From: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com (canslim-digest) To: canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Subject: canslim-digest V2 #1999 Reply-To: canslim Sender: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Errors-To: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Precedence: bulk Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable X-No-Archive: yes canslim-digest Wednesday, January 2 2002 Volume 02 : Number 1999 In this issue: Re: [CANSLIM] Next Move In The Markets Re: [CANSLIM] Next Move In The Markets AW: [CANSLIM] GAIA AW: [CANSLIM] GAIA AW: [CANSLIM] GAIA Re: [CANSLIM] Insider Trading Re: [CANSLIM] Next Move In The Markets [CANSLIM] DFXI RE: [CANSLIM] Insider Trading Re: [CANSLIM] Head & Shoulders on the indexes? ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Date: Tue, 1 Jan 2002 14:22:07 -0500 From: "Dan Forant" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Next Move In The Markets This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------=_NextPart_000_0015_01C192CF.B18D5640 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Gene, Your predictions are as good as any, and your probably not getting paid = for them. My guess is the more bickering in Washington and the less they = do, the better off we'll be. Past and 1st first quarter negative = estimates will improve some. Rate cuts take 6 mos to a year to kick in. = The airline industry will continue to suffer. I'm not flying, and not = just because of terrorism. Unemployment will not go down till end of = 2002. Slow growth till fall. A lot of short term breakouts and maybe a = few diamonds in the rough. How's that?? DanF ----- Original Message -----=20 From: Gene Ricci=20 To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20 Sent: Tuesday, January 01, 2002 12:46 PM Subject: [CANSLIM] Next Move In The Markets Right now the predictions for the year 2002 are all over the place. =20 The 'bears' are calling for a correction (don't they always), the = 'bulls' are calling for a resurgence (don't they always). I'm calling = for a choppy market with a bias to the upside that will most likely get = us to 2500 by the end of 2002. I think we'll be in a correction by = mid-January... Thoughts? Gene - ------=_NextPart_000_0015_01C192CF.B18D5640 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
Gene,
 
Your predictions are as good as any, = and your=20 probably not getting paid for them. My guess is the more bickering in = Washington=20 and the less they do, the better off we'll be. Past and 1st first = quarter=20 negative estimates will improve some. Rate cuts take 6 mos to a year to = kick in.=20 The airline industry will continue to suffer. I'm not flying, and not = just=20 because of terrorism. Unemployment will not go down till end of 2002. = Slow=20 growth till fall.  A lot of short term breakouts and maybe a few = diamonds=20 in the rough. How's that??
 
DanF
----- Original Message -----
From:=20 Gene = Ricci
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=
Sent: Tuesday, January 01, 2002 = 12:46=20 PM
Subject: [CANSLIM] Next Move In = The=20 Markets

Right now the predictions = for the year=20 2002 are all over the place. 

The 'bears' are calling for a correction (don't = they=20 always), the 'bulls' are calling for a resurgence (don't they always). = I'm=20 calling for a choppy market with a bias to the upside that will most = likely=20 get us to 2500 by the end of 2002. I think we'll be in a=20 correction by mid-January...

Thoughts?

Gene

 

- ------=_NextPart_000_0015_01C192CF.B18D5640-- - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 1 Jan 2002 14:39:22 -0500 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Next Move In The Markets This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------=_NextPart_000_000D_01C192D2.1A543C00 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable I'll be my normal bullish self. I expect a strong January and a positive = February, followed by a weak March. I expect Q4 results to mostly beat = expectations, thereby increasing expectations for the new year. I think = the economy has bottomed, as has industrial production, consumer = spending remains decent and will accelerate. One area not mentioned a = lot is internet spending, which I think increased sharply in the Q4 as = people stayed home. This will further increase. I believe GDP for Q4 = will be close to zero, slightly positive or negative, too close for me = to call. I anticipate increased economic activity during the Q1, with forecasts = of earnings being raised for both the quarter and year. Unemployment = will top out at 6.1% by early summer, then begin falling (and might = happen even quicker and from a slightly lower level of unemployment). I = do not expect another Fed rate cut, and do expect a rate hike by early = summer. That will send the markets into a frenzy for a while, and cause = a short term correction. But I do not expect inflation to become such a = big problem that we end up with a continued series of rate hikes. The = global economy is still simply too weak. I also expect to see the specter of Osama remain around for a number of = months, maybe with Omar as part of the picture. We don't really want to = capture him, the custody and legal process would be a huge burden. And = we want him still alive as he serves as a great justification for = further military action against terrorist targets. So we can't find him, = at least for now.=20 I look for the DOW to break 12,000 then correct back before motoring on = to 13,500 or better by year's end. For NASDAQ I look for a strong first = half, possibly gaining to 2,500 or more, then consolidating thru the = summer before again moving higher by year's end, my target is 2,650. OK, admittedly, there is absolutely no scientific or CANSLIM basis for = this, but then I did pretty well in 2001 going with my gut instincts. = And things have been looking much better lately. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net AIM: TexWorley ----- Original Message -----=20 From: Dan Forant=20 To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20 Sent: Tuesday, January 01, 2002 2:22 PM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Next Move In The Markets Gene, Your predictions are as good as any, and your probably not getting = paid for them. My guess is the more bickering in Washington and the less = they do, the better off we'll be. Past and 1st first quarter negative = estimates will improve some. Rate cuts take 6 mos to a year to kick in. = The airline industry will continue to suffer. I'm not flying, and not = just because of terrorism. Unemployment will not go down till end of = 2002. Slow growth till fall. A lot of short term breakouts and maybe a = few diamonds in the rough. How's that?? DanF ----- Original Message -----=20 From: Gene Ricci=20 To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20 Sent: Tuesday, January 01, 2002 12:46 PM Subject: [CANSLIM] Next Move In The Markets Right now the predictions for the year 2002 are all over the place. = The 'bears' are calling for a correction (don't they always), the = 'bulls' are calling for a resurgence (don't they always). I'm calling = for a choppy market with a bias to the upside that will most likely get = us to 2500 by the end of 2002. I think we'll be in a correction by = mid-January... Thoughts? Gene - ------=_NextPart_000_000D_01C192D2.1A543C00 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
I'll be my normal bullish self. I expect a = strong January=20 and a positive February, followed by a weak March. I expect Q4 results = to mostly=20 beat expectations, thereby increasing expectations for the new year. I = think the=20 economy has bottomed, as has industrial production, consumer spending = remains=20 decent and will accelerate. One area not mentioned a lot is internet = spending,=20 which I think increased sharply in the Q4 as people stayed home. This = will=20 further increase. I believe GDP for Q4 will be close to zero, slightly = positive=20 or negative, too close for me to call.
 
