From: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com (canslim-digest) To: canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Subject: canslim-digest V2 #208 Reply-To: canslim Sender: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Errors-To: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Precedence: bulk X-No-Archive: yes canslim-digest Friday, April 24 1998 Volume 02 : Number 208 In this issue: [CANSLIM] Internet stocks Re: [CANSLIM] Review of an old star- KEG [CANSLIM] M & psychology [CANSLIM] Re: Mike [CANSLIM] M & psychology [CANSLIM] Re: Charting software--WOWS Re: [CANSLIM] SDII RE: [CANSLIM] M & psychology Re: [CANSLIM] M & psychology Re: [CANSLIM] To Connie Mack on the List Re: [CANSLIM] Re: DB & Mike [CANSLIM] That elusive "M" Re: [CANSLIM] Internet stocks [CANSLIM] Re: MDC Breakout [CANSLIM] IBD 4/24 "Sister Act" Re: [CANSLIM] M & psychology [CANSLIM] SEG (not CANSLIM) [CANSLIM] KTEL Re: [CANSLIM] M & psychology [CANSLIM] M today Re: [CANSLIM] SEG (not CANSLIM) Re: [CANSLIM] Langston's Comment on History of List Re: [CANSLIM] M & psychology Re: [CANSLIM] M today Re: [CANSLIM] M today Re: [CANSLIM] M & psychology Re: [CANSLIM] M today RE: [CANSLIM] KTEL ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Date: Fri, 24 Apr 1998 09:02:24 -0400 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] Internet stocks Looks like we could be seeing a resurgencence in many of the internet stocks on the open. I note that a number are being quoted up before the open including YHOO, XCIT, ELNK, LHSPF among others. Tom W - - ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 24 Apr 1998 09:06:38 -0400 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Review of an old star- KEG Per DGO, RS 17, EPS 98, GRS 16, A/D B, Timeliness C, u/d 0.9. Nice basing pattern, but no evidence of a pending breakout yet. I would want to see crude prices at least stabilize, if not start trending up, before I would get optimistic unless you are willing to buy, hold and wait. Tom W - -----Original Message----- From: Dan Sutton To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Date: Friday, April 24, 1998 8:50 AM Subject: [CANSLIM] Review of an old star- KEG >I know CANSLIM is not a bottomfishing system, but take a look at KEG >Energy. My numbers are from TELESCAN so will not be the same as DG's, >but the correlations should be correct. EPS rank (TELESCANS) is at 99, >Price Rank(close cousin to DG's relative strength) is only at 111, which >probaly equates to a 60-70 range on DG...BUT it is climbing steadily. >KEG is outperforming its group as far as Price rank and growth. It's >projected earnings growth this year is 110%, it's had 4 positive >earnings surprises out of the last 4 quarters, earnings per share have >increased each of the last 4 quarters, it's right at it's 50 DMA, and >broke the 10 DMA seven days ago (broke 50 DMA three days ago), it is 20% >above its six week low and 7% above its 4 week low (indicating it has >begun to move higher), ROE is 19.5, sales are up 47%, and the Price to >Sales ratio is only a .9. I realize this doesn't qualify for a current >CANSLIM stock because it is down so far for the year....but a fallen >star from the CANSLIM ranks is often a great candidate if the risk is >low and the fundamentals are good. > >Ian's Gas In Tank projection shows this one should move to around $21.50 >to $22 ....it's currently at $16.80. > >Comments? > >- > - - ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 24 Apr 1998 15:17:36 +0200 From: Johan Van Houtven Subject: [CANSLIM] M & psychology Don't know about you, but I find 'M' fascinating. 'M' is an important factor in CANSLIM. WON says it's about 50% of the whole ball game. It's a good thing that we have a way to recognize when 'M' is giving a buy signal after we come out of a correction. (The 1% up day followed by another 1% up day...) I mean: I certainly wasn't expecting that the market would rise this high this quickly at the end of December/ beginning of January. Was anyone of the members expecting this? I mean did you expect this BEFORE when had the two 1% up days mentioned on this mailing list late January? I remember that a lot of members, me included, were bearish back then. I even believed that the year would 'flat' and that next year, 1999, we would resume the bull in a big way, as a professional investor had written in his newsletter. How come I, and most others that I know, were expecting this bearish scenario? I find the psychology of all of this fascinating. This psychology is not important to play the CANSLIM way correctly, we just have to watch the buy signal, but I still like to know what is behind all of this. Don't you? What were the reasons for the bull to resume? Who makes this happen? I mean, is there some critical mass of big players that get the same bullish looking information over a realitively short period? I wonder how a bull market gets started. We are just riding on their backs. But who are the players that make the two 1% up days happen? And what information do they have and where do they