From: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com (canslim-digest) To: canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Subject: canslim-digest V2 #210 Reply-To: canslim Sender: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Errors-To: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Precedence: bulk X-No-Archive: yes canslim-digest Saturday, April 25 1998 Volume 02 : Number 210 In this issue: [CANSLIM] "M": Signal accuracy vs granularity [CANSLIM] Datek Problems [CANSLIM] Connie Mack - 454 grams Re: [CANSLIM] Datek Problems Re: [CANSLIM] Connie Mack - 454 grams Re: [CANSLIM] Intro Re: [CANSLIM] Datek (was M) [CANSLIM] Can't Look up a Company - Bug Report Re: [CANSLIM] M Head Re: [CANSLIM] M Head Re: [CANSLIM] Re: Charting software--WOWS [CANSLIM] Breakouts (was MDC) [CANSLIM] Cash Position (was M Today) Re: [CANSLIM] Breakouts (was MDC) Re: [CANSLIM] M Head Re: [CANSLIM] Cash Position (was M Today) Re: [CANSLIM] M Head Re: [CANSLIM] M Head ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Date: Sat, 25 Apr 1998 01:58:08 -0400 From: Paul Altman Subject: [CANSLIM] "M": Signal accuracy vs granularity >Jeffry White wrote: > >Now, if you are suggesting a computerized system which plays the CANSLIM >"M" with index futures contracts, it's been done, and I can (and have >others) direct you there. I don't understand your point. You're saying that people have computerized, objective signals for market timing? Yes, I'm aware of many. But what I'm getting at is: are we simply market timers who are choosing our favorite high-beta investment vehicles to go long with? Or are we CANSLI(M) players? And if we can semi-accurately call "M", then why would any of us bother with CANSLIM? IOW, a stock-picking game that's dependent on knowing "M" is somewhat paradoxical, since if you know "M" you don't need to bother picking stocks. And picking stocks would be a poor proxy for market-timing, because if you knew "M", you could invest in high-beta "M" proxies with absolute certainty of making large profits. Whereas, playing CANSLIM stocks in an up market is a poor investment. It's too much of a gamble. Some will go up. Some will go down. So, help me out on this. Is the idea that CANSLIM is a hedge? That it's great in a bull market, and it's not so bad in a bear market? This certainly cannot be the first time that this idea has been introduced on this list. I assume this is a common question for CANSLIM players. And sure, I'd like a take a look at the info you have in mind. If you know of a way to do it successfully, than what are we debating? Why don't we just follow the signals that those futures traders are following? >If you are willing to let others do your >trading for you, with that system, you may be able to buy Tahiti in a >few short decades. Is this your point? Well, er, uh, yes. Putting aside the smaller question of who in my office pulls the trigger, my larger point was that if you know "M", you could theoretically become quite wealthy. And you'd be better off doing it without picking stocks. >a "pretty good sense of which way the "M"" is going is found in Chapter 7 of HTMMIS. Is this your opinion or WON's? I have studied Ch. 7 and find it to be the most confusing and sketchy of all of WON's writing. "If you miss the S&P or Dow Jones topping signals, which is exceedingly easy to do since they occur on only one or two days, you will be wrong on the direction of the market and wrong on almost everything you do." [Gulp!] FWIW, a well-known associate of WON's agreed with me about this. And how could they not? If we knew "M", we'd be wealthy. Do you know what WON has said in response to this type of criticism? I don't, and I'd sure like to hear from others who do. He's a very smart guy, so I have no doubt that he has made an interesting response. >True, we've not all >retired to Tahitian type environments, but if you will read that >chapter, study the indices and recognize how to identify the critical >price and volume indicators, watch sentiment, etc., you will be a lot >closer to at least a "Tahitian vacation" than if you simply ignore much >of the "M" effort that most, if not all, of us are trying so hard to get >a "pretty good sense of" every single day on this thread and off. We're not ignoring you. Really, we're not. We love you. :-) Let's get back to making money, shall we? Let me clarify what I see as the major rub with "M", Jeffry. Let's say you've decided on your favorite market-timing signal (or combination of indicators to produce a signal). We know from Ch. 7 that the signals shouldn't come very often. Unfortunately, unless they're