I anticipate increased economic activity during = the Q1,=20 with forecasts of earnings being raised for both the quarter and year.=20 Unemployment will top out at 6.1% by early summer, then begin falling = (and might=20 happen even quicker and from a slightly lower level of = unemployment).  I do=20 not expect another Fed rate cut, and do expect a rate hike by early = summer. That=20 will send the markets into a frenzy for a while, and cause a short term=20 correction. But I do not expect inflation to become such a big problem = that we=20 end up with a continued series of rate hikes. The global economy is = still simply=20 too weak.
 
I also expect to see the specter of Osama remain = around=20 for a number of months, maybe with Omar as part of the picture. We don't = really=20 want to capture him, the custody and legal process would be a huge = burden. And=20 we want him still alive as he serves as a great justification for = further=20 military action against terrorist targets. So we can't find him, at = least for=20 now.
 
I look for the DOW to break 12,000 then correct = back=20 before motoring on to 13,500 or better by year's end. For NASDAQ I look = for a=20 strong first half, possibly gaining to 2,500 or more, then consolidating = thru=20 the summer before again moving higher by year's end, my target is=20 2,650.
 
OK, admittedly, there is absolutely no = scientific or=20 CANSLIM basis for this, but then I did pretty well in 2001 going with my = gut=20 instincts. And things have been looking much better lately.
 
Tom Worley
stkguru@netside.net
AIM:=20 TexWorley
----- Original Message -----
From:=20 Dan=20 Forant
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=
Sent: Tuesday, January 01, 2002 = 2:22=20 PM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Next = Move In The=20 Markets

Gene,
 
Your predictions are as good as any, = and your=20 probably not getting paid for them. My guess is the more bickering in=20 Washington and the less they do, the better off we'll be. Past and 1st = first=20 quarter negative estimates will improve some. Rate cuts take 6 mos to = a year=20 to kick in. The airline industry will continue to suffer. I'm not = flying, and=20 not just because of terrorism. Unemployment will not go down till end = of 2002.=20 Slow growth till fall.  A lot of short term breakouts and maybe a = few=20 diamonds in the rough. How's that??
 
DanF
----- Original Message -----
From:=20 Gene = Ricci
Sent: Tuesday, January 01, = 2002 12:46=20 PM
Subject: [CANSLIM] Next Move = In The=20 Markets

Right now the predictions = for the=20 year 2002 are all over the place. =20

The 'bears' are calling for a correction (don't = they=20 always), the 'bulls' are calling for a resurgence (don't they = always). I'm=20 calling for a choppy market with a bias to the upside that will most = likely=20 get us to 2500 by the end of 2002. I think we'll be in a=20 correction by mid-January...

Thoughts?

Gene

 

