From: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com (canslim-digest) To: canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Subject: canslim-digest V2 #2839 Reply-To: canslim Sender: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Errors-To: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Precedence: bulk Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable X-No-Archive: yes canslim-digest Wednesday, August 21 2002 Volume 02 : Number 2839 In this issue: Re: [CANSLIM] Rose Colored Goggles? Re: [CANSLIM] Too many CANSLIMers? Re: [CANSLIM] stop losses and profits Re: [CANSLIM] Too Soon To Buy? Seeking Wise Advice Re: [CANSLIM] Intro - Bob Mansk Re: [CANSLIM] Intro - Bob Mansk ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Date: Wed, 21 Aug 2002 01:47:58 -0400 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Rose Colored Goggles? jans, I did a fast run thru of the charts, and want to first comment on one of your comments, that being that only AMSG has good earnings and sales. MCO - EPS 96, last 4 qtrs earnings up 24% to 53%, forecast this year up 35%, next 12% HRB - EPS 95, last 4 qtrs from "N/A" to plus 50% (N/A qtrs were smaller losses), forecast up 17% and 11% BOYD - EPS 44 (ugly but explainable due losses past two years), last 4 qtrs from "N/A" to plus 500%, no forecast PIXR - EPS 93, last 4 qtrs from minus 65% to plus 88%, last two qtrs both nice gains, forecast up 93% and 15% AMSG - EPS 99, last 4 qtrs plus 27% to plus 53%, forecast 46% and 22% I didn't write down all the sales growth data, but think almost every qtr for each of them was showing growth, mostly double digit, and in most cases over 20%, growth year over year. In a good "M", and a strong economy, these earnings and sales growth would still put them well over average. In the poor "M" we have at present, and a weak (but recovering IMO) economy, they put them on the top of the heap. Their groups were all mostly top rated groups, B+ or better, with the sole exception of HRB rated at D. Moody's makes some sense to me if you believe (as I do) that major corps are starting to get more confident about spending money on productivity related upgrades of equipment and software. With interest rates low, more of the big corps will be looking to do more debt issue, and Moody's will benefit from that. Sales there are up 24% to 37%, and may be a stealth indicator to what big corporate America may be quietly doing, issuing new debt at lower interest rates while redeeming older higher interest bonds (or quietly buying them back). Much like homeowners refinancing, this means lower debt service in the future, more cash flow, lower expenses, etc. And more capital for equipment purchase, acquisitions, etc. HRB has been trying for some years, without notable success, to diversify enough to smooth out their seasonal sales and earnings. Don't know that they can ever succeed without some significant acquisitions (I still think EPIQ would be an excellent acquisition for them, so long as it is at a huge premium!!!) the rest I don't have much thoughts on, other than all are big caps, which seems to me to not be the best place to invest right now unless you are a big fund / money manager and looking for a place to dump millions of dollars at a time. chart wise, I didn't find any of these to be particularly distasteful, nor did I find any of them screaming at me to buy (assuming I could tolerate a big cap stock). I do agree that the RS line by itself was not saying much long term, but I also didn't see them waving red flags at a quick glance. The RS line for the DOW and the NYSE Comp are both trending upward slowly and steadily, just what I would like to see in today's climate. RS line for Naz and R2000 much more shaky, but also what I would expect right now given the past 10 weeks performance. As I said in one of my recent posts, we have seen higher lows on all indexes, but I need to also see higher highs on the indexes before I will believe we are in a rally, much less have finally seen the true bottom. Well, we now have higher highs on the DOW, NYSE Comp, Naz 100, Naz Comp, NYSE Financials, S&P Mid Cap 400, S&P 500, and S&P 600. Russell 2000 is one significant omission from this list for me, but I personally have seen good results (margin acct up 14% in two days, for example, and VR Fund kicking all the indexes again) so may just be a matter of days for it to join the crowd. So, yes, I think we are in rally mode, but too early to say whether just a bull rally in a bear market, or that we have finally bottomed, or if so that we now have started a brand spanking new baby bull market (what's a baby bull, calf??). I have long held that the overall economics (which I believe ultimately drive corp earnings) are much better (and recovering) than what you would believe from either listening to airhead commentators, or looking at the stock market. I strongly suspect a lot of the underperformance of the stock markets compared to the economy is due to foreign investment dollars being withdrawn, which also weakens the dollar. At the moment, I believe that this cash flow is back to neutral, if not already positive, in part because where else are investors going to park their money where they feel safer? If confidence in US markets returns (and the corp governance issues are a big part of this, e.g. CEO/CFO certifications news, along with well known analysts touting stocks while simultaneously trashing them internal to their brokerage house) then the