From: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com (canslim-digest) To: canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Subject: canslim-digest V2 #313 Reply-To: canslim Sender: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Errors-To: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Precedence: bulk X-No-Archive: yes canslim-digest Thursday, July 2 1998 Volume 02 : Number 313 In this issue: Re: [CANSLIM] THRX [CANSLIM] fed leaves rates alone [CANSLIM] Stock Screens Re: [CANSLIM] ALGI [CANSLIM] AFCI trashed Re: [CANSLIM] AFCI trashed [CANSLIM] Totally Non-Canslim - db and JW don't read (was Finance - Money Daily @ 06/30/98) [CANSLIM] More Noise - simple economics (again, db and JW shouldn't read) [CANSLIM] Re: Screening site Re: [CANSLIM] Stock Screens Re: [CANSLIM] Stock Screens (BUNZ Profit Warning) Re: [CANSLIM] AFCI trashed [CANSLIM] Re: canslim-digest V2 #306 Re: [CANSLIM] Stock Screens [CANSLIM] CANSLIM methodology question Re: [CANSLIM] CANSLIM methodology question RE: [CANSLIM] Stock Screens RE: [CANSLIM] AFCI trashed RE: [CANSLIM] AFCI trashed RE: [CANSLIM] AFCI trashed RE: [CANSLIM] AFCI trashed RE: [CANSLIM] Stock Screens [CANSLIM] HGS file (07/01/98) Re: [CANSLIM] HGS file (07/01/98) [CANSLIM] More Noise - simple economics (again, db and JW shouldn't read) Re: [CANSLIM] CANSLIM methodology question ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Date: Wed, 1 Jul 1998 10:10:45 -0700 (PDT) From: dbphoenix Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] THRX <> Not to argue, but it's not a buying opportunity until it shows renewed strength beyond a deadcat bounce. It could easily fall further. It's only begun to slow its descent, but that doesn't mean it's ready to rise. - --Db _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - - ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 1 Jul 1998 11:20:58 -0700 From: "Ken Davidson" Subject: [CANSLIM] fed leaves rates alone 7/1/98 2:20 est. The Fed decided to leave rates alone after they finished their two day meeting to discuss if they were going to change their interest rate policy. Before the release of their statement the Dow was up about +50 points, S&P 500 up +6.50. The 30-year bond was up about +4/32nds lowering the yield to 5.61%. Initial reaction to the release saw the market ignore it completely as it had already discounted the announcement and remained flat. Ken - - ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 1 Jul 1998 18:44:45 -0500 From: "Amy Porter and Rich Bejtlich" Subject: [CANSLIM] Stock Screens Hello all, I'm looking for a stock screen using CS principles. I've looked at www.marketplayer.com and others, but they don't seem to offer the quarter-to-quarter growth acceleration indicators advocated by WON. Has anyone found a screen best matching CS, either free online, subscription online, or subscription software? Also, is Daily Graphs Online the only PC product offered by WON, and does it screen for CS? Any other recommendations like Telescan, etc.? Thank you. As I learn more I hope to add to this discussion. Rich Bejtlich (bate-lik) P.S. I bought HAIN Monday, since it appeared to have the strongest CS numbers of any New America company of the last two months. Thanks to losses late Monday, Tuesday, and today, I'm below my 8% sell already and will probably liquidate tomorrow. I have held PSUN, LOWE, and ANF for two months; they are doing well. I bought HEI, IMCO, and BKE using CS during the last two months also and had to sell all three due to 8%+ drops. - - ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 1 Jul 1998 19:55:45 -0400 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] ALGI Per DGO, even after moving quickly from 24 to 35, the trailing PE is still only 30. There is no forecast, thus less than three analysts following it, however I note it earned in Q1 (37 cents) more than half of what it earned for all of FY97 (71 cents). A/D is A, and funds already reported owning 8% of a very small issue (2.4 mil shares), no idea what the float may be. But this is what can happen on those non-canslim type microcaps when they get discovered by the funds. Course thanks to the price move, this one now has a market cap over $50 mil so guess it no longer qualifies as a micro and can now be counted as potential canslim. Way, way too extended for now, tho, for any consideration as a buy. Tom W - -----Original Message----- From: Tim Fisher To: canslim@mail.xmission.com Cc: upupandaway@shango.com Date: Wednesday, July 01, 1998 10:08 AM Subject: [CANSLIM] ALGI >I noticed this one on the tag-and-bag section of Clearstation when it popped >up 7 points and added it to my "recommended" list there a few months ago >cause it looked like an LLUR. Subsequently some of you have posted about it. >No data on Zacks, too small for that. Anyway it's popping the cork and they >don't know why. Thought I'd post this for grins. Anyone have any good data >on it? > >Tuesday June 30, 10:26 am Eastern Time > >American Locker CEO doesn't know why stock up > >NEW YORK, June 30 (Reuters) - American Locker Group Inc.'s (ALGI - news) >chairman and chief executive Harold Ruttenburg >said he knows of no reason why his company's stock jumped 11 points early >Tuesday to hit a new high of 39. > >``I'm as bewildered as anyone,'' he told Reuters. ``Nobody has approached us >(about an acquisition), nobody has written a report, >our earnings won't be until the end of July.'' > >Trading volume of 38,600 shares was light. > >On Monday, the company closed at a new high of 28. > >The company makes and sells coin and key controlled checking lockers and locks. > >Tim Fisher, 1995 President, Pacific Fishery Biologists >Ore-ROCK-On Rockhounding Web Site >PFB Information >mailto:tim@OreRockOn.com >WWW http://OreRockOn.com > > >- > - - ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 1 Jul 1998 20:10:47 -0400 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] AFCI trashed If you want an example of how even a canslim stock can be trashed, and trash your portfolio, as well as how you can get killed on a simple sell stop (vice sell stop limit) take a look at Advanced Fiber Com. RS now down to 78, and likely to drop even lower. Lost 22 pts today (over 50%) when it warned of bad upcoming earnings (7 - 9 cents vice expectations for 17 cents). This stock before today had top drawer cs elements, and looking quickly at the chart I don't see any obvious warning signs other than "funds 48%" (and offsetting this somewhat was "management 22%"); u/d of 0.8; and a trailing PE of 70. Chart wise it looked decent before today. A/D was a B. Hopefully not a "shot across the bow" for the telecom-equip or telecom group in general, I haven't read the news release so don't know what factors they are blaming. Now for the automated response from db on how he avoided this one. Tom W - - ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 1 Jul 1998 17:30:53 -0700 (PDT) From: dbphoenix Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] AFCI trashed <> ? - --Db _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - - ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 1 Jul 1998 20:30:23 -0400 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] Totally Non-Canslim - db and JW don't read (was Finance - Money Daily @ 06/30/98) With permission of the author, the following summary is passed to you on group action, since many are discussing group leadership. This is one of many reports I get daily free from Infobeat. The comments here reflect in particular the upcoming Q2 earnings reporting cycle. Tom W - -----Original Message----- From: InfoBeat To: stkguru@netside.net Date: Tuesday, June 30, 1998 10:38 AM Subject: Finance - Money Daily @ 06/30/98 > by Michael Brush > http://moneydaily.com > > What those numbers show about the impact of Asian economic weakness, the growing trade deficit and the constraints companies face when they try to increase prices, will set the tone of the market for a good part of the summer - - if not longer. > > * Second verse, same as the first. Overall, the same sectors that got hit in the first quarter are likely to get spanked again. The biggest losers will be energy and basic materials, like paper and chemicals, areas hurt by declining commodity prices. > > In the energy sector, however, some newcomers have popped up. Oil drillers and equipment suppliers have joined the major oil companies in getting downward revisions to their earnings estimates. Last quarter, they squeaked by without too much damage. > > Technology companies continue to be under pressure, and here too there are some new faces: software companies. Trucking and airline firms are also under pressure for the first time. > > On the bright side, retailers, home builders, home furnishers and brokerage houses have received healthy upward revisions to their earnings, notes Charles Hill of First Call. These groups have gotten a shot in the arm from the wealth effect caused by the booming stock market, full employment and lower interest rates. > > "For our growth fund, we have been concentrating on the retail and consumer areas," says John Calamos, of Calamos Asset Management. "The economy seems to be doing well and the consumer seems to be driving it. These areas should continue to do well throughout the rest of the year." > > * Expect