From: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com (canslim-digest) To: canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Subject: canslim-digest V2 #2129 Reply-To: canslim Sender: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Errors-To: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Precedence: bulk Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable X-No-Archive: yes canslim-digest Saturday, February 16 2002 Volume 02 : Number 2129 In this issue: Re: [CANSLIM] Lack of Buy Candidates Re: [CANSLIM] Lack of Buy Candidates Reverse the Aging Process Re: AW: [CANSLIM] Lack of Buy Candidates Re: [CANSLIM] Lack of Buy Candidates [CANSLIM] Worley's Weekend Weeview Re: [CANSLIM] Lack of Buy Candidates ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Date: Sat, 16 Feb 2002 13:11:19 -0500 From: "Dan Forant" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Lack of Buy Candidates Andreas, I understand your point now concerning shorting. There also have been sto= cks as you mentioned worth going long for. Everyone has to adjust a method t= o their liking. It's important to get into a market at it's earliest move upward, but one must be very careful. It's volatile down there. Tom's has years of well earned experience and plays his method well. CANSLIM works well in a bull market. I'm not so sure we're headed there yet. Till then I'll use candlesticks and Gregory Morris's filtering system. L8ter DanF - ----- Original Message ----- From: "Andreas Himmelreich" To: Sent: Saturday, February 16, 2002 7:38 AM Subject: AW: [CANSLIM] Lack of Buy Candidates Hey Dan, thats exactly what I wanted to say, sorry to get my point not accross. From my point of view its not immoral, its not so difficult as it might sound in the first place, investing is like sailing, go where the wind is ... German markets would function much, much better if shorting would be allowed. Some institutions can do it, but only on a daily basis, and the smal time privat investors can not do it at all, because that is illegal here. Actually stocks that trade in germany and have a second listing on the nasdaq had never that big evaluation and pump and dump problem like other stocks in the "neuer market" (the german kind of nasdaq). The shorters went in and brought it to sustainable levels ... But Tom has a point as well: Since March 2000 there was money to be made = on the long side, due to IGs that just head of from that time on ..., they a= re just not so easy to spot ... Best Regards Andreas > -----Urspr=FCngliche Nachricht----- > Von: Dan Forant [SMTP:dforant1@nycap.rr.com] > Gesendet am: Saturday, February 16, 2002 12:29 PM > An: canslim@lists.xmission.com > Betreff: Re: [CANSLIM] Lack of Buy Candidates > > First of all, you can't compare the German market with ours, and saying > shorting is immoral is laughable. Difficult to to? Why? > > L8ter > DanF > ----- Original Message ----- > From: "Andreas Himmelreich" > To: > Sent: Saturday, February 16, 2002 5:32 AM > Subject: AW: [CANSLIM] Lack of Buy Candidates > > > Tom, > > I belive that is possible, there where great group moves in the last tw= o > years. > Actually the builders took of shortly after the rally was broken in Mar= ch > 2000, and since then some stocks out of that group are up tenfold. Another > wave was Medical Ethical Drugs, stuff like TARO made good bucks. > > But I do not belive it makes sense to say: Shorting is inmoral or too > difficult to do. > Look at the markets in Germany (where shorting is not allowed). We had > swings going from 1000 to 9500 an then to 600 (in our "Nasdaq" the Neue= r > Markt). > With shorters in the market, this would not have happened. > > Andreas > > > > -----Urspr=FCngliche Nachricht----- > > Von: Tom Worley [SMTP:stkguru@netside.net] > > Gesendet am: Saturday, February 16, 2002 5:48 AM > > An: canslim@lists.xmission.com > > Betreff: Re: [CANSLIM] Lack of Buy Candidates > > > > haven't shorted in years, fully invested year round, made lots of $$ last > year, and profitable so far this year (including my fully margined > account). > > > > Tom Worley > > stkguru@netside.net > > AIM: TexWorley > > ----- Original Message ----- > > From: Dan Forant > > To: canslim@lists.xmission.com > > Sent: Friday, February 15, 2002 8:03 PM > > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Lack of Buy Candidates > > > > > > Of course it's absurd. If anyone's been in the market for the past year > and hasn't shorted and made $$, they are either very lucky or far bette= r > than the average investor. There was no shortage of stocks to short in > TC2000 and candlesticks. > > > > L8ter > > DanF > > ----- Original Message ----- > > From: Ian > > To: canslim@lists.xmission.com > > Sent: Friday, February 