From: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com (canslim-digest) To: canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Subject: canslim-digest V2 #331 Reply-To: canslim Sender: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Errors-To: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Precedence: bulk X-No-Archive: yes canslim-digest Monday, July 20 1998 Volume 02 : Number 331 In this issue: [CANSLIM] Groups to look at Re: [CANSLIM] Groups to look at Re: [CANSLIM] Groups to look at Re: [CANSLIM] Groups to look at Re: [CANSLIM] [Not CANSLIM] VIX Re: [CANSLIM] Explanation for downgrade of TMBS. Others in same group also down: PSQL, SSNC Re: [CANSLIM] Explanation for downgrade of TMBS. Others in same group also down: PSQL, SSNC [CANSLIM] Shareware charting & tech analysis program: Parity 1.5 Re: [CANSLIM] Groups to look at IBD 6/5 Re: [CANSLIM] Groups to look at IBD 6/16 Re: [CANSLIM] Groups to look at IBD 5/18 Re: [CANSLIM] Furniture Re: [CANSLIM] Groups to look at Re: [CANSLIM] Groups to look at Re: [CANSLIM] Shareware charting & tech analysis program: Parity 1.5 Re: [CANSLIM] Groups to look at IBD 5/18 [CANSLIM] Nomination best post ever in the category "quality of life enhancing" posts. Re: [CANSLIM] Shareware charting & tech analysis program: Parity 1.5 Re: [CANSLIM] Furniture RE: [CANSLIM] Thoughts on Thursday IBD Article Re: [CANSLIM] Shareware charting & tech analysis program: Parity 1.5 Re: [CANSLIM] Groups to look at RE: [CANSLIM] Thoughts on Thursday IBD Article Re: [CANSLIM] Groups to look at Re: [CANSLIM] Groups to look at [CANSLIM] Stops and Sell Strategies ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Date: Sun, 19 Jul 1998 17:15:42 -0700 (PDT) From: dbphoenix Subject: [CANSLIM] Groups to look at Here are several up-and-coming groups which include some up-and-coming stocks: Staffing Medical Software Mortgage Services Home Furnishings - --Db _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - - ------------------------------ Date: Sun, 19 Jul 1998 19:35:44 -0500 From: "Joe Scott" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Groups to look at Db, First of all thanks for the info Db, but where could a list of the stocks contained in these groups be found? For anyone to comment on; Here are a couple I'm looking at for a possible purchase on Monday depending on the market, and how they act in the first hour or so. USAI, and AXNT. I was considering KTIE, looks to be a canslim candidate, but didn't like the look of the chart as much. joe jo@koyote.com http://www.koyote.com/users/jo - - ------------------------------ Date: Sun, 19 Jul 1998 18:06:41 -0700 (PDT) From: dbphoenix Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Groups to look at <> The easiest way would be to order a copy of IBD's guide to industry groups. Unfortunately I don't have the ordering information, but I know at least several members of the group have the booklet. Perhaps one of them could provide us with the info? - --Db _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - - ------------------------------ Date: Sun, 19 Jul 1998 22:01:28 -0400 From: Al French Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Groups to look at Call IBD at 800-831-2525. Price is $35. Al French dbphoenix wrote: > > < but where could a list of the stocks contained in these groups be > found?>> > > The easiest way would be to order a copy of IBD's guide to industry > groups. Unfortunately I don't have the ordering information, but I > know at least several members of the group have the booklet. Perhaps > one of them could provide us with the info? > > --Db > > _________________________________________________________ > DO YOU YAHOO!? > Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com > > - - - ------------------------------ Date: Sun, 19 Jul 1998 19:10:57 -0700 (PDT) From: rolatzi Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] [Not CANSLIM] VIX Craig: I like your idea of looking for breakdowns below 50d MA and then bounces off the 50d MA from the underside. It essentially gives you two concurring signals of weakness. If I had qp2 I would begin some scans on this basis but I won't be getting it until the summer is over and I have more time at home. Ciao, Rolatzi - ---Craig Griffin wrote: > > Rolatzi, > > Thanks for mentioning the VIX, interesting comments. > > At 01:06 PM 7/17/98 -0700, you wrote: > >(snip...) > >Does anyone > >have options on indices or favorite overpriced stocks (Don't give me > >AMZN) that they think would provide good insurance in case of a drop. > > Instead of looking for overpriced stocks by themselves, you might try > looking for stocks that have decisively broken their 50 dma and for which > the 50dma is turning down. Short it when it bounces off of the 50dma from > the under side and turns down again. Then you have at least the short term > (50 day) trend moving your way and a "retest" of that moving average which > was not successful. Look for other technically bearish signs - such as > higher volume on down days and/or down weeks and breaking below important > support. Screen your candidates for those with the worst news or > fundamentals as well. Finally, you should probably wait for the market to > give a sell signal (at least one). Although, if you are just buying > "insurance", then that may be later than you want to wait ... OTOH, it > seems to me that the last couple of corrections have been preceeded by a > buying surge (just the thing to wash out the last of the shorts). At least > twice I can remember the group comments running something like "there have > been several days of distribution lately, but all the breakouts seem to > still be working and a lot of the other leaders are still hitting new > highs". Then a few days later the market turns on a dime. > > Just some thoughts ... > > Best regards, > Craig > > > - > > _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - - ------------------------------ Date: Sun, 19 Jul 1998 22:59:32 -0400 From: Dave Voelker Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Explanation for downgrade of TMBS. Others in same group also down: PSQL, SSNC > I disagree with your analysis of TMBS. It's a great CANSLIM stock but IMHO > is too small and therefore too volatile. It constantly violates an 8% stop. > If you follow WON's rules it's extremely hard to stay in it long enough to > make money. If you followed the rules you would have been out on Friday > (again) anyway. What in particular do you diagree with? TMBS is admittedly a smaller stock but with ~5M shares in the float it falls within CANSLIM. (Pg. 31 of HTMMIS, "...the median stock [of the greatest winners of the 40 year study] exhibited 4.6 million shares outstanding before advancing rapidly in price.) I agree that this is a volatile issue but, IMHO, not uncharasterically for an issue of it's float and ADV (~100,000). I am not sure I follow you when you refer to violating an 8% stop. As I mentioned in my original post despite the setback I am still showing a profit with TMBS and an 8% setback while shoing a profit is not a cause for me to sell. (An 8% loss, however is a different story.) I believe I am following WON's rules in regard to getting out, as much as anyone does I suppose, and without knowing my entry point how can you say that I should have gotten out on Friday (a 6.45% loss on the day). Regards - Dave Voelker - - ------------------------------ Date: Sun, 19 Jul 1998 23:45:21 -0400 From: Dave Voelker Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Explanation for downgrade of TMBS. Others in same group also down: PSQL, SSNC Johan wrote: > "Just my 2c. I do not recommend this way of looking at trading to others, as > they might have completely different objectives. Just works for me." > > I do not have any critique on your investment method. I do not know your > objectives, your time frame, which tools you have available, your available > capital, etc. > > Everyone should find out and do what works for them. Agree 100%! > Dave, my post was not meant to be a remark about TMBS. I was commenting on > how I was looking at the stock I own: PSQL. TMBS just happens to be in the > same group. That's why my attention was draw to your post. Now I understand your position better. > BTW, re: trading / investing. As far as I understand "M" one should have > been buying in Februari, selling in April/May and buying again in June. I > call this intermediate term trading. Investing for me is buying DELL for > example and holding for at least a year or two. But calling it trading or > investing, is semantics. Let us not get into discussing semantics. Agreed that we should all be above semantic arguments. I also agree that buying in February, selling in April/May and then buying again in June is intermediate term trading. The point I was trying to get across however was the mindset that new(er) CANSLIM practitioners often have that leads them to believe that a 6.5% correction, like TMBS took on Friday, is sufficient cause to immediately dump the stock and find something better. I have had to modify my own rules for guarding against loss that previously would hav had me out of TMBS on Friday. While I would have pocketed a decent profit I would have had to find another quality CANSLIM stock with just the parameters, not the easiest of tasks as we all know. > Some choose to ignore "M". If it works for them, fine. If your stocks are > acting OK, you shouldn't sell anyway. If one is able to consistently choose > stocks that are not influenced by 'M' and keep acting well during > corrections, my hat is off to those people. I don't intend to ignore "M" at all! Quite the contrary, I am a strong believer in the power of the industry group movement and watch those aspects of the market on a daily basis. Admittedly, I watch the broad markets loosely enough to know where the composites are heading but that is about it. > I want to get out when 'M' says sell, because I believe that the chances > that my particular stocks will hold up or will continue to go up are > significantly less when the market starts giving sell signals. You have mentioned that you weren't referring specifically to TMBS but this is perhaps the crux of our potential difference; I do not see a ~6.5% daily correction as a sell indicator, especially on an admittedly volatile stock like TMBS. > And I enjoy the peace it gives me to be 100% in cash. I applaud you, this is one of the things I have yet to learn to feel good about, even though I sat out all of May, it pained me to know that there was still money being made while