From: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com (canslim-digest) To: canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Subject: canslim-digest V2 #346 Reply-To: canslim Sender: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Errors-To: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Precedence: bulk X-No-Archive: yes canslim-digest Saturday, August 1 1998 Volume 02 : Number 346 In this issue: Re: [CANSLIM] follow through day calculation [CANSLIM] Shorts RE: [CANSLIM] follow through day calculation Re: [CANSLIM] follow through day calculation RE: [CANSLIM] follow through day calculation RE: [CANSLIM] follow through day calculation RE: [CANSLIM] follow through day calculation Re: [CANSLIM] thousands of stocks rise each day [CANSLIM] follow through count Re: [CANSLIM] follow through count [CANSLIM] earnings release dates and sec filings, and insider buying . Re: [CANSLIM] follow through day calculation [CANSLIM] follow through day confirmation - Mike Lucero RE: [CANSLIM] earnings release dates and sec filings, and insider buying . [CANSLIM] "M" RE: [CANSLIM] "M" ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Date: Fri, 31 Jul 1998 09:11:30 -0700 From: Tim Fisher Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] follow through day calculation Heck with that, although I am following the discussion with much interest (IMHO you all are dissecting M way too finely). Y'know what I noticed yesterday? Lots of stocks that I had got stopped out of that popped up 7-10% off a short term downtrend. Know what scares me? The volume was missing on ALL of them. First I kicked myself for not watching and buying back, then I congratulated myself for refraining from doing anything. Yesterday made me scared more than anything. The broader market is not participating anyway. So I was not surprised at today's reaction to the (relatively) good GDP number. Dunno why anyone else would be (except those morons at Infobeat!). Seriously now, is anyone here ignoring M and still in up to the hilt? I'm in cash except for index funds and a worthless stock. At 07:15 AM 7/31/98 -0700, you wrote: ><counting >from the low day, is day 1 the low day? For Dow and NYSE, with the >lows on >Tuesday, that would that make today day 3. Are we waiting for day 3 or >day >4? I thought the book was confusing on this point, saying something >like to >usually wait for day 3, but wait for day 4 after a major low market >low. (I >don't have my book with me.)>> > >There was quite a bit of discussion on this during the last rally, >along with a discussion of W formations. You may want to look that >stuff up in the archives. > >Whether the bottom day counts also as the first rally day depends at >least in part in what happens during the day. If it closes at or near >the low, it would be more difficult to call it a "rally day" than if >it closed at or near the high. > >But I don't think that what O'N has in mind is for thousands of CSers >to begin counting on their fingers from some set point. This is why >he's so vague about the number of days--four, five, six, whatever. >The point he's trying to get across, I believe, is that the first day >or so of rally can't always be trusted. There's the dead-cat bounce >phenomenon to be considered, along with the possibility or probability >of short-covering, and the only way to know whether the rally attempt >was the result of these phenomena or a genuine buying interest is to >see what happens after the first couple of days. Does it fizzle? Or >is there renewed or continued strength? > >This is also why a rally attempt much later than the first has less >importance--the longer it waits, the less connected it is to the first >rally attempt or bounce. > >Therefore, look not only for an increase in the indices, but also an >increase in volume as he advises. Factor in breadth. Note how many >indices participate. Note the behavior of the leaders. All of this >can give you a sense of how legitimate the rally is and how likely it >is that it will be sustained. In any case, it would not be prudent to >make big-time investments in new positions on the fourth day after the >bottom simply because it happens to be a strong day. > >--Db > Tim Fisher, 1995 President, Pacific Fishery Biologists Ore-ROCK-On Rockhounding Web Site PFB Information mailto:tim@OreRockOn.com WWW http://OreRockOn.com - - ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 31 Jul 1998 11:46:17 -0500 From: Carl Holden Subject: [CANSLIM] Shorts I am getting more interested in shorting and puts EVERY single day. Please count me in if it comes about Thanx! cmholden - - ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 31 Jul 1998 09:50:11 -0700 From: "Mike Lucero" Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] follow through day calculation I'm trying not to ignore M, but I'm still half invested, after being 150% invested on Monday. I thought I'd do better by selling when stocks invidivually (when each stocks rallied and failed, or broke local resistance) rather than selling everything all at once. Mike > -----Original Message----- > From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com > [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Tim Fisher > Sent: Friday, July 31, 1998 9:12 AM > To: canslim@lists.xmission.com > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] follow