From: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com (canslim-digest) To: canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Subject: canslim-digest V2 #2059 Reply-To: canslim Sender: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Errors-To: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Precedence: bulk Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable X-No-Archive: yes canslim-digest Friday, January 18 2002 Volume 02 : Number 2059 In this issue: [CANSLIM] Katherine - Opinion please? [CANSLIM] MCAF Bounce Re: [CANSLIM] MCAF Bounce Re:ELTE (was [CANSLIM] Katherine-Opinion please?] Re: Re:ELTE (was [CANSLIM] Katherine-Opinion please?] Re: Re:ELTE (was [CANSLIM] Katherine-Opinion please?] ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Date: Fri, 18 Jan 2002 14:40:03 -0800 From: Ian Subject: [CANSLIM] Katherine - Opinion please? This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - --Boundary_(ID_ilKeSFIUqDUTQT7F0DjDwg) Content-type: text/plain; charset=iso-8859-1 Content-transfer-encoding: 7BIT Would tuesdays distribution day for ELTE make you exit the stock at this point? Do you have any other insights into the chart? I would appreciate your analysis - it is the one big recent winner I am wondering what to do with. Based on all of my past experiences, and knowing the companies outlook, my gut tells me that it needs to consolidate here, but will run into the $20's by mid-year. But I'd rather listen to the chart. I fear I've held it long enough that I may be complacent. Thank you. Ian - --Boundary_(ID_ilKeSFIUqDUTQT7F0DjDwg) Content-type: text/html; charset=iso-8859-1 Content-transfer-encoding: 7BIT
Would tuesdays distribution day for ELTE make you exit the stock at this point? Do you have any other insights into the chart?
 
I would appreciate your analysis - it is the one big recent winner I am wondering what to do with. Based on all of my past experiences, and knowing the companies outlook, my gut tells me that it needs to consolidate here, but will run into the $20's by mid-year. But I'd rather listen to the chart. I fear I've held it long enough that I may be complacent.
 
Thank you.
 
Ian
- --Boundary_(ID_ilKeSFIUqDUTQT7F0DjDwg)-- - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 18 Jan 2002 16:31:18 -0600 From: Gene Ricci Subject: [CANSLIM] MCAF Bounce This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------=_NextPart_000_02E7_01C1A03D.8E9E9010 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Wasn't much of a bounce but I got out a little after lunch with a teeny = profit... wonder what it would have done if 'they' had liked the IBM = news? Not enough 'courage' to buy it back at the close... oh well, = there's always Tuesday. - ------=_NextPart_000_02E7_01C1A03D.8E9E9010 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
Wasn't much of a bounce but I got out a little after = lunch=20 with a teeny profit... wonder what it would have done if 'they' had = liked the=20 IBM news? Not enough 'courage' to buy it back at the close... oh well, = there's=20 always Tuesday.
 
 
- ------=_NextPart_000_02E7_01C1A03D.8E9E9010-- - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 18 Jan 2002 16:48:45 -0600 From: "Katherine Malm" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] MCAF Bounce This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------=_NextPart_000_0127_01C1A03F.FE606AC0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Interesting day for MCAF. I'd expect it to bounce around 20-25 for a = while. That it didn't breach that old consolidation zone seems to be = saying that there's enough support to keep the original B/O intact. I'd = bet the volatility dies down a bit unless there's a short squeeze in the = works and then cranks up the price in a hurry. When I originally entered = the position, I felt that the 30 mark was the spot where it would run = into the most trouble.=20 ----- Original Message -----=20 From: Gene Ricci=20 To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20 Sent: Friday, January 18, 2002 4:31 PM Subject: [CANSLIM] MCAF Bounce Wasn't much of a bounce but I got out a little after lunch with a = teeny profit... wonder what it would have done if 'they' had liked the = IBM news? Not enough 'courage' to buy it back at the close... oh well, = there's always Tuesday. - ------=_NextPart_000_0127_01C1A03F.FE606AC0 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
Interesting day for MCAF. I'd expect it to bounce around 20-25 for = a while.=20 That it didn't breach that old consolidation zone seems to be saying = that=20 there's enough support to keep the original B/O intact. I'd bet the = volatility=20 dies down a bit unless there's a short squeeze in the works and then = cranks up=20 the price in a hurry. When I originally entered the position, I felt = that the 30=20 mark was the spot where it would run into the most trouble.
----- Original Message -----
From:=20 Gene = Ricci
Sent: Friday, January 18, 2002 = 4:31=20 PM
Subject: [CANSLIM] MCAF = Bounce

