From: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com (canslim-digest) To: canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Subject: canslim-digest V2 #281 Reply-To: canslim Sender: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Errors-To: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Precedence: bulk X-No-Archive: yes canslim-digest Sunday, June 14 1998 Volume 02 : Number 281 In this issue: [CANSLIM] DJIA--HS and HR [CANSLIM] DJIA and Trendlines [CANSLIM] Free on-line book on trading. [Connie] [CANSLIM] Test. Please delete Re: [CANSLIM] Group Strength Re: [CANSLIM] Test. Please delete [CANSLIM] OTC Support & Trendlines Re: [CANSLIM] Triple Witching (was AMZN - Johan "L") Re: [CANSLIM] Tom W DO NOT READ Re: [CANSLIM] Group Strength [CANSLIM] Mini interview with William J. O'Neil [CANSLIM] Any opinion? [CANSLIM] Follow through day window Re: [CANSLIM] Intro: Walter Stock Re: [CANSLIM] AMZN - Johan "L" [CANSLIM] Reaching the trendline of the superlative ass. [CANSLIM] NonCanslim - Upgrades .vs. Downgrades Re: [CANSLIM] DJIA and Trendlines Re: [CANSLIM] Group Strength Re: [CANSLIM] ABAG: TA & CS [Connie] Re: [CANSLIM] Archives address Re: [CANSLIM] Follow through day window [CANSLIM] Follow through day window - John Lloyd Re: [CANSLIM] ABAG: TA & CS [Connie] Re: [CANSLIM] Group Strength Re: [CANSLIM] Mini interview with William J. O'Neil Re: [CANSLIM] Group Strength Re: [CANSLIM] Group Strength ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Date: Fri, 12 Jun 1998 14:37:02 -0700 (PDT) From: dbphoenix Subject: [CANSLIM] DJIA--HS and HR Here's the chart again in case it evaporated on you: ftp://ftp.xmission.com/pub/users/m/mcjathan/canslim/DJIA-WK.gif First HS (horizontal support) comes at the most immediately preceding low of 8719. The only significance of this is that, if it's broken, there will be a likelihood of a descending trend rather than a sideways consolidation (as long as the previous low and high remain intact, you're going sideways). Next come the Fibonacci or Gann retracement levels (purple). These are slightly different from each other, but only by fractions of a percentage point. Basically, they represent 38%, 50% and 62% retracements of the high on this particular leg. This is important or not depending on how many people pay attention to it. What matters more about the 50% level is that it generally coincides with the 40w EMA, a price peak set in August '97, and the LTL (lower trendline), the latter assuming that we get there fairly soon. Any one of these alone is not as strong as all three (or four) together. And I say "generally" because the market is based on psychology and sociology, not mathematics or physics, so don't expect all this stuff to line up like the magazines on an obsessive-compulsive's coffee table. Next comes the 8200 area. This was tested twice as resistance (note the dotted portion of the line), but never tested as support. According to the rule of Flip-Flop, though, it should provide support if ever needed. It is also the neckline of what is arguably a reverse head-and-shoulders. We may be grasping at straws, but if this is in fact an H&S, support would be considerably stronger. A little over 100 points below this is the 62% Gann/Fib level. There are also troughs to be tested in the 7400-7500 area, but I wouldn't buy a used-car from them. There's stronger support at 7000-7100, though I'm not looking at that as a real possibilily, much less a probability. But it's there. And there's very long-term support down there. I think it's very unlikely that we're going to get anywhere near 7000 (that whole area between 7600 and 8100 represents huge support--though it seems awfully wide to be a base, that's what it is), but what I "think" (guess) has nothing to do with the investment decisions I make. I don't guess if I can avoid it. I just look at the charts. They reflect not only Jeffry's perspective, but Tom's as well. To focus on Japan, for example, can cloud one's thinking UNLESS events in Japan show up in the chart(s)(more than a few people chose to focus on the Japanese bond market and missed out on the January to April move entirely). To ignore outside influences and focus on the charts exclusively can leave one unprepared for unpleasant consequences (if you keep trying to jump back in and find yourself running tiny loss after tiny loss, perhaps you need to take a walk). The truth is somewhere inbetween. Or it's "out there". Speaking of which . . . - --Db _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - - ------------------------------ Date: Sat, 13 Jun 1998 20:10:22 -0400 From: "Frank V. Wolynski" Subject: [CANSLIM] DJIA and Trendlines Never saw this one hit the listserv, so I'm cutting and pasting it in. Frank At 12:42 PM 6/12/98 -0700, dbphoenix wrote: > >I find it very difficult to talk about support, resistance, and >trendlines without something to look at. Therefore, anyone who's >interested may go to our archive site and look at a graph I put >together to show what I've been following > > >ftp://ftp.xmission.com/pub/users/m/mcjathan/canslim/DJIA-WK.gif > ...sniped... so let's talk support. I see ample at Dow 8166. At the juncture you labeled 8210 the highs for the days touched that 4-5 times, closed above it once back on 10/07/97. I tend to take the middle of the fuzz and lean a bit toward the actual closes! Not intending to split hairs, it just isn't perfectly clear. I would think enough traders would consider the region well traveled enough to be considered support. The last advance started from a low close of 7580 on 1/9/98 (last low) and advanced to a close of 9211 on 5/13/98. 