From: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com (canslim-digest) To: canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Subject: canslim-digest V2 #2209 Reply-To: canslim Sender: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Errors-To: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Precedence: bulk Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable X-No-Archive: yes canslim-digest Monday, March 18 2002 Volume 02 : Number 2209 In this issue: RE: [CANSLIM] Worley's Weekend Weeview - dedicated to Cassie ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Date: Mon, 18 Mar 2002 09:44:23 -0500 From: "Marshak, Alex (CTG-HR Sys)" Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Worley's Weekend Weeview - dedicated to Cassie This message is in MIME format. Since your mail reader does not understand this format, some or all of this message may not be legible. - ------_=_NextPart_000_01C1CE8B.6510737C Content-Type: multipart/alternative; boundary="----_=_NextPart_001_01C1CE8B.6510737C" Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit - ------_=_NextPart_001_01C1CE8B.6510737C Content-Type: text/plain; charset=iso-8859-1 Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit Hi Tom, I am sorry for the loss of your friend. I came from Russia (USSR) To USA back in January 1979 and I brought my dog with me. It was a big journey for us: from Russia to Czechoslovakia, Austria, Italy and finally USA. It was not easy with 150 pounds dog AND no money. When he died in 1988 I was crying for several days and never had a dog since then(though my parents have a dog and a cat). Again, I am sorry for your loss. PS. Without recovery in Japan and/or Europe it will be very difficult for US alone to come back to the glorious bulls days in the near future - stay defensive for the rest of the year. Alex Marshak - -----Original Message----- From: Tom Worley [mailto:stkguru@netside.net] Sent: Saturday, March 16, 2002 9:43 AM To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Subject: [CANSLIM] Worley's Weekend Weeview - dedicated to Cassie I lost my oldest cat early this morning, Cassandra was my wife's pick over 17 years ago, but she could not beat cancer despite two recent operations. She was not an easy cat to love, but she leaves a hole in my soul nonetheless. She was a good girl right to the end, and did not force me to put her down, she picked her time and place. I cannot count the number of WWW columns she interrupted because she needed some attention, I only wish she could interrupt many more. My wife died over six years ago, and this was a fresh visit to that loss. _____ JAPAN Despite the 28% gain in the Nikkei in just five weeks, the fundamentals of Japanese economy are little improved. The latest report on private sector machinery orders showed a drop of 15.6% in January, far worst than expected, and indicates weak capital spending in the near future. Meanwhile, GDP dropped 1.2% in the last quarter of 2001, and nat'l debt was already 140% of GDP, largest ratio of the top 7 industrialized nations. Both are the worst since the end of WWII. _____ ANDERSEN Scored another record, they were the auditors for HIH, an Australian insurance company and that country's largest ever bankruptcy. More lawsuits against Andersen are expected. Meanwhile the company talked to Deloitte about a possible merger, or purchase of assets after they find a way to protect the buyer from Enron and other liabilities (one possibility - bankruptcy!!). And on Monday, FedEx made it official, dumped Andersen for Deloitte. Many more are following, and looks to me like the firm is ended. Deloitte ended talks on a possible buyout as did one other of the top "5", and the other two are not even interested in initiating talks. Seems the potential liability is just too great. So goes one of the formerly great names in the accounting industry. Besides, why pay for clients when they will come to you for free? _____ ECONOMICS Forecasts for Q1 GDP are rising fast, already up a full percent to 2.6%. Noted for unexpected strength are consumer spending and business investment. Inventories fell less than expected in January (0.2% vs 0.4% expected), however overall sales increased 1.2%. This was the biggest sales increase since June 2000. Meanwhile retail sales increased only 0.3% instead of the expected 0.9%. Much of the difference came from auto sales. Without autos, expected was 0.5% and actual was 0.2%. FOMC meets on Tuesday, and is widely expected to eliminate the easing bias at a minimum. Expectations now are nearly 100% that they will raise rates at the May meeting. And using the futures as a forecasting barometer suggests that rates, presently at 1.75%, will be up to 3% by the end of the year. To me, so far the economic recovery appears to be stronger than Mr. G was expecting, and may open a window of opportunity for his often speculated retirement. That would likely be disruptive to the markets for the short term, at least. Univ. of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment gauge soared for February to 95 from 90.7. Expectations were for a gain to 93. Both the Current Conditions and the Expectations Indexes were also up. And Industrial Production rose 0.4% for February, double the expectations. Capacity Utilization was up slightly. The PPI rose an expected 0.2%, while the core rate was unchanged against expectations of a 0.1% rise. _____ WORLEY'S WATCHLIST WANNABES As always, a Bx simply means a flat line "B"ase over "x" weeks, IMO. Should I see other familiar patterns, such as a c&h, double bottom, LLUR, etc., then I will say so. The population of stocks I will be reviewing continues to grow slowly, but I continue to see deterioration in small/micro cap growth stocks in favor of small cap value stocks and mid to large cap stocks. Techs continue to fail to show strong and consistent leadership. Homebuilders looks to be rolling over finally. ACS - nice short c&h AGY - B6 ATPX - high handle BIO - b/o Friday from short base, volume not convincing BLUD - holding Wednesday's b/o CPS - B4 DF - handle on a weak double bottom, volume not convincing DLX - just continuing on its LLUR way ESI - decent 8 month c&h HCBK - B5 LUX - b/o Friday on volume, short base LYTX - b/o Friday on volume, 3 week base MCL - LLUR NFI - saucer ODP - B4+ OII - B3 PBIX - B7 PEGA - base on base, in my VR Fund, low price, volume PETM - LLUR PNG - B3 POSS - trying to b/o from short handle on the cup, in my VR Fund PPD - on an unpredictable move again PQE - 9 week consolidation RAH - LLUR, but with strong earnings growth RMCF - double bottom on weak volume SRCL - B3 Happy hunting, Tom Worley stkguru@bellsouth.net AIM: TexWorley - ------_=_NextPart_001_01C1CE8B.6510737C Content-Type: text/html; charset=iso-8859-1 Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable

H= i Tom,

I= am sorry for the loss of your friend.

I= came from Russia (USSR) To USA back in January 1979 and I brought my dog = with me.

I= t was a big journey for us: from Russia to Czechoslovakia, Austria, Italy and = finally USA.  

I= t was not easy with 150 pounds dog AND no money. When he died in 1988 I was = crying for several days and

<= span style=3D"mso-spacerun: yes"> never had a dog since = then(though my parents have a dog and a cat).

A= gain, I am sorry for your loss.

P= S.

W= ithout recovery in Japan and/or Europe it will be very difficult for US alone = to come back to the glorious bulls days in the near = future

<= span style=3D"mso-spacerun: yes"> - stay defensive for the rest = of the year.

<= ![if = !supportEmptyParas]> 

=

<= i>Alex = Marshak

 

 <= /p>

=  

=

-----Original Message-----
From: Tom Worley = [mailto:stkguru@netside.net]
Sent: Saturday, March = 16, 2002 9:43 AM
To: = canslim@lists.xmission.com
Subject: [CANSLIM] = Worley's Weekend Weeview - dedicated to Cassie

 

I lost my oldest cat early this morning, Cassandra was my wife's pick over 17 = years ago, but she could not beat cancer despite two recent operations. She = was not an easy cat to love, but she leaves a hole in my soul nonetheless. She = was a good girl right to the end, and did not force me to put her down, she picked = her time and place. I cannot count the number of WWW columns she = interrupted because she needed some attention, I only wish she could interrupt many = more. My wife died over six years ago, and this was a fresh visit to that = loss.