15, 2002 11:13 AM > > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Lack of Buy Candidates > > > > > > I find it almost absurd that WON discourages shorting. Almost all of > WON's ideas appear to have originated with Jesse Livermore, who made th= e > bulk of his money on the short side. The rules for selling a big CANSLI= M > winner make for perfect short candidates. Although selling a failed bre= a > kout as it returns into its base is NOT typically a good short candidat= e. > JMHO. > > > > Ian > > > > > > > > ----- Original Message ----- > > From: Rob Miller > > To: canslim@lists.xmission.com > > Sent: Friday, February 15, 2002 6:40 AM > > Subject: [CANSLIM] Lack of Buy Candidates > > > > > > Even if we have a FTD from here, I see few stocks worth buying. > However, my short list is overflowing. The only moderately attractive > stocks I see on the long side are those already in an uptrend that are > riding their lower channel. > > > > Is shorting considered off limits for this list? I know that W= ON > discourages it, but he also claimed to make good money from shorts in > HTMMIS. As I understand it, he discourages it as a medium for the masses, > nor necessarily for everyone. > > > > Rob > > << Datei: ATT00012.htm >> > > - > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. > > > > - > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Sat, 16 Feb 2002 11:01:05 -0800 (PST) From: Quan Tran Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Lack of Buy Candidates Dan, Who's Gregory Morris? Do you have an URL? - --- Dan Forant wrote: > Andreas, > > I understand your point now concerning shorting. There also have been stocks > as you mentioned worth going long for. Everyone has to adjust a method to > their liking. It's important to get into a market at it's earliest move > upward, but one must be very careful. It's volatile down there. Tom's has > years of well earned experience and plays his method well. CANSLIM works > well in a bull market. I'm not so sure we're headed there yet. Till then > I'll use candlesticks and Gregory Morris's filtering system. > > L8ter > DanF ===== Quan Tran vyellon@yahoo.com __________________________________________________ Do You Yahoo!? Yahoo! Sports - Coverage of the 2002 Olympic Games http://sports.yahoo.com - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Sat, 16 Feb 2002 12:19:02 -0700 From: "Lia" Subject: Reverse the Aging Process As seen on NBC, CBS, CNN, and even Oprah! The health discovery that actually reverses aging while burning fat, without dieting or exercise! This proven discovery has even been reported on by the New England Journal of Medicine. Forget aging and dieting forever! And it's Guaranteed! Click here: http://12.102.39.244 Would you like to lose weight while you sleep! No dieting! No hunger pains! No Cravings! No strenuous exercise! Change your life forever! 100% GUARANTEED! 1.Body Fat Loss 82% improvement. 2.Wrinkle Reduction 61% improvement. 3.Energy Level 84% improvement. 4.Muscle Strength 88% improvement. 5.Sexual Potency 75% improvement. 6.Emotional Stability 67% improvement. 7.Memory 62% improvement. *********************************************************** You are receiving this email as a subscriber to the Opt-In America Mailing List. To remove yourself from all related maillists, just click here: mailto:standardoptout@x263.net?Subject=REMOVE ------------------------------ Date: Sat, 16 Feb 2002 16:34:14 -0500 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: AW: [CANSLIM] Lack of Buy Candidates Your memory is pretty good, altho I consider buying small caps as much closer to classic CANSLIM rules for "S" than IBD or WON currently pushes. I wasn't losing money during the roaring bulls, just not making what I could. But that was not the fault of my application of CANSLIM, it was a direct consequence of total neglect of my portfolio due dedication and ho= urs spent on my day job. But even with total neglect, I still managed about 1= 2% or so without trading, so at least better than a money market. You are correct also that EPIQ was a major contributor to my profits in 2001, and I expect it to continue contributing in 2002. But I finished th= e year with every stock I owned up for the year, and with minimal trading. = I only bought two new ones in 2001, the rest I had owned from prior years. = So far in 2002, I have added 6 new ones, and sold one (merger announced). Al= tho three of the new ones are presently down, I am still up a little overall. And having fun. