From: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com (canslim-digest) To: canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Subject: canslim-digest V2 #3379 Reply-To: canslim Sender: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Errors-To: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Precedence: bulk Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable X-No-Archive: yes canslim-digest Wednesday, June 18 2003 Volume 02 : Number 3379 In this issue: RE: [CANSLIM] TSCO Re: [CANSLIM] TSCO [CANSLIM] Re: [Canslim] Re: Katherine Re: [CANSLIM] TSCO Fw: [CANSLIM] IBD Top 100 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Date: Wed, 18 Jun 2003 17:13:17 -0400 From: "John Solarno" Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] TSCO Katherine: Has anybody told you recently that you are absolutely, totally AWESOME? I was just sorting through a passel of email and wondering how I was = going to respond to it all, and then I saw your message and thought, "Look at = this woman. Day after day after day, she takes time out of whatever she's = doing to write out cogent, detailed replies to people, most of whom are = complete strangers." =20 If someone printed out all of your emails over the years and stacked = them up, I'm sure the pages would exceed all of the Harry Potter books = combined!=20 There are obviously many people who contribute to this board, but I = thought I would take a moment and make sure that one of them (you!) was told = THANK YOU for being so consistently generous with your time and knowledge. John Solarno=20 - -----Original Message----- From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com] On Behalf Of Katherine Malm Sent: Wednesday, June 18, 2003 8:56 AM To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] TSCO Hi Harold, In the context of the discussion, a stock that is *already* rising from = a previous consolidation affords no low-risk entry point. With TSCO, an = entry here puts you at risk of sitting out another pullback to the previous logical area of support. In this case, that can be all the way back to = the previous pivot, slightly below (as that wide bar during the last = pullback just after the last BO suggests), or somewhere around the 50dMA. The = slight wedging action in recent weeks suggests that the probability of a = pullback is very high, and particularly if one uses an 8% stop loss, the = probability of being shaken out is therefore very high. If one really likes this stock, then it's a lot smarter to wait for a benign pullback and take your chances that it begins to move up again = from the pullback, as your odds of making money on the trade are considerably higher. This is precisely what Fred has done for a couple of years, purchasing on pullbacks and selling TSCO many times since 12/01. I think the lesson with something like TSCO is that the 8% stop loss is = a protective mechanism for entry at the ideal buy point (a strong BO on = volume from a base), as the pullback here tends not to be much deeper if the BO = is strong. However, using an 8% stop when entering an extended stock is = just and excuse to loose 8%. There are plenty of good stocks out there, but = one can purcase "a very good stock" and still lose their shirt 8% at a time. When a stock is extended, the 8% stop has no logic, because the next = logical area of support is generally much, much lower than 8% below the extended entry. Even if one were to set a stop well below the 8% and back at = logical support, then the risk is that the stock not only pulls back but *fails* outright, falling back into the base. At that point, a stop would force = you out at a much bigger loss than 8%. Oooh...makes me shiver to think about = it. Katherine - -----Original Message----- From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Harold Josephson Sent: Wednesday, June 18, 2003 1:09 AM To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] TSCO Hi Katherine, What do you conclude from this chart? Thanks Harold - -----Original Message----- From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com] On Behalf Of Katherine Malm Sent: Monday, June 16, 2003 11:07 AM To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] TSCO Hi Treb, Here's the chart as I see it: http://www.cwhcharts.com/katherine/TSCO061603.JPG Katherine - -----Original Message----- From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Treb Courie Sent: Monday, June 16, 2003 11:48 AM To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Subject: [CANSLIM] TSCO Is TSCO breaking out today? It's got good fundamentals and is on my = watch list. However, I think I'm going to stay off of it--it looks to me like = it broke out of a sloppy handle on 2 June and is too extended now. Regards, Treb - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 18 Jun 2003 18:11:58 EDT From: Chazmoore@aol.com Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] TSCO - --part1_1c2.b525d2c.2c223dae_boundary Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII" Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit Excellent comments John. I agree with you completely. We are very lucky to have Katherine as a mentor. Charley - --part1_1c2.b525d2c.2c223dae_boundary Content-Type: text/html; charset="US-ASCII" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Excellent comments John.=20= I agree with you completely. We are very lucky to have Katherine as a mentor= .
