From: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com (canslim-digest) To: canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Subject: canslim-digest V2 #2849 Reply-To: canslim Sender: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Errors-To: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Precedence: bulk Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable X-No-Archive: yes canslim-digest Thursday, August 22 2002 Volume 02 : Number 2849 In this issue: Re: [CANSLIM] 'M' RE: [CANSLIM] IBD Cops Lurk Re: [CANSLIM] IBD Cops Lurk Re: [CANSLIM] The ultimate "M" meter ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Date: Thu, 22 Aug 2002 21:34:50 -0400 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] 'M' Robert, interesting observation, hopefully others can confirm this as a pattern. While there are always exceptions, I typically find the small cap companies far more "leaner and meaner" than more mature companies. Often, the executives are also the founders, and hold large stakes in the company from before it went public. Having helped "birth" 20 or more small companies into the public arena, I am familiar with how such deals are structured, and know that the founders have the most at stake in building it into a vibrant winner. I find them far less likely to engage in financial shenanigans, far more likely to be working late evenings or on the weekend building the company, which speaks strongly to my "assessment" of management. But if order demand is picking up for this company this way, and continues, it also should be picking up for larger suppliers, and that would be very significant indeed. - ----- Original Message ----- From: "Robert Gammon" To: Sent: Thursday, August 22, 2002 9:46 AM Subject: [CANSLIM] 'M' There are those that argue that the small cap universe is the leading indicator of the trends in the economy. Here is an anecdotal story. My wife works for a small injection molding plastics company. The company supplies parts to a variety of businesses locally and across the country. None of the product is sold to retailers or distributors, the customers of each part produced manage their own distribution channels. Business has been lack luster at best for the last 9 months or more. Of late, as in the last two weeks, business is booming. Customers are calling to place orders, and calling back in 30 minutes wondering why the order is not on their loading dock yet. How many times is this story repeated throughout the USA? I don't know. If this is something more than an isolated case or two, then we may have the beginnings of a trend. Robert Gammon Houston, TX - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 22 Aug 2002 21:37:31 -0400 From: "Duke Miller" Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] IBD Cops Lurk This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------=_NextPart_000_0019_01C24A24.226BBF80 Content-Type: multipart/alternative; boundary="----=_NextPart_001_001A_01C24A24.226BBF80" - ------=_NextPart_001_001A_01C24A24.226BBF80 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="us-ascii" Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit Jim: If they "just read the emails" then they must be a member of the list. You can't do that without being a member (as some of those lately who've be "busted" for behavioral reasons.) Duke - -----Original Message----- From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com] On Behalf Of Jim Fulling Sent: Thursday, August 22, 2002 6:19 PM To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] IBD Cops Lurk duke i think they simply read the emails. in today's paper in the investor's corner they say in an internet message board etc. well what they are referring to (i believe) was said by K.A.M. (pronounced CALM) just recently on this board. the north idaho lurker (or is it lunker) jim fulling - ----- Original Message ----- From: Duke Miller To: CANSLIM Sent: Thursday, August 22, 2002 3:08 PM Subject: [CANSLIM] IBD Cops Lurk All... Earlier this week I got a Certified Letter from IBD warning me that my posting on July 21st of a spreadsheet from Screen of the Day is in violation of the Terms and Conditions of Investors.com. I've conversed with several members off list regarding this matter, and the reactions have been mixed. The point is the material they provide is proprietary. Since not everyone on this list subscribes to IBD, it's important that when you post something herein it is not in violation of their Terms and Conditions. I have my own mixed feelings, ranging from silly to respectful: Silly, because this list is one of the more respected lists out there (as in non-Yahoo-ish), and if ever there was a bonanza freebie for IBD, this is it! You can't buy this kind of publicity! The fact that from time to time we pass along "privileged" information itself stirs curiosity amongst lurkers, whetting their appetites for more. They ultimately end up subscribing, etc, etc. I am, however, respectful, because they're right--they own the material and it's for the personal use only of subscribers. I just wonder which one of us is the "mole". C'est la vie.... Duke This email, including any attachments, was scanned by Norton Anti-Virus prior to being sent. - ------=_NextPart_001_001A_01C24A24.226BBF80 Content-Type: text/html; charset="us-ascii" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Message
Jim:
 
If they "just = read the=20 emails" then they must be a member of the list.  You can't do that = without=20 being a member (as some of those lately who've be "busted" for = behavioral=20 reasons.)
 
