From: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com (canslim-digest) To: canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Subject: canslim-digest V2 #230 Reply-To: canslim Sender: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Errors-To: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Precedence: bulk X-No-Archive: yes canslim-digest Friday, May 8 1998 Volume 02 : Number 230 In this issue: Re: [CANSLIM] opinion on ICIX Re: [CANSLIM] Transwitch TXCC Re: [CANSLIM] opinion on ICIX Re: [CANSLIM] Screening result. Re: [CANSLIM] On Management holdings (was Adds to my watch list) Re: [CANSLIM] New Subscriber Introduction Re: [CANSLIM] opinion on ICIX [CANSLIM] Fw: Finance - Morning Call @ 05/07/98 [CANSLIM] Gencor - GX Re: [CANSLIM] New Subscriber Introduction Re: [CANSLIM] Gencor - GX Re: [CANSLIM] Gencor - GX Re: [CANSLIM] Gencor - GX [CANSLIM] NASDAQ H&S pattern Re: [CANSLIM] Adds to my watch list Re: [CANSLIM] RENG (was Adds to my watch list) Re: [CANSLIM] Gencor - GX Re: [CANSLIM] RENG (was Adds to my watch list) [CANSLIM] Unemployment 4.3% Re: [CANSLIM] RENG (was Adds to my watch list) Re: [CANSLIM] NASDAQ H&S pattern [CANSLIM] Some CS movers Re: [CANSLIM] Gencor - GX [CANSLIM] Another mover Re: [CANSLIM] Gencor - GX - I missed it. Re: [CANSLIM] NASDAQ H&S pattern Re: [CANSLIM] The Great Boom [CANSLIM] TXCC - breaking out..... [CANSLIM] The Great Boom Ahead Re: [CANSLIM] The Great Boom Ahead [CANSLIM] Trading/Investing. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Date: Wed, 6 May 1998 19:29:38 -0400 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] opinion on ICIX Off its highs by 27%, good RS still but EPS of 1, up/down a negative at 0.6, and both A/D and Timeliness at C - not a good CS candidate, IMHO. Tom W - -----Original Message----- From: Anindo Majumdar To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Date: Thursday, May 07, 1998 1:11 PM Subject: [CANSLIM] opinion on ICIX > great revenue growth but stock has been declining steadily. OBV/MF has >declined with the price. Except on today's chart OBV has gone up from - - ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 6 May 1998 19:42:08 -0400 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Transwitch TXCC I would consider it too extended for a fresh buy, but had I spotted it in the 12 to 13 range, I likely would be holding it here for now. The trailing PE at 999 is pretty intimidating, but it only became profitable for the past three qtrs. Its projected PE for 1998 is 56, and for 1999 is 28. It looks to have several years of easy year to year comparisons. Tom W - -----Original Message----- From: James Adams To: Canslim Date: Thursday, May 07, 1998 10:46 AM Subject: [CANSLIM] Transwitch TXCC >Comments Please on TXCC > >Canslim Criteria from IBD 5/7/98 > EPS=72; RS=92; A/D=A > Industry: : ELEC COMP-SEMIC 28 of 78 - - ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 7 May 1998 17:16:30 -0700 (PDT) From: Anindo Majumdar Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] opinion on ICIX > > Off its highs by 27%, good RS still but EPS of 1, up/down a negative > at 0.6, and both A/D and Timeliness at C - not a good CS candidate, > IMHO. What is Up/Down and where do you get this info ? Is it the same Up/Down available in Big Charts. As for EPS all these CLECS have negative EPS as they continue spending money on the network infrastructure buildout. What is your opinion on YHOO and ATHM ? Thanks Anindo > > Tom W > > -----Original Message----- > From: Anindo Majumdar > To: canslim@lists.xmission.com > Date: Thursday, May 07, 1998 1:11 PM > Subject: [CANSLIM] opinion on ICIX > > > > great revenue growth but stock has been declining steadily. OBV/MF > has > >declined with the price. Except on today's chart OBV has gone up from > > > > - > > - - ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 6 May 1998 20:11:32 -0400 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Screening result. HCFP - despite my personal aversion to both medical and financial stocks, this one is tempting. Their announcment that they may form a REIT only adds to this, as REITs are one of the "safe havens" if growth slows or even goes negative, and medical related REITS are the best of that category in those conditions. EMC - I'm not convinced the damage to the storage devices group is over, and this one looks like it has had a good run and may be rolling over. I certainly would want to see it base out at a minimum before acting on it. PGEX - another nice chart and CS elements. I suspect the "I" and mngmt holdings may be in error per DGO data, and will ask them to double check as their data shows 68% mngmt (possible), funds 43% and banks 29% (also possible, of the 3.7 mil float) but ADV also shows 263K which is likely accurate but unlikely if only about 1.1 mil shares were left freely trading in the float. Tom W - -----Original Message----- From: Chao, Chih Yu To: 'CANSLIM' Date: Wednesday, May 06, 1998 1:13 PM Subject: [CANSLIM] Screening result. >The followings are my monthly screening result: > HCFP, EMC, PGEX - - ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 6 May 1998 20:27:06 -0400 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] On Management holdings (was Adds to my watch list) I look for management to have a committment to the company to making it excel and prosper, without any sneaky deals for short term gains. When management has a 25 or 30% ownership stake, it's highly likely that the "movers and shakers" have a substantial part of their personal net worth in the form of restricted stock. That means, to me, they pay attention to how the stock is trading, and are sensitive to shareholder issues. If management only owns 5 or 6%, it suggests to me that management has already converted a lot of their original shares into cash, and are no longer