Message

From: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com (canslim-digest) To: canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Subject: canslim-digest V2 #3499 Reply-To: canslim Sender: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Errors-To: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Precedence: bulk Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable X-No-Archive: yes canslim-digest Monday, August 11 2003 Volume 02 : Number 3499 In this issue: RE: [CANSLIM] a random thought Re: [CANSLIM] LEND RE: [CANSLIM] a random thought RE: [CANSLIM] short selling (WEBX) RE: [CANSLIM] short selling (WEBX) [CANSLIM] Amateur Investors Weekend Market Analysis [CANSLIM] Accumulation / Distribution formula Re: [CANSLIM] Accumulation / Distribution formula Re: [CANSLIM] Accumulation / Distribution formula [CANSLIM] M ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Date: Mon, 11 Aug 2003 07:42:54 -0500 From: "Katherine Malm" Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] a random thought This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------=_NextPart_000_002D_01C35FDC.2CE0A6F0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="us-ascii" Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit Hi Jeff, In my experience, the A/D is a decent tool when buying into a long position (limiting buys to A, B or C) but it's a lousy indicator of tops. I remember in the March of 2000 that all the top stocks still had an "A" rating long after they'd crashed off their tops. The 13 weeks included in the indicator makes is a lagging indicator in my mind, too slow to catch the very near term price action in a stock that often triggers sell rules. The IBD says they don't see it as a lagging indicator and that it is one of their "fastest." Faster? Yes, faster than RS (52 weeks) or GRS (26 weeks), but not "non-lagging" in my opinion. Katherine -----Original Message----- From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Jeff Henderson Sent: Monday, August 11, 2003 6:27 AM To: Canslim Subject: [CANSLIM] a random thought I was thinking that accumulation/distributor indicator seems to be a valuable tool if there is a lot (for lack of a better term) of institutional sponsorship. What do y'all think? Jeff H. - ------=_NextPart_000_002D_01C35FDC.2CE0A6F0 Content-Type: text/html; charset="us-ascii" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable

Hi Jeff,

In my experience, the A/D is a = decent tool=20 when buying into a long position (limiting buys to A, B or C) but it's a = lousy=20 indicator of tops. I remember in the March of 2000 that all the top = stocks=20 still had an "A" rating long after they'd crashed off their tops. The 13 = weeks=20 included in the indicator makes is a lagging indicator in my mind, too = slow to=20 catch the very near term price action in a stock that often triggers = sell=20 rules.

The IBD says they don't see it as = a lagging=20 indicator and that it is one of their "fastest." Faster? Yes, faster = than RS (52=20 weeks) or GRS (26 weeks), but not "non-lagging" in my = opinion.

Katherine

-----Original Message-----
From:=20 owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com=20 [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Jeff=20 Henderson
Sent: Monday, August 11, 2003 6:27 = AM
To:=20 Canslim
Subject: [CANSLIM] a random = thought

I was thinking that=20 accumulation/distributor indicator seems to be a valuable tool if = there is a=20 lot (for lack of a better term) of institutional sponsorship. What do y’all = think? =

Jeff=20 H.

