From: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com (canslim-digest) To: canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Subject: canslim-digest V2 #357 Reply-To: canslim Sender: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Errors-To: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Precedence: bulk X-No-Archive: yes canslim-digest Friday, August 14 1998 Volume 02 : Number 357 In this issue: Re: [CANSLIM] Time to start counting? [CANSLIM] canslim-digest V2 #356 - I'm out of the office Re: [CANSLIM] Time to start counting? Re: [CANSLIM] NonCanslim - Mindspring Info Re: [CANSLIM] Time to start counting? [CANSLIM] Constructive Charts in Group Niches Re: [CANSLIM] Time to start counting? Re: [CANSLIM] Constructive Charts in Group Niches [CANSLIM] Sentiment Re: [CANSLIM] Time to start counting? Re: [CANSLIM] Time to start counting? Re: [CANSLIM] Time to start counting? Re: [CANSLIM] Time to start counting? Re: [CANSLIM] Time to start counting? Re: [CANSLIM] Time to start counting? RE: [CANSLIM] Time to start counting? RE: [CANSLIM] Time to start counting? [CANSLIM] Tough Groups [CANSLIM] stuff to read Re: [CANSLIM] Tough Groups Re: [CANSLIM] Tough Groups Re: [CANSLIM] stuff to read Re: [CANSLIM] DJIA and DJIA Actual [CANSLIM] QP (attn: Mike Lucero) Re: [CANSLIM] Constructive Charts in Group Niches Re: [CANSLIM] Constructive Charts in Group Niches Re: [CANSLIM] Constructive Charts in Group Niches Re: [CANSLIM] Constructive Charts in Group Niches [CANSLIM] compression bottoms and follow through-Jeffry Re: [CANSLIM] compression bottoms and follow through-Jeffry [CANSLIM] "M" Re: [CANSLIM] "M" Re: [CANSLIM] Constructive Charts in Group Niches Re: [CANSLIM] stuff to read [CANSLIM] Dow Transports - 50 Crossed the 200 today [CANSLIM] VIX (CBOE's Volatility Index) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Date: Thu, 13 Aug 1998 12:34:06 +0200 From: Johan Van Houtven Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Time to start counting? >Interesting enough, todays IBD on page A5 shows a chart and depicts the >past few days as a failed rally attempt. The chart they show clearly shows >the Dow at a lower low for Tuesday than the day labeled a rally attempt >which was 8/5/98, the actual low day. The IBD also happens to be wrong. In >the same issue on pg A27, the Dow is also charted and the low is higher >than the low on 8/5/98. The author is apparently using the close as the >basis for all conclusions she is making. That is fine, but the charts >should be correct. I'm confused. For the Dow I only use the 'Dow Jones Industrial' chart from DGO. Should I be using the 'Dow Jones Industrial Actual' chart? What is the difference? The 'Dow Jones Industrial' chart @ DGO shows both a lower intraday low and a lower close for the index on Tuesday 08/11/98. Same observation for the !DJ30 (Dow Jones 30 Industrials) chart from QPv2. (Side note for those considering QPv2: A big negative re: QPv2 is that the volume on the indexes often is completely wrong. I use DGO to do the 'counting the days' thing and use free websites to get the volume. Example www.decision-point.com) BTW, the !DJ30 closed (8552.97) on the 200EMA (8551.56) and just above the 200SMA (8490.58). First resistance @ 9 SMA then 8800 area. The Nyse also closed on the 200EMA and just above the 200SMA. With down TL resistance at the 9EMA. Here's a SMA/EMA overview of where we are for the !DJ30: !DJ30 , Close(0): 8552.97, Low(0): 8461.56, High(0): 8563.44 !DJ30 , High(52W): 9412.64, Low(52W): 7544.24 !DJ30 , SMA9: 8607.83, SMA20: 8876.34, SMA50: 8922.32, !DJ30 , SMA150: 8729.92, SMA200: 8490.58 !DJ30 , EMA9: 8628.87, EMA17: 8746.21, EMA50: 8887.78, !DJ30 , EMA150: 8700.45, EMA200: 8551.56 (Before anyone asks: Why do you use a SMA20, but an EMA17, while all the others correspond? I do this because I'm a member of the "mysterious 17EMA" society. ;^) - -- Johan Van Houtven - - ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 13 Aug 1998 07:51:15 -0600 From: "William Couch" Subject: [CANSLIM] canslim-digest V2 #356 - I'm out of the office I am out of the office until August 24. If you need immediate assistance, = please contact Dan Herrmann or Kevin Dick. Bill - - ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 13 Aug 1998 13:59:24 GMT From: musicant@autobahn.org (Dan Musicant) Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Time to start counting? On Wed, 12 Aug 1998 15:05:49 -0700, you wrote: :Anybody have the volume figures from today within easy reach? The last :chance I had to look at noon, they were nothing special. Time to start :counting yet? : Vol. on the Nas was "unimpressively" down. Dan musicant@autobahn.org - - ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 13 Aug 1998 14:11:42 GMT From: musicant@autobahn.org (Dan Musicant) Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] NonCanslim - Mindspring Info On Wed, 12 Aug 1998 20:10:52 -0400, you wrote: :Regards, :Frank Wolynski :( No I am not affiliated with Mindspring, I just think they are an :exceptional company.)