dependent on the future of the company. Much of their interest in the company may lie in stock options, which cost them nothing, and their salary and perks, which they may be tempted to raise. If management owns over 50% of the voting shares, there is the ever present danger that they will treat it as their personal fiefdom. I saw this happen a few years ago with a company headquartered here locally. The CEO and family had total control, and despite ever increasing revenues, the company barely made a profit, and it was not growing. Why? because the "true" owners of the company were taking bonuses and benefits that closely matched the increased profits every year. In that case, after several years of litigation initiated by the shareholders, the court system finally ousted the CEO and all his relatives. But it was costly and took time. Thus, any management ownership over about 30% I look at more carefully. Won't stop me buying it necessarily, just one more thing to try and check out. But if I see revenues and earnings increasing steadily and consistently, I generally figure the mngmt team is running it as a business, not as their playground. Many may describe Bill Gates as a tyrant, and certainly he still owns enough shares of MSFT to affect the market even after all that he has already sold. But if you look at how the company has prospered, you can't dislike it solely because of "too much insider ownership". Granted, today his percentage ownership is nothing like it has been, but it has prospered for years. There are limits to having too much of a "good thing". Tom W - -----Original Message----- From: Patrick Wahl To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Date: Thursday, May 07, 1998 11:18 AM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Adds to my watch list > From: "Tom Worley" > To: > As to my upper limit, I would consider any mngmt ownership over about > 30% or so something I take conscious note of, and weigh with many > other considerations. But I won't overlook a stock that has mngmt > ownership over 50%. I probably would pass on a company with 65 or 70% > mngmt ownership, that's getting a little rich for my blood. Nor am I What is the thinking behind this? I always thought management ownership was good - they had an interest in getting the stock price up. - - - - ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 6 May 1998 20:30:03 -0400 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] New Subscriber Introduction Welcome to the group, Deral. I apologize in being tardy at saying hello. Good luck with the quick lubes and car wash enterprise, let me know if you open in Miami, FL Tom W - -----Original Message----- From: Deral Rackley To: CANSLIM Date: Tuesday, May 05, 1998 5:15 PM Subject: [CANSLIM] New Subscriber Introduction >Hello! I'm Deral Rackley, a new subscriber to the CANSLIM list; but not >started a chain of quick lubes and car washes with the first business >opening in June of this year. My son is may partner is this endeavor. > - - ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 6 May 1998 20:55:23 -0400 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] opinion on ICIX Up/down ratio is a simple ratio using a trailing 50 day period (at DGO, it varies from site to site) by adding the total volume on up days and dividing the total volume on down days. There is no weighing of the magnitude of "up" or "down". Unchanged days are not counted. There is no standard measure of this that I am aware of, each site may calculate it a little differently (one of the reasons I hope we can get a good "group rate" for DGO, at least then we can all have the chance of using a common, CANSLIM based, site where we will all be talking the same language at least on cs type data). I agree that telecom cos historically have poor earnings, if any. But I recognize that earnings growth is a big part of most stocks performance. When there are losses, and those losses are even growing, it now steers me away. I have neither the time nor the skills to ultimate assess which cos have the smarter management, better application of marketing dollars, niftier technology, deeper capital pockets to survive the cutthroat competition for mkt share, etc. But I have learned from experience that the cos that not only are profitable, but whose profits are growing, are far more likely to at least survive in any shakeout than those who are blowing thru their capital, and may run out of money at some point, leaving them vulnerable to a cut rate take over. And on this one, along with all my prior comments on management ownership along with funds ownership, as well as what WON and Ryan also say on the same subject, I note that management has apparently voted with their wallets, and per DGO only own 5%. And the funds, who are able to bail anytime, own 54%. This too would be a major red flag to me. Tom W - -----Original Message----- From: Anindo Majumdar To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Date: Thursday, May 07, 1998 8:16 PM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] opinion on ICIX >> >> Off its highs by 27%, good RS still but EPS of 1, up/down a negative >> at 0.6, and both A/D and Timeliness at C - not a good CS candidate, >> IMHO. > > What is Up/Down and where do you get this info ? Is it the same Up/Down >available in Big Charts. As for EPS all these CLECS have negative EPS as >they continue spending money on the network infrastructure buildout. What >is your opinion on YHOO and ATHM ? > >Thanks >Anindo >> >> Tom W >> >> -----Original Message----- >> From: Anindo Majumdar >> To: canslim@lists.xmission.com >> Date: Thursday, May 07, 1998 1:11 PM >> Subject: [CANSLIM] opinion on ICIX >> >> >> > great revenue growth but stock has been declining steadily. OBV/MF >> has >> >declined with the price. Except on today's chart OBV