From: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com (canslim-digest) To: canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Subject: canslim-digest V2 #212 Reply-To: canslim Sender: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Errors-To: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Precedence: bulk X-No-Archive: yes canslim-digest Sunday, April 26 1998 Volume 02 : Number 212 In this issue: Re: [CANSLIM] Cash Position (was M Today) Re: [CANSLIM] My watch list for this week [CANSLIM] RE: Can't Look up a Company - Bug Report [CANSLIM] Candleseticks [CANSLIM] BOBJY [CANSLIM] M & Head, again (sorry) [CANSLIM] M & Head Re: [CANSLIM] M & Head Re: [CANSLIM] BOBJY Re: [CANSLIM] R2000 on DGO (was M Head) [CANSLIM] DGO [CANSLIM] Internet Stocks [CANSLIM] BOBJY Re: [CANSLIM] BOBJY Re: [CANSLIM] BOBJY [CANSLIM] Reversing Niagara: Buy Viagra Re: [CANSLIM] Cash Position (was M Today) Re: [CANSLIM] OBV/MF Stocks ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Date: Sat, 25 Apr 1998 21:04:17 GMT From: musicant@autobahn.org (Dan Musicant) Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Cash Position (was M Today) On Sat, 25 Apr 1998 08:20:05 -0500, you wrote: :Johan Van Houtven wrote: :>=20 :> I love these days... especially when I'm 100% cash and can daytrade = big :> then.=20 :> : :I've heard a LOT of posters say they've been heavily in cash. Many of :which have been saying it for the last 3+ weeks. I am confused as to :how you can be so proud of it. This week was basically flat, but = nearly :every week for the last 3 months have been up weeks. If you've been = 100% :in cash, you've been missing some decent gains! : :I respect many others' views on the market - but I still don't see a :reason to convert to cash. If I had done so when several started = spouting :this mantra 3+ weeks ago, I'd be 5% poorer right now. Of course = there's :nothing to say I won't lose that in the next 2 days, but just have to :give an opinion contrary to many posters on this issue. I wouldn't :want the entire member population to get the impression we are all in :agreement on this. : :Dave Cameron Glad to hear you're faring well, Dave. Monday was a good day for me and I have been doing pretty well lately. However, I hadn't made a trade in almost two months and I looked over Peter Christiansen's list and liked a lot of what I saw. Still, I couldn't bring myself to sell any of my 3 stocks, and I was pretty much margined to the hilt. I took some loss on Tuesday, and on Wednesday I looked at my stocks and had to admit that they didn't look like they were doing anything. I just went to 100% cash in a moment of decision. Glad I did, because Thursday I would have lost about 25% of my profits for the year. Wednesday and Friday were also losses, though more modest.=20 Until I feel general market conditions have improved or have a very good feeling about a stock's prospects (whether I'm thinking long or short), I am glad to be in cash. Dan - - ------------------------------ Date: Sat, 25 Apr 1998 17:10:09 -0400 From: "Tony Austin" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] My watch list for this week Given that I am new to this list and trading with CANSLIM, I welcome your comments on the following. Long Plays LEVL - Level One Communications. Formed a cup and handle pattern between Nov. 97 and April 98. Broke to the upside and through upper resistance on 4/20. Has remained in a tight range since that time currently at 31 1/4. Given current market pressure, a tight range could be a bullish sign. Consider and entry if 33 1/8 is seen. (Qtr earnings increases -1st qtr back: 975,2nd:41.5,3rd:18.5,4th:0. PE - 35.) TWR - Tower Automotive. Formed a cup and handle pattern between October and mid April. Broke soundly positive on 4/16 and has consolidated downward on declining volume since. An entry anywhere below 51 would satisfy the "within 5%" entry parameter. The recent market may allow a late entry here. Enter on a retraction near 49 or on a break above 51 3/4 to be safe, albeit a bit high. (1st:68.5, 2nd:54.5,3rd:39,4th:37, PE-19) ESL - Esterline Technology Cp. Formed a cup and handle starting mid October through a failed breakout attempt on 4/2. Corrected down to support at 20. Successfully broke through upper resistance to 22 on 4/22 and has retracted the following 2 days to 20 3/8. The past 2 days may be market driven rather than stock weakness. The bold could attempt an early entry near 20 3/8, another break above 22 would be a very bullish sign. (1st qtr back: 28, 2nd: 16.5, 3rd:37, 4th:0, PE - 13.7) CTAL - Catalytica Inc. - Following eight months of consolidation in the 13 to 10 range, it broke soundly upward with supporting volume the first week of April to a high of 17 5/8. Following this 40% run up it corrected downward on decreasing volume. It was taking a noticeably positive turn confirmed with consecutive higher lows and increasing volume. This turn was short lived as it retraced it's steps downward, with what may be a result of the past two trading days. Watch for continuing heavy volume and