=20 Apparently a lot of people agree with you, and I keep wondering if the investor base and the customer base do not overlap a great deal. This theory accounts for the inflated stock price more than any other I can think of, aside from the general overvaluations of the Net stocks at this point. The PE is around 350. When the market topped MSPG fell sharply, but has stabilized in the low forties. Where's it going to go? If the markets get into deeper trouble...especially if it's scary trouble, I have to think DOWN. Comments? Dan musicant@autobahn.org - - ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 13 Aug 1998 11:22:25 -0400 From: Peter Newell Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Time to start counting? As WON says keep your eyes open, but IMHO it's at least 4 wks out, best case probably much longer. This last rally had all the earmarkings of a top rally, ie bad breadth, spec nature. All the other rallies were on good breadth and less speculative. Peter Newell - ---------- > From: Brian Nash > To: 'canslim@lists.xmission.com' > Subject: [CANSLIM] Time to start counting? > Date: Wednesday, August 12, 1998 6:05 PM > > Anybody have the volume figures from today within easy reach? The last > chance I had to look at noon, they were nothing special. Time to start > counting yet? > > > - - - ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 13 Aug 1998 12:13:26 -0400 From: Craig Griffin Subject: [CANSLIM] Constructive Charts in Group Niches Thought I would share a few hours of work with you folks. These are Non-Internet Stocks with constructive charts (as of last night) - sort of a bottom up approach to finding strong sub-groups or niches. I found them by reviewing a "master list" of hundreds of symbols that I have built over time and selecting those charts that looked constructive (to me). Almost any symbol I run across ends up on the master list, so it has lots of totally non-Canslim stocks. At a guess, over half the list below lacks Canslim type numbers and should be eliminated as real candidates. I have grouped the symbols listed into "business niches" which indicate some pockets of strength in the market. Some of the stocks on the list that I plan to do some more research on are wmt, bby, anf, aeos, gps, geoc, prgn, pms, lgto, scai, rhi, emc, and qlgc. Best regards, Craig RETAIL RELATED - -------------- wmt retail discount bby retail electronics tan retail electronics anf retail apparel gps retail apparel bcf retail apparel aeos retail apparel cbuk designs apparel tags designs apparel orly automotive parts retailer sbl barcode scanning prods for retail HOME CONSTRUCTION RELATED - ------------------------- ctx home construction phm home construction stly residential furniture lzb residential furniture mhk carpet mfg INFRASTRUCTURE RELATED - ---------------------- aste road bldg components vmc crushed stone gva blds dams highways bridges pdm engineering and construction COMMUTER AIRLINES - ----------------- skyw commuter air comr commuter air luv commuter air TELEPHONY MGMT and TELEMARKETING - -------------------------------- plt telephone headsets geoc telephony integration software intv call automation systems BUSINESS SUPPORT SOFTWARE - ------------------------- cpwr info sys productivity sofware prgn computer servicecenter support software symx manufacturing resource planning software tsfw application integration software neon application integration software lgto client/server software drte sales force co-ordination software jdec enterprise resource planning software mapx enterprise resource planning software pms insurance and financial software nspr property claims administration software cbiz specialty insurance services outsourcing scai banking software lson record management outsourcing COMPUTER CONSULTING and CONTRACT EMPLOYEES - ------------------------------------------ rhi contract employees spri computer consulting qtec computer and engineering consultin COMPUTER STORAGE RELATED - ------------------------ emc storage related computer hardware qlgc semiconductors for storage hardware vrts storage management software DRUGSTORES - ---------- rad retail drugstores wag retail drugstores FINANCIAL SERVICES - ------------------ seic financial svcs mtrs consumer credit products SPECIALTY MEDICAL - ----------------- medi biotech mnmd microinfusion drug delivery systems resm sleep disorder breathing products - - ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 13 Aug 1998 12:16:44 -0400 From: Craig Griffin Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Time to start counting? One approach is to look for a 1% up day on higher volume. Then look back and say "is this the follow through?" (look backwards and then count forward). To take it a step further, if you got a 1% up day on higher volume today, would it look like a follow through day to you? Try that logic each night (ie. what if a 1% up day happens tomorrow?). This is probably a bit backwards, best to just count from the low. Peter Newell wrote: >This last rally had all the earmarkings of a >top rally, ie bad breadth, spec nature. I agree with Peter's comments above. And I was worried about getting a 1% up day on higher volume today, because it seems too early. But if it had the earmarks of a follow through day, I would treat it seriously and try to determine if it really was the signal by reviewing the charts and doing some counting. Fortunately (from my perspective), it looks like we will be down or flat today. Johan Van Houtven wrote: >I'm confused. For the Dow I only use the 'Dow Jones Industrial' chart from >DGO. Should I be using the 'Dow Jones Industrial Actual' chart? What is the >difference? No such thing as an "Actual" chart. The author was just pointing out that IBD was using a DOW chart containing bad data in a side article (as opposed to the DOW chart on the indexes page). You are using the correct chart. The use of the word "actual" was accidentally misleading you in the original post. Johan also wrote: >(Side note for those >considering QPv2: A big negative re: QPv2 is that the volume on the indexes >often is completely wrong. I use DGO to do the 'counting the days' thing >and use free websites to get the volume. I do the same thing. What a pain. Then I update the volume (and sometimes the high or low for the day) manually using the "Maintenance" menu. I have tried calling and emailing QP tech support about this and other issues, but never seem to get a follow up. The software is still a great value (the stock data is pretty darned good, and the other functions like scanning and charting are nice), but they need to do something about customer service. >I do this because I'm a member of the "mysterious 17EMA" >society. Shhhhhhh. ;-) - - ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 13 Aug 1998 12:30:46 -0400 From: Craig Griffin Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Constructive Charts in Group Niches As a follow on to my original post, here are some stocks in the news from Yahoo today, also - retail discount or apparel type companies: >>>>>>>>>> Begin Yahoo Quote >>>>>>>>>>>> NORDSTROM INC (NOBE - news) UP 3-9/16 AT 35-3/4 The fashion retailer's shares rose nearly 11 percent after it said fiscal second quarter earnings rose 18 percent to $69.2 million or $0.47 per diluted share. Total sales rose only seven percent. PaineWebber analyst Jeff Edelman reiterated his buy rating and rose profit estimates. He sees 1998 eps of $1.45, up from $1.40, and $1.67 in 1999, up from $1.62. He cited another quarter of improving management execution, specifically better control of inventory. - -------------------------------- KOHLS CORP (KSS - news) UP 3-3/8 AT 55-7/8 MERCANTILE STORES (MST - news) NOT YET OPEN FOR TRADING Shares rose 6.5 percent after news the company will be added to the S&P 500 after the close of trading today. It will replace Mercantile Stores Co Inc. (MST - news). Mercantile stocks closed at 80 on Wednesday but had not yet opened for trading. <<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<< End Yahoo Quote <<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<< The quote above is taken from the following URL: http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980813/hot_stocks_1.html - - ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 13 Aug 1998 09:35:40 -0700 (PDT) From: dbphoenix Subject: [CANSLIM] Sentiment From Briefing.com: Latest sentiment readings improving as the number of investment advisers bullish slipped to 43.4% from last week's reading of 50.0%... Meanwhile, bearish sentiment rose to 31.9% from 27.6%. - --Db _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - - ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 13 Aug 1998 19:21:18 +0200 From: Johan Van Houtven Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Time to start counting? I wrote: >>I'm confused. For the Dow I only use the 'Dow Jones Industrial' chart from >>DGO. Should I be using the 'Dow Jones Industrial Actual' chart? What is the >>difference? If all else fails read the DGO manual, Johan. :-) Dow Jones Industrials - A price-weighted average of 30 blue chip stocks prepared by Dow Jones & Company. The closing value for the Dow Jones Industrials is the same as for the Dow Jones Industrials Actual. However, the high and low values for the Dow Jones Industrials assume all the stocks hit their highs at the same time (high value) and all the stocks hit their lows at the same time (low value). The high and low values for the Dow Jones Industrials are considered theoretical values. Dow Jones Industrials Actual - A price-weighted average of 30 blue chip stocks prepared by Dow Jones & Company. The high/low/close is calculated each hour and takes into account each stocks different price movements, up or down. The closing value for the Dow Jones Industrials Actual is the same as for the Dow Jones Industrials. Johan Van Houtven / CLICK! N.V. - - ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 13 Aug 1998 13:29:47 -0400 From: Craig Griffin Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Time to start counting? I