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net AIM: TexWorley - ----- Original Message ----- From: "esetser" To: Sent: Saturday, February 16, 2002 11:01 AM Subject: Re: AW: [CANSLIM] Lack of Buy Candidates Be careful here, Tom has his own special breed of CANSLIM, and it seems that his returns have NOT been a good indicator of average returns in the group. Unless I'm mistaken, Tom was losing money or breaking even back i= n the roaring bull, so maybe it was just his turn!! Tom does at least the following different from my approach (just from memory): 1 - Microcaps only (below the minimum recommended by WON) (S?) 2 - Buys in the base before the breakout (Needs to because of 1) 3 - Doesn't use Industry Group Strength as a leader/laggard indicator (I) 4 - Buys in all markets (M) >From my perspective, he violates the normal rules for S, I, and M. However, Tom does admit to this, and doesn't even generally post his selections due to these variations. Given the differences, I think it should be expected that Tom's performan= ce over a given year will vary from many of us. (And there is that one stoc= k that has appreciated several times his original investment that is impacting the results too!) One other note. From my perspective, Tom's value to the group is his willingness to take the time to review most anyone's suggestions and selections and give great detail in his responses. His general approach may not follow CANSLIM exactly, but his postings to the group do followin= g WON quite closely. He is our master educator on the technique, and gives= a lot of time and effort to the group. FWIW, I ended up 2001 with about a 13% loss and am down about 6% more thi= s year so far. Presently, I am only 25% invested with one position. I am not really responding on the group much, since I do not feel I have the experience to short, and I am waiting for "M" to clear up before new purchases. At 11:36 AM 2/16/02 +0100, you wrote: >I think Tom bend only one rule --> stay out of the market if there is a >downtrend in the overall market. > >But as I said, if you choose small caps and or IGs that are going up, no >problem making money on the long side. >Just look on the builders or on the gold stocks latley ... > >BUT NEVER, NEVER buy stocks when the market and the IG is down. >I have not seen one example where a member of the group does not break d= own >then (besides its a small cap) as well. > >Some IGs are just setting up a bull market for its members no matter wha= t >the market is doing. > >> -----Urspr=FCngliche Nachricht----- >> Von: Tom Worley [SMTP:stkguru@netside.net] >> Gesendet am: Saturday, February 16, 2002 6:19 AM >> An: canslim@lists.xmission.com >> Betreff: Re: [CANSLIM] Lack of Buy Candidates >> >> While I routinely violate CANSLIM rules, nonetheless my entire process= is >heavily based in CANSLIM. And I netted 76% for the full year, so yeah, I >made a net profit. >> >> Tom Worley >> stkguru@netside.net >> AIM: TexWorley >> ----- Original Message ----- >> From: David Squires >> To: canslim@lists.xmission.com >> Sent: Saturday, February 16, 2002 12:11 AM >> Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Lack of Buy Candidates >> >> >> haven't shorted in years, fully invested year round, made lots of $$ >last year, and profitable so far this year (including my fully margined >account). >> >> >>fully invested year round, made lots of $$ last year<< >> >> You were fully invested last year long and made a net profit? You >better call George Soros! BTW, is this even remotely CANSLIM. >> >> DSquires >> ----- Original Message ----- >> From: Tom Worley >> To: canslim@lists.xmission.com >> Sent: Friday, February 15, 2002 10:47 PM >> Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Lack of Buy Candidates >> >> >> haven't shorted in years, fully invested year round, made lots of = $$ >last year, and profitable so far this year (including my fully margined >account). >> >> Tom Worley >> stkguru@netside.net >> AIM: TexWorley >> ----- Original Message ----- >> From: Dan Forant >> To: canslim@lists.xmission.com >> Sent: Friday, February 15, 2002 8:03 PM >> Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Lack of Buy Candidates >> >> >> Of course it's absurd. If anyone's been in the market for the pa= st >year and hasn't shorted and made $$, they are either very lucky or far >better than the average investor. There was no shortage of stocks to sho= rt >in TC2000 and candlesticks. >> >> L8ter >> DanF >> ----- Original Message ----- >> From: Ian >> To: canslim@lists.xmission.com >> Sent: Friday, February 15, 2002 11:13 AM >> Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Lack of Buy Candidates >> >> >> I find it almost absurd that WON discourages shorting. Almost = all >of WON's ideas appear to have originated with Jesse Livermore, who made = the >bulk of his money on the short side. The rules for selling a big CANSLIM >winner make for perfect short candidates. Although