50% of a retrace would place us at 8396 and what appears to be a collision with your trend line from the last two lows. This being the steaper of the two lines. The 200day MOV is just beneath that at 8284.97. Therefore, with last falls highs, your trendline, and the 200day MOV all converging into a region within a few percent of each other (more or less) I think it would provide enough of a support region to consider it a tradeable juncture. There appears to be a pickup in bearish sentiment also. We'll get a better picture this weekend and especially early next week, when the Japanese have had a chance to kick the tires on this official 'recession' they are in. Best Regards, Frank Wolynski ( Lining up some Ducks....., but keeping my powder dry! ) - - ------------------------------ Date: Sat, 13 Jun 1998 13:44:17 -0400 From: Connie Mack Rea Subject: [CANSLIM] Free on-line book on trading. [Connie] Members-- Several have asked me about day trading, swing trading, etc. There is a nice almost-cult book about trading that you can read a chapter from in the evening. It is primarily about futures, but the narrative speaks about theory and practice for all trading and some about investing. The site is: http://futuresmag.com/library/phantom/phantom.html Separate from the book are some short essays on day trading. From these essays you will understand why I have discouraged anyone from day trading. It can give you indelible and expensive lessons. The site is: http://futuresmag.com/library/daytrade97/daytrdcontents.html There are other interesting pages. Just enter http://futuresmag.com Connie Mack - - ------------------------------ Date: Sat, 13 Jun 1998 14:03:43 -0400 (EDT) From: "Surindra J. Singh" Subject: [CANSLIM] Test. Please delete No messages for a while, just testing if server is down! Surindra - - ------------------------------ Date: Sat, 13 Jun 1998 21:00:07 -0400 From: "Frank V. Wolynski" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Group Strength At 11:41 6/13/98 -0700, dbphoenix wrote: > >Going through the group charts, I couldn't find much to get excited >about, so I plotted relative strength lines. The most promising >looked to be the following: > >Financial - Misc. Svcs. >Drugs - Diversified >Drugs - Ethical >Retail - Department Stores > >Comments from anyone who follows groups welcome. > >--Db >_________________________________________________________ >DO YOU YAHOO!? >Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com >- Not much at all going on for a canslimer! There are some interesting things approaching for a trader however. But that's another subject for another time. 19 groups moved higher this past week, none dramatically, none breaking out. 178 groups moved lower, some dramatically. The aggregate percentage change for the entire 197 groups is -498%. Biggest downside # number I have in my database! (Only tracking this particular number since October.) Top 10 Performers were: Computer Software Internet = 6.7% Computer Software Educ/Entr = 5.5% Food-Meat Products = 3.4% Transportation-Airline = 3.1% Medical-Drug/Diversified = 2.4% Retail-Consumer Elect = 2.0% Comml Svcs-Schools = 1.6% Medical-Whsle Drg/Sund = 1.1% Utility-Electric Power = 1.1% Soap & Clng Preparatns = 0.5% (Just think, nine more groups and then everything else goes negative!) Worst 10 Performances put in by: Oil & Gas-Drilling = -9.4% Auto Mfrs-Domestic = -9.0% Oil&Gas-Machinery/Equip = -8.8% Elec-Semiconductor Equip = -8.6% Steel-Producers = -8.0% Machinery-Mtl Hdlg/Autmn = -7.5% Elec-Semiconductor Mfg = -7.1% Oil&Gas-Field Services = -6.8% Metal Ores-Gold/Silver = -6.7% Oil&Gas-US Explo&Prod = -6.7% (Wow, only 168 groups to go to get to the positive movers!) I hesitate to mention any strength at all I have observed, the elephants will surely be stomping through those very soon. Also, the stocks will have the tide against them anyway. This assuming the current trend stays intact. I feel the responsible thing to do is say nothing about them. Find them yourselves, besides they aren't really going anywhere now are they? They certainly aren't breaking out. In January, the above tables were flipped. That is actually not quite correct. In early February, the 9th to be precise, 100% of the groups were moving positive. A 5-7 % positive breakout for a group was not uncommon at all, I even recorded some larger breakouts. This was across the groups, that is all the groups were advancing. We haven't recorded as negative of a move yet to be completely contra the recorded positive move in January. There is nothing to make me believe we will, short of the threat of Nuclear War, Japaneze Economic collapse, ressumption of food riots in Malaysa, currency revaluations