- ------=_NextPart_000_002D_01C35FDC.2CE0A6F0-- - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 11 Aug 2003 07:56:20 -0500 From: michael_niemotka@baxter.com Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] LEND Why did you place a stop loss so low relative to your gain at $26? For whatever it is worth, after I am up more that 30% , I put a stop loss for a part of my position at a 10% loss, another at 15% and a final at 20% so that you can lock in profits. Mike Mike Niemotka , PE Sr. Principal Engineer Baxter Healthcare Corporation Route 120 & Wilson Road Round Lake, IL 60073 Tel (847) 270-4075 Fax (847) 270-4525 michael_niemotka@baxter.com "Bistricer, Avi" To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Sent by: cc: owner-canslim@lists.xm Subject: [CANSLIM] LEND ission.com 08/08/2003 09:50 AM Please respond to canslim Any opinion on LEND at this point. I was lucky and got in at 13.5 and see it all the way to 26+ I did not sell when it went down for 7 days or so. I put stop loss at 15 and flushed out at 14.60 or so most profit evaporated. It is now going up. what is the lesson ? Avi Bistricer, DBA 212.460.6695 bistricera@coned.com - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 11 Aug 2003 08:04:33 -0500 From: "Fred Richards" Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] a random thought This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------=_NextPart_000_001B_01C35FDF.38819CF0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="us-ascii" Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit Katherine is quite correct about using the A/D to help identify stocks to consider and possibly add to one's portfolio. I rely on setting up an alert and/or stop loss point using a trailing stop to protect my position profits. Then, if we get stopped out of a position, we consider re-buying the position when the stock regains the stop loss point if the basic fundamentals and other technical aspects remain within our overall criteria. If not, we pass on re-buying. - -----Original Message----- From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com] On Behalf Of Katherine Malm Sent: Monday, August 11, 2003 7:43 AM To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] a random thought Hi Jeff, In my experience, the A/D is a decent tool when buying into a long position (limiting buys to A, B or C) but it's a lousy indicator of tops. I remember in the March of 2000 that all the top stocks still had an "A" rating long after they'd crashed off their tops. The 13 weeks included in the indicator makes is a lagging indicator in my mind, too slow to catch the very near term price action in a stock that often triggers sell rules. The IBD says they don't see it as a lagging indicator and that it is one of their "fastest." Faster? Yes, faster than RS (52 weeks) or GRS (26 weeks), but not "non-lagging" in my opinion. Katherine - -----Original Message----- From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Jeff Henderson Sent: Monday, August 11, 2003 6:27 AM To: Canslim Subject: [CANSLIM] a random thought I was thinking that accumulation/distributor indicator seems to be a valuable tool if there is a lot (for lack of a better term) of institutional sponsorship. What do y'all think? Jeff H. - ------=_NextPart_000_001B_01C35FDF.38819CF0 Content-Type: text/html; charset="us-ascii" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Message

Katherine is quite correct about using the A/D to help identify = stocks to=20 consider and possibly add to one's portfolio. I rely on setting up = an=20 alert and/or stop loss point using a trailing stop to protect my = position=20 profits. Then, if we get stopped out of a position, we consider = re-buying=20 the position when the stock regains the stop loss point if the basic=20 fundamentals and other technical aspects remain within our overall=20 criteria. If not, we pass on re-buying.

-----Original Message-----
From:=20 owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com = [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]=20 On Behalf Of Katherine Malm
Sent: Monday, August 11, = 2003=20 7:43 AM
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
Subject: = RE:=20 [CANSLIM] a random thought

Hi Jeff,

In my experience, the A/D is a = decent tool=20 when buying into a long position (limiting buys to A, B or C) but it's = a lousy=20 indicator of tops. I remember in the March of 2000 that all = the top=20 stocks still had an "A" rating long after they'd crashed off their = tops. The=20 13 weeks included in the indicator makes is a lagging indicator in my = mind,=20 too slow to catch the very near term price action in a stock that = often=20 triggers sell rules.

The IBD says they don't see it = as a=20 lagging indicator and that it is one of their "fastest." Faster? Yes, = faster=20 than RS (52 weeks) or GRS (26 weeks), but not "non-lagging" in my=20 opinion.

Katherine

-----Original Message-----
From:=20 owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com=20 [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Jeff=20 Henderson
Sent: Monday, August 11, 2003 6:27 = AM
To:=20 Canslim
Subject: [CANSLIM] a random = thought

I was thinking that=20 accumulation/distributor indicator seems to be a valuable tool if = there is a=20 lot (for lack of a better term) of institutional sponsorship. What do y’all = think? =

Jeff=20 = H.