a break above 16 1/4 for a safe entry. (I have no earnings data, but stock is on canslim.net list) Short Plays WLP - Wellpoint Health Network. Go short if prices above 72 are seen. Initial stop at 75.5, initial target at 67. SRA - Stratus Computer Inc. Go short if numbers above 45 1/2 are seen. Initial stop at 47 3/4, target at 31. PSQL - Platinum Software CP. Go short if numbers above 24 are seen. Initial stop at 25 3/8, initial target 20. SPY - Standard & Poors Dep Rec. - short if 112 1/2 in obtained. Stop at 118, target 100. - - ------------------------------ Date: Sat, 25 Apr 1998 19:22:01 -0400 From: "Frank V. Wolynski" Subject: [CANSLIM] RE: Can't Look up a Company - Bug Report You were absolutely right! It must be a feature that when typing the single letter 'n' with no space following, that only names with a space after the 'n' are listed. I assumed that simply typing the first letter of a name would bring up all the names that start with that letter. It brings up only names that have the letter followed by a space. Except of course when that letter is A. Then it brings up A A O N Inc (through) A R M Holdings Plc Ads, then jumps to Long Island Lighting Co. followed by others in the 'L' list. I haven't checked out the rest of the alphabet, but I'll get the hang of it. After playing with it a bit already, I am getting better at searching. Thank you, Frank Wolynski At 15:02 4/25/98 -0700, Customer Service wrote: >There is No bug! Simply go to F3 (tools) and enter the name of the company >as n 2 k. make sure to leave a space. This is the way the company has its >name. You will discover that the its symbol is ntki. > >Thank you, >Daily Graphs Online > > >-----Original Message----- >From: Frank V. Wolynski [SMTP:Wolynski@MindSpring.Com] >Sent: Saturday, April 25, 1998 4:53 AM >To: custserv@dailygraphs.com >Cc: canslim@mail.xmission.com >Subject: Can't Look up a Company - Bug Report > >Bug Report to custserv@dailygraphs.com: > >I was researching Internet stocks this morning and found it impossible to >do a name search for the company, N 2 K Inc. This group is a featured group >in todays IBD section "Industry Snapshots". Who's Who in the group always >lists the company names, but no symbols. > >I tried entering N alone and it was not in the list of available companies >starting with the letter N. At one point I even tried the number 2, which >caused the program to crash, which my only alternative was to terminate the >program and restart. > >I finally had to use BigCharts which found my search of N2K immediately. > >Thank You, > >Frank Wolynski >wolynski@mindspring.com > > - - ------------------------------ Date: Sat, 25 Apr 1998 21:10:40 -0400 From: Connie Mack Rea Subject: [CANSLIM] Candleseticks Members-- Some have asked me about candlestick charting. In my notes I've found these sites. I'd guess that any of the search engines would bring up some items if you just entered "Japanese candlesticks" or just perhaps "Candlesticks." http://portalinc.com/~ace/candlestks.htm http://brkthru.com/trading/introduc.htm http://windowofopportunity.com/candle.html [demo for downloading; four minutes] A couple of extraneous points. [1] In BigCharts, which uses frames, you can increase the font by clicking View/Increase Fonts. You will need to click each frame first and then click View to act upon that frame. [2] I've had trouble occasionally with printing out BC charts. There at least two ways of printing the charts. [A] Print from the chart screen by clicking on Print at the top of the screen; or [B] print by clicking on Print Chart at the bottom of the page. Slightly different information about the stock is given with each printing. Too, you can print from the File menu, where you can also see a Print Prevue. The Print Prevue is useful when you have several pages to print but don't want to print them all. It would be useful if we could print three or four of the BC's bottom indicators on a single page. I once knew how to do this but have forgotten. Connie Mack - - ------------------------------ Date: Sat, 25 Apr 1998 20:04:22 -0500 From: Michael Doroshenko Subject: [CANSLIM] BOBJY Can someone comment about Business Objects (BOBJY) fundamentals and tell me if it is already too extended? Thank you Mike - - ------------------------------ Date: Sat, 25 Apr 1998 22:31:37 -0400 From: Jeffry White <"postwhit@sover.net"@sover.net> Subject: [CANSLIM] M & Head, again (sorry) Paul, you wrote: > I don't understand your point. You're saying that people have > computerized, objective signals for market timing? Yes, some folks I know have computerized the CANSLIM "M" and trade index futures from its' signals on a purely objective basis. The system is currently holding a three lot nyfe long positions without being stopped out since the "follow through days" in late January. > And sure, I'd like a take a look at the info you have in mind. If you know > of a way to do it successfully, than what are we debating? Why don't we > just follow the signals that those futures traders are following? > Largely, I do follow those signals