in SE Asia.... wait, wait we have all those things... nevermind! It is just that, there is still room in the indicators to get more negative. I can also make a case for a bounce somewhere near where DB has so kindly been pointing out in his postings regarding the Dow and Trendlines. With that reference made, I'll just state that enough groups are beneath their 50day, I would anticipate a continuation of a move to their 200day MOV. This therefore reinforcing the idea DB has put forth regarding the 200 day, the indicated rising trendline and a fibonaci 50% retracement of the DJI. A meaningful crossroads of sorts, no doubt! (Isn't there a brand of sphagetti noodles that are really, really thin called Fibonaci? Or maybe that's the curly ones?) Frank Wolynski ( Sorry for all the editorializing this posting, will forgo such when the market gets more positive.) - - ------------------------------ Date: Sat, 13 Jun 1998 21:27:33 -0400 From: "Frank V. Wolynski" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Test. Please delete It must have been. Late last night I posted one that never appeared. Reposted this evening. Frank At 14:03 6/13/98 -0400, Surindra J. Singh wrote: >No messages for a while, just testing if server is down! > >Surindra > > > >- > > - - ------------------------------ Date: Sat, 13 Jun 1998 21:22:55 -0400 From: "Frank V. Wolynski" Subject: [CANSLIM] OTC Support & Trendlines DB, try the same process on the OTC. I find it sitting exactly on a very critical juncture. If it fails and breaks down beyond the 1742 it closed at on 6/3, it will probably find next support at approx 1630. I can't do the Fibonaci's, but that looks approx. like a 62% retracement at that point. Frank Wolynski - - ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 12 Jun 1998 20:25:13 -0400 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Triple Witching (was AMZN - Johan "L") One other "non 'M' " point I forgot to make is that there is often concerted effort to force a class of options with large, expiring, open interest to close on Friday out of the money, or only fractionally in the money, by buying or selling the underlying security and push the closing price of that stock thru the exercise point. When this happens, the stock frequently reverses on the following Monday. This typically involves only big cap, high volume, very liquid stocks, which can also thusly affect major indexes. As a result, the Monday following options expiration, esp triple witching, can also be very volatile on the indexes. Don't know if that may help explain the reversal in the mkt today, so don't know how far I trust the reversal today as a sign of "bottoming", whether it was just "safe haven" buying, "value shopping", or some other explanation. Tom W - -----Original Message----- From: Ken Davidson To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Date: Friday, June 12, 1998 1:35 PM Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Triple Witching (was AMZN - Johan "L") >Excellent explanation!! > > >Almost missed this question because of the misleading subj line, but >I'll jump in since don't see any other answer to the question. > >Triple witching occurs late in each quarter. It is the date in which >trading ends on all expiring equity, index and Treasury/interest rate >options. These options actually expire on the Saturday following the >third Friday of the month, while actual trading ceases on the third >Friday of the month. In March, June, Sept, and Dec, all three option >groups expire together, leading to greater volatility in the mkt as - - ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 12 Jun 1998 17:47:50 EDT From: Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Tom W DO NOT READ Now we have satellites, who needs wires ;-) In a message dated 98-06-12 10:47:25 EDT, you write: << Subj: Re: [CANSLIM] Tom W DO NOT READ Date: 98-06-12 10:47:25 EDT From: dbphoenix@yahoo.com (dbphoenix) Sender: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com Reply-to: canslim@lists.xmission.com To: canslim@lists.xmission.com <> Since the wire from NY to Oregon is longer than the wire from NY to Phoenix, it takes longer for you to get your quotes. --Db >> - - ------------------------------ Date: Sat, 13 Jun 98 23:06:12 PDT From: "Walter Stock" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Group Strength Some time ago, Connie mentioned John Bollinger's site as being second only to Bigcharts in value to the trader. The site is: www.equitytrader.com Bollinger is most known for his Bollinger Bands, but has spent as much time or more on Group Strength analysis. He publishes a newsletter on the topic, and co-wrote a special module in the AIQ software specifically on taking advantage of group moves. Much of the value of his work is available for free on the Equitytrader site. If you click on "Groups" in the menu you can access his Sector, Industry Group, and individual stock listings. He makes a real point of keeping his groups "pure", and if a stock does not perform similarly to others in a group, he exiles the stock to a bin labelled Non-Correlated. For example, KEA (Keane Corp) which you might expect to see filed