From: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com (canslim-digest) To: canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Subject: canslim-digest V2 #342 Reply-To: canslim Sender: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Errors-To: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Precedence: bulk X-No-Archive: yes canslim-digest Monday, July 27 1998 Volume 02 : Number 342 In this issue: Re: [CANSLIM] "M" - Db RE: [CANSLIM] "M" Nelson RE: [CANSLIM] Not CANSLIM - Today's Market Downturn [CANSLIM] Re: Shorts [CANSLIM] "M" - Db Re: [CANSLIM] "M" and lurkers afraid to post RE: [CANSLIM] Not CANSLIM - Today's Market Downturn [CANSLIM] "M" - Nelson Re: [CANSLIM] "M" - Nelson [CANSLIM] CANSLIM Seeing red on low volume RE: [CANSLIM] CANSLIM Seeing red on low volume [CANSLIM] Continuing the Rout Re: [CANSLIM] Continuing the Rout Re: [CANSLIM] New 3 week LLUR stocks Re: [CANSLIM] "M" - Db Re: [CANSLIM] New 3 week LLUR stocks RE: [CANSLIM] "M" - Db [CANSLIM] CPWR Re: [CANSLIM] New 3 week LLUR stocks [CANSLIM] Re: LLUR RE: [CANSLIM] "M" RE: [CANSLIM] "M" - Db [CANSLIM] "M" OTC RE: [CANSLIM] "M" - Nelson Re: [CANSLIM] "M" OTC [CANSLIM] "M" - Nelson Re: [CANSLIM] "M" OTC ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Date: Sun, 26 Jul 1998 15:39:31 -0700 (PDT) From: dbphoenix Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] "M" - Db <> No need to pat me on the head, Jeffry. I know all about distribution days, failed rally attempts, blah, blah. I also know the value of planning ahead. I know what to look for and when to abandon one strategy in favor of another. I didn't suggest this shorting thread in order to give everyone yet another topic to argue about. I suggested it in order to give those who wanted to offer short candidates the opportunity to do so. No one objected. If there are now objections, I'll be happy to make the discussion private. No wonder newbies are reluctant to post. - --Db _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - - ------------------------------ Date: Sun, 26 Jul 1998 21:35:38 -0400 From: "Nelson E. Timken, Esq." Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] "M" Nelson Jeffry: Thanks for your "Hope" and "Fear". An even greater question is whether, at this stage of the game, if there is a recovery, as you suggest, at what point do I cut/losses or take profits, if any. Thursday's events will trigger a lull on Wednesday, as investor's wait for government data on the ECI, and who knows what will take place thereafter, so the time to make a move, if at all, would be Monday or Tuesday if there is a rally. The problem is that I violated the cardinal rule of gambling more than I am willing to lose. I ran right into a -400 point wall, which will be tough to rebound from. Fortunately, I have an Aug 100 on Cisco, and I feel somewhat confident that Friday's -2 drop was an aberration on a stock which is destined to rise again to the Aug 4th earnings announcement. I have enough of these that a rise again into the "in the money range" would counteract other losses. My unwritten strategy here was to make enough on the Cisco to pay for the rest, and then I could comfortably hold without worrying what happened. The plan did not materialize- but there is still hope that it might. Having recouped my expenditure, I would very comfortably play the others out. Nelson E. Timken Join me at: http://onelist.com/subscribe.cgi/investing-list - -----Original Message----- From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Jeffry White Sent: Sunday, July 26, 1998 7:26 AM To: canslim@mail.xmission.com Subject: [CANSLIM] "M" Nelson Nelson, I, too, know the situation you are in all too well. It remains one of my most dangerous tendencies, despite paying hefty tuition to the "M" over the years. And I know that it's your play to work out and learn from, so I am cautious to comment on your predicament. But, I noticed something in Friday's action of MSFT, CSCO and DELL which I personally find encouraging for a bounce starting early next week. I should probably preface with the overarching reality of your situation with the Livermore passage quoted in WON's IBD piece this Monday: "There are only two emotions in the market -- hope and fear. The problem is, you hope when you should fear, and fear when you should hope." Your situation is seemingly a classic from which we can all learn or be reminded of how delicate the psychological balance of trading is. Now, the Nasdaq action on Friday made a lower low, but it closed off and volume was lighter. Similar action in the SP500 and NYSE, but better closes. We know that a virtually unchanged to higher close accompanied by higher daily volume would have been the clearest signal of at least a short term rally against the down trend that began last Tuesday. That