Duke
-----Original Message-----
From:=20 owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com = [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]=20 On Behalf Of Jim Fulling
Sent: Thursday, August 22, = 2002 6:19=20 PM
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
Subject: Re: = [CANSLIM]=20 IBD Cops Lurk

duke i think they simply read the = emails. in=20 today's paper in the investor's corner they say in an internet message = board=20 etc. well what they are referring to (i believe) was said by K.A.M.=20 (pronounced CALM) just recently on this board.
the north idaho lurker (or is it = lunker) jim=20 fulling
----- Original Message -----
From:=20 Duke Miller
To: CANSLIM
Sent: Thursday, August 22, = 2002 3:08=20 PM
Subject: [CANSLIM] IBD Cops = Lurk

All...
 
Earlier = this week I got=20 a Certified Letter from IBD warning me that my posting on July = 21st of=20 a spreadsheet from Screen of the Day is in violation of the Terms = and=20 Conditions of Investors.com. 
 
I've = conversed with=20 several members off list regarding this matter, and the reactions = have been=20 mixed. 
 
The point = is the=20 material they provide is proprietary.  Since not everyone = on this=20 list subscribes to IBD, it's important that when you post something = herein=20 it is not in violation of their Terms and Conditions. =20
 
I have my = own mixed=20 feelings, ranging from silly to respectful:  =
 
Silly, = because this=20 list is one of the more respected lists out there (as in = non-Yahoo-ish), and=20 if ever there was a bonanza freebie for IBD, this is it!  You = can't buy=20 this kind of publicity!  The fact that from time to time we = pass along=20 "privileged" information itself stirs curiosity amongst lurkers, = whetting=20 their appetites for more. They ultimately end up subscribing, etc,=20 etc. 
 
I am, = however,=20 respectful, because they're right--they own the material and it's = for the=20 personal use only of subscribers.  I just wonder which one of = us is the=20 "mole".
 
C'est la=20 vie....
 
Duke
 

This email, including any attachments, was scanned = by Norton=20 Anti-Virus prior to being sent.

3D""
 