in some Software or Computer-Service industry group or other, is dumped into Non-Correlated because its behaviour does not correlate well enough with any of his industry groups. Incidentally, I have never seen his Sector and Industry Group ratings as bearish as they are right now. Hope this helps everyone, Walter Stock (yes, that really is my last name) Oakville, ONT - Canada E-mail me at wstock@globalserve.net - ---------- > > Going through the group charts, I couldn't find much to get excited > about, so I plotted relative strength lines. The most promising > looked to be the following: > > Financial - Misc. Svcs. > > Drugs - Diversified > > Drugs - Ethical > > Retail - Department Stores > > Comments from anyone who follows groups welcome. > > --Db > > > > _________________________________________________________ > DO YOU YAHOO!? > Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com > > > - > > - - ------------------------------ Date: Sat, 13 Jun 1998 17:48:46 +0200 From: Johan Van Houtven Subject: [CANSLIM] Mini interview with William J. O'Neil June 12, 1998 http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/current/soapbox.htx?source=htx/http2_mw Johan Van Houtven CLICK! N.V. / Wilrijk, Belgium - - ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 12 Jun 1998 14:26:30 -0700 From: "Chao, Chih Yu" Subject: [CANSLIM] Any opinion? Hi, Good day, With some gut feeling that the retail stocks are going to stand out for the remaining year, I just bought JOSB. Any opinion? (so I can get out before it's too late. ;-) Anyone follow HTCO and DY? These two looks good. Anyone watch UTR and GALTF? They are beaten dogs, and are definitely not CANSLIM stocks, but I really like their UPWARD chance. Happy trading, ChihYu - - ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 12 Jun 1998 17:38:09 -0400 From: Jeffry White <"postwhit@sover.net"@sover.net> Subject: [CANSLIM] Follow through day window Nice reversal-type low in all indices, closing relatively unchanged to higher depending upon the index, on an increase in volume over yesterday. 3-10 day window opens with 6/17 action. Check where sentiment stands next Thursday morning. Currently at 41.7% Bulls, 31.7 Bears. Would prefer (kinda like a "want" or a "wish", I suppose) to see the inverse before we have a 1% on volume day within a window off this low. Frank, if you have a minute this weekend, would be exceedingly grateful for a glimpse of the moving groups, if any? Db, still wondering whether there is an address or number or site where I can check out Woodward's Surrogate efforts. Thanks in advance. Jeff - - ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 12 Jun 1998 20:00:46 -0400 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Intro: Walter Stock Welcome to the group, Walter. You can fill my inbox with "non M" economics stuff anytime you wish. And feel free to challenge or correct anything on the topic I should dare to post, and manage to screw up. Tom W - -----Original Message----- From: Walter Stock To: Canslim Group Date: Friday, June 12, 1998 12:37 PM Subject: [CANSLIM] Intro: Walter Stock Hello from Canada, Canslim people. I would like to introduce myself to your group, and being at 100% cash right now, I no longer have an excuse to delay delurking. (Have been snooping since Oct 97.) Age: 42 Education: B.A. in "non-M noise" ;^) (a.k.a. Economics) - - ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 12 Jun 1998 17:45:10 EDT From: Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] AMZN - Johan "L" Reflects your profession in your reply... :( In a message dated 98-06-12 09:52:44 EDT, you write: << Subj: RE: [CANSLIM] AMZN - Johan "L" Date: 98-06-12 09:52:44 EDT From: netimken@erols.com (Nelson E. Timken, Esq.) Sender: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com Reply-to: canslim@lists.xmission.com To: canslim@lists.xmission.com I guess this question was too stupid to be dignified with a response? Sorry for my stupidity. Nelson E. Timken http://www.onelist.com/subscribe.cgi/investing-list -----Original Message----- From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com] On Behalf Of Nelson E. Timken, Esq. Sent: Thursday, June 11, 1998 7:17 PM To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] AMZN - Johan "L" You mention a "bottoming" and I am wondering what your analysis forecasts as the bottoming point for the market. I expect we will see another down day tomorrow and continuing into triple witching. Nelson E. Timken http://www.onelist.com/subscribe.cgi/investing-list -----Original Message----- From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com] On Behalf Of dbphoenix Sent: Thursday, June 11, 1998 7:07 PM To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] AMZN - Johan "L" <> Just like Christmas morning, eh Jeffry? ;) I, for one, would like to just get to 1700 and 8300 and get on with it. The water-torture type of correction is a real bummer. --Db _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - - - ----------------------- Headers -------------------------------- Return-Path: Received: from rly-zb04.mx.aol.com (rly-zb04.mail.aol.com [172.31.41.4]) by air-zb02.mail.aol.com (v43.25) with SMTP; Fri, 12 Jun 1998 09:52:44 -0400 Received: from lists.xmission.com (lists.xmission.com [198.60.22.7]) by rly-zb04.mx.aol.com (8.8.5/8.8.5/AOL-4.0.0) with SMTP id JAA15652; Fri, 12 Jun 1998 09:52:42 -0400 (EDT) Received: from domo by lists.xmission.com with local (Exim 1.82 #1) id 0ykUEs-0001JL-00; Fri, 12 Jun 1998 07:51:30 -0600 Received: from (toad.csd.sdl.usu.edu) [129.123.187.32] by lists.xmission.com with smtp (Exim 1.82 #1) id 0ykUEp-0001J4-00; Fri, 12 Jun 1998 07:51:27 -0600 Received: (qmail 18913 invoked from network); 12 Jun 1998 13:51:26 -0000 Received: from scrooge.csd.sdl.usu.edu (129.123.180.19) by toad.csd.sdl.usu.edu with SMTP; 12 Jun 1998 13:51:26 -0000 Received: (qmail 4734 invoked by uid 1638); 12 Jun 1998 07:50:54 -0600 Received: from (smtp1.erols.com) [207.172.3.234] by lists.xmission.com with esmtp (Exim 1.82 #1) id 0ykSjt-0006Bk-00; Fri, 12 Jun 1998 06:15:25 -0600 Received: from nelson (207-172-80-230.s39.as6.nyd.erols.com [207.172.80.230]) by smtp1.erols.com (8.8.8/8.8.5) with ESMTP id IAA13457 for ; Fri, 12 Jun 1998 08:15:23 -0400 (EDT) From: "Nelson E. Timken, Esq." To: Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] AMZN - Johan "L" Date: Fri, 12 Jun 1998 08:16:08 -0400 Message-ID: <000001bd95fb$e1abbb20$e650accf@nelson> MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit X-Priority: 3 (Normal) X-MSMail-Priority: Normal X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook 8.5, Build 4.71.2173.0 Importance: Normal In-Reply-To: <001401bd958f$169d2020$2372accf@nelson> X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft MimeOLE V4.72.3110.3 Sender: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com Precedence: bulk Reply-To: canslim@lists.xmission.com X-No-Archive: yes >> - - ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 12 Jun 1998 22:27:54 -0400 From: Connie Mack Rea Subject: [CANSLIM] Reaching the trendline of the superlative ass. DB, you have today broken through my 200-day trendline-of-the-superlative-and-impeccable-ass. Your semantic quibbling and sissy complaints, your self-election to champion what you presume is the right way and to denigrate what you presume is the wrong way, won't do. No one in the group ought to think patiently and believe suddenly what you believe--like a religious convert. To me, you are little different from several Ph.D. faculty whom I have taught with. Most are modestly smart but act as if only yesterday the rest of the faculty just became aware of what the bathroom scales have always known--and of other facts on their drivers license, especially their age. My advice to them was to remember that Alexander the Great had a slave whose sole responsibility was to whisper "Remember, you are mortal." In your instance, and of much smaller dimension, the whisper is "Remember, this is not your site." It is not the place of a revenant to arrogate the site to himself and consequently imply that the members are reading from a chapbook of ignorance and error. In your instance, the revenant is equally besought and beset--not an admirable ratio. Ordinarily, a tumescent mind, like a tumescent penis, is more capricious than one detumescent. Ultimately, your tolling of nibbled complaints is of no moment to me, a bit like the cathedral bells tolling whether or not the lone movie house is showing a picture censored by the Church. What is of moment to me is the loss of ease in the give-and-take that I found when I came to the site in August. Comment ought to emanate a mood, to convey the member's competence and inquisitiveness, and to assign what is said to a high respect. And short that respect, I will conclude that your brain is nearer a blancmange than a semi-solid. Connie Mack - - ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 12 Jun 1998 20:49:26 -0400 From: "Frank V. Wolynski" Subject: [CANSLIM] NonCanslim - Upgrades .vs. Downgrades 17 Analyst upgrades versus 45 downgrades today. ( Reference Yahoo Finance ) Do ya think they are anticipating a possible correction and in a desire to show their asuteness are forcasting possible stock declines????? Frank Wolynski ( Please don't answer this, I'm hoping you have better things to do than I. Just entertaining myself being a bit sarcastic.) - - ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 12 Jun 1998 22:25:12 -0400 From: "Frank V. Wolynski" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] DJIA and Trendlines At 12:42 PM 6/12/98 -0700, dbphoenix wrote: > >I find it very difficult to talk about support, resistance, and >trendlines without something to look at. Therefore, anyone who's >interested may go to our archive site and look at a graph I put >together to show what I've been following > > >ftp://ftp.xmission.com/pub/users/m/mcjathan/canslim/DJIA-WK.gif > ...sniped... so let's talk support. I see ample at Dow 8166. At the juncture you labeled 8210 the highs for the days touched that 4-5 times, closed above it once back on 10/07/97. I tend to take the middle of the fuzz and lean a bit toward the actual closes! Not intending to split hairs, it just isn't perfectly clear. I would think enough traders would consider the region well traveled enough to be considered support. The last advance started from a low close of 7580 on 1/9/98 (last low) and advanced to a close of 9211 on 5/13/98. 