From: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com (canslim-digest) To: canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Subject: canslim-digest V2 #300 Reply-To: canslim Sender: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Errors-To: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Precedence: bulk X-No-Archive: yes canslim-digest Wednesday, June 24 1998 Volume 02 : Number 300 In this issue: [CANSLIM] Buy Signal Re: [CANSLIM] FINL [CANSLIM] OBV/MF Re: [CANSLIM] FINL--TA, Connie, Mary, etc. Re: [CANSLIM] OBV/MF [CANSLIM] Re: WSHI [was CANSLIM] OBV/MF [Connie]) Re: [CANSLIM] OBV/MF Re: [CANSLIM] ROMC Re: [CANSLIM] FINL--TA, Connie, Mary, etc. Re: [CANSLIM] FINL--TA, Connie, Mary, etc. Re: [CANSLIM] FINL--TA, Connie, Mary, etc. [CANSLIM] Earnings 101 RE: [CANSLIM] ROMC Re: [CANSLIM] CANSLIM] Groups:Comp Software and Comp Services Re: [CANSLIM] RE: Quotes Plus 2 downloading for you today? [CANSLIM] FINL Re: [CANSLIM] Earnings 101 Re: [CANSLIM] Buy Signal Re: [CANSLIM] Buy Signal [CANSLIM] Re: Dang! [CANSLIM] FINL Re: [CANSLIM] OBV/MF [CANSLIM] New Records [CANSLIM] WSHI--TA, OBV etc. Re: [CANSLIM] FINL Re: [CANSLIM] Re: Dang! [CANSLIM] Dang! -- Mary [CANSLIM] Dang! - Frank [CANSLIM] MWD Re: [CANSLIM] Re: Dang! Re: [CANSLIM] FINL--TA, Connie, Mary, etc. Re: [CANSLIM] MWD [CANSLIM] OBV: A Little Clarification If You Care Re: [CANSLIM] FINL Re: [CANSLIM] NRVH Insider Selling ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Date: Wed, 24 Jun 1998 19:25:33 -0400 From: Jeffry White <"postwhit@sover.net"@sover.net> Subject: [CANSLIM] Buy Signal 1% price increase on volume greater than the prior day's trade in the indices 3-10 day's from a low after the market has turned downward over the short, intermediate to long term. Pay attention to the A/D line in the indices as the rally occurs.Look for sentiment to be roughly 35-40% Bulls, 35-40% Bears. Watch for Puts/Calls ratio to near 52 week bullish marks. Some here would suggest that "W's and MA's" are helpful, but I'm not finished considering that, yet. Some also would suggest that two follow through day windows may exist, one from a low, and one after a rally from the lows has already begun. I think that's a misreading of pages 59-60 of HTMMIS, but I've not posted my explanation. I use the low only, and count 3-10 days out. Hope that is sufficient, Patrick. Jeffry - - ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 24 Jun 1998 16:32:17 -0700 From: Bill Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] FINL Bad timing or what? Athletic footwear retailer The Finish Line (Nasdaq:FINL - news) was stomped for $3 1/8 to $25 3/4 after Raymond James downgraded the firm to "accumulate" from "buy" Connie Mack Rea wrote: > > If you own it, I would hold. If you wish to buy, you might consider it at > 28. > - - ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 24 Jun 1998 19:34:16 -0400 From: Jeffry White <"postwhit@sover.net"@sover.net> Subject: [CANSLIM] OBV/MF > Jeffrey, > > I can't recall you listing ANY stock CS, TA, etc. Just my perspective. Would > love to see the list. I learn vast amounts simply through researching stocks > listed here, etc. Would love to review your watch list. > > If you have posted it, forgive me. I generally try to avoid all the name > calling stuff, belittling, etc so I may of missed it. I lack Connie's ability > to (hell can't think of a word) articulate so let me simply say that I read > every post Connie, Tom, DB, and you send (amoung others). I many times will > do my own research and on rare occassion will buy a stock that I first heard > of here. > > I could boast of the new truck setting in my driveway or the two quarter > horses in my barn but in all honesty the only reason I have them is because > of what I've learned here. > > More stock lists, less bickering. > > Please don't take this personal. I contemplated sending this privately but I > think there are probably several others on this list who feel the same. > > Best wishes > > Greg Take what personally? Not sure what your point is, Greg. Send me a note privately, if you wish. Maybe this is what your after: What I try to contribute here (if it is a contributin, at all) is an objective "M" perspective: WON-style price and volume, sentiment and leadership deterioration and emergence (if I'm really lucky). I'll not be posting watch lists, however, for reasons I previously posted. BTW, how 'bout posting your stock list? TA? Do you have a question? Happy to try my hand at it, if you wish. Not all that great at it, but I'll try. I'll comment on or describe my entry point technique (again), if that's your question. Best wishes, to you. Jeffry - - ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 24 Jun 1998 17:01:37 -0700 (PDT) From: