From: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com (canslim-digest) To: canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Subject: canslim-digest V2 #275 Reply-To: canslim Sender: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Errors-To: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Precedence: bulk X-No-Archive: yes canslim-digest Monday, June 8 1998 Volume 02 : Number 275 In this issue: [CANSLIM] TA-speak vs. HTMMIS-speak [CANSLIM] Personalities on list [CANSLIM] Re: O'Neil's Seminar--For Novices (contains TA!) [CANSLIM] Keeping a trading journal [CANSLIM] Re: O'Neil's Seminar--For Novices (contains TA!)--Correction Re: [CANSLIM] canslim outside USA [CANSLIM] CS [CANSLIM] PAYX Double Bottom Re: [CANSLIM] Laszlo Birinyi's Prize-Winning MF -- For Connie Re: [CANSLIM] Group Stuff - No Stocks - No Canslim [CANSLIM] Re: Why Newcomers Don't Post Re: [CANSLIM] PAYX Double Bottom--TA!! Re: [CANSLIM] PAYX Double Bottom--TA!! Re: [CANSLIM] PAYX Double Bottom--TA!! [CANSLIM] DLTR breakout? Re: [CANSLIM] Group Stuff - No Stocks - No Canslim Re: [CANSLIM] DLTR breakout? Re: [CANSLIM] Re: Why Newcomers Don't Post Re: [CANSLIM] PAYX Double Bottom--TA!! Re: [CANSLIM] DLTR breakout? Re: [CANSLIM] PAYX Double Bottom--TA!!--Tim [CANSLIM] TMBS breakout Re: [CANSLIM] Group Stuff - No Stocks Re: [CANSLIM] Group Stuff - No Stocks--Surrogates Re: [CANSLIM] TMBS breakout [CANSLIM] Re: Non-Canslim [Johan]: MF, MU, and Dr. Gauss [Connie] Re: [CANSLIM] Group Stuff - No Stocks Re: [CANSLIM] PAYX Double Bottom ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Date: Sun, 07 Jun 1998 22:57:40 -0500 From: Dave Cameron Subject: [CANSLIM] TA-speak vs. HTMMIS-speak Like Tom, I have been on this list more or less since its inception, although I am nowhere near as active as he is. More of the early members on this list will recognize my name than the newer members. Anyway, I mention this because I can compare and contrast the TA-speak level over time. 1. There is certainly a lot more on pure-TA than there was in the past. In general, I think a lot of it is helpful for CANSLIM analysis. O'Neil doesn't go into that level of detail in his book, though, nor has David Ryan in any interview I've seen. So, on balance, it could easily help your investing or trading, but you don't need to feel left out if you're not following it all. 2. There seems to be less HTMMIS-speak than formerly (O'Neil lingo). This is partly the technical level of sophistication of many of the current members. It may also be the reluctance of newcomers to post! I do agree that in our current churning market stage, there are not many CANSLIM candidates out there. I keep trying, but 2 out of 3 get stopped out - so I'm really losing money by continuing. So, I don't post unless I'm pretty confident on a stock. 3. The vast majority of posters on this list have read HTMMIS, maybe multiple times. I see an effort here to continue into related ground. Again, the downside is that it may scare away relative novices. The upside is that it gets more thought provoking. So... in general, I agree with Tom (& Patrick) to some extent in that this list has diverged a bit from pure-CANSLIM.... but I don't think that the TA-speak is incompatible with CANSLIM if followed using similar patterns. Dave Cameron - - ------------------------------ Date: Sun, 07 Jun 1998 23:06:17 -0500 From: Dave Cameron Subject: [CANSLIM] Personalities on list I'd like to reiterate something I posted about 6(?) months ago: I think this is one of the most civil groups for an internet e-mail list which I have ever encountered. We have had a few people over the years (urk... I feel old) who have had attitudes which infuriated people. Someone named Rick comes to mind because he was SO flagrant. Usually those people have left. There have been few instances that I can recall where a couple members have not quite hit it off - and publicly acknowledged it. The "Tom/Jeffry" incidents (which I skipped a lot of) is out of the ordinary. Craig Griffin pointed out that PC World ranked this group one of the top 5 groups of the entire universe of groups. This is an honor not only to the silent list founder (Jeff), but to all the posters who have shared their wisdom, or lack thereof in a civil manner. Let's keep it up. The petty bickering is rare, and also uncharacteristic. Dave Cameron - - ------------------------------ Date: Sun, 07 Jun 1998 19:42:05 -0700 (PDT) From: dbphoenix Subject: [CANSLIM] Re: O'Neil's Seminar--For Novices (contains TA!) I received the following from a member of one of the groups I sponsor. Since it echoes many of the sentiments in Mary's post, and since it comes from someone who is "just past" novice, I thought other novices who are struggling with all this might find it interesting. - --Db <> _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - - ------------------------------ Date: Sun, 07 Jun 1998 23:22:46 -0500 From: Dave Cameron Subject: [CANSLIM] Keeping a trading journal OK, last post for tonight. I go from none in a week, to 3 in one day. But, I've been catching up. Someone (Craig?) recommended to a relative newcomer to CANSLIM the idea of keeping a trading journal. I think this is a great idea. I went back over my 11 years of investing or trading and analyzed what I've done right and wrong. Amazingly, I can get the charts for the last 4 years off http://www.investools.com Have I learned from it? I hope so. I did lousy in 1989. I did OK in 1992. I did great in 1994 and 1995. I did lousy in 1996. This year is good on an absolute stock pick basis, but not good on an overall percentage gain basis. I did re-discover that my biggest problem is not cutting my losses short. Part of the problem for me is the tax law. I despise the fact that you get taxed on all your gains, but can only write off a net-$3000 loss for the year. As such, I've been loath to start off the year with a loss or two because I can't stand loss carryovers. As a result, I nearly CAUSE a loss carryover because I hold until I get a 30% loss - and then have to fight like hell to overcome it. So actually I'm better at cutting losses when I start the year strong, because I've already banked a decent gain, and don't sweat a loss. When I start off poorly, I get gunshy. Ya know, if we didn't have to pay capital gains tax, I wouldn't be starting each year fresh... so I'd think in terms of lifetime up or down - and be OK. Gotta work on this... Dave Cameron - - ------------------------------ Date: Sun, 7 Jun 1998 22:19:50 -0700 (PDT) From: dbphoenix Subject: [CANSLIM] Re: O'Neil's Seminar--For Novices (contains TA!)--Correction My apologies. In my haste, I gave an explanatory note for LTL as "long-term trendline". LTL refers to "lower trendline". - --Db _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 08 Jun 1998 11:11:50 +0200 From: Johan Van Houtven Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] canslim outside USA John W. wrote: >Someone mentioned that most of the data needed for CS is posted at >BigCharts; all the rest I need is in IBD, $1 a week! Trouble is, I live >in England and haven't yet figured out an inexpensive way to get that >kind of info from here. I remember there's a Jan from Belgium on this >list, but don't have his email address handy. Jan, or others, have you >figured out a cheap way to get ahold of this stuff? You could ask IBD if they are willing to mail you each Friday edition per first class airmail. I think it would take about 6 days approx to get here. Not exactly timely, but better than nothing? You could also have it shipped/mailed to you via UPS, DHL, Fedex or so. But that would make it much more expensive. Somewhere between $35 to $80 I would estimate. >Dank u wel, John W Graag gedaan. :-) - --- Johan Van Houtven - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 08 Jun 1998 18:53:51 -0400 From: Jeffry White <"postwhit@sover.net"@sover.net> Subject: [CANSLIM] CS > Date: Sun, 07 Jun 1998 19:50:31 -0400 > From: Tom Worley > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] CS > > Jeffry, I must admit you have finally badgered me into directly > answering your questions publicly. However, I expect this will be my > final response to you publicly or privately, so please do not continue > to fill my inbox, I won't respond. > > Further comments imbedded below. > > Tom W Thank you kindly, Tom. Since you won't engage me any further, I'll just state generally that I don't think WON says to this day anything but that one should watch the general market indices "every day". Every time I see distribution, I don't try to figure out whether they demonstrate the predicate to a bear market, intermediate term downtrend or short correction/consolidation. I simply try to correlate those signals with sentiment levels and leadership stock behavior at the time to determine how best to approach a gradual/possible move off margin or part way or all the way to cash. That's what I understand the CANSLIM approach to dictate, read it for youselves, decide for yourselves. I don't agree at all that HTMMIS is outdated when it comes to "M" direction, and I don't think WON has deparated from the Chapter 7 price and volume signals. Enough, already, but thanks for finally answering, Tom. Jeffry - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 8 Jun 1998 07:10:40 -0700 (PDT) From: Tim Fisher Subject: [CANSLIM] PAYX Double Bottom Seems to me that PAYX formed a double bottom and broke out last Monday. Dunno why I missed it, but the breakout was technically soud and the breakout price should be traded through today. It makes my