Wasn't much of a bounce but I got out a little = after lunch=20 with a teeny profit... wonder what it would have done if 'they' had = liked the=20 IBM news? Not enough 'courage' to buy it back at the close... oh well, = there's=20 always Tuesday.
 
 
- ------=_NextPart_000_0127_01C1A03F.FE606AC0-- - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 18 Jan 2002 17:36:33 -0600 From: "Katherine Malm" Subject: Re:ELTE (was [CANSLIM] Katherine-Opinion please?] This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------=_NextPart_000_013B_01C1A046.ABE5BF00 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Hi Ian, Your question has me wondering whether the sell rules that I follow = translate perfectly to thinly traded stocks. But I'll tell you what I = see and the way I would read it if I were to own it: - -After the B/O at 7.13, stock moves up and consolidates for about 5 = weeks. This is a "valid" consolidation so that makes the previous base = low 8.01 which was printed on 11/23/01. - -Just as a quick check for "overextension" that means that the stock is = 70% above the 200dMA (7.02), 15% above the 50dMA (10.43) and 49.6% above = the base low (8.01). It gets a yellow flag for being 70% above the = 200dMA according to WON's sell rule #34, but does not get a red flag for = the Rubberband Sell Rule. - -After the consolidation and breakout 12/18 the stock has started to = show signs of stress. This could easily be market related, but no way to = tell. - -1/2/02: New high on low volume. Red flag. - -1/10/02 & 1/11/02- two days with little or no price progress on high = volume. Red flag. - -With 1 yellow and 2 red flags I thought it worth doing a PE Extension = check. I've reconstructed the PE at the time of the B/O in October using = trailing EPS numbers for the prior quarters. That puts it at $7.13/$.29 = =3D 24.59. The extension warning would then be a forward PE of = 24.59*2.21=3D 54.3. Let's see. DGO doesn't have any estimates, which = means it isn't followed by enough analysts. I checked the internet to = see if I could find anything and ran across this EPS/Rev snapshot: http://yahoo.marketguide.com/MGI/mg.asp?target=3D/stocks/companyinformati= on/highlights&Ticker=3DELTE I am alarmed by the essentially flat revenues over the last 4 years, so = I am going to go with the EPS estimates in my VectorVest software which = reads a measly $.02. That puts the current forward looking PE at = $11.98/$0.02 =3D 599! I'll have to mark that Red Flag. One note is that its industry is fairly healthy, consolidating after = rising, not overly extended and currently ranked in the 2nd quartile. I'll let you take it from there! Katherine ----- Original Message -----=20 From: Ian=20 To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20 Sent: Friday, January 18, 2002 4:40 PM Subject: [CANSLIM] Katherine - Opinion please? Would tuesdays distribution day for ELTE make you exit the stock at = this point? Do you have any other insights into the chart? I would appreciate your analysis - it is the one big recent winner I = am wondering what to do with. Based on all of my past experiences, and = knowing the companies outlook, my gut tells me that it needs to = consolidate here, but will run into the $20's by mid-year. But I'd = rather listen to the chart. I fear I've held it long enough that I may = be complacent. Thank you. Ian - ------=_NextPart_000_013B_01C1A046.ABE5BF00 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
Hi Ian,
 
