From: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com (canslim-digest) To: canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Subject: canslim-digest V2 #2659 Reply-To: canslim Sender: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Errors-To: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Precedence: bulk Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable X-No-Archive: yes canslim-digest Friday, July 26 2002 Volume 02 : Number 2659 In this issue: [CANSLIM] ctsh [CANSLIM] CTSH A/D (was: [CANSLIM] Was yesterday's rally for real?) Re: [CANSLIM] HTRN Re: [CANSLIM] HTRN [CANSLIM] FTI Consulting FCN Re: [CANSLIM] FTI Consulting FCN Re: [CANSLIM] FTI Consulting FCN Re: [CANSLIM] FTI Consulting FCN Re: [CANSLIM] FTI Consulting FCN [CANSLIM] short selling Re: [CANSLIM] ctsh Re: [CANSLIM] FTI Consulting FCN [CANSLIM] things I didn't know, or maybe forgot in my old age Re: [CANSLIM] FTI Consulting FCN Re: [CANSLIM] FTI Consulting FCN Re: [CANSLIM] Updated CANSLIM hunting list ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Date: Wed, 24 Jul 2002 21:55:57 -0400 From: "Donald Wallker" Subject: [CANSLIM] ctsh This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------=_NextPart_000_0008_01C2335C.E3EA34E0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable It looks like CTSH is is a winner. At this juncture its its a breakout = rated 91, 96, Bplus, A and B , and has advised that it expects to beat = projections in the coming quarter and fiscal end. =20 - ------=_NextPart_000_0008_01C2335C.E3EA34E0 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
It looks like CTSH is is a winner. At = this juncture=20 its its a breakout rated  91,  96, Bplus, A and B , and = has=20 advised that it expects to beat projections in the coming quarter=20 and fiscal end.  
- ------=_NextPart_000_0008_01C2335C.E3EA34E0-- - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 25 Jul 2002 08:52:45 -0400 From: "Donald Wallker" Subject: [CANSLIM] CTSH This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------=_NextPart_000_0007_01C233B8.C6815940 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable I see CTSH made the "real most active" today. Pretty good for an = offshore software developer. Perhaps they have a reputation for high = quality workmanship. Does anyone out their know? - ------=_NextPart_000_0007_01C233B8.C6815940 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
I see CTSH made the "real most active"=20 today.   Pretty good for an offshore software = developer. Perhaps=20 they have  a reputation for high quality workmanship. Does anyone = out their=20 know?
- ------=_NextPart_000_0007_01C233B8.C6815940-- - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 25 Jul 2002 09:15:55 -0500 From: "Katherine Malm" Subject: A/D (was: [CANSLIM] Was yesterday's rally for real?) This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------=_NextPart_000_00F4_01C233BB.E1A6C860 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Good point, Fred. I've never understood why IBD went to the +/- = designation in the first place. As A/D is already a summary measure of = action, I don't see how adding another 10 possible designations adds = much value. My guess is that the most it does is to add more noise to = the measurement. Katherine ----- Original Message -----=20 From: Fred Richards=20 To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20 Sent: Thursday, July 25, 2002 9:01 AM Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Was yesterday's rally for real? IBD as we have more history. Also, it has less noise than a large = number of measurements. To make my point. There is a real question about pollution. Of course, homosapiens have = lived on this planet for a few years. Now, because we have the ability to measure things to the micron = level, all of a sudden many things are "thought" to be hazardous when in = actuality, they have been in the environment for eons and the homosapien = has adapted to any changes. But suddenly, because we have the = capability to measure, the sky is falling. We have had mold, fungus, = and the plague in our earth since the beginning of time. But recently, = a few lawyers have decided that mold is dangerous to our health and now = our homeowners insurance policy premiums in Texas have skyrocketed. A = little common sense is lacking in the legal profession and our juries. Yep, I'm an old farmer. But if my corn fields look stressed from the = highway, I know that it is from a lack of rain and high temperatures. I = don't need a rain gauge calibrated in thousandth's of an inch and a = thermometer capable of measuring temperature in hundred's of a degree to = tell me that the corn is stressed. The same goes for many other aspects of life including the market. The question is simply this . . . are large institutions buying or = selling the stock. We can tell that by simply looking at the number = that hold it. Did it increase or not? Sometimes, I think that we = forget to see the forest by looking at all the trees.=20 -----Original Message----- From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com = [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Gene Ricci Sent: Thursday, July 25, 2002 8:40 AM To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Was yesterday's rally for real? Fred, IBD has A thru E, while DGO uses A thru E with the addition of = a Plus (+) or Minus (-) with their ACC/DIST.... which do you use? Thanks, Gene - ------=_NextPart_000_00F4_01C233BB.E1A6C860 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
Good point, Fred. I've never understood why IBD went to the +/- = designation=20 in the first place. As A/D is already a summary measure of action, I = don't see=20 how adding another 10 possible designations adds much value. My guess is = that=20 the most it does is to add more noise to the measurement.
 