I sat in cash. I am fully aware though that it is much easier to swim with the tide than against it and so I sat out. > As an example of our different ways of investing. I start selling as soon > as the market starts given sell signals and my stocks start acting weak. I > sold my stocks during the April/May/June correction. I do not see how *I* > could have gotten in TMBS after the 6/23 (or what was it again?) > follow-through day. See how different our approach is? That does not mean > yours or mine is bad or good, it means we have different ways of looking at > trading/investing. Agreed we are different in this respect, I have tried a philosophy of moving in and out fast and it did not work well for me and I feel much more comfortable holding through the ups and downs that I attribute to normal activity. I agree that a fundamental breakdown in the strength of the market, industry group or individual issue can justify an immediate withdrawal. > If I understand you correctly, we again differ in our approach. I believe > that the chart tells me when to sell and that the chart will tell me this > (long) before the fundamentals change. Perhaps a little misunderstanding here. I lean heavily toward the analytical side as well but I believe that we have differences in our analysical methodology. My reference to 'fundamental criteria' in my original post was mean to reflect the CANSLIM principles upon which I selected the issue in the first place and not the pure fundamentals as they often refer to financial performance of a company. > Thanks for your reaction, Dave. Hope you see my point also. And also hope > you can respect my viewpoint as I do yours. Johan you have my utmost respect for your viewpoint and I appreciate your willingness to discuss our differences in a friendy forum. For me this is the true benefit of this list, we should all be adult enough open our minds to new ways of thinking and to be willing to put aside our own preconceived notions about the way the world (and the market) works long enough to breathe in a few new thoughts. You never know when you might learn something. Regards - Dave Voelker - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 20 Jul 1998 11:39:24 +0200 From: Johan Van Houtven Subject: [CANSLIM] Shareware charting & tech analysis program: Parity 1.5 Came across this rather nice shareware charting & tech analysis program: Parity 1.5 while browsing some stock data related sites. For those who want to see what a charting program looks like and what you can do with it, Parity 1.5 is a nice opportunity since it is shareware. You can try it out for a limited time (1 month if I remember correctly) and then you can decide wether you want to keep it or not. Price is $79. I found it on this site: http://www.mobydata.com/ Just something I wanted to share.I do not use it myself as I already have a charting program. Johan Van Houtven / CLICK! N.V. - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 20 Jul 1998 03:37:19 -0700 (PDT) From: Tannis Malone Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Groups to look at IBD 6/5 This is the IBD portfolio of medical software groups that was featured 6/5 in Companies in the news. HBOC MECN MDMD QMDC DRTE WSHI INC IDXC TSIX MMGR CERN ADAM SUMT ONHN ACCS PILL HSDC MALL TRPS IFIT HDSK MEDP OCIS GLOB - ---Al French wrote: > > Call IBD at 800-831-2525. Price is $35. > > Al French > > dbphoenix wrote: > > > > < > but where could a list of the stocks contained in these groups be > > found?>> > > > > The easiest way would be to order a copy of IBD's guide to industry > > groups. Unfortunately I don't have the ordering information, but I > > know at least several members of the group have the booklet. Perhaps > > one of them could provide us with the info? > > > > --Db > > > > _________________________________________________________ > > DO YOU YAHOO!? > > Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com > > > > - > > - > > _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 20 Jul 1998 03:45:03 -0700 (PDT) From: Tannis Malone Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Groups to look at IBD 6/16 These are the staffing groups from CITN (companies in the news) on 6/16. They are listed in the order of strength as of the table on 6/16. SYNT AHLS WSTF RHI ROMC SCBI LBOR ASGN ASI REMX RCMT DPRC HDWY PGA MMWW STFF IS HIR BUTL STAF ASF - ---Al French wrote: > > Call IBD at 800-831-2525. Price is $35. > > Al French > > dbphoenix wrote: > > > > < > but where could a list of the stocks contained in these groups be > > found?>> > > > > The easiest way would be to order a copy of IBD's guide to industry > > groups. Unfortunately I don't have the ordering information, but I > > know at least several members of the group have the booklet. Perhaps > > one of them could provide us with the info? > > > > --Db > > > > _________________________________________________________ > > DO YOU YAHOO!? > > Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com > > > > - > > - > > _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 20 Jul 1998 04:08:21 -0700 (PDT) From: Tannis Malone Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Groups to look at IBD 5/18 Home furnishings IBD group 5/18 in CITN. Ranked by EPS & RS. RWAY LIN RCII RNT ETH HAVT FBN CBZ KFI CPWM GLBE BBA HMY RBDS TM - ---Al French wrote: > > Call IBD at 800-831-2525. Price is $35. > > Al French > > dbphoenix wrote: > > > > < > but where could a list of the stocks contained in these groups be > > found?