strict CASLI scan except for it has > 75 M shares out. Looks like SAI wants to do the same. It doesn't make my new strict scan. Tim Fisher, 1995 President, Pacific Fishery Biologists Ore-ROCK-On Rockhounding Web Site PFB Information mailto:tim@OreRockOn.com WWW http://OreRockOn.com - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 08 Jun 1998 14:57:53 +0200 From: Johan Van Houtven Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Laszlo Birinyi's Prize-Winning MF -- For Connie Patrick wrote: >I haven't looked into the money flow indicators provided with the >usual software packages to know how useful they are, but I've read >a bit about Birinyi's indicator, and it is much more sophisticated >than what is available to us lowly investors. As the note says, he >tracks every single trade for the stocks he follows, notes whether a >large block trades on upticks or down ticks, likewise with smaller >transactions, and tries to determine if smart money (institions I >suppose) are buying or selling. So he is looking pretty deeply into >the market, while most money flow indicators are more simplistic, >based only on the single end of day volume numbers and end of day >price change. Connie Mack, Patrick summed up Laszlo Birinyi's nicely. Can you see why I wrote that his indicator is more precise than indicators that are based on open/close/high/low - volume data? That was all I wanted to point out in my previous message. - --- Johan Van Houtven - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 08 Jun 1998 15:05:19 +0200 From: Johan Van Houtven Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Group Stuff - No Stocks - No Canslim Frank, Thank you for the nice groups analysis. What data do you start from? IBD, DG or do you use a program that tracks groups like IRL? JVH At 07:36 PM 07/06/98 -0400, Frank wrote: >Retailers, Specialty, Major Discount Chains (4 weeks in a row of >advancing), Shoes&Apparrel all very strong and looking like they want to go >higher. >Super/Mini Markets (bouncing back up to it's 200day MOV, 50day MOV is >pointing South! >Retail/Drug Stores looking real firm, but the volume is drying up on this >advance. - --- Johan Van Houtven - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 8 Jun 1998 07:33:13 -0700 (PDT) From: dbphoenix Subject: [CANSLIM] Re: Why Newcomers Don't Post <> There are a number of reasons why newcomers (and not-so-newcomers) don't post. Yours is definitely one of them. Once we get beyond the basics (which, as witnessed by the exchange between Tom and Jeffry, we have yet to do entirely) into the more exotic levels of fundamentals and charting, some people get left behind and feel that to ask anyone to slow down is to rain on everyone's parade. Another common reason is the notion that unless one has come up with the stock of the century and developed an analysis that would impress a Harvard MBA, he feels unworthy to participate. One of the advantages of the net is that no one knows who you are. You can ask what you think is the dumbest question in the world with impunity. If someone has the bad taste to make fun of your question, you may feel bad or even ticked off, but it's not the same as public confrontation or humiliation. What matters is not how many degrees you have on the wall (if any) or how many years of experience you may have (if any) or how much money you may have (if any). Because anybody can lie about anything. All that matters is what your words say about your sincerity and your passion and your open-mindedness. We can encourage more participation by taking care not to criticize every stock selection as though it's been made by a long-time contributor with years of experience and buckets of knowledge. We can also encourage newcomers to ask content questions as well as to offer stock ideas (you can't, after all, do one without having learned the other). At the same time, we must try to avoid answering every content question with "read the book". Newcomers, of course, have a responsiblity as well. Reading the book, as a minimum. Reading IBD at least now and then (most libraries subscribe). Doing at least minimal research on the stocks they present for comment and doing the best they can with the CANSLIM numbers and information (asking "So does anybody have any comments on ***?" isn't likely to generate much comment). Granted, answering the same questions over and over again may be boring to some people. They need not participate. But if the group is to perform an educative function as well, at least some of the regulars must be willing to teach (at the moment, of course, there are more than "some"). Newcomers, for their part, must not expect to learn everything they want or need to know from e-mail and message boards. - --Db _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 8 Jun 1998 07:55:28 -0700 (PDT) From: dbphoenix Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] PAYX Double Bottom--TA!! < 75 M shares out.