sluggish overall growth again. As of Friday, company analysts were looking for a 3.6% gain in the second-quarter earnings of S&P 500 companies, according to First Call. But if the normal number of positive surprises come through, you can expect actual profit growth of about 4% to 6%, says Hill. In the first quarter, S&P 500 earnings were up 3.8%. > > Hill says, however, that unless the second quarter comes through at the upper end of that 4% to 6% range, the markets may begin to have doubts about the 10.4% and 16% earnings growth expected in the third and fourth quarters. And that would weigh on the stock market. > > * Expect the usual amount of positive "surprises" to move the market up. Each quarter, earnings normally beat expectations by about 2% to 3%. That's because corporate investor relations departments ? not wanting to turn in a negative surprise -- typically talk Wall Street analysts down to the lower end of the range their company expects to earn. Even though the markets know this is going on, investors react favorably when the typical 2% to 3% "surprise" comes through. This quarter should be no different, says Hill. > > > Winners and losers: > Sectors with the biggest expected gains... > > Category Forecasted change* Change since > April 3 > Securities brokers +28% +24 percentage points > Autos > +26% +15 > Home construction > +26% +16 > Apparel retailers > +24% +7 > Specialty retailers +21% +5 > Broadline retailers +17% +2 > > ... and losses. > Secondary oil companies -52% -28 > Semiconductors -40% -14 > Railroads -32% -21 > Toys -25% -32 > Communication equipment -19% -10 > Forest products -18% -54 > Source: First Call > *Second quarter gains or losses compared to last year, as of June 26. > Send your commments to Michael Brush > - - ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 1 Jul 1998 20:43:09 -0400 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] More Noise - simple economics (again, db and JW shouldn't read) Tomorrow carries a heavy weight of economic reports, and so far the trend is that results will be worse than many forecast. The NAPM report today came in well under the forecast, 49.6 vice a drop to 51.0 expected. This is the first evidence of actual shrinkage, vice simple slowing, in so long that I can't remember. Construction spending likewise showed a serious drop, reporting a negative 1.5% vice expectations for a growth of 0.4% (still down from last month). Tomorrow, the major report due is the employment report, now forecast around 200,000 new jobs. Also due out is the overall unemployment, expected to increase slightly to 4.4%; hourly earnings expected to grow only 3 cents to $12.77; hours worked expected to drop slightly to 34.6/week; weekly jobless claims to grow substantially (much due to the GM strike) to 400,000 new claims; and factory orders (a portent of future economic activity) to drop further to a minus 1.4%. While the mkt was not expecting the weak NAPM report today, it shrugged it off (the bond mkt esp) because of the major rally in the Japanese mkt (note that the US bond mkt not selling off even with the Japanese mkt going up). But if all these reports come in at the levels being forecasted, or worse, then in combination they spell a seriously weakening economy. That's good for inflation fears and fears of a Fed rate hike, but the stock mkt won't like what it says about the ability of big cap stocks and intl corps to grow sales and earnings. This is potentially a lot of negative economic stuff for the bond and stock mkt to digest in a single day. I would expect lots of volatility at the least. And the GM strike clearly (pun not intended) muddies the waters and creates confusion, the one thing the mkt hates worse than inflation. Tom W - - ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 1 Jul 1998 17:56:44 -0700 (PDT) From: Tannis Malone Subject: [CANSLIM] Re: Screening site You asked about a site that screens microcaps. Have you seen http://www.iqc.com/scan/? TM _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - - ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 1 Jul 1998 21:03:11 -0400 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Stock Screens Rich, As far as I am aware, DGO and the IBD website are all that Wm O'Neill is currently offering on the internet. I am not aware of him offering any of his many products on floppies either. One new feature of DGO now that it finally went commercial is a report updated daily which lists stocks within 5% of their high with RS and EPS of 80 or better and an A/D of B or better. As screens go, it could be better, but I find it a useful starting place, esp since you