From: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com (canslim-digest) To: canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Subject: canslim-digest V2 #3459 Reply-To: canslim Sender: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Errors-To: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Precedence: bulk Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable X-No-Archive: yes canslim-digest Monday, August 4 2003 Volume 02 : Number 3459 In this issue: [CANSLIM] New Investors needs help... a short story Re: [CANSLIM] New Investors needs help... a short story Re: [CANSLIM] New Investors needs help... a short story Re: [CANSLIM] New Investors needs help... a short story Re: [CANSLIM] New Investors needs help... a short story Re: [CANSLIM] New Investors needs help... a short story RE: [CANSLIM] New Investors needs help... a short story Re: [CANSLIM] New Investors needs help... a short story ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Date: Mon, 4 Aug 2003 12:47:39 -0400 (EDT) From: Yien T Lung Subject: [CANSLIM] New Investors needs help... a short story Hi all, I am quite new to this forum and I was hoping that some of you, more experienced canslim users, would kindly offer me some starting tips or share your procedure in the search for new potential buys. Let me continue by sharing my initial experience with you guys. I started investing 2 years ago after my friend recommended me to read books about Value Investing, more specifially, books about Warren Buffett. I read and summarized almost every single book I could get my hands on about Warren Buffett...and was almost too eager to start my road to be a millionaire. So what is value investing? Basically, I intepret it as investing in securities that are currently being traded at a value below its true "intrinsic value". The idea is that the market has been too harsh and pessimist about the prospects of a particular stock,..and you as a investor believes that this company has the potential to get back on track and that the current problems it is facing is only temporary. Sounds easy, but I found the hard way that it is not. In my impulsive and eagerness to make money? I plunged my hard earned cash into securities like Qwest (Q), Tyco (TYC),...among others. I bought Q when it was trading around 8.50. I thought to myself...this is a company that has a book value of at least 20 dollars. If only half of that book value is written off, I will still be safe. So I bought the stock, and saw it plunge in value to less than 1 dollar. Again, I thought it was ok because I am a "value investor"...and I need to hold my buys for the "long run"... A new management comes in and the stocks starts doing better... However, the new management finds out that there are a lot of improver entries and must restate earnings. That restatement totally wipes out the book value of the company!!! This taught me never to believe on BS alone. Now, even after two full years, the stock has not yet recouped to my entry level. My other experience was TYC. I bought it when it was 26. I read a lot of news from respected value managers that Tyco is a very sound company with a lot of small businesses that generate lots of free cash flow. Good hein? Well, I thought so too. I bought it and it went up all the way to 35. I thought, I should "stay for the long run" and let it run its way up.. But the next thing, the stock began to go south. That was the time when there was a lot of talk about the ex CEO being a crook and stuff like that. I held the stock for quite some time...and I will be very hopeful if the stock trades at around the price I got in.... So here I am today. After losing a lot of hard earned cash, I decided to give Mr. O'Neill's methodology a try. If you read some of this value investing, a lot of these people dont believe that technical analysis works..and my friend (a Buffett believer) doesnt think too highly of Mr O'Neills methodology. But I am willing to give it a try. Please help me get started. Thanks Yien - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 4 Aug 2003 13:02:51 -0400 From: "Pete" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] New Investors needs help... a short story Yien, welcome, I'd suggest you start with a watch list. Post it here. And I'm sure the members of this list will be glad to scrutinize it for you. Peter - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 4 Aug 2003 10:29:58 -0700 From: "DMC197807" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] New Investors needs help... a short story Yien, You are learning some lessons about the investing world. The easiest and most delightful story that investor windbags like to tell and retell is the folksy tale of Uncle Warren who "bought and never sold" shares like KO and the Washington Post. It is an easy and wonderful tale to tell, and what the naive derive from it is 1) that we can all do it, too and 2) that "buy & hold forever" is a viable