From: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com (canslim-digest) To: canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Subject: canslim-digest V2 #336 Reply-To: canslim Sender: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Errors-To: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Precedence: bulk X-No-Archive: yes canslim-digest Thursday, July 23 1998 Volume 02 : Number 336 In this issue: Re: [CANSLIM] Down we go, how far nobody knows? Re: [CANSLIM] Observations CDWC, SYMX, DELL, etc. Re: [CANSLIM] "M" Re: [CANSLIM] DELL Re: [CANSLIM] Down we go, how far nobody knows? Re: [CANSLIM] IBD Groups Joe Re: [CANSLIM] Down we go, how far nobody knows? Re: [CANSLIM] "M" Re: [CANSLIM] IBD Groups Joe [none] Re: [CANSLIM] SLOT etc. Re: [CANSLIM] SLOT etc. Re: [CANSLIM] IBD Groups Joe [CANSLIM] CPWR Re: [CANSLIM] IBD Groups Joe Re: [CANSLIM] "M" [CANSLIM] Down we go Re: [CANSLIM] "M" Re: [CANSLIM] IBD Groups Joe [CANSLIM] "M" Re: [CANSLIM] IBD Groups Joe Re: [CANSLIM] IBD Groups Joe Re: [CANSLIM] "M" [CANSLIM] A couple to check out Re: [CANSLIM] Down we go, how far nobody knows? [CANSLIM] Re: another charting site ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Date: Wed, 22 Jul 1998 15:56:48 GMT From: musicant@autobahn.org (Dan Musicant) Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Down we go, how far nobody knows? On Wed, 22 Jul 1998 11:00:37 -0400, you wrote: :Hi everyone, : :What is your take on the latest market action. : :Peter Newell : My take is this: Mr. Greenspan twitches his finger and the dominoes fall, the bomb detonates, the 8.6 is cut loose. Whatever you call it, any threat of rate hikes from this man, if thought to be more than a bluff, is taken quite seriously.=20 I should have been better prepared for this possibility, but turned my back yesterday long enough to have 1/3 of my profits on DELL wiped out. I pulled the plug anyway.=20 Shorts anyone? Candidates? Dan musicant@autobahn.org - - ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 22 Jul 1998 18:00:31 +0200 From: Johan Van Houtven Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Observations CDWC, SYMX, DELL, etc. At 08:33 AM 22-07-98 -0700, you wrote: >As far as DELL >goes, root for 102. That would be a good entry point. > >--Db I'll place my bet too, if you will allow me: I think you will be lucky to see DELL in the 104 - 105 area. If it goes to 102, I'll be delighted. (My time frame is today/tommorow.) Johan Van Houtven / CLICK! N.V. - - ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 22 Jul 1998 12:00:49 -0400 From: Craig Griffin Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] "M" Nice post - thanks Johan. At 05:50 PM 7/22/98 +0200, you wrote: >...(snip)... So I'm afraid that they won't help me a lot this time, >because when this mini pullback is over we will have shaken out a lot of >the weaker holders. Then we can continue upward to at least the 2144 level >on the NAZ. > >How's that for (stupid) crystal ball gazing noise? Exactly what it is, of course ;), but somewhat useful for perspective. To shake out those "weak" holders, we probably need to go down a bit more over the next couple of weeks (imhO), after maybe a bounce for brief re-assurance. How's that for more (stupid) noise? ;) I might just as well have said, "look out bear market beginning" because who knows? As you say, "day by day" is the only way to go. > >As WON says: You got to be able to bent like a straw in the wind. (Or >something like that.) - - ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 22 Jul 1998 09:09:36 -0700 (PDT) From: dbphoenix Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] DELL <> This is an important difference in the way short-term and intermediate-term investors view the behavior of stocks, and the reason why I offered that post the other day about stops and sell strategies. Typically, a strong high-flyer like DELL will correct 15% and/or to its 17d MA. In this case, they are within a point or so of each other. An intermediate-term trader would allow it the room to fall to that level, watch the volume carefully, and be prepared to sell if that level looked to be in any danger of collapsing. BUT. He would also be prepared to buy back immediately if the stock looked to recover quickly. A longer-term trader might ignore all this and wait for the 50, using the 17 as an opportunity to buy more if the stock did in fact bounce and resume its advance. As far as SLOT goes, the correction there presented an excellent buying opportunity if one viewed the correction purely as an overreaction to an event which had (in the