From: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com (canslim-digest) To: canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Subject: canslim-digest V2 #263 Reply-To: canslim Sender: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Errors-To: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Precedence: bulk X-No-Archive: yes canslim-digest Sunday, May 31 1998 Volume 02 : Number 263 In this issue: Re: [CANSLIM] New CASLI Scan Results Re: [CANSLIM] New CASLI Scan Results Re: [CANSLIM] PGP Re: [CANSLIM] PGP Re: [CANSLIM] RUSH Re: [CANSLIM] Lucent--Tom Re: [CANSLIM] "Internet" stocks--Johann [CANSLIM] Phyliss - TA & "M" Re: [CANSLIM] PGP [CANSLIM] NEWBIE QUESTIONS Re: [CANSLIM] NEWBIE QUESTIONS [CANSLIM] Jeffry & Phyllis & TA Re: [CANSLIM] Jeffry & Phyllis & TA [CANSLIM] My watch list ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Date: Sun, 31 May 1998 10:47:26 -0700 (PDT) From: Tim Fisher Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] New CASLI Scan Results Addendum: My scores, percentile rank within the industry sector for 5-yr EPS, Q0/Q-4, Q-1/Q-5, 24 wk price change, Group RS, and within all stocks for RS. Total Score is the average of the preceeding ranks. COMPANY Tick EPS GR % 0Q % -1Q % 24wk % GRS RS Total Score Theragenics Cp THRX 95% 93% 94% 91% 92% 93% Timberline Soft TMBS 84% 95% 87% 91% 95% 90% Auto Protection APCO 59% 88% 99% 96% 97% 88% First Years Inc KIDD 86% 73% 76% 85% 88% 81% Ciber Inc CBR 86% 75% 78% 78% 85% 80% Legato Systems LGTO 83% 70% 64% 90% 94% 80% Symix Systems SYMX 93% 88% 58% 76% 83% 80% Network Applian NTAP 96% 70% 69% 74% 81% 78% Fastenal FAST 87% 75% 64% 65% 75% 73% Mrv Comms Inc MRVC 94% 71% 68% 55% 55% 69% Pomeroy Comp Re PMRY 89% 67% 67% 44% 57% 65% Imperial Bcp IMP 100% 91% 92% 10% 24% 63% Jack Henry Assc JKHY 60% 57% 57% 66% 71% 62% Semtech Corp SMTC 59% 65% 65% 44% 39% 54% Cdw Comptr Ctrs CDWC 95% 65% 67% 18% 22% 53% Sandisk Corp SNDK 58% 80% 65% 23% 14% 48% Tim Fisher, 1995 President, Pacific Fishery Biologists Ore-ROCK-On Rockhounding Web Site PFB Information mailto:tim@OreRockOn.com WWW http://OreRockOn.com - - ------------------------------ Date: Sun, 31 May 1998 11:11:38 -0700 (PDT) From: Tim Fisher Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] New CASLI Scan Results At 07:31 AM 5/31/98 -0400, you wrote: >Tim, will try to make the time to review the specific stocks later >after my new DG books arrive, but wanted to comment on your selection >criteria for now. > >I don't understand why you would use a minimum of 25 mil shares >outstanding. I can understand setting a minimum limit on ADV if you >are concerned about liquidity. > Am basing it on Db's maximum, actually it was LESS THAN 50 million (error typing on my part), and AFAIK 25M was in HTMMIS, along with the 25k ADV requirement. Good thing you caught my error, I wrote >25M when it should have been <50M. Sorry for the error. >Considering the wide variation in reporting, as well as the lack of >timeliness, I don't know why you would automatically exclude all >stocks with a "reported" funds ownership of under 10%. I have seen >many good CS stocks with a "reported" funds ownership of only 2 or 3%, >you won't even be looking at these even tho it seems to me all that >WON (or Ryan) ask for. > Tried >1%; it didn't add even one more stock to the ones that passed the scan. Again this is based on HTMMIS criteria. If I include zero then it picks up all the "N/A" stocks which could be anything and I don't have the time to research all the stocks for which Zacks just doesn't have the data. >Excluding stocks on a debt/equity or ROE basis will also exclude most, >or all, of some good industry groups (example: home builders typically >carry large debt until they sell the house; also I mentioned the high >debt of RUSH just yesterday). I wouldn't exclude any stocks from >consideration on this basis, rather I would look at this info within >the context of its industry. If it's normal, that's one thing, if not >that's different. Use the human calculator for this aspect of >screening. > Will consider that, I like the number of stocks it comes up with now, and have added them to a "Strict CANSLIM" watch list, doesn't mean that I am not watching others. I'm trying to be as strict as I can here, to have a list of stocks which I can buy without doing any more research, other than looking at the news for buyouts, warnings, upgrades/downgrades, etc. >If you decide to stick with your criteria, you might want to do some >backtesting nonetheless to see what stocks you are automatically >excluding (e.g. keep the earnings criteria, but screen for stocks with >less than 25 mil shares outstanding and less than 10% institutional >ownership, with no limits set for ROE or debt/equity). > >Tom W > >-----Original Message----- >From: Tim Fisher >To: canslim@lists.xmission.com >Date: Saturday, May 30, 1998 9:07 PM >Subject: [CANSLIM] New CASLI Scan Results > > >>My