From: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com (canslim-digest) To: canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Subject: canslim-digest V2 #268 Reply-To: canslim Sender: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Errors-To: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Precedence: bulk X-No-Archive: yes canslim-digest Thursday, June 4 1998 Volume 02 : Number 268 In this issue: [CANSLIM] Re: Stocksite.com Re: [CANSLIM] Mini taking a few lumps. Re: [CANSLIM] Mini taking a few lumps. [CANSLIM] Re: What happened to this group?--Tim (and Johan) Re: [CANSLIM] Mini taking a few lumps. [CANSLIM] Re: canslim-digest V2 #267 Re: [CANSLIM] Mini taking a few lumps. [CANSLIM] M and a couple of stocks Re: [CANSLIM] Need some advice Re: [CANSLIM] Re: Head and Shoulders for the Nasdaq composite [CANSLIM] Re. DG-Online Re: [CANSLIM] Members - a drum roll please Re: [CANSLIM] Members - a drum roll please Re: Jans, your answer: (was [CANSLIM] Re: What happened to this group?--Tom) Re: [CANSLIM] M and a couple of stocks ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Date: Thu, 4 Jun 1998 18:44:57 -0700 (PDT) From: dbphoenix Subject: [CANSLIM] Re: Stocksite.com I have been exploring this site further and have discovered that if you select "Income Statement" under "Financials", you will receive earnings before as well as after charges, both primary and diluted. Who could ask for anything more? Thanks again, Bill. - --Db _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - - ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 4 Jun 1998 21:51:40 -0400 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Mini taking a few lumps. David, if we are talking about the same MINI (Mobile Mini Inc.), I trust your comment about trading 250 mil shares was intended as a joke. Leastways, none of my charting services show that kind of volume on a stock with 6.7 mil shares outstanding. While the CS elements remain strong, I dropped it earlier this week from my watch list due to the severity of the correction. When It broke important support at the 9.5 - 9.75 level, it was significant. I will still watch it till I get the new DG books on Sunday, but I am not considering buying it, just waiting to get the new charts to justify deleting it. BTW, MACD has been increasingly negative on it. Don't be influenced by the fact that you made money on it before, treat a "second trip" as if it was an entirely new stock that you just stumbled upon, and evaluate accordingly. Tom W - -----Original Message----- From: David Reid To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Date: Thursday, June 04, 1998 9:27 PM Subject: [CANSLIM] Mini taking a few lumps. >> Any body besides me been watching mini?? > >I have been in and out of this stock once already, and made 25%.It is back >down pretty good right now. 9 1/8 from a high of over 12. >I was wondering if anybody in the group had any ideas on why. >I am thinking about getting back in it tomorrow. >It traded over 250 million shares a couple of days ago which is very heavy for >this stock. >Any ideas?? > >Dave the rookie > > > > >- > - - ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 04 Jun 1998 22:02:12 -0700 From: David Reid Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Mini taking a few lumps. sorry tom I meant thousand I am a little stupid sometimes sorry Dave the rookie Tom Worley wrote: > David, if we are talking about the same MINI (Mobile Mini Inc.), I > trust your comment about trading 250 mil shares was intended as a > joke. Leastways, none of my charting services show that kind of volume > on a stock with 6.7 mil shares outstanding. > > While the CS elements remain strong, I dropped it earlier this week > from my watch list due to the severity of the correction. When It > broke important support at the 9.5 - 9.75 level, it was significant. I > will still watch it till I get the new DG books on Sunday, but I am > not considering buying it, just waiting to get the new charts to > justify deleting it. BTW, MACD has been increasingly negative on it. > > Don't be influenced by the fact that you made money on it before, > treat a "second trip" as if it was an entirely new stock that you just > stumbled upon, and evaluate accordingly. > > Tom W > > -----Original Message----- > From: David Reid > To: canslim@lists.xmission.com > Date: Thursday, June 04, 1998 9:27 PM > Subject: [CANSLIM] Mini taking a few lumps. > > >> Any body besides me been watching mini?? > > > >I have been in and out of this stock once already, and made 25%.It is > back > >down pretty good right now. 9 1/8 from a high of over 12. > >I was wondering if anybody in the group had any ideas on why. > >I am thinking about getting back in it tomorrow. > >It traded over 250 million shares a couple of days ago which is very > heavy for > >this stock. > >Any ideas?? > > > >Dave the rookie > > > > > > > > > >- > > > > - - - ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 4 Jun 1998 19:16:57 -0700 (PDT) From: dbphoenix Subject: [CANSLIM] Re: What happened to this group?