opinion of the investor) nothing to do with the fundamentals of the company (a similar situation may have arisen this morning when PSFT fell to 40 for no particularly good reason). One's reaction to such an event would have less to do with the stock than with the timeframe of the investor. And BTW, I'm not trying to characterize you as short-term or intermediate or whatever. These two stocks just happen to be good examples for highlighting the differences in perception. - --Db _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - - ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 22 Jul 1998 09:27:07 -0700 (PDT) From: dbphoenix Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Down we go, how far nobody knows? <<(Doesn't O'Neil say the leaders crack last? or is it the other way around?) That makes me a bit learly of DELL's weakness (although it is due a rest, so we shall see).>> Depends on what they're leading. If the advance is broad-based, expect the leaders to crack first. However, this advance has been narrow for quite some time. Since so many stocks never really participated in the first place, one can't really say that the leaders are cracking "first", only that they may be tired of pulling the wagon all by themselves. This doesn't mean, however, that they won't get a second wind, pull the wagon out of this latest mudhole, and keep on trucking. <> This is where we part company. I find O'N's selling rules far too complicated, particularly for newbies. Focusing on the chart can give one a much better picture of what's happening than by trying to come up with a coherent sell strategy based on HTMMIS. And, as you say, deciding ahead of time just what your timeframe will make a lot of these decisions unnecessary. The post I made with regard to stops and sell strategies should be of some help in this regard. - --Db _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - - ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 22 Jul 1998 09:29:27 -0700 From: "Joe Barger" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] IBD Groups Joe >You've obviously done much group work and are good at it. Yield-wise, >have you noticed better returns? I guess the question I'm asking >you, is it a better way of investing or a different way of investing? >TM > > I've only been actively investing for about a year, so whatever I say needs to be viewed in that light. I take a two tiered approach: "top down" and "bottom up". This all assumes "M" is OK. In the bottom up approach I develop a list of "likely candidate stocks" and scan them using criteria very similar to what Db and others have been discussing (MACD/Stoch, EMA's, etc) to identify stocks from the list for more careful research. The likely candidate list comes from several sources each week: the Ranford site of select stocks, a list of high ERG stocks from the Delphi site, "box7" stocks from the Delphi site, HGS stocks derived from a telescan search and posted here on the CANSLIM list, a list culled from DG posted on the Delphi site, the results of a my own CANSLIM scan of the QP2 database, and anything else I think may be interesting. This list should consist of stocks with reasonable fundamental characteristics. The scans identify stocks from the list that may be ready to pop and deserve more research. The stocks that survive this process go on a watch list and I try to find a good entry point. Top down involves identifying strong industry groups and the leaders (or potential leaders) within each group. That's what I developed the list of IBD groups for. It is important to review the members of each group to make sure they meet whatever criteria you deem appropriate (min. price, min. ADV, etc.). As Db has stated, the deadwood in a group can weigh down the performance of the leaders to the point an otherwise healthy group may look sick. To help identify strong groups I use scans similar to the bottom up approach as well as just flipping through the charts to get a feel for what sectors are strong and weak. Once a strong group is identified, I look at the charts within the group and eliminate the extended stocks, etc. until I run out of stocks or identify one or more to research further. If any survive, they go on the watch list. Which approach is better? I haven't been at it long enough to say, but I would guess it depends on several factors including the state of the market, the tools available and the amount of time you have to fool with it. My gut feel is that the top down approach, done properly, should identify rotation into/out of specific groups quickly to allow specific stock