to find intermediate term bottoms and tops which may lead to significant downside moves. They are pretty much identical to the CANSLIM "M" price and volume indicators in HTMMIS, so there is no real variance there. Problem is that an index does not hold the myriad of vagaries of analyst upgrades, downgrades, earnings surprises, warnings and all the trappings and difficulties you apparently have in mind. I use the computrized signals mainly as confirmation of my own "manual" effort to follow the trend, determine when to get off margin or go to full margin power, pull stops up, go part way or all the way to cash. > And if we can semi-accurately call "M", then why would any of us bother > with CANSLIM? IOW, a stock-picking game that's dependent on knowing "M" is > somewhat paradoxical, since if you know "M" you don't need to bother > picking stocks. And picking stocks would be a poor proxy for > market-timing, because if you knew "M", you could invest in high-beta "M" > proxies with absolute certainty of making large profits. Whereas, playing > CANSLIM stocks in an up market is a poor investment. It's too much of a > gamble. Some will go up. Some will go down. I like trading stocks within the CANSLIM discipline. What fun is it to plug in a computer and just watch teh profits accumulate? I'm largely serious with that comment, I love the challenge of this discipline as well as anything I've ever done. I enjoy the profits from a mechanical system, as well, don't get me wrong. Kind of like comparing a painstakingly prepared meal with a fine wine and good company vs. a feeding tube, don't you think? New leadership stocks breaking from appropriate bases on follow through action from an intermediate to long term bottoming formation in the indices, coupled with other appropriate indicators like excessive bearishness, etc., hold a much higher probability of making sustained moves than just any old stock blowing favorably in the breeze of a strong, uptrending "M", as your comment would suggest. Cash index/market proxies? I would match my returns in this first quarter (or all of last year, for that matter) with leadership stocks of a true CANSLIM type from the bottoming action that we saw in January against any cash proxy for the "M". Show me a proxy, like the SPY or MDY, I suppose, that offered a 50% plus Q1 and I'd be interested. Can't compete with the leverage of an index futures contract, true. But a portion of my portfolio plays that side, and incurs the additiontal attendant risk. CANSLIM discipline, when one is disciplined enough to catch the "M" right, with properly entered emergent new leadership stocks, is as close as one gets to playing the "M" straight, albeit with less than the leverage of the futures market, as far as my experience shows. Playing CANSLIM stocks, if done with respect for the rules and with experience, from an appropriate turning point in the "M" is the antithesis of "a poor investment", as you call it. But trying to scratch out profits in an intermediate term move which has gone on for a quarter, with no clear leadership stocks breaking from good, solid bases, may be something more than a "poor investment." I think that is the point I've been trying to make since we first starting seeing clear distribution signals in the indices in early March has been a word of caution. The easy profits in this move are no longer much better than a "poor investment" and it *may* be a "gamble", at this point. I see nothing that MOVES me to want to try and enter, at this point, except a few shorts. I think only that sell discipline is in order, and that is an individualized practice which many do differently. Dave Cameron practices a sell discipline that I am envious of, but don't have the psychological make-up (yet) to practice. Others, like me, gradually move off margin and to varying degrees of cash positioning. I've told no one to sell and move to cash, I'd never be so presumptuous to beleive that all share my risk tolerance level, wherever it may lie in the spectrum. > So, help me out on this. Is the idea that CANSLIM is a hedge? That it's > great in a bull market, and it's not so bad in a bear market? I have no idea what you are talking about here, except to suspect that you may not have read HTMMIS as thoroughly as you might suspect. > Is this your opinion or WON's? I have studied Ch. 7 and find it to be the > most confusing and sketchy of all of WON's writing. "If you miss the S&P > or Dow Jones topping signals, which is exceedingly easy to do since they > occur on only one or two days, you will be wrong on the direction of the > market and wrong on almost everything you do." [Gulp!] Evidently, you need to study the indices more open mindedly. Sounds like you want someone to prove that the price and volume signals actually exist and work, repeatedly, rather than do the necessary work to verify the signals on your own. Certainly not suggesting that I'm anywhere near mastering such an effort, but in the past 18 months, I've avoided the most recent two ugly corrections beginning in January 