did not occur in the Nasdaq on Friday. However, a potential "bottom" does not necessarily have to occur with this type of price and volume signal. For example, the 6/15 low was not a "reversal" low, just a low. And we followed through nicely from there. The reversal low is much easier to spot and provides much more comfort, for me anyway, in the count for a follow through day or just a resumption of the uptrend. Pulling up MSFT, CSCO and DELL, you see three leading stock for this move showing the price and volume action which would be indicative of a potential bottom and the beginning of at least a short term bounce, were they alone the index. Not saying that they will rally or that they are necessarily indicative of the broader indices, just pointing out the pattern forming in some of the Nasdaq leaders. Same pattern exists for LU, but not in the internet stocks. AOL, YHOO, AMZN, for example. However, MSPG produced the reversal type low on higher daily volume. Do the reversals in these selected leadership stock foreshadow a rally attempt in the indices? I *think* it is likely, but I am not sure that I'm going to commit to a reentry positions without a clearer indication that the "M" is behind me. For you, I *hope* and *fear* that it is enough. "The speculative, or swinger-type, stock index is occasionally significant because market movements are almost always led by a few agressive stocks. The leaders of the original move up may at times turn on their heels first. Therefore, a speculative index may highlight the one-day price reversal or stalling action on increased volume. I term this 'heavy or increased volume without further price progress to the upside." HTTMIS, 2d Ed at p. 51. Anyone care to point out and comment on the recent action of a "speculative stock index" as described here? "Immediately following the first selling near the top, a vacuum exists where volume may subside and the market averages will sell off for perhaps four days. The second and probably the last early chance to recognize a top reversal is when the market attempts its first rally, which it will always do after a number of days down from its highest point." HTTMIS, 2d Ed. at 50. It would seem that the inverse of the first passage would hold true, as well. That is, where the aggressive leaderships stocks reverse on higher volume, a potential bottom/short term rally will ensue. Of course, where only a few of them reverse, perhaps it means nothing. We'll see, I suppose. Good luck, Nelson. Jeff - - - - ------------------------------ Date: Sun, 26 Jul 1998 20:04:28 -0800 From: "Patrick Wahl" Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Not CANSLIM - Today's Market Downturn From: "Nelson E. Timken, Esq." To: > I hope you are right Patrick. I will be beating a hasty exit indeed if there > is a gain large enough to recap my losses. Thanks. I just checked the futures on the CME, S&P is down 7.5 points. However, I have seen this before, followed by an up day the next day, so there is still hope. Japan is getting whacked tonight, that might be the cause. - - ------------------------------ Date: Sun, 26 Jul 1998 21:53:40 -0500 (CDT) From: mckeener@ix.netcom.com Subject: [CANSLIM] Re: Shorts Db, I'm interested. Mary - - ------------------------------ Date: Sun, 26 Jul 1998 19:20:50 -0400 From: Jeffry White <"postwhit@sover.net"@sover.net> Subject: [CANSLIM] "M" - Db > < It's so simple, just let it talk to you.>> > > No need to pat me on the head, Jeffry. I know all about distribution > days, failed rally attempts, blah, blah. I also know the value of > planning ahead. I know what to look for and when to abandon one > strategy in favor of another. > > I didn't suggest this shorting thread in order to give everyone yet > another topic to argue about. I suggested it in order to give those > who wanted to offer short candidates the opportunity to do so. No one > objected. If there are now objections, I'll be happy to make the > discussion private. > > No wonder newbies are reluctant to post. > > --Db > > > Wow, a little touchy, maybe? Not objecting to your shorting suggestions or anything else, for that matter. Just don't think we should be so quick to deem the "M" direction changed to the downside over the intermediate term. Jeff - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 27 Jul 1998 02:13:50 GMT From: musicant@autobahn.org (Dan Musicant) Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] "M" and lurkers afraid to post On Sun, 26 Jul 1998 17:44:28 +0200, you wrote: :Jeffry wrote: : :>Initiating short :>positions might have been prudent on the distribution day of Tuesday : :At the time, the action on Tuesday was not enough for me, to conclude: = this :is an important change in market direction. Anyone recognized it on :Tuesday? Please tell me how