wrote: >No such thing as a DJIA "Actual" chart. Oops, I was wrong - see Johan's follow on post where he explains it. BTW, Johan (or anybody), did you decide whether and how the "Actual" chart is useful? Best regards, Craig - - ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 13 Aug 1998 13:33:45 -0400 From: Tom Moulton Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Time to start counting? Johan Van Houtven wrote: > Dow Jones Industrials Actual - A price-weighted average of 30 blue chip > stocks prepared by Dow Jones & Company. The high/low/close is calculated > each hour and takes into account each stocks different price movements, up > or down. The closing value for the Dow Jones Industrials Actual is the same > as for the Dow Jones Industrials. I wonder if convergence/divergence of these two numbers would show anything interesting. (actually four numbers, Hi, HiAct, Low, LowAct) and now on the lighter side... Can you imaging how many hours of junk commentary we could get out of the desk-jockies in front of the camera's if they were asked about these two dow averages! :) - - ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 13 Aug 1998 10:35:57 -0700 (PDT) From: dbphoenix Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Time to start counting? <> You should e-mail Ron or Joe and ask them. It'll give them something to talk about during their Dow 7000 special :) - --Db _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - - ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 13 Aug 1998 10:42:07 -0700 (PDT) From: dbphoenix Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Time to start counting? <> Just for the heck of it, it might be interesting to use DIA in addition to these measures since the variations in volume are so much easier to see. I have no idea what the correlation has been, is, or will be, but both DIA and SPY might be more useful tools than one might think, particularly since SPX doesn't provide volume. - --Db _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - - ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 13 Aug 1998 19:57:07 +0200 From: Johan Van Houtven Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Time to start counting? >BTW, Johan (or anybody), did you decide whether and how the "Actual" chart >is useful? I was asking myself that question as I read the definitions. Since it is such a narrow index, with only 30 co's, I can't imagine why DGO chose to supply both. I'd rather have then replace one of the two DJIA's by the Russell 2000. Johan Van Houtven / CLICK! N.V. - - ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 13 Aug 1998 11:20:17 -0700 From: "Mike Lucero" Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Time to start counting? May I ask what's really wrong with their volume for !dj30? I think they are showing the true volume for the 30 stocks, while DGO is using NYSE volume. Perhaps the standard way, we are actually looking for a divergence between the DJ30 and NYSE volume? Anyway, during the beta, I bugged QP to give us volume for the indexes. At least they did something reasonable. Mike > -----Original Message----- > From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com > [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Johan Van Houtven > Sent: Thursday, August 13, 1998 3:34 AM > To: canslim@lists.xmission.com > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Time to start counting? > > > > (Side note for those > considering QPv2: A big negative re: QPv2 is that the volume on > the indexes > often is completely wrong. I use DGO to do the 'counting the days' thing > and use free websites to get the volume. Example www.decision-point.com) > - - ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 13 Aug 1998 11:21:35 -0700 From: "Mike Lucero" Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Time to start counting? Isn't the non-actual the one more often used in newspapers? Mike > -----Original Message----- > From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com > [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Johan Van Houtven > Sent: Thursday, August 13, 1998 10:57 AM > To: canslim@lists.xmission.com > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Time to start counting? > > > >BTW, Johan (or anybody), did you decide whether and how the > "Actual" chart > >is useful? > > I was asking myself that question as I read the definitions. Since it is > such a narrow index, with only 30 co's, I can't imagine why DGO chose to > supply both. I'd rather have then replace one of the two DJIA's by the > Russell 2000. > > > > Johan Van Houtven / CLICK! N.V. > > > > > - > > - - ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 13 Aug 1998 11:19:48 -0700 (PDT) From: dbphoenix Subject: [CANSLIM] Tough Groups Like Craig, I've been fooling around with my database. From a group standpoint, the following groups are the only ones of the 108 I track which are above both their 50 and 200d MAs. Local Networks Mainframes (tiny group) Mini-Micro Sftwre-Internet Sftwre-Medl Cable TV