>> I don't know how much you care about TA, Tim, but PAYX is already showing a potentially overbought condition. It may just be settling into a trading range. At the very least I'd like to see it break the immediately preceding high at 38.875 (a longer base would be nice, too, but you can't always get what you want, as Mick would say). FWIW. - --Db _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 08 Jun 1998 11:08:29 -0400 From: Craig Griffin Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] PAYX Double Bottom--TA!! Db, You wrote: >I don't know how much you care about TA, Tim, but PAYX is already >showing a potentially overbought condition. What indicators do you use to recognize a potentially "overbought" condition. Just wondering. TIA. Best regards, Craig PS. I found the post by one of the folks from another group to be quite good. Thank you for taking the time to re-post it here. - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 08 Jun 1998 08:15:42 -0700 From: Tim Fisher Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] PAYX Double Bottom--TA!! I don't, actually, but thanks for asking. Not that I complain about all the posts either. I'm sure TA would say that DELL is dead also, but that didn't stop me from trying to grab it at the bottom. At 07:55 AM 6/8/98 , you wrote: ><Monday. Dunno why I missed it, but the breakout was technically soud >and the breakout price should be traded through today. It makes my >strict CASLI scan except for it has > 75 M shares out.>> > >I don't know how much you care about TA, Tim, but PAYX is already >showing a potentially overbought condition.=A0 It may just be settling >into a trading range.=A0 At the very least I'd like to see it break the >immediately preceding high at 38.875 (a longer base would be nice, >too, but you can't always get what you want, as Mick would say). > >FWIW. > >--Db > Tim Fisher Ore-Rock-On and Pacific Fishery Biologists WWW Sites mailto:Tim@OreRockOn.com WWW: http://OreRockOn.com See naked fish and rocks! - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 08 Jun 1998 08:25:12 -0700 From: Tim Fisher Subject: [CANSLIM] DLTR breakout? Looks like a good move Friday to 55-1/2 off a long base, could this be due to it being mentioned by WON in the seminar? Anyway I've been watching it fdor a long time, still reachable at 57-1/2 today. No info on vol as Yahoo vol is skewed by the spike a couple months ago. Tim Fisher Ore-Rock-On and Pacific Fishery Biologists WWW Sites mailto:Tim@OreRockOn.com WWW: http://OreRockOn.com See naked fish and rocks! - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 08 Jun 1998 11:27:25 -0400 From: "Frank V. Wolynski" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Group Stuff - No Stocks - No Canslim I use the IBD for the actual data. I'm basically cheap and convinced that the simpler the tools, the better. I input the data once a week into a database that I have customized screens for tracking the data with. Big moves aren't set up in a day, the weekly data does a bit of filtering that helps maintain perspective. I can't do volume with this particular IBD approach, but have additional methods for ascertaining it. I have entertained giving IRL a try, but also am a stickler for doing things differently! Besides, again, all the data is out there for free. I can't see paying for something I feel I need to put together myself to see how it works! This fits nicely with my Engineering background. That way I know how it works, when it works, and when and how it doesn't! Thanks for the appreciative response. Best Regards, Frank Wolynski At 03:05 PM 6/8/98 +0200, Johan Van Houtven wrote: >Frank, > >Thank you for the nice groups analysis. > >What data do you start from? IBD, DG or do you use a program that tracks >groups like IRL? > >JVH > >At 07:36 PM 07/06/98 -0400, Frank wrote: >>Retailers, Specialty, Major Discount Chains (4 weeks in a row of >>advancing), Shoes&Apparrel all very strong and looking like they want to go >>higher. >>Super/Mini Markets (bouncing back up to it's 200day MOV, 50day MOV is >>pointing South! >>Retail/Drug Stores looking real firm, but the volume is drying up on this >>advance. > > >--- Johan Van Houtven > > > >- > > - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 8 Jun 1998 11:30:27 EDT From: Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] DLTR breakout? Showing 322K at 11:27 EST. About 1.25x ADV. Ask of 57 1/2 bid 57 1/8. Last trade 57 1/8 up 1 and 5/8. Greg - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 08 Jun 1998 11:39:58 -0400 From: "Frank V. Wolynski" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Re: Why