1997, entering leadership stocks in late April of that year, and doing the same again in mid-October and entering (a little early, I admit, but fortunately gradually) to take pretty thourough advantage of the move that began in late January. I'm persuaded, and if you're not, I'm sorry to hear it? > FWIW, a well-known associate of WON's agreed with me about this. And how > could they not? If we knew "M", we'd be wealthy. Do you know what WON has > said in response to this type of criticism? I don't, and I'd sure like to > hear from others who do. He's a very smart guy, so I have no doubt that he > has made an interesting response. What can I say? Don't know what WON says except the same message, over and over again about price and volume signals that scream off the pages of both HTMMIS and the index charts if you follow the gospel and study them "every day". > We're not ignoring you. Really, we're not. We love you. :-) Careful, now. Dave Cameron is wathcing!! Right, Dave. ;) > Let's get back to making money, shall we? Let me clarify what I see as the > major rub with "M", Jeffry. Let's say you've decided on your favorite > market-timing signal (or combination of indicators to produce a signal). > We know from Ch. 7 that the signals shouldn't come very often. > Unfortunately, unless they're incredibly accurate, they don't provide much > chance for profit. IOW, there's always a trade-off between the percent > wins and granularity of signals. The Chapter 7 signals come when they come, and when they come they offer significant "chance for profit" and to protect captial. Sorry that's not been your experience. > For example, if you have a coin that's weighted 55% heads, but you get to > toss it every day, it's only going to be a matter of months before there's > a statistical (virtual) certainty of profit. Similarly, if you only toss > every few years, but the coin is weighted 99% heads, it won't be too long > before you're (practically) guaranteed a profit. > > Conversely, if the granularity is low and the accuracy is not outstanding, > the results may be poor. E.g, the coin is weighted 55%, and you only get > to toss it every few years. > > So...how do we get the accuracy of our signals way up (so that they're > better than "a pretty good sense of")? Or, if we have to live with just > "a pretty good sense of", how do we get the granularity of signals up? > > Of course you're right, we need to concentrate very hard on how to get our > market-timing accuracy higher, but unless it's _exceptionally_ high we're > going to have, on average, a heckuva lot of volatility in our accumulated > equity. The only part of this train of thought I follow is the last two paragraph, I think. And, I disagree with their premise. I don't agree that there these timing indicators provide a "pretty good sense of" the market direction/trend over the intermediate term and longer term. Over the shorter term, depending upon your sell strategy in the face of *potential* bottoming of topping activity in the indices, I find the Chapter 7 market timing indicators based upon price and volume signals, coupled with Sentiment indicators to provide a high degree of accuracy which actually reduces volatility in my accumulated equity. What I've been struggling with of late is the whipsaw of the short term over the last month, which now has me more cautious than ever. Although I might be wrong over the short term, I'll have a better than "pretty good sense" for my own purposes. > In an effort to get my market-timing granularity up, I'm considering the > old idea of using a whole bunch of timing systems at once, feathering > myself in and out of the market depending on how many are signalling a buy. > Say you're following 10 signals (WON suggests some good research > directions in Ch. 7, there's plenty of good ideas discussed here and ideas > and signals are available elsewhere), and only 7 are showing a "buy." > Howsabout going long with 70%, and staying 30% in cash? > Not inclined toward this method. Sounds like too much stuff to fit in my simplistic mind. ;-) Good luck, Jeffry - - ------------------------------ Date: Sat, 25 Apr 1998 22:32:28 -0400 From: Jeffry White <"postwhit@sover.net"@sover.net> Subject: [CANSLIM] M & Head Dave, you wrote: > Each of us needs to do what we are comfortable with. I am comfortable > staying 100% invested until either my stops are taken out - or I start > seeing down days with a volume in the range of Wednesday's. But that's > just my take (although its heartening to know that Ryan agrees!). > Precisely. Your sell strategy has a lot more discipline than mine. Wish I could play it that way, just can't. I'm envious that you can maintain the discipline with stop placement, and I hope it continues to work for you. Even in light of Ryan's comment, with which I agree, don't over look the suddeness with which "failed rally attempts" from these seemingly *mini-corrections* can occur. October last was a classic, in my opinion. I was out, you were watching stops get hit. We both went to cash. That's the point, I just enjoy the "M" *watch* a bit more, I suppose, and prefer being out before the sh*t hits the fan, if possible. How'm I doing? ;) Jeffry - - ------------------------------ Date: Sun, 26 Apr 1998 00:15:01 EDT From: DCSquires Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] M & Head In a message dated 98-04-25 22:34:16 EDT, you write: << Even in light of Ryan's comment, with which I agree, don't over look the suddeness with which "failed rally attempts" from these seemingly *mini-corrections* can occur. >> I don't mean to be cynical here but every well know speculater in print has thier own agenda. How do we know Ryan isn't just calming the CS ranks so that their institutional cliets can sell the rally. (I have always notice many conficts of interest in WON's "empire")Then he can say next week that those days were the "heavy volume" days to the downside that he wanted to see. We all must make our own decisions. If WON was in print tommorow saying this rally is still intact it wouldn't change a thing I do because he told me opinions don't matter.....only the market verdict does. DSquires - - ------------------------------ Date: Sat, 25 Apr 1998 21:30:43 -0500 From: Joe Scott Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] BOBJY This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------=_NextPart_000_000B_01BD7091.66EE3D20 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Hi Mike, Looks ok at a quick glance for me, although I don't like PE's higher = than 2Xsp, but I can't say that would stop me.=20 It took one big jump on Friday with plenty of volume, its up from a = base, which I would call 15.00 over 20%. So if you could buy it at 18.37 = (Fridays close) and it fell back to support at even at best 16.50, you = would still be down over 15%. So to answer your question, for me yes way to far extended, some will = say pick it up if it pulls back a bit. I don't like buying a stock that = has pulled back after a jump like that.=20 So this would be one that I would miss, and I'd be off looking for = another. don't know a thing joe joe@2fords.net http://www.2fords.net/joe/ - ------=_NextPart_000_000B_01BD7091.66EE3D20 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
Hi Mike,
Looks ok at a quick glance for me, although I = don't=20 like PE's higher than 2Xsp, but I can't say that would stop me. =
It took one big jump on Friday with plenty of = volume,=20 its up from a base, which I would call 15.00 over 20%. So if you could = buy it at=20 18.37 (Fridays close) and it fell back to support at even at best 16.50, = you=20 would still be down over 15%.
So to answer your question, for me yes way to = far=20 extended, some will say pick it up if it pulls back a bit. I don't like = buying a=20 stock that has pulled back after a jump like that.
So this would be one that I would = miss, and I'd=20 be off looking for another.
 
don't know a thing
joe
 
joe@2fords.net
http://www.2fords.net/joe/<= /DIV>
 
- ------=_NextPart_000_000B_01BD7091.66EE3D20-- - - ------------------------------ Date: Sun, 26 Apr 1998 07:11:54 -0400 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] R2000 on DGO (was M Head) Yes, Johan, DGO was showing the Russell 2000 for awhile, but the vendor sending them their data feed dropped it for some reason. In a subsequent software version, DGO dropped the chart from the drop down menu as it wouldn't work. That was their "fix"! Tom W - -----Original Message----- From: Johan Van Houtven To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Date: Saturday, April 25, 1998 10:29 AM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] M Head To bad DG >Online removed the Russell chart. (I'd swear they had it in there a while >ago. Maybe I'm wrong.) > - - ------------------------------ Date: Sun, 26 Apr 1998 08:22:32 -0400 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] DGO This weekend I downloaded the latest (reportedly the final) version of DailyGraphs Online, then took some time to browse the Tricks and the FAQ reports, since I had not done this in some time. I had recently noticed that it seemed the EPS was being updated on a daily basis, even tho the actual qtrly report wasn't being added except on the weekly update to the "fundamentals" section. Under the FAQ, I found a new item I hadn't seen before, which lists the schedule for updating all the information and reports. Noted one interesting aspect, seven of the index charts are being updated every 15 minutes. Tom W - - ------------------------------ Date: Sun, 26 Apr 1998 07:58:51 -0500 From: Joan Sherman Subject: [CANSLIM] Internet Stocks Someone mentioned that DG did not list several internet stocks. Interesting to me was that in this past weeks IBD a search engine was featured and in Monday's issue you will find several internet stocks listed in their industry feature page. Is this a curious occurrence? Joan Sherman /\~~~/\ /\~~~/\ /\~~~/\ /\~/\ /\~/\ and the gang ** ** ** ** ** Support Animal Rescue - - ------------------------------ Date: Sun, 26 Apr 1998 09:13:45 -0400 From: Connie Mack Rea Subject: [CANSLIM] BOBJY