Your question has me wondering whether the sell rules that I follow = translate perfectly to thinly traded stocks. But I'll tell you what I = see and=20 the way I would read it if I were to own it:
 
-After the B/O at 7.13, stock moves up and consolidates for about 5 = weeks.=20 This is a "valid" consolidation so that makes the previous base low 8.01 = which=20 was printed on 11/23/01.
-Just as a quick check for "overextension" that means that the = stock is 70%=20 above the 200dMA (7.02), 15% above the 50dMA (10.43) and 49.6% above the = base=20 low (8.01). It gets a yellow flag for being 70% above the 200dMA = according to=20 WON's sell rule #34, but does not get a red flag for the Rubberband Sell = Rule.
-After the consolidation and breakout 12/18 the stock has started = to show=20 signs of stress. This could easily be market related, but no way to = tell.
-1/2/02: New high on low volume. Red flag.
-1/10/02 & 1/11/02- two days with little or no price progress = on high=20 volume. Red flag.
-With 1 yellow and 2 red flags I thought it worth doing a PE = Extension=20 check. I've reconstructed the PE at the time of the B/O in October using = trailing EPS numbers for the prior quarters. That puts it at $7.13/$.29 = =3D 24.59.=20 The extension warning would then be a forward PE of 24.59*2.21=3D 54.3. = Let's see.=20 DGO doesn't have any estimates, which means it isn't followed by enough=20 analysts. I checked the internet to see if I could find anything and ran = across=20 this EPS/Rev snapshot:
 
http://yahoo.marketguide.com/MGI= /mg.asp?target=3D/stocks/companyinformation/highlights&Ticker=3DELTE<= /A>
 
I am alarmed by the essentially flat revenues over the last 4 = years, so I=20 am going to go with the EPS estimates in my VectorVest software which = reads a=20 measly $.02. That puts the current forward looking PE at $11.98/$0.02 = =3D 599!=20 I'll have to mark that Red Flag.
 
One note is that its industry is fairly healthy, consolidating = after=20 rising, not overly extended and currently ranked in the 2nd = quartile.
 
I'll let you take it from there!
 
Katherine
----- Original Message -----
From:=20 Ian =
Sent: Friday, January 18, 2002 = 4:40=20 PM
Subject: [CANSLIM] Katherine - = Opinion=20 please?

Would tuesdays distribution day for ELTE make you = exit the=20 stock at this point? Do you have any other insights into the=20 chart?
 
I would appreciate your analysis - it is the one = big recent=20 winner I am wondering what to do with. Based on all of my past = experiences,=20 and knowing the companies outlook, my gut tells me that it needs to=20 consolidate here, but will run into the $20's by mid-year. But = I'd rather=20 listen to the chart. I fear I've held it long enough that I may be=20 complacent.
 
Thank you.
 