--Tim (and Johan) <> As I said before, I'm not a salesman for WOWS. It just saves me a lot of time. And there are now a number of sites on the net which, to a large extent, will accomplish the same objectives for nothing, though the investor will have to put the information together himself. For example, the Advanced Search page at the dailystocks.com site is excellent. The database seems fairly large--around 4000 stocks--and the screening criteria are as good as you'll find most anywhere. I recommend it highly. Marry that with the sites I've mentioned that provide RS, EPS, A/D, GS, etc., (and Bill's excellent stocksite.com) and you're ready to go on your core list. But the other aspect of WOWS, at least, is the charting. Anyone who doesn't want to spend a dime can do no better than bigcharts.com. But bigcharts has its limitations, as I've already detailed. Therefore, one is not required to spend anything, whether on software, Daily Graphs, IBD, subscription-based sites, or anything else, in order to be a competent and successful CS investor (just as one can run a home office with one phone line, an IBM Selectric, a Victor adding machine, and filing cabinets). Some programs, however, such as those just mentioned, will empower you even further, aside from saving you great chunks of time. - --Db _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - - ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 4 Jun 1998 22:39:04 -0400 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Mini taking a few lumps. David, Nothing stupid about it, if you were stupid, you wouldn't be here trying to make intelligent decisions about investing. You could be spending your time at Motley Fool or Silicon Investor, listening to "stories" instead. Tom W - -----Original Message----- From: David Reid To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Date: Thursday, June 04, 1998 9:58 PM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Mini taking a few lumps. >sorry tom I meant thousand >I am a little stupid sometimes >sorry >Dave the rookie > >Tom Worley wrote: > >> David, if we are talking about the same MINI (Mobile Mini Inc.), I >> trust your comment about trading 250 mil shares was intended as a >> joke. Leastways, none of my charting services show that kind of volume >> on a stock with 6.7 mil shares outstanding. >> >> While the CS elements remain strong, I dropped it earlier this week >> from my watch list due to the severity of the correction. When It >> broke important support at the 9.5 - 9.75 level, it was significant. I >> will still watch it till I get the new DG books on Sunday, but I am >> not considering buying it, just waiting to get the new charts to >> justify deleting it. BTW, MACD has been increasingly negative on it. >> >> Don't be influenced by the fact that you made money on it before, >> treat a "second trip" as if it was an entirely new stock that you just >> stumbled upon, and evaluate accordingly. >> >> Tom W >> >> -----Original Message----- >> From: David Reid >> To: canslim@lists.xmission.com >> Date: Thursday, June 04, 1998 9:27 PM >> Subject: [CANSLIM] Mini taking a few lumps. >> >> >> Any body besides me been watching mini?? >> > >> >I have been in and out of this stock once already, and made 25%.It is >> back >> >down pretty good right now. 9 1/8 from a high of over 12. >> >I was wondering if anybody in the group had any ideas on why. >> >I am thinking about getting back in it tomorrow. >> >It traded over 250 million shares a couple of days ago which is very >> heavy for >> >this stock. >> >Any ideas?? >> > >> >Dave the rookie >> > >> > >> > >> > >> >- >> > >> >> - > > > > >- > - - ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 4 Jun 1998 22:42:04 EDT From: Subject: [CANSLIM] Re: canslim-digest V2 #267 Jeffrey, I just read your Canslim post concerning A/D, and you seem to be undecided about the market based on Adv./Declines and High/Lows. However, the A/D is in very weak divergence, as I understand A/D, as the Dow had hit around 8800 in late April and June 3rd but the A/D declined even more than the late April Dow lows. Also, High/Lows are very discouraging. Even today (June 4th) as the market rose, highs were only about 1/2 lows (ie., highs were 38 and lows were 81-even as the Dow closed 66 points higher). In what way, and why do you believe that "both offer hope that we are nearing the end of this correction?" jans - - ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 04 Jun 1998 22:49:58 -0400 From: "Frank V. Wolynski" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Mini taking a few lumps. Think strength Dave! Real Rocket Ships point upwards! Frank Wolynski (Often wrong, plan accordingly!) At 21:30 6/4/98 -0700, David Reid wrote: >> Any body besides me been watching mini?? > >I have been in and out of this stock once already, and made 25%.It is back >down pretty