get it? - --- Johan Van Houtven - - ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 24 Apr 1998 06:46:39 -0700 (PDT) From: dbphoenix Subject: [CANSLIM] Re: Mike <> Too bad we can't both look at the same chart standing side-by-side. Whether using a weekly or daily chart, I still see OBV tracking the price. Since the "formula" is so simple, it's unlikely that software should matter. MFI is another matter, though even here I see little if any divergence. Though I just may not be seeing what everyone else seems to see, there's always a danger of seeing patterns in indicators that aren't really there because we want them to be there. Like tea leaves. And in any case, we have to remember that indicators are called "indicators" and not "proofs" or "guarantees" for a reason. Whatever scenario one creates based on these indicators can melt away like a popsicle in July, and to cling to that scenario regardless of what the market tells you is a sure way to lose money (which is one reason why I avoid discussions about "what the market is going to do") Personally, I find indicators to be of best use when confirming activity around a trendline, but this is because I follow the "buy low sell high" philosophy of the CS value player, rather than the "buy high sell higher" approach of the CS momentum player. But, like the French say, every pot must sit on its own bottom. _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - - ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 24 Apr 1998 15:17:36 +0200 From: Johan Van Houtven Subject: [CANSLIM] M & psychology Don't know about you, but I find 'M' fascinating. 'M' is an important factor in CANSLIM. WON says it's about 50% of the whole ball game. It's a good thing that we have a way to recognize when 'M' is giving a buy signal after we come out of a correction. (The 1% up day followed by another 1% up day...) I mean: I certainly wasn't expecting that the market would rise this high this quickly at the end of December/ beginning of January. Was anyone of the members expecting this? I mean did you expect this BEFORE when had the two 1% up days mentioned on this mailing list late January? I remember that a lot of members, me included, were bearish back then. I even believed that the year would 'flat' and that next year, 1999, we would resume the bull in a big way, as a professional investor had written in his newsletter. How come I, and most others that I know, were expecting this bearish scenario? I find the psychology of all of this fascinating. This psychology is not important to play the CANSLIM way correctly, we just have to watch the buy signal, but I still like to know what is behind all of this. Don't you? What were the reasons for the bull to resume? Who makes this happen? I mean, is there some critical mass of big players that get the same bullish looking information over a realitively short period? I wonder how a bull market gets started. We are just riding on their backs. But who are the players that make the two 1% up days happen? And what information do they have and where do they get it? - --- Johan Van Houtven - - ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 24 Apr 1998 06:45:03 -0700 (PDT) From: dbphoenix Subject: [CANSLIM] Re: Charting software--WOWS Before plopping down $2.50 a day for TC2000, at least consider the WOWS program. Not only can you scan for technical criteria but for fundamental criteria (as supplied by Market Guide) as well. The download costs $35 a month, which you can make back in approximately 5 minutes. - --Db _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - - ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 24 Apr 1998 07:06:06 -0700 From: Tim Fisher Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] SDII Yeah, they also reported earnings, beat estimates handily, but poor timing on the report! Should have waited given the market yesterday. At 10:18 PM 4/23/98 -0500, you wrote: >I would classify SDII as a failed B/O right now. This may be due >to today's retracement on the NASDAQ - but if I'd bought, I'd be >out - any kind of a move back into the base means I exit. Since >you bought earlier - you may want to hang on. The EPS/RS keep >it on the viewscreen. > > >Dave Cameron > > >Tim Fisher wrote: >> >> I bot on the last B/O. Someone is just catching on that side airbags which >> several major US mfgrs. have announced for 99 or 00 cars mean $$$ for these >> guys. Although the insiders and institutions both at 40% should make you go >> hmmmm... The institutional numbers were much lower when I bot, which I guess >> indicates that the funds have jumped on board in the last month or two, >> which curiously hasn't driven the price up very much. >> >> At 11:52 PM 4/22/98 -0500, Dave Cameron wrote: >> >SDII had a good move today as well -- RS 88, EPS 97 - with a low >> >PE of 21. About 8 million share outstanding. Last 3 quarters >> >show accelerating growth of 29%, 46%, and 72%. I'd buy, but >> Tim Fisher, 1995 President, Pacific Fishery Biologists Ore-ROCK-On Rockhounding Web Site PFB Information