From: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com (canslim-digest) To: canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Subject: canslim-digest V2 #285 Reply-To: canslim Sender: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Errors-To: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Precedence: bulk X-No-Archive: yes canslim-digest Monday, June 15 1998 Volume 02 : Number 285 In this issue: [CANSLIM] AMZN Re: [CANSLIM] cpwr Re: [CANSLIM] AMZN Re: [CANSLIM] AMZN Re: [CANSLIM] Re: Scan--Thomas Re: [CANSLIM] AMZN Re: [CANSLIM] AMZN Re: [CANSLIM] Re: Scan--Thomas Re: [CANSLIM] AMZN Re: [CANSLIM] Counting from the low--Jeffry Re: [CANSLIM] Counting from the low--Jeffry Re: [CANSLIM] AMZN--Shorts, Eat My Re: [CANSLIM] Mkt "noise" - JW don't read (was William J. O'Neil talks stocks) [CANSLIM] World Market Charts @ Yahoo! Yippee! Re: [CANSLIM] Mkt "noise" - JW don't read (was William J. O'Neil talks stocks) [CANSLIM] Fw: List of adds and deletes to the Russell indexes Re: [CANSLIM] Technical Analysis [CANSLIM] -- Not Canslim - Nikkei [CANSLIM] Technical Analysis Re: [CANSLIM] The NAZ - Weekly/Daily--Dave Re: [CANSLIM] The NAZ - Weekly/Daily Re: [CANSLIM] JW's continuing snide comments (was Counting from the low) Re: [CANSLIM] cpwr [CANSLIM] Market Efficiency (Non Canslim) Re: [CANSLIM] What Does It All Mean? Re: [CANSLIM] The NAZ - Weekly/Daily Re: [CANSLIM] Technical Analysis--Tom Re: [CANSLIM] JW's continuing snide comments (was Counting from the low) Re: [CANSLIM] World Market Charts @ Yahoo! Yippee! Re: [CANSLIM] Mkt "noise" - JW don't read (was William J. O'Neil talks stocks) Re: [CANSLIM] -- Not Canslim - Nikkei Re: [CANSLIM] Technical Analysis Re: [CANSLIM] Technical Analysis--Tom ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Date: Mon, 15 Jun 1998 14:57:31 -0400 From: Jeffry White Subject: [CANSLIM] AMZN Does anybody think AMZN looks like a good long entry here, or is it a bit extended beyond the buy point? ;) Jeffry - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 15 Jun 1998 11:43:12 -0700 (PDT) From: dbphoenix Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] cpwr <> I think you may have something, Patrick. The volume pattern is a very good example of the typical v.p. for a C&H. It shows particularly well on a weekly chart (it's also sitting on an intermediate-term trendline begun last December). You know the risks of buying off the bottom of the cup. If you're lucky, it'll regain its strength slowly and perhaps even form a short handle at the 48-50 level, then break out from there. Think about buying part of your stake as it comes off the bottom and the rest when it breaks out of the handle. If it doesn't form a handle, you could buy the rest at the new-high breakout. Certainly not the only way of doing it. Just something for the mind to chew on. And it doesn't hurt that the group is with you. - --Db _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 15 Jun 1998 12:39:12 -0700 From: Bill Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] AMZN Tried shorting - Schwab had no stock left. :-( Bill-->> - -------------- Jeffry White wrote: > > Does anybody think AMZN looks like a good long entry here, or is it a > bit extended beyond the buy point? ;) > > Jeffry > > - - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 15 Jun 1998 12:46:40 -0700 From: Tim Fisher Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] AMZN I hope you are both being sarcastic. At 67 there's no way any sane person would want in after a 1-week 20 point run, and since it's in a screaming uptrend with no rollover in sight, no sane person would short this rocket (IMHO one with little fuel) YET.=20 At 12:39 PM 6/15/98 , you wrote: >Tried shorting - Schwab had no stock left. :-( > >Bill-->> >-------------- > >Jeffry White wrote: >>=20 >> Does anybody think AMZN looks like a good long entry here, or is it a >> bit extended beyond the buy point?