incredibly accurate, they don't provide much chance for profit. IOW, there's always a trade-off between the percent wins and granularity of signals. For example, if you have a coin that's weighted 55% heads, but you get to toss it every day, it's only going to be a matter of months before there's a statistical (virtual) certainty of profit. Similarly, if you only toss every few years, but the coin is weighted 99% heads, it won't be too long before you're (practically) guaranteed a profit. Conversely, if the granularity is low and the accuracy is not outstanding, the results may be poor. E.g, the coin is weighted 55%, and you only get to toss it every few years. So...how do we get the accuracy of our signals way up (so that they're better than "a pretty good sense of")? Or, if we have to live with just "a pretty good sense of", how do we get the granularity of signals up? Of course you're right, we need to concentrate very hard on how to get our market-timing accuracy higher, but unless it's _exceptionally_ high we're going to have, on average, a heckuva lot of volatility in our accumulated equity. In an effort to get my market-timing granularity up, I'm considering the old idea of using a whole bunch of timing systems at once, feathering myself in and out of the market depending on how many are signalling a buy. Say you're following 10 signals (WON suggests some good research directions in Ch. 7, there's plenty of good ideas discussed here and ideas and signals are available elsewhere), and only 7 are showing a "buy." Howsabout going long with 70%, and staying 30% in cash? Any comments much appreciated. Regards, Paul - - ------------------------------ Date: Sat, 25 Apr 1998 01:48:47 -0500 From: Anthony Ku Subject: [CANSLIM] Datek Problems This is a cryptographically signed message in MIME format. - --------------ms9B997D38F0C24A6EB1434FD9 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=us-ascii Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit I also have problems with Datek. I bought a mutual fund and now selling it. I tried to sell a fractional amount (765.34 shares or something like that) and they end up selling 770 shares, so i am SHORT 4.66 shares now... I didn't know you can short mutual funds :) Yeah it does take them about 2-3 days to reply your emails. As far as trading through them is concerned, DO NOT USE MARKET ORDERS! They are SLOWER than a LIMIT order at the offer/bid. The reason is that if you sell at the bid with a LIMIT order, it gets routed automatically, otherwise, someone would have to figure out and entered in the system. it's stupid. 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While this is a CANSLIM list, I find your posts thought provoking and valuable (sometimes even humorous). I see merit (and potential profits) in the OBV/MF/EMA indicators you utilize. There is no definitive way I am aware of to sucessfully invest 100% of the time. I would submit that virtually all of us deviate from CANSLIM from time to time. Even my limited brainpower has room for considering more than one specific investment theory, and the TA you use has been useful to me for education and investment. Having said that, please know that I would like to see you remain active on this list as you continue to share your knowledge with others. I, for one, am grateful. Regards, Jay _____________________________________________________________________ You don't need to buy Internet access to use free Internet e-mail. Get completely free e-mail from Juno at http://www.juno.com Or call Juno at (800) 654-JUNO [654-5866] - - ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 24 Apr 1998 23:12:00 -1000 From: "frank swenson" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Datek Problems That's very interesting. I know I have traded a few times this close to the bell before with Datek and the trades executed. They were, however, all limit orders! This was the first time I tried a market order this close to the bell. Mistakenly I thought it would more likely execute as a market order. Thanks for the information Anthony. Frank - -----Original Message-----s From: Anthony Ku To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Date: Friday, April 24, 1998 8:56 PM Subject: [CANSLIM] Datek Problems >I also have problems with Datek. I bought a mutual fund and now selling >it. I tried to sell a fractional amount (765.34 shares or something >like that) and they end up selling 770 shares, so i am SHORT 4.66 shares >now... I didn't know you can short mutual funds :) > >Yeah it does take them about 2-3 days to reply your emails. As far as >trading through