Members-- Joe and Mike mentioned BOBJY in their posts. Can I presume that it is a Canslim candidate? If so . . . then: Look at BOBJY on BigCharts. There is a nice positive divergence from about the 3rd of April to the present. OBV/MF held flat while the stock went from 15.5 to 13. Then you had three days after the EMA buy to get in before the big runup on Friday. The EMA would have got you out on 4-6 very nicely and would have given you three chances [good odds] to enter before Friday. The FastSto and the EMA buys coincided. The MACD began to improve on the 13 and gave its buy on the 21st. Volulme Accumulation never responded to the price decline during April. Would be hard to find a more profitable and straight forward instance of the efficacy of the OBV/MF/EMA plus the confirmations of FastSto [and the SlowSto], MACD, and Volume Accumulation. Connie Mack - - ------------------------------ Date: Sun, 26 Apr 1998 09:37:31 -0400 From: "Tony Austin" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] BOBJY Keep in mind that BOBJY was over 52 in May of 1996 - ---------- From: Joe Scott To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] BOBJY Date: Saturday, April 25, 1998 10:30 PM Hi Mike, Looks ok at a quick glance for me, although I don't like PE's higher than 2Xsp, but I can't say that would stop me. It took one big jump on Friday with plenty of volume, its up from a base, which I would call 15.00 over 20%. So if you could buy it at 18.37 (Fridays close) and it fell back to support at even at best 16.50, you would still be down over 15%. So to answer your question, for me yes way to far extended, some will say pick it up if it pulls back a bit. I don't like buying a stock that has pulled back after a jump like that. So this would be one that I would miss, and I'd be off looking for another. don't know a thing joe joe@2fords.net http://www.2fords.net/joe/ - - ------------------------------ Date: Sun, 26 Apr 1998 09:52:39 -0400 From: "Tony Austin" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] BOBJY I have looked at the chart, on TC2000, in a bit more detail. Should have seen this coming, although who could have guessed the scale. There was heavy and systematic buying throughout Feb and Mar. Somebody or body's, were scaling into this one for a long time. The buying went away in March. But there was not selling going on. Just an unasuming upward trickle. It's clear as a bell looking out of the hind sight goggles. Sometimes it's sitting in front of you and you don't see it, or don't spend enough time looking at or for this issues to see them. Even if I had seen this, given the current market flavor, not sure I would have called it a buy. Don't figure. Tony - - ------------------------------ Date: Sun, 26 Apr 1998 10:11:23 -0400 From: Connie Mack Rea Subject: [CANSLIM] Reversing Niagara: Buy Viagra Members-- Please permit me a momentary side-stepping of things Dow. My Father had this taped above his desk: Burning a stock certificate because the stock doesn't perform is as silly as spanking a foetus for sucking its thumb. The thought still makes me smile. Today, Maureen Dowd makes me smile when she writes about the Niagara that is Viagra. Think you'll like Dowd; she's one of the best. April 26, 1998 LIBERTIES / By MAUREEN DOWD Father's Little Helper WASHINGTON -- It is a sign of the times that the only thing American men are more obsessed with than Viagra is why they didn't buy stock in Viagra. We are moments away from Viagra juice bars in Brentwood, skim decaf Viagraccino in Seattle and Viagraburgers at the White House. My immediate reaction is: You guys can't have Viagra if we can't have fen-phen. Why is it that the "miracle" drugs for women always seem to have lethal side effects? Fen-phen caused heart trouble and the new "cure" for breast cancer may cause womb cancer. Meanwhile, the only serious side effects for Viagra seem to be the cramps urologists have developed from writing so many prescriptions, and the specter of insurance companies and the Government deciding how often poor, but game, seniors can have sex. Viagra works so well that one of the only failures reported so far was an overly sanguine 84-year-old man from Oklahoma City. I know my reaction is petty. So, I will try to offer a more sophisticated social analysis of what it means that doctors all over the country now have taped phone messages advising, "Press 3 for Viagra." It has been a stunning week. Until now, the last thing on earth men would admit to was impotence. But men of all ages are swamping doctors' offices, claiming flaccidity and begging for that little blue pill dubbed the "Pfizer Riser." It's sort of touching, really. You know all those men aren't impotent. A lot must think the pills will turn them into love machines and help them get more sex. But what's wrong with these would-be studs, pills can't fix. This mass yearning for virility does illuminate a couple of things. It explains the infatuation with the swaggering Rat Pack and silly cigar bars. And it explains why the public never really got angry at Bill