=A0 ;) >>=20 >> Jeffry >>=20 >> - > >- >=20 Tim Fisher Ore-Rock-On and Pacific Fishery Biologists WWW Sites mailto:Tim@OreRockOn.com WWW: http://OreRockOn.com See naked fish and rocks! - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 15 Jun 1998 15:53:52 -0500 From: "Thomas A. Moulton" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Re: Scan--Thomas dbphoenix wrote: > < digit gains in a few weeks and the loosers are usually single digit > loosers... sounds like a winning combination to me! > -- > Thomas A. Moulton, W2VY>> > > If you mean that you have the discipline to cut your losses quickly, > you're a lot farther along than most. Congratulations, Thomas. Looks > like you have the important stuff nailed. But that was on paper and holding them all the ame number of days... I think that I can sell when I am supposed to... I have done some options trading and once watched about $400 go down the drain because I didn't sell when I should have... I had a few other $50-$75 losses because I bought at the wrong time but felt good selling because they then went further down... i then doubled on the MSFT stock split and then stopped options, too much sweat and nail bitting... then my son started learning about the market in high school and the teacher signed them all up for a two week trail to IBD... we then subscribed and i've been testing ever since... i like it a lot better then options... - -- Thomas A. Moulton, W2VY Green Hills Software email: tmoulton@ghs.com pager: http://www.xanthus.net/w2vy - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 15 Jun 1998 12:06:49 -0700 (PDT) From: dbphoenix Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] AMZN <> Isn't it great that all that speculative froth has worked its way out of the market? - --Db _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 15 Jun 1998 16:26:58 -0400 From: "Frank V. Wolynski" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] AMZN I may have read somewhere that Warren Buffet was wanting to put all that Nike and McDonalds money to work! Could be a buyout! Never know! :-) Does this mean pulp (paper) futures are going vertical? Frank Wolynski (On second thought, I may not have read that about Mr. Buffet!) At 12:06 PM 6/15/98 -0700, dbphoenix wrote: ><bit extended beyond the buy point? ;) > >Jeffry>> > >Isn't it great that all that speculative froth has worked its way out >of the market? > >--Db > >_________________________________________________________ >DO YOU YAHOO!? >Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com >- - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 15 Jun 1998 13:12:09 -0700 (PDT) From: dbphoenix Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Re: Scan--Thomas <> They are valuable lessons, nonetheless. And you're lucky you didn't have to learn them by risking your retirement money. - --Db _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 15 Jun 1998 14:27:24 -0700 From: Bill Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] AMZN That was a classic short term shorting situation around 3:10 PM, Tim. AMZN made its first run between 9:30 - 11:15 with solid volume behind it. Then in the afternoon, around 3:10, it made another attempt hitting a high of 68 1/2 with less volume than the morning run, dooming it to a sell off. I am surprised it only went down to 65 3/4 but you may be correct in that it does appear to have some fuel left and my shorting urge (insanity as you call it) will be held in abbeyance for a while. Now that I think of it, according to Jeff, the market has turned since early April, and most are still thinking LONG. What's wrong with a little CANSLIM shorting strategy? Give me your shorts! :-; Bill-->> Tim Fisher wrote: > > I hope you are both being sarcastic. At 67 there's no way any sane person > would > want in after a 1-week 20 point run, and since it's in a screaming uptrend > with > no rollover in sight, no sane person would short this rocket (IMHO one with > little fuel) YET. > > At 12:39 PM 6/15/98 , you wrote: > >Tried shorting - Schwab had no stock left. :-( > > > >Bill-->> > >-------------- > > > >Jeffry White wrote: > >> > >> Does anybody think AMZN looks like a good long entry here, or is it a > >> bit extended beyond the buy point?  ;) > >> > >> Jeffry > >> > >> - > > > >- > > > Tim Fisher > Ore-Rock-On and Pacific Fishery Biologists WWW Sites > > mailto:Tim@OreRockOn.com > WWW: http://OreRockOn.com > See naked fish and rocks! > > - - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 15 Jun 1998 11:09:06 -0700 (PDT) From: dbphoenix Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Counting from the low--Jeffry <> ROTFLMAO!!! No. I'll just dig out my copy of Word Mastery Made Simple and whip you with it. I'll be interested to hear your response. These groups can sometimes get awfully inbred. One group which I frequented interpreted "rally day" the way I offered it to you, but that doesn't mean they were right. Problem is that since O'N gives so much latitude, it doesn't help much to count backwards. And it all seems like a pretty mystical solution to market-timing anyway. Which doesn't make it invalid. Just "ooooo". Discussing this stuff