has gone up from >> >> >> >> - >> >> > > >- > - - ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 6 May 1998 21:09:15 -0400 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] Fw: Finance - Morning Call @ 05/07/98 Here's some forecasts for tomorrow's Employment Report which I borrowed from infobeat. Should the overall unemployment rate rise from the 4.7% level, or should new jobs creation drop under about 180K to 200K, then I think a lot of the existing fear of a May Fed rate hike will dissipate, and a consolidation at worst and a new rally at best will result. I don't have a good feel for what's likely, the most recent data shows the latest weekly new claims lower than expected, but there was also a sharp increase in layoffs. I will no longer be helping the overall unemployment rate, and will do my piece of damage to labor costs. Frankly, I don't even mind. Certainly, I don't expect to see us repeat last month's report, which showed a sharp drop in jobs creation. On the other hand, I don't think I will be that surprised if the total jobs created comes in well under 275K. Tom W - -----Original Message----- From: InfoBeat > FRIDAY: > ** 8:30 a.m. ET: April non-farm payrolls. Consensus estimate: 275,000. Prior report: -36,000. > ** 8:30 a.m. ET: April unemployment rate. Consensus estimate: 4.7%. Prior report: 4.7%. > ** 8:30 a.m. ET: April hourly earnings. Consensus estimate: $12.67. Prior report: $12.63. > ** 8:30 a.m. ET: April workweek. Consensus estimate: 34.8 hours. Prior report: 34.7 hours. - - ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 7 May 1998 21:11:46 -0400 From: "James Adams" Subject: [CANSLIM] Gencor - GX Comments please on Gencor (GX) AMEX IBD 5/7/98 = 99/98/A Price Info: Close 20 Change +7/8 Change +4.58% Volume 61,700 ADV: 35,863 52 Week High 19.870 52 Week Low 5.430 Zack's Industry: MACH-THRML PRO Earnings Growth Rates (Last 5 Yrs/FY98/FY99/Next 5 Yrs) Company 58.10% 69.00% 16.30% 13.50% Industry 37.90% 43.40% 17.90% 16.30% Earnings Per Share - Quarterly Results FY (9/98) FY (9/97) FY (9/96) 1st Qtr $0.18 $0.04 $-0.10 2nd Qtr $0.41 $0.21 $0.18 3rd Qtr NA $0.24 $0.23 4th Qtr NA $0.25 $0.09 Total $0.59 $0.74 $0.40 Fundamental Data P/E 18.5 Market Cap. 198.8 Mil Earnings/Share 1.08 # Shares Out. 9.9 Mil Dividend/Share 0.03 Yield 0.10 Sales $229 Mil Income $11 Mil Net Profit Margin 5% Return on Equity 50% Debt/Equity Ratio 4.08 Revenue/Share $23.05 Earnings/Share $1.08 Book Value/Share $2.13 News: May 6 GX REPEAT: Gencor Industries Posts $0.41 vs. $0.21 2Q EPS May 4 GX Splits Calendar: Gencor Industries stock splits after market close today. May 4 GX Gencor Industries Inc. Posts $0.41 vs. $0.21 2Q EPS; Revs. Up 26% May 4 GX Gencor Announces Record Second Quarter 1998 Earnings Apr 9 GX Gencor Industries Inc. Sets Two-for-One Split James Adams......................Maysville, KY USA http://www.cris.com/~jimadams/ Internet Pager 1343361@pager.mirabilis.com - - ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 07 May 1998 21:36:41 -0400 From: Jack Lykins Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] New Subscriber Introduction Hello, Deral I am also new to this group. I have beens spending most of my "free time" reading WON's book, reading IBD and trying to keep up with the E-Mails. The process seems very straight foward, but learning the little things will be the difference but success and failure. Did you by chance live in or near Maysville, ky in the early to mid 70's??? Jack Lykins Deral Rackley wrote: > Hello! I'm Deral Rackley, a new subscriber to the CANSLIM list; but > not > new to O'Neal's stock trading strategy. i have read his book "How to > Make > Money in Stocks" several times over the last four years, and I "pick > up" > something new every time I read it. > > I have used the CANSLIM approach with reasonable success over this > period > of time. I am sure that I will learn new techniques and gain useful > ideas > from this group. I hope that I will have something usefull to share > with > you as well over time. > > As for a brief bio, I am 54 and have recently redirected my career > from > that of a corporate slave to an budding entrepreneur. After spending > about > thirty years working in such areas as manufacturing engineering, > managing > new plant start-ups, and in international business development; I have > > started a chain of quick lubes and car washes with the first business > opening in June of this year. My son is may partner is this endeavor. > > I look forward to sharing information this group and learning about > "making > money in the stock market" while having fun doing it. > > - - - ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 6 May 1998 22:26:39 -0400 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Gencor - GX James, the only "true" CANSLIM negative I spot is the up/down ratio is only 0.9. Otherwise, appears to have all the necessary CS elements for success. Of course, my "personal" bias against AMEX would show, this stock deserves a grownup exchange. I also noted that its Q1 (ending Dec) for two consecutive years was its weakest. Don't know why this would be, maybe typical of its industry, maybe something else?? In addition to the IBD data, Timeliness is A, float is 3.4 mil, funds are 2%, banks 0%, and management 29%. GRS is only 54, but it is sitting #1 in the group. Tom W - -----Original Message----- From: James Adams To: Canslim Date: Thursday, May 07, 1998 9:10 PM Subject: [CANSLIM] Gencor - GX >Comments please on Gencor (GX) AMEX > >IBD 5/7/98 = 99/98/A > Price Info: Close 20 Change +7/8 Change +4.58% > Volume 61,700 ADV: 35,863 > 52 Week High 19.870 > 52 Week Low 5.430 > Zack's Industry: MACH-THRML PRO > >Earnings Growth Rates (Last 5 Yrs/FY98/FY99/Next 5 Yrs) > Company 58.10% 69.00% 16.30% 13.50% > Industry 37.90% 43.40% 17.90% 16.30% >Earnings Per Share - Quarterly