rush of capital back into US markets, both from foreign investors as well as cash still sidelined here in USA, could be huge. I deliberately did not focus much on the current RS lines of these stocks because RS is weighed more heavily on the latest time period, and lately these stocks, like most others, have done poorly. On the other hand, because RS is weighted heavily on the recent term, a sharp trend up short term can rapidly change the RS #, and line, into a very respectable presentation. Given that their respective EPS rating is already at or near the top of the scale (and that takes far longer both to build to those levels as well as deteriorate from there, but recent qtrs suggest the latter is not going to happen), and group RS is quite high as well for all but one, then I would have to applaud IBD for once presenting a topic in terms of what is happening right now, rather than six months or two years ago. Sorry jans, but guess I am back into my more normal bullish, and contrarian, stance. Maybe I want a rally even more than IBD (actually I already have one, just want it to keep going). - ----- Original Message ----- From: To: Sent: Tuesday, August 20, 2002 8:44 PM Subject: [CANSLIM] Rose Colored Goggles? Canslimmers: This is a passage from Wednesday's. Big Picture: "Despite the skittishness, emerging leaders performed well. Moody's (MCO) broke out of an eight-week base. The bond-rating stock popped up 1.08 to 50.78. Volume expanded 53% above normal. Moody's most recent consolidation isn't as tight as its January-to-April base, which led to a 24% gain. But the company's fundamentals still look good. Moody's grew profit 44% in the latest quarter as sales rose 32%. H&R Block (HRB) followed through on Friday's breakout. The tax stock rallied 1.80 to 53.15 in above-average volume. The company's fundamentals are a little lumpy, given the once-a-year nature of the tax business. But it still scores a 95 Earnings Per Share Rating. That means its growth is better than 95% of stocks on the market. Boyd Gaming (BOYD) resumed its breakout late in the session. The stock added 0.62 to 16.68. Volume swelled 138% above its 50-day average. Pixar (PIXR) marched higher for the fifth day in a row. The animated feature producer has gained almost 15% since charging past its pivot point at 44.30 on Aug. 14. AmSurg (AMSG), which hit its first new high in 2 1/2 months on Monday, pulled back 1.03 to 32.02. Volume for the outpatient clinic stayed heavy." THESE ARE CONSIDERED THE LEADERS BY IBD???? Only AMSG has decent earnings and sales. Its formation is nice, but its RS-line (not the rating) is lower than its previous price high. All the others have lousy earnings and some have lousy charts in addition to lousy earnings. Moreover, I get the impression that IBD feels that we are in a rally. However, when you look at the major indexes (Dow, NASDAQ, Russel 2000, S&P 500 and 600) all of them have RS lines going lower as they roll higher. So if this is a rally, I don't think it will last too long. This is just my opinion, but it would be nice if IBD and/WON addressed these divergences. My impression is that IBD/WON wants a rally so much that their wishes are father to the reality. Am I wrong? Katherine and Tom-or anyone who cares to comment-how do you see the big picture? jans - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 21 Aug 2002 02:08:17 -0400 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Too many CANSLIMers? Outside of the small / micro cap playground I like to haunt, where 10,000 shares in a day can represent a huge volume spike, the retail investors represented on this group can make little difference in their buying power / volume alone. But where they can make a difference is when you add in all the other CANSLIM oriented investors that have not yet (fortunately) found this group, or all the ones that are pure momentum players, or think they understand CANSLIM, and thereby end up with approx the same pivot point. Then, on top of that, think of the real elephants, the money / fund managers sitting on the sidelines with bags of somebody else's money they want to spend, and don't know where. If they are active practitioners of CANSLIM, they likely they are also looking at the same pivot point, and ready to cast millions of $$$ at it when they see a possible b/o. If the little guys all start hitting the same pivot point, creating both volume and price movement, then some of the elephants start stampeding. That attracts attention from other little guys just chasing the herd, as well as other fund / money managers, some of whom are friends with the ones that already jumped into the water. They don't call it herd instinct (or herd mentality, which implies wrongly that there are any brains behind it) for nothing. Momentum is only one part of CANSLIM. When you get both momentum and quality CANSLIM criteria, you get the best of all worlds, of interest to the majority of potential stock buyers (as well as some shorters). - ----- Original Message ----- From: "Boyd" To: Sent: Tuesday, August 20, 2002 1:06 PM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Too many CANSLIMers? Maybe in a bear M where there are few good set-ups, we small CAN SLIMers out here in WON-land can make a difference on low-vol stocks. WON says it's instutions that move a stock when it is really climbing. But I have never completely understood how the big money plays CAN SLIM (if they do). Do they ever buy at the pivot like us? Surely they