- ------=_NextPart_000_001B_01C35FDF.38819CF0-- - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 11 Aug 2003 09:43:26 -0400 From: Mike Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] short selling (WEBX) >> ... Keep it simple. << Does it make sense to hedge a CANSLIM portfolio against an index? CANSLIM intent is to outperform the average in an up M. Can we also assume that when the M is down the best will drop less, if so then in theory, with hedging there will be profit either way. Hedging of course eats profits and better to trade directionally in general. Adding a hedging position provides safety for less commission than closing and reopening the whole portfolio. Futures are my vehicle but for more commission we can short an index or buy a managed fund like BEARX. Keeping the CANSLIM portfolio intact and working per it's rules, of course if the M is down then CANSLIM gets out, but there are high risk periods like now where the M could be seen as consolidating without confirmation either way. Mike - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 11 Aug 2003 10:40:47 -0400 From: Mike Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] short selling (WEBX) >> how one (or I) would go about screening for failed tops << Maybe a scan to find stocks with; (the shorter term volatility) when divided by (longer term volatility) is greater than some variable. A break of consolidation. If it's an up or down bo needs more filter like with MA, more filter to eliminate the funny stuff penny stocks. Anyway I think that could sort out some failing tops, some that on visual inspection will confirm a double top, volume surge of redistribution, indications of diverging strength ... Mike At 8/11/2003 07:08 AM, you wrote: >Hi Harold (and all), > >Let's do this for the sake of discussion on the subject. Instead of me >simply listing how one (or I) would go about screening for failed tops, let >me ask of the group a preliminary question: > >What does a stock look like technically when it is *at* a top? > >Add your thoughts....everything that you know about the technicals of a >stock that may be at its peak. Again, the underlying assumption is that for >the purposes of screening, fundamentals do not matter. These signals are all >technical. > >After that discussion is exhausted, then I'll ask a follow-on question. > >Katherine - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 11 Aug 2003 10:32:28 -0500 From: "Gene Ricci" Subject: [CANSLIM] Amateur Investors Weekend Market Analysis This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------=_NextPart_000_0385_01C35FF3.DD1DB870 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Couple of charts to look at. Gene - ----- Original Message -----=20 From: Amateur Investors=20 To: genr@swbell.net=20 Sent: Saturday, August 09, 2003 1:18 PM Subject: Amateur Investors Weekend Market Analysis Our latest Weekend Market Analysis is at http://www.amateur-investors.com/Weekend_Market_Analysis8_9_03.htm If this link isn't clickable then cut and paste it into your browser to = display the newsletter. Signup today for a "Free" 2 Week Trial Membership and have access to our = Stocks to Watch List and Daily Email Breakout Reports. For more details = click on the link below. =20 http://www.amateur-investors.com/Membership_Page1.htm Amateur-Investors.Com - -------------------------------------------------------------------------= - --- - ------=_NextPart_000_0385_01C35FF3.DD1DB870 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable

Couple of charts to look = at.

Gene

----- Original Message -----=20

From: Amateur = Investors=20

To: genr@swbell.net

Sent: Saturday, August 09, 2003 1:18 PM

Subject: Amateur Investors Weekend Market = Analysis

Our latest Weekend Market Analysis is at
http://www.amateur-investors.com/Weekend_Market_Analysis8_9_03.htm=

If=20 this link isn't clickable then cut and paste it into your browser to = display the=20 newsletter.

Signup today for a "Free" 2 Week Trial Membership and = have=20 access to our Stocks to Watch List and Daily Email Breakout = Reports. For=20 more details click on the link below.