them is concerned, DO NOT USE MARKET ORDERS! They are >SLOWER than a LIMIT order at the offer/bid. The reason is that if you >sell at the bid with a LIMIT order, it gets routed automatically, >otherwise, someone would have to figure out and entered in the system. >it's stupid. But, that's the only way I have known to solve the market >order problem is to enter it at the bid or ask as a LIMIT order and that >will usually get filled. - - ------------------------------ Date: Sat, 25 Apr 1998 06:36:27 -0400 From: Connie Mack Rea Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Connie Mack - 454 grams Jay-- Thanks for the 454 grams of respect. That should be enough for several weeks--just in case I lose a few grams along the way. See that you're a bit of night owl, too. Connie Mack jmsmith@juno.com wrote: > That's a pound of respect from me, Connie. > > While this is a CANSLIM list, I find your posts thought provoking and > valuable (sometimes even humorous). I see merit (and potential > profits) > in the OBV/MF/EMA indicators you utilize. > > There is no definitive way I am aware of to sucessfully invest 100% of > > the time. I would submit that virtually all of us deviate from > CANSLIM > from time to time. > > Even my limited brainpower has room for considering more than one > specific investment theory, and the TA you use has been useful to me > for > education and investment. > > Having said that, please know that I would like to see you remain > active > on this list as you continue to share your knowledge with others. I, > for > one, am grateful. > > Regards, Jay > > _____________________________________________________________________ > You don't need to buy Internet access to use free Internet e-mail. > Get completely free e-mail from Juno at http://www.juno.com > Or call Juno at (800) 654-JUNO [654-5866] > > - - - ------------------------------ Date: Sat, 25 Apr 1998 07:26:58 -0400 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Intro Welcome to the group, Tony. I have made more mistakes from a lack of patience than from any other single cause. Likewise, I have missed far more "screaming buys" thru either inattention or lack of decisiveness than I have ever actually bot. Fortunately, there is always another train ready to leave the station. Tom W - -----Original Message----- From: Tony Austin To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Date: Friday, April 24, 1998 6:06 PM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Intro > >Greetings all. > >I am another new comer to the list. Just wanted to introduce myself. > >During my early studies, I read HTMMIS. I knew then, that this method had >a great deal of merit. But being Mr. Impatience, I thought I could do >better and faster. Who cares if you can, the stress isn't worth it. > >So, I have returned to what I knew was the desired course. But I must tell >you, I am having a real hard time with the patience it takes to trade the >CANSLIM way. I've already jumped into a couple that technically are >screaming "buy", even though the market is questionable. The patience will >come in time. > >Tony > >- > - - ------------------------------ Date: Sat, 25 Apr 1998 07:37:55 -0400 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Datek (was M) Hi Frank, First off, the main issue - did Datek screw up? Unequivocally, yes from your time frame. With 3 minutes to go to close, there should be no excuse for filling a mkt order, even on a non-liquid stock. It has nothing to do with covering a short or whether Datek "has the shares available". It's a mkt order, if they're not holding inventory they take it to the street. I would suggest you print the closing price and quote on LCOS for Friday. At least in theory, you should be in a win-win scenario. On Monday, if LCOS opens lower than Friday's close, you can cover for a better price. Should it open higher, you should (theoretically) be able to force Datek to honor Friday's closing price. Incidentally, one correction. You are not paying Datek margin interest for the weekend. Since you sold short, you have cash from the sale thus are gaining interest. You are also wise to have reported this problem immediately. However, should you decide to buy to cover on Monday, check your acct first and make sure they didn't already correct the error. So far, I'm not that impressed with Datek. They emailed me on Monday that they have sent the acct docs to sign. As of Friday's mail, I still hadn't received them. Tom W - -----Original Message----- From: frank swenson To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Date: Friday, April 24, 1998 7:27 