methodology. Both are wrong. Instead of listening to others' silly and erroneous distillations of what Uncle Warren did and didn't do, it's better to get a copy of Lowenstein's biography of Warren and see how he did it. First of all, without a doubt WB could recognize good value and run an insurance company to beat the band. With the cash flow from the insurance company (all he had to do was beat the premium payout requirement, which he did quite easily) he could afford to buy and hold forever. However, since few of us own profit gushing insurance companies, the idea of buy & hold forever is almost impossible. We want to buy low and sell high, lather, rinse, repeat. (Of note as well are WB's various other activities, including risk arbitrage, currency and commodity speculation and a few disastrous investments in companies). In any event, WB caught the great bull wave, but he's gone nowhere in the last 5 years: http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=BRK/A,uu[h,a]mahlyiay[d19900804, 20030804][pb40!f][vc60][iut]&pref=G You know, thinking about investing like WB is like thinking about having a movie career in Hollywood like Tom Hanks. Tom did it, but it's hard to see someone else doing it. We all have to find our way differently. Good, that's a bunch of information that you can't use. Now, for some you can. There are only 3 numbers which matter, when all the dust is settled. They are NOT p/e, d/e, current ratio, PEG, profit margin or inventory turnover. THEY ARE: Price paid for shares, Price received for shares, Time held. Now, MILSCAN (Canslim to some of you) is a very interesting approach, and can possibly, with strong position and money management systems, help you to buy low and sell high in a timely timeframe. Here's how I think of these factors, in descending order of importance: M is for the market and the market trend. We are at an inflection point here, so it's lookout below, or perhaps lookout above. N is for new highs in the stock, breaking out above the pivot point L is for an relative strength rating of 70 or better A is for annual earnings growth (this is for additional comfort) C is for current quarterly earnings (this is for additional comfort) I is for institutional sponsorship (this is a timing issue--I think I trust the chart over this, for some reason) S is for supply of stock (looking for a relatively low no. of shares--here I want to exclude the over-issued monsters like CSCO and INTC where it will take a ton of momentum to move the billions of shares outstanding). In closing, using TA and FA together is a good idea, but when in conflict, trust the TA. Remember, out of 7000 stocks we are looking for 1 or 2 names a week on which to carefully place our hopes. As the emperor said, "Ni ban zhi, wo fang xin." DMC - ----- Original Message ----- From: "Yien T Lung" To: Sent: Monday, August 04, 2003 9:47 AM Subject: [CANSLIM] New Investors needs help... a short story > > Hi all, > > I am quite new to this forum and I was hoping that some of you, more > experienced canslim users, would kindly offer me some starting tips or > share your procedure in the search for new potential buys. > > Let me continue by sharing my initial experience with you guys. I started > investing 2 years ago after my friend recommended me to read books about > Value Investing, more specifially, books about Warren Buffett. I read and > summarized almost every single book I could get my hands on about Warren > Buffett...and was almost too eager to start my road to be a millionaire. > > So what is value investing? Basically, I intepret it as investing in > securities that are currently being traded at a value below its true > "intrinsic value". The idea is that the market has been too harsh and > pessimist about the prospects of a particular stock,..and you as a > investor believes that this company has the potential to get back on track > and that the current problems it is facing is only temporary. > > Sounds easy, but I found the hard way that it is not. > > In my impulsive and eagerness to make money? I plunged my hard earned cash > into securities like Qwest (Q), Tyco (TYC),...among others. I bought Q > when it was trading around 8.50. I thought to myself...this is a company > that has a book value of at least 20 dollars. If only half of that book > value is written off, I will still be safe. So I bought the stock, and saw > it plunge in value to less than 1 dollar. Again, I thought it was ok > because I am a "value investor"...and I need to hold my buys for the "long > run"... A new management comes in and the stocks starts doing better... > However, the new management finds out that there are a lot of improver > entries and must restate earnings. That restatement totally wipes out the > book value of the company!!! This taught me never to believe on BS alone. > Now, even after two full years, the stock has not yet recouped to my > entry level. > > My other experience was TYC. I bought it