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Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 22 Aug 2002 21:49:03 -0400 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] IBD Cops Lurk This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------=_NextPart_000_0061_01C24A25.BB04E220 Content-Type: multipart/alternative; boundary="----=_NextPart_001_0062_01C24A25.BB04E220" - ------=_NextPart_001_0062_01C24A25.BB04E220 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable MessageDuke, the funny thing is, if you don't identify your primary = source and also "blend in" other sources until the final product is your = own creation, they have no complaint. That is what I was forced to do = when my weekly scans of stocks at or close to new highs came entirely = from DGO. Once or twice I posted the spread sheet of data right from = DGO's report, after deleting every stock I didn't mention (from several = hundred down to about 30). Instead of appreciating that I was showing = non subscribers the quantity and quality of CANSLIM data available from = DGO, they threatened me as well. Seems to be corporate policy of both = DGO and IBD, with presumably lurkers from both companies in our midst.=20 They don't seem to mind when you quote current data on a short list of = stocks, just can't copy directly from them. I will always wonder just = how many articles printed in IBD were a direct result of ideas, comments = and observations of our postings here, and taken from this group without = any attribution or credit. They are strictly one way, what is theirs is = theirs, and what is ours is theirs as well. - ----- Original Message -----=20 From: Duke Miller=20 To: CANSLIM=20 Sent: Thursday, August 22, 2002 6:08 PM Subject: [CANSLIM] IBD Cops Lurk All... Earlier this week I got a Certified Letter from IBD warning me that my = posting on July 21st of a spreadsheet from Screen of the Day is in = violation of the Terms and Conditions of Investors.com. =20 I've conversed with several members off list regarding this matter, and = the reactions have been mixed. =20 The point is the material they provide is proprietary. Since not = everyone on this list subscribes to IBD, it's important that when you = post something herein it is not in violation of their Terms and = Conditions. =20 I have my own mixed feelings, ranging from silly to respectful: =20 Silly, because this list is one of the more respected lists out there = (as in non-Yahoo-ish), and if ever there was a bonanza freebie for IBD, = this is it! You can't buy this kind of publicity! The fact that from = time to time we pass along "privileged" information itself stirs = curiosity amongst lurkers, whetting their appetites for more. They = ultimately end up subscribing, etc, etc. =20 I am, however, respectful, because they're right--they own the material = and it's for the personal use only of subscribers. I just wonder which = one of us is the "mole". C'est la vie.... Duke This email, including any attachments, was scanned by Norton Anti-Virus = prior to being sent.=20 - ------=_NextPart_001_0062_01C24A25.BB04E220 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Message
Duke, the funny thing is, if you don't identify = your=20 primary source and also "blend in" other sources until the final product = is your=20 own creation, they have no complaint. That is what I was forced to do = when my=20 weekly scans of stocks at or close to new highs came entirely from DGO. = Once or=20 twice I posted the spread sheet of data right from DGO's report, after = deleting=20 every stock I didn't mention (from several hundred down to about 30). = Instead of=20 appreciating that I was showing non subscribers the quantity and quality = of=20 CANSLIM data available from DGO, they threatened me as well. Seems to be = corporate policy of both DGO and IBD, with presumably lurkers from both=20 companies in our midst.
 
They don't seem to mind when you quote current = data on a=20 short list of stocks, just can't copy directly from them. I will always = wonder=20 just how many articles printed in IBD were a direct result of ideas, = comments=20 and observations of our postings here, and taken from this group without = any=20 attribution or credit. They are strictly one way, what is theirs is = theirs, and=20 what is ours is theirs as well.
 
----- Original Message -----=20
From: Duke=20 Miller
To: CANSLIM
Sent: Thursday, August 22, 2002 6:08 PM
Subject: [CANSLIM] IBD Cops Lurk

All...
 
Earlier this = week I got a=20 Certified Letter from IBD warning me that my posting on July = 21st of a=20 spreadsheet from Screen of the Day is in violation of the Terms and = Conditions=20 of Investors.com. 
 
I've conversed = with several=20 members off list regarding this matter, and the reactions have been = mixed. =20
 
The point is = the material=20 they provide is proprietary.  Since not everyone on this list=20 subscribes to IBD, it's important that when you post something herein it = is not=20 in violation of their Terms and Conditions. 
 
I have my own = mixed=20 feelings, ranging from silly to respectful: 
 
Silly, because = this list is=20 one of the more respected lists out there (as in non-Yahoo-ish), and if = ever=20 there was a bonanza freebie for IBD, this is it!  You can't buy = this kind=20 of publicity!  The fact that from time to time we pass along = "privileged"=20 information itself stirs curiosity amongst lurkers, whetting their = appetites for=20 more. They ultimately end up subscribing, etc, etc.  =
 
I am, however, = respectful,=20 because they're right--they own the material and it's for the personal = use only=20 of subscribers.  I just wonder which one of us is the=20 "mole".
 
C'est la=20 vie....
 
Duke
 

This email, including any attachments, was scanned by = Norton=20 Anti-Virus prior to being sent.

