From: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com (canslim-digest) To: canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Subject: canslim-digest V2 #256 Reply-To: canslim Sender: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Errors-To: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Precedence: bulk X-No-Archive: yes canslim-digest Wednesday, May 27 1998 Volume 02 : Number 256 In this issue: Re: [CANSLIM] IPO's & the IBD Re: [CANSLIM] Farmer [CANSLIM] Group rate for Daily Graphs Online (was Fw: Your request) Re: EDAC (was Re: [CANSLIM] My current watch list) Re: [CANSLIM] IPO's & the IBD Re: [CANSLIM] IPO's & the IBD [CANSLIM] Strong stocks in a weak market. [CANSLIM] Weakness in Latin Americal [CANSLIM] Weakness in Latin Americal [CANSLIM] Weakness in Latin Americal [CANSLIM] Down she's going [CANSLIM] One from my watch list [CANSLIM] WON Seminar - June 6th [CANSLIM] Down she's going Re: [CANSLIM] IPO's & the IBD [CANSLIM] Strong stocks in a weak market. RE: [CANSLIM] IPO's & the IBD [CANSLIM] "M" Re: [CANSLIM] IPO's & the IBD Re: [CANSLIM] "M" Re: [CANSLIM] "M" [CANSLIM] Keep your head while others. . . . RE: [CANSLIM] IPO's & the IBD [CANSLIM] TC2000 Intraday [CANSLIM] Re.DG-Online ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Date: Tue, 26 May 1998 23:06:19 -0400 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] IPO's & the IBD Frank, I can't speak to IBD's criteria for publishing info on IPOs, but can comment that WON from my experience doesn't put them on his institutional list until they have been trading publicly for at least several months. In addition, the fundamentals data is often in error for at least the first full year of being public, as the data as a private company is revised to show the "pro forma" basis (what it would have reported had it been public at the time). Tom W - -----Original Message----- From: Frank V. Wolynski To: canslim@mail.xmission.com Date: Tuesday, May 26, 1998 10:40 PM Subject: [CANSLIM] IPO's & the IBD >Greetings All, > >During January and February (and maybe earlier) the IBD was noticably >lacking with printing recent results of IPO's. It is, as best I can >figure, normally included in Tuesdays and Thursdays paper, although this >hasn't fully been investigated. > >Does anyone know the criteria IBD uses to select IPO's included in the >listing? What criteria do they use for not publishing the list? >Have a site you would recommend for someone interested in IPO's? > >Thanks, >Frank Wolynski > > >- > - - ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 26 May 1998 23:22:09 -0400 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Farmer OK, I'll let my myself get drawn in again, at least a little. I described our private email correspondence this weekend as "civilized ... reasonably respectable". That's a describtion that I feel applys to both of us. Jeffry choses to respond that "we come from different worlds" so I presume from this comment that he doesn't consider it to have been "civilized ... reasonably respectable". I will not waste this group's time with this, but I think I have most of the posts still on hard disk. If anyone is curious, let me know and I will forward a copy privately. Now, come on members, enough is enough on the Tom and Jeffry comedy hour. It's over, kill the thread. This is a CANSLIM group. If I don't have hard feelings towards Jeffry, then please, let it go. This group has already obsessed on this issue long enought, let's get back to the stock mkt. I have already said it privately to many members, and I say it again here. Jeffry was the messenger, don't kill him for it. What he had the courage to say was reinforced by many other members who didn't speak up till Jeffry did. Give him credit for his convictions, just as I ask credit for mine. And if he has learned something from the Farmer that helps him make money in stocks, so be it. We all need to learn in our own ways. It's up to each individual to decide if something offered here either as an opinion, interpretation, or resource will aid them in their pursuit of better stock picking and more fruitful timing of entry and exit. Tom W - -----Original Message----- From: Jeffry White <"postwhit@sover.net"@sover.net> To: canslim@mail.xmission.com Date: Tuesday, May 26, 1998 10:39 PM Subject: [CANSLIM] Farmer >> Date: Tue, 26 May 1998 19:10:33 -0400 >> From: "Tom Worley" >> Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Farmer >> >> Actually, I thought it was quite civilized. Reasonably respectful, >> don't recall much if any sarcasm, shows a dialogue is possible, altho >> don't think either of us changed our position or opinion or stock >> selecting strategies. >> >> Tom W >> >We come from different worlds Tom!!! :0) But, dialogue is indeed >possible. > >BTW, for those who care to visit the Stock Logic Research web site which >has been raised by others (most recently kent, I think) here, the link >is posted below. The address is one I've given to some who've asked >privately over the past year, but I think I only posted it generally to >the group once in my intro back in August (right Tom?). > >This used to be a "pure" CANSLIM site, but is in the process of >developing into a "pure" index futures trading system based upon a >modified, computerized version of WON's "Market Direction" price and >volume signals. The owners of the site and I have been acquainted over >the net for the past 3 years or so, I stumbled upon them just after >getting online for the first time. > >The owners and I communicate frequently about the "M" and are in the >throws of a heated debate over whether their "M" under the Stock Farmer >heading of their site, truly continues to reflect WON's "M" or has been >so mechanised (out of necessity for stop placement and profit taking in >the volatile future's market) that it is now one step removed and not >reliable for those of us still struggling with individual issues. > >I never thought it appropriate to post the address generally to the >group because of my concern that it is no longer true "CANSLIM", and my >belief that the NasBars System carried over into the CANSLIM "M" section >and was seemingly generating a false comfort level for stock trading >which I started to question almost a year ago. >A nice site to monitor as they continue to post their market index >charts, and once you get the hang of the terminology, I think you'll see >the Chapter 7 signals showing up on the current chart. > >http://www.accessone.com/~logical/farmer.htm > >Enjoy it. > >Jeffry > >- > - - ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 26 May 1998 22:57:23 -0400 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] Group rate for Daily Graphs Online (was Fw: Your request) Well, we got our answer, not what I was hoping for but can't say I'm all that surprised. FWIW, I have had several past contacts with Garo when I came up with most unusual charts (and without even hacking, mind you) such as IBM trading under two dollars or an options chart which wasn't even supposed to be accessible. I don't think it's coincidence that he was the one to respond to my email (and also the only one to respond by name). He is well aware of my past association and activity as a beta tester. If he tells me nothing can be done at this time, I accept that and will follow his hint which we were already aware of that you can take a subscribtion to one book a month and qualify for the $299 rate for DGO. for a total cost of $530 (still cheaper than the $720/yr for DGO only). And my profits on either EPIQ or EDAC would pay for about five years of the service, and neither were in the books at the time I found them at DGO. Looks like each member is on their own to do what suits them, I will be subscribing to DGO. Tom W - -----Original Message----- From: Customer Service To: 'stkguru@netside.net' Date: Tuesday, May 26, 1998 9:46 PM Subject: RE: Your request > >Dear Mr. Worley: > >Thank you for Beta testing and for your interest in Daily Graphs Online. > We appreciate your request for a discounted price for Daily Graphs Online. > At this time we will not be able to honor a special discount price for DG >Online for the CANSLIM group. We do however offer heavily discounted >prices ($99 and $299) for the online service to those that subscribe to the >Daily Graphs' printed products (NYSE and or NASDAQ/AMEX editions). For >more information regarding this please visit the pricing section at the end >of the download page. For example, you may get a monthly subscription of >either NYSE or NASDAQ/AMEX and get the online service for only $299/year. > >If you have additional questions please don't hesitate to email us. > >Thank you, >Garo Mansourian >Manager > > > >-----Original Message----- >From: Tom Worley [mailto:stkguru@netside.net] >Sent: Wednesday, May 20, 1998 4:45 AM >To: dailygraphs@dailygraphs.com >Subject: Re: Your request > > >I hope the launch of Daily Graphs Online into the commercial world has >gone well and exceeded your expectations. I realize it's only been two >weeks since your response, but in the vacuum left in our CANSLIM >group, the members are going in different directions. Some are simply >relying on the data they can glean from IBD while others are >gravitating to other web sites including Zacks, Stockmaster, >BigCharts, etc. Some have purchased or are considering purchasing >commercial packages such as Quotes Plus, that will allow them to set >up screens for quasi CANSLIM criteria. Several that could afford to >went ahead and subscribed already to DGO, so you did get some >subscribers in any case from the group. > >I hope the Board can act soon, so the group members can decide what >they will do. > >Thanks for your consideration. > >Tom Worley > >-----Original Message----- >From: Daily Graphs >To: stkguru@netside.net >Date: Tuesday, May 05, 1998 3:32 PM >Subject: Your request > > >>Tom Worley, >>We just want to let you know that your e-mail has been received, and >has >>been passed on to