when it was 26. I read a lot of > news from respected value managers that Tyco is a very sound company with > a lot of small businesses that generate lots of free cash flow. Good hein? > Well, I thought so too. I bought it and it went up all the way to 35. I > thought, I should "stay for the long run" and let it run its way up.. But > the next thing, the stock began to go south. That was the time when there > was a lot of talk about the ex CEO being a crook and stuff like that. I > held the stock for quite some time...and I will be very hopeful if the > stock trades at around the price I got in.... > > So here I am today. After losing a lot of hard earned cash, I decided to > give Mr. O'Neill's methodology a try. If you read some of this value > investing, a lot of these people dont believe that technical analysis > works..and my friend (a Buffett believer) doesnt think too highly of Mr > O'Neills methodology. But I am willing to give it a try. Please help me > get started. > > Thanks > > Yien > > > > > > > > > - > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 4 Aug 2003 14:02:05 -0400 (EDT) From: Yien T Lung Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] New Investors needs help... a short story thanks DMC and Pete for your replies, My question to you is... if the universe of stocks is so large... what are your criterias that you look for that justify putting the stock in your watchlist? yien On Mon, 4 Aug 2003, DMC197807 wrote: > Yien, > > You are learning some lessons about the investing world. The easiest and > most delightful story that investor windbags like to tell and retell is the > folksy tale of Uncle Warren who "bought and never sold" shares like KO and > the Washington Post. It is an easy and wonderful tale to tell, and what the > naive derive from it is 1) that we can all do it, too and 2) that "buy & > hold forever" is a viable methodology. > > Both are wrong. Instead of listening to others' silly and erroneous > distillations of what Uncle Warren did and didn't do, it's better to get a > copy of Lowenstein's biography of Warren and see how he did it. First of > all, without a doubt WB could recognize good value and run an insurance > company to beat the band. With the cash flow from the insurance company > (all he had to do was beat the premium payout requirement, which he did > quite easily) he could afford to buy and hold forever. However, since few > of us own profit gushing insurance companies, the idea of buy & hold forever > is almost impossible. We want to buy low and sell high, lather, rinse, > repeat. (Of note as well are WB's various other activities, including risk > arbitrage, currency and commodity speculation and a few disastrous > investments in companies). > > In any event, WB caught the great bull wave, but he's gone nowhere in the > last 5 years: > > http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=BRK/A,uu[h,a]mahlyiay[d19900804, > 20030804][pb40!f][vc60][iut]&pref=G > > You know, thinking about investing like WB is like thinking about having a > movie career in Hollywood like Tom Hanks. Tom did it, but it's hard to see > someone else doing it. We all have to find our way differently. > > Good, that's a bunch of information that you can't use. Now, for some you > can. There are only 3 numbers which matter, when all the dust is settled. > They are NOT p/e, d/e, current ratio, PEG, profit margin or inventory > turnover. > > THEY ARE: Price paid for shares, Price received for shares, Time held. > > Now, MILSCAN (Canslim to some of you) is a very interesting approach, and > can possibly, with strong position and money management systems, help you to > buy low and sell high in a timely timeframe. > > Here's how I think of these factors, in descending order of importance: > > M is for the market and the market trend. We are at an inflection point > here, so it's lookout below, or perhaps lookout above. > > N is for new highs in the stock, breaking out above the pivot point > > L is for an relative strength rating of 70 or better > > A is for annual earnings growth (this is for additional comfort) > > C is for current quarterly earnings (this is for additional comfort) > > I is for institutional sponsorship (this is a timing issue--I think I trust > the chart over this, for some reason) > > S is for supply of stock (looking for a relatively low no. of shares--here I > want to exclude the over-issued monsters like CSCO and INTC where it will > take a ton of momentum to move the billions of shares outstanding). > > In closing, using TA and FA together is a good idea, but when in conflict, > trust the TA. Remember, out of 7000 stocks we are looking for 1 or 2 names > a week on which to carefully place our hopes. As the emperor said, "Ni ban > zhi, wo fang xin." > > DMC > > > > ----- Original Message ----- > From: "Yien T Lung" > To: > Sent: Monday, August 04, 2003 9:47 AM > Subject: [CANSLIM] New Investors needs help... a short story > > > > > > Hi