you did it. It seemed pretty clear to me on Tuesday that a reversal had materialized very quickly, and the seed was Mr. Greenspan's remarks, which appear to have taken folks by surprise. There had been much talk about even a possible decrease in interest rates and there seemed to have been a raising confidence that there was an every declining need to increase rates due to the trade deficit, low inflation. I believe that the remarks sent a shudder through Wall Street. I mean the indexes were modestly but substantially up in the morning and the Nasdaq finished the day down 35 points, I believe. I was in cash by the end of the day. Here's the remark I posted Wednesday: - -------------------------------------------------------------------------= - ---- << :Hi everyone, : :What is your take on the latest market action. : :Peter Newell : My take is this: Mr. Greenspan twitches his finger and the dominoes fall, the bomb detonates, the 8.6 is cut loose. Whatever you call it, any threat of rate hikes from this man, if thought to be more than a bluff, is taken quite seriously.=20 I should have been better prepared for this possibility, but turned my back yesterday long enough to have 1/3 of my profits on DELL wiped out. I pulled the plug anyway.=20 Shorts anyone? Candidates? Dan >> - -------------------------------------------------------------------------= - ---- : :I recognized the distribution on Tuesday alright , but I didn't :recognize the short-term trend change then. On Wednesday things where :pointing in that direction allright. But Tuesday wasn't just a demonstrable day of distribution -- it was an up day that abruptly turned around and headed South the way a dog would if he'd just seen a grizzly bear (excuse the pun, please). : :>To initiate a short in the face of a highly probable "rally attempt" to :>come is probably not the best idea. No, I think you'd best watch your timing next week, and stay out (or get out if you're not already) if you don't have real confidence in your investment skills. Seems to me that O'Neill would say such a thing. : :Hey, I'm merily preparing to go short. Takes a few days (I'm slow, I :guess). I don't even know yet if I will short anything, only getting = ready :for the eventuality. : :>I am reminded, by all of the discussion about shorting, that it just :>seems too obvious. Just as the long side seemed obvious early in the :>week on many of the chat groups, talking heads and whore analysts, so :>too may be the short side after the latter part of this week's action.=20 :>My thought (from having suffered the pain of being short too early in :>April) would be to watch for a "failed rally attempt".=20 : Seems to me that the likelihood of a failed rally attempt (if any) is pretty good at this point. :Excellent advice IMO. : :A bounce is likely now, somewhere next week. And until "the failed rally :attempt" one can use the time to look for potential shorts.=20 : :We might also not have a bounce of any significane and break down hard :below the 50MA to the 200MA. : :>Changes in market direction do not happen overnight, usually.=20 Right, I suppose. But I really think (as I said above) that Greenspan's remarks took people a little by surprise this time. : :I know what you mean, and I agree. I'll also add that it also depends on :ones time frame.=20 : :>We are :>likely early in any change of market direction, if that's what this is.= =20 :>We saw some distribution accompanied by high sentiment numbers in a = very :>narrow market. That's somewhat different (on the breadth side :>particularly) than what happened in April, but don't jump the gun here :>and assume that a bear market is upon us or even that the market has :>change direction. A bear market is not here yet, that's for sure. The lack of breadth of the advance of the indexes the last few weeks hasn't been a good sign at all. This hasn't been "healthy". I have heard several times that the small caps were finally going to kick in and lead the markets higher. I am now quite skeptical that this is going to happen this year. :In my book the market has changed direction. We broke a mid-term = uptrend. :That is only important for traders, not necessarily of any significance = to :long-term investors. : :>All we seemingly have is a mini-blow off run which :>corrected on a reversal/distribution day with sentiment running fairly :>strong. The leaders have not yet "failed", only corrected.