Sr. Management. Because we are in the midst of our >launch, >>we are not going to make any immediate decisions; I'm sure you >understand >>this is a very hectic time for us. Your request will be given >serious >>consideration by the Board of Directors, and you should be hearing >from us >>in about 2-3 weeks if we will or will not able to work something out. >Thank >>you very much for all of your support and input, and for testing our >service >>from the beginning. All of your comments have been greatly >appreciated! >> >>Daily Graphs Online >> > > > > > - - ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 26 May 1998 23:50:11 EDT From: SACADS Subject: Re: EDAC (was Re: [CANSLIM] My current watch list) This might sound "novice" but so be it. I have been in the same position only once before. PMCO I believe it was. As I watched the stock continue to move higher regardless of the market, both my greed and my apprehension grew. I resolved this by simply continuing to move my stop higher proportionately to each day's gain. The stock eventually experienced a "sell off" or profit taking and my stop was met. Haven't looked lately but I don't think the stock has recovered to the point I was stopped out at. This simple procedure worked for me and I continue to do this to protect my profit. It seems that in this type market (someone please define it) once a stock begins to drop their having a difficult time rebounding. Owning stocks without stops at the point is like riding rapids without a life preserver. Kind of like the saying about being up the creek. Some stocks that I like currently (in addtion to some of those mentioned by Tom I think) are CLST THQI SOSS and TFS. I have only done limited reserch at this point. (Very little time) This is in no means a recommendation and posted by a NOVICE. Comments on these picks are GREATLY appreciated. Greg P.S. Welcome back Tom. - - ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 26 May 1998 22:04:58 -0500 From: "Joe Scott" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] IPO's & the IBD Try this one Frank, http://www.investools.com/cgi-bin/Library/mavn.pl don't know a thing joe joe@2fords.net http://www.2fords.net/joe/ - - ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 26 May 1998 22:04:58 -0500 From: "Joe Scott" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] IPO's & the IBD Try this one Frank, http://www.investools.com/cgi-bin/Library/mavn.pl don't know a thing joe joe@2fords.net http://www.2fords.net/joe/ - - ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 26 May 1998 21:22:03 -0400 From: Connie Mack Rea Subject: [CANSLIM] Strong stocks in a weak market. Members-- Even in weak markets there are strong stocks. Prepare for the time when the next buying opportunity arises. These stocks meet OBV/MF criteria, with the exception MFAC, GND, and MACR, which are stocks tracking OBV/MF. NBTY FLXS KAMNA MGXI. Put these on your watch list. I would buy none at this time. Connie Mack - - ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 27 May 1998 00:57:39 -0400 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] Weakness in Latin Americal The various stock exchanges in Latin America are now starting to show continued weakness in the midst of the Asian weakness. I am rethinking my plans to be fully invested by the end of the week. Looks like I would be too early, and it could even get ugly if this persists. Overnight futures are particularly ugly, esp in light of Tuesday's trading. Nasdaq 100 now down nearly a percent. Interestingly, the dollar continues to hold value, which suggests we may have another good day in the bond mkt. Tom W - - ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 27 May 1998 00:57:39 -0400 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] Weakness in Latin Americal The various stock exchanges in Latin America are now starting to show continued weakness in the midst of the Asian weakness. I am rethinking my plans to be fully invested by the end of the week. Looks like I would be too early, and it could even get ugly if this persists. Overnight futures are particularly ugly, esp in light of Tuesday's trading. Nasdaq 100 now down nearly a percent. Interestingly, the dollar continues to hold value, which suggests we may have another good day in the bond mkt. Tom W - - ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 27 May 1998 00:57:39 -0400 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] Weakness in Latin Americal The various stock exchanges in Latin America are now starting to show continued weakness in the midst of the Asian weakness. I am rethinking my plans to be fully invested by the end of the week. Looks like I would be too early, and it could even get ugly if this persists. Overnight futures are particularly ugly, esp in light of Tuesday's trading. Nasdaq 100 now down nearly a percent. Interestingly, the dollar continues to hold value, which suggests we may have another good day in the bond mkt. Tom W - - ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 26 May 1998 21:40:42 -0700 From: "Ken Davidson" Subject: [CANSLIM] Down she's going 5/27/98 0:30 Well Globex futures at this hour are looking really ugly!! The index is now off -6.00 points. If we hold like this the S & P 500 will start the morning down at least -10.00 points as futures fair value to cash was already ff -3.20 points. Asian markets seem to all be getting hit right now and this may be accounting for some of the loss. Japan -2%, Hong Kong, -4%, South Korea -3%, Indonesia -3%. It should be an interesting day for sure. If we do get a big selloff in the morning it could mean the bottom of this correction short term however as the market is already signalling quite an oversold position. Ken The information contained in this commentary is based upon data that is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed, and subject to change without notice. Persons reading this are responsible for their actions. - - ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 26 May 1998 08:28:28 -0400 From: "James Adams" Subject: [CANSLIM] One from my watch list SYNCOR (SCOR) 97/83/B Funds own= #20 Stock has been moving sideways while the sector as the Med-Whsl sector has declined. However the moneyflow has been trending upward during the same time frame. As of previous close, 3 EMA poised to break 7,10 EMAs. ZACKS=Strong Buy Yearly EPS Estimate of $1.00 represents an upward revision. Rank within industry 2 of 15. INCOME STATEMENT Financial Info: (Mar 98 Dec 97 Sep 97 Jun 97 Mar 97) Revenue 102.7 94.8 94.5 98.2 93.1 Cost of Goods Sold -- 80.8 72.2 74.3 73.0 Gross Profit -- 14.0 22.3 23.9 20.1 Gross Profit Margin -- 14.8 % 23.6 % 24.3 % 21.6 % SG&A Expense -- 11.4 19.7 18.9 17.3 Operating Income -- 2.6 2.6 5.0 2.8 Operating Margin -- 2.7 % 2.8 % 5.1 % 3.0 % Net Income 3.4 1.7 1.8 4.3 3.3 Net Profit Margin 3.3 % 1.8 % 1.9 % 4.4 % 3.5 % Primary EPS ($) 0.31 0.15 0.17 0.44 0.32 Any comments appreciated. James Adams......................Maysville, KY USA http://www.cris.com/~jimadams/ Internet Pager 1343361@pager.mirabilis.com - - ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 26 May 1998 16:41:04 -0500 From: "Chris McKeever" Subject: [CANSLIM] WON Seminar - June 6th Was wondering if anybody is planning on attending one of these locations, or if some of you have and may offer some comment to me and the group. I am thinking about going, cant see why I would pass up a free talk. Was curious if any chicagolanders may want to go/meet up. Any input would be great Thanks, Chris mckeever - - ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 26 May 1998 21:40:42 -0700 From: "Ken Davidson" Subject: [CANSLIM] Down she's going 5/27/98 0:30 Well Globex futures at this hour are looking really ugly!! The index is now off -6.00 points. If we hold like this the S & P 500 will start the morning down at least -10.00 points as futures fair value to cash was already ff -3.20 points. Asian markets seem to all be getting hit right now and this may be accounting for some of the loss. Japan -2%, Hong Kong, -4%, South Korea -3%, Indonesia -3%. It should be an interesting day for sure. If we do get a big selloff in the morning it could mean the bottom of this correction short term however as the market is already signalling quite an oversold position. Ken The information contained in this commentary is based upon data that is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed, and subject to change without notice. Persons reading this are responsible for their actions. - - ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 26 May 1998 22:04:58 -0500 From: "Joe Scott" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] IPO's & the IBD Try this one Frank, http://www.investools.com/cgi-bin/Library/mavn.pl don't know a thing joe joe@2fords.net http://www.2fords.net/joe/ - - ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 26 May 1998 21:22:03 -0400 From: Connie Mack Rea Subject: [CANSLIM] Strong stocks in a weak market. Members-- Even in weak markets there are strong stocks. Prepare for the time when the next buying opportunity arises. These stocks meet OBV/MF criteria, with the exception MFAC, GND, and MACR, which are stocks tracking OBV/MF. NBTY FLXS KAMNA MGXI. Put these on your watch list. I would buy none at this time. Connie Mack - - ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 27 May 1998 07:43:40 -0400 From: "Nelson E. Timken, Esq." Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] IPO's & the IBD Frank: I am involved in IPOs and have lots of sites such as http://www.ipo.com http://ipocentral.com http://ipomaven.com http://witcapital.com What in particular are you looking for? Most of these sites provide email updates when IPOs are priced. Nelson E. Timken J.N. Capital, Inc. Douglaston, New York - -----Original Message----- From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com] On Behalf Of Tom Worley Sent: Tuesday, May 26, 1998 11:06 PM To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] IPO's & the IBD Frank, I can't speak to IBD's criteria for publishing info on IPOs, but can comment that WON from my experience doesn't put them on his institutional list until they have been trading publicly for at least several months. In addition, the fundamentals data is often in error for at least the first full year of being public, as the data as a private company is revised to show the "pro forma" basis (what it would have reported had it been public at the time). Tom W - -----Original Message----- From: Frank V. Wolynski To: canslim@mail.xmission.com Date: Tuesday, May 26, 1998 10:40 PM Subject: [CANSLIM] IPO's & the IBD >Greetings All, > >During January and February (and maybe earlier) the IBD was noticably >lacking with printing recent results of IPO's. It is, as best I can >figure, normally included in Tuesdays and Thursdays paper, although this >hasn't fully been investigated. > >Does anyone know the criteria IBD uses to select IPO's included in the >listing? What criteria do they use for not publishing the list? >Have a site you would recommend for someone interested in IPO's? > >Thanks, >Frank Wolynski > > >- > - - - - ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 27 May 1998 07:57:04 -0400 From: Jeffry White <"postwhit@sover.net"@sover.net> Subject: [CANSLIM] "M" With the SP futures now off over 10 points from fair value, and though I *think* it's a bit early for this correction to end, it wouldn't surprise me to see the type of bottoming action which *can* precede an intermediate move to the up side. A "gap" down open followed by a close which is roughly unchanged to higher on increased volume will start me counting from 3-10. This type of gap *can* signal kind of an "Oh sh*t" panic by the "weak hands", and the reversal is a consequence of shaking the last of the sellers out. Distribution has been going on for over a month on weak volume (HTMMIS, page 51), and the second wave are waking up with a queezy, fearful feeling in the morning: "Better protect what's left of that paper money profit I've already emotionally spent on that Vermont farmhouse, boat, BMW, etc." Just seems to early here, but I'll count anyway, assuming we reverse. Nasdaq and RUT are 10 and 8% off their highs (a pretty decent correction of itself), but the index fund driven Dow and SP500 are seemingly just getting started. All four indices have now close below their 50 day EMA for the first time since the beginning of the year. Leadership stocks from the last run are getting absolutely hammered. (Give us a one paragraph summary of what you see, Frank W. ;)) Sentiment is still high, but I haven't seen today's numbers. I suspect it will down tick fairly hard again this week, given that all the talking heads are now waking up to the correction which began around the end of the first quarter. But, we have a long way to go on the sentiment side to reach a point where the market can "climb a wall of fear". My shorts are finally exposing some profits. Hope the longs are firm in their stops or have been forced to cash by disciplined use of their sell strategies. Good luck. Jeffry - - ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 26 May 1998 22:04:58 -0500 From: "Joe Scott" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] IPO's & the IBD Try this one Frank, http://www.investools.com/cgi-bin/Library/mavn.pl don't know a thing joe joe@2fords.net http://www.2fords.net/joe/ - - ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 27 May 1998 09:33:11 -0400 From: "Frank V. Wolynski" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] "M" At 07:57 AM 5/27/98 -0400, Jeffry White wrote: >With the SP futures now off over 10 points from fair value, and though I >*think* it's a bit early for this correction to end, it wouldn't >surprise me to see the type of bottoming action which *can* precede an >intermediate move to the up side. A "gap" down open followed by a close >which is roughly unchanged to higher on increased volume will start me >counting from 3-10. This type of gap *can* signal kind of an "Oh sh*t" >panic by the "weak hands", and the reversal is a consequence of shaking >the last of the sellers out. Distribution has been going on for over a >month on weak volume (HTMMIS, page 51), and the second wave are waking >up with a queezy, fearful feeling in the morning: "Better protect what's >left of that paper money profit I've already emotionally spent on that >Vermont farmhouse, boat, BMW, etc." > I'd like to see at least one index showing signs of some resistance to the down side before I'm going to get excited. ...sniped... >Leadership stocks from the last run are getting absolutely hammered. >(Give us a one paragraph summary of what you see, Frank W. ;)) The Top10 list from IBD's Top Performing Industry Groups is: # 1 Computer Software-Internet: down 14.2% in the past two weeks. # 2 Retail Consumer-Elect: down 6.2% in the past two weeks. # 3 Media - CableTV: down 3.3% in the past three weeks. # 4 Finance - Investment Mgmt: down 4.8% last week (prior was up 5.8%) # 5 Commrl Svc-Misc: down 6.0% in the past three weeks. # 6 Tellecomm Cellular: down 5.1% in the past three weeks. # 7 AutoManuf-Domestic: up 19.8% in the past three weeks. # 8 Finl Svcs - Misc: down 2.6% in the past three weeks. # 9 Retail Misc/Diversified: down 4.0% in the past three weeks. #10 Retail Apparel/Shoe: up 1.6% in the past three weeks. Aggregating the weekly percentage change of all the groups results in what I call a raw score of percentage change for all 197 industry groups. Four weeks ago, the score was 159 Three weeks ago, -113 Two weeks ago, -166 and last week, -324 The peak achieved four weeks ago in the broadest sense, has not been threatened and in fact the downside momemtum is building. These numbers come directly from what the market is doing. It has nothing to do with my opinion or yours. I do not use the information to try and anticipate anything, just get a true picture of what is going on. ...sniped... Frank Wolynski (Often wrong, plan accordingly!) - - ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 27 May 1998 09:33:11 -0400 From: "Frank V. Wolynski" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] "M" At 07:57 AM 5/27/98 -0400, Jeffry White wrote: >With the SP futures now off over 10 points from fair value, and though I >*think* it's a bit early for this correction to end, it wouldn't >surprise me to see the type of bottoming action which *can* precede an >intermediate move to the up side. A "gap" down open followed by a close >which is roughly unchanged to higher on increased volume will start me >counting from 3-10. This type of gap *can* signal kind of an "Oh sh*t" >panic by the "weak hands", and the reversal is a consequence of shaking >the last of the sellers out. Distribution has been going on for over a >month on weak volume (HTMMIS, page 51), and the second wave are waking >up with a queezy, fearful feeling in the morning: "Better protect what's >left of that paper money profit I've already emotionally spent on that >Vermont farmhouse, boat, BMW, etc." > I'd like to see at least one index showing signs of some resistance to the down side before I'm going to get excited. ...sniped... >Leadership stocks from the last run are getting absolutely hammered. >(Give us a one paragraph summary of what you see, Frank W. ;)) The Top10 list from IBD's Top Performing Industry Groups is: # 1 Computer Software-Internet: down 14.2% in the past two weeks. # 2 Retail Consumer-Elect: down 6.2% in the past two weeks. # 3 Media - CableTV: down 3.3% in the past three weeks. # 4 Finance - Investment Mgmt: down 4.8% last week (prior was up 5.8%) # 5 Commrl Svc-Misc: down 6.0% in the past three weeks. # 6 Tellecomm Cellular: down 5.1% in the past three weeks. # 7 AutoManuf-Domestic: up 19.8% in the past three weeks. # 8 Finl Svcs - Misc: down 2.6% in the past three weeks. # 9 Retail Misc/Diversified: down 4.0% in the past three weeks. #10 Retail Apparel/Shoe: up 1.6% in the past three weeks. Aggregating the weekly percentage change of all the groups results in what I call a raw score of percentage change for all 197 industry groups. Four weeks ago, the score was 159 Three weeks ago, -113 Two weeks ago, -166 and last week, -324 The peak achieved four weeks ago in the broadest sense, has not been threatened and in fact the downside momemtum is building. These numbers come directly from what the market is doing. It has nothing to do with my opinion or yours. I do not use the information to try and anticipate anything, just get a true picture of what is going on. ...sniped... Frank Wolynski (Often wrong, plan accordingly!) - - ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 26 May 1998 20:51:12 -0400 From: Connie Mack Rea Subject: [CANSLIM] Keep your head while others. . . . Members-- Nothing so focuses the mind as having your stocks reported at the end of the day in red. Now is an opportune time to practice some of your charting and technical knowledge. Two months ago I was chided by a couple of members for having a "bad feeling" about the market. Irrespective of my feeling, the market continued to rise; while I was for a time almost out of the market, and carrying a couple of shorts, most others were in, and making good money. I eventually came back in and made some spending money, but nothing more. This morning, the "bad feeling" came again, and I said that I had sold half of my stocks. The remaining five had very modest profits and I did not intend to take a loss on any of them. I used all market orders. This evening I have but a single stock, VTCH, which is about a half inch from being closed out. By 10:30 it seemed obvious that things were coming apart and by 2:30 big sell programs kicked in. Let's draw in a few trendlines and you can see the source of my "bad feeling" of a couple of months ago. Pull up a 3-mos MACD in BigCharts. Draw a trendline from the first of March to the top at about April 25, just before the dip into the first of