Charley - --part1_1c2.b525d2c.2c223dae_boundary-- - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 18 Jun 2003 17:14:39 -0500 From: "Rich W" Subject: [CANSLIM] Re: [Canslim] Re: Katherine I will 2nd this, as Katherine is now one, who I save her answers, to all the Questions this groups comes up with, makes a great resource to go back to. From Rich W ST Louis Stock Analysis Group Coordinator - ----- Original Message ----- From: "John Solarno" To: Sent: Wednesday, June 18, 2003 4:13 PM Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] TSCO Katherine: Has anybody told you recently that you are absolutely, totally AWESOME? I was just sorting through a passel of email and wondering how I was going to respond to it all, and then I saw your message and thought, "Look at this woman. Day after day after day, she takes time out of whatever she's doing to write out cogent, detailed replies to people, most of whom are complete strangers." If someone printed out all of your emails over the years and stacked them up, I'm sure the pages would exceed all of the Harry Potter books combined! There are obviously many people who contribute to this board, but I thought I would take a moment and make sure that one of them (you!) was told THANK YOU for being so consistently generous with your time and knowledge. John Solarno - -----Original Message----- From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com] On Behalf Of Katherine Malm Sent: Wednesday, June 18, 2003 8:56 AM To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] TSCO Hi Harold, In the context of the discussion, a stock that is *already* rising from a previous consolidation affords no low-risk entry point. With TSCO, an entry here puts you at risk of sitting out another pullback to the previous logical area of support. In this case, that can be all the way back to the previous pivot, slightly below (as that wide bar during the last pullback just after the last BO suggests), or somewhere around the 50dMA. The slight wedging action in recent weeks suggests that the probability of a pullback is very high, and particularly if one uses an 8% stop loss, the probability of being shaken out is therefore very high. If one really likes this stock, then it's a lot smarter to wait for a benign pullback and take your chances that it begins to move up again from the pullback, as your odds of making money on the trade are considerably higher. This is precisely what Fred has done for a couple of years, purchasing on pullbacks and selling TSCO many times since 12/01. I think the lesson with something like TSCO is that the 8% stop loss is a protective mechanism for entry at the ideal buy point (a strong BO on volume from a base), as the pullback here tends not to be much deeper if the BO is strong. However, using an 8% stop when entering an extended stock is just and excuse to loose 8%. There are plenty of good stocks out there, but one can purcase "a very good stock" and still lose their shirt 8% at a time. When a stock is extended, the 8% stop has no logic, because the next logical area of support is generally much, much lower than 8% below the extended entry. Even if one were to set a stop well below the 8% and back at logical support, then the risk is that the stock not only pulls back but *fails* outright, falling back into the base. At that point, a stop would force you out at a much bigger loss than 8%. Oooh...makes me shiver to think about it. Katherine - -----Original Message----- From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Harold Josephson Sent: Wednesday, June 18, 2003 1:09 AM To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] TSCO Hi Katherine, What do you conclude from this chart? Thanks Harold - -----Original Message----- From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com] On Behalf Of Katherine Malm Sent: Monday, June 16, 2003 11:07 AM To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] TSCO Hi Treb, Here's the chart as I see it: http://www.cwhcharts.com/katherine/TSCO061603.JPG Katherine - -----Original Message----- From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Treb Courie Sent: Monday, June 16, 2003 11:48 AM To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Subject: [CANSLIM] TSCO Is TSCO breaking out today? It's got good fundamentals and is on my watch list. However, I think I'm going to stay off of it--it looks to me like it broke out of a sloppy handle on 2 June and is too extended now. Regards, Treb - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 18 Jun 2003 20:07:10 -0500 From: "alicia lensing" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] TSCO John, I am in total agreement with your salute to Katherine. She is a real jewel! Alicia - ----- Original Message ----- From: "John Solarno" To: Sent: Wednesday, June 18, 2003 4:13 PM Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] TSCO Katherine: Has anybody told you recently that you are absolutely, totally AWESOME? I was just sorting through a passel of email and wondering how I was going to respond to it all, and then I saw your message and thought, "Look at this woman. Day after day after day, she takes time out of whatever she's doing to write out cogent, detailed replies to people, most of whom are complete strangers." If someone printed out all of your emails over the years and stacked them up, I'm sure the pages would exceed all of the Harry Potter books combined! There are obviously many people who contribute to this board, but I thought I would