=20 : :Indeed, MSFT, LU, DELL, CSCO to name a few have not failed yet. : :Watching the market leaders is very important. Watching breadth is also :important. This has been a market lead by a small number of stocks. If :breadth doesn't get better during a rally, usually the rally can not be :sustained. Seems to me like the market is currently proving that point. : :Maybe it will all change again next week. Who knows? I certainly don't. = One :day at a time. Any significant change next week would be to the downside, far as I see. Do you seriously think a leg up is now in the offing shortterm?? One day at a time, sure. :>Sentiment is high, but it can wobble at these ranges for some time = before :>we really know what is going to happen with the "M" direction. :> :>If the rally doesn't fail, in the classic sense, watch for further :>distribution signals. : :>BTW, if Deepak or Dan Cash are out there today, perhaps they have a = copy :>of a note I sent which attempted to memorialize my thinking in moving = to :>cash back in April. Maybe they could post it to the group. I think it :>shows how watching the "M" *TOO* closely, and with too much emotion can :>be hazardous (missed profits, premature shorts, etc.) : :Good point. Concerning missed profits: I co-authored the book. = Not :proud of that. Nr. 1 on my list of "things to improve". : :Thank you for your response, Jeffry. Always interesting. And I = appreciate :the remarks. Makes me think even harder. : :I've recieved email and heard that a lot of the lurkers are afraid to = post :here in fear of being critiqued or humiliated. 100% understandable. : :I do hope that everyone who wants to participate on the list, or ask a :question or whatever, will do so. : :Here's my perspective on "being critiqued/humiliated or whatever label = you :want to put on it": : :In my case, I choose to post here, because I'd much rather take the = chance :of being critiqued or humiliated by the members of this list than being :humiliated by the markets. : :Being critiqued or even being humiliated by the posters here "for me" is :like a trip to Disney World compared to being humiliated by the markets. : :To take it one step further: One can CHOOSE to feel hurt OR NOT when :reading a post. After all a post basically is only a bunch of ASCII :characters that appear on your screen. You look at it, form words, :sentences and assign meaning to them, interpret it and even try to :mind-read the other person's intentions.=20 : No one hurts you like you hurt yourself. It's an axiom. I too would prefer to be roasted here than hung out to dry by the markets. Fire away! Dan musicant@autobahn.org - - ------------------------------ Date: Sun, 26 Jul 1998 23:07:04 -0400 From: "Nelson E. Timken, Esq." Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Not CANSLIM - Today's Market Downturn 7.5 would be a huge loss for the market. I have to just hope. Thanks for the info. I'd better start thinking about stop losses - real ones for tomorrow. Nelson E. Timken mailto:netimken@erols.com http://onelist.com/subscribe.cgi/investing-list - -----Original Message----- From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Patrick Wahl Sent: Monday, July 27, 1998 12:04 AM To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Not CANSLIM - Today's Market Downturn From: "Nelson E. Timken, Esq." To: > I hope you are right Patrick. I will be beating a hasty exit indeed if there > is a gain large enough to recap my losses. Thanks. I just checked the futures on the CME, S&P is down 7.5 points. However, I have seen this before, followed by an up day the next day, so there is still hope. Japan is getting whacked tonight, that might be the cause. - - - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 27 Jul 1998 06:36:10 -0400 From: Jeffry White <"postwhit@sover.net"@sover.net> Subject: [CANSLIM] "M" - Nelson > Jeffry: > > Thanks for your "Hope" and "Fear". An even greater question is whether, at > this stage of the game, if there is a recovery, as you suggest, at what > point do I cut/losses or take profits, if any. Thursday's events will > trigger a lull on Wednesday, as investor's wait for government data on the > ECI, and who knows what will take place thereafter, so the time to make a > move, if at all, would be Monday or Tuesday if there is a rally. > Regardless of whether there is a rally (and there will likely be, but it's impossible to say when), I think you protect yourself psychologically from making another mistake in the loss column. If that means cashing out on the open today, holding down to a newly and exquisitely painful additional loss, or riding the week out in a gambling mode, so be it. Have a plan and follow through on it. Whatever it is, you'll feel better (even if a little lighter in the wallet). Of course, as you have pointed out, the stocks may rally to new heights the moment you do let go. By holding you may get lucky, but I would try to protect my capital (and my head) so that I could approach the "M" another day with a clearer focus and a resolve to adherence to the rules. Any rally here has a good chance of failure after running for just a few days, with sentiment out in the stratosphere. So, if