Drug Stores Mail Order/Direct Whlsle-Comp/Cellular The following are below their 50d, but still above their 200d (the 50d is above the 200d). Some continue to decline, some are basing, some have just dipped below their 50d and look to come back through. Stay tuned. Bldg:Resdntl/Comml Optical Recognition Cmp Services Sftwre-Desktop Sftwre-Finl Investment Bkrs Finl:Misc Services Drugs-Divers Whlsle Drgs/Sundries Audio/Video Comml Furniture Office Equip Apparel/Shoe Cons Electronics Dept Stores Disc&Variety Home Furnishings Major Disc Chains Whlsle-Off Supp Cellular The purpose of this is to try to determine which groups are being the most resilient. If anyone else is doing work on this stuff, I'd like to know what results you're getting. For bottom-fishers, the 50d of the following are below their 200d, but prices have risen above the 50d. In other words, they've been knocked down, but are getting up again :) Integrated Systems Semi Equip Semi Manuf All others are below both their 50 and 200d MAs. If all of this is combined with Craig's work, there may be something of value here. - --Db _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - - ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 13 Aug 1998 12:21:50 -0800 From: "Patrick Wahl" Subject: [CANSLIM] stuff to read Here are a couple of online things that might be interesting - An article on shorting stocks at http://investor.msn.com Has an interesting idea for using RS for locating stocks. Also, an article on Broadcom at http://www.redherring.com/insider/1998/0812/brcm.html And finally, if anyone else is using Pegasus, I don't recommend upgrading to version 3. Seems much worse than 2.5. - - ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 13 Aug 1998 14:26:14 -0400 (EDT) From: Deepak Kapur Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Tough Groups Db, How do you find out whether a particular group is trading below/above 50 or 200d MAs? Do you use ghost/shadow stocks, or some index corresponding to the group? Thanks, Deepak - - ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 13 Aug 1998 11:38:59 -0700 (PDT) From: dbphoenix Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Tough Groups <> I create composites for the groups I follow. I began by entering the IBD groups, then eliminated all stocks trading under $5 (though I'm thinking of raising that to $10 since O'N has raised his minimum to $15), all stocks with ADV less than 40K, all foreign stocks, and all IPOs. Once the composite is created, it can be charted like any stock. The purpose of all this is--theoretically--to enable me to detect the movements of leading stocks before they're overextended, which is why I'm interested in the results that other people are getting. - --Db _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - - ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 13 Aug 1998 11:59:02 -0700 (PDT) From: rolatzi Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] stuff to read - ---Patrick Wahl wrote: > > Here are a couple of online things that might be interesting - > > An article on shorting stocks at http://investor.msn.com My own strategy is to look for stocks with RS in the 90's but which are declining in RS and which show an additional Timeliness change from A to B. Combine that with decreases in the rate of earnings increase and sales increase and declining prices is the start for technical analysis. ciao, rolatzi > > Has an interesting idea for using RS for locating stocks. > > Also, an article on Broadcom at > http://www.redherring.com/insider/1998/0812/brcm.html > > And finally, if anyone else is using Pegasus, I don't recommend > upgrading to version 3. Seems much worse than 2.5. > > > > > > - > > _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - - ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 13 Aug 1998 21:06:22 +0200 From: Johan Van Houtven Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] DJIA and DJIA Actual I wrote: >I was asking myself that question as I read the definitions. Since it is >such a narrow index, with only 30 co's, I can't imagine why DGO chose to >supply both. I'd rather have then replace one of the two DJIA's by the >Russell 2000. So I asked the nice people at Daily Graphs Online (DGO) and they replied: < The reason that we provide you with both, is so we can provide you with Intra-Day pricing on the Dow index. The Dow Jones Industrial Index is the one that is quoted in all publications, but the High and Low value's can not be calculated until after the market closes. What you view on this Graph, is yesterday's close, and the high and low range that you view on the graph, are theoretical values. The value for the Dow Jones Industrial Actual is updated every 15 minutes on Daily Graphs Online for the current day, but the High and Low range that you view on the graph is updated every hour, and is an average of the highs and lows for all components in the index at that time that you view it. As for your other request, we are currently negotiating with the head people at Frank