From: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com (canslim-digest) To: canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Subject: canslim-digest V2 #248 Reply-To: canslim Sender: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Errors-To: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Precedence: bulk X-No-Archive: yes canslim-digest Thursday, May 21 1998 Volume 02 : Number 248 In this issue: Re: [CANSLIM] To those who subscribed to DailyGraphs Online Re: [CANSLIM] Where to look for cos. earnings and sales info? Re: [CANSLIM] Where to look for cos. earnings and sales info? [CANSLIM] OBV/MF: [CANSLIM] Technical Files Re: [CANSLIM] To those who subscribed to DailyGraphs Online Re: [CANSLIM] Where to look for cos. earnings and sales info? Re: [CANSLIM] CLST Breakout [CANSLIM] Short: MANU [CANSLIM] Was: Where to look for cos. earnings ...now Quotes Plus?? [CANSLIM] Buy on the dip? - DELL Re: [CANSLIM] CLST Breakout Re: [CANSLIM] Intraday Charts - Available Now at Quicken.com Re: [CANSLIM] Where to look for cos. earnings and sales info? [CANSLIM] Different Stock Trading Approaches [CANSLIM] Tom has left the group [CANSLIM] OBV/MF: Follow up on WDR Re: [CANSLIM] When now Quotes Plus?? Re: [CANSLIM] Buy on the dip? - DELL [CANSLIM] CANSLIM, "M", and DG alternatives (Part One) Re: [CANSLIM] Technical Files [CANSLIM] Re: "New" CANSLIM Re: [CANSLIM] CANSLIM, "M", and DG alternatives (Part One) Re: [CANSLIM] Missing Member was (market indicator) Re: [CANSLIM] What's left on my "watch" list [CANSLIM] Sex and OBV/MF. [CANSLIM] M, DG alternatives, CANSLIM (Part Two) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Date: Thu, 21 May 1998 14:46:29 +0200 From: Johan Van Houtven Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] To those who subscribed to DailyGraphs Online At 05:42 AM 21-05-98 GMT, you wrote: >On Wed, 20 May 1998 18:01:12 -0400, you wrote: > >:Notepad seems to work fine. >: >:-----Original Message----- >:From: Ari Lawson >:To: canslim@lists.xmission.com >:Date: Wednesday, May 20, 1998 3:22 PM >:Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] To those who subscribed to DailyGraphs Online >: >: >:>How do you look at 3 reg*.dat files? >:> >I "beta tested" DGO for a number of months, and my impression from the >beginning was that the application was not "state of the art" in a lot >of ways. It displays all the useful info that WON values. The charts >are evocative. However, it is not particularly "interactive", in that >you cannot do programable scans against their databases. It does not >surprise me that they neglected security in a substantial way. They >will no doubt have to rewrite those aspects of DGO, and soon. If there >are other ways of subscribing that do not record sensitive info on >your computer, you should use those. I would certainly complain to the >administrators of the program. Simply delete all reg*.dat files from the Daily Graphs directory after you have registered. That way at least your credit card info and passwords etc are removed from your PC. Real security freaks should use a professional delete program: something that does more that remove the pointer in the directory structure. I.e. overwrites the sectors on your harddisk were the files were located with 0000, FFFF, etc. But for most people this would be a bit far fetched/overdoing it a bit. Johan Van Houtven CLICK! N.V. / Wilrijk, Belgium - - ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 21 May 1998 15:01:38 +0200 From: Johan Van Houtven Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Where to look for cos. earnings and sales info? At 11:36 PM 20-05-98 EDT, you wrote: >Try this site for a lot of information: > >http://207.226.179.207/cgi-bin/getbigreport?Ticker=icui&Report=Get > >Have a wonderful Thursday. > >Surindra Surindra, Thanks! This is major goodie! For those that have not looked yet, remember to view the defenitions page at: http://207.226.179.207/definitions.html Lot's of references to WON/CANSLIM. How did you find it? Johan Van Houtven CLICK! N.V. / Wilrijk, Belgium - - ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 21 May 1998 06:36:52 -0700 (PDT) From: Rich Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Where to look for cos. earnings and sales info? Surindra: This site looks quite good. Thanks. rich - ---Ssingh wrote: > > Try this site for a lot of information: > > http://207.226.179.207/cgi-bin/getbigreport?Ticker=icui&Report=Get > > Have a wonderful Thursday. > > Surindra > > - > > _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - - ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 21 May 1998 09:43:48 -0400 From: Connie Mack Rea Subject: [CANSLIM] OBV/MF: Members-- I've four stocks from my scans. Of the four, only one needs to be examined this morning: WDR [ready for purchase], ROS, CARY, and INFM should be put on a watch list. I'll post comment on WDR when I have some time this morning. I've two sells on a limit. Will try to buy some WDR if it is still available should the sells get filled. Connie Mack - - ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 21 May 1998 09:51:08 -0400 From: Connie Mack Rea Subject: [CANSLIM] Technical Files Members-- I believe that I have sent all the technical files [Parts I, II]--about 50 sets as of this morning. If any member has not received his, please let me know. I am most grateful--and surprised--with your interest. Connie Mack - - ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 21 May 1998 09:46:29 -0400 From: Ari Lawson Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] To those who subscribed to DailyGraphs Online I have the new netscape comunicator.I can't seem to find the credit card info. of which you speak.I'm hoping it covers it with the 128 bit