new CASLI scan, based on Db's new criteria and my old criteria: >>Shares Outstanding: >25M >>ADV: >25K >>Price: >$12 >>Institutions: 10-60% of shares outstanding >>Insiders: 10-60% of shares outstanding (don't ask how Zacks can say >this - I >>don't know!) >>Debt/Equity: <1 >>ROE: >17% >>EPS Q0/Q-4: >25% >>EPS Q-1/Q-5: >25% >>5-yr EPS growth > 25% (can't do 3 years with Zacks) >> >>Comments on the criteria? >> Tim Fisher, 1995 President, Pacific Fishery Biologists Ore-ROCK-On Rockhounding Web Site PFB Information mailto:tim@OreRockOn.com WWW http://OreRockOn.com - - ------------------------------ Date: Sun, 31 May 1998 11:11:49 -0700 (PDT) From: Tim Fisher Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] PGP Unless PGP is a biult-in option in your Email software, be prepared to do some manual tweaking of your Email account parameters on your provider's host system. That is, if they're set up like my previous provider. Yours may already support it. At 02:12 PM 5/31/98 GMT, you wrote: >Yeah, I've never emailed CC info. Dangerous. Don't they have >telephones? BTW, how hard (bufuddling, etc.) is PGP to get into (at >least to the point that you've got THIS job done)? > >Dan > >On Fri, 29 May 1998 18:38:53 +0200, you wrote: > >:>Just email >:>your correct mailing address and a new expiration date on your credit card. >: >:Security-wise, this is a big no-no. >: >:Your email passes many, many servers and anyone scanning for the words >:'VISA' and such will easily accumulate a list of credit card nrs with exp >:dates. >: >:FAX your data or use PGP encoded email (both sender and reciever must have >:PGP installed.) >: >:More info on PGP: http://www.nai.com/default_pgp.asp >: >: >: >:Johan Van Houtven >:CLICK! N.V. / Wilrijk, Belgium >: >: >:- > > >- > > > Tim Fisher, 1995 President, Pacific Fishery Biologists Ore-ROCK-On Rockhounding Web Site PFB Information mailto:tim@OreRockOn.com WWW http://OreRockOn.com - - ------------------------------ Date: Sun, 31 May 1998 20:28:22 +0200 From: Johan Van Houtven Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] PGP Tim Fisher wrote: >Unless PGP is a biult-in option in your Email software, be prepared to do >some manual tweaking of your Email account parameters on your provider's >host system. That is, if they're set up like my previous provider. Yours may >already support it. Amazing. Can't see why that would be necessary. Can you explain why that was necessary. I mean: I see no difference between this message or a PGP-encoded message. It is all just a bunch of characters. Maybe your provider only allowed ASCII chars? BTW I agree that you should look for a PGP solution that integrates with your email software. Luckily PGP is available as a plugin for most Windows-based email programs. Johan Van Houtven CLICK! N.V. / Wilrijk, Belgium - - ------------------------------ Date: Sun, 31 May 1998 07:37:42 -0400 From: Tom Worley Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] RUSH When a company goes public (IPO), both the red herring and the final prospectus will show a table of earnings, typically showing the quarterly earnings for its current fiscal year, as well as several years of annual earnings. This data is used by DG and many others in creating the initial database they use. Once public, each quarterly report also gives the comparable qtrly results for the prior year. This often results in adjustments. Once a company has been public for at least one year then the reported data should be accurate for both the current year and for the year prior, subject to any accounting errors (which should already have been caught for the prior year at least) or outright falsification. Tom W - -----Original Message----- From: Barry Marx To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Date: Saturday, May 30, 1998 11:16 PM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] RUSH >Just for comparison purposes, Baseline's earning reports, which can be >accessed through the Earnings History option at www.stockmaster.com agree >with those Tom reports from DG. > >However, they only show earnings for RUSH back thru '97. Baseline is >available through Etrade for account holders, and shows additional info not >available at the stockmaster site. Their info through Etrade says that RUSH >was an IPO in 6/96. If that is true, does DG give earnings reports from >*before* the time that the company goes public? > >Barry > > > >-----Original Message----- >From: Tom Worley >To: canslim@lists.xmission.com >Date: Saturday, May 30, 1998 8:32 AM >Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] RUSH > > >>Tim, not sure who the reference is to someone saying a stock is >>non-CANSLIM, but since I was the one posting on RUSH initially as far >>as I remember, I am certainly willing to defend it. >> >>You are using data from Zack's while I am using data from Daily >>Graphs, which illustrates some of the problems we have in discussing >>stocks here since we all use different favorite sites. I haven't used >>Zack's extensively, but if I recall right they report earnings on a >>net net basis (e.g. including any non-recurring gains or losses). WON >>strips out these non-recurring events and reports only on recurring >>basis. And as of a week ago, all earnings were also adjusted to report >>on a fully diluted basis in accordance with FASB Standard #128. >> >>From DG May 22, 1998 (so a week old, my new book not here yet) >> >>RUSH - Rush Enterprises (Retail - Misc/diversified) >>RS 91, EPS 87, GRS 95, u/d 0.9, A/D B, Timeliness B, 6.6 mil shares >>issued, 2.9 mil in float, ADV 13,200, Funds 39%, Banks 6%, Management >>57% thus there is an effective "real" or trading float of about 1.5 >>mil shares. >> >>On earnings, annual earnings reported as 31 cents in 1993, followed by >>80 cents, 93 cents, 94 cents, 81 cents for 1997 (year ended Dec). >>Estimate for 1998 is 1.05 (up 30%) and for 1999 $1.20 (up 14%). The >>last 8 qtrs of earnings (oldest to newest) were (all in cents) 26, 23, >>24, 12, 15, 25, 29, 20 (for March 98). Thus the past two qtrs Q4FY97 >>and Q1FY98 were 29 vs 24 (up 21%) and 20 vs 12 (up 67%). >> >>Not a perfect CAN(new highs)SLI, which is why I was watching rather >>than buying, however the chart looked promising, and still does. That >>only left "M", which is a different issue. A one day outperformance by >>RUT doesn't mean the small caps are taking over. They are down the >>worst, thus bargain shopping is likely. >> >>Debt is 54%, ROE is 14%, cash flow is $1.26, 1.91 times book value. >>The debt looks typical to me for their business (selling new and used >>Peterbilt trucks, a high ticket item typically financed rather than >>owned outright by the dealer). >> >>Normally WON puts a little triangle next to earnings (both annual and >>qtrly) where the reported nrs included a non-recurring pre-tax gain or >>charge. I don't see that for any of the years or qtrs, so if there >>were any of these type events, they were stripped out and may account >>for the differences. I don't know why Zacks is reporting less than >>five years however. >> >>Tom W >> >>-----Original Message----- >>From: Tim Fisher >>To: canslim@lists.xmission.com >>Date: Saturday, May 30, 1998 12:23 AM >>Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] RUSH >> >> >>>FWIW I have bought stocks based on no other reason than someone on >>the Net >>>recommended them, said they were CANSLIM, SURPRISE! they weren't even >>close. >>>Of course it's my fault since I did no homework, was lazy, etc. and I >>will >>>NEVER EVER do that again. Some of you know who I am talking about. >>> >>>Here's another opinion of RUSH. If you did your homework you should >>have >>>gotten numbers similar to these month-old numbers below. Notice that >>>earnings are just coming out of a hole. That's OK but I don't buy >>stocks >>>with ANY losses in the past 4 quarters. Either Zacks has bad data or >>there >>>are not 5 years of earnings available. I'd research the 5-yr trend >>before >>>buying ANYTHING. It's an important part of "L". It has 31x debt. >>That is >>>HIGH. It wouldn't keep me out but combined with the other >>irregularities >>>this one wouldn't even make my watch list. IMHO you RUSHed into RUSH. >>> >>>RET/WHL-AUTO PT Rush Enterprise >>>TICKER RUSH >>>EXCHANGE NSDQ >>>X SECTOR 3 >>>X INDUSTRY 9 >>>24WK PCHG% 27.78 >>>TREND EPGR N/A >>>QEPS 0/-4 66.67 >>>QEPS -1/-5 20.83 >>>QEPS -2/-6 8.70 >>>QEPS -2/-7 -42.31 >>>TREND SALE N/A >>>P/E 12M 12.92 >>>ROI 14.65 >>>D/Equity 31.88 >>>PEG F1 0.55 >>>% INSIDERS 56.99 >>>% INSTITUT 30.68 >>> >>>At 08:56 PM 5/29/98 -0400, you wrote: >>>>RUSH also ahd more than double average volume with a new high. Isn't >>that >>>>one of the criteria that WON talks about in HTMMIS? I went to IBD >>today and >>>>decided that i would pick a stock i liked that fit Canslim. I have >>lost >>>>toooo much money to still be investing foolishly. >>>>Phyllis >>>> >>>Tim Fisher, 1995 President, Pacific Fishery Biologists >>>Ore-ROCK-On Rockhounding Web Site >>>PFB Information >>>mailto:tim@OreRockOn.com >>>WWW http://OreRockOn.com >>> >>> >>>- >>> >> >> >>- >> >> > > > > >- > - - ------------------------------ Date: Sun, 31 May 1998 05:59:10 -0400 From: Tom Worley Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Lucent--Tom An investor may not feel the need to be as "in depth" in reviewing a big cap stock followed by a dozen or so analysts as they should on a smaller company. However, the review I did below on LU (tho not a stock that interests me particularly) is typical of the review I do on any stock that passes my basic RS/EPS and "decent chart" snapshot review (takes less than a minute to do this). If it passes this more detailed review, then I do some work with the tech indicators as well. Time permitting I will also review news for the past month or more, and check the filings at the SEC site. Do I think an