mailto:tim@orerockon.com WWW http://OreRockOn.com - - ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 24 Apr 1998 07:12:18 -0700 From: Brian Nash Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] M & psychology >>> Was anyone of the members expecting this? <<< I was a monstrous grizzly bear coming into the year. The only correct thing I did was to drop this posture on the Jan 20th followthrough day. >>> How come I, and most others that I know, were expecting this bearish scenario? <<< For me, mainly one word: Asia. The inverted yield curve was starting to hurt the financials. Technology was suffering. I was determined not to suffer the syndrome of "what worked last time", so I probably went overboard in imagining a market not led by financials and technology. For me, the operative theory was Domestic, Defensive, Dialed-in. I have owned this year: a homebuilder, a drug company, a retail stock, a supermarket and 2 staffing services companies. Also, advisory sentiment was (and still is) at near all-time bullish extremes. >>> What were the reasons for the bull to resume? <<< In this case, I really mean the 'H' part: IMHO, strong inflows into index funds put fund managers in danger of underperforming the S&P for the 4th straight year. The ramp in February and March was a result of their playing catchup. Not exactly what you'd call a solid foundation for a market advance. Now cash positions are at extreme lows. > -----Original Message----- > From: Johan Van Houtven [SMTP:Johan.VanHoutven@ping.be] > Sent: Friday, April 24, 1998 9:18 AM > To: canslim@lists.xmission.com > Subject: [CANSLIM] M & psychology > > Don't know about you, but I find 'M' fascinating. 'M' is an important > factor in CANSLIM. WON says it's about 50% of the whole ball game. > > It's a good thing that we have a way to recognize when 'M' is giving a buy > signal after we come out of a correction. (The 1% up day followed by > another 1% up day...) > > I mean: I certainly wasn't expecting that the market would rise this high > this quickly at the end of December/ beginning of January. Was anyone of > the members expecting this? I mean did you expect this BEFORE when had the > two 1% up days mentioned on this mailing list late January? > > I remember that a lot of members, me included, were bearish back then. I > even believed that the year would 'flat' and that next year, 1999, we > would > resume the bull in a big way, as a professional investor had written in > his > newsletter. > > How come I, and most others that I know, were expecting this bearish > scenario? I find the psychology of all of this fascinating. This > psychology > is not important to play the CANSLIM way correctly, we just have to watch > the buy signal, but I still like to know what is behind all of this. Don't > you? > > What were the reasons for the bull to resume? Who makes this happen? I > mean, is there some critical mass of big players that get the same bullish > looking information over a realitively short period? > > I wonder how a bull market gets started. We are just riding on their > backs. > But who are the players that make the two 1% up days happen? And what > information do they have and where do they get it? > > > > --- Johan Van Houtven > > > > - - - ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 24 Apr 1998 07:06:08 -0700 From: Tim Fisher Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] M & psychology My pet theory: Too much money coming in from Baby Boomers and their offspring (me!) and the funds and 401k's have nowhere else to put it. I would take anybody's projection and add a flat percentage on the upside, even if it's a down trend, it will not be as severe. The bottom line is that valuations will have to go up cause there is nowhere else to stick all those billions. So when you see the Talking Heads on CNBC complain about valuations being unrealistic and the market being overbought, I'd be willing to bet they will be "forgetting" they said that when they finally catch on. I still think the removal of capital gains on home sales will put even more billions on the table, I'm sure we haven't even seen the beginning of that source of new money yet. At 03:17 PM 4/24/98 +0200, you wrote: > >How come I, and most others that I know, were expecting this bearish >scenario? I find the psychology of all of this fascinating. This psychology >is not important to play the CANSLIM way correctly, we just have to watch >the buy signal, but I still like to know what is behind all of this. Don't >you? > >What were the reasons for the bull to resume? Who makes this happen? I >mean, is there some critical mass of big players that get the same bullish >looking information over a realitively short period? > >I wonder how a bull market gets started. We are just riding on their backs. >But who are the players that make the two 1% up days happen? And what >information do they have and where do they get it? > > > >--- Johan Van Houtven > Tim Fisher, 1995 President, Pacific Fishery Biologists Ore-ROCK-On Rockhounding Web Site PFB Information mailto:tim@orerockon.com