security that it has. - - ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 21 May 1998 10:06:37 -0400 (EDT) From: "Surindra J. Singh" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Where to look for cos. earnings and sales info? On Thu, 21 May 1998, Johan Van Houtven wrote: I was picking few numbers for Virginia lotto which nobody won last night and for the super ball, which was won by someone in wisconsin last night (Jackpot of about 195 million) and came up with a few numbers to consider. Then I added html:// in the beggining and added a few dots and came up with this url..... ;-) Surindra You wrote: > Thanks! This is major goodie! > For those that have not looked yet, remember to view the defenitions page at: > http://207.226.179.207/definitions.html > Lot's of references to WON/CANSLIM. > How did you find it? > > Johan Van Houtven > CLICK! N.V. / Wilrijk, Belgium > > > - > > - - ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 21 May 1998 07:12:14 -0700 (PDT) From: Tim Fisher Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] CLST Breakout Please read my posts more carefully. The last word was "A gamble overall". I meant it. I sure wouldn't consider buying it until the market looks a hell of a lot healthier. Even then there should be better candidates breaking out. Should be a sign to you that the breakouts lately are not among very strong companies. I would do my homework on CCSC if I were you. They announced a merger with Tellabs months ago and approved it 2 weeks ago! Not much upside potential there! As for the MMs, I am repeating what the co. announced in a press release, they felt someone was trying to manipulate the price. At 02:26 PM 5/21/98 +0200, you wrote: >Tim, > >CLST > >75 58 B (RS:58 ouch...) > >GRS: 26 (far from hot) > >Debt: 93% (Indeed a concern!) > >Funds 44% > >Chart: Eventhough it was up on 2x ADV it still bounced of the 50DMA from >below. And it came from under the 200DMA. > >I see no reason why a CANSLIMer would want to buy this stock now. What am I >missing here? I used to like your picks very much. As far as I can remember >the last few that you came up with (e.g. RXSD) are far from hot in MY book, >that is. Have you changed your scan or investment technique? This is NOT >critique, I just want to understand where you are comming from. > >You wrote: "I like how the volume shriveled up during the basing period >except for the obvious attempt by the MMs to manipulate it last week.?" >Your kiddin' me, right? > >Do you know how many MMs there are for CLST? About 76, with at least 20 >important ones. > >You want to look at something telecom related that MIGHT be worth watching? >Try CCSC. 94 95 A GRS:80 Timel: A Funds: 10% . Mgmt: 9% Debt: 0 ROE: 35% . >I do have a problem with last earnings and sales however. > >I said watching, NOT buying. > > > >At 06:38 PM 20-05-98 -0700, you wrote: >>Cellstar broke out 7% off its descending base today at 2x ADV after >>announcing a split. Makes my "Big Cap" CASLI scan. I like how the volume >>shriveled up during the basing period except for the obvious attempt by the >>MMs to manipulate it last week. High debt is a concern for me. MACD followed >>through, stochastic indicating overbought. A gamble overall. >> >>TELECOMM EQUIP Cellstar Corp >>TICKER CLST >>EXCHANGE NSDQ >>X SECTOR 10 >>X INDUSTRY 179 >>24WK PCHG% -3.76 >>TREND EPGR 28.79 >>QEPS 0/-4 135.00 >>QEPS -1/-5 81.18 >>QEPS -2/-6 509.20 >>QEPS -3/-7 548.60 >>TREND SALE 36.45 >>P/E 12M 16.00 >>ROI 26.86 >>D/Equity 93.25 >>PEG F1 0.43 >>% INSIDERS 48.21 >>% INSTITUT 41.91 >> >>Tim Fisher, 1995 President, Pacific Fishery Biologists >>Ore-ROCK-On Rockhounding Web Site >>PFB Information >>mailto:tim@OreRockOn.com >>WWW http://OreRockOn.com >> >> >>- >> >> > >Johan Van Houtven >CLICK! N.V. / Wilrijk, Belgium > > >- > > > Tim Fisher, 1995 President, Pacific Fishery Biologists Ore-ROCK-On Rockhounding Web Site PFB Information mailto:tim@OreRockOn.com WWW http://OreRockOn.com - - ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 21 May 1998 07:20:26 -0700 (PDT) From: Tim Fisher Subject: [CANSLIM] Short: MANU I have watched this one tumble from the recent spurt resulting fro their last earnings report. I can't short in my accounts but if I could, this looks like the bottom could be down around sub-40. Currently 50 from 66 in late April. I could never understand how a co. could carry a P/E of 150-200 for so long when others in the industry are more like 25-50. It's currently 99 and falling. Tim Fisher, 1995 President, Pacific Fishery Biologists Ore-ROCK-On Rockhounding Web Site PFB Information mailto:tim@OreRockOn.com WWW http://OreRockOn.com - - ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 21 May 1998 14:21:20 GMT From: musicant@autobahn.org (Dan Musicant) Subject: [CANSLIM] Was: Where to look for cos. earnings ...now Quotes Plus?? On Tue, 19 May 1998 23:15:14 -0400, you wrote: :Tom=20 : :You wrote: :... :>I then pushed my luck and tried for their :>earnings report on EDAC, and they didn't have any data, so not sure :>how comprehensive this site may be, but have bookmarked it and will :>try with other stocks. : :I guess that is one reason O'Neil can charge so much for the DGO data - :reliability, completeness, and availability. They make mistakes :occassionally - but they do a better job than most. And all of the data :one needs for CS is right there in one place and fast to access (not :scattered all over the web). Given that, and compared to some of the = other :premium services, I guess it is not SO high. No question it would be a :bargain for say $15 / month. : :As soon as I see Quote Plus' new release (ver 2) and work with it a = while - :I'll have a decision to make. : :Best Regards, :Craig Craig (and anyone), Just how long