Ian
- ------=_NextPart_000_013B_01C1A046.ABE5BF00-- - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 18 Jan 2002 17:01:18 -0800 From: Ian Subject: Re: Re:ELTE (was [CANSLIM] Katherine-Opinion please?] This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - --Boundary_(ID_pKaEqaqqjzJcLicLaHpO3Q) Content-type: text/plain; charset=iso-8859-1 Content-transfer-encoding: 7BIT Thanks a lot for the chart analysis. The low volume during the new high to $13.50, and the high volume/no progress days on 1/10, 1/11, and 1/15 were the things that concerned me. I convinced myself that the low-volume high was just a case of 'too much, too fast' off the $5 October low. The recent high volume/no movement days are what concern me. There shouldn't be much concern with P/E. The company claimed that Q4 2001, and Q1 2002 were already filled with existing backlog, and I figure that a minimum of $0.16 per Q is easy - so 4 months from now, the ttm EPS will be at least $0.70 if not more, and the P/E at current levels would be under 20. Given their industry group and recent growth rate, a much higher price could easily be supported. But I would like to see more signs of volume accumulation here. After the next earnings report the IBD EPS ranking should go over 85, and the RS is over 90 already, so it should start appearing on IBD radar screens for the first time - including the weekend review. Perhaps it will be a month or so before the next clear direction becomes visible. Thanks again, Ian - ----- Original Message ----- From: Katherine Malm To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Sent: Friday, January 18, 2002 3:36 PM Subject: Re:ELTE (was [CANSLIM] Katherine-Opinion please?] Hi Ian, Your question has me wondering whether the sell rules that I follow translate perfectly to thinly traded stocks. But I'll tell you what I see and the way I would read it if I were to own it: -After the B/O at 7.13, stock moves up and consolidates for about 5 weeks. This is a "valid" consolidation so that makes the previous base low 8.01 which was printed on 11/23/01. -Just as a quick check for "overextension" that means that the stock is 70% above the 200dMA (7.02), 15% above the 50dMA (10.43) and 49.6% above the base low (8.01). It gets a yellow flag for being 70% above the 200dMA according to WON's sell rule #34, but does not get a red flag for the Rubberband Sell Rule. -After the consolidation and breakout 12/18 the stock has started to show signs of stress. This could easily be market related, but no way to tell. -1/2/02: New high on low volume. Red flag. -1/10/02 & 1/11/02- two days with little or no price progress on high volume. Red flag. -With 1 yellow and 2 red flags I thought it worth doing a PE Extension check. I've reconstructed the PE at the time of the B/O in October using trailing EPS numbers for the prior quarters. That puts it at $7.13/$.29 = 24.59. The extension warning would then be a forward PE of 24.59*2.21= 54.3. Let's see. DGO doesn't have any estimates, which means it isn't followed by enough analysts. I checked the internet to see if I could find anything and ran across this EPS/Rev snapshot: http://yahoo.marketguide.com/MGI/mg.asp?target=/stocks/companyinformation/highlights&Ticker=ELTE I am alarmed by the essentially flat revenues over the last 4 years, so I am going to go with the EPS estimates in my VectorVest software which reads a measly $.02. That puts the current forward looking PE at $11.98/$0.02 = 599! I'll have to mark that Red Flag. One note is that its industry is fairly healthy, consolidating after rising, not overly extended and currently ranked in the 2nd quartile. I'll let you take it from there! Katherine ----- Original Message ----- From: Ian To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Sent: Friday, January 18, 2002 4:40 PM Subject: [CANSLIM] Katherine - Opinion please? Would tuesdays distribution day for ELTE make you exit the stock at this point? Do you have any other insights into the chart? I would appreciate your analysis - it is the one big recent winner I am wondering what to do with. Based on all of my past experiences, and knowing the companies outlook, my gut tells me that it needs to consolidate here, but will run into the $20's by mid-year. But I'd rather listen to the chart. I fear I've held it long enough that I may be complacent. Thank you. Ian - --Boundary_(ID_pKaEqaqqjzJcLicLaHpO3Q) Content-type: text/html; charset=iso-8859-1 Content-transfer-encoding: 7BIT
Thanks a lot for the chart analysis. The low volume during the new high to $13.50, and the high volume/no progress days on 1/10, 1/11, and 1/15 were the things that concerned me. I convinced myself that the low-volume high was just a case of 'too much, too fast' off the $5 October low. The recent high volume/no movement days are what concern me.
 
There shouldn't be much concern with P/E. The company claimed that Q4 2001, and Q1 2002 were already filled with existing backlog, and I figure that a minimum of $0.16 per Q is easy - so 4 months from now, the ttm EPS will be at least $0.70 if not more, and the P/E at current levels would be under 20. Given their industry group and recent growth rate, a much higher price could easily be supported. But I would like to see more signs of volume accumulation here.
 
After the next earnings report the IBD EPS ranking should go over 85, and the RS is over 90 already, so it should start appearing on IBD radar screens for the first time - including the weekend review. Perhaps it will be a month or so before the next clear direction becomes visible.
 