investor should do this much "homework"? Yes, I do. It doesn't guarantee success in investing, but should improve the odds more in your favor, while also improving your comfort factor. And you may learn from it, esp if it goes against you, and avoid a future investment that showed something similar. Tom W - -----Original Message----- From: Bill To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Date: Saturday, May 30, 1998 12:33 PM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Lucent--Tom >Tom, > >Do you believe that the average investor has to go through all of the >analysis that you described below on every stock that he wants to purchase? >Seems to me that the 'market' has already determined the worthiness of the >stock, long before one has the chance to review it. All of the good and bad >news has already been factored into the price of the stock based on >'historical' data as published by IBD, DG, etc.. > >What moves a stock is the collective efforts of individuals betting on the >come. To think that one person can outsmart the masses consistently seems >unreasonable to me. Someone here mentioned that the charts are your best >friends -- I would like to add to that an appreciation of statistical >analysis and good insider information as equally important in my universe. > >The word 'efficiency' crops up in many discussions here. Many writers use >the word to describe people working harder and faster to produce more goods >and services for the benefit of the corporation. While it may be possible >to 'whip' a worker bee into higher levels of production with the proper >incentives, it is the entity's willingness to CHANGE with the adoption of a >CONTINUOUS IMPROVEMENT PROGRAM that ultimately raises efficiency. Of all >the variables available to evaluate MANAGEMENT, the appreciation of CIP and >TQM rank high on my stock buying check list. > > >Bill-->> >------------------------------------------ > >At 7:01 AM -0700 5/30/98, Tom Worley wrote: >>I disagree, DB, the point is, efficiency is not constant. As sales >>increase, so should gross and net profit margins at an even faster >>pace, thus earnings efficiency should also grow. >> >>When this DOESN'T happen, it's a major red flag for me, and a ding on >>the quality of management. When sales go up 20%, it doesn't mean that >>the sales force, much less the "front office staff", had to be >>increased by the same 20%. Nor does it mean that the CEO's salary went >>up by 20% anymore than the rent/lease went up at all on their >>facilities. Much of a major corp's costs are fixed, and do not vary >>depending on sales. Thus they must increase sales to increase earnings >>efficiencies. If I see sales flat and earnings rising sharply, I >>suspect cost cutting which can only last so long, and want to examine >>their SEC filings more closely. Likewise if I see sales rising sharply >>without at least commensurate earnings growth, I suspect either a >>shift in product mix to lower margin products, a greater investment in >>either R&D or overhead, a change in tax status (used up their tax loss >>carryforwards), or some mix, and again want to examine their financial >>filings comments. Only when I see sales growing significantly, and >>earnings growing even faster, am I uniquely comfortable with their >>trends. >> >>Tom W >> >>-----Original Message----- >>From: dbphoenix >>To: canslim@lists.xmission.com >>Date: Saturday, May 30, 1998 9:46 AM >>Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Lucent--Tom >> >> >>><>>than sales as you don't have to increase the overhead (personnel, >>>marketing, warehouses and other facilities, etc). In many cases, >>>existing facilities were built for greater future business levels, >>and >>>the company is just "growing into" those operational facilities, and >>>thus now beginning to gain the sales to justify their capacity and >>>costs.>> >>> >>>You may be confusing revenues with net income. Cost of sales has >>>nothing to do with revenues per se. Earnings cannot outpace sales to >>>an extreme degree on a sustained basis. At some point, revenues must >>>either increase or earnings must fall, given a constant of >>efficiency. >>> >>>--Db >>> >>> >>> >>> >>> >>>_________________________________________________________ >>>DO YOU YAHOO!? >>>Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com >>> >>> >>>- >>> >> >> >>- > > > > >- > - - ------------------------------ Date: Sun, 31 May 1998 11:47:37 -0700 From: Michelangelo Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] "Internet" stocks--Johann Dear DB: Your post is a very good one. Please keep up the good work. You got my support! Sincerely, Howard Shyu dbphoenix wrote: > > < not the > same as Canslim? Please help me to underdstand this!! I was under the > impression that RS and EPS that WON talks about in his book is the same > criterisa that is printed in IBD. > > Thanks,Phyllis>> > > Don't jump to conclusions, Phyllis. I'm