From: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com (canslim-digest) To: canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Subject: canslim-digest V2 #2949 Reply-To: canslim Sender: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Errors-To: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Precedence: bulk Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable X-No-Archive: yes canslim-digest Saturday, September 21 2002 Volume 02 : Number 2949 In this issue: Re: [CANSLIM] New Member Re: [CANSLIM] COCO [CANSLIM] Worley's Weekend Weeview ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Date: Fri, 20 Sep 2002 21:48:06 -0400 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] New Member This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------=_NextPart_000_003F_01C260EF.675E78D0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Hi Elmer, and welcome to the group. You may be surprised just how much = you can contribute, as those new to CANSLIM and/or investing often ask = the best questions, and often many questions that lurkers would like = asked but are reluctant to do so. As a teacher, you already know the importance of having a lesson plan, = sticking to it, and evaluating it later to see if it is fully serving = its purpose. Same with investing. You already took the first step simply = by wanting to learn how to invest on your own. Reading and studying = HTMMIS is an important part of the process of learning how to do that = successfully. Best of luck, don't hesitate to ask questions. You may also want to do = some browsing in the archives, there is a wealth of material there. - ----- Original Message -----=20 From: Sally5455@aol.com=20 To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20 Sent: Friday, September 20, 2002 10:33 AM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] New Member Forgot my name Elmer n a message dated 9/20/2002 9:31:43 AM Central Daylight Time, = Sally5455@aol.com writes: Hello, I am about to retire from teaching and have an interest in = learning how to invest on my own. I've read HTMMIS at least 3 times and = have been collecting articles from Investors.com. I have no experience = so I'll not be able to contribute anything but my willingness to learn. Does anyone know a money manager that uses the CAN SLIM approach to = manage their client's money? - ------=_NextPart_000_003F_01C260EF.675E78D0 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
Hi Elmer, and welcome to the group. You may be = surprised=20 just how much you can contribute, as those new to CANSLIM and/or = investing often=20 ask the best questions, and often many questions that lurkers would like = asked=20 but are reluctant to do so.
 
As a teacher, you already know the importance of = having a=20 lesson plan, sticking to it, and evaluating it later to see if it is = fully=20 serving its purpose. Same with investing. You already took the first = step simply=20 by wanting to learn how to invest on your own. Reading and studying = HTMMIS is an=20 important part of the process of learning how to do that=20 successfully.
 
Best of luck, don't hesitate to ask questions. = You may=20 also want to do some browsing in the archives, there is a wealth of = material=20 there.
 
----- Original Message -----=20
From: Sally5455@aol.com=20
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=
Sent: Friday, September 20, 2002 10:33 AM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] New Member

Forgot my name
Elmer

n a message dated = 9/20/2002=20 9:31:43 AM Central Daylight Time, Sally5455@aol.com = writes:


Hello, I am about to retire from teaching and have an = interest in=20 learning how to invest on my own. I've read HTMMIS at least 3 times = and have=20 been collecting articles from Investors.com. I have no experience so = I'll not=20 be able to contribute anything but my willingness to = learn.

Does anyone=20 know a money manager that uses the CAN SLIM approach to manage their = client's=20 money?