dbphoenix Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] FINL--TA, Connie, Mary, etc. >><>>> Seems we have some disagreement. Connie thinks there's positive divergence, you see negative divergence, and I see little divergence at all. I've uploaded a one-year weekly chart to the site, but we'll have to wait until Jeff is able to transfer the file before we can look at it together. I'd appreciate your help in locating either a positive or negative divergence. - --Db<< ftp://ftp.xmission.com/pub/users/m/mcjathan/canslim/FINL-WK.gif File's now ready and perhaps you or someone can help out here. The two spikes in September and April are volume that didn't follow through. Thus the decline in OBV in both cases. But except for those two spikes, the OBV seems to follow price fairly closely--up when it's up, down when it's down, flat when it's flat. Again I've connected the closing prices from April through June with a dotted line. Can anyone tell me where the divergences are, that is, where the OBV goes up and the price goes down or vice-versa? - --Db _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - - ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 24 Jun 1998 20:03:08 -0400 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] OBV/MF yep, several, and bot them Tom W - -----Original Message----- From: Jeffry White To: canslim@mail.xmission.com Date: Wednesday, June 24, 1998 9:25 AM Subject: [CANSLIM] OBV/MF >Connie Mack wrote: > >> Remember that the OBV/MF stocks are selected on technical criteria. >> What the CS investor ought to look for is that stock that meets CS >> criteria and is further corroborated by OBV/MF. The conjunction of the >> two sets of criteria is a powerful conjunction. >> > > >As I've mentioned before, I have not yet found a CANSLIM stock, at an >appropriate entry point, which demonstrates the divergences you find >bullish using these indicators. > >Anybody out there found one? > >Jeff > >- > - - ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 24 Jun 1998 20:14:15 -0400 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] Re: WSHI [was CANSLIM] OBV/MF [Connie]) Members, A word of caution, please, on WSHI. It is under a buyout by Cognizant Corp since March, and its buyout is for stock, so its performance will be dictated by the performance of Cognizant (CZT) which also happens to look pretty good CANSLIM wise. However, at .3041 shares of CZT for each share of WSHI (.3041*57.56 - today's close - = about 17.375, the close on WSHI) it is already fully valued unless you really want to own CZT. I had it on my watch list and liked what it had to offer, but dropped it because of the buyout. This of course alters the TA approach (one argument in favor of some basic research) and explains why it moved against its divergence in March and April, it was already a buyout, and was then linked to CZT. Tom W - -----Original Message----- From: dbphoenix To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Date: Wednesday, June 24, 1998 9:33 AM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] OBV/MF [Connie] ><strongest and the weakest stock. For the CS investor, he might consider >the strongest and perhaps a stock in the middle of the group. A part of >the theory of this approach is that the strongest stock will make a >correction while the less strong will make an advance. I have seen >stocks that did fit this pattern.>> > >Both CANSLIM and HGS approaches stress looking to the leaders, not the >laggards. Their thrust is that strong stocks by definition will >continue to advance, whereas laggards will not draw the desired demand >to push through overhead supply, group weakness, and whatever factors >caused the weakness in the first place. > ><What the CS investor ought to look for is that stock that meets CS >criteria and is further corroborated by OBV/MF. The conjunction of the >two sets of criteria is a powerful conjunction.>> > >Would appreciate any evidence you have to support this. WSHI, for >example, moved against what its "divergence" would imply in March and >again in April. Since the end of April, of course, it has been >tracking price. > >--Db > > > > > >_________________________________________________________ >DO YOU YAHOO!? >Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com > > >- > - - ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 24 Jun 1998 17:16:37 -0700 (PDT) From: dbphoenix Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] OBV/MF <> I'll bite. What were they? - --Db _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - - ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 24 Jun 1998 20:23:26 -0400 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] ROMC David, Sorry I didn't respond sooner, but don't want to become a "DGO data