can be a real eye-opener. For instance, before I went online, it never occurred to me to interpret "N" almost exclusively as "new high", or to interpret "L" as "high RS", particularly since O'N warns against high RS stocks. Haven't really changed my mind, but at least I now know that there are other interpretations of these two criteria. - --Db _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 15 Jun 1998 14:49:53 -0700 (PDT) From: dbphoenix Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Counting from the low--Jeffry <> ROTF!!! No. I'll just dig out my copy of Word Mastery Made Simple and whip you with it. I'll be interested to hear your response. These groups can sometimes get awfully inbred. One group which I frequented interpreted "rally day" the way I offered it to you, but that doesn't mean they were right. Problem is that since O'N gives so much latitude, it doesn't help much to count backwards. And it all seems like a pretty mystical solution to market-timing anyway. Which doesn't make it invalid. Just "ooooo". Discussing this stuff can be a real eye-opener. For instance, before I went online, it never occurred to me to interpret "N" almost exclusively as "new high", or to interpret "L" as "high RS", particularly since O'N warns against high RS stocks. Haven't really changed my mind, but at least I now know that there are other interpretations of these two criteria. - --Db _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 15 Jun 1998 14:49:36 -0700 (PDT) From: dbphoenix Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] AMZN--Shorts, Eat My <>>> That doesn't have anything to do with eating shorts, does it? Actually it may not be too late for shorting. Anyone who wants to play with some paper trades should watch for stocks that rally on weak volume and can't penetrate resistance. There are other things to look for, of course, but this is a biggie. - --Db _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 15 Jun 1998 20:23:00 -0400 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Mkt "noise" - JW don't read (was William J. O'Neil talks stocks) Frank, I don't expect any dollar intervention, at least by the USA, until and unless there are fundamental changes in Japan. Treasury allowed rumors of intervention to float around without denial so long as there was a hope of change. But the "economic stimulus" by the Japanese govt was too little, too late, and didn't change the basic underlying system. That's why the only intervention came solely from the Japanese govt. Yes, the day that there are strong rumors, much less actual announcements, of fundamental changes by Japan, the dollar will begin to weaken and the yen strengthen. There will be some added selling pressure on the US bond mkt, and to a lesser degree on equities. This will be a partial reversal of the "safe haven" buying we have been enjoying, combined with profit taking on the bond mkt. Remember tho, safe haven buying is not coming solely from Japan or Asia. And there are legitimate economic and fundamental reasons for buying US bonds and equities. I'm glad you were able to make something playing the rally in the Asian mkt earlier this year, but look at the risk you took for only a moderately higher gain. Had you not been smart enough to get out when you did, I don't want to think about the position today. When you trade a risky mkt, you have to be decisive. Tom W - -----Original Message----- From: Frank V. Wolynski To: canslim@mail.xmission.com Date: Monday, June 15, 1998 12:50 PM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Mkt "noise" - JW don't read (was William J. O'Neil talks stocks) >Thanks Tom. My question came out wrong actually. >You are absolutely correct concerning the dollar. > >What I was actually after was support of the Yen. >I know it is early to consider how and where any strength at all would come >from for Asian currencies, but no trend lasts forever. Otherwise we could >all just buy dollars with our Yen and retire millionaires in a month or so! > >Obviously the expensive dollar hurts US exports and I do believe that a US >government intervention in support of the Yen could be an additional piece >(where are the others coming from? Don't know!) that could finally >stabilize the currencies and at that juncture cause a rally in foreign >currencies. Thus proping up the foreign economies. Would it hold? Not by >itself, but with the right additional stimulus, it could be the beginning. > >I'm not a futures trader, but at that very juncture, it would make more >sense for foreign