all, > > > > I am quite new to this forum and I was hoping that some of you, more > > experienced canslim users, would kindly offer me some starting tips or > > share your procedure in the search for new potential buys. > > > > Let me continue by sharing my initial experience with you guys. I started > > investing 2 years ago after my friend recommended me to read books about > > Value Investing, more specifially, books about Warren Buffett. I read and > > summarized almost every single book I could get my hands on about Warren > > Buffett...and was almost too eager to start my road to be a millionaire. > > > > So what is value investing? Basically, I intepret it as investing in > > securities that are currently being traded at a value below its true > > "intrinsic value". The idea is that the market has been too harsh and > > pessimist about the prospects of a particular stock,..and you as a > > investor believes that this company has the potential to get back on track > > and that the current problems it is facing is only temporary. > > > > Sounds easy, but I found the hard way that it is not. > > > > In my impulsive and eagerness to make money? I plunged my hard earned cash > > into securities like Qwest (Q), Tyco (TYC),...among others. I bought Q > > when it was trading around 8.50. I thought to myself...this is a company > > that has a book value of at least 20 dollars. If only half of that book > > value is written off, I will still be safe. So I bought the stock, and saw > > it plunge in value to less than 1 dollar. Again, I thought it was ok > > because I am a "value investor"...and I need to hold my buys for the "long > > run"... A new management comes in and the stocks starts doing better... > > However, the new management finds out that there are a lot of improver > > entries and must restate earnings. That restatement totally wipes out the > > book value of the company!!! This taught me never to believe on BS alone. > > Now, even after two full years, the stock has not yet recouped to my > > entry level. > > > > My other experience was TYC. I bought it when it was 26. I read a lot of > > news from respected value managers that Tyco is a very sound company with > > a lot of small businesses that generate lots of free cash flow. Good hein? > > Well, I thought so too. I bought it and it went up all the way to 35. I > > thought, I should "stay for the long run" and let it run its way up.. But > > the next thing, the stock began to go south. That was the time when there > > was a lot of talk about the ex CEO being a crook and stuff like that. I > > held the stock for quite some time...and I will be very hopeful if the > > stock trades at around the price I got in.... > > > > So here I am today. After losing a lot of hard earned cash, I decided to > > give Mr. O'Neill's methodology a try. If you read some of this value > > investing, a lot of these people dont believe that technical analysis > > works..and my friend (a Buffett believer) doesnt think too highly of Mr > > O'Neills methodology. But I am willing to give it a try. Please help me > > get started. > > > > Thanks > > > > Yien > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > - > > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. > > > - > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. > - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 4 Aug 2003 14:13:39 EDT From: Chazmoore@aol.com Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] New Investors needs help... a short story - --part1_1aa.18356f85.2c5ffc53_boundary Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII" Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit Yien: For starters, why not buy a subscription to Investors Business Daily? Actually you can get a two weeks free trial. Every Monday, IBD publishes a list of the top 100 performing CANSLIM stocks. Use that as you watch list until you get familiar with the system. Also, go ahead and spend $12 on O'Neil's book, How to make money in Stocks. CANSLIM is an intermediate term investment style (meaning 90 days or so) and is not for everybody, but if you learn the system you can make money by investing in small to mid sized rapidly growing stocks. Charley PS It is a lot more exciting than value investing - --part1_1aa.18356f85.2c5ffc53_boundary Content-Type: text/html; charset="US-ASCII" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Yien: For starters, why n= ot buy a subscription to Investors Business Daily? Actually you can g= et a two weeks free trial.
Every Monday, IBD publishes a list of the top 100 performing CANSLIM sto= cks. Use that as you watch list until you get familiar with the system.
Also, go ahead and spend $12 on O'Neil's book, How to make money in S= tocks. CANSLIM is an intermediate term investment style (meaning 90 days= or so) and is not for everybody, but if you learn the system you can make m= oney by investing in small to mid sized rapidly growing stocks.