PM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Datek (was M) >I had a problem with Datek today.The following is a copy of an email that I >sent them which outlines the problem I had. Also, Tom if a brokerage lets me >take a short position, don't they have to have shares available for me to >buy? > >"I have a serious complaint regarding your service. On Friday with 6 minutes >left until the market closed I attempted to place a market buy order to >cover a short position on LCOS. After repeated attempts to connect with >Datek you finally picked it up with 3 min left until close. >"Buying 500 shares of LCOS at Market. Tracking#: G-000-AACO-8990 04/24/98 >15:57:28 " >I assumed that on a hotly traded issue like LCOS (2.2 Million shares on >Friday), filling a market order would not be a problem. Later I noted that >the order was being "processed". After about 1 1/2 hours I checked the open >orders and noted that there were no orders pending. However I was dismayed >to find that I still had the short position in my portfolio, so I tried to >call Datek. After waiting on hold for 15 min I was disconnected by Datek, so >I redialed and waited again to talk to someone. I finally, did get through >to someone who said that he would have to research the issue. After another >5 min on hold he told me that the order was rejected, basically because no >one picked up the order. I was unhappy with his explanation so I asked to >talk to someone else. A person who identified himself as Chis got on the >phone. He told me that "Datek did its job". and its not their fault . So am >I to understand Datek cannot fill a market order on an issue that traded 2 >million plus shares that you acknowledge receiving 3 minutes before close? >AND you consider that as doing your job when you advertise the quickness of >your executions? In the meantime I have to carry an unwanted position over >the weekend, paying Datek margin interest with no guarantee that I can buy >to cover at the offer price I wanted. In my opinion, Datek overlooked my >order,and is trying to rationalize their mistake. I would therefore request >that you research this again and provide me with a written explanation ( e >mail is fine). I will then decide as to how I will proceed with my >complaint." > >-----Original Message----- >From: Tom Worley >To: canslim@lists.xmission.com >Date: Thursday, April 23, 1998 2:53 AM >Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Datek (was M) > > >>I too heard a lot about Datek's troubles last fall during the heavy...... >>-snipped- > > >- > - - ------------------------------ Date: Sat, 25 Apr 1998 07:53:28 -0400 From: "Frank V. Wolynski" Subject: [CANSLIM] Can't Look up a Company - Bug Report Bug Report to custserv@dailygraphs.com: I was researching Internet stocks this morning and found it impossible to do a name search for the company, N 2 K Inc. This group is a featured group in todays IBD section "Industry Snapshots". Who's Who in the group always lists the company names, but no symbols. I tried entering N alone and it was not in the list of available companies starting with the letter N. At one point I even tried the number 2, which caused the program to crash, which my only alternative was to terminate the program and restart. I finally had to use BigCharts which found my search of N2K immediately. Thank You, Frank Wolynski wolynski@mindspring.com - - ------------------------------ Date: Sat, 25 Apr 1998 14:18:05 +0200 From: Johan Van Houtven Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] M Head Jefry, You want a answer from David Ryan agian? ;^) OK, here it is: Until you really start seeing key averages like the Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq fall on a pick-up in volume, you have to just stay with this market," said David Ryan, senior vice president at William O'Neil + Co. Ryan, an accomplished stockpicker, has researched price and volume patterns of past market peaks. "I've studied other tops by looking at just the Dow and the Nasdaq and found you usually get at least a few days of the averages falling on rising volume," he said. "You just haven't had any of that yet," he observed. - --- end of quote --- Well, I'd rather be early than late. There we be enough trains leaving the station if the market takes of again. But from a strict CANSLIM standpoint it is not yet the time to be in 100% cash, unless your stocks have taken you out already. At 09:47 PM 24-04-98 -0400, you wrote: >Well, I spent so much time agonizing over this small stock histeria, and >blankly commented that I didn't see any distribution in the indices, >that I'm a bit