 - ------=_NextPart_000_003F_01C260EF.675E78D0-- - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 20 Sep 2002 22:20:06 -0400 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] COCO Mike, to me it just looks like a LLUR that is basing out for a few weeks, considering the poor market and overall bearish trends, just to hold price is encouraging. Four weeks ago it averaged for the week nearly twice ADV. Three weeks ago it averaged ADV. Past two weeks, it did well under ADV and held price. All I take from that is sellers are drying up. Of course, till the buyers have a reason to return in volume, it's also not likely to move higher. - ----- Original Message ----- From: To: Sent: Friday, September 20, 2002 3:07 PM Subject: [CANSLIM] COCO Looking at a weekly chart, over the last few weeks it looks like the price /volume action is wedging. Does this mean that it could be a shorting candidate? Mike Niemotka , PE Sr. Principal Engineer Baxter Healthcare Corporation Route 120 & Wilson Road Round Lake, IL 60073 Tel (847) 270-4075 Fax (847) 270-4525 michael_niemotka@baxter.com - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Sat, 21 Sep 2002 09:11:16 -0400 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] Worley's Weekend Weeview This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------=_NextPart_000_0027_01C2614E.D75BDBA0 Content-Type: multipart/alternative; boundary="----=_NextPart_001_0028_01C2614E.D75BDBA0" - ------=_NextPart_001_0028_01C2614E.D75BDBA0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable ECONOMICS The Treasury Secretary believes the economy is recovering, pointing out = that interest rates at 40 year record lows are boosting the housing and = auto industry. Commerce Dept reports that US retail sales jumped 0.8% in = August, ignoring the fact that in June and July this figure grew 1.4% = and 1.1% respectively. So while there is growth, the rate is slowing, = and the trend is down on the very element that made the recession so = mild and short. And business spending is not picking up as expected, = despite a rise in capital spending in Q2. And the Administration is = sticking to the 5.7% unemployment rate previously reported.=20 A war with Iraq is expected to cost the USA between $100 and 200 = billion, roughly 1-2% of the GDP. But the Treasury Secretary encourages = us that we taxpayers may not need to spend this much "Importantly, the = president hasn't said we're going to war. He said he's determined that = there's going to be a regime change and so we'll see how this unfolds."=20 Of course, what's a few hundred billion more when we are already back = into deficit spending?? And we can also throw in a hundred billion or so = for the bailout of various Latin American countries already bankrupt or = nearly so. Who cares if it will do nothing to fix the corruption that = caused their problems in the first place? Through 11 months of this govt = fiscal year, we already overspent the govt income by $255 billion. And = less than two weeks from the start of the new fiscal year, Congress has = yet to pass a budget for 2003. I was in govt service when the USA = changed its fiscal year from ending June to ending September. Why the = change? Congress kept complaining that there was not enough time to = produce a complete budget, and they had to rush to get it done before = summer recess. Their excuse now? They are back from summer recess and = haven't had enough time for all their meetings and hearings. I'll bet if = their paychecks stopped on Sep 30, and only resumed (and not = retroactively) once the budget was completely done, then we might = actually have an approved budget on Oct 1 each year. Industrial production overall was reported on Tuesday as well below = expectations, and a negative number to boot (not that takes much these = days) completely offsetting the brief rally on news that Iraq agreed to = an unconditional surrender, oops, I mean inspection for WMD (with many = conditions to be announced). For August, the production was down 0.3% = (expectations were for a rise of 0.2%) running at 76% of capacity, which = was down 0.2% from July. The unexpected drop is blamed on auto = manufacturers (production of cars and parts down 1.4%) as they clear out = 2002 models (gee, and the economists could not expect that and factor it = into their expectations?? Isn't that, like, an annual event or = something?). This was the first decline recorded in industrial = production since Dec '01. Of course, they still have to explain the 0.5% = drop in consumer goods production, and the 0.4% drop in business = equipment production (also fell in July). Must be my old age, and short = term memory loss, but I would have sworn these were the very things the = Treasury Secretary, and economists, were pointing to as what would = slowly take us out of recession. Even manufacturing production fell = 0.1%, and durable goods production was flat, both also the worst since = Dec '01. Trade gap fell in July more than expected due to strong growth in = exports (fifth straight month, highest since June 2001 - credit to the = weakening dollar). Totaled $34.5 billion vs 37.16 in June and = expectations of a slight drop to 37 billion. Imports fell for the first = time in six months, a possible signal of weakening consumer demand, but = most likely much more a result of the heavy importing done over prior = months due to worries of a longshoremen's union threatened strike. Both overall and core CPI rates rose 0.3% in August, each 0.1% higher = than expected and up slightly from July. Apparel prices and cost of = energy were the two big contributors. Housing starts for new homes fell to 1.609 million units in August, down = from 1.645 million units in July (which was also