source". I read the chart (at DGO) as showing a lengthy trading range in the 27-29 level. In the past two weeks, it appears to be trying to establish a new pattern, that of a staircase (short base on short base), however I also note that in the past five weeks, it only broke ADV on four occasions. Even with the sloppy and bearish "M" we have had, that's pretty light. I also note funds already have 28% of the float locked up, however management appears still committed with 34% of the issue. The rest of the CS technical data all look fine to me. As to whether the stock is buyable at 32?? Well, if it does succeed in making a staircase pattern become common, then it would probably work, but too early to tell. If it doesn't, then 32 is well over 10% extended from a high 20s base area. Tom W - -----Original Message----- From: David S. Pinhasik To: canslim@mail.xmission.com Date: Wednesday, June 24, 1998 10:25 AM Subject: [CANSLIM] ROMC > >I am reposting this under a new subject name. > >>ROMC: Has been in a trading channel for couple of months. If it closes >>above 29.87 or 30 and doesn't labor, the trading range would be broken >>to the upside and a new move could get underway. The OBV/MF implies the >>breakout would hold. > > >Is this still buyable at around 32? I am reading it as just about 10% over >the pivot.Without DGO I am finding it hard to determine all the CS elements >easily. Does the volume qualify as a valid CS breakout? >Any help appreciated! > >David > > > > > >- > - - ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 24 Jun 1998 17:39:18 -0700 From: Bill Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] FINL--TA, Connie, Mary, etc. Put on your tri-focals, Db, the chart you have posted shows a declining OBV while the price is going up for the time period in question. :-> Bill-->> dbphoenix wrote: > > > > >>< from > mid April to last Friday! This one is looking for a resting place. > > Bill-->>>> > > Seems we have some disagreement. Connie thinks there's positive > divergence, you see negative divergence, and I see little divergence > at all. I've uploaded a one-year weekly chart to the site, but we'll > have to wait until Jeff is able to transfer the file before we can > look at it together. I'd appreciate your help in locating either a > positive or negative divergence. > > --Db<< > > ftp://ftp.xmission.com/pub/users/m/mcjathan/canslim/FINL-WK.gif > > File's now ready and perhaps you or someone can help out here. The > two spikes in September and April are volume that didn't follow > through. Thus the decline in OBV in both cases. But except for those > two spikes, the OBV seems to follow price fairly closely--up when it's > up, down when it's down, flat when it's flat. > > Again I've connected the closing prices from April through June with a > dotted line. > > Can anyone tell me where the divergences are, that is, where the OBV > goes up and the price goes down or vice-versa? > > --Db > > _________________________________________________________ > DO YOU YAHOO!? > Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com > > - - - ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 24 Jun 1998 17:56:15 -0700 (PDT) From: dbphoenix Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] FINL--TA, Connie, Mary, etc. < Bill-->>>> If you're referring to mid-April to last Friday, the OBV is not declining. It declines from the third week of April to the fourth week of May (as does the price) with a series of lower highs and lower lows. It then shows a higher low the fifth of May and reverses direction, as does price. The next high is higher, as is price, then the next low is lower, as is price. The last two highs are successively higher, as are the closing prices. If you're referring to the fact that the OBV as of last week is lower than it was the third week of April, that really doesn't apply. "The OBV is in a rising trend when each new peak is higher than the previous peak and each new trough is higher than the previous trough. Likewise, the OBV is in a falling trend when each successive peak is lower than the previous peak and each successive trough is lower than the previous trough. When the OBV is moving sideways and is not making successive highs and lows, it is in a doubtful trend." The only reason the OBV is higher in April is because of the volume spike. Volume didn't follow through, so the price fell and so did OBV. If the volume HAD followed through, and the price had fallen, and OBV had not, THEN you'd have a divergence. As it is, there is none, assuming that this is the timeframe you're referring to. - --Db _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - - ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 24 Jun 1998 20:57:50 -0400 