is 2.0 going to be in beta? Seems to me it's been one of those prolonged betas. Two more weeks, two more weeks, etc. Can someone comment/explain the situation? I've seen very different accounts of the cost of Quotes Plus. The current 1.1 vs. the upcoming 2.0. If you subscribe for 1.1, what happens when 2.0 comes out? Anyone? - - ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 21 May 1998 07:24:55 -0700 (PDT) From: Tim Fisher Subject: [CANSLIM] Buy on the dip? - DELL For you "dippers" out there how do you predict the bottom? I've been watching DELL come down from 98 last week to 87 this morning. I want back in (been on board for two 90% rides so far) for the next double but I don't know when to pull the trigger. Last time I called it at 70 but didn't pull the trigger until close to 80. Where's the bottom this time? Any suggestions? Tim Fisher, 1995 President, Pacific Fishery Biologists Ore-ROCK-On Rockhounding Web Site PFB Information mailto:tim@OreRockOn.com WWW http://OreRockOn.com - - ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 21 May 1998 16:24:42 +0200 From: Johan Van Houtven Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] CLST Breakout At 07:12 AM 21-05-98 -0700, you wrote: >I would do my homework on CCSC if I were you. They >announced a merger with Tellabs months ago and approved it 2 weeks ago! Not >much upside potential there! Indeed. Did not look at the news yet. Just found it while scanning. DGO doesn't mention this yet. Mmmmh, they should by now IMO. BTW, I'm not buying ANYTHING until M says buy again. Just daytrading a lot. Johan Van Houtven CLICK! N.V. / Wilrijk, Belgium - - ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 21 May 1998 09:25:52 -0500 From: Joe McKinley Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Intraday Charts - Available Now at Quicken.com Greg and the [CANSLIM] group: The quicken.com intraday charting is working this morning: http://www.quicken.com/investments/charts Bigcharts is still down. [OFF-TOPIC] Many things were affected by the Galaxy IV satellite - radio stations, CBS, paging systems (among the first to switch to another satellite yesterday). It'll be at least a week before a new satellite can take over if the current one can't be stabilized. The satellite is in a geosynchronous orbit, meaning it orbits's the earth as fast as the earth rotates, so it stays in the same relative position above the earth. It "appears" to be in a fixed position. From what I gather in the news, for large-scale communications purposes it (like the moon) also has to have the same side of it facing the earth at all times. Instead, it's rotating once every three minutes, and a backup system has also failed. For further details, see the May 20 articles at http://www.panamsat.com/cnew.htm Joe McKinley At 01:05 AM 5/21/98 EDT, you wrote: >Big Charts is down due to a technical difficulties. Any other places to go >for intraday charts. > >Thank you, > >Greg - - ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 21 May 1998 14:48:03 GMT From: musicant@autobahn.org (Dan Musicant) Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Where to look for cos. earnings and sales info? On Thu, 21 May 1998 15:01:38 +0200, you wrote: :At 11:36 PM 20-05-98 EDT, you wrote: :>Try this site for a lot of information: :> :>http://207.226.179.207/cgi-bin/getbigreport?Ticker=3Dicui&Report=3DGet :> :>Have a wonderful Thursday. :> :>Surindra : : :Surindra, : :Thanks! This is major goodie!=20 : :For those that have not looked yet, remember to view the defenitions = page at: : :http://207.226.179.207/definitions.html : :Lot's of references to WON/CANSLIM. : :How did you find it? : : : : :Johan Van Houtven :CLICK! N.V. / Wilrijk, Belgium : This is impressive site. Is there a home page? Or a page it makes sense to go to first (same thing?). Thanks. Dan - - ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 20 May 1998 22:04:10 -0400 From: Deral Rackley Subject: [CANSLIM] Different Stock Trading Approaches Jeffrey & Tom: I appreciate the input of both of you. We must remember that there are a number of very successful investors and traders using various approaches from value types like Warren Buffett to contrarians/technical types like Bernie Scheaffer & technical types like the folks at Cabot. Those of us we subscribe to a strict CANSLIM approach. Thats OK. Those of us who want to add TA to help in selection of entry & exit points. Thats OK. Those of us who want to use CANSLIM as just one of the tools in our stock investing took kit. Thats OK. I appreciate and respect the opinions and ideas of that both of you share. Please keep talking and try not to get personal. The sharing of different approaches and ideas helps to learn and broaden the scope of our knowledge. My thanks and best wishs to the both of you; Keep smiling! DERAL - - ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 21 May 1998 06:55:49 -0700 (PDT) From: Rich Subject: [CANSLIM] Tom has left the group Last night I received an e-mail from Tom Worley saying that he would no longer work on getting a group rate for DGO because he was unsubscribing. I didn't notice whether the posting was just to me or to the group as a whole but in looking over this mornings postings it seems that he has just left without telling the group. I thought people would like to know that he is gone. I wrote him and asked him to reconsider his actions but have not heard any reply. Ciao, Rich _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - - ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 21 May 1998 11:04:00 -0400 From: Connie Mack Rea Subject: [CANSLIM] OBV/MF: Follow up on WDR Members-- WDR is a nice clean stock to see how OBV/MF/EMA, MACD, and Stochastics are to be read. Pull up a 3-mos