revised downward) and = well under expectations of 1.674 million units. Equally of concern, = Building Permits also fell 2.5% to 1.669 million units from 1.712 = million units (forecast was for a small rise to 1.674 million units). = Last time starts declined for three months straight was mid year 2000. = Single family homes were down 4.4% while multifamily units were up 8.2%. = Biggest rise was over 9% in the Northeast, biggest fall was the Midwest = at nearly 19%. Initial jobless claims fell in the latest week to 424K, but still = exceeded expectations of 414K. The 4 week moving average rose again, to = 418,500. Continuing claims rose 71,000, biggest increase since March. - -------------------------------------------------------------------------= - ------- JAPAN Still the # 2 economy in the world, Japan continues to ride the back of = the USA economy, hoping for our economic recovery to increase their = exports (and our trade deficits) and pull them out of deflation and = recession. In the latest two moves, first the govt plans to initiate a = buyback of stock from their banks in order to give the banks more = liquidity to clean up the hundreds of billions of dollars worth of bad = loans. Of course, where does the Japanese govt get the cash? From = selling govt bonds. And their deficit spending and national debt is = already one of the worst globally. And for the first time in history, = the latest monthly sale of JGB failed to be fully subscribed. The govt = was not concerned, they will still get the money, because the banks and = broker dealers doing the sale have to buy up the over $3 billion left = over. Then again, I never did understand why anyone wanted a JGB with a = 1.2% yield. There is something seriously wrong with this picture, seems = more like a shell game to me. And the US economic recovery is Japan's = last gasp chance to avoid massive financial collapse and painful = restructuring (and they are very pain averse when it comes to reform). - -------------------------------------------------------------------------= - ------- "M" Basically, it's mighty ugly, and not getting better. Looking more and = more like we will retest the July 24 lows, and paint a double bottom on = most indexes by early October. With forward looking forecasts from = corporations becoming more bearish lately, a recovery in corp profits in = Q4 looks less likely. No one (but me) apparently thinks the Feds will = cut rates next week, but more economists are starting to expect a cut = before end of year. - -------------------------------------------------------------------------= - ------- WORLEY'S WATCHLIST WANNABES=20 This list is in no way intended to recommend any stocks to the group. It = is a part of my regular personal assessment of the health of CANSLIM's = "M" and, as the name implies, only intended to identify some stocks with = constructive chart patterns that may be worth WATCHING and learning from = (and of course doing your own due diligence). I am employed in = Operations by a US Broker Dealer, however everything presented by me is = strictly my own ideas and in no way should be taken to reflect the views = or opinions of my employer. I typically list stocks with both RS and EPS ranking of 80 or better, = and try to exclude stocks undergoing any merger / acquisition / buyout = scenario. I look at all charts that meet this general RS/EPS criteria, = focusing on ones at or close to a new 12 month high. I consider all = industry groups and prices, even those I will not consider for my = personal investing. I no longer will actively consider earnings forecast = for this year and next due the confusing data presented by DGO. I do no = due diligence, that is your responsibility. I will note any CANSLIM = patterns I see, such as c&h, double (or triple) bottoms, or flat bases = (shown as Bx where "x" is the # of weeks, IMO). I will also note LLUR = (Lower Left Upper Right) even though it is not exactly a CANSLIM = pattern. Rarely are any of these stocks of interest to me for my = personal investing due size, price or industry group. I will note any = stocks in which I have a current personal financial interest. The population of stocks I am reviewing this weekend appears stable, and = continues to be dominated by banks and other financial institutions. BYD - high handle CCDC - nano cap, under $12 COCO - B3, may be resuming its LLUR COH - LLUR that turned into a c&h, volume declining ERES - was a smooth LLUR, more volatile now that it has been = "discovered" ERIE - B7 INVN - fell back this week, but still looks to me like an early stage = LLUR MBFI - B5 MWRK - 2nd handle on the cup? OSIS - 1st b/o from the c&h failed PDCO - weak double bottom PETM - another LLUR that turned into a c&h, this time with a high handle PORT - B8 RINO - c&h RMCI - low volume b/o below the high, doing a 2:1 split TTWO - c&h UCFC - saucer?? WCNX - deep c&h WGBC - c&h Happy Hunting, and good luck Tom Worley stkguru@bellsouth.net AIM: TexWorley - ------=_NextPart_001_0028_01C2614E.D75BDBA0 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
ECONOMICS
The Treasury Secretary believes the economy is = recovering,=20 pointing out that interest rates at 40 year record lows are boosting the = housing=20 and auto industry. Commerce Dept reports that US retail sales jumped = 0.8% in=20 August, ignoring the fact that in June and July this figure grew 1.4% = and 1.1%=20 respectively. So while there is growth, the rate is slowing, and the = trend is=20 down on the very element that made the recession so mild and short. And = business=20 spending is not picking up as expected, despite a rise in capital = spending in=20 Q2. And the Administration is sticking to the 5.7% unemployment rate = previously=20 reported.
 