take a moment and make sure that one of them (you!) was told THANK YOU for being so consistently generous with your time and knowledge. John Solarno - -----Original Message----- From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com] On Behalf Of Katherine Malm Sent: Wednesday, June 18, 2003 8:56 AM To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] TSCO Hi Harold, In the context of the discussion, a stock that is *already* rising from a previous consolidation affords no low-risk entry point. With TSCO, an entry here puts you at risk of sitting out another pullback to the previous logical area of support. In this case, that can be all the way back to the previous pivot, slightly below (as that wide bar during the last pullback just after the last BO suggests), or somewhere around the 50dMA. The slight wedging action in recent weeks suggests that the probability of a pullback is very high, and particularly if one uses an 8% stop loss, the probability of being shaken out is therefore very high. If one really likes this stock, then it's a lot smarter to wait for a benign pullback and take your chances that it begins to move up again from the pullback, as your odds of making money on the trade are considerably higher. This is precisely what Fred has done for a couple of years, purchasing on pullbacks and selling TSCO many times since 12/01. I think the lesson with something like TSCO is that the 8% stop loss is a protective mechanism for entry at the ideal buy point (a strong BO on volume from a base), as the pullback here tends not to be much deeper if the BO is strong. However, using an 8% stop when entering an extended stock is just and excuse to loose 8%. There are plenty of good stocks out there, but one can purcase "a very good stock" and still lose their shirt 8% at a time. When a stock is extended, the 8% stop has no logic, because the next logical area of support is generally much, much lower than 8% below the extended entry. Even if one were to set a stop well below the 8% and back at logical support, then the risk is that the stock not only pulls back but *fails* outright, falling back into the base. At that point, a stop would force you out at a much bigger loss than 8%. Oooh...makes me shiver to think about it. Katherine - -----Original Message----- From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Harold Josephson Sent: Wednesday, June 18, 2003 1:09 AM To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] TSCO Hi Katherine, What do you conclude from this chart? Thanks Harold - -----Original Message----- From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com] On Behalf Of Katherine Malm Sent: Monday, June 16, 2003 11:07 AM To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] TSCO Hi Treb, Here's the chart as I see it: http://www.cwhcharts.com/katherine/TSCO061603.JPG Katherine - -----Original Message----- From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Treb Courie Sent: Monday, June 16, 2003 11:48 AM To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Subject: [CANSLIM] TSCO Is TSCO breaking out today? It's got good fundamentals and is on my watch list. However, I think I'm going to stay off of it--it looks to me like it broke out of a sloppy handle on 2 June and is too extended now. Regards, Treb - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 18 Jun 2003 20:07:52 -0500 From: "Gene Ricci" Subject: Fw: [CANSLIM] IBD Top 100 This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------=_NextPart_000_0158_01C335D5.4C6353F0 Content-Type: multipart/alternative; boundary="----=_NextPart_001_0159_01C335D5.4C64DA90" - ------=_NextPart_001_0159_01C335D5.4C64DA90 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Hi Katherine,=20 I went back to my original email and find that I asked: "Has any(one) = been bold enough to just buy and hold the top stocks from the IBD Top = 100 list on the next day's open?" I further defined the top stocks as = those meeting the minimum criteria of EPS+RS =3D> 190 and A/D =3D> A. Hopefully my question didn't suggest that the criteria would find all = the stocks with the potential for further huge gains. The data = presented showed that although the Top 100 list contained stocks = 'extended' there was still ample room to garner significant returns = without much work.=20 Maybe an explanation of 'my' CANSLIM is needed. It's a set of criteria = that I use to cull stocks that have been identified by my tops down = approach.... it does not use WON's recommended buy or sell rules per se = .... and since I'm basically a support and resistance trader, based on = the teachings of Stan Weinstein and Martin Pring, it only includes a = basic knowledge of the many chart patterns. I try to focus on the following (listed in my priority order): 1. money management 2. market timing and direction 3. stock selection to buy long or short - -> I no longer even try to use CANSLIM in a down market because shorting = is easier as well as a heck of a lot more profitable for me. My goal is to continue to refine a daily process that allows me to = identify good stocks, ride my winners, cut my losses and continue to = grow my portfolio ... with minimum effort ... while preserving my = capital. - ----------------------------------- See my answers inserted in blue: - ------------------------ > Hi Gene, > > I can take any list of "good stocks" at any point in time and > *retroactively* choose the optimal time in the past to "buy and hold = the > list," particularly if during that same period of time 95% of stocks = in the > market place are rising off 3 year lows. If the strategy itself is to buy and hold, at what point to you purchase = the list (or the stocks from the list with EPS+RS>=3D190, AD>=3DA)? When it is published, using position sizing as I do on all portfolios. Why April 21? That's when the list was a week old. A strategy has to be robust in all time periods.