Newcomers Don't Post At 07:33 AM 6/8/98 -0700, dbphoenix wrote: ...sniped.... > >There are a number of reasons why newcomers (and not-so-newcomers) >don't post. Yours is definitely one of them. Once we get beyond the >basics (which, as witnessed by the exchange between Tom and Jeffry, we >have yet to do entirely) into the more exotic levels of fundamentals >and charting, some people get left behind and feel that to ask anyone >to slow down is to rain on everyone's parade. > >Another common reason is the notion that unless one has come up with >the stock of the century and developed an analysis that would impress >a Harvard MBA, he feels unworthy to participate. > ...sniped.... I thought it was because they had the "Trick System" and were making a killing! No questions, I know it all! Seriously if they aren't doing well, and even if they are, they are really missing some of the best discussion on CANSLIM, TA, Fundamental Analysis, Internet Sites, research site evaluation I've ever been privy to! As a newby to the group, I'd like to give a big thanks to all the veterans for sticking around and sharing your experiences, readings, and analytical methodologies. On subject and off! Haven't had to use my kill filter yet! It does feel better to have something positive and constructive to post and gives one the feeling of having contributed something. However, I have found how amazing an unasked question can be. How many times have we asked ourselves, "Why didn't I ask that?" That in it's own way ended up being a contribution by and of itself. Thanks All, Frank Wolynski - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 08 Jun 1998 11:41:30 -0400 From: "Frank V. Wolynski" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] PAYX Double Bottom--TA!! At 11:08 AM 6/8/98 -0400, Craig Griffin wrote: >Db, > >You wrote: >>I don't know how much you care about TA, Tim, but PAYX is already >>showing a potentially overbought condition. > >What indicators do you use to recognize a potentially "overbought" >condition. Just wondering. TIA. > >Best regards, >Craig > >PS. I found the post by one of the folks from another group to be quite >good. Thank you for taking the time to re-post it here. > Is the group private? Frank - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 08 Jun 1998 11:45:51 -0400 From: Craig Griffin Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] DLTR breakout? Tim wrote: >Looks like a good move Friday to 55-1/2 off a long base, could this be due to >it being mentioned by WON in the seminar? Anyway I've been watching it fdor a >long time, still reachable at 57-1/2 today. No info on vol as Yahoo vol is >skewed by the spike a couple months ago. I have rarely seen any mention by WON having much affect on a stock. However a mention in one of his publications often will (like in IBD). DLTR announced a 3/2 split on 6/4. Split announcements often goose stocks these days - because of split chasers. Split chasers buy stock as close to the time news of a split is announced as possible (often subscribing to paging services that send out alerts whenever a split announcement crosses the wire). They then all pile into the stock and drive the price up. Amazingly, some of them never come back (although plenty do). Best regards, Craig - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 8 Jun 1998 08:57:10 -0700 (PDT) From: dbphoenix Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] PAYX Double Bottom--TA!!--Tim <> Actually, I think DELL looks just fine, if you can afford it. Bounced off its 50d (which coincided with a trendline begun in January) and has a risk:reward of almost 1:3. Only problem is the sector. Wouldn't a base be nice? :) - --Db _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 8 Jun 1998 09:04:21 -0700 (PDT) From: rolatzi Subject: [CANSLIM] TMBS breakout TMBS seems to be breaking out today. The current data shows (12:00 noon) price 22 up 1, on 99,500 shares (average daily volume 111,300 shares). Ciao, Rolatzi _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 08 Jun 1998 18:47:42 +0200 From: Johan Van Houtven Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Group Stuff - No Stocks Frank W. wrote: >I use the IBD for the actual data. I'm basically cheap and convinced that >the simpler the tools, the better. I input the data once a week into a >database that I have customized screens for tracking the data with. Frank, Alas I can't get IBD here, so I'll have to find some other way to track groups. Do you use the Top 100 Industry Groups list? If so, I could use the same list from DGO. I've been thinking about using that table. What is holding me back is that I'll have to learn Excel Visual Basic to do what I want. And I'd rather learn the QPv2 scanning language first, as that is more important to me