A war with Iraq is expected to cost the USA = between $100=20 and 200 billion, roughly 1-2% of the GDP.  But the Treasury = Secretary=20 encourages us that we taxpayers may not need to spend this much = "Importantly, the president hasn't said we're = going to=20 war. He said he's determined that there's going to be a regime change = and so=20 we'll see how this unfolds."
 
Of course, what's a few hundred billion more = when we are=20 already back into deficit spending?? And we can also throw in a hundred = billion=20 or so for the bailout of various Latin American countries already = bankrupt or=20 nearly so. Who cares if it will do nothing to fix the corruption that = caused=20 their problems in the first place? Through 11 months of this govt fiscal = year,=20 we already overspent the govt income by $255 billion. And less than two = weeks=20 from the start of the new fiscal year, Congress has yet to pass a budget = for=20 2003. I was in govt service when the USA changed its fiscal year from = ending=20 June to ending September. Why the change? Congress kept complaining that = there=20 was not enough time to produce a complete budget, and they had to rush = to get it=20 done before summer recess. Their excuse now? They are back from summer = recess=20 and haven't had enough time for all their meetings and hearings. I'll = bet if=20 their paychecks stopped on Sep 30, and only resumed (and not = retroactively) once=20 the budget was completely done, then we might actually have an approved = budget=20 on Oct 1 each year.
 
Industrial production overall was reported = on Tuesday=20 as well below expectations, and a negative number to boot (not that = takes much=20 these days) completely offsetting the brief rally on news that Iraq = agreed to an=20 unconditional surrender, oops, I mean inspection for WMD (with many = conditions=20 to be announced). For August, the production was down 0.3% (expectations = were=20 for a rise of 0.2%) running at 76% of capacity, which was down 0.2% from = July.=20 The unexpected drop is blamed on auto manufacturers (production of cars = and=20 parts down 1.4%) as they clear out 2002 models (gee, and the economists = could=20 not expect that and factor it into their expectations?? Isn't that, = like, an=20 annual event or something?). This was the first decline recorded in = industrial=20 production since Dec '01. Of course, they still have to explain the 0.5% = drop in=20 consumer goods production, and the 0.4% drop in business equipment = production=20 (also fell in July). Must be my old age, and short term memory loss, but = I would=20 have sworn these were the very things the Treasury Secretary, and = economists,=20 were pointing to as what would slowly take us out of recession. Even=20 manufacturing production fell 0.1%, and durable goods production was = flat, both=20 also the worst since Dec '01.
 
Trade gap fell in July more than expected due to = strong=20 growth in exports (fifth straight month, highest since June 2001 - = credit=20 to the weakening dollar). Totaled $34.5 billion vs 37.16 in June and=20 expectations of a slight drop to 37 billion. Imports fell for the first = time in=20 six months, a possible signal of weakening consumer demand, but most = likely much=20 more a result of the heavy importing done over prior months due to = worries of a=20 longshoremen's union threatened strike.
 
Both overall and core CPI rates rose 0.3% in = August, each=20 0.1% higher than expected and up slightly from July. Apparel prices and = cost of=20 energy were the two big contributors.
 
Housing starts for new homes fell to 1.609 = million units=20 in August, down from 1.645 million units in July (which was also revised = downward) and well under expectations of 1.674 million units. Equally of = concern, Building Permits also fell 2.5% to 1.669 million units from = 1.712=20 million units (forecast was for a small rise to 1.674 million units). = Last time=20 starts declined for three months straight was mid year 2000. Single = family homes=20 were down 4.4% while multifamily units were up 8.2%. Biggest rise was = over 9% in=20 the Northeast, biggest fall was the Midwest at nearly 19%.
 