Katherine
----- Original Message -----
From:=20 Fred = Richards
Sent: Thursday, July 25, 2002 = 9:01=20 AM
Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Was = yesterday's=20 rally for real?

IBD  as we have more history.  Also, it has less = noise than a=20 large number of measurements.
 
To=20 make my point.
 
There is a real question about pollution.  Of course, = homosapiens=20 have lived on this planet for a few years.
 
Now,=20 because we have the ability to measure things to the micron level, all = of a=20 sudden many things are "thought" to be hazardous when in actuality, = they have=20 been in the environment for eons and the homosapien has adapted to any = changes.  But suddenly, because we have the capability to = measure, the=20 sky is falling.  We have had mold, fungus, and the plague in our = earth=20 since the beginning of time.  But recently, a few lawyers have = decided=20 that mold is dangerous to our health and now our homeowners insurance = policy=20 premiums in Texas have skyrocketed.  A little common sense is = lacking in=20 the legal profession and our juries.
 
Yep,=20 I'm an old farmer. But if my corn fields look stressed from the = highway, I=20 know that it is from a lack of rain and high temperatures.  I = don't need=20 a rain gauge calibrated in thousandth's of an inch and a thermometer = capable=20 of measuring temperature in hundred's of a degree to tell me that the = corn is=20 stressed.
 
The=20 same goes for many other aspects of life including the=20 market.
 
The=20 question is simply this . . . are large institutions buying or selling = the=20 stock.  We can tell that by simply looking at the number that = hold=20 it.  Did it increase or not?  Sometimes, I think that = we forget=20 to see the forest by looking at all the trees.
-----Original Message-----
From:=20 owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com=20 [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Gene=20 Ricci
Sent: Thursday, July 25, 2002 8:40 AM
To:=20 canslim@lists.xmission.com
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Was = yesterday's=20 rally for real?

Fred, IBD has A thru E, while DGO = uses A=20 thru E with the addition of a Plus (+) or Minus (-) with their=20 ACC/DIST.... which do you use?
 
Thanks,
Gene
- ------=_NextPart_000_00F4_01C233BB.E1A6C860-- - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 25 Jul 2002 08:37:37 -0600 From: "Patrick Wahl" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] HTRN If the primary focus of most investors is to go long, and there has been almost no way to make money (a few exceptions) by going long, then you are correct, it has worked well because it has kept us out of the market. Simply not losing money is sometimes a good thing. On 24 Jul 2002 at 22:31, Mike Lucero wrote: > I was going to say CANSLIM hasn't worked very well since the bear market > began, but if you were following CANSLIM, you wouldn't be going against the > market. So, maybe CANSLIM is working fine. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 25 Jul 2002 17:20:15 EDT From: Spencer48@aol.com Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] HTRN Mike: I think Katherine has hit it. Of course, HTRN was clawed by the bear=20 Market-but I see the question as: Could HTRN's downfall been forecast based= =20 on its individual chart. I was wondering where Katherine came up with her=20 "churning" comment, but looking at the chart more closely one sees that the=20 CLOSINGS from 6/24-7/1 were only 77=A2 apart. Thus, while the range may hav= e=20 been relatively wide, the closes on very high volume indicated that HTRN jus= t=20 didn't have the strength to fight the bear any longer. Also, observe that on 7/12 and 7/13, while HTRN was trying to rise=20 again, it was doing so on around 50% ADV (and also less volume than the=20 preceding down days). Furthermore, the 2 down days before the plummet below= =20 the 50 DMA was on higher volume than the preceding up days. I believe, because of its high RS rating and its strong divergence in=20 its RS line, that HTRN will be one of the stocks that, as Katherine puts it=20 so sunnily, "...when Mr. M shines again", will take off-and we will see=20 HTRN's recent plunge as being the left down-side of a C&H. jans In a message dated 7/24/2002 6:16:02 PM Eastern Daylight Time,=20 kmalm@earthlink.net writes: << look at the actual price/volume pattern of HTRN. Essentially churning at=20 the highs for 4 or 5 days in late June (beginning around 6/24). That's a big= =20 warning sign >> - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 25 Jul 2002 17:36:29 EDT From: Chazmoore@aol.com Subject: [CANSLIM] FTI Consulting FCN - --part1_109.15fcbc22.2a71c95d_boundary Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII" Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit This is a nice looking chart with excellent fundamentals. I am afraid to jump in and buy while M is still all over the board, but I was wondering what others thought about this stock. Note it is in the same group with MCO which is also doing pretty good. Charley - --part1_109.15fcbc22.2a71c95d_boundary Content-Type: text/html; charset="US-ASCII" Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit This is a nice looking chart with excellent fundamentals. I am afraid to jump in and buy while M is still all over the board, but I was wondering what others thought about this stock. Note it is in the same group with MCO which is also doing pretty good.