entry/exit quicker. But either approach should yield enough good prospects to keep a CAMSLIMer busy and profitable. joe - - ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 22 Jul 1998 09:33:21 -0700 (PDT) From: dbphoenix Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Down we go, how far nobody knows? <> I did a scan for overextended stocks last night. Surprisingly, there weren't very many, which tells me that although the market may be overvalued, the angle of ascent for the vast majority of stocks has been fairly moderate. And, of course, many stocks haven't participated at all. After pulling up these stocks, I then checked the group chart for each. Most of them showed preliminary signs of rolling over, but not to the point of giving a clear short-signal. One, however, CVC, showed clear weakness, as did its group. Unfortunately I was unable to get into it this morning before it took its dive. I'm hoping that it will try to recover, at which point I'll see if I can borrom some shares to short. - --Db _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - - ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 22 Jul 1998 18:35:48 +0200 From: Johan Van Houtven Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] "M" At 12:00 PM 22-07-98 -0400, you wrote: >Nice post - thanks Johan. > >At 05:50 PM 7/22/98 +0200, you wrote: >>...(snip)... So I'm afraid that they won't help me a lot this time, >>because when this mini pullback is over we will have shaken out a lot of >>the weaker holders. Then we can continue upward to at least the 2144 level >>on the NAZ. >> >>How's that for (stupid) crystal ball gazing noise? > >Exactly what it is, of course ;), but somewhat useful for perspective. To >shake out those "weak" holders, we probably need to go down a bit more over >the next couple of weeks (imhO), after maybe a bounce for brief >re-assurance. How's that for more (stupid) noise? ;) So after the initial tsunami "let's go down fast" horror, you want them to experience the painful 'wear them out slowly' time factor. Indeed the ideal shake-out. }B^) BTW, MMs in low ADV stocks are having a field day. It's exciting and great fun to watch. >I might just as well >have said, "look out bear market beginning" because who knows? >As you say, "day by day" is the only way to go. And that is probably one of the few perspectives CANSLIMers shares with AA-ers. Johan Van Houtven / CLICK! N.V. - - ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 22 Jul 1998 10:00:13 -0700 (PDT) From: dbphoenix Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] IBD Groups Joe <> IMO, a top-down look is essential, not only for the short end but the long end as well. For one thing, if your stock is the only stock in its group that shows signs of becoming a leader, the odds are very much against its success unless at least a couple more join it (unless it's been assigned to the wrong group). Ditto if your stock has been strong and is beginning to show weakness (which is why, given two stocks that are identically over-extended and identically correcting, one will be a buying opportunity and one will be a no-questions-asked sell). The problem with a top-down approach is that your groups may not be constructed properly. This is a particular problem when using websites which use a limited number of groups. The bigger the group, the more difficult it is to spot activity, particularly the emergence of leaders. And there's little agreement amongst these sites as to what stocks go where. Therefore, if you're going to use IBD numbers for group strength and group rank and group speed and acceleration, take care to use IBD groups. Otherwise these numbers may have little application to what you're doing. A check against all this is to do a bottom-up scan as well, then look to see what the group charts of your selections look like. You may have found an emerging leader. You may have also found a fourth-tier stock which is getting ready to advance just as all the other stocks in the over-extended group ahead of it are getting ready to turn around and trample it in the dust. By scanning for stocks from both ends, you have much more confidence in your selections and can do a much better job of determining what your buy, sell and pyramiding strategies are going to be. - --Db _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - - ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 22 Jul 1998 10:24:56 -0700 (PDT) From: rolatzi Subject: [none] A quick review of WON's list of selling points. 