don't move in and out of a stock like CAN SLIM can have us doing at times. I thought they took weeks to take a position? If so, wouldn't they be the folks causing the right side of the cup to form? Not being an market insider, I am "clueless in Texas." Norm - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 21 Aug 2002 02:25:00 -0400 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] stop losses and profits Michael, one of the hardest things for me to learn, and I still consider myself a beginner at it, is to learn how to hold onto the biggest long term gainers. Frankly, if I had bought DOCC in my IRA instead of my margin account just over six months ago, I likely would have already sold part of it. Instead, I hold a major winner because I also want to avoid long term capital gains taxes if this stock permits me to. Likewise, every stock is different depending on its price, past performance, overall volatility, price spread between the bid and ask, average volume, shape of the base, how cleanly defined is the pivot, etc. Because I only buy small and micro cap stocks, often low priced, often with low volume, I have learned to give them more room to roam. More risk, more chance of a major percentage loss. But necessary if I am to continue owning one or more big winners periodically. But like many, I have a day job and cannot sit in front of a monitor all day, so I try to sneak in ahead of a potential b/o rather than waiting for the actual b/o and maybe missing it. I believe that most should adhere to a 8% stop loss until they gain experience, and even thereafter for some. Whether you raise this stop loss at a 15% or 20% gain is less important than that you have a plan, a discipline, in place. - ----- Original Message ----- From: To: Sent: Tuesday, August 20, 2002 3:19 PM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] stop losses and profits Katherine, I actually followed this thinking and watched a nice profit (15%) in NCEN turn into an 8% loss as the bottom dropped out. I think it has made me make a modification to stop at break even if I end up at 15% gain, at least until M has be proven to be turned. I came up with this based on assuming a stock that breaks out would "normally" be expected to rise about 25-30% before re-basing, so if never gets up by that amount from my buy point, then I should exit sooner rather than later... Mike Niemotka , PE Sr. Principal Engineer Baxter Healthcare Corporation Route 120 & Wilson Road Round Lake, IL 60073 Tel (847) 270-4075 Fax (847) 270-4525 michael_niemotka@baxter.com "Katherine Malm" To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Sent by: cc: owner-canslim@lists.xm Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] stop losses and profits ission.com 08/16/2002 05:01 PM Please respond to canslim Oops...I realize now I misread your question. I would *hold on* up to 8% below buy price, but if the stock comes back and *kisses* the pivot, then I would buy more. I'm not inclined to buy more when the stock drops *below* the pivot, unless it shows strong volume pushing it back up to the pivot and beyond. Now I think I've confused even myself! This is the way I think of it "Kiss the pivot, second chance to buy more---Hit the pivot, yellow flag" Katherine - ----- Original Message ----- From: "Katherine Malm" To: Sent: Friday, August 16, 2002 4:55 PM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] stop losses and profits | Hi Mike, | | 8% standard stop loss, though I don't see this happen too often when the | market is healthy. | | Katherine | | ----- Original Message ----- | From: | To: | Sent: Friday, August 16, 2002 2:54 PM | Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] stop losses and profits | | | | | | Katherine, | | | | I knew I could count on you for a good answer. As a follow up to your | | answer #4, if you made 10-15% in one week, how low would you allow the | | stock to drop on low volume and still buy more, as opposed to selling out? | | | | Put another way, if it ran up 15% in a week, would you allow it to go | below | | your original buy point, even if it was at low volume? | | | | | | Have a great weekend everyone! | | | | Mike | | | | Mike Niemotka , PE | | Sr. Principal Engineer | | Baxter Healthcare Corporation | | Route 120 & Wilson Road | | Round Lake, IL 60073 | | Tel (847) 270-4075 | | Fax (847) 270-4525 | | michael_niemotka@baxter.com | | | | | | | | "Katherine Malm" | | To: | canslim@lists.xmission.com | | Sent by: cc: | | owner-canslim@lists.xm Subject: Re: | [CANSLIM] stop losses and profits | | ission.com | | | | | | 08/16/2002 02:31 PM | | Please respond to | | canslim | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Hi Nancy, | | | | Let me try and clear up some of your confusion: | | | | 1. A stock's "rise" does not occur *in* a base, but *between* bases. While | | the price will fluctuate up and down within the base itself, the amount of | | fluctuation will vary depending on the severity of correction and the time | | it takes to form the area of consolidation. The stock is essentially | | *absorbing* the gains of its previous advance. | | | | 2. When you purchase a stock, you will always purchase it as it *breaks | | out* | | of that base. This preferred buy point is referred to as the "pivot" and | is | | again defined by the pattern that the base forms. | | | | 4. When a stock begins a healthy rising pattern after it breaks out, it | can | | rise *any* amount before it consolidates (bases) again. There