through day calculation > > > Seriously now, is anyone here > ignoring M and still in up to the hilt? I'm in cash except for > index funds and > a worthless stock. > - - ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 31 Jul 1998 14:03:54 -0400 From: Peter Newell Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] follow through day calculation Last Oct IBD counted the bottom days so I would assume yesterday counts. What I found interesting was that you could have distribution in the middle and it count. To me a rally should be decisive and broad. IMHO, this rally was much narrower than all the others and is a stronger indication of a top either long/short term. I also beleive based on past events that it is way to soon for a new rally to start. Look at last year from Aug-Oct Same thing correction for a month a great rally and down we go. Timing is almost identical here. - ---------- > From: dbphoenix > To: canslim@lists.xmission.com > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] follow through day calculation > Date: Friday, July 31, 1998 10:15 AM > > < counting > from the low day, is day 1 the low day? For Dow and NYSE, with the > lows on > Tuesday, that would that make today day 3. Are we waiting for day 3 or > day > 4? I thought the book was confusing on this point, saying something > like to > usually wait for day 3, but wait for day 4 after a major low market > low. (I > don't have my book with me.)>> > > There was quite a bit of discussion on this during the last rally, > along with a discussion of W formations. You may want to look that > stuff up in the archives. > > Whether the bottom day counts also as the first rally day depends at > least in part in what happens during the day. If it closes at or near > the low, it would be more difficult to call it a "rally day" than if > it closed at or near the high. > > But I don't think that what O'N has in mind is for thousands of CSers > to begin counting on their fingers from some set point. This is why > he's so vague about the number of days--four, five, six, whatever. > The point he's trying to get across, I believe, is that the first day > or so of rally can't always be trusted. There's the dead-cat bounce > phenomenon to be considered, along with the possibility or probability > of short-covering, and the only way to know whether the rally attempt > was the result of these phenomena or a genuine buying interest is to > see what happens after the first couple of days. Does it fizzle? Or > is there renewed or continued strength? > > This is also why a rally attempt much later than the first has less > importance--the longer it waits, the less connected it is to the first > rally attempt or bounce. > > Therefore, look not only for an increase in the indices, but also an > increase in volume as he advises. Factor in breadth. Note how many > indices participate. Note the behavior of the leaders. All of this > can give you a sense of how legitimate the rally is and how likely it > is that it will be sustained. In any case, it would not be prudent to > make big-time investments in new positions on the fourth day after the > bottom simply because it happens to be a strong day. > > --Db > > > > > > > > _________________________________________________________ > DO YOU YAHOO!? > Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com > > > - - - ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 31 Jul 1998 11:29:05 -0700 (PDT) From: dbphoenix Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] follow through day calculation <> I agree. There's no reason to sell everything you have just because the market declines by a few percentage points. As long as your stocks are holding or even rising, why sell them? Thousands of stocks rise every day. Taking new positions, on the other hand, is another matter entirely. For that you want at least some assurance that the wind is at your back, not in your face. - --Db _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - - ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 31 Jul 1998 12:03:40 -0700 From: Tim Fisher Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] follow through day calculation Hmmm, I assumed you were using WON stops. Guess not. I was, and I'm decidedly O*U*T. At 11:29 AM 7/31/98 -0700, you wrote: ><150% >invested on Monday. I thought I'd do better by selling when stocks >invidivually (when each stocks rallied and failed, or broke local >resistance) rather than selling everything all at once. > >Mike>> > Tim Fisher, 1995 President, Pacific Fishery Biologists Ore-ROCK-On Rockhounding Web Site PFB Information mailto:tim@OreRockOn.com WWW http://OreRockOn.com - - ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 31 Jul 1998 12:55:16 -0700 From: "Mike Lucero" Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] follow through day calculation I would have been much better off to sell last week, but I missed the signals, and now I'm trying to make the most of my positions. I think I sold 8/10 today so far. I got out in time in April, and it feels much better to do that. Mike > -----Original Message----- > From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com > [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Tim Fisher > Sent: Friday, July 31, 1998 12:04 PM > To: canslim@lists.xmission.com > Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] follow through day calculation > > > Hmmm, I assumed you were using WON stops. Guess not. I was, and > I'm decidedly > O*U*T. > > At 11:29 AM 7/31/98 -0700, you wrote: > >< >150% > >invested on Monday. I thought I'd do better by selling when stocks > >invidivually (when each stocks rallied and failed, or broke local > >resistance) rather than selling everything all at once. > > > >Mike>> > > > > Tim Fisher, 1995 President, Pacific Fishery Biologists > Ore-ROCK-On Rockhounding Web Site > PFB Information > mailto:tim@OreRockOn.com > WWW http://OreRockOn.com > > - > - - ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 31 Jul 1998 17:01:37 -0400 From: Peter Newell Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] thousands of stocks rise each day >Thousands of stocks rise every day. > --Db Most days anyhow ;) Sorry it's late Peter Newell - - ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 31 Jul 1998 17:33:02 -0400 From: Jeffry White <"postwhit@sover.net"@sover.net> Subject: [CANSLIM] follow through count Db wrote: > But I don't think that what O'N has in mind is for thousands of CSers > to begin counting on their fingers from some set point. This is why > he's so vague about the number of days--four, five, six, whatever. > The point he's trying to get across, I believe, is that the first day > or so of rally can't always be trusted. There's the dead-cat bounce > phenomenon to be considered, along with the possibility or probability > of short-covering, and the only way to know whether the rally attempt > was the result of these phenomena or a genuine buying interest is to > see what happens after the first couple of days. Does it fizzle? Or > is there renewed or continued strength? > Mike, I completely disagree with Db's comments quoted above. I believe he misinterprets the follow through count section of HTMMIS (granted, it's not the best written passage in the book). I was taught, have personally seen finger counting confirmation, reviewed back tested computerized data confirmation and had it confirmed by WON that the count is mechanical from the low. Regardless of whether the low is a reversal (although they work best when volume is higher than the prior day), or a low which has closed dead ass on the low of the day (like today in the Nasdaq). The count starts the following day as "day 1", unless of course it makes a lower low than the prior day. If, and only if, the index has a follow through day within the 3-10 day window following the most recent low, it is the confirmation you are looking for. How long the uptrend will last, however, is anybody's guess (see my comments on sentiment herein). CANSLIM'ers count on their fingers from a set point, absolutely, end of story. The most recent low, period. Don't count from any other spot off the lows, just the low. Resist the temptation to "think" about it, just count. WON doesn't provide a range of days (the 3-10 day window) in an effort to be "vague", he does it because that is what his study shows. Confirmation of a sustained market turn to the upside comes rather predictably when the index makes a 1% on volume move, 3-10 days from the most recent low in the down trend. Days 4,5,6 and 7 are most reliable. This is gospel, and if you don't treat it as such, it will make no sense and you'll start struggling with a bunch of technical noise and supposition about trendlines, MACD, EMA's, GDP, ECI, wha-wha-wha-wa-wa.... There can be false signals, however, so don't just haul off and buy a collection of stocks on the follow through day. I look at the sentiment numbers for some confirmation. If we have a follow through day off today's lows, for example, the sentiment will probably make it short lived. This happened twice after the October 1997 crash before sentiment finally supported the rally in late January. Look for sentiment numbers on the order of 52 week marks (as set out in IBD on Thursday) before marching heavily into the market, even on a mechanically counted follow through day. I will often test the waters with maybe 20% of my account if we get a follow through day with sentiment which is outside the optimal ranges. But, I'm quick to look for a failure. I'll look back in the chart, but I think we had a situation like this in April of this year where sentiment was high and we had a follow through off a low. See if you can find it, and remind me if I don't post it within a day or two. Keep counting those fingers, Michael. Jeffry - - ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 31 Jul 1998 16:34:57 -0700 (PDT) From: dbphoenix Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] follow through count <> <> <> <> I'm confused by your comments. The count is mechanical, but it may not mean much in terms of the sustainability of the move. On the other hand, confirmation of a sustained move is predictable. But these signals can be false. But one shouldn't think about what one is doing, though one should look to sentiment numbers. In what ways do you find all of this less vague and more reliable than charts? - --Db _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - - ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 31 Jul 1998 20:18:17 EDT From: Subject: [CANSLIM] earnings release dates and sec filings, and insider buying . Hello group, I