Results > FY (9/98) FY (9/97) FY (9/96) >1st Qtr $0.18 $0.04 $-0.10 >2nd Qtr $0.41 $0.21 $0.18 >3rd Qtr NA $0.24 $0.23 >4th Qtr NA $0.25 $0.09 > Total $0.59 $0.74 $0.40 > >Fundamental Data > P/E 18.5 Market Cap. 198.8 Mil > Earnings/Share 1.08 # Shares Out. 9.9 Mil > Dividend/Share 0.03 Yield 0.10 > Sales $229 Mil Income $11 Mil > Net Profit Margin 5% > Return on Equity 50% > Debt/Equity Ratio 4.08 > Revenue/Share $23.05 > Earnings/Share $1.08 > Book Value/Share $2.13 > >News: > May 6 GX REPEAT: Gencor Industries Posts $0.41 vs. $0.21 2Q EPS > May 4 GX Splits Calendar: Gencor Industries stock splits after market >close today. > May 4 GX Gencor Industries Inc. Posts $0.41 vs. $0.21 2Q EPS; Revs. Up >26% > May 4 GX Gencor Announces Record Second Quarter 1998 Earnings > Apr 9 GX Gencor Industries Inc. Sets Two-for-One Split > >James Adams......................Maysville, KY USA >http://www.cris.com/~jimadams/ >Internet Pager 1343361@pager.mirabilis.com > > >- > - - ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 7 May 1998 19:56:17 -0800 From: "Patrick Wahl" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Gencor - GX > From: "James Adams" > To: "Canslim" > Comments please on Gencor (GX) AMEX All the stats look good, but the chart has gone straight up without a break, doubling in a few months. I think you need to see it take a rest for a while before getting in. A strong stock like this may not base too long, but it does need to base at least a little bit. - - ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 7 May 1998 23:27:52 -0400 From: "James Adams" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Gencor - GX From: Tom Worley wrote: >In addition to the IBD data, Timeliness is A, float is 3.4 mil, funds >are 2%, banks 0%, and management 29%. GRS is only 54, but it is >sitting #1 in the group. Tom and Patrick, thanks for the additional info and input. After sending the message, I was wondering how the split on May 5 would skew the numbers, if at all. James Adams......................Maysville, KY USA http://www.cris.com/~jimadams/ Internet Pager 1343361@pager.mirabilis.com - - ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 7 May 1998 20:40:04 -0800 From: "Patrick Wahl" Subject: [CANSLIM] NASDAQ H&S pattern If anyone wants to see a head and shoulders pattern, take a look at the last 8 weeks or so of the nasdaq index. For anyone who doesn't know the idea behind these things, the thinking is that an uptrend finally stops and there is a bit of a price drop, then people who feel they were left behind jump in, pushing the stock/index to higher highs, then there is another decline, more people jump in on the next price dip, but the subsequent rally isn't very strong and the price can't get back to the old high. This is a bearish pattern. I don't know if this will turn out to mean anything, but something to keep in mind. - - ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 8 May 1998 11:02:15 +0300 From: "David S. Pinhasik" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Adds to my watch list >And despite a down day, all four of my new "picks" (KTIE, NEWH, RENG, >SNHY) >Tom W > Tom, I was looking at RENG on DGO, and I like the chart and everything about it, except the large losses in the 3 quarters preceding the latest one. How come this didn't bother you? BTW, is this a real C&H? David - - ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 7 May 1998 05:46:30 -0400 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] RENG (was Adds to my watch list) You must be looking at a different chart than I am on RENG, as DGO shows 8 consecutive profitable qtrs, as well as profitable for the past three years. I don't consider this a c&h, it's tough to get such on a low priced stock. It just looks to me like a consolidation of its recent move to 6.31, stayed within 25% or so of its high, and now moving further. Tom W - -----Original Message----- From: David S. Pinhasik To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Date: Friday, May 08, 1998 4:02 AM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Adds to my watch list >>And despite a down day, all four of my new "picks" (KTIE, NEWH, RENG, >>SNHY) > >>Tom W >> > >Tom, >I was looking at RENG on DGO, and I like the chart and everything about it, >except the large losses in the 3 quarters preceding the latest one. How come >this didn't bother you? BTW, is this a real C&H? > >David > > >- > - - ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 08 May 1998 08:27:32 -0400 From: Ari Lawson Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Gencor - GX What about GX's 408% debt.? - - ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 08 May 1998 08:33:24 -0400 From: Ari Lawson Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] RENG (was Adds to my watch list) Tom i'm looking at DGO,RENG doesn't show 8 possitive quarters. - - ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 8 May 1998 05:48:54 -0700 From: "Ken Davidson" Subject: [CANSLIM] Unemployment 4.3% 5/8/98 5:40 est. Just before the release of the unemployment report Globex S & P 500 futures were up a strong +5.70 points. The unemployment rate fell to 4.3% from 4.7% last month. This number is the lowest since February 1970. There were 262,000 jobs created. Hourly earnings were in line with expectations up .04 cents or .03%. The 30 year Bond was neutral before the release but then fell about -13/32nds afterwards. Globex futures After the release saw S & P 500 futures drop about -4.00 points but then immediately jumped back. Fifteen minutes after the release S & P 500 futures are only up about +2.00 points. Since the unemployment report was mixed with a good hourly earnings report the market will likely be digesting the news for awhile this morning. We'll report later on! Ken www.agoraoutlook.com The information