chart on BigCharts [believe someone posted that BC is down; my yesterday charts are available] with MF in the lower screen. Draw vertical trendline through the price high in the later part of March and extend it down through MF. I am using the 3-line EMA as origination points so as to smooth the trendline. Draw a second vertical through the price high in mid-April and extend it down throw MF. Draw a horizontal price trendline across the tops between the two verticals. Draw a second line across the 3-line EMA tops with the origination point at the second vertical; extend the line out to the edge. Draw one MF trendline, from where the first vertical crosses the MF, across the top just before the second vertical intersects the MF. Mark the next origination point from the top one day to the right of the second vertical; extend it to the edge of the chart; this line ought to flat. There is a very slight negative bias of the MF between the first and second vertical but essentially the MF is tracking price. It is the action to the right of the second vertical that is relevant. Price has declined from the EMA sell near the origination point for the second trendline; no valid EMA buy has been initiated until yesterday. MF has resisted the price decline: hence a positive divergence. The OBV trendlines are nearly identical to the MF. Nice positive divergence. The SloSto gave a buy Wednesday at an oversold area [20 or thereabouts]. MACD gave a buy yesterday. The EMA gave a 3/7-line buy [first and second level] yesterday. The Volume+ shows strong up volume the last two up days. The EMA gave a nice profitable exit in the middle of April, gave no false entry signals, and now gives a buy signal with sufficient other indicator confirmation. On the other hand, the SloSto gave two false signals on the way down. Always look for confirmation for any signal, whether buy or sell. E.g., an EMA signal has built in its own confirmation [3-line through the 10 and the 7-line through the 10]. Do not forget how rocketry fast is the 3/7/10. A confirmation in the Stochastics and the MACD will give you some assurance that the EMA is valid. Always remember, too, that you ought to run some back tests on a stock if you are seeing it appear for the first time on your scan. These back tests can be run with the indicators mentioned throughout; run any others that you like. If a stock has lied in the past [given false signals], it may, like a returned lover, lie again. But when you get an EMA signal at any level, take a look at the Fast/Slow Stochastic and the MACD. Just a brief word about two of the three stocks posted about earlier this morning. There is a last ten day or so positive divergence in INFM. The EMA has an upward bias for a first level buy. The MACD and SloSto look good. You might buy early if you want to be aggressive before the EMA gives more clarity. CARY gave an EMA buy several days ago so some of the juice is gone. The OBV/MF are tracking nicely. Both the SloSto and MACD turned buy. If I had to guess, I'd say that the turning of the SloSto and MACD to buy imply a further rise in price. It does, however, bother me some that the SloSto gave a sell about a week ago while the price was holding. Were the SloSto not giving its most recent buy, I'd hold off buying. Conclusion: The odds are in your favor. Connie Mack - - ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 21 May 1998 10:31:37 -0400 From: Craig Griffin Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] When now Quotes Plus?? Hi Dan, When will ver 2.0 be out? They keep saying soon, so 1 week to 3 months at a guess. What will it cost? I have seen varying rumours - all significantly lower than DG. HTH. Regards, Craig - - ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 21 May 1998 10:58:54 -0400 From: Craig Griffin Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Buy on the dip? - DELL Tim, At 07:24 AM 5/21/98 -0700, you wrote: >Where's the bottom this time? Any suggestions? Not my cup of tea (trying to call bottoms in short term price action). Certainly not-Canslim vanilla. But I have done some thinking about it over time and have a couple of thoughts in the last paragraph. First the more or less vanilla Canslim view (IMHO): It is up 30% from its last breakout (a few weeks back) and is down on big volume two days out of the last four since earnings were released (ran up into earnings). Just broke through the 10dma on the downside. The weekly chart shows "down arrows" on fairly big volume (close at the low of the bar - - turning the bar into an arrow). It could turn and run up after the sellers get out of the way - but I would not count on it. Looks like it wants to rest a bit here (distribution obvious on the weekly charts for the last two weeks). So, if you are looking for a long term hold, why not look for a base of at least 4 weeks (longer is better, but sometimes they don't rest that long) and buy the breakout of that base? That way at least you have a signal for a new advance (with a decent stop if the signal turns out to be false). Who knows, it might be starting a 6 month base, or a 3 week base (I have never found any way to predict these things). Now the trading view (AFAIK): If you just want a short term bottom you might look for some kind of trend line to form as it goes down and then a break upwards through that trend line. I have also found volume reversals, pipes, and candlestick reversals (there are several kinds) to be somewhat useful. Bollinger bands are also an interesting technique. Candlestick type reversals usually seem to be more reliable at the end of longer downtrends than Dell has yet developed - weeks or even months. Pipes and volume reversals seem to be equally reliable, regardless of the