68TH ANNUAL ACADEMY AWARDS:
NOMINEES AND PREDICTIONS


We're coming up quickly on the most magical day of the year; the day that all eyes turn toward Hollywood (or at least it would like to think so). On Monday, March 25th at 7:00 p.m. local, the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences begins handing out awards for excellence for films released during 1995. Who will win, as shall be addressed shortly, is cloudy as there are fewer front-runners in any of the categories than in recent years.

As in years past, I will briefly discuss the nominees in the most popular categories and then give a pick and a prediction for each. My pick is the film I feel deserves the award most out of those nominated. My prediction, on the other hand, comes strictly from an analysis of which nominee is most likely to win.

Before I start, though, there are a couple of matter to be addressed. First off is the awarding of the Question Mark Award (for the most dubious nomination) to Chris Noonan, the director of "Babe". Although this little gem came out of nowhere to grab oodles of critical acclaim and audience regard, Noonan just isn't (yet) Best Director material. The second matter of business is the usual whining for films and film artists which should have been nominated but weren't. "12 Monkeys" should have been nominated in both the picture and screenplay categories while Annette Bening was overlooked for her standout turn in "The American President". Now on with the nominees:

Picture - "Il Postino (The Postman)" has the distinction of having the smallest audience of any of the Best Picture nominees, in addition to being a foreign-language film. For this reason it should be considered the longest shot in the bunch. "Babe", which seems to be an unlikely choice, is a real wild card now that it has earned the Golden Globe for Best Comedy or Musical. "Braveheart" and "Apollo 13" are just the kinds of films that the Academy loves to recognize being, respectively, an epic period saga and a true-life account of American bravery. Rounding out the nominees is an adaptation of the Jane Austen novel "Sense and Sensibility". This one is a British costume drama, the kind of film that gets nominated nearly every year but never takes home the Oscar. It's about time they did.

My Pick: Sense and Sensibility
My Prediction: Apollo 13

Actress - Sharon Stone is the only nominee in this category who can be written off. Although she proved to the world with "Casino" that she can act, her past films will weigh heavily in the Academy's decision. Susan Sarandon, for "Dead Man Walking", is currently 0 for 4, but is a constant favorite with critics and audiences alike. Elisabeth Shue gave a powerful performance as the hooker with the heart of gold in "Leaving Las Vegas", but she has never been a critical darling before this point in her career. Meryl Streep, for "The Bridges of Madison County", is a solid choice and one who has been recognized by the Academy in the past. Finally, there is Emma Thompson who, as good as she was in "Sense and Sensibility", is more likely to garner the screenplay award for that film.

My Pick: Emma Thompson
My Prediction: Susan Sarandon

Actor - Richard Dreyfuss, for "Mr. Holland's Opus", is nobody's favorite in this category filled with stronger nominees. Massimo Troisi, for "Il Postino (The Postman)", may be a sentimental favorite because he died just hours after completing the film. Sean Penn in "Dead Man Walking" and Anthony Hopkins in the title role of "Nixon" both deserve to be recognize, but Nicolas Cage is Tinsel Town's "golden boy" of the moment and will likely take top honors.

My Pick: Anthony Hopkins
My Prediction: Nicolas Cage

Supporting Actress - Joan Allen and Kathleen Quinlan for, respectively, "Nixon" and "Apollo 13", both had small, thankless roles in their films. Mare Winningham didn't cause much of a stir in "Georgia". This narrows down the category to Mira Sorvino in Woody Allen's "Mighty Aphrodite" and Kate Winslet in "Sense and Sensibility".

My Pick: Kate Winslet
My Prediction: Mira Sorvino

Supporting Actor - Tim Roth was sublime as a sadistic nobleman in "Rob Roy". Kevin Spacey hit just the right note as a timid thug in "The Usual Suspects". James Cromwell, for "Babe", and Ed Harris, for "Apollo 13", were good but aren't a match for their competition. Brad Pitt, although a bit of a longshot for "12 Monkeys" is that film's best shot at glory, and surpassed everyone's estimation of his acting talents.