it's played, you'll later have to come to grips with "greed" and "fear" of having positions that are almost "break-even" or actually showing a profit. Nothing easy about that roller coaster, especially if the rally fails. It's a tough call. I've compounded mistakes, and I've gotten lucky. I'm certain you've done both, as well. We all have. I'm proud of neither, however. Wish I could help, but I can only ramble here about what must be going on with the back and forth inside your head. Best of luck. Jeff - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 27 Jul 1998 06:35:03 -0700 (PDT) From: dbphoenix Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] "M" - Nelson <> I'm afraid I have to add my name to the list, Nelson. You may feel like a failure and a quitter and a schlub and a coward if you cash out, but it won't last, and then you'll be able to make a clear-headed assessment of the situation and your ability--financial and otherwise--to meet it. If that means buying back some of the options you just sold, so be it. You probably feel as though you're struggling with some nameless, faceless enemy, but you're not. The market doesn't know you or care about you anymore than the Mirage knows or cares about the people who enter its casino. If it helps to think of this as a business and of yourself as a businessman, then go that way. Follow any course that will help you to behave rationally (those options are employees who not only performed miserably but stole from you in the meantime--fire their sorry butts). - --Db _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 27 Jul 1998 08:23:31 -0700 (PDT) From: TM Subject: [CANSLIM] CANSLIM Seeing red on low volume I looked the IBD industry portfolios in Yahoo that I had time to check. I see red; but, the volume is very, very low. The exception I found: Mylan Labs, down on big volume. TM _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 27 Jul 98 11:48:400 -0500 From: Jeffry White Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] CANSLIM Seeing red on low volume ===== Original Message from canslim@lists.xmission.com at 7/27/98 11:23 am >I looked the IBD industry portfolios in Yahoo that I had time to >check. I see red; but, the volume is very, very low. The exception I >found: Mylan Labs, down on big volume. >TM >_________________________________________________________ >DO YOU YAHOO!? >Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com > > >- > > > >Message Forwarded to: mail@uucp {postwhit@sover.net} ===== Comments by JWHITE@TJOSLIN (Jeffry White) at 7/27/98 11:46 am Wouldn't be much of a surprise to see us close unchanged to higher on the day. Volume is incredibly low for this time of day, and with this type of price action. Jeffry - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 27 Jul 1998 08:42:01 -0700 From: Tim Fisher Subject: [CANSLIM] Continuing the Rout Well, I'm close to cash today. My CANSLIM stocks have all sold s of somewhere around the open. So much for the bounce. Wish I could sell the MCD - almost worth it for my wife to quit and sell her shares! Tim Fisher, 1995 President, Pacific Fishery Biologists Ore-ROCK-On Rockhounding Web Site PFB Information mailto:tim@OreRockOn.com WWW http://OreRockOn.com - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 27 Jul 1998 12:34:54 EDT From: Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Continuing the Rout There are many large cap stocks under their 50 day moving Average. Short term we are oversold. New highs are not in the near picture. Any relief rally might retest the 50 day moving average. This should be a good short opportunity. As a stock tries to move back up towards it's 50 m.a. and actually touches or nears it's 50 m.a. a low risk short entry could be made. Exit if the stock closes above the 50 m.a. for very low risk. - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 27 Jul 1998 12:56:19 -0400 From: Jack Lykins Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] New 3 week LLUR stocks I would appreciate a brief explanation of "LLUR" Thanks Jack Lykins rolatzi wrote: > The following LLUR stocks in their 3rd week on the list. The columns > are symbol, week, date, RS(0), RS(-1), %ch in RS, > > BLL 3 7/24/98 82 88 -7% > BMY 3 7/24/98 83 81 2% > EGR 3 7/24/98 93 91 2% > QUIX 3 7/24/98 92 91 1% > SPEH 3 7/24/98 90 92 -2% > STC 3 7/24/98 98 98 0% > > This is from Mike A's CARS scan. I am concentrating on the week 3 > listings to try and determine which succeed and which don't. Three > weeks on the list is his recommendation for a minimum consideration > for buying. > > Ciao, > rolatzi > > _________________________________________________________ > DO YOU YAHOO!? > Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com > > - - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 27 