can scroll the charts for each one on the list quite easily and see the ones with bases. This list from trading on 6/30 has 262 stocks on it, but unlike db's still secret list, they won't all meet all seven elements of CANSLIM. Tom W - -----Original Message----- From: Amy Porter and Rich Bejtlich To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Date: Wednesday, July 01, 1998 7:42 PM Subject: [CANSLIM] Stock Screens >Hello all, > >I'm looking for a stock screen using CS principles. I've looked at >www.marketplayer.com and others, but they don't seem to offer the >quarter-to-quarter growth acceleration indicators advocated by WON. Has >anyone found a screen best matching CS, either free online, subscription >online, or subscription software? Also, is Daily Graphs Online the only PC >product offered by WON, and does it screen for CS? Any other >recommendations like Telescan, etc.? > >Thank you. As I learn more I hope to add to this discussion. > >Rich Bejtlich (bate-lik) > >P.S. I bought HAIN Monday, since it appeared to have the strongest CS >numbers of any New America company of the last two months. Thanks to losses >late Monday, Tuesday, and today, I'm below my 8% sell already and will >probably liquidate tomorrow. I have held PSUN, LOWE, and ANF for two >months; they are doing well. I bought HEI, IMCO, and BKE using CS during the >last two months also and had to sell all three due to 8%+ drops. > > > > >- > - - ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 01 Jul 1998 21:23:26 -0700 From: David Reid Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Stock Screens (BUNZ Profit Warning) After a big gap up today on some supposed "good news". BUNZ warned after closing today that they will miss 2cnd quarter estimates . The stock is up from 13 to 18 1/2 in just a few days. Check the news on yahoo. This may be another falling knife in the morning . I got out of this one with a loss a couple weeks ago. I may short first thing in morning. David Tom Worley wrote: > Rich, > > As far as I am aware, DGO and the IBD website are all that Wm O'Neill > is currently offering on the internet. I am not aware of him offering > any of his many products on floppies either. > > One new feature of DGO now that it finally went commercial is a report > updated daily which lists stocks within 5% of their high with RS and > EPS of 80 or better and an A/D of B or better. As screens go, it could > be better, but I find it a useful starting place, esp since you can > scroll the charts for each one on the list quite easily and see the > ones with bases. > > This list from trading on 6/30 has 262 stocks on it, but unlike db's > still secret list, they won't all meet all seven elements of CANSLIM. > > Tom W > > -----Original Message----- > From: Amy Porter and Rich Bejtlich > To: canslim@lists.xmission.com > Date: Wednesday, July 01, 1998 7:42 PM > Subject: [CANSLIM] Stock Screens > > >Hello all, > > > >I'm looking for a stock screen using CS principles. I've looked at > >www.marketplayer.com and others, but they don't seem to offer the > >quarter-to-quarter growth acceleration indicators advocated by WON. > Has > >anyone found a screen best matching CS, either free online, > subscription > >online, or subscription software? Also, is Daily Graphs Online the > only PC > >product offered by WON, and does it screen for CS? Any other > >recommendations like Telescan, etc.? > > > >Thank you. As I learn more I hope to add to this discussion. > > > >Rich Bejtlich (bate-lik) > > > >P.S. I bought HAIN Monday, since it appeared to have the strongest > CS > >numbers of any New America company of the last two months. Thanks to > losses > >late Monday, Tuesday, and today, I'm below my 8% sell already and > will > >probably liquidate tomorrow. I have held PSUN, LOWE, and ANF for two > >months; they are doing well. I bought HEI, IMCO, and BKE using CS > during the > >last two months also and had to sell all three due to 8%+ drops. > > > > > > > > > >- > > > > - - - ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 1 Jul 1998 21:22:41 -0400 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] AFCI trashed Gee, db, you got an answer for virtually every thing else posted here? Are you in the dark on this one? Tom W - -----Original Message----- From: dbphoenix To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Date: Wednesday, July 01, 1998 8:24 PM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] AFCI trashed > >< > >Tom W>> > > ? > >--Db > > > > > >_________________________________________________________ >DO YOU YAHOO!? >Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com > > >- > - - ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 1 Jul 1998 21:18:06 -0500 From: "Amy Porter and Rich Bejtlich" Subject: [CANSLIM] Re: canslim-digest V2 #306 Regarding WON's position on IPOs: During his 6 June satellite investment conference, a caller asked how to apply CANSLIM to IPOs. She wanted to know how CS numbers could exist if the company just went public. WON replied that IBD uses numbers from before the issue, since a firm must exist and sell goods/services if it is to go public later! Therefore, earnings, ROE, etc. are available, although RS and other indicators comparing performance to other issues over a TTM period may be lacking. I also remember WON recommending to avoid IPOs until a familiar pattern develops, as with any other stock. Just my 2 cents. Richard Bejtlich - - ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 01 Jul 1998 22:25:49 -0500 From: "Thomas A. Moulton" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Stock Screens Check out www.stockmaster.com Enter a Stock Symbol and use the pull down menu to pick Earnings History. It only shows the year to year in % growth but the quarterly numbers are formatted nice it's easy to check in your head. - -- Thomas A. Moulton, W2VY http://www.xanthus.net/w2vy - - ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 1 Jul 1998 21:37:57 -0500 From: "Amy Porter and Rich Bejtlich" Subject: [CANSLIM] CANSLIM methodology question After joining this group Friday, I can't keep quiet! Here's a deeper question. As I understand, WON developed CANSLIM after identifying characteristics common to the best performing 500 or so stocks of the last 40+ years, right before their greatest price advances. Here's my question: how many OTHER stocks, with similar characteristics, failed to perform? If 500 took off, did perhaps 100 others fail? Did 1000 fail? Did 10000 fail?!? In other words, how good are our odds with CANSLIM? I pondered this after reading James O'Shaughnessy's "What Works on Wall Street, Revised Edition." Skipping all the 50 best/50 worst analysis, I concentrated on his decile results. His approach to discovering the best stock strategy was to formulate many selection styles (like highest RS, PSR <1) and apply them to 40+ years of data. Some performed much better than others, like CANSLIM proposes to do. Do you see the difference between JOS and WON? (And what's with O'Whatever??) Are both approaches valid? I have not lost much sleep over this question but I'm curious as to your opinions. Richard Bejtlich - - ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 1 Jul 1998 19:52:20 -0700 (PDT) From: dbphoenix Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] CANSLIM methodology question <> Whether both approaches are valid or not depends on what you want and expect from an investment strategy. The two approaches have nothing to do with each other. O'S' "strategies" are purely mechanical and are calculated over very long periods of time. Even so, his results are not spectacular. Better than the indices, but not spectacular. O'N, on the other hand, is talking about an investment package--finding and selecting stocks based on fundamentals, choosing entry and exit points based on chart patterns, determining the strategies for money and portfolio management which are most appropriate for oneself, and always keeping an eye peeled for what the stock's group and the market itself are up to. There is nothing mechanical about it. Nor is there anything necessarily long-term about it. You are correct in pointing out the logical fallacy of O'N's reasoning. It's tripped up many a would-be backtester. In other words, saying that X number of "winners" exhibited Y characteristics does not necessarily mean that all stock which exhibit Y will become winners. But, as I said, CS is a package. There's nothing unique about it. Many of its principles have been used for more than a century. But O'N was the first to put all these principles together in one place, then begin publishing a newspaper that would enable the individual investor to make best use of these principles in a practical manner. Even so, there is no scientific basis for the superiority or even desirability of O'N's "method". But thousands of people have been using it for ten years now and finding success with it. What's both gratifying and frustrating about it is that one's success with it depends almost entirely on oneself and not the method. - --Db _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - - ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 1 Jul 1998 19:56:39 -0700 From: Mike Lucero Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Stock Screens HAIN wasn't breaking out of