The 66th Annual Academy Awards (telecast Monday, March 21) promises to be a stellar event, but one which will likely feature few surprises. Steven Spielberg, the most successful director in history, will almost certainly receive from the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences the long overdue adulation it has thus far denied him. In 1993, Mr. Spielberg not only delivered the all-time box office champ (Jurassic Park) but also a powerful and sobering look at the holocaust that was perpetrated on the Jewish people by the Nazis (Schindler's List).
This year also marks the first time that two performers have each been nominated in two acting categories; and it just so happens that they are the same categories. Emma Thompson, last year's winner for Howards End, is nominated for The Remains of the Day in the Best Actress category and for In the Name of the Father in the Supporting Actress category. Meanwhile, Holly Hunter is nominated in those categories for The Piano and The Firm respectively.
In a perfect world, the choice of who should win the statuette in any given category would be obvious and compelling and there wouldn't be a need to second guess the Academy. Fortunately, this is not the case. As is my modus operandi, I will be making two selections from each of the major categories. The first of these I term my "pick" and it represents the performer, film artist, or film that I believe has done the most to warrant an Oscar out of those nominated. The second selection I designate my "prediction" and it represents the results of my analysis of the prevailing mood in Hollywood, current trends, outside indicators as well as a healthy dash of intuition and luck. On to the nominees...
PICTURE - The Fugitive is top-notch escapist entertainment
but it is up against four well-received dramas and, therefore,
stands little to no chance of winning. The Piano met with a huge
amount of critical praise upon it's release, something that has
baffled me to this day. Many of the people who saw this quiet,
independent film were politely appreciative of it, but I suspect
that I wasn't the only one who found its love story to be
somewhat perverted. Think of it as this year's The Crying Game.
In the Name of the Father showed that the team of director Jim
Sheridan and actor Daniel Day-Lewis on My Left Foot was no one
trick pony. Nevertheless, their collaboration is not good enough
to snare the gold this year. The Remains of the Day, with its
fine, tempered performances, could have won in a lesser year.
But against the monumental achievement called Schindler's List,
it will have to settle for runner-up.
ACTRESS - Angela Bassett stands nominated for What's Love
Got To Do With It, a film which didn't find much of an audience
during its run in theatres. For this reason she in considered a
long shot. Shadowland's Debra Winger is outclassed by her
competition, but Academy members who associate her with co-star
Anthony Hopkins might be kind to her. Stockard Channing won't
win for Six Degrees of Separation largely because she gave a
stage performance for the screen. Emma Thompson definitely
deserves a repeat, but Holly Hunter (who already won the Golden
Globe in this category) is riding high on a critical rave and is
the odds-on favorite to take home the Oscar. Even though I
disliked her film, I can't place any of the blame on Ms. Hunter,
who handled a crucial role with excellence.
ACTOR - Laurence Fishburne is in the same boat as co-star
Angela Bassett when it comes to his chances of copping an Oscar
for What's Love Got To Do With It. Daniel Day-Lewis shot at
triumphing in this category for In the Name of the Father may be
hampered by his sometimes difficult to understand Irish accent.
Liam Neeson's chance at winning this award rests on the
groundswell behind Schindler's List. He'll win only if the
Academy feels the film deserves a sweep. Anthony Hopkins, in The
Remains of the Day, flat out gave the best performance of the
year, not to mention the decade. Unfortunately, Tom Hanks, who
played a man dying of AIDS in Philadelphia, will probably win for
all of the wrong reasons, such as sympathy and political
correctness.
SUPPORTING ACTRESS - Holly Hunter will be so busy picking up
the Actress award that she won't care about missing out on this
one. Her co-star in The Piano, the young Miss Anna Paquin,
stands a better chance, but not much of one. With the ever-
shrill Rosie Perez and her performance in the forgettable
Fearless shrugged off, the competition will come down to Winona
Ryder for The Age of Innocence and Emma Thompson. As
disappointingly mediocre as her film was, Ms. Ryder did a bang up
job in it while I fear that Emma's part in In the Name of the
Father was just too small for the Academy to reward.
SUPPORTING ACTOR - If there's category completely up-for-
grabs, it's this one. Leonardo DiCaprio did a good job playing a
mentally-handicapped boy in What's Eating Gilbert Grape? Ralph
Fiennes was phenomenal as a sadistic soldier in Schindler's List.
Tommy Lee Jones was a great antagonist for The Fugitive. John
Malkovich was the ultimate arch-enemy to Clint Eastwood in In The
Line of Fire. Pete Postlethwaite came out of nowhere and kept In
the Name of the Father from being a one-actor movie. I wouldn't
be disappointed by a win from any of them.
DIRECTOR - Sorry Jim Sheridan (In the Name of the Father),
Jane Campion (The Piano), James Ivory (The Remains of the Day),
and Robert Altman (Short Cuts), the Academy is going to make up
for years of bad karma by finally giving Steven Spielberg his
due. And frankly, he deserves it.
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY - Gary Ross is up at bat with the year's
only writing nomination for a comedy, Dave. Jeff Maguire is a
stand-out in the dialogue department with In The Line of Fire.
Ron Nyswaner tackled the tough subject of a deadly disease for
Philadelphia. Jane Campion is an actor's writer, giving meaty
parts to all the leads in The Piano. Nora Ephron, David S. Ward
and Jeff Arch came up with the schmaltzy but prosperous Sleepless
in Seattle.