probably alone in this. > > I learned long ago to separate O'N the researcher and investor from > O'N the newspaper publisher. When I began investing 10 years ago, I > scoured IBD, hanging on its every word, but much of what I gathered > didn't make sense to me. > > There's really nothing unique or even unusual about CANSLIM. Most of > its principles date back to the last century. What O'N did is put it > all together into a comprehensive and relatively comprehensible > package, aided by his daily newspaper. What he learned in his > research is that a record of strong, stable earnings was "critical" > (his word) to selecting winning stocks. To aid the investor in > locating these companies, he came up with the EPS formula. But to say > that EPS rank is the same as the actual earnings record is to say that > a photograph of a banana is the same as a banana. They are not the > same. And those who go strictly by IBD's EPS numbers without ever > looking at the company's balance sheet or its 10K are taking a great > deal on faith and swimming in very muddy water. > > The other half of the equation after what to buy is when to buy it, > which is where charts and relative strength come in. O'N advises > buying stocks with strong relative strength. That does not--much to > many investors' surprise--mean stocks that are going up. A stock can > have a high relative strength and be basing, or even forming a cup and > handle. What he's talking about are stocks that are going places, > strong stocks, industry leaders (even if they may not be price leaders > at that exact moment), gorillas. Again, to help investors > (specifically, subscribers), he came up with the RS formula. But also > again, the RS rank is not the same as relative strength. If you want > to see relative strength, you need to find or plot a relative strength > line. Otherwise, unless you plot every stock in IBD in Excel, you > have no way of knowing whether the relative strength is increasing or > decreasing. You also have no way of knowing whether the relative > strength line is diverging from the price plot unless you look at it. > Ditto with group and sector composites and indices. An RS line can > also tell you how fast a stock or group is moving relative to the > market. An RS number can't, unless you keep track of it and plot it > on a spreadsheet. But, as to the latter, unless your time is worth 25 > cents an hour, it's a lot easier just to buy an inexpensive charting > program and have the computer do it in a few seconds. > > So, to make a short story long, the RS and EPS ranks mentioned in the > book are the same as those in IBD. However, the bulk of HTMMIS is > devoted to extolling the virtues of earnings and relative strength, > and EPS and RS ranks are only surrogates for earnings and relative > strength, not the earnings and relative strength themselves. To get > at those, you have to dig a little deeper. > > --Db > > _________________________________________________________ > DO YOU YAHOO!? > Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com > > - - - ------------------------------ Date: Sun, 31 May 1998 18:18:10 -0400 From: Jeffry White <"postwhit@sover.net"@sover.net> Subject: [CANSLIM] Phyliss - TA & "M" Phyllis, hello. I, too, generally ignore the DJIA in my effort to "listen" to the "M". I focus almost exclusively on the NASDAQ because I just never seem to find "three-letter stocks" that suit my tastes. I do watch the SP, NYSE and the RUT, however, in order to keep my finger on the pulse in a broader sense. I am concerned about the form of your question "do TA on it and it fails, then it is not a good time to be in the market?" My gut tells me some of the posts in this group of late would suggest you should gague the market in "hindsight" with lagging indicators such as support levels, trendlines, MACD, etc. many of which were just posted in a very able piece by Connie Mack. I'm a big fan of Connie Mack's, and I've learned a great deal from his presence on this thread. However, his "M" is only now confirming what WON's Chapter 7 price and volume signals, along with sentiment peaks, told market participants on the long side in early April: time to start thinking about a move toward cash!! Perhaps those indicators would have given him an earlier glimpse, but I don't recalling him sounding the bear until around a week ago. I suppose since you are just being introduced to the CANSLIM world, looking at the current market environment through TA glasses alone could reasonably lead you to conclude that "it's not a good time to be in the market". But if you are monitoring the "M" under Chapter 7 criteria (the objective measures only, of course), you'll be practicing this exercise as things occur, not looking back through a retrospectoscope, as Connie Mack has so ably done, albeit for our mutual benefit. This is not a slight against Connie M, he's one of the best TA teachers