3D""
 
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Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 22 Aug 2002 21:56:23 -0400 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] The ultimate "M" meter This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------=_NextPart_000_0080_01C24A26.C1C12AF0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Thanks Curt, both for the understanding and the introduction. Because = you wrote in the "first person, plural" tense I jumped to the conclusion = that you were part of the site you mentioned, should have asked first. = My only excuse is too many 12-14 hour work days, six days a week. Working for a defense contractor, I have no doubt you will have some = observations that can benefit us all, as it right now appears to me to = be a definite candidate for growth for the next few years. And that's = despite the unpredictability of govt contracting. - ----- Original Message -----=20 From: Curt Corley=20 To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20 Sent: Thursday, August 22, 2002 7:20 PM Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] The ultimate "M" meter It certainly wasn't my intention to do any commercial solicitation. I am = not -- in any way -- professionally affiliated with the products or = people that I mentioned earlier and could not benefit from endorsing = their products. I'm a software engineer working on a missile defense = project for a major aeorospace-defense company. The sources I mentioned = were used as references only, because I like to back up my words with = examples and facts.=20 =20 You're right. I definitely did not catch the fact that commercial = solicitation is prohibited - especially since there have been numerous = references to commercial sources within the E-mails here in the last few = days, including IBD, Daily Graphs, HTTMIS, and links to cup-with-handle = sites. However, I'm sorry that for the faux pas and will now explain = why I joined the group. =20 I started getting interested in investments a few years back because of = my 401K account. Unfortunately, I bought into the hype that you should = buy indexed funds using dollar-cost averaging. Well, this worked for a = while, and I was satisfied with the results. However, when the bear = market started about 2 =BD years ago, I lost a considerable sum of = money. Whenever something goes sour, I don't cry about it. I analyze = what went wrong and figure out what I can do to correct the problem. So = after getting crushed at the onslaught of the bear market, I started = studying and reading everything I could get my hands on concerning = investment and trading of stock securities. Naturally, my enthusiasm = boiled over into the work place. I was talking to a coworker who is a = diehard CANSLIM advocate, so I bought the HTTMIS book. WON's book made = a lot of sense to me, and I decided to learn everything I could about = CANSLIM. While searching the internet for CANSLIM sites, I found this = mailing list. =20 =20 I was initially offended to be accused of commercial solicitation (can = you blame me?). However, after getting over my initial reaction and = thinking things over from your point of view, there are no hard = feelings. I can understand your concern about the quality of this = mailing list. If people let salesmen get on the mailing list and start = pitching their products, the list would degenerate with spam. It has = been challenging enough to find enough time to read through the dozens = of good messages that I've received every day so far. I respect your = assertiveness in ensuring the quality of this list. Thank you. =20 From what I've seen so far, you have some great advice on this mailing = list. I hope I too can contribute something useful in the future. =20 =20 Curt =20 - -----Original Message----- From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com = [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com] On Behalf Of Tom Worley Sent: Thursday, August 22, 2002 6:28 AM To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] The ultimate "M" meter =20 Curt, if you had lurked here more than a few days, you might have caught = the fact that commercial solicitation is prohibited. =20 If that's not what you intended, then I suggest you introduce yourself = and tell us why you have joined our group. =20 - ----- Original Message -----=20 From: Curt Corley=20 To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20 Sent: Thursday, August 22, 2002 3:16AM Subject: [CANSLIM] The ultimate "M" meter =20 I've been lurking here for a few days, and I would like to put in my two = cents' worth about the question of whether we're in a bull or a bear = market. I'd also like to give my personal opinion of what the ultimate = "M" meter is. But first, I want to get some definitions down to make = sure we're speaking the same language here. I will use the definitions = that are put forth by the Dow Theory and which, IMHO, are best described = in the book "Technical Analysis of Stock Trends" by by Robert D. = Edwards, John Magee, W. H. C. Bassetti (Editor). =20 =20 What's a bull/bear market? =3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D In "TA of Stock Trends," the authors state that a primary trend is the = general direction of price movement over a year or more. A bull market = is a primary trend containing higher highs and higher lows in price. A = bear market is a primary trend containing lower highs and lower lows in = price. Within the primary trend are secondary trends. Secondary trends = last from 3 weeks to many months, and they do not (repeat not) qualify = as bear or bull markets. The secondary trends are merely the = corrections within a bull market and the rallies within a bear markets. = In addition to the primary and secondary trends, there are minor trends = that usually last less than 6 days and rarely as long as 3 weeks, but = they are of little importance here. The main thing that I would like to = get across is this: Using the definitions just described, you can't = talk about bear and bull markets unless you're talking about a time = frame of about a year. =20 What do we use for an "M" Meter? =3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D Now that the definitions are out of the way, we can talk about how to = get in and out of bull markets easily using our "M" meter. If you're = having CWs (i.e., CANSLIM Withdrawals) during a bear market, you might = try CANSLIM'ing during a rally within the bear market. You can use our = "M" meter to detect rallies as well. The "M" meter is so simple that I = feel like a few of you are not going to believe me and will tell me to = pack sand - but, oh well, here it goes. The "M" meters are moving = averages. =20 For a good explanation as to why this works, visit = http://www.401k-maximizer.com/. =20 =20 How do we use the "M" Meter? =3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D The index you choose to graph will depend on the kind of security you're = investing in. For general growth stocks, the QQQ ticker symbol (NASDAQ) = is a good one to use. For especially small cap growth stocks, you can = choose one of the Russell indexes, such as the Russell 2000. To get a = feel for whether you're in a bull/bear market, plot the index against a = 200-day moving average. To get a feel for whether you're in a = rally/correction, plot the index against a 50-day moving average. The = reasons we choose a 200-day average for bear/bull "M" indicator are = because it is: (1) a length of time that approximates the number of = trading days in one year - the minimum time frame for a bull/bear = market, and (2) it is an indicator that is highly watched by many = elephants. The reasons we choose a 50-day average for the = rally/correction "M" indicator are fairly the same: (1) it's a highly = watched indicator, (2) it is a time frame that makes a good compromise = between getting you in and out of a rally without whipsawing you in and = out. =20 Defense of the "M" Meter =3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D Try plotting a 3-year graph of QQQ against a 200-day EMA moving average. = Imagine yourself getting in on that market when the prices crossed = above the 200-day MA and getting out of the market when the prices = crossed below the 200-day MA. You might have gotten whip-sawed 3 or 4 = times between April and September of 2000 (allowing you to participate = in the rallies of June and August). But you would have stayed out of = the bear market since September. =20 Are we still in a bear market? =3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D Truth is: nobody knows yet, because enough time hasn't passed. That's = the way it goes. In a reversal like this, you never know whether it's = rally or the start of a new bull market until enough time has passed = (like the saying goes: Hindsight is 20/20). But whether we're truly in = a bull market or bear market is irrelevant to me. All I care about is = our meter. And the meter says this. Yesterday (Aug. 21) QQQ finally = crossed above the 50-day EMA, but it's still a long way from reaching = the 200-day EMA. I might get into stocks slowly and cautiously right = now, but I'm certainly not ready to jump in with both feet. =20 - -- Curt - ------=_NextPart_000_0080_01C24A26.C1C12AF0 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
Thanks Curt, both for the understanding and the=20 introduction. Because you wrote in the "first person, plural" tense I = jumped to=20 the conclusion that you were part of the site you mentioned, should have = asked=20 first. My only excuse is too many 12-14 hour work days, six days a=20 week.
 