good right now. 9 1/8 from a high of over 12. >I was wondering if anybody in the group had any ideas on why. >I am thinking about getting back in it tomorrow. >It traded over 250 million shares a couple of days ago which is very heavy for >this stock. >Any ideas?? > >Dave the rookie > - - ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 04 Jun 1998 22:50:34 -0400 From: Craig Griffin Subject: [CANSLIM] M and a couple of stocks You folks have been writing more than I have had time to read for a while now, but the posts I have read read were generally interesting and thought provoking. Thanks. Today's NASDAQ rally had the feeling of something more real than the last few. Like the market is getting it's footing a bit - maybe - we will see. Gut feel - not Canslim - sorry. It may be because my much narrowed list of owned and watched stocks did well today. Not a very good basis for judgement. They are mostly too far gone to chase now - but these are the ones I've noticed that are very constructive ... ABTX RADAF (b/o today) EAII KTIE Interestingly - both ABTX and KTIE are growing by acquisitions. RADAF and EAII are both software related (games and 3D respectively). EAII and KTIE are stocks I have mentioned on the list in the recent past. Both are way extended now. Same is true of ABTX - it is also rumour driven at the moment (the industry it is in is consolidating - Monsanto & DeKalb genetics most recently). Amongst the big caps, I've noticed that WMT, KM, and COST have been doing well lately (COST looks like it might be ready to go again). Wonder why the discount retailers are so popular? I know KM is a big turnaround and WMT had surprise earnings and made positive comments. I believe COST is a turnaround that is a year or two ahead of KM in getting its act together. Is it a flight to safety driving these guys or just heavy consumer spending? Anybody noticed which industry groups or stocks seem to be firming up as potential new leaders (assuming the correction doesn't form a new downleg)? Well back to other stuff and continued lurking... Regards, Craig - - ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 4 Jun 1998 23:12:42 -0400 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Need some advice Buyouts can be tricky. Cash buyouts are invariably stronger than stock swaps, such as you have here. In a cash buyout, if the acquiring co has the cash or credit lines to do the buyout without addl financing, then that strengthens the deal. In a stock swap, the value of your shares become determined by the mkt perception of the value of the shares you will recieve. Best to investigate the acquiring co stock in that case. I held a lot of shares in a stock being acquired for $5.00 cash plus a kicker, in part because the mkt was only valuing it at $4.50 at the time, and in part because I valued the kicker at 25 to 32 cents even tho the CFO and CEO both valued it at 11 cents and told me publicly that I was being overly optimistic (final valuation for the kicker: 29 cents!!, heh, heh, heh, I love it when I can beat the CFO's own estimates). Thus, by waiting for the redemption of my shares, I gained another 30% plus profit on my cost basis, versus settling for about a net of 80% (5.29 vs about 4.50 on a cost basis of under 2.50). The advantage of a cash buyout is that it sets a specific dollar value on your shares, so easy to measure what the mkt will pay vs what you can get by holding on and taking the risk of the deal falling apart (which is something you have to evaluate). In the case of a stock swap, the value of your shares is predetermined by how the "other" shares are trading, so would suggest you investigate whether they are shares you would be likely to buy independent of your ownership of shares to be acquired. Generally, if a stock is trading within a qtr or half pt of its fair mkt "buyout" value, I have found it best to get out than to take the risk of the deal failing, or the acquiring stock falling in value. But every situation is different, if there is the likelihood of a competing bid driving the stock higher, this might give you a reason for holding on. Likewise, if the acquiring stock can rally, as happened for me after I stupidly bot Logic Works (LGWX), then your shares may enjoy a symbiotic gain in value a s well. Tom W - -----Original Message----- From: Tim Sowden To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Date: Thursday, June 04, 1998 7:20 PM Subject: [CANSLIM] Need some advice >I need some advice here on a non-canslim stock. > >A few months ago a bought some shares of DSC communications (DIGI) on the >advice of a friend who worked for the company. I paid about 19.00 a share >and bought about 3K worth of the stock. I had kind of forgotten about it >as it had been languishing around the 17-19 range. > >Today it jumped from 19 to 27 on 42 million shares traded. It's going to >be aquired by Alcatel in a stock swap. Each share of DSC will be worth >.815 of a share of Alcatel (currently about 43 a share) which works out >to about 35 a share. The deal will be finalized around October. > >My question is this. Should I hold the stock and wait till it gets >converted or rises to somewhere near 35 a share and then sell, or should I >take the money now and run? I read that Alcatel slumped on the news but >that Analysts liked it. Also, the deal can be called off if Alcatel shares >fall to below 37 a share. Is this likely that the deal might get cancelled >for this reason? > >Any/all advice appreciated. > > Tim > > > > >- > - - ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 4 Jun 1998 23:12:51 EDT From: Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Re: Head and Shoulders for the Nasdaq composite Thanks for the nice post and a wonderful url. look at head and shoulder for intc: http://www.taguru.com/intc_week.html In a message dated 98-06-04 11:27:16 EDT, you write: << Subj: Re: [CANSLIM] Re: Head and Shoulders for the Nasdaq composite Date: 98-06-04 11:27:16 EDT From: mschiffner@ibm.net (Mark Schiffner) Sender: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com Reply-to: canslim@lists.xmission.com To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Mary, To follow up what Patrick said and give a couple of examples: www.bigcharts.com - the blue link is exactly what I typed http://www.bigcharts.com - again, the blue link is exactly what I typed Url's that don't start with www, like the two urls om the "PRARS Top 50" message yesterday (investor.msn.com and cbs.marketwatch.com) don't show up as links, use the http in front to make them show up: http://investor.msn.com and http://cbs.marketwatch.com At 07:55 AM 6/4/98 -0500, you wrote: >Patrick Wahl, > >A very basic question. How do you set up your message so that someone can >click on the blue phrase to access whatever you're referring? I don't >expect a detail explanation, just a place I can get the information. > >I printed the chart for Atlantic Coast Airlines and drew some trendlines >which greatly helped me see your point. > >Thanks. > >Mary Keener > > >- > - ----------------------- Headers -------------------------------- Return-Path: Received: from relay26.mx.aol.com (relay26.mail.aol.com [172.31.109.26]) by air16.mail.aol.com (v43.25) with SMTP; Thu, 04 Jun 1998 11:27:15 -0400 Received: from lists.xmission.com (lists.xmission.com [198.60.22.7]) by relay26.mx.aol.com (8.8.5/8.8.5/AOL-4.0.0) with SMTP id LAA05313; Thu, 4 Jun 1998 11:27:10 -0400 (EDT) Received: from domo by lists.xmission.com with local (Exim 1.82 #1) id 0yhbtR-0007In-00; Thu, 4 Jun 1998 09:25:29 -0600 Received: from (fgm.fgm.com) [199.29.60.2] by lists.xmission.com with esmtp (Exim 1.82 #1) id 0yhbtO-0007IX-00; Thu, 4 Jun 1998 09:25:26 -0600 Received: from firebrick (firebrick.fgm.com [204.6.38.137]) by fgm.fgm.com (8.8.5/8.7.3) with SMTP id LAA21231 for ; Thu, 4 Jun 1998 11:30:19 -0400 (EDT) Message-Id: <199806041530.LAA21231@fgm.fgm.com> X-Sender: usinet.schiffn@pop5.ibm.net X-Mailer: QUALCOMM Windows Eudora Pro Version 4.0.1 Date: Thu, 04 Jun 1998 11:25:48 -0400 To: canslim@lists.xmission.com From: Mark Schiffner Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Re: Head and Shoulders for the Nasdaq composite In-Reply-To: <199864757356334@ix.netcom.com> Mime-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="us-ascii" Sender: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com Precedence: bulk Reply-To: canslim@lists.xmission.com X-No-Archive: yes >> - - ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 4 Jun 1998 23:19:51 EDT From: Subject: [CANSLIM] Re. DG-Online Group, I thought I'd ask DG how they select their stocks. I thought their answer would be of interest to the group. You are able to access over 10,000 stocks through our service. If a stock is in our database, then you can bring up a chart for it. There are 2,880 stocks that appear in our Daily Graphs printed products each week. There are 1,600 stocks in our NYSE edition and 1,280 stocks in our NASDAQ/AMEX edition. To be published in the books we use a proprietary formula that takes into account a stock's Relative Strength, EPS rank, and volume traded. Every stock in our database is ranked and the top 2,880 stocks make it into the book. Regarding the DATABLOCK feature, if a stock is one of the 2,880 stocks to be published each week, you will be able to view the DATABLOCK page. As far as your stock, DYT, I did not see it available on Daily Graphs Online. If you noticed it at a previous time but can not bring it up now, more than likely it has changed symbols. I will look into this for you and will let know if I find something out. Thank you, Daily Graphs Online - - ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 04 Jun 1998 22:47:36 -0400 From: "Frank V. Wolynski" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Members - a drum roll please I didn't go completely back to the beginning of the conversations regarding TA, but Tom your last sentence in the