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] FINL--TA, Connie, Mary, etc. db Remembering Connie's basic chart setting, and that he uses Big Charts rather than Window on Wall Street, I took a look at the chart you posted as well as went to BigCharts and set up according to Connie's maxim, e.g. one week chart with 3, 7, 10 ema. I think a lot of the "perception" problem may come from using different charting settings at BC, or from using different charting services (we have already had a lot of discussion about how BC measures certain things, and some seem pretty bizarre to me, still I keep using them, can't beat the price). Using Connie's settings, I can see what he is saying. On the OBV, the downward slope of the line is less than the angle of slope of the price (and for that matter all three EMA lines). It's more obvious on the MF, where MF mostly dogs it sideways while the price plummets. I also looked at the Slo Stos, and it's pretty clear to me there as well how it signaled a sell at 30 or so before the drop. I also looked at MACD long as I was there, and could see how the Slo Sto gave a sell signal a day or so earlier than MACD, altho both were at about the same price level. I can also see where a one year chart, vice a 5 day chart, would change this presentation substantially. Wait a minute, I think I lost track of the thread, were we talking about buy or sell signals?? Oh yeah, just divergence between the price and OBV, MF etc. I can see the divergence, but to me would have signaled a bail out time. Connie, your turn (if you haven't already responded by now, I'm still wading thru email). What did I miss? Tom W - -----Original Message----- From: dbphoenix To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Date: Wednesday, June 24, 1998 5:39 PM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] FINL--TA, Connie, Mary, etc. ><mid April to last Friday! This one is looking for a resting place. > >Bill-->>>> > >Seems we have some disagreement. Connie thinks there's positive >divergence, you see negative divergence, and I see little divergence >at all. I've uploaded a one-year weekly chart to the site, but we'll >have to wait until Jeff is able to transfer the file before we can >look at it together. I'd appreciate your help in locating either a >positive or negative divergence. > >--Db > > > > > >_________________________________________________________ >DO YOU YAHOO!? >Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com > > >- > - - ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 24 Jun 1998 21:06:23 -0500 From: "Thomas A. Moulton" Subject: [CANSLIM] Earnings 101 I see various historical earnings reported for companies. They appear in the form of Quarterly EPS as well as Annual EPS. I also see 5 Year Growth Rates, as well as in some cases Year to Year growth rates. Now my question: Since all of these reports are in terms of EPS (ie EARNINGS PER SHARE) should they be scaled for stock splits over the years? For example if XYZ Corp had '95 EPS of $0.50 and 1/1/96 they had a 2:1 split and '96 EPS of $0.50 is that considered a 100% Growth Rate? If you reply please indicate which scale you use to gauge growth EPS or Raw $ Profit from balance sheet. - -- Thomas A. Moulton, W2VY http://www.xanthus.net/w2vy - - ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 24 Jun 1998 18:11:36 -0700 From: Mike Lucero Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] ROMC I believe you can get 20-day average volume from Yahoo. Mike On Wednesday, June 24, 1998 7:28 AM, David S. Pinhasik [SMTP:dsap@shani.net] wrote: > > I am reposting this under a new subject name. > > >ROMC: Has been in a trading channel for couple of months. If it closes > >above 29.87 or 30 and doesn't labor, the trading range would be broken > >to the upside and a new move could get underway. The OBV/MF implies the > >breakout would hold. > > > Is this still buyable at around 32? I am reading it as just about 10% over > the pivot.Without DGO I am finding it hard to determine all the CS elements > easily. Does the volume qualify as a valid CS breakout? > Any help appreciated! > > David > > > > > > > - - ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 24 Jun 1998 15:36:26 -0700 (PDT) From: Tannis Malone Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] CANSLIM] Groups:Comp Software and Comp Services Hi Johan, Since you have trouble getting IBD and are interested in Industry Groups. I'll give you the top 6 "Groups With the Greatest % of Stocks Making New Highs" as reported today- from Tuesday's trading. Auto Mfg-domestic 33% Media-Cable TV 21% Machinery-Const/Mining 18% Retail Major Disc Chains 17% Retail/Whlsle Office Supl 17% Computer Software-internet 15% But: In performance - ie % change. Internet was first, telecomm and internet