WWW http://OreRockOn.com - - ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 24 Apr 1998 07:19:13 -0800 From: "Patrick Wahl" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] To Connie Mack on the List > From: musicant@autobahn.org (Dan Musicant) > To: canslim@lists.xmission.com > I saw a piece on TV about day traders who work in settings prepared > for them professionally where many traders work side by side. It was > said that these persons typically hold onto a stock for a matter of, > say 5 minutes. [I have wondered if this is true or fallacious. You > can't believe everything you read (or see on TV)]. I don't think you True. Forbes did a cover story on this a couple of issues ago, very interesting. Definitely not for me. One person in the article personally traded something like 40 million shares in one year. - - ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 24 Apr 1998 08:10:10 -0700 From: "Robert Venchiarutti" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Re: DB & Mike >Personally, I find indicators to be of best use when confirming >activity around a trendline, but this is because I follow the "buy low >sell high" philosophy of the CS value player, rather than the "buy >high sell higher" approach of the CS momentum player. But, like the >French say, every pot must sit on its own bottom. > I didn't know there was a "buy low sell high" philosophy of CANSLIM. Do you mean you buy CANSLIM stocks as they bounce off of important support areas in anticipation of a rally in price to new highs? - - ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 24 Apr 1998 11:50:35 -0400 From: Paul Altman Subject: [CANSLIM] That elusive "M" >Dan Musicant wrote: >Since you are being so circumspect (and this is fine, whatever you are >comfortable with), I'll make one suggestion that I'm sure many others >would second: don't droop down for your first prey until the "M" in >CANSLIM is really headed North! They say it's the lion's share of >what counts. "It's hard to get a tan when it's raining outside". Good >luck! Ah, the prickly "M" question. :-) I'm sure there have been many threads on this subject. After all, if you had a pretty good sense of which way "M" was going, you could dispense with CANSLIM altogether and retire to Tahiti. I'm curious as to which indicator you are using for this. By the way, you quoted me as saying I'm waiting to find a CANSLIM strategy that would work. Actually, I said I'm waiting to find one that would work for _me_, meaning I want to quantify a substantial portion of the CANSLIM formula so that I can come as close as possible to "system-trading" CANSLIM. I notice that Jim O'Shaugnessy did a very interesting of suggesting an objective CANSLIM-ish system in "Invest Like the Best." Regards, Paul - - ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 24 Apr 1998 16:26:57 +0200 From: Johan Van Houtven Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Internet stocks At 09:02 AM 24/04/98 -0400, you wrote: >Looks like we could be seeing a resurgencence in many of the internet >stocks on the open. I note that a number are being quoted up before >the open including YHOO, XCIT, ELNK, LHSPF among others. Tom, LHSPF is not an internet stock. They are in the business of voice-assisted products (voice recognition and speeech synthesis). - --- Johan Van Houtven - - ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 24 Apr 1998 13:12:03 -0400 (EDT) From: "John Nogueira (mssm2000)" Subject: [CANSLIM] Re: MDC Breakout Members - The chart of MDC bothers me because it doesn't really qualify as a flat base. If you look at the chart, you'll notice that it corrected more than 15% since it's previous high of 18 7/8. To me, this is a sign of weakness. Lately, I've been pretty strict with my chart selections. I adhere closely to WON's descriptions of "cup with handle" and "flat base". In my experience I've found that buying a CANSLIM stock at the correct pivot point, off of a flawless chart formation, on a breakout day with large volume (>2-3X ADV) will often return >20% profits in only a few days (i.e. MDLK). On the other hand, quasi-CANSLIM stocks have given me mediocre returns or have stopped me out after a month or two. These days, I like to be patient and don't mind being in cash so much - I've learned that waiting for a real solid CANSLIM stock to come around is much more profitable than investing in several ambiguous CANSLIM stocks. Lots of us have been announcing breakouts lately in their posts - which I definitely think is a great thing. But I would like to see members describing these breakouts and the patterns they are coming off of. For instance, I think it means more to say that "XYZ has broken out of a 7- week TIGHT BASE on 5X ADV today" than to say that "XYZ broke out today on huge volume." Furthermore, lots of times that I check the charts of "announced" breakouts - I do see a day with a price increase on large volume - but I don't see a recognizable chart formation to go along with it. I think that if we take the time to describe the breakouts we