Jul 1998 13:06:09 EDT From: Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] "M" - Db In a message dated 98-07-27 08:50:32 EDT, you write: << Wow, a little touchy, maybe? Not objecting to your shorting suggestions or anything else, for that matter. Just don't think we should be so quick to deem the "M" direction changed to the downside over the intermediate term. Jeff >> I know exactly what you are saying and this would seem to be valid if this was a normal intermediate leg up.....but it's not. We simply had a liquidity driven mega-cap rally to new highs with bad breadth, and a bunch of sickly, weak volume breakouts for many CS stocks. Dave - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 27 Jul 1998 17:29:06 GMT From: musicant@autobahn.org (Dan Musicant) Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] New 3 week LLUR stocks On Mon, 27 Jul 1998 12:56:19 -0400, you wrote: :I would appreciate a brief explanation of "LLUR" : :Thanks : :Jack Lykins Hiya Jack, The concept is very simple, and after this explanation, you should understand it as well as I do, I presume. LLUR simply means "lower left, upper right". Picture a childrens' slide angling down to the left or a ladder leaning against a building on the right. This is the shape of a chart of an LLUR stock. It simply means that it has been going up steadily (all in all). It's a stock that has been performing extremely well lately. One criteria might be that the stock hasn't retraced more than 15% from it's all-time high over a 6 month span, and has doubled in value over the same time period. Dan musicant@autobahn.org - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 27 Jul 98 13:34:400 -0500 From: Jeffry White Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] "M" - Db ===== Original Message from canslim@lists.xmission.com at 7/27/98 1:06 pm >In a message dated 98-07-27 08:50:32 EDT, you write: > ><< Wow, a little touchy, maybe? Not objecting to your shorting suggestions > or anything else, for that matter. Just don't think we should be so > quick to deem the "M" direction changed to the downside over the > intermediate term. > > Jeff >> > >I know exactly what you are saying and this would seem to be valid if this was >a normal intermediate leg up.....but it's not. We simply had a liquidity >driven mega-cap rally to new highs with bad breadth, and a bunch of sickly, >weak volume breakouts for many CS stocks. > >Dave > >- > > > >Message Forwarded to: mail@uucp {postwhit@sover.net} ===== Comments by JWHITE@TJOSLIN (Jeffry White) at 7/27/98 1:33 pm Maybe.... - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 27 Jul 1998 11:58:30 -0800 From: "Patrick Wahl" Subject: [CANSLIM] CPWR Compuware is acting pretty well today. It had great earnings last week, has resisted the sell off in the NASDAQ for the most part. - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 27 Jul 1998 10:57:58 -0700 (PDT) From: rolatzi Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] New 3 week LLUR stocks LLUR stands for Lower Left Upper Right and describes the movement of a stock that just continues to increase in a predictable and continuous fashion. Mike Altabello screens for them by looking for the following: 10DMA has been above the 50DMA every week for the past 3 months 50DMA has been rising every week for the past 3 months Low is within 15% of 52 week high every day for 3 months Hope this helps, Ciao, rolatzi _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 27 Jul 1998 10:53:55 -0700 (PDT) From: rolatzi Subject: [CANSLIM] Re: LLUR LLUR stands for Lower Left Upper Right and describes the movement of a stock that just continues to increase in a predictable and continuous fashion. Mike Altabello screens for them by looking for the following: 10DMA has been above the 50DMA every week for the past 3 months 50DMA has been rising every week for the past 3 months Low is within 15% of 52 week high every day for 3 months Hope this helps, Ciao, rolatzi _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 27 Jul 1998 11:54:38 -0700 (PDT) From: dbphoenix Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] "M" Bullish and bearish arguments are equally valid and equally beside the point. "Calling it" is beside the point. One would make far better use of his time by following the price and volume relationships over the next few days/weeks, relating them to support and resistance, and applying whatever relevant lessons he has learned from either CS or HGS or both. The averages may close unchanged or even up today. It doesn't matter. It's noise. The Dow is still below its 50d MA and the Naz is still below its 17. It's going to take a considerable show of strength to get these averages back up again and get them to stay up. I strongly urge anyone who isn't a daytrader and who is thinking