1. If after a stocks price is extended from a proper base, its price closes for a larger increase than on any pervious up days, this move usually occurs at or very close to its peak. 2. The ultimate top may occur on the heaviest volume day since the beginning of the advance. 3. Sell if the advance gets so actve that the stock has a rapid price runup for 2 or 3 weeks. this is called climax (blow off) top activity. 4. Sell if it runs up on a stock split for one or two weeks (usually +25-30% and occasionally +50%). If a stock’s price is extended from its base and a split is anounce, in many instances the stock should be sold. 5. Big investors must sell when there are buyers to absorb their stock, consdier selling if it runs up and then good news or major publicity (cover article in Business Week e.g.). 6. New highs on decreased or poor volume indicate no demand for stock at that level and selling may soon overcome the stock. 7. After an advance, heavy volume without further upsdie price progress signals distribution. 8. Tops show arrows pointing down on the stock’s daily chart, in other words full retracements from days advance. 9. When it’s exciting and obvious that a stock is going higher, sell, because it is too late. 10. If a stock that has advanced rapidly is extended from its base and opens on a gap up in price, the advnace is probably near a peak. 11. Sell if the price breaks badly for several days and does not rally. 12. Consdier selling if a stock retraces its advance of several weeks. 13. When quarterly earnings increases slow materilally or earnings actually decline for two consecutive quarters, in most cases, sell. 14. Consider selling if there is no confirming price strength by another important member of the same group. 15. If you don’t sell while a stock is advancing sell on the way down from the peak. After the first break, some stocks may once pull back up in price. 16. After an 8% decline, determine if the advance is over or if a normal 8-12% correction is in progresas. You may occasionally if the decline from peak exceeds 12% or 15%. 17. If a stock already has made an extended advance and suddenlyt makes its greatest one-day price drop since the beginning of the move, consider selling, but only if confirmed by other signals. 18. When you see initial heavy selling near the top, the next recovery will either follow through weaker in volume, show poor price rocovery, or last a shorter umber of days. Sell on the second or third day of poor rally; it will be the last good chance to sell before trend lines and support areas are broken. 19. Sell if a stock closes the end of the week below a major long-term uptrand line or breaks a key price-support area on overwhelming volume. 20 The number of down days in price versus up days in price will change after a stock starts down. Look at volume plus charts. 21. Wait for a second confirmation of major changes in the general market and don’t buy back stocks you sold just because they can be bought cheaper. 22. Learn from you past mistakes. 23. Sell quickly before it becomes completely clear that a stock should be sold. Selling after it has borken an obvious support level could be a poor decision because the sotck could pull back after touching off stop orders and attracting short sellers. 24. Project the week when you expect captial gains selling who bought in volumer at the original breakout point from a base. 25. In a few cases, sell if a stock hits its upper channel line. Stocks surging above their upper channel lines should normally be sold. 26. Sell when your stock makes a new high off a third or gourth-stage base. 27. Sell on a new price high off a wide and loose, erratic chart price formation. 28. Sell on new highs if a stock has a weak base with much of the price work in the lower half of the base or below its 200-day moving average price line. 29. Sell, in most cases, if it breaks down on the largest weekly volume in its prior five years. 30. Some stocks can be sold when they are 70 to 100% above their 200-day MA. 31. After a prolonger upswing, if a stocks 200-day MA dturns down, consider selling. 32. Poor relative price strength can be a reason for selling, e.g. when RS drops below 70. Not selling 1. Be careful of selling on bad news or rumors, they are usually temporary ifluence. 2. Try to avoid selling on shakeouts (below major price-support areas) 3. Set your stop loss when you buy. If it increase 15% or more move the line up to less than 5% below the pivot point. 4. Once it is up 15% concentrate on the definite price where you will sell on the way up. 5. Give your purchase 13 weeks after purchase before you conclude that it hasn’t moved unless it hit your stop loss. 6. If it rises 20%, don’t every allow it drop into loss column. 