I've ever had the pleasure of being exposed to. His observations on the psychology of trading are top notch, as far as I'm concerned. However, he is a pure trader, and predominantly of short term duration. In contrast, CANSLIM is not day trading, usually (unless you are unfortunate). Keep CM's perspective in mind always, for he is not CANSLIM, but a valuable observer and teacher to us all (particulary on "entry point" for me). He's very good at keeping that distinction in the forefront, but I didn't notice it on the recent TA "M" post. The CANSLIM'ers effort, I believe, is to focus on the several (if that many) times in a year (during the course of bull market phases) where leadership stocks emerge from appropriate bases, to enter them properly, to religiously place stops, pyramid the positions when they allow and ride until the "M" tells us *IN ADVANCE* that it's time to start paying attention to the weaklings in our holdings. We then move toward cash, completely if need be, and sit and wait (unless we can't resist the temptation to short a few of those junk heap high-flier that made complete fools of the shorts on the way up while the "M" was hot). Over and over it goes, time after time, virtually the same thing repeats itself. Some TA may help recognize these tops, but I find the simple and objective price and volume signals to be most effective and less prone to the vagaries of wishful thinking and interpretation. At this point, may I suggest you pull up a NASDAQ chart and start trying to recognize the "distribution days" which began back in late March/early April. Try to see where the market indices hit lows, rallied off those lows and made it to new highs. Each low after major distribution began (in conjunction with 5 year lows in bearishness and near 5 year highs in bullishness) was an opportunity for a "failed rally", and only one of them actually resulted in that phenomenon (although I must say that Friday's action may actually be another, but we'll know for sure if we fail to "follow through" off the Wednesday low, or take it out). Work at it until you see it. Ask the group which days were distribution days, once you've given it your best effort. When you are done, and comfortable with your efforts, I think you'll be well equipped to answer the question you posted. Is it a good time to be in the market? Save CM's post on the "M" TA. When you have fully analyzed the NASDAQ chart starting in early April, see if his focal points for initial breakdown coincide with the "distribution days" we try to recognize through price and volume signals. How did his signs of deterioration confirm or vary from the sentiment peaks? What the "M" has me doing now, (it's no secret I'm in cash except for few shorts), is waiting to see what becomes of the the Wednesday low. Will it confirm an uptrend by "follow through" day, or not? If not, we simply wait for another low, and count again. Sentiment usually will need to become extraordinarily bearish before a low will come which kicks out a "follow through day" and succeed in signalling the beginning of a new intermediate term move to the upside. Are we in for another 1994 lull where we chopped around until the bearishness hit almost 60% before we resume a sustainable uptrend? I *hope* not (Db!!!), but we'll see. Timing the "M" often time sounds a lot like my oldest child's perpetual response to the question posed a hundred times on whether her soon to be sibling would be male of female. Her response was invariably the same: "we won't know 'til it comes out." Most times in the market, however, it's more comforting to try and know before it "comes out." Good luck, to you. Jeffry - - ------------------------------ Date: Sun, 31 May 1998 17:56:00 -0500 From: "Chris McKeever" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] PGP The PGP I used was ascii. Once the message was recieved it was opened with the keygrip's I may be behind inthe advances however. Chris - -----Original Message----- From: Johan Van Houtven To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Date: Sunday, May 31, 1998 1:28 PM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] PGP >Tim Fisher wrote: > >>Unless PGP is a biult-in option in your Email software, be prepared to do >>some manual tweaking of your Email account parameters on your provider's >>host system. That is, if they're set up like my previous provider. Yours may >>already support it. > >Amazing. Can't see why that would be necessary. Can you explain why that >was necessary. > >I mean: I see no difference between this message or a PGP-encoded message. >It is all just a bunch of characters. > >Maybe your provider only allowed ASCII chars? > >BTW I agree that you should look for a PGP solution that integrates with >your email software. Luckily PGP is available as a plugin for most >Windows-based email programs. > > > > > > >Johan Van Houtven >CLICK! N.V. / Wilrijk, Belgium > > >- > > - - ------------------------------ Date: Sun, 31 May 1998 18:01:57 -0500 From: "Chris McKeever" Subject: [CANSLIM] NEWBIE QUESTIONS I got a question......using this newslist to build my knowledge and learn techniques, I run into a couple barriers. Sometimes the members use abbreviations, that at least for me boggle my mind more so than some of the intense screens and TA (see now I think I at least picked that up for technical analysis) that I am trying to follow. Also some of the criteria I do not completely, or at all follow, ie TIMELINESS. Has someone set up a newlist webpage? One with some of the basics and definitions on it? I think I saw something about a page with many of the members bios (what is that address?) does this page have some of the information? If the answer to a couple of these questions are NO. Then I would like to volunteer to set something up. It wont be pretty but it'll be full of info! I think it was DB that said to keep a journal. I have been planning to do this, so why not make it an WEB based journal that can be tapped into by everyone? Let me know, maybe like many of my ideas this has been done already. It would just be something that I know would speed and assist in the learning curve for myself and I am sure a couple other of the new guys too. All I would need is a couple guys that wouldnt mind a couple emails with some of the basic quesitons. I think it would be a good idea. A couple examples: A/D Timeliness how exactly one uses OBV/EMA to determine entry points, I cant see anything. Let me know.. Chris - - ------------------------------ Date: Sun, 31 May 1998 19:53:52 -0400 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] NEWBIE QUESTIONS Chris, A most generous offer. This group, thanks to its continued growth as well as the addition of many members new either to CANSLIM or to investing in general, badly needs a FAQ site as well as (if not already included there) a site for abbreviations and acronyms. The introductions site (can be read at www.shango.net/canslim and a new one posted at www.shango.com/joseph ) won't provide this info you mention. For those that have never looked at a Daily Graph (e.g. don't/never subscribed to the book form or participated in the beta testing of the online version), I can only continue to suggest that you at least take the trial version (4 weekly books, mine are dropped in my driveway by about 10AM on Sunday). Cost is $29 for one book (choice of NYSE or of AMEX/NASDAQ) or $43 for both books. I think you can subscribe online at www.investors.com or by calling 800-472-7479. With regard to the question on the meaning of Timeliness, this and many other terms used by WON in his DG are all defined in the back of each book. Timeliness is a proprietary rating based upon recent earnings changes and price performance indicating possible or potential relative price performance over the next 12 months. General market factors are not considered in the stock rating. A is highest and E is lowest etc. A/D is the shorthand for Accumulation/Distribution defined in DG as a proprietary rating, including daily volume, price movement and direction in the stock prick. A is strongest, E is weakest etc. As for using OBV (on balance volume)/ MF (money flow) for entry point decisions, I would suspect that with over 800 members you would get at least 100 different answers. And that's assuming there are only about 100 members of this group actively using OBV/MF for entry point decisions. I am still playing around with the TA (yes, you are correct this refers to Technical Analysis, most commonly used in this group to refer to the various analysis you can do at www.bigcharts.com ) to find what best works for me. Tom W - -----Original Message----- From: Chris McKeever To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Date: Sunday, May 31, 1998 7:08 PM Subject: [CANSLIM] NEWBIE QUESTIONS > >I got a question......using this newslist to build my knowledge and learn >techniques, I run into a couple barriers. > >Sometimes the members use abbreviations, that at least for me boggle my mind >more so than some of the intense screens and TA (see now I think I at least >picked that up for technical analysis) that I am trying to follow. Also >some of the criteria I do not completely, or at all follow, ie TIMELINESS. > >Has someone set up a newlist webpage? One with some of the basics and >definitions on it? > >I think I saw something about a page with many of the members bios (what is >that address?) does this page have some of the information? > >If the answer to a couple of these questions are NO. Then I would like to >volunteer to set something up. It wont be pretty but it'll be full of info! >I think it was DB that said to keep a journal. I have been planning to do >this, so why not make it an WEB based journal that can be tapped into by >everyone? > >Let me know, maybe like many of my ideas this has been done already. It >would just be something that I know would speed and assist in the learning >curve for myself and I am sure a couple other of the new guys too. All I >would need is a couple guys that wouldnt mind a couple emails with some of >the basic quesitons. > >I think it would be a good idea. > >A couple examples: > A/D > Timeliness > how exactly one uses OBV/EMA to determine entry points, I cant see >anything. > > >Let me know.. > >Chris > > >- > - - ------------------------------ Date: Sun, 31 May 1998 20:26:01 -0400 From: Connie Mack Rea Subject: [CANSLIM] Jeffry & Phyllis & TA Evening Jeffry-- Phyllis will profit from your observations. As someone just venturing into investing, she should proceed slowly--and Canslim provides that pace. She is among some friendly and knowledgeable members who have, it seems to me, taken kindly to newcomers. Too, I am grateful for your compliments, Jeffry. I do forget occasionally to remind readers that I am a trader more than an investor. Perhaps it is a forgivable offense--because I do feel more and more at home here and do now and then forget that not all the members know my unspoken disclaimer of trader. Jeffry called me a "pure trader." There is that side that is day trader and swing trader or short term trader. But I, too, am an investor who has two IRA accounts, one of which I trade from, and a second that holds some investments given me by my father. I rarely touch this account. I have two margin accounts. One I trade from almost daily and a second is comprised of investments recently made in the last three years or so. I do little in this account. What prompts me to mention the latter is that I did make a change in that account about two months. Jeffry thought I was a bit late to turn bear. I have, however, earlier said that I had a "gut feeling" about the market that made me "uneasy." As a result of the uneasiness, I sold the entire account "short against the box," which means that I sold short stock that I already owned rather than shorting stock that my broker would have had to borrow. Selling short against the box meant that I could neither gain nor lose in the account. What I lost on the long side, I made on the short. This type shorting is just another species of hedging. A while ago I half facetiously suggested to Tom that he short against the box a stock that he held. I had forgotten that his stock was held in his IRA; you cannot short a stock in an IRA. During a lull in the market last week, I ran "canslim" through two or three of the search engines. There were almost 75 pages of replies. One site reminded me that I could use CS not only for investing, but for short term trading, and even day trading. Had this not been a fee-based site, I would have pursued this new miracle function. Have I been a CSer and never knew it? Is CS even less pure than any of us could have imagined? Thanks for the comment, Jeffry. Connie Mack - - ------------------------------ Date: Sun, 31 May 1998 23:08:50 -0400 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Jeffry & Phyllis & TA Connie, I'm going to start worrying if I have to think we have converted you to CANSLIM. Keep the faith, stay a day trader, we all need that perspective. Tom W - -----Original Message----- From: Connie Mack Rea To: canslim Date: Sunday, May 31, 1998 8:24 PM Subject: [CANSLIM] Jeffry & Phyllis & TA > >I do forget occasionally to remind readers that I am a trader more than >an investor. Perhaps it is a forgivable offense--because I do feel more >and more at home here and do now and then forget that not all the >members know my unspoken disclaimer of trader. > >During a lull in the market last week, I ran "canslim" through two or >three of the search engines. There were almost 75 pages of replies. >One site reminded me that I could use CS not only for investing, but for >short term trading, and even day trading. Had this not been a fee-based >site, I would have pursued this new miracle function. > >Have I been a CSer and never knew it? Is CS even less pure than any of >us could have imagined? > >Thanks for the comment, Jeffry. > >Connie Mack > > >- > - - ------------------------------ Date: Sun, 31 May 1998 23:33:22 -0400 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] My watch list Deleted several, added several more. Here's what is left: CAER, EPIQ, FTIC, GCABY, ILOGY, INSUA, MDLK, MINI, RELL, RIMG, RUSH, SNHY, SUPI, TMBS, TXCC, VARL, BVRTF, LAKE, JAII. I'm still backtesting an improved "timing" approach to CANSLIM, at least to micro and small cap stocks. Hope to post it shortly. Tom W - - ------------------------------ End of canslim-digest V2 #263 ***************************** To unsubscribe to canslim-digest, send an email to "majordomo@xmission.com" with "unsubscribe canslim-digest" in the body of the message. For information on digests or retrieving files and old messages send "help" to the same address. Do not use quotes in your message.