embarrassed when I look at the SP, NYSE and NASDAQ >sitting here, but maybe fortunately near cash. > >Does anyone see Wednesday as a distribution day in all three of these >indices? Actually in the NYSE and SP Tuesday may be as well. Focusing >on these two indices (forgetting the Nasdaq for a moment), both Tuesday >and Wednesday showed higher daily volume than the prior "without >significant price progress", maybe? Nasdaq had a billion share day on >Wednesday, but was less than 1% really that "significant" a price >improvement with the at about the middle of the day's range, albeit >marginally the high end? > >Well, if those were "distribution days", then the charts for Thursday >and Friday's action take on the look of a couple more days down, and >then a "failed rally attempt" watch (third time since early March). >With sentiment so high, and the dogs barking, but now getting crushed, >leaders failing (PAYX, WFMI, IMRS, net stocks, and others that we've >watched lead the charge since Jan.), maybe it's time to pay closer >attention to the basics. > >Does anyone see it that way, or am I decieving myself that my head has >cleared a bit? Right now, I can't get access to high, low and close >prices. But these day's are not the "reversal" type distribution that >is pretty common after a 1% on volume day like we had recently. These >are more "compression" like, which is what lead to the early October 97 >correction later in the month. I'll study it more closely over the >weekend. > >Any thoughts??? > >Jeffry > >- > > Johan Van Houtven CLICK! N.V. / Wilrijk, Belgium - - ------------------------------ Date: Sat, 25 Apr 1998 08:58:30 -0400 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] M Head To add my contribution to the continuing discussion of "M", I took a look at the market indicator charts for NASDAQ and NYSE this AM. Neither look encouraging, and one thing I did note was on the NYSE charts. Over the past three weeks, the 10 day MA of up vol to down vol has merged three different times. Over this same time frame, the overbot/oversold trend line has continued to decline, as has also the new highs/lows line. Nonetheless, the Dow 30 has continued to rise. The NASDAQ chart doesn't show quite the same pattern, however I did note that one of the sharpest divergences I have seen on the 10 day MA of up/down vol has now sharply reversed. I also note that altho the up vol reached the same level as seen in late Jan, the overbot line did not reach as high a level. I'm not sure what all this means, other than the mkts are unsettled. Keep in mind that there are two basic conditions for "M" - Bull and Bear. Within these, you can have a rally or a correction ongoing. Unequivocally, I believe we remain solidly in a bull mkt. We are seeing some short term fears as many mkt participants suddenly (well, duh!!) realize that the next action by the Feds is likely a rate hike, not a cut, and are fearful this could happen at the May FOMC meeting (I don't think it will happen that soon). We are also seeing the Japanese economic stimulus efforts disrupting the various mkts, including bonds and currency. Yet the Japanese govt still doesn't get it, economic stimulus doesn't come from selling dollars to support the yen any more than it does with the latest proposal to pump money into the purchase of stocks on the domestic exchange. It comes from true economic change, dropping trade barriers, increasing domestic consumption, improving technology and productivity, etc. The rise in the dollar/yen ratio on Friday after the details of the latest proposal was released, as well as the comments by a Japanese minister, at least show an awareness of the likelihood of bankruptcy from further efforts to intervene on the side of the yen. Should the Feds hike the rate, it is likely to ultimately be good for new bonds, as well as strengthening the dollar, but I don't expect this action until and unless either inflation rears its ugly head in a big way, or economic growth jumps considerably over the present. With a higher rate, more foreign money will flow into both bonds and dollars for both safety and yield. Given enough time, the Asian economy can recover without Japan, however correct actions by Japan can speed up this process. They are a major factor in this equation. Meanwhile, the US economy is continuing to chug along, with Europe now moving more quickly towards resolving the final issues on a common market. Lack of correct and aggressive action by Japan leaves them in the difficult position of eventually becoming a second or third rate economy. You can complicate your evaluation of "M" in