contained in this commentary is based upon data that is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed, and subject to change without notice. All projections, forecasts, opinions, and track records cannot be guaranteed to equal our past performance. Persons reading this are responsible for their actions. Officers and employees of this publication may at times have a position in the securities mentioned, or related services. - - ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 08 May 1998 07:55:42 -0400 From: Kom Tukovinit Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] RENG (was Adds to my watch list) I think what David meant was that all the earnings in the past 4 quarters except the last one decreased from the quarters 12 months ago. And what Tom meant was, the company had positive earnings, despite the decrease for the comparable quarters, in the past 8 quarters. kom Tom Worley wrote: > You must be looking at a different chart than I am on RENG, as DGO > shows 8 consecutive profitable qtrs, as well as profitable for the > past three years. I don't consider this a c&h, it's tough to get such > on a low priced stock. It just looks to me like a consolidation of its > recent move to 6.31, stayed within 25% or so of its high, and now > moving further. > > Tom W > > -----Original Message----- > From: David S. Pinhasik > To: canslim@lists.xmission.com > Date: Friday, May 08, 1998 4:02 AM > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Adds to my watch list > > >>And despite a down day, all four of my new "picks" (KTIE, NEWH, > RENG, > >>SNHY) > > > >>Tom W > >> > > > >Tom, > >I was looking at RENG on DGO, and I like the chart and everything > about it, > >except the large losses in the 3 quarters preceding the latest one. > How come > >this didn't bother you? BTW, is this a real C&H? > > > >David > > > > > >- > > > > - - - ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 08 May 1998 08:06:13 -0400 From: Kom Tukovinit Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] NASDAQ H&S pattern My 2 cents, On the other hand, a perfect H&S formation would have the second rally (head) with lower volume than the first, which we are not seeing. Also, H&S formation can be either 1) trend reversing pattern, which Patrick is warning about, or 2) consolidation pattern and just a pause from the uptrend. Since the H&S trend line is slightly below the 50 day average, I guess if the NADAQ breaks below that, it's time to totally bail. Otherwise, we can only watch... kom Patrick Wahl wrote: > If anyone wants to see a head and shoulders pattern, take a look at > the last 8 weeks or so of the nasdaq index. For anyone who doesn't > know the idea behind these things, the thinking is that an uptrend > finally stops and there is a bit of a price drop, then people who > feel they were left behind jump in, pushing the stock/index to higher > highs, then there is another decline, more people jump in on the next > price dip, but the subsequent rally isn't very strong and the price > can't get back to the old high. This is a bearish pattern. I don't > know if this will turn out to mean anything, but something to keep in > mind. > > > > - - - ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 08 May 1998 11:23:14 -0400 From: Al French Subject: [CANSLIM] Some CS movers Some Canslim candidates that are showing life as of 10:45 this morning are: AMCN BBBY CTXS CMED CMSX GLBL GLYT HELE LBOR MCRS MEDQ NOBH NRVH SDII TMBS By CS candidates I mean the criteria are not strictly applied, but I consider them close enough to keep an eye on. Some may have large float, high "I," GRS not there now, chart patterns not yet ready, etc. Al French - - ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 08 May 1998 11:29:08 -0400 From: Craig Griffin Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Gencor - GX Ari, At 08:27 AM 5/8/98 -0400, you wrote: >What about GX's 408% debt.? I personally like to see debt under 30% - especially in high tech companies. O'Neil says that a lower debt to equity value is better - all other things being equal. But he does not make it a big focus of Canslim. He also says that companies who are reducing long term debt will frequently have increased earnings as a result. GX had a breakout on 2/3/98 from a nice 8 or 9 week base. The pivot point (buy point) was 10 5/8. If you had ignored debt and bought there, you would be well rewarded. I guess you could say if the stock is breaking out and all of the other CS elements are in place, then the market must have factored in the debt service / cash flow. Therefore, the market is saying the company is worth a new high in price - who are you to argue ... But - the risk is definitely higher with a company like this. In general a company with a higher debt load is even more interest rate sensitive than other companies. Hope this helps. Regards, Craig - - ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 08 May 1998 11:40:42 -0400 From: Al French Subject: [CANSLIM] Another mover Whoops! I forgot to include USNA on my list of CS candidates with life this morning. Al French - - ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 8 May 1998 11:18:21 -0400 From: "James Adams" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Gencor - GX - I missed it. GX already up 2 1/2 and above ADV at 11:17 edt. James Adams......................Maysville, KY USA http://www.cris.com/~jimadams/ Internet Pager 1343361@pager.mirabilis.com - - ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 8 May 1998 11:48:41 EDT From: DCSquires Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] NASDAQ H&S pattern In a message dated 98-05-07 23:42:26 EDT, you write: << If anyone wants to see a head and shoulders pattern, take a look at the last 8 weeks or so of the nasdaq index. For anyone who doesn't know the idea behind