>> > > > > The easiest way would be to order a copy of IBD's guide to industry > > groups. Unfortunately I don't have the ordering information, but I > > know at least several members of the group have the booklet. Perhaps > > one of them could provide us with the info? > > > > --Db > > > > _________________________________________________________ > > DO YOU YAHOO!? > > Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com > > > > - > > - > > _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 20 Jul 1998 05:37:31 -0700 From: Tim Fisher Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Furniture I believe Stanley Furniture is in that group as well. Very strong CANSLIM. At 04:08 AM 7/20/98 -0700, you wrote: >Home furnishings IBD group 5/18 in CITN. Ranked by EPS & RS. > >RWAY LIN RCII RNT ETH HAVT FBN CBZ KFI >CPWM GLBE BBA HMY RBDS >TM > Tim Fisher, 1995 President, Pacific Fishery Biologists Ore-ROCK-On Rockhounding Web Site PFB Information mailto:tim@OreRockOn.com WWW http://OreRockOn.com - - ------------------------------ Date: Sun, 19 Jul 1998 20:34:12 -0500 From: "Joe Scott" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Groups to look at I subscribe to Daily Graphs online, and it lists the top 100 groups of the week. There is no way though to sort stocks into these groups. I have used Quote.com http://www.quote.com/layout/index.frames.html , to get a list of stocks in groups, listed under "Industry Watch", but these are not the same groups as listed in IBD. joe jo@koyote.com http://www.koyote.com/users/jo - - ------------------------------ Date: Sun, 19 Jul 1998 21:12:04 -0500 From: "Joe Scott" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Groups to look at Thanks Al, I have a little problem sending them $35.00 when I subscribe to DG online, you would think it would be in that, but no, can't be that easy. joe jo@koyote.com http://www.koyote.com/users/jo - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 20 Jul 1998 19:45:21 +0700 From: "Peter Christiansen" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Shareware charting & tech analysis program: Parity 1.5 I tried Parity a long time ago. If I am not mistaken, it is no longer being developed. Peter Christiansen Chiang Mai - Thailand - -----Original Message----- From: Johan Van Houtven To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Date: Monday, July 20, 1998 4:41 PM Subject: [CANSLIM] Shareware charting & tech analysis program: Parity 1.5 >Came across this rather nice shareware charting & tech analysis program: >Parity 1.5 while browsing some stock data related sites. > >For those who want to see what a charting program looks like and what you >can do with it, Parity 1.5 is a nice opportunity since it is shareware. >You can try it out for a limited time (1 month if I remember correctly) and >then you can decide wether you want to keep it or not. Price is $79. > >I found it on this site: > >http://www.mobydata.com/ > >Just something I wanted to share.I do not use it myself as I already have a >charting program. > > > >Johan Van Houtven / CLICK! N.V. > > > > >- > > - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 20 Jul 1998 06:18:43 -0700 (PDT) From: dbphoenix Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Groups to look at IBD 5/18 Those of you who are interested in groups ought to start collecting these into a spreadsheet. In a few months you'll have a substantial number of the most important groups and won't have to spend so much time searching. In the dark. And with the Find function in your spreadsheet, you'll be able to learn instantly what group a particular stock belongs to. Remember that the next heavy buying season will begin around November. Thanks for the contribution, Tannis. - --Db _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 20 Jul 1998 12:19:33 +0200 From: Johan Van Houtven Subject: [CANSLIM] Nomination best post ever in the category "quality of life enhancing" posts. Dave, I was going to comment on some of the fine points you made, but the wisdom in your last paragraph made all my comments look rather futile. I'd like to nominate your post for best post ever in the category of "CANSLIM list - quality of life enhancing" posts. >> Thanks for your reaction, Dave. Hope you see my point also. >>And also hope you can respect my viewpoint as I do yours. > >Johan you have my utmost respect for your viewpoint and I appreciate >your willingness to discuss our differences in a friendy forum. For me >this is the true benefit of this list, we should all be adult enough >open our minds to new ways of thinking and to be willing to put aside >our own preconceived notions about the way the world (and the market) >works long enough to breathe in a few new thoughts. You never know when >you might learn something. > >Regards - >Dave Voelker > > > > >- > > Johan Van Houtven / CLICK! N.V. - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 20 Jul 1998 13:38:54 GMT From: musicant@autobahn.org (Dan Musicant) Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Shareware charting & tech analysis program: Parity 1.5 On Mon, 20 Jul 1998 11:39:24 +0200, you wrote: :Came across this rather nice shareware charting & tech analysis = program: :Parity 1.5 while browsing some stock data related sites. : :For those who want to see what a charting program looks like and what = you :can do with it, Parity 1.5 is a nice opportunity since it is shareware. :You can try it out for a limited time (1 month if I remember correctly) = and :then you can decide wether you want to keep it or not. Price is $79. : :I found it on this site:=20 : :http://www.mobydata.com/ : :Just something I wanted to share.I do not use it myself as I already = have a :charting program.