50% of a retrace would place us at 8396 and what appears to be a collision with your trend line from the last two lows. This being the steaper of the two lines. The 200day MOV is just beneath that at 8284.97. Therefore, with last falls highs, your trendline, and the 200day MOV all converging into a region within a few percent of each other (more or less) I think it would provide enough of a support region to consider it a tradeable juncture. There appears to be a pickup in bearish sentiment also. We'll get a better picture this weekend and especially early next week, when the Japanese have had a chance to kick the tires on this official 'recession' they are in. Best Regards, Frank Wolynski ( Lining up some Ducks....., but keeping my powder dry! ) - - ------------------------------ Date: Sun, 14 Jun 1998 06:39:05 -0400 From: Robert Bomba <73223.2767@compuserve.com> Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Group Strength >> Top 10 Performers were: Computer Software Internet = 6.7% Computer Software Educ/Entr = 5.5% Food-Meat Products = 3.4% Transportation-Airline = 3.1% Medical-Drug/Diversified = 2.4% Retail-Consumer Elect = 2.0% Comml Svcs-Schools = 1.6% Medical-Whsle Drg/Sund = 1.1% Utility-Electric Power = 1.1% Soap & Clng Preparatns = 0.5% << Hi, Is Friday the day the rankings change? Did you notice Monday's (6/15/98) rankings are different then Friday's with no change in rankings? For instance Computer-Local Networks was ranked 16 on Friday, on Monday it's ranked 19 with no change from last week? Two groups that showed a big jump in strength in Fri's paper from a week ago was Shoes & Rel Apparel (up 63 spots) & Computer-Local Networks (up 58 spots). These were from the top 1/3 only. I found no buys in the shoe area (yet) but looking hard at FORE & CSCO. FORE with a stop just below 20 & CSCO just below 73 in the networking group. That could very well be a Head & Shoulders Top on CSCO though? Anyway some of this is CANSLIM but most not. Take Care! Bob P.S. A good way to protect yourself from being wrong in CSCO is to place a BUY STOP @ one tick above today's high or yesterdays high which ever is higher. With CSCO you would place a an order to buy with a stop @ 80.375. You'll get in a little higher but with less risk IMHO. - - ------------------------------ Date: Sat, 13 Jun 1998 00:00:54 EDT From: Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] ABAG: TA & CS [Connie] Hi Connie, I was the one who mentioned ABAG (my name is Chris). Any tech info you have on this one would be appreciated.Made initial purchase (which I thought was as perfect an entry as you could hope for) at 17 7/16.Stock has run into longer term resistance at 19 and closed the week at its low but still just above breakout level. I generally do not like finishing on the low for the week after a breakout but the selling was on much lower voulme than the massive buying earlier in the week, not to mention the rotten market conditions this week. Any thoughts on this one. Thanks in advance. Chris. - - ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 12 Jun 1998 20:29:35 -0400 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Archives address Or you can just go directly to it with www.xmission.com/~mcjathan/cgi/lwgate.cgi/CANSLIM/archives/ and not have to search for it. Hope this helps. Tom W - -----Original Message----- From: dbphoenix To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Date: Friday, June 12, 1998 1:44 PM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Archives address > >The site is as follows: > >http://www.xmission.com/pub/ > >Don't forget you may need to hit "previous directory" to reach the CS >file. > >--Db > > > > > >_________________________________________________________ >DO YOU YAHOO!? >Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com > > >- > - - ------------------------------ Date: Sun, 14 Jun 1998 08:39:34 -0400 From: "John Lloyd" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Follow through day window Check out http://www.wallstreetcity.com/talk/talk_main.asp When the page comes up click on roundtables and go to Ian Woodward's High Growth Stock Corner. Ian and a lot of his friends are there talking about the surrogate stocks and the market in general and the Iandex98. I'm sure that you will find this site benificial. John Lloyd - -----Original Message----- From: Jeffry White <"postwhit@sover.net"@sover.net> To: canslim@mail.xmission.com Date: Sunday, June 14, 1998 4:19 AM Subject: [CANSLIM] Follow through day window >Nice reversal-type low in all indices, closing relatively unchanged to >higher depending upon the index, on an increase in volume over >yesterday. 