Charley - --part1_109.15fcbc22.2a71c95d_boundary-- - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 25 Jul 2002 17:52:20 EDT From: Spencer48@aol.com Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] FTI Consulting FCN Charley: It is a nice looking chart: The weekly has been in an LLUR for 1=BD ye= ars=20 (where the 50 DMA is support), and the daily shows that it broke out of a=20 flat base today on around 7 times ADV (with the PP being at 37.35). =20 I also agree that with the market being as it is, I wouldn't currently=20 buy even such a powerful looking stock: Who knows how much staying power FC= N=20 will have, with the Bear rampaging through the markets. =20 One more thing: DGO shows that funds own 40% of the float. That would= =20 be too high for me in a bull (I think)-and in a bear it is definitely a=20 warning signal. Moreover the short interest ratio is 9.6, which means that=20 if profits are taken, the stock will plummet (short covering + 40% funds in=20 the float =3D NO-NO) jans In a message dated 7/25/2002 5:37:38 PM Eastern Daylight Time,=20 Chazmoore@aol.com writes: << his is a nice looking chart with excellent fundamentals. I am afraid to=20 jump=20 in and buy while M is still all over the board, but I was wondering what=20 others thought about this stock. Note it is in the same group with MCO whic= h=20 is also doing pretty good. >> - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 25 Jul 2002 15:07:41 -0700 From: "Ken MacFarlane" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] FTI Consulting FCN This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------=_NextPart_000_003C_01C233ED.057AE100 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable "I am afraid to jump in and buy while M is still all over the board" Rather than thinking that M has been 'all over the board', I would = suggest that you look at M as a ball rolling down the stairs. As it hits = each step, it bounces (sometimes several times) before inevitably = heading down to the next step. There has truly been no 'all over the = board' for quite sometime now.=20 Ken MacFarlane EEJob.net 8835 East Speedway . Suite D . Tucson . AZ . 85710 Phone: (520) 722-7976 . (888) 222-9549 Email: ken@eejob.net Staffing specialist for ASIC, RFIC and Analog IC design professionals. A Preferred Member of Top Echelon Network, the world's most successful = placement network.=20 - ------=_NextPart_000_003C_01C233ED.057AE100 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
"I am afraid to jump in and buy while M = is still=20 all over the board"
Rather than thinking that M has been = 'all over the=20 board', I would suggest that you look at M as a ball rolling down = the=20 stairs. As it hits each step, it bounces (sometimes several times) = before=20 inevitably heading down to the next step. There has truly been no = 'all=20 over the board' for quite sometime now.
Ken MacFarlane
EEJob.net
8835 = East Speedway =95=20 Suite D =95 Tucson =95 AZ =95 85710
Phone: (520) 722-7976 =95 (888)=20 222-9549
Email: ken@eejob.net
Staffing specialist for ASIC, RFIC and Analog IC design=20 professionals.
A Preferred Member of Top Echelon = Network, the=20 world's most successful placement network.
- ------=_NextPart_000_003C_01C233ED.057AE100-- - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 25 Jul 2002 18:07:19 EDT From: Chazmoore@aol.com Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] FTI Consulting FCN - --part1_12e.14d9e8b3.2a71d097_boundary Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII" Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit Thanks jans, I appreciate your comments. I missed the short interest and high fund ownership. (I'll bet the shorts are sweating today.) Charley - --part1_12e.14d9e8b3.2a71d097_boundary Content-Type: text/html; charset="US-ASCII" Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit Thanks jans, I appreciate your comments. I missed the short interest and high fund ownership. (I'll bet the shorts are sweating today.)

