From: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com (canslim-digest) To: canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Subject: canslim-digest V2 #2639 Reply-To: canslim Sender: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Errors-To: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Precedence: bulk Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable X-No-Archive: yes canslim-digest Sunday, July 21 2002 Volume 02 : Number 2639 In this issue: Re: [CANSLIM] M - How low will it go. Re: [CANSLIM] M - How low will it go. Re: [CANSLIM] M - How low will it go. Re: [CANSLIM] M - How low will it go. [CANSLIM] Fibonacci ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Date: Sun, 21 Jul 2002 03:58:43 -0400 From: "Ira Post" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] M - How low will it go. This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------=_NextPart_000_0008_01C2306A.E8005E00 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Ernie, I've been hearing alot about Fibonacci lately and would like to get a = backround in it. Can you recomend a website or book that would help? = Something easy to read would be best. Thanks, Ira ----- Original Message -----=20 From: Hill, Ernie=20 To: 'canslim@lists.xmission.com'=20 Sent: Sunday, July 21, 2002 12:16 AM Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] M - How low will it go. Ira, =20 In my post made on 7-17 I said that the bounce I was expecting had = been made that day and that I expected the S&P to drop to at least 865 = by Monday. What I didn't say was that 845 was my next target. I also = posted on 7-13 that I expected a drop to the 759-782 level by 8-15 or = 8-16. =20 Bear with me on some of these numbers while I build my case. I am = going to talk about Fibonacci extensions a little bit. A Fibonacci = extension is measuring a current move by comparing it to recent moves in = the same direction. This is the series of numbers for these extensions = .236, .5, .618, 1.00, 1.236, 1.5, 1.618, & so on. =20 If we measure from the high on 5-17 to the low on 6-14 and multiply = the points by 1.618 and then subtract this number from the high on 6-18 = we get 838.74. =20 If we measure from the high on 6-18 to the low on 7-3 and multiply the = points by 1.382 and then subtract this number from the high on 7-8 we = get 847.22. We closed Friday at 847.76. =20 If we measure from the high on 6-18 to the low on 7-15 and multiply = the points by .5 and then subtract this number from the high on 7-17 we = get 844.44. The low on Friday was 842.14. =20 This is an impressive cluster of Fibonacci extensions all occurring = very near where the market ended up on Friday. This could be strong = enough support to signal a turn in the market from here. Generally this = type of support would provide a spring board from which to move up. = However, my timing model suggests that we will continue to work lower to = at least 7-24. Also the slope of the decline has become much sharper = suggesting to me that we finally saw some fear in this market. I = therefore, would not be surprised to see the market move down sharply = again on Monday. I also would not be surprised to see a one or two day = bounce from this level, and then a continuation of the decline. =20 As far as my forecast of 759-782 by 8-15 or 8-16 I stand by that = forecast with one modification, due to the fear that I see beginning to = be manifest in the market I think this level could be seen by an earlier = date specifically 7-25 or 7-26. And the 780 level looks to be the = stronger candidate. Here is the case for 780. =20 If we measure from the high on 3-19 to the low on 5-7 and multiply the = points by 2.618 and then subtract this number from the high on 5-17 we = get 779.79. =20 If we measure from the high on 6-18 to the low on 7-3 and multiply the = points by 1.382 and then subtract this number from the high on 7-17 we = get 780.18. =20 And if we measure from the high on 7-8 to the low on 7-15 and multiply = the points by 1.236 and then subtract this number from the high on 7-17 = we get 781.91. =20 This is a very tight cluster of Fibonacci extensions and suggests that = this could be the level where we can find an intermediate term bottom. = Not THE bottom, but a bottom that could spark a very strong bear market = rally. =20 In conclusion Friday could have been the intermediate term bottom at = 842.14, but my stuff suggests that the odds are in favor of at least one = more swift drop to the 780 level before the intermediate term bottom is = in. =20 E =20 =20 -----Original Message----- From: Ira Post [mailto:ip108@yahoo.com]=20 Sent: Saturday, July 20, 2002 4:21 AM To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Subject: [CANSLIM] M - How low will it go. =20 I've been sitting out of the market and this discussion list because I = don't think these market conditions are suitable for Canslim. But I'm = ready to get back into it once the market turns around. =20 My question is how much longer before the market turns and how low = will it get? I'd like to hear alot of different opinons and people's = reasons. It may do us all some good. =20 Ira =20 --- Outgoing mail is certified Virus Free. Checked by AVG anti-virus system (http://www.grisoft.com). Version: 6.0.377 / Virus Database: 211 - Release Date: 7/15/02 ****************************************************************** This email and any files transmitted with it from the ElPaso=20 Corporation are confidential and intended solely for the=20 use of the individual or entity to whom they are addressed.=20 If you have received this email in error please notify the=20 sender. ****************************************************************** - ------=_NextPart_000_0008_01C2306A.E8005E00 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
Ernie,
 
I've been hearing alot about Fibonacci = lately and=20 would like to get a backround in it.  Can you recomend a website or = book=20 that would help? Something easy to read would be best.
 