right now. >I can't do volume with this particular IBD approach, but have additional >methods for ascertaining it. I have entertained giving IRL a try, but also >am a stickler for doing things differently! Besides, again, all the data is >out there for free. I can't see paying for something I feel I need to put >together myself to see how it works! This fits nicely with my Engineering >background. That way I know how it works, when it works, and when and how >it doesn't! That's the best thing to do IMHO. My ultimate long term goal is to set up my own groups in QPv2 (when it becomes available). I.e. doing (almost) everything myself. Becoming as independant as possible. There will be a lot of steps between reaching that goal and where I am now. But I expect the journey to be as (or even more) satisfying than reaching the goal. Johan Van Houtven CLICK! N.V. / Wilrijk, Belgium - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 8 Jun 1998 10:08:43 -0700 (PDT) From: dbphoenix Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Group Stuff - No Stocks--Surrogates <> One thing you might consider is the use of "surrogates" (a Woodward idea). These surrogate groups are designed to represent the entire group. Tracking an entire group can often lead you to investigate a group far too late, particularly if it's a large group. By the time the group shows up on the radar screen, the leaders are long gone. In other words, the true leaders are dragging all the laggards behind them like steamer trunks and the true strength of the group is disguised. These surrogates can be just about anything you want them to be. You can specify a minimum ADV, a minimum price (though the two often go together), and leadership quality. By the latter I mean not only those stocks with high RS, but also those which are widely-respected and generally considered to be leaders in their group or sector, though they may not be leaders right at that very moment. The use of these smaller groups (say 12 to 15 stocks in each group, if possible) may enable you to see group moves much sooner, long before they show up in the IBD rankings. - --Db _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 08 Jun 1998 19:12:08 +0200 From: Johan Van Houtven Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] TMBS breakout TMBS is near the upper (resistance) trendline now (22.5 area). FWIW. At 09:04 AM 08-06-98 -0700, you wrote: >TMBS seems to be breaking out today. The current data shows (12:00 >noon) price 22 up 1, on 99,500 shares (average daily volume 111,300 >shares). > >Ciao, >Rolatzi Johan Van Houtven CLICK! N.V. / Wilrijk, Belgium - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 08 Jun 1998 13:13:32 -0400 From: Connie Mack Rea Subject: [CANSLIM] Re: Non-Canslim [Johan]: MF, MU, and Dr. Gauss [Connie] Johan-- I did not for a moment read your post [or Patrick's] with any animus. There is this about gathering data such as is used in MF, irrespective that it is BC's, Birinyi's, or yours and mine. There is always a regression toward the mean. Birinyi can refine the gathering, but no matter whose numbers you use or how you gather them, they regress sooner or later. One way to see what happens to numbers is to imagine a female with an IQ of 125 has a child with a male whose IQ is 140. It will likely have an IQ that regresses toward the mean of the mother and father. The more children produced, the more likely the children's IQ will approach the mean. This is why some very smart people have some modestly intellectual children. Perhaps you will recall the grand Dr. Gauss? He of the bell curve [and the controversial book of the same name]. My father would say that neither God nor Satan rules the universe. These two principles rule life: Dr. Gauss [and his bell curve] and regression to the mean. I knew, and you saw, that Birinyi had a refinement for MF greater than BC's. What I meant about MF was that BC's MF was, over time, probably not much more useful. I.e., the older Birinyi's numbers, no matter how refined, tend to, over time, look like BC's. Too, Birinyi's method of calculating MF was not magisterially profound. You, or I, or Patrick could have done the numbers--with enough chip power. If you have access to Time/Sales on a stock, you can calculate MF to five- decimal thinness. But you may have time for nothing else. E.g., today I am following Time/Sales/Volume on MU because I want to check MF. I'm looking for strength and support; I'm looking for opportunities to enter, since I hope to make purchases of three lots--each, probably, at a higher price. But, depending on Times/Sales/Volume, they could be at the same price. This morning, from about 10:45 to 12:30, price started to deteriorate, but MF is holding steady. I'll try to buy a lot at 24 1/4 to 5/16. Even that