a 7+ week base. Buying a stock coming out of a base, just above an old previous 52-week high, would probably keep you from being stopped out with an 8% stop. That's where the 8% stop rule comes from. Mike On Wednesday, July 01, 1998 4:45 PM, Amy Porter and Rich Bejtlich [SMTP:bejtlich@texas.net] wrote: > Hello all, > > I'm looking for a stock screen using CS principles. I've looked at > www.marketplayer.com and others, but they don't seem to offer the > quarter-to-quarter growth acceleration indicators advocated by WON. Has > anyone found a screen best matching CS, either free online, subscription > online, or subscription software? Also, is Daily Graphs Online the only PC > product offered by WON, and does it screen for CS? Any other > recommendations like Telescan, etc.? > > Thank you. As I learn more I hope to add to this discussion. > > Rich Bejtlich (bate-lik) > > P.S. I bought HAIN Monday, since it appeared to have the strongest CS > numbers of any New America company of the last two months. Thanks to losses > late Monday, Tuesday, and today, I'm below my 8% sell already and will > probably liquidate tomorrow. I have held PSUN, LOWE, and ANF for two > months; they are doing well. I bought HEI, IMCO, and BKE using CS during the > last two months also and had to sell all three due to 8%+ drops. > > > > > > - - ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 1 Jul 1998 19:59:43 -0700 From: Mike Lucero Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] AFCI trashed I'm a little worried that the buy signal came just at the end of a quarter. Most of the stocks on my watchlist (including those I've bought) will be reporting earnings very soon. I hope there's enough time for them to give me enough profit that they can take a hit and I won't have to sell. Mike On Wednesday, July 01, 1998 5:11 PM, Tom Worley [SMTP:stkguru@netside.net] wrote: > If you want an example of how even a canslim stock can be trashed, and > trash your portfolio, as well as how you can get killed on a simple > sell stop (vice sell stop limit) take a look at Advanced Fiber Com. RS > now down to 78, and likely to drop even lower. Lost 22 pts today (over > 50%) when it warned of bad upcoming earnings (7 - 9 cents vice > expectations for 17 cents). This stock before today had top drawer cs > elements, and looking quickly at the chart I don't see any obvious > warning signs other than "funds 48%" (and offsetting this somewhat was > "management 22%"); u/d of 0.8; and a trailing PE of 70. Chart wise it > looked decent before today. A/D was a B. Hopefully not a "shot across > the bow" for the telecom-equip or telecom group in general, I haven't > read the news release so don't know what factors they are blaming. > > Now for the automated response from db on how he avoided this one. > > > Tom W > > > > > - - ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 1 Jul 1998 20:19:43 -0700 From: Mike Lucero Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] AFCI trashed I meant the market's buy signal on Tuesday of last week. Mike On Wednesday, July 01, 1998 8:00 PM, Mike Lucero [SMTP:mikelu@foxinternet.net] wrote: > I'm a little worried that the buy signal came just at the end of a quarter. > Most of the stocks on my watchlist (including those I've bought) will be > reporting earnings very soon. I hope there's enough time for them to give > me enough profit that they can take a hit and I won't have to sell. > > Mike > > On Wednesday, July 01, 1998 5:11 PM, Tom Worley [SMTP:stkguru@netside.net] > wrote: > > If you want an example of how even a canslim stock can be trashed, and > > trash your portfolio, as well as how you can get killed on a simple > > sell stop (vice sell stop limit) take a look at Advanced Fiber Com. RS > > now down to 78, and likely to drop even lower. Lost 22 pts today (over > > 50%) when it warned of bad upcoming earnings (7 - 9 cents vice > > expectations for 17 cents). This stock before today had top drawer cs > > elements, and looking quickly at the chart I don't see any obvious > > warning signs other than "funds 48%" (and offsetting this somewhat was > > "management 22%"); u/d of 0.8; and a trailing PE of 70. Chart wise it > > looked decent before today. A/D was a B. Hopefully not a "shot across > > the bow" for the telecom-equip or telecom group in general, I haven't > > read the news release so don't know what factors they are blaming. > > > > Now for the automated response from db on how he avoided this one. > > > > > > Tom W > > > > > > > > > > > > > - - ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 1 Jul 1998 20:36:14 -0700 (PDT) From: dbphoenix Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] AFCI