Thanks,
Ira
----- Original Message -----
From:=20 Hill,=20 Ernie
Sent: Sunday, July 21, 2002 = 12:16=20 AM
Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] M - How = low will=20 it go.

Ira,

 

In my post = made on=20 7-17 I said that the bounce I was expecting had been made that day and = that I=20 expected the S&P to drop to at least 865 by Monday. What I didn't = say was=20 that 845 was my next target. I also posted on 7-13 that I expected a = drop to=20 the 759-782 level by 8-15 or 8-16.

 

Bear with = me on some=20 of these numbers while I build my case. I am going to talk about = Fibonacci=20 extensions a little bit. A Fibonacci extension is measuring a current = move by=20 comparing it to recent moves in the same direction. This is the series = of=20 numbers for these extensions .236, .5, .618, 1.00, 1.236, 1.5, 1.618, = & so=20 on.

 

If we = measure from=20 the high on 5-17 to the low on 6-14 and multiply the points by 1.618 = and then=20 subtract this number from the high on 6-18 we get 838.74.

 

If we = measure from=20 the high on 6-18 to the low on 7-3 and multiply the points by 1.382 = and then=20 subtract this number from the high on 7-8 we get 847.22. We closed = Friday at=20 847.76.

 

If we = measure from=20 the high on 6-18 to the low on 7-15 and multiply the points by .5 and = then=20 subtract this number from the high on 7-17 we get 844.44. The low = on Friday=20 was 842.14.

 

This is an = impressive=20 cluster of Fibonacci extensions all occurring very near where the = market ended=20 up on Friday. This could be strong enough support to signal a turn in = the=20 market from here. Generally this type of support would provide a = spring board=20 from which to move up. However, my timing model suggests that we will = continue=20 to work lower to at least 7-24. Also the slope of the decline has = become much=20 sharper suggesting to me that we finally saw some fear in this market. = I=20 therefore, would not be surprised to see the market move down sharply = again on=20 Monday. I also would not be surprised to see a one or two day bounce = from this=20 level, and then a continuation of the = decline.

 

As far as = my forecast=20 of 759-782 by 8-15 or 8-16 I stand by that forecast with one = modification, due=20 to the fear that I see beginning to be manifest in the market I think = this=20 level could be seen by an earlier date specifically 7-25 or 7-26. And = the=20 780 level = looks to be=20 the stronger candidate. Here is the case for = 780.

 

If we = measure from=20 the high on 3-19 to the low on 5-7 and multiply the points by 2.618 = and then=20 subtract this number from the high on 5-17 we get 779.79.

 

If we = measure from=20 the high on 6-18 to the low on 7-3 and multiply the points by 1.382 = and then=20 subtract this number from the high on 7-17 we get 780.18.

 

And if we = measure=20 from the high on 7-8 to the low on 7-15 and multiply the points by = 1.236 and=20 then subtract this number from the high on 7-17 we get = 781.91.

 

This is a = very tight=20 cluster of Fibonacci extensions and suggests that this could be the = level=20 where we can find an intermediate term bottom. Not THE bottom, but a = bottom=20 that could spark a very strong bear market = rally.

 

In = conclusion Friday=20 could have been the intermediate term bottom at 842.14, but my stuff = suggests=20 that the odds are in favor of at least one more = swift=20 drop to the 780 level before the intermediate term bottom is=20 in.

 

E

 

 

-----Original=20 Message-----
From: = Ira Post=20 [mailto:ip108@yahoo.com]
Sent: Saturday, July 20,=20 2002 = 4:21=20 AM
To: = canslim@lists.xmission.com
Subject: [CANSLIM] M - How low = will it=20 go.

 

I've been sitting out of = the=20 market and this discussion list because I don't think these market = conditions=20 are suitable for Canslim.  But I'm ready to get back into it once = the=20 market turns around.