money to be vacating the dollar and buying Yen. Also, it >seems anything valued in dollars would be at risk also. Including their >holdings in US equities. > >Yes, you were right on with your earlier call, but I rode that little >bounce during the first of the year for a 14% gain, while the domestic >counterpart my annuity has available only turned 8.5%. > >Frank Wolynski > - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 15 Jun 1998 20:31:49 -0400 From: "Frank V. Wolynski" Subject: [CANSLIM] World Market Charts @ Yahoo! Yippee! For the first time in a couple of months I clicked on a few Indexes from the World Markets page at Yahoo. To my surprise a chart came up! I've never before gotten a chart from any of the Foreign Index links. So I tried a few more, and more came up! There are a few listed that do not have charts available, I did not check them all. It also appears that their data only started in May, at least for the ones I was checking. At least it is a start anyway. And I apologize for this post if everybody on this list already knew this! Frank Wolynski - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 15 Jun 1998 20:40:32 -0400 From: "Frank V. Wolynski" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Mkt "noise" - JW don't read (was William J. O'Neil talks stocks) At 20:23 6/15/98 -0400, Tom Worley wrote: > Had you not been smart enough to get out when >you did, I don't want to think about the position today. When you >trade a risky mkt, you have to be decisive. > >Tom W > Thanks Tom, your explanation helps alot! I hope someday to be able to piece the bonds, currencies and equities altogether and get that aha! experience. In the meantime, I'll keep taking advantage of your excellent explanations as long as I can get away with it! I don't know about the smart part, but less dumb than others I can handle. Frank Wolynski - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 15 Jun 1998 20:34:44 -0400 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] Fw: List of adds and deletes to the Russell indexes For those of you attempting to trade CANSLIM type stocks, I remain convinced, like Dave Cameron, that the index that most closely reflects what's happening with CANSLIM stocks is the Russell 2000. You may not realize that we are in that time of year when stocks are added and deleted to this index. The list of the top 3000 stocks, thus making up the Russell 1000 and 2000 indexes, are being compiled and will be finalized later this month. I had trouble finding the list of likely changes, and the following email will explain how to get the lists of the adds and deletes (ones that shrunk below the newcomers) for those interested. This is a volatile time period for the adds and deletes, however by mid-July, most of the price changes caused by mutual funds buying or selling these adds and deletes will have likely evaporated. In the meantime, it may help explain strange volume or price action on no news. Tom W - -----Original Message----- From: Kitsu, Christy (Sales_Svcs) To: 'Tom Worley' Date: Monday, June 15, 1998 11:35 AM Subject: RE: List of adds and deletes to the Russell indexes > <> <> >Tom: > >The lists are on our Web site at www.russell.com in the US Indexes >section. When you go to US Indexes a second screen with data will >appear. Close that screen to return to your main browser window and >there will be a menu on the left side of your screen. Click on Index >Reconstitution under US Indexes and that's where the adds/deletes lists >will be found (there are links inside of the text to the lists). > >I have attached the lists for your convenience, but hopefully the >instructions above will help if you need the updates on the next two >Fridays. Also, if you are on AOL, we have been having some problems >with those users and our systems people are looking into them now. > >If you have any other questions, please let me know. > >Christy >ckitsu@russell.com > - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 15 Jun 1998 20:53:17 -0400 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Technical Analysis db, Isn't "market psychology and sociology" the very kind of noise you and several others criticized me for posting and polluting this group with, as just more "media type" noise?? Tom W - -----Original Message----- From: dbphoenix To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Date: Monday, June 15, 1998 10:42 AM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Technical Analysis ><analysis in general ? > Thanks !