Russell & Co. Some issues need to be worked out regarding what Russell information we can provide to our clients through our products. Once we are done working out details, we will look into the possibility of displaying the Russell 2000 index for our Daily Graphs Online subscribers as this is a common request. > Johan Van Houtven / CLICK! N.V. - - ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 13 Aug 1998 21:20:23 +0200 From: Johan Van Houtven Subject: [CANSLIM] QP (attn: Mike Lucero) >May I ask what's really wrong with their volume for !dj30? Mike, I wrote: A big negative re: QPv2 is that the volume on the indexes often is completely wrong. So I didn't specifically say the !DJ30's vol was wrong. I regularily notice that the volume for the NASDAQ !COMP is so wrong it is silly. As Craig said: It's a pain. Example: !COMP vol on 07/31 is 90,791,000 per QPv2. Supplying data like that is not silly, it is not a pain, it is downright insulting. Just my opinion ofcourse. Why they can't check important data like the volume of the the major indexes is beyond me. I've told them I would GLADLY pay 2 to 5x times the current montly rate for DGO-quality data. However, for the price that the program and the data cost, QPv2 is still good value to me. Johan Van Houtven / CLICK! N.V. - - ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 13 Aug 1998 21:33:32 +0200 From: Johan Van Houtven Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Constructive Charts in Group Niches >Thought I would share a few hours of work with you folks. Thank you. Nice list, Craig. Did you leave out a stock like VTSS because of the weak group? Johan Van Houtven / CLICK! N.V. - - ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 13 Aug 1998 15:53:51 -0400 From: Craig Griffin Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Constructive Charts in Group Niches At 09:33 PM 8/13/98 +0200, you wrote: >>Thought I would share a few hours of work with you folks. > >Thank you. Nice list, Craig. > >Did you leave out a stock like VTSS because of the weak group? No, just because it was in the "Internet Related" list I posted the other day. There are probably a lot I left out that are good ones, these are just the results of a few hours of scanning charts. - - ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 13 Aug 1998 16:23:39 -0400 From: Craig Griffin Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Constructive Charts in Group Niches Johan, After dashing off my quick first reply, I did a review of that internet list. In addition to VTSS, which definitely would belong on the constructive charts list, the following "Internet Related" stocks would go on that list. AMZN Internet Retailer CSCO Network Hardware DELL Microcomputers and Servers ELNK ISP PSIX ISP TKLC Network Hardware TXCC Network Semiconductors (Chart Extended) VTSS Network Semiconductors YHOO Portal & ISP Thanks for asking! Best regards, Craig - - ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 13 Aug 1998 22:51:32 +0200 From: Johan Van Houtven Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Constructive Charts in Group Niches Craig, I should apologize for my quick reply on the CS list. It looked as if I had nothing better to do that ask why you left of that stock instead of concentrating on the multitude of winners on your list. It was because I have the semi's right in front of my on my RT quote screen. I'm following VTSS, TXCC and several other closely. (Didn't mention TXCC as the volume is rather low now, and is is a relatively cheap stock.) The stocks you mention beneath are also definately on the winners list. Thanks! At 04:23 PM 13-08-98 -0400, you wrote: >Johan, > >After dashing off my quick first reply, I did a review of that internet list. > >In addition to VTSS, which definitely would belong on the constructive >charts list, the following "Internet Related" stocks would go on that list. > >AMZN Internet Retailer >CSCO Network Hardware >DELL Microcomputers and Servers >ELNK ISP >PSIX ISP >TKLC Network Hardware >TXCC Network Semiconductors (Chart Extended) >VTSS Network Semiconductors >YHOO Portal & ISP > >Thanks for asking! > >Best regards, >Craig > > >- > > Johan Van Houtven / CLICK! N.V. - - ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 13 Aug 1998 14:09:38 -0700 (PDT) From: TM Subject: [CANSLIM] compression bottoms and follow through-Jeffry Jeffry, Is it time for more of your comments on the state of the market? It was very helpful last time. TM _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - - ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 13 Aug 1998 18:08:07 -0400 From: Jeffry White <"postwhit@sover.net"@sover.net> Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] compression bottoms and follow through-Jeffry Connie Mack Rea wrote: > > Ah, now you've done it. Maybe it is not an addiction, but at least > there is a dependency on your market savvy. > > I'm listening, too. > > You had better give me some winning advice. > > Connie > > Jeffry, > > Is it time for more of your comments on the