7. Pay attention to the general market. Don’t initiate new purchases when the market averages are toping and beginning to reverse direction. 8. Don’t take profits during the first 8 weeks of a move unless the stock gets into serious trouble or is having a 2 or 3 week climax rapid runup on a stock split. 9. Stocks showing 20% profit in less than 8 weeks should be held throgh the 8 weeks unless they are of poor quality. 10. If you are holding a ldeader or one belonging to a leading group, hold until its weekly close is below its 10-week MA on increased colume. 11. Try to hold through the stocks first short-term correction once you already have a profit. _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - - ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 22 Jul 1998 10:23:24 -0700 From: Tim Fisher Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] SLOT etc. Again, I approach this from a CANSLIM perspective. From that POV, SLOT became un-buyable the day after the announcement and has only recently reached the point where an "N" (new high) might be noted. Otherwise nothing in the realm of "N" happened since then. Also the chart was not one that WON would recognize as being a type that is considered to be a base, although I am struggling with the narrow definition of "bases" in HTMMIS. Could not SLOT's and THRX's one-day (OR ANLT's month-long retreat) drops followed (yet to be seen in THRX's case) by a slow upticking to previous levels be considered a base of sorts? At 09:09 AM 7/22/98 , you wrote: ><thing >that killed SLOT, coupled with ill-timed and possibly illegal insider >selling (right before the announcement).>> > >This is an important difference in the way short-term and >intermediate-term investors view the behavior of stocks, and the >reason why I offered that post the other day about stops and sell >strategies. Typically, a strong high-flyer like DELL will correct 15% >and/or to its 17d MA. In this case, they are within a point or so of >each other. An intermediate-term trader would allow it the room to >fall to that level, watch the volume carefully, and be prepared to >sell if that level looked to be in any danger of collapsing. BUT. He >would also be prepared to buy back immediately if the stock looked to >recover quickly. A longer-term trader might ignore all this and wait >for the 50, using the 17 as an opportunity to buy more if the stock >did in fact bounce and resume its advance. > >As far as SLOT goes, the correction there presented an excellent >buying opportunity if one viewed the correction purely as an >overreaction to an event which had (in the opinion of the investor) >nothing to do with the fundamentals of the company (a similar >situation may have arisen this morning when PSFT fell to 40 for no >particularly good reason). One's reaction to such an event would have >less to do with the stock than with the timeframe of the investor. > >And BTW, I'm not trying to characterize you as short-term or >intermediate or whatever. These two stocks just happen to be good >examples for highlighting the differences in perception. > >--Db > Tim Fisher Ore-Rock-On and Pacific Fishery Biologists WWW Sites mailto:Tim@OreRockOn.com WWW: http://OreRockOn.com See naked fish and rocks! - - ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 22 Jul 1998 10:54:30 -0700 (PDT) From: dbphoenix Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] SLOT etc. <> True. O'N doesn't allow for bottom-fishing, except in the case of double-bottom patterns. <> I wouldn't stretch the definition that far. What can happen in these cases (most recently with AVEI) is that the stock slowly eats away at the overhead supply and reaches a new high without ever having formed what any of us would call a handle. In these cases, it's tough to find a place to enter. One possibility is to take a small position when the stock has retraced 50% of the drop (this applies only if you care about the stock to begin with). Sometimes this works and sometimes it doesn't. With CBSL it would not have. With AVEI it would. You have to be willing to back out if the stock begins to show new weakness. Generally you wait for the right pattern. But sometimes you're presented with what might be an opportunity to buy a stock that you'd really like to have for whatever reason, and you find that you have to go beyond the price fixe menu to the ala carte in order to come up with a workable strategy. There's a lot to be said, however, for a discipline which doesn't allow you to go beyond the most