 

My question is how much = longer=20 before the market turns and how low will it get?  I'd like to = hear alot=20 of different opinons and people's reasons.  It may do us all some = good.

 

Ira

 


---
Outgoing mail = is=20 certified Virus Free.
Checked by AVG anti-virus system (http://www.grisoft.com).
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********************************************************= **********
This=20 email and any files transmitted with it from the ElPaso =
Corporation are=20 confidential and intended solely for the
use of the individual or = entity=20 to whom they are addressed.
If you have received this email in = error=20 please notify the=20 =
sender.
**********************************************************= ********
 - ------=_NextPart_000_0008_01C2306A.E8005E00-- - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Sun, 21 Jul 2002 04:02:04 -0400 From: "Ira Post" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] M - How low will it go. This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------=_NextPart_000_0016_01C2306B.5FB18AA0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Winston, Maybe what we need is a kind of reverse CANSLIM to help us take = advantage of the bear markets. Some basic principals to identify = falling stocks - both fundamentally and technically as CANSLIM does so = well with rising stocks. Ira ----- Original Message -----=20 From: Winston Little=20 To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20 Sent: Saturday, July 20, 2002 2:00 PM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] M - How low will it go. Ira P: 1) Looking through history: 1902 - 1921=3D19 years =3D bear market (active trading required) 1921 - 1929 =3D 08 years =3D bull market (buy and hold, CANSLIM is = ideal) 1929 - 1949 =3D 20 =3D bear market, depression (active trading = required) 1949 - 1966 =3D 17 =3D bull market ( buy and hold, CANSLIM is ideal) 1966 - 1982 =3D 16 years =3D bear market ( active trading required) = =20 1982-1999 =3D 17 years =3Dbull market ( buy and hold, CANSLIM is = ideal) 2000-present =3D 2++++ years =3D bear market (active trading = required) 2) How low will it go and how long will it take? It COULD be a long wait, then again it could only be a few more days. 3) However, looking at history again, September is usually one of the = worst months, and October tends to be one of the most turbulent in each = year, as the bright boys and girls who run Mutual Funds try to dress the = portfolios to show that they hold no losers.... someone else must have = taken the money! It is not the manager's fault! 4) Just follow the advice of Marty Zweig: "don't fight the feds, = don't fight the tape"! Just go with the sector rotation and keep trading ACTIVELY! ----- Original Message -----=20 From: Ira Post=20 To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20 Sent: Saturday, July 20, 2002 5:21 AM Subject: [CANSLIM] M - How low will it go. I've been sitting out of the market and this discussion list because = I don't think these market conditions are suitable for Canslim. But I'm = ready to get back into it once the market turns around. My question is how much longer before the market turns and how low = will it get? I'd like to hear alot of different opinons and people's = reasons. It may do us all some good. Ira --- Outgoing mail is certified Virus Free. Checked by AVG anti-virus system (http://www.grisoft.com). Version: 6.0.377 / Virus Database: 211 - Release Date: 7/15/02 - ------=_NextPart_000_0016_01C2306B.5FB18AA0 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
Winston,
 
Maybe what we need is a kind of reverse = CANSLIM to=20 help us take advantage of the bear markets.  Some basic principals = to=20 identify falling stocks - both fundamentally and technically as CANSLIM = does so=20 well with rising stocks.
 
Ira
 
 
----- Original Message -----
From:=20 Winston=20 Little
Sent: Saturday, July 20, 2002 = 2:00=20 PM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] M - How = low will=20 it go.

Ira P:
 
1)  Looking through history:
1902 - 1921=3D19 years =3D bear market = (active trading=20 required)
1921 - 1929 =3D 08 years =3D  bull market = (buy and hold,=20 CANSLIM is ideal)
1929 - 1949 =3D 20 =3D bear market, depression = (active trading=20 required)
1949 - 1966 =3D 17 =3D bull market ( buy and hold, = CANSLIM is=20 ideal)
1966 - 1982 =3D 16 years =3D bear market ( = active=20 trading  required)   
1982-1999 =3D 17 years =3Dbull market ( buy and = hold, CANSLIM is=20 ideal)
2000-present =3D  2++++ years =3D bear = market (active=20 trading required)
 
2)  How low will it go and how long will it=20 take?
It COULD be a long wait, then again it could = only be a=20 few more days.
 
 
3)  However, looking at history again, = September is=20 usually one of the worst months, and October tends to be one of the = most=20 turbulent in each year, as the bright boys and girls who run Mutual = Funds try=20 to dress the portfolios to show that they hold no losers.... someone = else must=20 have taken the money! It is not the manager's fault!
 