is no hard | | and | | fast rule as to how much it will rise before basing, though WON suggests | | that if it is >=25%, the next base would then be considered a "new stage | | base." This is only important in that his studies show that most stocks | | can't muster the oomph to keep going after they've reached the 3rd or 4th | | stage base. | | | | 3. Mike's question about a sell rule is not dependent on *which* base in | | the | | base count we are evaluating. A base is a base. If the stock breaks out as | | it should and begins to rise, how are you going to handle selling it | | when/if | | the time comes? | | | | 4. WON suggests that, if you buy correctly at the pivot (or no more than | 5% | | above it), that you should never have to suffer a loss of more than 8%. | | This | | is because, in his studies, he has found that a healthy stock never falls | | more than 8% below the pivot before continuing a healthy advance. | | | | 5. Mike's question, specifically, was "if a stock breaks out of a base, | | then | | rises 10-15%, then falls back, where do you place your sell stop? 8% below | | your buy price or something other than that?" In other words, should you | be | | willing to accept *any* loss if a stock has managed to rise 10-15% in 6 | | wks, | | then falls back to where you bought it. My vote is, if it takes 6 wks to | | rise and then erases the entire advance, I don't want to take an 8% loss. | | If | | it rose 10-15% in *one* week and then fell back on low volume, I'd look at | | that as "normal" and might consider it a second chance to *buy* more. | | | | Katherine | | | | | | ----- Original Message ----- | | From: "NANCY POLCARO" | | To: | | Sent: Friday, August 16, 2002 1:47 PM | | Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] stop losses and profits | | | | | | | Katherine-let me see if I am following correctly please. My question is | | | that previously I understood that after the third rise in a base | | formation | | a | | | stock may correct by dropping below the previous base and then starting | | up | | | again if all is well with the stock. Then the bases start to be | | recounted | | | again. In this case, if you just bought in during the third rise in the | | | base, which from my understanding would probably go up between 15%(Mikes | | | figure) and 25%( the amount of each rise in a base of a healthy stock) | | you | | | would sell(not you personally but someone with my amount of experience | or | | | the like) before the 8% drop, to protect your gain. Then follow the | | stock | | | and watch for a buy in again at some point depending on how the stock | | acts | | | from this point on? Is that close to correct ??? Thanks for your | | thoughts | | | Nancy | | | | | | | | | >From: "Katherine Malm" | | | >Reply-To: canslim@lists.xmission.com | | | >To: | | | >Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] stop losses and profits | | | >Date: Fri, 16 Aug 2002 13:09:30 -0500 | | | > | | | >HI Mike, | | | > | | | >I think you'll get a hundred different answers on this one, so I'll | just | | | >answer from my personal point of view. | | | > | | | >If a stock breaks out of a well-formed base on volume, then takes 6 | | weeks | | | >to | | | >rise 10 or 15 percent, then I sure wouldn't want to risk 8% loss at | that | | | >point, even if it were falling back "normally" as you suggest. To me | | that | | | >means that no sell signals were triggered on the way up, and that the | | | >general pattern included up days on higher volume than down days, | | support | | | >at | | | >the 50 day moving average, etc. My personal preference, however, would | | be | | | >to | | | >move my stop to breakeven or slightly below (3-4% max, depending on | | market | | | >conditions) if the stock had risen like this. | | | > | | | >Katherine | | | > | | | > | | | >----- Original Message ----- | | | >From: | | | >To: | | | >Sent: Friday, August 16, 2002 9:17 AM | | | >Subject: [CANSLIM] stop losses and profits | | | > | | | > | | | >| Group, | | | >| | | | >| In reading WON, he makes a statement that you should never let a | stock | | in | | | >| which you are up 10-15% turn into a loss, but I was wondering you | have | | | >| interpreted that along with the sell at no more than an 8% loss rule. | | | >| | | | >| Say you buy a stock, at a breakout, and it rises 10-15% over a few | (6+ | | | >| weeks), and then is started to correct....Do you sell at you break | | even | | | >| point, or do you allow it to go to your 8% loss point before selling? | | | >This | | | >| is assuming that the stock is NOT giving any strong sell signals, but | | | >| appears to be pulling back "normally". | | | >| | | | >| Thanks | | | >| | | | >| Mike Niemotka , PE | | | >| Sr. Principal Engineer | | | >| Baxter Healthcare Corporation | | | >| Route 120 & Wilson Road | | | >| Round Lake, IL 60073 | | | >| Tel (847) 270-4075 | | | >| Fax (847) 270-4525 | | | >| michael_niemotka@baxter.com | | | >| | | | >| | | | >| | | | >| - | | | >| -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" | | | >| -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or | | | >| -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. | | | > | | | > | | | >- | | | >-To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" | | | >-In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or | | | >-"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | _________________________________________________________________ | | | Send and receive