security showed up, as did mainframes, semiconductors (equip and mfg) What do you make of it? TM - ---Johan Van Houtven wrote: > > DB, > > Looked at the !ID054 and !ID055 indexes. Comp Soft and Comp Serv. > respectively. > > Saw nothing that excited me. Charts might be forming the bottom of a cup. > Holding at the 200DMA. BUT once I go look inside those groups I DO find > quite a number of good looking charts. (emailed you the list.) > > Please clue me in. How could I have known? > > I'd guess that I would have to create my own groups? Maybe this way: take > the groups above, delete all stocks with weak charts and weak fundies. > > > > Johan Van Houtven / CLICK! N.V. > > > > > - > > _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - - ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 24 Jun 1998 18:24:00 -0700 (PDT) From: Tannis Malone Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] RE: Quotes Plus 2 downloading for you today? Mike, Except for the problems today are you satisfied with Quotes Plus (2)? - ---Mike Lucero wrote: > > I wasn't been able to download from Quotes Plus (version 2) last night. Anyone else on the list have the same problem? > > Thanks, > > Mike > > > > - > > _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - - ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 24 Jun 1998 21:16:46 -0400 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] FINL While I've stayed out of much of the discussion on this one (it's not on my watch list, never followed it, just made some quick snapshot comments on it) I would add that Raymond James cut its rating on it today, from buy to accumulate, which may account for much of today's actions. If so, beware of news, its often a flash in the pan, esp where brokerage houses are concerned. When major brokerage houses make ratings changes, it's often first thing in the morning, before the mkt opens, and gives brokers (who are commission compensated) an excuse to call a client and say "Mr Client, we just cut our ratings on ABCD and I would suggest we sell ABCD and use the money to buy WXYZ (or WXY if you are a NYSE fan)". This way the broker makes two commissions and is within the guidelines of his "house analysts". Of course, this initial selling pressure gives other investors, not aware of this downgrade, or playing by technical rules only, an excuse to sell as well, thus adding to the selling pressure. I haven't studied or investigated FINL, so don't know if it represents a buy, hold, sell or short. No advice here. Just a comment on "M" and news as it relates to this stock. May be just one more example of why the brokerage business needs to change from commission based to performance or "management fee" based, even tho that tends to move clients more into house "proprietary" products. Tom W - - ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 24 Jun 1998 18:28:53 -0700 (PDT) From: dbphoenix Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Earnings 101 <> This is all recalculated at the time of the split, along with ADV. Unfortunately, some sites are slower than others in completing the recalculations. If the company in your example earned the same amount of money with twice as many shares, they would have done twice as well. However, '95 eps would be restated as $0.25 - --Db _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - - ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 24 Jun 1998 21:41:15 -0400 From: Ari Lawson Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Buy Signal I read pgs.55+56 of HTMMIS over and over last night.Eiether i just can't follow it yet,or it's a little open for interpratation. Patrick Wahl wrote: > Would someone post to the list or e mail me privately exactly what > O'Neil's rules are for the buy signal? That is, the 1% day, followed > by another in a certain window of time, along with some volume > increase. My books are all in storage for the next few months, so I > don't have the info handy. > > If I am able to code it and plot buy signals over the last year or > two on a chart with my charting software, I'll post the chart. > > TIA. > > - - - ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 24 Jun 1998 21:44:04 -0400 From: Ari Lawson Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Buy Signal Sorry, forgot to mention i don't have time to type it out for you right now,i know i'm not much help.SORRY! Ari - - ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 24 Jun 1998 20:49:55 -0500 (CDT) From: mckeener@ix.netcom.com Subject: [CANSLIM] Re: Dang! Jeffry White, Yes, "Reminiscence of a Stock Operator" is excellent and a plus for any trader/investor. Mary - - ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 24 Jun 1998 20:56:44 -0500 (CDT) From: mckeener@ix.netcom.com