=20 I agree that one wants it to be robust in all time periods. However in = this case it's impossible to backtest because the list just appeared. What if the IBD100 had been published in early March 2000? Folks used DGO and IBD to buy the same class of stocks during that time = period. The criteria was a little tighter EPS+RS =3D> 194 and A/D =3D> = A. They also watched 'M'and used stops. The last piece of data that I = saw showed them to be profitable in all years from 1996 until today. > What if I'd purchased the EPS+RS stocks or the entire list and held = on to > them since then? What sort of returns would I be sitting on now? If you were using stops and still owned them I would assume that your = returns would be astronomical. This is not a buy/hold strategy. All of = my strategies are you hold them until.............. > > Why not purchase the stocks on 12/17/01 or 12/24/02 or any other date? = I'm sure that the 194 A group had a strategy for those time periods. What happens when a stock enters and leaves the list? When would one = exit? How > often would one reconstitute their portfolio? =20 Weed and seed (details highly classified)... good portfolio and money = management process, initial and trailing stops ....=20 If instead of buying and > holding the entire list on 4/21, what if = instead I'd purchased each and > every stock as it broke out of a sound base on volume? I don't have = access to your trades so only you can compare to the results that I = showed. But hopefully you should be clearly ahead. This is a simpler = approach that relies on the strong to get stronger approach. No = hunting, no huge amounts of time spent, etc etc. Downside is less gain. How would I have caught a breakout like TALX when the RS at the time of = its breakout was a > measely 53? Finding all breakouts is not nearly as important as = minimizing my effort. This is not a breakout strategy, it is a buy = strong stocks that are likely to get stronger strategy.=20 That flies in the face of mining a la CANSLIM rules, yet the IBD100 = list doesn't recognize that.=20 I don't have an issue with their Top 100 list because I'm looking for = strong stocks that will get stronger. IBD says that their list fully = meets the criteria for featuring the 100 leading companies. Their = rankings are based on a combo of each company's current/recent earnings = growth, Composite Rating, ROE, sales growth and profit margins and = relative price performance in the prior 12 months. > > Another example of this is the IBD weekly review index. The assumption = for > that index measure is that in order to achieve the same results as the index one would have to (1) buy the entire list and (2) buy and sell the components of the list as they were added or deleted. The index returns also do not take into account the transaction costs of buying and = selling each > individual equity as the portfolio is jiggered from one week to the = next.=20 I don't follow the IBD weekly review strategies. From what little I = know, some of their established 'weed and seed' portfolio management = strategies may be applicable to the Top 100 project. ... I've heard = that during Bull markets WER strategies have done fairly well. No idea = how they are working now. =20 Transaction costs are a don't care for me, I trade in a wrap account. > > Numbers like these you quoted are useful in demonstrating that these *kinds* of stocks are doing well in the market since 4/21, but they = don't represent a realizable return on an actual "strategy." A real money portfolio was started on 4/21 and I have money in my jeans = from it.... and while I'll agree that most everything went up during = that time period, I have to say...I wasn't looking at everything, only = the Top 100 list.=20 It's too early in the data collection and measuring process to determine = how this strategy will do over the long haul. Only data from real trades = will tell me if the current weed and seed criteria needs to be modified. Best, Gene > > Katherine > > -----Original Message----- > From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com > [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Gene Ricci > Sent: Tuesday, June 17, 2003 4:07 PM > To: canslim@lists.xmission.com > Subject: [CANSLIM] IBD Top 100 > > > Has any been bold enough to just buy and hold the top stocks from = the IBD > Top 100 list on the next day's open? Here's some data from two = sources: > > If purchased on April 21 you would be up 25.42% and still holding = on to them > (no stops applied). > > Minimal criteria EPS+RS =3D> 190 and A/D =3D> A. 6 positions = with 25.42% > gain: HITK GRMN SSYS TARO BCGI (loser but basing) JBSS. > > If purchased on April 11, 2003 you would be up 35% (same as above criteria): > HITK COH TARO > > How's this.... if you bought all of the stocks you would be up = 16.4%. > > regards, > Gene > > P.S. data is a couple of days old. > > > - ------=_NextPart_001_0159_01C335D5.4C64DA90 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
Hi Katherine,
 