4)  Just follow the advice of Marty Zweig: = "don't fight=20 the feds, don't fight the tape"!
Just go with the sector rotation and keep = trading =20 ACTIVELY!
----- Original Message -----
From:=20 Ira = Post
Sent: Saturday, July 20, 2002 = 5:21=20 AM
Subject: [CANSLIM] M - How = low will it=20 go.

I've been sitting out of the market = and this=20 discussion list because I don't think these market conditions are = suitable=20 for Canslim.  But I'm ready to get back into it once the market = turns=20 around.
 
My question is how much longer = before the=20 market turns and how low will it get?  I'd like to hear alot of = different opinons and people's reasons.  It may do us all some=20 good.
 
Ira
 

---
Outgoing mail is = certified Virus=20 Free.
Checked by AVG anti-virus system (http://www.grisoft.com).
Version: = 6.0.377 / Virus Database: 211 - Release Date:=20 7/15/02
- ------=_NextPart_000_0016_01C2306B.5FB18AA0-- - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Sun, 21 Jul 2002 04:11:33 EDT From: RWElmer@aol.com Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] M - How low will it go. - --part1_51.21425812.2a6bc6b5_boundary Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII" Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit Hello Ira, Hope you don't mind me intruding so as to make a recommendation regarding Fibonacci studies. Here's a link that will give you some background until Ernie answers. http://www.equis.com/free/taaz/fibonacci.html Good luck, Robert Elmer Redding, CA - --part1_51.21425812.2a6bc6b5_boundary Content-Type: text/html; charset="US-ASCII" Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit Hello Ira,

Hope you don't mind me intruding so as to make a recommendation regarding Fibonacci studies. Here's a link that will give you some background until Ernie answers.

http://www.equis.com/free/taaz/fibonacci.html

Good luck,

Robert Elmer
Redding, CA - --part1_51.21425812.2a6bc6b5_boundary-- - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Sun, 21 Jul 2002 04:33:24 -0400 From: "Ira Post" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] M - How low will it go. This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------=_NextPart_000_0026_01C2306F.C0846380 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Thanks Robert. I'll take a look at it. Sunday's a good day for things = like this;) Ira ----- Original Message -----=20 From: RWElmer@aol.com=20 To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20 Sent: Sunday, July 21, 2002 4:11 AM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] M - How low will it go. Hello Ira,=20 Hope you don't mind me intruding so as to make a recommendation = regarding Fibonacci studies. Here's a link that will give you some = background until Ernie answers.=20 http://www.equis.com/free/taaz/fibonacci.html=20 Good luck,=20 Robert Elmer=20 Redding, CA=20 --- Outgoing mail is certified Virus Free. Checked by AVG anti-virus system (http://www.grisoft.com). Version: 6.0.377 / Virus Database: 211 - Release Date: 7/15/02 - ------=_NextPart_000_0026_01C2306F.C0846380 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
Thanks Robert.  I'll take a look = at it. =20 Sunday's a good day for things like this;)
Ira
----- Original Message -----
From:=20 RWElmer@aol.com=20
Sent: Sunday, July 21, 2002 = 4:11 AM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] M - How = low will=20 it go.

Hello Ira, =

Hope you don't=20 mind me intruding so as to make a recommendation regarding Fibonacci = studies.=20 Here's a link that will give you some background until Ernie answers.=20