selling a failed >breakout as it returns into its base is NOT typically a good short >candidate. JMHO. >> >> Ian >> >> >> >> ----- Original Message ----- >> From: Rob Miller >> To: canslim@lists.xmission.com >> Sent: Friday, February 15, 2002 6:40 AM >> Subject: [CANSLIM] Lack of Buy Candidates >> >> >> Even if we have a FTD from here, I see few stocks worth buyi= ng. > However, my short list is overflowing. The only moderately attractive >stocks I see on the long side are those already in an uptrend that are >riding their lower channel. >> >> Is shorting considered off limits for this list? I know tha= t >WON discourages it, but he also claimed to make good money from shorts i= n >HTMMIS. As I understand it, he discourages it as a medium for the masse= s, >nor necessarily for everyone. >> >> Rob >> << Datei: ATT00014.htm >> - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Sat, 16 Feb 2002 18:27:30 -0500 From: "Dan Forant" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Lack of Buy Candidates Gregory Morris is President of G.Morris Corporation, an investment/software consulting firm headquartered in Dallas, Texas. He arguably wrote the best book on candlestick charting,"Candlestick Charting Explained". A book about 300 easy to read pages with plenty of charting examples. The simplicity and clarity of reading charts is far superior to Western style charts. Also if you learn 1-3 day stick patterns you will no doubt increase your chances of success with any trading system. Japanese Candlesticks have been used for hundreds of years. He highlights a system called "Candlestick Filtering". A short term system that doesn't glue one to a monitor. It's very successful. I use it and have more confidence in trading. As for CANSLIM, candles can give excellent signals that a handle is about to breakout, or not days before. The book store price is $37.50, far less online. L8ter DanF - ----- Original Message ----- From: "Quan Tran" To: Sent: Saturday, February 16, 2002 2:01 PM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Lack of Buy Candidates > Dan, > > Who's Gregory Morris? Do you have an URL? > > > --- Dan Forant wrote: > > Andreas, > > > > I understand your point now concerning shorting. There also have been stocks > > as you mentioned worth going long for. Everyone has to adjust a method to > > their liking. It's important to get into a market at it's earliest move > > upward, but one must be very careful. It's volatile down there. Tom's has > > years of well earned experience and plays his method well. CANSLIM works > > well in a bull market. I'm not so sure we're headed there yet. Till then > > I'll use candlesticks and Gregory Morris's filtering system. > > > > L8ter > > DanF > > > ===== > Quan Tran > vyellon@yahoo.com > > __________________________________________________ > Do You Yahoo!? > Yahoo! Sports - Coverage of the 2002 Olympic Games > http://sports.yahoo.com > > - > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. > - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Sat, 16 Feb 2002 18:48:14 -0500 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] Worley's Weekend Weeview This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------=_NextPart_000_0054_01C1B71A.7D37B4C0 Content-Type: multipart/alternative; boundary="----=_NextPart_001_0055_01C1B71A.7D37B4C0" - ------=_NextPart_001_0055_01C1B71A.7D37B4C0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable MORE ENRON NEWS A total of 20,795 employees of Enron were in the 401K plan, and it is = estimated that about 63% of the plan was in Enron stock. The loss is in = excess of one billion dollars. It is estimated that most had already = lost 70 to 90% in the several months prior to the three week freeze = imposed while they changed plan administrators.=20 - -------------------------------------------------------------------------= - ------- EARNINGS For the first time in 15 months, analysts are raising more earnings = estimates than cutting them. The total raised was 51% for the week ended = 1/25/02.=20 - -------------------------------------------------------------------------= - ------- ACCOUNTING REPERCUSSIONS Krispy Kreme, which had planned to shift some of its debt using off = balance sheet financing, has now announced it will use conventional = financing. Then there is Newmont Mining (NEM) which got hurt Monday = after Prudential downgraded it, saying "Several of the deposits that = Newmont classifies as reserves or resources appear suspect". Want to = guess who their auditor is??