timeframe. Still - you are calling essentially a short term trend reversal with these techniques. Therefore - it probably should be looked at as a short term trade. HTH. Regards, Craig - - ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 21 May 1998 08:21:04 -0700 (PDT) From: dbphoenix Subject: [CANSLIM] CANSLIM, "M", and DG alternatives (Part One) When I was on AOL, I worked with a lot of newbies, not only to CS, but to investing as well. Still do. And the two most common mistakes they made (and a lot of people who should know better) were (1) to fail to distinguish between CS and IBD and (2) to fail to distinguish between what CS suggests and what CS requires. There are several different levels of CS investors. Without going into a lot of detail, the first is he (or she) who acquires whatever knowledge he has of the method through message boards and e-mail groups. The second is he who scans the first half of the book reading only the bold print. Eventually we get to the obsessive who keeps it on his nightstand and reads at least part of it every night, goes to all the seminars, has posters of O'N on his bedroom walls. But we don't have to go there. You get the idea. To address all CS investors as though they are somehow the same is to ask for trouble. Even O'N does not remain the same through time, and if you're not paying attention, you can wind up standing behind the door as the revisions to the revisions to the revisions are distributed. There are certain elements which CS requires. If they are not present, then you're not talking about CS (shorthand for CANSLIM). You may be talking about something demonstrably superior, but you're not talking about CS. All the talk about variants and individual preference and freedom of expression is begging the question. Without some common ground, chaos reigns, tempers erupt, fistfights break out (yes, what Connie is doing has nothing to do with CS, but he/she never made any claim that it did and everyone supposedly understands that). There must be general agreement that all seven elements must be present in each stock or this becomes a general investment forum, not a CANSLIM forum. Accepting that, it pays to reread the book. A great many things that CSers take as gospel turn out to be merely suggestions. To take a statement such as 75% Of All Stocks Had An Average Earnings Increase of 600% SQLY is not to say that every stock you look for must have a MINIMUM of a 600% increase. Using an average, which O'N does regularly, provides an extraordinary amount of wiggle room. Supply medians as well would help, but this isn't done. So there you are. Left with averages, it's important to know what averages are and how they're calculated. Take the statement that the 500 best-performing stocks had an average RS of 87, and a calculator, and figure out just how bad the RS can be and still be included in this august group. Follow the same exercise for all the other elements. "Wiggle room" takes on a whole new aspect. On the other hand, there are certain minimums with regard to earnings strength, earnings stability, revenues (which are hardly ever mentioned), chart patterns, etc. Find out what those are and you'll be way ahead of the game rather than slogging through the mud, trying to figure out not only where to start, but how to get over there from over here. One must also take it upon himself to assume the responsibility of staying current. It should come as no shock that O'N touts large-cap stocks since large-caps are included in HTMMIS (the idea that CS is a small-cap start-up strategy is a misconception). But beyond that, changes have been made. The five-year earnings stability record is no longer required. Revenues are now included, as are debt/equity and ROE. Rolling quarters are now a factor. Is this a betrayal? Of course not. Yes the book could use a thorough revision. But so could the Bill of Rights, according to some. And the Bible, also according to some. In the meantime, we must do the best we can with what we have and stop following the model of the Spanish Inquisitors. - --Db _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - - ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 21 May 1998 08:45:07 -0700 From: Robert J Knott Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Technical Files Connie Mack Rea wrote: > > Members-- > > I believe that I have sent all the technical files [Parts I, II]--about > 50 sets as of this morning. If any member has not received his, please > let me know. > > I am most grateful--and surprised--with your interest. > > Connie Mack > > - I would like to receive your TA files also. thanks Bob - - ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 21 May 1998 08:55:05 -0700 From: Tim Fisher Subject: [CANSLIM] Re: "New" CANSLIM OK so having said that there are new requirements for CS since the book was updated, esp. for ROE, D/E, revenue, "rolling quarters", etc, what are these requirements? Also if 5-yr EPS trend is no longer a consideration, what is?= 3 years? Two? None? The latter I'd find hard to believe. I'd like to keep current with my scans. For that I need numbers! At 08:21 AM 5/21/98 , you wrote: > > >One must also take it upon himself to assume the responsibility of >staying current.=A0 It should come as no shock that O'N touts large-cap >stocks since large-caps are included in HTMMIS (the idea that CS is a >small-cap start-up strategy is a misconception).=A0 But beyond that, >changes have been made.=A0 The five-year earnings stability record is no >longer required.=A0 Revenues are now included, as are debt/equity and >ROE.=A0 Rolling quarters are now a factor.=A0 Is this a betrayal?=A0 Of >course not.=A0 Yes the book could use a thorough revision.=A0 But so could >the Bill of Rights, according to some.