message below is: ">Comments and feedback most welcomed, privately or to the group." So what's it to be? You want comments and discussion or not? Confused! Frank Wolynski (Often wrong, plan accordingly.) At 22:05 6/1/98 -0400, Tom Worley wrote: > WARNING WARNING WARNING WARNING >********************************************************************** >******** > Please do not try this at home (or at work or your broker's office, >for that matter) >********************************************************************** >******** > >Ever since Connie had the courage to join our CANSLIM group, I have >been trying to learn more about Technical Analysis (TA) in hopes of >improving not only my timing of entry and exit points but also to >overcome some of my hesitancy that has cost me some nice profits on >stocks I had "picked". > >All members should understand that I don't even begin trying to apply >TA till after a stock passes my "CANSLIM" screen of at least 80++ on >RS and 75 on EPS with a "nice chart" as well. After that the second >cut comes from a more detailed study of other CS data such as A/D, >Timeliness, u/d ratio, ADV, shares issued and their ownership, GRS, >etc. > >Only after I have considered all that type of data do I switch over to >www.bigcharts.com (BC) and try to plan an entry on the stocks that >have survived. I follow a similar pattern on the stocks I already own, >and may be trying to decide if I should continue owning. > >Last week, I had a mental lightbulb click on, and so got up far too >early Friday morning (I really gotta get a life!) to start playing >around some more at BC. What I had been trying up till then was mostly >based on Connie's favored approach as a day trader, thinking it suited >my preference to always be "in the money" on trade date. It's a >comforting feeling to hold a new stock at however slight a profit. So >I had been using a five day chart, focusing on the OBV and MF, then >backing away in time some more to a one, two and three month chart. >Thus far, it didn't seem to help give me better guidance. > >What I started backtesting last week, and am still continuing tonight, >thus THIS IS A THEORY UNDER CONSTRUCTION, IT'S NOT READY BY MY >STANDARDS TO INHABIT, is the following: > >I start with a 3 line EMA using the 10, 50 and 200 day averages (yeah, >just like DG kinda, except they don't have a 10 day). Don't be fooled >like me initially that the 200 DMA symbol doesn't appear on the symbol >line on the chart, it is still there, and accurate as far as I can >tell so far. I set the time frame to one year, and the data to report >daily. And on the lower chart, I use MACD. This first "peek" is >partially to see if the stock behaves according to the patterns I have >been seeing, that is, if I use just the MACD and buy when it crosses >the zero line upward, and sell when it crosses the zero line downward, >I make money more times than not. I also examine how the stock is >trending and trading with respect to the 10, 50 and 200 DMA lines. I >looked at a number of stocks I have followed, and several I have >owned, and it also appears that it does a good job of "holding my >hand" in times of uncertainty. So long as MACD remains however >slightly positive on a stock I already own, I continue owning. > >Once I am satisfied that the pattern remains predictable as described >above, I go on to study the 3 month and 1 month charts, still using >all the other indicators above. At this point, the preliiminary result >of my looking at a number of charts is that this approach can put me >within one day of the correct entry and exit points on most of my >favorites (small cap and micro cap stocks). PLEASE NOTE THIS >QUALIFIER. I have also run a number of big caps thru this same >approach, including IBM, TXN and CPQ. I plan to run a lot more during >the next week, including a number of non-tech stocks. Just for grins, >I even ran KTEL thru this approach, and interestingly it would have >put me in the stock under 12 and taken me out over 22. At this point, >I am not convinced that this approach works all that well with big cap >stocks, thus this is a SERIOUS WARNING. My focus is small and micro >caps, I make no warranties of any kind even on them and this approach, >and SPECIFICALLY WARN against trying to use it on big cap stocks. Also >please remember, I am using the lists of stocks hitting new highs as >my primary "shopping list" and this too MAY INFLUENCE THE RESULTS I am >getting. > >I trotted the basic premise of my "discovery" past Connie, only to >find out what I had stumbled on was well known to traders. Some >traders only use MACD as their "guide". I did make some "paper" buy >decisions this morning using both this and other approaches I have >used in the past. Results frankly were inconclusive, but I feel I am a >lot closer to finding the right combo of TA that will aid and assist >my CANSLIM investing, and overcome some of my natural indecisiveness >on entry. > >I want to