these things, the thinking is that an uptrend finally stops and there is a bit of a price drop, then people who feel they were left behind jump in, pushing the stock/index to higher highs, then there is another decline, more people jump in on the next price dip, but the subsequent rally isn't very strong and the price can't get back to the old high. This is a bearish pattern. I don't know if this will turn out to mean anything, but something to keep in mind. >> When identifing H&S patterns one should make note that these patterns have had a strong tendency to fail in the great bull market we are having..........Definetly worth watching though! Of cousre, the formation of the pattern itself does signal general weakness. DSquires - - ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 08 May 1998 10:22:57 -0600 From: jeff@scrooge.csd.sdl.usu.edu (Jeff Salisbury) Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] The Great Boom On May 6, 2:52pm, Robert Gammon wrote: > Subject: [CANSLIM] The Great Boom > Sometime ago, the John Hancock graphs from Harry Dent's book > "The Great Boom Ahead" were posted the the WWW site at > www.xmission.com/~mcjathan/canslim. I requested and received > the updated copy of the graph that compares birth rates (aged > to 47-49 years) to inflation adjusted stock market. The graph > comes from Harry Dent's latest work "The Roaring 2000s". > This time the graph is updated thru June97, and uses the DJIA > instead of S&P500 as the comparison. The correlation is still > extremely high even with this much maligned index. > > I have access to a color scanner, and can upload a new GIF to > xmission if anyone is interested, Jeff???? > >-- End of excerpt from Robert Gammon Robert, By all means, please upload the file. Instructions are below. Don't hesitate to contact me if you have any questions or problems... Regards, Jeff - --------------------------------------------------- Everyone, >From time to time, you may wish to share large files with our group (i.e. gif, jpeg, spreadsheets, etc). Our list is configured to reject large postings (even if they are properly encoded) since the sheer volume has caused problems in the past. As an alternative, we have provided an anonymous ftp site. To provide your file to the group, please follow these instructions: 1. Send your file to: "ftp://ftp.xmission.com/pub/users/m/mcjathan/incoming/". See ftp instructions below. 2. Send mail to me directly at "owner-canslim@xmission.com" telling me the name of the file that you uploaded. I will move the file from the incoming directory, to the canslim directory where people will be able to download your file. 3. After I notify you that the file has been moved to the canslim directory, you should send an email to the canslim group describing your file, and its URL (i.e. ftp://ftp.xmission.com/pub/users/m/mcjathan/GreatBoom.gif). Although this may seem unwieldy at first, it really isn't too bad and it solves more problems than it creates. You should note that I do not monitor my email on the weekends as closely as during the week. Therefore, steps 2-3 may take longer over a weekend. Best Regards, Jeff Salisbury =========================================================================== FTP Instructions: 1. Using Netscape, go to the URL: "ftp://ftp.xmission.com/pub/users/m/mcjathan/incoming/". 2. On the Netscape "File" menu, select "Upload File..." This will open a file selection widget on your hard-drive. Select the file you wish to upload and hit the "Ok" button. At this point, your file will be uploaded. 3. Eventhough your file has been uploaded, you will not be able to see the file in your netscape browser. The reason for this is that the "incoming" directory is set to write-only for security reasons. - - ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 8 May 1998 12:47:00 -0400 From: "James Adams" Subject: [CANSLIM] TXCC - breaking out..... Transwitch TXCC is up 1.00 on 3x adv.....at 12:46 edt. James Adams......................Maysville, KY USA http://www.cris.com/~jimadams/ Internet Pager 1343361@pager.mirabilis.com - - ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 08 May 98 16:32:20 -0500 From: "Robert Gammon" Subject: [CANSLIM] The Great Boom Ahead Howdy, The file I mentioned earlier this week has been uploaded to the xmission.com WWW site. The link to the file is http://www.xmission.com/~mcjathan/canslim/GreatBoom2.gif This is from Harry Dent's second book on the economy and the demographic effects on it. The scan has been corrected to give colors that look OK on the WWW AND also print well on a laser printer. It is sized for a 1024x768 display. Prices for the index used are up to date as of June 97, where the previous version was updated through sometime in 1993. The population data has been adjusted to account for immigration statistics. Again, the correlation of the index to the market index is AMAZING. It suggests that we may NOT have a recession, or a pullback of any significance in the market until sometime AFTER 2008. if the correlation holds, we may see a DJIA of 21,500 or more, but by 2020, we'll be back under 10,000. *----------------------------------------------------* Robert Gammon My opinions are my own. rgammon@micro.ti.com In no way am I representing 281-274-3299 voice the views of my employer. 