state of the market? It > was very helpful last time. > > TM > > _________________________________________________________ > DO YOU YAHOO!? > Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com > > - What market? ;) Not really time for any comments I don't think, but I'll update what I see this evening. Jeff BTW, just when you folks start paying attention, you know what's likely to happen, right? - - ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 13 Aug 1998 19:09:55 -0400 From: Jeffry White <"postwhit@sover.net"@sover.net> Subject: [CANSLIM] "M" Frank's recent post, which I saw in a digest this morning (but have misplaced), correctly designates the lows in the respective indices from which to count for 1% on volume confirmation signals. As of today's close, NYSE, SP and DOW have completed day two of the count, the Nasdaq Composite day seven (August 5 low still active for the count). Note the downtick in sentiment in IBD today (along with the Investor's Corner article). Bulls now at 43.4%, Bears at 31.9%. Not conducive to a sustained upward move, in my experience. But moving with lightening speed away from the extremes we saw in mid-July, and a dramatic move from the numbers we saw just last Thursday. I'd imagine we'll need to see Bulls at or below 40, and Bears closing in on 40 before a move like we saw in January can be sustained. A look back at the October 1997 chart might be helpful to foster some patience in those itching with cash. The August 4 mini-crash will take some time to digest, I should think, much like we saw in November, December and January. Couple of false starts in that three month period (only one really, unless you accepted IBD's mis-fire of a 12th day 1% on volume day). I've been watching/hoping for a "climax sell off", which I thought we might have on Tuesday. According to my friends at the Stock Farmer, a gap down open with an intraday new low in the downturn, followed by a close unchanged to higher on the day on an increase in daily volume provides the better signal for a potential market turn confirmed by the 1% on volume count. Kind of a collosal "Oh F*ck" panic sell-off where the last of the weaklings attempt to put themselves out of their misery. I hope that is helpful. Not really much to say without some classic signs of a bottom. It seems I write about the mechanics of this phenomenon so often, that my descriptions may not be all that helpful. Please hit me with questions if these comments are not clear. Jeff BTW, Tannis, inspired by your direct market approach, I've just reopened a futures trading account that lay dormant since my last trade of a contract on some grade of bovine or swine several years ago. I'm thinking seriously of trading WON's price and volume signals with options on the mini-value line, much like you've been doing with SPY (but without the leverage). No more stock picking, perhaps. Wouldn't that be a relief? - - ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 13 Aug 1998 20:27:21 -0400 From: Craig Griffin Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] "M" Jeffry, You wrote: >I've been watching/hoping for a "climax sell off", which I thought we >might have on Tuesday. According to my friends at the Stock Farmer, a >gap down open with an intraday new low in the downturn, followed by a >close unchanged to higher on the day on an increase in daily volume >provides the better signal for a potential market turn confirmed by the >1% on volume count. I agree. I call those "volume reversals" - although they don't always have a gap down open, it certainly helps. Sometimes these are referred to as climax gaps (when they come at the end of a trend and signal it's reversal as the last of the holdouts throw in the towel and join the trend). Enjoyed your post. Best regards, Craig - - ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 13 Aug 1998 20:27:01 -0400 From: Craig Griffin Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Constructive Charts in Group Niches Johan, Re: VTSS (Canslim) Not at all - no apology necessary - your question was fine in all ways. I was glad to answer. Re: CBIZ (Canslim) I watched CBIZ half the day, finally decided not to enter a position, just because I was leary of entering any new ones in a market like this. Guess I should have anyway :-0 (of course I would be singing another tune if it turned down). Beautiful volume tracks on the chart (up vs. down days) and a nice breakout yesterday are what tempted me. And it just sat at $22 with strong volume like a rock for hours this morning while the market sold off, I would have jumped in had M been in an uptrend. Then later in the day it took off (after all of the sellers dried up I guess). Looks like a good one - extended now of course. (Newbies - Take a look at a chart with the volume each day colored green/red for up/down to see what I mean by "volume tracks" above. This action also seems to show up in the OBV -On Balance Volume- in this case.). Best regards, Craig - - ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 14 Aug 1998 02:55:36 GMT From: musicant@autobahn.org (Dan Musicant) Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] stuff to read :> Here are a couple of online things that might be interesting - :>=20 :> An article on shorting stocks at http://investor.msn.com : Very interesting article -- I just read the whole thing. Here's the 7 shorts they suggest considering (carefully, of course, as always): DSTM =46FTI ONSL PCTY PFT STRX TGX Note that Theragenics is now TGX, not THRX.