http://www.equis.c= om/free/taaz/fibonacci.html=20

Good luck,

Robert Elmer
Redding, CA=20
 

---
Outgoing mail=20 is certified Virus Free.
Checked by AVG anti-virus system (http://www.grisoft.com).
Version: = 6.0.377=20 / Virus Database: 211 - Release Date:=20 7/15/02
- ------=_NextPart_000_0026_01C2306F.C0846380-- - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Sun, 21 Jul 2002 10:14:02 -0500 From: "Alicia Lensing" Subject: [CANSLIM] Fibonacci This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------=_NextPart_000_00AB_01C2309F.56205CD0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Ira: I have used Fibs in my trading for years. Please visit the following = link for what I hope is a basic tutorial. Best of luck, Alicia Lensing http://www.tradingmarkets.com/.site/futures/education/Fibonacci/11202000-= 10116.cfm ----- Original Message -----=20 From: Ira Post=20 To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20 Sent: Sunday, July 21, 2002 2:58 AM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] M - How low will it go. Ernie, =20 I've been hearing alot about Fibonacci lately and would like to get a = backround in it. Can you recomend a website or book that would help? = Something easy to read would be best. =20 Thanks, Ira ----- Original Message -----=20 From: Hill, Ernie=20 To: 'canslim@lists.xmission.com'=20 Sent: Sunday, July 21, 2002 12:16 AM Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] M - How low will it go. Ira, =20 In my post made on 7-17 I said that the bounce I was expecting had = been made that day and that I expected the S&P to drop to at least 865 = by Monday. What I didn't say was that 845 was my next target. I also = posted on 7-13 that I expected a drop to the 759-782 level by 8-15 or = 8-16. =20 Bear with me on some of these numbers while I build my case. I am = going to talk about Fibonacci extensions a little bit. A Fibonacci = extension is measuring a current move by comparing it to recent moves in = the same direction. This is the series of numbers for these extensions = .236, .5, .618, 1.00, 1.236, 1.5, 1.618, & so on. =20 If we measure from the high on 5-17 to the low on 6-14 and multiply = the points by 1.618 and then subtract this number from the high on 6-18 = we get 838.74. =20 If we measure from the high on 6-18 to the low on 7-3 and multiply = the points by 1.382 and then subtract this number from the high on 7-8 = we get 847.22. We closed Friday at 847.76. =20 If we measure from the high on 6-18 to the low on 7-15 and multiply = the points by .5 and then subtract this number from the high on 7-17 we = get 844.44. The low on Friday was 842.14. =20 This is an impressive cluster of Fibonacci extensions all occurring = very near where the market ended up on Friday. This could be strong = enough support to signal a turn in the market from here. Generally this = type of support would provide a spring board from which to move up. = However, my timing model suggests that we will continue to work lower to = at least 7-24. Also the slope of the decline has become much sharper = suggesting to me that we finally saw some fear in this market. I = therefore, would not be surprised to see the market move down sharply = again on Monday. I also would not be surprised to see a one or two day = bounce from this level, and then a continuation of the decline. =20 As far as my forecast of 759-782 by 8-15 or 8-16 I stand by that = forecast with one modification, due to the fear that I see beginning to = be manifest in the market I think this level could be seen by an earlier = date specifically 7-25 or 7-26. And the 780 level looks to be the = stronger candidate. Here is the case for 780. =20 If we measure from the high on 3-19 to the low on 5-7 and multiply = the points by 2.618 and then subtract this number from the high on 5-17 = we get 779.79. =20 If we measure from the high on 6-18 to the low on 7-3 and multiply = the points by 1.382 and then subtract this number from the high on 7-17 = we get 780.18. =20 And if we measure from the high on 7-8 to the low on 7-15 and = multiply the points by 1.236 and then subtract this number from the high = on 7-17 we get 781.91. =20 This is a very tight cluster of Fibonacci extensions and suggests = that this could be the level where we can find an intermediate term = bottom. Not THE bottom, but a bottom that could spark a very strong bear = market rally. =20 In conclusion Friday could have been the intermediate term bottom at = 842.14, but my stuff suggests that the odds are in favor of at least one = more swift drop to the 780 level before the intermediate term bottom is = in. =20 E =20 =20 -----Original Message----- From: Ira Post [mailto:ip108@yahoo.com]=20 Sent: Saturday, July 20, 2002 4:21 AM To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Subject: [CANSLIM] M - How low will it go. =20 I've been sitting out of the market and this discussion list because = I don't think these market conditions are suitable for Canslim. But I'm = ready to get back into it once the market turns around. =20 My question is how much longer before the market turns and how low = will it get? I'd like to hear alot of different opinons and people's = reasons. It may do us all some good. =20 Ira =20 --- Outgoing mail is certified Virus Free. Checked by AVG anti-virus system (http://www.grisoft.com). Version: 6.0.377 / Virus Database: 211 - Release Date: 7/15/02 ****************************************************************** This email and any files transmitted with it from the ElPaso=20 Corporation are confidential and intended solely for the=20 use of the individual or entity to whom they are addressed.=20 If you have received this email in error please notify the=20 sender. ****************************************************************** - ------=_NextPart_000_00AB_01C2309F.56205CD0 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
Ira:
 
I have used Fibs in = my trading=20 for years.  Please visit the following link for what I hope is a = basic=20 tutorial.
 