- ------=_NextPart_000_000D_01C192D2.1A543C00-- - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 1 Jan 2002 23:54:44 +0100 From: Andreas Himmelreich Subject: AW: [CANSLIM] GAIA I got it from DGO > -----Ursprungliche Nachricht----- > Von: Spencer48@aol.com [SMTP:Spencer48@aol.com] > Gesendet am: Monday, December 31, 2001 7:45 PM > An: canslim@lists.xmission.com > Betreff: Re: [CANSLIM] GAIA > > Andreas: > > How did you determine the new funds that invested in the stock: Do you > keep back issues of IBD and compare? Or do you use an Internet resource, and > if so, what is the URL (ie. the address)? > > jans > > > In a message dated 12/31/2001 8:45:27 AM Eastern Standard Time, > judgejimmy@web.de writes: > > << 12 Funds are invested, 4 more then in Jun... >> > > - > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 1 Jan 2002 23:55:56 +0100 From: Andreas Himmelreich Subject: AW: [CANSLIM] GAIA Sorry: DGO beta --> http://beta.dailygraphs.com/formslogin.asp, weekly view of the stock > -----Ursprungliche Nachricht----- > Von: Andreas Himmelreich [SMTP:judgejimmy@web.de] > Gesendet am: Tuesday, January 01, 2002 11:55 PM > An: 'canslim@lists.xmission.com' > Betreff: AW: [CANSLIM] GAIA > > I got it from DGO > > > -----Ursprungliche Nachricht----- > > Von: Spencer48@aol.com [SMTP:Spencer48@aol.com] > > Gesendet am: Monday, December 31, 2001 7:45 PM > > An: canslim@lists.xmission.com > > Betreff: Re: [CANSLIM] GAIA > > > > Andreas: > > > > How did you determine the new funds that invested in the stock: Do you > > keep back issues of IBD and compare? Or do you use an Internet resource, and > > if so, what is the URL (ie. the address)? > > > > jans > > > > > > In a message dated 12/31/2001 8:45:27 AM Eastern Standard Time, > > judgejimmy@web.de writes: > > > > << 12 Funds are invested, 4 more then in Jun... >> > > > > - > > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 2 Jan 2002 00:37:05 +0100 From: Andreas Himmelreich Subject: AW: [CANSLIM] GAIA Tom, I am not concerned, my SL is very tight and the IG Trend is up, so I belive there is a good chance that the BO will work. I am not good in calculating pivot points, the whole entry strategy of Oneil just does not work for me and a 50/50 chance is not good enough for me. What I am trying to do is to get in before the breakout. If I miss it I still consider to go in (as with GAIA), but that depends on how strong the industry trend is. What determines if a breakout works or not? I bet on the Industry Group Trend (and what I did backtest so far looks good enough for me, so that I try this now). So I do not use the rule that if you miss a breakout 10% above Pivot, that you should not go in. The Industry Group Chart that gave a buy signal on 12/27, which I was not reacting to, because I had some other unfortunate private things to do. (A buy signal of an Industry Group is for me: Price breaks out of a consolidation area, RS and Price of the Group is in a clear uptrend and I apply chart patterns that are known from individual stocks to the group, furthermore RS of the IG should be above 80, better 90) I completly changed my strategy, I only look from top down (Market --> Industry Group --> Stock). A IG sets up a bull market for its members, that can even go against the whole market. Oil and Medical Stocks had great returns in 2000 or 2001. From where did TARO come? When a IG gives me a signal, I simply look up the stocks that look fundamentally and technically good (applying Canslim Criteria). Example FDS --> FDS seems fundamentally to be OK, RS is a litle weak, but 70 is still OK for me because the IG Strength is above 80. Now the important part: Industry Group is in a good uptrend, RS is 85, RS and price make new highs almost every day. Chart of FDS has a real nice Flag and I can go in very agressivly with a real tight stop (I try to get in tomorow for 35 and the SL will be around 34). and simply wait for a breakout. I can use margin on my account (due to the tighter stop loss) and can so spread my bets to 8 - 10 Stocks. I am not sure how long I will wait, but so fare it never took longer then a week to be stoped out or to be in before the BO. Since I use this strategy I have some promising results and my portfolio is doing great during downdays of the market. I got in SIDE (before), ROOM (well before), RSC (before), FHRX (after breakout, because I liked the IG Trend), RYL (After). Even better, I use it also for selling: ECTX and UTSI got out (with a win) after I saw that the IG is not ready yet (Its still basing). I know this is not all sound and not yet backtestet, but something tells me that I should try this. See you Andreas > -----Ursprungliche Nachricht----- > Von: Tom Worley [SMTP:stkguru@netside.net] > Gesendet am: Tuesday, January 01, 2002 2:40 AM > An: canslim@lists.xmission.com > Betreff: Re: [CANSLIM] GAIA > > Andreas, you got your gap up, but I would be concerned about it closing > almost at the low of the day on very heavy volume (what Katherine calls a > tail). I also would be interested in you explaining how you selected your > pivot or entry point, as I do not see a good one (other than the base it > built between 15 and 16.50). > > Tom Worley > stkguru@netside.net > AIM: TexWorley > ----- Original Message ----- > From: "Andreas Himmelreich" > To: > Sent: Monday, December 31, 2001 8:49 AM > Subject: [CANSLIM] GAIA > > > > GAIA Broke out on Friday > > > > CWH (Weekly Chart) > > Industry Group is in a very good uptrend (Price and Relative Strength) > > > > Pros --> > > > > High RS of Industry Group (97), RS 88, EPS 98, Acc Diss A, SMR A, Timeless > > A, Shares 8.4 Million (1.8 Million Free Float), MGM Ownership 78%, > > 12 Funds are invested, 4 more then in June, ROI 16%, Dept 31% (not to high > > for a retail comp) > > Accelarating Sales. Business Model seems to me very interesting > > (Environmental Lifestile stuff, Scalable through the web) > > > > Cons --> > > > > New CFO, Institutions are in big time (over 70% Institutions, I know the > > numbers do not add up, > > I guess they have 70% the remaining 22% (100 - 78 (MGM Ownership) = 22%). > > So if the institutions sell, price goes down > > fast. > > > > I will get in today if there is a gap up today. I will wait if the open is > > flat. > > > > See you > > > > Andreas > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > - > > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. > > > > > > > > - > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 1 Jan 2002 20:59:04 -0800 From: "Jack