JAPAN

Despite the 28% gain in the Nikkei in just five weeks, the fundamentals of = Japanese economy are little improved. The latest report on private sector = machinery orders showed a drop of 15.6% in January, far worst than expected, and indicates weak capital spending in the near future. Meanwhile, GDP = dropped 1.2% in the last quarter of 2001, and nat'l debt was already 140% of GDP, = largest ratio of the top 7 industrialized nations. Both are the worst since the = end of WWII.

ANDERSEN

Scored another record, they were the auditors for HIH, an Australian insurance = company and that country's largest ever bankruptcy. More lawsuits against = Andersen are expected. Meanwhile the company talked to Deloitte about a possible = merger, or purchase of assets after they find a way to protect the buyer from = Enron and other liabilities (one possibility - bankruptcy!!). And on Monday, = FedEx made it official, dumped Andersen for Deloitte.  = Many more are following, and looks to me like the firm is = ended. Deloitte ended talks on a possible buyout as did one other of the top "5", and the other two are not even interested in initiating = talks. Seems the potential liability is just too great. So goes one of the = formerly great names in the accounting industry. = Besides, why pay for clients when they will come to you = for free?

ECONOMICS

Forecasts for Q1 GDP are rising fast, already up a full percent to 2.6%. Noted = for unexpected strength are consumer spending and business investment. =

 

Inventories fell less than expected in January (0.2% vs 0.4% expected), however = overall sales increased 1.2%. This was the biggest sales increase since June = 2000. Meanwhile retail sales increased only 0.3% instead of the expected = 0.9%. Much of the difference came from auto sales. Without autos, expected was = 0.5% and actual was 0.2%.

 

FOMC meets on Tuesday, and is widely expected to eliminate the easing bias = at a minimum. Expectations now are nearly 100% that they will raise rates at = the May meeting. And using the futures as a forecasting barometer suggests that = rates, presently at 1.75%, will be up to 3% by the end of the year. To me, so = far the economic recovery appears to be stronger than Mr. G was expecting, and = may open a window of opportunity for his often speculated retirement. That would = likely be disruptive to the markets for the short term, at = least.

 

Univ. of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment gauge soared for February to 95 from = 90.7. Expectations were for a gain to 93. Both the Current Conditions and the Expectations Indexes were also up.

 

And Industrial Production rose 0.4% for February, double the expectations. = Capacity Utilization was up slightly.

 

The PPI rose an expected 0.2%, while the core rate was unchanged against = expectations of a 0.1% rise.

WORLEY'S WATCHLIST = WANNABES

As always, a Bx simply means a flat line "B"ase over = "x" weeks, IMO. Should I see other familiar patterns, such as a c&h, = double bottom, LLUR, etc., then I will say so.

 

The population of stocks I will be reviewing continues to grow slowly, but = I continue to see deterioration in small/micro cap growth stocks in favor = of small cap value stocks and mid to large cap stocks. Techs continue to = fail to show strong and consistent leadership. Homebuilders looks to be rolling = over finally.

 

ACS - nice short c&h

AGY - B6

ATPX - high handle

BIO - b/o Friday from short base, volume not convincing

BLUD - holding Wednesday's b/o

CPS - B4

DF - handle on a weak double bottom, volume not = convincing

DLX - just continuing on its LLUR way

ESI - decent 8 month c&h

HCBK - B5

LUX - - b/o Friday on volume, short base

LYTX - - b/o Friday on volume, 3 week base

MCL - LLUR

NFI - saucer

ODP - B4+

OII - B3

PBIX - B7

PEGA - base on base, in my VR Fund, low price, volume

PETM - LLUR

PNG - B3

POSS - trying to b/o from short handle on the cup, in my VR = Fund

PPD - on an unpredictable move again

PQE - 9 week consolidation

RAH - LLUR, but with strong earnings growth

RMCF - double bottom on weak volume

SRCL - B3

 

Happy hunting,

 

 

Tom Worley
stkguru@bellsouth.net
AIM: TexWorley

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