Hotmail on your mobile device: http://mobile.msn.com | | | | | | | | | - | | | -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" | | | -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or | | | -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. | | | | | | - | | -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" | | -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or | | -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | - | | -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" | | -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or | | -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. | | | - | -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" | -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or | -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 21 Aug 2002 02:34:17 -0400 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Too Soon To Buy? Seeking Wise Advice Jeffrey, distance from the 7/24 latest lows, whether measured in time or price, makes little difference. What does matter is whether this is just a short term bull rally in a continuing bear market, or marks the bottom having been reached in July, and now embarked on a serious bull rally that could last for years. For that, ask me again in six or twelve months, only time will answer the question. the question also depends on what you are trying to do. Personally, I am a long term investor, willing to hold a stock for years if that makes sense to me. For someone looking for a quick hit of 10 or 15%, it may already be too late, as we already have index gains of 20% or thereabouts from the July low. The chance we could gain another 10 or 15% from here, short term, are so slight as to be disregarded. Just in a few weeks most markets have gone from seriously oversold to measurably overbought. For a long term investor, looking for some reversal to support putting money at risk, the gains to date from 7/24 may not be any more significant than that from 9/11/02. - ----- Original Message ----- From: "Gasta, Jeffrey" To: Sent: Tuesday, August 20, 2002 4:22 PM Subject: [CANSLIM] Too Soon To Buy? Seeking Wise Advice Hello, For the first time since I started studying CANSLIM (two months), I see IBD giving optimistic comments. Are we far enough away from the July 24th market bottom to buy stocks? If not, what conditions still need to be met? Many thanks to all of you - have learned a lot and didn't have to loose money in the process! jg Jeffrey Gasta Telecommunications Engineering Marriott International Voice: 301.380.6204 Fax: 301.380.8649 jeff.gasta@marriott.com - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 21 Aug 2002 07:41:46 -0400 From: "Robert Mansk" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Intro - Bob Mansk This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------=_NextPart_000_1917_01C248E6.33C34B70 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Tom, I haven't recalculated the total return numbers for my total = Vanguard in a while. Just eye-balling the various accounts I would = estimate the total current loss from the Q1 - 2000 peak to be 20 - 30 %. = That is with a mix that is about 50% Totl Stock Mkt, 25% Bonds 15% = International Stock, 5% REIT and 5% Energy. As to my feelings about it, the appeal is that it is a low maint = portfolio that has done reasonibly well through most times. I had read = John Vogle's book on using index funds and buy and hold. I bought into = it. There was also a time back in the early 90's when I managed a = portion of my portfolio using the Fidelity Monitor newsleter. For a = period of a couple of years I used both my current approach and followed = the newsletter. The Vanguard buy and hold strategy out performed the = newsletter. Eventually, I dropped the newsletter and went strickly with = Vanguard buy and hold. =20 On a go forward, I would like to depend less on Vanguard index fund = buy and hold. =20 Bob=20 ----- Original Message -----=20 From: Tom Worley=20 To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20 Sent: Wednesday, August 21, 2002 12:13 AM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Intro - Bob Mansk thanks for the intro, Bob, and welcome to the group. I look forward to = your future participation, now that we know you are out there listening = in. Curious how your performance with Vanguard buy&hold fund has been, = and how you feel about it? ----- Original Message -----=20 From: Robert Mansk=20 To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20 Sent: Tuesday, August 20, 2002 9:48 PM Subject: [CANSLIM] Intro - Bob Mansk Hello All, I have been a lurker on this list for a few months now and thought = I would make a proper introduction of myself. I have been investing in = stocks for about 20 years, although up until now, mostly passively. I = subscribed to the Vanguard buy and hold index fund approach for the bulk = of my holdings. Through the recent market down turns I began to = question that approach, at least for all of my holdings. I got serious = about learning more about investing in individual stocks. =20 I have recently read WON's HTMMIS and I am starting to apply the = concepts. I have found the discussions here also an excellent guide and = reference and look forward to participating in them. For my day job, I am an independent computer consultant, primarily = as an Oracle iDBA. Bob - ------=_NextPart_000_1917_01C248E6.33C34B70 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
Tom,
 