=20 I expect that eventually accounting firms will be banned from doing = consulting business with the same companies they audit. But meantime, = most are already changing their practice to follow this. And any company = with any kind of accounting problem is suffering the hot spotlight of = the media. Latest to surface include IBM, WCOM, NVDA, AFAM. - -------------------------------------------------------------------------= - ------- JAPAN Total of bad bank loan debt now being estimated at $1.1 trillion, and = that's given their generous interpretation of what is a non-performing = loan. Govt debt from deficit spending is already 130% of GDP. And still = the Nikkei comes roaring back to break 10,000 again, all on hopes that = the govt is finally moving to bail out the banks. Just operational last = Friday is the Banks Shareholding Purchasing Corp (BSPC) funded with $15 = billion to spend to March 31, and another $15 billion for the next = fiscal year. Money comes from over 100 financial institutions, and will = be used to buy stocks from the banks rather than have the selling = pressure hitting the markets. Sounds like a shell game to me, moving = losses from the banks to BSPC. And still unclear to me is whether the = sale to BSPC will be done at current market prices, or at original cost = basis. I just don't see the benefit of a financial institution funding = BSPC to buy its own portfolio. But somehow the Japanese see this as a = good thing. - -------------------------------------------------------------------------= - ------- ECONOMICS Retails sales slipped a little (minus 0.2%) in January due expected weak = car sales (told you late last year they were cannibalizing future = sales), but the figure beat expectations for sales less cars, rising = 1.2%. Both beat expectations of minus 0.3% and plus 0.4%. In addition, = December figures were revised upward from a negative 0.1% to plus 0.2% = and plus 0.7%. The combo of revising all data for December up and into = positive territory, along with two straight months of strong sales = (except for autos) is a compelling trend. And even the decline in auto = sales is soft and expected, given all the zero interest loan incentive = plans late last year. New unemployment claims fell a little instead of rising a little as = expected, further pointing to stabilization in the employment sector. Overall inventories were down in December 0.4%, just under expectations = of a 0.5% drop. But excluding autos (which rose 0.1%, another sign of = just how sales were cannibalized late last year) inventories were down = 0.6%. This was the 11th straight month of inventory declines. Producer Price Index (PPI) beat expectations (overall up 0.1%, expected = was 0.2 to 0.3%, and core was down 0.1% against expectations of a rise = of 0.1%) continuing to signal no inflation, at least at the wholesale = level. For all of 2001, the PPI dropped 2.6%, biggest drop for 12 months = since Feb '49-'50. - -------------------------------------------------------------------------= - ------- "M" Don't know if everyone had a week like mine, but I felt pretty bloodied = and battered by the time Friday's trading was over. Not a good week for = growth, especially for the small and micro cap stocks. Despite that, for = the week, the DOW 30, S&P500, and the Russell 2000 managed to close = slightly higher for the week. And NASDAQ finished less than a percent = down. Gold began a slide back below $300, no surprise to me who doesn't = believe this was anything more than a spike in a continuing bear market = for the precious metals.=20 - -------------------------------------------------------------------------= - ------- WORLEY'S WATCHLIST WANNABES As always, Bx means a chart where I see the stock in a flat line "B"ase = of "x" weeks duration. If I see a specific pattern such as a cup & = handle, double bottom, LLUR, etc I will say so. And this review is with = all my blinders and personal biases removed, they are not stocks I might = personally consider buying. For the most part, I am only considering the = prior 6-9 months of the chart. Population of stocks I am reviewing this weekend appears to be stable to = slightly larger. AMWD - B2, but may be trying to reestablish its LLUR patter from last = year ATK - c&h, triple bottom, handle two weeks long with price spike on = volume Friday approaching pivot BPRX - b/o from an 8 week consolidation appears to have failed BRO - B2 CDWC - B3 CECO - B2 DHI - B3, another home builder DHOM - B2, another home builder, in my fund DKWD - rough LLUR DLX - LLUR EPIQ - 9 week consolidation base, owned and in fund FCEA - B8 FCN - the beautiful LLUR pattern may be on its last legs FLIR - possible c&h FMAR - B6 GFF - LLUR GTK - B2 HOV - B7, another home builder HRB - LLUR MBFI - B6 MCL - low priced LLUR NOBL - consolidation, great earnings growth, in my fund OVRL - B3, I own and in my VR fund, EPS 49 RMCI - c&h, owned and in fund SHLR - B2, another home builder SNS - B5 STJ - B3 SWTX - B6, low priced SYPR - LLUR URBN - ascending base?? WLS - hummm??, in my fund, another home builder WSH - B2 Happy Hunting, Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net AIM: TexWorley - ------=_NextPart_001_0055_01C1B71A.7D37B4C0 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
