Peak oil, or Hubbert's
peak, is the point in time where the year to year production rate of
oil stops increasing and starts to decline. Oil prices will
move
from being demand limited (controlled by the cost of producing a barrel
of oil) to being supply limited (controlled by what people are willing
to pay when competing against one's neighbor). In other
words,
oil demand will be limited using price and economic recessions to limit
demand to a geologically controlled supply. It probably won't
be
pretty.
Current world spare capacity is about 1 percent, or around 1 million
barrels of production per day. This spare capacity is almost
exclusively held in Saudi Arabia.
Many folks figure that having only about 1 percent spare oil production
capacity in the world, compounded with the threat of hurricanes in the
gulf of Mexico, strikes in Venezuela, mayhem in Iraq, nukes in Iran, a
surging economy in the USA and China, and having the USA, North Sea,
and Indonesia already peaked, along with shortages of tankers and
refineries everywhere is no excuse for current oil prices. I
am
not one of them.
By the way, the world is growing demand by about 1 percent every 4 to 6
months.
Since there are so many other great web sites on Peak Oil, I decided to
just supply links or names of some of the better ones.
Gas
and Oil
Depletion - Scotland Probably the best place on the web to
start. Has a
Q/A, and links to the 5 best articles, 5 best web sites, etc.
Wikipedia,
Peak
Oil A good source of current Peak Oil information. Presents
both
sides of the argument, along with a great list of links.
The
End Of Cheap Oil Scientific American article from March 1998
that
presented peak oil to the scientific community.
Andrew
McNamara
interview Andrew is the Chair of the Queensland Energy
Minister's
benchmark committee. Excellent perspective on the impacts of
Peak
Oil to a community.
Hubbert's
Peak One of
the best original peak oil web sites. A bit inconsistent.
Forecasts
of
Future Oil Output is a great page of peak oil prediction
graphs. As you look at these graphs, think about what life
for
our children will be like in 30 to 50 years - under anyone's oil
production scenario.
Energy
Trends and Their Implications for U.S. Army Instillations
A good report done for the U.S. Army on energy surety. Be sure to
read the "Conclusions about Petroleum", pages 11 and 12. The U.S. Army,
or at least these authors, believe that peak oil is at hand, and that
the optimists conclusions are "extremely implausible". Taken out of
context.
Read the article!
Peaking of
World Oil
Production: Impacts, Mitigation & Risk Management by
Robert L.
Hirsch et al. Great report created for the U.S. Department of
Energy by Science Applications International Corporation.
Includes the problems, possible solutions, and impacts due to delays
dealing with Peak Oil. Abstract is that we want to start
working
on the problem 20 years before the peak. Long, but a must read.
Other views
Energy
Information
Administration Click on forecasts, then Short-Term.
These
have been low or very low the vast majority of the time for this
decade.
Also checkout forecasts, and Annual. The annual estimate for
2005
said that prices for a barrel of oil were expected to decline to the
mid 20's from the then mid 30's. As of August 2005, prices
had
gone over $60 per barrel. I believe that their models are
seriously broken.
Energy
Information Administration Long-Term World Oil Supply Scenarios
This is the EIA's reply to Peak Oil. Their conclusion is that
the peak should be near the middle of the this century. If
you assume more aggressive numbers, such as oil demand continuing to
grow at 3% per year and a world supply of about 2 trillion barrels, we
peak in 2021. Way too soon for me.
U.S.
GEOLOGICAL SURVEY WORLD PETROLEUM ASSESSMENT 2000
This is the year 2000 report from the USGS that is the foundation of
many anti-peak oil people.
I believe that this is a good example of the old engineering
saying "If you write an answer
with enough
digits of precision, people think that you know what you are talking
about." This is very handy when you are making wild guesses.
Gas mileage is the goal here. Generally hybrid
technology, advanced diesel, lightweight, and/or small is the
answer. Just because a pickup truck getting 15 mpg has a
"Hybrid"
sticker on the back does NOT solve the Peak Oil problem. Try
for
a vehicle getting mileage in the 40's of miles/gallon. Check
out FuelEconomy.Gov
Support mass transit. Ride the bus.
Move near work
or public transportation.
Make sure that your house is Energy Star
compliant.
Check out the Rocky
Mountain
Institute. Great advice on how to use less energy, less
water,
create less pollution, etc.
Financial solutions.
See "The Oil Factor" below.
Don't invest in airlines or auto companies.
Get a good
education. Learn to be flexible. In a world of
competition
for scarce resources, the slow will not survive.
Get your finances in order. Read "The Automatic
Millionaire".
Long range solutions
Reduce the earth's population to what can be supported
using
renewable resources. That is probably a forth or less of our
current population.
Have fewer children.
Books
Hubbert's Peak by Deffeyes. ISBN
0691116253. Good
book on the science of Peak Oil from a geologist's
perspective.
This is basically an elaboration of the Scientific American article
above.
Beyond Oil by Deffeyes. ISBN
0809029561. Good book on
what energy sources can replace oil. Generally, the outlook
isn't
good.
The Oil Factor by Leeb. ISBN
0446533173. Good book on
the financial winners and losers in a Peak Oil world. He is
incorrect on his main "clue" to time getting out of the stock market -
he doesn't take into account the devaluation of the dollar against
other currencies. Timing the market never works. Go
for
fundamentals. And Peak Oil is a fundamental.
Twilight in the Desert by Simmons. ISBN
047173876X.
This book analyzes oil and gas in Saudi Arabia, and comes to very, very
depressing conclusions. Lots of good detail.
Collapse, How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed by Jared
Diamond. ISBN Sometimes technology and ideas that save
civilizations work, sometimes they don't.