are announcing in our posts, we might find flaws or even postive characteristics in the charts. I don't mean to scare-off people from posting breakouts. CANSLIM is subjective and many of us will read charts differently. I think this is why it is VERY important to describe our interpretation of a breakout when we do announce one. John F. Nogueira, Jr. - - ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 24 Apr 1998 12:44:27 -0500 (CDT) From: mckeener@ix.netcom.com Subject: [CANSLIM] IBD 4/24 "Sister Act" Hi Everyone, There's a good article about how twin sisters invest in today's, 4/24, IBD. They use an estimate service to get forecasts for 3 to 5 years. Anyone know the names of some services that do this? Thank you. Connie, you are an asset to this group and I'm certain I'm not the only one who appreciates your input. By the way, I am still studying your charting style. Charles, I also think there are too many people out there who invest without any system, discipline or direction. CANSLIM isn't the only way, as Johan said, but I sensed that's not what Charles meant. And, Tom, always appreciate your analysis of the general market, U.S. and abroad. I'm looking forward to the day I'll add something really worthwhile to this group. Regards, Mary - - ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 24 Apr 1998 13:50:55 -0400 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] M & psychology One aspect that has changed dramatically my view of historically valid "valuations" is the absence of inflation despite high employment and a strong economy. A trailing PE of 22 with inflation at 8 or 9% and 5.5% unemployment doesn't look as "quality" now with PE rates at 27 or so but next to no inflation and 4.5% unemployment. Likewise, with interest rates remaining at near all time levels, servicing corp debt isn't eating up profits like it did historically. Yes, I remain concerned about current valuations, but more so from the psychological standpoint (e.g. how many others are thinking like me instead of purely historically??) but not as concerned as I have been. And I do agree with the comments on money flow resulting from record participation in 401 plans. Add to that record (or nearly anyway) savings rates, often using mutual funds, and that's a lot of money to be placed regardless of "M". Tom W - -----Original Message----- From: Tim Fisher To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Date: Friday, April 24, 1998 10:14 AM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] M & psychology >My pet theory: Too much money coming in from Baby Boomers and their >offspring (me!) and the funds and 401k's have nowhere else to put it. I >would take anybody's projection and add a flat percentage on the upside, >even if it's a down trend, it will not be as severe. The bottom line is that >valuations will have to go up cause there is nowhere else to stick all those >billions. So when you see the Talking Heads on CNBC complain about valuations >being unrealistic and the market being overbought, I'd be willing to bet >they will be "forgetting" they said that when they finally catch on. I still >think the removal of capital gains on home sales will put even more billions >on the table, I'm sure we haven't even seen the beginning of that source of >new money yet. > - - ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 24 Apr 1998 20:12:35 +0200 From: Johan Van Houtven Subject: [CANSLIM] SEG (not CANSLIM) Mary wrote: >Charles, I also think there are too many people out there who >invest without any system, discipline or direction. CANSLIM >isn't the only way, as Johan said, but I sensed that's not >what Charles meant. BTW, when I was talking about SEG ,the investment strategy that made it a buy a while ago, is described in Stan Weinstein's excellent book: "Secrets for Profiting in Bull and Bera Markets". (Couldn't remember the names when I posted the previous message.) I think this book is a good read for many CANSLIM-ers. Johan Van Houtven CLICK! N.V. / Wilrijk, Belgium - - ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 24 Apr 1998 14:33:29 -0400 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] KTEL Paybacks are sure "heck". KTEL down nearly 7 as one analyst has the audacity to point out that the king isn't wearing any clothes (has no history of internet sales). Tom W - - ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 24 Apr 1998 20:36:43 +0200 From: Johan Van Houtven Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] M & psychology Tom wrote: >And I do agree with the comments on money flow resulting from record >participation in 401 plans. Add to that record (or nearly anyway) >savings rates, often using mutual funds, and that's a lot of money to >be placed regardless of "M". First time I read this argument was a few months ago. I believe it was on the CBS MarketWatch page. I do not think it can clarify WHY the ralley all of a sudden starts. The biggies must have better reasons to start buying again after a correction, than solely money inflow IMO. I want to find out what