MORE ENRON NEWS
A total of 20,795 employees of Enron were in the = 401K=20 plan, and it is estimated that about 63% of the plan was in Enron stock. = The=20 loss is in excess of one billion dollars. It is estimated that most had = already=20 lost 70 to 90% in the several months prior to the three week freeze = imposed=20 while they changed plan administrators.=20
EARNINGS
For the first time in 15 months, analysts are = raising more=20 earnings estimates than cutting them. The total raised was 51% for the = week=20 ended 1/25/02.=20
ACCOUNTING = REPERCUSSIONS
Krispy Kreme, which had planned to shift some of = its debt=20 using off balance sheet financing, has now announced it will use = conventional=20 financing. Then there is Newmont Mining (NEM) which got hurt Monday = after=20 Prudential downgraded it, saying "Several of the deposits that Newmont=20 classifies as reserves or resources appear suspect". Want to guess who = their=20 auditor is??
 
I expect that eventually accounting firms will = be banned=20 from doing consulting business with the same companies they audit. But = meantime,=20 most are already changing their practice to follow this. And any company = with=20 any kind of accounting problem is suffering the hot spotlight of the = media.=20 Latest to surface include IBM, WCOM, NVDA, AFAM.
JAPAN
Total of bad bank loan debt now being estimated = at $1.1=20 trillion, and that's given their generous interpretation of what is a=20 non-performing loan. Govt debt from deficit spending is already 130% of = GDP. And=20 still the Nikkei comes roaring back to break 10,000 again, all on hopes = that the=20 govt is finally moving to bail out the banks. Just operational last = Friday is=20 the Banks Shareholding Purchasing Corp (BSPC) funded with $15 billion to = spend=20 to March 31, and another $15 billion for the next fiscal year. Money = comes from=20 over 100 financial institutions, and will be used to buy stocks from the = banks=20 rather than have the selling pressure hitting the markets. Sounds = like a=20 shell game to me, moving losses from the banks to BSPC. And still = unclear to me=20 is whether the sale to BSPC will be done at current market prices, or at = original cost basis. I just don't see the benefit of a financial = institution=20 funding BSPC to buy its own portfolio. But somehow the Japanese see this = as a=20 good thing.
ECONOMICS
Retails sales slipped a little (minus 0.2%) in January due expected = weak=20 car sales (told you late last year they were cannibalizing future = sales), but=20 the figure beat expectations for sales less cars, rising 1.2%. Both beat = expectations of minus 0.3% and plus 0.4%. In addition, December figures = were=20 revised upward from a negative 0.1% to plus 0.2% and plus 0.7%. The = combo of=20 revising all data for December up and into positive territory, along = with two=20 straight months of strong sales (except for autos) is a compelling = trend. And=20 even the decline in auto sales is soft and expected, given all the zero = interest=20 loan incentive plans late last year.
 
New unemployment claims fell a little instead of rising a little as = expected, further pointing to stabilization in the employment = sector.
 
Overall inventories were down in December 0.4%, just under = expectations of=20 a 0.5% drop. But excluding autos (which rose 0.1%, another sign of just = how=20 sales were cannibalized late last year) inventories were down 0.6%. This = was the=20 11th straight month of inventory declines.
 
Producer Price Index (PPI) beat expectations (overall up 0.1%, = expected was=20 0.2 to 0.3%, and core was down 0.1% against expectations of a rise of = 0.1%)=20 continuing to signal no inflation, at least at the wholesale level. For = all of=20 2001, the PPI dropped 2.6%, biggest drop for 12 months since Feb = '49-'50.
"M"
Don't know if everyone had a week like mine, but I felt pretty = bloodied and=20 battered by the time Friday's trading was over. Not a good week for = growth,=20 especially for the small and micro cap stocks. Despite that, for the = week, the=20 DOW 30, S&P500, and the Russell 2000 managed to close slightly = higher for=20 the week. And NASDAQ finished less than a percent down. Gold began a = slide back=20 below $300, no surprise to me who doesn't believe this was anything more = than a=20 spike in a continuing bear market for the precious metals.