Stephenson" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Insider Trading Can anyone recommend a website that provides insider trading information? Thanks, Jack - ----- Original Message ----- From: "Andreas Himmelreich" To: Sent: Tuesday, January 01, 2002 3:37 PM Subject: AW: [CANSLIM] GAIA > Tom, > > I am not concerned, my SL is very tight and the IG Trend is up, so I belive > there is a good > chance that the BO will work. > > I am not good in calculating pivot points, the whole entry strategy of > Oneil just does not work > for me and a 50/50 chance is not good enough for me. > > What I am trying to do is to get in before the breakout. If I miss it I > still consider > to go in (as with GAIA), but that depends on how strong the industry trend > is. > > What determines if a breakout works or not? I bet on the Industry Group > Trend (and what I did backtest > so far looks good enough for me, so that I try this now). > > So I do not use the rule that if you miss a breakout 10% above Pivot, that > you should not go in. > > The Industry Group Chart that gave a buy signal on 12/27, which > I was not reacting to, because I had some other unfortunate private things > to do. > > (A buy signal of an Industry Group is for me: Price breaks out of a > consolidation area, > RS and Price of the Group is in a clear uptrend and I apply chart patterns > that are known from individual stocks > to the group, furthermore RS of the IG should be above 80, better 90) > > I completly changed my strategy, I only look from top down (Market --> > Industry Group --> Stock). > A IG sets up a bull market for its members, that can even go against the > whole market. Oil and Medical > Stocks had great returns in 2000 or 2001. From where did TARO come? > > When a IG gives me a signal, I simply look up the stocks that look > fundamentally and technically good (applying > Canslim Criteria). > > Example FDS --> > > FDS seems fundamentally to be OK, RS is a litle weak, but 70 is still OK > for me because the IG Strength is above 80. > > Now the important part: > > Industry Group is in a good uptrend, RS is 85, RS and price make new highs > almost every day. > Chart of FDS has a real nice Flag and I can go in very agressivly with a > real tight stop (I try to get in tomorow for 35 and the SL will be around > 34). and simply wait for a breakout. > > I can use margin on my account (due to the tighter stop loss) and can so > spread my bets to 8 - 10 Stocks. > I am not sure how long I will wait, but so fare it never took longer then a > week to be stoped out or to be > in before the BO. > > Since I use this strategy I have some promising results and my portfolio is > doing great during downdays of the market. > I got in SIDE (before), ROOM (well before), RSC (before), FHRX (after > breakout, because I liked the IG Trend), RYL (After). > > Even better, I use it also for selling: > ECTX and UTSI got out (with a win) after I saw that the IG is not ready yet > (Its still basing). > > > I know this is not all sound and not yet backtestet, but something tells me > that I should try this. > > See you > > Andreas > > > > > > > > -----Ursprungliche Nachricht----- > > Von: Tom Worley [SMTP:stkguru@netside.net] > > Gesendet am: Tuesday, January 01, 2002 2:40 AM > > An: canslim@lists.xmission.com > > Betreff: Re: [CANSLIM] GAIA > > > > Andreas, you got your gap up, but I would be concerned about it closing > > almost at the low of the day on very heavy volume (what Katherine calls a > > tail). I also would be interested in you explaining how you selected > your > > pivot or entry point, as I do not see a good one (other than the base it > > built between 15 and 16.50). > > > > Tom Worley > > stkguru@netside.net > > AIM: TexWorley > > ----- Original Message ----- > > From: "Andreas Himmelreich" > > To: > > Sent: Monday, December 31, 2001 8:49 AM > > Subject: [CANSLIM] GAIA > > > > > > > GAIA Broke out on Friday > > > > > > CWH (Weekly Chart) > > > Industry Group is in a very good uptrend (Price and Relative Strength) > > > > > > Pros --> > > > > > > High RS of Industry Group (97), RS 88, EPS 98, Acc Diss A, SMR A, > Timeless > > > A, Shares 8.4 Million (1.8 Million Free Float), MGM Ownership 78%, > > > 12 Funds are invested, 4 more then in June, ROI 16%, Dept 31% (not to > high > > > for a retail comp) > > > Accelarating Sales. Business Model seems to me very interesting > > > (Environmental Lifestile stuff, Scalable through the web) > > > > > > Cons --> > > > > > > New CFO, Institutions are in big time (over 70% Institutions, I know > the > > > numbers do not add up, > > > I guess they have 70% the remaining 22% (100 - 78 (MGM Ownership) = > 22%). > > > So if the institutions sell, price goes down > > > fast. > > > > > > I will get in today if there is a gap up today. I will wait if the open > is > > > flat. > > > > > > See you > > > > > > Andreas > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > - > > > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > > > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > > > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > - > > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. > - > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 02 Jan 2002 00:11:35 -0600 From: Ronald Davis Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Next Move In The Markets This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------=_NextPart_000_0038_01C19322.0A1B0A80 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable I would wager money on Gene's 2500 prediction for 2002, that is, if I = still had any money left after 2001. =20 ----- Original Message -----=20 From: Gene Ricci=20 To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20 Sent: Tuesday, January 01, 2002 11:46 AM Subject: [CANSLIM] Next Move In The Markets Right now the predictions for the year 2002 are all over the place. =20 The 'bears' are calling for a correction (don't they always), the = 'bulls' are calling for a resurgence (don't they always). I'm calling = for a choppy market with a bias to the upside that will most likely get = us to 2500 by the end of 2002. I think we'll be in a correction by = mid-January... Thoughts? Gene - ------=_NextPart_000_0038_01C19322.0A1B0A80 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
I would wager money=20 on Gene's 2500 prediction for 2002, that is, if I still = had any=20 money left after 2001. 
----- Original Message -----
From:=20 Gene = Ricci
Sent: Tuesday, January 01, 2002 = 11:46=20 AM
Subject: [CANSLIM] Next Move In = The=20 Markets