281-274-2279 fax *----------------------------------------------------* - - ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 08 May 1998 17:52:26 -0400 From: Craig Griffin Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] The Great Boom Ahead Robert, Very very neat. Thank you for taking the time to scan it and adjust it and put it on the web for us to see! Best regards, Craig At 04:32 PM 5/8/98 -0500, you wrote: >Howdy, > The file I mentioned earlier this week has been >uploaded to the xmission.com WWW site. The link to >the file is > >http://www.xmission.com/~mcjathan/canslim/GreatBoom2.gif > >This is from Harry Dent's second book on the economy >and the demographic effects on it. The scan has been >corrected to give colors that look OK on the WWW AND >also print well on a laser printer. It is sized for >a 1024x768 display. Prices for the index used are >up to date as of June 97, where the previous version >was updated through sometime in 1993. The population >data has been adjusted to account for immigration >statistics. Again, the correlation of the index to >the market index is AMAZING. It suggests that we may >NOT have a recession, or a pullback of any significance >in the market until sometime AFTER 2008. if the correlation >holds, we may see a DJIA of 21,500 or more, but by 2020, >we'll be back under 10,000. > >*----------------------------------------------------* >Robert Gammon My opinions are my own. >rgammon@micro.ti.com In no way am I representing >281-274-3299 voice the views of my employer. >281-274-2279 fax >*----------------------------------------------------* > > > >- > > - - ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 08 May 1998 18:57:47 -0400 From: Connie Mack Rea Subject: [CANSLIM] Trading/Investing. - --------------3FCD46856802B8BBEE3F15F7 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=us-ascii Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit Members-- A nice site to visit is http://e-analytics.com/sysind.htm. It is a good technical site with everything about the market except good charting. Several have asked me about my trading philosophy and were taken aback or were unbelieving that I use so few and so little sophisticated indicators. While reviewing the e-analytics site, which I and others have previously pointed out as a good site for definitions of indicators, I had time to read some sections that were passed over before. I've excerpted some interesting passages that apply to traders and investors. Your browser may not pick up all my bold and underling, but I'll set the format anyway just in case. Pitfalls of Trading Systems and Technical Analysis Indicators Trading systems are supposed to be objective and mechanical. They take the intuition out of trading. Buy when the system tells you to and sell when the system tells you to. The problem is that there are not a lot of good trading systems out there. At my company, Equity Analytics Ltd., we have created some very good systems. However, they are created for some institutions to take advantage of arbitrage opportunities, or tricky derivative strategies. They are not at all suitable for the average trader. We've tested many of the systems that are advertised in some of the trade publications. We haven't found one that works well. The result is that the trader follows a system and does what he is supposed to do. However, the system is poor to begin with. Traders tend to lose objectivity when using technical analysis indicators. The trader is not able to remain objective and the subjectivity of using the indicator overwhelms him. I think it has to do with a compulsion many traders feel to have to trade. They then tend to subvert their indicators by trading when the signal is not entirely clear. Traders have a tendency to test their trading systems and technical analysis indicators on an insufficient amount of data. Analysts need to test trading systems and technical analysis indicators on a wide array of data in different types of trading markets. Additionally, many traders and analysts don't forward test their trading systems and technical analysis indicators in real time. They is a rush to trade based on insufficient back-testing and forward-testing. Thus, it is really hope that they are trading on and not a sound, valid basis. Many traders fail to incorporate sound risk management techniques in their trading systems. Additionally, many traders fail to incorporate stop loss orders with their initial orders when using technical analysis indicators only. Traders also tend to over-optimize their trading systems. They start asking the what-if question and back-test the trading system with different parameters. Of course they are going to trade with the parameters which generate the highest amount of wins. However, in real time these over-optimized systems rarely perform well. Another trap traders fall into is to use too many technical analysis indicators. Find the few that work consistently well for you and go with them. I find the time tested technical analysis indicators to be the best. However, there is no reason you won't find some new indicator that works consistently well for you. Just make sure that you forward-test it in real time. Conclusions I have always considered speculative trading more of an art than a science. The best traders I've ever seen use technical analysis indicators and intuition. However, despite their intuition, one thing common to all of them is that whether they can articulate them or not, they all have a set of well defined rules they trade by. They consistently generate very nice profits. If you are considering buying technical analysis software be very skeptical of systems that advertise tremendous results. They have probably been over-optimized to show excellent back-tested results and won't work when you try to use them. Of course the company will have a whole list of reasons why it isn't working well at that particular point in time. However, excuses don't do you any good when you're losing hard earned money. Drawdowns are money out of your pocket. You will never make it back. Last, what works for one trader may not work for another trader. If it works for you - that's all that counts. Connie Mack - --------------3FCD46856802B8BBEE3F15F7 Content-Type: text/html; charset=us-ascii Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit Members--