    I haven't = recalculated the total=20 return numbers for my total Vanguard in a while.  Just=20 eye-balling the various accounts I would estimate the total current = loss=20 from the Q1 - 2000 peak to be 20 - 30 %.  That is with a mix that = is=20 about 50% Totl Stock Mkt, 25% Bonds 15% International = Stock, 5%=20 REIT and 5% Energy.
 
    As to my feelings = about it, the=20 appeal is that it is a low maint portfolio that has done reasonibly = well=20 through most times. I had read John Vogle's book on using = index funds=20 and buy and hold.  I bought into it.  There was also = a time back=20 in the early 90's when I managed a portion of my portfolio using the = Fidelity=20 Monitor newsleter.  For a period of a couple of years I used = both my=20 current approach and followed the newsletter.  The Vanguard buy and = hold=20 strategy out performed the newsletter.  Eventually, I dropped the=20 newsletter and went strickly with Vanguard buy and hold.
   
    On a go forward, I = would like to=20 depend less on Vanguard index fund buy and = hold.   
 
Bob 
----- Original Message -----
From:=20 Tom=20 Worley
Sent: Wednesday, August 21, = 2002 12:13=20 AM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Intro - = Bob=20 Mansk

thanks for the intro, Bob, and welcome to the = group. I=20 look forward to your future participation, now that we know you are = out there=20 listening in. Curious how your performance with Vanguard buy&hold = fund has=20 been, and how you feel about it?
 