productive patterns, regardless of how much you want to own a particular stock. - --Db _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - - ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 22 Jul 1998 11:31:27 -0700 From: "Joe Barger" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] IBD Groups Joe >By scanning for stocks from both >ends, you have much more confidence in your selections and can do a >much better job of determining what your buy, sell and pyramiding >strategies are going to be. Agree with all your comments. I didn't mean to imply that checking the group charts isn't important for the bottom up approach. It's part of the "research" that is necessary after a stock shows up on a bottom up scan. Scanning from both ends is the "optimal" kind of approach I am attempting to create. My intention with the two approachs is to identify as many potential winners as possible. In the end, each stock that goes on the watch list will pass all the same criteria (fundamental and technical) that I deem appropriate. It takes time, and I'm still trying to decide how many IBD groups to concentrate on (117 is too many to keep up with and probably doesn't improve things much, perhaps a "supplemented" HGS group list is better, maybe just straight HGS). But the learning process is half the fun (making money is the other half). joe - - ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 22 Jul 1998 11:25:14 -0700 From: Tim Fisher Subject: [CANSLIM] CPWR I knew it! Had some cash too as of about 9:30. Oh well, hope somebody else took advantage of my post! RESEARCH SPOTLIGHTS: (All prices as of 1:05 p.m. ET) ** Warburg Dillon Read said it raised its rating on COMPUWARE CORP. (CPWR: 59-1/2, + 5-5/8) to a strong buy from a buy. Tim Fisher Ore-Rock-On and Pacific Fishery Biologists WWW Sites mailto:Tim@OreRockOn.com WWW: http://OreRockOn.com See naked fish and rocks! - - ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 22 Jul 1998 12:28:47 -0700 (PDT) From: dbphoenix Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] IBD Groups Joe <> You may find that you wind up coming back to the same stocks no matter which way you start. But it's always nice to have that confirmation. <> I follow the HGS groups on the revised list as well as the groups on the old list. This amounts to around 70 groups and is, I find, more than enough. I posted the revised HGS group list yesterday. If you don't have the old list, it's as follows: AUTO/TRUCK -ORIGINAL EQP AUTO/TRUCK -REPLACE PRTS BLDG -MOBILE/MFG & RV BLDG -RESIDENT/COMMRCL COMML SVCS - MISC COMML SVCS -SECURITY/SFTY COMPUTER -GRAPHICS COMPUTER -INTEGRATED SYST COMPUTER -LOCAL NETWORKS COMPUTER -MAINFRAMES COMPUTER -MEMORY DEVICES COMPUTER -MINI/MICRO COMPUTER -OPTICAL RECOGTN COMPUTER -PERIPHERAL EQ COMPUTER -SERVICES COMPUTER -SOFTWARE (this, of course, has been replaced by the subgroups I posted yesterday) ELEC -LASER SYS/COMPONENT ELEC -MEASRNG INSTRUMENTS ELEC -MISC COMPONENTS ELEC -PARTS DISTRIBUTORS ELEC PRODUCTS -MISC ELEC -SEMICONDUCTOR EQUIP ELEC -SEMICONDUCTOR MFG ELECTRICAL-CONNECTORS ELECTRICAL-CONTROL INSTR ELECTRICAL-EQUIPMENT FINANCE -CONSUMER LOANS FINANCE -INVESTMENT BKRS FINANCE -SAVINGS & LOAN LEISURE -GAMING LEISURE -HOTELS & MOTELS LEISURE -PRODUCTS LEISURE -TOYS/GAMES/HOBBY MEDICAL -BIOMED/GENETICS MEDICAL -ETHICAL DRUGS MEDICAL -GENERIC DRUGS MEDICAL -HLTH MAINT ORG MEDICAL -HOSPITALS MEDICAL -INSTRUMENTS MEDICAL -NURSING HOMES MEDICAL -OUTPNT/HM CARE MEDICAL -PRODUCTS MEDICAL/DENTAL-SUPPLIES RETAIL -APPAREL/SHOE RETAIL -CONSUMER ELECT RETAIL -DISCOUNT & VARIETY RETAIL -HOME FURNISHINGS RETAIL -MAIL ORDER&DIRECT RETAIL -RESTAURANTS RETAIL/WHLSE COMPUTERS TELECOMMUNICATIONS CELLR TELECOMMUNICATIONS EQUIP TELECOMMUNICATIONS SVCS TEXTILE -APPAREL MFG _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - - ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 22 Jul 1998 22:16:41 +0200 From: Johan Van Houtven Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] "M" I wrote: >For trading purposes I've set a minimum pullback on the NAZ to the >1950/1960 area. Next support area after that @ 1930. Low for the day was: 1950.77. Today: 980722 we closed @1969.75. Down -0.47% compared to yesterday's close. High: 1980.24 Low: 1950.77. Wide spread. Volume of 811298402 shares. That is 5.02% less than yesterday. But still 5.33% higher than ADV(30). Just the facts this time. :) Johan Van Houtven / CLICK! N.V. - - ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 22 Jul 1998 15:56:16 -0400 From: Jeffry White <"postwhit@sover.net"@sover.net> Subject: [CANSLIM] Down we go > Hi