Charley - --part1_12e.14d9e8b3.2a71d097_boundary-- - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 25 Jul 2002 18:08:47 EDT From: Chazmoore@aol.com Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] FTI Consulting FCN - --part1_d0.2a4afecb.2a71d0ef_boundary Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII" Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit A slip of the tongue Ken. Of course you are correct. Charley - --part1_d0.2a4afecb.2a71d0ef_boundary Content-Type: text/html; charset="US-ASCII" Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit A slip of the tongue Ken. Of course you are correct. Charley - --part1_d0.2a4afecb.2a71d0ef_boundary-- - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 25 Jul 2002 20:41:10 -0600 From: "Patrick Wahl" Subject: [CANSLIM] short selling Thought this quote from an Alan Farley column was sort of amusing, I put the link to the column below this excerpt - A pro recently joked the bear market will end when Joe Sixpack quits his job so he can sell short for a living. Of course, it was Joe who led the charge in the bull's final days, and got his head handed to him for the effort. In other words, it will be time to go long in a big way when the public finally gets around to selling short. Short selling is the hottest game in town these days, for obvious reasons. But it's still not easy to make money selling first, and buying later. In fact, most of us can look at plummeting charts for hours, and still jump in at exactly the wrong time. This is one of the great truths of short selling. http://www.hardrightedge.com/realmoney1.htm - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 25 Jul 2002 23:04:35 -0400 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] ctsh This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------=_NextPart_000_004E_01C2342F.A4F8A0E0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Donald, I see the real b/o as 7/16, both volume and price movement much more = dramatic than todays 1.5X ADV. If you view it on a weekly chart, you = could argue for a longer term c&h than what I based my comments on in = last Saturday's WWW column. In that case, today was just another piece = of the handle building. - ----- Original Message -----=20 From: Donald Wallker=20 To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20 Sent: Wednesday, July 24, 2002 9:55 PM Subject: [CANSLIM] ctsh It looks like CTSH is is a winner. At this juncture its its a breakout = rated 91, 96, Bplus, A and B , and has advised that it expects to beat = projections in the coming quarter and fiscal end. =20 - ------=_NextPart_000_004E_01C2342F.A4F8A0E0 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
Donald,
 
I see the real b/o as 7/16, both volume and = price movement=20 much more dramatic than todays 1.5X ADV. If you view it on a weekly = chart, you=20 could argue for a longer term c&h than what I based my comments on = in last=20 Saturday's WWW column. In that case, today was just another piece of the = handle=20 building.
 
----- Original Message -----=20
From: Donald = Wallker
Sent: Wednesday, July 24, 2002 9:55 PM
Subject: [CANSLIM] ctsh