many ways, but keep in mind the first question to answer is whether we are in a bull or bear mkt. Then ask yourself if, in a continuing (aging) bull, are we in a correction mode? If you think we are now in a bear mkt, ask yourself if we are due for a rally within that? Personally, I see us still solidly in a bull mkt. Remember, a switch between bull and bear doesn't happen frequently. I would agree that the mkt is set up well for a mild correction, altho all the fresh money still flowing in from 401s and funds will likely soften any correction, along with the continuing record short positions. Tom W - -----Original Message----- From: Johan Van Houtven To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Date: Saturday, April 25, 1998 8:14 AM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] M Head >Jefry, > >You want a answer from David Ryan agian? ;^) > >OK, here it is: > >Until you really start seeing key averages like the Dow, >S&P 500 and Nasdaq fall on a pick-up in volume, you >have to just stay with this market," said David Ryan, >senior vice president at William O'Neil + Co. > - - ------------------------------ Date: Sat, 25 Apr 1998 08:08:09 -0500 From: Dave Cameron Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Re: Charting software--WOWS Db, Could you please re-post the web site for this? Thanks. Dave Cameron dfcameron@ameritech.net - ----------- dbphoenix wrote: > > Before plopping down $2.50 a day for TC2000, at least consider the > WOWS program. Not only can you scan for technical criteria but for > fundamental criteria (as supplied by Market Guide) as well. The > download costs $35 a month, which you can make back in approximately 5 > minutes. > > --Db > > _________________________________________________________ > DO YOU YAHOO!? > Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com > > - - - ------------------------------ Date: Sat, 25 Apr 1998 08:11:30 -0500 From: Dave Cameron Subject: [CANSLIM] Breakouts (was MDC) John Nogueira (mssm2000) wrote: > > Lots of us have been announcing breakouts lately in their posts - which I > definitely think is a great thing. But I would like to see members > describing these breakouts and the patterns they are coming off of. For > instance, I think it means more to say that "XYZ has broken out of a 7- > week TIGHT BASE on 5X ADV today" than to say that "XYZ broke out today on > huge volume." Furthermore, lots of times that I check the charts of > "announced" breakouts - I do see a day with a price increase on large > volume - but I don't see a recognizable chart formation to go along with > it. I think that if we take the time to describe the breakouts we are > announcing in our posts, we might find flaws or even postive > characteristics in the charts. > I think this is a perfectly reasonable idea. The more detail we can give the better, as long as it is NOT so much that it stops us from posting. There was a member who recommended a "form" for filling out which was a buy sheet of sorts. It gave enough information that one didn't really need to look up the stock. Of course, most posters wouldn't take the time to fill it out. But, I do like the statement, "XYZ has broken out of a 7-week TIGHT BASE on 5X ADV today". Dave Cameron > John F. Nogueira, Jr. > > - - - ------------------------------ Date: Sat, 25 Apr 1998 08:20:05 -0500 From: Dave Cameron Subject: [CANSLIM] Cash Position (was M Today) Johan Van Houtven wrote: > > I love these days... especially when I'm 100% cash and can daytrade big > then. > I've heard a LOT of posters say they've been heavily in cash. Many of which have been saying it for the last 3+ weeks. I am confused as to how you can be so proud of it. This week was basically flat, but nearly every week for the last 3 months have been up weeks. If you've been 100% in cash, you've been missing some decent gains! I respect many others' views on the market - but I still don't see a reason to convert to cash. If I had done so when several started spouting this mantra 3+ weeks ago, I'd be 5% poorer right now. Of course there's nothing to say I won't lose that in the next 2 days, but just have to give an opinion contrary to many posters on this issue. I wouldn't want the entire member population to get the impression we are all in agreement on this. Dave Cameron - - ------------------------------ Date: Sat, 25 Apr 1998 15:33:17 +0200 From: Johan Van Houtven Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Breakouts (was MDC) Dave wrote: >But, I do like the statement, >"XYZ has broken out of a 7-week TIGHT BASE on 5X ADV today". I agree with the description, but what good is