=A0 And the Bible, also according >to some.=A0 In the meantime, we must do the best we can with what we >have and stop following the model of the Spanish Inquisitors. > >--Db > > >_________________________________________________________ >DO YOU YAHOO!? >Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com > > >- >=20 Tim Fisher / tim@OreRockOn.com Ore-Rock-On and Pacific Fishery Biologists WWW Sites: http://OreRockOn.com See naked fish and rocks! - - ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 21 May 1998 11:51:42 -0400 From: Craig Griffin Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] CANSLIM, "M", and DG alternatives (Part One) Db, You wrote: (snip) ... >But beyond that, >changes have been made. The five-year earnings stability record is no >longer required. Revenues are now included, as are debt/equity and >ROE. Rolling quarters are now a factor. Could you expand upon the above statements, please? How does one utilize: Revenues, Debt/equity ROE in CS? O'Neil mentions a low debt/equity as preferable in HTMMIS of course. But I have not seen any formal definition of how to factor in any of the three elements. What precisely is recommended? Also - what are "Rolling quarters" and how are they a factor? Thanks in advance as they say. I enjoyed reading your post. Regards, Craig - - ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 21 May 1998 11:57:39 -0400 From: Craig Griffin Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Missing Member was (market indicator) At 02:54 PM 5/20/98 GMT, you wrote: >I saw one member of the list ruined and disappear (Gess). It is easy to get carried away with the stock market. The first time you make 30% or 100% on a stock it can seem so easy. Sometimes newbies forget that it is even easier to lose 90%. Canslim seeks to mitigate that risk by setting tight stops, buying exactly right on the breakout (close to the top of the base as possible) and aiming for 25-30% returns from each winning stock (if not more). Buying leaders reduces risk, shopping in the higher price merchandise reduces risk, being savvy (having long market experience) reduces risk. Strangely enough - one part of Canslim clearly increases risk - putting 20-25% of your equity into each position. Because of this increased risk - you must follow the rules that reduce risk carefully so that you do not get hurt when you make a mistake. Gess started trading, shooting from the hip I believe. Things like: buying stocks with strong volume moves but no base, attempting to buy the bottom of bases, in general making up trading rules based on what he had picked up from Canslim principles. The specifics are inference and assumption on my part - but I know how easy it is to get sucked into that pattern (of emotional trading) and when you make big trades, as O'Neil recommends (using 25% of your equity in one position), you can lose a lot quickly. There is an attitude one needs with CS. To be successful the greed and fear need to disappear as much as possible. I have found that I am just not comfortable with more than 10-20% in any one stock, so I am running 5 to 10 stocks at the time. 10 stocks is a pain, too many to keep up with really, but I sleep better at night. If you have 4 stocks and bump into a disaster (bad news causes gap down) - then you get way behind. A couple of years experience and you should have learned to read the signs and jump for cover quickly - you don't try to second guess the situation when a stock shows signs of getting into trouble. And this helps one to miss the disasters, but still there is the risk. I find it remarkable when someone says he is holding some stock that is 50% below his buy point because he "likes it" or something. But then again, I've been guilty of similar, holding on while it is down 10%, waiting for a bounce, pretty soon its 12%, well I'll sell if it gets back to 10% I tell myself, then it is 15% and so on. I don't do that anymore. I have no love for any stock and admit my mistakes as quickly as possible. Often, lately, I decide I am WRONG about a stock while still holding a profit and sell. Sometimes, I was WRONG to think I was WRONG :>), but at least I am safe. Constantly admitting you are wrong and recognizing it quickly is a big key to success in Canslim. Then it is a matter of riding your winners. I think the closer one adheres to and is rigorous about and understands the CS "vanilla" principles, the better one is likely to do in the market over the long haul. If you get your emotions involved and start trading with your emotions and "get behind" and "try to win it all back", then you are a gambler and the market will take your last nickel. Most of us fall somewhere in the range. I personally think that reading the market is very important - and so does WON. And although he uses a variety of economic data in his book, ultimately, when it comes to reading the market, WON is a technician. He uses chart reading to tell him what the market is doing. And he does not let his stocks tell him "when to get out" - at least not completely. Several on this list do, however - and that is fine too. The longer you hold your stocks, the safer that is to do. (If you are up 100% and the market has a downdraft and your stock corrects 35% but stays above the 200dma, maybe you want to just ride it. That is really a call based on the time and attention one has to give the market). That is the key element in CS method that is a weak point for me personally - - holding winners for the longer term. I often find a reason to sell in a week or month or three months. I seem to be out of the market (like I mostly am now) once or twice a year. (Of course I would have given back some of my profits this year if I had