Clinton for his rapacious appetites. Americans, secretly so anxious about sex, were obviously reassured, perhaps even proud, to see their leader functioning at peak performance. (A guest on MSNBC joked that the Viagra ad jingle could be "Take the pill and be like Bill.") Tom Brokaw predicted a senior sexual revolution. Will Sarasota change its name to Viagra Falls? But boomer guys in their 40's and 50's are helping to drive this craze, because boomers think the easy way is the best way, and are determined to turn back the clock on aging. They can get their eyesight lasered back to 20-20, their teeth whitened, their love handles siphoned, their frown lines Botoxed, their baldness alleviated. The sexual revolution that began with the Pill in the 60's may revive with another kind of pill in the 90's. The generation of free love, eroto-pharmacology and psychedelic drugs ("One pill makes you larger and one pill makes you small," as Jefferson Airplane wailed) is morphing into Gen V with a new recreational drug. Men think women are greeting the arrival of Viagra, which promises to enhance performance if taken an hour before sex, with as much unalloyed glee as they are. Sorry, guys, but it's more complicated than that. An unscientific poll of my girlfriends found that they would rather have a pill that could change a man's personality an hour after sex. A pill that insures that he always calls the next day and never gets spooked. Women already think men are led too much by their anatomy. If Pfizer's rivals are smart, they are looking for the Viagra antidote. For each woman who celebrates Viagra, there's another who has nightmares about her 62-year-old husband undergoing a satyric transformation and chasing 21-year-old interns, his desk littered with empty Viagra bottles. Few wives want to worry about counting their husbands' Viagra pills. And think of the male wrath if women get out of the mood during that crucial window of Viagra opportunity. As men know, women like to think they're special. With Viagra, women will never know for sure whether it's their own allure or just chemically enhanced blood-vessel function. Viagra is in trials for women, and may win over female doubters if it is shown to have the same benefits. Then again, the answer may not be in our blood vessels. But we are still dreaming of pills that would increase male self-awareness instead of self-indulgence. Or even cure our pet peeves. As one woman I know who works in television wickedly observed, "How about a pill that would stop men from giving Diane Sawyer seven million dollars a year?" Connie Mack - - ------------------------------ Date: Sun, 26 Apr 1998 10:00:46 +0200 From: Johan Van Houtven Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Cash Position (was M Today) At 09:04 PM 25-04-98 GMT, you wrote: Dan wrote: >Monday was a good day for me >and I have been doing pretty well lately. However, I hadn't made a >trade in almost two months and I looked over Peter Christiansen's list >and liked a lot of what I saw. Still, I couldn't bring myself to sell >any of my 3 stocks, and I was pretty much margined to the hilt. I took >some loss on Tuesday, and on Wednesday I looked at my stocks and had >to admit that they didn't look like they were doing anything. I just >went to 100% cash in a moment of decision. Glad I did, because >Thursday I would have lost about 25% of my profits for the year. Wow, good for you! I'd love to have a look at the charts of the stocks you owned. To see if there were any signs to looked like sell signals. >Wednesday and Friday were also losses, though more modest. > >Until I feel general market conditions have improved or have a very >good feeling about a stock's prospects (whether I'm thinking long or >short), I am glad to be in cash. Johan Van Houtven CLICK! N.V. / Wilrijk, Belgium - - ------------------------------ Date: Sun, 26 Apr 1998 10:39:04 -0700 From: Talib Hirji Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] OBV/MF Stocks Connie, I tried to develop scan based on your OBV/MF strategy in my AIQ software and came up with 7 stocks of my 8000+ database. Of these seven, the appearance of chart for only two, as I see, can be considered candidates and they are "RTI" and "SNTKY". If you can, Please let me know, if you would consider these as buy candidates per your standards. Thank You, Talib At 04:29 PM 4/25/98 -0400, you wrote: >Members-- > >Although there were fewer stocks available for scan on the three >exchanges, there were more stocks that survived the screening: GLH, BDT, >FFD, and RAZR. There have been days the last two weeks when not a >single stock survived; and rarely do I find four. > >Those who have allowed OBV/MF/EMA to be complementary indicators to >their Canslim indicators--and have spoken to me privately and on the >site--seem to have grasped the concept quite well. Most of the stocks >from your screening are very well chosen. I've taken two or three for >myself--with your permission, of course. > >Of the four stocks, only GLH is ready to buy; it gave a second level buy >on Friday. You