Working for a defense contractor, I have no = doubt you will=20 have some observations that can benefit us all, as it right now appears = to me to=20 be a definite candidate for growth for the next few years. And that's = despite=20 the unpredictability of govt contracting.
 
----- Original Message -----=20
From: Curt = Corley=20
Sent: Thursday, August 22, 2002 7:20 PM
Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] The ultimate "M" meter

It certainly = wasn=92t my=20 intention to do any commercial solicitation. I am not -- in any way --=20 professionally affiliated with the products or people that I mentioned = earlier=20 and could not benefit from endorsing their products.  I=92m a software engineer = working on a=20 missile defense project for a major aeorospace-defense=20 company.  The sources I = mentioned=20 were used as references only, because I like to back up my words with = examples=20 and facts.

 

You=92re = right.  I definitely did not catch the = fact that=20 commercial solicitation is prohibited =96 especially since there have = been=20 numerous references to commercial sources within the E-mails here in the = last=20 few days, including IBD, Daily Graphs, HTTMIS, and links to = cup-with-handle=20 sites.   However, = I=92m sorry=20 that for the faux pas and will now explain why I joined the=20 group.

 

I started = getting=20 interested in investments a few years back because of my 401K = account.  Unfortunately, I bought into = the hype=20 that you should buy indexed funds using dollar-cost averaging.  Well, this worked for a while, = and I was=20 satisfied with the results. =20 However, when the bear market started about 2 =BD years ago, I = lost a=20 considerable sum of money.  = Whenever=20 something goes sour, I don=92t cry about it. =20 I analyze what went wrong and figure out what I can do to correct = the=20 problem.  So after getting = crushed=20 at the onslaught of the bear market, I started studying and reading = everything I=20 could get my hands on concerning investment and trading of stock=20 securities.  Naturally, my = enthusiasm boiled over into the work place.  I was talking to a coworker = who is a=20 diehard CANSLIM advocate, so I bought the HTTMIS book.  WON=92s book=20 made a lot of sense to me, and I decided to learn everything I could = about=20 CANSLIM.  While searching = the=20 internet for CANSLIM sites, I found this mailing list. 

 

I was = initially=20 offended to be accused of commercial solicitation (can you blame = me?).  However, after getting over my = initial=20 reaction and thinking things over from your point of view, there are no = hard=20 feelings.  I can = understand your=20 concern about the quality of this mailing list.  If people let salesmen get on = the=20 mailing list and start pitching their products, the list would = degenerate with=20 spam.  It has been = challenging=20 enough to find enough time to read through the dozens of good messages = that I=92ve=20 received every day so far.  = I=20 respect your assertiveness in ensuring the quality of this list.  Thank = you.

 

From what = I=92ve seen so=20 far, you have some great advice on this mailing list.   I hope I too can = contribute=20 something useful in the future. =20

 

Curt

 

-----Original=20 Message-----
From:=20 owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com=20 [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com] On Behalf Of Tom = Worley
Sent: Thursday, August 22,=20 2002 6:28=20 AM
To: = canslim@lists.xmission.com
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] The = ultimate "M"=20 meter

 

Curt, if you had lurked = here more=20 than a few days, you might have caught the fact that commercial = solicitation is=20 prohibited.

 

If that's not what you = intended,=20 then I suggest you introduce yourself and tell us why you have joined = our=20 group.

 

----- Original Message = - -----=20

From: Curt = Corley=20

To: canslim@lists.xmission.com= =20

Sent:=20 Thursday, = August 22,=20 2002 3:16AM

Subject: [CANSLIM]=20 The ultimate "M" meter

 

I=92ve been lurking here = for a few=20 days, and I would like to put in my two cents=92 worth about the = question of=20 whether we=92re in a bull or a bear market. =20 I=92d also like to give my personal opinion of what the ultimate = =93M=94 meter=20 is.  But first, I want to = get some=20 definitions down to make sure we=92re speaking the same language = here.  I will use the definitions = that are put=20 forth by the Dow Theory and which, IMHO, are best described in the book=20 =93Technical Analysis of Stock Trends=94 by by Robert = D. Edwards, John=20 Magee, W.=20 H. C. Bassetti (Editor). 

 

What=92s a bull/bear=20 market?