not exited a few weeks back, with one or two exceptions). Anyway - Gess created his own problem, really by learning enough to get himself in trouble and then letting his emotions direct him into day trading. It is important to follow the basic precepts as tightly as possible until you know what you are doing, otherwise you can get your head handed to you. One should remember that if one is elated with the results of one's trading, you are probably in trouble as surely if you are depressed from it. When the elation starts kicking in - it is usually time to step away for a while (in my experience). Here are some fundamental CS elements for newbies (IMHO): Stay with 8 week or longer bases. Buy breakouts within 5% of the pivot point. Learn to read charts and clearly recognize the pivot. Draw a red line on the chart where you will sell for stop loss - no matter what (no rationalization allowed). Typically 8%. Sell half at a 25% gain. Let the other 1/2 run until other selling rules come into effect (see HTMMIS). Learn those other selling rules and if they come into effect before the 25% gain, go ahead and take the smaller profit and move on. Once you have a profit of 15% or so - never let it turn into a loss. If the stock pulls back to break even and you still have not sold - sell immediately. Don't worry if it then turns and runs 100% - you must protect your capital - there will always be another train to catch. Don't enter a position 100% on the first day. For example: If you are going to put 20% of your equity into each stock, on the first purchase of that stock, put about 10% in - 1/2 position (on the breakout). Then look for signs that it is "acting ok" and pyramid with 2 additional buys to get your full 20%. If the stock runs away and you never get a chance to pyramid - so be it, you might end up with 10 stocks instead of 5. Don't buy stocks under $12/share - in fact pick most of them from the $20 and up range. They tend to be better quality. Make sure that the 3 yr history, last 4 quarters of earnings, institutional sponsership, number of shares, leadership, and market are all as they should be. Additionally, try to buy a stock in a strong group (GRS > 80) with EPS > 85 and RS > 90. Read the chart for each of your stocks (on Bigcharts or other) every day. Look for good price/volume characteristics. Look at the news for each of your stocks (on Yahoo or other) every day. Those are a lot of the basics not to be violated UNTIL you gain experience (IMHO). I can't think of the others right now. Notice that these severe limitations are there to limit your risk and put the odds of significant success in your favor. There are hundreds of stocks that do well that do not meet these characteristics and they have a siren call like Lorelei (sp?). But those that meet these characteristics fall into a selection method that seems to work. It is possible to develop ones own method (which may be more or less reliable) which suits ones own nature, but until you learn the basics you are in dangerous territory. Regards, Craig - - ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 21 May 1998 12:38:27 -0400 From: Ari Lawson Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] What's left on my "watch" list Everyone may want to beg Tom to come back,looking at EDAC! - - ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 21 May 1998 12:50:28 -0400 From: Connie Mack Rea Subject: [CANSLIM] Sex and OBV/MF. Phoenix's aside in his fine little post this morning reminded me of something that I ought to clear up--for reasons that you will understand. A member wrote to say that he was grateful for an OBV/MF stock that turned out to be also a CS stock. He made a few bucks--and still is I gather from his last post. He said I was a "sweetheart," and, that if he knew where I was, other than in cyber space, he'd send flowers. Was sorry to tell him that I was genetically mis-oriented to receive his grateful overture: I am a he. Phoenix, in his aside, escaped into the political safety of referring to me as "he/she." No offence taken, DB. For the record: Named after Connie Mack of the Philadelphia Athletics, am an ex-NBA jock, spent some time in a bank, worked in the oil fields, spent so much time going to school that my father and grandfather embarrassed me into getting a job. Spent the next 20 years at the university, retired early, and do whatever I want. Now, let's get back to making some money. Connie Mack - - ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 21 May 1998 09:47:01 -0700 (PDT) From: dbphoenix Subject: [CANSLIM] M, DG alternatives, CANSLIM (Part Two) I find that with so much emphasis on what the Market is doing, many people are prone to frighten themselves. This is often the result of having made one too many bad investment decisions and being fearful of losing everything they have if the results of those decisions are multiplied by a plummeting market. Out of fear and anxiety, they begin to create scenarios for themselves and perseverate on minutiae, eventually convincing themselves to exit positions for no objectively observable reason. At which point the market explodes to the upside and they vow never to do that again. And the next time, they don't. And the market sinks like a stone while they remain fully invested. This is why O'N stresses again and again to focus on what the market is doing, not what we think it's doing or would like for it to do or what the talking heads think it's doing or is going to do. And what it's doing right now is not much of anything. We could, of course, apply traditional CS methods to try to bring some sense to what's going on, and have. But what's difficult about this is the age of it all. Typically, when a new bull begins, certain groups come