Right now the predictions = for the year=20 2002 are all over the place. 

The 'bears' are calling for a correction (don't = they=20 always), the 'bulls' are calling for a resurgence (don't they always). = I'm=20 calling for a choppy market with a bias to the upside that will most = likely=20 get us to 2500 by the end of 2002. I think we'll be in a=20 correction by mid-January...

Thoughts?

Gene

 

- ------=_NextPart_000_0038_01C19322.0A1B0A80-- - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 2 Jan 2002 01:10:12 +0100 From: Andreas Himmelreich Subject: [CANSLIM] DFXI Fundamentals, well this stock has them. Weekly chart looks good to me (some nice shakouts that have cost me money). IG gave a buy signal (Uptrend in Price and RS, New Price High, New RS High, RS moves out of a base) yesterday. Looks like a break candidate for this week ... See you Andreas P.S. If you think my method varies to much from CANSLIM and you you have enough from my IG stuff, let me know and I will stop sending Emails about this subject :-) - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 2 Jan 2002 06:17:31 -0600 From: "Keith Williams" Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Insider Trading Jack, Yahoo Finance offers a current insider trading screen. http://finance.yahoo.com/?u after entering the ticker symbol double click insider under more info. Keith - -----Original Message----- From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Jack Stephenson Sent: Tuesday, January 01, 2002 10:59 PM To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Insider Trading Can anyone recommend a website that provides insider trading information? Thanks, Jack - ----- Original Message ----- From: "Andreas Himmelreich" To: Sent: Tuesday, January 01, 2002 3:37 PM Subject: AW: [CANSLIM] GAIA > Tom, > > I am not concerned, my SL is very tight and the IG Trend is up, so I belive > there is a good > chance that the BO will work. > > I am not good in calculating pivot points, the whole entry strategy of > Oneil just does not work > for me and a 50/50 chance is not good enough for me. > > What I am trying to do is to get in before the breakout. If I miss it I > still consider > to go in (as with GAIA), but that depends on how strong the industry trend > is. > > What determines if a breakout works or not? I bet on the Industry Group > Trend (and what I did backtest > so far looks good enough for me, so that I try this now). > > So I do not use the rule that if you miss a breakout 10% above Pivot, that > you should not go in. > > The Industry Group Chart that gave a buy signal on 12/27, which > I was not reacting to, because I had some other unfortunate private things > to do. > > (A buy signal of an Industry Group is for me: Price breaks out of a > consolidation area, > RS and Price of the Group is in a clear uptrend and I apply chart patterns > that are known from individual stocks > to the group, furthermore RS of the IG should be above 80, better 90) > > I completly changed my strategy, I only look from top down (Market --> > Industry Group --> Stock). > A IG sets up a bull market for its members, that can even go against the > whole market. Oil and Medical > Stocks had great returns in 2000 or 2001. From where did TARO come? > > When a IG gives me a signal, I simply look up the stocks that look > fundamentally and technically good (applying > Canslim Criteria). > > Example FDS --> > > FDS seems fundamentally to be OK, RS is a litle weak, but 70 is still OK > for me because the IG Strength is above 80. > > Now the important part: > > Industry Group is in a good uptrend, RS is 85, RS and price make new highs > almost every day. > Chart of FDS has a real nice Flag and I can go in very agressivly with a > real tight stop (I try to get in tomorow for 35 and the SL will be around > 34). and simply wait for a breakout. > > I can use margin on my account (due to the tighter stop loss) and can so > spread my bets to 8 - 10 Stocks. > I am not sure how long I will wait, but so fare it never took longer then a > week to be stoped out or to be > in before the BO. > > Since I use this strategy I have some promising results and my portfolio is > doing great during downdays of the market. > I got in SIDE (before), ROOM (well before), RSC (before), FHRX (after > breakout, because I liked the IG Trend), RYL (After). > > Even better, I use it also for selling: > ECTX and UTSI got out (with a win) after I saw that the IG is not ready yet > (Its still basing). > > > I know this is not all sound and not yet backtestet, but something tells me > that I should try this. > > See you > > Andreas > > > > > > > > -----Ursprungliche Nachricht----- > > Von: Tom Worley [SMTP:stkguru@netside.net] > > Gesendet am: Tuesday, January 01, 2002 2:40 AM > > An: canslim@lists.xmission.com > > Betreff: Re: [CANSLIM] GAIA > > > > Andreas, you got your gap up, but I would be concerned about it closing > > almost at the low of the day on very heavy volume (what Katherine calls a > > tail). I also would be interested in you explaining how you selected > your > > pivot or entry point, as I do not see a good one (other than the base it > > built between 15 and 16.50). > > > > Tom Worley > > stkguru@netside.net > > AIM: TexWorley > > ----- Original Message ----- > > From: "Andreas Himmelreich" > > To: > > Sent: Monday, December 31, 2001 8:49 AM > > Subject: [CANSLIM] GAIA > > > > > > > GAIA Broke out on Friday > > > > > > CWH (Weekly Chart) > > > Industry Group is in a very good uptrend (Price and Relative Strength) > > > > > > Pros --> > > > > > > High RS of Industry Group (97), RS 88, EPS 98, Acc Diss A, SMR A, > Timeless > > > A, Shares 8.4 Million (1.8 Million Free Float), MGM Ownership 78%, > > > 12 Funds are invested, 4 more then in June, ROI 16%, Dept 31% (not to > high > > > for a retail comp) > > > Accelarating Sales. Business Model seems to me very interesting > > > (Environmental Lifestile stuff, Scalable through the web) > > > > > > Cons --> > > > > > > New CFO, Institutions are in big time (over 70% Institutions, I know > the > > > numbers do not add up, > > > I guess they have 70% the remaining 22% (100 - 78 (MGM Ownership) = > 22%). > > > So if the institutions sell, price goes down > > > fast. > > > > > > I will get in today if there is a gap up today. I will wait if the open > is > > > flat. > > > > > > See you > > > > > > Andreas > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > - > > > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > > > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > > > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > - > > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. > - > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 2 Jan 2002 06:47:35 -0600 From: "Norman" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Head & Shoulders on the indexes? This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------=_NextPart_000_0035_01C19359.5C799990 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Regarding the H&S chart, If I tilt my head to the right (kinda like = reading an LLUR, but the other way) I can see it. But just acting = 'normal' all I see is a series of lower highs and lower lows since the = pinnacle in March 2000, Norm ----- Original Message -----=20 From: Dave Squires=20 To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20 Sent: Monday, December 24, 2001 6:43 PM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Head & Shoulders on the indexes? Tom, I looked and I have to say I don't really see them either. As many = know my approach is nearly all technical and the thing that strikes me = is all these supposed head and shoulders tops look totally different and = NONE of the patterns have symmetry. Experience tells me