http://www= .amateur-investors.com/Membership_Page1.htm

Amateur-Investors.= Com

--------------------------------------------------------------= - --------------

- ------=_NextPart_000_0385_01C35FF3.DD1DB870-- - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 11 Aug 2003 08:55:42 -0700 (PDT) From: Peter Dugan Subject: [CANSLIM] Accumulation / Distribution formula Hello all, I'm trying to write my own "stock screening" program. I have Open,Close,High,Low,Volume and some data related to earnings. Does anybody know a good formula to find/get the Accumulation/Distribution for an individual stock? WON has been mentioning his formula in HTMMIS as a propietary formula so I guess I can't use the one he is using or at least he won't let us know how he did it. Thanks, Peter __________________________________ Do you Yahoo!? Yahoo! SiteBuilder - Free, easy-to-use web site design software http://sitebuilder.yahoo.com - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 11 Aug 2003 09:51:46 -0700 From: "DMC197807" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Accumulation / Distribution formula Peter, What kind of stock screener are you using? On TC2K you can use "balance of power" which is a proprietary accum/dist indicator. On Stockcharts you can program a scan to look for the accum/dist line to be above (or below) a certain level. DMC - ----- Original Message ----- From: "Peter Dugan" To: Sent: Monday, August 11, 2003 8:55 AM Subject: [CANSLIM] Accumulation / Distribution formula > Hello all, > > I'm trying to write my own "stock screening" program. > I have Open,Close,High,Low,Volume and some data > related to earnings. > > Does anybody know a good formula to find/get the > Accumulation/Distribution for an individual stock? > WON has been mentioning his formula in HTMMIS as a > propietary formula so I guess I can't use the one he > is using or at least he won't let us know how he did > it. > > Thanks, > > Peter > > __________________________________ > Do you Yahoo!? > Yahoo! SiteBuilder - Free, easy-to-use web site design software > http://sitebuilder.yahoo.com > > - > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 11 Aug 2003 10:52:12 -0700 (PDT) From: Peter Dugan Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Accumulation / Distribution formula Hi DMC, I'm writing my own program using Microsoft .NET environment, so it's not like TC2K or any other commercial software, I have my own data and I'm trying to write some code to get the A/D and some other info from my data. I have seen TC2K and I know that the BOP is the propietary A/D of Worden Brothers, they somehow had a formula to find the A/D, that's what I wanted to know. Peter. - --- DMC197807 wrote: > Peter, > > What kind of stock screener are you using? > > On TC2K you can use "balance of power" which is a > proprietary accum/dist > indicator. > > On Stockcharts you can program a scan to look for > the accum/dist line to be > above (or below) a certain level. > > DMC > > ----- Original Message ----- > From: "Peter Dugan" > To: > Sent: Monday, August 11, 2003 8:55 AM > Subject: [CANSLIM] Accumulation / Distribution > formula > > > > Hello all, > > > > I'm trying to write my own "stock screening" > program. > > I have Open,Close,High,Low,Volume and some data > > related to earnings. > > > > Does anybody know a good formula to find/get the > > Accumulation/Distribution for an individual stock? > > WON has been mentioning his formula in HTMMIS as a > > propietary formula so I guess I can't use the one > he > > is using or at least he won't let us know how he > did > > it. > > > > Thanks, > > > > Peter > > > > __________________________________ > > Do you Yahoo!? > > Yahoo! SiteBuilder - Free, easy-to-use web site > design software > > http://sitebuilder.yahoo.com > > > > - > > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email > "majordomo@xmission.com" > > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your > email. > > > - > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email > "majordomo@xmission.com" > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. __________________________________ Do you Yahoo!? Yahoo! SiteBuilder - Free, easy-to-use web site design software http://sitebuilder.yahoo.com - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 11 Aug 2003 13:06:51 -0500 From: "Gene Ricci" Subject: [CANSLIM] M This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------=_NextPart_000_06B4_01C36009.6DF74680 Content-Type: multipart/alternative; boundary="----=_NextPart_001_06B5_01C36009.6DF74680" - ------=_NextPart_001_06B5_01C36009.6DF74680 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable DMC, maybe the best position ahead of this FED meeting is probably no = position. There is no volume today..... May not make a billion shares = on either exchange at this rate! Check out the attached, the % over 50 DMA slide suggests we're not so = overbought as we hear. Gene ----- Original Message -----=20 From: DMC197807=20 To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20 Sent: Sunday, August 10, 2003 6:00 PM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] for Short Selling Mighty quiet out there. Further on the M! Thang, for those who are interested. Here is the = Naz 100 bullish percentage index: = http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=3D$BPNDX,uu[h,a]dbclniay[de][= pc13!c20!f][vc60][i]&pref=3DG Most recently it was higher than it's been in relevant history (here, = you can see it in the