>> > >There are many, and the quality is highly variable. > >After that, there's plenty to choose from. I suggest, however, that >you focus on learning market psychology and sociology before trying to >develop or evaluate a "system", if for no other reason than if you > >--Db > - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 15 Jun 1998 21:20:13 -0400 From: "Frank V. Wolynski" Subject: [CANSLIM] -- Not Canslim - Nikkei Mikkei 225 down 1% during first 5 minutes of trading. Complete story below: http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980615/tokyo_stoc_3.html Regards, Frank Wolynski - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 15 Jun 1998 21:15:25 -0400 From: Jeffry White <"postwhit@sover.net"@sover.net> Subject: [CANSLIM] Technical Analysis > Subject: > Re: [CANSLIM] Technical Analysis > Date: > Mon, 15 Jun 98 20:53:17 -0500 > From: > "Tom Worley" > Reply-To: > canslim@TJOSLIN.COM > Organization: > THERIAULT & JOSLIN > To: > canslim@lists.xmission.com > > > db, > Isn't "market psychology and sociology" the very kind of noise you and > several others criticized me for posting and polluting this group > with, as just more "media type" noise?? > > Tom W > Tom, in case you hadn't noticed, I've been trying to ignore your taunting, and attempts at sarcasm in posts, of late. But, I must note that you really seem to like the fight. Don't you? Now, back to a very good CANSLIM "M" question posed by Db. Sorry I didn't finish it this evening, Db. Jeffry - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 15 Jun 1998 21:18:05 -0400 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] The NAZ - Weekly/Daily--Dave Funny, I've been focusing on small and micro caps for nearly a year now, done well, up over 300% in my IRA. Been fully invested for most of this time, only partially in cash while I transferred my accts. Currently nearly fully invested, all on the long side, made money last week on a net basis, made more money today, even tho I missed the explosion in PVCC. I've had no trouble keeping 18-20 stocks on my watch list, all small caps, all with great CS elements. So while big or mid cap stocks could give me more liquidity, why struggle to find candidates if I am a patient investor and can find far more than I can afford with small caps that meet most or all of the basic CS requirements? Most importantly to me, why struggle to find decent mid and big cap stocks if I can make money in small caps in a pretty ugly mkt? I do agree with you that Nasdaq index tends to more reflect the big cap stocks. That's why I pay attention to the Russell 2000, which gives a little less weight to the big cap tech stocks and more to the smaller cap financials and other small groups. I learned one lesson as a retail broker. If I was trying to seduce a new client into investing, I didn't start talking about ABC Checkcashing or some other tiny regional company the prospective client had never heard about. I talked about some national brand that the prospect could relate to, even if he had never bot their product or service. I suspect, altho admittedly can't prove even anecdotolly (spelling??), that that same philosophy accounts for WON's use of big cap charts as examples. He wants his audience to focus on a company they already know, after that it's easier to explain how to read a chart and why a certain company could/should have been bot or sold. There is a class of investors that would say "Aw, I'd never sell GM (or any other big cap name), they'll be around forever". But if you then take them thru a detailed reading of the chart, they can learn how they can be long term believers in the future of GM (or whichever) and still recognize appropriate buy and sell points. And they will relate more because they know GM, even if they never owned its stock. Admittedly, over the years that I have followed WON, and his institutional grade buys and sells, I have observed him recommend to his institutional clients many stocks that are clearly mid and big cap stocks. I think part of this is the requirement from funds for liquidity in the stocks, part of it is a reflection of the tremendous amounts of new money flowing into the mkt that must be invested somewhere. And part of it is defensive, if "M" is not looking so hot, but you gotta invest somewhere, you put the money into liquid stocks, not small caps. Tom W - -----Original Message----- From: dbphoenix To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Date: Monday, June 15, 1998 10:50 AM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] The NAZ - Weekly/Daily--Dave >Also, he uses plenty of mid and large-cap examples in the book, >including samples of charts. So he's not closed-off to the idea. > >There are distinct advantages to focusing on one segment of the >market. But if one focuses on small caps alone, he stands a good >chance of being out of the market for extended periods of time. Keep >in mind also that the Nasdaq is essentially a large-cap index. > >Finding mid and large-caps with the requisite earnings growth is more >difficult, but they do exist. > >--Db > - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 15 Jun 1998 21:27:24 -0400 From: Ari Lawson Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] The NAZ - Weekly/Daily Dave Cameron wrote: > > dbphoenix wrote: > > > > The Nasdaq charts have been transferred. There are two of them, a > > weekly with a longer view and a daily with a shorter-term view (to put > > both into one chart would make it unreadable). > > > > Thank you SO much!!!!! All this talk about the DJIA, support, resistance, > trendlines etc. is only partially relevant to me. I, and anyone who > follows CANSLIM to the letter, never would own a Dow stock. Any DJIA > stock, nearly by definition, can not be CANSLIM. As such, the Dow can > go to zero for all I care. It is merely 30 stocks. I find that the > RUT is closest to what my stocks do. There are lots of times the RUT > and the DJIA are heading in opposite directions. Hence, I ignore the > DJIA. I will use SPX or NAZ as a proxy if need be. > > Later, > > Dave Cameron > > -Exscuse my ignorance.What does RUT,stand for? Thanks. - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 15 Jun 1998 21:36:24 -0400 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] JW's continuing snide comments (was Counting from the low) You really don't let up, do you Jeffry. You singly and individually have made this group an unwelcome and unfriendly place for me to participate. I hope you are happy, or somehow get some kind of thrill from your oratory powers. Your snide comments are not only unwelcome, but uncalled for and unprofessional. I hope they work better in court for you. No, I am not departing the group because of you, I do still care about the other members who may have benefited from what I could share. But you can be directly credited with my considerable reduction in posting. Fortunately, db has more than picked up the slack. Tom W - -----Original Message----- From: Jeffry White To: canslim@mail.xmission.com Date: Monday, June 15, 1998 1:30 PM Subject: [CANSLIM] Counting from the low > >In the meantime, ponder this: if I happen to disagree with your >interpretation of the "latter" "rally" language, are you going to stomp >your feet, pout and "unsubscribe"? ;) > >Jeffry > >- > - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 15 Jun 1998 18:37:36 -0800 From: "Patrick Wahl" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] cpwr > Date: Mon, 15 Jun 1998 11:43:12 -0700 (PDT) > From: dbphoenix > I think you may have something, Patrick. The volume pattern is a very > good example of the typical v.p. for a C&H. It shows particularly > well on a weekly chart (it's also sitting on an intermediate-term > trendline begun last December). Volume was fairly heavy when it sold off in May, but finally seems to be declining. I hope I was clear that this stock isn't anywhere near a buy, or maybe I should say the market looks so poor that we can all probably take a few weeks off from any buys until it regains its balance. I've been tracking adv-decl numbers for a while now. By one measure I look at (5 day avg of diff. in adv-decl, a short term indicator only), the market is at its most oversold level in several years as of the close today, 6-15. On a bit broader measure, in April I started keeping a running total of the net difference in advances and declines. In the 2+ months since then, the number has fallen to - -13,000. So definitely selling going on even as the dow and s&p have been going sideways. (Hey, here is a news flash I just heard on CNBC - some people think this is the long awaited correction. Wow, what insight.) - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 15 Jun 1998 18:37:36 -0800 From: "Patrick Wahl" Subject: [CANSLIM] Market Efficiency (Non Canslim) Here are some bits and pieces from a couple of articles I've read in the last month or so - About a month ago the WSJ ran an article comparing the performance of stocks immediatelyl following positive and negative earnings surprises now and ten years ago. Ten years ago, the charts presented by