Charley


PS It is a lot more exciting than value investing - --part1_1aa.18356f85.2c5ffc53_boundary-- - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 4 Aug 2003 14:34:31 -0400 From: "joe" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] New Investors needs help... a short story This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------=_NextPart_000_002E_01C35A95.84B8DB00 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable first rule...always use a stop loss! i dont care what people say, the = main goal is to protect your money. ----- Original Message -----=20 From: Yien T Lung=20 To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20 Sent: Monday, August 04, 2003 12:47 PM Subject: [CANSLIM] New Investors needs help... a short story Hi all, I am quite new to this forum and I was hoping that some of you, more experienced canslim users, would kindly offer me some starting tips or share your procedure in the search for new potential buys. Let me continue by sharing my initial experience with you guys. I = started investing 2 years ago after my friend recommended me to read books = about Value Investing, more specifially, books about Warren Buffett. I read = and summarized almost every single book I could get my hands on about = Warren Buffett...and was almost too eager to start my road to be a = millionaire. So what is value investing? Basically, I intepret it as investing in securities that are currently being traded at a value below its true "intrinsic value". The idea is that the market has been too harsh and pessimist about the prospects of a particular stock,..and you as a investor believes that this company has the potential to get back on = track and that the current problems it is facing is only temporary. Sounds easy, but I found the hard way that it is not. In my impulsive and eagerness to make money? I plunged my hard earned = cash into securities like Qwest (Q), Tyco (TYC),...among others. I bought Q when it was trading around 8.50. I thought to myself...this is a = company that has a book value of at least 20 dollars. If only half of that = book value is written off, I will still be safe. So I bought the stock, and = saw it plunge in value to less than 1 dollar. Again, I thought it was ok because I am a "value investor"...and I need to hold my buys for the = "long run"... A new management comes in and the stocks starts doing = better... However, the new management finds out that there are a lot of improver entries and must restate earnings. That restatement totally wipes out = the book value of the company!!! This taught me never to believe on BS = alone. Now, even after two full years, the stock has not yet recouped to my entry level. My other experience was TYC. I bought it when it was 26. I read a lot = of news from respected value managers that Tyco is a very sound company = with a lot of small businesses that generate lots of free cash flow. Good = hein? Well, I thought so too. I bought it and it went up all the way to 35. = I thought, I should "stay for the long run" and let it run its way up.. = But the next thing, the stock began to go south. That was the time when = there was a lot of talk about the ex CEO being a crook and stuff like that. = I held the stock for quite some time...and I will be very hopeful if the stock trades at around the price I got in.... So here I am today. After losing a lot of hard earned cash, I decided = to give Mr. O'Neill's methodology a try. If you read some of this value investing, a lot of these people dont believe that technical analysis works..and my friend (a Buffett believer) doesnt think too highly of = Mr O'Neills methodology. But I am willing to give it a try. Please help = me get started. Thanks Yien - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - ------=_NextPart_000_002E_01C35A95.84B8DB00 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
first rule...always use a stop = loss! i=20 dont care what people say, the main goal is to protect your = money.
----- Original Message -----
From:=20 Yien T=20 Lung
Sent: Monday, August 04, 2003 = 12:47=20 PM
Subject: [CANSLIM] New = Investors needs=20 help... a short story


Hi all,

I am quite new to this forum and I = was=20 hoping that some of you, more
experienced canslim users, would = kindly offer=20 me some starting tips or
share your procedure in the search for new = potential buys.

Let me continue by sharing my initial = experience with=20 you guys. I started
investing 2 years ago after my friend = recommended me to=20 read books about
Value Investing, more specifially, books about = Warren=20 Buffett. I read and
summarized almost every single book I could get = my=20 hands on about Warren
Buffett...and was almost too eager to start = my road=20 to be a millionaire.

So what is value investing? Basically, I = intepret=20 it as investing in
securities that are currently being traded at a = value=20 below its true
"intrinsic value". The idea is that the market has = been too=20 harsh and
pessimist about the prospects of a particular stock,..and = you as=20 a
investor believes that this company has the potential to get back = on=20 track
and that the current problems it is facing is only=20 temporary.

Sounds easy, but I found the hard way that it is=20 not.