It looks like CTSH is is a winner. At = this juncture=20 its its a breakout rated  91,  96, Bplus, A and B , and = has=20 advised that it expects to beat projections in the coming quarter=20 and fiscal end.  
- ------=_NextPart_000_004E_01C2342F.A4F8A0E0-- - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 25 Jul 2002 23:15:48 -0400 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] FTI Consulting FCN maybe I am so tired I am completely brain dead, but don't understand the comment on the short position. The stock has been up steadily for a long time, and the short position is now at 9.6 days, up 23% from the last report, so the total shares short is still growing. That means the shorters are losing their shirt, not have any profits, as they would on average have been shorting at lower prices. If they bite the bullet and take their loss, they are buying, not selling, thus adding to the buy side demand that has been driving the stock higher. I do agree that a 40% funds ownership in this market is scary - ----- Original Message ----- From: To: Sent: Thursday, July 25, 2002 5:52 PM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] FTI Consulting FCN Charley: It is a nice looking chart: The weekly has been in an LLUR for 1½ years (where the 50 DMA is support), and the daily shows that it broke out of a flat base today on around 7 times ADV (with the PP being at 37.35). I also agree that with the market being as it is, I wouldn't currently buy even such a powerful looking stock: Who knows how much staying power FCN will have, with the Bear rampaging through the markets. One more thing: DGO shows that funds own 40% of the float. That would be too high for me in a bull (I think)-and in a bear it is definitely a warning signal. Moreover the short interest ratio is 9.6, which means that if profits are taken, the stock will plummet (short covering + 40% funds in the float = NO-NO) jans In a message dated 7/25/2002 5:37:38 PM Eastern Daylight Time, Chazmoore@aol.com writes: << his is a nice looking chart with excellent fundamentals. I am afraid to jump in and buy while M is still all over the board, but I was wondering what others thought about this stock. Note it is in the same group with MCO which is also doing pretty good. >> - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 25 Jul 2002 23:41:35 -0400 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] things I didn't know, or maybe forgot in my old age From The Motley Fool: First, why is it called a bear market? Supposedly, because bears strike things down with their paws -- in a downward sweeping motion. A rising stock market is called a bull market because bulls swing their horns upward to strike. Just thought you might like to know Tom Worley stkguru@bellsouth.net AIM: TexWorley - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 26 Jul 2002 00:33:29 EDT From: Spencer48@aol.com Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] FTI Consulting FCN Tom: The number of shorts is derived monthly (even though the volume may change daily)-so the +23% short interest is not really relevant, in my opinion, due to the fact that you are comparing the short sales 2 months ago with last month (ie. it was growing, but is it still?). And my observation concerned yesterday and today. Thus, although I can't be sure, it looks to me like the chart shows that FCN surged due to the shorts covering their postions. To me it doesn't make any difference whether they are profiting or "biting the bullet and taking their loss". My point is that the stock is not showing strength: The only reason it is going higher is that shorts are covering their postion. Its rate of change is not keeping up with its price rise-as seen in the turning over of the 50 DMA, and the fact that the stock itself (excepting today) has not done to much since early May. I conclude that there was short covering because the market is extremely OverSold; some arrests were made yesterday in the SEC's Executive Derby (and that added impetus to the short covering); volume was very high today (I concede this could be due to the strength of FCN-but in this market I doubt it. Although to make your point, the RS-line has been in very strong divergence recently). And lastly, because there are so many funds in this stock-and if funds were covering their shorts, then volume would naturally be very high (as it was today). jans In a message dated 7/25/2002 11:27:15 PM Eastern Daylight Time, stkguru@bellsouth.net writes: << maybe I am so tired I am completely brain dead, but don't understand the comment on the short position. The stock has been up steadily for a long time, and the short position is now at 9.6 days, up 23% from the last report, so the total shares short is still growing. That means the shorters are losing their shirt..... I do agree that a 40% funds ownership in this market is scary ----- Original Message ----- From: To: Sent: Thursday, July 25, 2002 5:52 PM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] FTI Consulting FCN One more thing: DGO shows that funds own 40% of the float. That would be too high for me in a bull (I think)-and in a bear it is definitely a warning signal. Moreover the short interest ratio is 9.6, which means that if profits are taken, the stock will plummet (short covering + 40% funds in the float = NO-NO) jans - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 26 Jul 2002 07:00:33 -0400 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] FTI Consulting FCN I would certainly agree that the 9X ADV volume of yesterday had to include massive short covering. The 9.6 days short, however, is as of 7/15/02, less than two weeks ago, and represented about 1.8 million shares or 10% of the float. You don't get a 30% spike in one day on heavy volume without a lot of reasons, and short covering certainly contributed. But a short trader also learns, if successful, that some stocks shouldn't be shorted. This one has risen nicely despite active shorting in a lousy market. Whether the short traders that covered this week will now rush back in to try again remains to be seen, but shorts have not controlled this stock so far, I see no reason right now for that to change. - ----- Original Message ----- From: To: Sent: Friday, July 26, 2002 12:33 AM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] FTI Consulting FCN Tom: The number of shorts is derived monthly (even though the volume may change daily)-so the +23% short interest is not really relevant, in my opinion, due to the fact that you are comparing the short sales 2 months ago with last month (ie. it was growing, but is it still?). And my observation concerned yesterday and today. Thus, although I can't be sure, it looks to me like the chart shows that FCN surged due to the shorts covering their postions. To me it doesn't make any difference whether they are profiting or "biting the bullet and taking their loss". My point is that the stock is not showing strength: The only reason it is going higher is that shorts are covering their postion. Its rate of change is not keeping up with its price rise-as seen in the turning over of the 50 DMA, and the fact that the stock itself (excepting today) has not done to much since early May. I conclude that there was short covering because the market is extremely OverSold; some arrests were made yesterday in the SEC's Executive Derby (and that added impetus to the short covering); volume was very high today (I concede this could be due to the strength of FCN-but in this market I doubt it. Although to make your point, the RS-line has been in very strong divergence recently). And lastly, because there are so many funds in this stock-and if funds were covering their shorts, then volume would naturally be very high (as it was today). jans In a message dated 7/25/2002 11:27:15 PM Eastern Daylight Time, stkguru@bellsouth.net writes: << maybe I am so tired I am completely brain dead, but don't understand the comment on the short position. The stock has been up steadily for a long time, and the short position is now at 9.6 days, up 23% from the last report, so the total shares short is still growing. That means the shorters are losing their shirt..... I do agree that a 40% funds ownership in this market is scary ----- Original Message ----- From: To: Sent: Thursday, July 25, 2002 5:52 PM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] FTI Consulting FCN One more thing: DGO shows that funds own 40% of the float. That would be too high for me in a bull (I think)-and in a bear it is definitely a warning signal. Moreover the short interest ratio is 9.6, which means that if profits are taken, the stock will plummet (short covering + 40% funds in the float = NO-NO) jans - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 26 Jul 2002 06:53:24 -0700 From: Ian Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Updated CANSLIM hunting list This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - --Boundary_(ID_Rcp5rWp6ZM9WH0fyGf1ukg) Content-type: text/plain; charset=iso-8859-1 Content-transfer-encoding: quoted-printable Katherine: Well spoken. I suspect thatone of the characteristics of this kind of = market will be the length of time a company show good fundamental growth = before strong technicals kick in. When the market is in long-term bull = mode, its easy to be patient and wait 4-5 quarters to confirm strong = fundamentals - but in a sideways/rotating market, we are likely to see = good technical responses to just 1 or 2 strong fundamental quarters - = and the whole technical cycle can easily play out within 6 months. Sell = rules will become the primary tool of any successful trader. FInally, I think CANSLIM tools provide wonderful mining for good shorts = - - look for companies with strong RS, with shaky fundamentals, high = historical valuations, whose charts are rolling over and screaming = 'sell' if you were long the stock. Cheers, Ian ----- Original Message -----=20 From: Katherine Malm=20 To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20 Sent: Tuesday, July 23, 2002 1:36 PM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Updated CANSLIM hunting list Hi jans, I suppose that I'll have to refer back to something I mentioned on the = list late last year, and that is, I still believe that we are in for = 10-15 years of sideways market, similar to the '64-'80 period. If that = is so, then we are in for a period of upwaves and downwaves, with little = progress being made in the market averages overall during those years. = But I believe that history proves that