I went back to my original email = and find=20 that I asked: "Has any(one) been = bold enough=20 to just buy and hold the top stocks from the IBD Top 100 list on the = next day's=20 open?" I = further defined=20 the top stocks as those meeting the minimum criteria of EPS+RS =3D> = 190 and A/D=20 =3D> A.
 
Hopefully my question didn't suggest = that the=20 criteria would find all the stocks with the potential for further = huge=20 gains.  The data = presented showed=20 that although the Top 100 list contained stocks 'extended' there was = still ample=20 room to garner significant returns without much work. 
 
Maybe an explanation of 'my' CANSLIM = is=20 needed.  It's a set of criteria that I use to cull stocks that have = been=20 identified by my tops down approach.... it does not use WON's = recommended=20 buy or sell rules per se .... and since I'm basically a support and resistance trader, = based on the=20 teachings of Stan Weinstein and Martin Pring,  = it only=20 includes a basic knowledge of the many chart patterns.
 
I try to focus on the following = (listed=20 in my priority order):
1. money management
2. market timing and = direction
3. stock selection to buy long or=20 short
-> I no longer even try to use = CANSLIM=20 in a down market because shorting is easier as well as a heck of a lot = more=20 profitable for me.
 
My goal is to continue to refine = a daily=20 process that allows me to identify good stocks, ride my=20 winners, cut my losses and continue to grow my portfolio ... = with=20 minimum effort ... while preserving my capital.
 
-----------------------------------
See my answers inserted in = blue:
------------------------
 
> Hi Gene,
>
> I can take any list of "good stocks" = at any=20 point in time and
> *retroactively* choose the optimal time in the = past to=20 "buy and hold the
> list," particularly if during that same period = of time=20 95% of stocks in the
> market place are rising off 3 year = lows.
 
If the strategy itself is to buy and hold, at what point to = you=20 purchase the list (or the stocks from the list with = EPS+RS>=3D190,=20 AD>=3DA)?
 