Subject: [CANSLIM] FINL Db, Thanks for the explanation. I'm learning. Mary - - ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 24 Jun 1998 21:50:16 -0400 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] OBV/MF From memory alone, I think both of my big winners (EPIQ, EDAC) gave me some short term TA signals, altho I was not using TA that much just then. When I get done with my current testing, I will post somewhere (likely a home page) the full details of all that I have been doing recently and why. So far, selecting stocks for my watch list on CS basis and using my common sense and experience, then applying TA for timing my entry and hold and sell decision making, is helping me. Whether it might help someone else, or would work equally well under different "M" conditions, remains to be seen. I will continue to withhold my watch list, as well as comments on what I am buying and selling, as I have already previously explained, until I am done with testing. After that I will post my watch list. Tom W - -----Original Message----- From: dbphoenix To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Date: Wednesday, June 24, 1998 8:20 PM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] OBV/MF >< >Tom W>> > >I'll bite. What were they? > >--Db > > > > > >_________________________________________________________ >DO YOU YAHOO!? >Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com > > >- > - - ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 24 Jun 1998 21:58:47 -0400 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] New Records Members, For those trying to understand "M", I just want to point out that both the Nasdaq 100 and the S&P 500 both hit new highs. Tells me the big caps are coming back into favor, and a lot of sidelined cash is chasing the mkt. Tom W - - ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 24 Jun 1998 21:07:22 -0500 (CDT) From: mckeener@ix.netcom.com Subject: [CANSLIM] WSHI--TA, OBV etc. Db, Wish I could explain!! Mary - - ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 24 Jun 1998 19:18:11 -0700 From: Bill Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] FINL Tom, how much of this 'advance' information goes to the market makers (MM?) I have noted some large blocks printed on the tape with no effect on the price days before the announcement. Could it be that the MM is preparing to 'feed the kitty' in anticipation of a ratings change? I assume that the large blocks are a negotiated transactions between the beneficial owner and the MM in either/both directions. I need to brush up on Joe Granville's work in the use of OBV as an advance predictor of price action. His work correlates positively with the homily that WON disseminates in reference to volume shrinkage etc. Thanks, Bill-->> Tom Worley wrote: > > While I've stayed out of much of the discussion on this one (it's not > on my watch list, never followed it, just made some quick snapshot > comments on it) I would add that Raymond James cut its rating on it > today, from buy to accumulate, which may account for much of today's > actions. If so, beware of news, its often a flash in the pan, esp > where brokerage houses are concerned. > > When major brokerage houses make ratings changes, it's often first > thing in the morning, before the mkt opens, and gives brokers (who are > commission compensated) an excuse to call a client and say "Mr Client, > we just cut our ratings on ABCD and I would suggest we sell ABCD and > use the money to buy WXYZ (or WXY if you are a NYSE fan)". This way > the broker makes two commissions and is within the guidelines of his > "house analysts". Of course, this initial selling pressure gives other > investors, not aware of this downgrade, or playing by technical rules > only, an excuse to sell as well, thus adding to the selling pressure. > > I haven't studied or investigated FINL, so don't know if it represents > a buy, hold, sell or short. No advice here. Just a comment on "M" and > news as it relates to this stock. > > May be just one more example of why the brokerage business needs to > change from commission based to performance or "management fee" based, > even tho that tends to move clients more into house "proprietary" > products. > > Tom W > > - - - ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 24 Jun 1998 22:21:10 -0400 From: "Frank V. Wolynski" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Re: Dang! Either of you two know the authors name? Thanks, Frank Wolynski At 20:49 6/24/98 -0500, you wrote: >Jeffry White, > >Yes, "Reminiscence of a Stock Operator" is excellent and a plus >for any trader/investor. > >Mary > - - ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 24 Jun 1998 22:22:57 -0400 From: Jeffry White <"postwhit@sover.net"@sover.net> Subject: [CANSLIM] Dang! -- Mary > Jeffry White, > > Yes, "Reminiscence of a Stock Operator" is excellent and a plus > for any trader/investor. > > Mary Snipped, to avoid too much typing: "In speculation when the market goes against you you hope that every day will be the last day -- and you lose more than you should had you not listened to hope... And when the market goes your way you become fearful that the next day will take away your profit, and you get out -- too soon. Fear keeps you from making as much money as you ought to. The successful trader has to fight these two deep-seated instincts. He has to reserve what you might call his natural impulses. Instead of hoping he must fear; instead of fearing he must hope. He must fear that his loss may develop into a much bigger loss, and hope that his profit may become a big profit." - - ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 24 Jun 1998 22:38:52 -0400 From: Jeffry White <"postwhit@sover.net"@sover.net> Subject: [CANSLIM] Dang! - Frank > Either of you two know the authors name? > Thanks, > Frank Wolynski http://franchise.fantasticshopping.com/w3fant1/cgi-bin/nph-tame/traders-mainstore/detail.tam?oldpage=result%2Etam&item%2Ectx=99%2DS Enjoy it, Frank. - - ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 24 Jun 1998 20:02:27 -0800 From: "Patrick Wahl" Subject: [CANSLIM] MWD I don't have numbers on this one, but almost all of the stocks on my watchlist are CANSLIM, so its probably good, anyway, Morgan Stanley (MWD) seemed to breakout today. - - ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 24 Jun 1998 20:08:11 -0800 From: "Patrick Wahl" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Re: Dang! > Date: Wed, 24 Jun 1998 22:21:10 -0400 > To: canslim@lists.xmission.com > From: "Frank V. Wolynski" > Either of you two know the authors name? Edwin Lefevre, and I'll third it, very good book. - - ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 24 Jun 1998 18:19:31 -0700 (PDT) From: dbphoenix Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] FINL--TA, Connie, Mary, etc. <> But that's part of the problem. If you squeeze any indicator that's designed to follow price or price and volume into a frame that's much smaller than the price-volume plot, you're going to flatten it, thus creating "divergences" where none exist. If you took the price plot of practically any volatile stock and flattened it into a one or two-inch frame, it would look as though it was in a long, flat base. Making an investment decision based on the use of OBV and "MF", particularly as graphed by bigcharts, even if used only as an initial screen, is somewhat akin to buying a car because it's red rather than because it's built well, and discovering over time that you have a remarkably well-built car. The color had nothing to do with it. You were just lucky. This is not to suggest that everyone should run out and buy a charting program. However, it is important to remember the limitations of whatever medium you're using. If whatever program or feature one is using is not designed for a particular task, one can't expect it to perform that task particularly well. Compare, for example, the charts that DG provides with those that ValueLine provides. Or the charts that DG provides with those provided by IBD. Does this mean that IBD charts are useless? Of course not. As a spur to further investigation, they're as good as anything else. But I can't see laying down ten or twenty thousand dollars using those tiny little charts as my only graphic source. <> However, I plotted the MF as well and came up with the same result. In fact, it follows the price even more closely than the OBV. <> This may very well be, but remember that these two indicators are calculated in a completely different way than OBV and MF. <> That's why I provided both. - --Db _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - - ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 24 Jun 1998 23:16:14 -0400 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] MWD Doesn't have the earnings growth necessary. Forecast is for earnings increase of 7% and 9% for the current and next year. And if the securities business slows down, and it could well, in this time frame, then they will be struggling to just meet or beat the prior year results. Tom W - -----Original Message----- From: Patrick Wahl To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Date: Wednesday, June 24, 1998 11:01 PM Subject: [CANSLIM] MWD I don't have numbers on this one, but almost all of the stocks on my watchlist are CANSLIM, so its probably good, anyway, Morgan Stanley (MWD) seemed to breakout today. - - - - ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 24 Jun 1998 20:21:27 -0700 (PDT) From: dbphoenix