emphasize to all members, I am using TA as my final "screen" >to improve timing, not as a means of selecting stocks. I don't expect >to add or drop a stock on my list because of TA, rather it will help >be a guide to whether it remains as a "watch" or moves up to a "buy" > >Comments and feedback most welcomed, privately or to the group. > >Tom W > > > > > >- > > - - ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 04 Jun 1998 22:47:36 -0400 From: "Frank V. Wolynski" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Members - a drum roll please I didn't go completely back to the beginning of the conversations regarding TA, but Tom your last sentence in the message below is: ">Comments and feedback most welcomed, privately or to the group." So what's it to be? You want comments and discussion or not? Confused! Frank Wolynski (Often wrong, plan accordingly.) At 22:05 6/1/98 -0400, Tom Worley wrote: > WARNING WARNING WARNING WARNING >********************************************************************** >******** > Please do not try this at home (or at work or your broker's office, >for that matter) >********************************************************************** >******** > >Ever since Connie had the courage to join our CANSLIM group, I have >been trying to learn more about Technical Analysis (TA) in hopes of >improving not only my timing of entry and exit points but also to >overcome some of my hesitancy that has cost me some nice profits on >stocks I had "picked". > >All members should understand that I don't even begin trying to apply >TA till after a stock passes my "CANSLIM" screen of at least 80++ on >RS and 75 on EPS with a "nice chart" as well. After that the second >cut comes from a more detailed study of other CS data such as A/D, >Timeliness, u/d ratio, ADV, shares issued and their ownership, GRS, >etc. > >Only after I have considered all that type of data do I switch over to >www.bigcharts.com (BC) and try to plan an entry on the stocks that >have survived. I follow a similar pattern on the stocks I already own, >and may be trying to decide if I should continue owning. > >Last week, I had a mental lightbulb click on, and so got up far too >early Friday morning (I really gotta get a life!) to start playing >around some more at BC. What I had been trying up till then was mostly >based on Connie's favored approach as a day trader, thinking it suited >my preference to always be "in the money" on trade date. It's a >comforting feeling to hold a new stock at however slight a profit. So >I had been using a five day chart, focusing on the OBV and MF, then >backing away in time some more to a one, two and three month chart. >Thus far, it didn't seem to help give me better guidance. > >What I started backtesting last week, and am still continuing tonight, >thus THIS IS A THEORY UNDER CONSTRUCTION, IT'S NOT READY BY MY >STANDARDS TO INHABIT, is the following: > >I start with a 3 line EMA using the 10, 50 and 200 day averages (yeah, >just like DG kinda, except they don't have a 10 day). Don't be fooled >like me initially that the 200 DMA symbol doesn't appear on the symbol >line on the chart, it is still there, and accurate as far as I can >tell so far. I set the time frame to one year, and the data to report >daily. And on the lower chart, I use MACD. This first "peek" is >partially to see if the stock behaves according to the patterns I have >been seeing, that is, if I use just the MACD and buy when it crosses >the zero line upward, and sell when it crosses the zero line downward, >I make money more times than not. I also examine how the stock is >trending and trading with respect to the 10, 50 and 200 DMA lines. I >looked at a number of stocks I have followed, and several I have >owned, and it also appears that it does a good job of "holding my >hand" in times of uncertainty. So long as MACD remains however >slightly positive on a stock I already own, I continue owning. > >Once I am satisfied that the pattern remains predictable as described >above, I go on to study the 3 month and 1 month charts, still using >all the other indicators above. At this point, the preliiminary result >of my looking at a number of charts is that this approach can put me >within one day of the correct entry and exit points on most of my >favorites (small cap and micro cap stocks). PLEASE NOTE THIS >QUALIFIER. I have also run a number of big caps thru this same >approach, including IBM, TXN and CPQ. I plan to run a lot more during >the next week, including a number of non-tech stocks. Just for grins, >I even ran KTEL thru this approach, and interestingly it would have >put me in the stock under 12 and taken me out over 22. At this point, >I am not convinced that this approach works all that well with big cap >stocks, thus this is a SERIOUS WARNING. My focus is small and micro >caps, I make no warranties of any kind even on them and this approach, >and SPECIFICALLY WARN against trying to use it on big cap stocks. Also >please remember, I am using the lists of stocks hitting new highs as >my primary "shopping list" and this too MAY INFLUENCE THE RESULTS I am >getting. > >I trotted the basic premise of my "discovery" past Connie, only to >find out what I had stumbled on was well known to traders. Some >traders only use MACD as their "guide". I did make some "paper" buy >decisions this morning using both this and other approaches I have >used in the past. Results frankly were inconclusive, but I feel I am a >lot closer to finding the right combo of TA that will aid and assist >my CANSLIM investing, and overcome some of my natural indecisiveness >on entry. > >I want to emphasize to all members, I am using TA as my final "screen" >to improve timing, not as a means of selecting stocks. I don't expect >to add or drop a stock on my list because of TA, rather it will help >be a guide to whether it remains as a "watch" or moves up to a "buy" > >Comments and feedback most welcomed, privately or to the group. > >Tom W > > > > > >- > > - - ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 04 Jun 1998 22:46:35 -0400 From: Tom Worley Subject: Re: Jans, your answer: (was [CANSLIM] Re: What happened to this group?--Tom) I debated about posting what I said, expecting this kind of reaction, and having a pretty good idea who it would come from. But, frankly, I am sick and tired of sitting back and shutting up, so I posted anyway. BTW, Jans, this should answer a lot of your questions. Flame me if you choose, db, but this is still supposed to be a CANSLIM group, not a discussion forum for using technical indicators or software packages to choose stocks. And I have seen far too many posts in the past several months that were apparently using only that basis (TA or software) for their stock selection criteria. That is a new, and disturbing, and disappointing, trend to me after two years in this group. And it's not something that just occurred, it's been going on over time. I'm here only, and solely, to discuss CANSLIM, its application and interpretation in today's market, and to help novices to either the market or CANSLIM avoid having their butt's burned. I am an investor, not a trader. While I respect the right of the trader to make money (and take the risks) off the short (even daily) movements in the market and stocks, I remain an investor. I select my picks based solely on CANSLIM, then refine using other "tools in my toolbox" based on my experience. I meant what I said, this group lately doesn't deserve to call itself CANSLIM. And yes, I do promote Daily Graphs, because it is the only site that can provide authentic, uncloned or copied, WON based (including proprietary formulas and all), raw CS data. I don't have a problem if someone wants to visit 5 or 10 or 20 different sources collecting the same or similar or cloned data available at Daily Graphs. That's that person's choice as to how to spend his or her own time and money. But I do regret wasting my time reading posts on whether Zack's, or any other site, provides more specific and accurate data than any other, esp Daily Graphs, when it is well known that DG uses certain formulas and other approaches (such as not including non-recurring events in its earnings data). Likewise, I could care less if Yahoo's quotes are real time or not, there's tons of sites that will give real time, are we going to argue the merits of each one of them? Couldn't we find a site like onlinetraders.com or freequotes/real/time.com or some such to have such discussions?? Over the past two years, I feel I have contributed far more to this group than what I have taken away. That's ok, I did that as an active broker, didn't mind then, haven't minded for the past two years. But I am not interested in continuing to be active in a forum no longer dedicated to CANSLIM when I am getting nothing meaningful from it that aids and assists and challenges my approach and use of CANSLIM. This was supposed to be a CANSLIM group, that's why I've been here. If we can't get back to that, then I see little reason to remain active, if here at all. BTW, I'm not "offended" by you or anyone else discussing TA or any other of the investment related topics brought up here, I'm just tired of reading about it on a site where I expect to hear CANSLIM at least occasionally mentioned, much less used as a technique to pick stocks to buy or sell. If the group members were saying things like "am considering abcd because the RS is xx and the EPS is yy and the other CS elements are whatever and when I look at the TA indicators I find OBV or MF or MACD or Slow (or fast) stochastics (or whatever else they are using for timing), then at least I would feel CANSLIM was still a part of this group. But that's not what's being posted, even if it's somehow underlying what some of the group are doing. There's a place for such discussion, and even within a true CANSLIM group, this kind of discussion can go on, but when all this "noise" has succeeded in drowning out any CANSLIM matters, what's the point of the group?? Personally, I find myself more distracted than helped by all the off-topic stuff that has been going on lately. I'd rather browse around at misc.invest.stocks a while and read all the posts about some stock that's trading at 35 cents but will hit a hundred dollars next week, at least I get a few chuckles out of it. Tom W - -----Original Message----- From: dbphoenix To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Date: Thursday, June 04, 1998 9:37 PM Subject: [CANSLIM] Re: What happened to this group?