everyone, > > What is your take on the latest market action. > > Peter Newell > > Peter, Re-read page 50 of HTMMIS, 2d Ed. on failed rally attempts. With that information in mind, a possibility might be as follows: We're likely to see a day or three more to the downside, the last day of which will create a new intraday low off the top we had yesterday, closing unchanged to higher on the day on higher daily volume the prior day's trade. Then, we move up again. That's when one should watch for either a "failed rally attempt" or "follow through" action like we look for off a low after a significant downtrend. FWIW, I disagree, BTW, with Johan's disintersted approach to Thursday's IBD sentiment report. Sentiment is critical, and tomorrow's report could show us new 5 year marks, or back off a bit. Not much interested in technical price targets for the indices, although I can read a chart just like anyone else, and things do seem to bounce or pause just where they "should". However, they create a false sense of hope when trying to determine "M", I think. And, finally, I disagree with "crystal ball" notions about the Chapter 7 indicators for market direction. You just gotta believe... Do ya beleeeeeve? Jeffry - - ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 22 Jul 1998 22:48:26 +0200 From: Johan Van Houtven Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] "M" I wrote: >Volume of 811298402 shares. That is 5.02% less than yesterday. >But still 5.33% higher than ADV(30). Volume keeps changing at the NASDAQ site after the close. Volume now is 828521752 shares. That is 3.01% less than yesterday. But still 7.57% higher than ADV(30). Johan Van Houtven / CLICK! N.V. - - ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 22 Jul 1998 14:45:09 -0700 From: "Joe Barger" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] IBD Groups Joe >> > >I follow the HGS groups on the revised list as well as the groups on >the old list. This amounts to around 70 groups and is, I find, more >than enough. I posted the revised HGS group list yesterday. If you >don't have the old list, it's as follows: > > Thanks for the list. That should save some work without missing too much. Another idea I was considering to save time is to simply use the stocks contained in the IBD HGS groups as the input to the bottom up scan rather than build the list from the sources I listed. The advantage is I wouldn't have to fool around getting and managing yet another list of stocks. The disadvantage is that most of the stocks that I gleen from the sources listed are strong CANSLIM stocks that may not be included in the HGS groups (but may still be in a strong group). Since the HGS stock groups should be (are?) the best performing groups and, therefore the stocks therein should also be among the strongest, I'll bet there is considerable overlap in the two lists. I guess it turns into a trade between the number of additional stocks turned up versus the time and effort needed to maintain the separate list of stocks. It seems to me that if I can't find worthy stocks from the best performing stocks in the best performing groups, somethings wrong and I don't want to be in the market anyway. joe - - ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 22 Jul 1998 18:10:24 -0400 From: Jeffry White <"postwhit@sover.net"@sover.net> Subject: [CANSLIM] "M" > Volume now is 828521752 shares. > > That is 3.01% less than yesterday. But still 7.57% higher than ADV(30). > > > > Johan Van Houtven / CLICK! N.V. > Hello Johan. What significance are you ascribing to the lower daily, but higher than ADV volume numbers? Jeffry - - ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 22 Jul 1998 16:13:11 -0700 (PDT) From: dbphoenix Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] IBD Groups Joe <> Depends also on what you want to do with your life. If you're the type who spends his Christmas going to every store within a 100-mile radius looking for the lowest possible price on little red wagons, you're probably also the type who spends every weeknight and all weekend scanning every column and every datapoint in IBD so that you won't miss a single thing. OTOH, if you're the type who needs only 6 or 8 or 10 stocks and is perfectly happy to stop when he has them and then go do something else, one list is more than enough. The percentage of CS stocks which you'll find outside the HGS groups is tiny, and who cares? Unless, as I said, it's for some reason important to you to find every single candidate. Of course, by the time you've done all the necessary research to find every single candidate, the