=20 Dan musicant@autobahn.org - - ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 13 Aug 1998 22:52:37 -0400 From: "Frank V. Wolynski" Subject: [CANSLIM] Dow Transports - 50 Crossed the 200 today Dow Jones Transports Observations/Thoughts/Ramblings: Price Indicator: 3004.71 50day MOV: 3365.65 200day MOV: 3368.39 The 50day MOV moved beneath the 200day MOV today for the first time in years. Since 1994 in fact if I am reading Big Charts correctly. The good news is that it is extended beneath the 200day MOV almost as much as it was above. Probably within a few percent anyway. BC shows the index back to 1985 and that is as far I as could look, but the Index appears to do this every few years or so. Related to the price of Oil? Maybe. Probably. Are we at the bottom. I think not, but it is interesting how it has built bottoms during the past 13 years. Not that this one will be the same, but the period does embrace two full fledge Bear markets, 1987 and 1994. I believe in balance in the scales and equal swings in the pendulum. More or less. The transport high was put in at 3686.02 on 4/16/98. The 200day MOV was 3214.57 A difference of roughly 472 points. Today the index stands at 3004.71 The 200day MOV is 3368.39 A difference of roughly 364 points. Does this infer an additional 108 point downside potential then a bottom building? Maybe. It is interesting that the low reached on 10/28/97 of 2916.43 is approx 88 points away from todays close. I also find it interesting that the close on 10/27/98 was 3004.58! Within .13 of todays close! Wowzer..... If I do all this mumbo jumbo with the high of 4/16/98 instead of the close, then the separation becomes, 3735.37 - 3214.57, or 520.80. Then the low figure beneath the 200day MOV becomes 3368.39 - 520.80 or 2847.59. Another interesting number! On 8/29/98 the low was 2844.30, pretty close. There is also a long term trendline that has a first point in late 1994, then some touching in fall of 1996. This trendline, as best as I can draw it extends currently to slightly over 2700. Of course time will cause the trendline value to increase over the coming days and it would not surprise me to see the value up nearer to 2800 by the time an intersection is approaching. I wish I knew the Fibonacci numbers for the last transport advance, the fall of 96 to the top in early 98. It could be interesting. I don't have much trouble picturing the transports getting to the levels indicated above, that implies at least another 150 to 300 points to the downside. And it appears that would be approximately a 50% retrace of the advance referenced above. The transports are certainly starting to take on a hopeless graph shape! And we all know what that means! Frank Wolynski - - ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 14 Aug 1998 06:43:04 -0400 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] VIX (CBOE's Volatility Index) I thought of a new wrinkle on my system this morning. I have found that VIX (the CBOE Volatility Index) has been historically a good indicator of a favorable/unfavorable climate for CANSLIM type stocks. Generally, if VIX is under 20 (low volatility), it's a favorable climate. Unfortunately, I haven't been paying as much attention as I used to, or should have been. This morning, I took a look at the 1 year, 6, 3 and 1 month charts of VIX using MACD on the bottom at BigCharts with my usual settings. I noted two important (to me) details. First, had I thought of using this back then, I would have noted that VIX earlier this year when I was making some nice money was still tracking around 21-23. A cautionary sign (since it was over 20), had I been looking. MACD at the time was negative (a positive in this context) so wouldn't have been chased out, but would/should have tightened my tolerance. Second, MACD quite clearly shows that I should have exited CANSLIM type stocks on July 21 or 22, when MACD went positive (bad thing in this context). As I recall, that wouldn't have been a bad exit point. It looks like MACD is about to go negative again, however VIX is still at 30, well over 20, thus the mkts would appear to need to do a lot of calming before the environment will again become favorable to CANSLIMers. Tom W - - ------------------------------ End of canslim-digest V2 #357 ***************************** To unsubscribe to canslim-digest, send an email to "majordomo@xmission.com" with "unsubscribe canslim-digest" in the body of the message. For information on digests or retrieving files and old messages send "help" to the same address. Do not use quotes in your message.