this is a little = odd. One issue that I think is complicating the CS landscape at the this = time the climax BUYING that occurred on 12/5. This is a very confusing = issue for CS traders. Given the fact we are possibly entering an = extended trading range ANY climax volume(buy or sell) would likely = result in a termination of the current trend. This is what has occurred = here. It's confusing to us because we consider good price moves on = volume to be confirming indicators but this in not the case in extended = trading ranges. To me the recent pullback is a direct result of the = climax buying event on 12/5. Strictly a TA interpretation of course. = Either way I can't make a good case for HnS tops in the indices = currently. Since we are on the M topic some may find an analysis I sent to some = friends over the weekend of interest. Of course, its one man's option. = Pasted below. DSquires NAZ Monthly = http://photos.yahoo.com/bc/swingtrader20000/vwp?.dir=3D/&.dnm=3DNAZ+Month= ly.jpg&.src=3Dph&.view=3Dt&.hires=3Dt This is a very interesting and useful chart. Looking purely at lows = and highs this chart shows a clear downtrend. However, there are finally = signs this vicious downtrend is weakening. First, the ADX is flat and = rose weakly on the last leg down. This suggests trend strength is = slowing. Second, the stochastic shows the market to be severely = oversold. Notice that even during 1990 the indicator barely got below 20 = and didn't stay there long. The indicator also diverged positively on = the last leg down. Lastly, the trend channel has been broken, suggestion = a sideways, basing stage may be starting. That's the good news. To me = the 20 period MA is a reality check. If the market is below this line on = ANY time frame it is not a good idea to trade against it. The blue line = is the 20p MA and price is below it and it is sloping down. Also, notice = the market has had a 3 bar correction against the main trend. Even = though the market has rallied an incredible 50% the monthly clearly = shows this is nothing more that a trend correction at this point. Look = at the prior up trend...3 bar corrections happened many times. Finally = look at this months bar. The month has not closed yet so this bar could = change a lot especially with bullishly skewed holiday trading. That = said, it is currently a bearish shooting star. So to sum up this time = frame it is showing a 3 bar correction in a downtrend that is very = oversold and weakening. Weekly = http://photos.yahoo.com/bc/swingtrader20000/vwp?.dir=3D/&.dnm=3DNAZ+weekl= y.jpg&.src=3Dph&.view=3Dt&.hires=3Dt Although this chart shows a downtrend based on lower lows and highs = the ADX is moving downward at a steep slope, which suggests a trading = range. Also if you take out the 3 weeks after 9-11 the market is = basically in a trading range. This time frame also has 3 pushes down, = which tends to complete a trend. Oscillators work in a trading range and = this market is overbought, near the upper, down sloping Bollinger band = and at overhead resistance. Add to this the higher time frame trend and = possible monthly reversal bar and the picture is not that rosy at this = juncture. On the positive side price has recaptured the 20p MA which is = sloping up slightly. Also the market has drawn 2 inside bars while = holding the 40 week MA(same as 200 day). That pattern is a bullish = continuation pattern but it's also at resistance. Looking ahead a bit = the April low will be a key point if the market trades down from here. I = say this because it is the first chance the market has to set up a sound = basing pattern. If the market reverses off the April low support zone we = will have a potential head and shoulders bottom. Weekly volume will be = an important confirmation to the pattern. Summing up this chart is easy, = it's overbought in a trading range with the higher time frame trend = pushing down. Daily = http://photos.yahoo.com/bc/swingtrader20000/vwp?.dir=3D/&.dnm=3DNAZ+weekl= y---1.jpg&.src=3Dph&.view=3Dt&.hires=3Dt The daily clearly shows an up trend but with recent weakness. It also = shows a moving average minefield. This chart is a testament to the = importance of the 200 day MA. It has created support and resistance 4 = different times this month and last. The market is now trying to decide = what it wants to do at this key resistance point. There are a couple of = hints as to what might happen. This is the first attack on a DOWN = SLOPING MA. The majority of the time the market is repelled by a down = sloping MA. The chart also shows a break of a flattening 20p MA(blue). = This is a good short-term trend indicator and the market needs to get = back above it remain healthy. Finally, the 50 day MA(green) is just = below and sloping up. It should support the market if it trades down to = it. Another hint this trend is in a bit of trouble is the broken up = trend channel. The important point here is after it broke it was tested = 3 days later and held. That's a pretty good indication of a trend = change. Friday was hard to read with triple witching but Thursday was a = heavy volume down day that closed on the low. Days like this tend to be = followed by a lower low. So this chart shows a broken up trend near a = key moving average with the higher time frame overbought. A test of the = 50 may be developing here. 130 minute chart = http://photos.yahoo.com/bc/swingtrader20000/vwp?.dir=3D/&.dnm=3DNAZ+130+m= inute.jpg&.src=3Dph&.view=3Dt&.hires=3Dt This chart shows a correction to the higher time frame up trend. Here = the marker is oversold on support but the ADX is 19 and rising = indicating a small presence of downtrend. This may be a two step = correction against the trend. That would put the market at the bottom of = the second high blue line, which is very close to the 50 day MA. This = will be and important test level. If the 50 holds a test of the December = high may occur. If it fails the April low may be tested. If the market = recaptures the 20 day EMA on volume a new high is very likely. The = market has retraced only 1/3 of the recent rally so the benefit of the = doubt goes to the upside.=20 =20 ----- Original Message -----=20 From: Tom Worley=20 To: CANSLIM=20 Sent: Monday, December 24, 2001 3:27 PM Subject: [CANSLIM] Head & Shoulders on the indexes? Several of the internet charting services I get have in the past = week been discussing the H&S patterns they see on the major indexes. = Since so much of chart reading is "in the eye of the beholder", I was = surprised that no one in the group was mentioning this. So this = morning, I took the time to look at all the major indexes at DGO, and I = fail to see this pattern showing. Possibly the scales being used by = these services is making the pattern appear, certainly it is clear on = the charts they present. But I don't see it at DGO. When I use DGO beta, = however, and kinda squint my eyes, I can see it on the NYSE Composite, = Naz, and S&P 500, but it's still not that clear. I do not see it at all = on the DOW 30, and the Russell 2000. Since there is a wide variety of charting services being used by = members, is anyone else seeing this pattern developing? What charting = service are you using? I confess to not being expert at reading / seeing / understanding a = h&s pattern, so welcome any commentary. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net AIM: TexWorley - ------=_NextPart_000_0035_01C19359.5C799990 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
Regarding the H&S chart, If I tilt my head to the right (kinda = like=20 reading an LLUR, but the other way) I can see it.  But just acting = 'normal'=20 all I see is a series of lower highs and lower lows since the pinnacle = in March=20 2000,
 