=20 : : : :Johan Van Houtven / CLICK! N.V. : It seems to me that for charting and tech analysis there are two essential components: 1. The data 2. The program that "processes" this data, perhaps "analyses" it, and displays results in some ways that make it *comprehensible* and *useful*. Wouldn't you have to make some arrangements with *someone* to get data (updatable)? Dan musicant@autobahn.org - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 20 Jul 1998 10:14:38 -0400 From: "Frank V. Wolynski" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Furniture Tim according to the March 1998 IBD Industry Group and Ticker Sysmbol Guide, Stanley Furniture is part of the Household/Office Furniture group. It isn't part of the Retail-Home Furnishing group. Frank Wolynski At 05:37 7/20/98 -0700, you wrote: >I believe Stanley Furniture is in that group as well. Very strong CANSLIM. > >At 04:08 AM 7/20/98 -0700, you wrote: >>Home furnishings IBD group 5/18 in CITN. Ranked by EPS & RS. >> >>RWAY LIN RCII RNT ETH HAVT FBN CBZ KFI >>CPWM GLBE BBA HMY RBDS >>TM >> > > > >Tim Fisher, 1995 President, Pacific Fishery Biologists >Ore-ROCK-On Rockhounding Web Site >PFB Information >mailto:tim@OreRockOn.com >WWW http://OreRockOn.com > >- > > - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 20 Jul 1998 07:24:25 -0700 From: Brian Nash Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Thoughts on Thursday IBD Article I have to do it over the weekends, since my approach takes about 6 hours. I look at every chart in 'Weekend Review', throwing out the bancorps and things I know to be extended (207 this weekend). I'm using the crude Chart view in Yahoo!, mainly because you can look at 200 symbols at a time and I'm only looking for familiar patterns and the way the stock has behaved. I reserve anything with any merit (17 this weekend), and make a second pass through BigCharts looking at both 1-year weekly, daily, and 3-month daily charts with Volume by Price (to identify congestion areas), Money Flow, OBV, MACD, Slow Stochastic and Volume Accumulation. Anything with a divergent Money Flow or OBV gets the circular file. I don't care as much about the Stochastic in a trending market. I then look at A/D and group RS rank. It has to be at least a B/B, preferably an A/A. This threw out GLYT (98/93/B/C) this weekend. I'll also use some judgment. For example, I perceive money to be flowing out of big-cap retail. So I avoided things like GDYS a couple of weeks ago. This will leave me with as few as 1 stock and as many as 17 (4 this weekend), which I divide into an 'A' list and a 'B' list. The 'A' list contains things that I will buy under specific conditions, and I write those conditions down and follow that script exactly. The 'B' list has merit, but there's something that would prevent me from being comfortable buying it at the present. I always revisit it the next weekend. These are often great stocks, but I may have missed the entry point, or I'm uncomfortable with one of the technical indicators. For example, I wasn't comfortable with any of the entry points in LGTO, so I missed this great stock. I use MS Investor to add the stock to a watch list. I enter the pivot point in the "purchase price" field and the ADV in the "quantity" field. I then move the ADV next to the volume column, and the pivot point and % gain (which shows in color) next to the 'Last trade' field. I can then compare trading volume to ADV and see if the price is above or below the pivot. >>> Being in the military, we are taught to "plan" for contingencies and > assemble as much knowledge and equipment as possible prior to conflict. > How > do other CANSLIMmers work this dilemma with stocks? Do you screen for CS > picks using fundamentals, wait for them to make new highs, check the chart > for patterns, and then buy? I suppose one could also use technicals as > screens, but I am concerned TA is not as effective in uptrending markets. > (Honestly I know very little about TA, outside of a few IBD articles and > short chapters in books.) I am very interested in how others here make > the > best use of their limited time. <<< > > I think WON feels that most TA books are crap, and that all that matters is price and volume. >> Speaking of TA, what's WON's view? <<< - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 20 Jul 1998 16:29:10 +0200 From: Johan Van Houtven Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Shareware charting & tech analysis program: Parity 1.5 At 01:38 PM 20-07-98 GMT, you wrote: >It seems to me that for charting and tech analysis there are two >essential components: > >1. The data > >2. The program