can get too cute with the three levels of the EMA, both >buying and selling, because you may get a first level buy in the middle >of the day and won't be able to act on it unless you're watching every >few minutes. Getting a first and second level signal or a second and >third level signal in one day is not uncommon. > >To refine the EMA, you can do this. Find a stock in which at least two >EMAs are in incline, such that the 3-line is about to pass through the >7. Then pull up a two or five day hourly chart--or a two day-15 minute >chart if you want to be aggressive. When, on either chart, you get a >first level buy signal, put your order in. You'll need to anticipate at >what price the buy will take place. And keep the spread in mind as you >decide. > >If you have a Time & Sales chart, you may see some block trades that >give a hint at what price to move in. > >The positive MF divergence for GLH begins in mid-March to about the end >of April. The MF tails off while the stock is rising the last three >days. This is a slight negative, but keep it in mind. A slight >negative in a powerful indicator is not to be ignored. If the stock >doesn't act the way you want following Friday's buy, tighten >everything--your stops, your emotion, and your mind. Remember that you >are buying into a weakening market. > >The OBV has risen from the last of February to the spike in mid-March >while the price has fallen. > >Price continues to fall and the OBV levels out in mid-March and then >begins a slow rise out >to the present. The MACD is coming off an oversold bottom and looks >okay. The SlowSto is ambiguous. > >FFD gave a buy over a week ago. On a correction that results in a new >buy, there is some juice left if the OBV/MF stays positive. > >BDT gave a sell over a week ago. If the OBV/MF stays positive, this >would be a buy. > >RAZR is not a buy but the 3-line is rising and will pass through the >7-line with another up tick or two. This is beginning to look like an >instance I spoke about with GLH. > >I'm reading RAZR this way. At the end of March price falls out of >bed--as does OBV and MF. But here is the positive reading. Both the >OBV and MF track the fallen price for a week, but then abruptly rise >even higher when the price was at its high [about 23] although the price >is now about 18. The rise of MF after its fall, and the price fall, >indicates that the money is coming in ever faster than before. > >The price does not respond. If we're right--that there is good OBV >volume that continues after the price decline and that money is coming >in even faster than before--we're in a position to make a very safe >entry, an entry in which the prospects for making money are greater than >the prospects for losing money. > >Playing the odds is the best that anyone can do. That's why traders can >lose on 50-60 percent of their trades and still make money: Find the >entries with the least risk and religiously defend the stops. For an >investor/trader not to arm himself with stops is as silly as a violinist >saying he doesn't play well because bowing makes his arm tired. > >Too, there is the Monica Lewinsky market principle: Don't go down on >your stops--unless you don't mind wearing knee pads and like to swallow >your losses. > >Built into the positive divergence of OBV/MF is the fact that it ferrets >out stocks that are in decline [or have been periodically in decline] >but ready to recover [perhaps only temporarily and hence the invitation >for traders to make some money] and have already declined [oversold?] >and ready to move up. > >Where there is room for differing interpretations are these instances: >[1] how far back does the positive divergence occur; [2] how long was >the divergence; [3] how many divergences; [4] from what level does the >divergence arise; [5] how powerful was the divergence? Most answers lie >in reading trendlines drawn on price, OBV/MF, MACD, and Stochastics. If >you're inclined, use a protractor to get some angles [ratios] of rise >and fall between price and OBV/MF. There are more choices. No reason >why you can't introduce yours. > >The three level EMA--and you can pick your own numbers--is one of the >best in/out indicators around. Don't let its simplicity disguise its >efficacy. Same with OBV/MF. > >I would print out some of the charts that have recently met both Canslim >and OBV/MF criteria. Not often will the two systems coincide, but when >they do coincide, and, they do, they should perform extraordinarily >well and give you further comfort in your entry. > >Even when there is no coincidence, OBV/MF can provide confirmation or >negation of Canslim stocks, especially to evaluate the quality of >breakouts. > >Connie Mack > > >- > > - - ------------------------------ End of canslim-digest V2 #212 ***************************** To unsubscribe to canslim-digest, send an email to "majordomo@xmission.com" with "unsubscribe canslim-digest" in the body of the message. For information on digests or retrieving files and old messages send "help" to the same address. Do not use quotes in your message.