to the fore. When they've shone for a while, other groups take their turn. This rotation into ever-new groups is fairly predictable, and when the last group has had its shot, we enter into a bear phase and start all over again. The problem is that, due to a number of unusual circumstances--not the least of which is the money bubble, the cycle has been disrupted. The bull just goes on and on. What should have ended years ago just won't give up. Thus groups rotate in and out over and over again. Chips and chip equipment stocks are in at least their third cycle. Autos and papers are in the ascendant again. Some groups have had not only their second coming, but their third or fourth or fifth. Even the froth of days gone by have reemerged for yet another gig, biotechs among them (I'm waiting for casino stocks to poke their heads above the weeds). So what you wind up with is what's been called "stealth" bear markets. The chip and chip equipment stocks have been through more than one already and look to be entering another, if they haven't already. And most other groups have done so as well at least once. But as long as only a few groups participate at once, the Market is relatively unaffected. As long as the decline in the group is only corrective and the lows are never breached, the group composite and the market itself goes ever higher, even though certain components of the market average may be in deep trouble at any given moment. It's like a roller coaster with increasingly higher highs and higher lows, only it's multiple roller coasters grouped together into one mega-rollercoaster with multiple tracks and simultaneous rides. Therefore, what happens with The Market, unless it's so bad that everything gets dragged down in unison, is possibly irrelevant. To say that The Market is in an uptrend is no solace to those who didn't get out of Y2K stocks or chip equipment or chip stocks when they should have. Focusing on market averages can blind one to what's going on in his portfolio. One's stocks can go up while the market is consolidating or falling (as long as it's not too serious), just as one's stocks can plummet while the market is doing just fine, thank you very much. Because CS insists on loss-containment and constructive chart patterns, it will get you out when necessary and keep you from getting back in when inappropriate. Therefore, if you agonize over what's GOING to happen, you may be taking your eye too long off the ball. Not good. FWIW, if you're interested in trendlines, the following reply to a question asked of me may be helpful. If you're not, just skip it. <> The concept of trend is welded to the concept of timeframe. In other words, the trendlines you draw will depend on what timeframe you're interested in. For example, if you take the long view, the trendline for the Dow would begin at the beginning of the most recent major move, October of 1990. You then draw a line connecting the lows thereafter, avoiding drawing your line through any subsequent lows. In this case, that's January of '91 and November and December of '94. This is the long-term trend (or "a" long-term trend) and joins up with us at around 4800. In the first half of '95, however, the slope clearly accelerates to the upside and a new trend is in place, still to the upside but at a sharper angle. A new trendline can be drawn here for those who have a shorter view. The low point begins December '94, and connects with January '95 and July '96. This joins up with us now at around 6900. In July, the slope changes upward again, and a still shorter-term trendline can be drawn, connecting July '96, April '97, and October '97. If this line had been extended at the time, it would meet us now at just above the 8000 level. It was violated the next day and again in January of '98 and technically that would make the trendline suspect. But it held and one can consider these two days anomalies, particularly since the market closed above the trendline on both days. The slope changes dramatically in January into an unsustainable slope. One could draw a trendline here, but it wouldn't be of much help since the slope forms an arc. One could avoid this shape by drawing a very short-term trendline, but the shorter the line, the riskier. Again, it depends on your timeframe and your risk tolerance. If you want to go ahead and draw it anyway, it begins in January and connects in April (as you will see, it's been violated, but this is not necessarily a big deal--it simply means that the market is now trending sideways, which shouldn't come as a surprise). If you are focused on the *very* short term, you can concentrate on the current sideways "trend". This began with the low on 4/27, was tentatively confirmed when the Dow failed to make a new high on the 4th, confirmed again when the 4/27 low held on the 7th, and confirmed yet again on the 13th. Initial support, therefore, is at the 50d, which the Dow has tested its 50d several times since the end of April, as have other major averages (the only one in real trouble is Dow Transports). Thereafter, it's at the 4/27 low. Whether you use a violation of this low or of the trendline or a percentage or a preset number of points as a stop is up to you, but as long as that low holds, we stuck in a sideways pattern. Volume gives no clue as to future direction. - --Db _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - - ------------------------------ End of canslim-digest V2 #248 ***************************** To unsubscribe to canslim-digest, send an email to "majordomo@xmission.com" with "unsubscribe canslim-digest" in the body of the message. For information on digests or retrieving files and old messages send "help" to the same address. Do not use quotes in your message.