Best of=20 luck,
 
Alicia=20 Lensing
 
 
http://www.tradingmarkets.com/.site/futures/education/= Fibonacci/11202000-10116.cfm
 
 
----- Original Message -----
From:=20 Ira = Post
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com =
Sent: Sunday, July 21, 2002 = 2:58 AM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] M - How = low will=20 it go.

Ernie,
 
I've been hearing alot about = Fibonacci lately and=20 would like to get a backround in it.  Can you recomend a website = or book=20 that would help? Something easy to read would be best.
 
Thanks,
Ira
----- Original Message -----
From:=20 Hill,=20 Ernie
To: 'canslim@lists.xmission.com' =
Sent: Sunday, July 21, 2002 = 12:16=20 AM
Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] M - = How low will=20 it go.

Ira,

 

In my = post made on=20 7-17 I said that the bounce I was expecting had been made that day = and that=20 I expected the S&P to drop to at least 865 by Monday. What I = didn't say=20 was that 845 was my next target. I also posted on 7-13 that I = expected a=20 drop to the 759-782 level by 8-15 or = 8-16.

 

Bear with = me on=20 some of these numbers while I build my case. I am going to talk = about=20 Fibonacci extensions a little bit. A Fibonacci extension is = measuring a=20 current move by comparing it to recent moves in the same direction. = This is=20 the series of numbers for these extensions .236, .5, .618, 1.00, = 1.236, 1.5,=20 1.618, & so on.

 

If we = measure from=20 the high on 5-17 to the low on 6-14 and multiply the points by 1.618 = and=20 then subtract this number from the high on 6-18 we get = 838.74.

 

If we = measure from=20 the high on 6-18 to the low on 7-3 and multiply the points by 1.382 = and then=20 subtract this number from the high on 7-8 we get 847.22. We = closed Friday=20 at 847.76.

 

If we = measure from=20 the high on 6-18 to the low on 7-15 and multiply the points by .5 = and then=20 subtract this number from the high on 7-17 we get = 844.44. The low = on Friday=20 was 842.14.

 

This is = an=20 impressive cluster of Fibonacci extensions all occurring very near = where the=20 market ended up on Friday. This could be strong enough support to = signal a=20 turn in the market from here. Generally this type of support would = provide a=20 spring board from which to move up. However, my timing model = suggests that=20 we will continue to work lower to at least 7-24. Also the slope of = the=20 decline has become much sharper suggesting to me that we finally saw = some=20 fear in this market. I therefore, would not be surprised to see the = market=20 move down sharply again on Monday. I also would not be surprised to = see a=20 one or two day bounce from this level, and then a continuation of = the=20 decline.

 

As far as = my=20 forecast of 759-782 by 8-15 or 8-16 I stand by that forecast with = one=20 modification, due to the fear that I see beginning to be manifest in = the=20 market I think this level could be seen by an earlier date = specifically 7-25=20 or 7-26. And the 780 level = looks to be=20 the stronger candidate. Here is the case for=20 780.

 

If we = measure from=20 the high on 3-19 to the low on 5-7 and multiply the points by 2.618 = and then=20 subtract this number from the high on 5-17 we get = 779.79.

 

If we = measure from=20 the high on 6-18 to the low on 7-3 and multiply the points by 1.382 = and then=20 subtract this number from the high on 7-17 we get = 780.18.

 

And if we = measure=20 from the high on 7-8 to the low on 7-15 and multiply the points by = 1.236 and=20 then subtract this number from the high on 7-17 we get = 781.91.

 

This is a = very=20 tight cluster of Fibonacci extensions and suggests that this could = be the=20 level where we can find an intermediate term bottom. Not THE bottom, = but a=20 bottom that could spark a very strong bear market=20 rally.

 

In = conclusion=20 Friday could have been the intermediate term bottom at 842.14, but = my stuff=20 suggests that the odds are in favor of at least one more=20 swift drop to the 780 level before the intermediate term = bottom is=20 in.

 

E

 

 

-----Original=20 Message-----
From: Ira Post=20 [mailto:ip108@yahoo.com]
Sent: Saturday, July 20,=20 2002 = 4:21=20 AM
To: = canslim@lists.xmission.com
Subject: [CANSLIM] M - How = low will it=20 go.

 

I've been sitting out = of the=20 market and this discussion list because I don't think these market=20 conditions are suitable for Canslim.  But I'm ready to get back = into it=20 once the market turns around.

 

My question is how = much longer=20 before the market turns and how low will it get?  I'd like to = hear alot=20 of different opinons and people's reasons.  It may do us all = some=20 good.

 

Ira

 


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