Initial jobless claims fell in the latest week = to 424K,=20 but still exceeded expectations of 414K. The 4 week moving average rose = again,=20 to 418,500. Continuing claims rose 71,000, biggest increase since = March.
JAPAN
Still the # 2 economy in the world, Japan continues to ride the = back of the=20 USA economy, hoping for our economic recovery to increase their exports = (and our=20 trade deficits) and pull them out of deflation and recession. In the = latest two=20 moves, first the govt plans to initiate a buyback of stock from their = banks in=20 order to give the banks more liquidity to clean up the hundreds of = billions of=20 dollars worth of bad loans. Of course, where does the Japanese govt get = the=20 cash? From selling govt bonds. And their deficit spending and national = debt is=20 already one of the worst globally. And for the first time in history, = the latest=20 monthly sale of JGB failed to be fully subscribed. The govt was not = concerned,=20 they will still get the money, because the banks and broker dealers = doing the=20 sale have to buy up the over $3 billion left over. Then again, I never = did=20 understand why anyone wanted a JGB with a 1.2% yield. There is something = seriously wrong with this picture, seems more like a shell game to me. = And the=20 US economic recovery is Japan's last gasp chance to avoid massive = financial=20 collapse and painful restructuring (and they are very pain averse when = it comes=20 to reform).
"M"
Basically, it's mighty ugly, and not getting better. Looking more = and more=20 like we will retest the July 24 lows, and paint a double bottom on most = indexes=20 by early October. With forward looking forecasts from corporations = becoming more=20 bearish lately, a recovery in corp profits in Q4 looks less likely. No = one (but=20 me) apparently thinks the Feds will cut rates next week, but more = economists are=20 starting to expect a cut before end of year.
WORLEY'S WATCHLIST = WANNABES
This list is in no way intended to recommend any = stocks to=20 the group. It is a part of my regular personal assessment of the health = of=20 CANSLIM's "M" and, as the name implies, only intended to identify some = stocks=20 with constructive chart patterns that may be worth WATCHING and learning from (and of = course doing=20 your own due diligence). I am employed = in=20 Operations by a US Broker Dealer, however everything presented by me is = strictly=20 my own ideas and in no way should be taken to reflect the views or = opinions of=20 my employer.
 
I typically list stocks with both RS and EPS = ranking of 80=20 or better, and try to exclude stocks undergoing any merger / acquisition = /=20 buyout scenario. I look at all charts that meet = this general RS/EPS=20 criteria, focusing on ones at or close to a new 12 month high. I = consider all=20 industry groups and prices, even those I will not consider for my = personal=20 investing. I no longer will actively consider earnings = forecast=20 for this year and next due the confusing data presented by DGO. I do no due diligence, that is your = responsibility. I will=20 note any CANSLIM patterns I see, such as c&h, double (or triple) = bottoms, or=20 flat bases (shown as Bx where "x" is the # of weeks, IMO). I will also = note LLUR=20 (Lower Left Upper Right) even though it is not exactly a CANSLIM = pattern. Rarely=20 are any of these stocks of interest to me for my personal investing due = size,=20 price or industry group. I will note any stocks in which I have a = current=20 personal financial interest.
 
The population of stocks I am reviewing this = weekend=20 appears stable, and continues to be dominated by banks and other = financial=20 institutions.
 
BYD - high handle
CCDC - nano cap, under $12
COCO - B3, may be resuming its LLUR
COH - LLUR that turned into a c&h, volume=20 declining
ERES - was a smooth LLUR, more volatile now that = it has=20 been "discovered"
ERIE - B7
INVN - fell back this week, but still looks to = me like an=20 early stage LLUR
MBFI - B5
MWRK - 2nd handle on the cup?
OSIS - 1st b/o from the c&h = failed
PDCO - weak double bottom
PETM - another LLUR that turned into a c&h, = this time=20 with a high handle
PORT - B8
RINO - c&h
RMCI - low volume b/o below the high, doing a = 2:1=20 split
TTWO - c&h
UCFC - saucer??
WCNX - deep c&h
WGBC - c&h
 
Happy Hunting, and good = luck
 
3D""
Tom Worley
stkguru@bellsouth.net
AIM: = TexWorley
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