best ones will have become overextended. So you takes your pick between leave no stone unturned and enough is enough. - --Db _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - - ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 22 Jul 1998 16:50:17 -0700 From: "Joe Barger" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] IBD Groups Joe >So you takes your pick between leave no stone unturned and enough is >enough. > >--Db > I'm an engineer....what can I say. But in this case enough is enough. Between a career, wife, kids and other interests, time is precious. So I'll take the extra time and "invest it" elsewhere.....thanks. joe - - ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 23 Jul 1998 02:55:33 +0200 From: Johan Van Houtven Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] "M" At 06:10 PM 22-07-98 -0400, you wrote: >What significance are you ascribing to the lower daily, but higher than >ADV volume numbers? Jeffry, ADV is one of the parameters I'm looking at to see if I can find a significant relationship between for example volume that is higher than ADV(30) and intraday spread or % difference of close with previous close . I'm also trying to correlate advancers, decliners, new-high, new low with bottoming and topping action. In particular I'm looking for useful combinations of some of these parameters that might tell me something. Is ADV(30) useful? From a viewpoint of having the computer automatically putting out a report it might be (not decided yet). Take for example last April. Remember the high (1931.83) the NAZ put in on April 22? Vol was 1026054200. Extremely high, but only 9.32% higher than the previous day. It was however 30.09% higher than ADV(30). Now, you and me knew that over a billion shares traded was very high. But how is a computer to know that? ADV(30) seems to be useful here. Furthermore there seems to be a correlation between having volume of more than 40% higher than ADV(30) on two distrubution days or neighbouring days and a top in the NAZ occuring a few days later or on those days. Anyway, it is way to early for me to conclude I've found anything useful. I don't expect to find anything extraordinarily useful. Worst thing that can happen is that I'll know what the tops and bottoms of the last 2 years looked liked by hard. When I'm finished with the study, I'll report back to the group. Re: sentiment I expect sentiment to be very high (assuming it takes them a few days to get their data together before reporting it). Everyone (chat groups on www.techstocks.com and Yahoo) was patting themselves on the back last week, beginning this week. So that was increasingly bearish. But with the action of the last two days, it is likely that some of those bulls are turning bearish. Which is bullish. That is why I said I do not care very much about the sentiment numbers this Thursday. Didn't mean to offend anyone with that remark. (As you might remember, I normally care a great deal about sentiment numbers.) Geez, it's already 2:54 AM here. Think I'll call it a day now. :) Have fun, Johan Van Houtven / CLICK! N.V. - - ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 22 Jul 1998 21:53:16 -0600 From: "Dan Sutton" Subject: [CANSLIM] A couple to check out A couple of stocks on the HGS list that broke above their 10 day average today: MNMD Last price $49 3/8 volume was 194% of 30 day average Telescan shows 40% institutionally owned UVSGA Last price $33 3/4 volume was 102% of 30 day average Telescan shows 36% institutionally owned - - ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 22 Jul 1998 22:34:04 -0700 (PDT) From: fai poon Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Down we go, how far nobody knows? Hold is my opinion. I did not see any down side on the market. Hey, this is daniel. The path to good fortune is education. fp888@Yahoo.com From CIS135A daniel On Wed, 22 Jul 1998, Peter Newell wrote: > Hi everyone, > > What is your take on the latest market action. > > Peter Newell > > > - > > - - ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 23 Jul 1998 03:22:12 -0700 (PDT) From: Tannis Malone Subject: [CANSLIM] Re: another charting site http://askresearch.com/ TM _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - - ------------------------------ End of canslim-digest V2 #336 ***************************** To unsubscribe to canslim-digest, send an email to "majordomo@xmission.com" with "unsubscribe canslim-digest" in the body of the message. For information on digests or retrieving files and old messages send "help" to the same address. Do not use quotes in your message.