weekly): = http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=3D$BPNDX,uu[h,a]wbclniay[df][= pc13!c20!f][vc60][i]&pref=3DG Its recent rating of 91 is just astounding Here's the Dow: = http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=3D$bpINDU,uu[h,a]dbclniay[df]= [pc13!c20!f][vc60][i]&pref=3DG And the BP for the SPX: = http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=3D$BPspx,uu[h,a]dbclniay[df][= pc13!c20!f][vc60][i]&pref=3DG We are definitely picking up a unform pattern of highs not seen before = (translation: everything is as bullish as possible, meaning there's = just one way to go. if you can't get more bullish, it's the top). While you have the SPX chart open, just look at the 3 previous spikes = of 77 (April 2002), 59.80 (Aug 2002) and 68.40 (Dec. 2002), and look = back to what the SPX did after those moments: = http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=3D$SPX,uu[h,a]dbclniay[df][pc= 13!c20!f][vc60][i]&pref=3DG 77 (April 2002)--SPX went from 1150 to 775 in 5 months. 59.80 (Aug 2002)--SPX went from 965 to 768 in 1.5 months 68.40 (Dec. 2002)--SPX went from 950 to 800 in 3 months. Anyway, it's all very interesting to look at, isn't it? Elliot Wavers = might see this overly bullish scenario as the setup for yet another = 3-count wave down. I don't really subscribe to EW stuff, but, like = FIbonacci and Gann, it's useful to at least think about. The last EW = pattern, if you believe this stuff, took the SPX down from 1500 to 768, = or a 50% retrace. This one, starting at 1015.40, could do some similar = damage and take us down to 565-775 over a 12 month period. Some bearish = reports I've see predict a SPX fall to the mid 600s before year end. Otoh, we're in the 3rd political year, and 3 and 4 are notoriously = good. And, if you do a big Fibo study on the SPX since its base in 1995 = at about 440, we've already done a 38% retrace (back to the 62% line). = http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=3D$spx,uu[h,a]mbclniay[pc13!c= 20!f][vc60][i][J15983278,Y]&pref=3DG All things to think about on a nice, calm, summer Sunday's evening. DMC ----- Original Message -----=20 From: WJH=20 To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20 Sent: Sunday, August 10, 2003 10:00 AM Subject: Fw: [CANSLIM] for Short Selling Sounds interesting. From: DMC197807=20 To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20 Sent: Saturday, August 09, 2003 6:41 PM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] for Short Selling Rolf & Mark, My vote (if I get a vote) is why not discuss how to use canslim = ideas to generate potential shorts? It's not like this little epistolary = group hasn't gone off the track since I've been here (about 10 trading = days), and it's not like it takes a lifetime to figure out Canslim in any = event. It's really rather simple, and with the help of computers it's almost = too easy. The real difficulty lies in disciplining oneself to limit or get = rid of longs in sideways and topping markets, and be willing to reenter = when the market's correction has ended and stocks are ready to rise again. = You can find the names of candidates very easily for a little coin paid = for a subscription to IBD and/or a subscription to canslim.net. For short discussions, let's just use the above referenced subject = line "Re: [CANSLIM] for Short Selling" and the purists like Fanus et al (so far it seems to be all Fanus) = can either eyeball them and delete them, or even program their Outlook = Express to pre-delete all messages on the peripheral topic. I think it would be helpful to understand what kind of screen = would generate the opposite of good longs in a bad market, if only for academic, mind-sharpening purposes. After all, if in traditional canslim = technique you are looking for 1 or 2 stocks to buy per week in a good (M!) = market, then why not reverse the order in a bad (M!) market. With that in mind, I'd like to explore what kinds of things people = think would indicate a dangerous market, knowing in advance that calling = a top is one of the hardest things to do BUT that falls tend to be so much = more precipitous than climbs that there's gold in those hills if you = can time it right and buy a put to get into position. In any event, VTO has provided a very handy site with lots of = sentiment indicators: http://www.vtoreport.com/sentiment/cot.htm If you click on Sentiment and Bull/Bear you can see a very wide = gap between bullish and bearish advisors, the kind which indicates a = correction is coming. I'd say anytime you see a gap of 25% or more (with the = bulls on top) you are looking at a dangerous situation. The Put/Call ratio has been very low and is now climbing. Again = danger. The VIX has been unnaturally low for a long time, another coiled = spring. For COTS, I prefer to use the Quasimodos.com site: http://www.quasimodos.com/marketrider/technical.php The articles are interesting, and to get the reports and COTs = page, click here: http://www.quasimodos.com/marketrider/charts.php You can't paste the sites, but the first 3 on the right, for the = Dow, the Naz and the SPX have a very interesting graphic display of the = traders' positions. I don't know exactly what the timing is on these but = the smart money seems to be betting against this market continuing, while = the small speculators keep piling on the positions. Good bull markets (like = the one we had from March to June) often begin with very small bars. DMC - ------=_NextPart_001_06B5_01C36009.6DF74680 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable

DMC, maybe the best position = ahead of=20 this FED meeting is probably no position. There is no volume=20 today..... May not make a billion shares on either exchange at = this=20 rate!

Check out the attached, the % = over 50 DMA=20 slide suggests we're not so overbought as we hear.

Gene

----- Original Message -----
From:=20 DMC197807
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=

Sent: Sunday, August 10, 2003 = 6:00=20 PM

Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] for = Short=20 Selling

Mighty quiet out there.

Further on the M! Thang, for those = who are=20 interested. Here is the Naz 100 bullish percentage = index:

http://stockcharts.com/def/ser= vlet/SC.web?c=3D$BPNDX,uu[h,a]dbclniay[de][pc13!c20!f][vc60][i]&pref=3D= G

Most recently it was higher than it's = been in=20 relevant history (here, you can see it in the weekly):

http://stockcharts.com/def/ser= vlet/SC.web?c=3D$BPNDX,uu[h,a]wbclniay[df][pc13!c20!f][vc60][i]&pref=3D= G

Its recent rating of 91 is just=20 astounding

Here's the Dow:

http://stockcharts.com/def/se= rvlet/SC.web?c=3D$bpINDU,uu[h,a]dbclniay[df][pc13!c20!f][vc60][i]&pre= f=3DG

And the BP for the SPX:

http://stockcharts.com/def/ser= vlet/SC.web?c=3D$BPspx,uu[h,a]dbclniay[df][pc13!c20!f][vc60][i]&pref=3D= G

We are definitely picking up a unform = pattern of=20 highs not seen before (translation: everything is as bullish as=20 possible, meaning there's just one way to go. if you can't get = more=20 bullish, it's the top).

While you have the SPX chart open, = just look at=20 the 3 previous spikes of 77 (April 2002), 59.80 (Aug 2002) and = 68.40=20 (Dec. 2002), and look back to what the SPX did after those=20 moments:

http://stockcharts.com/def/servl= et/SC.web?c=3D$SPX,uu[h,a]dbclniay[df][pc13!c20!f][vc60][i]&pref=3DG<= /A>

77 (April 2002)--SPX went from 1150 = to 775 in 5=20 months.

59.80 (Aug 2002)--SPX went = from 965=20 to 768 in 1.5 months

68.40 (Dec. 2002)--SPX went = from 950=20 to 800 in 3 months.

Anyway, it's all very interesting to = look at,=20 isn't it? Elliot Wavers might see this overly bullish scenario = as the=20 setup for yet another 3-count wave down. I don't really = subscribe to EW=20 stuff, but, like FIbonacci and Gann, it's useful to at least think=20 about. The last EW pattern, if you believe this stuff, took the = SPX down=20 from 1500 to 768, or a 50% retrace. This one, starting at = 1015.40, could=20 do some similar damage and take us down to 565-775 over a 12 month=20 period. Some bearish reports I've see predict a SPX fall to the = mid 600s=20 before year end.