that "processes" this data, perhaps "analyses" it, and >displays results in some ways that make it *comprehensible* and >*useful*. > >Wouldn't you have to make some arrangements with *someone* to get data >(updatable)? Yes you do. I suggested looking at Parity so that you have an idea of what acharting prog is all about. Some people on this list have never seen or worked with a charting program. If someone wanted to really buy on, I'd suggest looking at Window On Wallstreet, MetaStock or Advanced GET to name a few. Parity 1.5: download it for free, play with it for free, then throw it away if you like. No harm done (I hope). Johan Van Houtven / CLICK! N.V. - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 20 Jul 1998 13:50:40 GMT From: musicant@autobahn.org (Dan Musicant) Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Groups to look at On Sun, 19 Jul 1998 21:12:04 -0500, you wrote: :Thanks Al, I have a little problem sending them $35.00 when I subscribe = to :DG online, you would think it would be in that, but no, can't be that = easy. : : :joe :jo@koyote.com :http://www.koyote.com/users/jo : : It may not be what you want, but it IS free: Yahoo Finance (home page =3D http://quote.yahoo.com/?u), on left side of screen, 2nd heading is "Reference". Under this, click "Research by Industry". This leads you to lists of stocks and symbols and the usual Yahoo research links. Dan musicant@autobahn.org - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 20 Jul 1998 08:10:45 -0700 From: Tim Fisher Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Thoughts on Thursday IBD Article Agree with LGTO, it doesn't really seem to need a breakout or obvious pivot point to move higher. I never found an excuse to get in but would have loved to. Behaves a little like a LLUR but isn't one. Guess it's a hybrid. At 07:24 AM 7/20/98 , you wrote: >This will leave me with as few as 1 stock and as many as 17 (4 this >weekend), which I divide into an 'A' list and a 'B' list. The 'A' list >contains things that I will buy under specific conditions, and I write those >conditions down and follow that script exactly. The 'B' list has merit, but >there's something that would prevent me from being comfortable buying it at >the present. I always revisit it the next weekend. These are often great >stocks, but I may have missed the entry point, or I'm uncomfortable with one >of the technical indicators. For example, I wasn't comfortable with any of >the entry points in LGTO, so I missed this great stock. > Tim Fisher Ore-Rock-On and Pacific Fishery Biologists WWW Sites mailto:Tim@OreRockOn.com WWW: http://OreRockOn.com See naked fish and rocks! - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 20 Jul 1998 08:12:40 -0700 From: Tim Fisher Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Groups to look at 'cept they aren't IBD, they're Zacks, which are very generic. E.g. software has hundreds of companies, so there is no med. software, same with Business Services vs. staffing... At 06:50 AM 7/20/98 , you wrote: >On Sun, 19 Jul 1998 21:12:04 -0500, you wrote: > >:Thanks Al, I have a little problem sending them $35.00 when I subscribe to >:DG online, you would think it would be in that, but no, can't be that easy. >: >: >:joe >:jo@koyote.com >:http://www.koyote.com/users/jo >: >: >It may not be what you want, but it IS free: > >Yahoo Finance (home page = http://quote.yahoo.com/?u), on left side of >screen, 2nd heading is "Reference". Under this, click "Research by >Industry". This leads you to lists of stocks and symbols and the usual >Yahoo research links. > >Dan >musicant@autobahn.org > > > >- > Tim Fisher Ore-Rock-On and Pacific Fishery Biologists WWW Sites mailto:Tim@OreRockOn.com WWW: http://OreRockOn.com See naked fish and rocks! - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 20 Jul 1998 08:14:45 -0700 (PDT) From: dbphoenix Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Groups to look at <> If everyone were to contribute only one group in the way Tannis (who provided three) did, you'd all have a reasonably complete spreadsheet of these stocks within a week, and it wouldn't cost you a cent. - --Db _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 20 Jul 1998 08:07:59 -0700 (PDT) From: dbphoenix Subject: [CANSLIM] Stops and Sell Strategies Given the discussion on stops and sell strategies and the ongoing interest in the subject, I asked Ian Woodward if I could reproduce a response he made on his bulletin board to a series of questions posed by someone earlier this Spring. I've edited it and added notes in brackets to help explain concepts which may be unfamiliar. Hope it is of help. - --Db ............................. . . . there is no such thing as a complete stop strategy that covers all situations. From my vantage point, it depends upon: A. Which of the three modes you are working in - [short-term, intermediate-term, long-term]. B. In which stage of the market you are considering the sell. For the practical purpose of this particular note, I refer the readers of this board to the "Ideal General Model for HGS Portfolios" chart I put up the other night in response to a question under the title of "When to use What?" [Note: This has been uploaded to the group file-- ftp://ftp.xmission.com/pub/users/m/mcjathan/canslim/IAN-MDL.gif] Short-Term