In my impulsive and eagerness to make money? I plunged my = hard=20 earned cash
into securities like Qwest (Q), Tyco (TYC),...among = others. I=20 bought Q
when it was trading around 8.50. I thought to = myself...this is a=20 company
that has a book value of at least 20 dollars. If only half = of that=20 book
value is written off, I will still be safe. So I bought the = stock, and=20 saw
it plunge in value to less than 1 dollar. Again, I thought it = was=20 ok
because I am a "value investor"...and I need to hold my buys for = the=20 "long
run"... A new management comes in and the stocks starts doing = better...
However, the new management finds out that there are a = lot of=20 improver
entries and must restate earnings. That restatement = totally wipes=20 out the
book value of the company!!! This taught me never to = believe on BS=20 alone.
Now, even after two full years, the stock has not yet = recouped to=20 my
entry level.

My other experience was TYC. I bought it = when it was=20 26. I read a lot of
news from respected value managers that Tyco is = a very=20 sound company with
a lot of small businesses that generate lots of = free=20 cash flow. Good hein?
Well, I thought so too. I bought it and it = went up=20 all the way to 35. I
thought, I should "stay for the long run" and = let it=20 run its way up.. But
the next thing, the stock began to go south. = That was=20 the time when there
was a lot of talk about the ex CEO being a = crook and=20 stuff like that. I
held the stock for quite some time...and I will = be very=20 hopeful if the
stock trades at around the price I got = in....

So here=20 I am today. After losing a lot of hard earned cash, I decided = to
give Mr.=20 O'Neill's methodology a try. If you read some of this = value
investing, a=20 lot of these people dont believe that technical analysis
works..and = my=20 friend (a Buffett believer) doesnt think too highly of Mr
O'Neills=20 methodology. But I am willing to give it a try. Please help me
get=20 = started.

Thanks

Yien








--To=20 subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com"
-In= the=20 email body, write "subscribe canslim" or
-"unsubscribe = canslim".  Do=20 not use quotes in your email.
- ------=_NextPart_000_002E_01C35A95.84B8DB00-- - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 4 Aug 2003 14:35:03 -0400 From: RSCARDAMALIA@EMPIRE.STATE.NY.US Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] New Investors needs help... a short story I'm another newbie to this list and investing in general so you old-timers will probably get tired of us quickly! My previous experience has been with mutual funds and the "buy and hold" philosophy that lost me 50% over 2001 and 2002. I've recently taken more interest in the market as a friend was turned onto a technical analysis program called Vector VST. I started doing some exploring on the net and found many other technical systems which lead me to this group. I'm assuming the software programs are twists on the same techniques but am interested in any reviews/recommendations you experts have. My short research also tells me you can't simply rely on the buy, sell, hold recommendation of a computer but rather still need to do your own analysis and "develop your own method". No get rich quick scheme here but the learning curve seems impossibly high. Have ordered the O'Neil book to start some reading. Can one expect to grasp enough in a few weeks to begin investing with a level of confidence? Bob Scardamalia ********************************************************************************************************************* IMPORTANT: This e-mail message and any attachments contain information intended for the exclusive use of the individual(s) or entity to whom it is addressed and may contain information that is proprietary, privileged, confidential and/or exempt from disclosure under applicable law. If you are not the intended recipient, you are hereby notified that any viewing, copying, disclosure or distribution of this information may be subject to legal restriction or sanction. Please immediately notify the sender by electronic mail or notify the System Administrator by telephone (518)292-5180 or e-mail (administrator@empire.state.ny.us) and delete the message. Thank you. ******************************************************************************************************************** - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 4 Aug 2003 11:37:09 -0700 From: "DMC197807" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] New Investors needs help... a short story Yien, You have to scan to get rid of the cats and dogs. Out of 7000 names there are generally fewer than 500 that you would be interested in in a MILSCAN world. Scan down by capitalization, volume, price share, relative strength, accumulation distribution, etc. Below is the text of an earlier