they know and how the know it around the time that we have these famous 1% up days. Of course they are not going to tell me. I have no illusions about that. I'd love to wander around at some of these big fund managers trading offices for a week or so around that time. Johan Van Houtven CLICK! N.V. / Wilrijk, Belgium - - ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 24 Apr 1998 20:43:05 +0200 From: Johan Van Houtven Subject: [CANSLIM] M today The moment we got near the 1870 area on the NASDAQ selling accelerated. Here's what I want to know: Did anyone here start to sell for that reason? I do not expect so, since CANSLIM does say that anywhere that I know of. So it must be others. Who? Sofisicated individual players? Do'nt believe that. So I guess it must be funds and they are are probably doing it with clever computerised selling. Anyone know anything about computerised selling? Where can I learn more about it. Did a quick search at AltaVista search engine, but got nothing. Sorry, to be so obsessivly interested in 'M' at the moment... B^) Johan Van Houtven CLICK! N.V. / Wilrijk, Belgium - - ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 24 Apr 1998 14:45:23 EDT From: DCSquires Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] SEG (not CANSLIM) In a message dated 98-04-24 14:12:17 EDT, you write: << BTW, when I was talking about SEG ,the investment strategy that made it a buy a while ago, is described in Stan Weinstein's excellent book: "Secrets for Profiting in Bull and Bera Markets". (Couldn't remember the names when I posted the previous message.) I think this book is a good read for many CANSLIM-ers. >> Yes, good book. David Ryan suggests this one in his interview with Jack Schwager in Market Wizards. DCsquires - - ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 24 Apr 1998 14:52:03 -0400 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Langston's Comment on History of List I know when I joined this group about two years ago, I never expected to see it reach this point. You done good, Jeff. So, when's the celebration party?? You are going to hold it some place other than Utah, right?? Tom W - -----Original Message----- From: Craig Griffin To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Date: Thursday, April 23, 1998 11:12 AM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Langston's Comment on History of List >Jeff and Everyone, > >You might not be aware that there was an article titled "Top 5 Mailing >Lists" in PCWorld Online (not in print edition) in December '97. This group >was one of the 5 top! > >Here is the link to the article >http://www.pcworld.com/news/daily/data/1297/971217160221.html > >Congratulations to all the members. > >Best regards, >Craig > > > >- > - - ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 24 Apr 1998 14:58:37 EDT From: DCSquires Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] M & psychology In a message dated 98-04-24 14:38:04 EDT, you write: << I do not think it can clarify WHY the ralley all of a sudden starts. The biggies must have better reasons to start buying again after a correction, than solely money inflow IMO. >> I think the rally suddenly starts because of precieved, relative value to the people that control the big buying power. Couple this with lack of selling preasure and the market can move up extremely fast....thus a 1% OR 2% day to the upside << I'd love to wander around at some of these big fund managers trading offices for a week or so around that time. >> I honestly believe that many of the big boys don't know much more than we do when it comes to the general market. For example, Every fund manager around was pounding the table in late December/early January for a "January effect" rally..........didn't happen until February. They could not will the market higher because the selling pressure had not subsided. They may have more info and research..but WON's market bottoming techniques are pretty great if you ask me. The big boys are just as lemming-like and many other investors, IMHO. DSquires - - ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 24 Apr 1998 15:07:29 EDT From: DCSquires Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] M today In a message dated 98-04-24 14:42:49 EDT, you write: << So it must be others. Who? Sofisicated individual players? Do'nt believe that. So I guess it must be funds and they are are probably doing it with clever computerised selling. >> I think It was a sell program. IF you look at a chart of the SPX intraday you can see it there too. Very heavy selling pressure. The Nas was only able to move back above its trendline for one day. Market breadth sucks! At lest the volume is coming down a bit. Looks like we are now looking for a failed rally. - - ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 24 Apr 1998 21:18:54 +0200 From: Johan Van Houtven Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] M today DC wrote: >In a message dated 98-04-24 14:42:49 EDT, you write: > ><< So it must be others. Who? Sofisicated individual players? Do'nt believe > that. So I guess it must be funds and they are are probably doing it with > clever computerised selling. >> > >I think It was a sell program. IF you look at a chart of the SPX intraday you >can see it there too. > >Very heavy selling pressure. The Nas was only able to move back above its >trendline for one day. Market breadth sucks! At lest the volume is coming down >a bit. >Looks like we are now looking for a failed rally. Yep. I love these days... especially when I'm 100% cash and can daytrade big then. Traded PFE (Pfizer) twice today for some nice extra spending money. I promise to put it all back in the American economy however, starting with a treat for the kids at Toys 'R Us in Orlando when we get there next week. :) Anyway, back to studying this potential correction in the making. Thanks for the interesting feedback! Johan Van Houtven CLICK! N.V. / Wilrijk, Belgium - - ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 24 Apr 1998 15:18:29 -0400 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] M & psychology If you did, I think you'd find a lot of "reacting" instead of acting. Mutual funds lately have a history of playing catch up, which is what this did in the first qtr. They listened to all the bearish comments and sat on cash, then saw the mkt once again racing away from them and started throwing their money at it. That added fuel to the fire. And I've been "preaching" about the inflow of fresh money into the mkt via funds for at least six months or more! Tom W - -----Original Message----- From: Johan Van Houtven To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Date: Friday, April 24, 1998 2:33 PM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] M & psychology > >First time I read this argument was a few months ago. I believe it was on >the CBS MarketWatch page. > >I do not think it can clarify WHY the ralley all of a sudden starts. The >biggies must have better reasons to start buying again after a correction, >than solely money inflow IMO. > >I want to find out what they know and how the know it around the time that >we have these famous 1% up days. Of course they are not going to tell me. >I have no illusions about that. > >I'd love to wander around at some of these big fund managers trading >offices for a week or so around that time. > > > > > >Johan Van Houtven >CLICK! N.V. / Wilrijk, Belgium > > >- > - - ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 24 Apr 1998 15:21:39 -0400 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] M today Johan, if I had to hazard a guess, I would think that less than 20% of all investment decisions/volume is based on CANSLIM. WARNING: that's strictly an opinion, purely gut feel, can't document it anywhere!! If you do manage to find an "inside track" on program trading, please post it. I know I would like to learn more. Tom W - -----Original Message----- From: Johan Van Houtven To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Date: Friday, April 24, 1998 2:39 PM Subject: [CANSLIM] M today >The moment we got near the 1870 area on the NASDAQ selling accelerated. > >Here's what I want to know: Did anyone here start to sell for that reason? > >I do not expect so, since CANSLIM does say that anywhere that I know of. > >So it must be others. Who? Sofisicated individual players? Do'nt believe >that. So I guess it must be funds and they are are probably doing it with >clever computerised selling. > >Anyone know anything about computerised selling? Where can I learn more >about it. Did a quick search at AltaVista search engine, but got nothing. > >Sorry, to be so obsessivly interested in 'M' at the moment... B^) > > > >Johan Van Houtven >CLICK! N.V. / Wilrijk, Belgium > > >- > - - ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 24 Apr 1998 12:42:31 -0700 From: Brian Nash Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] KTEL The heck with clothes; it doesn't even have a website. I thought the following "press release" was one of the most ham-handed attempts at penny stock manipulation that I have seen: =================================================== PR NewsWire Stock Investor Trading News Issues Strong Buy Rating on KTEL - ------------------------------------------------------------------------ AUSTIN, Texas, April 17 /PRNewswire/ -- Stock Investor Trading News has initiated coverage of K-tel International (Nasdaq: KTEL) with a "Long Term and Short Term Strong Buy." "We believe that K-tel offers investors a ground floor opportunity to participate in a retail segment that is expected to grow explosively in the months and years ahead," says Louis Riley, Analyst with Stock Investor Trading News ( http://www.sitn.com ). "Industry studies project that music e-tail (Internet retail) will grow from $135 million in revenues this year to over $1.5 billion through the year 2001, and we expect K-tel to garner a fair share of that market." "K-tel has a long operating history as a successful direct marketer of music, and we believe they will be able to successfully transfer that expertise to the Internet in a way that will