May. Just as that dip begins, originate a second line and draw it across the top in mid-May and on to the present. You don't need to draw a trendline on price; it rises powerfully up to the last week in April. Draw a trendline from that high in April across the May tops; it should have a slight upward bias. Draw a trendline under the lows of May; that, too, should have a stronger upward bias as price three times makes higher lows. [Notice that today price fell out of the triangle, fell through two support levels, and stopped at a third. This is a fairly ominous breakdown, especially if tomorrow is another down day.] Now, here is the main source of my "bad feeling." Look at the downward bias of the MACD; though slight, it is in strong negative divergence with price until near the end of April. Then the negative divergence continues: the trendline across the tops of price is slightly upwardly biased, but the MACD trendline increases its downward slide. Take a look at the divergence markers [the black vertical lines]. But for a moment at the end of March, there is not a single crossover. The MACD's negative divergence is scary, not only because of the intensity of the divergence but also for the length [time] of the divergence. Such uninterrupted negative divergence is unusual. Therein is the making of a "bad feeling." Put MF in the lower window. Nothing unusual until about the same time in late April. MF has its top at almost the same point that the MACD started its more intense decline. A trendline across the MF top in late April to the present also is negatively divergent. More "bad feeling." The Volume indicator from April 1 to May 1 is negatively divergent; thereafter, it begins to track price. But the negative divergence won't leave my mind in the context of so much other "bad feeling." The SloSto is presently giving a buy from levels it has before rebounded from. But in the previous context, I won't believe it. The FastSto says otherwise; I do believe it. Seldom do I look at Momentum, but here, too, you can see from the middle of April to the present, the black bars are all over the place; first they're above the trigger line [the zero line] and then they're below; up/down, up/down. What you are seeing here [many negative divergences] over a moderate time spread of three months is what a technician can see over a time spread of one month, or one week, or even a day if he's day trading. The principles are the same: OBV/MF/MACD/SloSto can influence price remotely, as here, or near-simultaneously in very short term trading. What takes place in three months here can be compressed into three days. The trader reads the indicators the same. The OBV/MF/MACD/SloSto tell the trader how to look at price: negative divergence, tracking price, or positive divergence. [These are not the only variables, but they are the main ones.] Over three days, the action is swift, and you expect to see the influence of the indicators manifest themselves quickly. If they don't you're inclined to get out; you made a mistake. When you see a positive divergence extending for three weeks, or three months, you know there is strength building; when you see negative divergence extending for three weeks, or three months, you know weakness is building. You wait for the EMA/MACD/SloSto to tell you what to do. You may want to raise the numbers in the EMA [make it less sensitive] when you have an extended divergence either positive or negative. This will keep you out until you've had a better look. The negative divergences were apparent three months ago; they were [are] lying in wait. Some of my "bad feeling" is still with me. I think there is more correcting to do. The manifestations of the negative divergences is still latent. The longer the negative divergence, the longer it takes, once the correction begins, to heal. The correcting is not done; the healing has not begun. Connie Mack - - ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 27 May 1998 10:44:58 -0400 From: "Frank V. Wolynski" Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] IPO's & the IBD Thanks for the URLs Nelson, I have a strong affinity to New Issues. Despite what WON writes in HTMMIS. I know IBD does not profess to be the daily canslimers bible, but it devotes a section to new issues twice a week, therefore, either it is fluff to fill the rag or there is something worthy of attention. I was a strong proponent of Microsoft when 19 out of 20 people, said "Micro.what?". Heck, I've still got a copy of DOS 2! I actually have a computer running Dos3.1 and don't intend to upgrade it! I liked Cisco Systems when it was an IPO. I remember what I was doing the morning they first traded publically. What am I looking for? If IBD has no particular criteria they use to list the IPO's, then sites where I can find out further information, such as the ProForma reports and specifically what the company intends to do with the financing. I think if ever in a companies history it is going to work hard to do