My Pick: Brad Pitt
My Prediction: Tim Roth

Director - Chris Noonan won't take it for "Babe" and neither will Michael Radford for "Il Postino (The Postman)". Mike Figgis, for the downbeat and dreary "Leaving Las Vegas", stands a chance, as does Tim Robbins for "Dead Man Walking". But the Academy, which is primarily composed of actors, loves to give the directing award to a fellow actor, such Clint Eastwood for "Unforgiven" and Kevin Costner for "Dancing With Wolves". With the glorious "Braveheart" under his belt, this looks to be Mel Gibson's year.

My Pick: Mel Gibson
My Prediction: Mel Gibson

Original Screenplay - Woody Allen probably won't win for the tolerable "Mighty Aphrodite", and "Toy Story" is an even less likely choice to take home this award. "Nixon", although worthy, is about an unpopular person and isn't likely to strike gold for that reason. "Braveheart", by Randall Wallace, and "The Usual Suspects", by Christopher McQuarrie, will likely battle it out for the gold.

My Pick: Braveheart
My Prediction: Braveheart

Adapted Screenplay - "Apollo 13", "Babe", "Leaving Las Vegas", "Il Postino (The Postman)", and "Sense and Sensibility" are the nominees in this category. "Leaving Las Vegas" is riding a groundswell, but it's a film easier to appreciate than to like. Emma Thompson should score big here.

My Pick: Sense and Sensibility
My Prediction: Sense and Sensibility

Song - Nominated are "Colors of the Wind" from "Pocahontas", "Dead Man Walking" from "Dead Man Walking", "Have You Ever Really Loved a Woman" from "Don Juan DeMarco", "Moonlight" from "Sabrina" and "You've Got a Friend" from "Toy Story". Bet against Disney only if your accountant claims it can be used as a tax write-off. And if you're thinking "Toy Story", think again.

My Pick: Colors of the Wind
My Prediction: Colors of the Wind

The nominees in the remaining categories are:

Art Direction

    APOLLO 13
    BABE
    A LITTLE PRINCESS
    RESTORATION
    RICHARD III

Cinematography

    BATMAN FOREVER
    BRAVEHEART
    A LITTLE PRINCESS
    SENSE AND SENSIBILITY
    SHANGHAI TRIAD

Costume Design

    BRAVEHEART
    RESTORATION
    RICHARD III
    SENSE AND SENSIBILITY
    12 MONKEYS

Documentary Feature

    ANNE FRANK REMEMBERED
    THE BATTLE OVER CITIZEN KANE
    FIDDLEFEST
    HANK AARON: CHASING THE DREAM
    TROUBLESOME CREEK: A MIDWESTERN

Documentary Short

    JIM DINE: A SELF-PORTRAIT ON THE WALLS
    THE LIVING SEA
    NEVER GIVE UP: THE 20TH CENTURY ODYSSEY OF HERBERT ZIPPER
    ONE SURVIVOR REMEMBERS
    THE SHADOW OF HATE

Film Editing

    APOLLO 13
    BABE
    BRAVEHEART
    CRIMSON TIDE
    SEVEN

Foreign Language Film

    ALL THINGS FAIR (Sweden)
    ANTONIA'S LINE (The Netherlands)
    DUST OF LIFE (Algeria)
    O QUATRILHO (Brazil)
    THE STAR MAKER (Italy)
  
Makeup

    BRAVEHEART
    MY FAMILY, MI FAMILIA
    ROOMMATES

Musical or Comedy Score

    THE AMERICAN PRESIDENT
    POCAHONTAS
    SABRINA
    TOY STORY
    UNSTRUNG HEROES

Dramatic Score

    APOLLO 13
    BRAVEHEART
    NIXON
    IL POSTINO (THE POSTMAN)
    SENSE AND SENSIBILITY

Short Film (Animated)

    THE CHICKEN FROM OUTERSPACE
    A CLOSE SHAVE
    THE END
    GAGARIN
    RUNAWAY BRAIN

Short Film (Live Action)

    BROOMS
    DUKE OF GROOVE
    LIEBERMAN IN LOVE
    LITTLE SURPRISES
    TUESDAY MORNING RIDE

Sound

    APOLLO 13
    BATMAN FOREVER
    BRAVEHEART
    CRIMSON TIDE
    WATERWORLD

Sound Effects Editing

    BATMAN FOREVER
    BRAVEHEART
    CRIMSON TIDE

Visual Effects

    APOLLO 13
    BABE
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