----- Original Message -----=20
From: Robert=20 Mansk
Sent: Tuesday, August 20, 2002 9:48 PM
Subject: [CANSLIM] Intro - Bob Mansk

Hello All,
 
    I have been a = lurker on this=20 list for a few months now and thought I would make a proper = introduction of=20 myself.  I have been investing in stocks for about 20 years, = although up=20 until now, mostly passively.   I subscribed to the = Vanguard buy and hold index fund approach for the bulk of my=20 holdings.  Through the recent market down turns I began to = question that=20 approach, at least for all of my holdings.  I got serious = about=20 learning more about investing in individual stocks.  =
 
    I have recently = read WON's=20 HTMMIS and I am starting to apply the concepts.  I have found the = discussions here also an excellent guide and reference and look = forward to=20 participating in them.
 
    For my day job, I = am an=20 independent computer consultant, primarily as an Oracle = iDBA.
 
Bob
- ------=_NextPart_000_1917_01C248E6.33C34B70-- - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 21 Aug 2002 09:06:16 -0400 From: "J. Lobatto" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Intro - Bob Mansk This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------=_NextPart_000_0034_01C248F2.01BF6080 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Just a quick defense of Bogle.... I attended a talk of his a couple of = years ago and he was clear in warning that he felt the market was very = overvalued and that future returns would be far smaller than what we had = seen in the late 90s. ----- Original Message -----=20 From: Robert Mansk=20 To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20 Sent: Wednesday, August 21, 2002 7:41 AM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Intro - Bob Mansk Tom, I haven't recalculated the total return numbers for my total = Vanguard in a while. Just eye-balling the various accounts I would = estimate the total current loss from the Q1 - 2000 peak to be 20 - 30 %. = That is with a mix that is about 50% Totl Stock Mkt, 25% Bonds 15% = International Stock, 5% REIT and 5% Energy. As to my feelings about it, the appeal is that it is a low maint = portfolio that has done reasonibly well through most times. I had read = John Vogle's book on using index funds and buy and hold. I bought into = it. There was also a time back in the early 90's when I managed a = portion of my portfolio using the Fidelity Monitor newsleter. For a = period of a couple of years I used both my current approach and followed = the newsletter. The Vanguard buy and hold strategy out performed the = newsletter. Eventually, I dropped the newsletter and went strickly with = Vanguard buy and hold. =20 On a go forward, I would like to depend less on Vanguard index = fund buy and hold. =20 Bob=20 ----- Original Message -----=20 From: Tom Worley=20 To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20 Sent: Wednesday, August 21, 2002 12:13 AM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Intro - Bob Mansk thanks for the intro, Bob, and welcome to the group. I look forward = to your future participation, now that we know you are out there = listening in. Curious how your performance with Vanguard buy&hold fund = has been, and how you feel about it? ----- Original Message -----=20 From: Robert Mansk=20 To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20 Sent: Tuesday, August 20, 2002 9:48 PM Subject: [CANSLIM] Intro - Bob Mansk Hello All, I have been a lurker on this list for a few months now and = thought I would make a proper introduction of myself. I have been = investing in stocks for about 20 years, although up until now, mostly = passively. I subscribed to the Vanguard buy and hold index fund = approach for the bulk of my holdings. Through the recent market down = turns I began to question that approach, at least for all of my = holdings. I got serious about learning more about investing in = individual stocks. =20 I have recently read WON's HTMMIS and I am starting to apply the = concepts. I have found the discussions here also an excellent guide and = reference and look forward to participating in them. For my day job, I am an independent computer consultant, = primarily as an Oracle iDBA. Bob - ------=_NextPart_000_0034_01C248F2.01BF6080 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
Just a quick defense of = Bogle.... I attended=20 a talk of his a couple of years ago and he was clear in warning that he = felt the=20 market was very overvalued and that future returns would be far smaller = than=20 what we had seen in the late 90s.
----- Original Message -----
From:=20 Robert Mansk
Sent: Wednesday, August 21, = 2002 7:41=20 AM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Intro - = Bob=20 Mansk