trashed <> Wouldn't be a bad time to begin reviewing your strategy in terms of price targets, how much profit you have, at what point you may want to take a percentage off the table, what you plan to do if the stock has a run-up right before earnings, where you'll put your stop in case things don't go your way, etc. Just think of it as a business decision that has nothing to do with your self-worth. Pretend you're a fund manager and it's somebody else's money :) - --Db _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - - ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 1 Jul 1998 20:55:47 -0600 From: "Dan Sutton" Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] AFCI trashed I have drafted and deleted several replies to this post. Fortunately, I learned a long time ago not to send the first response that comes to mind. If you truly want an answer I would suggest you phrase your question in a more professional and less insulting manner. If you just want to stir up the shit again and clutter everybody's computer with unwanted insults, I would suggest that you e-mail your target privately so I don't have to wade through 20 e-mailed childish insults. That particular exercise in futility has already had it's run, and really doesn't help me focus on gleaning any information from the group. To paraphrase another member.. "Click" - -----Original Message----- From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com] On Behalf Of Tom Worley Sent: Wednesday, July 01, 1998 7:23 PM To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] AFCI trashed Gee, db, you got an answer for virtually every thing else posted here? Are you in the dark on this one? Tom W - -----Original Message----- From: dbphoenix To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Date: Wednesday, July 01, 1998 8:24 PM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] AFCI trashed > >< > >Tom W>> > > ? > >--Db > > > > > >_________________________________________________________ >DO YOU YAHOO!? >Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com > > >- > - - - - ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 1 Jul 1998 22:00:57 -0600 From: "Dan Sutton" Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Stock Screens Telescan is the closest customizable screening software I have found. It still has some quirks and the numbers do not always coincide with those of IBD but it's good for screens of a massive magnitude. You still need to do more research even after you have found a list of candidates. - -----Original Message----- From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com] On Behalf Of Amy Porter and Rich Bejtlich Sent: Wednesday, July 01, 1998 5:45 PM To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Subject: [CANSLIM] Stock Screens Hello all, I'm looking for a stock screen using CS principles. I've looked at www.marketplayer.com and others, but they don't seem to offer the quarter-to-quarter growth acceleration indicators advocated by WON. Has anyone found a screen best matching CS, either free online, subscription online, or subscription software? Also, is Daily Graphs Online the only PC product offered by WON, and does it screen for CS? Any other recommendations like Telescan, etc.? Thank you. As I learn more I hope to add to this discussion. Rich Bejtlich (bate-lik) P.S. I bought HAIN Monday, since it appeared to have the strongest CS numbers of any New America company of the last two months. Thanks to losses late Monday, Tuesday, and today, I'm below my 8% sell already and will probably liquidate tomorrow. I have held PSUN, LOWE, and ANF for two months; they are doing well. I bought HEI, IMCO, and BKE using CS during the last two months also and had to sell all three due to 8%+ drops. - - - - ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 1 Jul 1998 22:11:39 -0600 From: "Dan Sutton" Subject: [CANSLIM] HGS file (07/01/98) Ok , so the market jumped 90 points...here's tonights HGS scan ftp://ftp.xmission.com/pub/users/m/mcjathan/canslim/hgs0701.xls - - ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 1 Jul 1998 22:10:45 -0700 (PDT) From: dbphoenix Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] HGS file (07/01/98) Of Dan's list, the following have a rising weekly MACD, a 50d > 200d, and a rising daily slosto within the last five days. ADVP ANF CRFT DFG ERICY ESCA ISCG MRTN OROA - --Db _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - - ------------------------------ Date: 2 Jul 98 17:30:48 From: Dean Edwards Subject: [CANSLIM] More Noise - simple economics (again, db and JW shouldn't read) Tom, Are you still bullish on the US