the stocks that go up are those = with the core CANSLIM characteristics of sustainable growth and superior = fundamentals. The difference between what we saw in the Great Bull = market of the 90's and what we'll see upcoming, however, is that, = because equities will not be the best investments based on *average* = returns, there will be less money in the equities markets and therefore = it will tend to rotate from one winner to the next more quickly. For = that, CANSLIM gives us excellent and simple tools to find what is = working *at the moment*, then gives us disciplined rules to follow for = exit when the move is over. Bottom line is that you will never be able = to create an uber-list of stocks that will give you more than an = intermediate-term ride, but instead, will always have to refresh that = list with new blood. Even during the Big Bear, there have been countless = examples of stocks with growth characteristics that have done very well = during the upwaves, but fear, ennui, lack of discipline, etc. have kept = investors from taking advantage of those moves. Bottom line? Our mining = techniques have to be dynamic, lists must be constantly refreshed, and = technicals should always lead the way to the winners. Something that I = think often gets lost in the noise of CANSLIM is that fundamentals will = always lag technicals, and so, in my mind, carry far less weight in the = initial mining, and for the most part carry no weight in entry/exit = points. That may seem like I'm contradicting what I said earlier about = selecting stocks with sustainable growth and superior fundamentals and = it isn't intended that way. Instead, I'm simply saying that we should = not *start* with fundamentals to find good quality candidates. Lastly, = as we've discussed before on th list, its highly likely that the kinds = of companies that will demonstrate growth characteristics in the = upcoming years may be mundane businesses, so best to have mining = techniques that don't focus you exclusively on tech stocks. Katherine PS....best way to take advantage of a sideways market is to trade only = in the direction of the prevailing wave and complement your long = strategy with a good shorting strategy (for cash accounts) for = downwaves (or use Rydex contra-funds in tax advantaged accounts). = Hopefully, everybody has been using the last few years to perfect those = shorting strategies. Of course, that's not CANSLIM, so can't be = discussed here! ----- Original Message -----=20 From: Spencer48@aol.com=20 To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20 Sent: Tuesday, July 23, 2002 3:09 PM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Updated CANSLIM hunting list Ernie & Katherine: Ernie, I'm sorry to see you leave the list. However, I = understand why=20 you intend to be not even a "lurker". Canslim is not for shorts, = and its=20 formula relies on the Market being a bull before buying stocks. And = if the=20 Market.-according to your calculations-won't rally till = March/03.... =20 But I do want to thank you for your responses when I had Elliot = Wave=20 queries. I appreciate the replies, and I did re-learn and learn = things about=20 Wave analysis which I had forgotten or neglected to take to heart. = Katherine, I know WON says to make a shopping list of stocks = that look=20 good during bear markets-but this bear has been going on nearly 3 = years. =20 Moreover, how can anyone trust the earning, sales, and = cash-flow figures=20 on which EPS and RS are based (not to mention trust annual and = quarterly=20 earnings and sales) until at least after August 14th (when CEOs and = CFOs=20 must certify their figures or face jail time). I've had a shopping list for nearly 3 years, and the stocks in = the list=20 keep changing (I've removed from my list charts that show stocks = which have=20 fallen below their 200 DMA; or charts whose earnings in the current = quarters=20 are less than WON-ish; or charts whose RS's are plummeting). =20 As an example of my less than sanguine attitude: IBD's screen = today=20 includes stocks that have increased earnings the last few quarters. = No=20 doubt, some of those stocks will be deleted next quarter-and the = quarter=20 after that, and the quarter...etc. =20 Excuse my rant, I know your right: Compiling a shopping list = of nice=20 stocks now is a good idea. I'll not only know what stocks to look = at (when=20 the Bull wakes up), but during this interim, looking at those = stock's charts=20 gives me the opportunity to hone my technical skills. But the = passage: =20 "When Mr. M is ready to shine..." was just too much. jans In a message dated 7/23/2002 10:45:03 AM Eastern Daylight Time,=20 kmalm@earthlink.net writes: << Now's the best time of all to get your shopping lists ready. With = so few=20 stocks to evaluate, you can use your time for effective due = diligence. When=20 Mr. M is ready to shine, you'll be ready with your short list. At = the market=20 bottom in '98, very few stocks made the cut, among them? AOL and = YHOO, both=20 of which had great runs over the next couple of years. >> - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - --Boundary_(ID_Rcp5rWp6ZM9WH0fyGf1ukg) Content-type: text/html; charset=iso-8859-1 Content-transfer-encoding: 7BIT
Katherine:
 
