for Q4 BOKF - LLUR BPRX - uptrending B5, stealth b/o Thursday BVF - RAT LLUR BZH - looking at this one again, I see a c&h on a c&h, unusual pattern, = I suspect a weekly chart might smooth it out into a larger, stronger c&h = formation CACI - LLUR CVBF - B8 DLX - LLUR DNB - LLUR FMT - c&h, b/o Friday, within 5% of pivot, low priced FRED - LLUR GAIA - saucer, b/o Wed, declining to support on lower volume GAN - CAT LLUR GFF - CAT LLUR HRB - B2 ISLE - B2 ITRI - CAT LLUR JCI - B5 JNC - LLUR KSS - high handle MATW - B3 MIMS - LLUR NFI - LLUR PHC - B10, tight range RAH - LLUR RKT - base on the handle, second handle?? RYAAY - B5 RYAN - LLUR THC - B4 TIER - LLUR Happy Hunting, God Bless America, and all its military people =20 Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net AIM: TexWorley - ------=_NextPart_000_007A_01C185B6.74806C40 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
EARNINGS WARNING = SEASON
It's that time of the quarter again, and the news = releases on=20 what to expect from corporate America for the current quarter are = starting to=20 roll in, and will heat up next week.  I get an almost daily email = this time=20 of the quarter summarizing what was released, and my overall impression = is that=20 more are raising expectations or confirming forecasts than are lowering=20 expectations, both on revenues and earnings. In the 3rd qtr, earnings = for the=20 S&P500 fell nearly 22%, worst fall year over year in a decade. For = the 4th=20 quarter, expectations are for a drop of 19%, better but still not good. = But with=20 both INTC and CSCO saying nice things, as well as PG, even MRK's = forecast of no=20 growth for 2002 fades in importance as it is company related more than = sector=20 related.=20
JAPAN
What can I say? This second largest economy remains = mired in=20 government inaction and indecisiveness. The banking industry remains on = the=20 verge of collapse, overwhelmed by bad loans. This past week, one of the = largest=20 banks (Asahi) finally cut off credit to Aoki Corp, which promptly filed=20 bankruptcy, leading to fears that other banks will start cutting off = corps with=20 whom they have long standing business relationships. On Thursday, the = banking=20 index (now at new 3 year lows) led the Nikkei to losses that wiped out = what was=20 made on Wednesday. Everyone seems to be worried, or even panicking, = except the=20 government who this week pulled off a successful devaluation of the yen, = moving=20 it to a three year low against the US dollar. While this may temporarily = strengthen their exports, it will also raise the cost of imports, = leading to=20 more inflation during their recession. And it will also likely cause = other=20 devaluations of currency throughout Asia as those countries try to hold = onto=20 market share. China and Malaysia may be hurt the worst by this, as they = have=20 pegged their currency to the dollar, and will try to defend it. = Ultimately, this=20 could lead to another financial crisis similar to 1997 when Thailand = started the=20 domino effect. But with Japan, the biggest economy in Asia, = starting the=20 process, it could happen a lot faster this time.=20
FED CUT
The news wasn't that they cut 25 BP (basis points), = it was=20 that they left the bias in place, suggesting the possibility of another = 25 BP=20 cut at the January meeting.
ON THE ECONOMY
No surprise, at least it shouldn't have been, the auto makers = couldn't keep=20 up the Japanese style of zero percent loans in order to induce buying = decisions.=20 As a result, retail sales fell more than expected to 3.7% (expected was = a 3.1%=20 drop) after rising 6.4% jump in October (almost all on car sales). = Still, that's=20 nearly a 3% net for two months, guess we'll take that, even if Christmas = sales=20 at the retailers appear so far to be slower than anticipated. But the = PPI=20 (Producer Price Index) also fell more than expected, to 0.6% (expected = was a=20 drop to 0.3 or 0.4%), down further from October, hinting that inflation=20 continues to be a no show.=20
WORLEY'S WATCHLIST WANNABES
Appears like I will have fewer stocks to consider this = weekend
As always, Bx means a flat line "B"ase of "x" weeks, IMO. If I see = other=20 formations like c&h, double bottom, LLUR, CAT, RAT, I will say = so.
 
ACS - LLUR
ACTN - RAT LLUR
AGM - B3
ASF - c&h, handle drooping on declining volume
BIOA - RAT LLUR
BLL - LLUR, earnings decline forecasted for Q4
BOKF - LLUR
BPRX - uptrending B5, stealth b/o Thursday
BVF - RAT LLUR
BZH - looking at this one again, I see a c&h on a c&h, = unusual=20 pattern, I suspect a weekly chart might smooth it out into a larger, = stronger=20 c&h formation
CACI - LLUR
CVBF - B8
DLX - LLUR
DNB - LLUR
FMT - c&h, b/o Friday, within 5% of pivot, low priced
FRED - LLUR
GAIA - saucer, b/o Wed, declining to support on lower volume
GAN - CAT LLUR
GFF - CAT LLUR
HRB - B2
ISLE - B2
ITRI - CAT LLUR
JCI - B5
JNC - LLUR
KSS - high handle
MATW - B3
MIMS - LLUR
NFI - LLUR
PHC - B10, tight range
RAH - LLUR
RKT - base on the handle, second handle??
RYAAY - B5
RYAN - LLUR
THC - B4
TIER - LLUR
 
Happy Hunting,
 
God Bless America, and all its military people
 
Tom Worley
stkguru@netside.net
AIM:=20 TexWorley
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