When it is = published,=20 using position sizing as I do on all portfolios.
 
Why April 21?
That's when = the list was a=20 week old.
 
A strategy has to be robust in all time periods.
I agree that = one wants it=20 to be robust in all time periods.  However in this case it's = impossible to=20 backtest because the list just appeared.
 
What if the IBD100 had been published in early March = 2000?
Folks used DGO = and IBD to=20 buy the same class of stocks during that time period. The criteria=20 was = a little=20 tighter EPS+RS =3D> 194 and A/D =3D> A. They also watched=20 'M'and used=20 stops. The last piece of data that I saw showed them to be = profitable in = all years from 1996 until = today.

> What if I'd purchased = the=20 EPS+RS  stocks or the entire list and held on to
> them since = then?=20 What sort of returns would I be sitting on now?
If you = were using=20 stops and still owned them I would assume that your=20 returns would be=20 astronomical. This is not a buy/hold strategy.  All of=20 my strategies are you hold them=20 until..............
>
> Why not = purchase the=20 stocks on 12/17/01 or 12/24/02 or any other date?
I'm sure that = the 194 A=20 group had a strategy for those time=20 periods.

What happens when a stock enters and leaves the list? When = would=20 one exit? How
> often would one reconstitute their = portfolio? 
Weed and seed = (details=20 highly classified)... 3D""good=20 portfolio and money management process, initial and trailing=20 stops .... 
 
If instead of buying and > holding the entire list on 4/21, what = if=20 instead I'd purchased each and
> every stock as it broke out of a = sound=20 base on volume?   I don't have access to your trades so only you can = compare to the=20 results that I showed. But = hopefully you should be clearly ahead.  This is = a simpler=20 approach that relies on the strong to get stronger approach.  No = hunting,=20 no huge amounts of time spent, etc etc.  Downside is less=20 gain.
 
How would I have  caught a breakout like TALX when the RS at = the time=20 of its breakout was a
> measely 53? Finding all breakouts is not nearly as important=20 as minimizing my effort. This is not a breakout strategy, it = is a buy=20 strong stocks that are likely to get stronger strategy. =
 
That flies in the face of mining a la CANSLIM rules, yet the  = IBD100=20 list doesn't recognize that.
I don't have = an issue with=20 their Top 100 list because I'm looking for strong stocks that will get=20 stronger.  IBD says that their list fully meets the=20 criteria for featuring the 100 leading companies. Their rankings = are=20  based on a combo of each company's current/recent earnings = growth,=20  Composite Rating, ROE, sales growth and profit margins = and=20 relative price performance in the prior 12 months.
>
> Another example of this is the IBD weekly review = index. The=20 assumption for
> that index measure is that in order to achieve = the same=20 results as the
index one would have to (1) buy the entire list and = (2) buy=20 and sell the
components of the list as they were added or deleted. = The index=20 returns
also do not take into account the transaction costs of = buying=20 and selling each
> individual equity as the portfolio is jiggered = from one=20 week to the next.
I don't=20 follow the IBD weekly review strategies. From what little I know, = some of=20 their established 'weed and seed' portfolio management strategies may be = applicable to the Top 100 project. = ...  I've heard=20 that during Bull markets WER strategies have done fairly = well. =20 No idea how they are working now. =20
 
Transaction = costs are a=20 don't care for me, I trade in a wrap=20 account.
>
> Numbers like = these you=20 quoted are useful in demonstrating that these
*kinds*  of stocks = are=20 doing well in the market since 4/21, but they don't
represent a=20 realizable return on an actual "strategy."
 
A real money = portfolio was=20 started on 4/21 and=20 I have money in my jeans from it.... and while I'll agree that most = everything=20 went up during that time period, I have to say...I wasn't looking at=20 everything, only the Top 100 list. =
 
It's too early = in the data=20 collection and measuring process to determine how this strategy will do = over the=20 long haul. Only data from real trades will tell me if the = current=20 weed and seed criteria needs to be modified.
 