it to know that XYX has broke out? I personally am not interested in XYZ if it has already broken out. Because often it is alrady to extended from the pivot pint (BP=break point). The only chance you have to get into that stock is on on pullback, if there is any reasonable pullback at all that is. I would much rather have members post their watchlist a la: XYZ has a cup with 5 week handle. BP is xy a/b. I loved Peter's watchlist that he posted a while ago. Top class list IMHO. Johan Van Houtven CLICK! N.V. / Wilrijk, Belgium - - ------------------------------ Date: Sat, 25 Apr 1998 08:32:13 -0500 From: Dave Cameron Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] M Head It seems like I'm picking on Johan here, when so many are saying "be cautious". I have no problem with being cautious. But there is no way I could be 100% cash now. In fact, I remain 100% invested. Why? Well... this one supports my viewpoint. I could certainly be wrong, but read on... Johan Van Houtven wrote: > > Jefry, > > You want a answer from David Ryan agian? ;^) > > Until you really start seeing key averages like the Dow, > S&P 500 and Nasdaq fall on a pick-up in volume, you > have to just stay with this market," said David Ryan, > senior vice president at William O'Neil + Co. > > Ryan, an accomplished stockpicker, has researched > price and volume patterns of past market peaks. "I've > studied other tops by looking at just the Dow and the > Nasdaq and found you usually get at least a few days of > the averages falling on rising volume," he said. > > "You just haven't had any of that yet," he observed. Exactly my point - and this is why I am still in. > > > Well, I'd rather be early than late. There we be enough trains leaving the > station if the market takes of again. But from a strict CANSLIM standpoint > it is not yet the time to be in 100% cash, unless your stocks have taken > you out already. > Maybe... and I'm not saying it won't happen on Monday, but I can dig up message where people (not you though) have been saying this for almost a month - so it could end tomorrow, it could continue for another month. Each of us needs to do what we are comfortable with. I am comfortable staying 100% invested until either my stops are taken out - or I start seeing down days with a volume in the range of Wednesday's. But that's just my take (although its heartening to know that Ryan agrees!). - - ------------------------------ Date: Sat, 25 Apr 1998 15:42:47 +0200 From: Johan Van Houtven Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Cash Position (was M Today) At 08:20 AM 25-04-98 -0500, you wrote: >Johan Van Houtven wrote: >> >> I love these days... especially when I'm 100% cash and can daytrade big >> then. >> > >I've heard a LOT of posters say they've been heavily in cash. Many of >which have been saying it for the last 3+ weeks. I am confused as to >how you can be so proud of it. This week was basically flat, but nearly >every week for the last 3 months have been up weeks. If you've been 100% >in cash, you've been missing some decent gains! Dave I have been in cash approx 3 weeks ago. That last exactly 1 day. As O'Niel once wrote: Bend like a reed in the wind. I'm now in cash since last thursday. The stocks I sold are significantly lower now. Look at HDWY, DELL and IONAY. So I'm not complaining. Also take note that I went to cash as I was looking for the best time to get out as I will be going on vacation next Friday. From as strict CANSLIM 'M' standpoint you should still be invested! Maybe not 100% though. >I respect many others' views on the market - but I still don't see a >reason to convert to cash. If I had done so when several started spouting >this mantra 3+ weeks ago, I'd be 5% poorer right now. Agreed. Made good money the last 3 weeks. Relative to the markets my perfromance was not so good: Now that I'm in cash I can give the correct %: 16% since 1st of Jan. > Of course there's >nothing to say I won't lose that in the next 2 days, but just have to >give an opinion contrary to many posters on this issue. I wouldn't >want the entire member population to get the impression we are all in >agreement on this. I would think most of the members are still significantly invested. I did not get any other impression. Johan Van Houtven CLICK! N.V. / Wilrijk, Belgium - - ------------------------------ Date: Sat, 25 Apr 1998 10:09:41 EDT From: DCSquires Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] M Head In a message dated 98-04-24 21:49:18 EDT, you write: << Well, I spent so much time agonizing over this small stock histeria, and blankly commented that I didn't see any