Tom,
 
    I haven't = recalculated the=20 total return numbers for my total Vanguard in a while.  = Just=20 eye-balling the various accounts I would estimate the total = current loss=20 from the Q1 - 2000 peak to be 20 - 30 %.  That is with a mix that = is=20 about 50% Totl Stock Mkt, 25% Bonds 15% International = Stock, 5%=20 REIT and 5% Energy.
 
    As to my feelings = about it,=20 the appeal is that it is a low maint portfolio that has done = reasonibly=20 well through most times. I had read John Vogle's book on = using index=20 funds and buy and hold.  I bought into it.  There was also=20 a time back in the early 90's when I managed a portion of my = portfolio=20 using the Fidelity Monitor newsleter.  For a period of a = couple of=20 years I used both my current approach and followed the = newsletter.  The=20 Vanguard buy and hold strategy out performed the newsletter.  = Eventually,=20 I dropped the newsletter and went strickly with Vanguard buy and=20 hold.
   
    On a go forward, I = would like=20 to depend less on Vanguard index fund buy and=20 hold.   
 
Bob 
----- Original Message -----
From:=20 Tom=20 Worley
Sent: Wednesday, August 21, = 2002 12:13=20 AM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Intro = - - Bob=20 Mansk

thanks for the intro, Bob, and welcome to = the group. I=20 look forward to your future participation, now that we know you are = out=20 there listening in. Curious how your performance with Vanguard = buy&hold=20 fund has been, and how you feel about it?
 
----- Original Message -----=20
From: = Robert=20 Mansk
Sent: Tuesday, August 20, 2002 9:48 PM
Subject: [CANSLIM] Intro - Bob Mansk

Hello All,
 
    I have been a = lurker on this=20 list for a few months now and thought I would make a proper = introduction of=20 myself.  I have been investing in stocks for about 20 years, = although=20 up until now, mostly passively.   I subscribed = to the=20 Vanguard buy and hold index fund approach for the bulk of my=20 holdings.  Through the recent market down turns I began to = question=20 that approach, at least for all of my holdings.  I got = serious=20 about learning more about investing in individual stocks. =20
 
    I have recently = read WON's=20 HTMMIS and I am starting to apply the concepts.  I have found = the=20 discussions here also an excellent guide and reference and look = forward to=20 participating in them.
 
    For my day job, = I am an=20 independent computer consultant, primarily as an Oracle = iDBA.
 
Bob
- ------=_NextPart_000_0034_01C248F2.01BF6080-- - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ End of canslim-digest V2 #2839 ****************************** To unsubscribe to canslim-digest, send an email to "majordomo@xmission.com" with "unsubscribe canslim-digest" in the body of the message. For information on digests or retrieving files and old messages send "help" to the same address. Do not use quotes in your message.