Subject: [CANSLIM] OBV: A Little Clarification If You Care Before we start playing the "Yes,But" game, I must point out that I really don't have time to create and upload chart after chart. The charts I've already uploaded make my point. Or at least the point I've been trying to make. Anyone who wants to play Yes,But will have to do so without me. There is, however, one last (I hope) point I want to make, which is that while some OBV "divergences" are in the eye of the beholder, others are as plain as can be if you know what to look for. And that's what it all comes down to--"if you know what to look for". In order to understand what OBV--or any indicator--can do for you, you must have at least a vague notion of how it's calculated. Because of the way it's calculated, OBV is very good at showing you how price and volume vary together. Sometimes this creates a divergence which can work in your favor. For example, let's say that price has risen on high volume, then begins to fall on low volume. Under the right conditions, OBV will rise then flatten while the price plot descends. This is a divergence. This is telling you that price is falling on low volume (Of course you could just look at the volume plot and figure that out for yourself, but OBV can do it for you if for some reason you don't want to look at the volume). Knowing this can give you a preliminary signal that this price drop is not "serious", at least for now, and may reverse itself at some point relatively soon. So, heads up. (Or volume may pick up as the price falls, in which case OBV will fall as well.) On the other hand, if price is falling on high volume, OBV will fall and track the price plot or even fall below it, "leading" it down. Again, you can figure this out quite easily just by looking at the volume plot, but this is how OBV will behave. This, however, is not a divergence. OBV may also give a divergence signal if price is rising on low volume. Under normal conditions, OBV will not rise along with it. It will either decline or flatten, depending on what the closes are. Again, this is a legitimate divergence and one which you can see quite easily by looking at the volume plot. Therefore, OBV does diverge from price and it does provide signals which warrant your attention. They do, however, tend to be short-lived (prices will not rise or fall forever on low volume). But in order to use OBV properly, it helps to be able to see it, which is the problem using online charts which flatten it into a tiny frame. It also helps to remember that divergences are very much dependent on volume, and to use OBV or any accumulation-distribution indicator such as Williams' or any of Chaiken's is to make important decisions on what can easily be misleading or downright inaccurate information. I strongly suggest to anyone, particularly novices, to learn how to interpret price and volume without the use of any indicators at all. Relying too heavily on indicators too early may lead you to make some very expensive mistakes. Indicators are called indicators because that's what they do--indicate. They don't tell you what to do. Only your intelligence, experience and skill can do that. Indicators should tell you little more than what you already know. - --Db _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - - ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 25 Jun 1998 00:18:09 -0400 From: Ari Lawson Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] FINL Glad i posted it first.Thanks!Especially to Tom Worley! Thanks Ari - - ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 24 Jun 1998 23:17:08 -0500 From: Dave Cameron Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] NRVH Insider Selling Al French wrote (on Sunday June 21): > > National Recreational Vehicle Holdings has been mentioned several times > by members of the CS list. Two NRVH directors have been selling > heavily. > > See http://biz.yahoo.com/t/n/nrvh.html > Al, thanks again for pointing this out. This was a good observation, but I want to mention that I think it is worth pointing out that in this case (so far), the insider trading is irrelevant. The stock has advanced 10% in the last three days. Tom Worley indicated that insider trading is often just exercising options and immediately selling. Could be the case. Regardless, this stock still behaves like a successful CANSLIM stock. Dave Cameron > Al French > > - - - ------------------------------ End of canslim-digest V2 #300 ***************************** To unsubscribe to canslim-digest, send an email to "majordomo@xmission.com" with "unsubscribe canslim-digest" in the body of the message. For information on digests or retrieving files and old messages send "help" to the same address. Do not use quotes in your message.