WORLEY'S WATCHLIST WANNABES
As always, Bx means a chart where I see the stock in a flat line = "B"ase of=20 "x" weeks duration. If I see a specific pattern such as a cup & = handle,=20 double bottom, LLUR, etc I will say so. And this review is with all my = blinders=20 and personal biases removed, they are not stocks I might personally = consider=20 buying. For the most part, I am only considering the prior 6-9 months of = the=20 chart.
 
Population of stocks I am reviewing this weekend appears to be = stable to=20 slightly larger.
 
AMWD - B2, but may be trying to reestablish its LLUR patter from = last=20 year
ATK - c&h, triple bottom, handle two weeks long with price = spike on=20 volume Friday approaching pivot
BPRX - b/o from an 8 week consolidation appears to have = failed
BRO - B2
CDWC - B3
CECO - B2
DHI - B3, another home builder
DHOM - B2, another home builder, in my fund
DKWD - rough LLUR
DLX - LLUR
EPIQ - 9 week consolidation base, owned and in fund
FCEA - B8
FCN - the beautiful LLUR pattern may be on its last legs
FLIR - possible c&h
FMAR - B6
GFF - LLUR
GTK - B2
HOV - B7, another home builder
HRB - LLUR
MBFI - B6
MCL - low priced LLUR
NOBL - consolidation, great earnings growth, in my fund
OVRL - B3, I own and in my VR fund, EPS 49
RMCI - c&h, owned and in fund
SHLR - B2, another home builder
SNS - B5
STJ - B3
SWTX - B6, low priced
SYPR - LLUR
URBN - ascending base??
WLS - hummm??, in my fund, another home builder
WSH - B2
 
Happy Hunting,
 
3D""
 
 
Tom Worley
stkguru@netside.net
AIM:=20 TexWorley
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Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Sat, 16 Feb 2002 23:49:14 EST From: Spencer48@aol.com Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Lack of Buy Candidates Katherine: Apropos of your E-mail, then, are you stating that the Market's direction isn't as important as WON says it is. He says that about 70% of stocks will fall, no matter how great their earnings are, during a bear market. That's why he advises not to go long during a bear. I've been taking this advice. Anecdotally, based on my experience in the market, his advice regarding the Market's direction and when and when not to buy stocks always seemed valid. However, as I understand it, you are saying that strong stocks (stocks with high and accelerating earnings) in strong industries will do well-even during a bear. And how do you define a "strong industry"? The top 40% of IBD's 197? I wonder if WON has ever done a statistical study on the 70% failure rate of strong stocks WHEN the strong stock is in a strong industry? It would be very interesting to see if the 70% falls, and by how much it falls. It would be even more eye-opening if he were able to statistically correlate the strength of the industry (during a bear) with the likelihood that the stock would rise or fall. jans In a message dated 2/16/2002 10:57:52 AM Eastern Standard Time, kmalm@earthlink.net writes: << I don't buy the CANSLIM party line that you should "stay out" of the market if there aren't 1000's of stocks to choose from. I look for good stocks with rising relative strength, strategic advantage and good technical strength that are members of rising and strong industry groups. I sell stocks that break down technically or that are members of a group that is beginning to break down. I short stocks/groups in industries that are breaking down to take advantage of the prevailing winds. I let the market tell me which kinds of stocks are doing well. Whether it's value/growth, small/mid/large cap, industry group, I'm agnostic (except that I *do* stay away from super microcaps). What works, works and I have a methodology that looks for what's working. The "market" is nothing more than a market of stocks. Too many people focus on what's *not* working and miss the many great opportunities that are out there. One of my mentors always says "when the market speaks, have big ears." I say, "when a stock and an industry speaks, have big ears." As I see it, too many folks are still focused on what *was* working during the last Great Bull market. This is the history of markets... >> - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ End of canslim-digest V2 #2129 ****************************** To unsubscribe to canslim-digest, send an email to "majordomo@xmission.com" with "unsubscribe canslim-digest" in the body of the message. For information on digests or retrieving files and old messages send "help" to the same address. Do not use quotes in your message.