of going long here to reconsider. Clarity and focus are made much easier of one develops at least three scenarios--one for an upleg, one for a downleg, and one for a consolidation. What does the market have to do in each case? What areas of support and resistance must it overcome or respect? What must the volume be like? These are only a couple of the necessary items to look at, but by doing so, one doesn't become wed to a particular outcome (this is similar in viewpoint to looking at each potential trade from both the long and the short side). It doesn't matter if an uptrending market "doesn't make sense". That's a sure way of missing an upmove if you're the long type, or of being squeezed if you like the short side. - --Db _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 27 Jul 98 15:25:400 -0500 From: Jeffry White Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] "M" - Db ===== Original Message from canslim@lists.xmission.com at 7/27/98 1:06 pm >In a message dated 98-07-27 08:50:32 EDT, you write: > ><< Wow, a little touchy, maybe? Not objecting to your shorting suggestions > or anything else, for that matter. Just don't think we should be so > quick to deem the "M" direction changed to the downside over the > intermediate term. > > Jeff >> > >I know exactly what you are saying and this would seem to be valid if this >was >a normal intermediate leg up.....but it's not. We simply had a liquidity >driven mega-cap rally to new highs with bad breadth, and a bunch of sickly, >weak volume breakouts for many CS stocks. > >Dave > >- > > > >Message Forwarded to: mail@uucp {postwhit@sover.net} ===== Comments by JWHITE@TJOSLIN (Jeffry White) at 7/27/98 3:23 pm Excuse my previous response to this note, Dave. Just glanced at your note without much of a chance to digest it. I agree, and have found profits only in the "mega-caps" which were rallying. My CS trades have done very poorly. Regards. - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 27 Jul 1998 22:48:01 +0200 From: Johan Van Houtven Subject: [CANSLIM] "M" OTC The NASDAQ closed @ 1933.2, the high of the day, practically speaking. We closed 0.11% above the close of the previous trading day (Friday). High: 1933.30 Low: 1887.48 Volume was: 720695000 shares. That -11.26% less than Friday. Volume was 7.98% less than ADV(30) and 3.37% less than ADV(50). End of facts, start of opinion: Winner of the day? Who would have guessed it? The NDX, the NASDAQ 100. (DELL, MSFT, ...) We had a reversal day on volume that was lower than the previous trading day. Nothing of major importance in my book (except fro Nelson that is!). Going to study it all in more detail now. Johan Van Houtven / CLICK! N.V. - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 27 Jul 1998 17:10:07 -0400 From: "Nelson E. Timken, Esq." Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] "M" - Nelson You are so right Jeffry, and I did make a plan for myself. The market was down most of the day today, so I made my mind up to wait and see and put it out of my mind. By the end of the day, the rally you predicted took place, with Dell rising over 5 and the call options reaching what I paid for them. The Microsoft options exceeded my price, and the rest are slightly below what I paid. My plan is to wait until tomorrow. I think the rally may continue into the morning since it took place so late in the day and there may in fact be some buy orders left over that did not get executed that may carry-over the rally until the morning session. At that point, if there is a slight profit, I think a hasty retreat is in order. I won't look back, don't worry. When you get over a spiked fence after being chased by a rabid dog without tearing yourself a new derriere, you don't stop to wonder if you could have jumped a little higher. Nelson E. Timken http://onelist.com/subscribe.cgi/investing-list - -----Original Message----- From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Jeffry White Sent: Monday, July 27, 1998 6:36 AM To: canslim@mail.xmission.com Subject: [CANSLIM] "M" - Nelson > Jeffry: > > Thanks for your "Hope" and "Fear". An even greater question is whether, at > this stage of the game, if there is a recovery, as you suggest, at what > point do I cut/losses or take profits, if any. Thursday's events will > trigger a lull on Wednesday, as investor's wait for government data on the > ECI, and who knows what will take place thereafter, so the time to make a > move, if at all, would be Monday or Tuesday if there is a rally. > Regardless of whether there is a rally (and there will likely be, but it's impossible to say when), I think you protect yourself psychologically from making another mistake in the loss column. If that means cashing out on the open today, holding down to a newly and exquisitely painful additional