message to Lonnie on this board concerning tc2k. If you pay for Stockcharts you can create and save your own scans there as well. You can also scan stocks with free programs such as: http://screen.yahoo.com/stocks.html There are others but I couldn't locate them immediately, DMC Lonnie, When I originally programmed my own canslim, I just used existing PCFs. But Steve Goodwin was kind enough to send me the following, which I have been playing with over the weekend (I now have 3 versions, but that's just me): First create these 4 PCF s and then update all. 1 Name: Canslim Volume % Change Formula: ((V-AVGV50)/100) 2 Name: Canslim Relative Strength Formula: (C/(C250+.001)) 3 Name: Canslim Dahl (89) Formula: ((AVGC89-AVGC89.27)>0) 4 Name: Canslim Acc/Dis Formula: AVG(BOP,65) Then (the rest of the message won't copy), set a new easy scan at: capitalization at 1 - 95 earnings growth rate 5 year at: 74-99 eps percent change latest year at 56-99 canslim acc dist at: 80-99 canslim dahl canslim rel str value at: 80 to 99 canslim vol % change at 85 to 99 price as percent of 52 week high price H: 64-99 price per share H at: 54-99 If this one doesn't give you enough candidates, you may want to keep it as CANSLIM #1 and add an easier version by changing the parameters as CANSLIM #2, etc. (This is why I'm now playing with 3 versions). DMC - ---- Original Message ----- From: "Lonnie Brauner" To: Sent: Sunday, July 27, 2003 6:57 PM Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Another mystery plunge > DMC, > > Could you share the programming? > > "As for programming the TC2K for canslim, I did it in about 5 > minutes--it was pretty easy. " > > Thanks, Lonnie > > Long time TC2000 user. > > - ----- Original Message ----- From: "Yien T Lung" To: Sent: Monday, August 04, 2003 11:02 AM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] New Investors needs help... a short story > thanks DMC and Pete for your replies, > > My question to you is... if the universe of stocks is so large... what are > your criterias that you look for that justify putting the stock in your > watchlist? > > > yien > > > On Mon, 4 Aug 2003, DMC197807 wrote: > > > Yien, > > > > You are learning some lessons about the investing world. The easiest and > > most delightful story that investor windbags like to tell and retell is the > > folksy tale of Uncle Warren who "bought and never sold" shares like KO and > > the Washington Post. It is an easy and wonderful tale to tell, and what the > > naive derive from it is 1) that we can all do it, too and 2) that "buy & > > hold forever" is a viable methodology. > > > > Both are wrong. Instead of listening to others' silly and erroneous > > distillations of what Uncle Warren did and didn't do, it's better to get a > > copy of Lowenstein's biography of Warren and see how he did it. First of > > all, without a doubt WB could recognize good value and run an insurance > > company to beat the band. With the cash flow from the insurance company > > (all he had to do was beat the premium payout requirement, which he did > > quite easily) he could afford to buy and hold forever. However, since few > > of us own profit gushing insurance companies, the idea of buy & hold forever > > is almost impossible. We want to buy low and sell high, lather, rinse, > > repeat. (Of note as well are WB's various other activities, including risk > > arbitrage, currency and commodity speculation and a few disastrous > > investments in companies). > > > > In any event, WB caught the great bull wave, but he's gone nowhere in the > > last 5 years: > > > > http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=BRK/A,uu[h,a]mahlyiay[d19900804, > > 20030804][pb40!f][vc60][iut]&pref=G > > > > You know, thinking about investing like WB is like thinking about having a > > movie career in Hollywood like Tom Hanks. Tom did it, but it's hard to see > > someone else doing it. We all have to find our way differently. > > > > Good, that's a bunch of information that you can't use. Now, for some you > > can. There are only 3 numbers which matter, when all the dust is settled. > > They are NOT p/e, d/e, current ratio, PEG, profit margin or inventory > > turnover. > > > > THEY ARE: Price paid for shares, Price received for shares, Time held. > > > > Now, MILSCAN (Canslim to some of you) is a very interesting approach, and > > can possibly, with strong position and money management systems, help you to > > buy low and sell high in a timely timeframe. > > > > Here's how I think of these factors, in descending order of importance: > > > > M is for the market and the market trend. We are at an inflection point > > here, so it's lookout below, or perhaps lookout above. > > > > N is for new highs in the stock, breaking out above the pivot point > > > > L is for an relative strength rating of 70 or better > > > > A is for annual earnings growth (this is for