As in years past, I will briefly discuss the nominees in the most popular categories and then give a pick and a prediction for each. My pick is the film I feel deserves the award most out of those nominated. My prediction, on the other hand, comes strictly from an analysis of which nominee is most likely to win.
Before I start, though, there are a couple of matter to be addressed. First off is the awarding of the Question Mark Award (for the most dubious nomination) to Chris Noonan, the director of "Babe". Although this little gem came out of nowhere to grab oodles of critical acclaim and audience regard, Noonan just isn't (yet) Best Director material. The second matter of business is the usual whining for films and film artists which should have been nominated but weren't. "12 Monkeys" should have been nominated in both the picture and screenplay categories while Annette Bening was overlooked for her standout turn in "The American President". Now on with the nominees:
Picture - "Il Postino (The Postman)" has the distinction of
having the smallest audience of any of the Best Picture
nominees, in addition to being a foreign-language film. For
this reason it should be considered the longest shot in the
bunch. "Babe", which seems to be an unlikely choice, is a real
wild card now that it has earned the Golden Globe for Best
Comedy or Musical. "Braveheart" and "Apollo 13" are just the
kinds of films that the Academy loves to recognize being,
respectively, an epic period saga and a true-life account of
American bravery. Rounding out the nominees is an adaptation of
the Jane Austen novel "Sense and Sensibility". This one is a
British costume drama, the kind of film that gets nominated
nearly every year but never takes home the Oscar. It's about
time they did.
Actress - Sharon Stone is the only nominee in this category who
can be written off. Although she proved to the world with
"Casino" that she can act, her past films will weigh heavily in
the Academy's decision. Susan Sarandon, for "Dead Man Walking",
is currently 0 for 4, but is a constant favorite with critics
and audiences alike. Elisabeth Shue gave a powerful performance
as the hooker with the heart of gold in "Leaving Las Vegas", but
she has never been a critical darling before this point in her
career. Meryl Streep, for "The Bridges of Madison County", is a
solid choice and one who has been recognized by the Academy in
the past. Finally, there is Emma Thompson who, as good as she
was in "Sense and Sensibility", is more likely to garner the
screenplay award for that film.
Actor - Richard Dreyfuss, for "Mr. Holland's Opus", is nobody's
favorite in this category filled with stronger nominees.
Massimo Troisi, for "Il Postino (The Postman)", may be a
sentimental favorite because he died just hours after completing
the film. Sean Penn in "Dead Man Walking" and Anthony Hopkins
in the title role of "Nixon" both deserve to be recognize, but
Nicolas Cage is Tinsel Town's "golden boy" of the moment and
will likely take top honors.
Supporting Actress - Joan Allen and Kathleen Quinlan for,
respectively, "Nixon" and "Apollo 13", both had small, thankless
roles in their films. Mare Winningham didn't cause much of a
stir in "Georgia". This narrows down the category to Mira
Sorvino in Woody Allen's "Mighty Aphrodite" and Kate Winslet in
"Sense and Sensibility".
Supporting Actor - Tim Roth was sublime as a sadistic nobleman
in "Rob Roy". Kevin Spacey hit just the right note as a timid
thug in "The Usual Suspects". James Cromwell, for "Babe", and
Ed Harris, for "Apollo 13", were good but aren't a match for
their competition. Brad Pitt, although a bit of a longshot for
"12 Monkeys" is that film's best shot at glory, and surpassed
everyone's estimation of his acting talents.
Director - Chris Noonan won't take it for "Babe" and neither
will Michael Radford for "Il Postino (The Postman)". Mike
Figgis, for the downbeat and dreary "Leaving Las Vegas", stands
a chance, as does Tim Robbins for "Dead Man Walking". But the
Academy, which is primarily composed of actors, loves to give
the directing award to a fellow actor, such Clint Eastwood for
"Unforgiven" and Kevin Costner for "Dancing With Wolves". With
the glorious "Braveheart" under his belt, this looks to be Mel
Gibson's year.
Original Screenplay - Woody Allen probably won't win for the
tolerable "Mighty Aphrodite", and "Toy Story" is an even less
likely choice to take home this award. "Nixon", although
worthy, is about an unpopular person and isn't likely to strike
gold for that reason. "Braveheart", by Randall Wallace, and
"The Usual Suspects", by Christopher McQuarrie, will likely
battle it out for the gold.
Adapted Screenplay - "Apollo 13", "Babe", "Leaving Las Vegas",
"Il Postino (The Postman)", and "Sense and Sensibility" are the
nominees in this category. "Leaving Las Vegas" is riding a
groundswell, but it's a film easier to appreciate than to like.
Emma Thompson should score big here.
Song - Nominated are "Colors of the Wind" from "Pocahontas",
"Dead Man Walking" from "Dead Man Walking", "Have You Ever
Really Loved a Woman" from "Don Juan DeMarco", "Moonlight" from
"Sabrina" and "You've Got a Friend" from "Toy Story". Bet
against Disney only if your accountant claims it can be used as
a tax write-off. And if you're thinking "Toy Story", think
again.
The nominees in the remaining categories are:
Art Direction APOLLO 13 BABE A LITTLE PRINCESS RESTORATION RICHARD III Cinematography BATMAN FOREVER BRAVEHEART A LITTLE PRINCESS SENSE AND SENSIBILITY SHANGHAI TRIAD Costume Design BRAVEHEART RESTORATION RICHARD III SENSE AND SENSIBILITY 12 MONKEYS Documentary Feature ANNE FRANK REMEMBERED THE BATTLE OVER CITIZEN KANE FIDDLEFEST HANK AARON: CHASING THE DREAM TROUBLESOME CREEK: A MIDWESTERN Documentary Short JIM DINE: A SELF-PORTRAIT ON THE WALLS THE LIVING SEA NEVER GIVE UP: THE 20TH CENTURY ODYSSEY OF HERBERT ZIPPER ONE SURVIVOR REMEMBERS THE SHADOW OF HATE Film Editing APOLLO 13 BABE BRAVEHEART CRIMSON TIDE SEVEN Foreign Language Film ALL THINGS FAIR (Sweden) ANTONIA'S LINE (The Netherlands) DUST OF LIFE (Algeria) O QUATRILHO (Brazil) THE STAR MAKER (Italy) Makeup BRAVEHEART MY FAMILY, MI FAMILIA ROOMMATES Musical or Comedy Score THE AMERICAN PRESIDENT POCAHONTAS SABRINA TOY STORY UNSTRUNG HEROES Dramatic Score APOLLO 13 BRAVEHEART NIXON IL POSTINO (THE POSTMAN) SENSE AND SENSIBILITY Short Film (Animated) THE CHICKEN FROM OUTERSPACE A CLOSE SHAVE THE END GAGARIN RUNAWAY BRAIN Short Film (Live Action) BROOMS DUKE OF GROOVE LIEBERMAN IN LOVE LITTLE SURPRISES TUESDAY MORNING RIDE Sound APOLLO 13 BATMAN FOREVER BRAVEHEART CRIMSON TIDE WATERWORLD Sound Effects Editing BATMAN FOREVER BRAVEHEART CRIMSON TIDE Visual Effects APOLLO 13 BABE