loss, or riding the week out in a gambling mode, so be it. Have a plan and follow through on it. Whatever it is, you'll feel better (even if a little lighter in the wallet). Of course, as you have pointed out, the stocks may rally to new heights the moment you do let go. By holding you may get lucky, but I would try to protect my capital (and my head) so that I could approach the "M" another day with a clearer focus and a resolve to adherence to the rules. Any rally here has a good chance of failure after running for just a few days, with sentiment out in the stratosphere. So, if it's played, you'll later have to come to grips with "greed" and "fear" of having positions that are almost "break-even" or actually showing a profit. Nothing easy about that roller coaster, especially if the rally fails. It's a tough call. I've compounded mistakes, and I've gotten lucky. I'm certain you've done both, as well. We all have. I'm proud of neither, however. Wish I could help, but I can only ramble here about what must be going on with the back and forth inside your head. Best of luck. Jeff - - - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 27 Jul 1998 17:19:28 EDT From: Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] "M" OTC In a message dated 98-07-27 16:55:07 EDT, you write: << Volume was: 720695000 shares. That -11.26% less than Friday. >> I was just looking at a 10-min chart of the NAS Composite. Although the volume was weak overall, the heavy volume came in around 1:30 just after the NAS started up then lightened up for a breif consolidation before price start up again on heavy volume. I liked the action today.....but then there's those 600+(NYSE,AMEX,OTC combined) new lows....OUCH DCSquires - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 27 Jul 1998 17:46:45 -0400 From: Jeffry White <"postwhit@sover.net"@sover.net> Subject: [CANSLIM] "M" - Nelson > You are so right Jeffry, and I did make a plan for myself. The market was > down most of the day today, so I made my mind up to wait and see and put it > out of my mind. By the end of the day, the rally you predicted took place, > with Dell rising over 5 and the call options reaching what I paid for them. > The Microsoft options exceeded my price, and the rest are slightly below > what I paid. > > My plan is to wait until tomorrow. I think the rally may continue into the > morning since it took place so late in the day and there may in fact be some > buy orders left over that did not get executed that may carry-over the rally > until the morning session. At that point, if there is a slight profit, I > think a hasty retreat is in order. I won't look back, don't worry. When you > get over a spiked fence after being chased by a rabid dog without tearing > yourself a new derriere, you don't stop to wonder if you could have jumped a > little higher. > > Nelson E. Timken Nelson, If you can overlook the gospel of the 17 EMA (BTW, have you got a page reference in HTMMIS on that?), here's some "noise" you might be mindful of in light of today's relief, I think: "Frequently, the first stock market rally during a beginning downtrend will fail abruptly. After a resurgence, the second day will open strongly. But toward the end of the day, the market will suddenly close down. The abrupt failure of the market to follow through on its first recovery attempt should be met by further selling on your part." HTMMIS, 2d Ed. at 50-51. BTW, anyone appreciating the irony of my being shunned as "noise" after shunning so many as "noisemakers"? Wouldn't it be equally ironic if I were to object to Db's paternalism in response to my "noises" after being bombarded with so many objections to my own past paternalistic efforts to protect the group from Tom's "noises"? Wow, gonna have to ponder those questions, myself. Got a chuckle out of 'em, so far. Working on a full fledged belly laugh before supper.... ;) Jeffry - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 27 Jul 1998 14:58:07 -0700 (PDT) From: dbphoenix Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] "M" OTC <> You're smart to notice the new lows. Also the number of decliners versus advancers. As you pointed out earlier, this is all awfully muddy. The rebound you mention, for example, came along at about the same time as the AXP announcement and the PC sales announcement. And there's always the short-covering card to be shuffled into the deck. And the narrowness of the advance. A lot to chew on. - --Db _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - - ------------------------------ End of canslim-digest V2 #342 ***************************** To unsubscribe to canslim-digest, send an email to "majordomo@xmission.com" with "unsubscribe canslim-digest" in the body of the message. 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