Best,
Gene

>
>=20 Katherine
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: = owner-canslim@lists.xmis= sion.com
>=20 [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Gene = Ricci
>=20 Sent: Tuesday, June 17, 2003 4:07 PM
> To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=
>=20 Subject: [CANSLIM] IBD Top 100
>
>
> Has any been = bold=20 enough to just buy and hold the top stocks from the IBD
> Top = 100 list=20 on the next day's open?  Here's some data from two=20 sources:
>
> If purchased on April 21 you would be up = 25.42% and=20 still holding on to
them
> (no stops = applied).
>
>=20 Minimal criteria  EPS+RS =3D> 190 and A/D =3D> = A.   6=20 positions with 25.42%
> gain:  HITK GRMN SSYS TARO BCGI = (loser=20 but basing) JBSS.
>
> If purchased on April 11, 2003 you = would=20 be up 35% (same as above
criteria):
> HITK COH = TARO
>
>=20 How's this.... if you bought all of the stocks you would be up=20 16.4%.
>
> regards,
> Gene
>
> P.S. = data is a=20 couple of days=20 old.
>
>
>
- ------=_NextPart_001_0159_01C335D5.4C64DA90-- - ------=_NextPart_000_0158_01C335D5.4C6353F0 Content-Type: application/octet-stream; name="smiley07.gif" Content-Transfer-Encoding: base64 Content-ID: <015701c335ff$35364eb0$6401a8c0@desktop> R0lGODlhMAAwAPMAAP////vzBf9kA90JB/IIhEcApQAA0wKr6h+3FABkElYsBZBxOr+/v4CAgEBA QAAAACH/C05FVFNDQVBFMi4wAwEAAAAh/h1HaWZCdWlsZGVyIDAuMiBieSBZdmVzIFBpZ3VldAAh +QQNCgAMACwAAAAAMAAwAEME2pDJSau9OOsXuv9gKHrPNpIPd3apupaTu860CMevPKb1bdY9jZDB A35Sw4qO1WrtmsWQT7I0WqWUqvPKrAamOK4VnIxtQc2yOns+ttY/MbbsbT+930wduoeewHhyND6B goNhd1dRO1l/hTYzZI98dpFDj2JkSYtGSHCfoKEWlKJ0mEylZoZfmkKnnWqvXK2IbpW2nCRxuLes fjYYeL93uUejq7NKyIqNy8xUzs9E0WPNUrJdwspSX3IcdcdPnYWagb3FwHrU6bvrtNvR78HY16lU r572enz6/Z8RACH5BA0KAAwALAAAAAAwADAAQwTakMlJq7046xe6/2Aoes82kg93dqm6lpO7zrQI x2Obhvpe36baT0Nk+ISoYkWG6uV6TJIliqzyKNSWtZnDULcvZUZna4nPWC3PjB6Du+Kv+nW8ep/O ct42ffuBX35CN4EBc4OFhlgndYMzQDh6UIlwQYJ8bRKNiJmdnp8xUKBKm4yQnqVVKZ2UVqdul4xF WWSmhx+vkSCTeLV2fb2Fe5iLsapLxse6yYPLzDSEz0iAT1u+v5o2hm8ccsBrrYapUhe0k8PQlrvo yurSueXvrOGmo5r0q/Ybovr9bREAIfkEDQoADAAsAAAAADAAMABDBNqQyUmrvTjrF7r/YCh6zzaS