heard off another discussion group which is not nearly as reliable as this group that there is an SEC regulation regarding posting earnings results. My question is what is the SEC regulation and if companys report earnings late after the quarter ends, is it normally due to having a bad quarter. Another question is if there is no news released between earnings by the company is it generally a bad sign. Also if insiders are buying stock are there any things to be concerned about, such as number of shares being purchased and during which quarter the shares are purchased. Any advice would be helpful and appreciated. Thanks Frank - - ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 31 Jul 1998 21:14:12 -0500 From: Dave Cameron Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] follow through day calculation Ditto to Mike's comments. I'm letting my individual stocks take me out. I sold one at a loss, and am about 70% invested. Dave Cameron dfcameron@ameritech.net Mike Lucero wrote: > > I'm trying not to ignore M, but I'm still half invested, after being 150% > invested on Monday. I thought I'd do better by selling when stocks > invidivually (when each stocks rallied and failed, or broke local > resistance) rather than selling everything all at once. > > Mike > > > -----Original Message----- > > From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com > > [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Tim Fisher > > Sent: Friday, July 31, 1998 9:12 AM > > To: canslim@lists.xmission.com > > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] follow through day calculation > > > > > > Seriously now, is anyone here > > ignoring M and still in up to the hilt? I'm in cash except for > > index funds and > > a worthless stock. > > > > - - - ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 31 Jul 1998 17:55:22 -0400 From: Jeffry White <"postwhit@sover.net"@sover.net> Subject: [CANSLIM] follow through day confirmation - Mike Lucero Mike, Take a look at April 15, 1998 on the Nasdaq. We followed through with 1% on volume 5 days after the most recent low. However, sentiment was running at near 5 year extremes. (Bears made that mark at 22.6% on April 6, 1998 and Bulls set a 52 week mark on April 27). Then on April 22 we had a giant distribution day, and the whole shooting match was over until June 23. Jeffry - - ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 31 Jul 1998 21:38:23 -0400 From: "Nelson E. Timken, Esq." Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] earnings release dates and sec filings, and insider buying . Just curious Frank...which group was that? Nelson E. Timken http://onelist.com/subscribe.cgi/investing-list - -----Original Message----- From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Mulack@aol.com Sent: Friday, July 31, 1998 8:18 PM To: canslim@xmission.com Subject: [CANSLIM] earnings release dates and sec filings, and insider buying . Hello group, I heard off another discussion group which is not nearly as reliable as this group that there is an SEC regulation regarding posting earnings results. My question is what is the SEC regulation and if companys report earnings late after the quarter ends, is it normally due to having a bad quarter. Another question is if there is no news released between earnings by the company is it generally a bad sign. Also if insiders are buying stock are there any things to be concerned about, such as number of shares being purchased and during which quarter the shares are purchased. Any advice would be helpful and appreciated. Thanks Frank - - - - ------------------------------ Date: Sat, 1 Aug 1998 11:05:26 -0400 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] "M" As one further comment from a lurker on "M" as it applies to CS type stocks, there were only 87 stocks in the Daily Graphs books that hit a new high this past week. Don't remember when the total was last so low. Tom W - - ------------------------------ Date: Sat, 1 Aug 1998 12:22:59 -0400 From: "Nelson E. Timken, Esq." Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] "M" Probably the last bear market, Tom. Losers outnumbered winners 3-1 on Friday. The only winner last week I can recall was Clorox, which surprised with good earnings and went up 8. The only way a stock goes up significantly is to announce earnings far exceeding those expected...then you get heavily rewarded. But announce poor earnings or that things are slowing (ala PG) and watch how they mow you down. It's brutal out there. Nelson E. Timken http://onelist.com/subscribe.cgi/investing-list - -----Original Message----- From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Tom Worley Sent: Saturday, August 01, 1998 11:05 AM To: canslim@xmission.com Subject: [CANSLIM] "M" As one further comment from a lurker on "M" as it applies to CS type stocks, there were only 87 stocks in the Daily Graphs books that hit a new high this past week. Don't remember when the total was last so low. Tom W - - - - ------------------------------ End of canslim-digest V2 #346 ***************************** To unsubscribe to canslim-digest, send an email to "majordomo@xmission.com" with "unsubscribe canslim-digest" in the body of the message. For information on digests or retrieving files and old messages send "help" to the same address. Do not use quotes in your message.