Thanks again,
 
Ian
 
 
 
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Friday, January 18, 2002 3:36 PM
Subject: Re:ELTE (was [CANSLIM] Katherine-Opinion please?]

Hi Ian,
 
Your question has me wondering whether the sell rules that I follow translate perfectly to thinly traded stocks. But I'll tell you what I see and the way I would read it if I were to own it:
 
-After the B/O at 7.13, stock moves up and consolidates for about 5 weeks. This is a "valid" consolidation so that makes the previous base low 8.01 which was printed on 11/23/01.
-Just as a quick check for "overextension" that means that the stock is 70% above the 200dMA (7.02), 15% above the 50dMA (10.43) and 49.6% above the base low (8.01). It gets a yellow flag for being 70% above the 200dMA according to WON's sell rule #34, but does not get a red flag for the Rubberband Sell Rule.
-After the consolidation and breakout 12/18 the stock has started to show signs of stress. This could easily be market related, but no way to tell.
-1/2/02: New high on low volume. Red flag.
-1/10/02 & 1/11/02- two days with little or no price progress on high volume. Red flag.
-With 1 yellow and 2 red flags I thought it worth doing a PE Extension check. I've reconstructed the PE at the time of the B/O in October using trailing EPS numbers for the prior quarters. That puts it at $7.13/$.29 = 24.59. The extension warning would then be a forward PE of 24.59*2.21= 54.3. Let's see. DGO doesn't have any estimates, which means it isn't followed by enough analysts. I checked the internet to see if I could find anything and ran across this EPS/Rev snapshot:
 
 
I am alarmed by the essentially flat revenues over the last 4 years, so I am going to go with the EPS estimates in my VectorVest software which reads a measly $.02. That puts the current forward looking PE at $11.98/$0.02 = 599! I'll have to mark that Red Flag.
 
One note is that its industry is fairly healthy, consolidating after rising, not overly extended and currently ranked in the 2nd quartile.
 
I'll let you take it from there!
 
Katherine
----- Original Message -----
From: Ian
Sent: Friday, January 18, 2002 4:40 PM
Subject: [CANSLIM] Katherine - Opinion please?

Would tuesdays distribution day for ELTE make you exit the stock at this point? Do you have any other insights into the chart?
 
I would appreciate your analysis - it is the one big recent winner I am wondering what to do with. Based on all of my past experiences, and knowing the companies outlook, my gut tells me that it needs to consolidate here, but will run into the $20's by mid-year. But I'd rather listen to the chart. I fear I've held it long enough that I may be complacent.
 
Thank you.
 