distribution in the indices, that I'm a bit embarrassed when I look at the SP, NYSE and NASDAQ sitting here, but maybe fortunately near cash. >> I'm with you all the way here. The NYSE definetely had some distribution last week and the 3 month up trendlines have been broken for the Russ, Nas, and S&P. I was happy to see the Nas. cross back over this line on Wed. with good volume, but it still found resistence there falling back through it the next moring. Also, the decline the past few days has been extremely broad hitting all indices. It was interesting that Wednesday's big volume was basically split, so I agreed on your distribution theory. I am still cautious on the end of the move though, as people got worried real quick when this decline started, as Tom mentioned. Also the new high in price with a new high in volume seems to suggest at least a retest in my mind. Of course, many other indicators (RSI, MO, MACD histogram,MACD) have not confirmed last weeks news highs. All in all I am getting a very mixed picture. Either way, a failed rally seems to be the thing to watch for. DSquires - - ------------------------------ Date: Sat, 25 Apr 1998 16:14:59 +0200 From: Johan Van Houtven Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] M Head Dave wrote: >It seems like I'm picking on Johan here, No problem Dave. In fact I'd much rather read your intelligent reply as to why you do not agree (even though we basicly DO agree) than a simple "I agree with you Johan" post. I think that if you read all my previous posts that I posted this week about 'M' again, you'll see that I did note why 'I' was selling. That is was NOT (strictly) CANSLIM based. Besides I noted that there are two reasons to sell: 1) your stocks telling you to sell, 2) the 'M' factor telling you to sell a portion. My stocks were saying: this is a good time to sell (from a very short term trading standpoint). They hit or were very near my 10 day intraday-day chart sell lines. 'M' also said sell to me that day (again from a VERY short term perspective). Very high vol on NASDAQ (I only had NASDAQ stocks), with little upwards movement rel to that volume. Lots of leaders looking weakly. Absolute high bullish sentiment. Etc. All from the perspective of going on vacation next week and looking for a reason to sell! (Put that in BOLD and font size 35. B^) Also note that I have not had the stomach to hold any stock for months! I'm very short to short term. Holding longer is something I'll have to and want to learn! When I go on vacation next week and can't watch my 'babies' I'd rather sell. That is not advice for CANSLIM investors that hold for months. It is because of the way I trade currently. Why didn't I place stop losses? I just thought that the chances of my stocks not touching these stop losses in the next 3 weeks were way to small to risk that. If we were in Febr. now, I would most probably have set stop losses. I remember doing this last year when I went on vacation. I was delighted when I came back. >when so many are saying "be cautious". >I have no problem with being cautious. But there is no way I could be 100% >cash now. In fact, I remain 100% invested. Why? Well... this one supports >my viewpoint. I could certainly be wrong, but read on... I'll bet that you have been doing much better than my, because you seemingly have the stomach/discipline to hold. So Dave your critisism or whatever you want to call it is always welcome! If it can help me better my performance I would be a fool not to welcome it and learn from it. We'll see how the stocks I had have done when I come back. I would not be surprised that DELL would be higher as as high again. If I were staying home I would buy DELL back at some point near it's previous base or trendline support. IONAY. I could go horizontal from here or go down with IMRS, SAPE, PSFT as it is 'somewhat' related to that same group. HDWY. Well considering the amount I had I'm already very happy that I sold. That was also the one that twent through my sell point (sell line on the chart). Now that I'm mentioning stocks: The last 3 remaining days next week I'll be watching MERQ, FFGI and maybe daytrade AVTC and PFE. Thanks for your reply. Johan Van Houtven CLICK! N.V. / Wilrijk, Belgium - - ------------------------------ End of canslim-digest V2 #210 ***************************** To unsubscribe to canslim-digest, send an email to "majordomo@xmission.com" with "unsubscribe canslim-digest" in the body of the message. For information on digests or retrieving files and old messages send "help" to the same address. 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