Traders - So let me use the above perspectives to steer you through the maze of what to apply when. Most of the points below do not apply to short-term traders, whose primary objective is to garner profits in a minimum of time--a matter of moments to a few days at most. They protect not only capital, but also profits, to tight specs. So let me dispense with that category by simply saying that given their short-term orientation, I doubt that they would ever set a trailing stop as loose as 15%. . . . Those who try to cover the lot by wearing three hats, i.e., being short-term trader, intermediate-term [trader] and long-term [investor], learn to modulate between the three dependent on how much wind they believe they have at their backs and the point in time at which they are considering exiting. I am primarily concerned with the latter two types, and believe that most should work with the above in mind, or they will lose out on the longer-term gains of true leaders that deliver the [goods] with patience over longer spells. First let's look at some of the general statements I make in my Workshops, since I try to keep those points down to a simple list of no more than 10 items to cover the whole array of situations of the "Warning Signs" of when to sell: 1. When Rockets Turn to Rocks at Launch - Here is where your first point fits, where the golden ground rule is to limit losses to 7 to 10%. You have also heard me speak to the fact that I do not like to buy a stock more than 10% from its pivot point and 15% from its 50 Day MA. These points go hand-in-glove. A stock at launch should usually give one a minimum of 15% up as a decent lift off. It invariably retraces to seek its breakout point and a healthy stock always stops short of breaking into the base. In fact that is the point for a second chance to add to one's position. Many would improve their win:loss ratio by just mastering this paragraph, as so many find they get stopped out by being shaken out or scared out, by their initial point of entry being too high from these natural support points. The axiom is "You buy right, you sell right". 2. When Rockets are Extended - It is at this stage that we have at least three different yardsticks to measure the degree of extension and to establish the odds of a second leg or not. Get into the habit of thinking Market, Group and Stock in that order to help you make the call: a. The Market: The Nasdaq would be at its mid-jump level of 25%. Understand that the 40% high jump level for the combined 17 day + 50 day + 200 day extension from the Nasdaq Index occurs only every two years on average, so 25% is the more common intermediate stage [Note: the High Jump is the sum of the percentage differences between the high and the 17, 50 and 200d MAs]. b. The leading HGS Industry Groups: The likes of an Iandex98 [Note: a surrogate index of leading stocks] which itself would for sure be 25% up from its 50-day MA and certainly above its 17-day MA. c. The stock itself: If a leader, for sure it would have either BSD or Rust [Note: see following]. At the first leg up, the more likely is BSD at 30% up from the 50-day MA and 70% up from the 200-day MA. Rust is 50% and 100% up, respectively. [Note: In other words, "BSD" is 130/50 and/or 170/200 and "Rust" is 150/50 and/or 200/200. If the 50d were 60, BSD would be 78 and Rust would be 90. If the 200 were 30, BSD would be 51 and Rust would be 60.] Next, to understand more fully the odds of progressing to the next leg, we must decide whether we are in leg 1, 2 or 3. . . . Now, refer to the Ideal Model diagram mentioned above. If you were on leg one with Y2K stocks . . . or Iandex98 stocks back in late Jan/early Feb, you would realize these stocks were the leaders. As such they would deliver good gains and were the type of stocks to expect to take at least a second leg after the first minor correction of 6% in the Nasdaq that occurred around 1750 [Note: March 2-5]. That was the point at which you might have the courage to ride through the 15% to 20% inevitable correction in leading stocks and ride the second leg. It is at this point where there are three alternative tactics open to the short, and more so, the intermediate-term player: 1. Keep tight stops, and take the profits off on a break of the 9 or 17-day MA. It's the bird in the hand vs. two in the bush syndrome we have often discussed. But, but, but....you must learn the discipline of coming right back into the same stocks for the second-leg--and potentially third-leg--run. a. You must make the decision early as to whether you will sell into the BSD or not. No point in vacillating. The prudent alternative is to take half off. There is no policy which I have [that would] automatically take the money off at this stage. It is purely a personal decision based on your risk:reward profile. . . . b. With climax runs on RUST candidates which have announced splits, the decision is easy. Sell into the top of the run, and then worry about two in the bush at a later date. . . . But again, come back in when the all-clear has been sounded, when we are on leg 1 or transitioning to leg 2. In either case, If it were the late stages of leg two, you go back to the discipline of evaluating the extension and raggedness of the Nasdaq and the Iandex98 first, then make your call on the stock. Of course, at this stage, you are far more inclined to take it off, period. . . . 