economy? I noted with interest the US railroad sector in particular, in your previous email - Railroads -32% -21. Being from New Zealand and as an observer, it seems to me the US market is euphoric state, especially with the internet group stocks. I am amazed at our resilient the US market is, compared to the rest of the world. My interpretation would be that US consumer spending is still driving the market upward - autos, home construction and retailers but for how long? Doom and gloom has struck New Zealand and the rest of Asia. It has been anounced that NZ had negative GDP for the first quater. One more quarter of negative GDP growth and we will be officially in a recession along with Japan. My fellow government statistician took one look at the railway statistics for NZ and is already predicting a recession. Based on the fact that most of our NZ exports (coal,wood logs,dairy products) are transported by railroad. - ---------------------- Forwarded by Dean Edwards on 02/07/98 15:57 - --------------------------- stkguru@netside.net ("Tom Worley") on 02/07/98 12:43:09 To: canslim@xmission.com ("CANSLIM") @ INTERNET cc: (bcc: Dean Edwards) Subject: [CANSLIM] More Noise - simple economics (again, db and JW shouldn't read) Tomorrow carries a heavy weight of economic reports, and so far the trend is that results will be worse than many forecast. The NAPM report today came in well under the forecast, 49.6 vice a drop to 51.0 expected. This is the first evidence of actual shrinkage, vice simple slowing, in so long that I can't remember. Construction spending likewise showed a serious drop, reporting a negative 1.5% vice expectations for a growth of 0.4% (still down from last month). Tomorrow, the major report due is the employment report, now forecast around 200,000 new jobs. Also due out is the overall unemployment, expected to increase slightly to 4.4%; hourly earnings expected to grow only 3 cents to $12.77; hours worked expected to drop slightly to 34.6/week; weekly jobless claims to grow substantially (much due to the GM strike) to 400,000 new claims; and factory orders (a portent of future economic activity) to drop further to a minus 1.4%. While the mkt was not expecting the weak NAPM report today, it shrugged it off (the bond mkt esp) because of the major rally in the Japanese mkt (note that the US bond mkt not selling off even with the Japanese mkt going up). But if all these reports come in at the levels being forecasted, or worse, then in combination they spell a seriously weakening economy. That's good for inflation fears and fears of a Fed rate hike, but the stock mkt won't like what it says about the ability of big cap stocks and intl corps to grow sales and earnings. This is potentially a lot of negative economic stuff for the bond and stock mkt to digest in a single day. I would expect lots of volatility at the least. And the GM strike clearly (pun not intended) muddies the waters and creates confusion, the one thing the mkt hates worse than inflation. Tom W - - - - ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 2 Jul 1998 06:10:45 -0400 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] CANSLIM methodology question Rich, One thing that I have found that sets WON's approach apart from many other "systems" is that he not only has rules on selling, he has far more rules on when and why to sell than on what and when to buy. Tom W - -----Original Message----- From: Amy Porter and Rich Bejtlich To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Date: Wednesday, July 01, 1998 10:33 PM Subject: [CANSLIM] CANSLIM methodology question >Here's a deeper question. As I understand, WON developed CANSLIM after >identifying characteristics common to the best performing 500 or so stocks >of the last 40+ years, right before their greatest price advances. Here's >my question: how many OTHER stocks, with similar characteristics, failed to >perform? If 500 took off, did perhaps 100 others fail? Did 1000 fail? Did >10000 fail?!? In other words, how good are our odds with CANSLIM? > >I pondered this after reading James O'Shaughnessy's "What Works on Wall >Street, Revised Edition." Skipping all the 50 best/50 worst analysis, I > >Do you see the difference between JOS and WON? (And what's with >O'Whatever??) Are both approaches valid? > - - ------------------------------ End of canslim-digest V2 #313 ***************************** To unsubscribe to canslim-digest, send an email to "majordomo@xmission.com" with "unsubscribe canslim-digest" in the body of the message. For information on digests or retrieving files and old messages send "help" to the same address. Do not use quotes in your message.