Norm
----- Original Message -----
From:=20 Dave=20 Squires
Sent: Monday, December 24, 2001 = 6:43=20 PM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Head = &=20 Shoulders on the indexes?

Tom,
 
I looked and I have to say I don't = really see=20 them either. As many know my approach is nearly all technical and the = thing=20 that strikes me is all these supposed head and shoulders tops look = totally=20 different and NONE of the patterns have symmetry. Experience tells me = this is=20 a little odd. One issue that I = think is=20 complicating the CS landscape at the this time the climax BUYING that = occurred=20 on 12/5. This is a very confusing issue for CS traders. Given the fact = we are=20 possibly entering an extended trading range ANY climax volume(buy = or=20 sell) would likely result in a termination of the current trend. This = is what=20 has occurred here. It's confusing to us because we consider good price = moves=20 on volume to be confirming indicators but this in not the case in = extended=20 trading ranges. To me the recent pullback is a direct result of the = climax=20 buying event on 12/5. Strictly a TA interpretation of course. Either = way I=20 can't make a good case for HnS tops in the indices = currently.
 
Since we are on the M topic some may = find an=20 analysis I sent to some friends over the weekend of interest. Of = course, its=20 one man's option. Pasted below.
 
DSquires
 

NAZ Monthly

http://pho= tos.yahoo.com/bc/swingtrader20000/vwp?.dir=3D/&.dnm=3DNAZ+Monthly.jpg= &.src=3Dph&.view=3Dt&.hires=3Dt

This is a very interesting and useful chart. Looking purely at lows = and=20 highs this chart shows a clear downtrend. However, there are finally = signs=20 this vicious downtrend is weakening. First, the ADX is flat and rose = weakly on=20 the last leg down. This suggests trend strength is slowing. Second, = the=20 stochastic shows the market to be severely oversold. Notice that even = during=20 1990 the indicator barely got below 20 and didn't stay there long. The = indicator also diverged positively on the last leg down. Lastly, the = trend=20 channel has been broken, suggestion a sideways, basing stage may be = starting.=20 That's the good news. To me the 20 period MA is a reality check. If = the market=20 is below this line on ANY time frame it is not a good idea to trade = against=20 it. The blue line is the 20p MA and price is below it and it is = sloping down.=20 Also, notice the market has had a 3 bar correction against the main = trend.=20 Even though the market has rallied an incredible 50% the monthly = clearly shows=20 this is nothing more that a trend correction at this point. Look at = the prior=20 up trend...3 bar corrections happened many times. Finally look at this = months=20 bar. The month has not closed yet so this bar could change a lot = especially=20 with bullishly skewed holiday trading. That said, it is currently a = bearish=20 shooting star. So to sum up this time frame it is showing a 3 bar = correction=20 in a downtrend that is very oversold and weakening.