the Journal showed that it took several days for the news to be assimilated into the price of the stock. Today it is almost immediate. The reasons given are that first, information is disseminated much more quickly than it was even 10 years ago. Fund managers would get the earning report via mail, several days after first being reported. Also, what was an earnings surprise or disappointment wasn't as clear then, since things like First Call weren't available - the consensus wasn't as well known as it is today. This week, along these same lines, Business Week had a brief blurb about an economist named Bernstein who was inspired by an essay by Stephen Jay Gould. In that essay, Gould talked about the decline of the .400 hitter in baseball, where he decided it was because baseball became more efficient, so to speak, where they learned how to pitch to and defend the better players (among other things, the idea is more complicated than that, interesting essay for any baseball fans). Bernstein examined the performance of various funds in terms of how many and by how much they beat the market averages. He found that the investing stars are leading the pack by smaller margins, more people are clustering around the median. He attributed this to several factors - including better valuation models, generally better skills in picking stocks, but also, there is more risk in lagging the market than there is reward for hitting the homerun, so fund managers pursue a more conservative strategy. Anyway, the two articles all seemed to point to more efficient markets, as everyone looks at the same information, which is available more and more widely and more quickly than ever. - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 15 Jun 1998 18:44:53 -0700 (PDT) From: dbphoenix Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] What Does It All Mean? <> Congratulations on your "300%". As far as the "struggle" goes, I couldn't agree more. I don't struggle to find small and microcaps. Or large caps. Or midcaps. I look for companies with strong and growing earnings and revenues that look to make a mark in the world. It doesn't really matter to me what the capitalization is. <> While you may or may not have some special insight into O'N's thought processes, one could do worse than follow the money. No one is attacking your affection for small and microcaps, least of all me. One of my greatest successes was TFONY (Telmex, children) way back when. But it is simply not the case that CS is an exclusively smallcap strategy. Aside from his printed material and seminars, which are not directed to the professional fund manager community, his online recommendations of largecap drug stocks can hardly be considered institutional recommendations either, though he may make those recommendations to institutional clients as well. Admitting strong and growing mid and largecap stocks into the CANSLIM universe does not mean that it must shatter into millions of pieces, anymore than admitting that the first day may have been more than 24 hours spells the end of Christianity. _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 15 Jun 1998 18:50:45 -0700 (PDT) From: dbphoenix Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] The NAZ - Weekly/Daily <> Russell 2000. It's a smallcap index. What the Nasdaq used to be. It is designed to mirror the smallcap universe. - --Db _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 15 Jun 1998 18:15:32 -0700 (PDT) From: dbphoenix Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Technical Analysis--Tom <> Me, no. Others, maybe. I was absent from the "noise" thread as it didn't interest me. Personally, I find you smart, knowledgeable, experienced, helpful, occasionally arrogant, sometimes intolerant, with a tendency to bristle when someone challenges you. But you rarely stray beyond CANSLIM, which is more than I can say for many posts, mine included. - --Db _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 15 Jun 1998 18:56:26 -0700 (PDT) From: dbphoenix Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] JW's continuing snide comments (was Counting from the low) <> I don't know how "fortunate" it is. Any one of the 800 is more than welcome to jump in anytime. Nothing discourages questions more than letting them just lie there, rotting and putrescent (there's that Word Mastery Made Simple again), lonely and unloved. Unanswered questions lead to unasked questions. - --Db _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 15 Jun 1998 21:57:36 -0400 