well, it will be once listed on the NASDAQ or NYSE. Public accountability, stock holders demanding performance, that sort of motivation and drive that only a young startup can experience. Breaths of new life in an aged company are fine, but never what a young companys dreams and inspirations can attain. I used to track institutional interest in IPO's. I'm close to undertaking that monumental task again. I am aware of the lag in institutional reporting. It is irrelevant to what I am looking for which is consistent/constant accumulation. Thanks and best regards, Frank Wolynski At 07:43 5/27/98 -0400, Nelson E. Timken, Esq. wrote: >Frank: > >I am involved in IPOs and have lots of sites such as > >http://www.ipo.com >http://ipocentral.com >http://ipomaven.com >http://witcapital.com > >What in particular are you looking for? Most of these sites provide email >updates when IPOs are priced. > > > >Nelson E. Timken >J.N. Capital, Inc. >Douglaston, New York > > >-----Original Message----- >From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com >[mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com] On Behalf Of Tom Worley >Sent: Tuesday, May 26, 1998 11:06 PM >To: canslim@lists.xmission.com >Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] IPO's & the IBD > >Frank, >I can't speak to IBD's criteria for publishing info on IPOs, but can >comment that WON from my experience doesn't put them on his >institutional list until they have been trading publicly for at least >several months. In addition, the fundamentals data is often in error >for at least the first full year of being public, as the data as a >private company is revised to show the "pro forma" basis (what it >would have reported had it been public at the time). > >Tom W > >-----Original Message----- >From: Frank V. Wolynski >To: canslim@mail.xmission.com >Date: Tuesday, May 26, 1998 10:40 PM >Subject: [CANSLIM] IPO's & the IBD > > >>Greetings All, >> >>During January and February (and maybe earlier) the IBD was noticably >>lacking with printing recent results of IPO's. It is, as best I can >>figure, normally included in Tuesdays and Thursdays paper, although >this >>hasn't fully been investigated. >> >>Does anyone know the criteria IBD uses to select IPO's included in >the >>listing? What criteria do they use for not publishing the list? >>Have a site you would recommend for someone interested in IPO's? >> >>Thanks, >>Frank Wolynski >> >> >>- >> > > >- > > > >- > > - - ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 27 May 1998 10:52:52 -0400 From: Craig Griffin Subject: [CANSLIM] TC2000 Intraday Al French, or any others using TC2000 Intraday, Do you like it? What are the advantages/drawbacks? And how fast are the downloads and scans? Regards, Craig - - ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 27 May 1998 11:24:41 EDT From: JANSI1AUG1 Subject: [CANSLIM] Re.DG-Online Group, DG-Online has asked me to forward this (I had learned from the reader in Belgium, I believe, that security was breached in certain Dygraph files). Today, I received this from DG-Online: Subj: Statement from Daily Graphs Online Date: 98-05-26 17:35:26 EDT From: lara@dailygraphs.com (Gail Lara) Reply-to: lara@dailygraphs.com (Gail Lara) To: jansi1aug1@aol.com, johan.vanhoutven@ping.be, rvench@flash.net This is in regards to a topic of discussion in your group on May 20th, 1998. Would you please post this or forward the following to all who may be interested? Thank you. - ------ We have acknowledged and understand your concerns about storing your registration information on your hard drive, and have remedied the situation. If you have downloaded the Daily Graphs software, and have ran the registration program prior to May 23rd, e-mail custserv@dailygraphs.com. You will receive an immediate reply stating which files need to be removed from your PC to ensure your privacy. Be careful to only remove the files stated, so your service is not interrupted. In addition, we have modified the registration program so that anyone who downloads the Daily Graphs software and runs the registration program on or after May 23rd, will not have their credit card or password information stored on their PC once they register. They will also be given the option before they submit their information, to decide whether or not they want to save personal information such as address, phone number etc. If they choose not to, they will be required to re-enter all of their information anytime they make a modification to their profile (i.e. changing an e-mail address). Feel free to e-mail custserv@dailygraphs.com anytime a future concern may arise. We hope you all are enjoying using our service. Daily Graphs Online Design Team jans - - ------------------------------ End of canslim-digest V2 #256 ***************************** To unsubscribe to canslim-digest, send an email to "majordomo@xmission.com" with "unsubscribe canslim-digest" in the body of the message. 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