=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D

In =93TA of Stock = Trends,=94 the authors=20 state that a primary trend is the general direction of price movement = over a=20 year or more.  A bull = market is a=20 primary trend containing higher highs and higher lows in price.  A bear market is a primary = trend=20 containing lower highs and lower lows in price.  Within the primary trend are = secondary=20 trends.  Secondary trends = last from=20 3 weeks to many months, and they do not (repeat not) qualify as bear or = bull=20 markets.  The secondary = trends are=20 merely the corrections within a bull market and the rallies within a = bear=20 markets.  In addition to = the primary=20 and secondary trends, there are minor trends that usually last less than = 6 days=20 and rarely as long as 3 weeks, but they are of little importance = here.  The main thing that I would = like to get=20 across is this:  Using the = definitions just described, you can=92t talk about bear and bull markets = unless=20 you=92re talking about a time frame of about a = year.

 

What do we use for an = =93M=94=20 Meter?

=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D= =3D=3D

Now that the definitions = are out of=20 the way, we can talk about how to get in and out of bull markets easily = using=20 our =93M=94 meter.  If = you=92re having CWs=20 (i.e., CANSLIM Withdrawals) during a bear market, you might try = CANSLIM=92ing=20 during a rally within the bear market. =20 You can use our =93M=94 meter to detect rallies as well.  The =93M=94 meter is so simple = that I feel=20 like a few of you are not going to believe me and will tell me to pack = sand =96=20 but, oh well, here it goes.  = The =93M=94=20 meters are moving averages. =20

For a good explanation as = to why=20 this works, visit http://www.401k-maximizer.com/.   =20

 

How do we use the =93M=94=20 Meter?

=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D

The index you choose to = graph will=20 depend on the kind of security you=92re investing in.  For general growth stocks, the = QQQ=20 ticker symbol (NASDAQ) is a good one to use.  For especially small cap = growth stocks,=20 you can choose one of the Russell indexes, such as the Russell = 2000.  To get a feel for whether = you=92re in a=20 bull/bear market, plot the index against a 200-day moving average.  To get a feel for whether = you=92re in a=20 rally/correction, plot the index against a 50-day moving average.  The reasons we choose a = 200-day average=20 for bear/bull =93M=94 indicator are because it is: (1) a length of time = that=20 approximates the number of trading days in one year =96 the minimum time = frame for=20 a bull/bear market, and (2) it is an indicator that is highly watched by = many=20 elephants.  The reasons we = choose a=20 50-day average for the rally/correction =93M=94 indicator are fairly the = same: (1)=20 it=92s a highly watched indicator, (2) it is a time frame that makes a = good=20 compromise between getting you in and out of a rally without whipsawing = you in=20 and out.

 

Defense of the =93M=94=20 Meter

=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D<= /SPAN>

Try plotting a 3-year = graph of QQQ=20 against a 200-day EMA moving average. =20 Imagine yourself getting in on that market when the prices = crossed above=20 the 200-day MA and getting out of the market when the prices crossed = below the=20 200-day MA. You might have gotten whip-sawed 3 or 4 times between April = and=20 September of 2000 (allowing you to participate in the rallies of June = and=20 August).  But you would = have stayed=20 out of the bear market since September.

 

Are we still in a bear=20 market?

=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D

Truth is: nobody knows = yet, because=20 enough time hasn=92t passed. That=92s the way it goes.  In a reversal like this, you = never know=20 whether it=92s rally or the start of a new bull market until enough time = has=20 passed (like the saying goes: Hindsight is 20/20).  But whether we=92re truly in a = bull market=20 or bear market is irrelevant to me. =20 All I care about is our meter. =20 And the meter says this. =20 Yesterday (Aug. 21) QQQ finally crossed above the 50-day EMA, but = it=92s=20 still a long way from reaching the 200-day EMA.  I might get into stocks slowly = and=20 cautiously right now, but I=92m certainly not ready to jump in with both = feet.

 

--=20 Curt

- ------=_NextPart_000_0080_01C24A26.C1C12AF0-- - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ End of canslim-digest V2 #2849 ****************************** To unsubscribe to canslim-digest, send an email to "majordomo@xmission.com" with "unsubscribe canslim-digest" in the body of the message. For information on digests or retrieving files and old messages send "help" to the same address. Do not use quotes in your message.