Ian
- --Boundary_(ID_pKaEqaqqjzJcLicLaHpO3Q)-- - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Sat, 19 Jan 2002 01:25:34 -0500 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: Re:ELTE (was [CANSLIM] Katherine-Opinion please?] This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------=_NextPart_000_01A3_01C1A088.30F3B940 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable I agree, Ian. My second trip on this stock has nearly made up the loss = from the first voyage. Looks more promising now than the first time I = tried it. Sequential growth particularly impressive. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net AIM: TexWorley ----- Original Message -----=20 From: Ian=20 To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20 Sent: Friday, January 18, 2002 8:01 PM Subject: Re: Re:ELTE (was [CANSLIM] Katherine-Opinion please?] Thanks a lot for the chart analysis. The low volume during the new = high to $13.50, and the high volume/no progress days on 1/10, 1/11, and = 1/15 were the things that concerned me. I convinced myself that the = low-volume high was just a case of 'too much, too fast' off the $5 = October low. The recent high volume/no movement days are what concern = me. There shouldn't be much concern with P/E. The company claimed that Q4 = 2001, and Q1 2002 were already filled with existing backlog, and I = figure that a minimum of $0.16 per Q is easy - so 4 months from now, the = ttm EPS will be at least $0.70 if not more, and the P/E at current = levels would be under 20. Given their industry group and recent growth = rate, a much higher price could easily be supported. But I would like to = see more signs of volume accumulation here.=20 After the next earnings report the IBD EPS ranking should go over 85, = and the RS is over 90 already, so it should start appearing on IBD radar = screens for the first time - including the weekend review. Perhaps it = will be a month or so before the next clear direction becomes visible. Thanks again, Ian ----- Original Message -----=20 From: Katherine Malm=20 To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20 Sent: Friday, January 18, 2002 3:36 PM Subject: Re:ELTE (was [CANSLIM] Katherine-Opinion please?] Hi Ian, Your question has me wondering whether the sell rules that I follow = translate perfectly to thinly traded stocks. But I'll tell you what I = see and the way I would read it if I were to own it: -After the B/O at 7.13, stock moves up and consolidates for about 5 = weeks. This is a "valid" consolidation so that makes the previous base = low 8.01 which was printed on 11/23/01. -Just as a quick check for "overextension" that means that the stock = is 70% above the 200dMA (7.02), 15% above the 50dMA (10.43) and 49.6% = above the base low (8.01). It gets a yellow flag for being 70% above the = 200dMA according to WON's sell rule #34, but does not get a red flag for = the Rubberband Sell Rule. -After the consolidation and breakout 12/18 the stock has started to = show signs of stress. This could easily be market related, but no way to = tell. -1/2/02: New high on low volume. Red flag. -1/10/02 & 1/11/02- two days with little or no price progress on = high volume. Red flag. -With 1 yellow and 2 red flags I thought it worth doing a PE = Extension check. I've reconstructed the PE at the time of the B/O in = October using trailing EPS numbers for the prior quarters. That puts it = at $7.13/$.29 =3D 24.59. The extension warning would then be a forward = PE of 24.59*2.21=3D 54.3. Let's see. DGO doesn't have any estimates, = which means it isn't followed by enough analysts. I checked the internet = to see if I could find anything and ran across this EPS/Rev snapshot: = http://yahoo.marketguide.com/MGI/mg.asp?target=3D/stocks/companyinformati= on/highlights&Ticker=3DELTE I am alarmed by the essentially flat revenues over the last 4 years, = so I am going to go with the EPS estimates in my VectorVest software = which reads a measly $.02. That puts the current forward looking PE at = $11.98/$0.02 =3D 599! I'll have to mark that Red Flag. One note is that its industry is fairly healthy, consolidating after = rising, not overly extended and currently ranked in the 2nd quartile. I'll let you take it from there! Katherine ----- Original Message -----=20 From: Ian=20 To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20 Sent: Friday, January 18, 2002 4:40 PM Subject: [CANSLIM] Katherine - Opinion please? Would tuesdays distribution day for ELTE make you exit the stock = at this point? Do you have any other insights into the chart? I would appreciate your analysis - it is the one big recent winner = I am wondering what to do with. Based on all of my past experiences, and = knowing the companies outlook, my gut tells me that it needs to = consolidate here, but will run into the $20's by mid-year. But I'd = rather listen to the chart. I fear I've held it long enough that I may = be complacent. Thank you. Ian - ------=_NextPart_000_01A3_01C1A088.30F3B940 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
I agree, Ian. My second trip on this stock has = nearly made=20 up the loss from the first voyage. Looks more promising now than the = first time=20 I tried it. Sequential growth particularly impressive.
 
Tom Worley
stkguru@netside.net
AIM:=20 TexWorley
----- Original Message -----
From:=20 Ian =
Sent: Friday, January 18, 2002 = 8:01=20 PM
Subject: Re: Re:ELTE (was = [CANSLIM]=20 Katherine-Opinion please?]

Thanks a lot for the chart analysis. The low = volume during=20 the new high to $13.50, and the high volume/no progress days on 1/10, = 1/11,=20 and 1/15 were the things that concerned me. I convinced myself that = the=20 low-volume high was just a case of 'too much, too fast' off the $5 = October=20 low. The recent high volume/no movement days are what concern=20 me.
 