3-10 day window opens with 6/17 action. > >Check where sentiment stands next Thursday morning. Currently at 41.7% >Bulls, 31.7 Bears. Would prefer (kinda like a "want" or a "wish", I >suppose) to see the inverse before we have a 1% on volume day within a >window off this low. > >Frank, if you have a minute this weekend, would be exceedingly grateful >for a glimpse of the moving groups, if any? > >Db, still wondering whether there is an address or number or site where >I can check out Woodward's Surrogate efforts. Thanks in advance. > >Jeff > >- > > - - ------------------------------ Date: Sun, 14 Jun 1998 09:12:22 -0400 From: Jeffry White <"postwhit@sover.net"@sover.net> Subject: [CANSLIM] Follow through day window - John Lloyd Thank you kindly, John. Jeff - - ------------------------------ Date: Sun, 14 Jun 1998 09:53:41 -0400 From: Connie Mack Rea Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] ABAG: TA & CS [Connie] Morning Chris-- Let's see if we can't raise your spirits. You still have those five weeks of MF positive divergence from late April through June. That's a plus. The same with OBV. That's a plus. The SloSto has already turned sell and the EMA is at a first level sell, also. Another down day of a 1/2 point and the MACD will turn sell. Two minuses. The Volume+ looks normal: minus volume but diminished. A plus. If you choose to stay in, there are these things to consider for the short term. [1] There is a trendline of support across those tops at about 17. The breakout above this line is presumably what prompted you to buy. Nothing wrong with your decision. The breakout looked sound. In part, what happened to cut your right decision short was that the next resistance was so close at about 19 and the market turned sour. Still, you played by the chart. [2] What you may expect, by the chart, is that price will hold on support. If price holds here and you get a bit of consolidation for perhaps a week, you'll have some other support coming into influence. More about this in a minute. [3] If support is breached, your next trendline of support will be a line across the bottoms in April and May at about 15 1/2. It would be serious if this line were breached. The breaking of two supports should always take your breath away. With this line drawn in, you've parallel lines of support. If price breaks the first support and holds on the second, you may be entering a trading range between these lines. If this does happen, you'll find that others who held on to the second support may be itchy to get out when price rebounds to the upper line, which becomes now a resistance line. If you've had enough, you will need to sell into this strength on the assumption that you've entered a trading range and that the next move will be down to the lower support. More times than not, price will not break through on the first test of the upper resistance because there are too many people who may have used the same criteria to get in at your price. Some shaking out will occur at the upper resistance line. [4] Using a longer term criterion that favors you is a trendline drawn from the low in March across the last low in May. Extend that line through the parallel lines. This line, crossing through the parallel lines, becomes a secondary support for price. It is, however, the bottom parallel line that is the primary support. A week or so from now, price will meet the conjunction of the long term trendline and the top parallel line. If, at this conduction, you cannot determine which way the stock will move [check all your indicators, especially MACD, SloSto, and EMAs], you should consider that you've made a mistake and look elsewhere. Your position is not at all hopeless. Support is close by, both short and long term. If you're in for a couple hundred shares or so, consider clearing out half and sell into the next strength. Don't disparage yourself when you decide to get out of a stock or when you get out and the stock goes up. When you get out and a stock goes up, you didn't lose money, you saved capital. And the name of the game is capital. If you're not dealing with a discount broker, consider doing so. If you must consider the cost of commission as even the slightest reason to stay in a stock, you are using the weakest of reasons. One reason for dealing with a discount broker is that you can sell half your position and suffer for just a few dollars. Commission cost should never enter into the reason for entering or exiting. This is a site that has a list of 50 or so discount brokers: http://smallcapinvestor.com/discount.asp Keep your spirits up. Connie Mack []long term trendline CA011667@aol.com wrote: > Hi Connie, > > I was the one who mentioned ABAG (my name is Chris). Any tech info you have on > this one would be appreciated.Made initial purchase (which I thought was as > perfect an entry as you could hope for) at 17 7/16.Stock has run into longer > term resistance at 19 and closed the week at its low but still just above > breakout level. I generally do not like finishing on the low for the week > after a breakout but the selling was on much lower voulme than the massive > buying earlier in the week, not to mention the rotten market conditions this > week. Any thoughts on this one. Thanks in advance. Chris. > > - - - ------------------------------ Date: Sun, 14 Jun 1998 10:13:01 -0400 From: "Frank V. Wolynski" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Group Strength At 06:39 6/14/98 -0400, Robert Bomba wrote: >Hi, > >Is Friday the day the rankings change? Did