additional comfort) > > > > C is for current quarterly earnings (this is for additional comfort) > > > > I is for institutional sponsorship (this is a timing issue--I think I trust > > the chart over this, for some reason) > > > > S is for supply of stock (looking for a relatively low no. of shares--here I > > want to exclude the over-issued monsters like CSCO and INTC where it will > > take a ton of momentum to move the billions of shares outstanding). > > > > In closing, using TA and FA together is a good idea, but when in conflict, > > trust the TA. Remember, out of 7000 stocks we are looking for 1 or 2 names > > a week on which to carefully place our hopes. As the emperor said, "Ni ban > > zhi, wo fang xin." > > > > DMC > > > > > > > > ----- Original Message ----- > > From: "Yien T Lung" > > To: > > Sent: Monday, August 04, 2003 9:47 AM > > Subject: [CANSLIM] New Investors needs help... a short story > > > > > > > > > > Hi all, > > > > > > I am quite new to this forum and I was hoping that some of you, more > > > experienced canslim users, would kindly offer me some starting tips or > > > share your procedure in the search for new potential buys. > > > > > > Let me continue by sharing my initial experience with you guys. I started > > > investing 2 years ago after my friend recommended me to read books about > > > Value Investing, more specifially, books about Warren Buffett. I read and > > > summarized almost every single book I could get my hands on about Warren > > > Buffett...and was almost too eager to start my road to be a millionaire. > > > > > > So what is value investing? Basically, I intepret it as investing in > > > securities that are currently being traded at a value below its true > > > "intrinsic value". The idea is that the market has been too harsh and > > > pessimist about the prospects of a particular stock,..and you as a > > > investor believes that this company has the potential to get back on track > > > and that the current problems it is facing is only temporary. > > > > > > Sounds easy, but I found the hard way that it is not. > > > > > > In my impulsive and eagerness to make money? I plunged my hard earned cash > > > into securities like Qwest (Q), Tyco (TYC),...among others. I bought Q > > > when it was trading around 8.50. I thought to myself...this is a company > > > that has a book value of at least 20 dollars. If only half of that book > > > value is written off, I will still be safe. So I bought the stock, and saw > > > it plunge in value to less than 1 dollar. Again, I thought it was ok > > > because I am a "value investor"...and I need to hold my buys for the "long > > > run"... A new management comes in and the stocks starts doing better... > > > However, the new management finds out that there are a lot of improver > > > entries and must restate earnings. That restatement totally wipes out the > > > book value of the company!!! This taught me never to believe on BS alone. > > > Now, even after two full years, the stock has not yet recouped to my > > > entry level. > > > > > > My other experience was TYC. I bought it when it was 26. I read a lot of > > > news from respected value managers that Tyco is a very sound company with > > > a lot of small businesses that generate lots of free cash flow. Good hein? > > > Well, I thought so too. I bought it and it went up all the way to 35. I > > > thought, I should "stay for the long run" and let it run its way up.. But > > > the next thing, the stock began to go south. That was the time when there > > > was a lot of talk about the ex CEO being a crook and stuff like that. I > > > held the stock for quite some time...and I will be very hopeful if the > > > stock trades at around the price I got in.... > > > > > > So here I am today. After losing a lot of hard earned cash, I decided to > > > give Mr. O'Neill's methodology a try. If you read some of this value > > > investing, a lot of these people dont believe that technical analysis > > > works..and my friend (a Buffett believer) doesnt think too highly of Mr > > > O'Neills methodology. But I am willing to give it a try. Please help me > > > get started. > > > > > > Thanks > > > > > > Yien > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > - > > > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > > > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > > > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. > > > > > > - > > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. > > > > > - > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ End of canslim-digest V2 #3459 ****************************** To unsubscribe to canslim-digest, send an email to "majordomo@xmission.com" with "unsubscribe canslim-digest" in the body of the message. For information on digests or retrieving files and old messages send "help" to the same address. Do not use quotes in your message.