revolutionize the industry. The company has spent much of the past year developing new direct-to-the-consumer marketing methods that will be implemented in conjunction with the more traditional search engine relationships (advertising arrangements) being used by competitors. These methods will be unveiled on May 1 when the company's new website goes live," says Mr. Riley. "We feel that K-tel's multimedia advertising approach will prove more effective than the strictly web-based marketing strategies being used by competitors." "K-tel has one of the largest and most diverse music master catalogs in the industry, with over 3500 Top 100 hits. This intellectual property has yielded sales of millions of compilation music albums over the years. But the big new story is that they will now offer over 250,000 titles through their new web site, not just their famous proprietary compilation recordings. You will be able to sample and order new releases from almost every label. This immediately puts K-tel squarely in competition with CDnow (Nasdaq: CDNW - news) and N2K (Nasdaq: NTKI - news) in one of the hottest segments of e-tail," says Mr. Riley. "We believe the stock is extremely undervalued. There is a glaring discrepancy between K-tel's valuation and its competitors. Competitor CDnow has a market capitalization of more than $532,000,000 and sells for more than 30 times trailing twelve months" (TTM) revenues. Competitor N2K has a market capitalization of more than $401,000,000 and sells for more than 35 times TTM revenues. In the last two quarters K-tel's revenues increased more than 47% over the same period a year ago, and yet the stock still trades at less than one times TTM revenues of more than $91,000,000. Moreover, in the last two quarters K-tel had greater revenues than CDnow and N2K's combined revenues for the past two years. If K-tel were to command N2K's price to sales multiple it would be a $850 stock. So there is obviously room for significant multiple expansion," says Mr. Riley. "The short-sellers" valuation argument that this should be a $5 stock is absolutely absurd. That would mean that this premier franchise could be had for less than 21% of TTM revenues. I challenge anyone to point to a successful Internet retailer selling at anything close to that multiple. The reason this stock languished in single digits for so long is that it has not been actively traded until now. The stock has an extremely small float of approximately 900,000 shares, as almost 72% of the outstanding shares are held by K-tel's Chairman, CEO, and founder Mr. Philip Kives, and another nearly 6% are held by other officers and directors. This small float, combined with the large short position that has been built in the stock in the past week as technical traders were emboldened by what initially appeared to be a textbook reversal day on April 15, should make for an explosive rally in the days ahead. We would not be surprised to see the stock move dramatically higher in a very short period of time. We think the stock could easily trade over $100 in the days or weeks ahead as the web site goes online and strategic relationships with Internet content aggregators are announced," says Mr. Riley. David Barney, Technical Analyst for Stock Investor Trading News, notes that "The momentum within the sector that has lifted many of these stocks to new highs has only recently been reflected in the shares of K-tel. It's hard to fight this kind of explosive move, and it usually doesn't pay," says Mr. Barney. "I would expect any short term dip in the price of the stock to quickly draw in retail buyers and the increased demand for the shares could be overwhelming. "The Internet group is the leading sector for the year and with many of these stocks already so extended, K-tel's technical picture actually looks pretty tame. We believe that the technical outlook is very promising and that this is only the beginning. "It's a common belief on the street that the average retail buyer can easily loose conviction and be shaken out of a stock after a rapid rise. But the Internet stocks have shattered these myths and some very experienced traders have been run over trying to short this group. As both a trader and an investor we are very excited about the company's future," says Mr. Barney =========================================================== > -----Original Message----- > From: Tom Worley [SMTP:stkguru@netside.net] > Sent: Friday, April 24, 1998 2:33 PM > To: CANSLIM > Subject: [CANSLIM] KTEL > > Paybacks are sure "heck". KTEL down nearly 7 as one analyst has the > audacity to point out that the king isn't wearing any clothes (has no > history of internet sales). > > Tom W > > > > - - - ------------------------------ End of canslim-digest V2 #208 ***************************** To unsubscribe to canslim-digest, send an email to "majordomo@xmission.com" with "unsubscribe canslim-digest" in the body of the message. For information on digests or retrieving files and old messages send "help" to the same address. Do not use quotes in your message.