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY - Jay Cocks and Martin Scorsese adapted
Edith Wharton's The Age of Innocence. Terry George and Jim
Sheridan adapted In the Name of the Father for the big screen.
Ruth Prawer Jhabvala, a nominee last year for Howards End, has
done even finer work with The Remains of the Day. Steven
Zaillian tackled Schindler's List and captured its mood
perfectly. William Nicholson adapted the fact-based Shadowlands.
Three of these films are true stories and the others are fine
fabrications.
ORIGINAL SCORE - Neither The Firm, with music by Dave
Grusin, nor The Fugitive, with music by James Newton Howard,
benefitted as much from their scores as did the other nominees.
The Age of Innocence, with music by Elmer Bernstein, The Remains
of the Day, with music by Richard Robbins, and Schindler's List,
with music by longtime Spielberg collaborator John Williams, all
had rich, evocative scores. This being said, there's really no
obvious standout, but Williams is the favorite.
ORIGINAL SONG - Where is Disney when you need them? This
category use to be so easy to predict. If a Disney song was
nominated, it would win. No effort exerted and no one had to
stick their neck or clairvoyant reputation on the line. This
year all I can do is weed out the forgettable songs like "Again"
from Poetic Justice by Janet Jackson, James Harris III and Terry
Lewis, and hope for the best. "The Day I Fall In Love" from
Beethoven's 2nd by Carole Bayer Sager, James Ingram and Cliff
Magness actually isn't that bad, though a bit on the syrupy side.
But I just can't see them giving any award to this shaggy dog
movie. "Philadelphia" by Neil Young and "Streets of
Philadelphia" by Bruce Springsteen, both from (you guessed it)
Philadelphia, each have a chance of winning. "A Wink and a
Smile" from Sleepless in Seattle by Marc Shaiman and Ramsey
McLean is a less obvious choice, but still in the running.
VISUAL EFFECTS - For the third straight year, the winner in
this category sticks out like a sore thumb. Neil Krepela, John
Richardson, John Bruno and Pamela Easley for Cliffhanger as well
as Pete Kozachik, Eric Leighton, Ariel Velasco Shaw and Gordon
Baker for Tim Burton's The Nightmare Before Christmas can all go
home early. Dennis Muren, Stan Winston, Phil Tippett and Michael
Lantieri will win for Jurassic Park without breaking a sweat. I
do think, though, that Burton's film should win a special award
for its beautiful stop-motion animation.
Well, that's it for my predictions. The nominees in the remaining categories are:
FOREIGN-LANGUAGE FILM - Belle Epoque (Spain), Farewell My Concubine (Hong Kong), Hedd Wyn (United Kingdom), The Scent of Green Papaya (Vietnam), The Wedding Banquet (Taiwan)
DOCUMENTARY FEATURE - The Broadcast Tapes of Dr. Peter, Children of Fate, For Better or For Worse, I Am a Promise: The Children of Stanton Elementary School, The War Room
DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT - Blood Ties: The Life and Work of Sally Mann, Chicks in White Satin, Defending Our Lives
FILM EDITING - Dennis Virkler, David Finfer, Dean Goodhill, Don Brochu, Richard Nord and Dov Hoenig for The Fugitive; Anne V. Coates for In the Line of Fire; Gerry Hambling for In the Name of the Father; Veronika Jenet for The Piano; Michael Kahn for Schindler's List
ART DIRECTION - Ken Adam and Marvin March for Addams Family Values; Dante Ferretti and Robert J. Franco for The Age of Innocence; Ben Van Os and Jan Roeles for Orlando; Luciana Arrighi and Ian Whittaker for The Remains of the Day; Allan Starski and Ewa Braun for Schindler's List
CINEMATOGRAPHY - Gu Changwei for Farewell My Concubine; Michael Chapman for The Fugitive; Stuart Dryburgh for The Piano; Janusz Kaminski for Schindler's List; Conrad L. Hall for Searching for Bobby Fischer
COSTUME DESIGN - Gabriella Pescucci for The Age of Innocence, Sandy Powell for Orlando; Janet Patterson for The Piano; Jenny Beaven and John Bright The Remains of the Day; Anna Biedrzycka-Sheppard Schindler's List
MAKEUP - Greg Cannom, Ve Neill and Yolanda Toussieng for Mrs. Doubtfire; Carl Fullerton and Alan D'Angerio for Philadelphia; Christina Smith, Matthew Mungle and Judith A. Cory for Schindler's List
ANIMATED SHORT FILM - Blindscape, The Mighty River, Small Talk, The Village, The Wrong Trousers
LIVE-ACTION SHORT FILM - Black Rider (Schwarzfahrer), Down on the Waterfront, The Dutch Master, Partners, The Screw (La Vis)
SOUND - Michael Minkler, Bob Beemer and Tim Cooney for Cliffhanger; Donald O. Mitchell, Michael Herbick, Frank A. Montano and Scott D. Smith for The Fugitive; Chris Carpenter, D.M. Hemphill, Bill W. Benton and Lee Orloff for Geronimo, An American Legend; Gary Summers, Gary Rydstrom, Shawn Murphy and Ron Judkins for Jurassic Park; Andy Nelson, Steve Pederson, Scott Millan and Ron Judkins for Schindler's List
SOUND EFFECTS EDITING - Wylie Stateman and Gregg Baxter for Cliffhanger; John Leveque and Bruce Stambler for The Fugitive; Gary Rydstrom and Richard Hymns for Jurassic Park