D3d2qbqWk7vOtAjHrzym9W3WPY2QwQN+UsOKjtVq7ZrFkE+yNFqllKrzyqwGpjiuFZyMbUHNsjp7 PrbWPzG27G0/vd9MHbqHnsB4cjQ+gYKDYXdXUTtZf4U2M2SPfHaRQ49iZEmLRkhwn6ChFpSidJhM pWaGX5pCp51qr1ytiG6Vtpwkcbi3rH42GHi/d7lHo6uzSsiKjcvMVM7PRNFjzVKyXcLKUl9yHHXH T52FmoG9xcB61Om767Tb0e/B2NepVK+e9np8+v2fEQAh+QQNCgAMACwAAAAAMAAwAEME3ZDJSau9 OOsXuv9gKHrPNpIPd3apupaTu860CMd10LbhLn83U44W1GBSQ2DRyPixfM6nb7SMJq8kipWH1SF7 x25yydRyQbuy2rKztdZGa5ccdstRcnqTCuVPqWxigkF3gkQ4L4U9X4CIJ4qLjxeQi1CMaEyUV3px mkpwoKGinT6ja5czKaZmhl6injWcFbBjmXaoaG02Qrl/lbpgk4/At3dVrVhFtK2EyHOOzkM3y8jN frS4LLNUOmIcUceJlGeYwtKWfcF1c77lvNFAp/Daodljsmr2bqtllvz/qyIAACH5BA0KAAwALAAA AAAwADAAQwTakMlJq7046xe6/2Aoes82kg93dqm6lpO7zrQIx688pvVt1j2NkMEDflLDio7Vau2a xZBPsjRapZSq88qsBqY4rhWcjG1BzbI6ez621j8xtuxtP73fTB26h57AeHI0PoGCg2F3V1E7WX+F NjNkj3x2kUOPYmRJi0ZIcJ+goRaUonSYTKVmhl+aQqedaq9crYhulbacJHG4t6x+Nhh4v3e5R6Or s0rIio3LzFTOz0TRY81Ssl3CylJfchx1x0+dhZqBvcXAetTpu+u029HvwdjXqVSvnvZ6fPr9nxEA IfkEDQoADAAsAAAAADAAMABDBPWQyUmrvTjrF7r/YCh6zzYGT6py46qe5cSK6WmjM13l7TO4qx9P p5EMb7ZYMVNDhlLLHQ0Ioz4tR6cWRsl2mlswERtehaPM11OFbnfVoJXbtL0pl0eX3XzFZIFegC1k SWJVXl9ddnUkdjJxeowkkSSKhYiTmHePSD4Dn6CfmIlFo5IoczKma6mtrq+qLrBRhoWzRqtVrbla m3SQpnAfvoTDVlOUlUzIfMzCysXAzWvJw9HUtdKIm7ynfUaLkpqcPafj4FPeOIGW6eLs7eW95/HM h/RSdqJAop2/haGEOCGWT12SNt38pcpWB8othlNulQIisWKqCAAh/jZGSUxFIElERU5USVRZDQpD cmVhdGVkIG9yIG1vZGlmaWVkIGJ5DQpKLiBDLiBTZWliZXJ0DQoAIf7qVU5SRUdJU1RFUkVEIFNI QVJFV0FSRQ0KDQpBc3NlbWJsZWQgd2l0aCBHSUYgQ29uc3RydWN0aW9uIFNldDoNCg0KQWxjaGVt eSBNaW5kd29ya3MgSW5jLg0KQm94IDUwMA0KQmVldG9uLCBPTg0KTDBHIDFBMA0KQ0FOQURBLg0K DQpodHRwOi8vd3d3Lm1pbmR3b3Jrc2hvcC5jb20NCg0KVGhpcyBjb21tZW50IHdpbGwgbm90IGFw cGVhciBpbiBmaWxlcyBjcmVhdGVkIHdpdGggYSByZWdpc3RlcmVkIHZlcnNpb24uADs= - ------=_NextPart_000_0158_01C335D5.4C6353F0-- - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ End of canslim-digest V2 #3379 ****************************** To unsubscribe to canslim-digest, send an email to "majordomo@xmission.com" with "unsubscribe canslim-digest" in the body of the message. For information on digests or retrieving files and old messages send "help" to the same address. Do not use quotes in your message.