2. Open up stops to take a 15% drop, realizing that the risk is it may fizzle. Here is the only time that the short to intermediate-term player opens up stops to ride through the correction on the first leg in hopes of the bigger gains to come. Short of taking the stock off at the top of the first leg's run, the reason you take the gamble is that the odds for the Nadsaq to have at least a second leg are high. Recall that the Base Low was 1465, so that 1750 was only 19.5% up from that point and the odds high that a second leg was in the cards. After all, per our discussion of last Saturday, the first two legs are where one makes all the money in the core drive of the Market and where its underlying leaders deliver major gains. The transition from leg 1 to leg 2 is the stage which separates the intermediate-term [trader] from the trigger-happy short-term trader unless both have learned that they sell into the correction on a short fuse, and then immediately re-enter most often at a bounce off the 17-day MA, and sometimes at the 50-day MA. . . . 3. Add to your position on the pullback or buy into the leaders you missed after the correction on the first leg. That point in time was early March, when the Nasdaq came back down to 1700, and you take the second leg run to 1930. . . . To answer your other questions: 1. I ALWAYS look for moving averages as being good stops, and also for being good re-entry points. . . . 2. You are mistaken on my suggesting waiting until the 50 day MA for an exit point, particularly on . . . stocks that are 30% or more up from it. As you correctly say that would give up too much profit. What I do say is that after a long run when the Nasdaq and leading industries are usually in the process of rotating out for a decent clean-out, an extended stock going down through the 50 day MA with >200% average daily volume is giving you a strong warning sign that the stock is on its last legs, at least for that round after a long upward leg. Invariably, the stock at this stage is well past a fourth-stage breakout and a long way up from its recent base low. You must think [of the] several stages of BSD and/or Rust that the stock has gone through when this usually happens. It is signalling it has had enough and is due for a full clean-out. On a Mattress-Stuffer where I have been in for a long while, it is time for serious consideration to lighten up or exit after it breaks the 50-day MA, given all the other mumbo-jumbo. But here again it all depends on the chart pattern. Re-read item "1" above. The message is that the whole game of Monopoly in managing stock profits revolves around the 50-day MA. It is either a safe haven in a storm if it can hold there, a point of entry after basing or after a knee-jerk reaction where it bounces off support, or a danger sign when the stock and the market are being trashed. By contrast, the 17-day MA determines true leadership to the upside and early quick action to the downside. It separates the leaders from the laggards. 3. Sure, I always look at Chaikin [Chaikin Money Flow, 21 and 14-day periods], OBV, P-Vol and N-Vol [positive and negative volume], Acc/Dist [what BigCharts calls "money flow"], U/D and such like. But you can drive yourself insane with checking and rechecking every single oscillator or indicator under the sun. I trot out the newspaper and put a lot more emphasis on A to E for Acc/Dist, and all the other [stuff] I have taught you as routine . . .. 4. Ideally, at the earlier stages of one's investing habits, the more robotic one becomes, the better. With time, the experience takes over and it becomes more a blend of feel, experience and rules. However, if you break too many of the obvious ones, you have to go back to school and learn how to get the kinks out of your game. 5. Fundamentals are the key to what to buy; the technicals help substantially in making that decision, but more so when to buy and when to sell. As long as the fundies are solid going in, which is a given with HGS, I make my calls primarily on the technicals. For sure, downward revisions in next qtr's earnings estimates are always a red flag and are invariably quickly reflected in the technicals. However, downward revisions in buy, sell or hold announcements by analysts purely because the stock is extended often offer an opportunity for small-cap investors to get into a stock or buy more after the quick knee-jerk that lasts a day or two or three or four--as long as the market dynamics are still intact, especially on a leg-one situation. In summary, use the framework of the Ideal Model and think "legs". On fresh first legs after a major correction, give the stock some room. At the late stages, tighten up the stops and take the bird in the hand. _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - - ------------------------------ End of canslim-digest V2 #331 ***************************** To unsubscribe to canslim-digest, send an email to "majordomo@xmission.com" with "unsubscribe canslim-digest" in the body of the message. For information on digests or retrieving files and old messages send "help" to the same address. Do not use quotes in your message.