you notice Monday's (6/15/98) >rankings are different then Friday's with no change in rankings? For >instance Computer-Local Networks was ranked 16 on Friday, on Monday it's >ranked 19 with no change from last week? Two groups that showed a big jump >in strength in Fri's paper from a week ago was Shoes & Rel Apparel (up 63 >spots) & >Computer-Local Networks (up 58 spots). These were from the top 1/3 only. I >found no buys in the shoe area (yet) but looking hard at FORE & CSCO. FORE >with a stop just below 20 & CSCO just below 73 in the networking group. >That could very well be a Head & Shoulders Top on CSCO though? Anyway some >of this is CANSLIM but most not. > > > Take Care! > > Bob Current group rankings are changed every day. I'm guessing that you mean which day is the last week ranking referenced to. This would be Mondays paper. What you are pointing out above with Comp-Local Networks is exactly that. The group obviously has changed ranking from Friday to Monday, #16 on Friday to #19 in the Monday paper. The Monday paper also shows its ranking last week of #19. This is exactly what I was referring to in an earlier message. The group rankings are reset with Mondays paper, (Fridays trade data). The group was not ranked #19 last week! It only achieved that ranking this very day. IBD resets and the group will now hold on to that #19 slot as last weeks ranking for the next 5 papers. That is until next Mondays paper is published. Fridays is a great paper to see at least the prior 4 days of movement from its previous ranking. Since it is reset the next day, you lose that ability after that and start all over with the current week. Best Regards, Frank Wolynski - - ------------------------------ Date: Sun, 14 Jun 1998 10:30:43 -0400 From: "Frank V. Wolynski" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Mini interview with William J. O'Neil Thanks Johan, Interesting reading. Frank Wolynski At 17:48 6/13/98 +0200, Johan Van Houtven wrote: >June 12, 1998 > >http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/current/soapbox.htx?source=htx/http2_mw > > > >Johan Van Houtven >CLICK! N.V. / Wilrijk, Belgium > > >- > > - - ------------------------------ Date: Sun, 14 Jun 1998 07:45:45 -0700 (PDT) From: Tim Fisher Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Group Strength Hmmm, seems to me that KEA is a Y2K co. almost exclusively.... At 11:06 PM 6/13/98 PDT, you wrote: > >For example, KEA (Keane Corp) >which you might expect to see filed in some Software >or Computer-Service industry group or other, is dumped >into Non-Correlated because its behaviour does not >correlate well enough with any of his industry groups. > Tim Fisher, 1995 President, Pacific Fishery Biologists Ore-ROCK-On Rockhounding Web Site PFB Information mailto:tim@OreRockOn.com WWW http://OreRockOn.com - - ------------------------------ Date: Sun, 14 Jun 1998 10:47:37 -0400 From: "Frank V. Wolynski" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Group Strength At 06:39 6/14/98 -0400, Robert Bomba wrote: >Hi, ...sniped.... >Two groups that showed a big jump >in strength in Fri's paper from a week ago was Shoes & Rel Apparel (up 63 >spots) & >Computer-Local Networks (up 58 spots). These were from the top 1/3 only. I >found no buys in the shoe area (yet) but looking hard at FORE & CSCO. FORE >with a stop just below 20 & CSCO just below 73 in the networking group. >That could very well be a Head & Shoulders Top on CSCO though? Anyway some >of this is CANSLIM but most not. > > Take Care! > Bob > This an interesting phenomenon that I have a bit more information about that you may find interesting. First, Computer-Local Networks. Ranking change of +58 spots to #19. At first blush it seems like quite a move, however the index dropped -3.3% in doing that! Seems a contradiction. The IBD ranking tables are built by using a 6 month comparison. What was the group doing 6 months ago, and what is it doing now? Do a bit of math and you're able to judge price performance. Sort relative to 196 other groups and you have a ranking order of things. Understand, that 6 months ago referenced from Mondays paper is quite different that 6 months ago referenced from last Mondays paper! Thus looking back 6 months ago at a surrogate index of Comp-LocNetwrks, finds the group 10% down from a point they were at just the prior week, (6 months plus 1 week.) What this in effect does is give the Comp-LocNetwrks a new reference, one that is 10% lower than the one used last week. Therefore, if the price does nothing at all this week, the performance is boosted by 10% due to the reference point action 6 months ago! With the 10% of additional group fuel, a new sort of group rankings turn up a big move of the group, although the group action was actually very negative! Best Regards, Frank Wolynski - - ------------------------------ End of canslim-digest V2 #281 ***************************** To unsubscribe to canslim-digest, send an email to "majordomo@xmission.com" with "unsubscribe canslim-digest" in the body of the message. For information on digests or retrieving files and old messages send "help" to the same address. Do not use quotes in your message.