--Tom ><< . . . can we get back >to CANSLIM and let those interested in arguing the merits of one >software package over another, or whose opinion is right on which TA >indicators to use, or whether BC's definition of MF is valid or >correct take those unrelated or barely related topics to a more >appropriate forum??>> > >My apologies if we've offended you, Tom, but I, for one, make my >living off the markets as well and have done so for nine years. For >you to say that Connie is the only one qualified and/or welcome to >discuss technical indicators and their uses, various types of moving >averages and their uses, and charting and how to interpret charts is >more than slightly elitist. > >You do not hesitate to recommend DG again and again, even though it >costs hundreds of dollars a year, and even though all the information >it contains can be obtained for free elsewhere on the net, if only one >wishes to look it up, except of course for RS, EPS and GS ranks, which >can be obtained by picking up a copy of IBD once a week for $1, or >going to the library and getting it for nothing. > >Yes, BC is just fine for those who don't want to go further. But >there are clearly a number of people who would rather not have to plot >each indicator one at a time, who would like to plot more than three >moving averages at once, who would prefer not to have to print out >chart after chart in order to draw trendlines, and who might like to >study charts without having to go online or spend several hundred >dollars for DG which, I might add, comes no more often than weekly. > >I applauded you for at least sticking your toe into the charting >waters and experimenting with MACD, but it seems the rest of the group >is not free to experiment as well and discuss the results of those >experiments. > >Surely it has not escaped your notice that during those times when the >market is unwelcoming to CSers, we put our time to its best use by >studying, rereading, learning new skills, honing old ones, and sharing >all that with each other. If all of this bores you, then skip the >posts. As far as CS stocks go, HCFP is up 5 points since yesterday >morning. Is that not enough? > >--Db > > > > >_________________________________________________________ >DO YOU YAHOO!? >Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com > > >- > - - ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 04 Jun 1998 23:32:57 -0400 From: "Frank V. Wolynski" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] M and a couple of stocks At 22:50 6/4/98 -0400, Craig Griffin wrote: ...sniped.... >Anybody noticed which industry groups or stocks seem to be firming up as >potential new leaders (assuming the correction doesn't form a new downleg)? >Well back to other stuff and continued lurking... > >Regards, >Craig I track the groups weekly, daily, exclusively. No firming of the sort that is a prelude to a big move. Besides Retail/Major Disc Chains, other groups resisting a down draft are: Retail-Misc/Diversified Retail-Apparel/Shoe (somebody tell um there's a correction going on!) Retail-Consumer Elect and Soap&Clng Preps is advancing through the pack. Retail/Super Mkts look like they are bouncing a bit from a steep decline. Retail Drug Stores also gaining a bit, as of Jan 1 gained only 13.2%. 3 weeks of advances percentage wise. No great breakout gains though. Looks defensive in nature. Nothing on the order we were seeing in January and February with groups popping 3-6% (and more) in a breakout week. Highest gainer last week was +3.2% after a -6.6% fall the week before. Out of 197 groups, only 26 were positive last week. Yuck! Bottom near? Don't know, still accelerating down actually. (This week should slow the decline a bit though, assuming we don't have a fraidy cat Friday!) Could be oversold, could bounce, could fall away more. Pick one! Looks like some oils and techs moved a bit today. I wonder if it will be a sustainable move? The trend of those groups sez no. Frank Wolynski (Often wrong, plan accordingly) - - ------------------------------ End of canslim-digest V2 #268 ***************************** To unsubscribe to canslim-digest, send an email to "majordomo@xmission.com" with "unsubscribe canslim-digest" in the body of the message. For information on digests or retrieving files and old messages send "help" to the same address. Do not use quotes in your message.