old crusty 3/7/10 EMA is encouraging me to buy. I'll probably wait until after 1:00 because things are usually quiet while traders and investors are having lunch. I'll see what Time/Sales look like during lunch and watch carefully, especially from 1:30 to 2:30. Then I'll watch carefully again from 3:30 to 4:00. I'm doing pretty much on a single stock as Birinyi does on the market. My numbers will be pretty stale by tomorrow. And if I look back a month from now, I might find there is a toss up between his and BC's. Though I know how to refine MF and apply what I know to MU, I could probably get by with much less sophistication. Why? Because I can't get fills precisely when I want them. It's a bit like having a Grand Prix racer that will do 200, but I can only drive it around home. It's Dr. Gauss and regression to the mean, Johan. We can't escape. Connie Mack Houtven wrote: > Patrick wrote: > >I haven't looked into the money flow indicators provided with the > >usual software packages to know how useful they are, but I've read > >a bit about Birinyi's indicator, and it is much more sophisticated > >than what is available to us lowly investors. As the note says, he > >tracks every single trade for the stocks he follows, notes whether a > >large block trades on upticks or down ticks, likewise with smaller > >transactions, and tries to determine if smart money (institions I > >suppose) are buying or selling. So he is looking pretty deeply into > >the market, while most money flow indicators are more simplistic, > >based only on the single end of day volume numbers and end of day > >price change. > > Connie Mack, > > Patrick summed up Laszlo Birinyi's nicely. Can you see why I wrote that > his indicator is more precise than indicators that are based on > open/close/high/low - volume data? > > That was all I wanted to point out in my previous message. > > --- Johan Van Houtven > > - - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 08 Jun 1998 15:02:22 -0400 From: "Frank V. Wolynski" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Group Stuff - No Stocks At 06:47 PM 6/8/98 +0200, Johan Van Houtven wrote: >Do you use the Top 100 Industry Groups list? If so, I could use the same >list from DGO. I've been thinking about using that table. What is holding >me back is that I'll have to learn Excel Visual Basic to do what I want. >And I'd rather learn the QPv2 scanning language first, as that is more >important to me right now. Nope, but I suppose the Top 100 would serve as a surrogate. It is minus the other 97 I presume, so you wouldn't have things like numbers Advancing vs Declining or raw aggregate percentage moves, but the motion within the Top 100 would be easy enough to spot. Actually you don't have to go after the detail I do to find the "Energizer Bunny" of a stock. It is usually within the Top 10 or 20 groups. I've heard some great teases about QPv2, I hope it turns out to be what you want! I'll be following all the reports and discussion when it does release. >My ultimate long term goal is to set up my own groups in QPv2 (when it >becomes available). I.e. doing (almost) everything myself. Becoming as >independant as possible. > >There will be a lot of steps between reaching that goal and where I am now. >But I expect the journey to be as (or even more) satisfying than reaching >the goal. Just never, never start your messages with "It is so, Grasshopper". :-) Seriously though, I couldn't agree more. I enjoy the process of enlightment and learning. And though my 2 watt night light of knowledge can't compare with some, I hope to never feel I know all there is to know, or even more of a terror, to feel I know enough! Good luck in your independence, I believe it to be a worthy goal in the investing world! Best Regards, Frank Wolynski - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 8 Jun 1998 12:50:02 -0800 From: "Patrick Wahl" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] PAYX Double Bottom > Date: Mon, 8 Jun 1998 07:10:40 -0700 (PDT) > To: > From: Tim Fisher > Seems to me that PAYX formed a double bottom and broke out last Monday. > Dunno why I missed it, but the breakout was technically soud and the > breakout price should be traded through today. It makes my strict CASLI scan > except for it has > 75 M shares out. Also, an example of my favorite 2B type of trade, which I rarely take. See also NICEY for a 2B trade (this is non-canslim stuff, sorry). - - ------------------------------ End of canslim-digest V2 #275 ***************************** To unsubscribe to canslim-digest, send an email to "majordomo@xmission.com" with "unsubscribe canslim-digest" in the body of the message. For information on digests or retrieving files and old messages send "help" to the same address. Do not use quotes in your message.