A nice site to visit is http://e-analytics.com/sysind.htm.  It is a good technical site with everything about the market except good charting.  Several have asked me about my trading philosophy and were taken aback or were unbelieving that I use so few and so little sophisticated indicators.

While reviewing the e-analytics site, which I and others have previously pointed out as a good site for definitions of indicators, I had time to read some sections that were passed over before.  I've excerpted some interesting passages that apply to traders and investors.

Your browser may not pick up all my bold and underling, but I'll set the format anyway just in case.
 

Pitfalls of Trading Systems and Technical Analysis Indicators

Trading systems are supposed to be objective and mechanical. They take the
intuition out of trading. Buy when the system tells you to and sell when the
system tells you to. The problem is that there are not a lot of good trading
systems out there. At my company, Equity Analytics Ltd., we have created some
very good systems. However, they are created for some institutions to take
advantage of arbitrage opportunities, or tricky derivative strategies. They are not
at all suitable for the average trader. We've tested many of the systems that are
advertised in some of the trade publications. We haven't found one that works
well. The result is that the trader follows a system and does what he is supposed
to do. However, the system is poor to begin with.

Traders tend to lose objectivity when using technical analysis indicators. The
trader is not able to remain objective and the subjectivity of using the indicator
overwhelms him. I think it has to do with a compulsion many traders feel to have
to trade. They then tend to subvert their indicators by trading when the signal is
not entirely clear.

Traders have a tendency to test their trading systems and technical analysis
indicators on an insufficient amount of data. Analysts need to test trading systems
and technical analysis indicators on a wide array of data in different types of
trading markets. Additionally, many traders and analysts don't forward test their
trading systems and technical analysis indicators in real time. They is a rush to
trade based on insufficient back-testing and forward-testing. Thus, it is really
hope that they are trading on and not a sound, valid basis.

Many traders fail to incorporate sound risk management techniques in their
trading systems. Additionally, many traders fail to incorporate stop loss orders
with their initial orders when using technical analysis indicators only.

Traders also tend to over-optimize their trading systems. They start asking the
what-if question and back-test the trading system with different parameters. Of
course they are going to trade with the parameters which generate the highest
amount of wins. However, in real time these over-optimized systems rarely
perform well.

Another trap traders fall into is to use too many technical analysis indicators.
Find the few that work consistently well for you and go with them. I find the
time tested technical analysis indicators to be the best. However, there is no
reason you won't find some new indicator that works consistently well for you.
Just make sure that you forward-test it in real time.

Conclusions

I have always considered speculative trading more of an art than a science.  The
best traders I've ever seen use technical analysis indicators and intuition.
However, despite their intuition, one thing common to all of them is that whether
they can articulate them or not, they all have a set of well defined rules they trade
by. They consistently generate very nice profits.

If you are considering buying technical analysis software be very skeptical of
systems that advertise tremendous results. They have probably been
over-optimized to show excellent back-tested results and won't work when you
try to use them. Of course the company will have a whole list of reasons why it
isn't working well at that particular point in time. However, excuses don't do you
any good when you're losing hard earned money. Drawdowns are money out of
your pocket. You will never make it back.

Last, what works for one trader may not work for another trader. If it works for
you - that's all that counts.

Connie Mack - --------------3FCD46856802B8BBEE3F15F7-- - - ------------------------------ End of canslim-digest V2 #230 ***************************** To unsubscribe to canslim-digest, send an email to "majordomo@xmission.com" with "unsubscribe canslim-digest" in the body of the message. For information on digests or retrieving files and old messages send "help" to the same address. Do not use quotes in your message.