 

Weekly

http://phot= os.yahoo.com/bc/swingtrader20000/vwp?.dir=3D/&.dnm=3DNAZ+weekly.jpg&a= mp;.src=3Dph&.view=3Dt&.hires=3Dt

Although this chart shows a downtrend based on lower lows and highs = the ADX=20 is moving downward at a steep slope, which suggests a trading range. = Also if=20 you take out the 3 weeks after 9-11 the market is basically in a = trading=20 range. This time frame also has 3 pushes down, which tends to complete = a=20 trend. Oscillators work in a trading range and this market is = overbought, near=20 the upper, down sloping Bollinger band and at overhead resistance. Add = to this=20 the higher time frame trend and possible monthly reversal bar and the = picture=20 is not that rosy at this juncture. On the positive side price has = recaptured=20 the 20p MA which is sloping up slightly. Also the market has drawn 2 = inside=20 bars while holding the 40 week MA(same as 200 day). That pattern is a = bullish=20 continuation pattern but it's also at resistance. Looking ahead a bit = the=20 April low will be a key point if the market trades down from here. I = say this=20 because it is the first chance the market has to set up a sound basing = pattern. If the market reverses off the April low support zone we will = have a=20 potential head and shoulders bottom. Weekly volume will be an = important=20 confirmation to the pattern. Summing up this chart is easy, it's = overbought in=20 a trading range with the higher time frame trend pushing down.

Daily

http://= photos.yahoo.com/bc/swingtrader20000/vwp?.dir=3D/&.dnm=3DNAZ+weekly--= - -1.jpg&.src=3Dph&.view=3Dt&.hires=3Dt

The daily clearly shows an up trend but with recent weakness. It = also shows=20 a moving average minefield. This chart is a testament to the = importance of the=20 200 day MA. It has created support and resistance 4 different times = this month=20 and last. The market is now trying to decide what it wants to do at = this key=20 resistance point. There are a couple of hints as to what might happen. = This is=20 the first attack on a DOWN SLOPING MA. The majority of the time the = market is=20 repelled by a down sloping MA. The chart also shows a break of a = flattening=20 20p MA(blue). This is a good short-term trend indicator and the market = needs=20 to get back above it remain healthy. Finally, the 50 day MA(green) is = just=20 below and sloping up. It should support the market if it trades down = to it.=20 Another hint this trend is in a bit of trouble is the broken up trend = channel.=20 The important point here is after it broke it was tested 3 days later = and=20 held. That's a pretty good indication of a trend change. Friday was = hard to=20 read with triple witching but Thursday was a heavy volume down day = that closed=20 on the low. Days like this tend to be followed by a lower low. So this = chart=20 shows a broken up trend near a key moving average with the higher time = frame=20 overbought. A test of the 50 may be developing here.

130 minute chart

http://= photos.yahoo.com/bc/swingtrader20000/vwp?.dir=3D/&.dnm=3DNAZ+130+minu= te.jpg&.src=3Dph&.view=3Dt&.hires=3Dt

This chart shows a correction to the higher time frame up = trend.=20 Here the marker is oversold on support but the ADX is 19 and rising = indicating=20 a small presence of downtrend. This may be a two step correction = against the=20 trend. That would put the market at the bottom of the second high blue = line,=20 which is very close to the 50 day MA. This will be and important test = level.=20 If the 50 holds a test of the December high may occur. If it fails the = April=20 low may be tested. If the market recaptures the 20 day EMA on volume a = new=20 high is very likely. The market has retraced only 1/3 of the recent = rally so=20 the benefit of the doubt goes to the upside.

 
   
----- Original Message -----
From:=20 Tom=20 Worley
To: CANSLIM
Sent: Monday, December 24, = 2001 3:27=20 PM
Subject: [CANSLIM] Head & = Shoulders=20 on the indexes?

Several of the internet charting services I get = have in=20 the past week been discussing the H&S patterns they see on the = major=20 indexes. Since so much of chart reading is "in the eye of the = beholder", I=20 was surprised that no one in the group was mentioning this.  So = this=20 morning, I took the time to look at all the major indexes at DGO, = and I fail=20 to see this pattern showing. Possibly the scales being used by these = services is making the pattern appear, certainly it is clear on the = charts=20 they present. But I don't see it at DGO. When I use DGO beta, = however, and=20 kinda squint my eyes, I can see it on the NYSE Composite, Naz, and = S&P=20 500, but it's still not that clear. I do not see it at all on the = DOW 30,=20 and the Russell 2000.
 
Since there is a wide variety of charting = services being=20 used by members, is anyone else seeing this pattern developing? What = charting service are you using?
 
I confess to not being expert at reading / = seeing /=20 understanding a h&s pattern, so welcome any = commentary.
 
Tom Worley
stkguru@netside.net
AIM:=20 TexWorley
- ------=_NextPart_000_0035_01C19359.5C799990-- - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ End of canslim-digest V2 #1999 ****************************** To unsubscribe to canslim-digest, send an email to "majordomo@xmission.com" with "unsubscribe canslim-digest" in the body of the message. For information on digests or retrieving files and old messages send "help" to the same address. Do not use quotes in your message.