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] World Market Charts @ Yahoo! Yippee! Thanks, Frank Tom W - -----Original Message----- From: Frank V. Wolynski To: canslim@mail.xmission.com Date: Monday, June 15, 1998 8:27 PM Subject: [CANSLIM] World Market Charts @ Yahoo! Yippee! >For the first time in a couple of months I clicked on a few Indexes from >the World Markets page at Yahoo. To my surprise a chart came up! I've never >before gotten a chart from any of the Foreign Index links. > >So I tried a few more, and more came up! > - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 15 Jun 1998 21:59:21 -0400 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Mkt "noise" - JW don't read (was William J. O'Neil talks stocks) Sorry, Frank, but judging by your posts, you passed the "less dumb" level quite some time ago. Tom W - -----Original Message----- From: Frank V. Wolynski To: canslim@lists.xmission.com ; canslim@lists.xmission.com Date: Monday, June 15, 1998 8:36 PM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Mkt "noise" - JW don't read (was William J. O'Neil talks stocks) >I don't know about the smart part, but less dumb than others I can handle. > >Frank Wolynski > > - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 15 Jun 1998 22:09:39 -0400 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] -- Not Canslim - Nikkei Nikkei getting a little bounce now, only off half a percent. Meantime the yen is strong against the dollar, as is the German mark, the pound, the Swiss franc, and the French franc is flat. I am not so much concerned any longer at where Japan goes, till they make fundamental changes. Until then, I suspect they will be mostly a disruptive effect, rather than a leadership influence. I am more concerned at the "leadership vacuum". So far, Hong Kong, China, Australia/New Zealand, and other potential stabilizing and/or leadership economic centers are unable to stabalize themselves, much less establish leadership. Tom W - -----Original Message----- From: Frank V. Wolynski To: canslim@mail.xmission.com Date: Monday, June 15, 1998 9:16 PM Subject: [CANSLIM] -- Not Canslim - Nikkei >Mikkei 225 down 1% during first 5 minutes of trading. >Complete story below: > >http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980615/tokyo_stoc_3.html > >Regards, >Frank Wolynski > - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 15 Jun 1998 22:13:51 -0400 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Technical Analysis Funny, would have sworn my comment was directed at db? Tom W - -----Original Message----- From: Jeffry White <"postwhit@sover.net"@sover.net> To: canslim@mail.xmission.com Date: Monday, June 15, 1998 9:16 PM Subject: [CANSLIM] Technical Analysis >> >> db, >> Isn't "market psychology and sociology" the very kind of noise you and >> several others criticized me for posting and polluting this group >> with, as just more "media type" noise?? >> >> Tom W >> > >Tom, in case you hadn't noticed, I've been trying to ignore your >taunting, and attempts at sarcasm in posts, of late. > >But, I must note that you really seem to like the fight. Don't you? > >Now, back to a very good CANSLIM "M" question posed by Db. Sorry I >didn't finish it this evening, Db. > >Jeffry > >- > - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 15 Jun 1998 22:21:24 -0400 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Technical Analysis--Tom thank you Tom W - -----Original Message----- From: dbphoenix To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Date: Monday, June 15, 1998 9:49 PM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Technical Analysis--Tom ><Isn't "market psychology and sociology" the very kind of noise you and >several others criticized me for posting and polluting this group >with, as just more "media type" noise?? > >Tom W>> > >Me, no. Others, maybe. I was absent from the "noise" thread as it >didn't interest me. Personally, I find you smart, knowledgeable, >experienced, helpful, occasionally arrogant, sometimes intolerant, >with a tendency to bristle when someone challenges you. But you >rarely stray beyond CANSLIM, which is more than I can say for many >posts, mine included. > >--Db > - - ------------------------------ End of canslim-digest V2 #285 ***************************** To unsubscribe to canslim-digest, send an email to "majordomo@xmission.com" with "unsubscribe canslim-digest" in the body of the message. For information on digests or retrieving files and old messages send "help" to the same address. Do not use quotes in your message.