Well spoken. I suspect thatone of the characteristics of this kind of market will be the length of time a company show good fundamental growth before strong technicals kick in. When the market is in long-term bull mode, its easy to be patient and wait 4-5 quarters to confirm strong fundamentals - but in a sideways/rotating market, we are likely to see good technical responses to just 1 or 2 strong fundamental quarters - and the whole technical cycle can easily play out within 6 months. Sell rules will become the primary tool of any successful trader.
 
FInally, I think CANSLIM tools provide wonderful mining for good shorts - look for companies with strong RS, with shaky fundamentals, high historical valuations, whose charts are rolling over and screaming 'sell' if you were long the stock.
 
Cheers,
 
Ian
 
 
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Tuesday, July 23, 2002 1:36 PM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Updated CANSLIM hunting list

Hi jans,
 
I suppose that I'll have to refer back to something I mentioned on the list late last year, and that is, I still believe that we are in for 10-15 years of sideways market, similar to the '64-'80 period. If that is so, then we are in for a period of upwaves and downwaves, with little progress being made in the market averages overall during those years. But I believe that history proves that the stocks that go up are those with the core CANSLIM characteristics of sustainable growth and superior fundamentals. The difference between what we saw in the Great Bull market of the 90's and what we'll see upcoming, however, is that, because equities will not be the best investments based on *average* returns, there will be less money in the equities markets and therefore it will tend to rotate from one winner to the next more quickly. For that, CANSLIM gives us excellent and simple tools to find what is working *at the moment*, then gives us disciplined rules to follow for exit when the move is over. Bottom line is that you will never be able to create an uber-list of stocks that will give you more than an intermediate-term ride, but instead, will always have to refresh that list with new blood. Even during the Big Bear, there have been countless examples of stocks with growth characteristics that have done very well during the upwaves, but fear, ennui, lack of discipline, etc. have kept investors from taking advantage of those moves. Bottom line? Our mining techniques have to be dynamic, lists must be constantly refreshed, and technicals should always lead the way to the winners. Something that I think often gets lost in the noise of CANSLIM is that fundamentals will always lag technicals, and so, in my mind, carry far less weight in the initial mining, and for the most part carry no weight in entry/exit points. That may seem like I'm contradicting what I said earlier about selecting stocks with sustainable growth and superior fundamentals and it isn't intended that way. Instead, I'm simply saying that we should not *start* with fundamentals to find good quality candidates. Lastly, as we've discussed before on th list, its highly likely that the kinds of companies that will demonstrate growth characteristics in the upcoming years may be mundane businesses, so best to have mining techniques that don't focus you exclusively on tech stocks.
 
Katherine
 
PS....best way to take advantage of a sideways market is to trade only in the direction of the prevailing wave and complement your long strategy with a good shorting strategy (for cash accounts)  for downwaves (or use Rydex contra-funds in tax advantaged accounts). Hopefully, everybody has been using the last few years to perfect those shorting strategies. Of course, that's not CANSLIM, so can't be discussed here!
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Tuesday, July 23, 2002 3:09 PM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Updated CANSLIM hunting list

Ernie & Katherine:

     Ernie, I'm sorry to see you leave the list.  However, I understand why
you intend to be not even a "lurker".  Canslim is not for shorts, and its
formula relies on the Market being a bull before buying stocks.  And if the
Market.-according to your calculations-won't  rally till March/03.... 
     But I do want to thank you for your responses when I had Elliot Wave
queries.  I appreciate the replies, and I did re-learn and learn things about
Wave analysis which I had forgotten or neglected to take to heart.  

      Katherine, I know WON says to make a shopping list of stocks that look
good during bear markets-but this bear has been going on nearly 3 years. 
     Moreover, how can anyone trust the earning, sales, and cash-flow figures
on which EPS and RS are based (not to mention trust annual and quarterly
earnings and sales) until at least after  August 14th (when CEOs and CFOs
must certify their figures or face jail time).
     I've had a shopping list for nearly 3 years, and the stocks in the list
keep changing (I've removed from my list charts that show stocks which have
fallen below their 200 DMA; or charts whose earnings in the current quarters
are less than WON-ish; or charts whose RS's are plummeting). 
     As an example of my less than sanguine attitude: IBD's screen today
includes stocks that have increased earnings the last few quarters.  No
doubt, some of those stocks will be deleted next quarter-and the quarter
after that, and the quarter...etc. 
     Excuse my rant, I know your right:  Compiling a shopping list of nice
stocks now is a good idea.  I'll not only know what stocks to look at (when
the Bull wakes up), but during this interim, looking at those stock's charts
gives me the opportunity to hone my technical skills.  But the passage: 
"When Mr. M is ready to shine..." was just too much.

jans


In a message dated 7/23/2002 10:45:03 AM Eastern Daylight Time,
kmalm@earthlink.net writes:

<< Now's the best time of all to get your shopping lists ready. With so few
stocks to evaluate, you can use your time for effective due diligence. When
Mr. M is ready to shine, you'll be ready with your short list. At the market
bottom in '98, very few stocks made the cut, among them? AOL and YHOO, both
of which had great runs over the next couple of years. >>

-
-To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com"
-In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or
-"unsubscribe canslim".  Do not use quotes in your email.
- --Boundary_(ID_Rcp5rWp6ZM9WH0fyGf1ukg)-- - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ End of canslim-digest V2 #2659 ****************************** To unsubscribe to canslim-digest, send an email to "majordomo@xmission.com" with "unsubscribe canslim-digest" in the body of the message. For information on digests or retrieving files and old messages send "help" to the same address. Do not use quotes in your message.