VISUAL EFFECTS - "Independence Day" was full of special f/x and seen by millions, but nothing it offered was particularly new and exciting. "Dragonheart" featured an amazing computer-generated dragon, but the film didn't stick around in theatres very long. Everyone who saw "Twister" was amazed at its recreation of one of nature's deadliest forces. My Pick: "Dragonheart". My Prediction: "Twister".
ORIGINAL DRAMATIC SCORE - "The English Patient", "Hamlet", and "Michael Collins" all featured traditional, lush scores and each could easily win this category. However, riding high as the favorite in other categories, "The English Patient" could sweep aside its competition on its way to multiple Oscars. "Shine" and "Sleepers" are the least likely to take this category. My Pick: "The English Patient". My Prediction: "The English Patient".
ORIGINAL MUSICAL/COMEDY SCORE - Because Disney was shunned in the Original Song category, an unprecedented occurrence in the past several years, "The Hunchback of Notre Dame" stands a good chance of winning this award. The other nominees are: "Emma", "The First Wives Club", "James and the Giant Peach", and "The Preacher's Wife". My Pick: "The Hunchback of Notre Dame". My Prediction: "The Hunchback of Notre Dame".
ORIGINAL SONG - After "Evita" took the Golden Globe for Best Comedy or Musical, it was a major surprise that the film wasn't nominated for Best Picture by the Academy. To apologize for their oversight, the Academy will award to Madonna a statuette for the song "You Must Love Me" from that film. The other nominees are: "Because You Loved Me" from "Up Close & Personal", "For the First Time" from "One Fine Day", "I Finally Found Someone" from "The Mirror Has Two Faces" and "That Thing You Do!" from "That Thing You Do!". My Pick: "Because You Loved Me". My Prediction: "You Must Love Me".
DIRECTOR - Milos Forman, director of "The People vs. Larry Flint" must be considered a long-shot because his film wasn't nominated. Scott Hicks for "Shine" and Mike Leigh for "Secrets and Lies" weren't as artful as their peers Joel Coen for "Fargo" and Anthony Minghella for "The English Patient" and so the former are less likely to win than the latter. My Pick: Anthony Minghella. My Prediction: Anthony Minghella.
SUPPORTING ACTRESS - Although Joan Allen for "The Crucible" most deserves the award and Juliette Binoche for "The English Patient" would normally have been the front-runner, Lauren Bacall for "The Mirror Has Two Faces" will most likely win because, to quote Chevy Chase from an Oscar telecast several years ago, she's "old and hasn't won one yet". The also-rans are Barbara Hershey for "The Portrait of a Lady" and Marianne Jean-Baptiste for "Secrets & Lies". My Pick: Joan Allen. My Prediction: Lauren Bacall.
SUPPORTING ACTOR - Cuba Gooding Jr. for "Jerry Maguire" and William H. Macy for "Fargo" are the favorites in this category. James Woods for "Ghosts of Mississippi" doesn't stand a ghost of a chance. Armin Mueller-Stahl for "Shine" and Edward Norton for "Primal Fear" won't be taking home the gold, either. My Pick: William H. Macy. My Prediction: Cuba Gooding Jr.
ACTRESS - Frances McDormand for "Fargo" has this category all sewn up, and deservedly so, as the only sure-thing pick of the night. Those not needing to prepare an acceptance speech are Brenda Blethyn for "Secrets & Lies", Diane Keaton for "Marvin's Room", Kristin Scott Thomas for "The English Patient", and Emily Watson for "Breaking the Waves". My Pick: Frances McDormand. My Prediction: Frances McDormand.
ACTOR - Tom Cruise for the surprisingly good "Jerry Maguire" can't be ruled out. Ralph Fiennes for "The English Patient" would have stood a better chance if he hadn't spent much of the film behind severe burn make-up that masked his emotions. Woody Harrelson for "The People vs. Larry Flynt" just doesn't stand a chance while Billy Bob Thornton for "Sling Blade" is only slightly more likely to take home the statuette. Geoffrey Rush for "Shine" may not be a sure bet, but the odds are high enough to risk a wager. My Pick: Tom Cruise. My Prediction: Geoffrey Rush.
PICTURE - Right away we can rule out the little-seen "Secrets & Lies". "Jerry Maguire" is very much a "Hollywood film" and the fact that it stars Mr. Smirk, Tom Cruise, doesn't help its chances. "Fargo", with its quirky sense of humor, is in the running but is likely to be eclipsed by the remaining nominees. Although "Shine" has its supporters, the film really isn't Oscar material. That leaves "The English Patient" with a slight edge over the others. If it wins, it'll be the driest Best Picture since 1987's "The Last Emperor". My Pick: "Fargo". My Prediction: "The English Patient"