There shouldn't be much concern with P/E. The = company=20 claimed that Q4 2001, and Q1 2002 were already filled with existing = backlog,=20 and I figure that a minimum of $0.16 per Q is easy - so 4 months from = now, the=20 ttm EPS will be at least $0.70 if not more, and the P/E at current = levels=20 would be under 20. Given their industry group and recent growth rate, = a much=20 higher price could easily be supported. But I would like to see more = signs of=20 volume accumulation here.
 
After the next earnings report the IBD EPS ranking = should go=20 over 85, and the RS is over 90 already, so it should start appearing = on IBD=20 radar screens for the first time - including the weekend review. = Perhaps it=20 will be a month or so before the next clear direction becomes=20 visible.
 
Thanks again,
 
Ian
 
 
 
----- Original Message -----
From:=20 Katherine=20 Malm
Sent: Friday, January 18, = 2002 3:36=20 PM
Subject: Re:ELTE (was = [CANSLIM]=20 Katherine-Opinion please?]

Hi Ian,
 
Your question has me wondering whether the sell rules that I = follow=20 translate perfectly to thinly traded stocks. But I'll tell you what = I see=20 and the way I would read it if I were to own it:
 
-After the B/O at 7.13, stock moves up and consolidates for = about 5=20 weeks. This is a "valid" consolidation so that makes the previous = base low=20 8.01 which was printed on 11/23/01.
-Just as a quick check for "overextension" that means that the = stock is=20 70% above the 200dMA (7.02), 15% above the 50dMA (10.43) and 49.6% = above the=20 base low (8.01). It gets a yellow flag for being 70% above the = 200dMA=20 according to WON's sell rule #34, but does not get a red flag for = the=20 Rubberband Sell Rule.
-After the consolidation and breakout 12/18 the stock has = started to=20 show signs of stress. This could easily be market related, but no = way to=20 tell.
-1/2/02: New high on low volume. Red flag.
-1/10/02 & 1/11/02- two days with little or no price = progress on=20 high volume. Red flag.
-With 1 yellow and 2 red flags I thought it worth doing a PE = Extension=20 check. I've reconstructed the PE at the time of the B/O in October = using=20 trailing EPS numbers for the prior quarters. That puts it at = $7.13/$.29 =3D=20 24.59. The extension warning would then be a forward PE of = 24.59*2.21=3D 54.3.=20 Let's see. DGO doesn't have any estimates, which means it isn't = followed by=20 enough analysts. I checked the internet to see if I could find = anything and=20 ran across this EPS/Rev snapshot:
 
http://yahoo.marketguide.com/MGI= /mg.asp?target=3D/stocks/companyinformation/highlights&Ticker=3DELTE<= /A>
 
I am alarmed by the essentially flat revenues over the last 4 = years, so=20 I am going to go with the EPS estimates in my VectorVest software = which=20 reads a measly $.02. That puts the current forward looking PE at=20 $11.98/$0.02 =3D 599! I'll have to mark that Red Flag.
 
One note is that its industry is fairly healthy, consolidating = after=20 rising, not overly extended and currently ranked in the 2nd=20 quartile.
 
I'll let you take it from there!
 
Katherine
----- Original Message ----- =
From:=20 Ian =
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com= =20
Sent: Friday, January 18, = 2002 4:40=20 PM
Subject: [CANSLIM] = Katherine -=20 Opinion please?

Would tuesdays distribution day for ELTE make = you exit=20 the stock at this point? Do you have any other insights into the=20 chart?
 
I would appreciate your analysis - it is the = one big=20 recent winner I am wondering what to do with. Based on all of my = past=20 experiences, and knowing the companies outlook, my gut tells me = that it=20 needs to consolidate here, but will run into the $20's by = mid-year.=20 But I'd rather listen to the chart. I fear I've held it long = enough that I=20 may be complacent.
 
Thank you.
 
Ian
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