Peak Oil

Home | Peak Oil Links


Peak oil, or Hubbert's peak, is the point in time where the year to year production rate of oil stops increasing and starts to decline.  Oil prices will move from being demand limited (controlled by the cost of producing a barrel of oil) to being supply limited (controlled by what people are willing to pay when competing against one's neighbor).  In other words, oil demand will be limited using price and economic recessions to limit demand to a geologically controlled supply.  It probably won't be pretty.

Current world spare capacity is about 1 percent, or around 1 million barrels of production per day.  This spare capacity is almost exclusively held in Saudi Arabia.

Many folks figure that having only about 1 percent spare oil production capacity in the world, compounded with the threat of hurricanes in the gulf of Mexico, strikes in Venezuela, mayhem in Iraq, nukes in Iran, a surging economy in the USA and China, and having the USA, North Sea, and Indonesia already peaked, along with shortages of tankers and refineries everywhere is no excuse for current oil prices.  I am not one of them.

By the way, the world is growing demand by about 1 percent every 4 to 6 months.

Since there are so many other great web sites on Peak Oil, I decided to just supply links or names of some of the better ones. 

August, 2005

Peak Oil Resources

Other views

Short range solutions

Long range solutions