Otoh, we're in the 3rd political = year, and 3 and=20 4 are notoriously good. And, if you do a big Fibo study on the = SPX since=20 its base in 1995 at about 440, we've already done a 38% retrace (back = to the=20 62% line).

http://stockcharts.com/= def/servlet/SC.web?c=3D$spx,uu[h,a]mbclniay[pc13!c20!f][vc60][i][J1598327= 8,Y]&pref=3DG

All things to think about on a nice, = calm, summer=20 Sunday's evening.

DMC

----- Original Message -----
From:=20 WJH
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com= =20

Sent: Sunday, August 10, 2003 = 10:00=20 AM

Subject: Fw: [CANSLIM] for = Short=20 Selling

Sounds interesting.

From:=20 DMC197807
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com= =20

Sent: Saturday, August 09, = 2003 6:41=20 PM

Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] for = Short=20 Selling

Rolf & Mark,

My vote (if I get a vote) = is why=20 not discuss how to use canslim ideas to
generate potential=20 shorts? It's not like this little epistolary group
hasn't = gone=20 off the track since I've been here (about 10 trading days), = and
it's=20 not like it takes a lifetime to figure out Canslim in any = event. =20 It's
really rather simple, and with the help of computers it's = almost=20 too easy.
The real difficulty lies in disciplining oneself to = limit or=20 get rid of
longs in sideways and topping markets, and be = willing to=20 reenter when the
market's correction has ended and stocks are = ready to=20 rise again. You can
find the names of candidates very = easily for=20 a little coin paid for a
subscription to IBD and/or a = subscription to=20 canslim.net.

For short discussions, let's just use the = above=20 referenced subject line
"Re: [CANSLIM] for Short = Selling"

and=20 the purists like Fanus et al (so far it seems to be all Fanus)=20 can
either eyeball them and delete them, or even program their = Outlook=20 Express
to pre-delete all messages on the peripheral = topic.

I=20 think it would be helpful to understand what kind of screen would=20 generate
the opposite of good longs in a bad market, if only = for=20 academic,
mind-sharpening purposes. After all, if in = traditional=20 canslim technique
you are looking for 1 or 2 stocks to buy per = week in=20 a good (M!) market,
then why not reverse the order in a bad = (M!)=20 market.

With that in mind, I'd like to explore what kinds = of things=20 people think
would indicate a dangerous market, knowing in = advance that=20 calling a top is
one of the hardest things to do BUT that falls = tend to=20 be so much more
precipitous than climbs that there's gold in = those=20 hills if you can time it
right and buy a put to get into=20 position.

In any event, VTO has provided a very handy site = with=20 lots of sentiment
indicators:

http://www.vtoreport.= com/sentiment/cot.htm

If=20 you click on Sentiment and Bull/Bear you can see a very wide gap=20 between
bullish and bearish advisors, the kind which indicates = a=20 correction is
coming. I'd say anytime you see a gap of = 25% or=20 more (with the bulls on
top) you are looking at a dangerous=20 situation.

The Put/Call ratio has been very low and is now=20 climbing. Again danger.

The VIX has been unnaturally = low for=20 a long time, another coiled spring.

For COTS, I prefer to = use the=20 Quasimodos.com site:

http://www.q= uasimodos.com/marketrider/technical.php

The=20 articles are interesting, and to get the reports and COTs page,=20 click
here:

http://www.quas= imodos.com/marketrider/charts.php

You=20 can't paste the sites, but the first 3 on the right, for the Dow,=20 the
Naz and the SPX have a very interesting graphic display of = the=20 traders'
positions. I don't know exactly what the timing = is on=20 these but the smart
money seems to be betting against this = market=20 continuing, while the small
speculators keep piling on the=20 positions. Good bull markets (like the one
we had from = March to=20 June) often begin with very small=20 = bars.

DMC

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